3/6/2018
HYPOTHESIS TESTING (I)
BIOSTATISTICS - PIC OF THE DAY!
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LAST WEEK…
Any random sample can be used to calculate a
point estimate of population proportion
The larger sample size will provide a more
precise range (CI) in which the population
proportion is located
With a small margin error E, one needs a
larger sample size to estimate the population
proportion at 1-α confidence level
BUILDING STATISTICAL MODELS
Z-TEST & ONE-SAMPLE T-TEST
HLSC 2P07
Winter 2018
Dr. Divya Joshi, Ph.D.
Department of Health Sciences
Brock University
Email: djoshi@brocku.ca
Room: AS 345
Office Hours: Friday 2:00-4:00 pm
Theoretically, when monohybrid peas with green
pods were crossed with monohybrid peas with
yellow pods, 25% of peas would be expected to
have yellow pods. If you saw 26.2% of 580 offspring
peas were with yellow pods, can you conclude that?
1. The theory is not right because the peas with yellow
pods is more than expected
2. The theory is right because the difference between
the expected and the actual one is close
3. It is uncertain whether the theory is right or not at
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the moment 4
STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING
When answering research questions
We may find differences between groups
Or relationships between variables
Examples?
There are different explanations for these…
Need to use statistical hypothesis testing
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HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis: is a claim or statement about
the population parameter
- Statistical hypothesis testing is a procedure for
testing this claim
- Made to establish a testable condition
- May or may not be true
- 2 hypotheses are required
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2. RESEARCH/ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS
The statement that the parameter has a value that
somehow differs from the null hypothesis
Statement of what must be true if the null
hypothesis is false
H1: If H0 is not true, then the alternative must be
that there is an (association, difference,
relationship, etc…), between …….
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TAILS
One tailed test:
Right-tailed test: The critical region is
in the extreme right region (tail)
under the curve
Hypothesis is written as: H1 > …
Left-tailed test: The critical region is
in the extreme left region (tail) under
the curve
Hypothesis is written as: H1 < …
Is it better to do a one-tail test or a two-tail test?
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Note: Always use equal symbol (=) when writing H0
but < or > or ≠ in H1
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1. NULL HYPOTHESIS
A statement that the value of a
population parameter is equal to some
claimed value
Implies no difference
H0: There is no (association, difference,
relationship, etc…) between …..
TAILS
Two tailed test: The critical region is in the two
extreme regions (tails) under the curve
Hypothesis is written as: H1 ≠ …
Recall: What
percent of area lies
with ±2 standard
deviations?
EXAMPLES OF HYPOTHESIS
1. The proportion of peas with yellow pods is equal to 0.25
2. The mean height of adult males is greater than 183 cm
3. Based on an observational study with data collected
from a random sample, the prevalence of autism
spectrum disorder is 21% among children born very
prematurely, which is roughly three times higher than
that among children (population) born normally
4. A study found that children from families that had home
renovations during the past year had elevated blood
lead level (70 umol/L). The safe blood lead levels in the
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children population should be less than 10 umol/L.
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CRITICAL REGION, SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL, & CRITICAL VALUE
Critical region: The set of all values of the test
statistic that cause us to reject the null hypothesis
Significant level (α): The probability that the test
statistic will fall in the critical region when null
hypothesis is actually true
Critical value: Any value that separates the critical
region from the values of the test statistic that do
not lead to rejection of the null hypothesis
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
Type I error - occurs when we believe that there
is a genuine effect in our population, when in
fact there isn’t.
The probability is the α-level (usually .05)
Type II error - occurs when we believe that
there is no effect in the population when, in
reality, there is.
The probability is the β-level (often .2)
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THE POWER SIGNIFICANCE

Is a probability/chance to reject a false null Findings must be due to something other
hypothesis than chance alone
But how do we know if the difference or
Which factors affect power?
relationship is significant?

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P-VALUE EFFECT SIZE

The probability of getting a value of the test A standardized measure of the size of
statistic that is at least as extreme as the one an effect:
representing the sample data, assuming that Standardized = comparable across
the null hypothesis is true studies
Not (as) reliant on the sample size
Helps you determine if your results are
Allows people to objectively
significant evaluate the size of observed effect
All hypothesis tests ultimately use a p-value to
weigh the strength of the evidence Effect size measures?
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What does a p-value of 0.01 indicate?

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4 STEPS OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING 3 METHODS TO MAKE A CONCLUSION

1. Hypothesis, Tail, and Significance Level Test statistic > critical value

2. Test statistic and its calculation P-value < significance level (α = 0.05)

3. Determine if the calculated statistic is significant

Confidence interval includes the likely value of
the parameter
4. Conclusion - reject or fail to reject H0

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TESTING A CLAIM ABOUT ONE SAMPLE Example – Genetic Experiment

PROPORTION
An experiment involving peas resulted in 580 offspring,
Requirements: with 26.2% of the offspring peas having yellow pods.
1. The sample observations are a simple random sample Mendel claimed that the proportion of peas with yellow
2. The conditions for a binomial distribution are satisfied pods should equal 25%
3. The conditions np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5 are both satisfied
̂ −
Test statistics: =

n = sample size or number of trials

̂ = x/n (sample proportion)
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p = population proportion (used in the null hypothesis) 22

q=1-p

Is this hypothesis true?

Is this sample from this population?
2. Assumption Check & Test Statistic

A sample of Normal as an approximatation to Binomial

Hypothesis:
n = 580 25% yellow pods np = 580*0.25 = 145 ≥ 5
26.2% in population nq = 580*0.75 = 435 ≥ 5

Identify the following: ̂ −

=
n= Ơ =√ (0.25 x 0.75)/580 = 0.018
̂=
p=
. .
1. What is H0 & H1? Significance level? = = 0.67
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. ∗ . 24

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4. Conclusion
3. Determine if the calculated z is significant (Table A-2)
H0: P = 0.25
Using p-value: H1: P ≠ 0.25

P (z > 0.67) = 1 – P(z < 0.67) = 1 – 0.7486 = 0.2514 p-value: 0.5028 > α = 0.05
P = 2*0.2514 = 0.5028 > α = 0.05 critical value: 0.67 < 1.96 not in the rejection

Using critical value for 95% CI, 2 tail test: Fail to reject the null hypothesis. It is possible to have
26.2% of peas with yellow pods from a population
0.67 < 1.96 not in the rejection
that 25% of peas with yellow pods.

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USING CI TO EXAMINE H0 USING CI TO EXAMINE H0

∗ . ∗ .#$%
= / E = 1.96 A sample of Hypothesis:
%
n = 580 25% yellow pods
E = 0.036 26.2% in population

-E<P< +E 95% CI: (0.226, 0.298)

When 95% confidence interval derived from a random sample
95% CI: (0.226, 0.298) includes the hypothesized parameter (e.g., p=0.25) the null
hypothesis (H0: p=0.25) is not rejected
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However, if the 95% CI doesn’t include the hypothesized
parameter, the null hypothesis then is rejected

TESTING A CLAIM ABOUT A ONE POPULATION MEAN TESTING A CLAIM ABOUT A MEAN: & KNOWN
Which Method to use? Requirements:
A simple random sample
Normal dist?
The value of the population SD - & is known
yes no The population is normally dist. or n>30
& known? n>30 ?
yes
Test statistic ,1 − 2
Z-method
no
no
0= &
yes

,- = sample mean
t-method
x-µ
z= µ = Population mean
σ/√n .
Nonparameter methods = standard error
x-µ 29 / 30
t=
s/√n

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Example: Population of human body temperatures Null & alternative hypothesis?

Is this hypothesis true?
Tail of test and significance level?
Is this sample from this population? What type of test is this?
Hypothesis:
Test statistic?
A sample of
n = 106 µ = 98.6 oF
,- = 98.20 oF σ = 0.62 oF
In population

Test the claim if the sample mean is significantly

different from the population mean
Find the probability of getting a mean of 98.6oF or lower
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,1 − 2 98.2 − 98.6 Margin of Error

0= & 0=
0.62
106
Confidence interval
Z = -6.64
critical value zα/2 = -1.96

P(z= -6.64) < 0.0001

Since the test statistic z = -6.64, which is located in the

rejection region and the p-value is much less than
α=0.05 (< 0.0001), the null hypothesis is rejected 33 34

TESTING A CLAIM ABOUT A MEAN: & NOT KNOWN Example: Population of human body temperatures
Requirements:
Is this hypothesis true?
A simple random sample Is this sample from this population?
The value of the population SD - & is not known A sample of Hypothesis:
The population is normally dist. or n>30 n = 12 µ = 98.6 oF
,- = 98.39 oF σ = not known
Test statistic s = 0.535 In population
,1 − 2
;= < Test if the sample mean is significantly less than the
population mean
Find the probability of getting a mean of 98.2oF or lower
s = sample SD 35 36

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Test statistic
Null & alternative hypothesis?
Tail of test and significance level? ,1 − 2 98.39 − 98.6
;= ;=
< 0.535
What type of test is this?
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Test statistic?
t = -1.36

d.f. = 11, the critical value = -1.796

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Finding p-value

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What would the critical value be for a two-tail test?

MARGIN OF ERROR & CONFIDENCE INTERVALS SAS - TESTING A CLAIM ABOUT A MEAN: & NOT
KNOWN (One Sample t-test)
Two-Tailed One-Tailed
Test Test Mean weight in population is 62 kgs. Is there a
Significance Level 0.01 99% 98% significant difference in mean weight between the
0.05 95% 90% sample and the population?
0.10 90% 80%
What type of a test is this? Hypothesis, Requirements…?
90% CI: (98.11, 98.67)
Conclusion?
Conclusion:
Population mean of 98.6 is contained with the CI 41 42

so we fail to reject the null hypothesis

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HOMEWORK
Chapter 8
8.2 - # 8, 16, 20, 22, 26, 32, 38
8.3 - # 2, 16
8.4 - # 6, 12
8.5 - # 4, 10, 20

Conclusion?
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