METODO DE GUMBEL

AÑO Q MAXIMO Q2
1988 9.37 87.758
1989 9.54 91.052
1990 9.41 88.588
1991 9.49 90.101
1992 9.19 84.443
1993 9.28 86.158
1994 9.00 80.957
1995 9.19 84.539
1996 9.46 89.460
1997 9.37 87.758
1998 9.55 91.162
1999 9.41 88.629
2000 9.50 90.189
2001 9.19 84.526
2002 9.29 86.244
2003 9.00 81.037
2004 9.20 84.729
2005 9.47 89.662
2006 9.55 91.183
2007 9.29 86.298
2008 9.35 87.416
2009 9.07 82.350
2010 9.88 97.628
2011 10.25 105.076
2012 11.06 122.250
2013 11.43 130.569
2014 9.37 87.758
2015 9.55 91.162
2016 9.41 88.629
2017 55.29 3056.940
TOTAL 331.417 5694.251
1) Calculo del promedio de caudales:

∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑖 331.417
𝑄𝑚 = = ⟹ 𝑸𝒎 = 𝟏𝟏. 𝟎𝟒𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔
𝑁 30

2) Calculo de desviación estándar de los caudales:

∑𝑛 𝑄𝑖 2 − 𝑁𝑄𝑚 2 5694.251 − (30)(11.047)2

𝜎𝑄 = √ 𝑖=1 =√
𝑁−1 30 − 1

⟹ 𝝈𝑸 = 𝟖. 𝟑𝟕𝟑

3) Calculo de los coeficientes 𝜎𝑁 , 𝑌̅𝑁 :

𝐷𝑒 𝑙𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑎 6.13, 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑁 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠, 𝑠𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑒:

̅ 𝑵 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟑𝟔
𝒀 ; 𝝈𝑵 = 𝟏. 𝟏𝟏𝟐

4) Obtención de la ecuación del caudal máximo:

𝜎𝑄
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑄𝑚 − (𝑌̅ − ln 𝑇)
𝜎𝑁 𝑁

𝟖.𝟑𝟕𝟑
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 11.047 − 1.112 (0.536 − ln 30)

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝟑𝟐. 𝟔𝟐𝟏 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

1
5) Calculo de 𝜙 = 1 − 𝑇

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → 𝝓 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟔𝟕

6) Calculo del intervalo de confianza.

Como para todos los casos 𝜙 > 0.90 se utiliza la ecuación

1.14 ∗ 𝜎𝑄
∆𝑄 = ±
𝜎𝑁

1.14 × 8.373
∆𝑄 = ± ⇒ ∆𝑸 = ± 𝟖. 𝟓𝟖𝟒 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔
1.112

7) Calculo del caudal de diseño

𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 + ∆𝑄

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → 𝑸𝒅 = 𝟒𝟏. 𝟐𝟎𝟒 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

8) Persistencia

Resultados:

T Qmax Qd
30.000 32.621 41.204
50.000 36.467 45.051
75.000 39.520 48.104
85.000 40.462 49.046
95.000 41.300 49.883
 METODO DE NASH
1) Ordenar en forma descendente los valores de los cándales.

m Q MAXIMO T T/(T-1) X Q*X Q2 X2

1 55.290 31.000 1.033 -1.846 -102.091 3056.940 3.409
2 11.427 15.500 1.069 -1.538 -17.576 130.569 2.366
3 11.057 10.333 1.107 -1.355 -14.977 122.250 1.835
4 10.251 7.750 1.148 -1.222 -12.525 105.076 1.493
5 9.881 6.200 1.192 -1.117 -11.036 97.628 1.248
6 9.549 5.167 1.240 -1.030 -9.831 91.183 1.060
7 9.548 4.429 1.292 -0.954 -9.110 91.162 0.910
8 9.548 3.875 1.348 -0.887 -8.472 91.162 0.787
9 9.542 3.444 1.409 -0.827 -7.891 91.052 0.684
10 9.497 3.100 1.476 -0.772 -7.329 90.189 0.596
11 9.492 2.818 1.550 -0.720 -6.839 90.101 0.519
12 9.469 2.583 1.632 -0.672 -6.367 89.662 0.452
13 9.458 2.385 1.722 -0.627 -5.930 89.460 0.393
14 9.414 2.214 1.824 -0.584 -5.493 88.629 0.340
15 9.414 2.067 1.938 -0.542 -5.100 88.629 0.293
16 9.412 1.938 2.067 -0.501 -4.718 88.588 0.251
17 9.368 1.824 2.214 -0.462 -4.327 87.758 0.213
18 9.368 1.722 2.385 -0.423 -3.964 87.758 0.179
19 9.368 1.632 2.583 -0.385 -3.606 87.758 0.148
20 9.350 1.550 2.818 -0.347 -3.243 87.416 0.120
21 9.290 1.476 3.100 -0.309 -2.867 86.298 0.095
22 9.287 1.409 3.444 -0.270 -2.507 86.244 0.073
23 9.282 1.348 3.875 -0.230 -2.139 86.158 0.053
24 9.205 1.292 4.429 -0.190 -1.745 84.729 0.036
 25 9.195 1.240 5.167 -0.147 -1.350 84.539 0.022
26 9.194 1.192 6.200 -0.101 -0.929 84.526 0.010
27 9.189 1.148 7.750 -0.051 -0.468 84.443 0.003
28 9.075 1.107 10.333 0.006 0.056 82.350 0.000
29 9.002 1.069 15.500 0.076 0.681 81.037 0.006
30 8.998 1.033 31.000 0.174 1.562 80.957 0.030
Total 331.417 -17.853 -260.131 5694.251 17.626

2) Calculo de 𝑄𝑚 y 𝑋𝑚

∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑖 331.417
𝑄𝑚 = = ⟹ 𝑸𝒎 = 𝟏𝟏. 𝟎𝟒𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔
𝑁 30

∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 −17.853
𝑋𝑚 = = ⟹ 𝑿𝒎 = −𝟎. 𝟓𝟗𝟓
𝑁 30

3) Calculo los parámetros a y b:

∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 𝑄𝑖 − 𝑁𝑋𝑚 𝑄𝑚 −20.131 − (30)(−0.595)(11.047)

𝑏= =
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖2 − 𝑁𝑋𝑚
2 17.626 − 30(−0.595)2

⇒ 𝒃 = −𝟖. 𝟗𝟖𝟓

𝑎 = 𝑄𝑚 − 𝑏. 𝑥𝑚 = 11.047 − (−8.985)(−0.595)

⇒ 𝒂 = 𝟓. 𝟕𝟎𝟎

4) Calculo del caudal Máximo.

𝑇 30
𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑎 + 𝑏. Log 𝐿𝑜𝑔 𝑇−1 = 5.700 + (−8.985)𝐿𝑜𝑔 (𝐿𝑜𝑔 30−1)

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → 𝑸𝒎𝒂𝒙 = 𝟐𝟐. 𝟏𝟔𝟎 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

5) Calculo de las desviaciones estándar y covarianza.

 𝑆𝑋𝑋 = 𝑁 ∑ 𝑋𝑖 2 − (∑ 𝑋𝑖)2 = 30(17.626) − (−17.853)2 = 𝟐𝟏𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟓

 𝑆𝑄𝑄 = 𝑁 ∑ 𝑄𝑖 2 − (∑ 𝑄𝑖)2 = 30(5694.251) − (331.417)2 = 𝟔𝟎𝟗𝟗𝟎. 𝟑𝟒𝟑

 𝑆𝑋𝑄 = 𝑁 ∑ 𝑄𝑖 𝑋𝑖 − (∑ 𝑄𝑖 )(∑ 𝑋𝑖 ) = 30(−260.131) − (331.417)(−17.853) = −𝟏𝟖𝟖𝟕. 𝟐𝟎𝟏

6) Calculo del intervalo de confianza.

𝑆𝑄𝑄 1 1 𝑆𝑋𝑄 2
∆𝑄 = ±2 × √ 2
+ (𝑋 − 𝑋𝑚 ) ∙ ∙ ∙ (𝑆𝑄𝑄 − )
𝑁 2 (𝑁 − 1) 𝑁 − 2 𝑆𝑋𝑋 𝑆𝑋𝑋

60990.343 1 1 (−1887.201)2
∆𝑄 = ±2√ 2
+ (𝑋 + 0.595)2 × × × (60990.343 − )
30 (30 − 1) 30 − 2 210.045 210.045

𝑻
𝑷𝒂𝒓𝒂: 𝑿 = 𝑳𝒐𝒈 𝑳𝒐𝒈
𝑻−𝟏

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠; 𝑋 = −1.8320 → ∆𝑸 = 𝟕. 𝟒𝟐𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

7) Calculo del caudal de diseño

𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 + ∆𝑄

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → 𝑸𝒅 = 𝟐𝟗. 𝟓𝟖𝟖 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

METODO DE LEBEDIEV
 𝑸 𝑸 𝑸
AÑO Q MAXIMO −𝟏 ( − 𝟏)𝟐 ( − 𝟏)𝟑
𝑸𝒎 𝑸𝒎 𝑸𝒎

1988 9.368 -0.1520 0.0231 -0.0035126

1989 9.542 -0.1362 0.0186 -0.0025289
1990 9.412 -0.1480 0.0219 -0.0032424
1991 9.492 -0.1408 0.0198 -0.0027894
1992 9.189 -0.1682 0.0283 -0.0047569
1993 9.282 -0.1598 0.0255 -0.0040789
1994 8.998 -0.1855 0.0344 -0.0063867
1995 9.195 -0.1677 0.0281 -0.0047170
1996 9.458 -0.1438 0.0207 -0.0029753
1997 9.368 -0.1520 0.0231 -0.0035126
1998 9.548 -0.1357 0.0184 -0.0025002
1999 9.414 -0.1478 0.0218 -0.0032296
2000 9.497 -0.1403 0.0197 -0.0027645
2001 9.194 -0.1678 0.0281 -0.0047225
2002 9.287 -0.1594 0.0254 -0.0040468
2003 9.002 -0.1851 0.0343 -0.0063449
2004 9.205 -0.1668 0.0278 -0.0046386
2005 9.469 -0.1429 0.0204 -0.0029158
2006 9.549 -0.1356 0.0184 -0.0024945
2007 9.290 -0.1591 0.0253 -0.0040269
2008 9.350 -0.1537 0.0236 -0.0036284
2009 9.075 -0.1786 0.0319 -0.0056929
2010 9.881 -0.1056 0.0112 -0.0011775
2011 10.251 -0.0721 0.0052 -0.0003749
2012 11.057 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000000
2013 11.427 0.0343 0.0012 0.0000405
2014 9.368 -0.1520 0.0231 -0.0035126
2015 9.548 -0.1357 0.0184 -0.0025002
2016 9.414 -0.1478 0.0218 -0.0032296
2017 55.290 4.0048 16.0387 64.2324947
TOTAL 331.417 0.0001 16.658 64.136

1) Obtención del caudal medio

 ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑖 331.417
𝑄𝑚 = = ⇒ 𝑸𝒎 = 𝟏𝟏. 𝟎𝟒𝟕 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔
𝑁 30

2) Calculo del coeficiente de variación 𝐶𝑣

𝑄
∑𝑁 𝑖
𝑖=1(𝑄 − 1)
2
16.658
𝐶𝑣 = √ 𝑛
=√ ⇒ 𝑪𝒗 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟒𝟓
𝑁 30

3) Determinación del coeficiente de asimetría 𝐶𝑠

 De la ecuación.

𝑄𝑖
∑𝑁
𝑖=1( − 1)3 64.136
𝑄𝑚
𝐶𝑠 = 3 = ⇒ 𝑪𝒔 = 𝟓. 𝟏𝟔𝟕
𝑁𝐶𝑣 30(0.745)3

 Considerando que la avenida es producida por una tormenta.

𝐶𝑠 = 3𝐶𝑣 ⇒ 𝑪𝒔 = 𝟐. 𝟐𝟑𝟔

De estos valores se escoge el mejor:

∴ 𝑪𝒔 = 𝟓. 𝟏𝟔𝟕

4) Obtención del coeficiente K (tabla 6.17)

𝟏
𝑷=
𝑻

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 ; 𝑃 = 0.033 = 3.3% 𝑦 𝐶𝑠 = 5.167 ⟹ 𝑲 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟓𝟎

5) Calculo de 𝐸𝑟 .
  𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 ; 𝑃 = 3.3% 𝑦 𝐶𝑣 = 0.745 ⟹ 𝑬𝒓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟕𝟎

6) Calculo del caudal máximo.

𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑄𝑚 (𝑘𝐶𝑣 + 1) = 𝟕𝟏. 𝟐𝟐𝟖(𝑘 × 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔𝟗 + 1)

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 ; 𝐾 = 1.950 ⟶ 𝑸𝒎𝒂𝒙 = 𝟐𝟕. 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

7) Calculo del intervalo de confianza; 𝐴 = 0.85

± 𝐴 𝐸𝑟 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 0.85 × 𝐸𝑟 × 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥

∆𝑄 = =±
√𝑁 √30

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → ∆𝑸 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟏𝟓 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔

8) Calculo de caudales de diseño:

𝑄𝑑 = 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 + ∆𝑄

 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑇 = 30 𝑎ñ𝑜𝑠 → 𝑸𝒅 = 𝟐𝟕. 𝟖𝟏𝟓 𝒎𝟑 /𝒔