Pemodelan Proses Bisnis

K Candra Brata
andra.course@gmail.com
Introduction to Business
Process Simulation
from Process Description to
Analysis
Process Model

 Process models provide

 Shared agreement about what a process does
 “Stand-back and critique” of current process practice
 Static analysis of costs (processing, resource)

Business processes are often too complex and

dynamic to be analyzed only with simple tools like
diagram, flowcharts and spreadsheets.
 Experiment
How process work?
Effectiveness of running processes are affected by “stochastic” behavior of:

 Arrival rate of customers

The rate and variability of new transaction arrivals into the process (Start Event)
 Service rates
The speed and variability of service times associated with each task in the process
 The number of “performers” available at any given time to perform the tasks.
 The relative frequency of different paths taken.
(The business rules used to govern these (gateway) “splits”.
 Stokastik vs
deterministik.
model stokastik: mengandung unsur acak/ probabilitas/ peluang.
Sehingga outputnya menghasilkan penaksiran dengan devisiasi
(variance).

Contoh :
 model kedatangan customer di teller bank.
 model kedatangan siswa di kelas.

model deterministik: pasti. Tidak memiliki variable random dalam

inputnya sehingga outputnya pun bersifat pasti.
 Queue

We all experience “queues” (waiting for resources to service our needs/requests)

Common examples:

 Telephone queues (“You’re number XX to be serviced; holding time estimated to be YY

minutes)
 Line queues (bank withdrawals, ticket-taking at events, boarding an airplane, toll booth
queues)
 Online server queues (slow responses, “try again later,” 404 errors, lagged responses
to “Click Next,” etc.)
 Queue
How to optimize queue?
 Altering the rate/variability of new “customer” arrivals
 Reducing variability in service times.
 Assigning more capacity (performers) to servicing tasks.
 Changing the “queue discipline”.
How people queue and form lines.
Queue
Queue
Queue Example
 Simulation

Simulation is a tool to evaluate the performance of a model, under different

configurations and over long periods of real time, to reduce the chances of
failure to meet specifications, to eliminate unforeseen bottlenecks, to prevent
under or over-utilization of resources (including people and money), and to
optimize system performance.
 Experiment
definition
Randomness is simulated by the use of probabilities for sequence flows and
token routing and also by using statistical distributions to reflect variability in
process times of activities etc.

To make sure results are valid, the simulation needs be run for long enough to
yield random behavior without chance (consider the scenario of tossing a coin or
rolling a dice multiple times).

Provision should be made to compare results from the same scenario, but different
run lengths or replications.

The required run length to yield usable outcomes depends on the process model
structure, amount of variability and the objective; consequently, a single
recommended run length cannot be provided.

A replication shares the same scenario configuration and runs for the same length
of time, but uses an alternative random stream.
 Experiment

Basic steps in evaluating a process design :

1. Model the process (e.g. BPMN)

2. Building the simulation model
3. Running the simulation
4. Analyzing simulation output with performance measures
 Process duration, cost stats and histograms
 Waiting times (per activity)
 Resource utilization (per resource)
5. Evaluation of alternative scenarios
Simulation Level
 Level 1
Process validation
Making sure the process passes through all the sequence flows, and
behaves as expected.

Resources, processing times and costs are not included in this level.

When validating a Process Model the simulation results will show if:
•Gateways are synchronized.
•Messages are synchronized.
•Decisions probabilities are correctly assigned.
•Routing behaves as expected.
•All tokens have ended.
 Level 1
Process validation
Defining the input data required for this level.

Max. arrival count: Define the number of token instances the process will
generate (or trigger).
 Level 1
Process validation
Defining the input data required for this level.
Gateways routing: Inclusive and exclusive Gateways have activation probabilities.
Probabilities are values between 0 and 100% (based on historical data).
Select the Gateway and click the scroll arrow icons ( ) to set the probabilities.

If you do not define probabilities for the paths, they will be equally distributed.
 Level 1
Process validation
Run The simulation

When running a simulation, the following analysis data will display:

• Number of completed instances.
• Number of token instances created.
• Number of instances that activate each shape.
• Number of finished instances.
 Level 1
Process validation
Results and Analyzing the results
• Name: Identifies the specific BPM shape for which the results are displayed.
• Type: Identifies the element type of the BPM shape.
• Instances completed: Indicates how many instances were processed during the execution
of the simulation.
 Level 2
Time analysis
Defining the input data required for this level
Arrival interval time: Defines the time interval between token instances
generation.
Instances will be created until the max. arrival count is reached.
 Level 2
Time analysis
Defining the input data required for this level
Processing times: Defines the amount of time an Activity or Event needs to
process a token. That is, it defines a service time period from the moment a token
arrives at an Activity or Event until it is executed.
When the process contains embedded sub-processes, regard the following:

 If the sub-process has activities, assign time to each activity and not to the sub-
process in order to calculate the process time from the execution of each activity.
 If the sub-process does not have activities, assign a estimated process time to it.
 Level 2
Time analysis
Defining the input data required for this level
 Level 2
Time analysis
Running the simulation
the following analysis data will display:
• Number of tokens completed.

• Average time per activity.

• Total processing time per activity

 Level 2
Time analysis
Results

For the Time Analysis level, the results of the simulated outcome will contain the
following information:

• Name: Identifies the specific BPM shape for which the results are displayed.
• Type: Identifies the element type of the BPM shape.

• Instances completed: Indicates how many instances were processed.

• Instances started: Indicates how many instances arrived at the shape.

• Minimum time: Indicates the minimum processing time of the shape.

• Maximum time: Indicates the maximum processing time of the shape.

• Average time: Indicates the average processing time of the shape.

• Total time: Indicates the total time employed to process the shape.
 Level 2
Time analysis
Results
 Level 3
Resource analysis
This analysis shows the potential effect of resource constrains on process
performance.
Remember that a Resource is defined as a person, money, equipment, or
space necessary for the execution of a specific task.

evaluate the following performance measures:

• Sub- or over-utilization of resources.

• Total resources costs.
• Total activity costs.
• Delays (time an activity waits for a resource).
• A more accurate expected cycle time.
Level 3
Resource analysis
Level 3
Resource analysis
Level 3
Resource analysis Assign Resource for each Task Activity
Level 3 Run Simulation, the following analysis data will display.
Resource analysis •Resource usage status.

•Number of instances completed.

•Average time per activity.

•Total processing time per activity

•Average waiting time per activity.

Level 3 Run Simulation, the following analysis data will display.
Resource analysis •Resource usage status.

•Number of instances completed.

•Average time per activity.

•Total processing time per activity

•Average waiting time per activity.

Level 3
Resource analysis
 Level 4
Calendar analysis
In real scenarios, processes are subjected to ever changing conditions in the availability of
resources. Holidays, weekends, shifts and breaks restrict and define the true performance of
a process.

Predicts how a process will perform during dynamic periods of time, such as shifts, days
schedules or weeks.

At the end of this level you will obtain more accurate information on:

•Sub- or over-utilization of resources.

•Total resources costs.

•Total activity costs.

•Delays (time an activity waits for a resource).

•Expected cycle time.

 Level 4
Calendar analysis
Defining the input data required for this level

Calendars: A Calendar defines resource capacity over certain periods of times.

 Level 4
Calendar analysis
Defining the input data required for this level

Calendars assignment:
 Level 4
Calendar analysis
Result
 Simulation Level
Process validation
Checks to see if the process is “simulation ready” Assumes equal
likelihood splits on gateways unless you change these; infinite resources
on service tasks Reports errors if problems detected in process diagram.
Time analysis
Wants the arrival (start event) and service (task)
distribution and timing values
Runs simulation assuming “infinite” performer resources
Resource analysis
Assign performers resources to tasks (number available)
Simulation now limited to who and how many are
available to do work
Calendar analysis
Add-in when (what days, times) resources are available
over a day, week or month
What-If Analysis
 What if analysis
• What if analysis is a powerful tool for improvement that evaluates
how strategic, tactical or operational changes may impact the
business .

• Through different scenarios you will be able to perform a true-to-life

analysis of your processes without putting your business operation at
risk.

will be able to answer questions like:

• How would the processing time of a case decrease if the number of

available resources is doubled?
• What would be the cost/benefit rate of reducing the process time in a
specified activity?
• What would be the effect of altering the working shift configuration in
the operational cost and service level?
Create New
Scenario
Create New
Scenario
Change Resources
in new Scenario
Compare
Scenario
Thanks..
We are
moving..

http://j.gs/18164083/ppb
 Evaluation:
Process Mining

Info PROJECT AKHIR Business Activity Monitoring

M. Weske: Business Process Management,

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007
Evaluation

Tugas kelompok. Enactment:

Operation Enactment
Administration
and Design &
Design:
Business Process
Identification and
Modeling
Monitoring Stakeholders Analysis
Maintenance Analysis:
Validation
Simulation
Configuration Verification

Kelompok terdiri dari 4 orang.

Configuration:
System Selection

Analisis sebuah perusahaan,

Implementation
Test and Deployment

Fig 1.5. Business process lifecycle

syarat min punya CV.

Amati proses bisnis yang terjadi.
Buat Pemodelan terkait sebuah proses
utama. (as-is)

Re-engnineering Proses yang ada jika

menurut kalian kurang efisien. (to-be)

Lakukan simulasi dan analisis hasilnya.