Produccion de Plata

año enero febrero marzo abril mayo junio julio

1978 107700 95700 108300 108900 110300 109500 109700
1979 110800 108400 109500 109000 110700 109900 110200
1980 111200 114600 119700 113500 112800 116100 111100
1981 109500 95500 99300 107600 111300 107800 116800
1982 119500 110400 119300 120100 124200 126500 131200
1983 134600 116400 139900 142500 152800 144800 155700
1984 157800 142400 145800 152700 155800 148400 143200
1985 164300 151800 173300 159100 172100 170400 172100
1986 165700 146900 130400 146800 171300 173300 177900
1987 162800 158700 169300 171900 162800 168800 172400
1988 163800 163300 180000 158500 144600 164500 147000
1989 162200 144900 168400 161900 158600 166400 153200
1990 159900 156700 165500 158100 157900 160700 159900
1991 159800 163400 158500 161300 157500 163000 158000
1992 135800 127200 134400 139800 134100 145000 141800
1993 130600 123000 137300 126000 123600 142400 149700
1994 139296 132784 140285 141335 148523 150699 150801
1995 154700 145700 161500 155600 148200 153000 162300
1996 160500 159700 163900 157800 158500 160500 171100
1997 158953 163181 177924 170575 175881 178655 180988
1998 169209 161914 169248 156102 154307 160943 179152
1999 167703.9 160439.78 178697 173753.81 172445.85 174774.98 174461.14
2000 171814.97 172751.63 177789.58 182592.5 190493.83 184434.03 188140.83
2001 204203.14 186913.96 200438.41 193475.99 207005.97 203334.23 222681.64
2002 239505.57 217223.17 248469.52 226963.51 238405.74 243433.4 235405.01
2003 257044.86 238494.35 237066.25 240855.22 255566.96 240100.79 233366.32
2004 245283.58 244158 253013.07 264082.87 252598.47 247514.34 252897.6
2005 275900.51 257778.59 249470.84 264733.74 247156.09 264162.76 258265.56
2006 263264.3 256533.17 286638.03 279089.21 304356.19 290588.19 305440.69
2007 278031.22 265339.71 283198.22 277942.06 269769.36 275678.09 307878.22
2008 281688.42 268614.12 290129.78 291766.89 310777.74 299665.1 308005.51
2009 304321.17 307034.35 326932.97 319257.25 331720 327145.66 327133.37
2010 299724.49 274512.23 296877.2 316334.88 303502.54 324926.4 312429.74
2011 294578.33 265983.84 267351.97 257820.17 295442.84 273297.23 287253.35
2012 288022.68 266260.91 299427.12 276110.59 292573.07 279563.83 300339.92
2013 269643.05 272086.34 295370.01 285482.92 309794.96 303931.23 308084.78
2014 273941.35 284563 291581.46 296721.25 341068.96 321037.5 335996.6
2015 308520.18 296334.88 335627.69 296357.47 290369.95 347564.15 363399.19
2016 334005.28 367396.26 370020.63 347796.19 384058.73 367455.91 356532.36
2017 331338.15 325924.93 359314.9 361456.81 371251.93 407193.96 366591.44
 agosto setiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
95300 108000 110100 108500 111900
110500 110200 111800 109400 109400
119300 123000 124700 113300 114600
120500 116800 113800 116000 108700
126400 124000 121600 116900 118800
161000 145100 145200 146000 155400
160200 157400 153700 156500 160400
172100 167400 172100 168500 167500
175900 177400 183000 181300 176000
161600 168000 170200 166300 168200
97600 169600 122300 35700 103600
130700 169000 172300 170600 174000
162000 163100 161800 164400 157500
161400 161200 161100 161500 159900
139900 135100 155300 146300 133000
149700 156400 145000 141600 145500
153287 144489 152968 150196 163537
160300 165200 163200 169400 170100
164200 164200 169300 168500 171800
190246 172752 175075 168333 163976
176478 174754 181233 173660 167571
173996.24 170922.18 180279.38 186529.29 184904.3
203940.78 200358.34 206906.42 198568.33 204562.96
229130.29 226846.84 248444.24 221125.38 227513.69
245264.18 236451.7 251049.24 234987.49 252480.45
237424.12 234111.23 246394.79 247875.86 255385.65
277658.78 255670.33 256261.99 252328.64 258494.23
278981.85 261338.42 286612.11 275630.44 285641.93
285589.11 278330.93 301437.15 296120.71 323273.57
295502.38 320812.32 320869.39 296991.69 309449.26
324018.22 311094.04 312569.46 331270.44 356331.27
348515.7 334862.88 337049.58 332778.18 325957.28
316972.06 290071.75 302565.55 290049.79 312498.83
300412.11 282348.23 305039.97 289110.23 300223.84
294418.29 293260.06 290320.99 294984.42 305575.04
315559.37 309806.04 317612 337638.46 351870.87
321589.64 321919.62 315686.87 322944.3 341096.67
349892.93 377034.07 367923.16 362256.27 406287.78
382168.56 372407 378447.02 354026.59 360041.07
año enero febrero marzo abril
2010 299724.48846 274512.227072 296877.202783 316334.880233
2011 294578.33016 265983.844047 267351.973128 257820.169741
2012 288022.68261 266260.906441 299427.118531 276110.585626
2013 269643.05401 272086.337106 295370.007502 285482.91503
2014 273941.35348 284562.997116 291581.459947 296721.24785
2015 308520.18352 296334.880633 335627.688138 296357.469618
2016 334005.27806 367396.259436 370020.632834 347796.189672

Año Mes Produccion Total Movil Prom. Movil

1 299724.49
2 274512.23
3 296877.20
4 316334.88
5 303502.54
6 324926.40 3640465.4642 303372.1220125
2010
7 312429.74 3635319.3059 302943.275487917
8 316972.06 3626790.9228 302232.5769025
9 290071.75 3597265.6932 299772.141097917
10 302565.55 3538750.9827 294895.915223583
11 290049.79 3530691.2822 294224.27352025
12 312498.83 3479062.1036 289921.841967833
1 294578.33 3453885.7199 287823.809987583
2 265983.84 3437325.7666 286443.81388325
3 267351.97 3429602.2484 285800.18736825
4 257820.17 3432076.6701 286006.389178833
5 295442.84 3431137.1096 285928.09246775
6 273297.23 3418862.1174 284905.176451833
2011
7 287253.35 3412306.4699 284358.872489083
8 300412.11 3412583.5323 284381.961021917
9 282348.23 3444658.6777 287054.8898055
10 305039.97 3462949.0936 288579.09112925
11 289110.23 3460079.324 288339.943668333
12 300223.84 3466345.9286 288862.160715917
1 288022.68 3479432.495 289952.707914
2 266260.91 3473438.6746 289453.222881917
 3 299427.12 3484350.4994 290362.541615667
4 276110.59 3469631.5214 289135.960114667
5 292573.07 3475505.7122 289625.476018083
6 279563.83 3480856.912 290071.4093355
2012
7 300339.92 3462477.2834 288539.773619167
8 294418.29 3468302.7141 289025.226174583
9 293260.06 3464245.6031 288687.133588833
10 290320.99 3473617.9325 289468.161039167
11 294984.42 3490839.8172 290903.318103
12 305575.04 3515207.2187 292933.934894
1 269643.05 3522952.0768 293579.339731917
2 272086.34 3544093.1564 295341.09636825
3 295370.01 3560639.1354 296719.927946333
4 285482.92 3587930.1428 298994.178567417
5 309794.96 3630584.1784 302548.68153225
6 303931.23 3676880.0038 306406.666985083
2013
7 308084.78 3681178.3033 306764.858607167
8 315559.37 3693654.9633 307804.580274667
9 309806.04 3689866.4157 307488.867978417
10 317612.00 3701104.7486 308425.395713417
11 337638.46 3732378.7487 311031.562392417
12 351870.87 3749485.0183 312457.084857833
1 273941.35 3777396.8373 314783.069775583
2 284563.00 3783427.1116 315285.592634917
3 291581.46 3795540.6982 316295.058180833
4 296721.25 3793615.5712 316134.630932583
5 341068.96 3778921.4169 314910.118078833
6 321037.50 3768147.2192 314012.26827025
2014
7 335996.60 3802726.0493 316893.83744025
8 321589.64 3814497.9328 317874.827733333
9 321919.62 3858544.161 321545.34674925
10 315686.87 3858180.3828 321515.031896583
11 322944.30 3807481.3766 317290.114717333
12 341096.67 3834008.0232 319500.668600583
1 308520.18 3861410.619 321784.218251167
2 296334.88 3889713.9049 324142.825412
3 335627.69 3944828.3557 328735.69631125
4 296357.47 3997064.6406 333088.7200495
5 290369.95 4036376.6053 336364.717107833

2015
 6 347564.15 4101567.7171 341797.309755833
2015
7 363399.19 4127052.8116 343921.067634167
8 349892.93 4198114.1904 349842.849201083
9 377034.07 4232507.1351 352708.92792575
10 367923.16 4283945.8552 356995.48793025
11 362256.27 4377634.6378 364802.88648075
12 406287.78 4397526.3981 366460.533175083
1 334005.28 4390659.5618 365888.296815833
2 367396.26 4422935.1938 368577.932818583
3 370020.63 4418308.1222 368192.343519917
4 347796.19 4428831.9864 369069.332201583
5 384058.73 4420602.3113 368383.525942833
6 367455.91 4374355.6041 364529.633671833
2016
7 356532.36
8 382168.56
9 372407.00
10 378447.02
11 354026.59
12 360041.07

Calculando el indice de estacional o temporal

Año enero febrero marzo abril

2010 -- -- -- --
2011 1.0198 0.9263 0.9344 0.9018
2012 0.9952 0.9191 1.0328 0.9529
2013 0.9195 0.924 0.9978 0.9585
2014 0.8735 0.9033 0.9233 0.9384
2015 0.9622 0.9175 1.0281 0.8956
2016 0.9121 1.0004 1.0044 0.9435

Uso de las medias modificadas

Mes enero febrero marzo abril

media modificada 1.8945 1.84345 1.98235 1.8683

Indice Constante Indice

Mes
Desajustado ajuste Temporal
 1 189.45% 0.500 0.948
2 184.35% 0.500 0.9224
3 198.24% 0.500 0.9919
4 186.83% 0.500 0.9348
5 205.79% 0.500 1.0297
6 199.32% 0.500 0.9973
7 206.89% 0.500 1.0352
8 205.36% 0.500 1.0275
9 200.87% 0.500 1.0051
10 204.51% 0.500 1.0233
11 201.69% 0.500 1.0092
12 214.96% 0.500 1.0756
2398.22% 1200%

Calculo de la constante de estacionalidad

Suma deseada 1200%
Suma de indices 2398.22%

Constante de estacionalidad 0.500

Desestacionalizacion de la serie de tiempo

Produccion Produccion
X Año Mes Real Desastacionalizada

-41.5 1 299724.48846 316165.072212025

-40.5 2 274512.22707 297606.490754553
-39.5 3 296877.20278 299301.545299929
-38.5 4 316334.88023 338398.459812794
-37.5 5 303502.54342 294748.512599786
-36.5 6 324926.40366 325806.080078211
2010
-35.5 7 312429.73602 301806.159212713
-34.5 8 316972.06013 308488.622992701
-33.5 9 290071.74947 288599.890030843
-32.5 10 302565.54696 295676.289417571
-31.5 11 290049.79169 287405.659617519
-30.5 12 312498.83426 290534.431256973
-29.5 1 294578.33016 310736.635191983
-28.5 2 265983.84405 288360.628845403
-27.5 3 267351.97313 269535.208315354
-26.5 4 257820.16974 275802.492234703
-25.5 5 295442.84298 286921.28094008
-24.5 6 273297.22503 274037.125271232
2011
-23.5 7 287253.35225 277485.850322643
-22.5 8 300412.10687 292371.88016837
-21.5 9 282348.23129 280915.561924187
-20.5 10 305039.96869 298094.369870028
-19.5 11 289110.23115 286474.664241974
-18.5 12 300223.84207 279122.203485496
-17.5 1 288022.68261 303821.395157173
-16.5 2 266260.90644 288661.000044449
-15.5 3 299427.11853 301872.284031656
-14.5 4 276110.58563 295368.619625588
-13.5 5 292573.07345 284134.285183063
-12.5 6 279563.8296 280320.695481801
2012
-11.5 7 300339.91863 290127.43298976
-10.5 8 294418.28649 286538.47833382
-9.5 9 293260.0561 291772.018799124
-8.5 10 290320.99068 283710.535205707
-7.5 11 294984.42199 292295.305186286
-6.5 12 305575.04188 284097.286982149
-5.5 1 269643.05401 284433.601279536
-4.5 2 272086.33711 294976.514642238
-3.5 3 295370.0075 297782.042042545
-2.5 4 285482.91503 305394.645945657
-1.5 5 309794.95822 300859.433057201
-0.5 6 303931.2311 304754.067077108
2013
0.5 7 308084.77669 297608.941930062
1.5 8 315559.36612 307113.738320195
2.5 9 309806.03503 308234.041420754
3.5 10 317611.99813 310380.140847259
4.5 11 337638.45757 334560.500963139
5.5 12 351870.86731 327139.147742655
6.5 1 273941.35348 288967.672445148
7.5 2 284562.99712 308502.815607112
8.5 3 291581.45995 293962.556655913

2014
 9.5 4 296721.24785 317416.82482884
10.5 5 341068.95837 331231.386196951
11.5 6 321037.50068 321906.648632307
2014
12.5 7 335996.5957 324571.672815881
13.5 8 321589.64044 312982.618429197
14.5 9 321919.62158 320286.162156004
15.5 10 315686.87115 308498.847991791
16.5 11 322944.30333 320000.300561831
17.5 12 341096.66961 317122.22908981
18.5 1 308520.18352 325443.231559072
19.5 2 296334.88063 321265.048387901
20.5 3 335627.68814 338368.472767416
21.5 4 296357.46962 317027.673960205
22.5 5 290369.95222 281994.709348354
23.5 6 347564.14728 348505.111079916
2015
24.5 7 363399.19151 351042.49565881
25.5 8 349892.92637 340528.395490024
26.5 9 377034.07237 375120.955500945
27.5 10 367923.15601 359545.740260921
28.5 11 362256.26803 358953.892218589
29.5 12 406287.78139 377731.295449052
30.5 1 334005.27806 352326.242677215
31.5 2 367396.25944 398304.704505637
32.5 3 370020.63283 373042.275263635
33.5 4 347796.18967 372054.11817715
34.5 5 384058.73482 372981.193378654
35.5 6 367455.90761 368450.724568335
2016
36.5 7 356532.3552 344409.15300908
37.5 8 382168.5584 371940.202821411
38.5 9 372407.00079 370517.362242563
39.5 10 378447.02019 369829.981617316
40.5 11 354026.59292 350799.239914784
41.5 12 360041.07413 334735.100532726

a= 315008.551455
b= 944.967238348

Pronostico
 Pronostico Pronostico
X Año Mes Desestac. Estaciona.
42.5 1 355169.65908 336700.84
43.5 2 356114.62632 328480.13
44.5 3 357059.59356 354167.41
45.5 4 358004.5608 334662.66
46.5 5 358949.52804 369610.33
47.5 6 359894.49528 358922.78
2017
48.5 7 360839.46251 373541.01
49.5 8 361784.42975 371733.50
50.5 9 362729.39699 364579.32
51.5 10 363674.36423 372147.98
52.5 11 364619.33147 367973.83
53.5 12 365564.29871 393200.96
54.5 1 366509.26594 347450.78
55.5 2 367454.23318 338939.78
56.5 3 368399.20042 365415.17
57.5 4 369344.16766 345262.93
58.5 5 370289.1349 381286.72
59.5 6 371234.10214 370231.77
2018
60.5 7 372179.06937 385279.77
61.5 8 373124.03661 383384.95
62.5 9 374069.00385 375976.76
63.5 10 375013.97109 383751.80
64.5 11 375958.93833 379417.76
65.5 12 376903.90557 405397.84

Al hacer una comparacion para el año 2017 los datos reales que se muestran en la hoja plata Datos se puede observ
variacion mas grande en junio tambien abril donde las variaciones son 48271.18 y 26794.15 respectivamente

real enero febrero

2017 331338.14669 325924.926771
pronosticado
2017 336700.83681 328480.131320077
Se puede concluir q las producciones seran casi parecidas para los dos siguientes años ademas tambien se ob
 mayo junio julio agosto setiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
303502.543424 324926.403662 312429.736 316972.06 290071.749 302565.547 290049.792 312498.834
295442.842984 273297.225033 287253.352 300412.107 282348.231 305039.969 289110.231 300223.842
292573.073453 279563.829604 300339.919 294418.286 293260.056 290320.991 294984.422 305575.042
309794.958219 303931.231096 308084.777 315559.366 309806.035 317611.998 337638.458 351870.867
341068.958367 321037.500681 335996.596 321589.64 321919.622 315686.871 322944.303 341096.67
290369.952216 347564.14728 363399.192 349892.926 377034.072 367923.156 362256.268 406287.781
384058.734822 367455.907612 356532.355 382168.558 372407.001 378447.02 354026.593 360041.074

Pro_Mo_Cen %_Valor_Real
-- -- -- -- -- -- --
--
--
--
--
--
303157.69875 103.06%
302587.926195 104.75%
301002.359 96.37%
297334.028161 101.76%
294560.094372 98.47%
292073.057744 106.99%
288872.825978 101.98% 1.0198 0.9263 0.9344 0.9018 1.0331 0.9575
287133.811935 92.63%
286122.000626 93.44%
285903.288274 90.18%
285967.240823 103.31%
285416.63446 95.75%
284632.02447 100.92%
284370.416756 105.64%
285718.425414 98.82%
287816.990467 105.98%
288459.517399 100.23%
288601.052192 104.03%
289407.434315 99.52% 0.9952 0.9191 1.0328 0.9529 1.011 0.9645
289702.965398 91.91%
289907.882249 103.28%
289749.250865 95.29%
289380.718066 101.10%
289848.442677 96.45%
289305.591477 103.81%
288782.499897 101.95%
288856.179882 101.52%
289077.647314 100.43%
290185.739571 101.65%
291918.626499 104.68%
293256.637313 91.95% 0.9195 0.924 0.9978 0.9585 1.03 0.9982
294460.21805 92.40%
296030.512157 99.78%
297857.053257 95.85%
300771.43005 103.00%
304477.674259 99.82%
306585.762796 100.49%
307284.719441 102.69%
307646.724127 100.70%
307957.131846 103.14%
309728.479053 109.01%
311744.323625 112.87%
313620.077317 87.35% 0.8735 0.9033 0.9233 0.9384 1.081 1.0209
315034.331205 90.33%
315790.325408 92.33%
316214.844557 93.84%
315522.374506 108.10%
314461.193175 102.09%
315453.052855 106.51%
317384.332587 101.32%
319710.087241 100.69%
321530.189323 98.18%
319402.573307 101.11%
318395.391659 107.13%
320642.443426 96.22% 0.9622 0.9175 1.0281 0.8956 0.8675 1.025
322963.521832 91.75%
326439.260862 102.81%
330912.20818 89.56%
334726.718579 86.75%
339081.013432 102.50%
342859.188695 105.99%
346881.958418 100.87%
351275.888563 107.33%
354852.207928 103.68%
360899.187206 100.38%
365631.709828 111.12%
366174.414995 91.21% 0.9121 1.0004 1.0044 0.9435 1.0416 1.0027
367233.114817 100.04%
368385.138169 100.44% 450000.00

368630.837861 94.35% 400000.00

368726.429072 104.16% 350000.00
366456.579807 100.27% 300000.00
--
250000.00
--
200000.00
--
150000.00
--
100000.00
--
-- 50000.00

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Col umn D Col umn G Col umn G

mayo junio julio agosto setiembre octubre noviembre diciembre

-- -- 1.0306 1.0475 0.9637 1.0176 0.9847 1.0699
1.0331 0.9575 1.0092 1.0564 0.9882 1.0598 1.0023 1.0403
1.011 0.9645 1.0381 1.0195 1.0152 1.0043 1.0165 1.0468
1.03 0.9982 1.0049 1.0269 1.007 1.0314 1.0901 1.1287
1.081 1.0209 1.0651 1.0132 1.0069 0.9818 1.0111 1.0713
0.8675 1.025 1.0599 1.0087 1.0733 1.0368 1.0038 1.1112
1.0416 1.0027 -- -- -- -- -- --

mayo junio julio agosto setiembre octubre noviembre diciembre

2.05785 1.99315 2.0689 2.05355 2.00865 2.04505 2.01685 2.1496
 Produccion
Pronosticada

275792.411063
276737.378302
277682.34554
278627.312778
279572.280017
280517.247255
281462.214493
282407.181732
450000
283352.14897
284297.116208
400000
285242.083447
286187.050685
350000

300000
 400000

350000
287132.017923
288076.985162
300000
289021.9524
289966.919638
250000
290911.886877
291856.854115 200000
292801.821353
293746.788592 150000
294691.75583
295636.723068 100000
296581.690307
297526.657545 50000
298471.624784
299416.592022 0
0 2 4 6 8
300361.55926
301306.526499
302251.493737
303196.460975
304141.428214
305086.395452
306031.36269
306976.329929
307921.297167
308866.264405
309811.231644
310756.198882
311701.16612
312646.133359
313591.100597
314536.067835
315481.035074
316426.002312
317370.96955
318315.936789
319260.904027
320205.871266
321150.838504
322095.805742
323040.772981
323985.740219
324930.707457
325875.674696
326820.641934
327765.609172
328710.576411
329655.543649
330600.510887
331545.478126
332490.445364
333435.412602
334380.379841
335325.347079
336270.314317
337215.281556
338160.248794
339105.216032
340050.183271
340995.150509
341940.117748
342885.084986
343830.052224
344775.019463
345719.986701
346664.953939
347609.921178
348554.888416
349499.855654
350444.822893
351389.790131
352334.757369
353279.724608
354224.691846
 n la hoja plata Datos se puede observar que la variacion de lo pronosticado con los datos reales varian en cantidades un poco va
18 y 26794.15 respectivamente

marzo abril mayo junio julio

359314.898633 361456.8086 371251.93 407193.96 366591.44

354167.410853 334662.6634 369610.33 358922.78 373541.01

os siguientes años ademas tambien se observa que en los meses de octubre , noviembre y diciembre son los meses en donde mas se produ
1.0306 1.0475 0.9637 1.0176 0.9847 1.0699

1.0092 1.0564 0.9882 1.0598 1.0023 1.0403

1.0381 1.0195 1.0152 1.0043 1.0165 1.0468

1.0049 1.0269 1.007 1.0314 1.0901 1.1287

1.0651 1.0132 1.0069 0.9818 1.0111 1.0713

1.0599 1.0087 1.0733 1.0368 1.0038 1.1112

 -- -- -- -- -- --

12 14
mn G
8 10 12 14
n cantidades un poco variables , siendo la

48271.1815

26794.1452
es en donde mas se produce plata