Brown Sugar: By: Anirban Basu

Deriving Satisfaction through

Sage Policy Group, Inc.
Data Analysis

March 29 th, 2018

On Behalf of
The 2018 Carroll County
Economic Outlook

Disclaimer: Any resemblance

between the presentation’s title
and the speaker is purely coincidental.
Get off
of My
Cloud
 IPSOS Global Confidence Index, March 2018

Source: IPSOS
 OECD Business Confidence Index –Select Regions/Countries
February 2000 - February 2018
104.0
OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States China
103.0
102.0
101.0
100.0
99.0
98.0
97.0
96.0
95.0
94.0
Feb-00
Aug-00

Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06

Feb-08
Aug-08

Feb-10
Aug-10

Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16

Feb-18
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02

Feb-07
Aug-07

Feb-09
Aug-09

Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12

Feb-17
Aug-17
The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its
current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the
difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions. Source: OECD
 Global Monetary Policy Tightening/Easing
As of February 2018

The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers

fifty-four large countries—mainly those that
target inflation in some manner. Tightening
policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue.
The more a country has raised (lowered) rates,
in percentage points, from the most recent
trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the
shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate
target is the overnight interbank rate, with
exceptions indicated.

Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Global Monetary Policy Tracker

 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2018 Projected
Advanced Economies 2.3%
Euro Area 2.2%
Spain 2.4%
Germany 2.3%
France 1.9%
United Kingdom 1.5%
Italy 1.4%
Japan 1.2%
Australia 2.9%
Canada 2.3%
United States 2.7%
Emerging Market & Developing Economies 4.9%
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.3%
Emerging & Developing Europe 4.0%
Russia 1.7%
Emerging & Developing Asia 6.5%
China 6.6%
India 7.4%
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan 3.6%
Latin America & the Caribbean 1.9%
Mexico 2.3%
Brazil 1.9%
2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.9% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
2017 Growth (Estimate) Annual % Change
World: 3.7% Euro Area: 2.4%
United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.8%
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018
Start Me Up
 0
60
100
140

20
40
120

80
2005
Mar-08

Source: Conference Board

Aug-08
Jan-09
2005 – March 2018

Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
where 1985 = 100
March 2018 = 127.7

May-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
 105.0

85.0
90.0
110.0

100.0

80.0
95.0
Feb-86
Feb-87
Feb-88
Feb-89
Feb-90
Feb-91
Feb-92
Feb-93

Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, 1986 -2018

Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
107.6

Feb-16
Feb. 2018:

Feb-17
Feb-18
 Paint It Black – Corporate Profits
U.S. Corporate Profits After Tax*
$ Billions
$2,000
2017Q4: $1.77 Trillion
$1,600

$1,200

$800

$400

$0
1977Q2
1978Q4

2002Q4
1954Q4

1960Q4

1969Q4

1972Q4

1983Q2

1987Q4

1996Q4

2004Q2

2013Q2

2017Q4
1950Q2

1974Q2

1984Q4

2014Q4
1951Q4

1966Q4

1980Q2

1995Q2

2001Q2

2010Q2
1959Q2

1971Q2

1981Q4

1993Q4

1998Q2

2011Q4
1956Q2

1965Q2

1989Q2

1992Q2

2005Q4
1963Q4

1968Q2

1975Q4

1986Q2

1990Q4

1999Q4

2007Q2
2008Q4

2016Q2
1953Q2

1957Q4

1962Q2

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *With Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and
Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj); Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
 Job Openings (Millions)

2.0
4.0

3.0
7.0

5.0
6.0
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-03
U.S. Job Openings

Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
January 2001 through January 2018

Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan. 2018:

Jan-16
Jul-16
6.3M Openings

Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
 Thousands

-1000
-400
-200
200
400

-800
0

-600
Feb-02 600
Jun-02
Oct-02
Feb-03
Jun-03

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oct-03
Feb-04
Jun-04
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Net Change in U.S. Jobs

Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
February 2002 through February 2018

Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
+313K

Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
February 2018:

Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
 National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector, February 2017 v. February 2018
Professional and Business Services 495
Education and Health Services 449
Leisure and Hospitality 325
Construction 254
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 251
Manufacturing 224
Financial Activities 143
Other Services 95
Mining and Logging 58
All told 2,281K jobs gained
Government 49
Information -62
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Thousands, SA

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 89%
93%

88%
91%

90%
92%
94%
2000Q4
2001Q2
2000 – 2017

2001Q4
2002Q2
2002Q4
2003Q2
2003Q4
2004Q2
2004Q4

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

2005Q2
2005Q4
2006Q2
2006Q4
2007Q2
2007Q4
2008Q2
2008Q4
2009Q2
2009Q4
U.S. Labor Force Participation: Men Ages 25 -34

2010Q2
2010Q4
2011Q2
2011Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
2015Q2
2015Q4
2016Q2
88.7%

2016Q4
2017Q2
2017Q4
 Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
February 2017 v. February 2018 Absolute Change

Education and Health Services 13,800

Manufacturing 2,100

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,200

Mining, Logging, and Construction 400

Professional and Business Services -200

Other Services -900

Financial Activities -1,100

MD Total:
Government -1,500
+4.0K; +0.1%
Information -1,900 US Total (SA):
Leisure and Hospitality -7,900 +2,281K; +1.6%

-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series

MD added 15,616 jobs between February 2017 and February 2018.
 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
February 2017 v. February 2018 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 IDAHO 3.4 18 HAWAII 1.4 34 ILLINOIS 0.8
2 NEVADA 3.2 18 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.4 34 OHIO 0.8
2 UTAH 3.2 18 NEW MEXICO 1.4 37 MINNESOTA 0.7
4 WASHINGTON 2.9 18 PENNSYLVANIA 1.4 37 WISCONSIN 0.7
5 COLORADO 2.4 18 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.4 39 IOWA 0.6
6 ARIZONA 2.3 23 RHODE ISLAND 1.3 39 MAINE 0.6
6 CALIFORNIA 2.3 24 MICHIGAN 1.2 41 CONNECTICUT 0.5
6 OREGON 2.3 24 MISSISSIPPI 1.2 41 KANSAS 0.5
6 TEXAS 2.3 24 NEW YORK 1.2 43 KENTUCKY 0.4
10 FLORIDA 2.0 27 MASSACHUSETTS 1.1 44 ARKANSAS 0.2
10 GEORGIA 2.0 27 MONTANA 1.1 44 NEBRASKA 0.2
12 OKLAHOMA 1.9 29 INDIANA 1.0 46 MARYLAND 0.1
13 WYOMING 1.7 29 MISSOURI 1.0 46 VERMONT 0.1
14 NORTH CAROLINA 1.6 29 WEST VIRGINIA 1.0 48 LOUISIANA 0.0
14 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.6 32 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 0.9 49 DELAWARE -0.1
16 NEW JERSEY 1.5 32 VIRGINIA 0.9 50 ALASKA -0.4
16 TENNESSEE 1.5 34 ALABAMA 0.8 51 NORTH DAKOTA -1.6

U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
February 2017 v. February 2018 Absolute Change

Education and Health Services 10,600

Professional and Business Services 3,900

Mining, Logging, and Construction 2,600

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,800

Financial Activities 1,400

Government 400 Baltimore MSA Total:

Manufacturing
+17.2K; +1.3%
300
MD Total (SA):
Other Services -500
+4.0K; +0.1%
Information -600 US Total (SA):
Leisure and Hospitality -2,700 +2,281K; +1.6%

-4,000 -1,000 2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
February 2017 v. February 2018 Absolute Change

Professional and Business Services 16,600

Leisure and Hospitality 9,700

Education and Health Services 7,600

Other Services 4,700

Mining, Logging, and Construction 4,100

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,800

Financial Activities 2,700

DC MSA Total:
Information 100 +44.8K; +1.4%
Manufacturing -200 US Total (SA):
+2,281K; +1.6%
Government -3,300

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Employment Growth, 25 Largest Metros (NSA)
February 2017 v. February 2018 Percent Change
Rank MSA % Rank MSA %
1 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 3.9 14 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 1.8
2 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.5 15 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 1.6
3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 3.1 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
16 1.4
4 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 3.0 DC-VA-MD-WV MSA

5 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 2.7 17 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 1.3

5 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 2.7 17 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 1.3
7 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.6 19 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 1.2
8 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA 2.4 20 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA 0.9
9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 2.3 20 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 0.9
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
10 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 2.2 20 0.9
MSA
11 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 2.0 23 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 0.8
12 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 1.9 24 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.7
12 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 1.9 25 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 0.4

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey
 Unemployment Rates, 25 Largest Metros (NSA)
January 2018
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 3.0 13 4.3
MSA
2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 3.2 15 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 4.4
3 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 3.4 15 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 4.4
3 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA 3.4 17 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 4.5
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro
5 3.5 17 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 4.5
NECTA
6 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 3.6 19 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 4.6
6 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 3.6 20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 4.7
8 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.7 20 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4.7
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
9 3.8 22 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 4.8
DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
10 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 3.9 23 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 4.9
10 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 3.9 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-
23 4.9
12 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 4.0 MD MSA
13 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 4.3 25 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 5.4

U.S. Unemployment Rate: 4.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.
 12-Month Net Change

-3,000
3,000

-5,000
-1,000
0
1,000

-4,000
-2,000
2,000
4,000
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Carroll County Employment
January 2002 through January 2018

Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
+1,027 Jobs (+1.1%)
Jan. 2017 v. Jan. 2018:

Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Gimme
Shelter
 Rate

5%
6%

1%
9%
10%

2%
4%
3%
7%
8%
Mar-95

Source: Freddie Mac

Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98

*Week ending 3/22/2018

Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
March 1995 through March 2018*

Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
15 -Year & 30 -Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
15-yr

Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
30-yr

Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
4.45%

3.91%
 U.S. Households: Owner v. Renter Occupied, 1965 -2017
# of Household Heads
• From 2006-2017 the (Millions)
number of households 80.0 75.4 76.2
headed by owners 70.0
remained relatively flat. Homeowners
60.0
• At the same time, the
number of households 50.0 43.1
renting their home 36.2 Renters
40.0 34.2
increased significantly
(+26%). 30.0
21.3
• The share of renter 20.0
households also
10.0
increased—from 31.2%
of households in 2006 to 0.0
1965

1991
1993
1995
1967
1969

1997
1999
1971
1973
1975

2017
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985

2001
2003
2005
1987
1989

2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
36.1% in 2017.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Pew Research Center

 66%
70%

60%

58%
62%
64%
68%
1980Q4
1981Q4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1982Q4
1980 Q4 -2017 Q4

1983Q4
1984Q4
1985Q4
1986Q4
1987Q4
1988Q4

*NSA: not seasonally adjusted

1989Q4
U.S. Homeownership (NSA)

1990Q4
1991Q4
1992Q4
1993Q4
1994Q4
1995Q4
1996Q4
1997Q4
1998Q4
1999Q4
2000Q4
2001Q4
2002Q4
2003Q4
2004Q4
2005Q4
2006Q4
2007Q4
2008Q4
2009Q4
2010Q4
2011Q4
2012Q4
2013Q4
2014Q4
64.2%
2017Q4:

2015Q4
2016Q4
2017Q4
 $ Billions (SAAR)

$50
$60

$0
$10
$20
$40

$30
$70
Jan-93
Jan-94

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
January 1993 through January 2018

Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction

Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
 S& P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
January 2018, 12 -Month Percentage Change
12% 11.1%
10.2%
10%
12-Month % Change

7.6% 7.6% 7.6%

8% 6.9%
6.4% 6.5%
6% 5.2% 5.3%
4.0%
4%
2.4% 2.4%
2%

0%

Source: Standard & Poor’s

 Thousands, SAAR

200
400
800
1,600

0
1,000

600
1,200
1,400
1,800
Feb-99 2,000
Aug-99

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
February 1999 through February 2018

Aug-05
U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts

Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
February 2018: 902K

Aug-17
Feb-18
 Months of Inventory by Maryland County
February 2018
20

15
Carroll County:
3.7 months; down from
10 4.5 months a year ago

Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)

Maryland : 3.8 Months

Source: Maryland Association of Realtors (MAR)
 19 th

Nervous
Breakdown
 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR)

-8%
6%

-6%
0%

-10%
2%
4%

-4%
-2%
1990Q4 8%
1991Q3
1992Q2
1993Q1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

1993Q4
1994Q3
1995Q2
1990 Q4 through 2017 Q4*

1996Q1
1996Q4
Gross Domestic Product

1997Q3

*3 rd (Final) Estimate
1998Q2
1999Q1
1999Q4
2000Q3
2001Q2
2002Q1
2002Q4
2003Q3
2004Q2
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
2014Q1
2014Q4
2015Q3
2016Q2
2017Q4: +2.9%

2017Q1
2017Q4
 One-month Percent Change

-0.5%
1.0%

-1.0%
0.0%
1.5%

-1.5%
0.5%
Aug-07

Source: Conference Board

Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
August 2007 through February 2018

Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index

Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
where 2016: 100

May-16
Aug-16
February 2018: 108.7

Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
 Savings Rate (%)

0.0
10.0

2.0
4.0
12.0

8.0

6.0
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
U.S. Saving Rate, January 2005 – January 2018
(Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income)

May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
3.2%

May-16
Sep-16
January 2018:

Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
 Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF)

• According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt

has reached an all-time high in 2016;

• At $215 trillion, global debt—including household, government, and

corporate—now represents 325% of global GDP;

• Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy:

• “sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private
deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery”

Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.
 50

0
10
20
40

30
Feb-80
Feb-81
Feb-82
Feb-83
Feb-84
Feb-85
Feb-86
Feb-87
Feb-88
Feb-89
Feb-90
Feb-91
Feb-92
Feb-93
Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-96

Source: Robert J. Shiller Data used in his book, "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press.
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio, 1980 -2018

Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
33.41

Feb-15
Feb. 2018:

Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
 $8,000
$20,000

$16,000

$0
$4,000
$12,000
3/1/14

Source: CoinMarketCap.com
5/1/14
7/1/14
9/1/14
11/1/14
1/1/15
3/1/15
5/1/15
7/1/15
9/1/15
11/1/15
1/1/16
Shattered! --- Bitcoin Price, 2014 -2018

3/1/16
5/1/16
7/1/16
9/1/16
11/1/16
1/1/17
3/1/17
5/1/17
7/1/17
9/1/17
$8.21K

11/1/17
3/26/2018:

1/1/18
3/1/18
 Time is on My Side, at least in the Near-Term
• U.S. setting up for best year since
’05. . .;
• Global economy also picking up
momentum, in large measure due
to policymaking;
• Job opportunities are abundant;
• Corporate profitability elevated;
• Consumer and business confidence
has been surging. . .;
• And now tax cuts, including major
reduction in corporate taxes . . .
What could go wrong?;
• A lot can go wrong – that’s always true
– first there are the Black Swan threats:
• “I’m forever blowing bubbles, pretty
bubbles in the air, they fly so high,
nearly reach the sky, and like my
dreams, they fade and die”;
• Where are all the pretty bubbles?
Equity markets? U.S. bond market?
Commercial real estate? Bitcoin?
• 2018 will be fine – better than fine –
2019 might be, too, but beyond that,
potential deleveraging cycle prompted
by a repricing of assets – Bad!!!!
 Thank You
Please follow me on Twitter -- @ sageanirban

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