A preliminary system dynamics analysis of the impacts of

climate change on the rice supply chain in West Nusa

Tenggara, Indonesia

ABSTRACT
The impacts of climate change on agriculture have been felt by some countries across
the world. Negative impacts of climate change on agriculture will be especially harmful
as agriculture in developing countries is directly associated with food security and
livelihood. This study develops a preliminary system dynamics model representing
interaction among climate, and production factors in the rice supply chain. The model
intends to explore the impacts of climate change on the rice supply chain in West Nusa
Tenggara, an Indonesian province. Preliminary simulations are introduced in this
paper to understand how climate change may impact the rice supply chain.

Keywords: climate change; rice supply chain, rice production n, paddy drying, paddy
milling.

1. Introduction
Rice is the staple food for more than a half of the world population (Gnanamanickam,
2009). In the last three decades, the world rice production has doubled (because of its
new varieties) and it is predicted that about 5 billion people will depend on rice by 2025
(Gnanamanickam, 2009). Thus, an increase of the rice production is important and this
is possible to be achieved.

Rice grows well within near its optimum temperature (Yoshida, 1981) with higher
yields near the rice optimum temperature than for either in lower or higher
temperatures. In other words, rice yields gradually increase up to their temperature
thresholds, but its yields tend to decline above the thresholds (Ackerman & Stanton,
2012; Yoshida, 1981).

Since recent maximum temperature is close to the threshold of rice, rice is highly
vulnerable to climate change (Devkota, 2011). A higher yield of crops because of a
higher CO2 concentration is clearly limited (Ackerman & Stanton, 2012), since crops
require other inputs such as nitrogen and water to support photosynthesis. It seems that
positive impacts of climate change on rice (crop) yields such as a higher yield due to a
higher CO2 concentration could be negated by the negative impacts such as a lower
yield due to high maximum temperature.

Climate change and climate variability can influence the rice supply chain. Lower
precipitation and higher temperatures could reduce rice yields so that the rice supply
chain could not provide sufficient rice supply. A higher precipitation could increase
paddy moisture (leads to a longer paddy-drying time), so the rice supply chain may
delay in supplying rice into market. Therefore, this study will investigate impacts of
climate change on the rice supply chain because of rainfall and temperature changes

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with the research question “how will climate change and climate variability affect the
rice supply chain?.

In order to explore impacts of climate change on the rice supply chain, the system
dynamics approach will be combined with a statistical model and climate output
Moreover, statistical models will provide the input of rice yields and climate output
provides climate such as temperature and precipitation. The SD approach is applied as
the SD approach can simulate varied inputs, particularly combination of uncertain
inputs such as climate projections and non-climate to explore impacts of climate change.
For instance, a SD study combines climatic and non-climatic data to estimate impacts of
climate change on economic, system and social systems (Kopainsky, Züllich, & Blanco,
2013).

2. Literature review
Based on its activity and interaction, Hasan (2010) divides the rice supply chain into
three phases. The first phase includes distribution production inputs such as fertilizer,
seed and pesticide. The second phase consists of rice production in farming areas in
which climate, technology and labour interact each other. Here, despite high quality
production inputs, climate change could affect yield. The third phase is delivering the
milled rice to household and industrial customers. The second phase is more vulnerable
to climate change and climate variability (Hasan, 2010).

Hasan (2010) applies probability functions to estimate the effect of droughts and floods
on the Bangladesh rice supply chain with some limitations. First, study solely focuses
on impact of droughts and floods. Second, the study may be misguided as it does not
apply plausible climate scenarios from IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change). Third, the study ignores other possible effects such as the effects on paddy
moisture and monsoon onset.

Several studies explain impacts of climate change and climate variability on Indonesian
rice. Using a statistical method and variables such as a time trend and sea surface
temperature anomalies, some studies conclude that Indonesian rice is vulnerable to
ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) as ENSO could significantly reduce rainfall and
then it can delay rice planting seasons (Naylor, Falcon, Wada, & Rochberg, 2001, 2002;
Falcon, Naylor, Smith, Burke, & McCullough, 2004; Naylor & Mastrandrea, 2009).

Higher precipitation can cause high paddy moisture (rice is unhusked paddy), leading
to a longer paddy drying time (Daulay, 2005; Suheiti, 2007; Badan Penelitian dan
Pengembangan Pertanian, 2005) and increase paddy drying time from 2-3 days to 4
days (Listyawati, 2007; Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, 2010; Jamal et
al., 2007). Again, La-Nina tends to increase paddy output and start earlier planting
seasons, while El-Nino would decline paddy output and delay planting seasons between
10-30 days (Sumarno et al., 2008, Irianto & Suciantini, 2006).

SD approaches have been be applied to investigate impact of climate change on systems

such as water supply, economic systems and supply chain. One SD study concludes that
climate change can affect quality and availability of water in Turkey (Koca & Sverdrup,
2012). An SD approach was applied to estimate climate change impacts in Burkina Faso

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(Kopainsky et al., 2013) by using climate projections from IPCC AR3, showing that
climate change could negatively affect GDP, agriculture yields and livestock production
in the country. Another SD study finds due to droughts, the sheep slaughter rate tends to
increase, providing more meat supply and a lower meat price (Adl & Parvizian, 2009).
However, a higher meat price occurs in later seasons as a lower stock of sheep, owing to
a higher slaughter rate, can reduce the production capacity.

Although previous-cited SD studies successfully investigate impacts of climate change

and supply chain uncertainties, they focus on one uncertainty dimension (Adl &
Parvizian, 2009) do not discuss effects of climate change on the rice supply chains.

Climate change and variability can negatively affect the rice supply chain. Hence, this
study explores climate change impacts on the rice supply chain. This paper is similar to
Hasan (2010), but makes two new contributions. The first is to use an SD approach and
the second is to assess the effects of both rainfall and temperature change as other
studies (Adl & Parvizian, 2009; Hasan, 2010) solely explore impacts of rainfall change
on the supply chain. Because higher temperatures can negatively influence rice yields
(Wassmann et al.,2009; Jagadish et al.,2010; Welch et al., 2010), impacts of high
temperature on the rice supply chain should be understood.

3. A case study and data

2.1 West Nusa Tenggara at glance
West Nusa Tenggara (WNT) consists of two main islands, Lombok and Sumbawa. This
province is located in eastern Indonesia at 1150 46’ - 1190 5’ East Longitude and 80 10’ -
90 5’ South Latitude (BPS NTB, 2010a). The maximum temperature varies from 30 0C to
330C (the highest temperature is in November), while the minimum temperature varies
between 210C and 240C (BMKG NTB, 2014). The maximum temperature in the rainy
seasons is about 330C, whereas the minimum temperature in the rainy seasons is about
220C (BMKG NTB, 2014). The relative humidity is between 74 % and 81 % with the
annual rainfall is about 1,600 mm (BPS NTB, 2010a).

Figure 1 below shows two maps: Indonesia and West Nusa Tenggara. As shown in
figure 1a, Indonesia consists of 33 provinces from Aceh (in western Indonesia) until
Papua (in eastern Indonesia. West Nusa Tenggara is in southern Indonesia, close to Bali
and East Nusa Tenggara.

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 Figure 1a. Indonesia (source: http://www.indonesiamatters.com/86/indonesian-provinces-map/)

Figure 1b. West Nusa Tenggara (source: http://indonesianlombokernas.com/west-nusa-tenggara/)

Rice is the highest consumed food in WNT (about 25%), following by prepared food
and beverages at about 20% (BPS NTB, 2013). In other words, paddy is a main source
of energy and protein for people in WNT (Pemerintah Nusa Tenggara Barat, 2011). It
also means that rice is important for people healthy in WNT. Likewise, agriculture has a
dominant role in employment and economy in this region. Agriculture covers about 45
% of total employment and 29% of economic production (BPS NTB, 2014). It means
that agriculture production is highly important to support WNT economy.

In conclusion, WNT is an ideal place to investigate the impacts of climate change on the
rice supply chain as rice has some important roles in WNT. Again, minimum
temperature of WNT temperatures has exceeded minimum temperature threshold of
220C (Peng et al., 2004). As climate change tends to increase maximum and minimum
temperatures across the world (IPCC, 2013), the rice supply chain in WNT could suffer
a lower productivity due to higher temperatures. Moreover, rainfall may affect the
amount of rice in WNT as most farmers in WNT (99%) use sunlight to dry their paddy
(BPS, 2012a).
2.2 Data
Data used in this study is drawn from some governmental institutions in Indonesia
including BPS (The Bureau of Indonesian Statistics) and BMKG (The Bureau of

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Indonesia Meteorology and Geophysics). Both institutions are prominent institution in
their field and their data is widely used by some scientists from Indonesia and foreign
countries. Multiple year data of paddy production and related paddy production such as
fertilizer, seed, labour, rice millers and capital is collected from BPS and all climate data
including precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature in term of monthly
indicators is collected from BMKG.

In case of climate variables, seasonal climate is used as seasonal climate tends to affect
crop production. This aims to directly capture effects of climate on paddy production.
Indonesian farmers usually sow their paddy in early wet seasons around September and
the final harvest is around August next year. Due to this, seasonal climate from
September and August (next year) is used in this study.

4. A high-level diagram and a causal loop diagram

Figure 1 shows a simplified high level diagram explaining a system dynamics model in
order to understad effects of climate change on the rice supply chain. In this figure,
there are three types of boxes: brown, red and white boxes. The red box represents an
excluded factors including climate change causes, and government programs. In this
model, causes of climate change such as greenhouse gases and human activity are not
included in the model. Similarly, although government programs such as farmer training
through INSUS and Supra Insus may influence paddy productivity, they are not
embedded in the system dynamics model.

The brown and white boxes, respectively, are major exogenous and major endogeneous
factors that may affect model behaviour. In term of system dynamics, the value of
exogenous factors are set prior to model simulation while values of endogeneous factors
are changing within a simulation. For instance, harvested area and paddy productivity
(both are endogeneous factors) can directly affect paddy yield. Moreover, a higher
number of drying places and rice milling machines may increase, respectively, dried
paddy and milled paddy. The latter means that drying places and rice milling machines
are endogeneous factors.

The brown boxes are exogenous factors indirectly affecting the rice supply chain. For
instance, climate such as rainfall and minimum temperature. Minimum temperature may
decline paddy productivity and rainfall may affect a paddy-drying time and the paddy
moisture. Moreover, non-climate factors may affect paddy productivity such as seed and
labour.

As endogeneous and exogeneous factors cover some factors that may affect the rice
supply chain, this study can appropriately explain behaviour of the rice supply chain
under climate change. Due to this, the system dynamics model has boundary adequacy
in order to understand impacts of climate change on the rice supply chain.

Before turning to a stock-flow diagram, it is useful to describe a simplified causal loop

diagram (please see Appendix 1) describing this study. The causal loop diagram
illustrates some relationships among climatic, non-climatic factors and rice yields. The
diagram can be categorized into three stages: the growing-season, the drying and the
rice milling stages. The growing-season stage includes some interactions among

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climatic and non-climatic factors in the rice-farming area. The drying stage includes
harvesting periods, paddy brokering and paddy drying. The rice-milling stage covers
some activities such as distributing dried paddy to rice millers and paddy-milling.

The growing-season stage illustrates that possible impacts of climate on rice. For
instance, higher minimum temperatures can reduce rice yield (Jagadish et al., 2010) and
precipitation may increase the paddy moisture (Daulay, 2005; Suheiti, 2007; Badan
Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, 2005). This stage also shows that Indonesian
paddy productivity can be increased by some non-climatic factors such as labour
(Ambarinanti, 2007; Nazam, 2009), and seed (Nazam, 2009). In short, regardless of
positive effects of non-climatic factors on paddy productivity, climatic factors could
decrease paddy productivity.

In the drying stage, paddy usually passess some processes such as transferring paddy
from farmers to paddy brokers (loop B3 and B4) and paddy drying. It is likely that the
most important process in this stage is a paddy drying process (Listyawati, 2007). In
this stage, rainfall can increase paddy moisture as rainfall cannot be controlled. A higher
rainfall tends to increase paddy moisture, leading a longer paddy-drying time
(Listyawati, 2007; Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, 2010; Jamal et al.,
2007). As most farmers, at about 99%, use sunlight to dry paddy (BPS, 2012a), a higher
actual moisture and rainfall can directly induce a longer paddy-drying time.

After paddy is dried, it is sent to rice millers (Listyawati, 2007) as shown in loop B6. A
main important activity in the rice-milling stage is rice milling. Rice milling is a process
in which paddy (unhusked rice) is separated from its husk. A higher milling factor leads
to a higher rice supply or a higher milled paddy. Another factor that may influence the
rice supply is rice millers capacity (Hasbullah & Dewi, 2011; Suheiti, 2007) as shown in
loop R1-R3 and loop B7-B9. The higher rice millers capacity, the lower paddy-milling
time will be, leading to a higher milled paddy or a higher rice supply.

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 Government Climate Change Causes such
Programs such as as green house gases
INSUS, Supra Insus

Climate:
Non climate
(production factors): Temperature and Rainfall
labour or seed

Rainfall may influence a

Paddy productivity Minimum temperature may affect paddy drying time
paddy productivity

Fraction of new
Paddy yields Harvested area
farming area

Paddy moisture,
Dried paddy drying days
(paddy with ideal
moisture) A paddy-drying time

Milled paddy Rice milling Fraction of new Drying places

or rice machines milling machines
supply Fraction of new drying
place

System boundary
Figure 1. A simplified
high level diagram of the system dynamics model

5. A system dynamics model

This system dynamics model can be distinguished into 3 sections (a full causal loop can
be seen in Appendix 1). The first section is the farming area for wetland and dryland
farming. The second section is interaction among several factor productions (labour,
capital, animal, seed) and climate through a paddy growing period. The third section is a
section which paddy is dried and the last section is a section which paddy is processed
in rice millers.

The preliminary system dynamics model covers about 150 variables. Among its
variables, there are about 14 lookup functions, 13 levels and 22 rates (flow). Two
lookup functions, for instance, are used to explain impacts of seasonal rainfall on paddy
moisture and August SOI (August Southern Oscillation Index) on the timing of

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monsoon onset. In addition, levels are used to explain major variables such as drying
places, farming area, and milling machines. Rate variables, furthermore, are used to
explain new drying places, new farming rate and new milling machines.

3.1. The farming area

There are two types of the rice farming conducted in WNT (BPS NTB, 2013). The first
type is wetland and the second type is dryland farming. The wetland farming is usually
called wetland farming as this farming has permanent water-logging from some dams.
Conversely, the dryland farming is utilized land without permanent water-logging.
Dryland farming is similar to non-wetland land or rainfed farming. This farming tends
to highly depends on rainfall. The farming area generally increase over time as long as
available land is converted to new farming area through government policy and funding
(BPS NTB, 2013; Dinas Pertanian Nusa Tenggara Barat, 2006, 2012). Again, an
increase of the farming land is appeared in both farming types: wetland and dryland.
In order to increase paddy production of wetland paddy, farmers may increase paddy
yield through a rise of cropping intensity (Nazam, 2009). Although farmers have a fixed
farming area, they can increase harvested area as there are two paddy growing seasons
in a year. For example, a farmer who sows paddy in the first growing season
(September-March) can plant their paddy again in the second growing season (April-
July). The latter is called an increase of paddy production because of a higher cropping
intensity. In contrast, farmers of dryland farming can only sow their paddy one time a
year as sufficient rainfall is only available in rainy seasons.

Another important aspect of climate is timing of monsoon onset. The timing of

monsoon onset is directly affected by rainfall. Indonesian farmers tend to start paddy
cultivation if a cumulative rainfall is about 200 mm (Naylor et al., 2007). In this model,
August SOI (Southern Oscillation Index of August) is directly used as a proxy to
estimate the timing of monsoon onset.

Based on statistical analysis of paddy yield (Appendix 2), it can concluded that paddy
yield in wetland is affected by capital, labour, labour minimum temperature, maximum
temperature and seasonal rainfall. In contrast, the yield of dryland paddy is not
influenced by capital owing to hard soil of dryland farming (Kartaatmadja et al., 2004;
Wirajaswadi, 2004). Because of this, the yield of dryland paddy is directly influenced
by seed, labour, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and seasonal rainfall.

This submodel, a farming area of the system dynamics model, appears to successfully
reproduce behaviour appropriate to the real world. Based on available data from 1976 to
2011 (BPS NTB, 1977-2012a; 1977-2012b), this part of the system dynamics model
results in relatively low MAPEs (Mean Absolute Percentage Errors) and RMSEs (Root
Mean Square Errors) as shown in table 1.

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Parameters MAPE R2
Paddy yield (wetland) 1.85% 99%
Actual paddy production (wetland) 7.51% 89%
Harvested area (wetland) 5% 86%
Paddy yield (dryland) 2.24% 98%
Actual paddy production (dryland) 9% 89%
Harvested area (dryland) 5.9% 93%
Table 1. Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Standard Error (RMSE)
and coefficients of determinant (R2) for submodel of farming area

3.2. The drying area

The amount of dried paddy highly depends on some factors. A higher rainfall may
induce a higher paddy moisture, causing a longer paddy drying time (Listyawati, 2007;
Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, 2010). Moreover, paddy drying needs
sufficient paddy drying area. If there is not sufficient drying area, the amount of dried
paddy may be limited. In short, a paddy drying time mainly depends on some factors
including actual paddy moisture, available drying area and new drying area.

In harvesting seasons, farmers have to dessicate their paddy as high moisture tends to
negatively affect paddy quality (Swastika, 2012). As most farmers in WNT (99%) use
sunlight to dry their paddy (BPS NTB, 2012a), rainfall can significantly affect the
amount of dried paddy. Furthermore, drying capacity is highly affected by drying places
available in rice millers. More rice millers means more available drying place (Manalu,
2009).

After assessment of simulation results and available data from 1991 to 2011 (BPS,
2012b), this submodel successfully has relatively similar patterns compared to its
appropriate real world. Statistical analysis results in low MAPEs (Mean Absolute
Percentage Error) and RMSEs (Root Mean Square Error) at about 7% and 2%
consecutively.

Parameters MAPE R2
Total drying area (in large rice millers) 7.3% 94%
Total drying area (in small and medium rice millers) 6.5% 94%
Table 2. Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Standard Error (RMSE)
and coefficients of determinant (R2) for submodel of drying area

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 delay of new farming
land (wetland) a fraction of new
initial available land farming area (wetland)

available rice farming area

<TIME STEP> land (wetland)
new farming area
(dryland).
delay of new farming
area (dryland) new farming area
(dryland)
a fraction new farming
area (unirrigated) <switch (basecase 0)
rice farming area (GFDL CM3 RCP45 1)>
(dryland) <rice farming area
(wetland)> August SOI
switch (basecase 0) August SOI basecase
(GFDL CM3 RCP45 1) coefficient crop (GFDL-CM3 RCP45) <Time>
seasonal rainfall <unit time> intensity
constant crop
(GFDL-CM3 RCP45) intensity August SOI
<Time> harvest area unit time
(wetland) timing of
seasonal rainfall cropping intensity monsoon-onset timing of monsoon
basecase (wetland)
onset (days)
<TIME STEP> potential paddy
labour (wetland) delta labour production (wetland) <converter day to
(wetland) year>
potential actual paddy paddy-growing day
<unit time> provity
delta provity (wetland) production (wetland) (wetland)
ci delta labour (wetland)
lookup delta labour ci delta mintemp
total paddy a fraction paddy loss
(wetland) <timing of
delta paddy production after drying.
monsoon-onset>
<Time> productivity (wetland)

lookup seasonal paddy in farmers.

seasonal min temp actual paddy
mintemp
basecase production (dryland)

paddy growing day

<switch (basecase 0) delta mintemp
seasonal min temp (dryland)
(GFDL CM3 RCP45 1)>
(GFDL-CM3 RCP45) potential paddy cropping intensity
production (dryland) (dryland)

harvest area
<TIME STEP> potential (dryland)
delta provity provity
(dryland)
(dryland)
<rice farming area
delta paddy (dryland)>
cu delta seed
<unit time> productivity (dryland)

cu delta mintemp
<Time> delta seed
(dryland)

seed (dryland)
lookup delta seed
(dryland)

Figure 2. The farming area of wetland and dryland farming - provisional

10 | P a g e
 <switch (basecase 0) <seasonal rainfall <lookup seasonal constant jan aug rainfall
(GFDL CM3 RCP45 1)> (GFDL-CM3 RCP45)>
rainfall.>
<Time> coefficient jan aug rainfall
<seasonal rainfall
basecase> constant avail <Time>
lookup seasonal unit rainfall Jan-August
drying days
rainfall. Rainfall coefficient avail
effect seasonal rainfall
on paddy moisture drying days
fraction of new drying
actual paddy area large RM
<unit time> moisture level standard moisture
available drying new drying area
effect actual paddy days large RM
drying capacity each
moisture on paddy drying
100m2 drying area
time
drying intensity
required paddy total drying drying area
<converter day to drying time (days) capacity total drying area in large RM
year> unit day
available drying
required paddy capacity converter km2 to
converter day to m2
drying time (years) year drying area in
small and
total dried paddy medium RM

<Time>
<a fraction paddy loss
after drying.> new drying area in
SM RM
.total paddy wants fraction of new drying
to be dried potential dried
input paddy wants area small medium RM
paddy
to be dried

average paddy
batch to dry
<paddy in
farmers.>
<TIME STEP>
paddy in broker's
paddy to brokers stocks paddy go for
drying

fraction of paddy
saved-by farmers

Figure 3. Paddy drying area - provisional

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 <lookup seasonal constant jan aug rainfall
rainfall.>
<seasonal rainfall> <Time>
constant avail coefficient jan aug rainfall
unit rainfall Jan-August
drying days Rainfall
lookup seasonal effect seasonal rainfall <Time>
rainfall. on paddy moisture coefficient avail
actual paddy drying days
moisture level fraction of new drying
standard moisture
available drying area large RM new drying area
<unit time> days drying capacity each large RM
required paddy 100m2 drying area
drying time
drying intensity
total drying drying area
capacity total drying area in large RM
effect actual paddy unit day
moisture on paddy drying
time potential dried
paddy converter day to converter km2 to
year m2 drying area in
small and
<a fraction paddy loss medium RM
after drying.> desired dried
paddy <Time>

new drying area in

SM RM
.total paddy wants fraction of new drying
input paddy wants to be dried total dried paddy area small medium RM
to be dried

<paddy in average paddy

farmers.> batch to dry

<TIME STEP>
paddy in broker's
paddy to brokers stocks paddy go for
drying

fraction of paddy
saved-by farmers

Figure 4. Paddy milling area- provisional

In order to examine this model part, milling section, statistical analysis is completely
conducted. Based on available data from 1991 to 2011 (BPS NTB, 2012b) and
simulation results, it can be concluded that this submodel successfully has relatively
similar patterns compared to its appropriate real world as the models result in relatively
low MAPEs (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and RMSEs (Root Mean Square Error)
at about 7% and 2% consecutively.

Parameters MAPE R2
Total milling machines (large) 7.45% 94%
Total milling machines (medium) 6.6% 91%
Total milling machines (small) 7.46% 94%
Table 3. Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Standard Error (RMSE)
and coefficients of determinant (R2) for submodel of milling area

3.4. Validation
Forrester and Senge (1980) discuss some assessments in order to verify validity of
system dynamic models. These assesments are, for example, boundary adequacy,
structure verification, dimensional consistency, and parameter verification. Likewise,

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Sterman (2000) points out that a validated system dynamics model should not produce
plausible values such as negative stocks. However, this system dynamics presented in
this paper is a provisional model. Thus, a next step to do is to validate the model based
on Sterman (2000) and Forrester and Senge (1980).
6. The provisional ‘business as usual’ scenario
The business as usual scenario is based on existing structure and parameters, derived
from historical data. The model is simulated for 88 years, starting from 2012 to 2099.
As explained earlier, the model is built based on seasonal climate and seasonal paddy
yield. Because of this, the first year of simulation means one seasonal year between
September 2012 until August 2013 and so on. For example, seasonal year of 2 ranges
between September 2013 and August 2014.

In doing the base case simulation, all variables are set based on table 4. Climate
parameters are formed as random normal distribution bounded by their means, standar
deviations, minimum and maximum values.

Some provisional simulation results in figure 5 display some main behaviour in three
submodels, farming, drying and milling areas. In farming area, it is shown that paddy
productivity is highly influenced by both temperatures (minimum and maximum). This
finding, as in figure 5.1 and figure 5.2, can be seen in seasonal year of 30 (September
2041- August 2042), paddy yield of wetland decreases as minimum temperature tends to
increase (negatively affects paddy yield) and maximum temperature (positively affects
paddy yield) is likely to decrease although seasonal rainfall likely to increase. Again, in
around seasonal year of 10 (September 2021- August 2022), paddy productivity of
dryland farming will decrease although rainfall is likely to increase as maximum
temperature and minimum temperature tend to increase. This finding corroborate
previous studies explaining that temperature instead of rainfall has a significant role on
crop yield (Naylor et al., 2013; IPCC, 2007; 2013).

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 Parameters Values in IDR/ha (Wetland; Dryland) Description
Labour (IDR/year) (243);(none) Projections of
production factors are
Seed (IDR/year) (none);( 25.75) similar to their values of
2011 as their marginal
products tend to be zero.
In other words, the
recent values of
production factors are
close their optimum.
Minimum temperature RANDOM NORMAL(21.175,23.76,22.785,0.377,- These equations ask
(celsius) 0.225) Vensim to induce
climate values as
random of normal
distribution. A syntax is
Random normal
(minimum value,
maximum value, mean,
standard deviation,
skewness)
Table 4. The values of parameter on the base case simulation

Figure 5.1 and figure 5.2 also reveals that paddy productivity (paddy yield) of dryland
farming tends to be more erratic than paddy productivity (paddy yield) of wetland
farming. It is owing to a fact that both temperatures, minimum and maximum
temperature, can negatively affect paddy yield in dryland farming. Whereas, the
negative affect of minimum temperature can be negated by maximum temperature as
the latter tends to positively affect paddy yield of wetland paddy.

Figure 5.3 reveals that the timing of monsoon onset highly affects paddy production.
For instance, in around seasonal year of 35 (September 2046- August 2047) and
seasonal year of 50 (September 2061- August 2062), when the monsoon comes earlier,
seasonal paddy production in both farming types tends increase significantly. In case of
monsoon is delayed, paddy production tends to decrease in seasonal year of 16
(September 2026- August 2027) and seasonal year of 45 (September 2055- August
2056). These findings conform with other studies (Burke, 1999; Ministry of Agriculture,
2010) that effects of monsoon on Indonesian paddy production is clearly seen in
seasonal terms.

Next, figure 5.4 explains that available drying days and paddy moisture is directly
influenced by rainfall pattern. High rainfall tends to increase paddy moisture and
decrease available drying days. Rainfall tends to limit drying days as most farmers rely
on sunlight to dry their paddy. Rainfall, again, highly influences paddy moisture as this
cannot be controlled.

As drying days and paddy moisture is negatively affected by highly rainfall, total dried
paddy, in turn, is also affected rainfall pattern. Figure 5.5 reveals that the amount of
dried paddy is mainly influenced by two factors: paddy moisture, the total drying

14 | P a g e
 capacity and available drying days. Although total drying capacity can increase dried
paddy, rainfall may influence the amount of dried paddy through available drying days.
For example, in seasonal year of 2 (September 2012 – August 2013) and seasonal year
of 35 (September 2045 – August 2046), owing to high rainfall as well as lower drying
days, total dried paddy tends to be low, regardless of an increase of total drying capacity
over time.

In the milling area, the amount of milled paddy is highly influnced the total milling
capacity and total dried paddy. The higher milling capacity leads to a higher milled
paddy or rice supply. However, as seen in figure 5.6, total milled paddy as well as total
rice supply is directed by total dried paddy. Although milling process is not influenced
by rainfall, total milled paddy (total rice supply) is dictated by total dried paddy. This
can be seen between the first seasonal year (September 2011 – August 2012) and
seasonal year of 59 (September 2069 – August 2070), as total dried paddy increases,
total milled paddy also rises. After seasonal year 59, total milled paddy mimics total
dried paddy accordingly as stock of total milled paddy dwindles to zero.

Finally, figure 5.8 reveals that available land can support new farming area until around
seasonal year of 74 (September 2086 – August 2087). Afterwards, new farming cannot
be conducted. Fortunately, the existing farming has been protected under the
government law (the first governor decree1, 2013), so that the farming area cannot be
converted over time.

paddy productivity (wetland and dryland) vs (min temp)

8 tonnes/ha
25 celcius
20 tonnes/ha

4 tonnes/ha
22.5 celcius
10 tonnes/ha

0 tonnes/ha
20 celcius
0 tonnes/ha
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
"potential provity (dryland)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase tonnes/ha
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_delta_provity_basecase celcius
"potential provity (wetland)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase tonnes/ha

Figure 5.1 Paddy productivity vs climate (wetland)

1
West Nusa Tenggara is an Indonesian province so that this region is ruled by a governor

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 lookup seasonal mintemp
30

27.5
celcius

25

22.5

20
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_delta_provity_basecase

Figure 5.2 seasonal minimum temperature (a basecase and RCP 4.5 scenario)

potential provity (wetland)

20

15
tonnes/ha

10

0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
"potential provity (wetland)" : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3
"potential provity (wetland)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase

Figure 5.3 a comparison paddy productivity of wetland farming (a basecase & RCP 4.5 scenario)

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 potential provity (dryland)
8

6
tonnes/ha

0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
"potential provity (dryland)" : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3
"potential provity (dryland)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase

Figure 5.4 a comparison paddy productivity of dryland farming (a basecase & RCP 4.5 scenario)

Figure 5.5 Change of paddy productivity (basecase and RCP 4.5 scenarios)

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 monsoon onset vs paddy productions
10 M tonnes/year
40 days
5 M tonnes/year

5 M tonnes/year
0 days
2.5 M tonnes/year

0 tonnes/year
-40 days
0 tonnes/year
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
"actual paddy production (wetland)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase tonnes/year
"timing of monsoon onset (days)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase days
"actual paddy production (dryland)" : projections_delta_provity_basecase tonnes/year

Figure 5.6a Paddy production vs the timing of monsoon onset (basecase scenario)

monsoon onset vs paddy productions

10 M tonnes/year
8 days
4 M tonnes/year

5 M tonnes/year
4 days
2 M tonnes/year

0 tonnes/year
0 days
0 tonnes/year
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
"actual paddy production (wetland)" : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3 tonnes/year
"timing of monsoon onset (days)" : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3 days
"actual paddy production (dryland)" : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3 tonnes/year

Figure 5.6b Paddy production vs the timing of monsoon onset (RCP 4.5 scenario)

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 total dried paddy
2M

1.5 M
tonnes/year

1M

500,000

0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
total dried paddy : projections_delta_provity_GFDL_CM3
total dried paddy : projections_delta_provity_basecase

Figure 5.4a Paddy Moisture and seasonal rainfall (basecase scenario)

Figure 5.4b Paddy Moisture and seasonal rainfall (RCP 4.5 scenario)
Total dried paddy vs available drying days and total drying capacity
200 days
20 M tonnes/year
6000 T tonnes/year
3000 mm/year

100 days
0 tonnes/year
0 tonnes/year
0 mm/year
1 16 30 45 59 74 88
Time (year)
available drying days : basecase days
total dried paddy : basecase tonnes/year
total drying capacity : basecase tonnes/year
lookup seasonal rainfall projections : basecase mm/year

Figure 5.5 Total dried paddy, available drying days and total drying capacity

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 total milled paddy vs total milling capacity
20 M tonnes/year
100
30 M tonnes/year
3000 mm/year

0 tonnes/year
0
0 tonnes/year
0 mm/year
1 16 30 45 59 74 88
Time (year)
total milled paddy : basecase tonnes/year
total rice millers capacity : basecase
total dried paddy : basecase tonnes/year
lookup seasonal rainfall projections : basecase mm/year

Figure 5.6 Total milled paddy, total dried paddy and total rice millers capacity

stock dried paddy vs stock milled paddy

20 M tonnes/year
30 M tonnes/year
30 M tonnes
200,000 tonnes

0 tonnes/year
0 tonnes/year
0 tonnes
0 tonnes
1 16 30 45 59 74 88
Time (year)
total milled paddy : basecase tonnes/year
total dried paddy : basecase tonnes/year
"total paddy wants to be milled." : basecase tonnes
".total paddy wants to be dried" : basecase tonnes
Figure 5.7 Stock of milled paddy and dried paddy

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 Available land vs each farming area
900,000 Ha
600,000 Ha
600,000 Ha

450,000 Ha
300,000 Ha
300,000 Ha

0 Ha
0 Ha
0 Ha
1 16 30 45 59 74 88
Time (year)
available land : basecase Ha
"rice farming area (irrigated)" : basecase Ha
"rice farming area (unirrigated)" : basecase Ha
Figure 5.8 Available land and each farming area
Figure 5 The base case behaviour – provisional results
7. Provisional Results and Next teps
The provisional base case behavior reveals that the rice supply chain is highly affected
by climate pattern. For instance, climate pattern may highly influence the rice supply
chain where the drying process is highly affected by rainfall. As rainfall may hinder the
drying process, the rice supply chain may fail to provide a sufficient rice supply. Again,
less rainfall due to El-Nino may delay paddy production, causing low paddy production.
This finding support one study (Sumarno et al., 2008) claiming that less rainfall owing
to El-Nino tends to cut down rice supply.

In addition, high temperature can negatively affect rice production, especially minimum
temperature. This study corroborates other studies (Welch et al., 2010; Mohammed &
Tarpley, 2009) explaining that minimum temperature can negatively affect rice
production. The impact of minimum temperature on rice production should be
considered accordingly as IPCC (2013) projects that an increase of minimum
temperature is higher than that of maximum temperature.

Some possible options are proposed to overcome the impact of climate change on the
rice supply chain. The first option is to increase availability of paddy drying machines.
This option may negate the negative impact of rainfall on low drying days, leading to
high dried paddy. The second option is to breed new paddy varieties in order to
minimize the negative impact of high temperature on rice production. The third option
is to construct more irrigation facilities as irrigation can induce transpirational cooling
reducing the negative impact of high temperature (Jagadish et. al., 2010).

Following this study, the principal author will embed projections of climate change
based on some Global Climate Models (GCMs). This aims to understand the impact of

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climate change on the rice supply chain based on projections of climate until 2100.
Afterwards, some proposed options to tackle the impacts of climate change on the rice
supply chain will be tested in order to overcome the negative impacts of climate change.

Please see the references and appendices (including causal loop diagrams and selected
equations) in our supplementary files.

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