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ABSTRACT
There have been raising concerns to understand impacts of climate change on rice production.
Existing studies have already affirm that climate change, through rainfall and temperature,
can negatively impact rice production. However, these studies only consider impacts of
specific climate, either rainfall or temperature, on rice production. Existing studies also lack
of explaining how climate variables can be attached into a production function. In turn, this
study intends to explore simultaneous impacts of rainfall and temperature on rice production.
Particularly, this study explores impacts of minimum and maximum temperature on rice
production. In addition, this study offers a production or statistical function of combination
climate and production factors to estimate paddy production appropriately. This papers
affirms that embedding climate variables into a production function is a must to get an
appropriate production function. This study also points out that effect of minimum
temperature is more pronounced than effect of rainfall and maximum temperature.
I. Introduction
Constructing production functions to estimate paddy productions has been considered in
Indonesian studies. In case of Indonesian paddy production, some studies (Djauhari, 1999;
Mariyono, 2013; Suakesih, 2001; Triyanto, 2006; Widodo, 1986) develop production
functions to estimate paddy yield. These studies measure the paddy yield, through production
functions, involving some production factors such as fertilizer, pesticide, labour and capital.
These studies, however, lack of embedding climate into production functions.
Some existing studies explain impacts of climate on Indonesian paddy production. Indonesian
rice production mainly is affected by precipitation (Naylor, Falcon, Wada, & Rochberg, 2001,
2002; Roberts, Dawe, Falcon & Naylor, 2004; Naylor et al. 2007). Furthermore, water
sources for farming areas such as dams, rivers and lakes highly depends on precipitation so
that a lower rainfall because of climate change could directly affect rice output in Indonesia
(Sumarno et al., 2008).
Another climatic condition that could affect Indonesia rice production, owing to climate
change, is higher temperatures at midday (maximum temperature) and at night (minimum
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temperature). It is widely known that higher temperatures can affect rice yield because they
can increase respiration maintenance rate (Peng et al., 2004; Mohammed & Tarpley, 2009;
Welch et al., 2010). It appears that two important variables including precipitation and
temperature could influence rice production (Ackerman & Stanton, 2013; Lobell, Schlenker,
& Costa-Roberts, 2011; Slingo, Challinor, Hoskins, & Wheeler, 2005).
Thus, this paper intends to explain importance of climate on paddy productions. In doing so,
climate variables are directly embedded into a production function. Moreover, this study goes
beyond available studies in two ways. Firstly, this study will involve maximum and minimum
temperature. This is very important as IPCC (2013) projects that an increase of minimum
temperature tends to higher compare to maximum temperature. Lastly, this study integrates
production factors and climate to estimate paddy production in Indonesia.
Data used in this study is drawn from some governmental institutions in Indonesia including
BPS (The Bureau of Indonesian Statistics) and BMKG (The Bureau of Indonesia
Meteorology and Geophysics). Both institutions are prominent institution in their field and
their data is widely used by some scientists from Indonesia and foreign countries. Multiple
year data of paddy production and related production factors is collected from BPS and all
climate data is collected from BMKG.
Available data from BPS provides information of seasonal paddy production and production
factors from 1976 to 2011. BMKG provides data of precipitation, minimum and maximum
temperature in term of monthly indicators. In addition, recent is available in electronic files,
while old data was retyped as this data is only available on hardcopy.
In case of climate variables, seasonal climate is used as seasonal climate tends to affect crop
production. This aims to directly capture effects of climate on paddy production. Indonesian
farmers usually sow their paddy in early wet seasons around September and the final harvest
is around August next year. Due to this, seasonal climate from September and August (next
year) is used in this study.
Production factors are separated into four clusters including labour, capital, pesticide,
fertilizer and a time variable. These inputs are used as some studies (Mariyono, ) affirm that
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all of them are important to paddy production. In order to have dimensional consistencies,
this study modifies a T21 model (Bassi et al., 2010) as follows:
Figure 1 below shows two maps: Indonesia and West Nusa Tenggara. As shown in figure 1a,
Indonesia consists of 33 provinces from Aceh (in western Indonesia) until Papua (in eastern
Indonesia. West Nusa Tenggara is located in southern Indonesia, close to Bali and East Nusa
Tenggara.
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Figure 1a. Indonesia (source: http://www.indonesiamatters.com/86/indonesian-provinces-map/)
Figure 2 shows the percentage of food consumption in WNT. Paddy is the highest consumed
food in WNT (about 25%), following by prepared food and beverages (about 20%). In other
words, paddy is a main source of energy and protein for people in WNT (Pemerintah Nusa
Tenggara Barat, 2011).
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Figure 2 The percentage of food consumption in WNT (BPS NTB, 2010)
Figure 3 and 4, consecutively, show the percentage of gross domestic product (GRDP) and
percentage of employment by industry in WNT. Although agriculture is the second highest
sector by GRDP contribution (25% of GRDP, mining is the highest one with 30%),
agriculture has the highest contribution, about 45%, to the total employment in WNT.
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Figure 4. Percentage of Employment by Industry in WNT (BPS NTB, 2010)
Based on data in multiple years between 1976 and 2013, two statistical models are
assembled. The first statistical equation is a production function represented relationships
among factor productions and paddy productivity for irrigated land. The second one is similar
to the first, but involving climate as independent variables. In order to assess statistical
models, available data will be separated into 2 categories. As Lobell (2010) points out data
that 20 year data is sufficient to construct an appropriate statistical equations, data in the
period 1976-1995 is used to estimate production functions. In order to validate the models,
data from 1996 to 2011 is used to assess production functions.
Table 1 summarizes coefficient for each production function. The first column includes all
coefficients for a production function without climate variables and the second column
describes all coefficients for a production function with climate variables. This table also
shows MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), RMSE and R-adjusted correlations of each
equation.
Figure 5, in addition, shows that better error indicators also can be seen appropriately. This
figure affirms involving climate into production function leads to more fitted values. As seen,
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Variable Names Climate Without climate
In order to assess both production functions, the functions are used to estimate paddy
productivity between 1976 and 2011. Again, attaching climate into production functions lead
to better predictions. Statistical tests show that the second production function has MAPE,
RMSE and adjusted square about 3.42 %, 0.87% and 0.97. While its counterpart has about
4.54%, 1.14% and 0.96 consecutively. In turn, a production function describing effects of
climate on paddy productivity has lower MAPE, RMSE indexes and a higher R-adjusted
square. The latter indicates that involving climate into production functions should be
enocuraged.
In case of factor productions, fertilizer tends to decrease paddy productivity. This conforms
with available data of fertilizer uses. Available data in the period 1976-2011 shows that
farmers apply more than its recommended use. In particular, farmers applied fertilizer of
phospate more than its recommended dose, 50 kg/Ha. Again, paddy productivity tends to
decrease as farmers in this region apply a higher dose of 45 kgs/ha seed compared to its
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recommended dose at about 30 kgs/ha. Pesticide, on the other hand, tends to rise paddy
productivity. The latter conforms that WNT tends to vulnerable to pests and diseases (Diperta
NTB, 2012).
Conclusion
It is obvious that climate change could negatively affect rice production in the West Nusa
Tenggara province. Climate change could negatively affect rice production through higher
temperatures and decreasing precipitation. Meanwhile, the positive effect of CO 2 is limited as
its effect is highly negated by higher minimum temperatures through respiration maintenance
process.
Local minimum temperature in the region close to the minimum temperature observed by
Peng et al. (2004). Because of this, it could conclude that nighttime temperature in the
province has already reduced the local rice production, at least, the negative impact of
nighttime temperature should be seen in near future. In the case of the maximum temperature,
since there is a gap about 3 oC between the local maximum temperature (32 oC) and
temperature threshold for rice (35oC), the negative impact of maximum temperature will not
be seen in near future. However, because future precipitation will be a lower so that there is
limited transpirational cooling, the negative impact of maximum temperature should be
appropriately observed.
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