Professional Documents
Culture Documents
laboratory
Farid Comaty
Master Thesis
PSL1216
"Our dependence on fossil fuels amounts to global pyromania, and the only fire
extinguisher we have at our disposal is renewable energy."
Hermann Scheer
April 29, 1944 - October 14, 2010
Social Democrat Member of the German Parliament
Abstract
This master thesis assesses the value of flexibility of the European power sys-
tem (EPS) in order to derive an optimal operation strategy for accommodating high
shares of solar and wind energy. It also investigates the related policy, economic
and environmental implications of renewable energy sources (RES) and discusses
country specific flexibility value with a focus on storage units.
The EPS is modeled as a system of interconnected power nodes, each one
representing a country’s generation and consumption portfolio. Data basis are IEA
and ENTSO-E projections for 2020 and EurElectric hydro data. The wind and
solar hourly time series were obtained from the IRENE-40 EU research project.
The flexibility sources analyzed are pump storage plants (power and energy rating),
power lines net transmission capacity (NTC) and curtailment of renewable energy
sources. The simulation length is one full year and the system is dispatched hourly
based on the merit order curve. A model predictive optimization algorithm looks
24 hour forward and updates the dispatch strategy every four hours to optimally
cycle storage reservoirs.
Moving from a low-RES (20%) to a high-RES scenario (70%) where wind and
solar energy contributes up to 53%, the EPS saves on total operation cost in gener-
ating electricity between €∼58 to 95 bn, depending weather the O&M cost of vari-
able renewable plants is considered. In such scenario, the priority in-feed policy
for RES units is no longer economically optimal; spilling up to 16% of available
free energy saves €bn 8bn on operation cost, thereby valuating the curtailment
of RES. To minimize curtailments, the NTC capacities and pump storage ratings
(power and energy) should best be tripled. Above such increase, curtailments will
still be necessary in a high-share RES scenario and the flexibility value starts to
saturate, meaning that an increase in the flexibility of the system is no longer help-
ful for integrating more RES. On a European system-level, RES integration was
most sensitive to increasing the net transmission capacity between the countries
with an almost linear slope of two percentage points, while for storage power rat-
ing the slope of integration was one percentage point and for storage energy rating
the slope of integration was half a percentage point. Tripling each flexibility source
saves on operation cost €bn 15.5, 2.7 and 0.66, respectively, and €bn 18.42 if all
were tripled simultaneously. The yearly savings of operation cost represents the
flexibility value. CO2 emissions from the EU power sector are cut by 91% only
iv
v
if coal and oil power plants are replaced by natural gas or equipped with carbon
capture and storage technology, otherwise by a maximum of 44%.
The thesis discusses also country case studies which did not follow the general
EU trend, examples are Spain and Germany, and suggests specific power system
upgrades accordingly. As well, we illustrate a forecast of the power exchange pat-
terns between EU countries under a high renewable energy scenario and predict
the future cost of electricity generation and market price. All different power sys-
tem setups were adequate as no load shedding occurred which was above 0.5 % of
national load demand.
Acknowledgments
This work was conducted at the Power Systems Laboratory (PSL) of ETH
Zurich and in collaboration with the department of "Future Technology Execution"
of Alstom (Schweiz) AG located in Birr.
Analyzing the numerous aspects of a high-renewable electricity supply in 29
countries was a very challenging task, which I could have not undertake without
the commitment of Andreas Ulbig to supervise my thesis. I pose in deep gratitude
towards him for allowing me to work on such an interesting topic, helping me
figure out the bottlenecks in the thesis and deepen my knowledge on power system
operation. Also, I sincerely thank Fabio Feretti and Roberto Bove from Alstom
for their continuous support and the constructive brainstorming sessions we had to
structure the problem and arrive to a final message. I am as well grateful to Prof.
Dr. Andersson for being my tutor in my Master studies at ETH and allowing me to
write my thesis at PSL.
My post-graduate studies would have not been that enjoyable without my dear
friends Abhishek, Cooper, Erik, June, Martin, Moonjo and Ratri, whom I have met
here. Special thanks to Erik for his helpful advices on structuring this report.
Finally, I wish to sincerely thank the two pillars of my education in life, my
supportive parents Nicolas and Joumana Comaty, whom have always encouraged
me to build my own path and work hard for it. I am grateful also to the Govern-
ment of Quebec in Canada for supporting part of my undergraduate and graduate
studies.
vi
Contents
List of Abbreviations xi
List of Figures xi
1 Introduction 2
1.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 Sources of operational flexibility in the grid . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2.1 Ramping capability of generators . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2.2 Energy storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.3 Demand side participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.2.4 Net transfer capacity of cross border flows . . . . . . . . . 11
1.2.5 Controllability of wind and solar power units . . . . . . . 12
1.3 Literature survey on the integration of high-shares of renewable
energies in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.4 Priority infeed legislation: advantages and drawbacks . . . . . . . 18
1.5 The Power Node modeling framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.6 MPC application in power system dispatch . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.7 Upgrading the future EU power system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
I Modeling Framework 26
2 Modeling data 28
2.1 IRENE-40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.1.1 Load forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.1.2 Wind energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.1.3 Solar energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.1.4 Net transfer capacities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1.5 EU generation mix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.2 EURELECTRIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.2.1 Detailed hydro capacity data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.2.2 Equivalent ramp rates of a pool of conventional generators 34
viii
CONTENTS ix
Bibliography 115
List of Abbreviations
xi
List of Figures
2.1 Final electricity demand for the EU in the five scenarios in TWh
per year [12]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.2 Monthly consumption (January) as a percentage of the annual con-
sumption for Italy - historical data, extrapolated data, trends [12]. . 30
2.3 Measured historical wind power production in western Denmark
for third week in 2000 compared to simulated data, using Re-analysis
wind data [13]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
xii
LIST OF FIGURES xiii
2.4 Simulated wind onshore and offshore power infeed on the third
week of January in Germany for different reference years [12]. . . 31
2.5 Simulated PV and CSP infeed on the first week of January in Spain
for different reference years [12]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.6 IRENE-40 generation mix in 2010 of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria
and Czech Republic [12]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.7 IRENE-40 RES scenario: EU generation mix evolution from 2010
to 2050 [12]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.8 Run-of-river and hydro reservoir hourly infeed in 2010 in Switzer-
land. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.9 Country fleet structure according to controllability, ramping capa-
bility, efficiency and cost of power plants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1 External demand process ξdrv (t) representing the aggregated elec-
tricity demand in France in 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.2 System view of interconnected power nodes representing the west-
ern European power system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
7.1 RES integration sensitivity relative to the power lines NTC and
storage power rating expansions in Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
7.2 RES integration sensitivity relative to storage power and storage
energy expansions in Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
7.3 RES integration vs increase of each flexibility parameter and their
combination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
7.4 RES integration sensitivity relative to power lines NTC and storage
power expansions in Spain and Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
7.5 RES integration sensitivity relative to storage power and storage
energy expansions in Spain and Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
7.6 CO2 emissions of the European power sector under different power
system configurations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
xv
LIST OF TABLES xvi
Introduction
Since the Kyoto protocol was established in 1990, Europe has shown deter-
mination in fighting climate change and is leading the world in doing so. All
EU-members have recently renewed their commitment to the protocol at the Doha
climate change conference and are binded to reduce their carbon emissions by 18%
below their 1990 levels until 2020 [21]. Today, the EU is on track and has reached
an estimate of 16% below its 1990 levels [22]. Furthermore, the European Com-
mission has presented an ambitious roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy
in 2050 which targets an 80% emission reduction [23]. To reach such reductions,
the first lever is the power generation sector, which holds the greatest emission
reduction potential and is thus targeted to be almost fully "decarbonised", reach-
ing 95% emission reduction in 2050 [23]. Hence EU members acknowledge that
continuing to burn solely fossil fuels as a mean to generate electricity is no longer
viable to meet the demand. The gradual switch to renewable energy is imminent
and necessary to first, sustain the EU’s development on a long term and second, to
increase its energy security and hedge itself against increasing volatile fossil fuel
prices.
To provide a reliable and secure electricity supply, power system operators
have to balance more or less instantaneously the production and consumption of
electricity, because it cannot be stored on a large scale. Traditionally, conven-
tional power plants were dispatched according to foreseeable demand fluctuations
in form of yearly (summer vs winter), weekly (weekday vs weekend) and daily
(day vs night) variations [7]. Solar and wind energy, being weather dependent, add
a variability and uncertainty to the supply of electricity and, thus, challenge the
task of balancing the system. An imbalance between supply and demand will re-
sult in a lower quality of the delivered electrical energy [24], which affects in turn
the proper functioning of any equipment connected to the grid. In the worst case,
a complete power system collapse, known as "black-out", can happen if this im-
balance is not regulated. At low wind and solar shares, the philosophy of "connect
and manage" has so far worked with transmission operators in balancing the system
[6]. When the wind blows or the sun shines, the energy generated from these VRP
2
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 3
is fed directly to the grid and conventional power plants are dispatched according
to the residual demand, which is the load demand minus the renewable energy that
was fed in. However, since Europe is counting predominantly on wind and solar
energy to decarbonise its power sector, the fluctuations in the residual demand will
be significantly higher, more frequent and sometimes unpredictable, leading to in-
creasing risk of a blackout. The existing operational flexibility in power systems is
vital in preventing such event. It emanates from five existing sources: energy stor-
age technologies, ramping capability of generators, power exchanges between in-
terconnected countries, demand-side participation and controllability of wind and
solar units. Once the role of each flexibility source in integrating high shares of
VRE is assessed and the overall limit of the system is found, the European power
system can be upgraded accordingly to increase this limit and stay secure under a
high share of VRE. Furthermore, given that a high-share of RES will have multiple
different impacts on the EPS, it would be interesting to quantify the operational
benefits when moving from low to high RES-shares and study the influence dif-
ferent renewable policies could have on these benefits. As well, it is intriguing to
investigate how will the electricity generation cost evolve and how will cross bor-
der power flows in the EU change in such a scenario. Most importantly will the
CO2 emission reduction target be achieved with only more wind and solar energy
or is a radical change in phasing out polluting plants also needed ?
This master thesis provides answers to the mentioned topics. It has the follow-
ing structure: Chapter 1 starts by presenting the hard facts behind our motivation.
We clarify the characteristics of each flexibility source and present a literature sur-
vey on assessing their roles for high-renewable penetration in Europe. We identify
research gaps and stress specifically the inefficiency of giving priority infeed to
renewable energies in a high RES-share scenario. We introduce the Power Node
Modeling framework and the algorithm of our simulator to tackle those gaps and
allow for a true system optimization. We explain our approach in finding the opti-
mal way to upgrade the European power system for a high renewable supply. Part
I consists of Chapter 2-4, which present our modeling framework: the data we
used and restructured from various sources (IRENE 40, EurElectric and IEA), our
EU interconnected power node model and our MATLAB based dispatch simula-
tor. Part II consist of Chapter 5, 6 and 7, which presents our findings. Chapter 5
features the validity of our simulation results for the year 2010 by comparing the
obtained theoretical dispatch in selected countries to literature. Chapter 6 analyzes
the impact that high share of RES will have on power flow exchanges and on the
generation cost and market price of electricity in Europe. We discuss also how dif-
ferent renewable policies affect the system operation cost in a high-VRE scenario.
Chapter 7 represents our core results in finding out how to develop the EPS. We
discuss the sensitivity of VRE integration to the increased capacity of each flexi-
bility source and value them, on a EU level and a chosen country level (Germany
and Spain). We present a solution to decarbonize the power system. Chapter 8 re-
capitulates Part II and highlights the main messages we have derived to minimize
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 4
the operation cost of the EPS under high-share RES, while maximizing the RES
integration and minimizing CO2 emissions. Policy recommendations are listed.
Future work in the field is recommended.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 5
1.1 Motivation
The motivation of the thesis originates from the fact that Europe is leading the
world today in renewable energy investments and will start to face serious balanc-
ing challenges due to the variability and uncertainty of solar and wind energy. In
2011, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power plants in Europe (includ-
ing offshore Wind) has reached 94 GW [3], and the cumulative installed capacity
of solar power plants (only photovoltaic) has reached 51 GW [2]. Europe’s wind
power capacity surpasses the one of China and United States by 20 and 35 GW, re-
spectively, [25] and the solar power capacity surpasses by 45 GW the one installed
in each country [26, 25]. Figures 1.1- 1.2 illustrate the solar and wind installed
capacities in the EU by the end of 2011.
Figure 1.1: Installed PV Power Capacity in the European Union at the end of 2011
[2].
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 6
Figure 1.2: Installed Wind Power Capacity in the European Union at the end of
2011 [3].
power plants is well in line with the NREAP and the trend of installing PV plants
is surpassing the NREAP by 1.5 times.
Figure 1.3: Comparison of the PV current trend in EU with the NREAP [2].
Figure 1.4: Comparison of the wind power current trend in EU with the NREAP
[3].
Assuming minimum standard load factor for PV (0.1) and for wind energy
(0.2) [6], this will lead the EU to satisfy at least 17% of its actual electricity de-
mand with VRE in 2020 and 45% in 2050 if the trend continues at a linear pace.
With increasingly volatile supply, if the sun does not shines nor the wind blows, the
loss of load probability will increase considerably, putting the economy and wealth
of EU at high risk of a blackout. To overcome this challenge, power flow exchanges
between interconnected countries, energy storage, ramping of conventional gener-
ators, demand side management and curtailment of wind and solar power units are
valuable sources that provide balancing services to keep the system secure. Hence,
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 8
it is a must to evaluate the limit of these flexibility options in integrating VRE with-
out risking the reliability of the European power system . Once this limit is found,
the question is how to optimize it, thereby motivating our work. We explain now
the characteristics of each source and their respective operational limits.
1
A generator follows the principle of Faraday’s law of Induction, which states that a rotating coil
placed in a varying magnetic a field will produce an electric current [31]
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 9
operational flexibility and can be ramped up to full capacity in less than 15 minutes
[8].
2
Eideal = m.g.h = ρ.V.g.h = 998 mkg3 ∗9.79 sm2 ∗140.106 m3 ∗955m∗ 3.6
1 kWh 1
MJ 106
GWh 1 h
∗
kWh 24 day
= 15.4GWd
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 11
2
A black start is the process of restoring a power station to operation without relying on the
external electric power transmission network [40]
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 12
Figure 1.5: Coordinated control of TSOs set-points and wind farm output [4].
The [+/-] sign indicate that each source can add or reduce power from the
balance. We present now an overview of previous work that dealt with evaluating
the role of these flexilibity sources in integrating high shares of VRE.
The first step consists of calculating the Technical Flexibility (TF) index of four
resources (dispatchable power plants, storage, interconnection resources and de-
mand side management) to ramp up and down over different balancing time frames
(15 minutes, 1 hour, 6 hours, 36 hours). This index is derived from summing the
MW output of each flexibility source at the respective timescale and normalizing
it to the peak demand of the area. Once found, IEA demonstrates that if the spe-
cific grid and market rule constraints of the power area are not included, this index
could be overestimated or underestimated for the given area, therefore providing a
false judgment on the ability to balance VRE. Hence, step two consist of adjusting
the Technical Flexibility index to the specific attributes of the power area in ques-
tion. In step three, the IEA determines the maximum flexibility requirement of
the system, by deriving the residual load (fluctuations of demand minus VRE) and
combining it to the contingencies of the system. The final step brings all elements
together to establish the Present VRE Penetration Potential (PVP), expressed as
percentage of gross electrical demand of the area in question. The main finding of
their research is illustrated in Fig 1.8.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 16
Figure ES.2 VRE deployment potentials today from the balancing perspective
100%
90%
PVP (present VRE Penetration Potential
Grid
Market
assist in balancing. Power markets should incorporate mechanisms that enable sufficient response
should still be increased for a better integration of renewable sources. Quantitative
from supply-side and demand-side flexibility assets. Electricity is usually traded through a combination
analysis
of long-term remains
bilateral to be done
contracts to find
and daily powerout monetary
exchanges. cost
Markets thatand benefits
rely heavily when
on the formermoving
will
into a high share RES scenario.
Harnessing variable renewables: a guide to the balancing challenge
In contrast to the previous study, the Union of the Electricity Industry - EUR-
ELECTRIC assessed solely in [7] the role of each flexible generation to balance
the deployment of VRE in Germany, Spain and the Nordic countries. In collabora-
tion with VGB PowerTech, EURELECTRIC surveyed conventional power plants
in Europe on matters of their flexibility, that is to say to the cold and warm start
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 17
up times of the specific plant, the rate of load following operations, the minimum
possible load and the necessary shut down time. "The figures come from genera-
tors’ daily business, technical values as claimed by equipment suppliers have not
been taken into consideration due to their lack of representativeness". The investi-
gated plants are nuclear power plants (’NPP’), hard coal-fired power plants (’HC’),
lignite-fired power plants(’Lign’), combined cycle gas-fired power plants (’CCG’)
and pumped storage power plants (’PS’). Their results is presented in figure 1.9.
Their finding proved that NPP were the most suited conventional power plants
to provide load following operations. In fact, 75% of their nominal output can
be ramped up or down in 15 minutes if they were already brought online. Thus,
constraining NPP to pure base load power operations diminishes the power system
flexibility potential in question. EURELECTRIC highlights that it is important
to differ between demand (load)-driven fluctuations and generation-driven fluctua-
tions. The load variations emanate from the traditional seasonal (summer vs win-
ter), weekly (working day vs week) and daily (night vs day) load demand changes
and the generation-driven variations can originate, for example, from the sudden
decrease in wind speeds or appearance of clouds, which in turn disturbs the power
system planning and requires quick power ramps. In that case, pumped storage
plants appear to be still the only valid technology that is able to cope with these
high power ramps and deliver active power on quarterly basis. However, if their
reservoirs get depleted, then CCGTPP plays a vital role in offering back up capac-
ity as they can reach full capacity from warm condition in two hours. Figure 1.10
illustrates the crucial role CCGTPP units played on March 3 2010 in Spain.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 18
At 4am on that day, the wind stopped blowing, reducing the output of wind plants
by 5 GW while the demand for electricity was going to increase by 10 GW over
the next 5 hours. The needed upward ramp in the grid was thus 15 GW in that
time frame to avoid a blackout. 27 CCG plants were turned on to offer such bal-
ancing. The report concludes, similarly to IEA [6], that the existing fleet of the
studied countries was flexible enough to provide balancing services for the next
years. Hydro is the backbone of the power system in providing flexiblity means
on short time scales and will play a crucial role for the integration of high share of
VRE. Thus any existing hydro potential in Europe should not be left unexploited,
a statement that motivated the organization to evaluate Europe’s Hydro potential.
In [8], EURELECTRIC provides facts and figures on hydropower in all EU
countries, detailing the power capacities of run-of-river plants, hydro reservoirs
and pump storage plants (PSP) and the energy rating of the latter. It also investi-
gates the unexploited hydro potential of Europe. According to a questionnaire they
distributed to pump storage plants in Europe, the organization was able to group
vital data on the energy capacity of these storage plants indicated in figure 1.11.
Data is missing for Italy, Romania and Sweden.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 19
Figure 1.11: Total amount of electricity (logarithmic scale) that can currently be
stored in one ideal pumping cycle [8]
The value on the top of each bar represents the total amount of energy the country
can pump from all its lower reservoirs to upper reservoirs, at full capacity, until
the lower reservoirs are empty or the upper reservoirs are full (ideal pumping cycle
[8]). With a capacity of 2.8 GW of pump hydro plants in the United Kingdom
(UK), the country could offer 12 hours of full load operation to store an excess of
33 GWh of wind infeed or provide 33 GWh to balance a deficit in wind produc-
tion. However, EURELECTRIC stresses in their report that the duration of an ideal
pumping cyle differs from reality as not all power plants have the same reservoir
and power capacities. Figure 1.12 illustrate plant-specific data that was collected
from Austria, France, the UK, Spain and Switzerland.
The area under the red curve (UK) sums up to 33 GWh and spans 24 hours of op-
eration. It highlights the "temporal distribution" of pump storage plants in UK and
Figure 1.12: Pump storage function of Austria, France, United Kingdom, Spain
and Switzerland in the first 90 hours of an ideal pumping cycle [8]
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 20
falsifies our previous statement regarding the 12 hours of full load operation. In
real life, the UK pumped storage plants are only able to offer 5 hours of storage
operation at rate of 2.8 GW per hour. Then for 15 hours they could bid for 1.1
GW per hour to finally 2 hours at 0.6 GW and one hour at 0.4 GW, as their up-
per reservoir gets empty or full. Temporal distribution is a key characteristics to
for assessing the exact function of PSP in balancing variable renewable infeeds,
nonetheless, EURELECTRIC failed in obtaining plant-specific data from all EU
countries due to confidentiality reasons. For the purpose of our study, the power
and energy rating of each PSP in Europe was highly valuable. We will come back
to this point in our results section. Regarding the hydro potential, the report states
that half of the technical feasible potential is not exploited in Europe reaching 650∼
TWh per year. Country specific potential are presented in figure 1.13.
The report concludes that pumped storage plants are highly suitable to take the role
of a large-scale battery for the integration of intermittent generation in Europe.
Categorizing the energy capacity of PSP per country is essential to evaluate the
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 21
3. Dispatching the power system with a prediction horizon and not on an hourly
basis to optimize effectively the cycling of storage plants.
5. Modeling the hourly infeed of all variable renewable supply in Europe; wind,
solar and hydro.
6. Modeling with accuracy the available storage size of pumped hydro in each
EU country (specific energy and power rating capacities).
Each listed point is implemented and presented in our work. The motivation
behind the first three points is successively introduced in this chapter. Point 4,5
and 6 are clarified in chapter 2. Point 7 and 8 will be found in the conclusion.
Figure 1.14: Electricity price in the German power exchange in 2007 and 2011 [9].
By all means, with the success of the feed-in tariff policy in Germany, EU
countries started to adapt it progressively, leading to a steep increase in renewable
energy investments in Europe. The figure below exemplifies the continuous install-
ments of wind power plants and the boost in PV installations increase in EU after
2000, even after the financial crisis in 2008.
The coupling of the priority infeed and feed-in tariff policy has clearly proven
its effectiveness since renewable investments were not impeded by the financial
crisis. However, in a high-share renewable scenario, the priority infeed policy is
constraining power system operators in optimally dispatching the system. Com-
mon wisdom will dictate that the more available-free renewable energy is fed in
the grid, the more inexpensive the operation of the system will be. Nevertheless,
with more intermittent generation in the mix, the variability of supply imposed on
the system will increase and thereby, balancing cost likewise. There exists an op-
tion to reduce the need for balancing power by just simply curtailing renewable
output. Hence, if the reduction in balancing cost outweighs the benefit of priori-
tizing VRE, then the priority infeed policy is no longer economically optimal in a
high VRE scenario. Wu and Kapunscinski show in [53] that curtailing wind power
output helps reduce the operation cost of the Michigan power system by 8% when
the shares of wind energy have reached 34 % of national production. This signifi-
cant value comes from the fact that they have detailed the production cost of their
fleet, dividing it in intermediate and highly rampable fleet and differentiating be-
tween start up fuel and part loading cost. Hence, they could prove that the option of
using more efficiently the cheaper intermediate fleet at the extent of curtailing wind
energy was more economic than fully integrating it, thereby being constrained to
dispatch more often the expensive peaking unit in case of sudden shortage. This
study motivated us to question the economic optimality of the priority infeed pol-
icy in Europe under a high share scenario of VRE. Section 6 will elaborate on this
issue. It is important to note that the phase out of the priority infeed policy is not
correlated to the phase out of the feed-in tariff policy. The latter can still be present
even if VRE are no longer given priority infeed. We do not discuss in our work if
the feed-in tariff would still be justifiable with more renewables in the mix. This
financial assessment falls outside of the scope of study.
The idea behind the approach is that any power source or sink connected to the
electric grid requires the conversion of some form of energy into electricity with
a certain efficiency and vice versa. The demand and supply process are lumped
into parameter ξ, with ξ < 0 indicating use and ξ > 0 supply. In the grid domain,
ugen describes a conversion corresponding to power generation with efficiency ηgen ,
while uload describes a conversion corresponding to power consumption with effi-
ciency ηload . If this conversion happens to take place via a buffer with a certain
capacity C e.g a battery, then the external process ξ is decoupled from the grid re-
lated exchanges ugen and ηload . The storage losses of the buffer are modeled by the
term ν. The possibility to curtail an external supply/demand process is lumped in
the parameter w, with w > 0 indicating curtailment of provided energy and w < 0
curtailment of demanded energy. All these energy flows will influence the dynam-
ics of the Power Node storage level x. Mathematically expressed, the dynamics
of an arbitrary power node i ∈ N = {1, ..., N} will follow the following equation
subjected to a generic set of constraints.
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 26
The constraints implies that in a) the state of charge is normalized and bounded,
(b, c) the grid-variables are non-negative and bounded, (d, e) the external sup-
ply/demand and the curtailment need to have the same sign and the latter can not
exceed the former, (f) storage losses are non-negative. For power systems studies
under dynamic operating conditions, ramp-rate constraints such as u̇gen,i and u̇load,i
can be included. Further constraints can be imposed on the variables ugen,i , uload,i ,
Ci , xi , ξi , νi and wi to represent the availability and controllability of an arbitrary
generation, storage or load unit. Table 1.2 establishes a set of basic properties iden-
tified by the authors which defines the operational behavior of a power system unit
modeled as power nodes.
• If a power node is capable to store energy, then its capacity is non zero
(Ci > 0). Otherwise, Ci = 0.
• The sign of the external process variable ξi determines its nature; ξi > 0 is
supply e.g sun, wind, fuel; ξi < 0 is demand e.g electrical appliances. If no
external process takes place e.g battery, then ξi = 0
• If the power node feature storage, then it is either considered lossy (ν > 0)
or not (ν = 0)
forward by one step receding into the future. As this shift is made, weather updates
are incorporated, thereby any change in predicted wind speeds or sun irradiation
will be given as input to the now current state, yielding a new dispatch strategy.
The iteration is repeated until the last time step of the simulation length of the dis-
patch operation. To perform an MPC controlled economic dispatch close to reality,
the prediction horizon can be set to 24 hours according to the bids in the day-ahead
market. Weather updates can be performed every second, however this would sig-
nificantly impede the computation time. P. Jonas studied in his master thesis [54]
the effect of the weather update frequency on the dispatch cost. He showed that
the former can be set up to one sixth of the prediction horizon length of 24 hours
without compromising the optimal solution. Based on his results, weather updates
should be done every 4 hours to re-calculate an optimal trajectory in case predicted
wind or solar infeeds have changed. Figure 1.17 illustrates the application of MPC
in power system dispatch.
The example above represents only a sketch of the algorithm solution and no
real solution. One observes the change in the current trajectory of the decision
variables after an update of the future wind forecast. With such an algorithm,
storage plants are optimally cycled as they are discharged prior to an expected
excess intermittent renewable infeed and the use of peaking power plant is reduced
as inexpensive plant can be ramped up prior to supply shortfalls. Chapter 4 will
detail the mathematical formulation of the the economic dispatch and the MPC
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 29
model.
Modeling Framework
30
Chapter 2
Modeling data
We introduce the data we used from various sources (IRENE 40, EurElectric and
IEA [20, 58, 18]), how we structured it and how we scaled it up if needed. Data
consisted of every EU country’s generation mix, pump storage capacity (energy
and power) and the net transfer capacities limits between the countries provided by
ENTSO-E. We explain the rational behind the hourly time series of load, PV, CSP,
wind onshore, wind offshore that were also provided. We clarify how we modeled
hourly hydro (reservoirs and run-of-river) time-series for every EU country based
on the provided data of Switzerland. We present also in this chapter how we derived
the constraints to our optimization problem, mainly the cost constraints and the
ramping constraints.
32
CHAPTER 2. MODELING DATA 33
2.1 IRENE-40
The EU research project IRENE-40 (Infrastructure Roadmap for Energy Networks
in Europe) grouped highly credential industries (ABB, Alstom, ECN, Siemens)
and European research universities (ETH, Imperial, NTUA, RWTH, TUDelft) to
plan the development for the European and Pan-European transmission networks
for the next 40 years [12]. In addition, they evaluate future generation mixes and
load scenarios depending on different paths the EU can take in achieving its 2050
target of reducing CO2 emission by 80 % reduction target. They categorize five
scenarios in the following:
Table 2.1: Overview of the five IRENE-40 demand and generation scenarios [12].
Figure 2.1: Final electricity demand for the EU in the five scenarios in TWh per
year [12].
The electricity demand increases from 2010 to 2050 by 10%, 40% and 60%
in the EFFIENCY, BAU and the other scenarios, respectively [12]. Since the RES
scenario is the one with most intermittent share in the mix, 50%, and assumes
the highest rise in electricity demand due to the introduction of electric transport
and heatings [12], we chose to use its databases for the year 2010, 2020 and 2050
to assess the highest flexibilty value for the European power system. Data basis
consisted of hourly load demand, wind (offshore and onshore) and solar (PV and
CSP) infeeds in every EU country. We discuss also how they planned to develop the
transmission network from 2020 onwards and the assumptions they took to change
the generation fleet. Their RES 2050 scenario will be benchmarked in Chapter∼
7 with respect to the VRE integration, the operation cost of the system and CO2
emissions to our proposed power system upgrades.
• Obtained ENTSO-E annual hourly data from the year 1990 to 2010 for the
27 EU member states, Norway and Switzerland.
• Scale up the country annual load curves for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050
to match the total energy forecast demand of the EU for every decade.
data. By doing so, they include the ex-ante effects climate conditions, con-
sumer behavior, energy efficiency could have on electricity demand. Figure
2.2 illustrate an example of this calculations made for Italy for the month of
January.
Figure 2.3: Measured historical wind power production in western Denmark for
third week in 2000 compared to simulated data, using Re-analysis wind data [13].
CHAPTER 2. MODELING DATA 37
Figure 2.4: Simulated wind onshore and offshore power infeed on the third week
of January in Germany for different reference years [12].
daily Solar power output from CSP plants is flattened. They transform in this way
the hourly solar variation into daily variations. This assumption is technically valid
as in May 2011, a CSP plant was commissioned in Spain to offers 24 hours of solar
electricity by utilizing molten salt storage [60]. Figure 2.5 display the simulated
solar infeed in Spain on a sunny day during the first week of January for different
decades.
Figure 2.5: Simulated PV and CSP infeed on the first week of January in Spain for
different reference years [12].
CHAPTER 2. MODELING DATA 39
Figure 2.6: IRENE-40 generation mix in 2010 of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria and
Czech Republic [12].
For both years 2010 and 2020, since the EU is supposed to meet the "EU 20-
20-20 goals", the figures listed in the generation mix are in line with the NREAP
figures [12]. For the RES scenario, IRENE-40 assumes that renewable technolo-
gies will replace conventional power plants (coal, oil) even before technical end-
of-life. Large clustered offshore and onshore wind farms will be deployed in the
northwest of Europe, solar and wind in the south, and hydropower and biomass in
central and norther Europe. Renewable energy sources amounts to 80% of total
electricity generation. A constant growth rate per renewable electricity source is
assumed for the period 2020-2050. Nuclear capacity decrease from 140 GW to
155 GW and the use of solid and oil fired fuels decreases from 45% in 2020 to
8% of electricity generation in 2050. Figure 2.7 depicts the evolution of the EU
generation mix forecast by IRENE-40 for the RES scenario.
CHAPTER 2. MODELING DATA 41
Figure 2.7: IRENE-40 RES scenario: EU generation mix evolution from 2010 to
2050 [12].
In our study we use the country load forecast data and apply the same de-
ployment of renewables in 2050 as in the RES scenario of IRENE-40. We do not
however apply the change of the conventional fleet as we keep it fixed to 2020
to study the flexibility need in ramping requirements in a high-share scenario and
study the sensitivity of CO2 emissions to a change in the 2020 EU generation mix.
2.2 EURELECTRIC
2.2.1 Detailed hydro capacity data
EURELECTRIC publishes in [58] detailed data on the hydro capacities installed in
every country; Hydro reservoirs, run of river and pump storage plants. We include
therefore their data to the IRENE-40 one. Vital to our model and to the integration
of renewable energy1 was the aggregated pump storage energy reservoir capacities
per country obtained form the report [8] shown in figure 1.11. Also, based on
the information they published regarding start-up time and ramp rates of single
conventional generators that was shown in figure 1.9, we derived equivalent ramp
rates to a fleet of generators for different operation scenarios.
1
Chapter 5 will elaborate on this issue
CHAPTER 2. MODELING DATA 42
Table 2.2: Start up time and ramping constraints of conventional power plants [7].
This table exemplifies the fact that the conventional fleet on an hourly basis is very
flexible if it is already turned on. We make two key assumptions in deriving an
approximative hourly ramp rate constraint for a pool of generators:
• Any ramping down operation will happen at a load operation > 50%. Thereby
no ramping down constraint is applied and any plant could shutdown in less
than an hour.
We identify four scenarios for the state of the fleet of a country. By fleet we mean
the aggregation of all nuclear power plants, coal and gas respectively. By state we
mean if the plant is turned on or off.
1. All the fleet is turned off and need to start up from cold
The nuclear power plant calculations for scenarios 1 and 2 are shown below:
100%
(1) = 2.48 %/h (2.1)
40h + 20min
60min
100%
(2) = 4.9 %/h
40h ∗ (1 − 0.25) + 60min
20min
Figure 2.8: Run-of-river and hydro reservoir hourly infeed in 2010 in Switzerland.
1. Assume similar capacity factors for each type of hydro plant in all EU
2. Compare the total energy produced2 in each country per each type of tech-
nology to values published in IEA electricity report 2010 [14]
2.4 IEA
2.4.1 Marginal cost of production of power plants
The joint report by the IEA and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agenecy presents the
latest data concerning electricity generation costs in 2010 [18]. The data spans a
wide variety of fuels and technologies, including coal and gas, nuclear, hydro, on-
shore and offshore wind, biomass, solar and combined heat and power plants [18].
The electricity generation costs were obtained from surveying 200 plants in 21
countries, several industrial companies and organizations. We chose as reference
the industrial values since we assumed the EU electricity market to be unified. If
there was no assigned industry value, we used a country value and assumed it ap-
plies for the rest of thee EU countries. We present here an overview of the marginal
cost we have assigned to each technology. The marginal cost include the fuel costs,
the operation and maintenance cost and the CO2 emission cost. The latter is evalu-
ated at a CO2 market price of 10e/MWh and not 30$/MWh like in [18]. We found
that this value does not reflect the CO2 market price of today. Plant specific CO2
emissions per MWh of electricity produced are obtained from [19]. The financial
conversion rate assumed is 1e= 1.3$.
2
multiply capacity installed by capacity factor of technology
CHAPTER 2. MODELING DATA 45
Table 2.5: Marginal Cost of Production of conventional power plants [18, 19].
Power Plant Fuel import Emissions Efficiency Fuel cost O&M Carbon cost Total cost
(e/GJ) (tCO2 /MWh) (%) (e/MWh) (e/MWh) (e/MWh) (e/MWh)
Nuclear 0.72 - 36 7.2 9.1 - 16.3
Oil 13.4 0.62 45 107.2 4.3 6.2 117.7
Gas turbine 7.5 0.37 45 60 4.14 3.7 67.8
CCGT 7.5 0.37 58 46.5 3.1 3.7 53.3
Black Coal 2.8 0.89 45 22.3 3.9 8.9 35.1
Lignite 1.3 0.94 43 10.5 4.04 9.4 23.9
Oil prices were not found in [18]. We averaged the import price of oil in Spain,
Italy and France we found in [63]. The next table presents the marginal cost of
production from renewable energies.
Power plant Fuel cost O&M Carbon cost Heat credit Total cost
(e/MWh) (e/MWh) (e/MWh) (e/MWh) (e/MWh)
Wind Onshore - 26.8 - - 26.8
Wind Offshore - 37.4 - - 37.4
Solar PV - 22.5 - - 22.5
Solar CSP - 28.2 - - 28.2
Biomass-CHP 12.3 9.3 2.4 17.1 6.9
Biomass Solid3 53.1 3.5 - - 56.6
Municipal Waste4 - 37.9 22.1 33.9 26.1
Geothermal - - 4.21 - 4.2
Hydro - 3.9 - - 3.9
Pump Storage - 8.12 - - 8.1
1. Gas, coal, oil prices increases in 10 years by 60%, 70% and 50% while
uranium price does not change according to the IRENE-40 forecast [12].
3. O&M cost of nuclear, wind onshore, wind offshore, solar PV, solar CSP
decreases by 7%, 5%, 8%, 22%, 21% according to the VGB report [64].
Table 2.7 summarizes the forecast of the marginal cost of power production in
2020.
Country Fleet !
Constrained Controllable
Curtailable Generation! Generation (up ramping)!
Coal!
η = 47%!
We clarify how we modeled each type of generators, storage and loads according
to their controllability and operational constraints using the Power Node method.
We group them into cluster of nodes feeding and consuming electricity from one
bus, which represents one EU country. The buses are interconnected via power
lines and exchanges are constrained to the net transfer capacities. A system view
of the interconnected EU power system modeled as Power Nodes is illustrated.
48
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 49
1. T1 : Conventional Load
2. T2 : Controllable Plants
4. T4 : Hydro reservoir
N : ξ1 − w1 = −uload,1 (3.1)
Figure 3.1 illustrate the external load demand ξdrv (t) of France in 2010 which
we obtained from the IRENE-40 database.
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 50
Figure 3.1: External demand process ξdrv (t) representing the aggregated electricity
demand in France in 2010.
The maximum load in France during that year amounted to 89.6 GW. This
value constrains the maximum power this node can absorb from the bus in one
hour. It defines as well the maximum curtailment possible in the worst case sce-
nario. Table 3.1 summarize the characteristics (equation, constraints, parameters,
decision variables) of the conventional load Power Node i=1 in France, which is
applied similarly for the rest of the EU countries.
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 51
Table 3.1: Characteristics of the Power node i = 1, which represents the aggregated
load demand in France.
Figures 2.5, 2.4, 2.8 showed external supply profile ξdrv,i (t) ≥ 0 for these tech-
nologies. Table 3.3 summarize the characteristics of the PV power node, which is
similarly applied for the rest of the non-buffer renewable power nodes.
1
Determined by the optimizer. Chapter 4 will elaborate on this issue.
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 52
Table 3.3: Characteristics of the Power node i = 2, which represents the aggregated
solar PV installations in any EU country.
2
refer to 1.2.2
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 53
Table 3.4: Characteristics of the Power node i = 7, which represents the aggregated
hydro reservoirs installations in Switzerland.
Table 3.6 groups the characteristics of a single gas turbine power plant power
node, which is applied similarly to the rest non-buffer conventional power plants.
3
Source [17]
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 54
Table 3.6: Characteristics of the Power node i = 7, which represents the aggregated
single gas turbine power plants installed in any EU country.
4
Value derived in table 2.3 for scenario 3
CHAPTER 3. MODELING POWER NODES 55
Table 3.7: Characteristics of the Power node i = 15, which represents the aggre-
gated pumped storage plants installed in Switzerland.
6
Source [8]
Own extraction = Extraction of energy within the
entity
Stock change = Addition/Extraction of energy from
stocks
44
…..…..
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1
…..…..
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1
PO
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1
DE
<>
FR
<>
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1 …………..
<>
<>
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1 CZ
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1
<>
<>
<>
AU
<>
CH
……..
T2 T3 T4 T5 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T1
……..
<> <>
…..
…..
T1..T5 Power Node Types Energy flow to/from Bus Curtailment Energy supply/demand <> NTC Import/Export Limit
Figure 3.2: System view of interconnected power nodes representing the western
European power system.
With the power node modeling method, all the different flexibility measures
have been unified in one system and can be assessed. The goal is to now dispatch
this system with the least possible cost in a unified European electricity market and
analyze how does the existing flexibility of the European power systems reacts to
an increasing share of intermittent wind and solar energy.
Chapter 4
1
Semidefinite Programming
58
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 59
ξ1 − w1 = −uload,1 (4.1)
ξ2 − w2 = ugen,2
ξ3 − w3 = ugen,3
ξ4 − w4 = ugen,4
ξ5 − w5 = ugen,5
ξ6 − w6 = ugen,6
C7 ẋ7 = −η−1
gen,7 ugen,7 + ξ7 − w7
ξ8 = η−1
gen,8 ugen,8
ξ9 = η−1
gen,9 ugen,9
ξ10 = η−1
gen,10 ugen,10
ξ11 = η−1
gen,11 ugen,11
ξ12 = η−1
gen,12 ugen,12
ξ13 = η−1
gen,13 ugen,13
ξ14 = η−1
gen,14 ugen,14
C15 ẋ15 = η−1
load,15 uload,15 − ηgen,15 ugen,15
−1
A continuous-time space model with input vector u and state vector x can be
formulated. The vector u groups the decision variables the solver needs to optimize
and the externally driven time series supplied
x groups the dynamic state variable of the storage nodes with capacity C
x = [x1 , x7 , x15 ] (4.3)
The state space model is further discretized in sampling time t and represents
the dynamics of an electric power system dispatch modeled as power nodes
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 61
l=t+N−1
X
minu J(t) = ((x(l) − xre f )T · Q x · (x(l) − xre f )) (4.5)
l=t
+ u(l)T · Qu · u(l) + Ru · u(l)
+ δu(l) · δQu · δu(l)
2
refer to figure 3.2
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 62
1. Load shedding is used as last resort to balance supply and demand within
one area; that is when wind, solar and hydro energy infeeds are insufficient,
pump storages are empty, conventional plants are running at full capacity
under ramping constraints, power imports line are fully loaded.
4. The pump storage plants can either store or supply electricity at once, thereby,
in the case the reservoirs are full and there is a high renewable infeed pre-
dicted, the energy will be curtailed and not cycled through a lossy storage.
Such a strategy reduces the wear and tear of storage plant equipment.
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 63
• Pure economic dispatch where VRPs compete with conventional power plants.
3
One could set the reference state to a reserve value that is used for agriculture purposes and not
solely electricity generation
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 64
In this policy scenario, the curtailment cost of VRE is set extremely high (1000
€/MWh) to force the optimizer to integrate VRE as no reduction in balancing cost
could outweigh the benefit of integrating intermittent generation since curtailing it
is very costly. Load curtailment cost is set 10 times higher than VRE curtailment
to force the optimizer to use this flexibility option as last resort. The O&M of
variable renewable output plants identified in table 2.7 is subsidized so it drops to
0 and VRE is considered as a free source of energy. The 2020 marginal cost of
each power node derived in table 2.7 is further inputted.The penalty matrix Ru per
bus becomes
Under this policy, we remove the priority infeed constraint and allow for a true cost
minimization as highlighted in point 3 of the optimization strategy. The penalty
matrix Ru per bus becomes
Since the marginal cost of renewable plants and its curtailment are set free, the
optimizer will never cycle a surplus of energy through storage conversion losses
because the latter comes at a cost of 16.2 €/MWh for both operation.
Pure economic dispatch where VRPs compete with conventional power plants
In case the O&M cost of wind and solar power plant is no longer subsidized, the
curtailment cost of these unit can no be set to zero. If so, then any excess renewable
energy will be curtailed and not stored even though the storage reservoir capacities
might be available. Therefore the first lower bound to renewable curtailment cost
should be the marginal cost of storing 1MWh of electricity using a pump storage
plant to give an economic incentive to the optimizer to store excess energy and
not curtail it. On the other hand, if the curtailment is set too high, the optimizer
will find an economic incentive in cycling excessive renewable energy through the
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 65
conversion losses of storage plants. Herein, the curtailment cost should be capped
by the sum of the marginal cost of pumping and turbining electricity though a
pump hydro plant. The curtailment cost becomes bounded between 8.1 €/MWh
and 16.2 €/MWh. Since the O&M of PV, CSP, wind onshore and wind offshore
is different, we chose to select curtailment cost for each technology according to
the same proportional difference between them. The penalty matrix Ru per bus
becomes
Ru = diag(0, −10000, 17.6, 8.5, 22.3, 10.4, 25.5, 11.9, 34.5, 15.9, (4.10)
3.6, 0, 3.6, 0, 98.5, 0, 74.1, 0, 149.3, 0, 47.6, 0,
27.4, 0, 4.2, 0, 15.6, 0, 8.1, 8.1).
They are set arbitrary small such that the economic dispatch that mainly deter-
mined by Ru is not distorted. According to [54], the controller does not transfer the
variability of the load profile one the shedding time series as its ramp-rate is pe-
nalized. The power generation from renewable plants is not penalized as the plants
are not controllable but curtailable. Ramp-rates of conventional power plants are
penalized to avoid erratic control actions that could could stress the mechanical
parts. Pump hydro rates are not penalized as the technology is fully flexible in one
hour4 .
4
refer to table 1.9
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 66
Figure 4.2: Priority dispatch of the German power system in 2020 under a high-
share renewable infeed during the month of March.
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 68
Figure 4.3: Economic optimum dispatch of the German power system in 2020
under a high-share renewable infeed during the month of March.
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 69
We explain the difference in dispatch obtained for the same German power
system under the same renewable infeeds but different dispatch policies. The main
points are highlighted:
2. Expensive flexible plants with fast ramping capabilities are dispatched more
often in the priority infeed scenario to respond to sudden shortfall. The yel-
low curve area of the first sub-plot, which indicates the total amount of en-
ergy produced with fast ramping generators, is larger in figure 4.2 than in fig-
ure 4.3. For example, between day 15 and 16, a economic dispatch partially
curtails the high renewable infeed to ramp up inexpensive power plants and
keep them running when solar and wind energy coincide to decrease simul-
taneously during that night. A priority dispatch is constrained to integrate
fully solar and wind energy during the day and thereby turns on the more
flexible and expensive power plants during the night.
3. PSP are more frequently cycled in the priority infeed dispatch to maximize
VRE integration as is observed when comparing the third sub-plot of the
two figures. They undergo almost every day a full cycle especially when
the system is subjected to a high PV infeed on a given day. Such cycling is
ensured by the day-ahead prediction horizon of the MPC that captures the
bell-shape curve of solar infeed.
4. Since the storage state of hydro reservoirs was not penalized and the marginal
cost of hydro power is the cheapest, the reservoirs have been emptied prior
to the month of March.
6. Load shedding was kept as last resort in both scenarios and was not used.
CHAPTER 4. THE DISPATCH SIMULATOR 70
Figure 4.4: Structure of the MATLAB-based simulation tool with the implementa-
tion of a sensitivity analysis.
72
Chapter 5
Simulation vs Real-World
dispatch results
We verify in this chapter the validity of our power system dispatch by comparing
the dispatch measurements of some selected European countries found in the IEA
electricity report for the year 2010 [14] with our own results. We check that the
CO2 emitted from the electric power sector of each country is in line with IEA
reference values found in [19].
74
CHAPTER 5. SIMULATION VS REAL-WORLD DISPATCH RESULTS 75
Figure 5.1: Power node dispatch in Austria vs IEA references in 2010 [14].
5.1.2 France
Figure 5.2: Power node dispatch in France vs IEA references in 2010 [14].
CHAPTER 5. SIMULATION VS REAL-WORLD DISPATCH RESULTS 76
5.1.3 Germany
Figure 5.3: Power node dispatch in Germany vs IEA references in 2010 [14].
5.1.4 Poland
Figure 5.4: Power node dispatch in Poland vs IEA references in 2010 [14].
CHAPTER 5. SIMULATION VS REAL-WORLD DISPATCH RESULTS 77
5.1.5 Sweden
Figure 5.5: Power node dispatch in Sweden vs IEA references in 2010 [14].
5.1.6 Switzerland
Figure 5.6: Power node dispatch in Switzerland vs IEA references in 2010 [14].
CHAPTER 5. SIMULATION VS REAL-WORLD DISPATCH RESULTS 78
The previous figures shows that our power node dispatch has captured the sin-
gularities of every national power system and is not far from the IEA reference
values. We discuss below the similarities and differences between our dispatch for
the year 2010 and the IEA reference measurements found in [14]:
1. The contribution of hydro power to the energy mix of every country is almost
perfectly matching. This validates our method in simulating a hydro infeed
in every single country based on the hourly hydro power sery of Switzer-
land1 .
2. The shares of solar and wind energy are slightly higher in the power node
dispatch. This is due to the fact that the wind speeds used to derive the
wind power curves are not representative of the year 2009 but of 2004 as
was explained in section 2.1.2. On the other hand, it is not specified in
the IRENE-40 report [20] to which year the SODA solar infeed database
correspond to.
Table 5.1 and Table 5.2 displays the power balance reference values from [14]
and the ones obtained with the power node dispatch for the previously illustrated
energy mixes.
1
refer to section 2.3.2
2
consist of biomass and geothermal plants
CHAPTER 5. SIMULATION VS REAL-WORLD DISPATCH RESULTS 79
Surely the values cannot match exactly and the power exchanges are different
due to the previously explained reasons of point 2 and 3. Additionally, the load
series provided by IRENE-40 correspond to the ENTSO-E data of year 2009 is no
longer published online. However, important to note is that the order of magnitude
of the generation, consumption and storage values is similar and that the power
balance is respected which validates our model and dispatch.
3
TR = transmission
4
Power Balance = Generation - Consumption - Storage + Import - Export - Losses
5
0.92 tonCO2 /MWh-coal, 0.62 ton CO2 /MWh-Oil, 0.37 CO2 /MWh-gas
CHAPTER 5. SIMULATION VS REAL-WORLD DISPATCH RESULTS 80
emitted from the power sector of each EU country in 2009 according to [19] and
the ones obtained by dispatching the 2010 system using the power node method.
We notice that the CO2 emitted per country using the Power node dispatch
(red curve) is in line with the IEA reference emissions (black curve) found in [19].
The total emissions from the EU power sector results to 1.3 billion tons in 2010
according to the IEA and 1.05 billion tons according to power node dispatch in that
same year. The latter did capture the highest polluting EU countries (Germany,
United Kingdom and Poland) as in reality.
Based on the results shown in this chapter, we have validated our method in
modeling the European power system and using an MPC-controlled optimizer to
dispatch. The next chapter presents the analysis we have conducted to study the
different impacts a high shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources will have
on the system.
Chapter 6
We expose in this chapter the outcome of prioritizing the RES infeed on the opera-
tion of the European power system. We compare such dispatch to an economic one
where the priority infeed is removed, thereby allowing for economic curtailments
of var-RES. The results demonstrates that under a scenario where variable renew-
able energy covers 53% of Europe’s electricity demand, it will be more optimal to
allow for economic curtailments than just balancing curtailments. We present also
the changes in power flow patterns around France under a high-renewable supply
and prove that the lines will be less loaded on average in a high-RES scenario than
in a low-RES scenario. We assess the impact the former will have on the electricity
generation cost in Europe and the market price. If the RES shares are increased
from 12% to 53%, the generation cost of electricity will likely drop by 82% and
the market price by 27%.
82
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 83
The first term sums up the total cost of operation (including pump storage
plants) of a single country at the first hour. The cost of operation is found by mul-
tiplying the marginal cost (MC) in 2020 of every type of node defined in table 2.7
with the electricity generated (Eg ) from the respective node at this hour. The cost
of operation is then summed up for all Europe and the hour index is incremented
by one step. The loop repeats itself till the hour index reaches 8760.
To find out how renewable policies affect the operation of the system in a high-
share RES scenario, we fixed some variables for this study:
• The EPS analyzed is based on all the generation, transmission and storage
capacities of 2020.
• The load demand used correspond to the 2050 load forecast provided by
IRENE-40 (total of 5050 TWh).
• The marginal cost of generation and storage used is the one assigned in table
2.7 for 2020.
To evaluate the impact of the priority infeed policy and an economic dispatch,
once with a subsidized O&M cost for varibale renewable plants and once not, we
varied the input terms of the MPC-controller according to equations 4.8, 4.9 and
4.10. The post-processing of the three different policies applied to a low and high
renewable scenario is based on analyzing the integration of renewable energies to
the grid, the CO2 emissions and the operation cost of the system as defined in
equation 6.1.
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 84
5. In 2050, if the O&M cost of VRP was subsidized, operating the EPS under a
priority infeed costed €bn 8.27 more than under an economic dispatch. This
quantifies the value of curtailing the energy output of wind and solar plants
when their shares are high. The reason behind such difference is further
illustrated in table 6.2 and explained.
6. When moving from a low to a high renewable energy scenario, the savings in
operation cost per year varies between €bn 57 to 95 depending which policy
is chosen. These savings represent mainly fuel cost savings for Europe. They
are significantly important due to the economy of scale effect.
The table below displays the aggregation of the dispatched units of the 2020
EPS under a a high-renewable infeed but subject to the priority infeed policy and
the economic dispatch where the O&M of variable renewable plants is subsidized
in both cases. The difference in operation cost between the two dispatch sums up
to €bn 8.269.
One directly notices that under the priority infeed, higher amounts (170.5 TWh)
of variable RES are integrated compared to an economic dispatch. However, since
the economic curtailment of renewable energy is not allowed to turn on low flexible
plants prior to a predicted shortfall, highly flexible plants are used more often that
in an economic dispatch to balance sudden renewable energy shortage. 222 TWh
of Gas, CCGT and Oil has been dispatched which costed additionally €bn 20.94.
Also, as we had highlighted in figure 4.22 , storage plants are effectively more cy-
cled to integrate renewable energy and this comes for an extra cost of €mn 523.42.
Likewise, less variable renewable energy is integrated under an economic dispatch
and 479 TWh of low-flexible generation (Coal, Nuclear, Biomass, Geothermal) can
be dispatched which leads to reductions in operation of €bn 13.27. The final value
obtained proves that it will be necessary to shift policies in the future as economic
curtailments can help save €bn 8.27 per year when operating the European power
system under high-shares of RES.
On the other hand, it would be misleading to conclude that in an economic
dispatch where VRPs benefit from a subsidy, PV energy is most curtailed and CSP
energy is most integrated as the difference in energy generated between the two
policies is highest for PV plants and lowest for CSP plants. One need to compare
the ratio of renewable energy integration to availability. The next section elaborate
on this issue.
Table 6.3: The influence of policies on the integration of each type of renewable
energy infeed.
From the table we can read that the optimizer integrated most PV energy, a
similar amount of wind onshore or offshore and lastly CSP energy. Of course, in
2
This figure illustrated the controller behavior under a priority dispatch
3
refer to figures 2.4 and 2.5
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 87
the priority infeed policy, the ratio of integration is higher as the curtailment cost
was set extremely high to push for the integration of renewable energies and allow
only for emergency curtailments and no economic one. The reason behind such
numbers can not be explained as it depends on the path the optimizer chose to
follow to find an optimal solution. We reckon that the predictable bell-curve shape
of PV infeed could allow for a smooth cycling of storage plants, thereby PV is the
less curtailed RES. Since the CSP infeed is constant during one day, its curtailments
provide an easier balancing solution whereas the wind onshore and offshore infeed
is variable, thereby the balancing solution becomes more challenging.
The last policy we analyze is the pure economic dispatch where the subsidy for
VRPs is removed and they must compete against conventional plants. In that case,
we had set a curtailment cost according to the least expensive O&M cost of VRPs
and in between the cycling cost of storage plants 4 . Figure 6.1 illustrates the energy
integrated of each type of plant according to the policy chosen.
The first two blocks resonate the values shown in table 6.2. The third block
shows a different dispatch. Because the cost of curtailment of wind offshore plants
was set the highest in this scenario, the controller indeed shedded the most out of
this variable supply. Since PV plants have to pay €17.6 per MWh of electricity
produced, the optimizer integrates by 1.5% more PV energy in a pure economic
dispatch as in a subsidized scenario. Even though the curtailment cost for wind
4
refer to section 4.3.2 of chapter 4
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 88
onshore was set €1.5 higher than of CSP, optimizer still integrated more wind
onshore energy.
The renewable policy chosen definitely influence the dispatch outcome. The
next section has been simulated under the assumption that the priority infeed to
renewables will be removed but that the O&M cost of renewable plants will still be
subsidized.
6000$
5000$
4000$
2000$
1000$
0$
Jan$ Feb$ Mar$ Apr$ May$ Jun$ Jul$ Aug$ Sep$ Oct$ Nov$ Dec$
!1000$
Figure 6.2: Net balancing exchanges between France and its neighbors in 2010
according to the ENTSO-E values [15].
In that year, the month of January was very cold which explains why France
3000$
was a net importer from its neighbors (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzer-
land, United Kingdom).
2500$
Given this trend, we analyzed according to our power node dispatch how the
lines would be loaded around France in a low and high-share renewable supply;
low being the RES availability in 2020 and high the RES availability in 2050 ac-
2000$
cording to the provided IRENE-40 data. Figure 6.3 illustrate the power exchanges
1500$ BE$
CH$
DE$
MW$ 1000$
ES$
GB$
500$ IT$
0$
Jan$ Feb$ Mar$ Apr$ May$ Jun$ Jul$ Aug$ Sep$ Oct$ Nov$ Dec$
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 89
of France with its neighbors under the availability of RES in 2020. The line loads
are found by averaging the hourly imported or exported power on a weekly basis
and is expressed as % values of the planned NTC in 2020. Table 6.4 displays the
expansions of the NTC lines of France with its neighbors according to [61].
Figure 6.3: Line loading in 2020 around France in a low-share renewable energy
supply scenario.
The high density of red squares from the spring to fall period that appears on
the upper half of figure 6.3 and dark blue squares on the bottom can be noticed.
This indicates that the exporting lines were loaded closed to their NTC limit and
the importing lines not more than 10%. This proves that France was a net exporter
during this period. On the other hand, during the winter, we notice different line
loading patterns due to the high demand of electric heaters in France. Very inter-
esting is the first week of exchanges between France and its neighbors where lines
are almost fully loaded in the direction of imports. This is explained by the strong
ramping constrained applied to nuclear power plants which need time to reach full
capacity. From this picture two conclusions can be drawn. First, under the RES
availability of 2020, the power flow patterns did not change compared to today.
Second, in case TSOs are planning to expand power line capacities, priority should
be given to the exporting lines from France as these were loaded close to their limit
for a long period of time. However, with more intermittent supply in the European
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 90
energy mix, power flow patterns will change and the conventional way of planning
line expansion is no longer valid. Figure 6.4 illustrates this point.
Figure 6.4: Line loading in 2020 around France in a high-share renewable energy
supply scenario.
Our first observation is that the exporting lines of France are no longer fully
loaded from the spring to the fall period, whereas the importing lines are more
often loaded between 20% and 40%. This applies specifically to Italy which is
exporting PV energy during summer weeks whereas in a low-renewable scenario
the line was merely loaded. Only the power exchanges with Switzerland follows
the same pattern but this is due to the fact that the share of RES in Switzerland are
below 1 % according to the IRENE-40 scenario. Second observation is that the
total number of red squares have decreased in a high-renewable scenario compared
to a low one which indicates that the system is more secure since the lines are no
longer loaded at 100% of their NTC as much as before.
The main message from this section is that the transmission network should
not be expanded in the traditional way to host more renewable energy. It does not
mean that if specific lines have been highly loaded today that they will be so in the
future if more variable renewable supply is fed in. By conventionally expanding
the transmission capacity, TSOs could over-evaluate the needed transfer capacity
in this region and under-evaluate the one in another region. Also, the common
belief that if more var-RES are fed in, then the power system lines will be more
heavily loaded is not an absolute truth. We showed in figure 6.4 that the power lines
connecting France and its neighbors in 2020 were less loaded, on a weekly average,
under the 2050 var-RES availability than the 2020 one, given that the former is five
times higher than the latter. This does not mean that the power line NTCs should
not be further expanded to boost RES integration. It just means that the western
European power system security is less threatened. In appendix B, the reader can
find the same plots for the line loadings in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe
under a low and high RES supply, which illustrate the same observation. How to
optimally expand each transmission line in Europe falls outside of the scope of this
thesis. We present however in the next chapter how we find the limit to expand the
total transmission capacity needed to maximize renewable energy integration and
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 91
100
75
50
25
0
June July August September October
Spot prices in PT in 2030
150
125
Eur/MWh
100
75
50
25
0
June July August September October
Spot prices in PT in 2040
150
125
Eur/MWh
100
75
50
25
0
June July August September October
Spot prices in PT in 2050
150
125
Eur/MWh
100
75
50
25
0 X: 209 X: 828 X: 1841 X: 2455
June Y: 22.37 July Y: 24.79 August Y: 17.66
September Y: 25.51 October
From the evolution we notice first that the variability of the spot price increases
with the increase of RES availability. In 2050, the price jumps from 17 to 150∼
€/MWh much more frequently that the scenarios with lower shares of RES. Sec-
ond, we notice that the frequency of the spread between base (84 €/MWh5 ) and
peak price (150 €/MWh6 ) observed in 2020 decreases as RES availability increase
till 2040. On that year, oil power plants were dispatched only twice from June to
October. However, in 2050, oil power plants were dispatched more than twice but
the price of electricity has settled many times below 26€/MWh. The four boxes
added to the last sub-plot indicates the marginal cost of production in 2020 for
each type of variable renewable plant we have defined in table 2.7. This indicates
that the demand was met more often with just variable renewable power but that
oil power plants were more often needed for fast ramping balancing requirements.
Overall, figure 6.5 finally shows us that the electricity price in Portugal on average
5
Gas power plant
6
Oil power plant
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 93
will decrease with more renewables in the country energy mix. The latter was at
97.56 €/MWh in 2020, 87.25 €/MWh in 2030, 78.32 €/MWh in 2040 and 67.11
€/MWh in 2050. When increasing the share of RES in Portugal by 10%, 18%, 35%
compared to the RES availability share in 20207 , the electricity price decreased by
11%, 20%, 32%. The decrease in spot price of each European country is shown in
the appendix in B.8.
We take the weighted average of the latter to express the EU electricity gener-
ation cost using:
P29 e
i=1 egen,i ( MWh ) · E g(i) (MWh)
ēgen,EU = P29 (6.3)
i=1 E g(i) (MWh)
By fixing the same configuration as the previous subsection and varying the
renewable supply from low to high-shares in a scenario where VRPs have to com-
pete with conventional plants, we plot in figure 6.6 the forecast of the electricity
generation cost in the EU and the weighted average spot market price.
7
18% of the 2050 load demand in Portugal, 91 TWh [20]
CHAPTER 6. THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-SHARE OF RES ON THE EPS 94
Figure 6.6: Forecast of the electricity generation cost and market price in Europe
when the O&M cost of VRPs is considered.
When increasing the share of RES by 7%, 19% and 41% compared to the
RES availability share in 2020 in Europe8 , the electricity generation cost in Europe
dropped by 53%, 72%, 82% and the market price of electricity dropped by 9%,
19%, 27%, even when not considering renewable energy supply as a free source
of power but taking into account the O&M cost of such plants. Figure 6.6 clearly
emphasizes the economical benefits of a non-subsidized high-renewable supply.
The macro-economics benefits of such reductions in price and generation cost falls
outside of our scope of study. The results can be used for further studies.
We explained in this chapter the different technological and economical im-
pacts a high-share renewable energy supply have on the European power system of
2020 and specially the impact renewable policies can have on the operation of the
system and the integration of renewable energies. The main goal is to now develop
the system such that we can maximize the renewable energy integration and min-
imize the operation cost of the system while making sure that the CO2 emission
target of 2050 will be reached.
8
12% of the 2050 load demand in Europe, 5050 TWh [20]
Chapter 7
This chapter presents the core results of our work; how to value the flexibility of the
power system for the integration of high-shares of renewable energy supply (RES).
We present first the results we obtained for the European power system (EPS). We
discuss the sensitivity of RES integration to an increase in capacity of the flexibility
sources in the EPS and evaluate the operational benefits that each upgrade brings to
the system. The latter represent the value of flexibility of the source in question. We
discuss also the RES sensitivity integration in Germany and Spain, the two leading
investors in renewable energies, which is unique to each country and different than
the general sensitivity of the EPS. We value the flexibility sources in each country.
Finally, CO2 emissions in the EPS are analyzed with an increased flexibility of the
system. Modifications to the power system fleet are mandatory, otherwise the 2050
CO2 emissions reduction target can not be reached. Please note, in all different
power systems setups were adequate. No load shedding occured above 0.2% in
each EU country.
96
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 97
7.1 EU level
To perform our analysis, we fixed first the load demand in the EU and the var-RES
infeed to the 2050 forecast provided by IRENE-40 project and started our simula-
tions with the European power system (EPS) configuration of 2020. We do so to
evaluate the flexibility of the latter and measure how increasing it affect the oper-
ation of the system. All scenarios simulated corresponds to an economic dispatch
where the O&M cost of VRPs is assumed to still be subsidized1 . As we have men-
tioned in the introduction, the additional flexibility coming from demand response
(electric vehicles or thermal loads) is not evaluated due to time constraints. We
focus on the added operational flexibility an expansion of the power line transmis-
sion capacities and storage (power or energy rating) capacities brings to the system
as well as the situation where controllable generators have faster ramping rates.
Figure 7.1: RES integration sensitivity relative to the power lines NTC and storage
power rating expansions in Europe.
1
By 2050 the O&M cost of VRPs will be lower due to learning curve so the subsidy is small
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 98
First to notice is the bottom RES integration value of 83.95% which represents
the flexibility measure of the 2020 EPS under the 2050 RES availability and cor-
responds to the value shown in table 6.1 of the previous chapter. The figure then
displays the sensitivity of RES integration in the power system to the linear capac-
ity increase of power lines NTC and storage power rating capaities. For example,
we read that doubling the storage power rating in Europe to 94 GW helps boost the
integration of 43 TWh of intermittent supply (1.6% of 2675 TWh) and that dou-
bling the total NTC capacities installed to 340 GW can help boost the integration of
115 TWh (5% of 2675 TWh), while doubling both flexibility parameters together
can help integrate 20 TWh more than the latter. With a higher pump storage power
rating (SP ), it would be possible to charge and discharge the pump storage reser-
voirs more rapidly, thereby allowing to store higher excesses of renewable energy,
while increasing the NTC between the EU country increases the interconnected-
ness of the system and allows each area to make use of the other area’s flexibility
sources. The less TSO’s curtails RES, the higher the fuel cost savings area. 1%
of curtailed RES from a demand of 5050 TWh in 2050 translates in operational
cost savings of €bn 0.79 to 4.3, if this energy was to be generated with nuclear
power or gas power plants with fuel and CO2 prices of 2020. Table 7.1 depicts the
exact reductions in operation cost of the system when the flexibility of the system
is increased.
Table 7.1 highlights the operational benefits in investing in these two flexibility
sources. It falls outside of the scope of our study to perform a detailed investment
analysis. Roughly calculated, with a capital cost of 1 €bn /GW for power lines
[1] and a capital cost of 0.12 €bn /GW for the equipment of pump storage plants3 ,
doubling the capacity of both sources will come at a cost of €bn 175 which can
break even in 15 years, as the operation of the system cost €bn 11.5 less per year.
Please note that the capital cost for power lines have been averaged according to the
costs listed in table D.1 and table D.2 for planned projects of 1000 MW capacity
2
Same value as listed in table 6.1 when the O&M cost of VRPs is subsidized.
3
The equipment cost consist of the cost of the pump, turbine, generator, transformer. The equip-
ment cost ration has been found according to [66] and applied to the total cost of PSPs listed in
[64]
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 99
in Europe and the operational benefits calculated are based on the cost of fuel and
CO2 emissions in 2020, as well they have not been discounted.
Figure 7.2: RES integration sensitivity relative to storage power and storage energy
expansions in Europe.
Figure 7.2 illustrate the different sensitivity of RES integration to the storage power
(SP ) and energy rating (SE ) expansions in Europe. The integration is more sensitive
to the power rating capacity than the energy reservoir capacity, meaning to the rate
at which we can store excess energy and not the available quantity of energy which
we could store in the reservoir. However, this figure correspond to the aggregation
of all power and energy rating of pump storage plants in Europe and interpreting
the results in this way can be misleading. It is crucial to look at country to country
results to figure out how does the increase of storage energy or power rating influ-
ence the RES integration. The next section will elaborate on this issue for Germany
and Spain, the two leaders in renewable energy investments. From a system-level
perspective, if all countries simultaneously increase the power and energy rating of
their PSPs, then the European power system operation cost gets further reduced as
illustrates the values in table 7.2.
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 100
Table 7.3: Flexibility measure for the ramping rates of conventional generators.
4
1e-1 term appearing the δQu controller vector
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 101
The first observation is that the RES integration value of the 2020 EPS un-
der a high-renewable infeed jumped from 84% to 91.6% and the total operation
cost of this system decreased from €bn 88.9 to €bn 72.2. The reason is that by
allowing for excessive bi-directional ramping of conventional power plants, RES
are curtailed less and therefore the operation cost of the system decreases5 . The
more we increase the rampable capacity of the power plants given that there is
no abrasive cost assigned, the higher RES integration and lower the operation cost.
Table 7.3 shows that in the best scenario, where we applied no ramping constraints,
the flexibility measure of the EPS can increase by a maximum of 1.62% from the
worst case scenario and the savings in operation reaches €bn 1.98. However, such
scenario does not reflect reality as conventional power plants will never be dis-
patched in this way. We therefore concluded that to analyze the ramping influence
on the integration of RES, it is necessary to run a 15 minute dispatch and constrain
each generator in the power system to a minimum load operation and its start-up
time. The optimization formulation of such problem results in a mixed-integer
programming problem. The computational time of a European power system with
dis-aggregated power plants would be extremely slow. We reckon isolated country
systems should only be studied to evaluate the ramping influence.
5
Figure A.2 and figure A.3 illustrates the dispatch of such explanation
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 102
Figure 7.3: RES integration vs increase of each flexibility parameter and their
combination.
First to notice is the starting RES integration value (84%) which corresponds
to the flexibility measure of the 2020 European power system (EPS) under the
var-RES infeed of 2050. We simulated the EPS configuration of 2010 under a
high-shares of RES and found that the flexibility measure reached a limit of 76%.
Therefore, if the NREAP of 2020 and the 10 year development of the ENTSO-E
are to be respected, the EPS gains already an 8% increase in its flexibility measure.
If then, the operational flexibility sources of the 2020 EPS are developed, this
graph synthesis the flexibility grades of each power system upgrade. We observe
that RES integration is most sensitive to increasing the net transmission capacity
between the countries with an almost linear slope of two percentage points, while
for storage power rating the slope of integration is one percentage point and for
storage energy rating the slope of integration is 0.5 % point. If the parameters are
increased all at once, doubling them adds 5% to the flexibility grade of the EPS,
tripling them adds 10 %, quadrupling them adds 12% and quintupling them adds
13.5%. From these results, we notice that there exist a ceiling to the integration
of such high-shares of RES (2675 TWh6 ). After tripling the flexibility sources,
the rate of increase of the flexibility grade starts to diminish and RES integration
6
53% of the European load demand in 2050
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 103
saturates. We can conclude from such graph that it would be unnecessary to have a
total NTC capacity in Europe that exceeds 510 GW, a power rating storage capacity
that exceeds 141 GW and an energy one that exceeds 7980 GWh as the operational
benefits will start to saturate and the investment in such over-capacities will be
wasteful. The next section illustrate this point.
Table 7.4: The value of flexibility (€bn per year) of the European power system.
Table 7.4 makes it clear that the European power system flexibility value sat-
urates as doubling first all flexibility parameters results in €bn 12.04 of savings
per year of operation, tripling it adds €bn 6.38, quadrupling it adds €bn 3.16 and
quintupling it adds €bn 1.5. Roughly calculated, if we consider this time the full
cost of pump storage plants (2.4 €/GW), which takes into account the expansion
of the energy reservoir, the investment cost for doubling the capacity of the three
flexibility sources in Europe becomes €bn 282.4 and will pay back in about 25
years; tripling the capacity will need 50 years to pay back7 , quadrupling 100 years
quintupling 200 years. Obviously such investments are wasteful and there is no
economic sense in pushing for 100% integration of variable renewable supply.
The values obtained above represent a European system-level perspective. Na-
tional TSOs, energy utilities and investors would be much more interested in know-
ing the unique flexibility value of each country’s power system. We present in the
next section the RES sensitivity integration results and the flexiblity value of Ger-
many and Spain, the two countries who are forecasted to have, each, 10% of the
total RES availability in Europe in 2050 in their own country.
7
savings are half the savings when doubling the capacity
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 104
Table 7.5: Capacity forecast (in GW) in 2050 of solar and wind power plants in
Germany and Spain [20].
Germany Spain
Cap. in year PV CSP Wind On. Wind Off. PV CSP Wind On. Wind Off.
2011 25 0 27 0.15 4 0.6 20 0
2050 160 0 78 55 109 19 76 16
With such an increase in capacity, the RES availability according to the SODA
solar radiation in Europe database and the TradeWind wind profile series reaches
495 TWh in Germany and 523 TWh in Spain, when it was at 72 TWh and 48
TWh in 2010 in both countries. It will definitely matter for both countries to min-
imize the curtailment of var-RES under an economic dispatch, as the latter has
been proven to be more economical for the operation of the system compared to a
priority dispatch. In that perspective, the operational flexibility of each power sys-
tem has to be developed according to the existing configuration and the sensitivity
of RES integration to it has to be investigated. We present here our analysis and
proposed solutions.
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 105
Figure 7.4: RES integration sensitivity relative to power lines NTC and storage
power expansions in Spain and Germany.
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 106
The two selected countries show a much different RES integration sensitivity re-
sults than the European system-level results illustrated in figure 7.1 for the expan-
sion of NTC and storage power rating. The RES integration in the 2020 German
power system (GPS) was insensitive to the expansion of the power rating of its
pumped storage plants while very much sensitive to the expansion of the power
line NTCs connecting Germany to its neighbors. On the other hand, the RES in-
tegration in the 2020 Spanish power system (SPS) was as sensitive to the increase
of each parameter. Without increasing the capacity of its flexibility sources, the
2020 GPS able to absorb 416 TWh of the available 495 TWh (84%) of intermit-
tent supply while the 2020 SPS absorbed 424 TWh of the 523 TWh (81%). If the
power lines NTCs connecting Germany to its neighbors were doubled in capacity,
then the GPS can absorb an extra 30 TWh of renewable energy, which represents
almost half of what is integrated in the GPS today. If the storage power rating of
pumped hydro plants in Spain is doubled, an extra 22 TWh of clean and free sup-
ply of energy can be absorbed by the Spanish power system, which also represent
almost half of what is integrated in the SPS today. If such flexiblity sources are not
expanded, then each power system will have to curtail such amounts of energy and
use conventional fuel to meet the electricity demand, which in turn, will results in
higher operating cost. We present further in this section the operational benefits
such flexibility expansion brings to each power system.
It is important to note that these figures represent the aggregated results of the
four different renewable supply integrated to each grid. In the case of Germany,
PV and wind energy(onshore and offshore) exhibited the same sensitivity trend,
however in Spain, PV and CSP energy were more sensitive to the expansion of the
pumped storage plants power rating than the expansion of the power line NTCs,
while for wind energy it was the inverse situation. Figure C.1 and figure C.2 illus-
trate this point in the appendix.
Figure 7.5: RES integration sensitivity relative to storage power and storage energy
expansions in Spain and Germany.
7.5 shows that as soon as the energy reservoir capacity of pumped storage plants
is doubled in Germany, the sensitivity of RES integration to the power rating of
storage plants steeply increases. If Germany is able to store 195 TWh of energy,
then doubling the power rating capacity can help integrate an additional 17 TWh
of var-RES compared to just 1 TWh when its energy capacity is at 39 GWh. How-
ever, expanding the reservoirs of pumped storage plants in Germany is no longer
possible as the country has fully exploited the potential of its mountainous areas.
Therefore other large-scale storage technologies, like CAES and large batteries,
comes very in handy for such situation.
On the other hand, the RES integration in Spain exhibited a high sensitivity to
the increase of the pumped storage plants power rating and no sensitivity to the
energy ratings. This results is very significant as it means that just by installing
more pumps and turbines in the already existing pumped storage plants, the SPS
can absorb up to 52 TWh of intermittent supply, which exceeds the amount of
integrated RES in 2010. Such investments represents low hanging fruits as the
equipment cost 8 of pump storage plants represents less than 5% of the total cost
[66] and the operational benefits of the power system will be significant. The latter
defines the flexibility value, which is presented next.
Table 7.6: The value of flexibility (€bn per year) in Germany and Spain.
Germany Spain
Parameter NTC SP SE GPS Flex9 NTC SP SE SPS Flex10
Cap. of 2020 20 GW 7.9 GW 39 GWh - 6.6 GW 5.7 GW 1530 GWh -
Double 3.18 0.07 0.15 3.48 1.39 0.82 0.03 2.04
Triple 3.69 0.02 0.19 4.14 1.95 1.23 0.05 2.55
Quadruple 3.32 0.002 0.23 3.97 2.29 1.38 0.07 2.63
Quintuple 2.87 0.01 0.26 3.62 2.53 1.44 0.096 2.74
First to notice is the very low flexibility value of the storage power rating in
Germany and the storage energy rating in Spain which is in line with the insensi-
tiveness of RES integration to those parameters in the respective countries. How-
ever, the GPS flex value exhibit a non-linear pattern with the increase in flexibility
capacity and the NTC flexibility value in Spain is higher than the storage power
8
pump, turbine, generator, transformer
9
GPS Flex = Increase all three capacities simultaneously in the German power system
10
SPS Flex = Increase all three capacities simultaneously in the Spanish power system
CHAPTER 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 109
rating flexibility value, although the RES integration in the country was sensitive
equally to both parameters. We explain the reasons behind such results in the fol-
lowing:
1. When tripling the flexibility capacities of the GPS, the yearly operational
savings reaches €bn 4.14, however when quadrupling them they decrease
by €bn 0.37 even though the RES integration in Germany has increased
by 3.3%. The reason is that Germany is a very interconnected country and
the more we increase the interconnectedness of the GPS with its neighbors,
the higher the probability that a neighboring country has imported free of
cost German RES, thereby the optimizer is obliged to dispatch more often
conventional plants in Germany. We have not assigned a cost for transmitting
power and since we have assumed that the generation cost of electricity is
the same in all EU countries, the optimizer does not have an incentive to
integrate the RES locally and looks to minimize the operation cost of the
interconnected European system. The question becomes on the willingness
of Germany to invest in a expansion in which the country does not benefit
directly but the EU does. The topic falls outside of our scope of study.
2. Similarly, since we have not defined a transmission cost, the NTC flexibility
value in Spain turned out to be higher than the pump storage power rating
flexibility value, even though the RES integration obtained when increas-
ing each flexibility source separately is the same. The reason is that storing
1 MWh of var-RES will cost 8 €/MWh whereas exporting it to Portugal
or France costs nothing. Nonetheless, the storage power rating flexibility
source has a great value in Spain, from an investment perspective. Consider-
ing only the equipment cost for such plants (0.12 €bn/GW), quintupling this
sources will need an investment of €bn 3.42 which breaks even in less than
2.5 years if all the operational benefits of integrating an additional 52 TWh
are given to pump storage plants.
the phase out of coal and oil power plants. In the case of Poland and Czech Repub-
lic, the gas capacity had to scaled up by a factor of 8 and 6 respectively to avoid
load shedding, as these two countries were very much dependent on coal power
plants. Figure 7.6 illustrate a graphical representation of the scenarios we have ran
with different power system configurations to find out how the CO2 emissions from
the European power sector will evolve with more renewables in the mix, a change
of the generation mix and an increase of flexibility of the system.
Figure 7.6: CO2 emissions of the European power sector under different power
system configurations.
The Green EPS term that appears on the legend of the figure consist of a Euro-
pean power system with coal and oil power plants phased out and replaced by a mix
of gas, biomass and geothermal. On the right-side of the figure appears the CO2
emissions reduction of each scenario compared to the base year emissions of our
2010 simulation (EPS 2010 RES availability 2010). One notices that the more the
flexiblity value of the Green EPS is increased, the higher the CO2 emission reduc-
tion potential, reaching a maximum of 94% if the flexibility sources are quintupled.
Having previously proved that there is no economic sense in over-tripling the flex-
ibility sources, the CO2 emissions of a coal and oil-free EPS, with three times the
capacity of flexibility sources in 2020, can reach reductions of 91% compared to
the 2010 level.
Part III
Conclusions and
Recommendations
112
114
• The operation cost of the same power system configuration under the priority in-
feed is €bn 8.9 more than under a economic dispatch, even though RES integration
was higher. The reason is that economic curtailment allows to ramp up low-flexible
power plants prior to a predicted renewable shortfall, whereas in a priority infeed,
highly flexible plants, which are more expensive, will need to be dispatched to
cover the more rapid shortage. Please note such results are obtained only in a
high-share RES scenario. In a low-share RES scenario (12% of the electricity de-
mand in Europe in 2050), prioritizing the infeed of RES was more economical than
allowing curtailments as the system saves on operation cost €mn 270.
• Moving from a low-RES to high-RES share scenario, the yearly operational sav-
ings of the European power system (EPS) have been evaluated to reach €bn 57
to 95 depending weather wind and solar power plants benefits from a subsidy that
covers their O&M cost or not. If not, the operational benefits are the lower value.
• Power flow exchange patterns will definitely change with more renewable energies
in the generation mix. The traditional labels given to exporting or importing coun-
tries will alter depending on the renewable energy mix installed in the country. For
example, Italy, a well known importer from France and Switzerland, will export
power in the summer to both countries due to the high capacity of PV plants.
• Using the same power system configuration (EPS 2020), the power lines connect-
ing France with its neighbors will not be loaded more heavily under higher-shares
of RES. They are more often loaded close to their NTC capacity under low-shares
of RES.
• The variability of the spot price of electricity will increase with more RES in the
mix but the mean price will decease as well as the electricity generation cost. In-
creasing the share of RES by 7 %, 19 % and 41 % compared to the 2020 RES avail-
ability, the market price of electricity dropped by 9%, 19%, 27% and the electricity
generation cost in Europe dropped by 53%, 72%, 82%, even when considering the
O&M cost of VRPs.
115
11
53 % of the electricity demand in Europe in 2050
116
• A shift in policies is needed to allow for a true system optimization. The priority
infeed should no longer be given to variable renewable plants in a high-share re-
newable scenario. TSOs should have the right to curtail VRPs output for economic
reasons.
• Today’s power flow patterns should not be taken as reference to expand the trans-
mission capacity of the power lines. With more RES in the mix, power exchanges
patterns will definitely change. The expansion should be studied based on different
RES availability supply scenarios and quantifying a highest probabilistic conges-
tion happening frequently between two countries.
• The total power lines net transfer capacities in Europe should not exceed 510 GW,
the pump storage plants power rating should not exceed 141 GW and the storage
energy rating should not exceed 7980 GWh. Above such increase in flexibility ca-
pacities, the additional RES integration benefits are no longer important and there-
fore any savings on operation cost as well. It would be a wasteful over-investment.
• To maximize the RES integration in Europe and thereby minimize the operation
cost of the system, some countries requires investments in different flexibility
sources. For example, Germany should definitely invest in technologies like CAES
or large-scale batteries that allows it to increase its storage energy capacity as there
exist no longer any potential for pump storage plants. Spain, on the other hand,
should absolutely increase the power rating of its pump storage plants as it is not
fully benefiting from its huge energy capacity.
• The European power system can reach emission reduction above 90% only if coal
and oil power plants are phased out and replaced by a mix of gas and biomass
plants. If not, with the highest flexibility value, the emission are reduced by a
maximum of 44% under a high-share var-RES supply.
117
• Finding the threshold of RES supply where the priority infeed is no longer eco-
nomically optimal when operating the European power system
• Conducting an investment analysis that include the capital cost to install the re-
quired renewable plants and study the break-even point of the standard 2020 Euro-
pean power system based on the yearly operational benefits obtained when moving
from a low to a high-share ERS.
• Investigating the influence the rise of fuel cost and CO2 emissions pricing has on
the break even.
• Interpolating the hourly externally driven time series into a quarterly basis one and
constraining the pool of power plants to the actual load ramp given in literature.
Define a accurate quadratic cost for ramping power plants and assess the sensitivity
of RES integration to an increase ramping capability of conventional power plants.
• Evaluating the flexibility potential of thermal loads and electric vehicles on a Eu-
ropean system-level scale.
Appendix A
118
APPENDIX A. MPC POWER SYSTEM DISPATCH 119
Figure A.1: Economic optimum dispatch of the German power system in 2020
under a high-share renewable scenario in which VRE plants compete with conven-
tional technologies.
APPENDIX A. MPC POWER SYSTEM DISPATCH 120
Figure A.2: German TSO keeps 75% of the fleet turned on and the quadratic cost
constraint is not changed.
APPENDIX A. MPC POWER SYSTEM DISPATCH 122
Figure A.3: German TSO keeps 75% of the fleet turned on and the quadratic cost
constraint is removed.
Appendix B
A comparison between the NTC line loading in Northern, Central and Easter Eu-
rope under a low-RES energy supply1 and a high-RES energy supply2 is shown.
The message from the French case study in section 6.2 applied also here:
• The common belief that the power system will more heavily loaded with
more RES in the mix is not verified. On average, the European lines are
less loaded close to their NTC in a high-RES than in a low-RES. The figures
below justifies such argument as the density of red-squares is always lower
in high-RES than in a low-RES.
1
12% of the electricity demand in EU in 2050
2
53% of the electricity demand in EU in 2050
123
APPENDIX B. IMPACT OF A HIGH-SHARE RES 124
Figure B.7: Forecast of the spot market price in Europe with increasing RES fixing
the power system configuration to 2020 and the load demand to 2050.
APPENDIX B. IMPACT OF A HIGH-SHARE RES 128
Figure B.8: Forecast of the electricity generation cost in Europe with increasing
RES fixing the power system configuration to 2020 and the load demand to 2050.
Appendix C
129
APPENDIX C. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS 130
Figure C.1: PV and CSP energy integration sensitivity relative to power lines NTC
and storage power expansions in Spain.
Figure C.2: Wind onshore and offshore energy integration sensitivity relative to
power lines NTC and storage power expansions in Spain.
Appendix D
Data reference
131
46 | TEUSCH, BEHRENS & EGENHOFER
APPENDIX
Appendix 6. Selected D. DATA
interconnector REFERENCE
projects in northern Europe 132
Table A7. Selected interconnector projects in northern Europe
GB NL BritNed 1,000 2011 600 National Grid and TenneT 260 km submarine cable, HVDC; merchant;
operating since April 2011, with more cables planned
by 2020
SE FI Fenno Skan 2 800 2011 300 Fingrid and Svenska HVDC subsea
Kraftnät,
DK NO SK4 600 2014 443 Statnett and Energinet.dk 450/500 kV DC, regulated
PL LT LitPol 1,000 2015-20 237 PSE Operator S.A. and HVDC, overhead, to be completed in two steps
Lietuvos Energija AB
SE NO Southwest Link 1,200 2016-17 - Statnett and Svenska Combination of HVAC and HVDC
Kraftnät
BE GB NEMO 1,000 2016-18 - National Grid International Planned as cap and floor
Limited (NGIL) and Elia
W A R N I N G: Legend :
1200
Version These indicative values have been computed by extrapolation from NTC in MW - Value agreed by both countries
ENTSO-E country
FINAL standard situations, in order to evaluate the transfer capacity 600 NTC in MW - Different values are estimated between the two countries involved. The lower value is shown on top and the
through a single interface for a typical exchange situation 800 CZ country providing the higher value is specified,
6 July 2010 (European Reference Case Map also available on ENTSO-E Other country
Website). Thus these figures are only indicative and they are not 600 NTC in MW - Value provided by only one country
cumulative (they cannot be summed up). Maximum export and SE The country providing no value is specified.
import values per country also intend to clarify this.
NRL no realistic limit (5)
From Maximum
IE/NI GB MA PT ES FR BE NL LU DE DKw DKe NO SE FI CH IT AT SI PL CZ SK HU GR RO HR BA RS ME MK AL BG UA LV LT EE BY RU
(9) (8) (1) (8) (2) (11) (13) Import
To (6) in MW
IE/NI 410
GB 80 2000
MA 900
MA
PT 1200
BE 2900 2200
LU 980
DE (9) (8) 2600 3900 NRL 1500 (4) 550 600 4400 1600 1200 (4) 2100 (4)
PL (16)
FI 2050 350
FI FI
APPENDIX D. DATA REFERENCE
LT 1100
BY
133
350 500
RU
Maximum 1100
3850 8500 (3)
Export (4) (4)
1700 600
(14)
in MW
Footnotes : (1) - Denmark West (8) - NTC values should be considered separately, are not cumulative and simultaneous
(2) - Denmark East (9) - Structure of GCB : Amprion, EnBW TNG, TPS, 50Hz Transmission, Creos (LU), TIWAG-Netz (AT), VKW-Netz (AT)
(3) - Maximal cumulated value from DE to NL, FR and CH (10) - Regulated capacities
(4) - Depending on wind situation in Germany (11) - Provided by Austria-France-Italy-Slovenia-Switzerland
(5) - When the evaluation of a transfer limit requires to use a set of assumptions which are too far from (13) - Because of meshed system in the region, PL provides only one interdependent value (for each direction) for the whole polish profile. The value meet requirements of coordinated
usual or foreseeable situations (leading to high inaccuracies), the NTC value has been replaced by auctions in the region.
"no realistic limit". (14) - This refers to the maximal value from/to DE, CZ and SK
(6) - Countries are listed in the matrix from the West to the East of Europe (15) - This refers to the maximal value from/to FR, DE, AT
_ (16) - PL provides only the interdependent value for the whole polish profile. The value is given in the Maximum Export\Import in MW column\row
2.11.2009
W A R N I N G: Legend :
Version 1200
NTC in MW - Value agreed by both countries
These indicative values have been computed by extrapolation from ENTSO-E country
2nd November standard situations, in order to evaluate the transfer capacity through 600 NTC in MW - Different values are estimated between the two countries involved. The lower value is shown on top and the
a single interface for a typical exchange situation (European 800 CZ country providing the higher value is specified,
2009 SEE TSO country
Reference Case Map also available on ENTSO-E Website). Thus these 600 NTC in MW - Value provided by only one country
figures are only indicative and they are not cumulative (they cannot SE The country providing no value is specified.
Other country
be summed up). Maximum export and import values per country also
intend to clarify this. NRL no realistic limit (5)
IE
GB
MA 900
MA
PT 1500
BE 3400 2400
2400 3850 3850 (4)
NL
LU 980
2800 3000 NRL 1500(4) 550 610 3200 2000 1100 DE(4) 2300 (4)
DE (9) (8) PL (16)
NO 950
NO
FI
APPENDIX D. DATA REFERENCE
LV
LT
EE
BY
Maximum
3850 1000
Export 8500 (3) (4) 1900
(4)
(14)
in MW
(1) - Denmark West (7) - This refers to the maximal value from GR to BG, MK and AL
Footnotes : (2) - Denmark East (8) - NTC values should be considered separately, are not cumulative and simultaneous
(3) - Maximal cumulated value from DE to NL, FR and CH (9) - Structure of GCB : Amprion, EnBW TNG, TPS, Vattenfall Europe Transmission, Creos (LU), TIWAG-Netz (AT), VKW-Netz (AT)
(4) - Depending on wind situation in Germany (10) - Regulated capacities
(5) - When the evaluation of a transfer limit requires to use a set of assumptions which are too far from (11) - Provided by Austria-France-Italy-Slovenia-Switzerland
usual or foreseeable situations (leading to high inaccuracies), the NTC value has been replaced by (13) - Because of meshed system in the region, PL provides only one interdependent value (for each direction) for the hole polish profile.
"no realistic limit". The value meet requirements of coordinated auctions in the region.
(6) - Countries are listed in the matrix from the West to the East of Europe (14) - This refers to the maximal value from/to DE, CZ and SK
_ (15) - This refers to the maximal value from/to FR, DE, AT
(16) - PL provides only the interdependent value for the hole polish profile. The value is given in the Maximum Export\Import in MW column\row
Version 1.5
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