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THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT: INDIA

CDISS ^ | August 1996 | Jim Hackett

Posted on 5/8/2004, 8:38:16 PM by VinayFromBangalore

The opinions expressed here are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
views of CDISS or any of its members.

Further information on India's missile programme, including rare images of the Prithvi SRBM
and Agni IRBM, can be found in National Briefings These documents have been contributed by
Jim Hackett of Titan Corp. in San Diego, California. Hackett is an occasional columnist for the
Washington Times, and served in senior arms control and national security positions in the
Nixon and Reagan administrations.

THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT: INDIA & PAKISTAN

One of the most dangerous missile competitions in the world today is the one between India and
Pakistan, because both have nuclear weapons and both have ballistic missiles to deliver them.
The longstanding feud between the two countries almost led to nuclear war in 1990. It has been
estimated that India has enough nuclear material and weapons components to quickly assemble
about 25 nuclear weapons and Pakistan an estimated 15. In March 1995, the CIA was cited as
saying that Pakistan had nine or ten nuclear weapons already assembled.

Indian Developments

Indian missile developments are the most advanced. They have been closely related to the Indian
space program and show what a determined developing country can do with a long-term,
measured approach to the development and production of satellites, missiles, and space-launch
rockets. The first Indian satellite was launched on a Soviet rocket in 1975. Four years later, in
1979, India put a remote-sensing satellite into space, also on a Russian rocket. But by 1980 India
was able to launch a 155 lb Rohini spacecraft into low-Earth orbit on its own SLV-3 space
launch vehicle.

India's second-generation rocket, the Augmented Space Launch Vehicle (ASLV), was
successfully launched in 1992, putting a spacecraft into a 450 km orbit. If the five-stage solid-
fuel ASLV were used as a ballistic missile, it is estimated that it would have a range of 4,000 km.
That is substantially more than India's Agni ballistic missile, which has a range of 2,500 km.

India has produced two ballistic missiles, the short-range Prithvi that comes in 150 km and 250
km models, and the medium-range Agni, a two-stage solid and liquid fueled missile with a range
of 2,500 km. Prithvi has undergone at least a dozen flight tests in a highly successful
development program and is being deployed by the Indian Army against Pakistan.

The Agni program, which began in 1983, has recently enjoyed success. The second flight test in
1992 had a succesful launch but encountered difficulties on reentry. The third flight test in 1994
was a complete success and featured a maneuvering warhead that splashed down on target 1,200
km out in the Bay of Bengal. The Agni can cover all of Pakistan and reach deep into China with
twice the throwweight needed to carry a nuclear weapon, according to Indian sources. Five more
flight tests are planned, to be followed by full scale production.

Indian Intercontinental-Range Missiles

India also is developing a series of space launch vehicles that can easily be converted into true
intercontinental ballistic missiles. India's ASLV space-launch vehicle program led to the more
advanced Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle
(GSLV) programs. The four-stage PSLV is a heavy-lift launch vehicle that puts India in the
company of the U.S., Russia, China, France and Japan, as the nations that can launch heavy
satellites into orbit. The complex PSLV has solid-fuel first and third stages, liquid-fuel second
and fourth stages, and six solid-fuel strap-on boosters. The 66-foot long first stage is one of the
most powerful solid rocket motors in the world.

In 1994 the PSLV successfully launched a one-ton Earth observing satellite into orbit. On March
21, 1996, the PSLV made its second successful launch, placing a 1,770 lb remote-sensing
satellite into a 900 km polar orbit. It is estimated that if the PSLV were used as an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) it would be able to attain a range of at least 8,000 km.

The next advance in the Indian space program will be to flight test the GSLV, which is planned
to be an Ariane-class booster capable of putting a 5,500 lb satellite into geostationary orbit. The
GSLV will use the PSLV first stage, but the six strap-on boosters will be replaced with four more
powerful boosters derived from the PSLV second stage. The GSLV will use a single cryogenic
rocket engine bought from Russia as its upper stage. The British Centre for Defence and
International Security Studies estimates that if the GSLV were used as a ballistic missile it would
be a major ICBM, capable of delivering a nuclear warhead up to 14,000 km. The first flight of
the GSLV is expected to take place in 1997 or 1998.

Nuclear Missiles: a Source of Power

In 1991 General Sundarji, the Indian Army Chief of Staff, said that the "Gulf War emphasized
once again that nuclear weapons are the ultimate coin of power. In the final analysis the U.S.
could go in because it had nuclear weapons and Iraq did not." India clearly sees nuclear weapons
as a source of power and has made a decision to maintain nuclear weapons and to develop
ballistic missiles of various ranges to deliver them.

India now is producing and selling satellite imagery on the world market. In 1992 Professor U.R.
Rao, Chairman of India's Space Research Organization, said that enormous opportunities were
opening for Indian industry to sell satellites, rocket engines and even space launch vehicles for
export. Mr. Rao noted that the Indian version of France's Viking rocket engine compares with the
best but costs much less. India could, therefore, become a major source of ballistic missile
technology and components for countries trying to develop a long-range missile capability.

Pakistan's Missiles

The longstanding feud between India and Pakistan almost led to nuclear war in 1990, when then-
deputy NSC adviser Robert Gates was sent to defuse the situation. Pakistan is believed to have
had a few nuclear weapons at that time, deployed on F-16 fighter-bombers. Pakistan
subsequently bought some 300 km M-11 missiles and launchers from China, making Pakistan,
like India, a member of that exclusive club of countries that have both nuclear weapons and
missiles capable of delivering them. Pakistan also is developing its own family of ballistic
missiles to deliver its nuclear weapons. Known as the Hatf I, II and III, they have estimated
ranges of 80, 250 and 600 km.

Based on French technology, the Hatf I and II are now operational; the longer-range Hatf III,
believed to be based on the 600 km Chinese M-9, is still in development. When operational, it
will enable Pakistan to launch a nuclear weapon at New Delhi. Pakistan has leap-frogged the
slow process of developing its own ballistic missiles by buying a complete system from China,
the M-11. Despite numerous promises not to transfer such technology, the Chinese have done so.
It would not be surprising if Pakistan, anxious to keep up with India, were to make additional
clandestine purchases of missiles or missile technology from China.

China has sold missiles and advanced technologies to Pakistan, while Russia has sold rocket
engines and military equipment to India. It appears that India and Pakistan, and other developing
countries as well, can get almost any technology they are willing to pay for. Also, we must
assume, on the basis of statements by their own officials, that when these countries have
advanced technologies they may well make them available for export. Thus, the nuclear missile
capabilities of India and Pakistan, in addition to creating the danger of nuclear war on the
subcontinent, may also be sources of nuclear and missile technologies for the rogue regimes
most likely to use them.

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; War on Terror

KEYWORDS: india; missile; nuclear; pakistan; southasia; tmd; us; wmd
WASHINGTON: The United States, which tried its darnedest to stymie India's progress towards
achieving cutting edge space capability after giving its space programme an initial boost,
Wednesday acknowledged the country's technical virtuosity evident in the successful launch of
its top-end GSLV.

"It is an indication I guess that India has a great deal of technical prowess," one US official said
on background. "Very few countries in the world have such technical capability."

Amen, Indian scientists might say, and for good reason. The Indian space programme began in
the 1960s in a run down church in Thumba, Kerala, where with the help of American scientists,
Indian space cadets knocked together the first rockets in a cowshed that served as a lab and a
bishop's lair that served as an office.

But after more than two decades of cooperation that even endured India's 1974 nuclear test,
Washington began to put the squeeze on India in the early 1990s, suddenly becoming conscious
that the country"s defence establishment could ride on the many dual-use civilian space
technologies.

The crunch came when the Clinton administration began to lean on Russia to stop the sale and
technology transfer of cryogenic engines that would have helped India made a generational leap
from its PSLV - which helps put modest-sized satellites into a orbit close to earth - to a GSLV.

The GSLV can carry satellites weighing more than a ton and place it in a geosynchronous orbit -
which means it goes round the Earth at the same rate as the planet turns, so the satellite is always
over the same point on the Earth's surface. To do so the satellite needs to reach a very high orbit
of 36,000km from the Earth, which will literally and metaphorically, be the high point of this
launch.

Thanks to US cussedness, the GSLV launch set for 1997 was delayed by four years. Meanwhile,
under a renegotiated contract, Russia sold India seven cryogenic engines without the tech
transfer, forcing Indian scientists to work on designing their own engines, a mission that is still
underway.

Still, Wednesday"s GSLV launch sent a murmur of excitement through the American
commercial and military space establishments.

"This is huge, this is a big deal," Jim Banke, a senior producer for space.com who has covered
launches at Cape Canaveral for 15 years said. "This puts India into the big league. Imagine
someone introducing a new car into the US market. Imagine how GM and Ford will react. This is
going to send shock wave through the aerospace industry."

The initial reading is the successful GSLV launch gives India the capability and the confidence
to eventually enter the commercial satellite launch market that is estimated to be in the range of
$10 to $20 billion annually. Currently only the United States, European Union, Russia, China,
and Japan have the capability. The EU space agency Ariane commands nearly half the market,
followed by the US, Russia, and China.

The US scientific community also appeared pretty sanguine about the potential military
implications of the GSLV success. Although Space.com's Banke said the GSLV clearly signalled
that India had achieved a ICBM capability, John Pike, a security expert formerly with the
Federation of American Scientists and now Director of Global Security.org, said that capability
has already been demonstrated with the PSLV.

"The only difference between India's satellite launch vehicles and a ballistic missile is a coat of
paint," Pike said.
"The only difference between a launch vehicle and a missile is the payload. The payload can be a
satellite. Or it can be a nuclear bomb," agreed Banke.

But the US officialdom, which tried to scuttle the transfer of cryogenic engine technology to
India to cap such capability, maintained a studied official silence on the development.

In fact, against the backdrop of the latest launch, the Indian space and nuclear establishment is
having one of its rare contacts with the US scientific dispensation next week. The top minds of
the Indian scientific and security apparatus including Dr Raja Ramanna and Prof U R Rao will be
here for a dialogue with the United States Centre for International Security and Arms Control.

1 posted on 5/8/2004, 8:38:17 PM by VinayFromBangalore

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To: nuconvert
PING!

2 posted on 5/8/2004, 8:42:40 PM by F14 Pilot (John ''Fedayeen" sKerry - the Mullahs' regime
candidate)
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: VinayFromBangalore
It is an indication I guess that India has a great deal of technical prowess

All you have to do is walk around one of our technical college campuses to see why this is true.
Between the Indians, the Pakistanis and the Chinese, American kids can scarcely get into these
colleges.

One other reason also: The H1B program that Congress keeps going for political payola, lets
them come to the US, learn our technology and get loads of experience to "outsource" back to
Bangalore, while keeping US tech salaries low.

4 posted on 5/8/2004, 10:24:26 PM by The Sons of Liberty

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To: The Sons of Liberty

Umm, yes and no.You mustn't forget that most Indians who come to study in the US are already
graduates when they leave here.They come to your shores for money and specialisation. That's
the result we hope happens,although we didn't do things to lead to these circumstances
intentionally.We got lucky.Reversal of the brain drain, as you may prefer.

5 posted on 5/8/2004, 10:39:26 PM by VinayFromBangalore

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To: VinayFromBangalore
Your article appears to be from 1998. Here's what happened 3 years after that article written:

Wednesday, 28 March, 2001, 11:21 GMT 12:21 UK

Indian GLSV Satellite Launch Fails

India is hoping to match other rockets like Ariane

A rocket launch in India which was to open up a new phase in the country's space programme has failed.

The first test launch of a geostationary satellite launch vehicle was aborted after a fire broke out shortly
after its Russian engines were ignited. The launch has now been postponed indefinitely.

6 posted on 5/8/2004, 10:54:00 PM by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be
punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: VinayFromBangalore
"The only difference between India's satellite launch vehicles and a ballistic missile is a coat of
paint," Pike said.

"The only difference between a launch vehicle and a missile is the payload. The payload can be a
satellite. Or it can be a nuclear bomb," agreed Banke.

I don't know about the where the author got this exchange, but it is not true. There is a whole lot
of change needed to convert a satellite launch vehicle into a ballistic missile. Unless one is
willing to give up a great deal of accuracy. And as far as the paint, that is one thing that does not
have to be changed. (lol)

Not that it could not be done, and India has the technology, but it is not trivial. Likewise,
installing a nuclear bomb and having sufficient safeguards so that it does not go off on the launch
pad is not trivial either.

7 posted on 5/8/2004, 11:07:22 PM by KC_for_Freedom (Sailing the highways of America, and

loving it.)
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: IvyLeagueStudent

Are they still using Russian engines?

9 posted on 5/9/2004, 12:38:35 AM by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be
punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: IvyLeagueStudent
"The fourth GSLV flight in 2005 will be a truly indigenous vehicle, with the cryogenic stage
developed at the LPSC."

That's good to see. By 2005 India will have achieved what the U.S. and Russia had done in
1961.

And when India puts a Man into orbit (and they will), they will reach where the U.S. and Russia
were in 1962.

If they can make it to the Moon, then they'll have passed Russia (and probably China) to make it
to where the U.S. marked 1969.

Not bad.

11 posted on 5/9/2004, 2:10:59 AM by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be
punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack
Well, you can figure that no matter how far behind us the "Third World" lags, they will
eventually catch up to where we were in 1960, and be capable of at least speculatively landing a
nuke on us. It's just a question of when and how long, not if, and even if they aren't able to beg,
buy, or steal the technology, "what one man can invent, another can discover", to quote Sherlock
Holmes.

So the real issue is how do we defend ourselves. The potential for massive retaliation worked
well enough to keep the Russians from trying to obliterate us - but, of course, the Russians
individually and collectively have behaved much more rationally than our contemporary
adversaries Elsewhere. If you think security in the Russian weapons program was bad, imagine
what it must be like in India. Moreover, does anyone think that one of Iran's ayatollahs would
hesitate to launch on us, even at the expense of destroying his country completely, in the name of
the Religion of Peace?

We're just going to have to perfect an antimissile defense... and I do mean *perfect*. At least for
the moment, we are technologically sophisticated enough to be able to maintain a commanding
technological lead in that area. (All bets are off for the future, however, if we continue to devalue
employment in engineering to the point where our engineers are leaving the profession to
become accountants and pharmacists...)

12 posted on 5/9/2004, 3:11:47 AM by fire_eye (Socialism is the opiate of academia.)

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