RestaurantIndustryForecast2014 PDF

2014
Restaurant Industry
Forecast
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©2014 National Restaurant Association. All rights reserved.
The restaurant industry is a
powerhouse in the U.S. economy.
W
ith sales of more than $683 billion, nearly The National Restaurant Association’s research is
one million locations and a workforce of recognized as the industry’s most authoritative
13.5 million, restaurants serve as source for restaurant industry projections and trends,
cornerstones in every community. While a range of based on analysis of the latest economic data and
challenges still exist for restaurant operators across extensive surveys of restaurateurs and consumers.
segments, dining out remains one of America’s We continually monitor the latest data and conduct
favorite pastimes, ensuring that the industry will new research to keep you up-to-date on the trends
continue to grow. that affect the operating environment. For more
We are pleased to provide our annual outlook of information and analysis, visit Restaurant.org/
restaurant industry opportunities and challenges for Research.
the year ahead. The 2014 edition of this report is We look forward to continuing to serve our
divided into sections by topic that you may review industry with research and insights that will help
separately or combine to provide a comprehensive improve business in 2014 and beyond.
overview of the full industry. This format provides a Sincerely,
more flexible way to note the latest trends while
preserving the wide scope of our respected flagship
research report.
The National Restaurant Association provides
Dawn Sweeney Hudson Riehle
comprehensive support on all fronts for the indus-
President and CEO Senior Vice President,
try’s success — from political advocacy to business
National Restaurant Association Research & Knowledge
services to original research — and to help our
members build customer loyalty, rewarding careers
and financial success.
Shared Vision of the National Restaurant Association, National Restaurant Association

Educational Foundation and State Restaurant Associations:
We will lead America’s restaurant industry into a new era of prosperity, prominence and participation,
enhancing the quality of life for all we serve.
NRA MISSION NRAEF MISSION

We exist to help our members — the cornerstone of As the philanthropic foundation of the National
their communities — build customer loyalty, rewarding Restaurant Association, we exist to enhance the
careers and financial success. restaurant industry’s service to the public through
education, community engagement and the
promotion of career opportunities.
National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 1

Introduction
The National Restaurant Association each year prepares a comprehensive
overview of and outlook for the restaurant industry. The NRA’s research is
considered the most authoritative source for restaurant industry sales projections
and trends. It is based on analysis of the latest economic data and extensive
surveys of restaurant operators and consumers. See the inside back cover for
notes on methodology, and visit Restaurant.org/Research for additional industry
trends and analysis.
The 2014 edition of this report is divided into six parts by topic: Sales and
Economic Forecast, Workforce Outlook and Trends, Tableservice Trends, Limited-
Service Trends, Technology Trends, and Food and Menu Trends. These chapters
can be used separately, or combined into a 360-degree view of the U.S. restaurant
industry in 2014.
Restaurant Industry 2014 Restaurant Industry 2014

Restaurant Industry 2014 Restaurant Industry 2014 Restaurant Industry 2014 Restaurant Industry 2014
Sales & Workforce Tableservice Limited-Service Technology Food & Menu
Economic Outlook & Trends Trends Trends Trends
Forecast Trends
This report was prepared

by the National Restaurant
Association Research
and Knowledge Group:
The NRA’s research and analysis have a long-standing reputation of the highest
credibility, neutrality and accuracy both inside and outside the industry. It is consid- Hudson Riehle
Senior Vice President,
ered a leading authority on industry statistics, analysis and trends. Proceeds from Research & Knowledge
research publications are applied to conducting additional industry research.
Bruce Grindy
Chief Economist
Annika Stensson
Senior Manager,
Research Communications
2014 Sales & Economic Forecast................................................................................................................ 3
Workforce Outlook & Trends........................................................................................................................ 17 Tim Smith

Art Director
Tableservice Trends.......................................................................................................................................... 23
Limited-Service Trends................................................................................................................................... 31
Technology Trends........................................................................................................................................... 37
Food & Menu Trends........................................................................................................................................ 43
2055 L Street, NW,

Suite 700
Washington, D.C. 20036
NationalRestaurantAssociation @WeRRestaurants RestaurantDotOrg
(800) 424-5156
Restaurant.org
© 2014 National Restaurant Association. All rights reserved. The National Restaurant Association logo is a trademark of the National
Restaurant Association. ISBN 978-1-931400-86-2
2 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

Restaurant Industry Set
For Sales Growth Despite
Cautious Consumer Mindset
B
olstered by a stronger economy and the fifth consecutive year of real growth in
historically high levels of pent-up demand restaurant sales, the gains remain below what
would be expected during a normal post-recession
$683.4
among consumers, restaurant-industry
sales are expected to hit a record high in 2014. period.
According to the National Restaurant Association’s In the immediate aftermath of the previous
2014 Restaurant Industry Forecast report, restau- four recessions, the restaurant industry registered
BILLION rant-and-foodservice sales are projected to total at least three consecutive years of real sales gains
$683.4 billion in 2014, up 3.6 percent from 2013’s above 2 percent. In the four years that followed the
Projected restaurant sales volume of $659.3 billion. Great Recession, real sales growth topped out at
industry 2014 sales volume In inflation-adjusted terms, sales are projected 1.7 percent. The expectation for 2014 is more of
to increase 1.2 percent in 2014, up from a 1.0 the same.
percent gain in 2013. Although 2014 will represent
44 Years of Restaurant Industry* Sales

The chart shows growth in the number of dollars spent each year in the restaurant industry, as well as real
(inflation-adjusted) sales growth.
12.8%
Current Dollar Growth: 3.6%
2014
12.4%12.3%
11.8%
11.5% Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Growth: 1.2%
11.6%
10.8% 9.9%
9.2% 8.3%
8.4% 8.0% 7.9%
7.7%
7.2%
6.9% 6.1% 6.2%

6.6% 5.8%
5.3% 5.5% 5.3%
5.3%
5.1% 5.8% 5.0%
5.0% 4.7% 4.8%
4.4% 5.3% 4.4%
4.4% 4.2% 4.2%
4.2% 4.7%
4.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%
3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6%
4.2%
3.2% 3.0%
3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
2.8% 3.4% 2.7%
2.5% 3.2%
2.3% 2.2%
2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%
1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7%
1.5% 1.5%
1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
1.0% 1.0%
0.8%
0.5% 0.5%
-0.2% -0.1% -0.2%

-0.6%
-0.9%
-3.0%
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2014
Current dollar growth Real (inflation-adjusted) growth

*The National Restaurant Association defines the restaurant industry as that which encompasses all meals and snacks prepared away from home, including all takeout meals and beverages.
Source: National Restaurant Association

GOOD NEWS:
Consumers are relatively

optimistic that personal
Stuck in a Recession Mindset
One of the primary reasons that restaurant-industry financial conditions
sales growth hasn’t fully taken off during the economic
will improve in the
recovery is that consumers for the most part haven’t
broken out of their recession rut. When asked in year ahead.
December 2013 to rate the current state of their own
personal finances, nearly six of 10 adults described
them as either fair (38 percent) or poor (20 percent).
Less than one of 10 adults said their personal finances
were in excellent condition.
The responses to the same question were almost Consumers’ Assessment of Their Own
identical in December 2010, when the economy had Personal Finances
just begun to add back some of the almost 9 million
December 2010 vs. December 2013
private sector jobs that were lost during the recession.
Flash forward three years and nearly 7 million jobs December 2013
later, and consumers remain stuck in the same
mindset. 20% 38% 33% 8%
Not surprisingly, this negativity is directly impact-

ing consumers’ willingness to spend. Among the adults December 2010
who described their personal finances as either fair or
poor, nearly one-half (46 percent) said they were very 18% 41% 34% 7%
concerned about the economy and had cut back
significantly on spending. Forty-one percent of these
consumers said they had cut back somewhat on Poor Fair Good Excellent
spending until the economy improves, while only 13 Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Surveys, 2010 and 2013
percent had not cut back at all.

Among consumers who said their personal finances
were in either excellent or good condition, only 17
percent said they had cut back significantly on
Consumers’ Description of Their Current
spending, while 39 percent had not cut back at all. Personal Spending Behavior
Adults Who Rate Adults Who Rate
Reasons for Optimism Their Personal Their Personal
Although consumers’ assessment of their personal Finances as Finances at
economy remains mixed, they are relatively optimistic All Adults Excellent or Good Fair or Poor
that conditions will improve in the year ahead. Confident in their financial
Thirty-five percent of adults say they think their situation and have not
household financial situation will be better in 2014 cut back on spending. 24% 39% 13%
than it was in 2013, while only 11 percent expect Taking the wait and see
things will get worse. approach, and have cut back
somewhat on spending until
While an improving financial situation will the economy improves. 42% 44% 41%
enhance consumers’ general ability to spend, survey Very concerned about the
data also suggests that restaurants will likely be the economy and have cut back
beneficiaries of some of this increased spending. The significantly on spending. 34% 17% 46%
NRA asked consumers in December 2013 if they were Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2013
using restaurants as often as they would like.
The answer was a resounding no, with 43 percent
About the
Consumers’ Outlook
54%
reporting they are not eating on the premises of
Same as 2013
restaurants as frequently as they would like. This
indicator of pent-up demand was elevated across all for Their Household
age groups, with at least four of 10 adults in each
Financial Situation
category saying they aren’t dining out as often as they
would like. Women (46 percent) were more likely than
men (38 percent) to say they would like to dine out
in 2014 Better Than
2013
35%
11%
Worse Than
more often. Source: National Restaurant Association, 2013
National Household Survey, 2013

Unfulfilled demand was even somewhat elevated
among individuals from higher-income households.
Twenty-seven percent of individuals in households
with annual incomes of $75,000 to $99,999 and 18
percent of those with annual incomes of $100,000 or
more said they are not eating on premises of restau-
rants as often as they would like. These households are Consumers’ Pent-Up Demand
for Restaurants Remains Elevated
prime restaurant customers, accounting for roughly 57
percent of total restaurant spending in 2012.
Consumers had a similar attitude about their Percent of Adults Who Say Not Eating on
off-premises occasions, with 42 percent saying they are They Are Not Using the Premises at Not Purchasing
not purchasing takeout or delivery as frequently as Restaurants as Often as Restaurants and Take-Out Foods or
they would like. Older adults were more likely than They Would Like Fast Food Places Having It Delivered
their younger counterparts to say they would like to be as Often as They as Often as They
Would Like Would Like
using takeout and delivery options more often.
Among consumers who described their personal All Adults 43% 42%
financial situations as either fair or poor, roughly Men 38% 40%
one-half said they aren’t using restaurants as often as Women 46% 43%
they would like. In addition, six of 10 adults who have
Age
cut back significantly on spending said they would like
18 to 34 Years Old 42% 39%
to be using restaurants more frequently.
35 to 44 Years Old 43% 38%
Even the industry’s regulars are not getting their fill
45 to 54 Years Old 46% 42%
of restaurants. More than one of four frequent
55 to 64 Years Old 40% 43%
restaurant customers — those who average more than
one occasion per week in a particular category — said 65 Years or Older 43% 49%
they aren’t eating on premises or using takeout or Household Income
delivery as often as they would like.
Less than $35,000 58% 56%
Putting these results in a historical context, this
$35,000 to $49,999 40% 36%
measure of pent-up demand remains well above
$50,000 to $74,999 41% 37%
pre-recession levels. On a consistent basis during the
$75,000 to $99,999 27% 23%
stronger restaurant business environment of the
$100,000 or More 18% 17%
mid-2000s, typically only one-quarter of adults said
they were not patronizing restaurants as frequently as Region of the Country
they would like. Northeast 39% 36%
Overall, these survey results suggest that consum- Midwest 40% 40%
ers’ appetite for restaurants remains largely unfulfilled, South 46% 46%
and they will be primed to burn off their accumulated
West 42% 42%
pent-up demand for restaurants when they are more
confident in their personal financial situation. Frequent Customers*
Fullservice Customers 26% 27%
Quickservice Customers 31% 28%
Off-Premises Dinner Customers 33% 27%
Pent-up demand for
restaurants remains Personal Finance Assessment
Excellent or Good 28% 29%
above pre-recession Fair or Poor 52% 50%
levels. Personal Spending Behavior
Have Not Cut Back 25% 23%
Have Cut Back Somewhat 39% 38%
Have Cut Back Significantly 58% 60%
Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2013
*Frequent customers are defined as averaging more than one occasion per week in that particular
category.

Restaurant-Industry Sales
Footnotes:
1 Data are given only
for establishments
with payroll.
2 Waiter/waitress
Restaurant-industry food-and-drink sales: Projections for 2014 service is provided,
and the order is
‘13-’14 % taken while the
patron is seated.
2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % Real Growth Patrons pay after
F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Change they eat.
3 Patrons generally
GROUP I — COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES1 order at a cash
register or select
EATING PLACES items from a food
Tableservice restaurants2 $206,978,965 $212,360,419 2.6% 0.2% bar and pay before
they eat.
Limited-service (quickservice) restaurants3 187,073,590 195,379,658 4.4% 2.1% 4 Formerly commercial
Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets4 8,608,378 8,823,588 2.5% 0.1% cafeterias.
5 Food-and-drink sales
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 29,237,025 30,698,823 5.0% 2.7% for nonpayroll
Social caterers 8,260,001 8,673,002 5.0% 2.6% establishments are
projected to total
TOTAL EATING PLACES $440,157,959 $455,935,490 3.6% 1.2% $13,608,941,000.
Bars and taverns 19,401,396 19,964,037 2.9% 0.4% 6 Also referred to as

onsite foodservice
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $459,559,355 $475,899,527
5
3.6% 1.2% and food contractors.
MANAGED SERVICES6 7 Includes health-and-
personal-care-
Manufacturing and industrial plants $7,635,276 $7,975,046 4.5% 2.1% store restaurants,
general-merchandise-
Commercial and office buildings 2,828,296 2,916,257 3.1% 0.7% store restaurants,
Hospitals and nursing homes 5,691,290 6,000,946 5.4% 2.9% variety-store
restaurants,
Colleges and universities 14,825,692 15,196,335 2.5% -0.5% food-store restaurants
and grocery-store
Primary and secondary schools 6,348,520 6,589,764 3.8% 0.9% restaurants (including
a portion of delis and
In-transit restaurant services (airlines) 2,203,983 2,197,371 -0.3% -2.7% all salad bars),
Recreation and sports centers 6,028,580 6,221,495 3.2% 0.8% gasoline/service-
station restaurants
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES $45,561,637 $47,097,214 3.4% 0.7% and miscellaneous
retailers.
LODGING PLACES
8 Includes movies,
Hotel restaurants $32,637,798 $34,439,405 5.5% 3.1% bowling lanes,
recreation and sport
Other accommodation restaurants 395,470 405,792 2.6% 0.2% centers.
TOTAL LODGING PLACES $33,033,268 $34,845,197 5.5% 3.1% 9 Includes sales of hot
food, sandwiches,
Retail-host restaurants7 36,452,446 38,310,021 5.1% 2.7% pastries, coffee and
other hot beverages.
Recreation and sports8 14,175,794 14,528,096 2.5% 0.1%
10 Business, educa-
Mobile caterers 688,288 717,861 4.3% 1.9% tional, governmental
Vending and nonstore retailers9 12,437,893 12,862,757 3.4% 0.9% or institutional
organizations that
TOTAL — GROUP I $601,908,681 $624,260,673 3.7% 1.3% operate their own
restaurant services.
GROUP II — NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES10 11 Includes industrial
and commercial
Employee restaurant services11 $426,579 $435,168 2.0% -0.2% organizations,
Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools 6,920,073 7,136,596 3.1% 0.2% seagoing and inland-
waterway vessels.
Colleges and universities 7,573,881 7,718,429 1.9% -1.1% 12 Includes voluntary
Transportation 2,256,605 2,317,277 2.7% 0.2% and proprietary
hospitals; long-term
Hospitals12 16,512,795 17,041,205 3.2% 0.6% general, TB, nervous
and mental hospitals;
Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans and sales or
and the mentally and physically disabled13 8,272,376 8,495,731 2.7% 0.5% commercial
equivalent to employ-
Clubs, sporting and recreational camps 9,884,153 10,259,813 3.8% 1.4% ees in state and local
short-term hospitals
Community centers 3,077,899 3,164,081 2.8% 0.5% and federal hospitals.
TOTAL — GROUP II $54,924,361 $56,568,300 3.0% 0.4% 13 Sales (commercial
equivalent)
TOTAL — GROUPS I AND II $656,833,042 $680,828,973 3.7% 1.2% calculated for
nursing homes and
GROUP III — MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES14 homes for the aged
only. All others in this
Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) $1,686,296 $1,720,022 2.0% -0.4% grouping make no
Military exchanges 789,553 811,661 2.8% 0.4% charge for food
served either in cash
TOTAL — GROUP III $2,475,849 $2,531,683 2.3% -0.1% or in kind.
14 Continental United
GRAND TOTAL $659,308,891 $683,360,656 3.6% 1.2% States only.

Restaurant Industry Sales
(In Billions of Current Dollars)
14.8 2014* $683.4
13.5 million
11.9 million 2010 $586.7
million
2000 $379.0
2004 2014* 2024 *
1990 $239.3
1980 $119.6
Restaurant Industry Employment
1970 $42.8
*projected *projected
Adding It All Up: $683.4 billion Restaurant Industry’s

Projected restaurant industry sales in 2014 Share of the Food Dollar
Commercial Restaurant Services $624.3 billion 1955
Eating Places*: $455.9 billion

Bars and Taverns: $20.0 billion
25%
Managed Services: $47.1 billion
Lodging Places: $34.8 billion

Present
Retail, Vending, Recreation, Mobile: $66.4 billion
Noncommercial Restaurant Services $56.6 billion
*Eating places include tableservice restaurants

47%
and quickservice restaurants, cafeterias and
buffets, social caterers, and snack and Military Restaurant Services $2.5 billion
nonalcoholic beverage bars.
Restaurant-Industry Sales over Five Years 2010-2014

2010 2011 ‘10-’11 2012 ‘11-’12 2013 ‘12-’13 2014* ‘13-’14
Sales ($000) Sales ($000) Change Sales ($000) Change Sales ($000) Change Sales ($000) Change
COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES $535,049,233 $557,571,805 4.2% $582,812,277 4.5% $601,908,681 3.3% $624,260,673 3.7%
Eating Places 393,086,667 408,839,139 4.0% 426,780,905 4.4% 440,157,959 3.1% 455,935,490 3.6%
Tableservice restaurants 189,459,020 196,165,870 3.5% 202,325,479 3.1% 206,978,965 2.3% 212,360,419 2.6%
Limited-service restaurants 163,041,239 170,215,054 4.4% 180,155,614 5.8% 187,073,590 3.8% 195,379,658 4.4%
Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets 8,009,430 8,233,695 2.8% 8,423,070 2.3% 8,608,378 2.2% 8,823,588 2.5%
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 25,495,295 26,703,772 4.7% 27,972,435 4.8% 29,237,025 4.5% 30,698,823 5.0%
Social caterers 7,081,683 7,520,748 6.2% 7,904,307 5.1% 8,260,001 4.5% 8,673,002 5.0%
Bars and taverns 17,755,493 18,323,669 3.2% 18,946,674 3.4% 19,401,396 2.4% 19,964,037 2.9%
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $410,842,160 $427,162,808 4.0% $445,727,579 4.3% $459,559,355 3.1% $475,899,527 3.6%
NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES $49,460,016 $51,632,579 4.4% $53,387,827 3.4% $54,924,361 2.9% $56,568,300 3.0%
MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES $2,240,169 $2,342,502 4.6% $2,420,407 3.3% $2,475,849 2.3% $2,531,683 2.3%
TOTAL INDUSTRY SALES $586,749,418 $611,546,886 4.2% $638,620,511 4.4% $659,308,891 3.2% $683,360,656 3.6%
Source: National Restaurant Association *Projected

State
Snapshots
2014 State and

Regional Outlook
2014 Restaurant
Sales Growth
1 Arizona 4.9%
2 North Dakota 4.8%
3 Texas 4.7%
4 Florida 4.5%
5 Colorado 4.1%
6 California 3.9%
7 Oregon 3.8%
8 Utah 3.8%
9 Nevada 3.7%
10 Georgia 3.7%
11 North Carolina 3.7%
12 Idaho 3.7%
R
estaurant sales on the state and slightly above a projected 4.1 percent
local levels are often closely tied gain in the Mountain region. Sales
to economic and demographic gains in these regions are driven largely
trends. Just as the strength of the by employment, income and popula- 2014 Restaurant
economic recovery varied significantly tion growth that is projected to be well
by state, so too has the general business above the national average in 2014.
Sales Volume ($000)
environment for restaurants. The South Atlantic (3.8 percent) 1 California $69,711,721
While trends generally were moving and Pacific (3.7 percent) regions are 2 Texas $42,557,184
in a positive direction by the end of also expected to register sales growth 3 Florida $34,695,955
2013, it is clear that not all recoveries above the projected 2014 national 4 New York $34,635,161
are created equal. Although every state growth rate of 3.6 percent. 5 Illinois $22,362,318
has added jobs since national employ- On the state level, Arizona is 6 Pennsylvania $18,279,004
ment bottomed out in February 2010, expected to set the pace with restaurant 7 Ohio $17,832,986
only 17 states and the District of sales growth of 4.9 percent in 2014, 8 Georgia $16,511,007
Columbia have more jobs than they did followed closely by North Dakota (4.8 9 North Carolina $15,942,303
before the recession started (both as of percent) and Texas (4.7 percent). 10 New Jersey $14,585,470
November 2013). Florida (4.5 percent) and Colorado (4.1 11 Virginia $14,334,835
Moreover, the range of state-level percent) represent the only other states 12 Michigan $13,471,777
unemployment rates remains large with projected sales growth above 4
— from a low of 2.6 percent in North percent in 2014.
Dakota to a high of 9 percent in The top five states in terms of
Nevada and Rhode Island in November restaurant sales gains will also be the
2013. Jobless rates should continue to leaders in 2014 overall job growth, 2014 Projected Growth in
trend downward in 2014, as the NRA according to NRA projections. In Total Employment
expects every state to post employment addition, these states are expected to 1 North Dakota 3.4%
gains of at least 1 percent. post population growth above the
2 Arizona 2.8%
Job growth will continue to be a key national average in 2014.
3 Texas 2.7%
driver of restaurant sales growth in California will continue to lead the
4 Colorado 2.6%
2014 because it not only provides the nation with total restaurant sales
5 Florida 2.4%
disposable income necessary to volume of nearly $70 billion in 2014,
6 Utah 2.2%
support spending, but also generates with Texas following well behind at
7 Georgia 2.2%
the need for convenience that the $42.6 billion. The restaurant industries
8 South Carolina 2.1%
restaurant industry provides. in Florida and New York are expected
9 North Carolina 2.1%
In 2014, the West South Central to register sales of nearly $35 billion in
10 Idaho 2.0%
region is expected to lead the way with 2014.
11 Oregon 1.9%
restaurant sales growth of 4.3 percent,
12 Minnesota 1.9%

State Economic Indicators
Projected Percent Change, 2013-2014
Total Real Disposable Total RESTAURANT SALES ($000)

Employment Personal Income Population 2013 2014 % Change
Connecticut 1.4% 2.7% 0.1% $6,045,395 $6,220,712 2.9%
Maine 1.0% 2.3% 0.2% 1,994,195 2,044,049 2.5%
Massachusetts 1.3% 2.8% 0.4% 13,102,149 13,450,666 2.7%
New Hampshire 1.2% 2.7% 0.5% 2,337,267 2,405,047 2.9%
Rhode Island 1.1% 2.6% 0.2% 1,935,530 1,980,821 2.3%
Vermont 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 855,378 874,710 2.3%
New England 1.3% 2.7% 0.3% $26,269,914 $26,976,005 2.7%
New Jersey 1.5% 3.0% 0.3% $14,140,058 $14,585,470 3.2%
New York 1.2% 3.1% 0.2% 33,447,765 34,635,161 3.6%
Pennsylvania 1.2% 3.0% 0.1% 17,770,760 18,279,004 2.9%
Middle Atlantic 1.3% 3.1% 0.2% $65,358,583 $67,499,635 3.3%
Delaware 1.8% 2.8% 1.0% $1,631,343 $1,689,582 3.6%
District of Columbia 1.1% 2.4% 1.6% 2,673,262 2,753,460 3.0%
Florida 2.4% 3.8% 1.8% 33,216,174 34,695,955 4.5%
Georgia 2.2% 3.5% 1.7% 15,928,041 16,511,007 3.7%
Maryland 1.8% 2.9% 0.4% 10,247,746 10,581,823 3.3%
North Carolina 2.1% 3.5% 1.7% 15,379,417 15,942,303 3.7%
South Carolina 2.1% 3.4% 1.1% 7,481,435 7,747,774 3.6%
Virginia 1.8% 3.0% 0.9% 13,863,477 14,334,835 3.4%
West Virginia 1.5% 2.7% 0.1% 2,149,836 2,207,881 2.7%
South Atlantic 2.1% 3.4% 1.4% $102,570,731 $106,464,620 3.8%
Illinois 1.2% 2.5% 0.3% $21,635,370 $22,362,318 3.4%
Indiana 1.6% 2.7% 0.5% 9,196,437 9,468,652 3.0%
Michigan 1.6% 2.8% 0.1% 13,071,780 13,471,777 3.1%
Ohio 1.4% 2.5% 0.1% 17,354,015 17,832,986 2.8%
Wisconsin 1.4% 2.5% 0.3% 7,309,617 7,525,982 3.0%
East North Central 1.4% 2.6% 0.2% $68,567,219 $70,661,715 3.1%
Alabama 1.6% 2.8% 0.8% $6,380,060 $6,607,190 3.6%
Kentucky 1.6% 2.8% 0.5% 6,228,475 6,437,752 3.4%
Mississippi 1.7% 2.7% 0.4% 3,408,791 3,507,646 2.9%
Tennessee 1.4% 2.7% 0.9% 9,822,481 10,132,871 3.2%
East South Central 1.5% 2.7% 0.7% $25,839,807 $26,685,459 3.3%
Iowa 1.4% 2.6% 0.2% $3,453,972 $3,542,394 2.6%
Kansas 1.4% 2.7% 0.7% 3,821,910 3,938,861 3.1%
Minnesota 1.9% 2.9% 0.6% 8,224,744 8,468,196 3.0%
Missouri 1.3% 2.6% 0.5% 9,108,857 9,369,370 2.9%
Nebraska 1.5% 2.8% 0.4% 2,439,886 2,514,547 3.1%
North Dakota 3.4% 6.7% 1.5% 846,038 886,309 4.8%
South Dakota 1.8% 3.1% 0.9% 1,065,506 1,101,734 3.4%
West North Central 1.6% 2.9% 0.5% $28,960,913 $29,821,411 3.0%
Arkansas 1.5% 2.7% 0.5% $3,477,815 $3,587,714 3.2%
Louisiana 1.7% 2.8% 0.4% 6,784,684 7,028,933 3.6%
Oklahoma 1.7% 3.0% 0.5% 5,115,866 5,287,759 3.4%
Texas 2.7% 3.5% 1.7% 40,662,320 42,557,184 4.7%
West South Central 2.4% 3.3% 1.3% $56,040,685 $58,461,590 4.3%
Arizona 2.8% 4.6% 2.2% $10,465,758 $10,974,393 4.9%
Colorado 2.6% 3.4% 1.2% 9,432,484 9,815,443 4.1%
Idaho 2.0% 3.2% 1.1% 1,929,165 1,999,772 3.7%
Montana 1.8% 3.9% 1.0% 1,459,361 1,509,855 3.5%
Nevada 1.8% 3.2% 2.1% 5,743,825 5,954,049 3.7%
New Mexico 1.3% 2.4% 0.7% 3,118,463 3,229,480 3.6%
Utah 2.2% 3.5% 1.6% 3,492,910 3,624,243 3.8%
Wyoming 1.7% 3.5% 1.0% 846,101 874,530 3.4%
Mountain 2.3% 3.6% 1.6% $36,488,067 $37,981,765 4.1%
Alaska 1.3% 2.6% 1.0% $1,307,494 $1,351,948 3.4%
California 1.8% 3.0% 0.9% 67,127,319 69,711,721 3.9%
Hawaii 1.6% 2.7% 0.9% 3,703,128 3,831,256 3.5%
Oregon 1.9% 3.2% 1.2% 6,467,862 6,711,054 3.8%
Washington 1.8% 3.1% 1.0% 10,848,158 11,201,327 3.3%
Pacific 1.8% 3.0% 1.0% $89,453,961 $92,807,306 3.7%
Source: National Restaurant Association Note: Sales figures are in current dollars, and are not adjusted for menu price inflation.

2014 Economic Outlook
A
lthough the distance from the official end of the Great Recession entered its fifth Judging the Present
year during 2013, the economy continued to face many of the same starts and stops by the Past
that have defined the recovery to this point. However, the economy still added over To be sure, the current recovery continues to lag
2 million jobs for the second consecutive year, and growth became much more broad-based well behind, relative to the previous four
across sectors. recessions. Seventeen quarters after the official
Despite the improvement in the job market, the underlying strength of the economy has trough of the recession, real gross domestic
yet to trickle down into the mindset of consumers. NRA research conducted in December product (GDP) grew only 10 percent. Contrast
2013 shows that only about one of 10 adults gave the national economy a rating of either that with 14 percent gains at the same point
“excellent” (1 percent) or “good” (12 percent). Thirty-seven percent of consumers described during the previous two recoveries and more than
the economy as “fair,” while one-half gave it a “poor” rating. 21 percent growth at similar stages after the
This sentiment was essentially unchanged from consumers’ economic assessment a year recessions in the 1970s and 1980s, and it’s clear
earlier, despite the addition of more than 2 million jobs and a dip in the unemployment rate that the economy is not yet operating at full
of more than a full percentage point. It’s clear that from the perspective of many consumers, strength.
the economy continued to trend sideways in 2013. Similarly, post-recession job growth has
remained generally lackluster, with total U.S.
employment rising 3.9 percent since the official
end of the recession. This growth lagged well
Consumers Remain Unimpressed by the Economy behind the previous four recoveries with the
Consumers’ assessment of the national economy: 2010 – 2013 exception of the early-2000s recession, when
2013 employment was up just 3.4 percent after 17
50% 37% 12% 1% quarters of growth.
However, a critical difference between the last
2012 two recessions was the depth of the downturns.
53% 36% 10% 1%
During the recession of the early-2000s, the
2011 economy lost 2.7 million jobs, or 2.0 percent of its
65% 27% 7% 1% employment base. By this point in the recovery,
employment stood 3.3 million jobs above the
2010
pre-recession peak.
58% 34% 8%
In contrast, the recent recession was signifi-
cantly more severe, with the economy losing
Poor Fair Good Excellent
nearly 9 million jobs, or 6.3 percent of its total
Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Surveys, 2010–2013

employment base. By the end of 2013, employ- Economy Continues to Lag Behind Past Recoveries
ment still remained nearly 1 million jobs below
Percent change: 17 quarters after official recession troughs
the pre-recession peak. So despite the somewhat
21.7%
stronger job growth than the recovery period 21.3%
after the early-2000s recession, the economy is

still in worse shape overall. 16.7%
14.2% 14.5%
Potential to Break Free in 10.7% 10.3%

2014
7.7%
Given the depth of the hole that the Great
Recession dug, it’s not surprising that the 3.4% 3.9%
economy has taken so long to climb out.

Challenges certainly remain – particularly the
1975: Q1 1982: Q2 1991: Q1 2001: Q4 2009: Q2
potential for more budget battles in Washing-
OFFICIAL RECESSION TROUGHS
ton, which serve to undermine the confidence
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Total U.S. Employment
of both consumers and businesses. But overall,
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Association
the positive factors outweigh the risks in 2014,
and the economy will likely find itself traveling
on the smoothest road that it has since before of the recession. The NRA expects total U.S. personal income to increase at a 2.8 percent
the recession. employment to rise 1.8 percent in 2014, up rate in 2014, up from a modest 0.8 percent gain
Job growth always has been a key driver of from a 1.7 percent gain in 2013 and the in 2013 and the strongest increase since 2006.
restaurant sales, and this will be the case in 2014 strongest increase since 2006. As an industry in which a large proportion of
more than any time in recent memory. Consum- Moreover, the economy is projected to post growth is driven by cash on hand, steady gains
ers want to increase their frequency in restau- monthly job gains averaging more than 200,000 in disposable personal income are essential to
rants, as illustrated by their elevated levels of over an entire year for the first time since 2005. boosting restaurant patronage.
pent-up demand. The key factor holding them Seeing a more consistent stream of positive num- Overall, the economy will likely enjoy its
back is a lack of confidence in their financial bers reported on the evening news will help best year of growth in nearly a decade. The
situations, and an increase in the availability and bolster consumers’ confidence in the economy. NRA expects real Gross Domestic Product
security of jobs will help allay these concerns. Income growth is also projected to (GDP) to grow at a 3.0 percent rate in 2014, up
Fortunately, 2014 is projected to be the accelerate along with the employment gains in from a 1.9 percent increase in 2013 and the
economy’s best job-creating year since the end 2014. The NRA expects real disposable strongest gain since 2005.
Job GROWTH Income GROWTH Economic GROWTH

Economy Expected to Add Jobs Personal Income Gains Economy Projected to Grow at
at Strongest Rate Since 2006 Will Accelerate Its Strongest Pace Since 2005
Total U.S. employment growth Real disposable personal income growth Real Gross Domestic Product growth
4.0%
3.4%
2.8% 3.0%
2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8%
2.1% 2.0% 1.9%
1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8%
1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8%
-0.5% -0.3%
-0.6% -0.7%
-2.8%
-4.3%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National
Association *Projected Restaurant Association *Projected Restaurant Association *Projected

Travel and Tourism Will Make
a Positive Contribution in 2014
International tourism to the United States hit a record high in 2013, according to the Office
of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI) within the U.S. Department of Commerce. An
estimated 69 million international visitors came to the United States in 2013, up from 66.7
million in 2012. Approximately 37.5 million of these visitors came from Canada and Mexico,
while an estimated 31.5 million international travelers came from overseas.
Food Prices Expected
Growth in international tourism is expected to continue in the years ahead. OTTI
to be Mixed in 2014
expects 71.8 million international visitors to come to the U.S. in 2014, which would
Elevated food prices continued to pressure represent another record high. Looking further down the road, OTTI expects 4 percent
restaurant operators’ bottom lines in 2013. annual growth in international visitors during the next several years, which would result
Average wholesale food prices rose 2.3 percent in more than 83 million international visitors to the U.S. by 2018.
in 2013, which marked the fourth consecutive In addition to passenger fares, international travelers to the U.S. are expected to spend
annual gain for a total of nearly 20 percent. well over $100 billion on tourism-related goods and services in 2014, including spending
Looking ahead to 2014, restaurant operators in restaurants.
can expect to get pricing relief on some major With visitors representing a growing source of potential customers, many restaurant
commodities. The U.S. Department of operators are focusing more of their marketing efforts toward travelers and tourists. A
Agriculture (USDA) expects declines in majority of both tableservice and limited-service operators — including 96 percent of fine-
primary market prices for pork and broilers in dining operators — are planning to do some marketing toward travelers and tourists in 2014.
2014, after both commodities posted sharp Fine dining operators are the most likely to say they plan to ramp up efforts in this area
gains in 2013. in 2014. Thirty-nine percent of fine-dining operators say they plan to devote more
In contrast, USDA expects primary market resources to marketing toward travelers and tourists in 2014, while only 6 percent plan to
prices for beef to post moderate gains in 2014, cut back in this area.
which will build on the already elevated price
levels.
USDA projects mixed trends in dairy prices Another Record Influx of International Visitors
in 2014, while egg prices are expected to fall
sharply.
Expected in 2014
International arrivals to the United States in millions
71.8
2014 Commodity Price

69.0
66.7
62.7
60.0
Outlook 56.0
58.0
55.1
51.0
Projected high/low growth rates for 46.9 46.1
49.2
primary market prices 43.6

41.2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
2012 2013 2014
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries *Projected
Beef 7% 2% 2% to 9%
Pork -8% 6% -2% to -8%
Broilers 10% 15% -1% to -8%
Restaurant Operators’ Plans for Marketing Toward
Turkeys 4% -6% -2% to 5% Travelers and Tourists in 2014
Eggs 2% 5% -7% to -13% Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast
Milk -8% 8% -1% to 3% Dining Dining Dining service Casual
Cheddar -6% 3% 0% to -4% More resources in 2014 25% 32% 39% 10% 11%
Butter -18% -3% -3% to 4% Fewer resources in 2014 2% 4% 6% 7% 7%
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, December 2013
About the same amount of
projections resources in 2014 54% 44% 51% 55% 44%
Don’t plan to devote resources to
marketing toward travelers and
tourists in 2014 18% 20% 4% 27% 38%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013

m
Household Income Remains Flat
Gas and Diesel
Prices Expected H ousehold income remained stagnant in 2012, according to the latest figures from the U.S.
Census Bureau. Real median household income was $51,017 in 2012, essentially
to Moderate unchanged from 2011 and down 8.3 percent from its recent cyclical high in 2007. In addition,
real median household income stood at its lowest level since 1995, a trend that is concerning
Energy prices are important indicators for
for the economy.
the restaurant industry because they impact
But looking inside the numbers, there are some positive signs for the restaurant industry, as
both consumer demand and the operational
the number of higher-income households rose for the first time in five years. The number of
side of the business. In 2014, gas and diesel
households with annual income above $75,000 numbered 41.3 million in 2012 — up 3.0
prices are projected to come down somewhat
percent from a total of 40.1 million in 2011. This marked the first gain since 2007 and the
from recent highs, according to the U.S.
largest increase in higher-income households since 1999.
Energy Information Administration (EIA).
While the growth is a move in the right direction, the number of higher-income households
On the consumer side, EIA expects gas
still remained 1.1 million below the record high reached in 2007, when there were 42.4 million
prices to average $3.46 in 2014. The forecast is
households with income above $75,000.
down slightly from an average of $3.51 in 2013
The potential implications for the restaurant industry are significant, as higher-income
and below the record high of $3.63 in 2012.
households represent the majority of spending in the industry. According to data from the
However, prices will still remain well above the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, households with incomes of $100,000 or higher are responsible for
recent averages of $2.35 in 2009 and $2.78 in
38 percent of the total spending on food away from home, while households with incomes
2010. The elevated levels of gas prices will
between $70,000 and $99,999 account for 19 percent of industry spending.
continue to put pressure on households,
Drilling down to the state level, only a handful of jurisdictions enjoyed gains in household
particularly if income growth remains sluggish.
income during the last five years. Only the District of Columbia and five states — North
On the operational side, EIA is projecting
Dakota, Wyoming, Vermont, Texas and Oklahoma — saw their median household incomes
increases in both electricity and natural gas
rise between 2007 and 2012. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 2012 median household
prices for the commercial sector in 2014.
incomes in Nevada and Hawaii were more than 20 percent below their 2007 levels.
Electricity prices are projected to average
10.40 cents per kilowatt hour in 2014, a 1.3
percent increase from their 2013 level.
Natural gas prices are expected to average Number of Higher-Income Households Declined Between
$9.38 per thousand cubic feet in 2014, up 2007 and 2012
12.5 percent from 2013. Number of U.S. households by income bracket (in millions) adjusted for
Diesel prices also impact the cost side of inflation in 2012 dollars
the business, as they generally influence the
1990 1990-2007 2007 2007-2012 2012
cost of supplies. EIA expects on-highway
diesel fuel to average $3.81 a gallon in 2014, Less Than $25,000 22.6 15% 26.0 16% 30.2
down from the previous two years when $25,000 to $49,999 24.0 17% 27.9 7% 29.8
prices averaged above $3.90 a gallon. $50,000 to $74,999 19.0 8% 20.4 5% 21.4
$75,000 to $99,999 12.3 19% 14.6 -2% 14.3
Gas and Diesel Prices Are $100,000 or More 16.6 67% 27.8 -3% 26.9
Expected to Decline in 2014
Source: National Restaurant Association analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
Historical and projected prices for
regular gasoline and diesel fuel
$3.97 Higher-Income
$3.92
Households are
2012
$3.81 Prime Restaurant
$3.63
2013 Customers
2014 Share of total restaurant
spending by household income
$3.51 levels
$3.46
Regular Gasoline Diesel Fuel

$100K $70K $50K $30K Less
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, or to to to Than
More $99K $69K $49K $30K
January 2014 projections Source: National Restaurant Association
analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data 38% 19% 14% 14% 15%

APPENDIX A
Major Markets: Projected Sales, 2014

The charts on pages 14 and 15 provide more detail on the National Restaurant Association’s projections for sales in the
markets outside the eating-and-drinking places category in 2014.
EDUCATIONAL SALES
Food-and-drink sales by foodservice companies that manage restaurant services in colleges, universities, primary and secondary schools, as well as
food-and-drink sales by schools that operate their own restaurant services.
$36.6 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change
Billion Colleges and universities
2014 projected Managed services $14,825,692 $15,196,335 2.5% -0.5%
Noncommercial 7,573,881 7,718,429 1.9% -1.1%
food-and-drink
Subtotal 22,399,573 22,914,764 2.3% -0.7%
sales Primary and secondary schools
Managed services 6,348,520 6,589,764 3.8% 0.9%
Noncommercial 6,920,073 7,136,596 3.1% 0.2%
Subtotal 13,268,593 13,726,360 3.5% 0.6%
TOTAL EDUCATIONAL $35,668,166 $36,641,124 2.7% -0.2%
EMPLOYEE SALES
Food-and-drink sales by for-profit companies that manage restaurant services for employees at manufacturing and industrial plants and in commercial
office buildings, as well as food-and-drink sales by plants and companies that run their own noncommercial employee restaurant services.

Billion Managed services
2014 projected Manufacturing and industrial plants $7,635,276 $7,975,046 4.5% 2.1%
Commercial and office buildings 2,828,296 2,916,257 3.1% 0.7%
food-and-drink
Noncommercial employee restaurant services* 426,579 435,168 2.0% -0.2%
sales
TOTAL EMPLOYEE $10,890,151 $11,326,471 4.0% 1.6%
*Includes sales for industrial plants and office buildings, seagoing ships, and inland waterway vessels.
HEALTH-CARE SALES
Food-and-drink sales by foodservice companies that manage restaurant services in hospitals and nursing homes, as well as food-and-drink sales by
hospitals and nursing homes that operate their own restaurant services.

Billion Managed services in hospitals and nursing homes $5,691,290 $6,000,946 5.4% 2.9%
2014 projected Hospitals* 16,512,795 17,041,205 3.2% 0.6%
Nursing homes** 8,272,376 8,495,731 2.7% 0.5%
food-and-drink
sales TOTAL HEALTH CARE $30,476,461 $31,537,882 3.5% 1.0%
*Includes voluntary and proprietary hospitals; long-term general, TB, mental hospitals; and sales or commercial equivalent to employees in state
and local short-term hospitals and federal hospitals.
**Includes homes for the aged, blind, orphans, mentally and physically disabled; sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes and
homes for the aged only. All others in this group make no charge — either in cash or in kind for food served.
Lodging-Place SALES
Food-and-drink sales at hotel restaurants and other accommodation restaurants.

Billion Hotel restaurants $32,637,798 $34,439,405 5.5% 3.1%
2014 projected Other accommodation restaurants 395,470 405,792 2.6% 0.2%
food-and-drink TOTAL LODGING PLACES $33,033,268 $34,845,197 5.5% 3.1%
sales

APPENDIX A
Major Markets Continued

MILITARY SALES
Food-and-drink sales at military clubs and exchanges.

Billion Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) $1,686,296 $1,720,022 2.0% -0.4%
2014 projected Military exchanges 789,553 811,661 2.8% 0.4%
food-and-drink TOTAL MILITARY* $2,475,849 $2,531,683 2.3% -0.1%
sales *Continental United States only.
RECREATIONAL SALES
Food-and-drink sales at recreation and sports centers, such as movie theaters, sports arenas and bowling lanes.

Billion Recreation and sports centers
2014 projected Managed services $6,028,580 $6,221,495 3.2% 0.8%
Noncontractors* 14,175,794 14,528,096 2.5% 0.1%
food-and-drink
Subtotal 20,204,374 20,749,591 2.7% 0.3%
sales Clubs, sporting and recreational camps** 9,884,153 10,259,813 3.8% 1.4%
TOTAL RECREATIONAL $30,088,527 $31,009,404 3.1% 0.6%
*Includes sales at movies, bowling lanes, and recreation and sports centers.
**A portion of food-and-beverage sales in clubs is business-related.
Transportation SALES
Food-and-drink sales on airlines, passenger/cargo liners and railroads.

Billion Managed services, in-transit commercial
2014 projected airlines $2,203,983 $2,197,371 -0.3% -2.7%
Noncommercial transportation 2,256,605 2,317,277 2.7% 0.2%
food-and-drink
sales TOTAL TRANSPORTATION $4,460,588 $4,514,648 1.2% -1.2%
Other SALES

Billion Retail hosts* $36,452,446 $38,310,021 5.1% 2.7%
2014 projected Mobile caterers 688,288 717,861 4.3% 1.9%
Vending and non-store retailers** 12,437,893 12,862,757 3.4% 0.9%
food-and-drink
Community centers 3,077,899 3,164,081 2.8% 0.5%
sales
*Includes drug- and proprietary-store, general-merchandise-store, variety-store, food-store and grocery-store restaurants (including a portion of
delis and all salad bars); gasoline/service-station restaurants; and miscellaneous retailers.
**Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, pastries, coffee and other hot beverages.

APPENDIX B
Purchasing: 2014 Projections

$241.9
Restaurant-industry food-and-drink purchases: 20141
Projected Food-and-Drink Purchases ($000)
BILLION GROUP I — COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES2

EATING PLACES
Fullservice restaurants $65,731,555
Projected restaurant Limited-service (quickservice) restaurants 59,177,042
industry 2014 food-and- Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets 3,130,272
drink purchases Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 9,148,108
Social caterers 2,266,907
TOTAL EATING PLACES $139,453,884
Bars and taverns3 6,677,616
TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $146,131,500
MANAGED SERVICES
Manufacturing and industrial plants $3,182,043
Commercial and office buildings 1,210,247
Hospitals and nursing homes 2,166,342
Colleges and universities 5,029,987
Primary and secondary schools 2,405,264
In-transit restaurant services (airlines)3 983,913
Recreation and sports centers 1,738,488
TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES $16,716,284
LODGING PLACES
Hotel restaurants $10,003,146
Other accommodation restaurants 138,433
TOTAL LODGING PLACES $10,141,579
Retail-host restaurants 11,497,552
Recreation and sports 4,089,944
Mobile caterers 210,240
Vending and nonstore retailers 3,640,160
TOTAL — GROUP I $192,427,259
GROUP II — NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES
Employee restaurant services $248,649
Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools 6,158,882
Colleges and universities 5,029,987
Transportation 1,292,233
Hospitals 7,276,677
Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans and
the mentally and physically disabled 5,292,841
Clubs, sporting and recreational camps 3,955,028
Community centers 2,730,602
Penal institutions 4,169,437
Convents and seminaries 58,164
TOTAL — GROUP II $36,212,500
TOTAL — GROUPS I AND II $228,639,759
Food furnished foodservice employees (FSE) in Groups I and II 9,754,424
TOTAL — GROUPS I, II AND FSE $238,394,183
GROUP III — MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES
Defense Personnel $2,708,825
Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) 598,568
Military exchanges 286,516
TOTAL — GROUP III $3,593,909
GRAND TOTAL $241,988,092
1 Purchases refers to expenditures by foodservice establishments for their food-and-drink supplies. 2 Data are given
only for establishments with payroll. 3 Food purchases only.

Restaurant Job Growth Will
Continue, Despite Labor
Challenges on the Horizon
“2013 marked
the first
time in
nearly two
T
he restaurant workforce continued to grow at a robust rate in 2013, keeping the
industry among the economy’s leaders in job creation. Eating-and-drinking places, the
primary component of the restaurant industry accounting for three-fourths of the total
decades that restaurant-and-foodservice workforce, added jobs at a strong 3.7 percent rate in 2013. The
solid 2013 performance came on the heels of a 3.5 percent increase in 2012, and marked the
first time in nearly two decades that the industry posted back-to-back gains above 3 percent.
the restaurant In comparison, total U.S. employment grew at a 1.7 percent rate in 2013, or less than half of
the gain in eating-and-drinking place jobs. In addition, 2013 represented the 14th consecutive
industry
year in which eating-and-drinking place job growth outpaced the overall economy. During this
14-year period, the number of eating-and-drinking place jobs jumped 29 percent, while total
U.S. employment only rose 5 percent.
posted back- Within the restaurant industry, job growth was broad-based in 2013. The snack-and-
nonalcoholic-beverage bars segment added jobs at an impressive 5.8 percent rate in 2013, followed
by a strong 4.5 percent increase in jobs the quickservice segment. The tableservice segment also
to-back job posted growth above the overall economy, with employment rising 3.4 percent in 2013.
Looking forward, the NRA expects eating-and-drinking places to add jobs at a solid 2.8
gains above
percent rate in 2014, a full percentage point above the projected 1.8 percent gain in total U.S.
employment. The projected 2014 gain will represent the fourth consecutive year in which the
industry posted job growth in excess of 2.5 percent. In comparison, the overall economy hasn’t
3 percent.” registered job growth above 2.5 percent since 1998.
Restaurant Job Growth Projected to Outpace Overall

Economy for 15th Straight Year
Annual job growth: Eating-and-drinking places vs. total U.S. employment
3.5% 3.7%
2.7% 2.8%
1.7% 1.7% 1.8%
1.2%
-0.7% -0.2%
-2.1%
-4.3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Total U.S. Employment Eating-and-Drinking Place Employment
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Association projections *Projected

Arizona and Texas to — said recruiting and retaining employ-
Lead Job Growth ees is a significant or moderate challenge
Future Growth While every state is expected to see their for their business.
Remains Positive restaurant industry workforce expand Looking ahead to 2014, nearly
Over the longer term, the restaurant industry is during the next decade, states in the one-half of quickservice, fast casual and
expected to post steady employment gains well into southern and western regions of the casual dining operators say they expect
the future. The overall restaurant-and-foodservice United States will continue to lead the recruiting and retaining employees to
industry is projected to provide a record 13.5 way. Arizona and Texas are projected to become more difficult for their business.
million jobs in 2014. The total industry workforce is set the pace with restaurant-and-foodser- Fine-dining operators were the least likely
defined by the NRA as employment in all eating- vice job growth above 15 percent between to express concern about competition for
and-drinking-place occupations plus employment in 2014 and 2024. Florida (15.0 percent), labor, but even one-quarter of them say it
foodservice positions that are not located at eating Nevada (14.7 percent) and Georgia (14.4 will likely become more challenging in
and drinking places. percent) also are expected see their 2014.
Looking ahead over the next decade, the NRA restaurant employment base expand at As a result, restaurant operators across
expects the restaurant-and-foodservice industry to rates well above the national average all segments intend to focus more on
provide 14.8 million jobs by 2024, an increase of 1.3 during the next 10 years. labor issues in 2014. Roughly one-half of
million positions during the 10-year period. In terms of total jobs added, Texas is limited-service operators say they plan to
On an occupational level, job growth is expected expected to lead the way with 170,800 devote more resources to recruiting and
to be broad-based over the next decade. Industry restaurant-and-foodservice jobs added retaining employees in 2014, while less
jobs that combine food preparation and service are between 2014 and 2024. California is than one of 10 plan to cut back in this
projected to grow nearly 13 percent between 2014 projected to add 141,100 industry jobs, area. Similarly, nearly half of fine-dining
and 2024, an increase of 402,000 positions. The while Florida’s restaurant workforce is and casual-dining operators plan to spend
restaurant industry is also projected to add 238,000 expected to expand by 134,600 jobs. more on finding and keeping employees
server positions in the next 10 years, an increase of in 2014.
nearly 10 percent. Labor Challenges
The number of restaurant cook positions is Beginning to Reemerge Training Budgets on the
projected to increase 12 percent (132,000 jobs) in As the economy continues to inch closer Rise
the next decade, while chef and head cook jobs are to full recovery, it is inevitable that Restaurant operators also are bolstering
expected to rise 11 percent. restaurant operators’ competition for their training budgets in an effort to
Supervisory and manager positions are also employees will become more intense. The develop their employees, as well as
expected to post gains during the next decade. The NRA asked restaurant operators in enhance the overall productivity of their
number of first-line supervisors/managers of food December 2013 to rate the degree to operation. These actions are most
preparation and serving workers is projected to which recruiting and retaining employees common in the quickservice segment,
increase by 12 percent (107,000 jobs) between 2014 is a challenge for their business. where 69 percent of operators expect to
and 2024, while the number of foodservice A solid majority of operators across all devote more of their resources to training
managers is projected to rise by nearly 8 percent. segments — including more than eight of in 2014 and just a small fraction expect to
Non-foodservice jobs at eating-and-drinking 10 quickservice and fast casual operators cut their training budget.
places — including operational, business, financial,
entertainment, sales, administrative and transporta-
tion occupations — are projected to grow by nearly
50,000 over the next 10 years.
Restaurant Operators Rate the Challenge of
Recruiting and Retaining Employees
Total Restaurant-and-Foodservice
Family Casual Fine Fast
Employment (millions) Dining Dining Dining Quickservice Casual
14.8
13.5
11.9 Recruiting and Retaining Employees in 2013
Significant challenge 32% 40% 30% 46% 43%
Moderate challenge 46% 38% 46% 39% 41%
Little or no challenge 22% 22% 24% 15% 17%
Expectations for Recruiting and Retaining Employees in 2014

More challenging 33% 44% 26% 46% 46%
2004 2014* 2024*
Less challenging 10% 18% 11% 14% 11%
Remain about the same 58% 39% 63% 40% 13%
*Projected

Employee Turnover Trending Upward
From Recession Lows
Restaurant Operators Plan The turnover rate in the hospitality sector rose for the second consecutive year in 2012, but
to Focus More on Recruiting still remained well below pre-recession levels. The overall turnover rate in Restaurant &
Accommodations* sector stood at 60.8 percent in 2012, up roughly four percentage points
and Retaining Employees from the recent low of 56.6 percent in 2010.
50%
Despite the increase, the turnover rate remains low in historical terms. In 2007, prior to
47% 48%
46% the economic downturn, the turnover rate of the Restaurant & Accommodations sector was
36% 80.4 percent. This was on par with turnover in the previous five years (2002-2006), when
overall the annual rate averaged 80 percent.
In comparison, the average turnover rate for all private sector workers stood at 41.3
percent in 2012, essentially unchanged from the previous two years. The recent trends suggest
6% that the traditional labor challenges will more rapidly become a concern again for the
4% 3% 3%
1% restaurant industry, relative to the rest of the economy.
Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast Most sectors of the economy saw their overall turnover rates decline during the challeng-
dining dining dining service Casual
ing economic environment of 2008 - 2010, as workers were less likely to quit their current jobs
Devote More Resources in 2014 with fewer other employment opportunities available.
Devote Fewer Resources in 2014
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant
Turnover Remains Below Pre-Recession Rates

Trends Survey, 2013
Annual turnover rates**: restaurants and accommodations sector versus

Prime Restaurant Labor total U.S. private sector
Pool is Shrinking 82.7% 80.4%
74.7%
While an improving economy will gradually 61.1% 56.6% 58.1% 60.8%
tighten the labor market in the near term,
shifting demographics will have an even more 50.4% 49.5% 48.3% 44.4% 40.5% 40.4% 41.3%
significant impact on the restaurant industry
in the years ahead. In its latest labor force
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
projections, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
is forecasting a sharp decline in the restaurant Total Private Sector Restaurants and Accommodations
industry’s primary labor pool over the next Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
decade. *Note that the turnover figures presented are for the broadly-defined Accommodations and Food Services sector,
because the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not report data for restaurants alone.
Between 2012 and 2022, BLS predicts that **Annual turnover rate is the number of total separations during the entire year as a percent of average annual employment
the number of 16-to-24 year olds in the labor
force will plunge 13.3 percent. In absolute
terms, the number of available 16-to-24-year- Taken together, the number of 16-to-24- 54.9 percent in 2012. By 2022, BLS predicts that
olds — which currently account for four of 10 year-olds in the labor pool will fall by roughly 4 fewer than 50 percent of 16-to-24-year olds-will
industry employees — will decline by 2.8 million between 2002 and 2022. This long-term be in the labor force.
million in the next 10 years. This projected trend is due in large part to a sharp decline in In addition, the population of the prime
drop will come on the heels of a 1.1 million labor force participation in this demographic. restaurant labor pool is expected to shrink in
decline in this key labor force demographic After peaking at 68.6 percent in 1989, the labor the years ahead. BLS projects the population of
between 2002 and 2012. force participation rate among this group fell to 16-to-24-year-olds to decline by 1.6 million
Ramping Up Training 16-to-24-Year-Olds in the A Growing Proportion

Proportion of restaurant operators Labor Force Projected to of Older Individuals Will
planning to devote more or less of their
resources to employee training in 2014 Decline by 2.8 Million by 2022 Remain in the Labor Force
69% Percent change in the labor force by age group Labor force participation rate by age group
54% 59% 56%
44% 56.1%
83.3%81.4%81.0%
4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 28.8% 63.3% 61.9%64.5%67.5%
54.9%49.6%
Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast 1.9% 18.5%23.0%

dining dining dining service Casual -0.5%
13.2%
-4.8%
-13.3%
Devote More Resources in 2014
Age 16-24 Age 25-54 Age 55 and Age 16-24 Age 25-54 Age 55-64 Age 65 and
Devote Fewer Resources in 2014
older Older
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant 2002 to 2012 2012 to 2022* 2002 2012 2022*
Trends Survey, 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, *Projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, *Projected

between 2012 and 2022, which follows an between 2012 and 2022, an increase of nearly sharply from 13.2 percent in 2002 and 18.5
increase of 3.4 million during the previous 10 29 percent. This projected increase follows an percent in 2012.
years. 11.7 million gain in this labor force cohort The composition of the U.S. labor force is
In contrast, the number of older workers during the previous 10 years. changing rapidly, and restaurants will be one of
will rise sharply in the years ahead, due to the Older individuals also are expected to the most affected sectors in the years ahead.
aging of the baby boomers, as well as increasing remain in the labor force much longer than Successful operators will find ways to not only
levels of labor force participation. According to they did in the past. According to BLS, the compete with other restaurants for employees,
BLS, the number of individuals age 55 or older labor force participation rate among individuals but also with other industries across the
in the labor force will rise by 9.4 million age 65 or older will hit 23 percent in 2022, up economy.
Restaurant Workforce Projected to Reach 14.8 Million by 2024

Growth in restaurant industry employment by occupation, 2014 to 2024
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, 2014-2024
2014 2024 Jobs Total % Avg. Annual
Employment Employment Added Change % Change
TOTAL RESTAURANT INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT 13,540,000 14,845,000 1,305,000 9.6% 0.9%

Food Service Managers 332,000 358,000 26,000 7.8% 0.8%
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 12,381,000 13,612,000 1,231,000 9.9% 1.0%
Supervisors, food preparation and serving workers 1,009,000 1,129,000 120,000 11.9% 1.1%
Chefs and head cooks 118,000 131,000 13,000 11.0% 1.1%
First-line supervisors/managers of
food preparation and serving workers 891,000 998,000 107,000 12.0% 1.1%
Cooks and food preparation workers 3,118,000 3,403,000 285,000 9.1% 0.9%
Cooks 2,270,000 2,479,000 209,000 9.2% 0.9%
Cooks, fast food 550,000 577,000 27,000 4.9% 0.5%
Cooks, institution and cafeteria 436,000 479,000 43,000 9.9% 0.9%
Cooks, private household 7,000 7,000 0 0.0% 0.0%
Cooks, restaurant 1,080,000 1,212,000 132,000 12.2% 1.2%
Cooks, short order 170,000 174,000 4,000 2.4% 0.2%
Cooks, all other 27,000 30,000 3,000 11.1% 1.1%
Food preparation workers 848,000 924,000 76,000 9.0% 0.9%
Food and beverage serving workers 6,886,000 7,631,000 745,000 10.8% 1.0%
Bartenders 580,000 638,000 58,000 10.0% 1.0%
Fast food and counter workers 3,611,000 4,035,000 424,000 11.7% 1.1%
Combined food preparation and serving
workers, including fast food 3,169,000 3,571,000 402,000 12.7% 1.2%
Counter attendants, cafeteria,
food concession, and coffee shop 442,000 464,000 22,000 5.0% 0.5%
Waiters and waitresses 2,440,000 2,678,000 238,000 9.8% 0.9%
Food servers, non-restaurant 255,000 280,000 25,000 9.8% 0.9%
Other food preparation and serving related workers 1,368,000 1,449,000 81,000 5.9% 0.6%
Dining room and cafeteria attendants and
bartender helpers 424,000 446,000 22,000 5.2% 0.5%
Dishwashers 540,000 577,000 37,000 6.9% 0.7%
Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and
coffee shop 364,000 382,000 18,000 4.9% 0.5%
All other food preparation and serving related
workers 40,000 44,000 4,000 10.0% 1.0%
Other Eating-and-Drinking Place Occupations* 827,000 875,000 48,000 5.8% 0.6%
*Includes operational, business, financial, entertainment, sales, administrative and transportation occupations
Source: National Restaurant Association projections, based on historical data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

State Restaurant Industry Employment Growth
Projected growth in restaurant industry employment* from 2014 to 2024
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, 2014-2024

2014 2024 Jobs Total % Avg. Annual
Employment Employment Added Change % Change
Alabama 169,400 192,900 23,500 13.9% 1.3%

Alaska 27,200 31,000 3,800 14.0% 1.3%
Arizona 265,400 306,900 41,500 15.6% 1.5%
Arkansas 111,800 126,700 14,900 13.3% 1.3%
Fastest Restaurant
California 1,544,000 1,685,100 141,100 9.1% 0.9% Job Growth
Colorado 250,500 283,800 33,300 13.3% 1.3% Projected growth in restaurant-
Connecticut 152,700 160,700 8,000 5.2% 0.5% and-foodservice jobs, 2014 to 2024
Delaware 43,900 49,600 5,700 13.0% 1.2% 1 Arizona 15.6%
District of Columbia 59,400 63,300 3,900 6.6% 0.6% 2 Texas 15.3%
Florida 899,000 1,033,600 134,600 15.0% 1.4% 3 Florida 15.0%
Georgia 405,800 464,200 58,400 14.4% 1.4% 4 Nevada 14.7%
Hawaii 85,300 91,000 5,700 6.7% 0.6% 5 Georgia 14.4%
Idaho 61,400 68,400 7,000 11.4% 1.1% 6 North Carolina 14.0%
Illinois 515,600 549,200 33,600 6.5% 0.6% 7 Alaska 14.0%
Indiana 308,800 331,800 23,000 7.4% 0.7% 8 Alabama 13.9%
Iowa 142,800 153,600 10,800 7.6% 0.7% 9 Utah 13.4%
Kansas 131,800 143,300 11,500 8.7% 0.8% 10 Arkansas 13.3%
Kentucky 195,700 212,400 16,700 8.5% 0.8% 11 Colorado 13.3%
Louisiana 197,000 210,200 13,200 6.7% 0.7% 12 Delaware 13.0%
Maine 60,100 64,500 4,400 7.3% 0.7%
Maryland 234,900 251,500 16,600 7.1% 0.7%
Massachusetts 317,400 335,400 18,000 5.7% 0.6%
Michigan 399,300 422,300 23,000 5.8% 0.6%
Minnesota 260,800 278,100 17,300 6.6% 0.6%
Mississippi 115,500 127,200 11,700 10.1% 1.0%
Missouri 281,700 300,300 18,600 6.6% 0.6%
Montana 51,800 55,600 3,800 7.3% 0.7%
Nebraska 87,000 92,300 5,300 6.1% 0.6%
Nevada 199,000 228,200 29,200 14.7% 1.4% Largest Restaurant
New Hampshire 61,600 66,300 4,700 7.6% 0.7%
New Jersey 322,300 340,900 18,600 5.8% 0.6%
Workforces
New Mexico 85,500 94,900 9,400 11.0% 1.0% Number of restaurant-and-
foodservice jobs in 2014
New York 772,000 818,700 46,700 6.0% 0.6%
North Carolina 426,200 486,000 59,800 14.0% 1.3% 1 California 1,544,000
North Dakota 39,400 44,200 4,800 12.2% 1.2% 2 Texas 1,117,300
Ohio 534,300 566,500 32,200 6.0% 0.6% 3 Florida 899,000
Oklahoma 160,600 177,000 16,400 10.2% 1.0% 4 New York 772,000
Oregon 176,200 196,800 20,600 11.7% 1.1% 5 Pennsylvania 538,000
Pennsylvania 538,000 565,000 27,000 5.0% 0.5% 6 Ohio 534,300
Rhode Island 50,600 53,700 3,100 6.1% 0.6% 7 Illinois 515,600
South Carolina 206,000 231,300 25,300 12.3% 1.2% 8 North Carolina 426,200
South Dakota 46,200 50,600 4,400 9.5% 0.9% 9 Georgia 405,800
Tennessee 283,000 307,500 24,500 8.7% 0.8% 10 Michigan 399,300
Texas 1,117,300 1,288,100 170,800 15.3% 1.4% 11 Virginia 354,900
Utah 111,600 126,600 15,000 13.4% 1.3% 12 New Jersey 322,300
Vermont 26,400 28,000 1,600 6.1% 0.6% Source: National Restaurant Association
Virginia 354,900 388,000 33,100 9.3% 0.9%
*Includes employment in all eating-and-drinking
Washington 279,700 307,100 27,400 9.8% 0.9% place occupations, plus employment in foodser-
West Virginia 73,100 76,800 3,700 5.1% 0.5% vice positions that are not located at eating-and-
drinking places
Wisconsin 272,300 288,200 15,900 5.8% 0.6% Source: National Restaurant Association projec-
Wyoming 27,800 29,700 1,900 6.8% 0.7% tions, based on historical data from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics

The National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation, our state restaurant association
partners, National Restaurant Association members, and educators are investing in the future
workforce through ProStart.
ProStart’s Impact:
• Over 95,000 students this year
• 1,900 secondary schools
• 48 states, U.S. military bases and Guam
• Teaching culinary arts and restaurant
management skills
• Gateway to rewarding restaurant and
foodservice careers
ProStart® – Feeding Dreams.
Building Futures.
Learn more at NRAEF.org
© 2014 National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation. All rights reserved. ProStart is a registered trademark of the National Restaurant Association
Educational Foundation. The logo appearing next to ProStart is a trademark of the National Restaurant Association.
Tableservice Segment
To Post Modest Sales
Growth in 2014
“The National
Restaurant
Association
expects the
tableservice
A
lthough the economy is several years into its recovery from the Great Recession,
segment’s consumers remain generally cautious. Their persistent uncertainty about the economy
has resulted in prolonged pullback on spending by many households, with consumer
spending growth at rates well below what would be expected during a normal economic
sales to total recovery.

On the bright side, NRA research shows that consumers’ pent-up demand for tableservice
restaurants remains relatively high by historical standards, which means they are poised to
$212.4 billion increase patronage when their financial situation improves.
Driven by an expected improvement in the economic environment, the tableservice
in 2014, a
restaurant segment is projected to continue to expand in 2014. The National Restaurant
Association expects the tableservice segment’s sales to total $212.4 billion in 2014, a 2.6 percent
increase over its 2013 sales of $207.0 billion.
2.6 percent In inflation-adjusted terms, total tableservice sales are projected to edge up 0.2 percent in
2014, the fourth consecutive year of real sales growth. However, it also represents the third
straight year of real sales growth below 1 percent, which illustrates the challenging business
increase over environment that persists for tableservice operators.
its 2013 sales Tableservice Restaurant Segment Sales Growth

of $207.0 3.5%
3.1%
billion.”
2.6%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
2011 2012 2013 2014*
Nominal Sales Growth Real (Inflation-adjusted) Sales Growth

Source: National Restaurant Association; *projected

Cautious Optimism for 2014
Looking ahead to 2014, the sentiment of tableservice operators
Setting the Bar Low generally ranges from “more of the same” to somewhat
When asked in November 2013 to assess the optimistic. Casual- and fine-dining operators are the most
current state of business conditions for the bullish, with nearly four of 10 saying they expect their business
overall U.S. restaurant industry, tableservice to be better in 2014 than it was in 2013. One of 10 casual- and
operators were generally negative. Less than fine-dining operators think their sales will be down in 2014,
one percent of tableservice operators said while one-half think business will remain about the same.
current business conditions were “excellent,” Family dining operators are somewhat less positive about
while a majority described business 2014, with only 27 percent expecting their sales to improve.
conditions as either “fair” or “poor.” Seven percent of family-dining operators think their sales will
Forty-two percent of fine dining operators decline in 2014, while two-thirds said business will probably
said business conditions for the overall U.S. remain about the same.
restaurant industry were “good,” compared With cost challenges likely to remain at the forefront, tableservice operators have lower
with 34 percent of casual dining operator and expectations for their profitability in 2014. Relative to their sales prospects, a higher proportion
just 19 percent of family dining operators. of casual- and fine-dining operators are expecting profitability to be down in 2014. Among
family dining operators, 24 percent expect their profitability will improve in 2014, while 33
Tableservice Operators’ Rating of percent think it will be down.
Business Conditions for the Overall U.S.
Restaurant Industry Tableservice Operators’ Outlook for Sales and Profitability in 2014
fine Dining Tableservice Sales in 2014 Tableservice Profitability in 2014
66%
6% 52% 42%
55% 52% 51%
Casual Dining 43% 44%
37% 38%
33% 31% 32%
11% 56% 34% 27% 24% 25%
17%
family Dining 10%
7% 8%
16% 64% 19% 1%
Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining
Poor Fair Good Excellent
Better Than 2013 About the Same as 2013 Down From 2013
Trends Survey, 2013
When it came to their own business,

tableservice operators were somewhat more
upbeat. Nearly one of 10 operators in each Competition Remains fine-dining operators report this as a chal-
tableservice segment said business conditions Strong lenge, but a majority of operators in each of the
for their own restaurant were “excellent,” while With the uneven economic recovery continu- three tableservice segments say competition
four out of 10 described business conditions ing to constrain spending, the competition with the limited-service segment will remain
as “good.” However, a majority of operators within the restaurant industry for consumers’ steady or intensify in 2014.
still rated current business conditions for their limited discretionary dollars remains intense.
own restaurant as either “fair” or “poor.” Eight of 10 tableservice operators say Traffic Growth Remains
competing with other tableservice restaurants Challenging
Tableservice Operators’ Assessment
posed a significant or moderate challenge for Given the extreme competition, it’s no
of Business Conditions for their Own
their business in 2013. They don’t expect much surprise that building business is among the
Restaurant
of a letup in 2014 either, with nine of 10 top concerns for tableservice operators. Nine
fine Dining
reporting that competition within the of 10 tableservice operators across all three
7% 46% 41% 6%
tableservice segment will either become more segments say that attracting new customers
Casual Dining challenging or remain the same. was a significant or moderate challenge in
13% 41% 38% 9% Tableservice operators also are battling 2013. Looking ahead, a similar proportion
family Dining with the limited-service segment for custom- expects these difficulties to get stronger or
6% 51% 39% 1%
ers, with three of four family dining and casual remain steady in 2014.
dining operators reporting that competing The challenge to bring back repeat
Poor Fair Good Excellent with quickservice or fast casual restaurants was customers was less of a concern for tableser-
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant a significant or moderate challenge for their vice operators, and in fact roughly one-half of
Trends Survey, 2013 business in 2013. A smaller proportion of tableservice operators say repeat customers

Tableservice Operators Reported Growth
in Repeat Business in 2013
Tableservice Repeat customers as a proportion of total sales in 2013
Operators Rate … versus 2012

55%
49% 47%
51%
46%
Competitive Intensities 40%
Family Casual Fine

Dining Dining Dining
5% 4% 3%
Competing with Tableservice Restaurants in 2013
Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining
Significant challenge 22% 23% 19%
Larger amount of sales About the same amount of sales
Moderate challenge 58% 60% 60% Smaller amount of sales
Little or no challenge 20% 17% 21% Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Expectations for Competing with Tableservice Restaurants
in 2014
More challenging 16% 27% 21%
Successful Loyalty Strategies Used by
Less challenging 11% 14% 9%
Remain about the same 73% 60% 70%
Tableservice Operators in 2013
Family Casual Fine
Competing with Quickservice or Fast Casual Restaurants in Dining Dining Dining
2013
Significant challenge 31% 23% 13% Add/expand rewards program 17% 25% 26%
Moderate challenge 45% 54% 41% Enhance food & menu quality 26% 20% 16%
Little or no challenge 24% 24% 46% Focus on quality of service 22% 21% 19%
Expectations for Competing with Quickservice or Fast Increase promotions & specials 6% 14% 14%
Casual Restaurants in 2014 Focus on direct customer interaction 10% 7% 14%
More challenging 28% 25% 11% Expand social media presence 7% 7% 12%
Less challenging 5% 16% 21% Keep prices low 10% 5% 5%
Remain about the same 67% 59% 67% Train staff to improve service 6% 10% 3%
Focus on consistency 10% 6% 2%
The Challenge of Building Business Email marketing/newsletter 1% 3% 9%
Family Casual Fine
Dining Dining Dining
Attracting New Customers in 2013

Moderate challenge 49% 53% 53% represented a larger amount of their sales in 2013 than they did in 2012.
Little or no challenge 9% 7% 11% Less than 5 percent of tableservice operators say repeat customers made
Expectations for Attracting New Customers in 2014 up a smaller amount of their sales in 2013.
More challenging 46% 42% 37% The NRA also surveyed tableservice operators about successful
Less challenging 4% 7% 11% things that they did in 2013 to enhance customer loyalty and repeat
Remain about the same 50% 51% 51% business. The addition or expansion of a rewards program top the list
among casual dining and fine dining operators, with roughly one of four
Bringing Back Repeat Customers in 2013
saying this was successful for them. Among family dining operators, the
most common successful strategy was to enhance the quality of their
Moderate challenge 54% 47% 33%
food and menu items.
One of five operators across all three tableservice segments say they
Little or no challenge 37% 42% 60%
saw positive results by placing additional focus on the quality of their
Expectations for Bringing Back Repeat Customers in 2014
service, while operators also made additional efforts to increase the
More challenging 18% 20% 12%
direct interaction with their customers. Twelve percent of fine-dining
operators and seven percent of their family- and casual-dining counter-
parts said they found success by expanding their social media presence
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013 in 2013.

Attracting Customers restaurant to have some of their favorite items on Younger consumers tend to be more
Before restaurant operators can work on generat- the menu, while nearly two-thirds say healthy adventurous in their restaurant selections, with a
ing repeat business, they have to get customers in menu items are important to them. majority of 18-to-34-year-olds saying important
the door the first time. When asked what factors Finding a tableservice restaurant that is factors are food they haven’t tried before and
are important when it comes to choosing a convenient to their home or work place is restaurants they haven’t been to before.
tableservice restaurant, consumers are most likely important to two-thirds of consumers, while 57 Due to the importance of repeat business,
to report good service and good value. Eight of 10 percent say the ease of parking at the restaurant is the NRA’s 2014 Restaurant Industry Forecast
consumers say it’s important for a tableservice a key factor in choosing a tableservice restaurant. takes a detailed look at the attitudes, prefer-
What Do Consumers Look For in a Tableservice Restaurant?

Attributes customers list as reasons for choosing a tableservice restaurant
All 18 35 45 55 65 or
Adults Men Women to 34 to 44 to 54 to 64 Older
Good service 87% 86% 88% 89% 89% 82% 87% 86%
Good value 82% 81% 84% 84% 83% 81% 81% 82%
Some of their favorite items are on the menu 81% 77% 84% 78% 84% 81% 82% 81%
Convenience to their home or work place 65% 64% 66% 68% 68% 67% 56% 63%
Healthy menu items 64% 59% 68% 66% 59% 63% 65% 66%
Décor or atmosphere 63% 61% 65% 59% 66% 64% 64% 64%
Family or child friendly 58% 54% 62% 64% 62% 53% 50% 56%
Ease of parking at the restaurant 57% 56% 58% 52% 52% 57% 60% 66%
Locally sourced food 48% 44% 51% 47% 44% 48% 48% 53%
Restaurant they haven’t been to before 43% 43% 43% 52% 44% 38% 39% 37%
Food they haven’t tried before 40% 44% 37% 55% 38% 35% 33% 28%
Takeout or delivery options 39% 38% 41% 45% 50% 38% 32% 27%
Organic or environmentally friendly food 39% 33% 44% 43% 37% 35% 37% 37%
Technology options, such as smartphone apps, tablets or wi-fi 18% 19% 17% 24% 18% 17% 13% 11%
What Do Frequent Customers Look For in a Tableservice Restaurant?

Attributes frequent customers list as reasons for choosing a tableservice restaurant
Frequent
Frequent Frequent Off-Premises
All Fullservice Quickservice Dinner
Adults Customers Customers Customers
Good service 87% 90% 91% 90%
Good value 82% 84% 87% 82%
Some of their favorite items are on the menu 81% 82% 84% 81%
Convenience to their home or work place 65% 70% 72% 69%
Healthy menu items 64% 61% 61% 58%
Décor or atmosphere 63% 67% 65% 67%
Family or child friendly 58% 51% 59% 55%
Ease of parking at the restaurant 57% 57% 59% 55%
Locally sourced food 48% 44% 41% 44%
Good Service
Restaurant they haven’t been to before 43% 45% 48% 43%
Food they haven’t tried before 40% 41% 40% 42%
and value are
Takeout or delivery options 39% 39% 47% 53% the most important
Organic or environmentally friendly food 39% 34% 35% 37% factors for consumers
Technology options, such as smartphone apps, tablets or wi-fi 18% 20% 22% 19% when choosing a
Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2013 tableservice
restaurant.

ences and motivations of frequent restaurant on average.
customers to help restaurant operators attract Each of these customer groups rely heavily
Roughly two-thirds of
this important demographic in today’s on the restaurant industry in their daily lives.
tableservice operators are planning
challenging business environment. As such, it is important for restaurant operators
Three categories of frequent restaurant to know how to reach these customers, what to invest more in email and text
customers were created for this analysis: their tastes and preferences are, and what message marketing in 2014.
• Frequent Fullservice Customers: These motivates their restaurant decisions.
customers eat a meal at a sit-down restaurant When it comes to choosing a tableservice
with waiter or waitress service more than once restaurant, the factors that are important to Successful Marketing
a week, on average. frequent restaurant customers are generally in Strategies
• Frequent Quickservice Customers: These line with the overall adult population. However, Not surprisingly, the best ways of reaching
customers purchase a meal or snack from a one key difference is the desire for off-premises customers varies significantly by age. Younger
quickservice restaurant or carry-out place more options. Fifty-three percent of frequent consumers are much more likely than older
than once a week, on average. off-premises dinner customers and 47 percent adults to say they would be receptive to a
• Frequent Off-Premises Dinner Custom- of frequent quickservice customers say these tableservice restaurant communicating with
ers: These customers purchase their dinner off-premises options are a deciding factor for them by Facebook, Twitter, email or text
meal from a restaurant, carry-out or delivery them. Thirty-nine percent of all adults reported messages.
place and eat it at home more than once a week, similarly. Frequent restaurant customers also are more
likely than the general public to indicate they
would be receptive to social media and
electronic marketing methods.
Building Off-Premises Business For their part, tableservice operators are
The off-premises market is a growing part of the foodservice business, and savvy tableservice making the investments to more effectively
operators are positioning themselves to take advantage of this trend. One-half of family dining reach customers in the digital world. Nearly
and casual dining operators and 37 percent of fine dining operators say they plan to make three of four fine-dining and casual-dining
additional efforts to expand the off-premises side of their business in 2014. operators and more than three of five family
This business strategy is timely because a growing proportion of consumers are seeking dining operators say they plan to devote more
out off-premises options at tableservice restaurants. Fifty-six percent of consumers say they resources to social media marketing in 2014. In
would likely order delivery from a tableservice restaurant directly to their home or office, addition, roughly two-thirds of tableservice
while 46 percent say they would utilize curbside takeout from a tableservice restaurant. operators are planning to invest more in email
Younger consumers and frequent quickservice and off-premises dinner customers are much more and text message marketing in 2014.
likely to say they would take advantage of these off-premises options at tableservice restaurants. In contrast, tableservice operators across all
three segments are planning to reduce the
amount of resources that they spend on
Building Off-Premises Frequency Tableservice Operators
traditional marketing, such as direct mail or
Percent of adults who say they are likely use the following Planning to Expand
off-premises options at tableservice restaurants
newspaper ads.
Off-Premises Options in
Delivery From 2014
a Tableservice Curbside Getting to Yes
Restaurant Takeout from In a challenging business environment,
Directly to a Tableservice
Family determining what nudges customers to choose
Demographic Group Home or Office Restaurant
Dining 49% one restaurant over another can give an operator
All Adults 56% 46%
a competitive advantage. Word of mouth has
18 to 34 Years Old 72% 59%
always been a restaurant’s best source of
35 to 44 Years Old 65% 52%
advertising, and that holds true even in today’s
45 to 54 Years Old
55 to 64 Years Old
61%
40%
47%
36% 52% Casual
Dining
technology-driven world. More than nine of 10
consumers say they are likely to factor a
65 Years or Older 27% 24% recommendation from a family member or
Frequent fullservice friend into their decision to choose a restaurant.
customers 61% 44% Frequent restaurant customers and younger
Frequent quickservice
customers 70% 56%
Fine
Dining 37% adults are more likely to incorporate informa-
tion from websites and social media into their
Frequent off-premises
decision-making process, as well as being
dinner customers 69% 55%
Source: National Restaurant Association, influenced by special offers though programs,
Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2013 Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
such as Groupon or LivingSocial.

Younger consumers are much more
likely than older adults to say
they would be receptive to a
tableservice restaurant
communicating with them
electronically.
Younger Consumers are More Receptive to Social Media and Electronic Marketing
Percent of consumers who would likely be receptive to the following marketing methods by tableservice restaurants
Frequent
All 18 35 45 55 65 or Fullservice Quickservice Dinner
Adults to 34 to 45 to 54 to 64 Older Customers Customers Customers
Notification of specials or events through

social media like Facebook or Twitter 36% 50% 46% 34% 22% 15% 41% 45% 43%
Email notifications of daily specials 34% 46% 35% 36% 28% 18% 42% 46% 48%
Cell phone text message notifications of
daily specials 27% 38% 32% 27% 16% 12% 35% 41% 38%
Marketing Goes Digital More than

nine of 10
Percent of tableservice operators planning to devote more or less of their resources to the consumers say
following marketing methods in 2014 they are likely to
factor a recom-
Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining
mendation from a
More Fewer More Fewer More Fewer
family member or
Resources Resources Resources Resources Resources Resources
friend into their
Traditional marketing (such as decision to choose
direct mail or newspaper ads) 14% 27% 19% 33% 12% 30% a restaurant.
Electronic marketing (such as email
or text messages) 65% 6% 64% 2% 67% 0%
Social-media marketing (such as
Facebook ads or special offers
via Twitter and Foursquare) 62% 4% 72% 1% 74% 1%
Factors that Go Into Choosing a Restaurant

Percent of consumers who say the following items are likely to factor into their decision when choosing a restaurant
Frequent
Recommendation from family member

or friend 92% 96% 94% 94% 89% 82% 97% 96% 94%
Restaurant review in a newspaper,
magazine or online dining guide 57% 59% 59% 59% 57% 51% 61% 61% 58%
Advertisement or promotion received by email 44% 47% 45% 51% 42% 32% 50% 53% 49%
A special offer through programs like
Groupon or Living Social 42% 50% 49% 42% 37% 26% 53% 54% 52%
Information on a consumer-driven
review site, such as Yelp 33% 49% 34% 34% 20% 12% 37% 45% 38%
Information on social media tools such as
Facebook or Twitter 32% 46% 41% 32% 17% 8% 34% 42% 39%

Filling Seats During Off-Peak Periods
W ith consumers’ pent-up demand for
restaurants remaining near historically
high levels, they often are looking for ways to
Off-Peak Specials
53%
62%
Frugal Flexibility
Percent of consumers who say they
51%
would consider dining out more often
increase restaurant frequency while staying 36%
if menu prices were lower during
28%
23%
within their budget. One way restaurant off-peak times
operators can help in this area is by cutting
menu prices during times when the restau- Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining All Adults 72%
rant isn’t as busy. 18-to-34 Years Old 77%
Tableservice operators who currently offer
Roughly one of four family- and casual- off-peak dining at reduced prices 35-to-44 Years Old 76%
dining operators and 36 percent of fine-dining Tableservice operators who believe it will 45-to-54 Years Old 74%
become more popular in this segment in the
operators say they currently offer off-peak future 55-to-64 Years Old 68%
dining at reduced prices. In addition, a Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant 65 Years or Older 61%
majority of operators believe this will become Trends Survey, 2013
Frequent Fullservice Customers 75%
more popular in their segment in the future.
Frequent Quickservice Customers 80%
The demand is certainly there among
Frequent Off-Premises Dinner
consumers, with 72 percent of adults saying Among frequent quickservice and off-premis- Customers 81%
they would consider dining out more often if es dinner customers, eight of 10 said they
Source: National Restaurant Association, National
menu prices were lower during off-peak times. would likely take advantage of this option. Household Survey, 2013
Controlling Costs Tableservice Operators Expect Cost

In addition to focusing on ways to build business, operators are well aware of the
pressures on the cost side of their operation. The vast majority of tableservice Crunch to Continue
operators say food costs, labor costs, and gas/energy/utility costs all posed Family Casual Fine
significant or moderate challenges for their business in 2013. Looking forward, the Dining Dining Dining
expectation is that there will be very little abatement of these concerns in 2014. Food Costs in 2013
Challenges Continue Moderate challenge 47% 42% 63%
Looking ahead to 2014, tableservice operators expect to face many of the same Little or no challenge 4% 5% 7%
challenges they did in 2013. Topping the list among family dining and casual Expectations for Food Costs in 2014
dining operators is complying with health care reform. In the fine dining segment, More challenging 75% 63% 59%
the economy is the most frequently mentioned response among operators. Less challenging 4% 7% 4%
Tableservice Operators Expect Legislative & Labor Costs in 2013

Regulatory Issues to Pose Challenges in 2014 Moderate challenge 37% 37% 46%
Top challenges expected by tableservice operators in 2014 Little or no challenge 2% 2% 3%
Family Casual Fine Expectations for Labor Costs in 2014

Dining Dining Dining More challenging 75% 72% 62%
Health Care Reform 25% 22% 16% Remain about the same 23% 24% 37%
The Economy 10% 11% 24%
Government 21% 8% 6% Gas/Energy/Utility Costs in 2013
Building & Maintaining Sales Volume 9% 14% 7% Significant challenge 47% 39% 33%
Food Costs 7% 8% 10% Moderate challenge 49% 50% 53%
Recruiting & Retaining Employees 6% 10% 6% Little or no challenge 4% 11% 14%
Competition 5% 8% 7% Expectations for Gas/Energy/Utility Costs in 2014
Minimum Wage Increase 9% 3% 7% More challenging 46% 55% 48%
Labor Costs 4% 6% 1% Less challenging 13% 7% 9%
Profitability 2% 4% 3% Remain about the same 41% 39% 43%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013

National Restaurant Association
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n Nationa
Restaurant.org/Store
l
Restaura
nt Asso
ciation
•
Deloitte
Limited-Service Segment
Continues to Lead Industry
Sales Growth in 2014
“The National
Restaurant
Association
expects the
limited-
service
I
n the midst of an economic recovery that has been defined by tightened purse strings, the
eating-place limited-service restaurant segment has performed relatively well. Limited-service restau-
rant sales and traffic levels continue to improve, despite an uneven economy and damp-
ened consumer confidence.
segment* to Meanwhile, NRA research shows that consumers’ pent-up demand for both on- and
off-premises dining remains elevated by historical standards, which suggests that customer
demand will continue to grow as the economy improves.
post total sales The National Restaurant Association expects the limited-service eating-place segment* to
post total sales of $234.9 billion in 2014, a 4.4 percent increase over its 2013 sales volume of
$224.9 billion. In inflation-adjusted terms, overall limited-service sales are expected to increase
of $234.9 2.1 percent in 2014, down slightly from a 2.4 percent real gain in 2013.
Within the broadly defined segment, limited-service restaurant sales are expected to total
billion in 2014,
$195.4 billion in 2014, up 4.4 percent from 2013. Snack-and-nonalcoholic-beverage bars are
projected to register sales of $30.7 billion, a 5.0 percent increase over 2013. Cafeterias,
grill-buffets and buffets are expected to post sales of $8.8 billion in 2014, a 2.5 percent gain
a 4.4 percent over 2013.
increase over Projected 2014 Limited-Service Sales Growth

its 2013 sales
5.0%
4.4%
volume of 2.7%
2.5%
$224.9 billion.”
2.1%
0.1%
*The limited-service eating-place segment
consists of three categories: limited-service
restaurants (which includes both quickser- Limited-Service Restaurants Snack and Nonalcoholic Cafeterias, Grill-Buffets,
vice and fast casual), cafeterias, grill-buffets Beverage Bars and Buffets
and buffets, and snack-and-nonalcoholic-
beverage bars. In the text that follows, the Nominal Sales Growth Real (Inflation-adjusted) Sales Growth
term “limited-service” refers to the broadly
defined limited-service eating-place Source: National Restaurant Association
segment.

Mixed Forecast for 2014
The uncertainty that remains among limited-service operators is illustrated in their outlook for
State of the LImited- sales and profitability in 2014. A majority of fast casual operators expect to have stronger sales
Service Industry in 2014, while just 5 percent are anticipating a sales decline. Quickservice operators were
In general, limited-service operators’ somewhat less optimistic, with 29 percent forecasting higher sales in 2014 and less than one in
assessment of the restaurant industry remains 10 expecting a sales decline.
relatively downbeat. When asked in Novem- On the profitability front, the outlook within the limited-service segment is quite divergent.
ber 2013 to assess current business conditions One-half of fast casual operators expect their profitability to improve in 2014, while just 16
for the overall U.S. restaurant industry, none expect a decline. In contrast, only about one in five quickservice operators think their business
gave a rating of “excellent.” Only 31 percent of will be more profitable in 2014, while two in five expect the opposite.
fast casual operators and 22 percent of
quickservice operators said business
Limited-Service Operators’ Outlook for Sales and Profitability in 2014
conditions were “good,” while the vast
majority gave ratings of either “fair” or “poor.” Limited-Service Sales in 2014 Limited-Service Profitability in 2014
50%
62% 40%
Limited-Service Operators’ Rating of 55%
38%
34%
Business Conditions for the Overall 40%
22%
U.S. Restaurant Industry 29% 16%
Quickservice 9% 5%
13% 65% 22% Quickservice Fast Casual Quickservice Fast Casual

Better Than 2013 About the Same as 2013 Down From 2013
Fast Casual Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
7% 62% 31%
Poor Fair Good Excellent 1/2 Number of fast casual operators who expect their
profitability to improve in 2014
Trends Survey, 2013
Speaking about their own business,

Assessing the Competition 41 percent reporting a moderate challenge for
limited-service operators took a more
Among all foodservice options available to their business.
positive tone. One of 10 limited-service
customers, limited-service operators say
operators said business conditions for their
competition is the most intense within their own Building Business
own restaurant were “excellent,” while four of
segment. Eighty-eight percent of quickservice In today’s challenging environment, a top priority
10 said conditions were “good.” Still, one-half
operators and 84 percent of fast casual operators for operators across all segments remains
of limited-service operators said their
say competing with other limited-service expanding their customer base. Among limited-
business conditions remained in the “fair” or
restaurants posted a significant or moderate service operators, more than nine of 10 say that
“poor” categories, which indicates that the
challenge for their business in 2013. They don’t attracting new customers posed a significant or
segment is not yet running on all cylinders.
expect to get a reprieve in 2014, with more than moderate challenge for their business in 2013. In
nine of 10 operators expecting it to become terms of their expectations for 2014, the vast
Limited-Service Operators’ Assessment
more challenging or remain about the same. majority expect attracting customers to be at least
of Business Conditions for their Own
Limited-service operators were much less as difficult as it was in 2013.
Restaurant
likely to express concerns about tableservice Getting customers to return was much less
Quickservice restaurants, with only about one of 20 operators of a concern for limited-service operators, with
10% 41% 40% 9%
saying tableservice competition was a about four of 10 fast casual operators and
significant challenge for their business. Looking about one-quarter of quickservice operators
forward to 2014, limited-service operators are saying this caused little or no challenge for
Fast Casual
more likely to report tableservice competition their business in 2013.
9% 43% 38% 11% will become less of an issue for them, as In fact, nearly six of 10 limited-service
opposed to becoming more challenging. operators say repeat customers represented a
Poor Fair Good Excellent Fast casual operators are more likely to larger amount of sales in 2013 than they did in
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant identify grocery stores as competitors, with 16 2012, while less than one of 10 say repeat
Trends Survey, 2013 percent reporting a significant challenge and customers’ share of sales declined.

Limited-Service Operators Rate the
Challenge of Building Business
Limited-Service

Fast
Quickservice Casual
Operators Assess the Attracting New Customers in 2013

Significant challenge 39% 48%
Competition Moderate challenge

Little or no challenge
55%
6%
50%
2%
Expectations for Attracting New Customers in 2014
Fast
Quickservice Casual More challenging 42% 50%
Less challenging 5% 11%
Competing with Quickservice or Fast Casual Restaurants Remain about the same 53% 39%
in 2013
Bringing Back Repeat Customers in 2013
Moderate challenge 52% 54%
Little or no challenge 12% 16% Moderate challenge 65% 48%
Expectations for Competing with Quickservice or Fast Little or no challenge 23% 38%
Casual Restaurants in 2014 Expectations for Bringing Back Repeat Customers in 2014
More challenging 39% 41% More challenging 23% 16%
Less challenging 6% 7% Less challenging 11% 20%
Remain about the same 55% 52% Remain about the same 66% 64%
Competing with Tableservice Restaurants in 2013
Significant challenge
Moderate challenge
3%
37% 45%
5%
Limited-Service Operators Reported
Little or no challenge 60% 50% Growth in Repeat Business in 2013
Repeat customers as a proportion of total sales in 2013
Expectations for Competing with Tableservice Restaurants
in 2014 vs. 2012
57% 58%
More challenging 9% 13%
40% 35%
7%
Quickservice Fast Casual

Competing with Grocery Stores in 2013
Larger amount of sales About the same amount of sales
Significant challenge 6% 16% Smaller amount of sales
Moderate challenge 45% 41% Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Little or no challenge 48% 43%
Expectations for Competing with Grocery Stores in 2014

More challenging 15% 24% Successful Loyalty Strategies Used by
Less challenging 22% 18% Limited-Service Operators in 2013
Remain about the same 63% 58%
Fast
Competing with Convenience Stores in 2013 Quickservice Casual
Significant challenge 9% 5% Focus on quality of service 30% 21%
Moderate challenge 42% 39% Add/expand rewards program 23% 23%
Little or no challenge 49% 55% Enhance food and menu quality 16% 17%
Expectations for Competing with Convenience Stores in Increase promotions and specials 11% 10%
2014 Train staff to improve service 5% 13%
More challenging 14% 20% Focus on direct customer interaction 5% 10%
Less challenging 18% 21% Expand social media presence 5% 6%
Increase community involvement 5% 6%
Keep prices low 7% 4%
Expand marketing efforts 7% 2%

Putting Out the Welcome Mat of their favorite items are on the menu. older consumers to say important factors in their
To attract customers in a competitive business Women are more likely than men to say they selection process are restaurants they haven’t
environment, restaurant operators need to know look for limited-service restaurants with healthy been to before and food they haven’t tried before.
what attributes are the most attractive to menu items (72 percent vs. 57 percent), locally Due to the importance of repeat business,
customers. When asked what factors are most sourced food (54 percent vs. 46 percent), and the NRA’s 2014 Restaurant Industry Forecast
important when it comes to choosing a limited- organic or environmentally friendly food (45 takes a detailed look at the attitudes, prefer-
service restaurant, the vast majority of consumers percent vs. 35 percent). ences and motivations of frequent restaurant
identify good service, good value, and that some Younger consumers are more likely than customers, to help restaurant operators attract
What Do Consumers Look For in a Limited-Service Restaurant?

Attributes customers list as reasons for choosing a limited-service restaurant
All 18 35 45 55 65 or
Good service 87% 87% 87% 89% 88% 86% 88% 81%
Good value 85% 83% 87% 86% 89% 86% 83% 79%
Some of their favorite items are on the menu 82% 80% 84% 82% 87% 82% 83% 78%
Convenience to their home or work place 72% 71% 74% 81% 75% 70% 68% 62%
Healthy menu items 65% 57% 72% 67% 61% 64% 66% 64%
Ease of parking at the restaurant 65% 62% 67% 57% 67% 67% 70% 68%
Family or child friendly 60% 57% 63% 64% 65% 58% 53% 56%
Décor or atmosphere 54% 53% 54% 54% 52% 55% 55% 53%
Locally sourced food 50% 46% 54% 53% 46% 49% 47% 51%
Restaurant they haven’t been to before 45% 45% 44% 54% 46% 39% 40% 37%
Organic or environmentally friendly food 41% 35% 45% 45% 34% 39% 43% 39%
Food they haven’t tried before 40% 43% 36% 52% 40% 35% 32% 29%
Technology options, such as smartphone apps,
ordering kiosks or wi-fi 21% 22% 21% 33% 22% 20% 15% 7%
What Do Frequent Customers Look For in a Limited-Service Restaurant?

Attributes frequent customers list as reasons for choosing a limited-service restaurant
Frequent
All Fullservice Quickservice Dinner
Adults Customers Customers Customers
Good service 87% 86% 92% 90%
Good value 85% 83% 90% 86%
Some of their favorite items are on the menu 82% 82% 87% 84%
Convenience to their home or work place 72% 77% 82% 77%
Healthy menu items 65% 62% 62% 59%
Ease of parking at the restaurant 65% 64% 65% 60%
Family or child friendly 60% 52% 59% 58%
Décor or atmosphere 54% 56% 57% 56%
Locally sourced food 50% 50% 44% 47%
Good Service
Restaurant they haven’t been to before 45% 43% 46% 45%
Organic or environmentally friendly food 41% 37% 37% 38%
and value are
Food they haven’t tried before 40% 42% 41% 42% the most important
Technology options, such as smartphone apps, factors for consumers
ordering kiosks or wi-fi 21% 23% 30% 27% when choosing a
limited-service
restaurant.

this important demographic in today’s restaurant, frequent restaurant customers are
challenging business environment. similar to the general public in that their top
Expanding the Core
Three categories of frequent restaurant attributes are service and value. However, they
Business
customers were created for this analysis: place a somewhat higher emphasis on conve-
Off-premises traffic is a key driver of • Frequent Fullservice Customers: These nience. Eighty-two percent of frequent quickser-
limited-service growth, and a majority of customers eat a meal at a sit-down restaurant vice customers and 77 percent of both frequent
operators say they are continuing to focus with waiter or waitress service more than once off-premises dinner customers and frequent
on growing this side of their business. a week, on average. fullservice customers say convenience to their
Three-quarters of fast casual operators and • Frequent Quickservice Customers: These home or work place is an important factor in
just over half of quickservice operators say customers purchase a meal or snack from a choosing a limited-service restaurant, compared
they plan to make additional efforts to quickservice restaurant or carry-out place more with 72 percent of the overall adult population.
expand the off-premises side of their than once a week, on average.
business in 2014. • Frequent Off-Premises Dinner Customers: Successful Marketing
These efforts will likely be well received These customers purchase their dinner meal from Strategies
by customers, as 55 percent of adults say a restaurant, carry-out or delivery place and eat it To expand their customer base, as well as
they would likely order delivery from a at home more than once a week, on average. generate repeat business, many limited-service
limited-service restaurant directly to their Each of these customer groups rely heavily operators are shifting their marketing efforts to
home or office. Younger consumers and on the restaurant industry in their daily lives. reach customers directly. Nearly three-quarters
frequent quickservice and off-premises As such, it is important for restaurant operators of fast casual operators and seven of 10
dinner customers are much more likely to to know how to reach these customers, what quickservice operators say they plan to invest
say they would utilize limited-service their tastes and preferences are, and what more in social media marketing in 2014. In
delivery directly to their home or office. motivates their restaurant decisions. addition, a majority of both fast casual and
When it comes to choosing a limited-service quickservice operators are planning to devote
Dialing for Food
Percent of adults who say they would
use delivery options by limited-service
restaurants
All Adults 55%

Operators Ramp Up Social Media Marketing
18 to 34 Years Old 71% Percent of limited-service operators planning to devote more or less of their
35 to 44 Years Old 66% resources to the following marketing methods in 2014
45 to 54 Years Old 59%
Quickservice Fast Casual
55 to 64 Years Old 37%
More Fewer More Fewer
65 Years or Older 26% Resources Resources Resources Resources
Frequent fullservice customers 57% Traditional marketing (such as direct mail

Frequent quickservice customers 70% or newspaper ads) 14% 18% 26% 34%
Frequent off-premises dinner Electronic marketing (such as email or
customers 68% text messages) 57% 0% 67% 2%
Social-media marketing (such as Facebook ads
Source: National Restaurant Association, National
or special offers via Twitter and Foursquare) 68% 2% 73% 2%
Household Survey, 2013
Younger Consumers are More Receptive to Social Media and Electronic Marketing
Percent of consumers who would likely be receptive to the following marketing methods by limited-service restaurants
Frequent
Notification of specials or events through

social-media like Facebook or Twitter 29% 43% 40% 29% 12% 9% 33% 43% 41%
Email notifications of daily specials 29% 38% 33% 33% 18% 14% 33% 40% 38%
Cell phone text message notifications of
daily specials 26% 37% 31% 28% 13% 10% 31% 38% 37%

more resources to email and text message marketing in 2014. Limited-Service Operators
In contrast, both quickservice and fast casual operators are planning to devote Expect Cost Crunch to Continue
fewer resources to traditional marketing, such as direct mail or newspaper ads.
Fast
NRA research shows that many consumers are receptive to these forms of Quickservice Casual
marketing, though it varies by age. Younger consumers are much more likely than
older adults to say they would be receptive to a limited-service restaurant Food Costs in 2013
communicating with them via Facebook, Twitter, email or text messages. Significant challenge 52% 38%
Frequent restaurant customers are also more likely than the overall population Moderate challenge 43% 59%
to say they would be receptive to social media and electronic marketing from Little or no challenge 4% 4%
limited-service restaurants. Expectations for Food Costs in 2014
More challenging 58% 58%
Addressing Cost Concerns Less challenging 12% 11%
In addition to sales challenges, limited-service operators continue to face cost Remain about the same 30% 31%
pressures across their operations. The vast majority of limited-service operators
said food costs, labor costs, and gas/energy/utility costs all posed significant or Labor Costs in 2013
moderate challenges for their business in 2013. Looking ahead, limited-service Significant challenge 64% 52%
operators expect these cost areas to continue to cause concerns in 2014. Moderate challenge 33% 43%
Challenges Lie Ahead Expectations for Labor Costs in 2014
Although business conditions for the limited-service segment are expected to More challenging 77% 73%
improve in 2014, operators do not expect smooth sailing. Among the top concerns Less challenging 3% 5%
is complying with health care reform, which is identified as the top anticipated Remain about the same 20% 21%
challenge in 2014 by 42 percent of quickservice operators.
Among fast casual operators, building and maintaining sales volume top the Gas/Energy/Utility Costs in 2013
list of business concerns for 2014, following closely by government, the economy, Significant challenge 37% 29%
and recruiting and retaining employees. Moderate challenge 58% 54%
Expectations for Gas/Energy/Utility Costs in 2014
Helping Customers Maintain Frequency More challenging 49% 47%

T he combination of elevated pent-up demand for restaurants and

constrained spending ability means consumers are often looking for ways
to maintain or increase their restaurant frequency. Restaurant operators can
help fill this need by cutting menu prices during times when the restaurant
isn’t as busy. Limited-Service Operators
About one-fifth of quickservice operators and one-tenth of fast casual Expect Legislative & Regulatory
operators say they currently offer off-peak dining at reduced prices. However,
a higher proportion of operators in both segments believe this will become Issues to Pose Challenges in 2014
more popular in the future. Top challenges expected by limited-service
NRA research also shows that customers would be receptive this option, operators in 2014
with more than seven of 10 adults saying they would consider dining out Fast
more often if menu prices were lower during off-peak times. Among frequent Quickservice Casual
quickservice and off-premises dinner customers, eight of 10 said they would
Health Care Reform 42% 9%
likely take advantage of these lower prices.
The Economy 17% 14%
Government 8% 16%
Frugal Flexibility
45%
Building & Maintaining Sales Volume 5% 18%
Recruiting & Retaining Employees 6% 14%
29%
Limited-service operators who
currently offer off-peak dining at 22% Food Costs 5% 9%
reduced prices Labor Costs 6% 5%
8%
Limited-service operators who Minimum Wage Increase 5% 4%
believe it will become more popular
in this segment in the future Quickservice Fast Casual Competition 0% 5%
Profitability 5% 0%

Consumers Ready & Willing
To Embrace Restaurant
Technology Options
“Consumers
said they most
would like to
see restaurants
add the
T
echnology is quickly becoming a part of American life, and more consumers are
following showing increasing interest in using technology at restaurants. NRA research shows
that a significant number of consumers are using such options or would be interested in
doing so if available at their favorite restaurants.
technology Technology can add convenience to the customer experience and help restaurant operations
be more productive and efficient. However, there are challenges to adding new customer-facing
technology, which leaves a gap between what consumers want and what restaurants currently
options: offer. Understanding how consumers prefer to interact with restaurants in the technology space
is crucial to helping operators strategically plan to close that gap.
While focusing on technology to enhance customer service and restaurant efficiency, it’s
loyalty important to remember that the human factor is still a vital aspect of the hospitality industry.
In fact, NRA research on industry trends in the year 2020 emphasizes that it will remain
programs,
important for restaurant operators to be high-touch in a high-tech environment, as consumers
will still expect personalized service.
ordering,
reservations, Consumers Consider Tech Options when Choosing
a Restaurant
entertainment
According to NRA research, nearly one-fifth of into their decisions when choosing a
consumers (18 percent) say technology options limited-service restaurant; 33 percent of
are an important feature that factors into their 18- to 34-year-olds, compared to 7 percent of
and payment.” decision when choosing a tableservice

restaurant. As with many technology-related
those 65-plus.
In addition, individuals with children
issues, younger consumers are more likely to under 18 in their household are more likely to
feel that way than consumers in older age say that technology options factor into their
groups: 24 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds say restaurant choices; 20 percent say they factor
they consider a restaurant’s technology options it into their tableservice restaurant selection,
when selecting where to go, compared to only and 25 percent for their limited-service
11 percent of individuals 65 and over. choices.
Similarly, more than one-fifth of consum-
ers (21 percent) say technology options factor

Consumers Rely on Online Information
While the Internet is not the latest technology innovation, consumers rely on it to find information
63% of consumers say they
about restaurant menus and concepts. Here too, younger consumers and individuals with children
recently used restaurant-related
in their household show a stronger reliance on online resources and activities.
technology options.
Consumers Satisfy Restaurant Cravings Online
Consumers who have used the Internet for the following restaurant-related activities
Children
All Age Age Age Age Age under 18 in
adults 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ household
Visit a restaurant’s website 59% 72% 71% 60% 49% 30% 69%
View a restaurant’s menu 58% 72% 67% 62% 47% 29% 68%
Find information about a restaurant they haven’t been
to before 55% 70% 64% 58% 46% 26% 63%
Place an order for takeout or delivery 43% 63% 52% 39% 24% 18% 53%
Search for nutrition information about restaurant food 34% 48% 38% 29% 26% 17% 39%
Make a reservation 33% 43% 36% 31% 29% 15% 39%
Post or read restaurant reviews on consumer-driven
sites like Yelp 27% 46% 28% 20% 19% 9% 33%
View a restaurant’s social media pages, like Facebook,
YouTube and Pinterest 22% 35% 24% 19% 14% 6% 27%
Purchase merchandise from a restaurant’s website 15% 20% 16% 15% 12% 7% 17%
Follow restaurants on Twitter 5% 8% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5%

Tech-Savvy Millennials Drive Consumers Want a Side of

Demand for Smartphone Options Technology with Their Meals
Research from the NRA shows that a majority of consumers (63
Percentage of adults who have recently used a smartphone
percent) say they recently used restaurant-related technology options. or tablet for restaurant-related activities*
The most common uses: using a smartphone or tablet to find restaurant 46
locations and directions, ordering takeout/delivery, and looking up
nutrition information. In addition, consumers said they most would
23
like to see restaurants add the following technology options: loyalty 19
13 13
programs, ordering, reservations, entertainment and payment. 6
Following wider societal trends, younger consumers are more likely

Look up Order takeout Look up Make a Use rewards Pay for
to use a smartphone or tablet for restaurant-related activities, but a locations and or delivery nutrition reservation or special your meal
directions information deals
significant number of older adults have used or are willing to use those
Source: National Restaurant Association, Technology Innovations Consumer Survey, 2013
options.
*Survey conducted Oct. 3-6, 2013, asking for usage in the past month
Smart(phone) Restaurant Activities

Consumers who say they would be likely to use a smartphone or tablet for restaurant-related activities
Children
Look up locations or directions 67% 88% 78% 63% 60% 31% 80%
Order takeout or delivery 52% 74% 62% 45% 39% 20% 67%
Use rewards or special deals 50% 70% 58% 47% 38% 21% 65%
Make a reservation 46% 59% 60% 38% 40% 22% 56%
Look up nutrition information 42% 55% 46% 38% 35% 23% 54%
Pay for your meal 24% 43% 22% 16% 16% 9% 32%
Source: National Restaurant Association, Technology Innovations Consumer Survey, 2013

In-Store Technology is on
Consumers’ Radar
While service and hospitality remain crucial features of dining out,
iPad/tablet men
menus
nus aand
nd restaurant guests also are interested in controlling certain aspects of their
kiosks
touch-screen kiosks dining experience by self-activated systems for ordering and payment.
Again, younger adults and parents are trending stronger in this aspect.
fe
ered
are currently offered Restaurant operators are starting to incorporate more in-store technol-
tage
by a small percentage ogy to speed up service and manage customer flow, but it isn’t yet com-
monplace to encounter these technologies when dining out. According to
of restaurants, butt NRA research, some tools — such as smartphone apps, online ordering,
figure to become more re video menu boards, and customer wi-fi — are by far the most common.
Devices such as tableside ordering and payment systems, iPad/tablet
popular in the future. menus, and touch-screen kiosks are currently offered by only a small
percentage of restaurants.
However, operators across segments believe that a wider range of
technology options will become more popular in the future. In the next
VIEW PLACE
PAY several years, consumers can expect to see more restaurants providing their
MENU ORDER
guests the option to leverage technology both during in-store visits and for
off-premise occasions.
Using Technology to Help Yourself

Consumers who say they would be likely to use the following technology options in restaurants
Children
Electronic payment system at the table 47% 65% 52% 46% 32% 23% 55%
Electronic ordering system at the table 40% 61% 49% 34% 24% 15% 52%
Menus on iPad/Tablets 37% 57% 45% 34% 19% 15% 48%
Self-service, touch-screen kiosk for ordering 43% 62% 54% 42% 27% 18% 54%
More Technology Options on the Horizon

Restaurant operators who believe these technology options will become more popular within their segments in the future
dining dining dining Quickservice Casual
Online ordering 57% 63% 48% 77% 89%

Ordering via smartphone app 45% 49% 30% 73% 88%
Electronic ordering at the table 28% 48% 30% N/A N/A
Electronic payment at the table 48% 65% 59% N/A N/A
Menu on iPad/tablet at the table 36% 54% 50% N/A N/A
Wine/beer/cocktail list on iPad/tablet at the table 31% 53% 56% N/A N/A
Wi-fi for customers 85% 93% 87% 87% 77%
Mobile/wireless payment options 43% 58% 54% 75% 77%
Nutrition information online or via
smartphone/tablet app 46% 57% 48% 80% 80%
Self-service, touch-screen ordering terminals N/A N/A N/A 47% 57%
Video menu boards N/A N/A N/A 78% 68%

Frequent Restaurant Customers Are Frequently Online
Frequent customers who have used the Internet for the following activities
Frequent
Frequent Frequent off-premises
Frequent Customers Are Prime All tableservice quickservice dinner
Technology Users adults customers customers customers
Frequent customers are a key audience for restau- Visit a restaurant’s website 59% 68% 70% 65%
rant operators, as their usage of restaurant services is View a restaurant’s menu 58% 70% 61% 64%
higher than the general consumer population. NRA Find information about a restaurant
research breaks down three distinct types of they haven’t been to before 55% 66% 66% 64%
frequent customers: Place an order for takeout or delivery 43% 50% 59% 59%
• Frequent tableservice customers. On average, Search for nutrition information
these customers eat a meal at a sit-down restaurant about restaurant food 34% 41% 42% 39%
Make a reservation 33% 42% 44% 45%
with waiter or waitress service more than once a week.
Post or read restaurant reviews on
• Frequent quickservice customers. On average,
consumer-driven sites like Yelp 27% 35% 35% 33%
these customers purchase a meal or snack from a
View a restaurant’s social media pages,
quickservice restaurant or carry-out place more than like Facebook, YouTube and Pinterest 22% 31% 32% 32%
once a week. Follow restaurants on Twitter 5% 3% 6% 4%
• Frequent off-premise dinner customers. On Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2013
average, these customers purchase their dinner meal
from a restaurant, carry-out or delivery place and
eat it at home more than once a week. More Restaurant Visits, More Technology Use
These restaurant guests also are more likely to use Frequent customers who say they would be likely to use the following technology
technology, and they consider those options options in restaurants
important when choosing restaurants. Compared to Frequent
the 18 percent of all consumers, 20 percent of Frequent Frequent off-premises
frequent tableservice customers, 22 percent of All tableservice quickservice dinner
frequent quickservice customers, and 19 percent of adults customers customers customers
frequent off-premises dinner customers say technol- Electronic payment at the table 47% 53% 60% 58%
ogy options are an important factor when choosing a Electronic ordering at the table 40% 44% 54% 55%
tableservice restaurant. This is more pronounced in Menus on iPad/Tablets 37% 42% 48% 47%
the selection process for limited-service restaurants, Self-service, touch-screen kiosk 43% 51% 56% 59%
with 23 percent of frequent tableservice customers, 30 Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2013
percent of frequent quickservice customers, and 27
percent of frequent off-premises dinner customers
saying technology is an important feature (compared Restaurants Are Investing in Technology
to 21 percent of all consumers). Restaurant operators who say they will devote more resources to technology in 2014
Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast

Operators Devoting More dining dining dining service casual
Resources to Technology
Customer-facing technology 41% 50% 51% 43% 57%
As restaurant operators navigate their strategic
Front-of-the-house technology 28% 35% 23% 39% 47%
options for incorporating more technology into
Back-of-the-house technology 24% 30% 19% 33% 38%
their operations, several challenges can make them
cautious to take the plunge into the technology pool.
According to NRA research, operators across
segments plan to allocate a larger proportion of their Cost Is Top Challenge to Technology Expansion
budget and other resources to technology in 2014, Restaurant operators who consider the following to be challenges to
mainly in the customer-facing category. The fast adding more customer-facing technology
casual restaurant segment is leading the way: it has
the highest percentage of operators who say they
dining dining dining service casual
will increase their tech budgets in the coming year
for both front- and back-of-the-house. Cost of implementation 79% 74% 73% 63% 66%
Restaurant operators find the cost of implemen- Per transaction/usage cost 43% 39% 34% 44% 28%
Lack of infrastructure to
tation to be the highest barrier to adding more
support new systems 38% 37% 30% 39% 49%
technology options, with nearly three-quarters
Service and repair 38% 37% 34% 40% 28%
citing it as the top challenge. Per-transaction/usage
Customer acceptance 33% 37% 37% 31% 32%
costs and lack of infrastructure to support new Staff training 39% 32% 36% 40% 25%
systems also are rated as top challenges.

Restaurants Are Getting Social 99 p
Over the past few years, social media has made remarkable headway as a marketing tool, as well as a customer cent er
of fin
service feature among restaurants. In 2014, it’s more common than not for restaurants across segments to use ed
oper ining
platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to promote their business, engage and inspire their communities, and curre ators
nt
Face ly use
communicate with guests. book
Restaurants are Ramping Restaurants are Socially Active

Up their Tweets Percentage of restaurant operators who are currently active on social media
67%
Percentage of restaurant operators who 58% 59%
52% 49%
plan to be more active on social media 36% 35%
40%
31%
in 2014 19% 16%
13% 11%
6% 6%
Family
Dining 71%
Very active Somewhat active Not active
Family dining Casual dining Fine dining Quickservice Fast Casual

Casual
Dining 75% Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Fine
Dining 81%
Facebook Is King of Restaurant Social Universe
Restaurant operators who currently use the following social media channels
Quickservice 79%
dining dining dining service casual
Fast Facebook 97% 96% 99% 90% 93%
Casual 78%
Twitter 45% 50% 53% 49% 78%
Blog on own website, or
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends platform like Tumblr 11% 19% 26% 18% 20%
Survey, 2013
Online review sites, like Yelp 56% 62% 71% 39% 65%
Video-sharing sites, like
Social Media Marketing

YouTube or Vine 15% 22% 22% 28% 35%
Image-sharing sites, like
Continues to Grow Pinterest or Instagram 19% 28% 26% 25% 44%
Percentage of restaurant operators who
believe social media will become a more
important marketing technique in the
future Social Media is Here to Stay
Percentage of restaurant operators who say they are very likely to use the
Family
Dining 90% following social media tools in the future
91
87 85
83
Casual
Dining 98% 73
76
61 61 63
59
57 57
51 51 53 54 51
Fine 47 49
46
Dining 95% 43 42
45
41
44 44
36 37 37 38 36 37 36
35
32
27 28
25 24
17
Quickservice 99%
Family dining Casual dining Fine dining Quickservice Fast Casual

Fast
Casual 92%
Facebook Twitter Smartphone apps Text messaging Blog/Tumblr
Online review site YouTube/Vine Instagram/Pinterest
Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends
Survey, 2013 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013

Successful industry executives depend on the
National Restaurant Association
Discipline-specific study groups bring together Fast Casual Industry Marketing Executives
professionals who share vital areas of expertise Council (MEG)
and years of experience. Each group’s free, focused Pizzeria Industry Council Nutrition
listserv community links executives with their peers
Financial Officers & Tax Quality Assurance
and solutions via e-mail. Meetings provide forums
Executives
for networking, sharing and learning best practices, Risk & Safety Managers
and opportunities for professional development. Human Resources
Supply Chain Management
Information Technology
Visit Restaurant.org/Events-Networking iMIS Users Conference
Internal Audit
Help make the

healthful choice,
the easy choice.
Learn more about how to
get involved in the Kids
LiveWell initiative.
Visit Restaurant.org/
KidsLiveWell for more
information.
Sophisticated Consumers
Have High Expectations for
Dining-Out Experiences
“93 percent of
restaurant
operators say
they have
noticed their
T
oday’s consumers are more knowledgeable about food and drinks than ever before.
They are increasingly interested in what is on their plates, where it comes from and how
it was prepared. This trend isn’t lost on restaurant operators: 93 percent say they have
customers noticed their customers are growing more sophisticated regarding food and restaurants.
On the consumer side, about three-quarters (76 percent) say that going out to a restaurant
with family and friends is a better use of their leisure time than cooking and cleaning up, and
are growing nearly seven of 10 (67 percent) say that their favorite restaurant foods provide flavor and taste
sensations that can’t easily be duplicated at home.
To keep up with the evolution of consumer palates, restaurant operators continually add
more new food and beverage items to their menus. The vast majority of operators across segments
added new food and beverage items to their menus in 2013 and plan to do so again in 2014.
sophisticated Menu Renewal

regarding
Restaurant operators who added or plan to add new menu items
dining dining dining Quickservice casual
food and New food item in 2013

New non-alcoholic beverage
93% 93% 99% 88% 89%
restaurants.”
item 2013 37% 52% 49% 62% 45%
New alcoholic beverage item in
2013 (of those serving alcohol) 83% 87% 91% 25% 55%
New food item in 2014 95% 96% 99% 85% 89%
New non-alcoholic beverage
item in 2014 38% 51% 52% 63% 53%
New alcoholic beverage item in
2014 (of those serving alcohol) 85% 88% 94% 21% 60%
Nearly seven of 10
consumers say their favorite
restaurant foods provide flavor and
taste sensations that can’t easily be
duplicated at home

Trends from the Kitchen
The National Restaurant Association 18 percent said health and nutrition.
teamed up with the American Culinary Trends that gained the most
TOP 25 Tableservice Menu
Federation for the ninth straight year to momentum in this year’s chef survey
Trends FOR 2014 learn what professional chefs expect include nose-to-tail/root-to-stalk
1 Locally sourced meat and seafood menu trends to be, as presented in the cooking, pickling, ramen, dark greens
“What’s Hot in 2014” culinary forecast. and Southeast Asian cuisine. On the flip-
2 Locally grown produce
The survey found that local sourcing, side, Greek yogurt, sweet potato fries,
3 Environmental sustainability environmental sustainability and new cuts of meat, grass-fed beef and
4 Healthful kids’ meals children’s nutrition remain the top organic coffee lost the most ground as
trends, underscoring that these are true hot trends for 2014.
5 Gluten-free cuisine
trends rather than temporary fads. In addition, the chefs rated foam/
6 Hyper-local sourcing (e.g. restaurant In fact, sourcing, sustainability and froth, bacon-flavored chocolate, fish
gardens) nutrition have stayed in the top 20 offal, gazpacho, fun-shapes children’s
7 Children’s nutrition trends for the past five years. When items, mini-burgers, barnacles, flowers,
asked which trend likely would be a top dust and molecular gastronomy as the
8 Non-wheat noodles/pasta (e.g. quinoa,
trend 10 years from now, 38 percent of highest in the yesterday’s news category,
rice, buckwheat)
the chefs said environmental sustainabil- indicating that these items are waning
9 Sustainable seafood ity, 22 percent said local sourcing, and trends.
10 Farm/estate-branded items
11 Nose-to-tail/root-to-stalk cooking
(e.g. reduce food waste by using entire
animal/plant) Trends from the Counter
12 Whole grain items in kids’ meals Limited-service restaurant operators are reporting similar overall trends as the chefs
do in What’s Hot in 2014, but with a few differences. While local sourcing and kids’
13 Health/nutrition
nutrition are in the top trends on both lists, spicy items, “build your own” items, and
14 New cuts of meat (e.g. Denver steak, pretzel bread are unique leading trends in this segment. Gluten-free items again
pork flat iron, tri-tip) ranked as the No. 1 trend on limited-service menus.
15 Ancient grains (e.g. kamut, spelt, When it comes to items that limited-service operators no longer consider hot
amaranth) trends, energy drinks, doughnuts, breakfast wraps, paninis, and wraps top the
16 Ethnic-inspired breakfast items “yesterday’s news” list.
(e.g. Asian-flavored syrups, Chorizo
scrambled eggs, coconut milk pancakes)
Top 25 Limited-Service Menu Trends for 2014
17 Grazing (e.g. small-plate sharing/
snacking instead of traditional meals) 1 Gluten-free items 15 Sustainable seafood
18 Non-traditional fish (e.g. branzino, 2 Healthful kids’ meals 16 Artisan/house-made items
Arctic char, barramundi) 3 Spicy items 17 Grain-based salads (quinoa,
19 Fruit/vegetable children’s side items 4 Fruit/vegetable sides in kids’ meals couscous, etc.)
5 Locally sourced produce 18 Lower-sodium items

20 Half-portions/smaller portions for a
smaller price 6 Locally sourced meat or seafood 19 Snack-sized items
21 Hybrid desserts (e.g. cronut, townie, ice 7 “Build your own” items 20 Lower-fat items
cream cupcake) 21 Egg white omelets/sandwiches
8 Low-fat/non-fat milk or 100%
22 Non-wheat flour (e.g. peanut, millet, juice options in kids’ meals 22 Whole-grain items
barley, rice) 9 Pretzels/pretzel bread 23 Asian/Asian fusion cuisine
23 Simplicity/back to basics 10 Flatbreads 24 Flavored/enhanced water
24 Quinoa 11 Specialty coffee 25 Smoothies
25 Unusual/uncommon herbs (e.g. chervil, 12 Ethnic fusion cuisine
lovage, lemon balm, papalo) 13 Organic items
14 Lower-calorie items
Source: National Restaurant Association, What’s Hot in 2014
chef survey

Just Because It’s Not
Trendy Doesn’t Mean
It’s Not Popular
While keeping an eye on the latest
food trends is important, many
consumers also are drawn to their
favorite menu items — trendy or
not — when choosing where to dine.
Incorporating tried-and-true dishes
will make for a well-rounded menu that
can satisfy all types of eaters, from the
adventurous to the picky. These items also can be
adjusted to fit a variety of menu types and themes by experiment-
ing with flavor profiles and specialty ingredients.
The NRA surveyed chefs and limited-service restaurant
Trends from the Bar operators on which menu items were considered perennial
favorites. Popular items in both segments include Italian cuisine
The What’s Hot in 2014 chef survey also examined the hottest and comfort food, although the rest of the top 20 lists differ to
alcohol trends for the coming year. The top trends in beverage reflect the menu composition in each segment.
alcohol tend to follow the overall themes of food trends. They focus
on local sourcing, including the most local of all − onsite produc-
tion. However, the playfulness of mixology also is evident in the top Top 20 Perennial Favorites
10 trends, showing off edible cocktails and food-cocktail pairings.
Trends that are cooling off, according to the chefs, include Tableservice Menus Limited-Service Menus
shrubs, sour beer, vaporized cocktails, cocktails on tap, and
1 Italian cuisine 1 Soft drinks
non-traditional flavored liquor (such as bacon or marshmallow);
those items topped the “yesterday’s news” list. 2 Fried chicken 2 Poultry items
3 Barbeque 3 Milk
4 Frying 4 French fires
TOP 10 Alcohol Trends FOR 2014 5 Eggs Benedict 5 Chicken sandwiches
6 Grilling 6 Pizza
Hot Trends Perennial Favorites 7 Oatmeal 7 Milkshakes

8 French toast 8 Side salads
1 Micro-distilled/artisan 1 Lagers
spirits 9 Comfort foods 9 Hamburgers/
2 Tequila/premium
(e.g. chicken pot pie, cheeseburgers
2 Locally produced beer/ tequila
meatloaf) 10 Chicken strips/nuggets
wine/spirits 3 IPAs (India Pale Ale)
10 Fruit desserts (e.g. 11 Beef items
3 Culinary cocktails 4 Sake/mirin cobbler, crisp, tart, pie)
(e.g. savory, fresh 12 Comfort food
ingredients) 5 Seasonal beer 11 Mexican cuisine
13 Iced tea
4 Onsite barrel-aged 6 Signature cocktails 12 Zucchini
14 Ice cream
drinks 7 Wine flights/samplers 13 Short ribs
15 Bottled water
5 Regional signature 8 Craft beer/microbrew 14 Steaming
cocktails 16 Fruit juice
9 House-brewed beer 15 Milkshakes/malts
6 “New Make” whiskey 17 Pasta/Italian items
10 Beer flights/samplers 16 Waffles
7 Gluten-free beer 18 Soups
17 Braising
8 Food-liquor/cocktail 19 Onion rings
18 Cauliflower
pairings 20 Lemonade/flavored
19 French cuisine lemonade
9 Edible cocktails
20 Chicken wings
10 Food-beer pairings
Sources: National Restaurant Association, What’s Hot in 2014 chef survey,

Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Source: National Restaurant Association,
What’s Hot in 2014 chef survey

2014 Top Trends by Category
Appetizers Dessert Produce Preparation

1 House-cured meats/ 1 Hybrid desserts (e.g. 1 Locally grown produce Methods
charcuterie cronut, townie, ice cream 2 Unusual/uncommon 1 Pickling
2 Vegetarian appetizers cupcake) herbs (e.g. chervil, lovage, 2 Fermenting
3 Ethnic/street food- 2 Savory desserts lemon balm, papalo)
3 Smoking
inspired appetizers 3 House-made/artisan ice 3 Dark greens (e.g. kale,
(e.g. tempura, taquitos, cream mustard greens, collards) 4 Sous vide
kabobs) 4 Bite-size/mini-desserts 4 Organic produce 5 Liquid nitrogen chilling/
4 Ethnic dips (e.g. hummus, freezing
5 Deconstructed classic 5 Heirloom apples
tabbouleh, baba ganoush, desserts
tzatziki) Culinary Themes
5 Amuse-bouche/bite size Ethnic Cuisines
hors d’oeuvre Breakfast/Brunch and Flavors 1 Environmental
sustainability
1 Ethnic-inspired breakfast 1 Peruvian cuisine 2 Gluten-free cuisine
Starches/Side Items items (e.g. Chorizo
2 Korean cuisine
scrambled eggs, coconut 3 Hyper-local sourcing
1 Non-wheat noodles/ milk pancakes) 3 Southeast Asian cuisine (e.g. restaurant gardens)
pasta (e.g. quinoa, rice, 2 Traditional ethnic (e.g. Thai, Vietnamese, 4 Children’s nutrition
buckwheat) breakfast items (e.g. Malaysian)
5 Nose-to-tail/root-to stalk
2 Quinoa huevos rancheros, 4 Regional ethnic cuisine cooking (e.g. reduce food
3 Black/forbidden rice shakshuka, ashta) 5 Ethnic fusion cuisine waste by using entire
4 Red rice 3 Fresh fruit breakfast items animal/plant)
5 Pickled vegetables 4 Egg white omelets/ Other Food Items/

sandwiches
Ingredients Non-Alcoholic
Main Dishes/
5 Yogurt parfait/Greek
yogurt parfait
Beverages
1 Farm/estate-branded
Center of the Plate items 1 House-made soft drinks/
1 Locally sourced meats Kids’ meals 2 Ancient grains (e.g. soda/pop
and seafood kamut, spelt, amaranth) 2 Gourmet lemonade

1 Healthful kids’ meals (e.g. house-made, freshly
2 Sustainable seafood 3 Non-wheat flour (e.g.
2 Whole-grain items in kids’ peanut, millet, barley, rice) muddled)
3 New cuts of meat (e.g. meals
4 Natural sweeteners 3 Coconut water
Denver steak, pork flat
3 Fruit/vegetable children’s (e.g. agave, honey, 4 Specialty iced tea
iron, tri-tip)
side items concentrated fruit juice, (e.g. Thai-style, Southern/
4 Non-traditional fish
4 Ethnic-inspired children’s maple syrup) sweet, flavored)
(e.g. branzino, Arctic char,
dishes 5 Artisan/specialty bacon 5 Dairy-free milk (e.g. soy,
barramundi)
5 Oven-baked items in kids’ rice, almond)
5 Half-portions/smaller
meals (e.g. baked chicken
portions for a smaller
prize or a smaller price fingers, oven-baked fries)
Watch a video of What’s Hot in 2014

Source: National Restaurant Association, What’s Hot in 2014 chef survey and more at Restaurant.org/FoodTrends.

Sourcing Close to Home
L ocal sourcing doesn’t show up only as a top
menu trend for chefs and restaurant opera-
tors, but also among consumer preferences. NRA
Consumers Go Local
Percent of restaurant operators who say
their customers are more interested in locally
research shows that 64 percent of adults say they sourced items than they were two years ago
are more likely to visit a restaurant that offers 91%
locally produced food items. 72% 73% 70%
From a restaurateur’s perspective, 72 percent
50%
say they have noticed that their guests are more
interested in locally sourced items now compared
to two years ago. Tableservice operators are
noticing a stronger interest in local sourcing Family Casual Fine Quickservice Fast
dining dining dining casual
among their guests than quickservice operators.
To satisfy this consumer demand, many
restaurants offer locally sourced items, including
onsite gardens. While much more common in fine From Farm to Restaurant Kitchen
dining than in any other segment, a substantial Restaurant operators who offer the following items on their menus
number of other fullservice restaurants follow suit. Family Casual Fine Fast
dining dining dining Quickservice casual
Percent of adults that Locally sourced produce 51% 63% 93% 28% 50%
64
say they are more Locally sourced meat or seafood 41% 48% 80% 15% 27%
likely to visit a restau- Food items from an on-site
rant that offers locally garden 9% 8% 30% N/A N/A
produced items. Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2013
Eco-Fare on the Rise Restaurant Retail

Sustainability is a long-term trend in the back-of-the-house, where Restaurants have been expanding
restaurants have ramped up efforts in energy and water conservation in their retail offerings over the past
their kitchens and offices. This trend also is evident in the dining room, several years as a way to grow
with consumer interest in environmentally friendly fare growing stronger. business and reach a wider
NRA research shows that 58 percent of consumers say they are likely consumer base. About one-quarter of
to make a restaurant choice based on its eco-friendly practices. Fifty-five restaurants currently offer packaged food
percent say they are more likely to pick a restaurant that offers menu items for retail sale in their operations or grocery stores, and
items that were grown or raised in an organic or environmentally roughly half say they think such products will become more
friendly way. popular within their segment in the future.
A majority of restaurant operators across all segments say their
guests are increasingly interested in environmentally sustainable menu Getting into the Retail Business
items. The trend is strongest in the fine dining and fast casual segments. Percent of restaurant operators who offer packaged
food items
62%
Sustainability Family dining 73%

52%
49%
43%
Gains Popularity Casual dining 72% 27% 29%

37%
22%
Percent of restau- 20%
rant operators who Fine dining 82% 11%
say their customers

are more interested Quickservice 68% Family dining Casual dining Fine dining Quickservice Fast Casual
in eco-friendly food
than they were two Fast Casual 81% Currently offer packaged food items for retail sale in the restaurant
or a grocery store
years ago
Believe packaged food items will become more popular

Healthy Choices on the Menu
Health and nutrition continue to be top of mind likely to visit a restaurant with healthy menu of 10 say they have items identified as healthful/
for consumers when dining out. According to options, as well as to have noticed more such nutritious on their menus, and three-quarters
NRA research, more than seven of 10 consumers options over the past two years. offer similar options on their children’s menus.
say they are more likely to visit a restaurant that A strong majority of restaurant operators In addition, 59 percent of chefs in the NRA’s
offers healthful options, and more than eight of across all segments (84 percent) say their What’s Hot in 2014 survey say they always make
10 agree that restaurants offer more healthful customers are paying more attention to efforts to adjust recipes to be more healthful, and
choices now compared to two years ago. Women nutrition, spurring them to diversify such 33 percent say they try to make dishes more
are more likely than men to say they are more options on their menus. Overall, more than six healthful, but that not all recipes are easily adjusted.
Consumer Interest in Nutrition Healthful Options on Majority of Menus

Percent of restaurant operators who say their customers Percent of restaurant operators who offer the following on
pay more attention to the nutritional content of their food their menus
than they did two years ago 75% 78% 81%
73%
88% 66% 63% 63% 66% 64%
87%
54%
82% 82% 82%
Family dining Casual dining Fine dining Quickservice Fast casual
Menu items identified as nutritious

Family dining Casual dining Fine dining Quickservice Fast casual Kids’ menu items identified as nutritious
Nutrition Makes a Difference

Consumers take notice of healthful menu options
All 18 35 45 55 65 or
More healthy options available compared to two years ago 81% 79% 84% 82% 85% 84% 82% 74%
More likely to visit a restaurant that offers healthy options 72% 67% 76% 73% 71% 76% 67% 69%
Cuisine on Wheels Lunch on the Road

F
79%
ood trucks continue to be a popular addition to the culinary scene in many 67%
76%
71%
59%
communities. According to NRA research, two of five consumers say they 48% 49%
45% 41%
40%
have purchased items from a food truck, and nearly seven of 10 say they would be 33%
22%
interested in visiting a food truck if their favorite restaurant offered one.
Food truck patronage is more common in the Northeast (49 percent) and
West (48 percent), compared with consumers from the South (35 percent) and All adults Age 18-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65+
Midwest (34 percent). It is also more common among younger consumers, as is Would patronize a food truck if their favorite restaurant offered it
consumers’ interest in visiting food trucks if their favorite restaurant offered one. Have purchased food from a truck
While most food trucks aren’t extensions of brick-and-mortar restaurant Source: National Restaurant Association,
National Household Survey, 2013
operations, a small percentage of restaurant operators currently operate a
truck as part of their business. In addition, NRA research found that up to
one-fifth will consider starting one in the next year or two, with limited- 49% of quickservice operators
service operators more likely to say so than fullservice operators. Operators say they believe food trucks will
in different segments also have differing opinions about whether food trucks
become more popular within
will become more popular within their segments in the future.
their segment in the future.

METHODOLOGY
Sales Data Sales Data for Previous Years

Getting final estimates for restaurant-industry sales in previous
The National Restaurant Association’s 2014 Restaurant Industry
years is an ongoing process. The National Restaurant Associa-
Forecast report projects nominal and real growth rates for all
tion’s Restaurant TrendMapper offers updated sales estimates as
sectors of the restaurant industry. Real growth is calculated
they become available. Subscribe at Restaurant.org/Trendmapper.
separately for each market segment.
To calculate real sales growth at eating-and-drinking places, State and Regional Forecast
the projected increase in menu prices (including projected price
State restaurant-sales data is arranged according to the nine
increases for alcoholic beverages served) is subtracted from the
U.S. Census Bureau regions. Included for each state are revised
percent increase in sales.
restaurant-sales data for 2013, projected 2014 restaurant-sales
For other industry sectors where food costs are the biggest figures and percent-change calculations for population,
determinant of expenses — such as colleges and universities — a employment and disposable personal income.
modification of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for food (which
Much of the historical economic data in this report are based
measures changes in wholesale food prices) is used to calculate
on information obtained from such sources as the Bureau of
the sector’s real growth.
Economic Analysis, which is part of the U.S. Department of
Modifications to the PPI for food are based on historical Commerce, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is part of
patterns for each industry sector. The food-cost component the U.S. Department of Labor.
constitutes the base percent increase, which is adjusted to
reflect population changes and other pertinent factors, such as A Few Reminders
labor and overhead costs.
• Adjustments were made to arrive at a predetermined U.S.
To arrive at 2014 real sales figures for the total restaurant total.
industry, as well as for the Commercial and Noncommercial
• Sales figures for each state are subject to a larger margin of
Restaurant Services groups, revised 2013 sales were multiplied
error than the national projections.
by the respective 2013 real growth factors. The real sales figures
for each of the industry sectors were added and compared with • Actual sales figures represent an overall allocation of total
2013 sales to obtain real growth for the industry overall and the sales in the United States. Although percent changes are
industry’s two major segments. subject to more variation, they have been shown here as a
convenience to readers.
The restaurant sales projections in this report were prepared
in consultation with the research firm Malcolm M. Knapp Inc. • “Restaurant sales” includes sales in foodservice operations
with payrolls that fall under the North American Industry
Forecast Updates Classification System definition of Food Services and Drinking
Places (NAICS Code 722). Sales totals also cover managed
The National Restaurant Association’s projections for 2014
services (contract foodservice).
industry sales are based on the best data available in December
2013. If the outlook for general conditions or the food situation
changes significantly in 2014, those projections will require
adjustment. The latest developments are posted at Restaurant.org/
Research. In addition, the performance of individual companies
or sales in local market areas may differ substantially from the
U.S. outlook.
Surveys
Restaurant Trends Survey: The National Restaurant Association conducted an online survey of 520 restaurant operators nation-
wide across industry segments in November-December 2013, asking a range of questions about their business and operating
environment.
National Household Survey: The National Restaurant Association commissioned ORC International to conduct a telephone survey
of 1,019 American adults December 5-8, 2013, asking a variety of questions about consumers’ interaction with restaurants.
Technology Innovations Consumer Survey: The National Restaurant Association commissioned ORC International to survey
1,000 adults October 3-6, 2013, specifically about their usage of technology options in restaurants.
The Smartest Business Decisions
are Based on the Best Information
The NRA’s research and publications can help restaurant operators build customer loyalty, rewarding careers and
financial success. And don’t forget, NRA membership includes member-exclusive pricing on all publications!
Visit Restaurant.org/Research for more information.
RESTAURANT
OPERATIONS
OPERATIONS
RESTAURANT
Report
REPORT 2013
ion
2013 – 2014 edit
– 2014 Edition
National Restaur
h
nt industry researc
More restaura e at
tools availabl
and business
ant Association
/Research.
Restaurant.org
ant Association
National Restaur
Knowledge Center
Research and
NW
2055 L Street,
• Deloitte
Suite 700
DC 20036
Washington,
202-33 1-5900
Phone:
restaurant.org
Email: askus@
Restaurant Industry 2020: The Uniform System of Restaurant Operations

A Snapshot of the Future Accounts for Restaurants, Report, 2013-2014 Edition
A futuristic study of restaurant industry
8th Edition A tool for restaurateurs to see how their
trends, offering a window to future A tool for single-unit and small multi-unit business compares with those of a similar
operating trends and conditions. Explores operators to manage ongoing operations profile. The report helps operators
the evolution of consumer, workforce, and and maximize the usefulness of their sharpen financial performances by
operating trends to help restaurant financial information. detecting potential problems, determining
operators plan strategically for the future. how to cut costs, and becoming more
Print publication.
PDF instant download. efficient.
Order at Restaurant.org/Store
Order at Restaurant.org/Store Print publication.
Order at Restaurant.org/Store
Free Online Restaurant Performance Index

Released on the last business day of each month, the RPI reports on the health of and outlook for
the restaurant industry.
Restaurant.org/RPI
Free Online Economist’s Notebook

Regular commentary from the NRA’s chief economist that translates statistics into trends.
Restaurant.org/EconomistsNotebook

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2014

...and a NEW CONNECTION

Beyond that is a mix of serendipitous happenings and lucrative

MAY 17-20, 2014

REGISTER TODAY TO SAVE UP TO 50% at

Shared Vision of the National Restaurant Association, National Restaurant Association

NRA MISSION NRAEF MISSION

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 1

Restaurant Industry 2014 Restaurant Industry 2014

This report was prepared

Workforce Outlook & Trends........................................................................................................................ 17 Tim Smith

Food & Menu Trends........................................................................................................................................ 43

2055 L Street, NW,

2 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

44 Years of Restaurant Industry* Sales

6.9% 6.1% 6.2%

-0.2% -0.1% -0.2%

Current dollar growth Real (inflation-adjusted) growth

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 3

Consumers are relatively

Not surprisingly, this negativity is directly impact-

percent had not cut back at all.

4 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 5

Bars and taverns 19,401,396 19,964,037 2.9% 0.4% 6 Also referred to as

6 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

Adding It All Up: $683.4 billion Restaurant Industry’s

Eating Places*: $455.9 billion

Lodging Places: $34.8 billion

Noncommercial Restaurant Services $56.6 billion

*Eating places include tableservice restaurants

Restaurant-Industry Sales over Five Years 2010-2014

Source: National Restaurant Association *Projected

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 7

2014 State and

8 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

Total Real Disposable Total RESTAURANT SALES ($000)

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 9

10 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

after the early-2000s recession, the economy is

Potential to Break Free in 10.7% 10.3%

economy has taken so long to climb out.

Job GROWTH Income GROWTH Economic GROWTH

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 11

2014 Commodity Price

primary market prices 43.6

12 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

Regular Gasoline Diesel Fuel

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 13

Major Markets: Projected Sales, 2014

$36.6 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

$11.3 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

$31.5 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

$34.8 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

14 National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast

Major Markets Continued

$2.5 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

$31.0 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

$4.5 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

$55.1 2013 Projected 2014 Projected ’13-’14 % ’13-’14 Real

National Restaurant Association | Restaurant.org/Forecast 15

Purchasing: 2014 Projections

Projected Food-and-Drink Purchases ($000)