1

FCV Development
p
and Initial Market Creation

F b
February 1,
1 2012
Taiyo Kawai
Toyota Motor Corporation
 2
Future Vision of Energy Sources for Vehicles

1. Demand for “Diversification of energy sources” Biofuel: Insufficient supply, unstable

and “Reduction of CO2 emissions” increases
during the 21st century. Electricity, hydrogen: Potential candidates

2. Hydrogen is a high-value-added fuel for Japan.

ｸ ﾙfor
Fuel cost ｰ ｶﾞｰ 1 0 km 走行(
Highlander 実用)
to travel に必要な燃料ｺ
10km (practical use)ｽ(excluding
ﾄ（ 税金除く） tax)
150 Hydrogen station cost
STコスト（ＧＳは利益含む）
Estimate
E ti t b basedd on th
the d
data
t (i l di station
(including i bbenefit)
fi )
from the Institute of Applied Energy 輸送コスト（ﾄﾚｰﾗｰ）
Transportation cost (trailer)

コ ス ト[Yen]
円 原料費（水素・ガソリン ）
Material cost (H2 and petroleum)

Resource for
100
i f
infrastructure
t t
燃 料 cost

Cost
establishment
reduction
Flow in Japan
Fuel

50

Flow overseas 0
Flow overseas
Petroleum Hydrogen Hydrogen
Onsite reforming of Onsite reforming of
2008 Summer
natural gas natural gas
Current condition 2020

3. It is important for
f developed countries and the national interests to establish an advanced
model of FCV development / introduction / commercialization including infrastructure
construction and promote it to emerging countries in the future.
 3
Pleasures of FCV

Departure from Pleasures

dependence on oil common to EV and FCV Driving pleasure
- Hydrogen can be produced from - Motor driven smooth and silent
various primary energy sources. operation
- Good acceleration at low and
medium speeds

Pleasures
specific to FCV

Zero CO2
- Zero CO2 emissions during driving
Performance
- Fuel cell start-up below freezing (-30 ºC)
- Practical cruising range (over 500 km)
- Refueling time (within 3 minutes)

FCV is expected
p to supply
pp y electricity
y as an emergency
g y power
p source.
(FCV and FC bus have higher supplying capacity than EV.)
 Comparison of total efficiency 4

in case of operation
p on the fuel originated
g from NG
Toyota estimation
Vehicle Total
Fuel efficiency
Min
Efficiency efficiency
ning/Liquefactio

processing
CNG CNG HV

Tran
No
82%* × 34% ＝ 28 %
82%

R
Refueling
nsportattion
g

Hydrogen FCV
Com
prroduction
Hy
on/Transp

mpression

g
ydrogen
NG

60%* × 60% ＝ 36 %
portation

Thermal power

transmiission

Electricity EV
Charging
genera

Pow
wer

30%* × 81% ＝ 24 %
n

ation

In Japan
*JHFC Report

Total efficiency of Hydrogen/FCV is the highest and

about 1.5 times higher than that of Electricity/EV.
 5
Comparison of System Cost between EV and FCV
Mid size passenger vehicles, around 2020, assumed
(TOYOTA estimation)

EV
Systtem costt

EV
advantage
FCV

FCV
advantage

Practical cruising range

FCV system cost has an advantage in mid-

mid- and long-
long- distance drive.
 6
Vision of Future Vehicle Market
Vehicle FCV
HV & PHV
size
High-speed railway

Route buses Heavy-duty

Passenger cars trucks
Utility railway
HV

EV FCHV(BUS)
Short-distance Delivery
vehicles trucks
Motorcycles
FCHV

EV
PHV

Small delivery Driving

Winglet
ｉ series
vehicles distance

Energy Gasoline, diesel, bio-fuels,

sources
Electricity CNG, synthetic fuels, etc.
Hydrogen

EV: short
short-distance
distance commuter HV/PHV: passenger car
FCV: for mid- and long- distance proposes
 7
Technologies Responding to Environment and Energy Issues

Issues
PHV
Motor
Large
Battery Cost
Battery durability

Engine Fuel
tank
Zero CO2 emissions
EV (Battery EV) during inner city driving

Motor Motor
Battery Cruising range
Large Charging time
Battery Infrastructure
Fuel Cost
Engine
tank Battery durability
Zero CO2 emissions
HV FCHV (Hydrogen FCEV) during driving

Energy saving Motor

(Fuel economy improvement) Battery
B tt Infrastructure
Cost
Stack durability
FC
H2 tank
stack
 8
Factors for Successful Commercialization of FCVs

1. Increased societal acceptance of various energy sources

Global warming, depletion of resources, energy security

2. Vehicle marketability
Resolving technical challenges, reducing cost, and adding new appeal to
the products

FINE-X
2005 Tokyo Motor Show

3. Hydrogen infrastructure development

H2 production, transport & supply,
CO2 sequestration technology
technology, Codes & Standards
 9
TOYOTA FCHV-
FCHV-adv

*1 in Japanese 10-15 test cycle, Toyota in-house test

*2 in Japanese JC08 test cycle, Toyota in-house test
Overall
O ll length/
l th/ width/
idth/ 4,735/ 1,815/ 1,685 Type Pure hydrogen
height (mm)
Max. speed (km/h) 155 ( 96 mph ) Storage system High-press. H2 tank

Vehicle Cruising range Fuel Max

Max. storage 70
491 mile @ LA#4
pressure (MPa)
Fuel economy 139*1 (38km/L gasoline equiv.) Tank capacity 6.1 (15 °C)
(km/kg H2) 126*2 (34.5km/L gasoline equiv.) (kg H2)
Seating capacity 5 Price Lease JPY420k/month
 10
FCHV System Components
Hybrid Technology
Power control unit Motor Battery

TOYOTA High pressure

FC Stack hydrogen tank
Fuel Cell System Technology
TOYOTA FCHV is an integration of fuel cell system technology and hybrid
technology.
 11
Major Technical Challenges for FC Vehicles

Issues to be solved

Balance in C
Cost
ost / Compactness & high performance / Stack Durability

Established
technology
Cruising range

Cold start / Driving performance

TOYOTA FCHV-
FCHV-adv Long
Long--distance Travel 12

(between Osaka and Tokyo) with Single Refueling

The cruising range has been significantly
improved by increasing hydrogen tank pressure
(35 MPa => 70 MPa) and system efficiency
efficiency.
(about 300 km => 500 km with practical driving
cycle)

Japan
O k
Osaka Tokyo

Cruising range
LA#4 790 km
10-15 830 km 560km　(350mile)
Toyota in
in-house
house test

With single refueling, FCHV-

FCHV-adv successfully traveled between
Osaka and Tokyo (560 km) under real
real--use conditions (air
conditioner on, etc.) with enough reserve capacity.
 Actual on-
on-road range evaluation of Toyota’s FCHV with DOE, 13
NREL and SRNL
Joint evaluation of FCHV-
FCHV-adv was performed on
June 30th, 2009 on mixed traffic condition in
Southern California

TTC LA (Torrance
TTC-LA (Torrance, CA)

Trip distance: 331.5

331 5 miles
Fuel Economy :
Surface Streets + 68.3mile/kgH2
Sh
Short F
Freeway
Calculated full
full--tank range :
431miles
Freeway

San Diego, CA
 Cold Start / Driving Capability 14

Performance Test Results in Canada

Timmins, Canada
(degC
degC ) Ambient Air Temperature at Timmins (degF
degF )
10
10 50
Air Temp.

00 32
外気温[℃]

20
-10
-10
Ambient

°C 0
-20
-20

-20
-30
-30
-37 deg C
Yellowknife, Canada
-40
-40 -40
2/8 2/10 2/12 2/14 2/16 2/18
Date

The cold-
cold-weather performance tests verified that the cold start and
driving performance of the TOYOTA FCHV-
FCHV-adv was equivalent to that of
gasoline--powered vehicles.
gasoline
 15
Durability of TOYOTA FC Stack

Initial phase of
development Enhanced performance, without humidification module
=>
> Responding
R di tot deteriorating
d t i ti crossover is
i necessary.
Crrossoverr
Amount

Reduction Threshold
of physical limit value
deterioration
A

2008

Threshold
limit value
mum
Outtput

2008
Maxim

Initial phase of
development Reducing the amount of Pt catalyst
=> Responding to output loss increase is necessary.

Durability (year equivalent)

D
Durability
bilit iis steadily
t dil improving.
i i H
However, it iis necessary to
t eliminate
li i t
the departure between performance and cost.
 16
FCV System Cost Reduction

FCHV-adv
FC syystem cosst

Low-volume
production 1/20 or less

Further cost
Current development cost Mass
1/10 that of the current model production
reduction

Initial phase of Growth phase of

Limited release phase market penetration market penetration

Overcoming
technical challenges Reducing costs
Design, material Economies
and production of scale
technologies

The cost of currently under developed FC system is reduced to approx

1/10 of FCHV
FCHV--adv. Now, we are focusing on achieving another 1/2 cost
reduction toward commercialization start.
 Joint announcement on the launch of FCVs in the Japanese 17

market and the deployment

p y of the H2 stations (released on Jan 13, 2011)
1. Automakers
- Aiming to launch FCVs in the Japanese market mainly in
the country
country’ss four major metropolitan areas in 2015
2. Hydrogen fuel suppliers
- Aiming to construct approximately 100 hydrogen fueling
stations
3. Automakers and hydrogen fuel suppliers
- Working together to expand the introduction of FCVs and
develop the hydrogen supply network throughout Japan
- Looking to the government to join them in forming
various strategies Deployment on highways

Announcement to start
considering full-
full-scale business
Advance deployment in 4 major
metropolitan areas

The companies plan to approach local governments and
other concerned parties to discuss strategies targeting
Japan’s four major metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Nagoya,
Osaka and Fukuoka).
After the initial introduction, automakers and hydrogen fuel
suppliers will work together to expand the introduction of FCVs
and develop the hydrogen supply network throughout Japan
Japan.
Picture of advance deployment of H2 supply network
 18
Toyota’s Future Plan for FCVs
Hydrogen is a strong candidate of energy for vehicles in the future.
As the TOYOTA group, we focus on developing the technology and
commercial
i l products
d t for
f passenger vehicles
hi l and d buses.
b

TOYOTA will start selling sedan type FCVs around 2015.

- In Japan, starting at first in four major metropolitan areas where infrastructure deployment is expected
- At a reasonable and affordable vehicle price for customers
TOYOTA promotes further cost reduction to expand FCV commercialization after 2020.

- 70 MPa high-pressure
hydrogen tank
- Cruising range
Approx. 700 km
(in JC08 test cycle)

Fuel cell concept car “FCV-R” exhibited at Tokyo Motor Show 2011
Fuel Cell Concept Car “FCV-
“FCV-R” 19

Exhibited at Tokyo
y Motor Show 2011

Overall Length: 4,745 mm

Overall Width: 1,790 mm
Overall Height: 1,510 mm
Wheelbase: 2,700 mm
Seating Capacity: 4
C i i R
Cruising Range: 700 kkm
(in Japanese JC08 test cycle, Toyota in-house test)
 20
FCCJ Commercialization Scenario
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Technology Technology & Market Early Commercialization Full Commercialization
Demonstration Demonstration
【JHFC 2】
【JHFC-2】 【Post JHFC】 【Starting Period】 【Expansion Period】 【Profitable business Period】
2010 2011 2015 2016 2025 2026
•Solving technical issues and promotion of •Expanding production and sales of
FCVs while maintaining convenience of Contribute to diversity of
review regulations (Verifying & reviewing
development progress as needed)
FCV users energy sources and
ber

Reducing costs for H2 stations and

•Reducing
reduction of CO2 emissions
ation Numb

hydrogen fuel
•Verifying utility of FCVs •Continuously conducting technology
and H2 stations development and review of regulations
from socio-economic
viewpoint
H2 Sta

Approx. 1,000 H2 stations

stations*
Costs for H2 station construction and
hydrogen reach targets, making the station
Approx. 2 million FCVs* business viable.
umber

(FCV 2,000 units/station)

Period in which preceded H2 station building

Vehicle Nu

Determine specifications of
commercial type H2 stations
Begin building
commercial type H2 stations is necessary
Increase of FCV numbers through
introduction of more vehicle models

Year Note: Vertical axis indicates the relative scale between vehicle number & station number.
* Precondition: Benefit for FCV users (price/convenience etc.) are secured, and FCVs are widely and smoothly deployed
Source: Fuel Cell Commercialization of Japan (FCCJ)
 21
Hydrogen Station Establishment in Japan
1. Hydrogen station deployment

2015 2025 from 2030 onward

“Early
“E l “Commercialization
“C i li ti “Mass
“M
commercialization” expanding” commercialization”
In 4 major 47 prefectural Nation-wide hydrogen
metropolitan areas capitals covered net established
100 stations 1,000 stations 5,000 stations

Commercialization Based on the proposal of Council of Competitiveness

Competitiveness-Nippon
Nippon (COCN)
start in 2015

2. Station technology
gy development
p 3. Regulation
g review

“Action plan for regulation review” was

announced in Dec 2010.
- Material
M t i l standards
t d d - Adjacent
Adj t stations
t ti
- Pressure standards - Periodic inspection method
- Accumulator structure - Self-service stations, etc.
Example of container-type low cost station (Linde, Germany)

It is necessary to solve these three issues for hydrogen station

establishment.
 22
Conditions for FCV’s mass introduction

Self--sustaining increase of FCV sales together

Self
with H2 supply network
Customers Green-conscious
Purchase and drive FCV + economic advantage
(Vehicle cost,
cost fuel cost)

Auto OEMs Energy suppliers

Manufacture & sell FCV Produce & sell H2
Profitability Profitability
(vehicle manufacturing & sales)

For mass introduction of FCV/hydrogen,

profitability of every stakeholder is essential.
 Available Capacity of Hydrogen Supply and 23

Hydrogen Demand Forecast for FCV in Japan (Toyota Estimation)

Million Hydrogen supplying capacity Million
t (2007) vehicles
Available capacity decreases
3 b 20 -30
by 30 % owingi tto H2 30
purification for FCV
2.5 25

2 Fossil fuel Hydrogen 20

consumption(2007)
1.5 Assumption : 15
Petrochemistry 5 million FCVs in the
Ammonia domestic market
1 10
Available capability of hydrogen (2007)
0.5 5
Steel

0 0
Demand
Supply

2029
2025
2020
2015

Current domestic available capacity of hydrogen supply:

About 600,000 tons (could support 5 million FCVs)
 24
Business Model for Hydrogen Station (Toyota Estimation)

Business Model Image Profit

Measures
Factor
Expense

Sales FCHV Deployment into

Break-Even-Point
FC BUS specific regions
Income / E

Variable H2 Cost / Tax - Cost Analysis of H2

Fixed Costs
Early Turnaround
Costs Labor Cost - Development of
Maintenance hi hl d
highly durable
bl
(Time Scale)
Cost station

Fixed Facility Cost Development of low

Costs Construction cost station
Cost

To succeed in business of hydrogen station, governmental assistance and

incentive are important at the early commercialization phase.
 25
Vehicle Fuel Cost
Fuel cost comparison, Fuel economy difference between FCV and HV
considered (in Japan)
Gasoline cost for HV
110

m3)
1200 ≈ H2 cost for FCV

(Yen/Nm
(Yen/kg))
1100 100
NEDO Target
in 2015 1000 90
n price

900 80
Hydrogen

800 70
H

NEDO Target
T t 700 H2 costt is
i cheaper
h
in 2020 60 in this field. Small to large size passenger vehicles,
from 2010 to 2015, assumed
600 (TOYOTA estimation)

50
120 130 140 150 160 170 180
Gasoline price (Yen/L)

Advantages for customers with further improvement of

fuel economy and reduction of H2 price.
 26
Hydrogen Infrastructure Development Scenario in Japan

FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

Phase 2-2
Phase 1 ((JHFC-2)) Phase 2-1 Phase 3
Market Demonstration
Technology Technology (preceding infrastructure Early Commercialization
Demonstration Demonstration establishment)
Providing blueprint for preceding
Cooperation with i f t t
infrastructure establishment
t bli h t Commercialization
Commerciali ation start
to general public
the government Consideration of
Social backup frame
Infrastructure investment
decision
Hydrogen Technology demonstration
- 70MPa full chargeable specification
Preceding infrastructure establishment
suppliers - Introduction and verification of A total of 100 stations
Early
Commercialization
technology of foreign makers in 4 major metropolitan areas 100 stations/year
- Consideration of business model (~2025)
+ highway rest areas in 3 years
establishment

Green Innovation WG ▼ ▼
Regulation review g
Regulation Regulation
g
review (1) review (2)
Present
It is necessary to establish preceding infrastructure between 2013 and 2015
=> Cooperate with energy companies and the national/local governments to make
establishment plans for 4 major metropolitan areas + highway rest areas
 Pictures of H2 Station Deployment in 4 major metropolitan areas 27

(About 110 H2 stations seem to be necessary to cover these assumed areas.)

Kanto Area
17 Chukyo Area
4 60 locations 20 locations
254 51
6
16
14
20 126
環7
環8 10 km in diameter
Approx. 12-minute
246 16 16 drive compass

1 10 km in diameter
Approx. 12-minute
drive compass

Kansai Area Fukuoka Area

R1沿
線 Kitakyushu area Kitakyushu H2 Station

10 locations
R
R2
3

Fukuoka area

20 locations Kyushu University H2 Station

R
10 km in diameter 10 km in diameter
2 Approx. 12-minute
R3・202 Approx. 12-minute
drive compass
6 drive compass
 28
H2 stations by 2013 in California
• 18 CARB & CEC funded NY station plan is
stations are a good base to currently under
b i tto seed
begin d iintroduction.
t d ti development, may
• Additional funding from grow quickly
CEC AB118 (potentially
$18.2M) could add another
8 – 12 stations.

35 MPa Wide H2 coverage

g in
Southern CA
70 MPa
 29
Summary
<Vehicles>
The FCV development is steadily progressing towards the target for the beginning of
commercialization in 2015.
<Infrastructure Preparation in Japan>
The followings are being conducted and confirmed by fiscal 2012:
- Demonstrations of safe and low p price H2 station for commercial use
- Regulation review of infrastructure (Green Innovation W/G)
<Market creation in Japan>
(1) Agreement on implementation of preceding infrastructure establishment from fiscal
2013 to 2015 (about 100 H2 stations mainly in 4 major metropolitan areas)
Providing a concrete blueprint for H2 station establishment by fiscal 2012
- Considering H2 infrastructure business model => Proposing assignments of roles
between public and private sectors
- Proposing mechanism advantageous to prior investors in infrastructure
((2)) Proposing
p g scenario and system
y realize self-
self-sustainable H2 infrastructure business
by 2025
<Market creation in EU and the US>
Market creation in EU likely influenced by H2 Mobility Project in Germany
US market creation discussions occurring in discrete areas (California, New York, etc.)
 30

Today for Tomorrow