Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ESEARCI--1 DEVELOPMENT FU
URE CAREER CREATIVITY C
MMUNITY LEADERSI-J 10 TEC
NOLOGY FRONTI G
ENGINEERING APPI .N
GEORGE WASHI IJ
K ' tv I
CLEARIN:. H CUSE
1c r lr_ ;. .. S • nhnc . ._, Ted•n;o::.Jl
In ""' :n pr .J 1rold Vu 22 15'
by
K. C. Yu
Serial T-2A0
30 June 1970
D D C
» OCT 14 1970 ;
Contract W0OÜ14-67-A-0214
Task 0001, Project NR 3A7 020
Office of Naval Research
Abstract
of
Serial T-240
30 June 1970
by
K. C. Yu
It was found that the linear model is preferable over the non-linear
model and the adding-up process. If the samples are properly selected,
linear models which are statistically significant can be derived.
Given its superiority over the other two models, the degree of
accuracy of the linear model is still not high enough to produce a
dependable point estimation for the total cost of the ship.
K STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BMGINEERINC
APPROACH TO NAVY SHIPBUILDING COST ESTIMATION
By
K. C. Yu
Bachelor of Science
Hapua Institute of Technology, 1956
June 1970
Theais Directed By
John H. Norton, PH.D
Associate Profeesor of Business Administration
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENT 1
LIST OF TABLES lv
LIST OF FIGURES v
CHAPTERS
I. INTRODUCTION 1
Subject, Objectives, Scope 1
Theoretical Basis 2
Data 4
The Cost File A
The Weight File 4
Methodology 5
Detailed Descriptions of the Different
Forms of Regression Analysis 7
Addlng-up Process 7
Linear Regression Analysis 8
Non-linear Regression Analysis 9
The Stepwlse Characteristic of the Regression
Analysis 9
Nature and Limitations of the Available Data 11
Cost Data 11
Weight Data 11
Price Deflator 12
Data Processing 14
li
CHAPTERS Pat
IV. NON-LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
111
LIST OF TABLES
TABLES Page
1. Description of Ship Types 13
2. Results of Stepwlse Linear Regression Analysis
for the Total 928 Ships 15
3. Results of Two-variable Regression Analysis for the
Total 928 Ships 17
4. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for the
Small Hull Group 21
5. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Medium Huill Group 22
6. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Large Hull Group 23
7. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Small Hull Subgroup-1 26
8. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Small Hull Subgroup-2 27
9. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Small Hull Subgroup-3 28
10. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Small Propulsion Group 30
11. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Medium Propulsion Group 31
12. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Large Propulsion Group 32
13. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Transport Ship Group 34
14. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Combat Ship Group 35
15. Results of Stepwise Linear Regression Analysis for
the Amphibious Ship Group 36
16. Summary Table for the Values of v , s/Y and R 37
♦17. Correlation Coefficients r Between the Dependent
Variable and the Independent Variables 38
18. Results of Stepwise Non-linear Regression Analysis
for the Total 928 Ships, Independent Variable
Transformed 48
19. Results of Stepwise Non-linear Regression Analysis
for the Total 928 Ships, Dependent Variable
Transformed 50
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURES Fag«
INTRODUCTION
not fully identified and the relationships among these variables are not
fully understood.
cost estimate data. The first objective of this study is to identify some
objective.
from a collection of contractor's bid proposals for Navy ships which were
i.e., during the conceptual design stage. These estimates are important
study.
-1-
-2-
Ic should be emphasized that the data used In this study are not
what their production cost will be and what their profit will be to arrive
first, they are the only data available and second, the results of the
basis the contractors prepare their bid proposals and predicting how much
the contractors will bid. In this context, the contractors can be regarded
engineering and economic aspects of ship cost with emphasis on the former
Theoretical Basis
and possible future extension of this study is derived from the work of
for at least two reasons. (1) the relative scarcity of detailed technical
information on which to base the estimates and (2) the many uncertainties
since the path from the design stage to the completion of the construction
may serve both purposes, however, the demand for accuracy may in fact not
be the same. It was often suggested that for program analyaia, the abso-
lute cost value need not be accurate provided that the relative coats are
ahip or some multiple of the same ship without specific reference to the
the industry during the relevant time period. The economic approach refers
to studies which attempt to deal explicitly with the Industry and general
approaches but this integration may not come about by simply using both.
Each approach muat likely be modified in form and content to effect desired
one which cannot be accomplished within the near future. A more modest
DATA
The data base for this study consists of two files. The cost
contractors between the year 19SA to 1966. There are 989 records In the
the Navy for the construction of a new ship. Among the total 989
Involves only one distinct ship prototype although several may be built.
Each type of ship may Include one or more different classes (each
of 58 different classes.
types of ships included in the file. Each type of ship may Include one
-5-
exactly to those In the cost file. Each record contains for one
components In tons.
Methodology
regression equations which can accurately predict the total cost of the
Hull structure
Propulsion
Electric plant
Communication and control equipments
Outfit and furnishings
Auxiliary systems
Armament
factors will bear better results and how significant are these results.
regression equations are derived for each of the seven weight groups
1 2
with component cost as the dependent variable and component weight as
- a + b Wi + e , j - 1 to 7 , 1-1 to n .
2
The term "component weight" refer to the physical weight of
the weight groups, i.e., hull weight, propulsion weight etc.
-8-
Aftcr ehe a 's and b.'s are determined by the regression analysis,
which will now be called a. and b , the prediction equation for the
c b w 1 to
lj " •j ^ j 14« J " 7,1-1 to n
The total cost of the ship can then be estimated by using the equation
7
Y. - .J. cl1 + DEC. + CSC^ + proflt1 , 1-1 to n
e. - the residual.
-9-
(1) Y f(
i "''o + j^j V1 + e
i
added Is the one which makes the greatest reduction In the error sum
of squares.
Y independent variables.
b regression coefficient.
Cost Data
The data in the cost file are In reality the estimated cost of
performed in this study, they are not estimated data; they are the given
Weight Data
The component weights of the ships are given in the weight file
In tons. As mentioned earlier, the ship classes found under each type
of ship in the weight file are not exactly the same as those found in
the cost file. (Recall that each class represents a prototype of ship.
One type of ship may include one or more different classes. There are
59 different classes in the cost file and 143 classes in the weight file).
This means that the true weight for the ship's components are not avail-
able for all the ships in the cost file. Weight averages were computed
for the component weights for all the classes under a given ship type in
the weight file and these computed average component weights were assigned
to every ship under the same type in the cost file. Use of approximate
weights and not the true weight will affect the accuracy of the experiments.
-12-
There are some ship types In the cost file for which weight Infor-
must be reduced from 989 records to 928 records and the number of types of
different types of ships which are to be used for statistical analyses are
shown In Table 1.
weights:
PW - Propulsion weight
Price Deflator
The data In the cost file have been collected from the years 1954
Therefore, all cost data In the cost file were adjusted with the
price deflator for producer's durable equipment obtained from the Economic
TABLE 1
AE Ammunition ship 3 33
AS Submarine tender i 19
DD Destroyer *! 19
TABLE 1 — Continued
SS Submarine 2 8
YP Patrol craft 1 28
Data Processing
the data and computations must be performed by the computer, except for
In this study. The cost file was not arranged In formats which could be
used readily as data Input for performing the needed computations with
the computer, and the file had to be edited for errors and missing data.
create numerous Input files which contain data from both the cost file
and weight file and put In format which allows computer execution of the
predict the total cost of a ship if the component weights are known.
of the ship as the dependent variable and the seven component weights
(HW, PW, Of, AUW, EW, OFW, ARW) as independent variables. The entire
TABLE 2
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 s/Y
-15-
-16-
the reduction of the error sum of squares (or equivalently contributes most
2
to increase the value of R ) is the one to be included ahead of the other
remainders. For example, in reeling Table 2, PW is the one which has the
the computation will stop and ignore all remaining independent variables
v - Coefficient of variation.
v-i-
Y
2 2
AR * Increase in R .
-17-
The fact Is that sometimes the Indepenuent variables are highly cor-
come later. To prove and demonstrate this point, seven separate two-
variable regression analyses were performed using the total 928 records,
with total cost of the ship as dependent variable and with one and only
Table 3.
TABLE 3
Independent
variable R2 AR
2
s/Y
TABLE 3 — Continued
Independent
variable R2 AR2 s/Y
Y - 176,170 0 317,977 v
V - 1.8
Y"
2
The values of AR for the weight components in Table 3 are much
higher than those in Table 2 except for PW which was the first indepen-
ments are not satisfactory. One visible reason is the value of the standard
deviation of the dependent variable o , which has a high value and conse-
mean.
aire usually associated with a regression analysis where the sample strati-
fication and/or the regression form used were poor; poor in the sense
that much better selections of one or both of these two factors can lead
2 -
to much improvement in th« value of R and s/Y .
For example, one can
2
observe in Table 4 that for the small hull group, the value of R is .1183
-19-
and the value of s/Y Is 2.73 these results are evidently poor. By
the Small Hull Subgroup-1 shown in Table 7. Therefore, from the vlew-
2
point of statistical significance, an R of less than .70 and/or an
total coat of the ship (which is the dependent variable of the regression
the total cost of the ship is often much over ten million dollars. In
this case, the determining factor which Is Important is the purpose for
different experiments where samples are made up of ship groups with dif-
samples used were more homogeneous, the total 928 ships were stratified
^he types are: AGOR, ACS, DD, DDG, DE, DEG, MSC, MSI, PGM,
SS, SSN, YP.2
2
Detailed descriptions of ship types are given in Table 1.
-IQ-
Three stepwlse regression snslyses were performed for the above three
groups using the totsl cost of the ship as dependent variable and the seven
Tables 4, 5, and 6.
The reaulta show significant laproveaent for the Mediua Hull group
2
and the Large Hull group. The value of R 's had increaaed and the value
observed that theae two groups had a relatively aaall value for the coeffi-
cient of variation v . However, there waa not laproveaent for the Saall
Hull group, it can be seen that this group haa a high coefficient of varia-
tion, v - 1.8 .
. ^e types are: AE, AFS, AKA, AS, OLG, DLGH, DPD, LPH, LSD, LST,
SSBN.*
2 3
The types are; A0E, A0R, OVA.
TABLE 4
Independent _ 2
Variable added R AR s/Y
Y - 115,557
o - 334,630
Y
v - 2.9
-22-
TABLE 5
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 s/Y
Y - 250, 081
o - 93, 704
Y
v - .376
-23-
TABLE 6
20
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 • /Y
Y - 889,961
o - 702,641
v - .795
-24-
for the Small Hull group, it can be seen that this group has a high coef-
point:
the small hull group whose results were reflected in Table A to be poor was
2
The types are: MSC, MSI, PGM, YP.3
3
Detailed description of ship types are given in Table 1.
-25-
with total cost as dependent variable and the component weights as inde-
of v , it is .55 for the Subgroup-1, .545 for the Subgroup-2, and 2.38
TABLE 7
n - 178
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 8/Y
Y - 12,523
oY - 6,932
v - .55
-27-
TABLE 8
n - 228
Independent _ .
variable added R AR a/Y
Y - 91,375
o.Y - 49,952
v - .545
-28-
TABLE 9
n - 199
Independent „ »
variable added R AR s/Y
Y - 235,432
oY - 560,374
v - 2.38
-29-
lower value of s/Y . But so far all previous attempts show that the
value of s/Y has not been less than 20%. This is not satisfactory for
are some better approaches to stratify the samples other than by hull
weight will be discussed. The entire 928 ships were divided on the basis
are shown in Table 10, 11 and 12. The results show no significant improve-
ment over the stratification by hull weight, it exhibits the same characLer-
istics that a low value of v leads to better results and a high value of
^he types are: AGOR, AGS, DE, DEG, LST, MSC, MSI, PGM, SS, YP.4
2The types are: AE, AFS, AKA, AS, DD, DDG, DOG, LPD, LPH, LSD,
SSBN, SSN.4
3 4
The types are: A0E, ADR, CVA, DLGN.
4
Detailed descriptions of ship types are given in Table 1.
-30-
TABLE X0
n - 440
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 a/Y
Y - 57,883
o - 48,600
v - .84
-31-
TABLE 11
n - 465
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 s/Y
EW .0033 .0033 1.45
Y - 254,717
oy - 370,110
v - 1.46
-32-
TABLE 12
n - 23
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 s/Y
Y - 851, 066
Oy ■ 661, 724
v - .78
Stratification by Usage
Wot satisfied with tne hull weight and propulsion weight stratifi-
cation, three groups of ships having the same usage were selected for
ar.alyses.
with total cost as dependent variable and the component weights as inde-
pendent variables. The results are shown In Tables 13, 14 and 15.
value of v thus very poor results and second, the value of a has been
Y
reduced and at some Instance to as low as 13.3%, which the previous two
Just performed, two tables were prepared. Table 16 tabulates the values
2
of v , s/Y and R for the 13 different groups. Table 17 tabulates the
groups.
-34-
TABLE 13
n - 94
Y - 221,420
Oy - 71,662
.323
-35-
TABLE 14
n - 358
Independent
variable added R2 AR
2
8/Y
Y - 161,531
o - 68,085
v - .425
-36-
TABLE IS
n - 101
Independent
variable added R2 AR2 8/Y
Y - 226, 419
oY - 78, 586
v - .35
-37-
TABLE 16
Stratification V s/Y R2
TABLE 17
Total 928 ships .50 .54 .54 .38 .49 .38 .32
Small Hull group .31 .30 .30 .19 .26 .15 .17
Medium Hull group .03 .41 .48 .34 -.11 .02 .19
Large Hull group .97 .97 .96 .97 .97 .97 .96
Small Hull Subgroup-1 .90 .31 .88 .90 .90 .89 .12
Small Hull Subgroup-2 .81 .92 .82 .88 .59 .70 .91
Small Hull Subgroup-J .20 .11 .20 -.21 .21 -.21 -.14
Small Propulsion group .83 .94 .89 .63 .77 .82 .88
Medium Propulsion grouo .01 .02 .06 -.04 -.02 -.02 -.01
Large Propulsion group .93 .95 .96 .72 .94 .92 .96
Transport Ship group .67 -.80 .76 -.15 .12 .85 -.13
Combat Ship group .80 .91 .91 .86 .79 .83 .82
Amphibious Ship group .85 .58 .81 .89 .85 .85 .61
Note:
The entries in the table are value of r
's between the total
xy
cost of the ship and the respective component weights which are shown
at the top of the column.
-39-
v is over 1.00 the result is extremely poor. The value of ■§■ tends to
Y
2
increase or decrease with v. However, the value of R is also a
relationships:
2
(1) In a particular group, if all the r 's are high, R
y
is also high.
2
(2) In a particular group, if all the i 's are low, R
y
is also low.
(3) In a particular group, if some of the r 's are high
(2) The component weights CW, AUW, OFW, ARW have more
occurrence of negative r than HW, PW, and EW.
The correlation matrix for the Independent variable was computed for
each experiment performed. It was found that In many cases the correlation
other independent variable would come up in its place, and as a result, the
2
value of R did not change significantly. This high value of r 's
deviations and correlations are computed about the origin rather than about
the mean.
The method was performed on the total 928 ships. The following is a
2
It can be observed that although the value of R was Improved,
12 2
Best R means the largest value of R obtained from the stepwise
regression analysis.
2
Best s means the smallest value of standard error of estimate
obtained from the stepwise regression analysis.
-41-
s among the many groups chosen for regression analysis in this chapter.
It is therefore favored for testing new methods to find out if the new
method can make further improvement for groups which have comparatively
2
good results already. The experiment shows improvement in R and
error of estimate.
SUMMARY
and the component cost as the dependent variable, i.e., hull cost versus
hull weight, propulsion cost versus propulsion weight, etc. The regression
c
i3 ■ boj+ Yu+ ei • ]:\\i »28 (4-i)
e is the residual .
After the parameters b 's and b 's have been determined, the estimated
oj j
total cost of the ship was computed by the equation
Y, ■ iMb . +
b.W,,) + CSC, + DEC. + Profit. i - 1 to 928 (4-2)
1 J"l oj j ij i i i
-A3-
-44-
The value of s couiputed liere shows significant improvement over the one
s; s
Y
The results are t'Kmpated with those obtained from the multiple regression
analysis as follows
s s
Y
Contradictory to the results obtained with the >28 ships, for the
hare «gain shows that the adding-up process yields poorer results than
s
s
Y
Addlng-up process 54,892 .248
sit.
Multiple regression analysis iH,802 .175
SUMMARY
the ship rfas compared between the adding-up process and the mt „tiple
better results for the 928 ships but poorer results iur the Amphibious
For the 928 ships, the values of the R's obtained from the two-
not true for the Amphibious Ship group and the Transport Ship group
performed with total cost of the ship as the dependent variable and the
-47-
-48-
TABLE 18
—
1
" ~ —- —— ^~ " — —— —
1
W
^J
' W
«•i
''
•s, lo
« lO^J
"u
1 W
U
3 lo
«eWiJ
g
Value of — 1.48 I.52 1.52 1.61 1.71 1.57 1.62
Y — — ™ — —-
Y - 176,170
-w-
7 7
■ 2
Y. - 1 b, W,.+ Lb W. + e (3-1)
i j.i J U J=1 j U
i = 1 to 928,,
(d) HW x PW x CW x EW
The results of the two experiments are shown and compared to the
Best R Best s
obtained obtained
weights were mostly highly correlated with one or more of the seven
and the transformed values of the total cost Y. , which we shall call
form
h + e 1 to 928
f(V
1 - bo 1
+ j"l tJ WIJJ i ' ' '
TABLE 19
n - 928
1
Y
i ^ *r Y
i l0
*eYl
.57 for the linear model to .87 and a decrease of the value of s
Y
from 1.48 for the linear model to 0.218. However, to test whether
7
1 0 b W
j-1 J ij
ei - Yi - Y1 (3-2)
^28
s = -r1! 2
1 i e
928-7-1 " i (3-3)
and ^B^^ wara parformad for tha Amphlbloua Ship group, Coabat
Ship group and Tranaport Ship group; all raaulta indlcata no laprovaaant
7
fCY^ - b0 + T^ f(w^) + 6^ 1 - 1 to 928 •
aa follows:
Beat R Beat a
Ship group, Combat Ship group and Transport Ship group. The same
experiments •
Graphical Analysis
weights, a graph was prepared with points plotted between the total
cost of the ship and the componenc weight. Two representative graphs
are shown here. Figure 1 Is a graph of the total cost versus the
the same value for each of the component weights to all ships of the
same type. The Amphibious Ship group includes four types of ships
This also opens the possibility of making a conjecture that the true
•
-55-
FIGÜRE 1
TOTAL COST VERSUS HULL WEIGHT FOR THE AMPHIBIOUS SHIP GROUP
45
40
35
i
I 30
1
2
1
4
4
3
25 < 6
4
20 ..
2
3
4
15 ■
9
4
1
3
10 • 4
2
tk 2.7 3.2
—r—
3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.2
HULL WEIGHT IN THOUSANDS OF TONS
-56-
PI6URB 2
TOTAL COST VIMU8 PI0PUL8I0N WBIGHT FOR T.IE AMPHIBIOUS »HIP GROUP
50 •
Hot«: th« nuabcra insld« th«
graph danot« tha nuabar 1
of polnta eoacantratad
at tha particular location
1
45
1
40 < 1
1
2
1
35 •
1
1
I 30 •
1
2
1
4 1
a 4 1
25 3 3
6 5
4 5
3
4
20 ■
•7
3
2 3
3
4
3
15 ■ 4
1
3
10 • 4
2
weights of the ship and the total cost of the ship. Multiple regres-
using the total cost of the ship as the dependent variable and the
the total cost of the ship leaves much to be desired. This degree
sion analysis were chosen. It was found that the chances of achieving
accordance with the following two guidelines: (1) The ships are
poses. However, one has to take Into consideration that there are
total cost of the ship which was used as the dependent variable was
cost. Second, the weights of the ship components which were used as
-57-
-S8-
th« indap«nd«nt variables war« only approximate weight value«. They were
not the exact weight value«. In eddltion to the above two limitationa,
this study to perform experiments which further stratify ships into even
but none has shown any significant Improvement over the linear models in
prove« to be an Inferior prediction tool for the total coat of the «hip
regression analysis will not produce the kind of accuracy desired for
ship cost estimation. But It does suggest that with the use of
functions or curves within which a certain range for the total coat of
the ship can be established to enable the Nevy to assess the credibility
-59-
NONE
Security Classification
DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA • R&D i
f5*curliy cllllllleaUan ol lltlt bvjy ol mbttiact mod ind»Mint mnnotmtion mu»l b» mnffd wt>»n tti« ortrmll report 1» elmatlliad) |
1 1 0<IICINATIN C ACTIVfY corpottit »uihor) 2«. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
1J REPORT TITLt
SCIENTIFIC
S AUTHORrS; (Xaal name. Ilrtl ntmt, Inltlml)
YU, K. C.
30 June 1970 67 7 1
•• CONTRACT OR SRANT NO S«. ORIOINATOR'* REPORT NUMBERfSJ
N0001A-67-A-02I4 T-2A0
b. RROJiCT NO
NR 347 020
e. tb. QTHCR REPORT NOt'S; (A ny olhmt numbtr» that mty b» mfigntd
ml» raporO
d
10 A VAIL ABILITY/LIMITATION NOTICES
::
u ABSTRACT In this st[J(iy ^ the feasibility of developing reRresslon models to
predict the total cost of a Navy ship using the physical weights of the ship
components as independent variables was investigated. The various forms of
regression analyses fall under the following three categories:
It was found that the linear model is preferable over the non-linear model
and the addlng-up process. If the samples are properly selected, linear
models which are statistically significant can be derived. Given its
superiority over the other two models, the degree of accuracy of the linear |
model is still not high enough to produce a dependable point estimation for
the total cost of the ship.
DD .^1473 NONE
Security Classification
NONE
Security Classification
14 LINK A LINK B LINK C
KEY WORDS
ROLE ROLE ROLE
INSTKUCTIONS
1. ORIGINATING ACTIVITY: Enter the name fend »dd.ess imposed by security classification, using standard statements
of the contractor, aubcontractor, grantee, Department of De- such as:
fense activity or other organization (corporate author) issuing (1) "Qualified requesters may obtain copies of this
the report. report from DDC"
2a. REPORT SECUfcTY CLASSIFICATION: Enter the over- (2) "Foreign announcement and dissemination of this
all aecurity classification of the report. Indicate whether report by DDC is not authorized."
"Restricted Data" is included. Marking is to be in accord-
ance with appropriate security regulations. (3) "U. S. Government agencies may obtain copies of
this report directly from DDC. Other qualified DDC
2b. GROUP: Automatic downgrading is specified in DoD Di- users shall request through
rective 5200.10 and Armed Forces Industrial Manual. Enter
the group number. Also, when applicable, show that optional
markings have been used for Group 3 and Group 4 as author- (4) "U. S. military agencies may obtain copies of this
ized. report directly from DDC Other qualified users
3. REPORT TITLE: Enter the complete report title in all •hall request through
capital letters. Titles in all cases should be unclassified.
If a meaningful title cannot be selected without classifica-
tion, show title classification in all capitals in parentheais (S) "All distribution of this report is controlled. Qual-
immediately following the title. ified DDC users shall request through
4. DESCRIPTIVE NOTES: If appropriate, enter the type of
report, e.g., interim, progress, summary, annual, or final. If the report has been furnished to the O.fice of Technical
Give the inclusive dates when a specific reporting period is Services, Department of Commerce, for sale to the public, indi-
covered. cate this fact and enter the price, if known,
5. AUTHOK(S): Enter the name(s) of authoKa) aa shown on 1L SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES: Use for additional explana-
or in the report. Enter last name, first name, middle initial. tory notes.
If military, show rank and branch of service. The name of
the principal «Kthor is an absolute minimum requirement. 12. SPONSORING MILITARY ACTIVITY: Enter the name of
the departmental project office or laboratory sponsoring (pay
6. REPORT DATL: Enter the date of the report as day, inj for) the research and development. Include address.
month, year; or month, year. If more than one date appears
on the report, use date of publication. 13- ABSTRACT: Enter an abstract giving a brief and factual
summary of the document indicative of the report, even though
7«. TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES: The total page count it may also appear elsewhere in the body of the technical re-
should follow normal pagination procedures, i.e., enter the port. If additional space is squired, a continuation sheet shall
number of pages containing information. be attached.
7b. NUMBER OF REFERENCES: Enter the total number of It is highly desirable that the abstract of classified reports
.references cited in the report. be unclassified. Each paragraph of the abstract shall end with
8a. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER: If appropriate, enter an Indication of the military security classificstion of the in-
the applicable number of the contract or grant under which formation in the paragraph, represented as (TS), (S), (C), or (V).
the report was written. There is no limitation on the length of the abstract. How-
8b, 8c, & 8<f. PROJECT NUMBER: Enter the appropriate ever, the suggested length is from 150 to 225 words.
militaiy department identification, such aa project number,
■ubproject number, system numbers, task number, etc. 14. KEY WORDS: Key words arc technically meaningful terms
or short phrases that characterize a report and may be used as
9*. ORIGINATOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S): Enter the offi- index entries for cataloging the report. Key words must be
cial report number by which the document will be identified selected so that no security classification is required. Identi-
and controlled by the originating activity. This number must fiers, siirh as equipment model designation, trade name, military
be unique to this report. project code name, geographic location, mny be used as key
9b. OTHER REPORT NUMBER(S): If the report has been words but will be followed by an indication of technical con-
assigned any other report numbers (either by the originator text. The assignment of links, roles, and weights is optional.
or by the sponsor.), also enter this numbcr(s).
10. AVAILABILITY/LIMITATION NOTICES: Enter any lim-
itations on further dissemination of the report, other than those
DD FORM
t JAN «4 1473 (BACK) NONE
Security Classification