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Landslide susceptibility mapping using


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Article in Environmental Earth Sciences · March 2012


DOI: 10.1007/s12665-012-1842-5

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Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464
DOI 10.1007/s12665-012-1842-5

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio, analytic


hierarchy process, logistic regression, and artificial neural
network methods at the Inje area, Korea
Soyoung Park • Chuluong Choi • Byungwoo Kim •

Jinsoo Kim

Received: 18 August 2011 / Accepted: 9 July 2012 / Published online: 9 August 2012
 Springer-Verlag 2012

Abstract Every year, the Republic of Korea experiences Introduction


numerous landslides, resulting in property damage and
casualties. This study compared the abilities of frequency Climate changes such as rising sea levels and more severe
ratio (FR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), logistic rainstorms, typhoons, and floods are expected to occur with
regression (LR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models global warming, increasing the frequency of natural
to produce landslide susceptibility index (LSI) maps for use disasters. In the Republic of Korea (hereafter, Korea), the
in predicting possible landslide occurrence and limiting Korean Meteorological Administration has reported that
damage. The areas under the relative operating characteristic temperatures have been persistently rising since 1908, the
(ROC) curves for the FR, AHP, LR, and ANN LSI maps were year when meteorological observations began. During the
0.794, 0.789, 0.794, and 0.806, respectively. Thus, the LSI past 25 years, the annual average temperature has risen
maps developed by all the models had similar accuracy. A 1–2 C in each district of Korea, with temperatures rising
cross-tabulation analysis of landslide occurrence against non- over time. In addition, torrential rain now occurs frequently
occurrence areas showed generally similar overall accuracies in some regions, resulting in natural disasters such as
of 65.27, 64.35, 65.51, and 68.47 % for the FR, AHP, LR, and landslides. Landslides are difficult to predict and are mostly
ANN models, respectively. A correlation analysis between caused by shear fractures that appear at moving soil and
the models demonstrated that the LR and ANN models had rock borders.
the highest correlation (0.829), whereas the FR and AHP Landslides generate larger annual losses of property
models had the lowest correlation (0.619). than any other type of natural disaster, including earth-
quakes, floods, and windstorms (Garcia-Rodriguez et al.
Keywords Frequency ratio (FR)  Analytic hierarchy 2008). Landslides accounted for approximately 4.4 % of
process (AHP)  Logistic regression (LR)  Artificial neural natural disasters worldwide from 1990 to 2009, with 2.3 %
network (ANN)  Landslide susceptibility index (LSI) of reported landslides occurring in Asia (CRED 2009). In
Korea, approximately 70 % of the land is mountainous,
S. Park  C. Choi  B. Kim and large-scale landslides often result from the heavy rains
Department of Spatial Information Engineering,
that accompany thunderstorms and torrential rains.
Pukyong National University, 45 Yongso-ro, Nam-gu,
Busan 608-737, Republic of Korea Typhoons Yanni (in 1998), Rusa (2002), Maemi (2003),
e-mail: 100yac@hanmail.net and Ewinia (2006) brought particularly heavy rains that
C. Choi caused many landslides in Korea (Fig. 1). For example, in
e-mail: cuchoi@pknu.ac.kr August 1998 during Yanni, 511 landslides occurred
B. Kim in Jangheung (588 mm), 788 in Sangju (522 mm), and 283
e-mail: apple0039@lycos.co.kr in Pohang (150 mm). Massive landslides also occurred in
August 2002, with 984 in Gangneung (984 mm), and
J. Kim (&)
August 2006, with 748 in Pyeongchang (898 mm) (Lee
ZEN21, 2nd Floor, RNC Building, 981-1 Bangbae 3-dong,
Seocho-gu, Seoul 137-848, Republic of Korea 2011). Moreover, landslides caused 204 deaths in Korea in
e-mail: pknu9680@gmail.com the years 1997–2010, representing approximately 25 % of

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1444 Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464

Fig. 1 Losses and areas


damaged by landslides in Korea
from 1997 to 2010 (Statistic
Korea 2011)

the total casualties due to natural disasters in that period 2008; Van Westen and Terlien 1996). Heuristic analysis is
(Park et al. 2005). used by geomorphologists to analyze aerial photographs or
According to Schuster (1996), this trend will likely to conduct field surveys. This approach combines geo-
continue in future decades as a result of changes in climate morphological analysis with qualitative map development.
associated with increased urbanization and development, Geomorphological analysis is also known as the direct
further deforestation, and increased regional precipitation mapping method, whereby susceptibility is established
in landslide-prone areas. directly by researchers in the field (Cardinali et al. 2002;
Mapping the areas that are susceptible to landslides is Van Westen et al. 2000; Yilmaz and Yildirim 2006).
essential for effective land-use management and should Qualitative maps weight each factor affecting landslides
become a standard tool to support land management deci- based on researchers’ expertise. This method has been used
sion-making (Akgun 2012). Landslide susceptibility maps widely to evaluate areas vulnerable to landslides (Ayalew
can be drawn using a qualitative or quantitative approach et al. 2004; Castellanos Abella and Van Westen 2007;
(Soeters and Van Westen 1996; Aleotti and Chowdhury Yoshimatsu and Abe 2006). Statistical analysis is used to
1999; Guzzetti et al. 1999). Qualitative approaches were select and analyze factors affecting landslides in areas with
widely used by geologists and geomorphologists until the environmental conditions similar to those where past
late 1970s. Quantitative approaches, which have been fre- landslides have been reported. Bivariate (Naranjo 1994;
quently used in recent years, involve methods to analyze Suzen and Doyuran 2004a; Thiery et al. 2008; Yalcin
the relations between causes of landslides based on prob- 2008) or multivariate (Baeza and Corominas 2001; Carrara
abilistic models. These approaches have become popular in 1983; Chung et al. 1995; Suzen and Doyuran 2004b) sta-
the past few decades, assisted by developments in com- tistical analyses may be used, depending on the number of
puter and geographic information system (GIS) technol- dependent variables. Recently, new techniques such as
ogy. Probabilistic models are commonly used, and a large fuzzy-logic, artificial neural network (ANN), and neuro-
number of methodologies have been developed. Addi- fuzzy models have been used to evaluate landslide sus-
tionally, methods to map landslide susceptibility can be ceptibility (Ermini et al. 2005; Kanungo et al. 2006; Lee
classified into four groups, namely landslide inventory- et al. 2007; Oh and Pradhan 2011; Sezer et al. 2011;
based probabilistic, deterministic, heuristic, and statistical Tangestani 2004). Some studies have used two or three
techniques (Carrara et al. 1995; Guzzetti et al. 1999; models to construct landslide susceptibility maps and
Chacon et al. 2006; Akgun 2012). Landslide inventory- compare their accuracy; compared models have included
based probabilistic techniques involve the collection of probability and statistical analyses (Lee and Sambath 2006;
past landslide data, construction of databases, and creation Lee and Pradhan 2007), statistical and ANN analyses
of inventory or susceptibility maps based on those data (Yesilnacar and Topal 2005), and probability, statistical,
(Chau et al. 2004; Duman et al. 2005). Deterministic and ANN analyses (Lee et al. 2007; Yilmaz 2009).
techniques are based on physical conservation laws and This study investigated the Inje Town area located in
require the creation of a map that displays the spatial dis- Inje County, Gangwon Province, Korea. The study area
tribution of input data. This form of analysis is based on the experienced large-scale landslides caused by the intensive
slope safety model, which allows the calculation of quan- rainfall that accompanied Typhoon Ewiniar in July 2006.
titative values expressing the degree of safety (Godt et al. The goal of this study was to create landslide susceptibility

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Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464 1445

maps of the Inje Town area using four different models and located between 37.90 and 38.73N latitude and 128.08–
then to analyze, evaluate, and compare the results of each 128.22E longitude, covering a total area of 57 km2
model. The four methods used were a probability model (Fig. 2). Many valleys exist in the study area. The valleys
(frequency ratio, FR), an analytical method (analytic trend north–northeast, and most were shaped by large
hierarchy process, AHP), a statistical model (logistic faults, which causes the ground to be very weak. The
regression, LR), and a data-mining method (artificial neural geologic features of this area include gneisses of the Pre-
network, ANN). As input data we considered the following cambrian Era and granites of the Mesozoic Era. Various
causative factors of landslides: topographic factors (ele- fault activities, intensively distributed in this area, have
vation, slope, aspect), hydrological factors (distance to created surface discontinuities, with broken bedrock slop-
drainage, stream power index, topographic wetness index), ing in various directions. In addition, many mountainous
soil factors (soil texture, soil effective thickness), forest areas have steep slopes (over 30) susceptible to slope
factors (tree type, tree diameter, tree age, crown density), failure (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
and land-cover factors (land-use/land-cover type). The 2006).
susceptibility maps constructed by each model were ana-
lyzed based on the area under the curve (AUC) values of Data preparation
relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the
accuracy in defining landslide and non-landslide zones was In this study, 466 aerial photographs with 50-cm spatial
compared using cross-tabulation. Additionally, correlation resolution were used to detect landslide locations. Photo-
analysis was also conducted to examine correlations among graphs of Nerin-chun stream in Inje County were taken
the models. using the Pukyong National University (PKNU) IV system
on 2 August 2006.
Figure 3 shows the process of creating detailed land-
Methodology slide-inventory maps of the study area. The aerial images
were orthorectified using the ERDAS Leica Photogram-
Study area metry Suite (LPS) (Erdas 2011). Spatial data were obtained
by extracting landslide zones by digitizing via visual
Gangwon Province, located in the central eastern part of interpretation using ArcGIS software. For the extraction of
Korea, has 1.25 million residents. The province occupies landslide zones, the rupture areas were generated as a
16,875 km2, representing 17 % of the total national terri- polygon feature according to the classification method for
tory, making Gangwon the second largest province after rocky mud flow, following field survey notes of the Korea
Gyeongsangbuk. Of the total territory of Gangwon, 81 % Forest Service (2006). The 708 landslide zones extracted
(13,661 km2) is mountainous (Statistics Korea 2009). from the aerial photographs ranged from 6 to 3,994 m2
Mountainous topography, combined with Korea’s rainfall (average 162 m2, total 11,998 m2).
pattern, in which 50–60 % of total annual precipitation Various data such as geography, geology, soil, and
occurs in summer (e.g., in 2008 total rainfall was vegetation data are needed for landslide susceptibility
1,035 mm, of which 621 mm fell in summer), makes the mapping. The relevant data for this study were collected
area susceptible to landslides. Typhoon Ewiniar brought and compiled as spatial databases using the ArcGIS 9.3 and
record-breaking rainfall to the region. ERDAS 9.2 programs. Supporting data used for this study
In Inje County, Gangwon Province, the maximum daily included 1:5,000-scale topographic maps, 1:5,000-scale
rainfall of 355 mm/day recorded during Ewiniar was the soil maps, 1:25,000-scale forest maps, and 1:25,000-scale
largest since scientific observations began in 1973 and land-cover maps. From the maps, 13 factors were extracted
equivalent to *80–500 year rainfall frequency (Korea for landslide susceptibility analysis. Table 1 lists the clas-
Meteorological Administration 2006). The typhoon left 20 ses, types, and scales of data input to the GIS database
people dead and another nine persons missing and caused constructed for this study area. Landslide-related factors
412 million USD of property damage (Lee and Yoo 2009). were established in a spatial data base with 5 9 5-m grid
The Korea National Emergency Management Agency size by considering the accumulation of input data and the
(2009) also reported that approximately 400 landslides size of the research area (Fig. 4). The study area grid was
occurred around Girin Township, Nam Township, and Inje 448 rows by 729 columns (total 326,592 grid cells;
Town in Inje County, with the largest scale and frequency 8,164,800 m2). Of the grid cells, landslides occurred in 708
of landslides occurring in Inje Town. (11,998 m2).
Because of the frequency and severity of landslides in Contour lines and survey base points with elevation
the Inje Town area, we chose it for our examination of values were extracted from a 1:5,000-scale topographic
landslide frequency and distribution. The study area is map produced by the Korea National Geographic

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Fig. 2 Study area for which landslide susceptibility maps were created. a Photo of a landslide and b locations of the study area and landslides

Information Institute (KNGII), and a digital elevation factors, a 1:25,000-scale land-cover map from the Korea
model (DEM) was made. Using the DEM, topographic Ministry of Environment (KME) was used. Land-cover
factors of elevation, slope, and aspect were calculated. data were classified by visual interpretation using SPOT-5
Maps of soil factors, soil texture, and effective thickness imagery. The classification had 22 items, including resi-
were constructed using a 1:5,000-scale soil map from the dential area, paddy, and conifer.
Korea National Academy of Agricultural Science In addition, a topographic map was used to calculate the
(KNAAS) in South Korea. The soil texture refers to the distance to drainage, the topographic wetness index (TWI),
ratio of sand, silt, and clay. Soil with particle diameters of and the stream power index (SPI). The distance to drainage
0.004 mm or less was considered clay, soil with was calculated using the distance function in ArcGIS 9.3.
0.002–0.02 mm particles was considered silt, and soil with The TWI, which was developed by Beven and Kirkby
0.02–2.00 mm particles was considered sand. The effective (1979) within a runoff model, has been used to study
root depth is defined as the depth below which there is spatial-scale effects on hydrological processes and is
limited root activity. Thus, it is the depth until the colluvial defined by Eq. (1). The SPI is directly proportional to
horizon in the soil cross section. The effective root depth stream power, which is the time rate of energy expenditure,
was classified into very shallow (0–20 cm), shallow and thus a measure of the erosive power of overland flow
(21–50 cm), normal (51–100 cm), and deep (101–150 cm). (Moore etal. 1991),
 as defined by Eq. (2):
The forest-related maps were created from maps of tree a
TWI = ln ð1Þ
type, tree diameter, tree age, and crown density using a tanb
1:25,000-scale forest map. Here, crown density refers to
SPI ¼ a  tan b ð2Þ
the degree of closure of the crown canopy. The latter is
composed of the adjoined crown of a tree and the crown, where a is the local upslope area draining through a certain
and was classified into low (50 % or below), medium point per unit of contour length, and b is the local slope
(51–70 %), or high (71 % or above). For land-cover gradient in degrees.

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Fig. 3 Flow chart of the process of creating and assessing landslide susceptibility maps of the study area

Landslide susceptibility assessment models 1999). To construct a probability model for landslide
hazard, it is necessary to assume that landslide occurrence
Various models such as the frequency ratio, logistic, spa- is determined by landslide-related factors, and that future
tial, and geographically weighted regression, analytical landslides will occur under the same conditions as past
hierarchy processes, fuzzy logic, and artificial neural net- landslides. The FR model is commonly used for landslide
works have been used to analyze landslide susceptibility. In hazard analysis (Lee and Dan 2005; Lee and Sambath
this study, frequency ratio (FR), analytic hierarchy process 2006; Lee and Pradhan 2007; Akgun et al. 2008; Yilmaz
(AHP), logistic regression (LR), and artificial neural net- 2009; Jadda et al. 2009; Erener and Düzgün 2010; Akgun
work (ANN) models were applied to landslide suscepti- 2012). The FR is the ratio of the probability of an occur-
bility analysis using the 13 landslide-related factors rence to the probability of a non-occurrence for given
described above. attributes (Bonham-Carter 1994).
The FR for each factor type or range was calculated
Frequency ratio from its relationship to landslide events. The larger the
ratio was, the stronger the relationship between landslide
In probability models for the prediction of landslide hazard, occurrence and the given factor’s attribute (Lee and Talib
the hazard at each point or pixel is considered to be the 2005). The 13 factors were converted to a grid format to
joint conditional probability that the pixel will be affected calculate the landslide susceptibility index (LSI). Using
by a future landslide given (conditional to) information GIS software, the grids were overlaid with the geographic
from the spatial input data at the pixel (Chung and Fabbri coverage for the study area. During the overlay process, the

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Table 1 Classification, data type, and scale of the spatial database Fig. 4 Parameter maps of the study area. a elevation, b slope, c
and factors in the study area (Jin et al. 2010; Oh et al. 2010) c aspect, d distance to drainage, e stream power index, f topographic
wetness index, g soil texture, h soil effective thickness, i tree type,
Classification GIS data type Scale or j tree diameter, k tree age, l crown density, and m land-use/land-cover
resolution type
Spatial Factor
database
CI ¼ ðkmax  nÞ=ðn  1Þ; ð4Þ
Topographical Elevation Arc/Info grid 1:5,000
map where kmax is the largest or principal eigenvalue of the
Slope matrix, and n is the order of the matrix (Saaty 1977).
Aspect The consistency ratio (CR) is obtained by comparing the
Distance to Arc/Info line CI with the appropriate value in a set of numbers in which
drainagea coverage
each is an average random CI derived from a sample of
Stream power Arc/Info grid randomly generated reciprocal matrices using the scale 1/9,
indexa
1/8, …, 1. …, 8, 9:
Topographic
wetness indexa CR = CI/RI; ð5Þ
Soil map Texture Arc/Info polygon 1:25,000
coverage where RI is the average of the resulting CI depending on
Effective the order of the matrix given by Saaty (1977).
thickness A CR above 0.1 indicates an inconsistent treatment of
Forest map Type Arc/Info polygon 1:25,000 particular factor ratings, necessitating revision of the
coverage judgments in the matrix (Saaty 1977; Dai et al. 2001). In
Diameter general, the AHP calculates the relative weights for each
Age determinant based on a questionnaire survey; these weights
Crown density are used to generate a pair-wise comparison matrix.
Land-cover Land-use/land- Arc/Info grid 10 9 10 m However, we used the method of Wu (2002), who reported
map cover type that the weights for the spatial variables in the multi-cri-
a
Factors calculated from the topographic map teria evaluation (MCE) were difficult to determine accu-
rately and comprehensively. These issues arise from the
process of obtaining weights in the MCE. As a solution,
LSI was calculated by summation of each factor’s ratio Wu (2002) proposed the use of a LR procedure.
value using Eq. (3). The LSI represents the relative hazard
of landslide occurrence. The larger the value is, the higher Logistic regression
is the risk of landslide occurrence (Lee and Pradhan 2007;
Lee and Dan 2005). It is defined as Logistic regression, a type of multivariate analysis, is
X
LSI = Fr ð3Þ useful for predicting the presence or absence of a charac-
teristic or outcome based on the values of a set of predictor
where Fr is a rating of each factor’s type or range. variables (Lee and Sambath 2006). The LR model, which
was developed by McFadden (1973), uses independent
Analytic hierarchy process variables to create a mathematical formula for the proba-
bility that an event will occur on any given parcel of land.
The AHP model, developed by Saaty in the early 1970s, is The key to LR is that the dependent variable is dichoto-
a kind of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process mous. The independent variables in this model are pre-
that can be used to examine complicated technological, dictors of the dependent variable and can be measured on a
economic, and social-political matters (Saaty 1977; Saaty nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio scale. The relationship
and Vargas 1991). The process involves pair-wise com- between the dependent and independent variables is non-
parisons of decision variables (e.g., objectives, alterna- linear (Yesilnacar and Topal 2005). The relationship
tives). In the construction of a pair-wise comparison between the occurrence and its dependency on several
matrix, each factor is rated against every other factor by variables can be expressed quantitatively as
assigning a relative dominance value between 1 and 9 to
P = 1/(1 + eZ Þ; ð6Þ
the intersecting cell (Dai et al. 2001). In addition, the
measure of inconsistency can be used to successively where P is the probability that an event will occur. The
improve the consistency of judgments. The consistency probability varies from 0 to 1 on an S-shaped curve. In
index (CI) of a matrix of comparisons is other words, the higher the value of the independent

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Fig. 4 continued

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Fig. 4 continued

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Fig. 4 continued

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Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464 1453

Fig. 4 continued

variable with a positive relationship to P, the greater the error-correction learning, which means that the desired
landslide susceptibility is. In Eq. (6), Z represents the linear response of the system must be known; a back-propaga-
combination tion (BP) algorithm must also be known (Zurada 1992).
Z ¼ B 0 þ B1 X 1 þ B2 X 2 þ    þ B n Xn ð7Þ The S-shaped sigmoid function is commonly used as the
transfer function.
It follows that LR involves fitting the above equation to The BP algorithm randomly selects the initial weights.
the data, where B0 is the intercept of the model, Bi (i = 0, Then, the difference between the expected and calculated
1, 2, …, n) represents the coefficients of the LR model, and output values across all observations is summarized using
Xi (i = 0, 1, 2, …, n) denotes the independent variables the mean-square error. After all observations are presented
(Lee and Sambath 2006). to the network, the weights are modified according to a
As a first step in the analysis, a map showing the area generalized delta rule (Rumelhart et al. 1986). This process
affected by landslides and factor maps (see Table 1) in of feeding forward signals and back-propagating errors is
raster format were converted into ASCII format. The sta- repeated iteratively until the error stabilizes at a low level
tistical package SPSS 13.0 was then used to estimate the (Pijanowski et al. 2002).
correlation between a landslide event and landslide-
affecting factors. In this process, coefficients were mostly Validation and comparison
estimated based on the maximum likelihood model.
Statistical methods must be developed to validate models
Artificial neural network because it is essential to know a model’s prediction accu-
racy. The method of validation used in this study employed
An ANN is a computational mechanism that can acquire, a quantitative measurement called the relative operating
represent, and compute a map of information from one characteristic (ROC). The ROC curve is a useful method
multivariate space to another using a data set representing for representing the quality of deterministic and probabi-
that mapping (Garrett 1994). The purpose of an ANN is to listic detection and forecast systems (Swets 1988). If there
build a model of the data-generating process so that the are two dependent variables, the ROC curve can be drawn
network can generalize and predict outputs from inputs that using the predicted dependent variables through statistical
it has not previously seen (Lee et al. 2003). models. In this case, an error matrix calculated by the
The multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, classification standard value is required. The error matrix is
which has been described by Rumelhart et al. (1986), is a table that suggests both the correctly classified frequency
one of the most widely used ANNs. The MLP consists of and other frequencies for each scope of dependent vari-
three layers (input, hidden, and output layers) and can ables between the real and predicted values, and the ROC
identify relationships that are non-linear in nature (Pija- is a curve connecting the sensitivity and the 1-specificity
nowski et al. 2002). The MLP networks are trained by acquired by the error matrix.

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Table 2 Result of the frequency ratio model for each factor


Factor Class Grids in Percentage Number of Percentage of Frequency
domain of grids showing grids showing ratio
grids in landslide landslide
domain occurrence occurrence

Elevation 400–450 m 2,592 0.79 0 0.00 0.00


451–500 m 21,274 6.51 64 3.66 0.56
501–540 m 35,521 10.88 215 12.30 1.13
541–580 m 55,284 16.93 379 21.68 1.28
581–620 m 53,631 16.42 324 18.54 1.13
621–660 m 49,754 15.23 387 22.14 1.45
661–700 m 42,271 12.94 195 11.16 0.86
701–740 m 27,731 8.49 129 7.38 0.87
741–780 m 19,673 6.02 37 2.12 0.35
More than 781 m 18,861 5.78 18 1.03 0.18
Slope 0–7 31,805 9.74 76 4.35 0.45
8–14 15,215 4.66 14 0.80 0.17
15–21 50,712 15.53 257 14.70 0.95
22–28 87,769 26.87 483 27.63 1.03
29–35 75,851 23.23 450 25.74 1.11
36–42 42,419 12.99 302 17.28 1.33
43–49 16,953 5.19 118 6.75 1.30
50–56 4,739 1.45 37 2.12 1.46
57–63 992 0.30 9 0.51 1.70
More than 64 137 0.04 2 0.11 2.73
Aspect Flat 30,137 9.23 76 4.35 0.47
North-facing 15,881 4.86 55 3.15 0.65
Northeast-facing 30,947 9.48 158 9.04 0.95
East-facing 36,781 11.26 225 12.87 1.14
Southeast-facing 37,287 11.42 296 16.93 1.48
South-facing 46,647 14.28 240 13.73 0.96
Southwest-facing 37,068 11.35 220 12.59 1.11
West-facing 34,173 10.46 229 13.10 1.25
Northwest-facing 38,578 11.81 192 10.98 0.93
North-facing 19,093 5.85 57 3.26 0.56
Distance to drainage 0–50 m 69,949 21.42 398 22.76 1.06
50–100 m 57,649 17.65 316 18.06 1.02
100–150 m 51,570 15.79 272 15.55 0.98
150–200 m 47,160 14.44 249 14.25 0.99
200–250 m 40,274 12.33 207 11.86 0.96
250–300 m 31,460 9.63 162 9.25 0.96
300–350 m 18,350 5.62 92 5.26 0.94
350–400 m 7,455 2.28 36 2.09 0.91
400–450 m 2,352 0.72 13 0.75 1.05
More than 451 m 373 0.11 3 0.16 1.43

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Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464 1455

Table 2 continued
Factor Class Grids in Percentage Number of Percentage of Frequency
domain of grids showing grids showing ratio
grids in landslide landslide
domain occurrence occurrence

Stream power index 0.0–3.5 308,890 94.58 1,628 93.14 0.98


3.6–6.7 15,230 4.66 110 6.29 1.35
6.8–7.2 671 0.21 2 0.11 0.56
7.3–7.7 510 0.16 6 0.34 2.20
7.8–8.2 359 0.11 1 0.06 0.52
8.3–8.7 177 0.05 0 0.00 0.00
8.8–9.2 119 0.04 0 0.00 0.00
9.3–9.7 153 0.05 1 0.06 1.22
9.8–10.2 162 0.05 0 0.00 0.00
More than 10.3 321 0.10 0 0.00 0.00
Topographic wetness index 0.0–2.2 12,728 3.90 16 0.92 0.23
2.3–4.4 806 0.25 9 0.51 2.09
4.5–6.6 288,186 88.24 1,637 93.65 1.06
6.7–8.8 18,987 5.81 64 3.66 0.63
8.9–11.0 4,052 1.24 16 0.92 0.74
11.1–13.2 1,062 0.33 6 0.34 1.06
13.3–15.4 550 0.17 0 0.00 0.00
15.5–17.6 198 0.06 0 0.00 0.00
17.7–19.8 21 0.01 0 0.00 0.00
More than 19.9 2 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
Soil texture Sandy loam 227,716 69.72 1,510 86.38 1.24
Loam 98,876 30.28 238 13.62 0.45
Soil effective thickness 20–50 cm 125,881 38.54 276 15.79 0.41
51–100 cm 178,074 54.52 1,433 81.98 1.50
More than 101 cm 22,637 6.93 39 2.23 0.32
Tree type Non-stocked forest land 1,830 0.56 0 0.00 0.00
Mixed forest of soft and hardwood 72,062 22.06 410 23.46 1.06
Hardwood forest 4,968 1.52 0 0.00 0.00
Pine forest 171,083 52.38 1,287 73.63 1.41
Larch forest 35,894 10.99 0 0.00 0.00
Nut pine forest 1,363 0.42 6 0.34 0.82
Artificial forest of pine 2,094 0.64 0 0.00 0.00
Farmland 819 0.25 0 0.00 0.00
Grassland 2,373 0.73 19 1.09 1.50
Non-forest land 34,106 10.44 26 1.49 0.14
Tree No data 39,127 11.98 45 2.57 0.21
diameter 0–5 cm 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
6–16 cm 85,018 26.03 417 23.86 0.92
18–28 cm 155,153 47.51 1,066 60.98 1.28
More than 30 cm 47,294 14.48 220 12.59 0.87

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1456 Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464

Table 2 continued
Factor Class Grids in Percentage Number of Percentage of Frequency
domain of grids showing grids showing ratio
grids in landslide landslide
domain occurrence occurrence

Tree age No data 39,127 11.98 45 2.57 0.21


1–10 years 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
11–20 years 40,734 12.47 6 0.34 0.03
21–30 years 44,284 13.56 411 23.51 1.73
31–40 years 97,816 29.95 723 41.36 1.38
41–50 years 57,337 17.56 343 19.62 1.12
More than 51 years 47,294 14.48 220 12.59 0.87
Crown density No data 45,266 13.86 21 1.21 0.09
Low 9,210 2.82 246 14.10 5.00
Medium 68,486 20.97 512 29.29 1.40
High 203,630 62.35 968 55.40 0.89
Land-use/land-cover type Inland wetland 1,548 0.47 0 0.00 0.00
Mixed forest 62,992 19.29 418 23.91 1.24
Coniferous forest 222,829 68.23 1,282 73.34 1.07
Hardwood forest 7,510 2.30 0 0.00 0.00
Field 24,539 7.51 41 2.35 0.31
Paddy 6,859 2.10 7 0.40 0.19
Residential area 315 0.10 0 0.00 0.00

Fig. 5 Landslide susceptibility


index map produced from the
frequency ratio model

The ROC statistic is the area under the curve (AUC) that where Y is the AUC and xi indicates 1-specificity while yi
connects the plotted points. The AUC can be calculated by indicates sensitivity.
the trapezoidal rule of integral calculus (Schneider and The closer the ROC curve approaches the upper left
Pontius 2001): corner, the better the evaluation model is. We can evaluate
X
n the ability of the overall explanation for the models from
Y¼ ðxiþ1  xi Þðyiþ1  yi  yi =2Þ; ð8Þ the size of the AUC. The AUC characterizes the quality of
i¼1 a forecast system by describing the system’s ability to

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Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464 1457

Table 3 Pair-wise comparison matrix for assessing the weights of factors


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Coeff. Weight

1 1.0 2.4 -9.9 2.0 -10.6 7.4 -0.5 -1.3 0.7 -3.3 -0.5 -38.6 1.6 0.3 -1.2
2 0.4 1.0 -4.1 0.8 -4.4 3.1 -0.2 -0.6 0.3 -1.4 -0.2 -16.0 0.7 0.1 -0.5
3 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 3.9 -0.2 0.0 0.1
4 0.5 1.2 -5.0 1.0 -5.4 3.7 -0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.7 -0.3 -19.6 0.8 0.2 -0.6
5 -0.1 -0.2 0.9 -0.2 1.0 -0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 3.7 -0.2 0.0 0.1
6 0.1 0.3 -1.3 0.3 -1.4 1.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -5.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2
7 -1.9 -4.6 18.8 -3.8 20.1 -14.0 1.0 2.5 -1.3 6.3 1.0 73.4 -3.0 -0.7 2.2
8 -0.7 -1.8 7.4 -1.5 7.9 -5.5 0.4 1.0 -0.5 2.5 0.4 28.9 -1.2 -0.3 0.9
9 1.5 3.7 -15.0 3.0 -16.0 11.2 -0.8 -2.0 1.0 -5.0 -0.8 -58.5 2.4 0.5 -1.8
10 -0.3 -0.7 3.0 -0.6 3.2 -2.2 0.2 0.4 -0.2 1.0 0.2 11.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.4
11 -1.9 -4.6 18.6 -3.7 19.9 -13.9 1.0 2.5 -1.2 6.2 1.0 72.9 -3.0 -0.7 2.2
12 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 0.6 1.5 -6.2 1.2 -6.6 4.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -2.1 -0.3 -24.2 1.0 0.2 -0.7
1 Elevation, 2 slope, 3 aspect, 4 distance to drainage, 5 TWI, 6 SPI, 7 soil texture, 8 soil effective thickness, 9 tree type, 10 tree diameter, 11 tree
age, 12 crown density, 13 land-use/land-cover type

anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of pre-defined occurrence and elevation, landslides generally occurred in
‘‘events’’ correctly. Large AUC values (0.5–1.0) indicate the elevation range 501–660 m. Ratios greater than 1 were
ideal models (Yesilnacar and Topal 2005). A perfect distributed at topographic elevations between 501 and
method would have an AUC value of 1.0, and accuracy 660 m. For slope angles above 22, the ratio was [1,
ratings are usually given as 0.9–1.0 = excellent, indicating a high probability of landslide occurrence.
0.8–0.9 = good, 0.7–0.8 = acceptable, 0.6–0.7 = poor, Generally, the shear stress was related to the slope. As the
and 0.5–0.6 = failed (Yilmaz 2009). In this study, the slope angle increased, the shear stress on the slope material
ROC curve was used to assess the performances of the FR, increased. Analyses showed that the FR increased with the
AHP, LR, and ANN models in regard to LSI mapping. slope degree. Slope aspect analyses showed that landslides
Pearson’s correlation analysis was also conducted to were most abundant on east, southeast, southwest, and
examine the similarity between the LSI maps produced by west-facing.
the FR, AHP, LR, and ANN models. The correlation In the case of the relationship between landslide occur-
coefficients ranged from -1 to 1, with values close to -1 rence and distance to drainage, the ratio was [1 in both the
or 1 indicating strong correlation, and values close to 0 area with the distance to drainage 100 m or below and 400
indicating little or no correlation between two models. m or above. The ratio was highest (2.09) when TWI was
Using absolute values, the correlation coefficients were 2.3–4.4, and was still high ([1) even when TWI was in the
generally interpreted as follows: 0–0.2, little correlation; range 4.5–6.6 and 11.1–13.2. The ratio was \1 except when
0.3–0.6, correlation exists; and C0.7, strong correlation. SPI was in the range 3.6–6.7, 7.3–7.7, and 9.3–9.7, and was
highest when SPI was in the range 7.3–7.7. In the case of the
relationship between landslide occurrence and soil factors,
Results the ratio was [1 for sandy loam and soil depths in the range
51–100 cm. The relationships between the tree type, tree
Landslide susceptibility assessment age, tree diameter, and crown density were analyzed as
factors related to the landslide and forest type. The ratio was
Frequency ratio high in mixed forest of soft and hardwood and pine forests.
Regarding the age class, the ratio was high for 21-year-old
Using the probability model, FRs were calculated for 13 or older, except for the age range of more than 51 years.
factors (Table 1). The FRs for each factor type or range Regarding the tree diameter, the ratio was high for C18 cm
were calculated from their relationship to landslide events, in diameter. In addition, the crown density was high in
as shown in Table 2. Table 2 shows the relationship low-density areas. Landslide occurrence values were higher
between landslide occurrence and each factor. First, topo- in mixed forest and coniferous forest (Table 2). Finally, an
graphical factors, such as elevation, slope, and aspect were LSI map was obtained by converting the file into raster
used. In the case of the relationship between landslide format (Fig. 5).

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1458 Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464

Analytic hierarchy process Logistic regression

As mentioned in ‘‘Analytic hierarchy process’’, we As a first step in LR, we converted a map showing the area
assessed landslide susceptibility using AHP with the LR affected by landslides and factor maps (see Table 1) from
weight proposed by Wu (2002). A pair-wise comparison raster to ASCII format. The statistical package SPSS 13.0
matrix of AHP was calculated using ‘‘B,’’ a factor-wise was then used to estimate the correlation between a land-
weight calculated through LR in SPSS after standardi- slide event and landslide-related factors. In this process,
zation of the factor measurements. The weighted values coefficients were mostly estimated based on the maximum
for the 13 factors are shown in Table 3. The CR was likelihood model.
0.004. The weights for each topographical factor were The results are shown in Table 4. The ‘‘significance
evaluated as -1.2 for elevation, -0.5 for slope, and 0.1 probability value’’ was less than 0.05 against all variables
for aspect. Therefore, the priority order was aspect, except ASP (aspect), TWI, SPI, FOR3 (farmland), DEPT
slope, and then elevation. The hydrological factor was (soil effective thickness), LAND1 (mixed forest), and
highest for TWI with a value of 0.1, followed by -0.2 LAND4 (field). This indicates that with the exception of
for SPI; the lowest value was -0.6 for distance to the above seven variables, the other variables had statisti-
drainage. Among soil factors, soil texture had higher cally significant effects on landslides at the 5 % signifi-
weight than soil effective thickness. Therefore, soil tex- cance level.
ture had the higher priority. Forest factors were valued From the analysis results for factors causing landslides,
as -1.8 for weight of type, 0.4 for diameter, 2.2 for age, we found that the higher the elevation and slope were, the
and 0.0 for crown density. Priority was arranged in the higher the likelihood was of a landslide occurring. For
order of age, diameter, crown density, and type. The hydrological factors, a longer distance to drainage and
weight for land-cover factors was evaluated as -0.7. larger SPI and TWI values increased landslide likelihood.
Consequently, aspect, TWI, soil texture, and age for each The soil factor showed a higher possibility in texture than
factor had high priorities. Among these, the items with in effective thickness. The forest factors had higher values
the highest values were soil texture and age. In this in the order of type, age, crown density, and diameter.
research area, therefore, the soil texture and age are Among forest types, mixed soft and hardwood forests
believed to be the most critical factors for landslides. showed the highest possibility of landslide. The soil factors
The LSI for each cell was calculated by multiplying the showed higher landslide possibility by texture than by
weight value for each factor by the raster map for each effective thickness. The land-cover factors showed higher
factor and then combining them. Figure 6 shows the LSI values in the order of field, coniferous forest, cropland, and
map created using ArcGIS 9.3 mixed forest. The regression coefficients calculated for

Fig. 6 Landslide susceptibility


index map produced from the
analytic hierarchy process
model

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Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464 1459

Table 4 Coefficients of logistic regression model


Logistic Standard error Wald chi-square Degree of Significance Exponentiated 95.0 % confidence
coefficient of estimate values freedom probability coefficient interval for Exp (B)
Lower Upper

ELEa 0.0082 0.001 61.144 1 0.000 1.008 1.006 1.010


SLOb 0.0217 0.005 20.061 1 0.000 1.022 1.012 1.032
ASPc 0.0002 0.000 0.174 1 0.677 1.000 0.999 1.001
DRAd 0.0031 0.001 29.881 1 0.000 1.003 1.002 1.004
TWIe 0.0637 0.050 1.625 1 0.202 1.066 0.966 1.175
f
SPI 0.0244 0.040 0.367 1 0.544 1.025 0.947 1.109
FOR 53.697 4 0.000
FOR1g 6.4349 1.202 28.669 1 0.000 623.243 59.112 6,571.125
FOR2h 5.6841 1.160 24.014 1 0.000 294.146 30.285 2,856.892
FOR3i -15.9575 40,192.970 0.000 1 1.000 0.000 0.000
FOR4j 5.0071 1.221 16.830 1 0.000 149.478 13.666 1,634.939
k
DIAM -0.8492 0.380 4.994 1 0.025 0.428 0.203 0.901
AGEl 0.6257 0.224 7.801 1 0.005 1.869 1.205 2.900
DENSm -0.4151 0.133 9.685 1 0.002 0.660 0.508 0.858
TEXTn 4.7086 0.541 75.662 1 0.000 110.896 38.384 320.397
DEPTo -0.0218 0.149 0.021 1 0.884 0.978 0.731 1.311
LAND 33.779 4 0.000
LAND1p -20.4063 11,977.099 0.000 1 0.999 0.000 0.000
LAND2q -2.0739 0.602 11.867 1 0.001 0.126 0.039 0.409
LAND3r -2.2004 0.561 15.381 1 0.000 0.111 0.037 0.333
LAND4s -1.0388 0.592 3.077 1 0.079 0.354 0.111 1.130
Constant -14.0552 1.388 102.515 1 0.000 0.000
a
Elevation, slope, aspect, distance to drainage, TWI, SPI, mixed forest of soft and hardwood, pine forest, ifarmland, jlarch forest, ktree
b c d e f g h

diameter, ltree age, mcrown density, nsandy loam, osoil effective thickness, Pmixed forest, qconiferous forest, rcropland, sfield

each factor in Table 4 were expressed as shown in Eq. (9) (25 neurons), and one output layer was used for a network
by Eq. (7). structure of 13-25-1. Weights were randomly initialized in
Z ¼ 14:0552 þ ð0:0082ELEÞ þ ð0:0217SLOÞ þ ð0:002ASPÞ a small range from -0.25 to 0.25, as proposed by Kavzoglu
(2001). Kavzoglu (2001) also suggested that the minimum
þ ð0:0031DRAÞ þ ð0:0637TWIÞ þ ð0:0244SPIÞ
number of training samples should be more than
þ ð6:4349FOR1Þ þ ð5:6841FOR2Þ þ ð15:9575FOR3Þ 30  Ni  ðNi þ 1Þ, where Ni is the number of input nodes.
þ ð5:0071FOR4Þ þ ð0:8492DIAMÞ þ ð0:6257AGEÞ In this study, 2,983 training samples (landslide occurrence
þ ð0:4151DENSÞ þ ð4:7086TEXTÞ þ ð0:0218DEPTÞ locations: 1,368; no-landslide occurrence locations: 1,615)
þ ð20:4063LAND1Þ þ ð2:0739LAND2Þ were used. The input data were normalized to 0.1–0.9, the
þ ð2:2004LAND3Þ þ ð1:0388LAND4Þ learning rate was set at 0.01, and the initial weights were
randomly selected. The number of epochs was set to 2,500,
ð9Þ
and the root mean-square error (RMSE) goal for the
To predict the possibility of landslide occurrence for all stopping criterion was set to 0.01. The LSI map shown in
pixels in the study area, the probability was calculated from Fig. 8 was drawn using the LSI values for interpretation.
Eq. (9). Finally, an LSI map was obtained by converting
the file into raster format (Fig. 7). Validation and comparison

Artificial neural network To evaluate the performances of the models in analyzing


landslide susceptibility, the success and predication rate
The ANN modeling was computed in a program developed processes were applied (Dietrich et al. 1995; Chung and
in MATLAB 7.0. A three-layer feed-forward network Fabbri 2003; Neuhäuser et al. 2011). The success of all
consisting of an input layer (13 neurons), one hidden layer models was assessed using the correct and incorrect

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1460 Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464

Fig. 7 Landslide susceptibility


index map produced from the
logistic regression model

Fig. 8 Landslide susceptibility


index map produced from the
artificial neural network model

classification results, as shown in Table 5. The success rate maps using ERDAS software. The overall accuracy was
was calculated as follows: first, the LSI values were cal- computed by dividing the total correct (sum of the major
culated from LSI maps in ascending power for the cumu- diagonal) by the total number of pixels in the error matrix
lative total and cumulative total in descending power. Next, (Table 5). The overall accuracy rates of the FR, AHP, LR,
each calculated cumulative value was cross-applied to and ANN LSI maps were generally similar, with mean
analyze the cross point. The cross point is the average point values C65.90 %. The ANN, LR, FR, and AHP models
with the highest R-square for the LSI value. The areas with had overall accuracies of 68.47, 65.51, 65.27, and 64.35 %,
values larger than the LSI value of the cross point were set respectively.
to the areas with high landslide susceptibility (event: 1) and Because the LSI calculated using each model was an
the areas with low landslide susceptibility (event: 0). As a assessment value, it should be validated. As mentioned in
result, the LSI maps were classified into values of 0 and 1 ‘‘Validation and comparison’’, we validated the LSI using a
according to the crossing point. The accuracy was calcu- ROC curve. A ROC graph is a technique for visualizing,
lated by comparing known landslide locations with these organizing, and selecting classifiers based on their

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Table 5 Landslides predicted by each model used for landslide


susceptibility analysis in this research
Predicted (pixels)
0 1 User’s
accuracy (%)

FR 0 96,198 50,652 65.51


1 488 907 65.02
Overall accuracy (%) 65.27
AHP 0 94,859 52,030 64.58
1 501 895 64.11
Overall accuracy (%) 64.35
LR 0 96,286 50,603 65.55
1 536 860 61.60
Overall accuracy (%) 65.51
ANN 0 114,306 49,462 69.80
1 487 995 67.14
Overall accuracy (%) 68.47
The error matrix between occurrence and non-occurrence for land-
slides predicted by each model and for actual landslides in Inje is Fig. 9 Assessment of model performance based on the ROC curves
shown. A value of 1 (0) refers to landslide occurrence (non-
occurrence) manipulation. There have been many studies of landslide
susceptibility using GIS-based modeling. In this study, the
performance. The area under the ROC curve can assess the FR, AHP, LR, and ANN models were compared for
prediction accuracy qualitatively. Figure 9 shows AUC landslide susceptibility assessment.
values indicating the accuracy of the models for landslide Each model has advantages and disadvantages. The FR
prediction. The FR, AHP, LR, and ANN models had AUC model can simply and rapidly be applied, whereas the LR
values of 0.794, 0.789, 0.794, and 0.806, respectively. All model needs data conversion for access by the statistical
models were found to be acceptable, with AUC values of software program and is of limited value when the dataset
0.794–0.806. Similar accuracy was found for all models, is large. In addition, the AHP model generally requires a
although the LSI map produced by the ANN model appeared questionnaire survey to calculate relative weights and
to be slightly more accurate than those generated by other requires a separate software program called Idrisi GIS. In
models. Additionally, the model used for this research this study, the calculation time was reduced by calculating
exhibited an asymptotic significance probability \0.05 and weights via LR with a statistical software program and
lower and upper boundaries of the 95 % asymptotic confi- without a questionnaire survey. The ANN model is time
dence interval [0.5, indicating statistical significance. consuming and requires high computer capacity for actual
Table 6 shows that all four models satisfied both cases. applications, because the internal calculation process can-
We performed a correlation analysis between the FR, not be easily understood and the calculation is intensive
AHP, LR, and ANN models by examining the similarity (Lee et al. 2000).
between the LSI maps produced by each model (Table 7). Various models have been used for landslide suscepti-
The results showed strong correlation between the LR and bility analysis and some previous studies have analyzed or
ANN models, with a correlation coefficient of 0.829. compared one or some of the four models used for this
Correlation coefficients were 0.821 between the AHP and research. However, few studies have analyzed and com-
ANN models, 0.812 between the AHP and LR models, pared all four of the models. The LSI maps created using
0.763 between the FR and LR models, and 0.693 between the FR, AHP, LR, and ANN models were not thought to be
the FR and ANN models. The lowest coefficient, 0.619, significantly different as they had similar accuracy and
was found between the AHP and FR models. high correlation (Table 6; Fig. 9). Lee and Sambath (2006)
reported in their comparative papers that an FR model
(86.97 %) and an LR model (86.37 %) showed higher and
Conclusion and discussion similar accuracy. Akgun (2012) compared LSI maps pro-
duced by LR, AHP, and FR models and reported that the
GIS-based techniques have been generally used as basic AUC values of the ROC curve for these models were 81.0,
analysis tools for spatial management and data 76.4, and 71.0 % respectively. Lim Khai-Wern et al.

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1462 Environ Earth Sci (2013) 68:1443–1464

Table 6 AUC value of the ROC curve in the random sample area used in this study are valid for generalized planning and
Area Std. Asymptotic Asymptotic 95 %
assessment purposes, although they may be less useful at a
errora sig.b confidence interval site-specific scale, where local geologic and geographic
heterogeneities may prevail.
Lower Upper
bound bound Additionally, recent studies of landslides have attempted
using new approaches such as neuro-fuzzy (Oh and Prad-
FR 0.794 0.008 0.0 0.779 0.810 han 2011; Vahidnia et al. 2010), fuzzy logic (Lee 2007;
AHP 0.789 0.008 0.0 0.773 0.805 Pradhan 2010), and back-propagation-based neural net-
LR 0.794 0.008 0.0 0.779 0.810 work models (Pradhan et al. 2010a, b; Yilmaz 2010).
ANN 0.806 0.008 0.0 0.771 0.821 Assessment of landslide susceptibility using more reliable
a
Under a nonparametric assumption and variable analysis models for various regions will aid in
b
Null hypothesis : true area = 0.5 prevention planning, effective forest management, and
land-use planning.
Table 7 The comparison of the correlation coefficient Acknowledgments This work was researched by the supporting
FR AHP LR ANN project to educate GIS experts. Thanks are also extended to two
anonymous reviewers who suggested some improvements to the
FR 1 manuscript.
AHP 0.619 1
LR 0.763 0.812 1
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