Load Forecasting

November 9, 2017 Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 2

 What is Load Forecasting in Power systems?

 Load forecasting is a technique used by power or

energy-providing companies to predict the power/energy

needed to meet the demand and supply equilibrium.

 The accuracy of forecasting is of great significance for

the operational and managerial loading of a utility

company.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 3 November 9, 2017

 Importance of Load Forecasting in Power systems

 Load forecasting is an important component for power

system energy management system.

 Precise load forecasting helps the electric utility to make

unit commitment decisions, reduce spinning reserve
capacity and schedule device maintenance plan properly.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 4 November 9, 2017

 Benefits of Load Forecasting in Power systems

i. Efficient power procurement.

ii. Power system capacity planning.

iii. Optimum power dispatch.

iv. Demand-side electrical energy management.

v. Selling the excess energy.

vi. Fuel-mix selection.

vii. Renewable energy resources planning.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 5 November 9, 2017

 Motivation of Load Forecasting in Power systems

Operation
Trading in
Smart Grid- and
planning by Electricity
Automation
ISOs Market
and Control
and utility
companies

Operating Load
Reserves Real Time Following
Dispatch

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 6 November 9, 2017

 Types of Load Forecasting in Power systems

i. Horizon Time

Types of Load
Forecasting

Short-term
Long-term
Forecasts
Medium Forecasts
(One hour to
Forecasts (Over one year)
one week)
(a month up to
a year)

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 7 November 9, 2017

 Types of Load Forecasting in Power systems

ii. Requirements

Requirements of Load Forecasting

Short-term forecasting
commit enough generating
capacity for meeting the
forecasted demand and for
maintaining the required
spinning reserve
Long-term
Forecasting
is required for planning
future capacity
requirements for the
Medium Forecasting system and preparing
It suits outage and maintenance schedules
maintenance planning, of the generating units
as well as load
switching operation

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 8 November 9, 2017

 Factors for Accurate Load Forecasting in Power systems

Three factors control an accurate load forecasts; which are

i) Weather influence

ii) Time factors

iii) Customer classes

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 9 November 9, 2017

 Factors for Accurate Load Forecasting in Power systems

i) Weather influence

Electric load has an obvious correlation to weather. The most

important variables responsible in load changes are:

 Dry and wet bulb temperature

 Dew point
 Humidity
 Wind Speed / Wind Direction
 Sky Cover
 Sunshine

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 10 November 9, 2017

 Factors for Accurate Load Forecasting in Power systems

ii. Time factors

In the forecasting model, we should also consider time factors

such as:

 The day of the week

 The hour of the day

 Holidays

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 11 November 9, 2017

 Factors for Accurate Load Forecasting in Power systems

iii. Customer classes

 The customers load demands may be broadly divided into

three groups:
➢ Industrial loads.
➢ Residential loads.
➢ Commercial loads.
 Residential loads have the most annual growth rate and the
most seasonal fluctuations. This is due to the widespread
use of weather-sensitive devices such as space heaters and
air conditioners.

 Commercial loads are also characterized by seasonal

fluctuations.

 Industrial loads are considered base loads which contain

little weather dependent variation
Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 12 November 9, 2017
 Short-term Load Forecasting in Power systems

 Short-term forecasting is usually done 24 hours ahead when the

weather forecast for the following day becomes available. This
consists of four parts:

1) Base load (LB), is the portion of load which is found to be

dependent on the overall economic activity and climate
conditions of an area.

2) Weather dependent load (LW), is the weather dependent

component.

3) Special events load (LC), is the load demand added due to special
events or religious and social occasions.

4) LR is a completely random term, the noise.

 Hence the total load demand "peak value" D on the system is

D = LB + LW + LC + LR

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 13 November 9, 2017

 Short-term Load Forecasting in Power systems

 Weather dependent load LW

Daily Peak Demand

×
×
× ×
(kW) ×
×
×
×
× × ×
×
× ×

Temperature = oC

5 15 25 35

Weather Load Model

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 14 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

i. Horizon Time and Accuracy of the Long-Term Load

Forecasting (LTLF)

 The time horizon for long-term load forecasting ranges between a

few weeks and several years. For example, the time horizon is set as
5, 10, 20 years ahead for the planning of power systems, the
schedule of construction of new generating capacity and the
purchase of generating units.

 It is difficult to forecast load demand accurately over a planning

period of this length because there are a large number of factors
affecting load characterized by direct or indirect effect on the
underlying forecasting process. Moreover, all the factors are
uncertain and uncontrollable.

 Therefore, any LTLF by nature is inaccurate.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 15 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

ii. Requirements of the Long-Term Load Forecasting

The long-range plan (LRP) is a management tool and a guide for the
following:

a) The most practical and economical means of serving future loads

while maintaining high quality service to the consumers.

b) An outline for anticipated system changes in terms of major

facilities, demand levels and associated costs.

c) An indication of future system costs for financial planning and

decision making.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 16 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

iii. Methods of the Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting

Long-Term Electric
Load Forecasting

Parametric Methods Artificial Intelligence

based Methods

Trend Analysis

End-Use Modeling

Econometric modeling

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 17 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

iii. Methods of the Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting

A. Parametric Methods

The parametric methods are based on relating load demand to its

affecting factors by a mathematical model. The model parameters
are estimated using statistical techniques on historical data of load
and it's affecting factors.

B. Artificial Intelligence based Methods

Artificial intelligence based methods can solve nonlinear problems,

and because of nonlinear behavior of load, so they can be useful
for long-term load forecasting.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 18 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

iii. Methods of the Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting

A. Parametric Methods

A1- Trend Analysis

 Trend analysis extends past rates of electricity demand into the

future, using techniques that range from hand-drawn straight
lines to complex computer produced curves. Trend analysis
focuses on past changes in electricity demand and uses them to
predict future changes in electricity demand.

 The advantage of trend analysis is that, it is simple, quick and

inexpensive to perform.

 The disadvantages of a trend forecast are that it produces only

one result, future electricity demand. It does not help analyze
why electricity demand behaves the way it does, and it provides
no means to accurately measure how changes in energy prices
or government polities influence electricity demand.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 19 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

iii. Methods of the Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting

A. Parametric Methods

A2- End use Models

 The end-use approach directly estimates energy consumption by
using extensive information on end users, such as applications,
the customer use, their age, sizes of houses, and so on. Thus,
End-use models explain energy demand as a function of the
number of applications in the market.

 Ideally, this approach is very accurate. However, it is sensitive to

the amount and quality of end-use data.

 The disadvantage of end-use analysis is that most end-use

models assume a constant relationship between electricity and
end-use (electricity per appliance). This might hold for over a few
years, but over 10 or 20-year period, energy saving technology or
energy prices will undoubtedly change, and the relationships will
not remain constant.
Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 20 November 9, 2017
 Long-Term Load Forecasting

iii. Methods of the Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting

A. Parametric Methods

A3- Economic Models

 The econometric approach combines economic theory and

statistical techniques for forecasting electricity demand.

 The approach estimates the relationship between energy

consumption (dependent variables) and factors influencing
consumption.

 One of the options in this framework is to aggregate the

econometric approach, when consumption in different sectors
(residential, commercial, industrial, etc.) is calculated as a
function of weather, economic and other variables, and then
estimates are assembled using recent historical data.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 21 November 9, 2017

 Long-Term Load Forecasting

iii. Methods of the Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting

A. Parametric Methods

A3- Economic Models

 The advantage of econometrics are that it provides detailed

information on future levels of electricity demand, why future
electricity demand increases, and how electricity demand is
affected by all the various factors.

 A disadvantage of econometric forecasting is that in order for an

econometric forecast to be accurate, the changes in electricity
remain the same in the forecast period as in the past. This
assumption, which is called constant elasticity, may be hard to
justify especially where very large electricity prices changes,
make customers more sensitive to electricity prices.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 22 November 9, 2017

Example 3.1
Given the following data about the peak load demand Pmax (in p.u.) on a
power system

Year-19.. 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Pmax 7.6 9.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 12.1 13.3 12.7 13 13.8 14.6 14.7

i. Find the equation of the straight-line trend curve.

ii. Calculate the errors in the prediction.
iii. Calculate the standard deviation and variance of the estimate.
iv. Predict the values of the peak load demand in the years 2005, 2010
and 2017.

Prepared by: prof Mah El-Gammal 23 November 9, 2017

Solution of Example 3.1

Peak Load Approach

 The simplest method in the trend analysis approach is to

extrapolate the trend curve, which is obtained by plotting the past
values of the annual peak loads against the years of operation.

 For the case of straight line curve fitting the past values of the
annual peak loads (Y) is plotted against the desired future time in
years (x) as
Y  a  bx
 The two coefficients "a and b" are obtained as

 n   n  a  Y   b x
 n    x i     Yi 
 x Y   i 1   i 1 
 i i
n n

b
i 1 
n x  1
n  x i & Y  1
n  Yi
 n 2 i 1 i 1
 n 2   x i 
 x   i 1 
 i  n
 i 1 
Cont. Solution of Example 3.1
Let x0 be the year 1988
xi Yi xi Yi x i2
 n   n 
 n    x i     Yi  0 7.6 0 0
 x Y    i 1   i 1 
 i i n
 i 1 
b 1 9.5 9.5 1
n  
 n 2   x i2 
 x   i 1  2 9.3 18.6 4
 i  n
 i 1 
3 10.3 30.9 9
868.5  66  142
b 12  0.612 4 11.1 44.4 16
506  66  66
12 5 12.1 60.5 25
a  Y   b x
6 13.3 79.8 36
n n
x  1
n  x i & Y  n1  Yi 7 12.7 88.9 49
i 1 i 1

142 66 8 13.0 104 64

Y   11.83 & x   5.5
12 12 9 13.8 124.2 81
a  11.83  5.5  0.612  8.46 10 14.6 146 100

The regression line 11 14.7 161.7 121

equation becomes 12 12 12 12
 xi  66  Yi  142  xi Yi  868.5  xi2  506
i 1 i 1
Y  8.46  0.612 x i 1 i 1
Cont. Error in each sample
Solution of xi Yi Ei  Yi  8.46  0.612 xi  Ei  E Ei  E 2
Example 3.1
0 7.6 -0.86 -0.8703 0.7574

1 9.5 0.428 0.4177 0.1745

2 9.3 -0.384 -0.3943 0.1555

3 10.3 0.004 -0.0063 0.00004

4 11.1 0.192 0.1817 0.0330

5 12.1 0.58 0.5697 0.3246

6 13.3 1.168 1.1577 1.3403

7 12.7 -0.044 -0.0543 0.0030

8 13.0 -0.356 -0.4206 0.1769

9 13.8 -0.168 -0.1783 0.0318

10 14.6 0.02 0.0097 0.00009

11 14.7 -0.492 -0.5023 0.2523

Error Average Variance of the
11 estimate
12
samples
 Ei 11
 Ei  E 
2
E  i0  0.0103 2  i0  0.2681
12 12
Cont. Solution of Example 3.1

Let x0 be the year 1988

Standard deviation    0.2681  0.5178

The estimate values of the peak load demand in the years 2005, 2010
and 2015 are calculated as follows:

▪ For the year 2005: xi = 2005-1988 = 17 to yield Yi = 18.864 p.u.

▪ For the year 2010: xi = 2010-1988 = 22 to yield Yi = 21.924 p.u.

▪ For the year 2017: xi = 2017-1988 = 29 to yield Yi = 26.208 p.u.