METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)

Published online 4 June 2009 in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/met.149

A method for deriving a future temporal spectrum of heavy

precipitation on the basis of weather patterns in low
mountain ranges
Johannes Franke* and Christian Bernhofer
Department of Meteorology, Technical University of Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Germany

ABSTRACT: A weather-pattern-based multiple regression model to derive future possible changes in the level of the
higher temporal resolution spectrum of heavy precipitation has been developed. The temporal spectrum was described
using statistical precipitation amounts as a function of the event’s duration (1–24 h) and return period (once in 5 yr to
once in 100 yr). The principle of the method consists in projecting a statistical relationship between the parameters of a
transformed Gumbel distribution (theoretical extreme value distribution) and the distribution of classes of objective weather
patterns to time slices in the near future of climate. Changes in distribution parameters were constructed in the model from
changes in the distribution of weather patterns. Possible change signals were calculated for the catchment of the Weißeritz
River (Ore Mountains, Germany) for the time slices centred around 2025 (2011–2040) and 2050 (2036–2065) as changes
versus the reanalyses of the reference period 1961–2000 (May–September). For the climate conditions to be expected in
the near future (IPCC A1B scenario), increases in the amounts of heavy precipitation, i.e. decreases in the return periods
of equal amounts of heavy precipitation from the reference period, were obtained for the entire temporal spectrum covered
by this paper. Overall, the change signals derived on the basis of a concept of weather patterns seem plausible because
they represent a possible continuation of the already observed increase in frequency and intensification of events of heavy
precipitation in the extended study area. Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS heavy precipitation; extreme value statistics; statistical downscaling; objective weather pattern classification;
climate projection; low mountain range; precipitation-related risk management
Received 7 December 2008; Revised 24 March 2009; Accepted 25 March 2009

1. Introduction management (for agriculture, as well as design issues,

Studies of recent regional effects of global climate
change for Saxony (Germany) have shown that the gen-
eral decrease in precipitation amounts during the entire
growing season is combined with an increase in dry
periods (frequency, duration) and heavy precipitation
(≥20 mm per day: five-fold increase for 1971–2000
versus 1961–1990) (Franke et al., 2004; SMUL, 2008).
In addition to being of great importance to agriculture
(drought risk and potential of soil erosion), this rep-
resents a potential for conflict between flood preven-
tion and drinking-water supply with regard to reser-
voir management in the Ore Mountain region and their
foothills in Saxony (Franke et al., 2006). Climate pro-
jections for Saxony have shown that this conflict is
likely to intensify (Enke et al., 2005a, 2006). The recent
frequency of extreme events during summer (e.g. the
flood of the Oder River in 1997 and of the Elbe
River (Becker and Grünwald, 2003) and its tributaries
in the eastern Ore Mountains in 2002 (LfUG, 2004))
and the general great importance for issues of water
* Correspondence to: Johannes Franke, Department of Meteorology,
Technical University of Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorol-
ogy, Germany. E-mail: johannes.franke@forst.tu-dresden.de
e.g. in the construction of reservoirs) emphasize the need
for updated information on changes of extreme precip-
itation. It is necessary to derive statistical probabilities
of rare events of heavy precipitation, both under recent
climate conditions and under the climate conditions to be
expected up to the mid-twenty first century.
The objective of this paper is to introduce a method
of deriving changes in the time spectrum of local heavy
precipitation events. This had to be done without a sim-
ulated time series for precipitation in the near climate
future: Due to its spatial and temporal heterogeneity, pre-
cipitation is marked by being generally difficult to model
(Sillmann, 2003). Therefore, the assumption was made
that the time series of precipitation generated using down-
scaling methods may involve uncertainties, particularly
in mountain ranges. According to Enke (2004) statisti-
cal downscaling methods, such as WETTREG (Spekat
et al., 2007) and STAR (Orlowsky et al., 2007), have
a damping effect on the simulation of heavy precipi-
tation. In contrast, dynamic methods, such as REMO
(Jacob, 2001; Jacob et al., 2008) and CLM (Rockel et al.,
2008), involve particular location-related inaccuracies in
the mapping of simulated precipitation. An evaluation
study conducted by Bachner et al. (2008) of the CLM

Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society

514 J. FRANKE AND C. BERNHOFER

regional climate model with regard to precipitation in

summer shows that the model is unable to reflect ade-
quately the spatial patterns of precipitation observed for
Germany and that the model’s quality is generally low in
regions with complex terrain.
Here, an attempt was made to establish a link between
atmospheric circulation patterns and local heavy pre-
cipitation behaviour for recent climate using classes of
weather pattern and theoretical distributions of extreme
values, with the aim to project that link to time slices
in the twenty first century under different climate condi-
tions. Time series with classes of regionally-valid weather
patterns were used as the master variable. These were
derived using ERA40 reanalyses (Uppala et al., 2005)
and ECHAM5/MPI-OM T63L31 simulations (Roeckner
et al., 2003) of meteorological fields using an objective
method (Enke et al., 2005b). The local heavy precipi-
tation behaviour was described via the statistical heavy
precipitation, ρs , being a function of the duration δ and
the return period τ .
The model was conceived to obtain a more robust
derivation of possible shifts within the temporal spectrum
of local heavy precipitation. Furthermore, attention was
paid to ensure that the method may be applied to other
areas. Figure 1. Altitude distribution of the Weißeritz catchment area with
For the catchment area of the Weißeritz River (east- gauging stations, DEM: 100 × 100 m.
ern Ore Mountains), first, the temporal spectrum of
1 ≤ δ ≤ 24 h and 5 ≤ τ ≤ 100 yr, was calculated and parts of the catchment area of the Weißeritz (Mannsfeld
mapped for ρs (δ, τ ) for the reference period 1961–2000 and Richter, 1995). Although originally built to guar-
in the growing season (May–September). Second, this antee minimum runoff, today the purpose of any reser-
was projected to the time slices of 2025 (2011–2040) voirs/dams in the catchment area is flood protection and
and 2050 (2036–2065), using weather pattern changes drinking-water supply. The land cover in the catchment
constructed, for example, assuming the emission scenario comprises 45% forest, 40% agricultural land, and 15%
A1B (IPCC, 2000). For example, the value ρs (24 h, sealed area (e.g. urban areas and traffic routes), with the
100 yr) is the amount of rain over a duration of 24 h that sealed areas giving way to forest as the terrain elevation
occurs or is exceeded once every 100 yr from a statistical increases (LfUG, 2004).
point of view.
2.2. Data
2. Case study region and data 2.2.1. Precipitation data
2.1. Catchment area of the Weißeritz river
The measured daily amounts of precipitation ρ(t) were
The catchment area of the Weißeritz River covers approx- obtained from the gauging network records of the Ger-
imately 390 km2 . It extends along the northern slope of man Weather Service. These time series were subject to
the Ore Mountains (Saxony, Germany). There is approx- a complex checking algorithm for homogeneity in the
imately 800 m height difference between the maximum climate database of Saxony (see Franke et al., 2004).
headwater elevation level of the Rote Weißeritz and Typical homogeneity checks were based on a reference
Wilde Weißeritz rivers at about 900 m above sea level series (e.g. Alexandersson, 1986), with the advantage that
(ASL) and the confluence of the united Weißeritz with potential outliers in the test series were not removed from
the Elbe near Dresden at 100 m ASL (Figure 1). The the data sample if they were simultaneously registered in
morphology of the north-west-directed catchment area is the reference series. With regard to availability and homo-
characterized by relatively flat elevated areas and deep, geneity, in this work precipitation data from 13 gauging
narrow and steep valleys providing little natural reten- stations (Figure 1) for the period, t, from 1961–2000
tion of precipitation runoff (Liedtke and Marcinek, 2002; (May–September) were used. Equation (1) (in Dyck and
LfUG, 2004). Because the Ore Mountains extend from Peschke, 1995) was applied to the consistent description
southwest to northeast, troughs located in the east of of the temporally higher-resolution precipitation spectrum
Germany are particularly conducive to heavy precipita- to derive the amounts of precipitation ρ(δ, t) for lower
tion (LfUG, 2004). In addition, the frequency of thun- duration levels (1–24 h). The reason for this was the lack
derstorms is already known to have increased for large of higher-resolution precipitation data. Equation (1) uses

Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 FUTURE TEMPORAL SPECTRUM OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
a 13% offset for ρ(t) to correct the systematic underesti-
mation of ρ(δ = 24 h, t) by ρ(t, recorded at 0730–0730
CET (= UTC + 2 h)) (DVWK, 1991; Dyck and Peschke,
1995):

0.25
δ reached with the screening process (Enke et al., 2005b).
ρ(δ, t) = 1.13 ρ(t) × (mm)
1440
with, δ, duration (in minutes)
2.2.2. Weather pattern data
The time series of daily weather patterns available for
the period 1961–2065 was derived using an objective
classification of weather patterns in accordance with
Enke et al. (2005b). The principle of the method consists
in approximating empirically given weather classes by
a combination of meteorological predictor fields from
the ERA40 reanalyses (1961–2000) and recognizing the
field combinations found in the predictor fields simulated
using the global circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM
T63L31 (2011–2065).
For seasons, the daily weather classes are derived from
the range of spatially averaged measuring data for the
temperature or the precipitation (optimization elements).
In this paper the weather pattern time series optimized
with regard to areal precipitation for Saxony (Germany),
divided into eight classes, was used. By clearly assigning
a weather (precipitation) class to each day of the reanal-
ysis period (1961–2000) it was possible to calculate the
mean meteorological field types (predictors, e.g. relative
humidity at the 850 hPa level) from the ERA40 reanal-
yses (Uppala et al., 2005) for individual seasons at each
point of an equidistant, geo-referenced grid. The combi-
nation (or the composite) of mean predictor fields that
best approximate the seasonal precipitation conditions
for each given weather class was selected by screen-
ing. In order to minimize systematic errors, seasonally
Figure 2. Scheme of the model of statistical heavy precipitation.
Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society
515
dependent correction fields were taken into considera-
tion for the predictors (the difference between ERA40
reanalysis and control run ECHAM5/MPI-OM T63L31
for 1961–2000) during screening. A recognition rate of
80% of the given weather (precipitation) classes was
(1)
The construction of the daily weather pattern time series
for the projection period 2001–2065 was based on a
screening discriminant analysis (cluster method). Using
a measure of distance (the root mean square distance,
RMSD), this analysis was used to look among the pre-
dictor fields simulated for each model day for each grid
point, for the combination with the highest similarity (i.e.
min(RMSD)) to the seasonally selected composites for
the past. The weather pattern time series used for the
projection period was based on the output of the global
circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM T63L31 (Roeck-
ner et al., 2003), assuming the emission scenario A1B.
3. Method
In principle, the assumption was made that local (heavy)
precipitation conditions were determined by atmospheric
circulation patterns (weather patterns) and their interac-
tion with local conditions (e.g. topography), which varies
depending on the season and is due to physical rea-
sons. In this context, Kotlarski et al. (2004) and Werner
et al. (2008) proved the relationship between weather pat-
terns and precipitation events in the extended study area
for the recent past climate. To increase the robustness
of a possible change signal, the temporal spectrum of
local heavy precipitation behaviour was used (via station-
related statistics of extreme values) as statistical heavy
precipitation ρs in (mm) depending on the duration δ in
(h) and the return period τ in (yr). The developed statis-
tical model is represented schematically in Figure 2.
Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
516 J. FRANKE AND C. BERNHOFER
3.1. Calculation of the past temporal heavy
precipitation spectrum
The calculation of statistically extreme values of tem-
poral precipitation variability is generally achieved by
adapting a theoretical extreme value distribution to series
separated as a function of duration levels (Bartels et al.,
2005). Using Equation (1), consistent series ρ(δ, t) were
generated for 1–24 h for t from the station-related time
series of daily precipitation amounts ρ(t). According to
Bartels et al. (1997), the calculation of ρs (δ, τ , t) for
5 yr ≤ τ ≤ 3η yr (according to DVWK (1991): 3η: per-
missible extrapolation range) for a length of measured
time series of η ≥ 20 yr is based on an adapted two-
parametric Gumbel distribution (Gumbel, 1967). For this
purpose, by filtering the annual maximum values i, the
series ρ(δ, t) of each station was reduced to annual
series ρi (δ, t, κ) and arranged according to size using the
counter variable κ(κ = 1, . . . , η − 1, η). The estimated
return periods τ̂i (δ, t, κ), referred to as plotting posi-
tions (Fuchs, 1983; Grieser et al., 2007), were calculated
for the related amounts of rain ρi (δ, t, κ) as a function
of κ in accordance with Equation (2):
η + 0.2
τ̂i (δ, t, κ) = (yr) (2)
κ − 0.4
with, η, length of measured time series (yr)
According to DVWK (1991), the regression method
is the most suitable for adapting the Gumbel distribu-
tion to the semi-logarithmic scatter plots [− ln ln (τ̂i (δ,
t, κ)); ρi (δ, t, κ)]. This leads to the use of the Gum-
bel distribution transformed into the linear Equation (3)
(Bartels et al., 1997). Dyck and Peschke (1995) provide
detailed information on the transformation of the theoret-
ical extreme value distribution:
ρs (δ, τ, t) = υ(δ, t) + ω(δ, t)


τ 
× − ln ln (mm) (3)
τ −1
where ρs is statistical heavy precipitation, υ and ω
full distribution parameters, δ duration of the heavy
precipitation event, τ the return period (yr) and t the
observed time slice.
The distribution parameters ω(δ, t) (slope) and υ(δ, t)
(offset) were estimated consistently across all δ levels
using the Least Squares Method (see Storm, 1995). In
order to avoid discontinuities in the rain amount-duration-
frequency lines (see e.g. Figure 5(b)), the distribution
parameters estimated across all δ values were homog-
enized by linear regression based on semi-logarithmic
scatter plots [ln(δ); ω(δ, t)] and [ln(δ); υ(δ, t)]. Bar-
tels et al. (1997, 2005) provide detailed information for
this parameter adjustment. In the model (Figure 2), cur-
rent statistics of extreme values were calculated for the
temporal precipitation spectrum of 1–24 h of the return
periods 5–100 yr on the local scale, using Equation (3)
based on the measured time series of precipitation.
Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society
3.2. Derivation of future level shifts in the temporal
heavy precipitation spectrum
The possible changes in the temporal spectrum of
heavy precipitation were derived on the basis of a
weather-pattern-based projection of a statistical relation-
ship between the distribution parameters ω(δ, t), υ(δ,
t) and the frequency distribution γ (t) of the classes of
weather patterns j  (reanalysis) to future time slices t˜.
The distribution parameters ω and υ were substituted
by for reasons of analogy.
A weather-pattern-based multiple regression model
(Equation (4)) according to von Stroch and Zwiers
(1999) was built to identify the statistical relationship
 (δ, γ (t)). The purpose of this was to isolate the
weather-pattern-related and the local-scale-related param-
eter parts. Equation (4) shows that the regression con-
stant and the partial distribution parameter are only
a function of δ (i.e. indirectly dependent on ρ(δ, t).
In an adapted state (Section 3.3), normalization of the
composite distribution parameters (Equations (4) and (5))
to local (heavy) precipitation characteristics may be
achieved. These local normalization variables materially
affect the areal distribution structure of ρs in the study
area (see e.g. Figure 5(a)). Based on the assumption of
a similarity between the spatial patterns of the recent
past climate and a near future climate, the normaliza-
tion variables were assumed to be stationary in order to
ensure model-related stability. In this context, possible
changes in the level of the local temporal (heavy) precip-
itation spectrum originate from changes in the frequency
of occurrence of macro-scale-related circulation patterns
˜
(weather patterns). Thus, the distribution parameter (δ,
γ (t˜)) projected to t˜ may be constructed from a changed
distribution of weather patterns γ (t˜) using the regression
model. Equation (5) was derived from Equation (4) for
this purpose:
m
 (δ, γ (t)) = A (δ, t) + j  (δ, t) × γj  (t) (4)
j  =1

m
˜
(δ, γ (t˜)) = A (δ, t) + j  (δ, t) × γj˜ (t˜) (5)
j  =1,j˜=1
where is substituted distribution parameters ω and υ,
Aφ regression constant, j class of weather pattern (j = 1,
. . . , m = 8), j partial distribution parameter, γj partial
relative frequency and t time slice (reanalysed observa-
tion) as well as’ is weather-pattern-based reanalysis and
weather-pattern-based projection.
In this paper, the model’s output for the local scale
(Figure 2), was the reanalysis ρs  of the rain amount-
duration-frequency lines derived from Equation (3) for
the temporal precipitation spectrum of 1–24 h of return
periods of 5–100 yr and calculated using Equation (6)
(based on the re-substituted Equation (4)). Based on
this, the possible changes ρ̃s versus the reanalysis
Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 FUTURE TEMPORAL SPECTRUM OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION 517

were derived for time slices in the near future of cli- part for the gauging station at Zinnwald-Georgenfeld
mate using Equation (7) (based on re-substituted Equa- may be calculated using the following function (re-
tion (5)). Changed return periods τ̃ for equal amounts of substituted): Aυ (δ, t) = 3.6615 × δ 0.2527 (coefficient of
heavy precipitation from the reanalysis may be derived determination r 2 = 0.9993) and Aω (δ, t) = 0.6084 ×
using Equation (8): δ 0.2452 (r 2 = 0.9664). For a consistent description of the
local- and weather-pattern-related parameter parts, they
ρs  (δ, τ, γ (t)) = υ  (δ, γ (t)) + ω (δ, γ (t)) are shown versus the altitude H in Figure 3 as an exam-

 ple for ρs  (24 h, 100 yr, γ (t)). A function in the form
τ
× − ln ln (mm) (6) of y(H ) = a − b × cH was adapted to each of the scat-
τ −1
ter plots (r 2 = 0.82206). Figure 3 shows the general
ρ̃s (δ, τ, γ (t˜)) = υ̃(δ, γ (t˜)) + ω̃(δ, γ (t˜)) dominance of the weather-pattern-related (i.e. circulation-

 caused) effect on the construction of the composite dis-
τ
× − ln ln (mm) (7) tribution parameters versus the local-scale-related effect,
τ −1
with a distinct dependence on altitude. The circulation-
τ̃ (δ, γ (t˜)) caused effect changes proportionally, whereas the local-
  −1 −1 scale-related effect changes inversely proportional to the
υ̃(δ, γ (t˜))− height above sea level. From about 500 m ASL in the
   
  ρ  (δ, τ, γ (t))   study area, the weather-pattern-related effect reaches the
= 1 − exp exp s   (yr)(8)
  ω̃(δ, γ (t˜))   70% asymptote and the local-scale-related effect reaches
the 30% asymptote (Figure 3).

3.3. Adaptation and uncertainty of the projection 3.3.2. Uncertainty

model
3.3.1. Adaptation
The temporal and spatial randomness of the occurrence
of heavy precipitation events requires adaptation of the
normalization variables (Section 3.2) over the longest
possible period of data availability. The adaptation made
in this paper over the period 1961–2000 was based on
the availability of re-analyses for the classes of weather
patterns j  and the areal ensemble of precipitation mea-
surements (Section 2.2).
The distribution parameters υ and ω were used to
substitute the distribution parameter, (below) along the
lines of Section 3.2.
The weather-pattern-related parameter part is separated
in turn into (δ, t) by calculating the partial distribution
parameter j  (δ, t) (similar to (δ, t) in Section 3.1) and
weighting it with the relative frequency of occurrence
γj  (t) of the classes of weather patterns j  . This is based
on time series of precipitation ρ(t) filtered according to
the temporal occurrence of j  in ρj  (t). The following
must apply to the adaptation period in Equation (4):
 (δ, γ (t)) = (δ, t). Therefore, the local-scale-related
parameter part, A (δ, t), is calculated as a remainder
using Equation (9):
A model uncertainty was derived by comparing results
obtained directly from precipitation measurements (Equa-
tion (3)) with model results (Equation (6), control run).
The control run is commonly calculated for a period
of the past outside the adaptation period. As a com-
promise between the limited availability of reanalysis
data and the need for long time series, the adaptation
period was divided in this paper into overlapping periods
of 3 × 20 yr, i.e. 1961–1980, 1971–1990, 1981–2000.
Figure 4 shows uncertainty-duration-frequency lines in
(%) as areal means for the study area over the three sub-
periods. It reveals that the model underestimated results
from Equation (3) by 2–7%, with the amount of under-
estimation depending on δ and τ . As a general rule, the
model error for individual duration levels is proportional
to the return period. The error level within the return peri-
ods is three times larger. The uncertainty for the duration


m
A (δ, t) = (δ, t) − j  (δ, t) × γj  (t) (9)
j  =1

substitutes the full distribution parameters υ, ω (from

Equation (3))

In order to describe consistently the local-scale-related

Figure 3. Local-scale-related (dots, dashed curve) and weather-pattern-
parameter part, a power function was adapted to the related (triangles, solid curve) parameter parts (%) as a function of
remainders calculated over the spectrum 1–24 h: y(δ) = altitude in the Weißeritz catchment area, example of ρs  (24 h, 100 yr),
c × δ b . For example, the local-scale-related parameter 1961–2000 (May–September).

Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
518 J. FRANKE AND C. BERNHOFER
Figure 4. Model uncertainty-duration-frequency lines (%) of the
Weißeritz catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr, area mean.
range of 1 ≤ δ < 9 h was proportional to the duration δ,
whereas for 11 < δ ≤ 24 h it was inversely proportional.
A reversal of error development takes place within the
range of 9 ≤ δ ≤ 11 h. A reason for this behaviour is
that by reanalysing middle duration events, tendentious
uniform distributions (on average) over the eight weather
classes were calculated by the model, in contrast to the
events of smaller and larger duration, respectively. This
can also be attributed to the spatial generalization degree
of the objective weather pattern classification. It can be
assumed that a use of fuzzy time series of weather pattern
entails a minimization of the model uncertainties (com-
ments in Section 5).
3.4. Calculation of areal precipitation in the study area
To demonstrate the areal distribution structure of statis-
tical heavy precipitation ρs in the study area, an areal
distribution was calculated, as an example, for the reanal-
ysis of ρs (24 h, 100 yr) in accordance with Franke et al.
(2008) (Figure 5(a)). The method takes into consideration
the orographic effects on precipitation, i.e. the formation
of a vertical gradient (Equation (10) in the example), as
well as the windward and leeward effects, in a manner
true to scale. The objective calculation of the local-scale
windward and leeward effects, which was achieved by
combining wind climatology with the geometry of the
terrain, has modified the spatially superposed orographic
effect (vertical gradient) on a local scale (Franke et al.,
2008):
   (Figures 6(a) and 7(a)). Lower increases were calculated

 91.4 mm + 5.6 mm × H

 100 m
 H :≤ 550 m ASL
ρs  (H ) = (mm)



 The change signal obtained may also be interpreted
 122.2 mm
H :> 550 m ASL
(10)
Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society
4. Results and discussion
Figure 5(a) shows, as an example, the areal distribution
pattern in the study area of ρs  (24 h, 100 yr) (reanalysis),
i.e. a heavy precipitation event of 24 h duration based
on the data for 1961–2000 (May–September), which,
from a statistical point of view occurs or is exceeded
once every 100 yr. In accordance with the topographical
structure (Figure 1) Equation (10) (r 2 = 0.7105) explains
that 71% of the spatial variance (approximately. 100 ≤
ρs  ≤ 125 mm) is due to proportional dependence on the
altitude. In this regard, the effect of the Ore Mountains as
a barrier is associated with a continuous 5.6 mm increase
in amounts of 24 h heavy precipitation per 100 m only
up to an altitude of 550 m ASL (Equation (10)). Based
on the regionalization method applied (Section 3.4),
rain amounts above 125 mm were found for objectively
calculated windward areas. By comparison, the return
period for such amounts of precipitation in the Black
Forest (a low mountain range in south-western Germany)
is 10 yr (Kunz, 2003).
For the temporal spectrum of statistically heavy pre-
cipitation (1–24 h for 5–100 yr) covered by this paper,
reanalyses of rain amount-duration-frequency lines are
shown as areal means in Figure 5(b) and their areal stan-
dard deviations are shown in Figure 5(c). The spatial
variance of statistical heavy precipitation in the study area
was different, depending on an event’s duration and its
return period. In this regard, it appears that the orographic
intensification of larger (i.e. events of longer duration)
and more rarely occurring events decreases for the benefit
of the convective influence if the events become smaller
(i.e. of shorter duration) and occur more frequently
(Figure 5(b) and (c)). The reanalyses for the period of
1961–2000 (May–September) varied within the range
of 23.5 ≤ ρs  ≤ 125 mm (derived from Figure 5(b) and
(c)) and were used in this paper as a reference for pos-
sible changes in the time slices of 2025 and 2050. The
time slices are 30 yr averaging periods of 2011–2040
and 2036–2065 for statistical safety, despite the transient
character of climate in the twenty first century.
With regard to future possible changes in the higher
temporal resolution spectrum of statistical heavy pre-
cipitation, positive and non-linear level shifts were cal-
culated assuming an A1B scenario. In this regard, it
seems that the change in signal is generally inversely
proportional to the return period for every event duration
(Figures 6(a) and 7(a)). Events of heavy precipitation that
are smaller and occur more frequently tend to be subject
to the biggest relative changes versus the reanalysis (ref-
erence) with increases by between c. 1.5% (2025) and c.
4.5% (2050), whereas comparable changes that are less
pronounced are possible for events of longer duration
for events of medium duration. The consideration of the
uncertainty range (2–7%, Figure 4) would lead to a gen-
eral intensification of the relative change signal.
as a changed return period of the rain amount-duration-
frequency lines for the reference period (Figure 5(b)).
Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 FUTURE TEMPORAL SPECTRUM OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION 519

(a)

(b) (c)

Figure 5. (a) Areal distribution of ρs  (24 h, 100 yr) (mm) of the Weißeritz catchment area, 1961–2000 (May–September), DEM: 500 × 500 m.
(b) Rain amount-duration-frequency lines (mm) of the Weißeritz catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr, 1961–2000 (May–September),
reanalysed area mean. (c) Standard deviation-duration-frequency lines (mm) of the Weißeritz catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr,
1961–2000 (May–September), reanalysed area mean.

Accordingly, the resulting return periods for equal
amounts of rain in the near future are shorter in the study
area (Figures 6(b) and 7(b)). For example, it is possible
that for the mean amount of rain of a ρs  (24 h, 100 yr)
event of c. 117 mm (Figure 5(b)), the return period may
be reduced to c. 91 (2025) and 78 (2050) yr, respec-
tively. Under current climate conditions, which reflect an
already ongoing change, such trends in the probabilities
of exceeding threshold values have already been identi-
fied for Germany (Schönwiese et al., 2005; Trömel and
Schönwiese, 2007).
The change signal obtained for the temporal spec-
trum of statistical heavy precipitation covered by this
paper may be used to conclude that the continuing gen-
eral warming trend in the extended study area (Franke
et al., 2004; Enke et al., 2005a, 2006; SMUL, 2008)
is probably accompanied by intensification of primarily
thermally-induced convective heavy precipitation. Thus,
more frequent events of shorter duration will occur and
events of longer duration will be associated with addi-
tional orographic intensification. The latter may become
increasingly important if the already observed increases
in frequency of occurrence of weather patterns con-
ducive to heavy precipitation events of longer duration
in the study area (e.g. troughs over Central Europe with
Vb–paths (see Blüthgen and Weischet, 1980)) continue
in the future.
Overall, the change signals obtained indicate a possible
non-linear continuation of the already observed increase
in frequency and intensification of heavy precipitation

Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
520 J. FRANKE AND C. BERNHOFER

(a) (b)

Figure 6. (a) Changed statistical heavy precipitation (%) for 2025 (2011–2040, scenario A1B) versus 1961–2000 (reanalysis) of the Weißeritz
catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr, May–September, projected area mean. (b) Changed return period (yr) for 2025 (2011–2040,
scenario A1B) versus 1961–2000 (reanalysis) of the Weißeritz catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr, May–September, projected
area mean.

(a) (b)

Figure 7. (a) Changed statistical heavy precipitation (%) for 2050 (2036–2065, scenario A1B) versus 1961–2000 (reanalysis) of the Weißeritz
catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr, May–September, projected area mean. (b) Changed return period (yr) for 2050 (2036–2065,
scenario A1B) versus 1961–2000 (reanalysis) of the Weißeritz catchment area, spectrum: 1–24 h and 5–100 yr, May–September, projected
area mean.

events in the extended study area (Grieser and Beck,
2002; Franke et al., 2004; Trömel and Schönwiese, 2007;
SMUL, 2008).
The method was successfully tested for its applicability
to other areas for the catchment of the Zwickauer Mulde
(western Ore Mountains, Saxony, Germany) (see Görner
et al., 2008).
5. Summary and conclusion
The study yields plausible results deriving future possi-
ble changes of heavy precipitation with higher tempo-
ral resolution by a multiple regression model based on
weather patterns. This was achieved by projecting statisti-
cal relationships between the parameters of a transformed
Gumbel distribution of extreme values and distributions
of classes of objective weather patterns to time slices
in the near future derived from global climate mod-
els. Local-scale-related and weather-pattern-related (i.e.
macro-scale-related) parts in the parameters were sepa-
rated for this purpose, and thus the changes in distribution
parameters were constructed from changes in the distribu-
tion of weather patterns. Because the local-scale-related
parameter parts were assumed to be stationary, it was
ensured that the areal distribution patterns for statistical
amounts of heavy precipitation in the study area were
nearly time-invariant. As the method conserves local-
scale variability in precipitation patterns, it produces
results that appear realistic and applicable. The basic
objective of applying the concept of weather patterns
was to avoid the inaccuracies of simulated time series
for precipitation, particularly in low mountain ranges. In
this context, it has been shown that the local behaviour
of heavy precipitation may be well described within a
2–7% uncertainty range (for areal means) using region-
ally valid, objective weather patterns. Direct comparison
of daily precipitation measurements with the reanalysis
of classes of weather patterns enabled the conclusion to

Copyright  2009 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 16: 513–522 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/met
 FUTURE TEMPORAL SPECTRUM OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
be drawn that the model error for the study area was also
caused by a spatial degree of generalization involved in
objectively deriving classes of weather patterns.
Future optimization of the regression model based on
weather patterns might deal with the statistical relation-
ship between the parameters of distributions of extreme
values and the distributions of classes of objective
weather patterns as a fuzzy problem. The background for
this is that, firstly, daily weather conditions for a spatial
section may be influenced by several classes of weather
patterns (Sillmann, 2003) and, secondly, the objective
classification of weather patterns according to Enke et al.
(2005b) may yield fuzzy allocations to individual weather
classes per time step (day).
As far as risk management is concerned, combining
current and projected statistics of extreme values allows
the option of adapting management regulations in a
manner that is both promptly and spatially relevant.
Possible applications exist in agriculture, forestry and
water management (e.g. of reservoirs) of catchments in
low mountain ranges.
Acronyms
h Hour(s)
yr Year(s)
CET Central European Time
CLM Climate Local Model
DEM Digital Elevation Model
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
REMO Regional Atmosphere Model
STAR Statistical Regional Model
WETTREG Weather pattern based
Regional model
ECHAM5/MPI-OM Atmosphere-Ocean coupled
T63L31 General Circulation Model
(AOGCM)
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the German Weather Service
for the provision of daily precipitation data and the
Climate & Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH for
the provision of daily weather pattern data. In the context
of the projects ‘EMTAL’ (grant number: 02 WT 0337)
and ‘LandCaRe 2020’ (grant number: 01 LS 05104) this
study was funded by the German Federal Ministry of
Education and Research.
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