B H

D
A F
G
I
C
E
M W

M W
A B 1 2

D C 4 3
 B D E

A H
C F G
 x
z
y

v1 v2
0111
1001
1000
1100
v3 v4
 x
y
u v
 E
C
B

F D
A
 blue

red
green

green blue
Dog Dog Dog
 outside

inside
 2
1
4
3
 Chuck
Alice
Tom
Martha
Michael
Sarah
John
Jane
Mergatroid

Chuck
Alice
Tom
Martha
Michael
Sarah
John
Jane
Mergatroid
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3
 0 0
1 1
OUT
IN
... ...

N−1 N−1
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3
IN
0

IN
1

IN
2

IN
3

OUT OUT OUT OUT

0 1 2 3
 levels
0 1 2 3
IN OUT
0 0
000
IN OUT
1 1
001
IN OUT
2 2
010
IN OUT
3 3
011
IN OUT
4 4
100
IN OUT
5 5
101
IN OUT
6 6
110
IN OUT
7 7
111
IN OUT
0 0
000
IN OUT
1 1
001
IN OUT
2 2
010
IN OUT
3 3
011
IN OUT
4 4
100
IN OUT
5 5
101
IN OUT
6 6
110
IN OUT
7 7
111
IN OUT
0 0

IN OUT
1 1

IN OUT
2 2

IN OUT
3 3

IN OUT
4 4

IN OUT
5 5

IN OUT
6 6

IN OUT
7 7

IN0 OUT0

IN1 OUT1
IN OUT
0 0

IN OUT
1 1

IN OUT
2 2

IN OUT
3 3

IN OUT
4 4

IN OUT
5 5

IN OUT
6 6

IN OUT
7 7
 1 5
0 2

4 6
7 3

1 5
0 2

4 6

7 3
 blue red
1 5
red 0 2 red

4 6 blue
blue
7 3
blue red
Julie Bill

Bob
 underwear shirt

left sock right sock

pants tie

left shoe right shoe belt

jacket
...
sequence−counting
problems
bijection
S

all counting problems

 car
location

C
 player’s
initial
guess
A
car
location B

A C

B B

C
C

C
 door
player’s revealed outcome
initial
guess B (A,A,B)
A
C (A,A,C)
car
location B C
(A,B,C)

A C B
(A,C,B)
C
(B,A,C)
A

B A (B,B,A)
B

C (B,B,C)
C A
C (B,C,A)
B
(C,A,B)
A
A
(C,B,A)
B
A (C,C,A)
C
(C,C,B)
B
 door switch
player’s revealed outcome
initial wins?
guess B (A,A,B)
A
C (A,A,C)
car
location B C
(A,B,C) X

A C B
(A,C,B) X
C
(B,A,C) X
A

B A (B,B,A)
B

C (B,B,C)
C A
C (B,C,A) X
B
(C,A,B) X
A
A
(C,B,A) X
B
A (C,C,A)
C
(C,C,B)
B
 door switch
player’s revealed outcome
initial wins?
guess 1/2 B (A,A,B)

1/3 A (A,A,C)
1/2 C
car
1/3 B C 1
location (A,B,C) X

A C B 1
1/3 (A,C,B) X
1/3 C 1
(B,A,C) X
A
1/3
B 1/2 A (B,B,A)
1/3 B
1/3 (B,B,C)
1/3 1/2 C
C A 1
C (B,C,A) X
1/3 B 1
(C,A,B) X
1/3 A A 1
(C,B,A) X
1/3 B
1/2 A (C,C,A)
C 1/3
1/2 (C,C,B)
B
 door switch
player’s revealed outcome probability
initial wins?
guess 1/2 B (A,A,B) 1/18

1/3 A (A,A,C) 1/18

1/2 C
car
1/3 B C 1
location (A,B,C) X 1/9

A C B 1
1/3 (A,C,B) X 1/9
1/3 C 1
(B,A,C) X 1/9
A
1/3
B 1/2 A (B,B,A) 1/18
1/3 B
1/3 (B,B,C) 1/18
1/3 1/2 C
C A 1
C (B,C,A) X 1/9
1/3 B 1
(C,A,B) X 1/9
1/3 A A 1
(C,B,A) X 1/9
1/3 B
1/2 A (C,C,A) 1/18
C 1/3
1/2 (C,C,B) 1/18
B
 2 1 3

6 7 5 9 4 8

A B C
 1/3 A 1/9
1
5 1/3 B 1/9
1/3 1/3
9 B 1/9

2 1/3 A 1/9 A wins with

1
6 1/3 5 1/3 A 1/9
probability
1/3 5/9
7 9 B 1/9
1/3 A 1/9
1/3 1
5 1/3 A 1/9
9 1/3
B 1/9
die A winner probability
die B of outcome
 1/3 C 1/9
3
4 1/3 C 1/9
1/3 1/3
8 C 1/9
B wins with
1 1/3 B 1/9 probability
3 5/9
5 1/3 4 1/3 B 1/9
8 1/3
9 C 1/9
1/3 B 1/9
1/3 3
4 1/3 B 1/9
8 1/3
B 1/9
die B winner probability
die C of outcome
 1/3 C 1/9
2 6 1/3 A 1/9
1/3
1/3 7 A 1/9
C wins with
3 1/3 C 1/9 probability
2 5/9
4 1/3 6 1/3 A 1/9
8 7 1/3
A 1/9
1/3 C 1/9
1/3
2 6 1/3
C 1/9
7 1/3
C 1/9
die C winner probability
die A of outcome
 set of all people
in the world

A
B

set of MIT set of people who

students live in Cambridge
 WW 1/3
2/3
W
1/3 WLW 1/18
W
1/2 L 1/3
W L 1/9
2/3 WLL

2/3 LWW 1/9

W
L
1/3
1/2 W L 1/3 LWL 1/18

L
2/3 LL 1/3
1st game outcome event A: event B: outcome
outcome 2nd game 3rd game win the win the
outcome outcome series? 1st game? probability
 1/4
H
1/2
1/2
fair T 1/4
1/2

1/2
unfair
H
1/2
event A: event B: event
outcome chose outcome A B?
choice of result probability fair coin? heads?
coin flip
 result of event B:
event A:
100 flips flipped
coin given given fair
coin? all heads? probability
to you
all heads 100
X X p/2
100
fair coin 1/2
100
p 1−1/2
100
some tails X p−p/2
1−p

trick coin 100

1/2
X 1−p
all heads
 .09
pos
.9

.1
yes neg .01
.1

.9 .27
no pos
.3

.7
person neg
.63
has X?
test result outcome event A: event B: event A B?
has
probability disease? test
positive?
sample space

A
C
B
 E2
E1

E4
E3
 A

B
 1/2 HH 1/4
H

1/2 T
1/2 HT 1/4
H

TH 1/4
1/2
T
H
1/2
T TT 1/4
1/2
event A: event B: event
coin 1 probability coins 1st coin
coin2 A B?
match? heads?
 p HH p2
H

p
T
1-p HT p(1-p)
H

p TH p(1-p)
T
H
1-p
T 1-p TT (1-p) 2
coin 1 event A: event B: event
coin 2 probability coins 1st coin
match? A B?
heads?
 1
Prob. that
"same" wins

1/2

0 1
p
 # peeked at result probability

choice of x p=L lose L/2n

1/2
p=H
L/n win L/2n
1/2
x too low
p=L win (H−L)/2n
1/2
x just right
(H−L)/n p=H
1/2 win (H−L)/2n
x too high 1/2 p=L
win (n−H)/2n
(n−H)/n
p=H
1/2
lose (n−H)/2n
 Nick right? Dan’s payoff probability

Eric right? Y $0 1/8

1/2
Y 1/2 N
Dan right? 1/2 $1 1/8

1/2 Y $1 1/8
Y N 1/2
1/2
1/2 N $4 1/8

Y −$2 1/8
1/2
1/2
N Y 1/2 N
1/2 −$2 1/8

1/2
Y −$2 1/8
N 1/2
1/2 N $0 1/8
 Nick right? Dan’s payoff probability

Eric right? Y $0 0
0
Y 1
Dan right? 1/2 N $1 1/4

1/2 Y $1 1/4
Y N 1
1/2 0
N $4 0

Y −$2 0
1/2 0
N Y 1 N
1/2 −$2 1/4

1/2
Y −$2 1/4
N 1
0 N $0 0
probability

success!

0 # of events n
that happen
=X
 Ex(X)

tails
probability

0 # of events n
that happen
=X
 1 inch

Cliff of Doom

oops...
Cliff of Doom Cliff of Disaster

1/2 1/2
1/2 1/2 1/2

1/2 1/2
1/4
1/8 1/2 1/2
1/16
... ...
Cliff of Cliff of
Doom Disaster

0 n w
Cliff of Cliff of
Doom Disaster

0 n w
 w
upward
swing
n (too late!)

gambler’s
wealth
downward
drift

time