Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sector Stream – Dairy
Final Report
October 2011; v1.21
www.foodandbeverage.govt.nz
This information was prepared by Coriolis solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any third party without prior written consent.
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It draws conclusions on potential industry strategic directions
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It forms a part of the wider Food & Beverage Information Project
and will be updated annually.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
Contents 4
Glossary of terms 5
Methodology & data sources 6
F&B IP Overview 7
Summary & conclusions 9
Sector overview 15
Milk powder 45
Appendices 58
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
This report uses the following acronyms and abbreviations
PAGE 5
METHODOLOGY & DATA SOURCES
Data was from a variety of sources, and has a number of identified limitations
- This report uses a range of information sources, both qualitative - Coriolis makes no representation, warranty or guarantee,
and quantitative. whether express or implied, as to the quality, accuracy,
reliability, currency or completeness of the information
- The numbers in this report come from multiple sources. While we provided in the report.
believe the data are directionally correct, we recognise the
limitations in what information is available. - All trade data analysed in all sections of the F&B Information
- In many cases different data sources disagree (e.g. project are calculated and displayed in US$. This is done for a
Statistics New Zealand vs. FAO vs. UN Comtrade). range of reasons:
- Many data sources incorporate estimates of industry 1. It is the currency most used in international trade
experts. 2. It allows for cross country comparisons (e.g. vs. Denmark)
- As one example, in many cases, the value and/or volume 3. It removes the impact of NZD exchange rate variability
recorded as exported by one country does not match the 4. It is more comprehensible to non‐NZ audiences (e.g. foreign
amount recorded as being received as imports by the investors)
counterparty [for understood reasons]. 5. It is the currency in which the United Nations collects and
tabulates global trade data
- In addition, in some places, we have made our own clearly noted
estimates. - The opinions expressed in this report represent those of the
industry participants interviewed and the authors. These do not
- Coriolis has not been asked to independently verify or audit the necessarily represent those of Coriolis Limited or the New
information or material provided to it by or on behalf of the Zealand Government.
Client or any of the data sources used in the project.
- The information contained in the report and any - If you have any questions about the methodology, sources or
commentary has been compiled from information and accuracy of any part of this report, please contact Tim Morris, the
material supplied by third party sources and publicly report’s lead author at Coriolis, on +64 9 623 1848
available information which may (in part) be inaccurate or
incomplete.
PAGE 6
F&B INFORMATION PROJECT
The New Zealand Food & Beverage Information Project is designed to be the foundation of facts and figures on
which a range of audiences can build
Structure of the New Zealand Food & Beverage Information Project
(2011)
PAGE 7 Note: Every year two subsectors are completed in more detail. Seafood and Nutraceuticals in 2011
DAIRY SECTOR ANALYSIS
This analysis of the New Zealand dairy sector forms a part of the wider Food & Beverage Information Project
Structure of the New Zealand Food & Beverage Information Project
(2011)
PAGE 8
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
Contents 4
Glossary of terms 5
Methodology & data sources 6
F&B IP Overview 7
Summary & conclusions 9
Sector overview 15
Milk powder 45
Appendices 58
DAIRY – SITUATION
New Zealand competes with other dairy cooperatives to supply bulk dairy ingredients to corporate consumer‐
focused dairy manufacturers primarily in dry/tropical areas
New Zealand - Competitors are primarily cooperatives in developed Western
countries; South America cooperatives are an emerging threat
- New Zealand currently “on a high” in dairy
- While the BRIC3 countries are 4 of the top 5 milk producers
- Surging US$ prices in the world, they are not yet major exporters as they
- Growing demand in China, SE Asia and NA/ME/CA1 effectively consume all they produce
- However likely inflating a bubble that will ultimately pop - New Zealand does not directly compete with major corporate
dairy players (e.g. Nestle, Kraft, Abbott)
- New Zealand is the 8th largest milk producing country in the world
and accounts for 2.6% of global milk production
- New Zealand produces a similar amount of milk as other Consumers/Markets
temperate countries its size (e.g. Italy, the UK, France) - Dairy consumption is flat in the developed world; developed
- Small population; exports the excess temperate countries (e.g. Canada, Japan) typically produce all the
milk they consume and use trade barriers to protect their dairy
- New Zealand exports transport friendly dairy ingredients (e.g. farmers; therefore these markets are closed to New Zealand
milk powder)
- Dairy consumption is growing in the developing world faster than
- 95%+ of New Zealand milk supply is controlled by Fonterra, a domestic production; in addition, dry and tropical countries are
farmer‐owned cooperative; Fonterra was formed in 2001 in a unable to efficiently produce all the milk they consume, therefore
government sanctioned mega‐merger of dairy cooperatives and they import bulk dairy ingredients
the government‐mandated export dairy board monopsony2
- Corporate consumer‐focused dairy manufacturers buy ingredient
Competitors dairy and transform ingredients into consumer dairy‐based foods
(e.g. yoghurt)
- As regional dairy collection is a natural monopsony, dairy farmers
in all developed countries control milk collection and primary - In Australasia (AU/NZ), Fonterra (but not other key NZ milk
processing through farmer‐owned cooperatives processor/exporters) sells significant amounts of branded
consumer dairy products to consumers4
- New Zealand competes with other dairy cooperatives to supply
bulk dairy ingredients
PAGE 10 1. North Africa Middle East, Central Asia; 2. A monopsony is a monopoly on buying not selling; 3. BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India and China; 4 Fonterra also sells about NZ$1b worth of
Anmum outside Australasia
DAIRY – QUANTITATIVE SCORECARD
The New Zealand dairy sector has performed well in the last year driven by surging prices in Asia
Turnover NZ$18,800m N/A 6% +$1,100 East Asia 26% $2,059 16% 75% +$884
SE Asia 20% $1,585 11% 42% +$469
Exports US$7,836m 12% 40% +$2,231 S Asia/Ind. Sub 5% $397 18% 76% +$171
NA/ME/CA 17% $1,309 18% 28% +$284
Enterprises 240 3% 2% +15 SS Africa 4% $306 27% 44% +$94
S America/Other 10% $779 9% 33% +$195
Employment 11,690 1% 3% +330 Europe 6% $448 3% 11% +$43
North America 6% $504 3% ‐10% ‐$56
Turnover per $1.6m N/A1 N/A1 N/A1
employee Australia/PI 6% $450 13% 49% +$148
Whole milk powder $3,072 16% 64% +$1,197 Fonterra 15,6002 $16,726m Australia Murray Gouldburn (coop)
Skim milk powder $1,023 14% 23% +$194 GF Meadow Fresh 1,000 A$441m California Cal Dairies Coop
Butter $1,545 12% 63% +$596 Open Country 196 $497m Other coop
Cheese $1,023 8% 20% +$168 Westland 350 $422m Germany Nordcontor Co‐operative
Casein $476 0% ‐10% ‐$51 Tatua 194 $166m Other coop
Whey $419 35% 19% +$66 Synlait 160 $150m Netherlands Friesland Co‐operative
UHT milk $127 16% 43% +$38 France Sodiaal
Lactose $33 8% ‐17% ‐$7 Other coops
Other $117 8% 36% +$31 Denmark Arla Coop
PAGE 11 1. Cannot be calculated due to Statistics NZ data issues; will be calculated in future years; 2. Of which 9,700 are in New Zealand; Source: various company annual reports; various
company websites; Kompass; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – SWOT ANALYSIS
The global competitive environment will likely become more competitive going forward
Strengths Weaknesses
‐ Low cost pasture‐based dairy production system ‐ All our eggs in one basket (Fonterra); Fonterra is limited in its ability to add value due
to the risks associated with competing with its own customers
‐ National champion Fonterra with resources to address global markets and
opportunities ‐ No rich dairy cultural heritage or tradition to draw from for new product
development (vs. France or Italy)
‐ Growing market leadership position in Australasia/Oceania
‐ Small milk producer in an absolute sense (~2.6% global production)
‐ Limited defensibility of commodity and ingredient position
‐ Significant trade barriers limiting New Zealand access to North America and Europe
‐ Farmgate price mixes returns on milk with returns on Fonterra ownership leading to
dairy land price increases leading to decreased international competiveness
Opportunities Issues/Threats/Risk
PAGE 12 Source: various company annual reports; various company websites; Interviews; Coriolis
DAIRY – POTENTIAL STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS
Research suggests six potential “big picture” strategic directions for the New Zealand dairy industry
PAGE 13 Source: Interviews; Coriolis
DAIRY – POTENTIAL AREAS FOR INVESTMENT
Potential areas for new and/or external investment primarily transforming ingredients rather than producing
more ingredients
- Farmers control 97% of New Zealand dairy industry limiting - Domestic dairy market is small, saturated, and low growth
opportunities for external investment - High levels of dairy consumption per capita
- Farmers own Fonterra, Westland and Tatua - Dominated by two key players: Fonterra and Goodman
- “[Dairy cooperatives have] three main objectives: (1) Fielder/Meadow Fresh, each with fluid milk core
maximise the milk price paid to farmer members, (2) to - Limited domestic product innovation; domestic innovation
process and market the milk collected every day from typically copied from other markets (e.g. yoghurt)
member farms and (3) to maintain farmer control” - Growing store brands
- Low opportunities for new investment in ingredient dairy - Opportunities for growth in smaller segments of export oriented
(particularly milk powder) specialty, niche dairy products that “fly under the radar”
- Globally milk collection/disposal is dominated by farmer - Shredded cheese (e.g. Grate Kiwi, Milligans)
owned co‐operatives (typically marginal cost sellers)
- Single serve butter (e.g. Canary)
- Processing of raw dairy into simple ingredients is a
relatively high capital, low return sector - Premium specialty cheese (e.g. Whitestone)
- New Zealand already fully capitalised and saturated with
ingredient dairy processing plants - Strong opportunities for growth and investment in processed
foods that contain significant dairy ingredients (discussed in
processed foods document)
- Poor financial performance to date of post deregulation new
market entrants in milk powder & other primary ingredient - Chocolate
- Majority share in Open Country acquired by Talley family - Infant formula
following poor performance; Olam (Singapore) also a - Frozen bakery (esp. croissants)
shareholder (threatened to quit due to low returns) - Dairy nutraceuticals (e.g. colostrum)
- Majority share in Synlait acquired by Shanghai Bright
following failed public listing
- Oceania Dairy assets purchased by Synlait
- Arapuni still “in development”
- Maori‐owned Miraka recently opened
PAGE 14 Source: Interviews; Coriolis
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
Contents 4
Glossary of terms 5
Methodology & data sources 6
F&B IP Overview 7
Summary & conclusions 9
Sector overview 15
Milk powder 48
Appendices 61
DAIRY – GLOBAL PRODUCTION
New Zealand is the 8th largest milk producing country and accounts for 2.6% of global milk production; it
produces a similar amount of milk as other temperate countries its size (e.g. Italy, the UK)
Total global milk production by country/region
(t; m; 2009)
SS Africa 3% Other 0%
Other S Asia 0%
Germany United Kingdom 2%
Pakistan 2% 5% France
S. Asia/Indian Sub. NA/ME/CA 7% Poland 2%
4%
10% Italy 2%
Turkey 2%
India 8% Netherlands 2%
SE Asia 1%
Other E Asia 0% Ukraine 2%
Japan 1% Europe
East Asia
38%
8%
China 6% Other Europe 11%
Other C America 1%
Mexico 2%
Russia 6%
Other S America 4%
TOTAL = 583m tonnes
PAGE 16 Note: Total may not add due to rounding; 2009 is latest available 8/2011; effectively manufacturing milk; excludes on farm/home production (e.g. India); Source: UN FAO AgStat;
Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – GLOBAL PRODUCTION
Dairy production surging outside traditional European/Western countries
Total global milk production by region % of global milk production by region
(t; m; 1961‐2009) (t; m; 1961‐2009)
600
2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
S.S. Africa 1% 1% 2% 2%
4% 3% 4% 6%
14% 0%
1% 0%
2% 0% 6% 7%
NA/ME/CA 1% 2% 2%
5% 2% 0%
5% 3% 9%
2% 6% 2%
500 S. Asia 2% 2%
10%
2% 0%
1% 7% 4%
2% 1%
S.E. Asia 42%
1% 3%
2% 8%
E. Asia
21% 17% 16% 9%
C. America 3%
400 16%
2%
S. America 2% 10%
Australia 2%
3%
New Zealand 21% 17%
300 20% 23%
23%
USA/Canada 16%
7%
200 USSR/Russia 6%
‐
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
PAGE 17 Note: Total may not add due to rounding; 2009 is latest available 8/2011; Source: UN FAO AgStat; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – RATE OF IMPROVEMENT
The efficiency of the New Zealand pastoral dairy system is improving at a relatively stable rate; competitors are
also improving
93 years growth in New Zealand butterfat per cow Milk per cow: NZ vs. select peers
(kg/cow; 1917‐2010) (t/cow; 1961‐2009)
CAGR
200 10.0 (61‐09)
Obviously milk per
cow is only one USA 2.2%
180 9.0
R² = 0.9444 variable in total
system Denmark 1.8%
160 8.0 competitiveness
CAGR
(17‐10)
0.8% 7.0
140
120 6.0
Australia 2.2%
100 5.0
Ireland 1.8%
Argentina 1.9%
All our science, all our
80 4.0
effort, all our research, all
our investment just keeps New Zealand 0.4%
60 us on this line 3.0 China 1.8%
China
Last 10 years
40 2.0 6.2%
Brazil 1.3%
1.0
20
‐
‐
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
PAGE 18 Source: UN FAO AgStats; Statistics NZ; Department of Statistics; DairyNZ; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – SOME COMPETITORS IMPROVING FASTER
New Zealand’s key dairy competitors are not standing still; they continue to improve, often at a faster rate
EXAMPLE: Changing variables in milk production: California vs. New Zealand
(1973‐2007)
# of dairy farms Cows/farm Milk/cow Milk production
18.1
(actual) (actual) (l; actual) (l; b)
958 1.6% 4.1% 15.1
CAGR 10,179
9,482
(73‐07) 6.2% 8,407
‐3.4% 636
7,002 9.7
6,400 5,917
5,600
6.5
4,200
275 4.7
2,500 165
1,974 124
1973 1981 1991 2001 2007 1973 1981 1991 2001 2007 1973 1981 1991 2001 2007 1973 1981 1991 2001 2007
19,396
‐1.4%
Question: Can you project these variables in 2025?
16,757
15,313
14,000
13.1
1973 1981 1991 2001 2007 1973 1981 1991 2001 2007 1973 1981 1991 2001 2007 1973 1981 1991 2001 2007
PAGE 19 Source: SNZ (various); CDA; USDA ERS; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – MILK SHARE BY FIRM
The global dairy industry is highly fragmented with thousands of small firms, primarily farmer‐owned
cooperatives, supplying regional markets
Total global milk production by top ten firm by milk intake Comments/Notes
(t; m; 2009)
‐ Treat data as directional/indicative; note
data issue discussed below
‐ Data for companies listed here will include
double counting as it is their milk intake,
including milk bought from others
‐ Corporate dairy firms primarily buy milk
from cooperatives; they do not as a rule
own farms
3.5%
‐ For example: Nestle, Danone and Kraft
2.9% all buy lots of milk from Fonterra
2.6% ‐ NOTE: Data is milk intake not sales; Nestle’s
2.0% dairy sales are twice those of Fonterra’s (as
Top 10 the things Nestle makes its milk into are
1.8%
20% worth more than the things Fonterra makes
1.7% its milk into)
1,000’s of smaller dairy firms
1.5%
around the world, mostly co‐
operatives of farmers 1.4%
80% 1.3%
1.3%
TOTAL = 583m tonnes
PAGE 20 Source: International Farm Comparison Network; UN FAO AgStat; Coriolis analysis
Mlekovita
DOC Kaas
Allgäuland
tail of small dairy companies
suggests there is a very long
United Dairy Farmers
Fonterra is a very large dairy company on global standards; other NZ dairy firms more typical of global mean
(primarily cooperatives)
All of our work to date
Berglandmilch
around the world
Eurial Poitouraine
Mlekpol
Darygold
Bayernland
Milklink
3A
GLAC
Lactogal
Capsa
Non‐co‐op
Dairygold
FirstMilk
co‐op
Lakeland Dairies
Bright Dairy
Milchunion Hocheifel
Even
Milchwerke Koln
Granarolo
Robert Wiseman
Tnuva (Israel)
Hochwald
Pascual
Pfizer Wyeth
Foremost Farms
Milcobel
Associated Milk Producers
Emmi
National Dairy
DFA
California Dairies
Great Lakes Cheese
HP Hood
Darigold
Murray Goulburn
Agropur
Entremont Alliance
Leprino
Kroger
Valio
Tine
Dairy Crest
BMS
Prairie Farms
Source: Company annual reports; company reports; and Coriolis analysis
Irish Dairy Board
Top 76 global dairy firms ranked by dairy products turnover
Fromageries Bel
Glanbia
Inner Mongolia Yili
Muller
Yakult
Snow Brand Milk
DAIRY – TOP FIRMS BY TURNOVER
Mengniu Dairy
Schreiber
Nordmilch
Sodiaal
Land O'Lakes
Saputo
Kraft Foods
Humana Milchunion
Abbott
Bongrain
Parmalat
Unilever
Morinaga
(US$; 2008 or as available) Kerry Group
Meiji Dairies
Arla Foods
Fonterra
Dean Foods
Lactalis
Friesland Foods
Danone
PAGE 21
Nestle
$‐
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
DAIRY – SUPPLY CHAIN
New Zealand dairy products have a somewhat complex supply chain driven by the multiple‐stage process of
turning raw milk into final products for consumers around the world
Simplified model of New Zealand dairy supply chain1
(model; ANZSIC codes as available))
Infant formula Supermarkets
manufacturing Processed & other retail
Foods
PAGE 22 1. Non‐dairy supply chain is covered in the processed foods section; 2. There may be one or more layers of wholesaling, depending on product or market; some wholesale functions
may be captive inside retailers or foodservice operators; Source: Coriolis
DAIRY – # OF ENTERPRISES
The number of enterprises involved in the New Zealand dairy industry is growing
Number of enterprise units in the dairy industry in New Zealand Comments
(enterprises; 2000‐2010) CAGR ‐ Dairy wholesaler growth likely a mixture of
(00‐10) (09‐10) small wholesalers (e.g. imported cheese) and
240 3% 2% captive regional wholesale functions of larger
236 235
229 groups (e.g. regional milk wholesale/
219 218 distribution in Southland)
206 ‐ Recent surge in milk processing enterprises
interesting
187
175
171 Notes/Definitions
163
162 Dairy wholesale 4% ‐1% ‐ An “enterprise” is a reporting entity for
163 (F360‐300) GST purposes; large companies such as
178 Fonterra will contain multiple GST
172
162 161 reporting entities
150
136 ‐ Dairy wholesalers may include distributor
113 122
106 contractors
Cheese/other 2% 4%
56 dairy (C113‐300)
54
40 39 Processing and
45 43 36 35 45 46 46
manufacturing
17 16 16 18 18 22 Milk processing 5% 22%
13 14 12 11 12 (C113‐100)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PAGE 23 Source: SNZ business demographics (detailed industry for enterprise units); Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – EMPLOYMENT
The number of people employed in the dairy industry is growing again following a restructuring in 06/07
Number of persons employed in the dairy manufacturing industry in New Zealand1 Comments
(people; 2000‐2010)
‐ 2006‐2007 reduction is likely a reduction in
the number of undefined/unallocated many
offshore Fonterra employees out of the
dataset (ie. no longer employees of a directly
13,620 resident NZ firm)
12,930 CAGR
12,670 1,090
12,250 (00‐10) (09‐10)
11,810 1,070
1,100 11,700 11,690 1% 3% Notes/Definitions
11,390 11,360
1,370
930 10,840 1,020 Dairy wholesale ‐1% ‐2% ‐ Excludes farmers
10,580 1,930 1,040 (F360‐300)
1,210
1,000 ‐ 2005 looks anomalous; likely SNZ
1,180 classification issue
8,390
10,870
3,470
2,320 2,420
1,940 1,660 1,670 1,760 Milk processing ‐1% 5%
1,510 (C113‐100)
990 930
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PAGE 24 1. Uses persons employed by enterprise unit; Source: SNZ business demographics (detailed industry for enterprise units); Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – EMPLOYMENT BY FIRM SIZE
Large firms are not growing their share of dairy industry employment; relative growth appears to be coming from
growing mid‐sized firms
% of employment by firm employment size in the dairy manufacturing industry in New Zealand1 Comments
(people; 2000‐2010)
‐ Large firms appear to be achieving productivity
increases
‐ Growth in mid‐size firms hopeful; suggests
2002 drop represents firms moving into large
category
Absolute Notes/Definitions
92% 91% 91% 92% 92% 92% 90% 100+ ‐1.8% ‐2.4%
94% 94% 94% 94%
PAGE 25 Source: SNZ business demographics (detailed industry for enterprise units); Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – EMPLOYMENT BY REGION
Dairy industry employment is spread across the regions; however the Waikato and Taranaki stand out for
absolute numbers
Number of persons employed in the dairy manufacturing in New Zealand by region Comments/Notes
(people; 2010)
‐ Clearly proportional to cow numbers
‐ Also proportional to # of plants and average
plant capacity
Southland
Notes/Definitions
2%
Northland ‐ Does not include farmers
4% Classified Otago South Island
elsewhere 7% ‐ Statistics New Zealand calculates its statistics
~24% of allocated
7% based on the predominant business activity of
the enterprise
Canterbury ‐ A firm that is defined as “beverage
Auckland 10% West Coast manufacturing” at the enterprise level may
11% 2% have a subsidiary at the geographic level that is
Nelson/Tas/Marl classified as “grape growing”
1%
Wellington ‐ Data here is “geographic” units not
3% “enterprise” units (pages prior)
ManawatuWanganui ‐ “Classified elsewhere” is the difference
8% between geographic unit employees and
enterprise unit employees; it represents firm
subsidiaries not involved in “beverage
Waikato manufacturing,” for example those classified as
26% “grape growing” or “beverage wholesaling”
Taranaki ‐ Nelson/Tas/Marl = Nelson/Tasman/
Bay of 14% Marlborough
Plenty
5% ‐ H.B/Gisb. = Hawkes Bay / Gisborne
H.B./Gisb.
‐ Wellington region includes north to the Kapiti
0%
and Masterton districts
Total = 11,690
PAGE 26 Note: Uses persons employed by enterprise unit; Source: SNZ business demographics; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – EMPLOYMENT BY REGION
The dairy industry is creating employment, but only in a handful of regions
Number of persons employed in the dairy manufacturing industry in New Zealand Comments
(people; 2000‐2010)
‐ Covers before and after creation of Fonterra
13,620
‐ Only Waikato, Otago and Canterbury creating
10 year
12,930
Absolute large numbers of new jobs
12,670
Change
12,250 2,293 ‐ 2006‐2007 reduction in number of
(00‐10)
11,810 1,773 11,700 11,690 +1,100 undefined/unallocated likely redefinition of
11,390 1,600
11,360
1,456 526 many offshore Fonterra employees out of the
1,310 10,840 839 Classified elsewhere +115
10,580 765 dataset (ie. no longer employees of a directly
593 647 740 953
1,397 567 510 Northland ‐200 resident NZ firm). Do not read too much into
623
724 648 495 515 the decline.
1,260 1,430 1,290 1,300
588 1,220 Auckland +160
710 1,220 ‐ Dairy employment down across 7 of 13 regions
1,200 910 1,180
1,090 over period
1,060
Number of persons employed in the dairy manufacturing industry in New Zealand by key firm Comments/Notes
(people; 2010)
‐ Fonterra total is New Zealand employees,
not global (excluding TipTop, listed under
processed foods)
‐ Open Country includes Dairy and Cheese
GF Meadow Fresh
1000 8% Open Country 196
2%
Westland 350 3%
Tatua 194 2%
Synlait 160 1%
Fonterra 9,100 78%
Other 690 6%
Total = 11,690
(page prior)
Aggregate dairy industry turnover/total income Comments
CAGR
(NZ$m; nominal, non‐inflation adjusted; 1998‐2010)
(05‐10) (09‐10) ‐ Are we reaching the peak of the cycle?
$20,000
Notes/Definitions
Dairy 8% 6%
processing ‐ Dairy farming uses SNZ Annual Enterprise
$18,000 Survey (AES) supplementary table 4 (various
years)
$16,000 ‐ 2009 is the most recent available; 2010 likely
available Oct 2011
$14,000 ‐ Dairy processing not available in SNZ data
(dairy industry aggregated with meat) due to
confidentiality issues surrounding Fonterra
$12,000 data (which is strange as Fonterra publishes
annual accounts)
‐ Dairy processors given here is Coriolis from
$10,000
Dairy farming 8%1 N/A published annual accounts (and Coriolis
estimates for missing years); pool is: Fonterra,
$8,000 Meadow Fresh, Open Country, Westland,
Tatua, Synlait, NZDL and Dairy Goat Co‐op
‐ Dairy processors will include non‐NZ sales of
$6,000 non‐NZ products by NZ resident firms (e.g.
Fonterra in Chile)
$4,000 ‐ Will include some amount of double counting
(e.g. Fonterra on‐selling milk to Open Country)
$2,000 ‐ Dairy processors only; does not include ice
Dairy farming cream or small specialty cheese firms
Milk processing
$‐
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$‐
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PAGE 30 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – FIRM PROFITABILITY BENCHMARKING
Financial performance of key firms varies
Salmon
Kerry Group 12% 14%
Average Average
International
Salmon 15% 17%
Arla 8% Co‐Op 12%
Salmon
Campina 7% 12%
Dean Foods Company 6% 8%
Kraft Foods 14% 7%
New Westland 5% 6%
Zealand
Average Average
4% 5%
Open Country 2% 3%
PAGE 32 Key: darker = Co‐Op; Lighter = corporate; Note: EBITDA is as given or calculated as OPBIT + depreciation; we are not accountants; data should be treated as directional; firms chosen
by Coriolis from past research with additions and subtractions suggested by NZ firm interviewees; Source: various annual reports as published; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – VALUE ADDED
Peers indicate there may be more opportunities to add value
Benchmarking value added: key New Zealand firms vs. select global dairy companies Notes/Definitions
(% of sales; FY10)
‐ To economists value‐added is the “difference
between the cost of materials purchased by a
firm and the price for which it sells those
International New goods”; this is almost/ effectively gross profit
63% Zealand
(which is what we use here) [or effectively
what firms pay GST on]
58%
‐ Gross profit itself is then paid out as a return
53% on labour (wages), other non‐COGS and a
24% return on capital (EBITDA)
EBITDA
‐ Gross domestic profit (GDP) is a measure of the
18% gross value added; when we propose
increasing New Zealand’s GDP, we are
38% 37% effectively proposing to increase the amount of
36% 36% value added
31% ‐ Saputo (used page prior) not enough data in
7%
12% Annual report for this calculation
14%
8% 25%
22%
Wages & 6% 19%
other value 40% 5%
16%
added 35%
28%
24% 23% 9%
20% 22% 20%
19% 18%
3%
7%
2%
‐1% 1%
PAGE 33 Note: we are not accountants; data should be treated as directional; Source: various annual reports as published; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – KEY FIRMS
The New Zealand dairy industry is dominated by Fonterra; there are five other firms with dairy turnover over
$100m (Goodman Fielder, Open Country, Westland, Tatua and Synlait)
Key firms in the New Zealand dairy sector
(2010 or as available)
Year
Turnover % Export Employees Ownership founded Notes
Milk processing/diversified dairy
PAGE 34 Source: Source: various company annual reports (AR) ; various company websites (ws) ; Kompass (K) ; interviews (Ci) ; Coriolis analysis and estimates (Ce)
DAIRY – SECONDARY FIRMS
New Zealand also has a strong second tier of dairy firms
Secondary firms in the New Zealand dairy sector
(2010 or as available)
Year
Turnover % Export Employees Ownership founded Notes
Butter
Other dairy products
Others (est. under $10m) Proposed or in progress
PAGE 35 Source: Source: various company annual reports (AR) ; various company websites (ws) ; Kompass (K) ; interviews (Ci) ; Coriolis analysis and estimates (Ce)
CHEESE – OTHER FIRMS
There is also a group of smaller specialty cheese firms
Secondary firms in the New Zealand cheese sector
(2010 or as available)
Year
Turnover % Export Employees Ownership founded Notes
Cheese
Others (est. under $5m)
PAGE 36 Source: Source: various company annual reports (AR) ; various company websites (ws) ; Kompass (K) ; interviews (Ci) ; Coriolis analysis and estimates (Ce)
DAIRY – FONTERRA TRANSACTIONS
Fonterra is expanding rapidly overseas …
Recent major dairy industry transactions
(2005‐2010)
Date Acquirer Target Price Details
PAGE 37 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – FONTERRA TRANSACTIONS
… and has been for decades
Recent major dairy industry transactions
(1986‐2005)
Date Acquirer Target Price Details
PAGE 38 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – FONTERRA ACTIVITY
Fonterra is building up capacity in South America and Asia …
Recent major dairy industry activities
(2009‐2011)
Date Company Investment Activity Details
PAGE 39 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – FONTERRA ACTIVITY
… continued …
Recent major dairy industry activities
(2004‐2009)
Date Company Investment Activity Details
PAGE 40 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – FONTERRA ACTIVITY
… continued
Recent major dairy industry activities
(2001‐2002)
Date Company Investment Activity Details
PAGE 41 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – TRANSACTIONS
Traditional dairy companies are moving into new higher growth areas
Recent major dairy industry transactions
(2005‐2011)
Date Acquirer Target Price Details
PAGE 42 1. Ex‐head PPCS (aka. Silver Fern Farms); Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press
releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – ACTIVITY
There has also been a range of significant investments in plants, both domestic and overseas
Recent major dairy industry activities
(2006‐2011)
Date Company Investment Activity Details
2008 Open Country Dairy N/A New plant ‐ Awarua Commissioned the Awarua factory; whole milk powder capacity to increase to 200m litres of milk
PAGE 43 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – THEMES
A number of theme emerge from firm behaviour…
Identified firm level activity or investment themes
(2010)
In‐market investment
Farm investments Investing in farms in international markets ‐ Fonterra – 2010 New Fonterra Yutian Farm ($42m investment) to be developed in Yutian County, Hebei,
China (houses 3,000 cows)
‐ Fonterra – 2007 The Tangshan Fonterra Farm pilot successfully demonstrated ability to produce high
quality milk locally (6,000 cows, 25m litres of milk)
Production Piako Gourmet Yoghurt ‐ Producing yoghurt in UK and branding as “Little Melton Products” (to be a UK‐made company) supplying
investment producing yoghurt in UK Harrods and Waitrose
‐ Support from Fonterra in NZ market to distribute into supermarkets
PAGE 44 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – THEMES
… continued
Identified firm level activity or investment themes
(2010)
Focus on Growth
Asia‐NZ co‐ Asian state owned enterprises investing in ‐ Vietnam Dairy Products (48% Government of Vietnam) invests to buy 19% ownership of Miraka with
investment New Zealand dairy Maori (Wairarapa & Tuaropaki)
‐ Bright Dairy (majority owned by Shanghai regional government) buys 51% of Synlait
‐ Misui (Japan) invests 15% of Synlait
Vertical integration Joint ownership of farms and processor ‐ Synlait ownership of 15,000 cows; Bright part ownership of processing and marketing assets, not
including farms
‐ Miraka ownership of 18,000 cows (via Maori owner/shareholders)
Partnerships ‐ Goodman Fielder and The Grate Kiwi Cheese Co. partnership (2007) to supply cutting and wrapping for
its cheeses
‐ “We will be investing limited capital in the joint venture which will be used to install specialist cutting
and wrapping equipment in GKC’s Auckland plant. This will not only provide us with a secure supply base
but will also allow us to develop some innovative new packaging solutions for our range of consumer
cheeses.” CE, Peter Margin, 2007
‐ Fonterra and Piako yoghurt distribution deal
Increasing Retail Brands
Exporting consumer Dehydrated yoghurt ‐ Full ownership of EasiYo adds a branded product to Westland Milk Products portfolio. The shift to a new
products plant in 2010 enables EasiYo to increase export sales to $30m a year.
PAGE 45 Source: various companies annual financial statements (as filed with NZ Companies Office or available company website); various press releases and news articles; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – EXPORTS BY TYPE
New Zealand dairy exports have achieved strong growth driven by milk powder and whey
$7,312
$931 $5,605
$1,628
$1,174 $1,585 SE Asia 11% +$1,013m 42% +$469m
$4,538
$1,421
$4,133 $270
$731
$3,781 $397 Indian Sub 18% +$321m 76% +$171m
$740 $1,116
$229
$1,315
$3,233 $3,250 $714 $891
$2,891 $1,019 $225 $1,309 NA/ME/CA 18% +$1,048m 28% +$284m
$553 $546 $783
$2,557 $169 $259
$498 $771 $1,025
$140 $200
$457 $772 $694 $779 $306 SS Africa 27% +$279m 44% +$94m
$112 $627 $1,003
$580
$76 $92 $492 $151 $924 $212
$572 $80 $381 $95 $779 Other 9% +$458m 33% +$195m
$269 $90
$76 $34 $336 $67 $482 $513 $424 $584
$261 $38 $439 $326
$27 $528 $393 $420 $230 $250 $450 Australia/ 13% +$318m 49% +$148m
$216 $303
$321 $154 $151 $160 Pacific Islands
$133 $685 $793
$445 $522 $614 $589 $561 $504 N. America 3% +$116m ‐10% ‐$56m
$389 $482 $420
$322 $364 $396 $445 $426 $422 $465 $478 $477 $405 $448 Europe 3% +$126m 11% +$43m
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PAGE 47 Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
Section Page
Contents 4
Glossary of terms 5
Methodology & data sources 6
F&B IP Overview 7
Summary & conclusions 9
Sector overview 15
Milk powder 48
Appendices 61
MILK POWDER – GLOBAL
Milk is produced in temperate regions and exported as milk powder to tropical or dry areas close to the equator
Milk surplus and deficit worldwide
(2007 or 2008)
PAGE 49 Source: IFCN
MILK POWDER – PRODUCTION TOP 10
New Zealand is the largest producer of milk powder in the world, followed by China; however, in aggregate,
Europe is the largest producer
Global milk powder production by top 10 countries/regions and other Comments
(tonnes; 000; 2011 or as available )
‐ Few would articulate that China was the
WMP SMP second largest producer of milk powder in
the world
EU‐27 785 1,010 1,795
‐ At what point will China become self‐
sufficient in milk powder?
New Zealand 1,015 375 1,390
‐ At what point will China begin exporting
significant quantities of milk powder?
China 1,050 56 1,106
PAGE 50 Source: USDA “Dairy: World Markets and Trade July 2011” p19 and p23; UN FAO AgStat; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – TOP 20 MILK PRODUCERS
Countries with excess milk production export milk powder
New Zealand ‐
Australia ‐ ‐
USA ‐ ‐
Germany ‐ ‐
Netherlands ‐ ‐
Denmark/ Sweden ‐ ‐
France
PAGE 52 Source: Coriolis
DAIRY – INTER‐REGIONAL MILK POWDER EXPORTS
Oceania has grown to become the major global milk powder exporting region
10 Year Last Year
CAGR Absolute CAGR Absolute
Inter‐regional milk powder exports by region $10,408
(US$m; 2000‐2010)
$8,421
$4,395
$7,651 TOTAL 7% +$3,595m 14% +$930m
$6,721
$3,774
$5,793 $5,828
$5,431
$4,793 Australia/ 11% +$3,117m 43% +$1,451m
$4,730 $3,341 Pacific Islands
$4,419
$2,512 $2,796 $3,095
$4,056 $3,966 $2,368
$2,200
$2,028 $2,621
$1,675
$1,972
Inter‐regional milk powder imports by country/region Comments/Notes
(millions of tonnes; 2009)
‐ Inter‐regional imports means all imports
Europe/N America/Oceania, 35
by countries in a region minus imports
between countries within that region
Other SE Asia,
Other SS Africa, 359
128
Nigeria, 295
China, 282
Other
NA/ME/CA,
232
Algeria, 293 Other E Asia,
47
Saudi Arabia,
81
Total = 2,452
+20% lager than NZ in
area but only 2% as
many dairy cows as NZ
Malaysian cows
Dairy cattle
(95,000)
farming
(A016)
Malaysian Dairy
Factories
Imported milk
powder
Most value
added at this
stage
PAGE 55 Source: photo credit (fair use; low resolution; complete product/brand for illustrative purposes); Coriolis
DAIRY – TOP 20 MILK POWDER IMPORTING COUNTRIES
New Zealand has a very high market share in Asia, especially China
Top 20 milk powder importing countries and New Zealand’s share
(millions of tonnes; 2009)
China
Indonesia
Philippines
Singapore NZ accounts for much of Asia’s imports
Malaysia
Thailand
Sri Lanka
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
NZ Imports
Oman
Other Imports
Nigeria
Mexico
Venezuela
Brazil
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
NZ has no presence in Europe
Germany
United Kingdom
Spain
$2,585
$1,063 E Asia 26% +$955m 127% +$595m
$238
$2,049
$648
$211 $1,875
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PAGE 57 Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – SKIMMED MILK POWDER EXPORTS BY REGION
New Zealand skimmed milk powder is primarily exported to populated regions with limited domestic dairy
production 10 Year Last Year
CAGR Absolute CAGR Absolute
New Zealand SMP exports by region $1,023 TOTAL 14% +$748m 23% +$194m
(US$m; 2000‐2010)
$949
$880
$829
$657 $545
$444
$417
PAGE 58 Source: UN Comtrade database; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – ASIAN MILK MARKET
Asia is New Zealand’s largest market for milk powder and New Zealand and Australia have captured most of this
market
Fresh milk production Milk powder import per capita Milk powder imports
(thousands of tonnes; 2009) (kg per person; 2009) (thousands of tonnes; 2009)
New Zealand
Australia
Philippines 14 1.4 59 48 6 34
Europe
Other
Singapore 0 28.5 64 41 19 11
Malaysia 41 3.9 78 17 6 13
PAGE 59 Source: UN Comtrade database; FAOSTAT; Coriolis analysis
DAIRY ‐ AVAILABLE MILK SUPPLY – CHINA, JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA
Using the growth in milk production of Japan and South Korea as a guide, China should grow ~30% in the next 10
years then level off
Total milk available per capita Comments/Notes
(kg per capita; 1961‐2009)
‐ Calculation is (milk production) + (dry milk
80 imports x 10) / (population
‐ This is not total dairy, just available milk; it
excludes imported cheese, etc.
70
Japan
60
50 South Korea
40
30 CAGR
China
(75‐85) CAGR
18% (97‐07)
17%
20
10
‐
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
PAGE 60 Total milk available means local fresh milk production + reconstituted milk powder imports (reconstituted milk calculated to weigh 10 times more than milk powder); Source:
FAOSTAT, UNESCAP, Coriolis analysis
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE
Section Page
Contents 4
Glossary of terms 5
Methodology & data sources 6
F&B IP Overview 7
Summary & conclusions 9
Sector overview 15
Milk powder 45
Appendices 61
DAIRY – INDUSTRY ORGANISATIONS
As a major dairy producer, New Zealand has a strong range of dairy industry organisations
Key dairy industry organisations
(2010)
# of Annual
Representing members budget Funding Website/notes
DairyNZ Farmers ~11,000 $65.1m ‐ Levy ($51.8m) and other ($15.1m) www.dairynz.co.nz
(Expenses ‐ Govt co‐funded research program PGP $170m merger of Dairy InSight and Dexcel
YE10)
PAGE 62 Source: Coriolis analysis
DAIRY – INDUSTRY SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
New Zealand has strength in dairy research across a range of research institutes
Key dairy research bodies in New Zealand
(2010)
Total Total
Income Staff Focus & activities
n/a n/a ‐ www.riddet.massey.ac.nz
Riddett Institute ‐ Hosted by Massey University in partnership with University of Otago, The University of Auckland,
Plant and Food Research, AgResearch
‐ National Centre of Research Excellence (CORE)
‐ Research in food industry in particular the dairy industry
n/a 100+ ‐ www.fonterraresearch.com
scientists ‐ Fonterra Research Centre
‐ Dairy centre and pilot plant in Palmerton North
AgResearch $155m 824 ‐ Foods & Bio‐based Products; food composition and function, The role of foods in human health and
(2010) wellbeing
26 (research ‐ Industry good activity
$65.1m team) ‐ Research farms, feed, farm systems, animal sciences
PAGE 63 Source: Coriolis analysis