Foresight Consulting

Contacts

Global Chris Luebkeman

Global Director, Foresight + Research + Innovation
San Francisco
chris.luebkeman@arup.com

Josef Hargrave
Associate, Foresight + Research + Innovation
London
josef.hargrave@arup.com

East Asia Shu-Wei Wu

Analyst, Foresight + Research + Innovation
Hong Kong
shu-wei.wu@arup.com

Americas Francesca Birks

Americas Lead, Foresight + Research + Innovation
New York
francesca.birks@arup.com

Australasia Andrew Maher

Australasia Lead, Foresight + Research + Innovation
Melbourne
andrew.maher@arup.com

Europe Gereon Uerz

Associate, Foresight + Research + Innovation
Berlin
gereon.uerz@arup.com

UK Marcus Morrell
Senior Analyst, Foresight + Research + Innovation
London
marcus.morrell@arup.com
Contents

Office Locations 4

About Us 7

Horizon Scanning 9

Trend Research 11

Vision & Strategy 13

Scenario Planning 15

Concept Design 17

Prototyping & Visualisation 19

User Journeys & Experience Design 21

Talks & Presentations 23

Workshops 25

Publications & Media 27

Drivers of Change 29

7see 31

Inspire Database 33

About Arup 35
Office Locations

Arup has over 11,000 employees spread across over 90 offices. The Foresight
team is based in San Francisco, New York, London, Berlin, Hong Kong and
Melbourne. From here we serve five global regions: North America, UKMEA,
Europe, Asia and Australasia.

London

New York
San Francisco

Arup Offices

Foresight

4 Foresight Consulting
Berlin

Hong Kong

Melbourne

5
It’s Alive — Future of Urban Buildings
Our ‘It’s Alive’ illustration explored the future design and function of a high rise building in the
year 2050. The project imagined a future where buildings are smarter, more responsive to the
needs of their users, and producers of resources rather than consumers.
© Arup
About us

Arup Foresight specialises in the future of the

built environment. We collaborate with our clients
to help them understand trends, explore new
ideas, and identify future markets. We developed
the concept of “foresight by design”, combining
corporate foresight with Arup’s global engineering
and consulting expertise to provide clients with
unique insights and strategies for the future of the
built environment.

7
Strategic Horizon Scanning Programme
Foresight delivered a strategic horizon scan for a multinational conglomerate. The project
focussed on the identification of emerging risks and opportunities and their impact on various
parts of the business.
© Arup
Horizon Scanning

How can we identify

emerging risks
and opportunities?

Horizon scanning describes the strategic and systematic identification,

analysis and communication of signals of change.

Our Team continuously scans a global network of sources for new trends,
insights, cutting-edge thinking, and systemic connections. We analyse this
information and communicate what it could mean for a specific business,
market, or project.

Arup supports the horizon scanning value chain by improving the

effectiveness of how insights are collected, processes,
and communicated.

9
 © Dan Heap (Flickr) CC BY 2.0

Future of the Marine Economy

Foresight delivered a comprehensive trend report for a global chemicals company.
The project focussed on the key trends shaping the future of the marine economy and
highlighted promising areas for innovation and value creation.
Trend Research

How will global

trends affect the future
of our business?

Our trend research takes a holistic view of the world. We cover medium
to long-term developments with the framework of society, technology,
economics, environment, and politics. We deliver in-depth and custom trend
analysis that help organisations prepare for change within specific contexts
or markets.

Our trend reports support the development of corporate strategies,

help identify emerging risks, describe new growth fields, and explore
opportunities for disruptive innovation.

11
Vision for a Future Workplace
Foresight delivered a future workplace vision for a global technology company.
© Hufton + Crow

The project explored the key external and organisation-specific trends shaping the design
and operation of the workplace and translated outputs into a vision that
could be used by the architects and design team.
Vision & Strategy

How can we better

anticipate and manage
future change?

Organisations and large capital projects need a common vision

to ensure that different components and contributors can effectively work
towards a common goal. We specialise in co-creating visions that provide
the overall direction and framework for an organisation, project, or initiative.
These visions support strategy, collaboration, creative thinking, design
innovation, and leadership.

13
Future of Aviation
Foresight delivered a series of scenarios on the future of aviation. The study explored how
trends in society, technology and economics will reshape the future of airports and the wider
traveller experience.
© Arup
Scenario Planning

What do alternative
pathways into
the future look like?

Scenarios are plausible pictures of the future that build upon a detailed
examination of today’s world and the forces that are driving change. They
are a tool for strategic thinking, making sense of uncertainty, and exploring
future options. Good scenarios are built from evidence, engage all key
stakeholders, help organisations understand the dynamics of change, and
map out a range of possible futures. They provide a structured framework
for debate upon which robust, resilient business strategies and policies can
be developed. We have long-standing experience in the development and
delivery of different types of scenario processes, including workshop-based
processes as well as larger-scale research initiatives.

15
Sustainable Urban Hotel Concept
Foresight supported a global hotels chain in the design of a new sustainable urban hotel
experience. The programme covered the design of the building, the use of emerging
technologies, and the future customer experience. An ‘innovators circle’ of internal and external
experts supported the concept design and ideation process.
© Arup
Concept Design

How can we develop

radically new product
ideas, business models
and solutions?

We specialise in helping companies look beyond their own sector to explore

new sources of inspiration and to identify opportunities for fields that are
rich in opportunities for future growth. We use tools, such as design
charrettes and road mapping, to explore ideas and to break down medium-to
long-term visions or goals into clear strategic decisions points and product
development steps.

17
Melbourne Smart City Visualisations
Foresight designed a series of visualisation for the future of smart mobility in
Melbourne. Tram stops, bus-stops and train stations were turned into “informationally-rich’
spaces, embedded with real-time transit data and wayfinding elements. Vehicles, such as
trams and buses, report their position in real-time, generating data on public mobility.
© Arup
Prototyping & Visualisation

How can we create

tangible prototypes and
visualisations of our
projects and ideas?

We believe in “foresight by design”, the use of innovative design tools and

techniques to bring new ideas to life and to engage clients and stakeholders
in more meaningful conversations about change. Our innovative methods and
tools help our clients develop new and disruptive ideas, foster innovation and
support new product development.

We learn by doing and are continually experimenting with emerging

technologies so that we are in a better position to inform others. Our team
prototypes technologies, designs real-time IT systems, curates exhibitions,
visualises concepts and data, and produces three-dimensional spatial models
that help organisations explore and develop new ideas.

19
Future of Personal Care
Foresight delivered a series of future user journeys and product experiences for a global
personal care company. The project focussed on identifying opportunities for future product,
service and experience innovation across arrange of global markets and product categories.
© Arup
User Journeys & Experience Design

What could our future

customer, product
or service experience
look like?

User journeys explore the future through the eyes of the customer or
“user”. This people centred approach ensures that new products, services or
experiences are designed around people and their expectations and desires.
It ensures that innovation is driven not only by technology-opportunity, but
crucially by what experiences we actually want to create for people. User
journey and experience design allow the analysis and conceptualisation of
new innovation opportunities, help communicate and share new ideas, and
allow organisations to explore new ideas through a different lens.

21
Sustaining Tomorrow
Dr. Chris Luebkeman delivering a talk at Pop!Tech.

© Pop!Tech
Talks & Presentations

Who can introduce our

customers and staff
to inspiring ideas?

Our team and network includes a distinguished group of speakers that travel
the world to bring inspiring and engaging presentations to a diverse set of
audiences. We speak at conferences and private events, and give lectures at a
range of universities. Our talks and presentations communicate global trends,
future challenges, and evolving business contexts.

23
 © Craig Holmes Photography

Future of Manufacturing
Foresight delivered a workshop for a government agency exploring the future of manufacturing
globally. Workshops took place in Europe, North America and Asia engaging a wide range
of thought and business leaders from leading private and public sector organisations.
Workshops

Foresight workshops explore trends and emerging issues that are most
relevant to a particular client. We collectively identify key trends and
collaboratively examine their implications as they would evolve over time.
We use our own unique scenario methods to help participants imagine future
contexts for their particular business, sector, or region.

Innovation workshops encourage incremental or disruptive innovation. We

use a range of brainstorming and thinking tools to encourage creative input.
For retailers and service industries we incorporate character profiles and
design charrettes that explore the shifting needs and desires of customers and
clients.

Strategy workshops are designed to help our clients develop more robust
and resilient business strategies. Always challenging assumptions, these
workshops invite participants to think beyond their daily operations, to take
a long-view of their business and how it may have to adapt and change over
time. We help participants identify core objectives as well as the strategic
actions that must be taken to achieve them.

25
SlimCity Knowledge Cards
Foresight delivered a set of knowledge cards for the World Economic Forum focussing on
solutions for future urban mobility. The cards were used in a series of workshops with cities and
government administrations.
© Arup
Publications & Media

How can we best capture,

communicate and share
trends and insights about
the future?

We deliver a variety of media and outputs designed to engage a wide

audience in conversations about change. In addition to our Drivers of
Change initiative we publish knowledge card sets, papers, blogs, and
educational materials. We give lectures, produce short films, and curate
exhibitions and installations to communicate ideas.

27
© Arup
Drivers of Change

What might our world look

like in 2050?

Arup’s Drivers of Change initiative is an evolving knowledge base of the

key global issues and trends driving change in our societies and markets. It
is one of the most well known and comprehensive publication series of its
kind. The first edition pinpointed fifty global drivers. It was the result of an
intensive three-year programme of workshops that engaged different sectors
of industry between 2002 and 2005. Since then, we have focussed on ten
macro topics: urbanization, demographics, poverty, energy, water, waste,
food, oceans, climate change and convergence. The cards are an effective
way of raising awareness about our environment, both man-made and
natural. They help initiate conversations, act as worksho;p materials, provide
a foundation for further study, and supply relevant input for strategy and
innovation processes.

In 2013 we brought out a set on possible wild cards we need to be

considering in addition to the macro topics.

29
© Arup
7see

How will the

macroeconomic
environment change?

The whole country economic models developed at Arup are a revolutionary

approach to analysing and integrating a country’s full economic and
employment statistics, including travel, energy and balance of payments.
The framework can be used for creating future scenarios using the evidence
base of historical data combined with new investment options. Models are
currently being developed for the economies of the UK, Australia, Taiwan,
and Columbia.

31
© FRI
Inspire Database

How can we share

inspiring concepts
and ideas?

Inspire is a browser-based collection of emerging ideas, case studies and

concepts from across the globe. It captures the state-of-the-art, the possible,
and the surprising. It can be used as a source of inspiration for corporate
foresight, strategy, risk, and innovation processes.

Inspire supports the collection and communication of insights as part of a

dedicated horizon scanning programme. It enables improved knowledge shar-
ing across the organisation, increasing our awareness and understanding of
case-studies and benchmarks across different markets and themes.

33
© Arup
About Arup

We are an independent firm of designers, planners, engineers, consultants

and technical specialists offering a broad range of professional services.
Through our work, we aim to make a positive difference to different
communities. We shape a better world.

Founded in 1946 with an initial focus on structural engineering, Arup first

came to the world’s attention with the structural design of the Sydney Opera
House, followed by its work on the Centre Pompidou in Paris. Arup has
since grown into a multi-disciplinary organisation. Its work, such as the
National Aquatics Center for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing has reaffirmed its
reputation for delivering innovative and sustainable designs that reinvent the
built environment.

Arup brings together broad-minded individuals from a wide range of

disciplines and encourages them to look beyond the constraints of their own
specialisms.

This unconventional approach to design springs in part from Arup’s

ownership structure. The firm is owned in trust on behalf of its staff. The
result is an independence of spirit that is reflected in the firm’s work, and in
its dedicated pursuit of
technical excellence.

35
Cities of the Future
Hong Kong
© Arup
Our Clients and Partners (selected)

American Museum of Natural History

Autodesk
BASF
Beiersdorf
British Airways
British Telecom
C40 Cities
Cambridge University
Cisco Systems
City of Edinburgh
City of Melbourne
Clinton Climate Initiative
Crown Estate
Deloitte
Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
Deutsche Bank
Evonik
Future Cities Catapult
General Electric
Grosvenor Estates
Harvard University
Hilton Group
Institution of Civil Engineers
InterContinental Hotels Group
International Women’s Forum
Lawrence Berkeley National Labs
Mitsui & Co.
Proctor & Gamble
Royal Dutch Shell
Singapore Design Council
Kingdom of Jordan
TED
Transport for London
Urban Land Institute
US Department of Defence
Volkswagen Group
Walmart
Walt Disney Corporation
World Economic Forum

37
13 Fitzroy Street
London W1T 4BQ
arup.com
driversofchange.com
© Arup 2014

38 Foresight Consulting
Arup Foresight specialises in the future of the built
environment. We help our clients understand trends, explore
new ideas, and identify future markets. We developed the
concept of “foresight by design”, combining corporate foresight
with Arup’s global engineering and consulting expertise
to provide clients with unique insights and strategies for the
future of the built environment.

13 Fitzroy Street
London W1T 4BQ
arup.com
driversofchange.com
© Arup 2014