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Hurricane Hazards assessment and mitigation

in the context of Caribbean Islands


Introduction to hazard Assessment

• A physical event that does not affect human beings is a natural phenomenon and not a natural
hazard.
• A hazardous event that causes unacceptably large numbers of fatalities and/or overwhelming
property damage is a natural disaster.
• In areas where there are no human interests, natural phenomena do not constitute hazards nor
do they result in disasters.
• This idea contradicts the perception of natural hazards being unrestrained forces of nature that
wreak unavoidable havoc. It shifts the burden of cause from purely natural processes to the
concurrent presence of human activities and natural events.
• Although humans can do little to change the incidence and intensity of most natural
phenomena, they have an important role to play in ensuring that natural events are not
converted into disasters by their own actions.
Hurricanes and how they are formed

• Hurricanes are generated at latitudes of 8 to 15 degrees north and south of the


Equator as a result of the normal release of heat and moisture on the surface of
tropical oceans.
• Hurricane formation requires a sea surface temperature of at least 27 degrees
Celsius. In the summer months, the sea temperatures in the Caribbean and
Atlantic can reach 29 degrees, making them prime locations for inception.
Steps involved in the genesis of the hurricane:
1. Surface water warms the air, and it rises
2. Incoming easterly winds then block the rising warm air and an atmospheric
inversion is created when the two mases meet, thunderstorms subsequently
develop
3. Growth of the system occurs when the pressure in the center of the storm drops
and there is a propulsion of the trade winds in a spiral pattern because of the
earth’s rotation.
4. As the energy increases, the air circulation pattern is inward towards the low
pressure center and upward, in a counter clockwise spiral in the northern
hemisphere) and a clockwise spiral in the southern hemisphere.
5. Typically, a hurricane eventually dissipates over cold water or on land about 10
days after the genesis of the system.
Geometric Distribution of Hurricanes in the
Caribbean
Caribbean Islands Most at risk
are:

• Jamaica
• Haiti / Dominican Republic
• Dominica
• St Lucia
• St Kitts & Nevis
• St Vincent
• Grenada
Hurricane related hazards
1. Wind Damage:

• Hurricane wind speeds can reach up to 250km/h


(155mph) in the wall of the hurricane, and gusts can
exceed 360km/h (224mph).The destructive power of
wind increases with the square of its speed. Thus, a
tripling of wind speed increases destructive power by a
factor of nine.
• Another contributor to destruction is the upward vertical
force that accompanies hurricanes; the higher the vertical
extension of a hurricane, the greater the vertical pulling
effect.
• Destruction is caused either by the direct impact of the
wind or by flying debris.
• Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricanes are classified into
five categories according to the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale, which estimates potential
property damage according to the hurricane's sustained
Barbados following the passage of Tropical Storm Matthew
wind speed.
Direct and Indirect Impact of hurricane wind
hazard
Direct Impact of Wind Indirect Impact of Wind

• Damage to agricultural crops • Most of the destruction, death, and injury by


• Entire forests have been flattened by forces wind is due to flying debris.
that pulled the tree roots from the earth. • Improperly fastened roof sheets or tiles are
• Man-made fixed structures are also the most common projectiles.
vulnerable. Tall buildings can shake or even • Other frequent objects are antennas, telephone
collapse. poles, trees, and detached building parts.
• The drastic barometric pressure differences in
a hurricane can make well-enclosed structures
explode and the suction can lift up roofs and
entire buildings
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
2. Storm Surge
• A storm surge is a temporary rise in sea level
caused by the water being driven over land
primarily by the on-shore hurricane force
winds and only secondarily by the reduction in
sea-level barometric pressure between the eye
of the storm and the outer region.
• If heavy rain accompanies storm surge and the
hurricane landfall occurs at a peak high tide,
the consequences can be catastrophic. The
excess water from the heavy rains inland
creates fluvial flooding, and the simultaneous
increase in sea level blocks the seaward flow
of rivers, leaving nowhere for the water to go.
Hurricane Katrina's storm surge pours over the 8-foot high north levee eastern New Orleans
3. Wave Damage

• Hurricane winds can create abnormally high waves,


both along the path of the storm and at great
distances from it. When combined with increased
water levels from storm related surges, waves
produced during a hurricane can reach areas
typically shielded from the direct effects of waves,
destroying buildings and dramatically altering the
existing shoreline.

• The effect that a wave can have on a stretch of


coastline is determined not only by the strength of
the wave itself, but also by the slope of the bottom
offshore, presence of coral reefs or other
breakwaters and the shape of the coastline. These
factors can dissipate wave energy before it reaches
the shore or concentrate it, significantly increasing
Navarre Pier during Hurricane Ivan's Approach in Alabama local wave effects.
4. Rainfall & Subsequent flooding & Landslides
• The rains that accompany hurricanes are extremely variable
and hard to predict, they can be heavy and last several days
or can dissipate in hours.
• Intense rainfall causes two types of destruction. The first is
from seepage of water into buildings causing structural
damage; if the rain is steady and persistent, structures may
simply collapse from the weight of the absorbed water.
Mexico after Hurricane Manuel, 2013
• The second, more widespread and common and much more
damaging, is from inland flooding, which puts at risk all
valleys along with their structures and critical transportation
facilities, such as roads and bridges.
• Landslides, as secondary hazards, are often triggered by
heavy precipitation. Areas with medium to steep slopes
become oversaturated and failure occurs along the weakest
zones. Thus, low-lying valley areas are not the only sites
Haiti after Hurricane Matthew, 2016
vulnerable to precipitation.
Impacts of hurricanes
1. Economic Impact

 Retards or slows the rate of economic development


 Areas affected by hurricanes undergo a restoration period
which must take place before development resumes
 This stifles productivity
 Slow economic gains
 Cost of repair and restoration places strain on the country’s
economy
 Hurricanes are unforeseen disasters therefore lack of financial
preparedness will put the economy of the country under stress
in the event of a hurricane
 Cost of repair can exceed the budget of the country
Houses are flooded in the neighbourhood of La Javilla in Santo Domingo,  Economic downfall
the capital of Dominican Republic after Hurricane Sandy, 2012
Impacts of hurricanes
2. Social Impacts

 Contamination and lack of water as well as food supply


 Increase spread of diseases, such as cholera and pneumonia
 Persons suffer from food poisoning, dehydration
 Increased number of deaths within the community

 Loss or damage to property


 Persons left homeless
 Overcrowding of shelters
 Poor sanitation facilities available

 Victims or witnesses of hurricane events are usually inflicted with


trauma which takes a period of time to overcome.

People left homeless after hurricane Katrina, 2005


Impacts of hurricanes
3. Environmental Impacts
 Strong winds generated can destroy forested areas
 Habitat for animals destroyed
 Structural changes to the ecosystem

 High wind speeds removes sand or topsoil


 Nutrients are lost
 Soil becomes exposed and infertile

 Salt water saturation


 the fertility of the soil is reduced

Indio Maíz in Nicaragua after Hurricane Otto on November 24, 2016


Hurricane Hazard Mitigation
At the International Level

In the past three decades the technological capacity to monitor


hurricanes has improved dramatically, and along with it the casualty
rate has declined. New technology permits the identification of a
tropical depression and on-time monitoring as the hurricane develops.
The greatest advance has occurred in the United States, but
developing countries benefit greatly because of the effective warning
mechanism. The computer models also generate vast quantities of
information useful for planners in developing nations.

At the Regional Level

Within the Caribbean there are some entities responsible for managing
hazards and disasters such as:
1. CDEMA – Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
2. UWI Disaster Risk Reduction Centre
3. PCDPPP – Pan Caribbean Disaster Preparedness & Prevention
Project
At the National Level

Agencies set up in countries to give public education and guidance with respect
to
disaster preparedness and management:
1. ODPM – Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (Trinidad &
Tobago)
2. DEM – Department of Emergency Management (Barbados)
3. CDC – Civil Defence Commission (Guyana)

At the Local Level

Most Caribbean islands consist of municipal corporations and/or national


emergency preparedness offices which are responsible for:
1. Area-wide emergency matters
2. Secondary Roads, Drains and Municipal Infrastructure
3. Public Health and Sanitation Services
4. Municipal Building and Development Control
5. Community Services and Facilities
Hurricane Disaster Risk Index (HDRI)

• The Hurricane Disaster Risk Index (HDRI) is a composite index that rates East and Gulf Coast
counties in the United States according to the risk that they will experience a hurricane disaster.

• The index considers four major factors that contribute to a county's risk: Hazard, Exposure,
Vulnerability, Emergency Response and Recovery Capability
The HDRI can be used in two ways:
(1) To compare the overall hurricane disaster risk of different counties
(2) To determine the causes of the risk by examining the four main factor values for a particular
county.

• These two uses are helpful in making resource allocation and high-level planning decisions, in
educating the public and decision makers about the different factors that contribute to the overall
hurricane disaster risk.
Engineering aided mitigation strategies for
hurricane hazards
Geomatics Engineering Civil Engineering

Zoning & Land use management Building code implementation and


enforcement

Vulnerability analysis updates Building use regulation and safety


codes

Global Navigation Satellite System Civil engineers protect residents by


building infrastructure, such as
levees, to prevent flooding during
hurricanes
Photogrammetry

Cadastral Surveying
TAOS : The Arbiter of Storms

What is TAOS?
TAOS/L is a storm hazard model for use in the Caribbean that can be used to assess the impact of storm
surge and wave action on coastal areas throughout the region. The TAOS storm model relies on solving
flow equations for air and water via coupled finite difference solutions. The model is capable of giving
output data such as maximum wind at surface, maximum still water height, maximum wave height, etc.
Application of the TAOS Model:
Within the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP), TAOS/L has been used to map storm-related
hazards at various locations throughout the Caribbean. For example A 1995 study of Parham Harbour,
Antigua, included modelling of storm surge and inland flood hazards. In Jamaica, TAOS has been used to
model storm surges in Montego Bay and is currently being used to map wind and storm surge hazards in
the Kingston metropolitan area.
Case Study: Hurricane Luis, Antigua &Barbuda
(1995)
Hurricane Luis struck Antigua & Barbuda on the 4th and 5th September 1995. Luis was a Category-4 storm, large in extent with a
very distinct eye of 70 km in diameter and a forward motion of 17 km/h.
Because of its overall size and slow forward motion, the hurricane impacted on Antigua for an uncommonly long period. Severe
storm conditions lasted for about 30 hours during which time about 250 mm of rain fell.
The level of damage in Antigua was equivalent to two-thirds of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Such an event
has the potential to set back the development of a small island independent state by several years. In particular, much damage was
done to essential facilities in the country. These facilities include telecommunications; water supply and distribution; electricity
generation, transmission and distribution; and the public health services.
Damage to buildings was mainly due to weak connections of light-weight roofing and siding materials, impact damage to glazed
openings from flying objects, inadequate fixings of windows and external doors and water damage from the torrential rains. There
were also examples of catastrophic collapse of entire buildings due to unsound structural concepts. The lack of maintenance of
building components contributed significantly to the damage. In the cases of structures not associated with buildings (e.g.
telecommunication towers and transmission systems) inadequate specification of performance criteria at the procurement and
design stages was an important factor in the failures. The actual wind speeds were not greater than should have been expected in a
1-in-50-year event. The introduction of mandatory building standards and codes would have a significant, positive impact in
reducing losses in future hurricanes.
References
"Case Study Of The Effects Of Hurricane Luis On The Buildings And Other Structuresof The Electricity Section Of The Antigua Public Utilities Authority". 2017. Oas.Org.
http://www.oas.org/cdmp/document/apua/apu.htm.
"CDMP Storm Hazard Modeling -- TAOS Overview". 2017. Oas.Org. http://www.oas.org/cdmp/hazmap/taos/taosdoc/taosfull.htm.
"CHAPTER 12 - HURRICANE HAZARDS". 2017. Oas.Org. http://www.oas.org/dsd/publications/unit/oea66e/ch12.htm.
Conservation, Global. 2017. "Rebounding From Hurricane Otto In Nicaragua’S Most Ecologically Sensitive Rainforests". National Geographic Society (Blogs).
http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2016/12/12/rebounding-from-hurricane-otto-in-nicaraguas-most-ecologically-sensitive-rainforests/.
"Hurricane Preparedness - Hazards". 2017. Nhc.Noaa.Gov. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/hazards.php.
"Hurricanes - Lesson". 2017. Www.Teachengineering.Org. https://www.teachengineering.org/lessons/view/cub_weather_lesson05.
"Introduction To Tropical Meteorology, Ch. 8: Tropical Cyclones: 8.1 Global Distribution And Monitoring Of Tropical Cyclones". 2017. Goes-R.Gov. http://www.goes-
r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_1.0.0.htm.
"Landslides Due To Hurricanes - Google Search". 2017. Google.Tt.
https://www.google.tt/search?q=landslides+due+to+hurricanes&biw=1366&bih=638&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwja7qPcnMXSAhWrwFQKHZsYA6kQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=3B
cgqzYs6ZUiBM:.
Tilanus, Alexander and Alexander Tilanus. 2017. "Hurricanes In The Dominican Republic - Background Info". Seavisbayahibe.Com. http://www.seavisbayahibe.com/articles/Hurricanes-
in%20the%20Dominican-Republic.htm.
Tuttle, Hilary and View →. 2017. "The Long-Term Economic Impact Of Hurricanes | Risk Management Monitor". Riskmanagementmonitor.Com. http://www.riskmanagementmonitor.com/the-
long-term-economic-impact-of-hurricanes/.
Watson, Charles C. 2017. "The Arbiter Of Storms : A High Resolution, GIS Based System For Integrated Storm Hazard Modeling | VHL Search Portal". Pesquisa.Bvsalud.Org.
http://pesquisa.bvsalud.org/oncologiauy/resource/en/des-11017.
"What Made Hurricane Matthew So Strong?". 2017. Cbsnews.Com. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-matthew-what-made-storm-so-strong/.
Questions

1. Name three Caribbean Islands that are most


at risk to hurricane hazards
Questions

2. Name the scale that relates the category of


a hurricane, its wind speed and the level of
damage.
Questions

3. Identify 1 economic, 1 social and 1


environmental impact of a hurricane.
Questions

4. Name a mitigative strategy of hurricane


hazards.

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