Presentation to National Academy of Sciences

Committee on Naval Engineering in the 21st Century

Some Potential Technology Implications of the Navy’s Future

Ronald O’Rourke
Congressional Research Service

National Academy of Sciences

2100 C St., NW, Washington, DC
January 13, 2010
Disclaimer

— These views are my own and do not necessarily reflect

the views of CRS, LoC, or Congress

Introduction – my background

— CRS naval issues analyst since 1984

— Role of CRS

— Responsible for tracking Navy strategy, plans,

programs, budgets, technology, industrial base, and
related issues, particularly ship acquisition

— Reports, briefings, testimony for Congress

— Magazine/journal articles and presentations to

government, industry, and academic audiences
Outline

— Some potential technology implications of

— Navy’s future operating environment

— future Navy operations

— Navy’s future resource situation

— Note: some potential implications

— not intended as a comprehensive listing

— no particular order
Navy’s future operating environment
Navy’s future operating environment

— Advanced above-surface anti-access weapons,

including:
— ASBMs (China reportedly developing)
— advanced ASCMs
— advanced SAMs
— advanced tactical aircraft
Navy’s future operating environment

— Advanced above-surface anti-access weapons,

including:
— ASBMs (China reportedly developing)
— advanced ASCMs
— advanced SAMs
— advanced tactical aircraft

— Improved shipboard radars

— Networking with off-board radars and other sensors
— Directed-energy weapons (DEWs), particularly lasers
— offense-vs.-defense marginal cost equation
— shipboard power — integrated electric drive
— urgency, coordination, funding of R&D work
— Terminal-phase defense against ASBMs
— Soft-kill options for countering ASBMs
Navy’s future operating environment

— Advanced below-surface anti-access weapons,

including:
— modern submarines
— wake-homing torpedoes
— modern (as well as older) mines
Navy’s future operating environment

— Advanced below-surface anti-access weapons,

including:
— modern submarines
— wake-homing torpedoes
— modern (as well as older) mines

— Technologies for a distributed, sensor-intensive (vs.

platform-intensive) approach to ASW
— Anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT) to counter wake homers
— Soft-kill options against wake-homers
— Improved MCM technologies, particularly for
— faster MCM
— improved MCM in very shallow water/surf zone
Navy’s future operating environment

— Vulnerability of, or uncertain access to, regional land

bases
Navy’s future operating environment

— Vulnerability of, or uncertain access to, regional land

bases

— Technologies for reducing reliance on regional land

bases for fuel, supplies, and repairing battle damage
— ships with increased fuel and supplies
— ships with reduced fuel use and smaller crews
— integrated electric drive
— technologies to reduce crew size
— nuclear power for surface ships other than CVNs
— ships with greater survivability
Navy’s future operating environment

— Cyberwarfare and ASAT

Navy’s future operating environment

— Cyberwarfare and ASAT

— Improved defensive and perhaps offensive cyberwarfare

capabilities organic to the fleet

— Ability to continue operating effectively if systems and

networks are degraded or eliminated by cyber attack
and/or ASAT
— redundancy
— rapid reconstitution
— capabilities for stand-alone operations
Navy’s future operating environment

— Possible adversary use of nuclear weapons

Navy’s future operating environment

— Possible adversary use of nuclear weapons

— Ships, aircraft, and systems hardened against nuclear-

weapon effects such as EMP, thermal, overpressure

— Shipboard citadels and decontamination systems

Navy’s future operating environment

— Terrorist and irregular-warfare threats to forward-

deployed Navy ships
Navy’s future operating environment

— Terrorist and irregular-warfare threats to forward-

deployed Navy ships

— Improved technologies for detecting and countering

shore-based ASCMs, smaller aircraft, small boats, mini-
subs, mines, swimmers, rockets, and mortars
— lethal and non-lethal weapons for countering small
boats
— sensors, barriers, and lethal and non-lethal
weapons for countering swimmers
— sensors and weapons for cost-effectively
countering rockets and mortars
— topside equipment that can withstand attacks by
rockets and mortars
Navy’s future operating environment

— Policymaker focus on energy use and climate change

— recently announced Navy goals
Navy’s future operating environment

— Policymaker focus on energy use and climate change

— recently announced Navy goals

— Technologies for reducing Navy’s dependence on

petroleum-based fuel, and for moving Navy toward goal
of carbon-neutral operations at sea
— wider use of features for improving hydrodynamic
performance (e.g., bow bulbs, stern flaps, hull
coatings)
— effective, environmentally friendly coatings
— hybrid electric drive and integrated electric drive
— higher-efficiency gas turbines
— fuel cells
— more energy-efficient shipboard equipment
— biofuels
— nuclear power for surface ships other than CVNs
— kite-assisted propulsion
Future Navy operations
Future Navy operations

— Possibly operating outside range of anti-access

weapons
Future Navy operations

— Possibly operating outside range of anti-access

weapons

— Longer-ranged manned aircraft and UAVs/UCAVs

— e.g., UCAS-N

— Longer-ranged strike/NSFS weapons

— e.g., rail gun for NSFS

— Off-board sensors and networking for longer-ranged

surveillance, targeting, and damage assessment
Future Navy operations

— Expanding sea-based BMD operations

Future Navy operations

— Expanding sea-based BMD operations

— Defense against Chinese ASBMs

— improved shipboard radars and other sensors
— networking with off-board radars
— DEWs, particularly lasers
— terminal-phase defense against ASBMs
— soft-kill options for countering ASBMs

— European BMD operations

— Integration with land-based European BMD
systems
— SM-3 Block IIB
Future Navy operations

— Irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations

Future Navy operations

— Irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations

— Improved ship-based ISR capabilities, including UAVs

— persistent ISR
— UAVs on submarines

— Improved expeditionary EW, SIGINT, counter-IED,

EOD, and riverine capabilities

— Fast-to-target, low-collateral-damage strike weapons

— Improved capabilities for covertly inserting and

recovering SOF
— e.g., ASDS follow-on
Future Navy operations

— Anti-piracy operations
Future Navy operations

— Anti-piracy operations

— Improved ISR capabilities

— persistent
— improved discrimination of pirates from non-pirates
— lower cost

— Non-lethal weapons for countering pirates

Future Navy operations

— Partner capacity-building operations

Future Navy operations

— Partner capacity-building operations

— Improved facilities for shipboard education and training

— built into ships
— modular and portable
Future Navy operations

— Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR)

operations
Future Navy operations

— Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR)

operations

— Improved ship-to-shore transfer of HADR-related

equipment and supplies

— Equipment for using ships to provide emergency power

ashore
Future Navy operations

— Increased surface-ship operations in the Arctic

— diminishment of Arctic sea ice
Future Navy operations

— Increased surface-ship operations in the Arctic

— diminishment of Arctic sea ice

— ships with ice-strengthened hulls

— systems and components designed to operate in

extreme cold

— aircraft fuel for operations in extreme cold

— communication and navigation systems for supporting

high-latitude operations

— Arctic search and rescue capabilities

— e.g., for responding to a large cruise ship in distress
Navy’s future resource situation
Navy’s future resource situation

— Ship and aircraft procurement affordability

Navy’s future resource situation

— Ship and aircraft procurement affordability

— Greater use of common hulls/airframes, systems, and

components

— Improved design for producibility/production engineering

— Improved materials

— Improved construction processes and methods

— e.g., NSRP

— Technologies to reduce size of ship radars and

integrated electric drive systems

— Technologies to reduce ship crew size

Navy’s future resource situation

— Reduced ship and aircraft procurement rates

Navy’s future resource situation

— Reduced ship and aircraft procurement rates

— Longer ship and aircraft service lives

— more-rugged construction/more-durable materials
— greater growth margins
— open-architecture combat systems and physical
open architecture to facilitate modernization
over long lives
— improved condition tracking and assessment
— Greater percentage of ship life spent on deployment
— more-rugged construction/more durable materials
— features facilitating long-duration deployments
with crew rotation (aka Sea Swap) and/or multiple
crewing
— Increased use of UVs to extend ship capabilities
Navy’s future resource situation

— O&S costs crowding out funding for procurement

Navy’s future resource situation

— O&S costs crowding out funding for procurement

— Ships with reduced crew sizes

— Ships and aircraft with open-architecture combat

systems and physical open architecture to reduce life-
cycle modernization costs

— Ships and aircraft with improved materials to reduce

life-cycle maintenance costs

— Increased use of UVs to as substitutes for manned

platforms
Thank you