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Thev TOD Dividend

Opportunities and Findings

Town of Chapel Hill


City of Durham
Durham County
Orange County

June 2018
Tonight’s Agenda
• Welcome

• Goals of FTA Grant & Why TOD

• Report on Key Findings


– Economic
– Community Benefits
– Affordable Housing
– Catalytic Infrastructure

• Station Opportunity Case Study


– Gateway + Patterson Place

• Next Steps

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Light Rail Project Update

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Goals of FTA Grant

• Coordinate neighborhood planning w/ D-O LRT Design

• Assess and plan for economic development

• Optimize community benefits

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Outcomes of FTA Grant

• Prioritize complementary infrastructure

• Recommend strategies to support equitable neighborhoods

• Deliver TOD Guidebook coordinating outcomes

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Our Opportunity & Our Challenge

• 20 new people move to


Durham / Chapel Hill
metro area every day

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Connecting to Opportunity

This growth means there are new


jobs here – can we get people
who need them to those jobs?

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Personal Mobility Supports Social Mobility
“In a large, continuing study of upward mobility based at Harvard, commuting
time has emerged as the single strongest factor in the odds of escaping poverty.
The longer an average commute in a given county, the worse the chances of
low-income families there moving up the ladder.” – “Transportation Emerges as
Crucial to Escaping Poverty,” New York Times, May 7, 2015

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But Growth Strains Mobility

We are adding 1 minute of travel


time per year between Durham
and Chapel Hill.

All of our buses sit in this traffic.

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Cameron Blvd to
Manning Drive
using US 15 / US
501
at 5 pm

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Manning Dr to Cameron Blvd using US 15/US 501
Average trip travel time and speed
25.0 40

20 20
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16 17 30

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Travel time

Speed
12.5 20

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0.0 0
April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 April 2017

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Transit That Sits in Traffic is
a Recipe for Reduced
Access to Jobs
The light rail and other major investments
in Wake, Durham and Orange counties
will create a network of transit services
that will not be influenced by congestion in
the way that buses in regular traffic are.

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#ConnectingToOpportunity

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Light Rail: Focused on Job Centers

• Durham-Orange Light Rail Corridor ~ 106,000 jobs TODAY


• Jobs in corridor projected to be over 150,000 in 20 years

UNC Hospital

Duke/VA Medical 
Downtown Durham Center

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Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
66,000

East Lakewood at Memphis St.
16 2016 transit network
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
66,000
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
81,000

23%
Increase East Lakewood at Memphis St.
17 Future transit network with LRT
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
66,000
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
81,000

These numbers are 
based on the jobs and 
housing we have today. 
If we plan well for station 
23%
area development, even 
more jobs will be 
Increase
accessible in 45 minutes East Lakewood at Memphis St.
18 Future transit network with LRT
Video

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Attributes of Successful TOD

1. Sustainable Density
(Accommodate Growth + Preserve Rural Land)
2. Mix of Uses
3. Compact pedestrian-oriented
4. Active defined center
5. Limited, managed parking
6. Public leadership

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Key Findings

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Economic Benefits

• Broader tax base to support community priorities

• Attracting and retaining jobs (competiveness)

• More people accessing more jobs = More Opportunity

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Economic Benefits

DOLRT Corridor Total 2018 – 2057


Station Areas (basis for all financial estimates below) 7,026 acres
Potential Redevelopment Areas Within Station Areas 1,361 acres
Net New Property Value $3.3 billion
Net New Annual Tax Revenue $44.6 million

Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057) $1.4 billion


Financial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflation‐adjusted discount rate of 2.5%

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Economic Benefits

Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue by Jurisdiction 2018 – 2057


Chapel Hill / Carrboro Schools $26M
Town of Chapel Hill $100M
Orange County $110M
City of Durham $480M
Durham County $680M

Total $1.4 billion
Financial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflation‐adjusted discount rate of 2.5%

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More revenues for:
o Dedicated Housing Fund
o Durham Belt Line
o Athletic facilities

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Affordable Housing
#HousingForAll

• Affordability = Housing + Transportation

• Growing population + limited supply

• Gentrification/Displacement Concerns
2013: $168,000 2018: $258,000

Durham median asking price, Redfin

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Realizing Opportunities
#HousingForAll

• Harness growth along D-O LRT


– Equitable neighborhood change
– Walkable urbanism

• Partnerships
– Encourage meaningful private involvement
– New partners (e.g., Impact Investing)

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Strategies
#HousingForAll

• Addressing Affordable & Attainable


– Subsidized & Naturally Occurring
– Calibrate for range of incomes

• Missing Middle
– Housing type diversity
– Incremental development (e.g., ADUs)

• Preservation
– e.g., converting market rate multifamily

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Just Do It
#HousingForAll

• Clear and predictable approval process

• Exactions alone will not suffice—Need Private & Public $$$

• Expand experimentation with every tool possible

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Catalytic Infrastructure Needs

Rail +10 Rail +20


Pre-Rail
years years

• Each station area has its own needs and


catalytic opportunity

• Timing matters: e.g., affordable housing can’t


happen until utilities exist

• Harnessing partnership potential is key (e.g.,


OWASA reimbursement for oversizing utilities)

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Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place
Middle-of-the-Line

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Gateway + Patterson Place

• Maximize benefits
– Geography & Proximity
– Opportunity for active uses

• Economic Development
– Class “A” office / HQ
– Hospitality & Entertainment
– Retail & Residential

• Mobility: Walk, Bike, Bus, Drive, Rail

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Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place

DOLRT Corridor Total 2018 – 2057


Station Areas (basis for all financial estimates below) 1071 acres
Potential Redevelopment Areas Within Station Areas 297 acres
Net New Property Value $484 million
Net New Annual Tax Revenue $6.56 million

Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057) $200 million


Financial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflation‐adjusted discount rate of 2.5%

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Connectivity

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Gateway + Patterson Place

Rail +10 Rail +20


Pre-Rail
years years

Gateway 15/501 Connections > District Parking

Patterson Place Sewer Pump Station > I-40 Bike/Hike Bridge

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Public-Led District Parking
Near Term

• Shared, Managed, Unbundled & Priced

• Mix of on-street, surface and structured


Long Term
• Coordination among Chapel Hill,
Durham, and private sector

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Zoning
Town of Chapel Hill City/County of Durham

• Presently a Future Focus Area • Compact Neighborhood Tier


Boundary has been adopted
• Adopt Framework Plan as part of
Future Land Use Map • Design District requirements are
being crafted, including the
• Formulate a TOD District establishment of sub-districts,
Ordinance future street network maps,
environmental regulations,
• Incorporate into the LUMO heights and densities, an
(Town-wide Land Use affordable housing bonus, and
Management Ordinance) rewrite parking regulations

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Competitive Advantages

• World – Class
Universities
• A Global Brand
• Middle of the Line
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DISCUSSION