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3
Reliability of System Structures
Rs = Pr[φ = 1] (3.1)
Observe that an artifact of the binary definition of the
system state is that the system reliability is also the expected
value of the system state variable:
27
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ri = Pr[ xi = 1] (3.3)
where, because of the fact that the xi are binary, it is again
the case that the reliability and expected value correspond.
For a system comprised of n components, we take
r = {r1 , r2 , ......, rn }
to be the vector of component reliability values. Given the
defined notation, it is reasonable to expect that the system
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Rs ( r ) = Pr[φ( x) = 1] (3.4)
and we devote the next section to the realizations of this
expression.
Rs = Pr[φ( x) = 1] = Pr[ ∏ x = 1]
i =1
i (3.5)
Now, in general
n n
Pr[ ∏ x = 1] ≥ ∏ Pr[ x = 1]
i=1
i
i=1
i
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Rs = ∏r
i=1
i (3.6)
Rs = Pr[φ( x) = 1] = Pr[ i =1
xi = 1] = Pr[ ∏ (1 − x ) = 0]
i =1
i (3.7)
Pr[ x = 1] ≤ Pr[ x = 1]
i=1
i
i=1
i
Rs = r
i=1
i (3.8)
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Rs = Pr[ ∑ x ≥ k]
i=1
i (3.9)
3.1.
Based on the expressions in Table 3.1, the system reli-
ability is
Rs = r1r2r3r4r5 + r1r2r3r4(1 – r5) + r1r2r3(1 – r4)r5
+ r1r2r(1 – r3)r4r5 + r1r2(1 – r3)r4(1 – r5)
+ r1r2(1 – r3)(1 – r4)r5 + r1(1 – r2)r3r4r5
+ r1(1 – r2)r3r4(1 – r5) + r1(1 – r2)r3(1 – r4)r5
+ r1(1 – r2)(1 – r3)r4r5 + r1(1 – r2)(1 – r3)r4(1 – r5)
+ (1 – r1)r2r3r4r5 + (1 – r1)r2r3r4(1 – r5)
+ (1 – r1)r2r3(1 – r4)r5 + (1 – r1)r2(1 – r3)r4r5
+ (1 – r1)r2(1 – r3)(1 – r4)r5(3.11)
With considerable algebraic effort, this reduces to
Rs = r1r4 + r2r5 + r1r3r5 + r2r3r4 − r1r2r3r4 − r1r2r3r5 − r1r2r4r5
− r1r3r4r5 − r2r3r4r5 + 2r1r2r3r4r5 (3.12)
In addition, for a structure such as the bridge, it would
be reasonable for all five components to be identical and to
have the same reliability. Then,
ri = r ∀i
and the system reliability function reduces to the polynomial
Rs = 2 r2 + 3r3 − 5r4 + 2r5 (3.13)
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bs = ∏r ≤ R ≤ r = b
i=1
i s
i=1
i p (3.14)
bs = r n ≤ Rs ≤ 1 − (1 − r) n = bp
n n
Pr
∏
i =1
xi = 1 ≥
∏ Pr x = 1
i =1
i
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n n
Pr
i =1
xi = 1 ≤
Pr x = 1
i =1
i
(3.16)
= Pr φ( x) = 1 = Rs
κ 1 ( x) = x = 1 − (1 − x )(1 − x ) ,
i∈C1
i 1 2
so Pr κ 1 ( x) = 1 = r = 1 − (1 − r)
i∈C1
i
2
κ 2 ( x) = x = 1 − (1 − x )(1 − x ) ,
i∈C2
i 4 5
so Pr[κ 2 ( x) = 1] = r = 1 − (1 − r)
i∈C2
i
2
κ 3 ( x) = x = 1 − (1 − x )(1 − x )(1 − x ) ,
i∈C3
i 1 3 5
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so Pr[κ 3 ( x) = 1] = x = 1 − (1 − r)
i∈C3
i
3
κ 4 ( x) = x = 1 − (1 − x )(1 − x )(1 − x ) ,
i∈C4
i 2 3 4
so Pr[κ 4 ( x) = 1] = x = 1 − (1 − r)
i∈C4
i
3
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ρ1 ( x) = ∏x = x x
i∈P1
i 1 4 ,
so Pr[ρ1 ( x) = 1] = ∏r = r
i∈P1
i
2
ρ2 ( x) = ∏x = x x
i∈P2
i 2 5 ,
so Pr[ρ2 ( x) = 1] = ∏r = r
i∈P2
i
2
ρ3 ( x) = ∏x = x x x ,
i∈P3
i 1 3 5
so Pr[ρ3 ( x) = 1] = ∏r = r
i∈P3
i
3
ρ4 ( x) = ∏x = x x x
i∈P4
i 2 3 4 ,
so Pr[ρ4 ( x) = 1] = ∏r = r
i∈P4
i
3
Then,
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( ) (1 − (1 − r) ) ( )
2 2
bmcl = 1 − (1 − r)2 3
≤ Rs ≤ 1 − (1 − r 2 )2 (1 − r 3 )2
= bmpu
φ( x) = max xi
i
{ }
so
Pr[φ( x) = 1] = Pr[max xi = 1]
i
{ }
and for a parallel arrangement of minimum paths,
Pr[φ( x) = 1] = Pr[max ρ j ( x) = 1]
j
{ }
In general, for any set of probabilities
{ }
max Pr[ρ j ( x) = 1] ≤ Pr[max ρ j ( x) = 1]]
j j
{ }
so the minimax lower bound on system reliability is
{
bmml = max Pr[ρ j ( x) = 1] ≤ Rs
j
} (3.17)
φ( x) = min xi
i
{ }
so
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Pr[φ( x) = 1] = Pr[min xi = 1]
i
{ }
and for the parallel configuration of the minimum cuts
Pr[φ( x) = 1] = Pr[min κ k = 1]
k
{ }
In general,
{ }
Pr[min κ k ( x) = 1] ≤ min Pr[κ k ( x) = 1
k k
{ }
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{
Rs ≤ min Pr[κ k ( x) = 1 = bmmu
k
} (3.18)
{ }
bmml = max Pr[ρ j ( x) = 1] ≤ Rs ≤ min Pr[κ k ( x) = 1 = bmmu (3.19)
j k
{ }
For the bridge with identical components, the computa-
tion of the minimax bounds proceeds as follows:
{ }
bmml = max Pr[ρ j ( x) = 1] = max r 2 , r 2 , r 3 , r 3 = r 2
j
{ }
and
{
bmmu = min Pr[κ k ( x) = 1
k
}
{
= min 1 − (1 − r)2 ,1 − (1 − r)2 ,1 − (1 − r)3 ,1 − (1 − r)3 }
= 1 − (1 − r)2
So
r 2 ≤ Rs ≤ 1 − (1 − r)2
To illustrate the computation and behavior of the bounds,
we have calculated the values of each of the bounds for the
bridge with identical components for several values of the
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3.3 MODULES
The idea that the components that comprise a system may
sometimes be partitioned into modules may be extended to
the calculation of system reliability bounds. There are three
key ways in which this may be pursued. Recall that the
algebraic representation of system state using modules is
φ( x) = φ(ψ ( x))
where
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∏r = ∏r
d d
I R ( j) = Rs = i i
drj drj i=1 i=1
i≠ j
r1 ≤ r2 ≤ r3 ≤ ........ ≤ rn
d
n n n
I R ( j) =
d
drj
Rs =
d
drj i=1
ri = 1 −
drj ∏i=1
(1 − ri ) =
∏ (1 − r )
i=1
i
i≠ j
Minimize ∑c mi=1
i i
subject to
Rs ≥ Rtarget
mi ≥ 1 ∀i
mi integer
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∑c m ≤ C
i=1
i i budget
mi integer
Naturally, for both of the optimization problems, the alge-
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3.6 CONCLUSION
The analyses considered to this point provide a means for
relating system reliability to component reliability for many
types of equipment designs. Several exceptions have been
noted, and some of these will be addressed later in the text.
For the system configurations that are based on binary com-
ponent states and independent components, the models and
analyses treated so far are sufficient to permit a reductionist
approach to reliability analysis. That is, for these simplest of
systems, reliability may be studied at the component level
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3.7 EXERCISES
1. For the system of Problem 5 of Chapter 2, assume
that r = {0.96, 0.96, 0.96, 0.90, 0.90, 0.94, 0.94). Com-
pute the three types of reliability bounds as well as
actual system reliability.
2. For the system of Problem 6 of Chapter 2, assume
that r1 = r2 = 0.96, r3 = 0.95, r4 = 0.98, r5 = r6 = 0.92,
r7 = 0.93, and r8 = r9 = 0.90. Compute the three types
of reliability bounds as well as actual system reliabil-
ity. Also, compute the lower bound under the modular
decomposition you constructed for the system.
3. Compute the reliability of a 3-out-of-4 system for
which all components have a reliability of 0.85.
4. Compute the reliability of a three-component parallel
system in which all components have a reliability of
0.75.
5. Suggest an alternative reliability importance mea-
sure to the one of Definition 3.1.
6. For the system of Problem 7 of Chapter 2, assume
that r1 = 0.85, r2 = 0.80, r3 = 0.95, r4 = 0.75, and r5 =
0.90. Compute the three types of reliability bounds
as well as actual system reliability.
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