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LEKAN OYEBANDE
Department of Geography, University of Lagos,
Lagos, Nigeria
ABSTRACT Type 1 extreme-value distribution (Gumbel)
was applied to the annual extreme rainfall data sets
generated by 11 rainfall zones to estimate the parameters
and hence the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) rainfall.
The chi-square test confirmed the appropriateness of the
fitted distribution. Gumbel graphical plots and the
computed confidence limits also showed that the Gumbel
EV-1 function fits well the empirical distribution.
5-10 8
11-15 8
16-20 11
21-25 15
26-30 3
35
RAINFALL ZONES
A map of Nigeria showing four principal rainfall regions with two
sub-regions was produced by Oyebande (1980). A further study of the
IDF regime, however, indicated further differentiation into zones.
The map proposed in the present study defines 10 principal rainfall
zones with sub-zones (Fig.l). The zones were designated according
to the following climatic and topographic characteristics.
(a) Rainfall IDF regime characterized by three indices namely,
the ratio of: the 10-year 10-min fall to that of the 10-year
30-min fall (A); 2-year 15-min fall to 2-year 60-min fall (B); and
25-year 1-h fall to 25-year 24-h fall (C).
(b) Topographical characteristic as expressed by the altitude of
the station, in metres above the mean sea level.
(c) The average rainfall pattern or regime at the station as
characterized by mean annual rainfall and mean number of rainy days
per year.
Table 1 shows the range of the criteria variables used for
delimiting the zones while the location and extent of each zone is
shown in Fig.l. There are no recording raingauges in zone V, the
hilly eastern area adjacent to the border with the Cameroun
Republic. To delineate this region, it was assumed that the dominant
geographic factor is of orographic origin. This orographic
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 355
35
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 357
Table 4 Results of variance homogeneity test on annual series of observation-day maximum rainfall
Zone Station 1915- -1930: 1931- -1946: 1947- -1959: 1960- -1976: F*
X s2 N X s2 N X s2 N X s2 N
1 Calabar 4.74 0.82 15 5.08 0.86 16 4.98 1.25 13 4.32 1.28 15 1.561
II Lagos 4,63 3.31 16 5.25 2.49 15 4.55 2.37 13 5.35 3.50 17 1.477
III Ondo 3.34 1.72 16 3.30 0.98 16 3.24 0.93 13 3.15 1.07 17 1.849
IVa Offa 2.60 0.86 15 2.91 2.07 16 3.30 2.10 13 3.62 0.95 17 3.38
IVb Yola 2.33 0.12 14 2.99 0.47 16 2.83 0.87 13 2.91 096 15 8.00*
V
VI Minna 3.14 1.01 13 2.96 0.86 16 3.04 0.80 13 3.54 1.32 17 1.65
Vila Sokoto 2.47 0.66 14 2.38 0.39 16 2.99 1.18 12 2.27 0.80 17 3.02
VI lb Jos 2.69 0.15 9 2.78 0,75 16 2.64 1.02 13 2.71 0.51 17 6.80»
VIII Kano 2.80 0.53 15 2.72 0.36 16 3.11 1.38 13 2.40 0.50 16 3.83
IX Wladuguri 2.38 0.43 14 2.46 0.76 15 2.81 0.96 13 2.62 0.81 17 2.23
X Hadejia 2.10 0.43 13 2.70 0.98 16 2.61 0.70 13 2.67 0.83 12 1.93
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
A number of investigators such as Bell (1969) , Natural Environment
Research Council (1975) and Baghirathan & Shaw (1978) have found the
regional analysis useful. The scheme assumes that the annual
maximum rainfall events are independent in time and space. It also
assumes that a sample of falls in a region or zone is sufficiently
varied to represent the population of a long period. The present
knowledge of the storm characteristics in Nigeria indicates that
the convective showers which account for most of the intense falls
are highly localized not only in the northern - zones, but also in the
coastal region which is under the monsoonal influence during much
of the year. The spread of the rainfall stations together with the
effects of localization should ensure that the assumption of
independence is satisfied.
The second assumption, however, is not so easily verified, and
358 Lekan Oyebande
n e = n/(l + r) (n - 1) (1)
where
'Concurrent series are quite short in certain cases and tend to yield rather high correlation coefficients.
CO
CD
Makurdi, Ogoja, Okene 1935-65 0.128 113 61
IVb Ibi, Yola 1916-31 77
CO
0.116 90
CD
VI Lokoja, Minna 1918-77 120 0.055 114 95
Vila Birnin Kebbi, Kotangora,
Sokoto, Zuru 1926-71 184 0.081 148 80
Vllb Kaduna, Kafanchan, Jos,
Pankshin, Wamba 1939-68 150 0.179 87 58
VIII Azare, Bauchi, Hadejia,
Kafinsoli, Kano Samaru 1941-68 135 0.158 91 67
IX Biu, Maiduguri, Potiskum 1940-74 105 0.311 65 62
X Daura, Katsina, IMguru 1947-75 87 0.091 74 85
y = a(x - B) (4)
to obtain
y = - In (In T r / T r - 1) (6)
The first row in each zone contains the value of a; the second row in each zone contains
the value of /3.
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 361
where x(T r ) is the estimate with T-year return period and y is the
reduced variate corresponding to T r - 1/a2 is substituted for a 2 .
The IDF estimates, x, are not shown, but can be obtained by
substituting the values of the statistics B and 1/ct (Table 7) in
the equation x = 0 + (1/oOy, where y is given by equation (6). The
value of the associated standard error can then be calculated as
twice SE(x(Tr)) in equation (9).
A computer programme was written to perform the above and
subsequent functions including the chi-square test of goodness of
fit given by
X 2 = E * = 1 (0± - Ei)2/Ei
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The results of the chi-square test of goodness of fit showed that in
95% of the cases the null hypothesis that the extreme rainfall series
have the Gumbel EV-1 distribution is acceptable at the 5% level of
significance. The few cases in which the fitting was not good were
either for 0.2 or 0.4 h durations. This may not be surprising for
as Hershfield (1962) noted such high intensity-rainfall-frequency
data are not usually accurate and could be subject to large errors
due mainly to sampling deficiencies.
The estimates of 1/a, g and IDF values should therefore prove
reliable and useful. For shorter durations such as 0.2 and 0.4 h,
the value of 1/S is higher in zones VI and IX than in other zones,
and appreciably lower in zones III, Vila and VIII. However, for
durations exceeding 1 h zones I and II show consistently higher
values of both 1/S and S than other zones, and zones Vila, VIII and
IX are also associated with the lowest values of 3-
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 363
iiifi
: ^ i
£ g ?
î S I 1 s ! §
N! TWJNÎVy
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 365
ti
366 Lekan Oyebande
The plots of the rainfall intensity vs. return period are shown
in Fig.2 for each of the regions or zones. The plots permit a
comparison of the observed data with the expected (fitted by EV-1)
values, particular for the longer return periods. The 2SE
confidence limits are also sketched in the plots and used to
determine possible outliers where such are suspected to be
significant.
Outliers are defined by Tomlinson (1980, p. 9) as values that
plot inconsistently with the rest of the data. In the present study
a value that plots outside the confidence interval defined by twice
the standard error of estimate (2SE1 is considered as an outlier.
On the whole the fitting of the EV-1 appears satisfactory for at
least three reasons:
(a) the EV-1 distribution seems to fit the whole series well for
all the regions;
(b) the chi-square value of goodness of fit is not abnormally
high, or highly significant (except for the 0.2 h duration for
zones III and IV);
(c) the fitting appears to produce a good estimate of the 100-year
value as evidenced by zone II and as inferred from zones III and IVa.
The duration of 0.2 h (12 min) produces some outliers (according
to the analytical definition above) in several regions for return
periods greater than 25 years, but the possible deviation is rather
small in virtually all cases. Zone II provides a good example (and
some confident assurance) for determining the reliability of the
estimates for longer return periods, for though T = 115, all the
observed data points fall within the confidence limits, even for
the 0.2 h duration.
According to Tomlinson (1980) there are three basic reasons why
outliers occur. The values may be incorrect observations; they can
represent a rare occurrence; or they may represent an occurrence
which has resulted from a different phenomenon from that which
produced the other values in the series.
Most of the outliers observed in Fig.2 appear to be due to the
first reason, especially since many of them occur in the middle of
the plot. It appears, however, that the outliers in zones I, Vllb
and X may be due to the second reason. In the case of the 0.2 h
plot for zone I for instance, the two largest values may actually
represent some 100-year rainfall occurring in a 45-year series.
There are several ways of dealing with outliers. They may be
excluded while the parameters are recalculated. On the other
hand we may include them and select a more appropriate distribution,
fitting technique or plotting position. The deviation of the
outliers observed in the present study does not seem to justify
doing any of the above.
It can be seen from the plots in Fig.2 that the plots and
estimates are generally good for durations of 1 h and longer. The
same applies to 0.4 h durations which are not shown in the plots.
CONCLUSION
It is interesting that statistical evidence supports the
appropriateness of the Gumbel EV-1 distribution for fitting annual
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships 367
REFERENCES
Baghirathan, V.R. & Shaw, E.M. (1978) Rainfall depth-duration-
frequency studies for Sri Lanka. J. Hydrol. 37, 223-239.
Bell, F.C. (1969) Generalized rainfall-duration-frequency
relationship. J. Hydraul. Div. ASCE 95 (HYI), 311-327.
Gumbel, E.J. (1941) The return period of flood flows. Ann. Math.
Statist. 12(2), 163-190.
Gumbel, E.J. (1943) On the reliability of the chi-square test.
Ann. Math. Statist. 13, 306-317.
Hartley, H.O. (1950) The maximum F-ratio test as a short-cut test
for heteorogeneity of variance. Biometrika 37, 308-312.
Hershfield, D.M. (1962) Extreme rainfall relationships. J. Hydraul.
Div. ASCE (HY6), 73-92.
Natural Environment Research Council (1975) Flood Studies Report,
vols I and II. Natural Environment Research Council, London.
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in annual rainfall values in Nigeria. In: The West African
Monsoon Experiment (WAMEX) (Symp. P r o c , ed. by D.O.Adefolalu) ,
368-455.
Okulaja, F.O. (1980) Trends in rainfall regime along the Nigerian
coastline during the pre-sahelian drought era. In: The West
African Monsoon Experiment (WAMEX) (Symp. P r o c , ed. by
D.O.Adefolalu), 488-503.
Oyebande, L. (1980) Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves and
maps for Nigeria. Occasional Pap. Series, no. 2, Department of
Geography, Univ. of Lagos (in press).
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Schulz, E.F. (1973) Problems in Applied Hydrology. Water Resources
Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
Tomlinson, A.I. (1980) The frequency of high intensity rainfall in
New Zealand. Pt. 1, Water and Soil Tech. Publ. no. 19, National
Water and Soil Conservation Organization, Wellington, New Zealand.
Yevjevich, V. (1972) Probability and Statistics in Hydrology. Water
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