1. A system has four independent components--A, B, C, and D.

The
probability that each component works is given by P(A) = .95, P(B) = .90,
P(C) = .99, and P(D) = .90. What is the probability that the entire system
works properly (no component fails)? What is the probability that at
least one of the four components works properly?

2. If P(A) = .4, P(B) =.2, and P(A and B) = .08, are A and B independent?
Are they mutually exclusive?

3. What is the probability that a shipment of 100 fruit will have no more
than 6 rotten fruits if the probability that any one fruit is rotten is .04?

4. If the probability that a hitter gets a base hit on any at bat is .27, what is
the probability that the first base hit will occur on the fourth at bat?
What is the expected number of at bats it will take to get the first hit?

5. Suppose that when you are tested for strep throat, the test is positive for
98 percent of people who have the disease. However, the test also is
positive for 1 percent of people who do not have the disease. Suppose
that in a large group of third-graders, 7 percent actually have strep
throat.

What is the probability that a third-grader chosen at random will test

positively for strep?

What is the probability that a third-grader who tests positively for strep
actually will have the disease?

Comment on whether you think this is an effective test.

6. It has been observed over many samples that the probability that more
than 3 eggs in a carton of twelve are broken is 5%. Suppose that you are
asked to calculate the probability that 2 of the next 20 cartons of eggs
will have three or more broken eggs. Explain carefully what this
question asks you to calculate. What is the answer? Explain why it
would or would not be appropriate to use the normal approximation to
the binomial to make this calculation.

7. An archer has a probability of hitting a bullseye of .6. What is the

probability that the archer will hit 40 bullseyes in the next 70 shots?
Explain why it would or would not be appropriate to use the normal
approximation to the binomial in this case.

8. Suppose that for a very large sample of students, the mean time to finish
a problem on a calculus exam has ranged from 8.5 to 17.25 minutes, with
a uniform distribution. What is the probability that the next student will
take between 12 and 15 minutes to do the problem?

Suppose instead that the mean time to finish the problem has been
normally distributed, with a mean of 13.65 hours and a standard
deviation of 3.75 hours. What is the probability that the next student will
take between 12 and 15 minutes to do the problem?

9. An automobile manufacturer claims that the gas mileage on its car is 35

miles per gallon. A consumer group is skeptical and thinks that the
mileage is less. State the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.

10. The heights of adult women are normally distributed with a mean of 65
inches and a standard deviation of 2 inches. If Rachel is at the 99th
percentile for height, how tall is she?
11. If you were shown a normal distribution where the mean is 50 and
about 2.5 percent of the distribution is at 70 or above, what would you
estimate the standard deviation of the distribution to be?

12. A study compares the SAT scores of students who take a particular prep
course with students who do not take the course. The study reports that
the 95 percent confidence interval for the difference between the mean
test score of the prepped students minus the mean of the non-prepped
students is (9,23). If a is the true mean for prepped students and b is
the true mean for unprepped students, write an equation that describes
the confidence interval in terms of a and b.

13. If someone told you that your z-score for cholesterol is 1.50, what does
this say about your cholesterol?

14. A random sample of the costs of repair jobs at a muffler shop produces a
mean of $127.95 and a standard deviation of $24.03. If the size of the
sample is 40, what is a 90 percent confidence interval for the average
cost of a repair at this shop?

15. Suppose that test scores on a chemistry final have a mean of 75 with a
standard deviation of 12. Scores on a calculus final have a mean of 80
with a standard deviation of 8. If you had gotten an 81 in chemistry and
an 84 in calculus, in which course did you do better relative to the rest of
the class? Justify your answer.

16. In a test of the null hypothesis that the mean is 10, a sample produces a
mean of 13.4 with a P-value of .017

Which of the following do we know?

(A) the probability of Type I error
(B) the probability of Type II error
(C) the significance level chosen for the test
(D) the power of the test
17. Loaves of bread at a bakery follow approximately a normal distribution.
You find that 10 percent of loaves weigh less than 15.34 ounces and 20
percent of loaves weight more than 16.31 ounces. What are the mean and
standard deviation for the distribution of the weights of the loaves of
bread?

18. Suppose that you are asked to conduct an exit poll to determine the
proportion of people who voted Democratic in a precinct. How large a
sample would you need to take to have a margin of error no larger than
.08?

19. A pain reliever claims that it has at least 200 milligrams of an active
ingredient in each tablet. However, a sample is conducted and finds that
out of 70 tablets, the mean is 194.3 milligrams with a standard deviation
of 21 milligrams. What is the null hypothesis? What is the alternative
hypothesis? What is the P-value?

20. Out of a sample of 100 college seniors, 34 indicated that they think they
made the wrong choice of college. What is a 90 percent confidence
interval for the percentage of all college seniors who think they made the
wrong choice?