ALUMNO: TORRES GAMBOA DENAN WILLI

Fragmentos de Papers sobre la realidad problematica

Abstract

Optimal replacement of a firm's capital is described in the framework of Solow-type

vintage capital models. The firm controls the investment into new capital and
scrapping of obsolete capital. The embodied technological change involves a
continuous component and technological innovations (breakthroughs, technology
shocks). The provided analytic and numeric investigation reveals the qualitative
structure of optimal regimes. It demonstrates that the optimal investment is zero
immediately before and after a technological breakthrough (direct anticipation effect)
and contains a set of zero-investment boundary intervals (anticipation echoes)
before the breakthrough time. The optimal capital lifetime oscillates around an
interior balanced growth trajectory before and switches to a new balanced trajectory
after the breakthrough.

Technological innovations, economic renovation, and anticipation effects.

Journal of Mathematical Economics. 46. 1064-1078.
10.1016/j.jmateco.2010.08.002

Hritonenko, Natalia & Yatsenko, Yuri. (2010).

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Abstract
Accurate predictions of equipment failure times are necessary to improve replacement and
spare parts inventory decisions. Most of the existing decision models focus on using
population-specific reliability characteristics, such as failure time distributions, to develop
decision-making strategies. Since these distributions are unaffected by the underlying
physical degradation processes, they do not distinguish between the different degradation
characteristics of individual components of the population. This results in less accurate
failure predictability and hence less accurate replacement and inventory decisions. In this
paper, we develop a sensor-driven decision model for component replacement and spare
parts inventory. We integrate a degradation modeling framework for computing remaining life
distributions using condition-based in situ sensor data with existing replacement and
inventory decision models. This enables the dynamic updating of replacement and inventory
decisions based on the physical condition of the equipment.

Sensor-drivenSensor-driven prognostic models for equipment replacement and spare

parts inventory
Alaa H. Elwany &Nagi Z. Gebraeel
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Abstract

Fleet management of mobile machinery in the mechanized mining environment is essential

to the economic exploitation of an orebody. Due to the complex nature of the machines and
the environment in which they operate, effectively managing such a fleet proves to be a
challenge currently not fully understood or addressed by mining houses. With constant
pressures on increasing production figures and cutting costs, in addition to the global strain
on machine lead times, the management of trackless equipment has become a top priority.
A study was undertaken by Sandvik, with input from Anglo Platinum, in an effort to provide a
solution to their customers. The aim was to provide a tool to determine the optimal time to
replace a machine based on actual data, using lifecycle cost calculations and the theory of
vehicle replacement given a specific customer environment. The factors affecting this
decision were determined, quantified and inputted into a model, which can calculate the
optimal replacement age of a machine. The objective of such was to provide an indication of
the most economical point to replace a given machine in a given environment in order to
extract the most value for the mine. This can be used to plan and motivate capital
expenditure as well as optimize machine operating costs.

NUROCK, D. and PORTEOUS, C. Methodology to determine the optimal replacement

age of mobile mining machines. Third International Platinum Conference ‘Platinum in
Transformation’, The Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 2008.
Methodology to determine the optimal replacement age of mobile mining machines
D. NUROCK and C. PORTEOUS
Sandvik Mining

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 Abstract
As assets age, they generally deteriorate, resulting in rising operating and maintenance
costs and decreasing salvage values. In this paper a comprehensive Dynamic
Programming-based optimisation solution methodology is used to solve the equipment
replacement optimisation problem on the replacement of conveyor belts at a Gold Mining
company in Zimbabwe. Given a mining setup with one and two-year old conveyor belts the
ultimate objective is to keep or replace the conveyor belt such that the overall cost of
material handling is minimised within a five-year period. The findings reveal that this mining
system should replace conveyor belts yearly. It is concluded that, an equipment
replacement policy for conveyor belts is a necessity in a mining system so as to achieve an
optimal contribution to the economic value that a mining system may accrue within a period
of time.
In this paper a comprehensive Dynamic Programming-based optimisation solution
methodology is used to solve the equipment replacement optimisation problem on the
replacement of conveyor belts at a Gold Mining company in Zimbabwe. Given a mining
setup with one and two-year old conveyor belts the ultimate objective is to keep or replace
the conveyor belt such that the overall cost of material handling is minimised within a five-
year period. The findings reveal that this mining system should replace conveyor belts
yearly. It is concluded that, an equipment replacement policy for conveyor belts is a
necessity in a mining system so as to achieve an optimal contribution to the economic
value that a mining system may accrue within a period of time.
In this study, a conveyor belt is regarded as a machine comprising of the rollers,
mountings and rubber lining. Mitchell (1998) asserts that replacement theory seeks to
answer the question: What is the optimum economic life of this piece of equipment?
According to Vorster (2006) surface mining equipment has a finite life. Eschenbach
(2003) identified five reasons for the replacement of equipment, and these are: reduced
performance of ageing equipment, altered requirements for using the equipment,
obsolescence due to a new improved model, the risk of catastrophic failure or unplanned
replacement, and item shifts between renting, leasing and owning. Surface earthmoving
equipment is classified as a fixed asset and replacements are funded from captal
expenditure budgets. Therefore the Return of Investment (ROI) is maximised when
replacement occurs at the optimal economic life of the equipment (Mellal et al., 2013;
Fallahnezhad et al., 2014 Gress et al., 2014). The economic life is defined as the age
that minimises the average owning and operating costs (Mitchell, 1998; Fan et al., 2011;
Rahimdel et al., 2013; Fallahnezhad et al., 2014). This includes the purchase, operating
and maintenance cost, less any salvage value (du Plessis, 2007).

Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences ISSN 2039-2117 (online) ISSN 2039-9

340 (print) MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy
Application of the Equipment Replacement Dynamic Programming Model in
Conveyor Belt Replacement: Case Study of a Gold Mining Company
David C. Zvipore Department of Statistics and Operations Research,
Philimon Nyamugure Department of Statistics and Operations
Daniel Maposa* School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
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abstract
The requirement of equipment improvement in order to satisfy the safety and reliability of
sys-tem motivates the development of technology. The presence or expectation of
technologically better equip-ment will influence managerial decisions on whether to invest in
the maintenance of current equipment, invest in replacement with an equivalent model,
replacement with a higher technology model currently available on the market, or wait for a
potentially even better technology to appear in the near future. Hence, the considera-tion of
technological change is a very important aspect for maintenance and replacement decisions.
This paper aims to define a model that allows us to gain insight into how
maintenance/replacement policies will be influ-enced by the expectation of future
technology. We then use stochastic dynamic programming (i.e., Markov decision process) to
solve for the optimal maintenance and replacement policy of the equipment as a function of
performance and cost. Finally, we illustrate the problem through several numerical
examples.
of the most important objectives for the main-tenance managers is to balance the
maintenance ac-tion costs with the investment cost. There is an in-tensive research to
provide the most appropriate strategies for organizing a set of maintenance actions generally
based on complex degradation models to optimize a decision criterion. These models
usually consider different maintenance actions from the “as good as new” replacement by an
identical item, im-perfect maintenance which restores the item to an acceptable condition
and minimal or “as bad as old” repair. They do not allow us to take into account the
appearance of new technology with lower operating and maintenance costs, smaller failure
rates, higher quality and output rates. This information is impor-tant for managers to decide
the replacement invest-ment plan. On the other side, the models devoted to the optimization
of the investment planning with the introduction of the technological change (TC) are
generally based on the observations of the economi-cal performance of the maintenance
process. The proposed models do not consider the diversity of maintenance decisions
tackled by the deterioration-based maintenance models.

OptimalOptimalOptimalOptimal Maintenance and Replacement Decisions under

Technological Change
P.Khanh Nguyen Thi, Thomas G. Yeung & Bruno Castanier Ecole des Mines de
Nantes/IRCCyN, 44307 Nantes, France

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 Abstract

The problem of an optimal strategy of machine maintenance and replacement over an

infinite horizon is formulated as a linear programming problem. Computational experience on
real data is given including sensitivity of the LP solution to the maximum life of the machine
and to various parameters of the model includ-ing discount factor, the method of computing
depreciation, effect of rebuilding, maintenance and rebuild costs.

A number of papers on when to optimally replace an aging or obsolescent machine have

appeared in the management science literature. For example, there are the papers of
Derman [2], Eppen [4], Klein [9] and Kolesar [10], [11] containing Markovian models of
machine deterioration or failure. Other papers include the dynamic programming model of
Bellman [1] and the papers by Eisen and Liebowitz [3] and Kamien and Schwartz [8]. A
survey of the literature to 1965 is given by McCall [12] and the book edited by Jardine [7]
contains some recent research on the machine replacement problem. Wagner's book [15]
also contains a fairly extensive discussion of machine replacement models. The majority of
there papers and books contain quantitative models that are intended primarily to provide
qualitative insights into the machine replacement decision process. By contrast, this paper
reports on a machine replacement model that allows computation of optimal maintenance
and re-placement policies from the appropriate cost data. Specifically, we give an infinite
horizon deterministic dynamic programming formulation of the maintenance and
replacement problem which can be solved as a linear programr ming problem.
Computational experience using the linear programming al-gorithm MPSX on the IBM 360
system is given for a realistic problem. It is important at the onset to comment upon the
simplification in-herent in our deterministic model of a decision process studied as a sto-
chastic process by most of the authors mentioned abone. First, our model reflects the
increasing probability of failure of a machine by maintenance costs which increase with time.
Moreover, our model can be easily general-ized to incorporate stochastic failure if the
appropriate probability

MASS. INST. TECH. Sovf-28 1972 DEWEY LHMART

Optimal Machine Maintenance and Replacement by Linear Programming by J. S.
D'Aversa and J. F. Shapiro* WP 609-72 August 1972

*The authors would like to express their gratitude to Eastern Gas and Fuel Associates for
having provided test data and computer time. The model of this paper grew out of a related
model previously developed at Eastern Gas and Fuel