Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia 2018 National
Elections Scene Setter
July 10, 2018

Cambodia is now holding its sixth general election. We request your assessment of the
following issues:
Q1. What is the balance of power between the main political parties in Cambodia at
the present time, especially the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) and FUNCINPEC
(Front uni national pour un Cambodge indépendant, neutre, pacifique et
coopératif/National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and
Cooperative Cambodia)?
ANSWER: In 2013 there were 9.67 million registered voters on the electoral roll in
Cambodia. In 2017, when the commune elections were held, there were 7.8 million
registered voters. There are 8.3 million voters registered for this year’s elections.
Voter turnout at the 2013 general elections was 68.5%, the lowest since the UNTAC
(United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia) held election in May 1993. Voter
turnout for the commune elections in 2017 was 90.37% the highest since 1993.
The results of the 2013 national elections were:
Results
Party
Votes % Seats
Cambodian People’s Party 3,235,969 48.83% 68 / 123
Cambodia National Rescue Party 2,946,176 44.46% 55 / 123
FUNCINPEC 242,413 3.66% 0 / 123
League for Democracy Party 68,389 1.03% 0 / 123
Khmer Anti-Poverty Party 43,222 0.65% 0 / 123
Cambodian Nationality Party 38,123 0.58% 0 / 123
Khmer Economic Development Party 33,715 0.51% 0 / 123
Democratic Republican Party 19,152 0.29% 0 / 123
The ruling CPP received 48.83% of the vote in 2013 compared to the Cambodian
National Rescue Party (CNRP) which received 44.46% of the votes. The CPP won 68
seats in the National Assembly, the CNRP won 55 seats. They were the only parties to
win seats.
 2

Twelve political parties contested the 2017 commune elections. The parties and the
election results are listed below. An inverted red triangle indicates a drop in vote from
the previous commune elections held in 2012, while a green triangle indicates an
increase in votes from the 2012commune elections.
Results of the 2017 Commune Election
Party Votes % Chiefs +/– Councillors +/–

Cambodian People's Party 3,540,056 50.76 1,156 6,503

436 1,789

Cambodia National Rescue Party 3,056,824 43.83 489 5,007

449 2,052
FUNCINPEC 132,319 1.90 0 1 28 123
League for Democracy Party 122,882 1.76 0 4 4
Khmer National United Party 78,724 1.13 1 1 24 24
Beehive Social Democratic Party 31,334 0.45 0 1 1
Grassroots Democracy Party 4,981 0.07 0 5 5
Cambodian Nationality Party 2,161 0.03 0 0 1
Cambodian Youth Party 1,505 0.02 0 0
Cambodia Indigenous People's
1,272 0.02 0 0
Democracy Party
Khmer Power Party 1,035 0.01 0 0
Republican Democracy Party 818 0.01 0 0
Invalid/blank votes 133,484
Total 7,107,395 100 1,646 11,572
Registered voters/turnout 7,865,033 90.37
Source: National Election Committee
Analysis: The CNRP was officially declared illegal and dissolved by order of the
Supreme Court in November 2017 leaving the CPP in a commanding position to win a
super majority in the next National Assembly. Cambodia’s economy is growing at
around 7% and this will benefit the CPP.
A key question is which political parties will the 3 million CNRP voters support?
None of the minor political parties that contested elections in 2013 and 2017 has a
strong support base. FUNCINPEC came in third in both elections but its support
dropped from 3.66% of the vote in 2013 to 1.9% in 2017. The decline of the
FUNCINPEC is a long-term trend.
All of the other political parties received under 2% of votes cast.
On 25 February 2018, Cambodia held elections for the Senate. The voter base
comprised local level commune councilors. It should be noted that when the CNRP
was declared illegal, its 5,007 councilors were removed. They did not vote in the
Senate election. The CPP won all 58 seats. The voting results are displayed below.
 3

Results of Senate Elections, February 25, 2018

Party Votes % Seats +/–
Cambodian People's Party 11,202 95.95 58 +12
FUNCINPEC 276 2.36 0 0
Khmer National United Party 182 1.55 0 0
Cambodian Youth Party 3 0.20 0 0
Total 11,670 100 58 +1
Registered voters/turnout 11,695 99.79 – –
Q2. How do the parties conduct their election campaigns?
ANSWER: Twenty political parties have been officially registered to contest the July
29, 2018 general election (see table below).
Political Parties Registered to Contest July 2018 National Elections
Party Ballot number
Khmer National United Party 1
Our Motherland Party 2
Ponleu Thmey Party 3
Cambodian Nationality Party 4
Khmer Rise Party 5
Beehive Social Democratic Party 6
Grassroots Democracy Party 7
Republican Democratic Party 8
Reaksmey Khemra Party 9
League for Democracy Party 10
Khmer Republican Party 11
Khmer Anti-Poverty Party 12
FUNCINPEC 13
Khmer Economic Development Party 14
Cambodian Youth Party 15
Dharmacracy Party 16
Khmer Will Party 17
Cambodia Indigenous Democracy Party 18
Khmer United Party 19
Cambodian People's Party 20
The official election campaign began on July 7 and will end on July 27. Political parties
commenced their three-week campaign with political rallies.
Political parties are permitted to conduct public rallies, put up posters and distribute
their political platform and proposed policies. They are also permitted to use social
media, newspapers, radio and television. Since the political crackdown in late 2017,
however, many independent newspapers and radio stations have been shut down.
 4

The CPP rally, featuring Prime Minister Hun Sen, drew an estimated 60,000
supporters.
The League for Democracy Party’s kick-off rally attracted 15,000 supporters, while
2,000 attended FUNCINPEC’s rally and only 300 turned up for the rally held by the
Khmer Will Party.
Because the CPP retains control over the bureaucracy, security forces, mass media
including national radio and television, and has the ability to influence the Courts and
the National Election Committee, there is no doubt that it will be re-elected with an
increased majority on July 29th.
Q3. Who are the key internal and external actors that will impact on the elections?
ANSWER: The results of the July 2018 national election have been largely shaped by
the political and legal maneuvers already carried out by Hun Sen and the CPP,
including the passage of the Law on Political Parties. The CPP will control all aspects
of the election including voting, tabulation of votes and resolving any protests.
The CNRP has been dissolved, its leader arrested and over one hundred CNRP deputies
have fled abroad. Sam Rainsy, the former head of the CNRP, has called for a boycott
of the elections. This could depress voter turnout and lead to a landslide victory by the
CPP because CNRP supporters have no leaders in the country or a mechanism to
express their opposition to the CPP. Other CNRP officials have yet to endorse Rainsy’s
call.
Three political parties have openly opposed the boycott and appealed to the National
Election Committee to take action. The three parties, Beehive Social Democratic Party,
Khmer Republic Party and Grassroots Democratic Party (GDP), hope to win over
supporters of the now illegal CNRP.
Prime Minister Hun Sen has strongly criticized the call for a boycott and said it will
have little effect.
The GDP comprises former Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) officials,
commune leaders and intellectuals. Its leader, Kem Ley, was assassinated in July 2016.
In the 2017 commune elections the GDP contested twenty-seven communes and won
five seats in three communes. The GDP was the third highest vote getter in the twenty-
seven communes that it contested after the CPP and CNRP.
In 2018, after the CNRP was disbanded, Prime Minister Hun Sen reallocated its 55
National Assembly seats to other political parties based on voting results in the 2013
elections. FUNCINPEC was allocated 41 seats, the LDP 6 seats, the Khmer Anti-Poverty
Party (KAPP) 5 seats, the Cambodian Nationality Party two seats and the Khmer
Economic Development Party 1 seat. Both the GDP and KAPP declined to accept these
seats. Their stance could lead to votes by supporters of the disbanded CNRP.
External
In March 2018, New Zealand, on behalf of a group of forty-five countries including the
United States, Germany, Australia and United Kingdom, issued a statement on the
human rights situation in Cambodia to the United Nations Human Rights Council in
Geneva. This statement expressed “deep concern” over the decline of civil and
 5

political rights in Cambodia and urged the Hun Sen government to reinstate the
opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party.
The United States and the European Union later withdrew funding for the elections in
response to the dissolution of the CNRP. United States Congressmen introduced the
Cambodian Democracy Act of 2018 calling for sanctions and a ban on Cambodian
senior officials travelling to America. On June 12, the U.S. Treasury issued sanctions
against General Hing Bun Hieng, the head of Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit, for his complicity
in serious human rights abuses.
Australia has been critical of Cambodian government actions that have undermined
democracy. Prime Minister Hun Sen threatened physical harm to Cambodian-
Australians who planned to demonstrate against him when Hun Sen attended the
Australia-ASEAN Summit in Sydney. Later, an official of Australia’s Department of
Foreign Affairs and Trade criticized Hun Sen’s call to violence. Hun Sen responded by
telling Australia “to but out” and not interfere in Cambodia’s domestic affairs.
In April 2018, Japan announced $90 million in loans and grants to Cambodia and called
for free and fair elections. Japan is providing support for the electoral process, such as
ballot boxes. This month Japan told the UN’s 38th session on Human Rights that it was
concerned about the current political situation in Cambodia and urged all stakeholders
to promote dialogue. Mu Sochua, deputy leader of the CNRP has called on Japan to
withdraw its support for the national election.
A coalition of overseas Khmer has issued an Appeal to create a Supreme National
Council of the Kingdom (SNCK) and a Khmer United National Transitional Authority
(KUNTA);in parallel with similar bodies set up by UNTAC in the early 1990s.
After the elections the ethnic Cambodian communities in the United States, Australia
and Europe are likely to mount a campaign to protest the election results and call on
their governments not to recognize Hun Sen. No foreign government is likely to act on
these demands.
China is providing the largest financial support for the conduct of Cambodia’s national
election including computers, printers, photocopiers, cameras, ballot boxes, and
voting booths. Russia will provide election observers.
Q4. What are the possible outcomes of the election?
ANSWER: The most likely outcome of the election will be a landslide victory for the
CPP with a majority of the votes cast. The would mark the first time since 1998 that
the CPP will have received more than fifty percent of the votes cast.
What remains uncertain is what percent of voters will turn out. The 2013 national
election provides evidence that over half the voters are likely to participate in 2018.
But it seems unlikely that turnout will exceed 90% achieved in the 2017 commune
elections.
What also remains unclear is what the CNRP voter base of 3 million will do. If CNRP
supporters go to the polls which political party will they vote for? Will they spoil their
ballots? And, how many CNRP supporters will boycott the election?
It is possible that one or two minority parties will gain seats in the National Assembly.
FUNCINPEC and the League for Democracy Party are the two most likely candidates.
 6

Q5. What will the domestic situation in Cambodia look like after the election? Will the
losers conduct protests and demonstrations?
ANSWER: In 2013, the opposition CNRP accused the CPP Government of widespread
voter fraud and this led to street demonstrations. There was a swing in public support
for the CNRP in the 2017 commune elections.
In 2018, if credible charges of vote fraud and vote rigging emerge, Cambodia could
experience a period of social unrest by young voters and CNRP supporters.
The difference in 2018 is that the CPP is the only political party with a mass base. The
other nineteen political parties are weak. If CNRP supporters do conduct protests and
demonstrations this could incite CPP supporters to attack them.
Public demonstrations, however, will not destabilize Hun Sen’s government. But
Cambodia will remain politically polarized. Around 44% of the registered voters
supported the CNRP in the 2013 national elections and the 2017 commune elections.
Q6. How will the new Cambodian Government manage and run the Kingdom?
ANSWER: The CPP will continue to run the Government as before. In the past when
the opposition boycotted the National Assembly after a disputed election the CPP
continued in office and conducted business as usual. If any of the minor parties are
successful in electing deputies, the CPP may reach out to them to form a coalition
government to provide a veneer of legitimacy. FUNCINPEC is the most likely candidate
to work with the CPP.
The CPP has already taken steps to bring about a generational transfer in the military.
Several top military officials are running for election and will be replaced if they are
successful. There could be ministerial changes in Cabinet as well.
Q7. What will be the new Government's domestic and external policies?
ANSWER: The Hun Sen government will continue along the same development path
as previously. During the election campaign Hun Sen promised to raise the salaries of
factory workers, civil servants, and the military. He also promised to reduce the cost
of electricity.
In terms of foreign policy, Cambodia will rely on increased support from China to make
up for the deterioration in relations with the U.S. and EU. Hun Sen has vowed to
oppose foreign interference during the election campaign. After the elections
Cambodia will continue to rely on membership in ASEAN because that provides
insulation from external pressure.
Hun Sen will be emboldened by his electoral victory to take a hard line towards the
United States, EU members and any other country that is critical of his rule and the
conduct of the elections.
Q8. What are the likely external responses to the election's outcomes?
ANSWER: It should be recalled that when the CPP ordered the dissolution of the CNRP
it was on the grounds of attempting to overthrow the government with U.S. support.
 7

The United States and the EU are likely to persist in their suspension of aid and possibly
impose new sanctions against Cambodia. They will not accept a CPP victory under
present conditions where there is no credible opposition.
Japan and Australia are likely to continue their aid and development programs aimed
at the welfare of the Cambodian people.
Q9. What price will the CPP have to pay for its win in the election?
ANSWER: The CPP will face a substantially divided Cambodia. Three million CNRP
supporters will not be reconciled with a Hun Sen government that has an increased
majority and that will continue to rule with a heavy hand.
The Hun Sen government will have to contend with continued opprobrium from the
United States and EU members.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Cambodia 2018 National Elections Scene

Setter,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 10, 2018. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.