Professional Documents
Culture Documents
For
Washington Methanol Policy Forum
June 13, 2017 | Washington D.C.
By
Peter Gross, Natural Gas Markets Team,
U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Coal (directly or through coking gas) accounts for 85% of the feedstock for China’s
methanol production capacity, and natural gas makes up the remainder. China will
continue to use coal as the major feedstock in the future, but demand in the long
term could be met by higher methanol imports (natural gas-based).
• Independent refiners have increased blending of higher octane components into the
gasoline stream in the past few years. Most of these components (methanol, mixed
aromatics, and others) are not taxed, and are cost competitive with gasoline.
Methanol is the least cost blending component and should remain competitive in the
longer term.
• China’s gasoline demand in future IEOs will include methanol blends (under the
category of gasoline).
140 80%
120 70%
Coal
Oil 60%
100
Natural gas
Hydroelectricity 50%
80
Nuclear
40%
Other renewables
60 Coal share
30%
40
20%
20 10%
0 0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
80
60
Renewables
40
Petroleum and other liquid fuels
20
Natural gas
Nuclear
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: EIA
Electricity
25 Natural gas
Other liquids
20 Jet fuel
15 Diesel
10
5 Motor gasoline
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
• Direct blending
– Blending standards vary by region
– Issues with high levels of blending
600
Other uses of methanol in fuel (DME and industrial sector direct burn)
500
Methanol derivatives to gasoline (MTBE + MTG)
300
200
100
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Argus Media group
Notes: DME = Dimethyl Ether; MTBE = Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether; and MTG = methanol-to-gasoline
70,000
60,000
Chemical and Plastics Industries 2%
40,000 Other
30,000
35%
20,000
10,000
27%
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Argus Media group
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Seattle Times, The News Tribune, Sightline Institute