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On the Development of Power Transformer Failure

Models: an Australian Case Study


D. Martin, J. Marks, T. Saha, O. Krause G. Russell, A. Alibegovic-Memisevic
Power and Energy Systems
The University of Queensland Powerlink Queensland
St. Lucia, Australia Virginia, Australia

Abstract—Power transformers are expected to operate reliably voltage ranging between 22 kV and 500 kV. Generator step-up
for decades. Loading guides and models exist to estimate the power transformers were not included because these are
functional life remaining of transformer cellulosic insulation. normally owned by the power station, and not by a Utility.
However, failure is essentially probabilistic and dependent on Similarly to other developed countries, a significant
many factors, and so statistical models to ascertain the expected proportion of assets were installed in the 1960s. Given that the
number of failures for a power transformer fleet are highly working life of a power transformer is often assumed to be 40
desirable when planning future investment. Given their low to 50 years (based on n-1 planning criteria and loading guide),
failure rate, approximately 1% per transformer year, a fleet size there are many units which have exceeded this age yet the
much larger than an individual Utility owns is required for
Utility will keep them in service unless there is sufficient
statistically significant results. Therefore, a large study was
business reason to replace them.
performed on the Utilities in Australia who together operate
around 6,000 power transformers. For this, data on 626 failures The aim of this research project was to develop a tool the
and retirements, over a fifteen year period, were collected. The Utilities can use to evaluate the effect of replacement strategy
Weibull distribution was used to determine failure rate for age, on the reliability of their system. Previous studies have
voltage class of transformer, and failure mode. Finally, the indicated that the failure rate of a power transformer is
development of a tool to model future replacements is discussed. approximately 1% per transformer year [3], [4]. Given that a
Utility typically operates several hundred power transformers,
Index Terms-- Failure analysis, fault location, power system
reliability, power transformers, reliability.
only a few failures can be expected per year, and so there can
be relatively few failures to analyze. Consequently, a
I. INTRODUCTION statistical survey was performed to cover as much of the
power transformer fleet, operated by the Utilities in Australia,
As part of the Australian regulatory framework, the as possible. Firstly, this study involved determining failure
Utilities are obligated to provide an investment plan every five rates of power transformers. Then secondly, developing a tool
years, which includes forthcoming asset replacement [1]. In to model how the number of failures would change into the
this plan, the Utilities identify the power transformers that future using different scenarios of replacement.
they believe represent increased risk. This risk calculation is
Number operating Cumulative distribution
based on the probability of transformer failure for various
failure modes and on future loading forecasts. This forms a list 250 100000
of power transformers which are recommended to be replaced,

Cumulative distribution (n)


200 10000
along with justification and cost. Statistical models are
Number operating (n)

beneficial if the Utility can optimize the estimation of the 150 1000
likely number of failures on their network, into the near future,
using different investment strategies. 100 100

Data on the power transformer age distribution for 2015/16 50 10


was collected from the Australian Utilities [2], and is
presented in Figure 1. The criteria of a power transformer was 0 1
one stepping the voltage down to either subtransmission or 1 5 9 1317212529333741454953576165697377818589
distribution medium voltage, and having a power rating ≥ 1 Age (years)
MVA. In general, the investigated transformers had a primary
This work was funded by Australian Research Council, Ausgrid, Ergon Figure 1. 2015/16 asset age profile of Australian power transformer
Energy, Powerlink Queensland, TransGrid and Wilson Transformer fleet.
Company

978-1-5386-2212-4/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE


The industry commonly takes into account the remaining test), suspended (unit was retired before failure) and failed.
life of the paper insulation of a transformer when determining Thus, in addition to data on withdrawn units, information was
replacement [5], [6], based on the tensile strength of the paper. also collected on those which were still functional.
Previous surveys have indicated many failures occurring due
to the on-load tap changer (OLTC) and bushings, which are The collected data was truncated to a 15 year window
obviously independent of the winding paper condition. Thus, (2000 – 2015), because most of the Utilities were unable to
an algorithm to help the Utilities determine when to replace a provide data prior to 2000. The failure rate for a given age of
transformer based upon its reliability is highly desirable. transformer can be expressed as (2), where ‘n failures’ and
‘n survivors’ represent the numbers of transformers failing and
Several surveys have been performed. The reliability of surviving age i.
the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) power transformer ()
fleet was investigated in the mid 90s, finding a low failure rate = (2)
() ()
of 1% [3]. However, twenty years have passed and so
improvements in technology and management may have The reason for failure or retirement was noted where
changed the failure rate. A CIGRE study, published in 2015, possible and was sorted into bushings, OLTCs, windings,
reviewed international failure rates for power transformers [7]. insulation, other and unknown failure modes (as these had
However, only data for power transformers with a primary been identified in previous surveys as the main modes causing
voltage of 69 kV or above were collected. In Australia a failure). For retirements, the reasons were not always
significant proportion of power transformers operate with a recorded, and so either “poor condition overall” or “network
line voltage of 22, 33 or 66 kV. Different regulatory augmentation” was used. It was noted that the Utilities did not
environments across countries may also affect the life often retire (suspended by our definition) a transformer based
expectancy of a transformer. Consequently, a new review was on one problem. Usually, the unit had a number of issues
planned. Since a Utility may withdraw a transformer due to making it either uneconomic to repair or of unacceptable
poor condition, before failure actually occurs, information on reliability.
retirements was also collected and analyzed. 14

II. DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING 12

Previous studies had used the definition of a failure being 10


one when the transformer either tripped due to the protection,
Number

8
or was removed from service within 30 minutes of an alarm
6
sounding [3]. Another definition was “costly failure”, where
the failure had caused the Utility to incur an expense of at 4
least 2% of the value of the transformer [3]. A Utility may 2
then have an option to repair the transformer rather than
0
replace it. Given that the Utilities have different cost
structures, and may in the same circumstance come to a
Age (years)
different decision on whether to repair or replace, failure was
defined for this study as when the transformer had to be
permanently removed from service (non-repairable). Of the Figure 2. Age distribution of failed power transformers.
twenty Utilities operating in Australia, nineteen were The distribution of failed transformers is shown in Figure
contacted and asked for information on power transformer 2. Some transformers can be seen to fail early. Therefore, to
failure and retirement. The twentieth Utility did not appear to model the data more than one Weibull distribution might be
own power transformers because it supplied off-grid required, with the first representing infant mortality [11]
communities in Western Australia. Data was sourced from failures and the second representing age-related problems.
seventeen of these Utilities, composing 97% of the Australian The number of retired units is shown in Figure 3.
power transformer fleet. The Utilities were asked for the age
of the transformer on failure or retirement, and the cause of The number of transformers which had survived by the
the event. end of the monitoring period (2015/16) is shown in Figure 4.
The number of transformers surviving each year of operation
The Weibull distribution was applied to model the failure was calculated keeping the 15 year observation window in
rate, as a function of age, using the method given in Standard mind. For instance, as long as the reporting was accurate, for a
BS61649:2008 [8]. The probability density function (PDF) is transformer installed in 2000 the survey would have 15 years
shown in (1), where ‘β’ and ‘η’ are two coefficients which of operational data available. Therefore, a failure rate could be
represent the shape and scale of the distribution, t is age. calculated for the number of units failing up to, and including,
the 15th year of operation. For the transformers surviving age
( )= ∙ ∙ (1) 16 and older, it can obviously be stated that they had survived

their first year of operation. But, it could not be determined
According to BS61649 the data is classed as either how many of their initial population had failed before 2000,
complete or non-complete, with the distinction being whether and so the pre-2000 survival data was omitted. For instance,
or not all units have failed by the end of the test. Three types for the transformers reaching 16 years in 2015, only failure
of data are used, censored (units are still functioning by end of rate for ages 2 to 16 was calculated, and the failure rate for the

978-1-5386-2212-4/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE


first year of operation was omitted. The number of survivors implying distinctly separate infant mortality and aging related
as a function of age, omitting pre-2000 data, is given in Figure failure modes. The change in mode occurred at approximately
5. Using (2) the failure rate, shown in Figure 6 was calculated 20 years.
(omitting retirements). The instantaneous failure rate (IFR)
calculated using the Weibull distribution is also shown for The ± 95% confidence intervals for the ‘β’ and ‘η’
comparison, along with its ± 95% confidence interval (CI), coefficients were calculated using the technique given in
which will be discussed in the next paragraphs. BS61649, based on work published by Bain and Engelhardt
[9] and [10]. The ‘β’ and ‘η’ coefficients determined using the
35
line characteristics, shown in Figure 7, and their ± 95%
30 confidence intervals, were then used to calculate the
25 instantaneous failure rate ‘λ’ (3) shown in Figure 6. As can be
seen, there is good agreement between the two methods to
Number

20
calculate the failure rate, although the ± 95% confidence
15 interval should be used to capture the peaks in failure rate.
10
( )= ∙ (3)
5

0 Non-parametric Weibull IFR Weibull IFR + 95% CI


3.0%
Age (years)

Instantaneous failure rate


2.5%

Figure 3. Age distribution of retired power transformers. 2.0%


250
1.5%

200 1.0%

150 0.5%
Number

0.0%
100
0 20 40 60 80
Age (years)
50

0 Figure 6. Instantaneous failure rate of investigated power transformers.


0
Age (years) -1
-2
Figure 4. Age distribution of censored transformers. y = 3.3504x - 15.82
ln(ln(1/(1-Median Rank)))

-3
2500
-4
-5 y = 0.4939x - 7.207
2000
R² = 0.9199
-6
1500
Number

-7
-8
1000
-9

500 -10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
ln(age)
0
Figure 7. Determining coefficients for Weibull distributions.
Age (years)

Figure 5. Number of transformers in population surviving each year of III. MODELLING FAILURE MODES AND DIFFERENT
age, omitting pre-2000 data. VOLTAGE CLASSES
Since previous research has indicated the failure mode
The coefficients required for use by the Weibull differs depending on the voltage class of the transformer [3],
distribution were determined graphically. As discussed in the data was split into three voltage bins, ≤ 66 kV, 66 < kV ≤
BS61649 [8], plotting ln (ln (1⁄(1 − ))) 275 and > 275 kV. These bins were chosen for the following
against ln ( ) will give a straight line if the data follows a reasons. Firstly, there had to be a sufficiently large number of
Weibull distribution. The coefficients of this line are then failures in each bin not to reduce the confidence interval; at
used to determine the ‘β’ and ‘η’ values, where ‘β’ is the least 20 failures is suggested by BS61649 [8]. Secondly, the
⁄ )
gradient of the line, and = ( . When the Utilities had to report the number of transformers in operation
median ranks of the failure data were plotted, shown in to the industry Regulator in prescribed voltage levels. It was
Figure 7, it was evident that two distributions were present, not possible to distinguish between certain voltage levels.

978-1-5386-2212-4/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE


Data on transformers operating at either 220 or 275 kV were
combined with 110 and 132 kV units, rather than higher
voltage classes, because the failure mode appeared more
consistent with the lower voltage units.
Weibull distributions for ≤ 66 kV, 66 < kV ≤ 275 and
>275 kV are shown in Figures 8 to 10. For the ≤ 66 and 66 <
kV ≤ 275 populations both the probability of retirement and

Weibull CDF
failure is given. There has been only a small number of > 275
kV transformers retired since 2000, and so there was
insufficient data on which to fit a distribution. Only one
distribution was used to model this voltage class because,
otherwise, the confidence interval would become very large
from there being only two small sets of data. The ≤ 66 kV
and 66 < kV ≤ 275 populations are similar because age-
related failures seem to begin at around 20 years old, similar
failure modes may be responsible.
The probability of a unit failing is higher than the Figure 9. Weibull distributions for failure and retirement for 66 < kV ≤
probability of it being retired over the first few decades of 275 transformers.
operation (approximately 40 years for ≤ 66 kV and 60 years 0.999

for 66 < kV ≤ 275). This implies that failure can catch the 0.990
0.950
industry unaware. Once the transformer reaches its later years 0.900
0.800
the industry may be more likely to retire it based on poor 0.700
0.600
condition, rather than retiring due to the manifestation of a 0.500
0.400
specific fault which was thought to be leading to failure. If 0.300

fewer transformers are replaced, more resource may be 0.200


Weibull CDF

required by the industry to manage the aging units. 0.100

0.999 0.050
0.990 Failures
0.950 Retirements
0.900
0.800
0.700 0.010
0.600
0.500 0.005
0.400
0.300
0.200
Weibull CDF

0.100 0.001
1.0 10.0 100.0
Age (years)
0.050

Figure 10. Weibull distribution for failure of > 275 kV transformers.


0.100

0.010
Other
Insulation
0.005
0.050 OLTC
Winding
Bushing
Unknown
0.001
1.0 10.0 100.0
Age (years)
Weibull CDF

Figure 8. Weibull distributions for failure and retirement for ≤ 66 kV


transformers. 0.010

The failure mode for these transformers was also 0.005


investigated, shown in Figures 11 and 12. Winding related
problems were the predominant mode of failure for
transformers ≤ 275kV, while higher voltage transformers had
a more mixed-mode of failure. Winding-related faults are
often by lightning or downstream surges [7], where the
resultant mechanical force distorts the conductors forming a 0.001
10.0 100.0

winding. Age (years)


Figure 11. Weibull distributions for failure and retirement for ≤ 66 kV
transformers.

978-1-5386-2212-4/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE


0.100 lightning or simply due to the inherent mechanical weakness
tested by number of close through faults.
Other

0.050
Insulation
OLTC Using a Weibull distribution to model failure was similar
Winding
Bushing to when a non-parametric distribution was used.
Unknown
Consequently, basing an algorithm to predict the likely
number of failures into the future on the Weibull distribution
is suitable. As evident from the Weibull distribution, a change
0.010
in failure mode appears to occur around twenty years. Using
one Weibull distribution to model early failures, and another
to model age-related ones, appears effective.
0.005

Replacements Failures Retirements


Replacement & CI Failure & CI Retirements & CI
90
80
70
0.001
10.0 100.0 60

Number (n)
Age (years) 50
Figure 12. Weibull distributions for failure and retirement for 66 < kV ≤ 40
275 kV transformers. 30
20
10
IV. TOOL DEVELOPMENT 0
Based on these failure rates, an algorithm is being 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
Year
developed to help the industry to better predict the number of
failures and retirements of power transformers into the near Figure 13. Estimation of future failures and retirements, for Australian
future. This will be beneficial because the Utilities have to power transformers, along with their confidence intervals (CI).
justify their investment plans to the Australian Energy
Regulator every five years. The failure rates determined from In the first few decades, a transformer is more likely to
this study are being used to estimate the number of failures fail than be retired. After either 40 years, for ≤ 66 kV units, or
and retirements expected to occur in Australia over the next 60 years for 66 < kV ≤ 275 ones, a transformer is more likely
ten years (Figure 13). The assumptions considered valid for to be retired than to fail. Also, if design related issues /
this modelling are that a withdrawn unit is replaced with a weaknesses exist, they will usually become evident earlier in
new one (it is recognized that a Utility may choose not to the transformer’s life.
replace), and that the criteria to retire a unit does not change.
The dashed lines indicate the number of events calculated REFERENCES
using ±95% confidence intervals. The upward trend in the [1] Australian Energy Regulator, Electricity Network Service Providers
Replacement Model Handbook, Australia, December 2011.
traces is a result of the fleet becoming older. This algorithm is [2] J. Marks, D. Martin, T. Saha, O. Krause, A. Alibegovic-Memisevic, G.
being evaluated and will be reported on in due course, for Russell , G. Buckley, S. Chinnarajan, M. Gibson, T. MacArthur, “An
instance the effect of maintenance is being studied. Analysis of Australian Power Transformer Failure Modes, and
Comparison with International Surveys”, IEEE AUPEC, Australia, Sep.
Future work for this algorithm includes: 2016.
[3] “Australian / New Zealand transformer reliability survey”, Western
(a) investigating using condition of transformer rather Power, Australia, 1996.
than solely age, [4] A. Petersen and P. L. Austin, “Impact of Recent Transformer Failures
and Fires Australian and New Zealand Experiences”, CIGRE, 2002.
(b) using spares as replacement rather than new units, [5] IEC 60076-7, “Power transformers - Part 7: Loading guide for oil
and immersed power transformers”, IEC Standard, Switzerland, 2005.
[6] IEEE Guide for Loading Mineral-Oil-Immersed Transformers and
(c) using network topology to relate failures to STP-Voltage Regulators, IEEE Standard C57.91–2011, 2012.
[7] Working group A2.37, “Transformer Reliability Survey”, Cigre
frequency and duration of customer outages. brochure 642, France, 2015.
[8] BS EN 61649:2008, “Weibull analysis”, BSI, UK, 2008.
Asset condition has not been investigated so far because [9] L. J. Bain and M. Engelhardt, “Simple Approximate Distributional
the Utilities have different methods to test and process data. Results for Confidence and Tolerance Limits for the Weibull
Whereas some Utilities have used a health index, there is still Distribution Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimators,”
no consensus on which method is optimal. Thus, health index Technometrics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 15-20, 1981.
[10] L. J. Bain and M. Engelhardt, “Approximate Distributional Results
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V. CONCLUSIONS Distribution,” Journal of Quality Technology, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 174-
181, 1986.
Nearly half of all power transformer failures over the past [11] J. Moubray, Reliability-Centered Maintenance, Industrial Press, New
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been initiated by surges from downstream faults or by

978-1-5386-2212-4/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE

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