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Abstract—Power transformers are expected to operate reliably voltage ranging between 22 kV and 500 kV. Generator step-up
for decades. Loading guides and models exist to estimate the power transformers were not included because these are
functional life remaining of transformer cellulosic insulation. normally owned by the power station, and not by a Utility.
However, failure is essentially probabilistic and dependent on Similarly to other developed countries, a significant
many factors, and so statistical models to ascertain the expected proportion of assets were installed in the 1960s. Given that the
number of failures for a power transformer fleet are highly working life of a power transformer is often assumed to be 40
desirable when planning future investment. Given their low to 50 years (based on n-1 planning criteria and loading guide),
failure rate, approximately 1% per transformer year, a fleet size there are many units which have exceeded this age yet the
much larger than an individual Utility owns is required for
Utility will keep them in service unless there is sufficient
statistically significant results. Therefore, a large study was
business reason to replace them.
performed on the Utilities in Australia who together operate
around 6,000 power transformers. For this, data on 626 failures The aim of this research project was to develop a tool the
and retirements, over a fifteen year period, were collected. The Utilities can use to evaluate the effect of replacement strategy
Weibull distribution was used to determine failure rate for age, on the reliability of their system. Previous studies have
voltage class of transformer, and failure mode. Finally, the indicated that the failure rate of a power transformer is
development of a tool to model future replacements is discussed. approximately 1% per transformer year [3], [4]. Given that a
Utility typically operates several hundred power transformers,
Index Terms-- Failure analysis, fault location, power system
reliability, power transformers, reliability.
only a few failures can be expected per year, and so there can
be relatively few failures to analyze. Consequently, a
I. INTRODUCTION statistical survey was performed to cover as much of the
power transformer fleet, operated by the Utilities in Australia,
As part of the Australian regulatory framework, the as possible. Firstly, this study involved determining failure
Utilities are obligated to provide an investment plan every five rates of power transformers. Then secondly, developing a tool
years, which includes forthcoming asset replacement [1]. In to model how the number of failures would change into the
this plan, the Utilities identify the power transformers that future using different scenarios of replacement.
they believe represent increased risk. This risk calculation is
Number operating Cumulative distribution
based on the probability of transformer failure for various
failure modes and on future loading forecasts. This forms a list 250 100000
of power transformers which are recommended to be replaced,
beneficial if the Utility can optimize the estimation of the 150 1000
likely number of failures on their network, into the near future,
using different investment strategies. 100 100
8
or was removed from service within 30 minutes of an alarm
6
sounding [3]. Another definition was “costly failure”, where
the failure had caused the Utility to incur an expense of at 4
least 2% of the value of the transformer [3]. A Utility may 2
then have an option to repair the transformer rather than
0
replace it. Given that the Utilities have different cost
structures, and may in the same circumstance come to a
Age (years)
different decision on whether to repair or replace, failure was
defined for this study as when the transformer had to be
permanently removed from service (non-repairable). Of the Figure 2. Age distribution of failed power transformers.
twenty Utilities operating in Australia, nineteen were The distribution of failed transformers is shown in Figure
contacted and asked for information on power transformer 2. Some transformers can be seen to fail early. Therefore, to
failure and retirement. The twentieth Utility did not appear to model the data more than one Weibull distribution might be
own power transformers because it supplied off-grid required, with the first representing infant mortality [11]
communities in Western Australia. Data was sourced from failures and the second representing age-related problems.
seventeen of these Utilities, composing 97% of the Australian The number of retired units is shown in Figure 3.
power transformer fleet. The Utilities were asked for the age
of the transformer on failure or retirement, and the cause of The number of transformers which had survived by the
the event. end of the monitoring period (2015/16) is shown in Figure 4.
The number of transformers surviving each year of operation
The Weibull distribution was applied to model the failure was calculated keeping the 15 year observation window in
rate, as a function of age, using the method given in Standard mind. For instance, as long as the reporting was accurate, for a
BS61649:2008 [8]. The probability density function (PDF) is transformer installed in 2000 the survey would have 15 years
shown in (1), where ‘β’ and ‘η’ are two coefficients which of operational data available. Therefore, a failure rate could be
represent the shape and scale of the distribution, t is age. calculated for the number of units failing up to, and including,
the 15th year of operation. For the transformers surviving age
( )= ∙ ∙ (1) 16 and older, it can obviously be stated that they had survived
their first year of operation. But, it could not be determined
According to BS61649 the data is classed as either how many of their initial population had failed before 2000,
complete or non-complete, with the distinction being whether and so the pre-2000 survival data was omitted. For instance,
or not all units have failed by the end of the test. Three types for the transformers reaching 16 years in 2015, only failure
of data are used, censored (units are still functioning by end of rate for ages 2 to 16 was calculated, and the failure rate for the
20
calculate the failure rate, although the ± 95% confidence
15 interval should be used to capture the peaks in failure rate.
10
( )= ∙ (3)
5
200 1.0%
150 0.5%
Number
0.0%
100
0 20 40 60 80
Age (years)
50
-3
2500
-4
-5 y = 0.4939x - 7.207
2000
R² = 0.9199
-6
1500
Number
-7
-8
1000
-9
500 -10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
ln(age)
0
Figure 7. Determining coefficients for Weibull distributions.
Age (years)
Figure 5. Number of transformers in population surviving each year of III. MODELLING FAILURE MODES AND DIFFERENT
age, omitting pre-2000 data. VOLTAGE CLASSES
Since previous research has indicated the failure mode
The coefficients required for use by the Weibull differs depending on the voltage class of the transformer [3],
distribution were determined graphically. As discussed in the data was split into three voltage bins, ≤ 66 kV, 66 < kV ≤
BS61649 [8], plotting ln (ln (1⁄(1 − ))) 275 and > 275 kV. These bins were chosen for the following
against ln ( ) will give a straight line if the data follows a reasons. Firstly, there had to be a sufficiently large number of
Weibull distribution. The coefficients of this line are then failures in each bin not to reduce the confidence interval; at
used to determine the ‘β’ and ‘η’ values, where ‘β’ is the least 20 failures is suggested by BS61649 [8]. Secondly, the
⁄ )
gradient of the line, and = ( . When the Utilities had to report the number of transformers in operation
median ranks of the failure data were plotted, shown in to the industry Regulator in prescribed voltage levels. It was
Figure 7, it was evident that two distributions were present, not possible to distinguish between certain voltage levels.
Weibull CDF
failure is given. There has been only a small number of > 275
kV transformers retired since 2000, and so there was
insufficient data on which to fit a distribution. Only one
distribution was used to model this voltage class because,
otherwise, the confidence interval would become very large
from there being only two small sets of data. The ≤ 66 kV
and 66 < kV ≤ 275 populations are similar because age-
related failures seem to begin at around 20 years old, similar
failure modes may be responsible.
The probability of a unit failing is higher than the Figure 9. Weibull distributions for failure and retirement for 66 < kV ≤
probability of it being retired over the first few decades of 275 transformers.
operation (approximately 40 years for ≤ 66 kV and 60 years 0.999
for 66 < kV ≤ 275). This implies that failure can catch the 0.990
0.950
industry unaware. Once the transformer reaches its later years 0.900
0.800
the industry may be more likely to retire it based on poor 0.700
0.600
condition, rather than retiring due to the manifestation of a 0.500
0.400
specific fault which was thought to be leading to failure. If 0.300
0.999 0.050
0.990 Failures
0.950 Retirements
0.900
0.800
0.700 0.010
0.600
0.500 0.005
0.400
0.300
0.200
Weibull CDF
0.100 0.001
1.0 10.0 100.0
Age (years)
0.050
0.010
Other
Insulation
0.005
0.050 OLTC
Winding
Bushing
Unknown
0.001
1.0 10.0 100.0
Age (years)
Weibull CDF
0.050
Insulation
OLTC Using a Weibull distribution to model failure was similar
Winding
Bushing to when a non-parametric distribution was used.
Unknown
Consequently, basing an algorithm to predict the likely
number of failures into the future on the Weibull distribution
is suitable. As evident from the Weibull distribution, a change
0.010
in failure mode appears to occur around twenty years. Using
one Weibull distribution to model early failures, and another
to model age-related ones, appears effective.
0.005
Number (n)
Age (years) 50
Figure 12. Weibull distributions for failure and retirement for 66 < kV ≤ 40
275 kV transformers. 30
20
10
IV. TOOL DEVELOPMENT 0
Based on these failure rates, an algorithm is being 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
Year
developed to help the industry to better predict the number of
failures and retirements of power transformers into the near Figure 13. Estimation of future failures and retirements, for Australian
future. This will be beneficial because the Utilities have to power transformers, along with their confidence intervals (CI).
justify their investment plans to the Australian Energy
Regulator every five years. The failure rates determined from In the first few decades, a transformer is more likely to
this study are being used to estimate the number of failures fail than be retired. After either 40 years, for ≤ 66 kV units, or
and retirements expected to occur in Australia over the next 60 years for 66 < kV ≤ 275 ones, a transformer is more likely
ten years (Figure 13). The assumptions considered valid for to be retired than to fail. Also, if design related issues /
this modelling are that a withdrawn unit is replaced with a weaknesses exist, they will usually become evident earlier in
new one (it is recognized that a Utility may choose not to the transformer’s life.
replace), and that the criteria to retire a unit does not change.
The dashed lines indicate the number of events calculated REFERENCES
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Replacement Model Handbook, Australia, December 2011.
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[6] IEEE Guide for Loading Mineral-Oil-Immersed Transformers and
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V. CONCLUSIONS Distribution,” Journal of Quality Technology, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 174-
181, 1986.
Nearly half of all power transformer failures over the past [11] J. Moubray, Reliability-Centered Maintenance, Industrial Press, New
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been initiated by surges from downstream faults or by