Research Article

Use of Machine Learning: Prediction of Crop

Yield in Madhya Pradesh, India
Piyush Shukla1, Manisha Jaiswal2, Rishi Rai3

Abstract
Machine learning in agriculture is a very novel research, consists in the application of machine
learning techniques to agriculture. Machine learning in agriculture field is a relatively research field.
In this article describe an overview of machine learning techniques applied to agricultural and their
applications to agricultural related areas. Yield prediction is a very important agricultural problem.
Any farmer is interested in knowing how much yield he is about to expect. Previously yield prediction
was performed by considering farmer's experience on particular field and crop. In any of machine
learning procedures the training data is to be collected from some time back to the past and the
gathered data is used in terms of training which has to be exploited to learn how to classify future
yield predictions. Madhya Pradesh is the heart land of the country and Agriculture is the backbone of
its Economy. Majority of the farmers are not getting the expected crop yield due to several reasons.
The agricultural yield is primarily depends on weather conditions. Rainfall conditions also influences
the rice cultivation. In this context, the farmers necessarily requires a timely advice to predict the
future crop yield and an analysis is to be made in order to help the farmers to maximize the crop
production in their crops. Yield prediction is an important agricultural problem. Every farmer is
interested in knowing, how much yield he is about expect.

Keywords: Agriculture, Crop yield, Machine learning, Madhya Pradesh

Introduction
Madhya Pradesh is the heart land of the country. After separation of the Chhattisgarh agriculture status remained
more or less same except Paddy crop. It is second largest state in the country by area while population wise it stands
VIIth. About 74% population is residing in rural areas. Out of total number of holdings 65% of holdings belong to small
and marginal farmers occupying only 26% cultivable land.

The State is divided in 11 Agro climatic Zones and 5 crops zones which are, (1) Chhattisgarh plains (2) Northern hill
region of Chhattisgarh (3) Kymore plateau and Satpura hills (4) Central Narmada Valley (5) Vindhya Plateau (6) Gird
region (7) Bundel Khand (8) Satpura Plateau (9) Malwa Plateau (10) Nimar Plains (11) Jhabua hills.

Agro ecologically the state falls in Zone - VII (Eastern Plateau and hills Zone), Zone VIII (Central plateau and hills Zone)
and Zone IX (Western Plateau and hills Zone).

Major perennial rivers of the State are Mahi, Narmada, Rapti, Chambal, Betwa, Sone, Wanganga, Ken and Pench. The
rivers originate in M.P. and flow towards the bordering States.
1
CAS, University Institute of Technology, Rajiv Gandhi Proudyogiki Vishwavidyalaya , Bhopal, India.
2
Deputy Director, Department of Agriculture, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India.
3
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
Correspondence: Mr. Rishi Rai, National Institute of Technology, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.

E-mail Id: rishiraicom@gmail.com

How to cite this article: Shukla P, Jaiswal M, Rai R. Use of Machine Learning: Prediction of Crop Yield in Madhya Pradesh, India. J
Adv Res Appl Arti Intel Neural Netw 2017; 4(1&2): 41-44.

© ADR Journals 2017. All Rights Reserved.

Shukla P et al.
The State has about 61.41% area under rain fed farming
area where agriculture depends on monsoon. Erratic
and uneven distribution of rainfall is the major
constraint for achieving targeted production. Due to
failure of rains, drought condition is created every year
in one part or the other.
The major Kharif crops are: - Paddy, Jowar, Maize, Bajra,
Tur, Urad, Moong, Soybean, Groundnut, Cotton etc. The
major Rabi crops are: - Wheat, Gram, Lentil, Peas,
Mustard, and Linseed etc.
Machine learning, the extraction of hidden predictive
information from large databases, is a powerful new
technology with great potential to help Farmers and
companies focus on the most important information in
their data warehouses. Machine Learning tools predict
future trends and behaviours. The automated,
prospective analyses offered by Machine Learning move
beyond the analyses of past events provided by
retrospective tools typical of decision support systems.
Machine Learning tools can answer questions that
traditionally were too time consuming to resolve.
Machine learning techniques can be implemented
rapidly on existing software and hardware platforms to
enhance the value of existing information resources,
and can be integrated with new products and systems
as they are brought on-line. When implemented on high
performance client/server or parallel processing
computers, Machine Learning tools can analyze massive
databases to deliver answers to questions.
Machine learning is the process of analyzing data from
different perspectives and summarizing it into useful
information - information that can be used to increase
revenue, cuts costs, or both. Machine Learning software
is one of a number of analytical tools for analyzing data.
It allows users to analyze data from many different
dimensions or angles, categorize it, and summarize the
relationships identified. Technically, machine learning is
the process of finding correlations or patterns among
dozens of fields in large relational databases. Machine
learning mainly consists of five elements:
• Extract, transform, and load transaction data onto
the data warehouse system.
• Store and manage the data in a multidimensional
database system.
• Provide data access to business analysts and
information technology professionals.
• Analyze the data by application software.
• Present the data in a useful format, such as a graph
or table.
J. Adv. Res. Appl. Arti. Intel. Neural Netw. 2017; 4(1&2)
The agricultural yield is primarily depends on weather
conditions In this context, the farmers necessarily
requires a timely advice to predict the future crop
productivity and an analysis is to be made in order to
help the farmers to maximize the crop production in
their crops. Yield prediction is an important agricultural
problem. Every farmer is interested in knowing, how
much yield he is about expect.
Overview of Data
The data used for this article are collected from
Agriculture economic survey for the years from 2004 to
2016 for Madhya Pradesh. The data are taken in eight
input variables. The variables are 'Year', 'Rainfall', 'Area
of Sowing', 'Fertilizers' and 'Pesticide'.
The attribute 'Year' specifies the year in which the data
are available in Hectares. 'Rainfall' attribute specifies the
actual rainfall in the specified year in millimetres. 'Area
of Sowing' attribute specifies the total area sowed in the
specified year in Hectares. 'Fertilizers' specify in Tons in
the specified year. 'Fertilizers' specify in Tons in the
specified year 'Pesticides' specify in Tons in the specified
year
Methodology
In this article Multiple Linear Regression technique was
used for the estimation of crop yield analysis. Multiple
linear regression denotes to model the relationship
between two or more explanatory variables and a
response variable by fitting a linear equation to
observed data.
A regression model involves more than one predictor
variable is called Multiple Regression Model. Multiple
Linear Regression (MLR) is the method, used to model
the linear relationship between a dependent variable
and one or more independent variables. The dependent
variable is sometimes termed as predictant and
independent variables are called predictors. This crop
yield prediction model is presented with the use of
multiple linear regression technique where the
predictant is the yield and there are five predictors
namely Year, Rainfall, Area of Sowing, and Fertilizers
and pesticides.
Results and Discussion
In this article an effort is made in order to know the crop
yield analysis and it is processed by implementing
Multiple Linear Regression technique. In this article used
data was overview of Madhya Pradesh. The actual value
42
J. Adv. Res. Appl. Arti. Intel. Neural Netw. 2017; 4(1&2) Shukla P et al.

along with the corresponding estimated value using Multiple Linear Regression technique which are ranging
Multiple Linear Regression technique for 12 years between -10% and +13%.and revealed that prediction
shown in the Table 1. The estimated yield results using has 95 percent accuracy.
Table 1.Actual Production and Predicted Values Using Multiple Linear Regression Technique
Year Yield (actual) Yield (prediction) Difference ratio
2004 1200 1094.35 0.09
2005 1086 1063.50 0.02
2006 1103 1187.49 -0.08
2007 1034 1137.22 -0.10
2008 1151 1162.51 -0.01
2009 1220 1237.17 -0.01
2010 1216 1318.92 -0.08
2011 1485 1475.82 0.01
2012 1750 1521.51 0.13
2013 1671 1661.60 0.01
2014 1778 1741.75 0.02
2015 1729 1821.17 -0.05

Figure 1.Year wise Actual and Predicted Yield

Figure 2.Difference of Actual and Prediction of Yield in Percentage

43
Shukla P et al.
Future Study
This article includes the aggregate data related to
rainfall, area, production, productivity, consumption of
fertilizer and pesticide of overall Madhya Pradesh. In
future study of yield for specific crop with specific
corresponding area will predict more accurate results.
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