FORECAST

1 y/y 2 y/y 3 y/y

ALL Numbers in 000
FCFE ($) 6,813 6,917 7,023

From GPI AUDIT REPORT

From GPI AudiT Report in 000 2016 2017
Net Income 5,950 5,012
Plus: After-Tax Interest Expense 211 224
Unlevered Net Income 6,161 5,236
Plus: Depreciation 648 792
Less: Increases in NWC 1,567 1,741
Less: Capital Expenditures 120 139
Free Cash Flow of Firm 5,122 4,148
Plus: Net Borrowing 1,750 3,015
Less: After-Tax Interest Expense 263 452
Free Cash Flow to Equity 6,609 6,710

1.5%

Assumptions
Discount Rate ( Estimated By CAPM ) 12.0%

Equity Risk Premium 11%

Country Risk Premium ( Georgia ) 5.12%
Beta 0.57
Risk Free ( Treasury bond Adj.) 3%
Growth Rate 3%
Capitalization Rate 9.5%

Terminal Value 8,156,861

PV ( Terminal Value ) 5,174,876
PV (5 years Cash flow) 584,699

PRICE OF THE SHARE = TOTAL PV Divided into

number of Share $3,840
$12
Number of Shares Outstanding 1500
$10

$8

$6
 $10

$8

Investment 0 $6

$4
NPV $3,840
$2

$0
5% 10% 15
4 y/y 5 y/y 6 y/y 7 y/y 8 y/y 9 y/y 10 y/y

7,130 7,239 7,350 7,462 7,576 7,692 7,809

1,788,283 1,803,324
17,227 0
1,805,509 1,803,324
39,910 39,840
1,006,425 1,269,911
0 0
838,994 573,253
0 0
17,227 0
821,767 573,253

PV

$3,840

7%

8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
GPI Share Value for Simulated RRR
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
 24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

 Source Damodaran Methodology
11 y/y (Growth 0%) Industry Name
Insurance (General)
8,004
Country
Georgia

Industry Name
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & I
Insurance (General)
Insurance (Life)
Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
Reinsurance

NPV

$3,840

7%

8%

9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%

20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
 25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%

35%
 Number of Firms Beta ROE Cost of Equity
154 0.57 10.39% 13.13%

Moody's rating Rating-based Default Spread Total Equity Risk Premium

Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.16% 10.81%

Number of Firms Beta ROE Cost of Equity

536 0.69 13.95% 14.47%
154 0.57 10.39% 13.13%
63 0.77 11.31% 15.28%
141 0.45 12.34% 11.92%
30 0.94 9.72% 17.15%
 (ROE - COE) BV of Equity Equity EVA ROC
-2.74% $ 48,214.48 $ (1,321.12) 11.23%

Country Risk Premium Sovereign CDS, net of US Total Equity Risk Premium2 Country Risk Premium3
5.12% NA NA NA

(ROE - COE) BV of Equity Equity EVA ROC

-0.52% $ 132,589.19 $ (692.92) 2.31%
-2.74% $ 48,214.48 $ (1,321.12) 11.23%
-3.97% $ 217,948.59 $ (8,653.08) 13.02%
0.42% $ 105,444.13 $ 445.06 13.37%
-7.43% $ 39,477.60 $ (2,932.41) 10.04%
Cost of Capital (ROC - WACC) BV of Capital EVA E/(D+E) Std Dev in Stock Cost of Debt
12.31% -1.08% $ 60,748.31 $ (654.33) 73.99% 23.37% 11.76%

Cost of Capital (ROC - WACC) BV of Capital EVA E/(D+E) Std Dev in Stock Cost of Debt
12.24% -9.92% $ 348,559.47 $ (34,593.18) 45.39% 29.93% 12.21%
12.31% -1.08% $ 60,748.31 $ (654.33) 73.99% 23.37% 11.76%
13.44% -0.42% $ 290,989.13 $ (1,210.63) 65.13% 21.72% 11.76%
11.57% 1.80% $ 118,363.94 $ 2,126.29 82.13% 24.20% 11.76%
16.27% -6.23% $ 41,703.01 $ (2,599.46) 87.77% 23.48% 11.76%
Tax Rate After-tax Cost of Debt D/(D+E)
11.99% 10.00% 26.01%

Tax Rate After-tax Cost of Debt D/(D+E)

16.55% 10.38% 54.61%
11.99% 10.00% 26.01%
15.83% 10.00% 34.87%
15.38% 10.00% 17.87%
13.24% 10.00% 12.23%
Date updated: 5-Jan-17
Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data? Beta, Unlevered beta and other risk measures Emerging Markets
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each industry: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Tax rate Unlevered beta
Insurance (General) 154 0.57 35.16% 11.99% 0.43
Markets

m
Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity
14.40% 0.51 0.2269 23.37%
Standard deviation in operating income (last 10 years)
44.71%
 Unlevered
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Tax rate beta
Insurance (General) 154 0.566721005 0.351564218 0.11986319 0.432801554

Country
Moodys Adj. Default Total Risk Risk
GDP in billion rating Spread Premium Premium
Georgia 14 Ba3 4.16% 10.81% 5.12%
 Standard
Cash/Firm deviation
value HiLo Risk of equity
0.14398834 0.22695 0.233697

Corporate
Tax Rate Region
15.00% Eastern Europe & Russia