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DAEWOO INDONESIA
Embun Pagi (Dec 9, 2016)
Market Indicator
JCI: 5,303.73 (+0.72%)
Stock Watch
ADRO (Trading Buy), UNTR (BoW), ITMG (Trading Buy)
Embun Pagi
Dang Maulida +62-21-515-1140 dangmaulida@dwsec-id.com
To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 50.8 2.1 10.7 11.3
Gold 1,170.8 -0.3 -8.4 9.1
Coal 84.0 -4.2 -25.1 60.0
Palm Oil 705.0 0.0 5.0 21.3 Prospects of global economic growth
Rubber 167.3 0.0 20.7 64.7
Nickel 11,410.0 -1.7 1.3 31.2
Copper 5,785.0 -1.7 10.5 26.1
Tin 20,925.0 -0.8 -2.1 46.5
3,500 650
Source: IMF, Daewoo Securities Indonesia
12/13 09/14 06/15 02/16 11/16
Embun Pagi
Daewoo cartoon
Embun Pagi
Local flashes
WSBP: Waskita Beton kantongi kontrak baru Rp8,1 triliun. PT Waskita Beton Precast
Tbk., mengantongi kontrak baru sebesar Rp8,1 triliun sepanjang Januari-November
2016 atau melampaui target kontrak baru sepanjang tahun Rp7,9 triliun. Direktur
Utama Waskita Beton Precast Jarot Subana memaparkan kontrak baru itu berasal dari
sejumlah proyek seperti proyek jalan tol Kayu Agung-Palembang-Betung senilai Rp200
miliar, jalan tol Bogor-Ciawi-Sukabumi serta proyek kereta ringan (LRT) Palembang
Rp70 miliar dan proyek apartemen dan hotel di Cinere serta Cirebon, Jawa Barat.
(Bisnis Indonesia)
PTBA: Bukit Asam dapat fasilitas kredit Rp2,5 triliun dari BRI. PT Bukit Asam (Persero)
Tbk atau PTBA kembali mendapat fasilitas pendanaan sebesar Rp2,5 triliun dari PT
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI). Emiten tambang batu bara pelat merah ini
akan menggunakan pendanaan tersebut untuk pengembangan operasional di sektor
pertambangan dan energi. (Bareksa)
TLKM: Telkom bagi dividen interim 2016 Rp 1,9 triliun. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia
Tbk (TLKM) atau Telkom akan membagikan dividen interim tahun buku 2016 sebesar
Rp 1,9 triliun atau minimal Rp 19,37 per lembar saham. Direktur Keuangan PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk Harry M Zen mengatakan, pembagian dividen interim ini
menunjukkan jika performa perseroan baik serta optimisme pada industri
telekomunikasi yang akan terus tumbuh. (Liputan6)
WIKA: Wika bangun pembangkit listrik panas bumi di Sumatera Selatan. PT Wijaya
Karya Tbk (WIKA) mendapatkan sejumlah proyek baru pada akhir tahun 2016. Salah
satu proyek itu pembangunan lumut balai geothermal FCRS dan pembangkit listrik
dengan PT Marubeni Corporation. Penandatanganan pengerjaan kontrak pekerjaan
sipil untuk proyek itu dilakukan pada Rabu 7 Desember 2016. Nilai proyek tersebut
sekitar Rp 439,38 miliar. (Liputan6)
KAEF: Kimia Farma investasi pabrik garam farmasi Rp76 miliar. PT Kimia Farma
(Persero) Tbk menyiapkan belanja modal sekitar Rp76 miliar untuk membangun pabrik
garam farmasi atau bahan baku obat (BBO) tahap 2 dengan kapasitas 4.000 ton/tahun.
Direktur Utama Kimia Farma, Rusdi Rosman mengatakan Kimia Farma telah membeli
lahan di sekitar pabrik garam farmasi tahap 1 (2.000 ton/tahun) yakni seluas 1 ha.
Dengan menambah pabrik garam farmasi, Kimia Farma bakal menyuplai kebutuhan
garam farmasi dalam negeri yang mencapai 6.000 ton/tahun. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Embun Pagi
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 tasrul@dwsec-id.com
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band angka panjang pada uptrend
channel.
IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend relatif valid yang dimulai sejak selama 321 hari
terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.8627 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.49
std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar
13.73 % atau sekitar 44 bar chart. Volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar
+/-0.54% atau sekitar +/-28.7 point. IHSG akan coba befrtahan diatas normal lower band
jangka panjang pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 8 , 2016) 5,303.7(+0.7%) Trading range 5,256-5,318
Average index performance (%) 6.34Target
Period 321 - Daily 5,313
r-squared 0.8627 - Weekly 5,343
Volatility (+/-, %) 0.54 - Monthly 5,408
Volatility (+/-, point) 28.7Stop loss 5,248
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
5,653.02
5,450.69
5,450.32
5,318.68
5,303.73
5,247.62
5,256
5,218.18
5,194.77
5,113.06
5,103.2
9,139,771,392
6,783,380,480
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Created with AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis software. http://www.amibroker.com
Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar masih terlihat dan volatilitas indeks naik mulai tertahan.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI optimized akan
menguji support trendline dan indikator W%R optimized sudah berada sekitar
resistance trendline dengan volume masih di bawah rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi
kenaikkan akan relatif tertahan dengan kecenderungan terkoreksi. Resistance terdekat
di 5,303.Sementara support di 5,256. Stop loss level di 5,248.
63.6698
^JKSE- Daily12/8/2016Open5268.24, Hi 5303.73, Lo5263.44, Close 5303.73(0.7%) VWAP= 5,103.20, VWAP= 5,218.18, VWAP= 5,318.68, VWAP= 5,194.77
5,318.68
5,303.73
5,256 5,218.18
5,194.77
5,103.2
9,139,771,392
6,783,380,480
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Created with AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis software. http://www.amibroker.com
Embun Pagi
Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,313 Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,343 Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,408
^ JK S E - D a ily 12/8/2016 O p e n 5268.24, H i 5303.73, L o 5263.44, ^ JK S E - W e e kly 12/8/2016 O p e n 5239.9, H i 5303.73, L o 5229.8,
5,416.91
x
^ J K S E - M o n th l y 1 2 / 8 / 2 0 1 6 O p e n 5 1 6 8 . 6 3 , H i 5 3 0 3 . 7 3 , L o
5,580.29
5,380.01 5,494.23
5,343.1 5,408.17
5,306.2 5,322.1
5,303.73 5,303.73
5,269.29 5,236.04
5,232.38
5,195.48 5,149.98
5,342.1
5,158.57 5,063.92
5,327.77
5,121.67
5,313.44 4,977.85
5,303.73
4,891.79
5,299.11
5,284.78
5,270.45
5,256.12
5,241.79
5,227.46
43,025,203,200 117,408,456,704
27,047,784,448
9,139,771,392
6,783,380,480
O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 45,959,102,464
Nov Dec Apr Jul O ct 2014 2015 2016
C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o ke r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o ke r .c o m
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Embun Pagi
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 8, 2016) 1,650(-3.5%)Trading range 1,630-1,710
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 82.80Target
β (beta) 1.47 - Daily 1,710
Corelation 0.87 - Weekly 1,760
Period 79 - Monthly 1,790
r-squared 0.8813Stop loss 1,600
Volatility (+/-, %) 2.29
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 37.79
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
1,854.65
1,740.86
1,710 1,740.86
1,650
1,634.6
1,627.07
1,600 1,581.64
1,506.26
56,002,792
36,140,400
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
18 25 Aug 8 15 22 29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Created with AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis software. http://www.amibroker.com
Embun Pagi
38.1758
32.6089
ADRO.JK- Daily12/8/2016Open1710, Hi 1710, Lo1620, Close 1650(-3.5%) VWAP= 1,634.60, VWAP= 1,506.26
1,710
1,650
1,634.6
1,600
1,506.26
56,002,792
36,140,400
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Created with AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis software. http://www.amibroker.com
Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-
masing periode dengan target minimal kenaikkan ke resistance 2, sebagaimana terlihat
pada Figure 8,9 dan 10.
Figure 8. Daily ,target : 1,710 Figure 9. Weekly, target : 1,760 Figure 10. Monthly, target : 1,790
A D R O .JK - D a ily 12/8/2016 O p e n 1710, H i 1710, L o 1620, A D R O .JK - W e e kly 12/8/2016 O p e n 1680, H i 1770, L o 1620, A D R O . J K - M o n th l y 1 2 / 8 / 2 0 1 6 O p e n 1 5 8 0 , H i 1 7 7 0 , L o 1 5 8 0 ,
1,926.88
1,856.41
1,785.94
1,841.62
1,801.21 1,715.47
1,760.81 1,650
1,720.4 1,645
1,748.08 1,680 1,574.53
1,729.19 1,650 1,504.06
1,710.29 1,639.6 1,433.59
1,691.4 1,599.19 1,363.12
1,672.5 1,558.79
1,653.6 1,518.38
1,650
1,634.71
1,615.81
1,596.92
293,310,400 1,131,319,296
226,473,088
56,002,792
36,140,400
O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 318,256,768
Nov Dec Apr Jul O ct 2014 2015 2016
C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Embun Pagi
25,133.5
24,454.1
23,500 23,350.8
23,350.8
22,600
22,247.6
21,625
21,568.1
4,924,143
4,820,200
10
Embun Pagi
Pada Figure 12, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator
W%R Optimized akan mennguji support trendline dengan volume mendekati rata-
rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi koreksi sudah terbatas. Resistance terdekat di
22,850 sebelum lanjut ke 23,500 . Support saat ini di 22,125 dan stop loss level di
21,625.
38.4627
44.9159
UNTR.JK- Daily12/8/2016Open22700, Hi 22850, Lo22125, Close 22600(-1.8%) VWAP= 22,134.88, VWAP= 20,578.54, VWAP= 22,850.86, VWAP= 22,589.45
23,500
22,850.9
22,600
22,589.4
22,134.9
21,625 20,578.5
4,924,143
4,820,200
Embun Pagi
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-
masing periode dengan target minimal kenaikkan ke resistance 2, sebagaimana terlihat
pada Figure 14,15 dan 16.
Figure 13. Daily, target : 23,025 Figure 14. Weekly, target : 23,900 Figure 15. Monthly, target : 24,225
U N T R .JK - D a ily 12/8/2016 O p e n 22700, H i 22850, L o 22125, U N T R .JK - W e e kly 12/8/2016 O p e n 23200, H i 23950, L o U N T R . J K - M o n th l y 1 2 / 8 / 2 0 1 6 O p e n 2 1 7 0 0 , H i 2 3 9 5 0 , L o
25,970.3
25,094.9
24,219.5
24,855.4
24,383.8 23,344.1
23,912.1
22,600
23,440.4
23,501.4 22,468.8
22,968.8
23,268.2 21,593.4
22,600
23,035.1
22,497.1
22,801.9 20,718
22,025.4
22,600 21,553.8 19,842.6
22,568.8 21,082.1
22,335.6 18,967.2
22,102.4
21,869.3
21,636.1
90,270,328
4,924,143
24,161,092
4,820,200
17,129,100
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
12
Embun Pagi
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 8, 2016) 16,650(+2.5%) Trading range 16,000-17,575
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 71.87 Target
β (beta) 1.01 - Daily 17,050
Corelation 0.68 - Weekly 17,875
Period 64 - Monthly 19,325
r-squared 0.8659Stop loss 16,000
Volatility (+/-, %) 3.00
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 499.61
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
17,575
17,617.3
16,650
16,320.7
16,297
16,000
14,668.4
2,680,126
2,158,600
Embun Pagi
Pada Figure 17, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI
Optimized saat ini mulai naik dengan volume sekitar rata-rata. Dengan demikian
diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan mulai terlihat. Perkiraan resistance terdekat ke 17,575.
Support terdekat di 16,000 yang sekaligus sebagai stop loss level.
41.0473
49.5658
ITMG.JK- Daily12/8/2016Open16250, Hi 16925, Lo16275, Close 16650(2.5%) VWAP= 16,199.28, VWAP= 14,668.37
17,575
16,650
16,199.3
16,000
14,668.4
2,384,236
2,158,600
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Created with AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis software. http://www.amibroker.com
14
Embun Pagi
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-
masing periode dengan target minimal kenaikkan ke resistance 2, sebagaimana terlihat
pada Figure 18,19 dan 20.
Figure 18. Daily, target : 17,050 Figure 19. Weekly, target : 17,875 Figure 20. Monthly, target : 19,325
IT M G .JK - D a ily 12/8/2016 O p e n 16250, H i 16925, L o 16275, IT M G .JK - W e e kly 12/8/2016 O p e n 17000, H i 17400, L o I T M G . J K - M o n th l y 1 2 / 8 / 2 0 1 6 O p e n 1 6 1 2 5 , H i 1 7 4 0 0 , L o
18,977.8
18,423.9
17,870.1
17,316.3
17,578.5 16,762.5
17,315.1 16,650
17,051.8 16,208.7
16,788.4 15,654.9 22,111.2
16,650 15,101.1
20,719.3
16,525 14,547.2
19,327.5
16,261.6
15,998.2 17,935.6
15,734.9 16,650
15,471.5 16,543.8
15,151.9
13,760
12,368.2
10,976.3
15,692,575
12,420,900 40,528,800
2,384,236
2,158,600
17,122,400
O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0 O p ti m i z a ti o n T r a d i n g S y ste m - © 2 0 1 0
Nov Dec Apr Jul O ct 2014 2015 2016
C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m C r e a te d w ith A m iB r o k e r - a d v a n c e d c h a r tin g a n d te c h n ic a l a n a ly s is s o f tw a r e . h ttp ://w w w .a m ib r o k e r .c o m
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya
β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin
sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya
Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan
pergerakan IHSG
Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham
r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan
regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik
kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid)
Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama
harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase.
Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama
Harga saham bergerak
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan
indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal
dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana
Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati
support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas
dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati
resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area.
Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level
resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau
hanya sementara.
analyzed by : Tasrul, tasrul@dwsec-id.com, +62-21- 5151140
Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level
support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau
hanya sementara.
Embun Pagi
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R) (IDR) (%, %p) Absolute Relative
5,700 14,000 20 18.8
5,500 13,800 16
5,300
13,600 12
5,100 8.3
13,400 8
4,900
13,200 4 2.0
4,700
0.7 0.5
4,500 13,000 0
-0.6 -0.4
4,300 12,800 -4 -2.0
9/8 10/6 11/3 12/1 1D 1W 1M 1Y
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 24. Energy price
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 26. Precious metal price
100
120
95
90
110
85
100 80
75
90 70
9/16 9/16 10/16 10/16 11/16 11/16 12/16 9/16 9/16 10/16 10/16 11/16 11/16 12/16
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
16
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Embun Pagi
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
6:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 3.4 2.9
6:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.7% 3.7%
7:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -0.9% 1.6%
8:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.2% 2.1%
8:30am CNY PPI y/y 2.2% 1.2%
1:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.3% 3.3%
2:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 20.8B 21.3B
2:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -83.0B
2:45pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.6% -1.1%
4:30pm GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.9B -12.7B
4:30pm GBP Construction Output m/m 0.2% 0.3%
4:30pm GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 2.2%
10:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 94.3 93.8
10:00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.4% -0.4%
10:00pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.4%
6:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 3.4 2.9
6:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.7% 3.7%
7:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -0.9% 1.6%
8:30am CNY CPI y/y 2.2% 2.1%
8:30am CNY PPI y/y 2.2% 1.2%
1:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.3% 3.3%
10:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -50B
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
18
Embun Pagi
Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having
professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No
warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our
judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies
and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or
in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any
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