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Model of Carrying Capacity – System Dynamics in NetLogo and Stella

Conference Paper · February 2014

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MODEL OF CARRYING CAPACITY – SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN NETLOGO
AND STELLA

Kamila Olševičová, Richard Cimler, Hana Tomášková, Alžběta Danielisová

University of Hradec Králové
Institute of Archaeology of Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
kamila.olsevicova@uhk.cz; richard.cimler@uhk.cz; hana.tomaskova@uhk.cz;
danielisova@arup.cas.cz

Key words:
carrying capacity model – NetLogo – social simulation – Stella – system dynamics
Abstract:
We compare implementations of system dynamics of Celtic settlement using two tools –
NetLogo and Stella. The objective of the model is to catch the relations among the
population growth, the production growth and the land use with respect to agricultural
strategies. Our main objective is to better understand the Celtic society and economy
and its sudden collapse. More broadly we are interested in the applicability of multi-
method simulation (agent-based approach enhanced with system dynamics and process
modelling) in archaeological research.

Introduction
Our objective is to explore the complexity of the society in late Iron Age in central
Europe where fortified agglomerations – the oppida – came into picture. They appeared
as a part of an economically advanced environment, together with a distinctive
intensification of settlement patterns. Archaeological record shows that dynamics of
their occupation includes fast growth and then even more rapid decline: the population
density peaked within ca. 70 years, and then, within two generations it decreased
extensively.

Causes for gradual trend of depopulation can be seen in both endogenous and
exogenous factors (organizational and political, environmental or ecological).
Computational simulation can help us to get insight into the causes of the collapse. Our
previous research was focused mainly on the agent-based simulations; see e.g. our

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NetLogo [1] model of population dynamics [2] or model of agricultural strategies [3].
The simulation of synthetic population (size, structure and subsistence needs) was
accompanied with the model of agricultural practices with the aim of investigating the
sustainability of the long-term means of production and means of subsistence.

Up-to-date simulation software such as AnyLogic [4] supports the multi-method

simulations combining agent-based approach with system dynamics model and discrete
event model. Each of the three methodologies assumes certain level of abstraction and
quantification, namely in case of complex models of economies. We built two models
of the carrying capacity of the Celtic settlement to learn more about the benefits and
limits of system dynamics modelling. The first model was implemented using System
Dynamics Modeler in NetLogo, the second was created using Stella software [5]. The
models are presented in the rest of the paper.

1. System Dynamics Modelling with NetLogo and Stella

With the agent-based approach the behaviour and interactions of individual agents are
defined. The system dynamics model catches how populations behave as a whole. Both
NetLogo and Stella provide intuitive icon-based graphical interfaces for creating the
diagram that defines populations and how they affect each other (Fig. 1, 2). In NetLogo,
its System Dynamics Modeler directly generates the appropriate NetLogo code (global
variables, procedures and reporters). The diagram is composed of four types of
elements:
· stock accumulates or drains,
· flow defines and controls stock’s input/output,
· variable is a value (a constant or an equation that depends on other variables),
· link transmits a number from a variable or a stock into a stock or a flow.
Similarly, Stella provides four types elements:
· stock and flow do not differ from corresponding NetLogo elements,
· converter manipulates inputs into outputs (holds values for constants, defines
external inputs to the model, calculates algebraic relationships, serves as the
repository for graphical functions),
· connector passes information between pairs of elements.

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FIG. 1: Part of the diagram in NetLogo

Source: authors

FIG. 2: Part of the diagram in Stella

Source: authors

2. The carrying capacity models

The population of the Celtic settlement increases from 600 up to 2000 inhabitants
during 120 years. The population growth parameters (birth-rates, mortality and
migration) are specified by domain experts. The total carrying capacity of the settlement
depends mainly on the available strong workforce and available arable land. The
amount of strong workforce is defined by the number of adult men between 15 and 45
years capable of hard agricultural work. The area of fields differs for intensive and
extensive agricultural strategy which operates with fallow. About 70% of the population
consumption is covered by cereals; further 20% diet consists of animal proteins (beef,

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pork, lamb and horse meat and milk). The proportions of herds are given: large family
of approx. 20 people cared about 2 cows, 2 sheep, 3 pigs and 1 horse. Animals require
food from meadows and woodland and provide manure. With manure the crop grows
from 500-1500 kg/ha up to 1500-3000kg/ha. The food production is restricted by
constraints such as maximum of slaughtered cattle or approx. cereal losses during the
winter. Food energy tables are used for mapping amount of wheat and milk on the
consumption of each age group from toddlers to elderly. The map of the initial
proportion of arable land, woodland and meadows is given as well as rules expressing
the spreading of fields and the process of deforestation.

The system dynamics models are created as follows.

· The stock of the human population is modified by birth- and immigration-
inflows and death- and emigration- outflows.
· The stocks of animals’population are modified by birth-inflows and slaughter-
outflows.
· The stock of food contains calories from all sources of food. The stock of
cereals is decomposed into three sub-stocks of one, two and three years old
storages. The oldest storage is consumed with the highest priority while part of
the newest crop is used as seed for the next season.
· The stock of arable land defines the current area of fields and together with the
stock of woodland area and the stock of grasslands gives the total land use.

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FIG. 3: Population growth graph in Stella

Source: authors

FIG. 4: Interface of NetLogo model

Source: authors

Conclusion
We intended to demonstrate the ability to move from a static data set (archaeological
and environmental records) to dynamic modelling that incorporates feedback
mechanisms and nonlinear responses to a wide range of input data. This approach can
help to analyse past socio-economic processes, determine possible crisis factors and
understand ecological and cultural changes.

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Results obtained with the system dynamics simulation of carrying capacity of late Iron
Age oppida show limits of the sustainable economy practiced by a constantly growing
population under particular environmental settings. The immediate or gradual impact of
the success rate in the food production and its potential influences on the social
processes including the oppida abandonment can be also addressed.

In NetLogo, the system dynamics can be enriched with the agent-based component (for
example of the interface, see fig. 4). The system dynamics model of the settlement
population and food production will be extended with the agent-based model of villages
in the hinterland. Villages with its individual characteristics will be represented by
agents and organized in the network. This is the way how to simulate the supplier-
customer relationships and to experiment with hypotheses about the level of self-
sufficiency and the likely share of importing food and exporting craft products.

Stella software does not allow us to continue with modelling individuals. The model is
limited in several aspects, e.g. the graph cannot contain more than 5 lines (fig. 3). The
main advantage of Stella is that it helps us to check the consistency of the model and to
ensure the model outputs do not depend on the implementation tool.

Acknowledgement:
The research described was supported by grant GACR-405/12/0926 Social modeling as
a tool for understanding Celtic society and cultural changes at the end of the Iron Age
and the project No. CZ.1.07/2.2.00/28.0327 Innovation and support of doctoral study
program (INDOP), financed from EU and Czech Republic funds.

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 References:
[1] NetLogo homepage. [online] http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ 2013
[2] OLŠEVIČOVÁ, K., CIMLER, R., MACHÁLEK, T. (2012) Agent-based Model of
Celtic Population Growth: NetLogo and Python. In: N.T. Nguyen et al. (Eds.)
Advanced Methods for Computational Collective Intelligence, Studies in
Computational Intelligence 457, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013, pp. 135-
143.
[3] MACHÁLEK, T., CIMLER, R., OLŠEVIČOVÁ, K., DANIELISOVÁ, A. (2013)
Fuzzy Methods in Land Use Modeling for Archaeology. In: Proc. of 31st
International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Economics 2013, Jihlava,
part II, pp. 552-557.
[4] AnyLogic homepage [online] http://www.anylogic.com/ 2013
[5] Stella homepage. [online]
http://www.iseesystems.com/softwares/Education/StellaSoftware.aspx 2013

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