27/06/2018 Statistics 1(F)-Marcela Schimmels

Course: Statistics 1(F)

Student: Marcela Schimmels
Book: Sharpe: Business Statistics: A First Course, Second
Instructor: Jeff Nernberg
Canadian Edition
Date: 06/27/18
Time: 21:23

You play two games against the same opponent. The probability you win the first game is 0.4. If you win the first game, the
probability you also win the second is 0.2. If you lose the first game, the probability that you win the second is 0.1. Complete
parts a) through e).

a) Are the two games independent? Explain your answer.

Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does not change the probability that the other event occurs. Use this
information to determine whether the two games are independent.

b) What's the probability you lose both games?

Use the general multiplication rule, P(A and B) = P(A) • P(A|B), to find the probability. In other words, multiply the probability that
you lose the first game by the probability that you lose the second game given that you lose the first game.

P(lose both games) = P(lose first game) • P(lose second game|lose first game)

What is the probability that you lose the first game?

P(lose 1st game) = 0.6

(Type an integer or a decimal.)

What is the probability that you then lose the second game?

P(lose second game|lose first game) = 0.9

(Type an integer or a decimal.)

Multiply the two probabilities.

P(lose both games) = P(lose first game) • P(lose second game|lose first game)
= 0.6 • 0.9
= 0.54
(Type an integer or a decimal.)

Therefore, the probability that you lose both games is 0.54.

c) What's the probability you win both games?

Use the general multiplication rule, P(A and B) = P(A) • P(A|B), to find the probability. In other words, multiply the probability that
you win the first game by the probability that you win the second game given that you win the first game.

P(win both games) = P(win 1st game) • P(win second game|win first game)

What is the probability that you win the first game?

P(win 1st game) = 0.4

(Type an integer or a decimal.)

What is the probability that you then win the second game?

P(win second game|win first game) = 0.2

(Type an integer or a decimal.)

Multiply the two probabilities.

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27/06/2018
P(win both games)
(Type an integer or a decimal.)
Statistics 1(F)-Marcela Schimmels
= P(win 1st game) • P(win second game|win first game)
= 0.4 • 0.2
= 0.08

Therefore, the probability that you win both games is 0.08.

d) Let the random variable X be the number of games you win. Find the probability model for X.

Since there are three possible values for X (0, 1, and 2), find the probabilities of Win 2 wins 0.08
each value. In part b) you found the probability of 0 wins, and in part c) you 0.2
found the probability of 2 wins. All that remains is to find the probability of 1 win. Win
0.4 Lose 1 win

0.6 Win 1 win

Lose
0.9
Lose 0 wins 0.54

Because there are two ways to win exactly 1 game, to find P(X = 1), find the Win 2 wins 0.08
probability that you lose the first game and win the second and add it to the 0.2
probability that you win the first game and lose the second. Win
0.4 Lose 1 win ?
P(X = 1) = P(win 1st game, lose 2nd game)
0.6 Win 1 win ?
+ P(lose 1st game, win 2nd game) Lose
0.9
Lose 0 wins 0.54

Use the rule, P(A and B) = P(A) • P(A|B), to find the probability. In other words, Win 2 wins 0.08
multiply the probability that you win the first game by the probability that you 0.2
lose the second game given that you win the first game. What is the probability Win ?
0.4 Lose 1 win
that you lose the second game given that you win the first game?
0.6 Win 1 win
P(lose 2nd game|win 1st game) = 0.8 Lose
0.9
Lose 0 wins 0.54

Recall that the probability that you win the first game is 0.4. What is the Win 2 wins 0.08
probability that you win the first game, but lose the second? 0.2
Win 0.8
0.4 Lose 1 win ?
P(win 1st game, lose 2nd game) = 0.4 • 0.8
= 0.32 0.6 Win 1 win
Lose
(Type an integer or a decimal.) 0.9
Lose 0 wins 0.54

Use the rule, P(A and B) = P(A) • P(A|B), to find the probability. In other words, Win 2 wins 0.08
multiply the probability that you lose the first game by the probability that you 0.2
win the second game given that you lose the first game. What is the probability Win 0.8
0.4 Lose 1 win 0.32
that you win the second game given that you lose the first game?
0.6 Win 1 win
P(win 2nd game|lose 1st game) = 0.1 Lose ?
0.9
Lose 0 wins 0.54

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27/06/2018 Statistics 1(F)-Marcela Schimmels
Recall that the probability that you lose the first game is 0.6. What is the Win 2 wins 0.08
probability that you lose the first game, but win the second? 0.2
Win 0.8
0.4 Lose 1 win 0.32
P(lose 1st game, win 2nd game) = 0.6 • 0.1
= 0.06 0.6 Win 1 win ?
Lose 0.1
(Type an integer or a decimal.) 0.9
Lose 0 wins 0.54

Sum the probabilities.

P(X = 1) = P(win 1st game, lose 2nd game) + P(lose 1st game, win 2nd game)
= 0.32 + 0.06
= 0.38
(Type an integer or a decimal.)

Now fill in the correct probabilities for the probability model for X.

x 0 1 2
p(x) 0.54 0.38 0.08
(Type integers or decimals.)

e) Find the expected value and standard deviation of X.

To find the expected value of a discrete random variable, X, use the formula below.

μ = E(X) = ∑xP(x)

Multiply each value of x by its probability and find the sum.

μ = E(X)
= ∑ xP(x)

= 0 • 0.54 + 1 • 0.38 + 2 • 0.08

= 0.54
(Type an integer or a decimal.)

Therefore, the expected number of wins is 0.54.

Use the formula below to find the standard deviation for the random variable, X.

2
σ = SD(X) = Var(X) = ∑ (x − μ) P(x)

Find the deviation of each x-value from the expected value, 0.54.

x P(x) x−μ
0 0.54 − 0.54
1 0.38 0.46
2 0.08 1.46
(Type integers or decimals.)

To find the standard deviation, first calculate the variance.

2
Var(X) = ∑ (x − μ) P(x)
= ( − 0.54)2 • 0.54 + (0.46)2 • 0.38 + (1.46)2 • 0.08
= 0.408
(Round to three decimal places as needed.)
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27/06/2018 Statistics 1(F)-Marcela Schimmels
Evaluate the standard deviation.

SD(X) = Var(X)
= 0.408
= 0.639
(Round to three decimal places as needed.)

Therefore, the standard deviation is 0.639 wins.

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