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Abbas Keramati*
Department of Industrial Engineering,
College of Engineering,
University of Tehran,
P.O. Box 11155-4563, Tehran, Iran
E-mail: Keramati@ut.ac.ir
*Corresponding author
Homa Samadi
Department of Industrial Engineering,
Islamic Azad University,
South Tehran Branch,
P.O. Box 11155-4563, Tehran, Iran
E-mail: homasamadi@yahoo.com
Salman Nazari-Shirkouhi
Department of Industrial Engineering,
College of Engineering,
University of Tehran,
P.O. Box 11155-4563, Tehran, Iran
E-mail: snnazari@ut.ac.ir
1 Introduction
More concisely, distinguished two forms of outsourcing, namely: full outsourcing and
selective outsourcing. In full outsourcing, all the services are outsourced to the vendor.
This is an extreme outsourcing strategy because the entire department information
systems duties are assigned to the outsourcing partner as in the case of Eastman Kodak.
This, according to Pearlson (2001), happens when an organisation does not see ‘IT as a
strategic advantage’ that should be developed internally. Arguments for full outsourcing
usually involve the allocation of organisational resources to areas that can add greater
value to the organisation’s value chain or reduce cost per transaction due to economies of
scale. In selective outsourcing, only a range of services is selectively outsourced or
contracted to a third party. It often results in greater flexibility and better services
(Adeleye et al. 2004).
Indeed, while firms enter outsourcing agreements with the objective of cutting costs
and improving the level of service rendered to users, the outcome of such contracts may
be just the opposite. Researchers and practitioners also recognise that, in some
circumstances, information technology outsourcing (ITO) entails risk, and that it
sometimes leads to undesirable consequences that are the opposite of the expected
benefits (Bahli and Rivard, 2005).
Because of mentioned explanations and interest of companies to outsource in this
field and also that outsourcing of information technology projects makes competitive
advantage, risk management of outsourcing of information technology projects is of high
importance. According to PMBOK (2004) standard project risk management includes the
process of conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response
planning, and monitoring and control on a project. The objectives of project risk
management are to increase probability and impact of positive events, and decrease the
probability and impact of negative events in the project (see Figure 1).
The next step after risk management planning including definition of how different
activities of risk management for a project should be lead is the risk identification. One of
risk identification methods is providing a check list of risk factors (Burkeh, 1999). The
literature review related to risk identification shows the effective results (e.g., Hahn et al.,
2009; Peng et al., 2009; Williams et al., 2010; Boholm, 2010; Pfohl et al., 2010). Having
a list of present risks in a type of project helps the project managers through review of
potential risks and examination of dominant conditions on project to decide which types
of considered risks in the list can be major dangers of their projects to plan for dealing
with them.
To achieve a list of risks in ITO projects and determine their importance, the
organisation of the paper is as follows. The literature review and identification
of risk factors in outsourcing of information technology projects are presented in
Sections 2 and 3, respectively. This section entails methodology, description of risk
factors, and proposal of structure for risk factors. In Section 4, evaluating and prioritising
of ITO risks are presented. It continues to discuss methodology, providing suitable
questionnaire, and analysing questionnaire. The validation of the proposed model is
discussed in Section 5. Sections 6 to 8 include conclusion, managerial implementations,
and limitations and future research, respectively.
2 Literature review
Different aspects of the ITO were considered in the literature. For example, among South
Korean IT executives, Goo et al. (2009) investigated how specific characteristics of
service level agreements impact relational governance in ITO relationships. Results
showed that the fundamental proposition of complementarily between formal contracts
and relational governance, and well-structured service level agreements have significant
positive influence on the various aspects of relational governance in IT outsourcing
relations. Varajao et al. (2009) compared information systems services in companies that
outsource these services and other companies that keep inside services. Rai et al. (2009)
found relation between relational factors and two measures of offshore IS project success,
called project cost overruns and client satisfaction, were answer question of how and why
relational factors affect the success of offshore of IS projects. Data were gathered among
155 offshore IS projects managed by 22 project leaders. With considering two case
studies, Ruzzier et al. (2008) studied successes and failures IT outsourcing. Gefen et al.
(2008) examined the role of business familiarity in determining how software
development outsourcing projects were managed and priced to address risks. Implications
about integrating trust into agency theory and incomplete contract theory, as well as
implications regarding trust premiums and software development outsourcing were
discussed in Gefen et al. (2008). Rustagi et al. (2008) considered client control over
vendor as a critical factor in successfully managing ITO relationships. Among
138 client-vendor matched pairs working in this field, the results suggested that task
uncertainty was found to be positively associated with the amount of formal control while
the degree of core competency involved in the outsourced activity was not found to be
related to the amount of formal control. Blumenberg et al. (2009) investigated the
differential various types of knowledge transfer on shared knowledge between
outsourcing banks and their providers and considered effect of these on the resulting
214 A. Keramati et al.
outsourcing performance. Their results were showed that transfer of tacit knowledge
proves to be most effective. Paper of Alsudairi and Dwivedi (2010) proposed a survey of
the literature belonging to research on IS/IT outsourcing. Their analyses were presented
by listing and illustrating subject category, journals, year of publications and country, etc.
With considering of risks that exposure client and supplier, Brandas (2010) proposed a
series of objectives for ITO audit. Smith (2009) investigated positive and negative
aspects of IT outsourcing and suggested corrective action to minimise the negative
impacts of such practices with change management principles. Dey et al. (2010)
presented a contract-theoretic model to analyse how software outsourcing contracts can
be designed. Also, type of performance-based contract called quality-level agreement was
examined. Because of transaction cost theory has widely been used in ITO research to
explain and predict outsourcing decisions and outsourcing-related outcomes,
Alaghehband et al. (2011) considered various results that made of TCT to study IT
outsourcing. Ponisio and Vruggink (2011) studied of four outsourcing projects for
discovering mechanisms to support managerial decision making during software
development processes. As a result, the key role of modularisation and standardisation to
assist in value creation was suggested by facilitating information flow and keeping the
overview of the project. Faisal and Banwet (2009) proposed a suitable technique of
analytical network process (ANP) for analysing IT outsourcing decision.
Risks of the ITO were investigated and categorised as follow. Aundhe and
Mathew’s (2009) research revealed that there are three broad categories of risks: project
specific, relationship specific, and macroeconomic. A case-based approach using the
principles of grounded theory was used for studying the risks and considered interaction
among the categories. Chou and Chou (2009) identified an information systems
outsourcing life cycle through three project related periods: pre-contract phase, contract
phase, and post-contract phase. Also, various risk factors associated with each phase of
the information system outsourcing practice have been identified and examined.
Willcocks et al. (1999) categorised these risks: contextual, building to contract and
post-contract issues. A contribution of the paper was proposed a framework for analysing
the risk and then presented a case study. Bhattacharya et al. (2003) categorised these
risks: risk exposure of supplier capabilities and risk exposure of company capabilities.
Akomode et al. (1998) categorised these risks: performance, technical expertise,
commitment, adequate time-to-volume, quality and adequate forecasting of total cost.
They discussed IT outsourcing in detail and proposed a customised computer-orientated
model based on action research and analytical hierarchy process. Currie (2003)
categorised these risks: delivery and enablement; integration; management and
operations; business transformation; and client/vendor relationships and attempts to make
knowledge explicit, whilst also recognising the tacit aspects of evaluating consortium,
project-based outsourcing. Abdullah and Verner (2009) identified several categories
associated with organisational environment, team, user, complexity, contract,
requirements, planning and control, and execution. Insights from transaction costs theory,
Bahli and Rivard (2005) suggested that there are three major sources of risk factors for IT
outsourcing: the transaction, the client and the supplier. They applied partial least squares
(PLS) to assess their reliability and validity of these risk factors. In the other papers, in
spite of paying attention to identify the lists of ITO risks, they have not categorised them
(Adeleye et al., 2004; Nakatsu and Iacovou, 2009; Osei-Bryson and Ngwenyama, 2006;
Lacity et al., 2009; Gonzalez et al., 2010; Mathew, 2011).
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 215
Literature review of ITO project indicated that a few number of papers was considered
risk management of IT projects outsourcing. Among papers considering risks of ITO
projects, a few number have analysed the risks of these projects and most of them have
just mentioned the risks factors. Thus, lack of research aiming collection of a complete
set of risk factors in outsourcing of IT projects and prioritising of mentioned factors is
evident. Therefore, the research goals of current paper are as follows:
216 A. Keramati et al.
Code of risks authors C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C21 C22 C23 C31 C32 C33 C34
Bahli and Rivard 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
(2005)
Nakatsu and 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Iacovou (2009)
Lacity et al. (2009) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Osei-Bryson and 9 9
Ngwenyama (2006)
Bhattacharya 9 9 9 9 9
et al. (2003)
Akomode et al. (1998) 9 9 9 9 9
Willcocks et al. (1999) 9 9 9 9 9
Adeleye et al. (2004) 9 9 9 9 9
Chou and Chou (2009) 9 9 9
Aundhe and 9 9 9 9 9
Mathew (2009)
Currie (2003) 9 9 9 9 9 9
Abdullah and 9 9 9 9
Verner (2009)
Mathew (2011) 9 9 9
Gonzalez et al. (2010) 9 9
Frequency in literature 8 7 3 9 6 10 10 2 7 9 1 1
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 219
(Heide, 1994; Williamson, 1985). In each case, should the relationship be terminated
prematurely, the investment would be foregone (Klein et al., 1978). Asset specificity
makes the investor vulnerable to ex-post exploitation, hence the lock-in problem (Slater
and Spencer, 2000). The supplier may use its specific investments into a relationship as
bargaining power over the client at the time of contract renewal, since other suppliers
would have to make the same investment if they were to get the contract (Grossman and
Hart, 1986). Under these situations, once the existence of a relationship-specific
investment is recognised, switching suppliers is no longer a credible threat, and
transaction costs related to negotiating, monitoring, and enforcing the contract are
incurred (Pilling et al., 1994).
As a result of this risk are excessive transaction cost (that means supplier employee
turnover/burnout) (Lacity et al., 2009) and inadequate staffing by vendor (Nakatsu and
Iacovou, 2009).
statuses of transaction and supplier change. Also, there is similar situation for supplier.
The conclusion of this subject is that existence of interactions among client, supplier, and
transaction are undeniable and they affect on each other. Many decision-making
problems cannot be structured hierarchically because they involve interaction of various
factors, with high-level factors occasionally depending on low-level factor. Structuring a
problem with functional dependencies that allows for feedback among clusters is
considered to be a network system. Saaty (1996) suggested the use of AHP to solve the
problem of independence among alternatives or criteria, and the use of ANP to solve the
problem of dependence among alternatives or criteria. With due attention to consult with
these three experts and concept of risks, we propose a structure for analysing ITO risks
with ANP model (see Figure 3).
4.1 Methodology
In order to make decisions in the presence of multiple and conflicting criteria, MCDM is
applied. One of these techniques in MCDM that is used widely in decision making
process is AHP. AHP was introduced by Saaty (1980). The basic assumption of AHP is
224 A. Keramati et al.
dependency among each level related to upper level and itself. Many decision-making
problems cannot be considered hierarchically because they have interaction in various
levels. Saaty (1996) suggested the use of AHP to solve the problem when there is
independency among alternatives or criteria, and the use of ANP to solve the problem
when dependency among alternatives or criteria exists. In reality, the elements within the
hierarchy are often interdependent. The computation of local weights in ANP is exactly
the same as AHP method pair wise comparisons among elements that need to be
constructed. The result of computations or weights in ANP approach forms a
supermatrix. After the computation of all weights in the supermatrix, it is possible to
derive the weights of priorities.
Figure 4 is a general form of the supermatrix introduced by Saaty (1996) to deal with
the interdependence characteristics among alternatives and criteria. A supermatrix is
actually a partitioned matrix, where each matrix segment represents a relationship
between two groups of nodes (clusters) in a network (Lee and Kim, 2000). Figure 4
illustrates the structure and relative supermatrix in a network. A node represents a
component (or cluster) with elements inside it; a straight line/or an arc denotes the
interactions between two components; and a loop indicates the inner dependence of
elements within a component (Chung et al., 2005). When the elements of a component
‘goal’ depend on another component ‘criteria’, we represent this relation with an arrow
from component ‘goal’ to ‘criteria’. The corresponding supermatrix of the hierarchy with
three levels of clusters is also shown in Figure 5.
(a) (b)
In Figure 5, W21 is a vector that represents the impact of the ‘goal’ on the ‘criteria’; and
W32 is a matrix that represents the impact ‘criteria’ on each item of the ‘alternatives’. W22
represents interdependency, and the supermatrix of the elements in a component or
between two components (Saaty, 1996). W21 and W32 are obtained from pair wise
comparisons but W22, or inner dependences, are calculated by fuzzy DEMATEL method.
Since there is inner dependency among clusters in a network, the sum of columns in the
supermatrix is usually more than one and called unweighted supermatrix. The columns of
unweighted supermatrix must be normalised first to make it stochastic, it means, each
column of the matrix sums should be equal to 1. The result of this normalisation is the
weighted supermatrix. To achieve a convergence on the obtained weights, the weighted
supermatrix is raised to the power of 2p + 1; where p is an arbitrarily large number, and
this new matrix is called the limited supermatrix. The property of the limited supermatrix
is that nonzero columns of this matrix have the equal value correspondingly. Eventually,
having the limited supermatrix, the final priorities of all the elements (alternatives,
criteria, and sub criteria) can be obtained (Chung et al., 2005).
Because the real world is actually full of ambiguities or in one word is fuzzy, several
researches have combined fuzzy theory with ANP. Dagdeviren and Yuksel (2010)
measure the sectoral competition level (SCL) of an organisation within the framework of
Porter’s five forces analysis using Fuzzy analytical network process (F-ANP) technique.
Chen and Chen (2010) proposed model and applied F-ANP for support system for
Taiwanese higher education. Liu and Wang (2010) analysed quality function deployment
(QFD) model based on F-ANP approach. Some researchers, such as Vinodh et al. (2011),
Yang et al. (2011), Kang (2011), Chang et al. (2011), Huang and Chu (2011) and so on
with using of F-ANP analysed their model. Due to the network structure of framework of
risk factors presented in this paper, F-ANP is used for prioritising of risk factors in ITO
projects.
first introduced the fuzzy set theory, which can effectively describe imprecise knowledge
or human subjective judgment by linguistic terms. The linguistic terms that people use to
express their feelings and judgment are vague. Because linguistic terms merely
approximate the subjective judgment of decision makers, the widely adopted triangular
fuzzy number technique is used to represent the vagueness of these linguistic terms
(Lin, 2010).
In this regard, for gathering the experts’ opinions, a questionnaire including 25 pair
comparisons in a nine-piece scale that applied linguistic variables can reflect different
aspects of human judgments, was used (see Table 4). Structure of questionnaire is similar
to Tueysuz and Kahraman’s (2006) paper. This questionnaire was distributed among
13 project managers that work in ITO field in eight organisations. These organisations
had outsourced some or all IT operations (the organisations outsourced their information
system) to an external supplier or whether they were involved in the outsourcing
decision.
Table 4 Saaty’s (1996) scale
Intensity of Definition
Explanation
importance (linguistic terms)
1 Equal importance Two activities contribute equally to the
objective
3 Moderate Experience and judgment slightly favour one
importance over another
5 Strong importance Experience and judgment strongly favour one
over another
7 Very strong Activity is strongly favoured and its dominance
importance is demonstrated in practice
9 Absolute importance Importance of one over another affirmed on the
highest possible order
2, 4, 6, 8 Intermediate values Used to represent compromise between the
priorities listed above
Reciprocal of above If activity i has one of the above non-zero numbers assigned to it when
non-zero numbers compared with activity j, then j has the reciprocal value when compared
with i
to the fuzzy set A where μ A ( x) is the membership function and X = {x} represents a
collection of elements x.
In this paper, triangular fuzzy numbers are used as the membership function, which is
illustrated in Figure 6. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used, since they help the decision
maker to make easier decisions (Kaufmann and Gupta, 1988). The membership function
of a triangular fuzzy number can be found in equation (1) and is usually notated by the
triplet (l, m, r).
⎧ 0 x<l
⎪ x−l
⎪ 1≤ x ≤ m
⎪
μ ( x A) = ⎨ m − l
(1)
⎪r−x m≤x≤r
⎪r − m
⎪ 0 x≥r
⎩
Various defuzzification methods exist, and the method adopted in this study was derived
from the converting fuzzy data into crisp scores (CFCS) defuzzification method
developed by Opricovic and Tzeng (2003) for performing fuzzy aggregation. The CSCF
method can clearly express fuzzy perception, which is based on the procedure of
228 A. Keramati et al.
determining the lower and upper scores by fuzzy min and fuzzy max, and the total score
is determined as a weighted average according to the membership functions (Lin, 2010).
The main features of the CFCS defuzzification method are:
• can be used for a MCDM model with a mixed set of crisp and fuzzy criteria
• is applicable for converting fuzzy numbers into crisp scores
• converting by considering membership function and relative location on the x-axis
• uses membership function as a weighting function within conversion (Opricovic and
Tzeng, 2003).
The steps of CSCF method are described as follow:
Step 1 Normalisation
Δ max
min = ri
max
− limin (3)
(
xij = lij − limin ) Δ max
min (4)
(
xmj = mij − limin ) max
Δ min (5)
(
xrj = rij − limin ) max
Δ min (6)
⎣ ( ⎦ )
xijk = ⎡ xlsijk 1 − xlsijk + xrsijk ⎤ ⎡⎣1 − xlsijk + xrsijk ⎤⎦ (9)
Z ij =
k
(Z 1
ij × Z ij2 × " × Z ijk ) (11)
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 229
In this equation, Zijk is a crisp value of evaluation between the criteria or alternative i and
j of the kth evaluator that should be calculated through CFCS method. Also, zij is the
aggregated crisp value of evaluations between the criteria or alternative i and j.
Using equation (11) different crisp evaluation of several decision makers will be
converted into one aggregated crisp value. After calculating the aggregated crisp value of
all evaluators, the final weight of each criteria or alternative can be calculated through
equation (12) which is introduced by Saaty (1980) and is known as geometric mean
method in AHP.
⎛ n ⎞
⎜
⎜ ∏ Z ij ⎟1/ n
⎟
Wi = ⎝j =1 ⎠ i, j = 1, 2," , n (12)
n ⎛ n ⎞
∑∏ ⎜
⎜
i =1 ⎝ j =1
Z ij ⎟1/ n
⎟
⎠
In this equation ‘n’ is the number of decision criteria or alternative in pair wise
comparisons table.
According the analysis of Csutora and Buckley (2001), let R = [rij ] be a fuzzy
judgment matrix with triangular fuzzy number, rij = (αij , βij , γij ) and form [ ] R = [βij].
If R is consistent, then R is consistent. By using this definition consistency ratio
(CR) for each pair wise comparison matrix for each one experts was considered. If
subjective judgments of the experts were inconsistent, the author asked them to repeat the
pair wise comparison process until the consistency index got valid. After being sure about
CR, the questionnaires were analysed.
The ANP is composed of four major steps (Yuksel and Dagdeviren, 2007):
Step 1 Model construction and problem structuring: the problem should be stated
clearly and be decomposed into a rational system, like a network.
Step 2 Pair wise comparison matrices and priority vectors: similar to the comparisons
performed in AHP, pairs of decision elements at each cluster are compared with
respect to their importance towards their control criteria. The clusters
themselves are also compared pair wise with respect to their contribution to the
objective. In addition, interdependencies among elements of a cluster must also
be examined pair wise.
Step 3 Supermatrix formation: the supermatrix concept is similar to the Markov chain
process (Saaty, 1996). To obtain global priorities in a system with
interdependent influences, the local priority vectors are entered in the
appropriate columns of a matrix. As a result, a supermatrix is actually a
partitioned matrix, where each matrix segment represents a relationship between
two clusters in a system.
Step 4 Selection of the best alternatives: If the supermatrix formed in Step 3 covers the
whole network, the priority weights of the alternatives can be found in the
column of alternatives in the normalised supermatrix (Yuksel and Dagdeviren,
2007). After entering the normalised values into the supermatrix, the
230 A. Keramati et al.
Level 1 C1 C2 C3
C1 (1, 1, 1) (4, 5, 6) (1/4, 1/3, 1/2)
C2 (1/6, 1/5, 1/4) (1, 1, 1) (1/8, 1/7, 1/6)
C3 (2, 3, 4) (6, 7, 8) (1, 1, 1)
λmax = 3.064; CI = 0.032; RI = 0.58; CR = 0.056
Level 1 C1 C2 C3
C1 (0.111, 0.111, 0.111) (0.492, 0.619, 0.746) (0.0159, 0.026, 0.048)
C2 (0.005, 0.01, 0.016) (0.111, 0.111, 0.111) (0, 0.002, 0.005)
C3 (0.238, 0.365, 0.492) (0.746, 0.873, 1) (0.111, 0.111, 0.111)
lmin = 0.125, rmax = 8, Δ = 7.875
Table 8 Computing lower (ls) and upper (us) normalised value with respect to level 1 of
expert 1
Level 1 C1 C2 C3
C1 (0.111, 0.111) (0.549, 0.662) (0.026, 0.047)
C2 (0.009, 0.016) (0.111, 0.111) (0.002, 0.005)
C3 (0.324, 0.437) (0.775, 0.887) (0.111, 0.111)
Table 9 Computing total normalised crisp value with respect to level 1 of expert 1
Level 1 C1 C2 C3
C1 0.111 0.616 0.027
C2 0.01 0.111 0.002
C3 0.368 0.866 0.111
Level 1 C1 C2 C3
C1 1 4.979 0.339
C2 0.2 1 0.143
C3 3.024 6.933 1
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 231
After applying CFCS method for all of experts and then using geometric average for
aggregate experts’ judgment, the result show in Tables 11 to 14 (Step 2).
Table 11 Weight of risk factors
Risk factor Weight of risk factor Risk factor Weight of risk factor
(level 1) (level 1) (level 2) (level 2)
C1 0.113 C11 0.303
C12 0.120
C13 0.243
C14 0.204
C15 0.130
C2 0.513 C21 0.260
C22 0.439
C23 0.302
C3 0.374 C31 0.178
C32 0.584
C33 0.125
C34 0.114
Table 12 Inner dependence matrix of the risk factors with respect to ‘transaction’
Table 13 Inner dependence matrix of the risk factors with respect to ‘client’
Table 14 Inner dependence matrix of the risk factors with respect to ‘supplier’
After applying Steps 1 and 2, the supermatrix was formed that shown in Table 15
(Step 3).
Finally, the overall priority of the risk factors by using of weighted supermatrix and
limited supermatrix that shown respectively in Tables 16 and 17, were calculated
(Step 4). The ANP results indicate that Supplier’s lack of expertise with an IT operation
is the main risk factors with an overall priority value of 0.103 (see Table 18).
232 A. Keramati et al.
C1 C2 C3 Goal
C1 0 0.326 0.209 0.113
C2 0.708 0 0.791 0.513
C3 0.292 0.674 0 0.374
C11 0.303 0 0 0
C12 0.120 0 0 0
C13 0.243 0 0 0
C14 0.204 0 0 0
C15 0.130 0 0 0
C21 0 0.260 0 0
C22 0 0.439 0 0
C23 0 0.302 0 0
C31 0 0 0.178 0
C32 0 0 0.584 0
C33 0 0 0.125 0
C34 0 0 0.114 0
C1 C2 C3 Goal
C1 0 0.163 0.104 0.113
C2 0.354 0 0.396 0.513
C3 0.146 0.337 0 0.374
C11 0.151 0 0 0
C12 0.060 0 0 0
C13 0.122 0 0 0
C14 0.102 0 0 0
C15 0.065 0 0 0
C21 0 0.130 0 0
C22 0 0.219 0 0
C23 0 0.151 0 0
C31 0 0 0.089 0
C32 0 0 0.292 0
C33 0 0 0.062 0
C34 0 0 0.057 0
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 233
C1 C2 C3 Goal
C1 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107
C2 0.216 0.216 0.216 0.216
C3 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177
C11 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.033
C12 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.013
C13 0.026 0.026 0.026 0.026
C14 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.022
C15 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014
C21 0.056 0.056 0.056 0.056
C22 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095
C23 0.065 0.065 0.065 0.065
C31 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.031
C32 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103
C33 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.022
C34 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020
5 Model validation
The importance of testing the validity of models that are developed in operation research
studies is a well-known fact. However, it can be seen that the validity of the theoretical
234 A. Keramati et al.
base (Saaty, 1996) of the suggested ANP model has been neglected and specific criteria
for testing it have not been developed. The present study has faced some limitations and
difficulties with testing the validity of the suggested model.
The first of these difficulties stems from the fact that the factors in the ANP model are
not quantitative by nature. ANP is a technique that is used in solving multiple-criteria
decision-making problems where there is dependency between factors that are both
qualitative and quantitative in nature. Moreover, problems that are modelled by the ANP
pair wise comparison matrices used to determine the priority values for the factors are
determined by the judgment of experts. However, it is not always possible to objectively
assign numerical measurements to the elements in a decision-making problem, nor is it
possible to come up with the same results each time. This is because the data used in pair
wise comparison matrices may change depending on the subjective views of the experts.
Thus it is impossible to arrive at the same results using data obtained from different case
studies. However, this limitation is embedded in the very nature of decision-making
problems. Likewise, it is a well-known fact that different preferences are made under
different conditions. Consequently, the fact that the values of the pair wise comparative
factors change depending on the views of experts should not be a reason for rejecting the
validity of studies using the suggested ANP model.
Another problem that is encountered when testing the validity of the model is that the
model has not been analysed using past data, due to the unavailability of past data for the
particular management case under study. This problem, however, should not be viewed
as a significant shortcoming when evaluating the validity of the model. The comparison
matrices that are the inputs to the suggested model are defined under known conditions.
Thus it is possible to achieve different results since different pair wise comparison
matrices may be obtained at different points in time.
In consideration of the problems mentioned above, the validity of the proposed model
in this study was debated and evaluated in three ways. First, the results from the proposed
model were compared with AHP model. According to the ANP analysis, supplier’s lack
of expertise with an IT operation is the main risk factor. The same example is analysed
with hierarchical model. By assuming there is no dependence among the factors. In the
AHP analysis, the client’s lack of expertise with an IT operation is found to be the main
risk factor, with an overall priority value of 0.225. When dependence among the risk
factors taken to account, both the risk priorities and the ranking order of the risk factors
changes. The results obtain from the AHP and ANP analyses are comparatively list in
Table 19.
In cases where dependency among the risk factors is established, ANP analysis can be
performed in order to determine the alternative priorities so that organisations are able to
make correct decision. AHP analysis can be used in situations that there is no dependency
among factors or where the level of this dependency can be neglected.
The results obtained using the proposed model is presented in Section 3.3. Different
results are obtained when the ANP and AHP methods are implemented. However, such a
difference is expected because AHP does not take in to account dependencies among
factors while ANP does. For this reason, the ANP method is better able to model real
world situations as compared to the AHP method. Weight of ANP and AHP methods can
be seen in Figure 7.
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 235
Table 19 Weight and ranking of the strategies with AHP and ANP model
Figure 7 The comparisons weight of ANP and AHP methods (see online version for colours)
The second criterion for model validity in this study was the views of managements. The
managements of the organisations on which the case study was conducted have said that
they have found the results obtained from the suggested model to be meaningful and
useful.
Another parameter that verifies the validity of the model is the CR of the pair wise
comparison matrices. The CR in the pair wise comparison matrices is calculated using the
consistency index and the random index (Lin, 2010). The consistency index (CI) of a
matrix of comparisons is given by CI = (λmax − n) / (n − 1). Here, λmax is the maximum
eigen value and n is the size of matrix. The CR is obtained by forming the ratio of the CI
and the random index (RI). The value of the CR calculated using AHP and ANP must be
less than 0.1. Upon examination of all the calculated CRs, it can be seen that all the
236 A. Keramati et al.
values are less than 0.10. Given these CRs, we may be confident of the appropriateness of
the pair wise comparison matrices used in this study.
6 Conclusions
This study first provided a list of ITO project risk based on the literature. Lack of such a
comprehensive checklist was highly tangible in the literature of ITO risk projects. Risk
factors were extracted according to Bahli and Rivard (2005), advantages of using this
method is as the following these three points:
• The main purpose of this paper is validating measure of ITO risks, as result shows
that the outcome of these factors are validate.
• The main purpose of outsourcing is decreasing the cost,so transaction cost theory
have been used for introducing and categorising ITO risks in this article. We have to
point out that the main reason for selection of this theory is adoption of the
assumption to the real condition.
• The risks of this paper include the majority risks of other papers.
Second, it provides useful insights into which risk factors is the most important. The
former frameworks have focused on considering some proposed risks factors or
measuring their effects on the performance in ITO projects. Also, the former researches
have mainly investigated other aspects of ITO such as success/failure factors, relationship
between client and supplier in ITO, contracts, etc. But we can do this using the proposed
structure that considers dependency among risks according to some experts’ judgments.
Being simpler, more complete and more comprehensive are some advantages of this
structure. The results of this framework can easily be used in every firm willing to use
and implement ITO projects. Third, identifying and evaluating risk factors are the most
important steps of risk management process. Hence, the proposed framework of this
research can give suitable understanding of the present obstacles in successful
implementation of information technology projects and prioritising of these obstacles to
organisations that want to outsource this kind of projects. In addition, the proposed
framework can show appropriate strategies able to tackle with these obstacles to those
organisations.
7 Managerial implementations
According to the results obtained from this research, managers of outsourcing IT projects
have known ‘supplier’s lack of expertise with an IT operation’ as the most important
factor in success and failure of outsourcing of information technology projects. Factor
‘client’s lack of expertise with an IT operation’ with a little difference is the next most
important factor. After these factors, ‘Inadequate user involvement’ is the third most
important factor with a significant gap with the second most important factor. The two
factors, ‘lack of expertise of the client with outsourcing’ and ‘uncertainty’, are of fourth
and fifth place. The high importance of two factors ‘supplier’ and ‘client’ caused that
three sub-factors of these factors, ‘supplier’s lack of expertise with an IT operation’,
‘client’s lack of expertise with an IT operation’, and ‘inadequate user involvement’, are
Managing risk in information technology outsourcing 237
the three most important factors in outsourcing of information technology projects. The
less significance of factor ‘transaction’ caused risk factor ‘relatedness’ has the lowest
priority among risk factors in outsourcing of IT projects.
It is obvious that if the supplier lacks enough skill in information technology
operations, it cannot supply the employer requirements which will make negative effects
in the project performance. In addition, if the client lacks sufficient skill in information
technology and outsourcing operations and cannot supervise the project well, project
advancement will be endangered. The risk factor ‘relatedness’ has the lowest priority
among 12 risk factors because project managers try to outsource some parts of the
projects that have the lowest dependency with other parts and other projects.
After prioritising of risks present in outsourcing of IT projects, following five factors
as the most important ones have been assessed and policies and strategies that should be
used for successful implementation of outsourcing of information technology projects
have been mentioned.
1 Supplier’s lack of expertise with an IT operation
Selecting the supplier with enough skill by technical and qualitative evaluation of
suppliers before contracting through experienced expert teams.
2 Client’s lack of expertise with an IT operation
Preferment of technical knowledge of related personnel using internal and external
educations and consultant companies with enough technical knowledge for
collaboration in information technology projects.
3 Inadequate user involvement
Project management structure should be implemented based on PMBOK standard for
information technology projects.
4 Lack of expertise of the client with outsourcing
Preferment of technical knowledge of financial and trading departments’ personnel
related to increase in skills of projects outsourcing or preferment of technical
knowledge related to evaluation of suppliers of information technology projects.
5 Uncertainty
Use of experienced consultants in contracting of information technology projects
with considering all technical and legal issues of these kinds of agreements.
Like all research, ours has its limitations. First, our study does not examined other aspects
of point of view such as supplier perspective in the state of offshore outsourcing and
compare its results with this study. So, as one future research line, considering different
combinations of views and approaches for risk management of outsourcing of
information technology projects would be a potential proposal. Second, the ANP
approach illustrated in this paper has a few limitations as well. For example, the outcome
of the model is dependent on the inputs provided by the decision-maker(s). The
238 A. Keramati et al.
possibility of the decision maker’s biasness towards any particular alternative cannot be
ruled out while applying this model. So, using methods other than ANP for prioritising of
risk factors of outsourcing of information technology projects and comparison of
achieved results from those methods with the results of ANP is proposed for future
research.
Third, the number of criteria and their related sub-criteria can affect on the
applicability of fuzzy ANP method as the decision-maker(s) might have to make great
deal of judgments in constructing pair wise matrices.
Additionally, the present research has been carried out by using information
technology project managers’ opinions in May 2010 when these projects only were
outsourced to domestic companies for information system’s project. Using the proposed
framework in this research and implementation of that for prioritising of risk factors and
selecting the best strategy to respond to these risk factors in other fields (e.g., in a country
other than Iran or in a special organisation or industry) or doing similar research in the
future and comparing their results with current research results would be a research line
which present research has started.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful for the valuable comments and suggestion from the respected
reviewers. Their valuable comments and suggestions have enhanced the strength and
significance of our paper. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of
the University of Tehran for this research under Grant Number 7314812/1/04.
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