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Global Politics at the Turn
of the Millennium:
ChangingBases of "Us"and "Them"
YaleH. Ferguson
RutgersUniversity-Newark
RichardW. Mansbach
Iowa State University
to DavisBobrow,JohnGroom,Stuart
Theauthorswishto expresstheirappreciation
Kaufman,andthelateSusanStrangefortheirhelpfulcommentson anearlierversionof
thisarticle.
? 1999 InternationalStudies Association
Publishedby Blackwell Publishers,350 Main Street,Malden, MA 02148, USA, and 108 Cowley Road, OxfordOX4 1JF,UK.
78 Ferguson and Mansbach
Little(1993:227)remark:"Theprojectof
3 BarryBuzan,CharlesJones,andRichard
the modemstateconsistedin plantinga fingerin everypie. It ... madethe statepecu-
liarlycentralamongothersocial institutions,andthatis why we continueto takethe
view thatstates. .. currentlyofferthe bestavailablewayof openingconduitsbetween
whatis unconscious,personal,andcustomary,andwhatis self-conscious,public,and
legal."
80 Ferguson and Mansbach
4 Thereis no consensus
aboutwhat"democracy" is, andby anyreasonabledefinition,
Moresignifi-
thenumberof historicalcasesis too smallforpurposesof generalization.
cant, thoughneglectedbecauseit threatensstatisttheory,is the questionof what
meansforthelegitimacyof governments.
increasingpopularparticipation
Global Politics at the Turnof the Millennium 81
STRUCTURES
The debate about global structuresharksback to the fundamentalpuzzle of how
the whole and its parts are related.5The agent/structureliterature6raises that
issue but by no means resolves it, eitherfor a single society or for the global sys-
tem as a whole. At one extremeis the parsimoniousneorealistmodel of Kenneth
Waltz (1979), in which the overall distributionof states' power capabilities
accountsfor everythingof importancethathappensin the internationalsystem as
a whole.7
"Reductionist"in a somewhatdifferentfashion is the traditionalemphasisof
realists and other theorists on the territorialstate and interstaterelations. The
modernsocial sciences emerged at the height of the Europeanstate's power and
prestige in the late nineteenthand early twentiethcenturiesand so involved what
Peter Taylor (1996) calls "embeddedstatism."Ignoring the fact that the legiti-
macy of violence arises from the ends it is deemed to serve rather than its
institutionalsource, Weber contributedthe fiction that states have a monopoly
on the legitimate use of violence. Later historical sociologists like John
Hall (1985), Mann (1986a, 1988, 1993), and CharlesTilly (1975) analyzedthe
growth of what Mann calls the "autonomouspower of the state" throughwar,
capitalism,and constitutionalinvention.However, in his extraordinaryexamina-
tion of social power reachingback to ancientMesopotamia,Mann (1986b) deals
with a much broaderrange of sociopolitical actorsthanthe Westphalianstate.
Historians, too, have traditionallyorganized scholarship around the state.
This was especially the case in the nineteenth-centuryheyday of nationalism,
when they were busily constructingthe historicalnarrativesand myths of their
homelands. During that era, the history of nations became synonymous with
the history of states. Some contemporaryhistorianslike William McNeill (cf.
1982) have also writtenaboutcivilizations and empires,but many, like McNeill
himself, retain a strong realist bias, emphasizing state power and militarytech-
nology. "So far," he declares (1997:274), "no promising alternative to the
territorialorganizationof armedforce has even begun to emerge."McNeill pays
little attentionto the economic and ideological factors that shapedstate consoli-
dation in the past and undermineit in the present. He is even outdated with
regardto armedforce, insofar as majorcountriestoday organize their militaries
with respect to an alliance or functionalactivity like peacekeeping.8
9AsJohnVasquez(1983)shows,thediscipline's"scientists" wereuncriticallystate-
centric.A worldof statescamewithready-made data,andtheabsenceof overlapamong
statesfacilitatedcomparison.Partlyin responseto the failureof "science"to advance
theoreticalunderstanding,therehasbeena revivalin normativequestionsgenerally.
"oFora detailedassessmentof Bull'spioneeringworkandessentialconservatism, see
Ferguson(1998).
Global Politics at the Turnof the Millennium 83
KEYPROCESSES:
FUSION/FISSION, GOVERNANCE, AND GLOBALIZATION
While there is little more consensus aboutglobal processes than structure,there
is general agreement about some trends. It appears, for instance, that we are
witnessing at least a temporaryglobal shift towardgreaterdemocracyand mass
" On this
point, see Fergusonand Mansbach(1988).
2 See
Mansbach,Ferguson, and Lampert(1976); Keohane and Nye (1972); Burton
(1972); and Rosenau (1984).
13See Kegley (1995) and Zacherand Matthew(1995).
84 Ferguson and Mansbach
14Cf.HelmanandRatner(1992-1993).
'5The growingimportanceof suchtradehas madelargelyobsoletethe conceptof
tradebalance.
financialtradinghascreateda "virtual"
16Deregulated worldof currencymarkets.Cf.
Drucker(1997)andCohen(1998).
17Rosenau(1997) has soughtto apply theoriesof chaos and complexityto help
explainglobalpolitics.
Global Politics at the Turnof the Millennium 85
8MichelMaffesoli(1996:140)calls suchgroups"tribus."
86 Ferguson and Mansbach
reflected in events like the Mexican (1994) and Asian (1997-1998) financial
crises. Yet even in such a context the meaning and extent of globalization are
subject to disagreement.Some analysts advanceargumentsthat, taken together,
force us to qualify any characterizationof the world economy as fully "global-
ized" or of the currentsituationin thatregardas entirelyunprecedented.Still, in
a number of ways today's world economy is different from the past, and
economic trends are only one of several features making present-day global
politics incomprehensiblefromthe perspectiveof traditionalEurocentrictheory.
Partof the problemin securingagreementaboutsuch mattersis the perennial
one of theorists talking past one anotherbecause of conceptual confusion. For
example, how "new"is "globalization"when conceived of only as "the growth
of internationaltradeand investment,linking a growing numberof countriesin
increasinglyintense exchanges in an open world tradingsystem?"Defining and
measuringglobalizationin this way leads Paul Hirst(1997:410-412) to conclude
that such "a process has been going on, punctuatedby the interruptionsof severe
economic crises and wars, for well over a century."He identifies "threemajor
phases." The initial phase was "the belle poque of 1870-1914, when world
tradeand outputgrew in parallelat an annualrateof 3.5 percentand 4.5 percent,
respectively." Thus, "By the late nineteenth century, the whole world had
become partof a developed and interconnectedcommercialcivilization."A sec-
ond period of growthextendedfrom the end of WorldWarII throughthe OPEC
(Organizationof the Petroleum-ExportingCountries)oil crisis of 1973, when
trade grew annually 9.4 percent and output 5.3 percent. The last phase was
1973-1979, when capital movements acceleratedbecause of the deregulation
of financial markets and floating exchange rates. The importance of Hirst's
definition of globalization becomes apparentwhen he points out that the first
two periodsdid not "underminethe nation-state"and that,in fact, "manymodern
nation-stateswere forged duringthe belle poque and sustainedby rapidindus-
trial growth."And, between 1950 and 1973, supposedly the "heydayof auton-
omy in national economic policy and of Keynesian demand management,"he
finds that when governments cooperated, they could exercise considerable
"supranationalgovernance."20
But can states today control the economic forces that affect their citizens?
Hirst (1997:415) thinks so. Acknowledging that direct merchandisetrade has
become much less significant as capital flows have increased, he nonetheless
points out that more than 90 percent of FDI (foreign direct investment) is still
20Hirst(1997:418)also
arguesthatfirms"arestill multinational,
not transnational;
thatis, thattheyhavea homebasein one of theTriad[Europe,Japan,andNorthAmer-
ica] countries"and"arenotfootloosecapitalbutarerootedin a majormarketin oneof
the threemostprosperous regionsof the globe."Fora similarargument,
see Paulyand
Reich(1997).
88 Ferguson and Mansbach
covet territorythatis not the main source of wealth (Kuwaitis an exception that
proves the rule) or botherto adjustbordersthatare so easily transcended?
How then did the state acquire such a hold over the imaginationof social
scientists? The tale might open with "once upon a time in old Europe."There
was indeed a genuine "Westphalianmoment,"andit was thatvery experienceof
the emergenceand consolidationof the sovereignstate in Europe,andthe expan-
sion of Europe's power and ideas that spawned a scholarly traditionthat was
both Eurocentricand ahistorical. A few princes wrested exclusive control of
dynastic domains that they then expanded at the expense of neighbors, in the
process seducing the loyalties of and joining forces with an emerging urban
commercialclass. People did not immediatelysurrendertheiridentities as Euro-
peans, Christians,or members of the Holy Roman Empire, but those identities
became relatively less central to their lives. Of course, rulers might use strong
incentives to discourage subjects from showing more loyalty to church than
state, as Henry VIII did when he required subjects to declare publicly their
loyalty to him and seized churchpropertiesin England.
Although the process of consolidation was somewhat different in each
country and remained incomplete nearly everywhere-especially in Germany
and Italy-the personalrealmsof flesh-and-bloodmonarchsevolved into territo-
rial states endowed with sovereignty. Internationallaw codified this situation,
detailingthe practice,rights, and obligationsof those young leviathansthatwere
legal equalsand supposedlysubjectto no higherauthoritythanGod the Creator.
The Westphalianstate prosperedbecause it was better able than any other
polity to reduce violence within its boundaries,manageviolence externally,and
mobilize the abilities and resourcesof subjects. During the mercantilistera, the
state began to take on more economic functions.In the late eighteenthand nine-
teenth centuries, it received an enormous boost in legitimacy from the rise of
nationalism and notions of popular sovereignty. Then arrived the twentieth-
centurywelfare state.As Taylor(1996, p. 1920) suggests, thatis how the modern
political map was born:"[States']historicalsocial constructionswere interpreted
as an inevitableoutcome of political progress,and the familiarboundarieson the
world political map came to be viewed like 'other' naturalfeatures such as
rivers, mountain ranges, and coastlines. Being 'natural,' states precluded all
other social worlds."
European states carried the state concept with them when they acquired
empires by conqueringmost of the rest of the world. The concept came back to
haunt them when subject peoples demanded their own independence. Later
claimants could cite the right of "self-determinationof peoples" that was
enshrined in the United Nations (UN) Charter.Perhaps not surprisingly,that
principle was interpretedas the right of self-proclaimednations to have their
own state, ratherthan the more limited protection schemes for minorities that
Woodrow Wilson had originally intended.In any event, most of the new states
Global Politics at the Turnof the Millennium 91
22See Osterud(1997).
23 We agreewithAlanJames(1986)on thispoint.
24 See JacksonandZacher(1997).
25 Statisticsarefromthe Economist
(1998),an articlebasedon the workof Harvard
economistAlbertoAlesina.
92 Ferguson and Mansbach
State Capacity
A second counterargumentis thatthe capacityat least of some states has grown,
allowing them to have a greaterimpact on the lives of citizens.30Governments
regulatetoxic chemicals, establishdrivingrules, createaffirmativeaction guide-
lines, and so forth. There is, in fact, considerable ambivalence in citizens'
attitudes,both an urgent need and desire for better governmentservices and a
pervadingdoubt whether governmentcan effectively provide them. Tax revolt
and privatizationmovements are worldwide. Be that as it may, there is no
denying that governmentsseem to have little capacity to protect citizens from
globalizing shocks and, indeed, appearfar more anxious to offer incentives and
remove obstacles to having their national economies fully integratedinto the
global economic system.
The "Asian state" is often cited as an exception to any generalizationthat
statesareweak. One difficulty with this reasoning,as we have noted, is thatsome
states in Asia are hard to differentiatefrom their private sector.31Singapore's
government startedout by identifying sectoral opportunitieswithin the global
economy for nationaland transnationalfirms, but somewherealong the line the
private-sectortail started wagging the dog. As for Japan, Strange (1996:6-7)
maintainedthat that country's "exceptionalism"was substantiallythe result of
Number of States
A thirdcounterargumentis that,with the rise of numerousmini-nationalisms,the
list of states is liable to grow longer ratherthan shorter.In remarkabledouble-
think fashion, statists thus transforma problemfor their map of the world-the
fact states may be disintegratingand boundariesthereforemight be alteredfrom
the inside-into a virtue. States are begettingmore states,up to several thousand
if all the movements succeed. We are supposed to applaudthis final triumphof
the nation-stateideal. Such a world would be far from anything we know at
presentand is highly unlikely to come aboutin any event. Many "ethnic"groups
"merely"want autonomy ratherthan full independence,which most would be
unableto obtaineven if they did want it. The demandsand often violent behavior
of such groups,however, will doubtlesscontinueto plague many existing states.
Interstate Cooperation
The last counterargumentis that states are recovering many of their lost pre-
rogatives by cooperatingthroughinternationalorganizationsand regimes, and
using NGOs and INGOs as well-entities that do have the capacity to operate
across sovereign boundaries.Doublethinkcontinues:states simply cannot cope
by themselves, so they are salvaging "their"authoritypartly by creating inter-
nationalinstitutionsthat "they"still control? In fact, states' outsourcing(rather
like firms) to other polities are helping states to cope with some contemporary
challenges. The results differ from issue to issue, and the eventual impact on
citizen identities and loyalties remainsto be seen.
96 Ferguson and Mansbach
andVasquez(1981:143-185).
32See Mansbach
Global Politics at the Turnof the Millennium 97
CONCLUSIONS
The field of international relations-necessarily renamed global or world
politics37-is graduallyredefiningits mainstreamaway from power capabilities
and territorialstates. It is not yet clear what that mainstreamwill look like in
coming decades, but we can hazard a good guess. It will revolve around the
effective control or influence exercised by a wide range of authoritiesor poli-
ties-and the sources of thatcontrolor influence. Thatbringsus back, in turn,to
identity politics, rooted in the assumptionthatboundariesand loyalties are vari-
ables owing to the ever-changingmeaningof "us"and "them.""Individualsand
groups ... identify simultaneouslywith several communitiesthat are all imag-
ined; these identifications are historically changeable, and often conflict
internallyand with each other"(Duara 1996:153).
Theory will be strongly concerned with ideology and other means that
leadersuse to constructand manipulateidentities,to attractand anchorloyalty-
how they rewritehistory, harnessliteratureand art,adaptancient myths, and, if
necessary,even createnew ones to do so. Like Lenin tryingto make proletarians
of nationalistworkers in 1914, Stalin appealingto Russian patriotismand jetti-
soning Marxism in 1941,38 or Elizabeth I encouraging Shakespeareto glorify
England, the English language, and its Tudor rulers, leaders must attempt to
shape identities, establishtheirpolity's legitimacy, and build loyalty for the lon-
ger haul. Polities need to be perceived as moral communities. Thereafter,the
continuedcapacity to deliver materialgoods, and a modicum of coercion secure
authority.
Identitypolitics necessarilyfocuses on change, adoptinga historicalperspec-
tive. As identities change, so do the relative strengthand importanceof different
polities. American history, for instance, is the story of how British colonies
became, first, thirteenautonomousstates, then a confederation,and, eventually,
a single federalpolity. Duringthe RevolutionaryWar,those who believed them-
selves to be "British"fled to Canada,and it took a civil war to determinethe
hierarchy between one's identity and allegiance as a South Carolinian or a
Georgianand the identity and allegiance owed to the United States.
When the territorialstate triumphedover other polities, first in Europe and
then beyond, it provided"thelink between identityand self-rule"and "laidclaim
to the allegiance of its citizens on the ground that its exercise of sovereignty
expressedtheircollective identity."For hundredsof years, it answered"a yearn-
ing for political arrangementsthat can situate people in a world increasingly
governedby vast and distantforces" (Sandel 1996:74). Put bluntly,the state can
no longer do so, and citizenship is thereforeincreasinglya problematicalpoliti-
cal identity.
In global politics, facts and values will be reunited. Indeed, the erosion
of state authorityand increasing globalization raises critical normativeissues.
Declining state autonomy in the face of marketexigencies reduces the state's
commitment and capacity to provide economic security and social welfare
programsfor citizens. Moreover,growing reliance on the anonymousdecision-
makingof global marketsand, more broadly,on governanceratherthan govern-
mentmeans a reducedcommitmentto traditionalstate-centricdemocraticnorms.
As the commitmentto efficiency measuredby corporateprofits grows, the norm
of accountability recedes. The destiny of citizens drifts away from elected
governments,however enfeebled, and lands to a substantialdegree in the hands
of corporationsand banks,global hedge funds, the InternationalMonetaryFund,
and so forth. States are losing their capacity to provide distributivejustice and
can no longer shelter citizens from the vicissitudes of the supposedly external
world.
Another dramaticshift involves the conduct of war. During the European
epoch of state supremacy, armies fought one another according to rules that
supposedly limited violence and protectedcivilians, and the line between war
and banditrywas relatively demarcated.Those rules, to be sure, affordedlittle
protectioneither for non-Christiansin tribalpolities outside Europeor for civil-
ians who daredraise their hands againstthe state or were so unlucky as to be in
the line of fire. The former"didnot know the state andits sharply-drawndivision
between government, army, and people," and were therefore "automatically
declared to be bandits"(Van Creveld 1991:41), and those who challenged the
state threatenedthe unity and peace accordedby sovereignty.
The erosion of state authorityand the growing centralityof identities other
than citizen has been accompaniedby a decline of restraintson violence and its
decouplingfrom traditionalstatistconceptionsof political purpose.FromBosnia
and Somalia to the GreatLakes region of Africa,39it is difficult to distinguish
between organized war "as a real political instrument"in the Clausewitzian
sense (Von Clausewitz 1943:16) and mindless savagery or crime. What Von
Clausewitz, as the theorist of state-centricwarfare, "made no allowance for,"
declares John Keegan (1993; p. 5), "was . . . the endemic warfareof non-state,
even pre-statepeoples, in which there was no distinction between lawful and
unlawful bearersof arms."Of course, many of those who died in the numerous
wars, including "civil" ones, since Westphalia may have been insufficiently
indoctrinatedto appreciatethe fine points of law. At least postmodernwar raises
the right issues: what specific purposes does violence serve or not serve, and
what sorts of ends and targetsare appropriate?
The state will not disappear,but it will be forever variable and, even at its
most substantial, a truncated version of the Westphalian ideal. Scholte
(1997:452) summarizessome of the changes:"Largelyowing to globalizing cap-
ital, states of the late twentieth century have on the whole lost sovereignty,
acquired supraterritorialconstituents,retreatedfrom interstatewarfare (for the
moment), frozen or reduced social security provisions, multiplied multilateral
governancearrangements,and lost considerabledemocraticpotential."
Looking towardthe twenty-firstcentury,everyone's crystal ball is perforce
extremely cloudy, but three trends suggest themselves. First, the more estab-
lished states strive, with varying degrees of success, to continue in a utilitarian
role: defining some jurisdictionalboundaries,positioning their national econo-
mies to attract capital and remain competitive in a global context, assuring
citizens of reasonableequality before the law, maintainingan adequatemilitary
force for an occasional foray to a world troublespot,and providing a minimum
standardof public services. Meanwhile, the private sector-firms, nonprofits,
and individuals-assumes increasing responsibilityfor nearly everything from
educationto soup kitchensto police protection.The link between state and iden-
tity is weaker, and citizens have access to a rich universe of local, regional, and
transnationalnetworks and polities. This situation alreadyexists to a consider-
able extent in the developed world.
A second trend is one in which interstate organizations and less-formal
regimes, aided by a variety of NGOs, make limited attempts to address "the
common enemies of mankind"and regularlyintervene-like the UN and NATO
in Somalia, Bosnia, and Cambodia-to restorepeace and providematerialrelief
for citizens living in states thathave failed or are in dangerof doing so. A more
activist variantof the latter function would involve reviving something akin to
the UN trusteeship system. What little remains of state autonomy becomes
increasingly diluted throughhabitual multilateralismand, in the case of failed
states, is virtuallyirrelevant.
A third possibility, unfortunately,is an extended period of chaos akin to
Robert Kaplan's (1994; p. 75) apocalyptic vision of the "last map": "Imagine
cartographyin three dimensions, as if in a hologram.In this hologramwould be
overlapping sediments of group and other identities atop the merely two-
dimensionalcolor markingsof city-states and the remainingnations,themselves
confused in places by shadowy tentacles, hovering overhead, indicating the
power of drug cartels, mafias, and privatesecurity agencies. Insteadof borders,
therewould be moving 'centers'of power, as in the Middle Ages." Exaggerated,
102 Ferguson and Mansbach
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