Valuation Model Instructions

1. Link everything that can be linked (reference source cells for data in formulas, try not to type a number in a form
2. Fill in all bold blue cells manually with data pulled from Bloomberg, Morning Star, Yahoo! Finance, etc
 ot to type a number in a formula)
Yahoo! Finance, etc or by referencing other cells in worksheet
Spirit Aerosystems
Starting Inputs
($ in millions, except per share)

Current Year: 2011

Price Target Year: 2012

Company Name: Spirit Aerosystems

Ticker: SPR
Current Price: $19.25
Current Dividend: $1.75
Market Cap: $2,750
Debt: $0.00
Cash: $0.00
Spirit Aerosystems
Income Statement – Annual

($ in millions, except per share) 2005A 2006A 2007A

Net revenues
Fuselage Systems $638 $1,570 $1,791
Propulsion Systems 372 888 1,064
Wing Systems 171 720 986
All Other 28 30 21
Total, net revenues $1,208 $3,208 $3,861

Gross profit $152 $274 $461

Segment operating income

Fuselage Systems $44 $113 $318
Propulsion Systems 25 34 174
Wing Systems 6 12 111
All Other (1) 4 3
Total, segment operating income $73 $162 $606

Unallocated corporate SG&A ($108) ($217) ($182)

Unallocated research and development (1) (2) (5)
Transition costs re: Boeing acquisition - - -
Other 1 - -
Total, operating income ($36) ($56) $419

Interest expense and financing fee amortization ($25) ($50) ($37)

Capex accretion 10 21 -
Interest income 6 9 29
Other income, net - 6 8
Income (loss) from cont. operations before income tax ($45) ($72) $420

Income tax provision ($14) $88 ($123)

Tax rate (%) -31% 123% 29%

Net income (loss) before Equity in Net Loss of Affiliate ($59) $17 $297
Equity in Net Loss of Affiliate

Earnings per share -$0.52 $0.14 $2.13

Pro forma $2.17

Diluted shares outstanding 114.0 121.4 139.3

EBITDA ($4) $7 $524

RATIOS AND STATISTICS

Revenue yr/yr % change 165.5% 20.4%
Gross profit yr/yr % change 123.9% 273.1%
Segment operating income yr/yr % change 123.9% 273.1%
Operating income yr/yr % change 58.1% -844.6%
Net income yr/yr % change 1667.3%
EPS yr/yr % change 1438.9%

Gross margin 12.5% 8.5% 11.9%

Segment operating margin 6.0% 5.1% 15.7%
Operating margin -2.9% -1.8% 10.9%
Adjusted operating margin -3.1% -1.8% 10.9%
EBITDA margin -0.3% 0.2% 13.6%
Adj. EBITDA margin (787 R&D and transition) 8.9% 6.2% 13.6%
Pretax margin -3.7% -2.2% 10.9%
Net income margin -4.9% 0.5% 7.7%

COST AND EXPENSES

Cost of sales ($1,057) ($2,934) ($3,400)
Selling, general and administrative (74) (225) (165)
Acquisition, restructuring, and other expenses (36) (95) -
Research and development (787/A380 related) (76) (98) -
Other research and development (3) (7) (50)
Other 1 95 173
Total costs and expenses ($1,244) ($3,264) ($3,442)
Check: $0 $0 -

Cost of goods sold % of sales 87.5% 91.5% 88.1%

SG&A (incl. transition expenses) % of sales 9.1% 10.0% 4.3%
SG&A % of sales 6.2% 7.0% 4.3%
Acquisition, restructuring, and other expenses % of sales 3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
R&D (total) % of sales 6.5% 3.3% 1.3%
R&D (787/A380) % of sales 6.3% 3.0% 0.0%
Other research and development % of sales 0.2% 0.2% 1.3%
Unallocated corporate SG&A % of sales 9.0% 6.7% 4.7%
Unallocated research and development % of sales 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
SG&A (incl. transition expenses) % of sales 11.9% 9.7% 4.7%

SEGMENT INFORMATION
YR/YR % change
Fuselage Systems 146.2% 14.1%
Propulsion Systems 138.5% 19.8%
Wing Systems 322.2% 36.8%
All Other 7.2% -29.3%

Segment margin
Fuselage Systems 6.8% 7.2% 17.7%
Propulsion Systems 6.6% 3.8% 16.4%
Wing Systems 3.3% 1.6% 11.3%
All Other -4.3% 14.5% 11.9%
 sources throughout model: Company filings and BofAML

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

$1,758 $2,004 $2,035 $2,417 $2,882 $3,369 $3,827

1,032 1,030 1,062 1,161 1,305 1,409 1,477
956 1,024 1,067 1,137 1,251 1,348 1,410
26 21 8 24 - - -
$3,772 $4,079 $4,172 $4,739 $5,437 $6,126 $6,714

$609 $497 $565 $521 $788 $919 $1,007

$288 $288 $292 $312 $388 $421 $448

162 123 138 182 183 197 207
100 21 101 31 105 116 124
0 (1) (2) 2 - - -
$550 $430 $529 $527 $676 $734 $779

($142) ($123) ($140) ($142) ($163) ($184) ($201)

(2) (4) (4) (2) (4) (5) (5)
- - - -
- - (29) (11) - - -
$406 $303 $357 $371 $509 $546 $573

($39) ($44) ($59) ($81) ($74) ($78) ($76)

- - - - - - -
19 7 0 - - - -
(1) 6 (0) - - - -
$384 $273 $298 $290 $435 $468 $497

($119) ($81) ($78) ($90) ($143) ($154) ($169)

31% 30% 26% 31% 33% 33% 34%

$265 $192 $220 $200 $291 $314 $327

($0) ($1) ($1) - - -
$192 $219 $200 $291 $314 $327
$1.30 $1.95 $2.15 $2.25
$1.91 $1.37 $1.55 $1.40 $2.05 $2.20 $2.30
$1.91 $2.04 $1.55 $1.40 $2.05 $2.20 $2.30

139.2 139.8 141.0 142.2 142.3 142.5 142.6

 $538 $437 $485 $513 $645 $687 $718

-2.3% 8.1% 2.3% 13.6% 14.7% 12.7% 9.6%

-9.2% -21.9% 23.2% -0.5% 28.3% 8.7% 6.1%
-9.2% -21.9% 23.2% -0.5% 28.3% 8.7% 6.1%
-3.2% -25.2% 17.7% 4.0% 37.0% 7.4% 4.9%
-10.6% -27.7% 14.4% -8.8% 45.4% 7.7% 4.4%
-10.3% -28.3% 13.1% -9.7% 46.4% 7.3% 4.5%

16.1% 12.2% 13.5% 11.0% 14.5% 15.0% 15.0%

14.6% 10.5% 12.7% 11.1% 12.4% 12.0% 11.6%
10.8% 7.4% 8.6% 7.8% 9.4% 8.9% 8.5%
10.8% 7.4% 8.6% 7.8% 9.4% 8.9% 8.5%
14.3% 10.7% 11.6% 10.8% 11.9% 11.2% 10.7%
14.3% 10.7% 11.6% 10.8% 11.9% 11.2% 10.7%
10.2% 6.7% 7.1% 6.1% 8.0% 7.6% 7.4%
7.0% 4.7% 5.3% 4.2% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9%

($3,163) ($3,581) ($3,608) ($4,218) ($4,649) ($5,207) ($5,707)

(155) (137) (156) (156) (163) (184) (201)
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
(48) (57) (52) (38) (82) (92) (101)
- - - 44 (35) (97) (132)
($3,366) ($3,775) ($3,815) ($4,368) ($4,929) ($5,580) ($6,141)
- ($0) - - - -

83.9% 87.8% 86.5% 89.0% 85.5% 85.0% 85.0%

4.1% 3.4% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
4.1% 3.4% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
3.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
3.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
-1.8% 13.9% 1.6% 18.8% 19.2% 16.9% 13.6%
-3.0% -0.2% 3.1% 9.4% 12.4% 8.0% 4.8%
-3.0% 7.2% 4.2% 6.6% 9.9% 7.8% 4.6%
24.3% -21.5% -60.5% 192.6% -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

16.4% 14.4% 14.4% 12.9% 13.5% 12.5% 11.7%

15.7% 11.9% 12.9% 15.7% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
10.4% 2.0% 9.5% 2.7% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8%
1.1% -6.8% -22.2% 7.6% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2015E

$4,190
1,491
1,349
71
$7,102

$1,065

$478
209
121
4
$812

($213)
(5)

-
$594

($74)
-
-
-
$520

($177)
34% Why does tax rate creep up?

$342
-
$342
$2.35
$2.40
$2.40

142.8 No buy back given the cash build up?

 $743

5.8%
4.2%
4.2%
3.6%
4.6%
4.3% Sluggish EPS growth in out years - really?

15.0%
11.4%
8.4%
8.4%
10.5%
10.5%
7.3%
4.8% Zero margin expansion with move from development cycle to production cycle?

($6,036)
(213)
-
-
(107)
(152)
($6,508)

85.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.0%
1.5%
0.0%
1.5%
3.0%
0.1%
3.0%
 9.5%
1.0%
-4.3%
#DIV/0!

11.4%
14.0%
9.0%
5.0%
Spirit Aerosystems
Balance Sheet – Annual

($ in millions, except per share) 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A

ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $241 $184 $133 $217
Accounts receivable, net 100 200 160 149
Long-term accounts receivable, current 43 110 109
Inventories, net 506 882 1,343 1,882
Prepaid expenses 11 21 14 10
Income tax receivable 22 10 4
Deferred tax assets 2 68 74 63
Total current assets $860 $1,421 $1,843 $2,433

Property and equipment $519 $774 $964 $1,068

Long-term receivable 213 192 123 -
Prepaid pension 207 319 60
Other assets 64 129 92 199
TOTAL ASSETS $1,654 $2,722 $3,341 $3,760

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDER'S

EQUITY
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable $169 $339 $363 $317
Accrued expenses 126 170 164 144
Current portion of long-term debt 12 24 16 7
Deferred revenue liability 37 110 249
Income taxes and other 1 - 23 26
Total current liabilities $307 $570 $675 $743

Long-term debt (incl. revolving credit facility) $710 $594 $579 $581
Customer advance 200 587 653 924
Pension obligation 53 20 43 47
Post-employment benefit obligation 48 34 - -
Other 8 58 123 168
Other liabilities 308 699 819 1,139
Deferred tax liability, non-current 2 - - -
Commitments and contingent liabilities - - - -

Stockholders' equity
Preferred stock - - - -
Common stock, Class A - 1 1 1
 Common stock, Class B 0 1 0 0
Additional paid-in capital 381 859 925 940
Accumulated other comprehensive loss 4 73 118 (134)
Accumulated deficit (59) (74) 223 490
Total stockholders' equity $326 $859 $1,267 $1,297

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDER'S $1,654 $2,722 $3,341 $3,760

 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

$369 $482 $251 $328 $503 $724 $969

160 200 240 253 269 276 292
- - -
2,207 2,508 2,600 2,611 2,568 2,423 2,216
14 - - - - - -
46 - - - - - -
57 105 99 113 127 140 148
$2,853 $3,295 $3,190 $3,305 $3,467 $3,563 $3,625

$1,279 $1,470 $1,596 $1,763 $1,964 $2,194 $2,440

- - - - - - -
171 172 196 225 253 277 293
170 165 113 108 103 98 93
$4,473.8 $5,102 $5,094 $5,401 $5,787 $6,132 $6,452

$441 $444 $522 $548 $642 $704 $744

166 220 180 207 233 255 270
9 10 15 7 7 8 8
345 303 31 31 31 31 31
22 189 20 20 20 20 20
$982 $1,164 $768 $812 $933 $1,018 $1,073

$591 $1,187 $1,260 $1,253 $1,246 $1,238 $1,230

728 655 651 629 589 529 459
63 73 73 73 73 73 73
46 - - - - - -
491 212 320 320 320 320 320
1,327 940 1,044 1,022 981 922 852
- - - - - - -
- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
950 984 1,061 1,352 1,666 1,993 2,335
(60) (75) (73) (73) (73) (73) (73)
682 901 1,033 1,033 1,033 1,033 1,033
$1,574 $1,811 $2,023 $2,314 $2,628 $2,955 $3,298

$4,474 $5,102 $5,094 $5,401 $5,787 $6,132 $6,452

Big cash build up - 35% of its current market cap!
Spirit Aerosystems
Cash Flow – Annual

($ in millions, except per share) 2005A 2006A 2007A

Cash flows from operating activities:
Net income (59) $17 $297
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by
operating activities:
Depreciation expense 29 53 97
Amortization expense 3 10 8
Accretion of long-term receivable (10) (22) (21)
Pension (4) (33) (20)
Employee stock compensation 4 182 33
Other non-cash items 4 (119) (26)
Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of acquisition:
Accounts receivable (89) (42) 21
Inventories (26) (318) (459)
Other current assets (0) (11) 7
Accounts payable 82 154 25
Accrued liabilities 95 - -
Income taxes 5 - 46
Customer advance from Boeing 200 400 123
Other (8) - 50
Net cash provided by operating activities $224 $272 $180

Cash flows from investing activities:

Purchase of property, plant, and equipment ($145) ($343) ($288)
Proceeds from sales of operating investments - 46
Acquisition of business, net of cash acquired (886) (145) -
Other - 15 4
Net cash used in investing activities ($1,030) ($474) ($239)

Cash flows from financing activities:

Proceeds from issuance of debt $700 - -
Debt issuance costs (21) 1 -
Payments of debt - (124) (25)
Equity contributions from shareholders 370 - -
Executive stock investments 4 1 (1)
Other - 265 34
Net cash (used) provided by financing activities $1,053 $143 $8

Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 2 (0)

Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents $246 ($57) ($51)

Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of year - 184 76

Cash and cash equivalents at the end of year 246 127 26

Free cash flow (excluding customer advances) $79 ($71) ($108)

Diluted Shares Oustanding: 114.0 121.4 139.3
FCF per share $0.69 ($0.59) ($0.78)
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

$265 $192 $219 $200 $291 $314 $327

122 123 115 128 132 136 140

9 11 13 14 5 5 5
(16) (7) - - - - -
(28) 2 - (17) (29) (28) (24)
16 10 29 9
5 23 28 22
- - - -
15 (8) (42) (35) (13) (15) (7)
(570) (321) (300) (90) (11) 43 145
(13) (53) - - (15) (14) (12)
(38) 126 27 94 25 94 62
- - - (56) 27 26 22
7 - - - - - -
341 (98) (140) (166) (22) (41) (60)
94 (15) 177 (153) - - -
$211 ($14) $125 ($49) $391 $519 $597

($236) ($228) ($288) ($249) ($299) ($337) ($369)

2 - - - - - -
- - - -
114 116 (0) 0 - - -
($120) ($112) ($288) ($248) ($299) ($337) ($369)

$26 $300 $450 -

(7) (17) - -
(16) (8) (160) 65 (15) (7) (7)
- - - -
- - - -
- 1 (13) 1 - - -
$3 $276 $277 $66 ($15) ($7) ($7)

($11) $3 ($2) $0
 $83 $152.5 $113 ($231) $77 $175 $221

217 217 369 482

217 369 482 251

($25) ($242) ($163) ($297) $92 $182 $228

139.2 139.8 141.0 142.2 142.3 142.5 142.6
($0.18) ($1.73) ($1.16) ($2.09) $0.64 $1.28 $1.60
2015E

$342

144
5
-
(16)

(16)
207
(8)
41
15
-
(70)
-
$644

($391)
-

-
($391)

(8)

-
($8)
$245

$253
142.8
$1.77
Spirit Aerosystems
($ in millions, except per share)

Dividend Discount Model

Dividend per share: $1.75 Current dividend
Required return: 11.1% From CAPM formula (DCF)
Dividend growth rate: 3.0% Historical 5-year average dividend growth, or use projected d
Fair value: $22.23

Formula: (dividend * [1+growth rate])/(r-g)

Note: Formula works if r>g
nd growth, or use projected dividend growth
Spirit Aerosystems
($ in millions, except per share)

DCF Valuation

(in million) Actual CAGR Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 (06 - 09) 2012
Sales 3,772 4,079 4,172 4,739 8% 5,119
% growth 8.1% 2.3% 13.6% 8.0%

Total costs -3,506 -3,887 -3,953 -4,539 9% -4,504

% sales 93.0% 95.3% 94.7% 95.8% 88.0%

EBITDA 538 437 485 513 -2% 614

% margin 14.3% 10.7% 11.6% 10.8% 12.0%

Depreciation & Amortization: -132 -134 -128 -142 -179

% sales 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 3.5%
EBIT 406 303 357 371 -3% 435

Taxes -119 -81 -78 -90 -135

Capex -236 -228 -288 -249 -307

% sales 6.3% 5.6% 6.9% 5.3% 6.0%

Increase/Decrease in NWC -137 -147 -522 277

Unlevered Free Cash Flow - Calc'd 183 -9 -29 -347 449

Unlevered FCF: Analyst Projections -25 -242 -163 -297 92
% sales 1.8%

WACC 8.5%
Discount Period 1.0
Discount Factor 0.92
Present value of free cash flow 85

Terminal Value
Terminal Year Free Cash Flow 279
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0%
Terminal Value 5,220
Discount Period 5.0
Discount Factor 0.7
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,472
% of Enterprise Value 82%

(in million) Actual Forecast period

Net Working Capital 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Account receivables 149 160 200 240
Inventory 1,882 2,207 2,508 2,600
Prepaid expenses and other 77 117 105 99
Total Current Assets 2,108 2,484 2,813 2,939 3,174
% sales 55.9% 60.9% 67.4% 62.0% 62.0%

Account payable 317 441 444 522

Accrued Liabilities 144 166 220 180
Other Current Liabilities 282 375 501 66
Total Current Liabilities -743 -982 -1,164 -768 -1,280
% sales 19.7% 24.1% 27.9% 16.2% 25.0%

Net Working Capital 1,365 1,502 1,649 2,171 1,894

% sales 36% 37% 40% 46% 37%

Use at least 5yrs. For any years you do

not have estimates for - or if you cannot
obtain estimates - use historical
average FCF growth rates, if
appropriate - rates have been steady
and no large changes are expected in
the future due to new products,
restructing, price changes, etc
 Forecast period
2013 2014 2015 2016 Input
5,528 5,970 6,448 6,964 WACC Calculation
8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Target Capital Structure (1)
Market Value of Debt: $1,200
-4,865 -5,254 -5,674 -6,128 Market Value of Equity: $2,000
88.0% 88.0% 88.0% 88.0% Total Financing: $3,200.00

663 716 774 836 Debt to Total Capitalization 37.5%

12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% Equity to Total Capitalization 62.5%

-193 -209 -226 -244 Cost of Equity

3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Risk-free rate (2) 2.0%
470 507 548 592 Market risk Premium (3) 7.0%
Levered Beta 1.30
-146 -157 -170 -183 Cost of Equity 11.1%

-332 -358 -387 -418

6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Cost of Debt
Cost of Debt (1) 6.0%
-152 -164 -177 -191 Taxes 31.0%
After Tax Cost of Debt 4.1%
34 37 40 43
182 228 253 279
3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% WACC (4) 8.5%

(1) Obtained from Bloomberg or Morning Star

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 (2) Yield on 10-year Treasury bond
0.85 0.78 0.72 0.67 (3) Typically 6% to 8%
155 179 183 185 (4) Can be obtained directly from Bloomberg

orecast period
2013 2014 2015 2016

3,428 3,702 3,998 4,318

62.0% 62.0% 62.0% 62.0%
-1,382 -1,493 -1,612 -1,741
25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

2,046 2,209 2,386 2,577

37% 37% 37% 37%
 Sensitivity Analysis
Output Perpetuity growth %
Enterprise value ### 4,258 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Present value of Free Cash Flow 786 6.5% 5,444 6,045 6,819
7.5% 4,408 4,788 5,251

WACC
Terminal Value 5,220 8.5% 3,693 3,950 4,255
Discount Factor 0.67 9.5% 3,169 3,353 3,566
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,472 10.5% 2,769 2,906 3,062
% of Enterprise Value 82%
Annual sales growth %
Enterprise value 4,258 ### 4,258 7.0% 7.5% 8.0%
Less: Total debt 1,253 10.0% 4,092 4,174 4,258

EBITDA %
Plus: Cash and Cash Equi. 328 11.0% 4,092 4,174 4,258
Net Debt 925 12.0% 4,092 4,174 4,258
13.0% 4,092 4,174 4,258
Implied Equity Value 3,333 14.0% 4,092 4,174 4,258
Outstanding shares 142
Implied Fair Value 23.42
Note: Must copy-->paste special-->past value for WACC in
Implied multiples
Enterprise Value 4,258
SALES 5,119

EBITDA 614
Implied EV/SALES 0.8x
Implied EV/EBITDA 6.9x
 Analysis
petuity growth %
3.5% 4.0%
7,850 9,293
5,830 6,575
4,620 5,067
3,815 4,108
3,240 3,445

al sales growth %
8.5% 9.0%
4,343 4,430
4,343 4,430
4,343 4,430
4,343 4,430
4,343 4,430

al-->past value for WACC in sensitivity analysis

Spirit Aerosystems
($ in millions, except per share)

Comparables Analysis Ratios may explain valuation differences between competitors

TGI MOG-A ESL SPR Comp Avg
Market Cap $2,700 $1,900 $1,800 $2,750
Forward PE 10.9x 11.1x 10.4x 9.0x 10.8x
ROA 5.80% 4.91% 5.14% 4.11% 5.28%
ROE 13.19% 10.90% 11.14% 10.44% 11.74%
Debt/Equity 72% 59% 68% 62% 66%
FCF (expected) $81 $184 $198 $182
P/FCF 33.3x 10.3x 9.1x 15.1x 17.6x

Implied 2012 Value

2013 EPS $ 2.20 Use 2013 EPS for a 2012 price target because you are applying average
Multiple 10.8x Assuming that average of peers is the target multiple. If stock deserves a
1 Year price target: $ 23.76

2013 FCF/share $ 1.28

Multiple 17.6x
1 Year price target: $ 22.44

Implied 2011 Value

2012 EPS $ 2.05
Multiple 10.8x
1 Year price target: $ 22.14

2012 FCF/share $ 0.64

Multiple 17.6x
1 Year price target: $ 11.31
 Find competitors on Bloomberg, Morningstar, or Yahoo Finance

t because you are applying average FORWARD multiple

e target multiple. If stock deserves a premium valuation relative to competitors, use a different multiple
Spirit Aerosystems
($ in millions, except per share)

Average of Valuation Methods

1 Year Price Target Which method is most appropriate and why?
DDM DCF PE Multiple P/FCF
Price Target: $22.23 $23.42 $23.76 $22.44

Average: $22.96
Current Price: $19.25
Implied Upside: 19.3% BUY

Buy threshold: 15%

Questions:
Can you justify the multiples?
What could cause the multiples to change?
Wht could cause earnings to change?
Consider showing a bull vs. base vs. bear case
These valuations show what happens in one year. What if the business hits an inflection point in 2014 or 2015? Which model w
int in 2014 or 2015? Which model will most accurately reflect that?