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WILLÈHAVEÈCONSEQUENCESÈFORÈAÈLONGÈTIMEÈ-ODELSÈOFÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈWEREÈFIRSTÈUSEDÈ
ASÈSIMPLEÈABSTRACTIONSÈOFÈSTANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈ4HEYÈWEREÈTHENÈADAPTEDÈTOÈSPECIFICÈMANAGE
MENTÈOBJECTIVESÈ.OWÈCHANGINGÈUSERÈNEEDSÈAREÈSHIFTINGÈTHEÈPREFERENCESÈOFÈFORESTÈPRACTICEÈ
FORÈFORESTÈMODELSÈFROMÈPUREÈTOÈMIXEDÈFORESTS ÈFROMÈSTANDÈTOÈINDIVIDUALÈTREE BASEDÈSILVICUL
TURALÈMEASURESÈANDÈFROMÈEVENÈAGEDÈTOÈUNEVENÈAGEDÈMANAGEMENTÈMETHODSÈ)NÈADDITION È
CHANGINGÈGROWTHÈCONDITIONSÈCALLÈFORÈEVENÈMOREÈCUSTOMISABLEÈMODELSÈ4REEÈMODELSÈTRYÈTOÈ
TRANSCENDÈ THEÈ LIMITATIONSÈ OFÈ EARLIERÈ FORESTÈ GROWTHÈ MODELLINGÈ APPROACHESÈ BYÈ PREDICTINGÈ
INDIVIDUALÈTREEÈGROWTHÈWITHÈRESPECTÈTOÈCOMPETITIONÈWITHÈSURROUNDINGÈNEIGHBOURS ÈTHEÈLOCALÈ
CANOPYÈSTRUCTUREÈANDÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITION ÈINSTEADÈOFÈDELIVERINGÈMEANÈSTANDÈVALUESÈ4HISÈ
REMARKABLEÈ SCIENTIFICÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ LEADSÈ TOÈ MOREÈ COMPLEXÈ MODELSÈ WITHÈ MOREÈ DETAILEDÈ
PREDICTIONSÈ 4OÈ FOCUSÈ ONÈ THEÈ NEEDSÈ OFÈ FORESTÈ PRACTICEÈ nÈ ESPECIALLYÈ INÈ THEÈ FIELDÈ OFÈ FORESTÈ
PLANNING È SILVICULTURALÈ PROGRAMMESÈ ANDÈ MULTICRITERIALÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ nÈ THEÈ FOLLOWINGÈ
ESSENTIALÈATTRIBUTESÈOFÈTREEÈMODELSÈAREÈPROPOSEDÈAÈCLEARÈPURPOSEÈSPECIFICATION ÈAÈREASON
ABLEÈACCURACYÈOFÈTHEÈPREDICTEDÈVALUES ÈANÈEASYÈINTEGRATIONÈINTOÈTHEÈENTERPRISEÈINFORMATIONÈ
FLOWÈANDÈCOMMUNICABILITYÈOFÈMODELÈRESULTSÈ!ÈCLEARÈDOCUMENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈMODELÈLIMITS ÈTHEÈ
COMPREHENSIBILITYÈOFÈTHEÈSIMULATIONÈPROCESSÈANDÈUSER FRIENDLYÈHANDLINGÈIMPROVEÈTHEÈTRUST
WORTHINESSÈOFÈTHEÈMODELSÈ!ÈSUCCESSFULÈEVOLUTIONÈOFÈTREEÈMODELSÈWILLÈAVOIDÈUSINGÈGROWTHÈ
SIMULATORSÈ ASÈ ALL PURPOSEÈ TOOLS È BUTÈ ENSUREÈ THEÈ PARTICIPATIVEÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ PURPOSE
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È
#OMPATIBILITY

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lebkc[Wh[YWbYkbWj[Z\hecceh[XWi_YlWh_WXb[i\eh[nWcfb["XWiWbWh[W"^[_]^j
WdZ \ehc \WYjeh hWj^[h j^Wd ceZ[bb[Z _dZ[f[dZ[djbo$ Ceh[el[h" _\ W Yecfei#
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cWj[i$J^[i[fh_dY_fb[i^Wl[X[[d\kdZWc[djWb_d\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bb_d]_d;k#
hef[i_dY[j^[\_hijiY_[dj_\_YWbboXWi[Zo_[bZjWXb[i[c[h][Z_dj^[bWj['-&&iWdZ
\eh ikXi[gk[dj cWj^[cWj_YWb ceZ[bi$ E\j[d" ijWdZ b[l[b [ij_cWj[i e\ XWiWb Wh[W"
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ceZ[biWh[YecfWj_Xb[\hec_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[b[l[bj^hek]^lWh_ekiW]]h[]Wj_edije
j^[ijWdZb[l[b"fhel_Z_d]Yedi_ij[dj[ij_cWj[ie\jh[[WdZijWdZfhef[hj_[i"j^[o
Wh[iW_Zje\ehcWd_dj[]hWj[Zioij[ce\\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bi:Wd_[biWdZ8kh#
a^Whj'/..$IkY^Wioij[cfhel_Z[i]eeZeffehjkd_j_[ijeYecfWh[cWdW][c[dj
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if[Y_WblWh_Wj_ede\j^_ij^[c[[$]$IeWh[i[jWb$'//+$:_\\[h[dY[ieYYkhWdZfei#
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9ecfWj_X_b_joX[jm[[dceZ[bie\j[db[WZijej^[i[b[Yj_ede\ded#b_d[WhceZ#
[b \ehci WdZ WdWboj_YWbbo iebl[Z YedZ_j_edi \eh ceZ[b fWhWc[j[hi$ J^_i c[Wdi
j^Wj ioij[ci e\ YecfWj_Xb[ ceZ[bi Wh[ ceh[ Yecfb[n j^Wd _dZ[f[dZ[dj ceZ#
[bi\ehZ_\\[h[djY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$?dj^[bWjj[hYWi["ceZ[biWh[dejckjkWbboYedZ_#
j_ed[ZWdZZedejd[Y[iiWh_boo_[bZWbe]_YWbioij[ce\fh[Z_Yj_ed[gkWj_edi\eh
j^[f^[dec[dede\_dj[h[ij$
7dej^[hWif[Yje\YecfWj_X_b_jo_ij^[h[b_WX_b_joe\h[WiedWXb[jhWdi\ehcWj_edi
e\ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edi$CWdo_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[biki[ijWj_Y_dij[WZe\ZodWc#
_YceZ[bYecfed[djije\eh[YWij"\eh[nWcfb["ijWdZ^[_]^jehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\
YhemdXWi["Yhemdm_Zj^ehXhWdY^Z_Wc[j[h$IjWj_YceZ[bWffheWY^[iik\\[hj^[
Z_iWZlWdjW][j^Wjh[WiedWXb[[ij_cWj[iWjjmefe_dji_dj_c[\ehj^[iWc[eX`[Yj
È 2ELIABILITY '+/

ZedejWkjecWj_YWbbob[WZjeWh[WiedWXb[[ij_cWj[e\Y^Wd][eh]hemj^$?dj^[WX#
i[dY[e\Wffhefh_Wj[j_c[i[h_[iZWjW"ikY^ceZ[bii^ekbZX[YWb_XhWj[ZXWi[Zed
ik_jWXb[Y^hedei[gk[dY[i"if[Y_\o_d][njhWfebWj_edXekdZWh_[i_dj^[_cfb[c[d#
jWj_edfheY[iije[dikh[X_ebe]_YWbboh[WiedWXb[[ij_cWj[i$
<_dWbbo" YecfWj_X_b_jo _i e\j[d W fheXb[c \eh \eh[ij ceZ[bi j^Wj _dYbkZ[ i_p[
YbWiiZ_ijh_Xkj_edehi_c_bWh_d\ehcWj_ed$J^_icWoX[Wbb[l_Wj[Z_dj^[YedijhkY#
j_edj^hek]^j^[ki[e\fWhWc[j[hh[Yel[hoj[Y^d_gk[i"m^_Y^][d[hWbboW_cje[d#
ikh[j^Wjj^[ikce\XWiWbWh[Wfh[Z_Yj_edi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i[gkWbiijWdZXWiWb
Wh[W[$]$>o_daWdZCei[h'/.)$
?d\ehcWj_ededi_p[YbWiiZ_ijh_Xkj_ed_ifWhj_YkbWhbolWbkWXb[m^[d[lWbkWj_d]
i_bl_YkbjkhWbWbj[hdWj_l[i"Xkje\j[dj^[kikWb]eeZd[ii#e\#\_jj[ijiWh[dejWffhe#
fh_Wj[[$]$H[odebZi[jWb$'/..1LWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-$Ed[fheXb[c_ij^[
bWYae\Wif[Y_\_[Zj^[eh[j_YWbWbj[hdWj_l[jej[ijW]W_dij"_$[$j^[h[_ideYb[Whdkbb#
^ofej^[i_i$ 7dej^[h fheXb[c _i j^Wj ijWdZWhZ j[iji Wjjh_Xkj[ [gkWb _cfehjWdY[
je[hhehi_dZ_\\[h[dji_p[YbWii[i"\eh[nWcfb[[hhehi\ehjh[[im_j^WZ_Wc[j[he\
'&YcWh[hWj[Z[gkWbbojej^ei[\ehjh[[ie\*&YcWbj^ek]^j^[bWjj[h_iceh[i[#
h_eki\hecW\eh[ijhof[hif[Yj_l[$J^_i^WiX[[dWbb[l_Wj[Zj^hek]^j^[YedijhkY#
j_ede\Wbj[hdWj_l[j[ijiif[Y_\_YWbbo\eh\eh[ijhofkhfei[i[$]$H[odebZi[jWb$'/..1
Iaeli]WWhZ'//-W1PkYY^_d_[jWb$(&&'$Iec[e\j^[i[Wh[XWi[ZedWd[hheh#_dZ[n
j^WjX[jj[hh[\b[Yjij^[\eh[ijho_cfehjWdY[e\Z_\\[h[dji_p[YbWii[i$

È
2ELIABILITY

J^[ eX`[Yj_l[ e\ ceZ[b [lWbkWj_ed _i je Wii[ii j^[ h[b_WX_b_jo e\ fh[Z_Yj_edi
\hec j^[ ceZ[b WdZ" ceh[ ][d[hWbbo" j^[ ceZ[bÉi fej[dj_Wb \eh _ji _dj[dZ[Z ki[$
J^[Wii[iic[dji^ekbZZ[f[dZedceZ[bb_d]ehki[heX`[Yj_l[iWdZX[XWi[Zed
if[Y_\_[Zh[gk_h[c[djie\WYYkhWYoWdZfh[Y_i_ed$<eh\eh[ijceZ[bi"ikY^if[Y#
_\_YWj_ediWh[e\j[dbWYa_d]ehgk_j[lW]k[$J^_icWoX[Zk[jej^[Yecfb[n_joe\
j^[_iik[ehe\\eh[ij[Yeioij[ci"Xkjceijb_a[boj^[jhWZ_j_ede\WfhW]cWj_YWf#
fheWY^jeceZ[bb_d]WdZceZ[bki[WbiefbWoiWi_]d_\_YWdjheb[m^[di[jj_d]j^[
W][dZW$J^[kbj_cWj[Wii[iic[dje\ceZ[bh[b_WX_b_joh[ijim_j^j^[[dZ#ki[h"ie
j^[ [dZ#ki[h i^ekbZ ^[bf if[Y_\o WYYkhWYo WdZ ej^[h h[gk_h[c[dji [l[d Wj Wd
[WhboijW][e\ceZ[bYedijhkYj_ed$7bj^ek]^ikY^if[Y_\_YWj_edicWoX[^WhZje
gkWdj_\o_dWdef[hWj_edWbYedj[nj"j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[e\deif[Y_\_YWj_edi_i][d[hWbbo
mehi[WdZcWob[WZjekdWYY[fjWXb[ceZ[biehmWij[e\ceZ[bb_d][\\ehji$
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed e\ ceZ[b#_dj[hdWb fhef[hj_[i _i cW_dbo W cWjj[he\ iY_[dj_\_Y
h[i[WhY^"]k_Z[ZfWhj_WbboXocWdW][h_WbWdZej^[hfhWYj_YWbYedi_Z[hWj_edi$J^[
[lWbkWj_ede\ceZ[b#[nj[hdWbfhef[hj_[i_i^_]^boZ[f[dZ[djedceZ[bZeYkc[d#
jWj_ed"Xkj[l[djkWbboh[ijim_j^j^[[dZ#ki[h$<hecWd[dZ#ki[hf[hif[Yj_l[ceZ#
[bij^WjWh[[Wi_boWZ`kij[Zehh[YWb_XhWj[Zm_bb][d[hWbboi[[cceh[WjjhWYj_l[WdZ
h[b_WXb[j^WdÈXbWYaXenÉceZ[bi$
<eh cWdW][c[dj#eh_[dj[Z \eh[ij ceZ[bi" ceZ[b YedijhkYj_ed _i e\j[d Z_#
lehY[Z\hecef[hWj_edWb\eh[ijho$J^_iijh[ii[ij^[d[[Z\eh[\\_Y_[djYecckd_YW#
j_edX[jm[[diY_[dY[WdZ\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y["je[dikh[^_]^WdZh[b[lWdjceZ[bb_d]
ijWdZWhZiWdZm[bb#jWh][j[Zki[e\h[i[WhY^]hWdji$J^[Yecfb[n_joe\_dZ_l_ZkWb
',& #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi

jh[[ceZ[bi\khj^[hijh[ii[ij^[d[[Z\ehc[djWbWdZej^[h_dj[hWYj_ediX[jm[[d
ceZ[bb[hWdZ[dZ#ki[h$

È
#ONCLUSION
:kh_d]h[Y[djo[Whij^[[lWbkWj_ede\\eh[ijceZ[bi^Wih[Y[_l[ZckY^Wjj[d#
j_ed[$]$Iaeli]WWhZ'//-X1Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&("WdZj^[gk[ij_ed^Wi[c[h][Z
e\m^[j^[hj^[h[_iceh[jeX[iW_Z$
Ed[Wh]kc[djjeZeceh[_ij^Wjj^[j[Y^d_YWb_j_[i"_$[$Z[l[befc[djWdZj[iji
e\c[j^eZiWdZYh_j[h_W"Wh[WYedj_dkekiboed]e_d]fheY[ii_dWYedijWdjboZ[#
l[bef_d]\_[bZe\h[i[WhY^$J^_iZ[f[dZicW_dboedZ[l[befc[dji_dej^[hXhWdY^#
[ie\iY_[dY[be]_Y"ijWj_ij_Yi"Yecfkj[hj[Y^debe]o"[jY$"Xkjj^[h[Wh[Wbie[nWc#
fb[i e\ ceh[ if[Y_\_Y \eh[ijho WffheWY^[i$ Iec[ e\ j^[i[ ^Wl[ X[[d c[dj_ed[Z
_dj^_iY^Wfj[h$7dej^[hWh]kc[dj_ij^Wj\eh[ijceZ[biZ[l[bef$<ebbem_d]iec[
Z[YWZ[ie\YekhW][ekiWjj[cfji"cWdo\W_bkh[iWdZiec[\[m[nWcfb[ie\ikYY[ii"
\eh[ijceZ[bb_d]\_dWbboi[[cijeX[cel_d]ikYY[ii\kbbo_dj^[Z_h[Yj_ede\_dZ_#
l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[bi$?dcWdofWhjie\j^[mehbZ"j^_iYe_dY_Z[im_j^Yedj[cfehWho
Z[l[befc[dji_di_bl_Ykbjkh[WdZ\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj"W_c_d]\ehceh[Yecfb[n"
kd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z#if[Y_[i\eh[ijjof[ij^WjX[jj[h\kb\_bj^[Z[cWdZie\ikijW_d#
WXb[\eh[ijho$
?dYedYbki_ed"m[X[b_[l[j^Wjceh[Yecfh[^[di_l[[lWbkWj_edie\ikijW_dWX_b#
_joWh[WdkfYec_d]_iik["XkjWjj^_iijW][_j_i^WhZjej^_dae\Wkd_\o_d][lWb#
kWj_edYedY[fj\ehj^_ifkhfei[$M_j^if[Y_\_Yh[\[h[dY[je_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ#
[bij^[h[i[[cijeX[Wdkh][djd[[ZjeWZZh[iiceZ[bZ_c[di_edWb_jo_dh[bWj_ed
jefh[Z_Yj_edWYYkhWYoWdZje_Z[dj_\oehZ[l[befh[b[lWdjj[iji\ehj^[h[fh[i[dj#
Wj_l[d[iie\ifWj_WbZ_c[di_edi_dikY^ceZ[bi$M[[dl_iW][j^Wjj^[i[jef_Yim_bb
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