Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3USTAINABLEÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENT
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
3USTAINABLEÈ&OREST
-ANAGEMENT
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
M_j^''&<_]kh[i")&_dYebeh"WdZ**JWXb[i
0ROFÈ$IPL
)NGÈ$RÈ(UBERTÈ(ASENAUER
?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^
:[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i
8EAKKd_l[hi_joe\DWjkhWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_[dY[i
F[j[h@ehZWdIjh$.(
7#''/&L_[ddW
7kijh_W
,IBRARYÈOFÈ#ONGRESSÈ#ONTROLÈ.UMBERÈ
4HISÈ WORKÈ ISÈ SUBJECTÈ TOÈ COPYRIGHTÈ !LLÈ RIGHTSÈ AREÈ RESERVEDÈ WHETHERÈ THEÈ WHOLEÈ ORÈ PARTÈ OFÈ THEÈ MATERIALÈ ISÈ
CONCERNEDÈSPECIlCALLYÈTHEÈRIGHTSÈOFÈTRANSLATIONÈREPRINTINGÈREUSEÈOFÈILLUSTRATIONSÈRECITATIONÈBROADCASTINGÈ
REPRODUCTIONÈONÈMICROlLMÈORÈINÈANYÈOTHERÈWAYÈANDÈSTORAGEÈINÈDATAÈBANKSÈ$UPLICATIONÈOFÈTHISÈPUBLICATIONÈORÈÈ
PARTSÈTHEREOFÈISÈPERMITTEDÈONLYÈUNDERÈTHEÈPROVISIONSÈOFÈTHEÈ'ERMANÈ#OPYRIGHTÈ,AWÈOFÈ3EPTEMBERÈÈÈINÈÈ
ITSÈCURRENTÈVERSIONÈANDÈPERMISSIONÈFORÈUSEÈMUSTÈALWAYSÈBEÈOBTAINEDÈFROMÈ3PRINGER
6ERLAGÈ6IOLATIONSÈAREÈ
LIABLEÈFORÈPROSECUTIONÈUNDERÈTHEÈ'ERMANÈ#OPYRIGHTÈ,AW
SPRINGERONLINECOM
¹È3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ(EIDELBERGÈÈ
0RINTEDÈINÈ'ERMANY
%DITORÈ$RÈ$IETERÈ#ZESCHLIKÈ(EIDELBERG
$ESKÈ%DITORÈ!NETTEÈ,INDQVISTÈ(EIDELBERG
0RODUCTIONÈ0ROÈ%DITÈ'MB(È(EIDELBERG
4YPESETTINGÈ3ATZ
$RUCK
3ERVICEÈ,EIMEN
#OVERÈDESINGÈ$ESIGNÈÈ0RODUCTIONÈ(EIDELBERG
0RINTEDÈONÈACID
FREEÈPAPERÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈ2EÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈ
02%&!#% L
0REFACEÈANDÈ!CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
=_l[dj^[Y^Wd][_di_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[dj\hecX[_d]cW_dboYb[Wh#Ykj#Zh_l[d
jeWdkd[l[d#W][Zc_n[ZicWbb#iYWb[WdZ%eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[#Zh_l[d\eh[ijcWd#
W][c[djioij[c"[n_ij_d]o_[bZjWXb[im_bbX[Yec[_dYh[Wi_d]bokdh[b_WXb[$7iWfe#
j[dj_WbWbj[hdWj_l["jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z_dehZ[hje\eh[YWij
j^[]hemj^e\[WY^jh[[m_j^_dWijWdZ_dZ[f[dZ[dje\jh[[W]["if[Y_[ic_njkh[
WdZ i_bl_YkbjkhWb cWdW][c[dj" Wbbem_d] _dYh[Wi[Z \b[n_X_b_jo" m^_Y^ _i d[Y[iiWho
\ehceZ[b_d]ikY^cWdW][Z\eh[iji$
J^[ meha fh[i[dj[Z _d j^_i Xeea ikccWh_p[i W `e_dj [\\ehj Wced] ;khef[#
Wdjh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d][nf[hji"\eh[ijfeb_YoZ[Y_i_ed#cWa[hiWdZ\eh[ijYec#
fWd_[ije\khj^[h[d^WdY[ceZ[b_d]j^[eh_[iWdZje_dl[ij_]Wj[fheXb[c#iebl_d]
c[j^eZi\ehi_bl_YkbjkhWbZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]$<hec<[XhkWho(&&'je@WdkWho(&&*"
W]hekfe\*+_dZ_l_ZkWbimeha[Zm_j^_dj^[?JCYediehj_kc?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[
=hemj^ CeZ[bi \eh <eh[ij CWdW][c[dj" Wd ;K#\kdZ[Z [\\ehj je [d^WdY[ WdZ
fhecej[jh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]j^[eh_[im_j^_d;khef[$<ehekhmeha"WdkcX[he\
jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bim[h[i[b[Yj[Z$7\j[h[nj[dZ_d]j^[ceZ[biWdZh[i[WhY^]Wfi
h[bWj[Z je jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[b_d] j^[eho 9^Wfi$'Ä." j^[ \ebbem_d] Wffb_YWj_ed
[nWcfb[i9^Wfi$/Ä'-m[h[i[b[Yj[ZXoekhYecfWdoh[fh[i[djWj_l[ijeZ[ced#
ijhWj[j^[fheXb[c#iebl_d]fej[dj_Wb0
'$ H[][d[hWj_ed_dkd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z#if[Y_[iijWdZi$
($ J_cX[h#^Whl[ij_d]iY[dWh_ei$
)$ ?dYehfehWj_ede\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi_d_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci$
*$ Ki_d]jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biX[oedZj^[YWb_XhWj_edWh[W$
+$ 7ii_ij_d]\eh[ijfeb_YoZ[Y_i_ed#cWa[hi$
,$ Jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWiWZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[cYecfed[dj$
-$ Efj_c_p_d]YehafheZkYj_ed_diekj^[hd;khef[$
.$ 9edl[hj_d][l[d#W][Zfkh[ijWdZi_djekd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi$
/$ CeZ[b_d]Yeff_Y[\eh[iji_d=h[[Y[$
CWdo_dZ_l_ZkWbiYedjh_Xkj[Zjej^[ikYY[iie\ekhmeha$M[Wh[l[ho]hWj[#
\kbjeekh'(YecfWdoh[fh[i[djWj_l[i0J^ecWi8YacWdd"=[hcWdo1C_]k[bJ[b#
[i 8hWdYe" Fehjk]Wb1 Cehj[d ;bXWYa @eh][di[d" :[dcWha1 =[h^WhZ <_iY^[h" =[h#
cWdo1@ei[\=WiY^"7kijh_W1Ij[f^Wd=Z"7kijh_W1?lWd>[h_Y^"IbelWa_W1J^[eZ#
L? 0REFACE
(UBERTÈ(ASENAUER
Del[cX[h(&&+
#/.4%.43 L??
#ONTENTS
FWhj?
Jef_YiH[bWj[Zje=[d[hWbCeZ[b_d]?iik[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '
9^Wfj[h'
9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h
'$( Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ *
'$) =[d[hWbIjhkYjkh[e\WJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +
'$)$' ?dYh[c[dj<kdYj_edi $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ,
'$)$( 9ecf[j_j_ed?dZ_Y[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -
'$)$) 9hemdCeZ[bi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ /
'$)$* CehjWb_joCeZ[bi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ /
'$)$+ H[][d[hWj_edCeZ[bi $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '&
'$* :WjWD[[Z[Z\eh9Wb_XhWj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi$$$$$$$$$ ''
'$*$' J^[>[kh_ij_YJhWdi\ehcWj_ede\?dfkj:WjW$$$$$$$$$$$$ '(
'$+ IkccWhoWdZ9edYbki_ed $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ')
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '*
9^Wfj[h(
;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '/
AedijWdj_dledJ[k\\[b"I[XWij_Wd>[_d"CWh_`WdAejWh"
;c_b_WF_djeFh[k^ib[h"@WdWFkkcWbW_d[d"F[j[hM[_d\khj[h
($)$( 9^Wd]_d]Jh[Wjc[dj$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ()
($)$) 9^Wd][\hec;l[d#7][ZjeKd[l[d#7][Z
CWdW][c[djC[j^eZi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ()
($)$* 9^Wd]_d]=hemj^9edZ_j_edi $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (*
($* Fkhfei[ie\CeZ[hdJh[[CeZ[bi $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (+
($*$' Jh[[CeZ[bi_d<eh[ijCWdW][c[djFbWdd_d]$$$$$$$$$$$$ (,
($*$( Bed]#J[hcI_bl_YkbjkhWbFheZkYj_edFhe]hWcc[i$$$$$$$$$ (.
($*$) :[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[ci $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (/
($*$* DWjkhWbH[][d[hWj_ed$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (/
($*$+ 9eff_Y[CWdW][c[djWdZ9ehaFheZkYj_ed$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )&
($+ H[gk_h[Z7jjh_Xkj[i"B_c_jiWdZKdiebl[ZFheXb[ci
e\Jh[[CeZ[bi $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )'
($+$' 9b[WhFkhfei[If[Y_\_YWj_ed $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )(
($+$( H[WiedWXb[7YYkhWYoe\Fh[Z_Yj_edLWbk[
WdZJhkijmehj^_d[ii$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )(
($+$) ?dj[]hWj_ed?dje?d\ehcWj_ed<bem_d<eh[ijho$$$$$$$$$$$ )(
($+$* 9ecckd_YWX_b_joe\CeZ[bH[ikbji$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ))
($+$+ Ki[h<h_[dZb_d[iiWdZ:eYkc[djWj_ede\I_ckbWj_edFheY[ii$$$ ))
($, 9edYbki_ed$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )*
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )+
9^Wfj[h)
IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )/
>WdiFh[jpiY^"F[j[h8_X[h"@Wd:khiao"AbWkiled=WZem"
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h"=[hWbZAdZb[h"=[eh]A[da";Z]WhAkXb_d"
@h][dDW][b"J_ceFkaaWbW"@[diF[j[hIaeli]WWhZ"
HW_d[hIeZja[">kX[hjIj[hXW
)$+$+ Fhe]hWc9edjheb$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ *+
)$+$, Ekjfkj$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ */
)$+$- IkX#CeZ[bie\j^[=hemj^I_ckbWjeh $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ */
)$+$. 7ZZ_j_edWb7b]eh_j^ci$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ */
)$+$/ CeZ[bLWb_ZWj_ed$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ */
)$+$'& Ie\jmWh[WdZ>WhZmWh[$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +&
)$, 9h_j[h_W\ehCeZ[b;lWbkWj_ed $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +&
)$,$' ;lWbkWj_ede\CeZ[b7ffheWY^$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +&
)$,$( LWb_ZWj_ede\j^[=hemj^CeZ[b $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +'
)$,$) ;lWbkWj_ede\j^[Ie\jmWh[$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +(
)$- H[i[WhY^WdZ:[l[befc[djD[[Zi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +(
)$-$' :WjWXWi[\ehCeZ[bFWhWc[j[h_pWj_edWdZCeZ[bLWb_ZWj_ed $$$ +)
)$-$( <khj^[h:[l[befc[dje\=hemj^CeZ[bi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +)
)$-$) Ie\jmWh[:[l[befc[dj $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +*
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +*
9^Wfj[h*
:[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ +/
*$' J^[I_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c8M?DFhe$$$$$$$ +/
@h][dDW][b"CWjj^_WiIY^c_Zj
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ,(
*$( J^[Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bCEI;I)$&$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ,*
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h"=[eh]A_dZ[hcWdd"F[jhWIj[_dc[jp
*$)$, Ekjfkj$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -)
*$)$- =hemj^CeZ[b $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -*
*$)$. 7ZZ_j_edWb7b]eh_j^ci$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -+
*$)$/ CeZ[bFh[Y_i_ed$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -,
*$)$'& Ie\jmWh[WdZ>WhZmWh[$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -,
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ -,
9^Wfj[h+
CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ /)
@Wh_C__dW"AWbb[;[h_a_d[d">kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h
9^Wfj[h,
>Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i\ehFh[Z_Yj_d]9ecc[hY_Wb
J_cX[h7iiehjc[dji$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '''
>kX[hjIj[hXW"Ied`WLeif[hd_a"?d]h_ZIZ[hX[h]^"
J^ecWiB[Z[hcWdd
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '()
9^Wfj[h-
7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]_d:[Y_i_ed
Ikffehj\ehIkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ')'
>WdiFh[jpiY^">[_dpKjiY^_]"HW_d[hC$IeZja[
9^Wfj[h.
;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '+'
C$IY^c_Zj"@$DW][b"@$F$Iaeli]WWhZ
FWhj??
$EMONSTRATINGÈTHEÈ0ROBLEM
3OLVINGÈ0OTENTIALÈOFÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELSÈÈÈ
9^Wfj[h/
CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji$$ ',-
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h"=[eh]A_dZ[hcWdd
9^Wfj[h'&
;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[iWdZJ^[_h?cfWYjed9ecc[hY_Wb
J_cX[hIkffboKi_d]Wd?dZ_l_ZkWb#Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[b
WdZIY[dWh_e7dWboi_i $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ '/+
J^ecWiB[Z[hcWdd">kX[hjIj[hXW
9^Wfj[h''
7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]"
?dj[]hWj_d]W<eh[ij=hemj^I_ckbWjeh"<kppo#?d\[h[dY[J[Y^d_gk[i
WdZW>[kh_ij_YEfj_c_iWj_ed7ffheWY^$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (''
HW_d[hC$IeZja[">[_dpKjiY^_]">WdiFh[jpiY^
9^Wfj[h'(
J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]$$$$$$$$$$$ ()-
CWjj^_WiIY^c_Zj"J^ecWi8YacWdd"@h][dDW][b
'($+$( IY[dWh_eI_ckbWj_edi7ffbo_d]:_\\[h[djI_bl_YkbjkhWb
Jh[Wjc[dji$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (+&
'($+$) <khj^[h:[iYh_fj_ed\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWbKd_ji
eh7doKi[h#:[\_d[ZIjhWj_\_YWj_ede\j^[<eh[ij:_ijh_Yj$$$$$ (+)
'($+$* H[][d[hWj_edIjWjki $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (++
'($, IkccWho $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (+-
H[\[h[dY[i$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (,&
9^Wfj[h')
J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_iWdZCkbj_#EX`[Yj_l[
Efj_c_iWj_ed_d<eh[ijFbWdd_d] $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (,)
J_ceFkaaWbW
9^Wfj[h'*
CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (.+
DkdeZ[7bc[_ZWH_X[_he"F[j[hIkhel"
Ùd][be9WhlWb^eEb_l[_hW
9^Wfj[h'+
?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )'+
CWh[a<WXh_aW"@|dàkhia
9^Wfj[h',
9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha8Wi[Z
edI_bl_YkbjkhWbIY[dWh_eCeZ[bb_d] $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )*)
7dZh[Wi8hkdd[h"AWjh_d[>W^d"F[j[h8_X[h"
@[diF[j[hIaeli]WWhZ
9^Wfj[h'-
CeZ[b_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$)-)
=h[]eh9^Wjp_f^_b_ff_Z_i"=Wlh__bIfohe]bek
IkX`[Yj?dZ[n$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ )/-
0!24È) '
4OPICSÈ2ELATEDÈTOÈ'ENERALÈ
-ODELINGÈ)SSUES
9^Wfj[h'
9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d] Ä
9^Wfj[h(
;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji Ä
9^Wfj[h)
IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi Ä
9^Wfj[h*
:[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z Ä
9^Wfj[h+
CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed Ä
9^Wfj[h,
>Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i\ehFh[Z_Yj_d]
9ecc[hY_WbJ_cX[h7iiehjc[dji Ä
9^Wfj[h-
7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]_d:[Y_i_edIkffehj
\ehIkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj Ä
9^Wfj[h.
;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi Ä
#(!04%2È )
#ONCEPTSÈ7ITHINÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELING
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h
!BSTRACTÈ 'IVENÈ THEÈ CHANGEÈ INÈ SILVICULTURALÈ MANAGEMENTÈ FROMÈ BEINGÈ MAINLYÈ CLEARCUT
DRIVENÈ TOÈ ANÈ UNEVEN
AGEDÈ MIXEDÈ SMALL
SCALEÈ ANDORÈ INDIVIDUALÈ TREE
DRIVENÈ FORESTÈ MAN
AGEMENTÈ SYSTEMÈ EXISTINGÈ YIELDÈ TABLESÈ WILLÈ BECOMEÈ INCREASINGLYÈ UNRELIABLEÈ ASÈ THEÈ MAINÈ
FORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈTOOLÈTOÈENSUREÈSUSTAINABLEÈHARVESTINGÈ!SÈAÈPOTENTIALÈALTERNATIVEÈTREEÈ
GROWTHÈMODELSÈHAVEÈBEENÈDEVELOPEDÈTOÈFORECASTÈTHEÈGROWTHÈOFÈEACHÈTREEÈWITHINÈAÈSTANDÈ
INDEPENDENTÈOFÈTREEÈAGEÈSPECIESÈMIXTUREÈANDÈSILVICULTURALÈMANAGEMENTÈOPTIONÈ4HISÈALLOWSÈ
THEÈ FLEXIBILITYÈ NEEDEDÈ FORÈ MANAGINGÈ UNEVEN
AGEDÈ MIXEDÈ SPECIESÈ FORESTSÈ 4HEÈ PURPOSEÈ OFÈ
THISÈCHAPTERÈISÈTOÈINTRODUCEÈTHEÈCONCEPTUALÈDIFFERENCESÈASÈTHEYÈAREÈCURRENTLYÈIMPLEMENTEDÈ
WITHINÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELS
)NTRODUCTION
<eh[ij _dl[djeh_[i Wii[ii j^[ Ykhh[dj \eh[ij YedZ_j_edi [_j^[h Xo _dZ_l_ZkWb
ijWdZ[dkc[hWj_edehXoWhWdZecfe_djiWcfb_d]fheY[Zkh[ki_d]f[hcWd[djeh
j[cfehWho_dl[djehofbeji$J^_i_d\ehcWj_ed_dYecX_dWj_edm_j^\eh[ij]hemj^
ceZ[bi_i_cfehjWdjje\eh[YWij\kjkh[ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj[$]$lebkc[_dYh[c[dj
_dehZ[hjeWle_Zel[hYkjj_d]WdZj^[h[Xo[dikh[ikijW_dWXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$
JhWZ_j_edWbbo"o_[bZjWXb[i^Wl[X[[dki[Zjefh[Z_Yj\kjkh[\eh[ijijWdZZ[l[b#
efc[dj$:[f[dZ_d]edi_j[YedZ_j_ediikY^jWXb[i\eh[YWijc[WdijWdZZ[l[bef#
c[dj c[Wd Z_Wc[j[h Wj Xh[Wij ^[_]^j" jh[[ ^[_]^j WdZ j^[ ijeYa_d] XWiWb Wh#
[W"lebkc[WdZj^[ij[cdkcX[hf[h^[YjWh[\ehfkh[[l[d#W][Z\eh[iji$:_\\[h#
[dji_j[YedZ_j_ediWh[^WdZb[ZXoki_d]c[WdZec_dWdjjh[[^[_]^jWiWd[ij_#
cWj[e\i_j[gkWb_jo$9edY[fjkWbbo"o_[bZjWXb[iWh[XWi[ZedWÆh[\[h[dY[ijWdZÇ\eh
[WY^if[Y_[iWdZi_j[_dZ[n$J^[i_j[_dZ[n"Z[\_d[ZWij^[c[WdjejWb^[_]^jWj#
jW_d[ZWjWfWhj_YkbWhW]["_iki[ZjeWii_]d[WY^\eh[ijjeW\kbboijeYa[ZÆh[\[h#
[dY[ijWdZÇe\W]_l[do_[bZjWXb[$O_[bZjWXb[i^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z\ehWdkcX[h
e\jh[[if[Y_[iWdZh[]_ediWYheii;khef[i[[=kjj[dX[h]'./,1M_[Z[cWdd'/*/1
7iicWddWdZ<hWdp'/,)18hWZb[o[jWb$'/,,1CWhiY^Wbb'/-+1IY^eX[h'/-+1[jY$
[#cW_b0^kX[hj$^Wi[dWk[h6Xeak$WY$Wj
:[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i"?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"8EAKKd_l[hi_jo
e\ DWjkhWb H[iekhY[i WdZ7ffb_[Z B_\[ IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW" F[j[h#@ehZWd#IjhW[ .(" ''/&L_[ddW"
7kijh_W
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
* #(!04%2È 9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]
WdZiec[e\j^[i[o_[bZjWXb[i[$]$CWhiY^Wbb'/-+Wiikc[Wjh[Wjc[dj\hecX[#
bemehWbbemj^[i[b[Yj_ede\Wb_c_j[ZdkcX[he\j^_dd_d]jh[Wjc[dji[$]$B[c#
XYa[[jWb$'/-+$
O_[bZjWXb[ief[hWj[Wjj^[ijWdZb[l[bWdZj^[h[\eh[edboijWdZb[l[b_d\ehcW#
j_ed_ifhel_Z[Z$J^kiWd_cfehjWdjh[ijh_Yj_ed_ij^WjYedY[fjkWbboj^[oWh[edbo
Wffb_YWXb[je[l[d#W][Z"fkh[\eh[iji$?\j^[oWh[ki[Zm_j^_dc_n[Z\eh[iji"j^[[n#
_ij_d]if[Y_[ic_njkh[_iYedY[fjkWbboifb_j_djefkh[\eh[iji"m^_Y^_]deh[iYec#
f[j_j_ed[\\[YjiWced]if[Y_[i$D[njj^[Æh[\[h[dY[ijWdZÇ\eh[WY^if[Y_[im_j^#
_dikY^Wc_n[Z\eh[ij_ii[b[Yj[ZWdZj^[lWbk[ijWa[d\hecj^[o_[bZjWXb[iWh[
m[_]^j[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[XWiWbWh[Wfhefehj_edXoif[Y_[i_dehZ[hje\eh[YWijj^[
c_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZZ[l[befc[dj<_]$'$'$
È
4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELS
M_j^ j^[ i^_\j \hec [l[d#W][Z fkh[ \eh[iji jemWhZ kd[l[d#W][Z WdZ c_n[Z
if[Y_[icWdW][Z\eh[ijid[m\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biWh[d[[Z[Zje[dikh[ikijW_d#
WXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$Jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWh[Yedi_Z[h[ZWfej[dj_WbWbj[hdW#
&IGÈÈ!ÈTYPICALÈEVEN
AGEDÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈFORESTÈMANAGEDÈUSINGÈAÈCLEARCUTÈSYSTEMÈLEFT È
VSÈANÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈSPECIESÈFORESTÈWITHÈSELECTIVEÈCUTTINGSÈRIGHT È)FÈNOÈTHINNINGÈORÈONLYÈ
THINNINGÈFROMÈBELOWÈISÈAPPLIEDÈTHEÈFORESTÈTOÈTHEÈLEFTÈWOULDÈBEÈAÈTYPICALÈSTANDÈFORÈWHICHÈAÈYIELDÈ
TABLEÈWOULDÈBEÈTHEÈAPPROPRIATEÈESTIMATORÈOFÈSTANDÈVOLUMEÈINCREMENTÈ(OWEVERÈIFÈWEÈHAVEÈAÈ
STANDÈSITUATIONÈSUCHÈASÈGIVENÈTOÈTHEÈRIGHTÈYIELDÈTABLESÈBECOMEÈUNRELIABLEÈBECAUSEÈAÈMOREÈFLEX
IBLEÈFORESTÈPROJECTIONÈSYSTEMÈISÈREQUIRED
È 'ENERALÈ3TRUCTUREÈOFÈAÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODEL +
j_l[X[YWki[YedY[fjkWbboj^[ofh[Z_Yjj^[Z[l[befc[dje\[WY^jh[[m_j^_dW\eh#
[ij$J^[b[l[be\h[iebkj_ed_ij^[jh[[m_j^_jiif[Y_\_YYecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_edWdZ
j^_iWbbemij^[h[gk_h[Z\b[n_X_b_jo_d\eh[YWij_d]jh[[]hemj^h[]WhZb[iie\if[Y_[i
c_njkh["W][Z_ijh_Xkj_edehWffb_YWXb[i_bl_YkbjkhWbioij[c$
J^[jhWdi_j_ed\hecWijWdZ#b[l[b#XWi[Z]hemj^fhe`[Yj_edioij[cWi_cfb[#
c[dj[Z_do_[bZjWXb[ijejh[[]hemj^ceZ[biYWdX[Yedi_Z[h[ZWiW\kdZWc[d#
jWb Y^Wd][ m_j^_d \eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[b_d] X[YWki[ de fh[Z[\_d[Z b_c_ji _d if[#
Y_[i c_njkh[" i_bl_YkbjkhWb jh[Wjc[dj WdZ%eh jh[[ W][ [n_ij$ >_ijeh_YWbbo if[Wa#
_d] j^[ \_hij jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi m[h[ Z[l[bef[Z _d Dehj^7c[h_YW i[[ D[md#
^Wc'/,*1IjW]['/-)1Cedi[hkZ'/-+1Moae\\[jWb$'/.(1lWd:[ki[dWdZ8_]#
_d] '/.+1M[di[b WdZ Ae[^b[h '/.+1 8kha^Whj [j Wb$ '/.-$ <eh IYWdZ_dWl_W WdZ
Y[djhWb ;khef[" j^[ cW_d jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[b_d] YedY[fji m[h[ Z[l[bef[Z Zkh#
_d]j^[[Whbo'//&i1\ehZ[jW_bii[[Ij[hXW'/.)"FkaaWbW'/.."'/./"Fh[jpiY^
'//("(&&'">Wi[dWk[h'//*"(&&&"DW][b'//+"Ij[hXW[jWb$'//+"Cedi[hkZ
WdZIj[hXW'//,"AW^dWdZFh[jpiY^'//-"DW][b[jWb$(&&(WdZFh[jpiY^[j
Wb$(&&($J^[i[ceZ[biXWi_YWbbo[nj[dZ[Zj^[fh[l_ekiceZ[bWffheWY^[ijeWbb
cW`ehif[Y_[i_d;khef[$<eh\khj^[hZ[jW_bii[[Wbieled=WZemWdZ>k_'///
WdZFh[jpiY^(&&'$
'ENERALÈ3TRUCTUREÈOFÈAÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODEL
Jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi Yedi_ij e\ Z_Wc[j[h WdZ ^[_]^j _dYh[c[dj \kdYj_edi je
fh[Z_Yj]hemj^WdZWcehjWb_jo[gkWj_edjefh[Z_Yjj^[fheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo
\eh[WY^jh[[el[hW]_l[dj_c[_dj[hlWbkikWbbo+o[Whi$?dWZZ_j_ed"Wh[][d[hW#
j_edeh_d]hemj^hekj_d[jeh[Yhk_jd[mjh[[i_id[[Z[Zje[dikh[Yedi_ij[dji_c#
kbWj_edekjfkj$I[l[hWbjh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehiWbie_dYbkZ[\ehc\WYjeh\kdYj_edi
WdZWiiehjc[djjWXb[ijefh[Z_Yjlebkc[WdZ%ehc[hY^WdjWXb[lebkc[Z[l[bef#
c[djel[hj_c[$
CWdo jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi Wh[ Z[i_]d[Z je \eh[YWij jh[[ ]hemj^ m_j^_d kd[#
l[d#W][Z\eh[iji$J^kiijWdZW]["ed[e\j^[a[oZh_l_d]lWh_WXb[im_j^_do_[bZjW#
Xb[i"YWddejX[ki[ZWdZWbb\kdYj_edickijX[W][_dZ[f[dZ[dj$IkXceZ[biWh[
_dYbkZ[Z je Wii[ii j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed i_jkWj_ed e\ [WY^ jh[[ m_j^_d j^[ ijWdZ$ 8[#
YWki[ Yhemd b[d]j^ eh Yhemd hWj_e _i W a[o Zh_l[h m_j^_d ]hemj^ WdZ cehjWb_jo
\kdYj_edi"jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi_dYbkZ[Wd[gkWj_edjekfZWj[j^[Yhemdb[d]j^eh
YhemdhWj_e$
?cfehjWdjYecf[j_j_edlWh_WXb[iWh['Yhemdb[d]j^ehYhemdhWj_ejeWii[ii
j^[Yecf[j_j_edj^WjWjh[[[nf[h_[dY[Z_dj^[fWijWdZ(j^[Ykhh[djYecf[j_#
j_ed _dZ[n \eh WZZh[ii_d] j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed \eh [WY^ jh[[ m_j^_d j^[ ijWdZ$ Iec[
jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi[nfb_Y_jbo_dYbkZ[j^[Y^Wd][_dj^[Yecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_edX[#
\eh[WdZW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[jeWZZh[iij^[\WYjj^WjZ[f[dZ_d]edj^[jh[[if[#
Y_[i"bem[heh^_]^[h_dYh[c[djhWj[icWoX[feii_Xb[_cc[Z_Wj[boW\j[hYhemdh[#
b[Wi[l[hikiWjh[["m^_Y^_i[nf[h_[dY_d]j^[iWc[Yecf[j_j_edb[l[bXkjm_j^ekj
Yhemdh[b[Wi[$Jof_YWb[nWcfb[iWh[j^[WYY[b[hWj_ede\]hemj^_dZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[#
c[dje\YeccedX[[Y^WdZj^[Z[Yb_d[_d^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\ehDehmWoifhkY[
Zkh_d]j^[\_hij+o[WhiW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[>Wi[dWk[h'//*$CeZ[bij^Wj[nfb_Y#
, #(!04%2È 9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]
_jbo_dYbkZ[Yhemdh[b[Wi[WifWhje\j^[]hemj^\kdYj_ediWh[<EH;IJCedi[hkZ
'/-+"I?BL7Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&(WdZCEI;I>Wi[dWk[h'//*$
)NCREMENTÈ&UNCTIONS
JmeYedY[fjkWbWffheWY^[iWh[feii_Xb[\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]j^[+#o[WhZ_Wc[j[h_d#
Yh[c[djWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\eh[WY^jh[[m_j^_dWijWdZ0'fej[dj_WbZ[f[dZ#
[djeh(fej[dj_Wb_dZ[f[dZ[dj]hemj^\kdYj_edi$
Fej[dj_WbZ[f[dZ[djZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[djfh[Z_Yj_edim[h[\_hijfhe#
fei[ZXoD[md^Wc'/,*WdZWiikc[Wdkff[hb_c_jehWb_c_j[Z]hemj^$J^_i
kff[hb_c_jeh]hemj^fej[dj_Wb_iif[Y_[iWdZi_j[if[Y_\_Y$CeZ[biXWi[Zedj^_i
YedY[fj ckij \_hij Z[\_d[ if[Y_[i# WdZ i_j[#if[Y_\_Y Z_Wc[j[h WdZ ^[_]^j _dYh[#
c[djfej[dj_Wbi$J^[i[fej[dj_WbiWh[j^[dh[ZkY[Z\eh[WY^jh[[m_j^_dWijWdZWY#
YehZ_d]jej^[if[Y_\_YYecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_ede\[WY^jh[[WdZYWdX[Z[h_l[Zki#
_d]Yhemdb[d]j^WdZYecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[i$?j_imehj^dej_d]j^WjWi_c_bWhÆfe#
j[dj_Wb]hemj^ÇYedY[fj^WiX[[d_cfb[c[dj[Zm_j^_d]WfceZ[b_d]i[[8eja_d
[jWb$'/-(XoZ[\_d_d]Wif[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Yfej[dj_Wb$7YjkWb]hemj^hWj[im_j^_dW
]WfceZ[bWh[j^[dZ[h_l[Zki_d]j^_iif[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Yfej[dj_WbWdZie#YWbb[Zh[#
ifedi[\kdYj_ediX[jm[[d&WdZ'\ehb_]^j"mWj[h"j[cf[hWjkh[WdZdkjh_[djije
h[ZkY[j^[]hemj^fej[dj_Wbjej^[WYjkWb]hemj^WYYehZ_d]jelWho_d]i_j[YedZ_#
j_ediWdZj^[Yecf[j_j_l[ijWjkie\[WY^jh[[m_j^_dj^[ijWdZ$
Jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biXWi[Zedj^[fej[dj_Wb]hemj^YedY[fjcWo^Wl[j^[\eb#
bem_d]\ehc0
_dY3fej_dYÕ9HWÕ'Ä[XÕ9ECF!E
m^[h[_dY_ij^[WYjkWb+#o[Wh_dYh[c[dj\eh[WY^jh[["fej_dYj^[fh[Z[\_d[Z
+#o[Wh fej[dj_Wb _dYh[c[dj Xo if[Y_[i WdZ i_j[ YedZ_j_edi"9H j^[ Yhemd hWj_ed"
9ECF j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ_Y[i" W WdZ X_ j^[ fWhWc[j[h [ij_cWj[i WdZ E j^[ h[#
cW_d_d][hhehYecfed[dji$
9edi_Z[h_d]j^[][d[hWbceZ[b\ehckbWj_ed"m[i[[j^Wjh[Wb_ij_YZ[\_d_j_edie\
fej[dj_Wbf[h_eZ_YWbZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[djiWh[[ii[dj_WbX[YWki[j^[i[
dkcX[hiZ[\_d[j^[kff[hb_c_jehcWn_ckcfeii_Xb[]hemj^m_j^_dj^[ceZ[b$
?dYh[c[djfh[Z_Yj_ediYedl[h][jekff[hWdZbem[hWiocfjej[iZ[f[dZ_d]edj^[
Yecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_ed$J^[+#o[Wh^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj_ie\j[dZ[l[bef[ZXoi_j[#WdZ
if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Yc[WdZec_dWdjjh[[^[_]^jZ[l[befc[djj^Wj_iZ[h_l[Z\heci_j[
_dZ[n\kdYj_edi$7\j[hh[WhhWd]_d]j^[i[[gkWj_edi"j^[YWbYkbWjehoW][e\[WY^
jh[[YWdX[Z[\_d[ZWYYehZ_d]jei_j[_dZ[nWdZWYjkWbjh[[^[_]^j$7ZZ_d]+o[Whi
jej^[YWbYkbWj[Zjh[[W][WdZWiikc_d]WZec_dWdjjh[["j^[Z_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[d
j^_iYWbYkbWj[Zjh[[^[_]^jWdZj^[WYjkWbjh[[^[_]^j]_l[ij^[if[Y_[i#WdZi_j[#
if[Y_\_Y^[_]^j_dYh[c[djfej[dj_Wb$Iec[Wkj^ehi^Wl[[nj[dZ[Zj^_ifheY[Zkh[
XoZ[h_l_d]j^[fej[dj_Wbjh[[^[_]^j\kdYj_ediki_d]i_j[fWhWc[j[hii[[AW^d
WdZ:khiao'///$Dej[j^WjZec_dWdjjh[[^[_]^j]hemj^_ii_j[if[Y_\_YWdZj^ki
i_j[lWh_Wj_ediWh[WZZh[ii[ZWjj^_ife_djm_j^_dj^[ceZ[b$
È 'ENERALÈ3TRUCTUREÈOFÈAÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODEL -
J^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj\kdYj_edicWoX[Z[\_d[ZXoie#YWbb[Zef[d
]hemdjh[[Z_c[di_edi$?j_iX[b_[l[Zj^WjikY^ef[d]hemdjh[[i^Wl[d[l[h[n#
f[h_[dY[Z Wdo Yecf[j_j_ed WdZ j^ki j^[ jh[[ Z_c[di_edi cWo X[ Yedi_Z[h[Z Wi
j^[ cWn_ckc eh fej[dj_Wb Z_c[di_edi j^Wj W jh[[ cWo ^Wl[$ I_cfb[ Wbbec[jh_Y
\kdYj_ediikY^Wij^ei[]_l[d_d>Wi[dWk[h'//-WbbemkijeYWbYkbWj[\eh[WY^
jh[[^[_]^jj^[fej[dj_WbXh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[hWjh[[mekbZ^Wl["_\ef[d]hemd$
Jof_YWb [nWcfb[i \eh ceZ[bi \ebbem_d] j^_i WffheWY^ Wh[ I?BL7 Fh[jpiY^ '//(1
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&("CEI;I>Wi[dWk[h'//*WdZ8#M?DDW][b'//+$
J^[i[YedZ_cfehjWdjWffheWY^ki[Zm_j^_djh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]Ze[idej
Z[\_d[W]hemj^fej[dj_Wb$J^[WYjkWb]hemj^_dYh[c[djie\Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j
_dYh[c[djhWj[iWh[[ij_cWj[ZZ_h[Yjbo\hecj^[WlW_bWXb[ZWjWWdZWh[edboXWi[Z
edWi[je\_dZ[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[i$Dekff[hb_c_jiehcWn_ckc]hemj^_dYh[c[dj
hWj[iWh[Z[\_d[Z$I_j[lWh_Wj_ediWij^[ocWoW\\[Yjjh[[]hemj^Wh[fWhje\j^[Z[#
f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[i$J^[][d[hWbh[bWj_edi^_fcWo^Wl[j^[\ebbem_d]\ehc0
?d_dY3W!XÕjh[[!YÕYecf!ZÕi_j[!E
m^[h[bd_dY_ij^[be]Wh_j^ce\j^[]hemj^Z_Wc[j[h%^[_]^j"jh[[_ij^[i[j
e\jh[[lWh_WXb[i"Yecfj^[lWh_WXb[iWii[ii_d]j^[Yecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_ede\[WY^
jh[[m_j^_dj^[ijWdZ"i_j[j^[lWh_WXb[\ehZ[\_d_d]j^[i_j[lWh_Wj_edi"W"X"YWdZ
Zj^[if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_YYe[\\_Y_[dj[ij_cWj[iWdZEj^[h[cW_d_d][hhehYecfed[dj$
FHE=DEI?IIjW]['/-)1Moae\\'//&WdZFHE=D7KICedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW
'//,Wh[jof_YWb[nWcfb[ie\j^_ijof[e\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[b$
È
#OMPETITIONÈ)NDICES
Ed[e\j^[cW_dWY^_[l[c[djie\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi_ij^Wjjh[[]hemj^YWd
X[Wii[ii[Z\eh[WY^jh[[m_j^_dj^[ijWdZWYYehZ_d]je_jikd_gk[Yecf[j_j_l[i_j#
kWj_ed$CkY^[\\ehj^WiX[[dfkj_djeh[i[WhY^_d]WdZj[ij_d]WlWh_[joe\Z_\\[h[dj
_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[ij^WjYWdX[ki[Zjefh[Z_Yjjh[[]hemj^i[[
8_]_d]WdZ:eXX[hj_d'//+$
J^[XWi_Yfh_dY_fb[\ehceije\j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[i_ij^Wjj^[oWiikc[W
Y[hjW_dc_d_ckcZ_ijWdY[X[jm[[dd[_]^Xeh_d]jh[[iX[\eh[Yecf[j_j_edeYYkhi$
I_dY[j^[ijkZoXoAhW`_Y[a[jWb$'/,'j^_ic_d_ckcZ_ijWdY[_ie\j[dZ[h_l[ZXo
j^[hWZ_kie\j^[YhemdWh[We\Wdef[d]hemdjh[[$J^_ief[d]hemdYhemdhWZ_ki
\ehW]_l[djh[[YWdX[[Wi_boYWbYkbWj[Zki_d]Wbbec[jh_Y\kdYj_edie\ef[d]hemd
Yhemdjh[[Z_c[di_edi>Wi[dWk[h'//-ki_d]WYjkWbZ_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^j
ehj^[jh[[^[_]^je\jmed[_]^Xeh_d]jh[[i$?\j^[Yhemdie\ef[d]hemdjh[[iX[#
]_djeel[hbWf"jh[[Yecf[j_j_ed_i[l_Z[djWdZm_bbW\\[Yjjh[[]hemj^i[[<_]$'$($
J^_iYedY[fjmWifhefei[ZXo8[bbW'/-'WdZcWdo[n_ij_d]Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[i
Wh[Yedi_Z[h[ZjeX[lWh_Wdjieh[nj[di_edie\j^_ieh_]_dWb_Z[W$
7d_dj[h[ij_d][nj[di_ede\j^_iWffheWY^_ij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nfhefei[Z
Xo Fh[jpiY^ '//($ J^_i _dZ[n Wiikc[i W fej[dj_Wb Yed[ je Z[\_d[ j^[ ]hem_d]
ped[ \eh W jh[[ m_j^ekj Yecf[j_j_ed$ J^_i j^h[[#Z_c[di_edWb _dZ[n Wii[ii[i j^[
Yecf[j_j_ede\jmed[_]^Xeh_d]jh[[iXoj^[_hel[hbWfe\j^[d[_]^Xeh_d]jh[[_d#
. #(!04%2È 9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]
jej^[fej[dj_WbifWY[e\j^[\_hijjh[[WYYehZ_d]jej^[i_p[e\j^[fej[dj_WbYed[
e\j^[\_hijjh[[$?\Yed[iel[hbWfYecf[j_j_ed_i[l_Z[dj_dWcWdd[hi_c_bWhjej^[
jme#Z_c[di_edWbYedY[fj[nfbW_d[Zfh[l_ekibo$
7bj^ek]^WbWh][dkcX[he\_dZ_Y[i^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[ZWdZj[ij[Zj^[oYWd
X[i[fWhWj[Z_djejme]hekfi0'Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj_dZ_Y[i"m^[h[j^[fei_j_ed
e\[WY^jh[[WdZj^kij^[Z_ijWdY[X[jm[[dd[_]^Xehi_iademd"WdZ(Z_ijWdY[#
_dZ[f[dZ[dj_dZ_Y[i"m^_Y^Wiikc[Wc[WdZ_ijWdY[X[jm[[d[WY^jh[[edW]_l#
[dfbej$
:_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djYecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[i^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[ZWdZki[Zm_j^#
_d]hemj^_dYh[c[dj\kdYj_edije_dYh[Wi[j^[WYYkhWYoe\j^[fh[Z_Yj_ediWdZje
WZZh[ii ifWj_Wb WdZ ijhkYjkhWb _iik[i$ ?\ W Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj WffheWY^ _i ki[Z"
ZWjWm_j^h[YehZ[ZnWdZoYeehZ_dWj[ickijX[WlW_bWXb[\ehYWb_XhWj_d]j^[_d#
Yh[c[djWdZcehjWb_jo\kdYj_edi$>em[l[h"\ehceZ[bWffb_YWj_edij^[fei_j_ede\
[WY^jh[[cWoX[Z[h_l[Z\ehcZ_ijh_Xkj_edhekj_d[im^_Y^^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z
je][d[hWj[h[Wb_ij_YijWdZi_jkWj_ediWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\Wi_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ$;n#
Wcfb[iWh[j^[IJHK=;DFh[jpiY^'//)1Fecc[h[d_d](&&&"j^[=_XXifheY[ii
ceZ[b:[][d^WhZj'//."Wd_dZ[n#XWi[ZWb]eh_j^cfhefei[ZXoB[mWdZemia_
WdZled=WZem'//-"WdZj^[IjWdZ][d[hWj_edfhe]hWcIJ7D:=;DA_jj[d#
X[h][h(&&)$?j_i_cfehjWdjjedej[j^Wjm_j^_dWZ_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djWffheWY^
j^[jh[[beYWj_edZe[idejY^Wd][j^hek]^ekjj^[i_ckbWj_edhkd$J^_icWoX[_c#
fehjWdj_\ijhkYjkhWb"j[njkhWbehc_njkh[[\\[Yjid[[ZjeX[Wii[ii[Z$
È 'ENERALÈ3TRUCTUREÈOFÈAÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODEL /
CeZ[biki_d]WZ_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nWiikc[Wc[WdZ_i#
jWdY[X[jm[[djh[[iedW]_l[dfbejh[]WhZb[iie\j^[WYjkWbijWdZi_jkWj_edehj^[
ijWdZjh[Wjc[djiY[dWh_eWffb_[Z$J^[WZlWdjW][_dki_d]ikY^Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ_#
Y[i_ij^Wjdejh[[YeehZ_dWj[iWh[d[[Z[ZZkh_d]j^[YWb_XhWj_edfheY[iiWdZ\eh
hkdd_d]j^[ceZ[b$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZj^[jhWZ[#e\\_ij^WjWc[WdZ_ijWdY[X[#
jm[[dj^[jh[[i]hem_d]WjW]_l[dfbej_iWiikc[Z$J^_iik]][ijij^Wjm_j^_dj^[
ceZ[b_d] ioij[c jh[[i Wh[ dej \_n[Z X[YWki[ Wj j^[ X[]_dd_d] e\ [WY^ i_ckbW#
j_edhkdWd[l[dboZ_ijh_Xkj[ZijWdZi_jkWj_ed_iWiikc[Zh[]WhZb[iie\j^[WYjk#
WbijhkYjkh[e\j^[\eh[ij$?\j^[fbej_iicWbbj^_icWoX[d[]b_]_Xb["Xkj_\j^[fbej
i_p[_dYh[Wi[iWdZ%ehY[hjW_di_bl_YkbjkhWbiY[dWh_eiWh[jeX[Wffb_[Z"j^[ceZ[b[Z
ijWdZi_jkWj_edcWoZ_l[h][\hecj^[h[Wbi_jkWj_ed$
#ROWNÈ-ODELS
M_j^_djh[[ceZ[b_d]"c[Wikh_d]Yhemdb[d]j^"Yhemdm_Zj^ehYhemdhWj_e
Wh[Yedi_Z[h[ZjeX[c[j^eZijeWii[iij^[Yecf[j_j_edWjh[[^Wi[nf[h_[dY[Z_d
j^[fWij$J^[oWh[Wbiec[Wikh[ie\jh[[l_jWb_joWdZWiikY^ikhhe]Wj[i\ehb[W\Wh#
[W_dZ[n"Wa[oYecfed[djjec[Wikh[j^[kfjWa[e\f^ejeiodj^Wj[iWdZj^kileb#
kc[]hemj^$8[YWki[Yhemdb[d]j^ehYhemdikh\WY[Wh[W_iki[ZWiWa[oZh_l_d]
lWh_WXb[m_j^_dj^[]hemj^WdZcehjWb_jo\kdYj_edi"ceZ[bi\ehkfZWj_d]Yhemd
b[d]j^^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z$J^[\ebbem_d]WffheWY^[icWoX[Z_ij_d]k_i^[Z0
'$ 9hemd hWj_e ceZ[bi i[[ >Wi[dWk[h WdZ Cedi[hkZ '//, m^_Y^ fh[Z_Yj j^[
YhemdhWj_eWjW]_l[dj_c[WiW\kdYj_ede\jh[["Yecf[j_j_edWdZi_j[lWh_W#
Xb[i$
($ >[_]^jjej^[b_l[YhemdXWi[ceZ[biFh[jpiY^'//(1DW][b'//+m^_Y^[ij_#
cWj[j^[Yb[WhXeb[b[d]j^WjW]_l[dj_c[WiW\kdYj_ede\jh[[WdZYecf[j_j_ed
c[Wikh[i$9WbYkbWj_d]j^[Z_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[dj^[jh[[^[_]^jWdZj^[^[_]^jje
j^[XWi[e\j^[b_l[Yhemd]_l[ij^[d[Y[iiWhoYhemdb[d]j^ehYhemdhWj_e\eh
[WY^jh[[Wjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\Wi_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ$
)$ 9^Wd][i _d j^[ ^[_]^j e\ j^[ b_l[ Yhemd XWi[ I^ehj WdZ 8kha^Whj '//(1
>Wi[dWk[h'//*$J^_iWffheWY^cWoX[Yedi_Z[h[ZWZodWc_YYhemdceZ[b
X[YWki[j^[Y^Wd][_dj^[Yb[WhXeb[b[d]j^Wi_jZ[f[dZiedjh[["Yecf[j_j_ed
WdZi_j[lWh_WXb[i_iZ[h_l[Z\ehW]_l[dj_c[_dj[hlWb$Dej[j^Wjj^_iWffheWY^
h[gk_h[ih[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edie\^[_]^jjej^[b_l[Yhemd\ehceZ[bYWb_XhW#
j_ed$
-ORTALITYÈ-ODELS
Jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi fh[Z_Yj j^[ cehjWb_jo \eh [WY^ jh[[ Xo YWbYkbWj_d] j^[
fheXWX_b_jo e\ cehjWb_jo Z[f[dZ_d] ed jh[[ Yecf[j_j_ed WdZ i_j[ lWh_WXb[i$ 8[#
YWki[j^[Z[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[_iX_dWhoZ[WZehWb_l[Ä&eh'"BE=?JceZ[biWh[
WYeccedc[j^eZD[j[hWdZCWod[i'/-&jeZ[h_l[j^[fWhWc[j[hYe[\\_Y_[dji
ki_d] cWn_ckc b_a[b_^eeZ fheY[Zkh[i Cedi[hkZ WdZ Ij[hXW '///1 >Wi[dWk[h
'& #(!04%2È 9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]
(&&&$7feii_Xb[Wbj[hdWj_l[cWoX[d[khWbd[jmehai>Wi[dWk[h[jWb$(&&'$7
jof_YWb\ehckbWj_ed\ehWcehjWb_joceZ[b^Wij^[\ebbem_d]\ehc0
'
f3#####################!E
½½½½½½½½½½½½½½½[W!X_Õn_
m^[h[f_ij^[fheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo"n_j^[i[je\fWhWc[j[hii[b[Yj[ZWdZW
WdZX_j^[[ij_cWj[ZYe[\\_Y_[djiki_d]cWn_ckcb_a[b_^eeZfheY[Zkh[i$J^_ih[#
ikbji_dWfheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo\eh[WY^jh[[WdZ]hem_d]f[h_eZ$J^[\_dWbZ[#
Y_i_edm^[j^[hWjh[[Z_[im_j^_dW]_l[d+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ WdZj^ki^Wije
X[h[cel[Z\hecj^[jh[[b_ij_icWZ[XoYecfWh_d]j^[[ij_cWj[ZfheXWX_b_joe\
cehjWb_jom_j^Wkd_\ehcboZ_ijh_Xkj[ZhWdZecdkcX[h$
Ed[ e\ j^[ Z_\\_Ykbj_[i _d YWb_XhWj_d] cehjWb_jo ceZ[bi _i j^Wj cehjWb_jo _i W
hWj^[hhWh[[l[dj$:[f[dZ_d]edj^[ijWdZ"j^[Wl[hW][+#o[WhcehjWb_johWj[e\j^[
jejWbij[cdkcX[hf[h^[YjWh[cWolWho\hecWXekj'&_dl[hooekd]ijWdZije
b[iij^Wd'f[h+o[Whi_debZ\eh[iji$?dWZZ_j_ed"jh[[cehjWb_jo_ie\j[dW\\[Yj[Z
Xo[nj[hdWb_cfWYjiikY^WiZhek]^jijh[ii"[jY$9edi[gk[djbo"\ehW]_l[dYecf[j#
_j_l[i_jkWj_ed"jh[[cehjWb_jocWoX[gk_j[lWh_WXb[WdZj^_icWa[ij^[Yebb[Yj_ed
e\ZWjW\ehZ[l[bef_d]jh[[cehjWb_joceZ[biZ_\\_YkbjWdZ[nf[di_l[$Dej[j^Wj_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[cehjWb_jofh[Z_Yj_edicWoX[Yedi_Z[h[ZWied[e\j^[ceijZ_\\_Ykbj
jWiaim_j^_djh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]$
2EGENERATIONÈ-ODELS
;ij_cWj_d]j^[h[Yhk_jc[djeh_d]hemj^e\j[[i\ebbem_d]j^[Z[Wj^ehYkjj_d]
e\Wdel[hijehojh[[_iYhkY_Wbje[dikh[ikijW_dWX_b_jo_dkd[l[d#W][c_n[Zif[#
Y_[iijWdZi$KikWbbo"jh[[iX[bemWZ[\_d[Zjh[[^[_]^jehXh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h
Wh[Yedi_Z[h[ZWih[][d[hWj_edm^_b[Wbbej^[hjh[[iX[bed]jej^[el[hijehofefk#
bWj_ed$J^[i[j^h[i^ebZicW_dboZ[f[dZedj^[ZWjWced_jeh_d]fhe]hWc$<eh[n#
Wcfb["m^_b[edbed]#j[hch[i[WhY^fbeji_j_iYeccedj^WjWbbjh[[ijWbb[hj^Wd
'$)c X[bed] je j^[ el[hijeho fefkbWj_ed" \eh[ij _dl[djeh_[i e\j[d ki[ W Y[hjW_d
c_d_ckcZ_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^j:8>[$]$+$+Yc"<8L7'//*jeh[ZkY[j^[
ZWjWced_jeh_d]Yeiji$
Ed[efj_edjeh[Yhk_jjh[[i[dj[h_d]j^[el[hijehofefkbWj_ed_ij^[YWb_XhWj_ed
e\_d]hemj^ceZ[biB[Z[hcWdd(&&($8Wi[Zedh[fh[i[djWj_l[\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[i
j^[fheXWX_b_joj^Wjjh[[im_bbfWiiWfh[Z[\_d[Zj^h[i^ebZ+$+Ycm_j^_d+o[Whi
YWdX[fh[Z_Yj[Z$IkY^ceZ[biZedej[nfb_Y_jboWii[iih[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj
WdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^$
I_dY[i[l[hWbi_bl_YkbjkhWbioij[ci\eYkiedj^[_d_j_Wj_edWdZ%ehfhecej_ede\
h[][d[hWj_edfheY[ii[i"h[Y[djWffheWY^[i^Wl[ifb_jj^[h[Yhk_jc[dje\`kl[d_b[
j[[i_djeZ_\\[h[djij[fiXo[nfb_Y_jbojWa_d]_djeWYYekdjh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^#
c[djFkaaWbWWdZAebijhc'//(1H_XX[di[jWb$'//*1IY^m[_][hWdZIj[hXW'//-1
>Wi[dWk[h[jWb$(&&&18_X[hWdZ>[hb_d](&&(1>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(
WdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^Cedi[hkdZWdZ;a'/--1=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-1
8_X[hWdZ>[hb_d](&&(1A_dZ[hcWdd[jWb$(&&($H[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ
È $ATAÈ.EEDEDÈFORÈ#ALIBRATINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELS ''
`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^cWolWhoijhed]boZk[jeYb_cWj[WdZc_Yhei_j[YedZ_j_ediWi
m[bbWihWdZec_cfWYjiikY^Wi\bem[h_d]"\hkYj_\_YWj_ed"[jY$J^_icWa[ij^[YWb_#
XhWj_ede\h[][d[hWj_edceZ[biceh[Z_\\_Ykbj$
7d _cfehjWdj YedY[hd _d Z[l[bef_d] h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[bi _i j^[ WlW_bWX_b_#
joe\ZWjW$Iec[\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[ih[YehZh[][d[hWj_ed_d\ehcWj_ededbo_\WY[h#
jW_dc_d_ckcj^h[i^ebZ_dj^[dkcX[he\`kl[d_b[if[hkd_jWh[W_iWlW_bWXb[i[[
<8L7'//*$J^_icWob[WZjeX_Wi[Zh[ikbjiX[YWki[i_jkWj_edim_j^deehm_j^W
l[hoicWbbdkcX[he\`kl[d_b[jh[[iWh[[nYbkZ[Z\hecj^[ZWjW$<hecWfhWYj_YWb
cWdW][c[djfe_dje\l_[mj^[i[i_jkWj_ediWh[e\^_]^h[b[lWdY[X[YWki[_jmekbZ
X[_cfehjWdjjekdZ[hijWdZm^odeehedbob_jjb[h[][d[hWj_edeYYkhi$7iWh[ikbj
]hemj^ceZ[bij^Wj[nfb_Y_jboWZZh[iij^[h[][d[hWj_edfheY[iic_]^j\ebbemj^[
\ebbem_d]fheY[Zkh[i[[A_dZ[hcWdd[jWb$(&&(0
'$ Fh[Z_Yj_d]j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_edm_j^_dW]_l[d+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_#
eZ$
($ Fh[Z_Yj_d]j^[if[Y_[iZ_ijh_Xkj_ed$
)$ ;ij_cWj_d]h[][d[hWj_edZ[di_jo$
*$ :[j[hc_d_d]`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^Z[f[dZ_d]edj^[el[hijeho"_dj[h#WdZ_d#
jhW#if[Y_\_YYecf[j_j_edWim[bbWiYecf[diWjeho[\\[YjiZk[je[Z][[\\[Yj[Z
_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^j$
+$ :[j[hc_d_d]`kl[d_b[jh[[cehjWb_jo$
$ATAÈ.EEDEDÈFORÈ#ALIBRATINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELS
Jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[Y^Wd][_dZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\ehW
]_l[dj_c[_dj[hlWb[$]$+o[Whim^_Y^cWoZ[f[dZedjh[["Yecf[j_j_edWdZi_j[
Z[iYh_fjehi$8oWZZ_d]j^[fh[Z_Yj[Zf[h_eZ_YY^Wd][ijej^[jh[[Z_c[di_ediWj
j^[X[]_dd_d]e\j^[]hemj^f[h_eZ[$]$:8>"^[_]^jWdZ^[_]^jjej^[b_l[Yhemd
XWi[j^[jh[[Z_c[di_ediWjj^[[dZe\j^[]hem_d]f[h_eZWh[YWbYkbWj[Z$9ed#
i[gk[djbojh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWh[ZodWc_YX[YWki[j^[o\eYkiedWii[ii_d]j^[
Y^Wd][_dZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj$J^_i_ied[e\j^[_cfehjWdjYedY[fjk#
Wb\[Wjkh[ie\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ_jfhel_Z[ij^[\b[n_X_b_jod[[Z[ZjeX[_d#
Z[f[dZ[dj\hecW]["ijWdZijhkYjkh["c_njkh["[jY$J^_i_iWbieWl[hoikXijWdj_Wb
Z_\\[h[dY[\hecj^Wje\ej^[hfefkbWj_edceZ[biikY^Wi]WfceZ[bi8eja_d[j
Wb$'/-($
9Wb_XhWj_d] ZodWc_Y ]hemj^ ceZ[bi h[gk_h[i h[f[Wj[Z jh[[ eXi[hlWj_edi$ ?\
h[f[Wj[Z Z_Wc[j[h" ^[_]^j WdZ _\ feii_Xb[ ^[_]^j je j^[ b_l[ Yhemd c[Wikh[i Wh[
WlW_bWXb[j^[X[d[\_jie\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bil[hikio_[bZjWXb[iYWdX[\kbbokj_#
b_p[Z$7d _cfehjWdj fh[YedZ_j_ed je ^Wl_d] h[f[Wj[Z c[Wikh[c[dji WlW_bWXb[ _i
j^Wjf[hcWd[djfbejim_j^cWha[Zjh[[iWh[WlW_bWXb[iej^Wjj^[h[f[Wj[ZeXi[h#
lWj_ediWh[WbmWoijWa[dedj^[iWc[jh[[i$J^_iWle_ZiiWcfb_d][hhehWdZfhe#
l_Z[ij_c[i[h_[i$7dej^[h_cfehjWdjYedijhW_dj_ij^WjZWjW_dYbkZ_d]WlWh_[joe\
ijWdZZ[di_j_[i"c_njkh[jof[iWdZW][iWim[bbWiZ_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[dj_dj[di_j_[i
i^ekbZX[WlW_bWXb[jeYel[hj^[\kbbhWd][e\feii_Xb[]hemj^h[ifedi[i[nf[Yj[Z
\hecZ_\\[h[djijWdZjh[Wjc[dji$
'( #(!04%2È 9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]
?d][d[hWbm[cWoZ_ij_d]k_i^X[jm[[d_dl[djehoZWjWm^_Y^Wh[h[fh[i[djW#
j_l[\ehW]_l[d\eh[ijWh[WWdZf[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbejim^_Y^YeccedboYel[h
j^[lWh_Wj_ed_dZ_\\[h[djijWdZjh[Wjc[dji"i_j[YedZ_j_edi"W][ijhkYjkh[WdZif[#
Y_[ic_njkh[$M^_b[_dl[djeh_[iWh[Yeccedbo[ijWXb_i^[Zje]W_dWdel[hl_[me\
j^[\eh[ij#Yel[h[ZbWdZWh[W"f[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbejiWh[dehcWbbo[ijWXb_i^[Z
jeijkZo\eh[ij]hemj^h[ifedi[jeZ_\\[h[dji_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[dji$
<ehceZ[bYWb_XhWj_ed_jmekbZX[Z[i_hWXb[jeki[ZWjWi[jiYedi_ij_d]e\Xej^
jof[ie\ZWjWiekhY[iX[YWki[\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[icWodejYel[hj^[\kbbhWd][e\
_cfehjWdj i_bl_YkbjkhWb cWdW][c[dj ioij[ci m^_Y^ Wh[ _cfehjWdj \eh [dikh_d]
h[b_WXb[fh[Z_Yj_edi_\Wm_Z[hWd][e\iY[dWh_eieYYkhi$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZf[hcW#
d[djfbejZWjWcWodejX[h[fh[i[djWj_l[e\j^[\eh[ijbWdZe\WfWhj_YkbWhh[]_ed
WdZcWodej_dYbkZ[YedY[fjkWbbo_cfehjWdj]hemj^i_jkWj_edi$
:WjWm_j^l[ho^_]^ijWdZZ[di_j_[iWh[cW_dboWlW_bWXb[\heckdjh[Wj[Z\eh#
[iji" m^_b[ j^[ ej^[h [njh[c[" l[ho bem Z[di_j_[i" ]hem_d] kdZ[h Wbceij ef[d
]hemdjh[[YedZ_j_ediehl[ho_dj[di_l[jh[Wjc[djiWh[l[hokdYeccedX[YWki[
ikY^ cWdW][c[dj efj_edi Wh[ kikWbbo dej Wffb_[Z _d fhWYj_Y[$ >em[l[h" \hec W
YedY[fjkWb ceZ[b_d] fe_dj e\ l_[m ikY^ ZWjW Wh[ [njh[c[bo _cfehjWdj X[YWki[
j^[o mekbZ ^[bf ki je kdZ[hijWdZ ]hemj^ h[ifedi[ je Z_\\[h[dj b[l[bi e\ jh[Wj#
c[djiWij^[oWh[_cfehjWdj\ehi_bl_YkbjkhWbiY[dWh_eWdWboi_iFh[jpiY^'//+$
J^_iZ_\\[h[dY[_dj^[ZWjWiekhY[\ehceZ[bYWb_XhWj_ed_iWbie_cfehjWdj\eh
h[bWj_d]i_j[lWh_Wj_edjeW\\[Yjie\jh[[]hemj^$M^_b[WZWjWiekhY[XWi[ZedWioi#
j[cWj_Y]h_Zi[[\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjWWbbemikijej[ij\ehfeii_Xb[i_j[lWh_Wj_edi
j^WjWh[c[Wikh[ZXoi_j[Z[iYh_fjehii[[^kcki"ie_b"l[][jWj_edjof["[jY$m_j^_d
FHE=DEI?IehFHE=D7KI"jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biXWi[Zedf[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^
fbejie\j[dki[j^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^jZ[l[befc[djm^_Y^_i[ij_cWj[Z\heci_j[_d#
Z[n\kdYj_edi_dehZ[hje_dYehfehWj[fheZkYj_l_joZ_\\[h[dY[i[$]$I?BL7CEI;I
8M?D$J^[kdZ[hbo_d]Wiikcfj_ed^[h[_ij^WjedY[j^[h[bWj_l[fhefehj_ed\eh
h[ZkY_d]Wfej[dj_Wbjh[[]hemj^jej^[WYjkWb_dYh[c[djlWbk[i_iZ[\_d[Z_j_ifhe#
fehj_edWb_d_jic[Y^Wd_ich[]WhZb[iie\j^[i_j[gkWb_jo$
9eccedbojh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWiikc[YedijWdji_j[YedZ_j_edii_dY[j^[oWh[
dej _dj[dZ[Z je X[ i[di_j_l[ je Y^Wd]_d] Yb_cWj[$ J^[h[\eh[ _j _i _cfehjWdj j^Wj
j^[ZWjWki[Z\ehceZ[bYWb_XhWj_edZedej_dYbkZ[f[h_eZ_YY^Wd][i_dj^[m[Wj^#
[hYedZ_j_ediX[YWki[j^_icWoijhed]boW\\[Yjjh[[_dYh[c[djhWj[i$:WjWiekhY#
[i\ehYWb_XhWj_edi^ekbZYec[\hecZ_\\[h[dj+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZiiej^Wjkd#
Z[h#ehel[h[ij_cWj_ed_dj^[h[ikbj_d]]hemj^fh[Z_Yj_ediZk[jeY^Wd][i_dWd#
dkWbYb_cWj[YWdX[Wle_Z[Z$
4HEÈ(EURISTICÈ4RANSFORMATIONÈOFÈ)NPUTÈ$ATA
Ed[ YedijhW_dj _d j^[ WlW_bWX_b_jo e\ ZWjW \eh ceZ[b_d] cWo X[ j^Wj l[ho e\#
j[dm[^Wl[h[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edi\eh:8>XkjedboWb_c_j[ZdkcX[he\h[f[Wj#
[Z^[_]^jWdZ^[_]^jjej^[b_l[Yhemdc[Wikh[c[djiZk[jej^[^_]^Yeije\ikY^
c[Wikh[c[dji$9eccedfhWYj_Y[_dj^_ii_jkWj_ed_ij^Wjc_ii_d]jh[[^[_]^jiWh[
Z[h_l[Z\hecj^[:8>ki_d]^[kh_ij_Y\kdYj_edi$I_c_bWhfheY[Zkh[iWh[ki[Z\eh
[ij_cWj_d]j^[c_ii_d]jejWb^[_]^jWdZj^[^[_]^je\j^[b_l[YhemdXWi[_dehZ[h
È 3UMMARYÈANDÈ#ONCLUSION ')
je[ij_cWj[YhemdhWj_e$I[l[hWb]hemj^ceZ[bi^Wl[ki[Z^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\kdY#
j_ediXWi[ZedikY^iceej^[ZZWjW[$]$Cedi[hkZ'/-+1DW][b'//+$
7bbj^[i[[nWcfb[i[n^_X_jikhfh_i_d]bo^_]^Ye[\\_Y_[djie\Z[j[hc_dWj_edh[b#
Wj_l[je_dYh[c[djceZ[bij^Wjki[WYecfb[j[iWcfb[e\h[f[Wj[Zjh[[^[_]^jeX#
i[hlWj_edi[$]$'+\ehifhkY[m_j^_d7kijh_W$J^[[nfbWdWj_ed\ehj^_if^[dec#
[ded_ij^Wj[n_ij_d]lWh_Wj_ed_i[nYbkZ[Z\hecikY^iceej^[ZÆ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj
ZWjWÇX[YWki[j^[hWdZeclWh_Wj_ed\eh^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h\kdYj_edie\WXekj¦($+c
_i_]deh[ZWdZj^_i^[kh_ij_YZWjWjhWdi\ehcWj_edcWo[l[db[WZjeX_Wi[ZWdZ_d#
Yedi_ij[dj^[_]^j_dYh[c[djfh[Z_Yj_edii[[>Wi[dWk[hWdZCedi[hkZ'//-$
7i_cfb[YWbYkbWj_edcWoZ[cedijhWj[j^[fheXb[c0Wiikc_d]Wc[Wikh[c[dj
[hhehe\¦&$+c\eh^[_]^jc[Wikh[c[djiWjj^[X[]_dd_d]WdZ[dZe\j^[]hemj^
f[h_eZ"j^[c[Wikh[c[dj[hheh\eh^[_]^j_dYh[c[djmekbZX[¦&$-&$+3}(3&$-$
?\m[Wiikc[j^Wjj^[Wl[hW][+#o[Wh^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\ehW]_l[dif[Y_[icWoX[
'$(c"e\m^_Y^Wffhen_cWj[bo+/_i[nf[Yj[ZjeX[j^[kd[nfbW_dWXb[c[Wikh[#
c[dj[hheh"j^[dWYYehZ_d]jej^[i[dkcX[hiW^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[bXWi[Zed
h[f[Wj[Z^[_]^jc[Wikh[c[djiYWdedbo[nfbW_d*'e\j^[[n_ij_d]lWh_Wj_ed$?\
m[Wiikc[WdH(lWbk[e\'+j^[lWh_Wj_ed[nfbW_d[ZXoj^[ceZ[b_iWffhen_#
cWj[boed[#j^_hZe\j^[[nfbW_dWXb[lWh_Wj_ed$
7i_c_bWhfheXb[c_i[l_Z[dj_\^[kh_ij_Y\kdYj_ediWh[ki[Zje][d[hWj[c_ii#
_d]jejWb^[_]^jjej^[b_l[Yhemdc[Wikh[c[dji$J^_iik]][ijij^Wjj^[h[b_WX_b_jo
e\fkXb_i^[ZH(lWbk[i\eh_dYh[c[djceZ[biijhed]bolWh_[iZ[f[dZ_d]edm^[j^#
[hh[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edieh^[kh_ij_YZWjWjhWdi\ehcWj_edfheY[Zkh[i^Wl[X[[d
Wffb_[Z$J^[bWjj[hc[j^eZ^Wih[cel[ZckY^lWh_Wj_edZk[jej^[ZWjWiceej^#
_d]fheY[Zkh[iWffb_[Zi[[>Wi[dWk[hWdZCedi[hkZ'//-$
3UMMARYÈANDÈ#ONCLUSION
IkijW_dWXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[djjeebickijfhel_Z[h[b_WXb[fh[Z_Yj_edi\ehkd#
[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZije[dikh[ikijW_dWXb[^Whl[ij_d]$J^[Y^Wd][e\
j^[i_bl_YkbjkhWbioij[c\hecWcW_dboYb[Wh#Ykj#Zh_l[djeWdkd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z
icWbb#iYWb[WdZ%eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[^Whl[ij_d]ioij[c[$]$jWh][jZ_Wc[j[hYkjj_d]"
[jY$cWa[iced_jeh_d]WdZ\eh[YWij_d]ceh[Yecfb[n$J^_i_dYh[Wi[_dYecfb[n#
_joh[gk_h[ij^[WZWfjWj_edWdZ%eh_djheZkYj_ede\d[m\eh[ijcWdW][c[djjeebi
ikY^Wijh[[]hemj^ceZ[bijefhel_Z[WYedY[fjkWb\hWc[mehaWdZYedjhebb_d]
_dijhkc[dj\eh\eh[ijYecfWd_[ije[dikh[ikijW_dWXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj_dj^[_h
ZWo#je#ZWomeha$
CeZ[bi ^Wl[ je WZZh[ii Yed\b_Yj_d] _dj[h[iji ikY^ Wi i_cfb_Y_jo" eXi[hlWX_b_#
joWdZX_ebe]_YWbh[Wb_icFWYWbW[jWb$'//,$M_j^_djh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]j^_i_i
[njh[c[bo_cfehjWdjX[YWki[ed[e\j^[cW_dYedijhW_dji_ij^Wjj^[Wffb_YWj_ed
i^ekbZX[XWi[Zedhekj_d[_dl[djehoZWjW$J^ki"h[i[WhY^[\\ehji^Wl[\eYki[Zed
kdZ[hijWdZ_d] j^[ j^[eh[j_YWb h[bWj_edi^_fi X[jm[[d jh[[ ]hemj^ WdZ Yecf[j_#
j_edXkjWbieed^em_d\ehcWj_edYWdX[Z[h_l[Zm_j^ekjWdZ%ehm_j^edboicWbb
Y^Wd][i_dj^[Z[i_]diej^Wj[n_ij_d]\eh[ijced_jeh_d]ioij[ciYWdX[kj_b_p[Z$
J^_iYedijhW_dj_i_cfehjWdj\eh[dikh_d]j^[fhWYj_YWX_b_joWdZ_cfb[c[djWj_ed
e\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]j^[ehoWiWfej[dj_WbWbj[hdWj_l[li$o_[bZjWXb[i$
'* #(!04%2È 9edY[fjiM_j^_dJh[[=hemj^CeZ[b_d]
Jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bih[gk_h[h[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edi:8>"^[_]^jWdZ_\feii_#
Xb[^[_]^jjej^[b_l[YhemdXWi[Yel[h_d]j^[\kbbhWd][e\[nf[Yj[ZijWdZi_jk#
Wj_edihWd]_d]\hecfkh[[l[d#W][Zjekd[l[d#W][Zc_n[ZWdZ^[Wl_bokdcWd#
W][Z\eh[iji_dehZ[hje\kbbokj_b_p[j^[YedY[fjkWbX[d[\_jiFh[jpiY^'//)1If[bb#
cWdd[jWb$'//,$J^[ofh[Z_Yjf[h_eZ_YWb_dYh[c[djWdZcehjWb_johWj[i\eh_dZ_#
l_ZkWbif[Y_[i"Yecf[j_j_l[i_jkWj_edWdZi_j[YedZ_j_edi$J^_i_iYb[WhboWZodWc#
_Y WffheWY^ X[YWki[ _j Wbbemi ki je WZZh[ii ]hemj^ lWh_Wj_edi WYYehZ_d] je Z_\#
\[h[djYecf[j_j_l[i_jkWj_edi$J^[^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djceZ[biWh[Z[#
h_l[Z_dZ[f[dZ[djbo"WdZWii[iiY^Wd][i_dj^[WbbeYWj_edfWjj[hdiZk[jeYhemd
h[b[Wi[[$]$j^_dd_d]"[jY$$J^_ifeii_X_b_joWZZh[ii[iY^Wd][i_dj^[^[_]^j0Z_Wc#
[j[hhWj_eZk[jeijWdZZ[di_joWdZ_ied[e\j^[cW_dZ_\\[h[dY[ili$ej^[hfefk#
bWj_edceZ[biikY^Wi]Wfi_p[eh]Wff^Wi[WffheWY^[i8eja_d[jWb$'/-($Dej[
j^Wjj^_icWa[ijh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi_dZ[f[dZ[dje\i_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djh[#
]_c[i"Wfh[YedZ_j_ed\ehj[ij_d]Z_\\[h[dj\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[i$
7h[bWj_l[boYecfb[nWdZd[m\_[bZ_ij^Wje\h[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]$Kd\ehjk#
dWj[boceijh[][d[hWj_edikhl[oil_ikWbboWii[iij^[h[][d[hWj_edi_jkWj_ed"m^_Y^
kikWbboh[ikbji_dijhed]boikX`[Yj_l[eh[l[dX_Wi[ZZWjWM_bZj'//+$?dh[Y[dj
o[Whih[][d[hWj_ed_dl[djeh_[i^Wl[X[[d[ijWXb_i^[ZXWi[Zedh[fheZkY_Xb[c[Wi#
kh[i ikY^ Wi Yekdj_d] `kl[d_b[ jh[[i eh c[Wikh_d] j^[ c[Wd ^[_]^j$ 7bj^ek]^
j^[i[\_hijij[fiWh[l[hofhec_i_d]m[ij_bbbWYa_d\ehcWj_ededh[f[Wj[Zh[][d[h#
Wj_ed[dkc[hWj_edim^_Y^Wh[_cfehjWdjje\khj^[hj[ijj^[_cfWYje\i_bl_YkbjkhWb
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[iedh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^$
Ed[e\j^[Y^Wbb[d]_d]_iik[ijecWa[jh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]j^[ehoWlW_bWXb[
jej^[[dZki[h_i_jib_dam_j^Z[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci:IIWdZ%ehWZefj_ede\
j^[lWh_ekij^[eh_[ijeif[Y_\_Y\eh[ijYecfWdoi_jkWj_edi$?dj^_iYedj[njj^[ZeY#
kc[djWj_ed WdZ ki[h#\h_[dZbo _cfb[c[djWj_ed _d W Yecfkj[h ie\jmWh[ eh Z[ce
fWYaW][_ie\_dj[h[ijX[YWki[]hemj^ceZ[biWh[dej`kijWd_cfehjWdjjeeb\eh
[dikh_d]ikijW_dWXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj1j^[oWh[Wbie_cfehjWdj\ehjhW_d_d]WdZ
[ZkYWj_ediej^Wjj^[[dZki[hi]W_dWYecfh[^[di_l[kdZ[hijWdZ_d]e\j^[hWd][
e\feii_Xb[i_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djefj_edi$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ )ÈGREATLYÈAPPRECIATEÈTHEÈCOMMENTSÈANDÈSUGGESTIONSÈTOÈTHISÈMANUSCRIPTÈ
BYÈ'EORGÈ+INDERMANNÈ0ETERÈ"IBERÈANDÈ"RUCEÈ-ICHIE
2EFERENCES
!SSMANNÈ%È&RANZÈ&È È6ORLËUFIGEÈ&ICHTEN
%RTAGSTAFELÈFàRÈ"AYERNÈ&ORSTWÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
"ELLAÈ)%È È!ÈNEWÈCOMPETITIONÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
"IBERÈ0È(ERLINGÈ(È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDERÈ6ERJàNGUNGSDYNAMIKÈALSÈ"ESTANDTEILÈVONÈEINZELBAU
MORIENTIERTENÈ 7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLENÈ 4AGUNGSBERICHTÈ DERÈ 3EKTIONÈ %RTRAGSKUNDEÈ DESÈ
$6&&!È*AHRESTAGUNGÈÈ
È-AIÈ3CHWARZBURGÈPPÈn
"IGINGÈ '3È $OBBERTINÈ -È È %VALUATIONÈ OFÈ COMPETITIONÈ INDICESÈ INÈ INDIVIDUALÈ TREEÈ GROWTHÈ
MODELSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
"OTKINÈ$"È*ANAKÈ*&È7ALLISÈ*2È È3OMEÈECOLOGICALÈCONSEQUENCESÈOFÈAÈCOMPUTERÈMODELÈOFÈ
FORESTÈGROWTHÈ*È%COLÈn
2EFERENCES '+
3PELLMANNÈ (È 7AGNERÈ 3È .AGLÈ *È 'UERICKEÈ -È 'RIESEÈ &È È )NÈ DERÈ 4RADITIONÈ STEHENDÈ NEUEÈ
7EGEÈ BESCHREITENDÈ
È 7ALDWACHSTUMS
KUNDLICHEÈ &ORSCHUNGÈ ANÈ DERÈ .IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ
&ORSTLICHENÈ6ERSUCHSANSTALTÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
3TAGEÈ !2È È 0ROGNOSISÈ MODELÈ FORÈ STANDÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ 53$!È &ORÈ 3ERVÈ 2ESÈ 0APÈ ).4
È
53$!È7ASHINGTONÈ$#ÈÈPP
3TERBAÈ(È È3INGLEÈSTEMÈMODELSÈFROMÈINVENTORYÈDATAÈWITHÈTEMPORARYÈPLOTSÈ-ITTÈ&ORSTLÈ"UN
DESVERSUCHSANSTALTÈ7IENÈn
3TERBAÈ(È-OSERÈ-È(ASENAUERÈ(È-ONSERUDÈ2!È È02/'.!53ÈEINÈABSTANDSUNABHËNGIGERÈ
7ACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈ FàRÈ UNGLEICHALTRIGEÈ -ISCHBESTËNDEÈ $EUTSCHERÈ 6ERBANDÈ &ORSTLICHEÈ
&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈnÈ3EKTIONÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈ%BERSWALDE"ERLINÈPPÈn
6ANÈ $EUSENÈ 0#È "IGINGÈ '3È È 34!'È AÈ STANDÈ GENERATORÈ FORÈ MIXEDÈ SPECIESÈ STANDSÈ 6ERSIONÈ
È2ESÈ.OTEÈÈ.ORTHERNÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ&ORESTÈ9IELDÈ#OOPERATIVEÈ$EPARTMENTÈOFÈ&ORESTRYÈANDÈ
2ESEARCHÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ"ERKELEYÈÈPP
6ONÈ'ADOWÈ+È(UIÈ'9È È-ODELLINGÈFORESTÈDEVELOPMENTÈ+LUWERÈ$ORDRECHTÈÈPP
7ENSELÈ ,#È +OEHLERÈ *2È È !È TREEÈ GROWTHÈ PROJECTIONÈ SYSTEMÈ FORÈ NORTHERNÈ #ALIFORNIAÈ CONI
FEROUSÈFORESTSÈ2ESÈ.OTEÈÈ.ORTHERNÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ&ORESTÈ9IELDÈ#OOPERATIVEÈ$EPARTMENTÈOFÈ
&ORESTRYÈANDÈ2ESEARCHÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ"ERKELEYÈÈPP
7IEDEMANNÈ%È È%RTRAGSTAFELNÈDERÈWICHTIGENÈ(OLZARTENÈBEIÈVERSCHIEDENERÈ$URCHFORSTUNGÈ
3CHAPERÈ(ANNOVERÈÈPP
7ILDTÈ2È È/PERATIONALITËTÈEINESÈ6ERJàNGUNGSAUFNAHMEVERFAHRENSÈ$IPLÈ!RBEITÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ
FàRÈ"ODENKKULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
7YKOFFÈ72È È!ÈBASALÈAREAÈINCREMENTÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈCONIFERSÈINÈTHEÈNORTHERNÈ2OCKYÈ
-OUNTAINSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
7YKOFFÈ72È#ROOKSTONÈ.,È3TAGEÈ!2È È5SERSÈGUIDEÈTOÈTHEÈ3TANDÈ0ROGNOSISÈ-ODELÈ53È&ORE
STRYÈ3ERVICEÈ'ENÈ4ECHÈ2EPÈ).4
È53$!È7ASHINGTONÈ$#ÈÈPP
#(!04%2È '/
%NDÈ5SERÈ.EEDSÈANDÈ2EQUIREMENTS
AedijWdj_dledJ[k\\[b'"I[XWij_Wd>[_d("CWh_`WdAejWh)"
;c_b_WF_djeFh[k^ib[h*"@WdWFkkcWbW_d[d+"F[j[hM[_d\khj[h,
!BSTRACTÈ &ORESTÈPRACTICEÈISÈABOUTÈMAKINGÈDECISIONSÈCONCERNINGÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈTHATÈ
WILLÈHAVEÈCONSEQUENCESÈFORÈAÈLONGÈTIMEÈ-ODELSÈOFÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈWEREÈFIRSTÈUSEDÈ
ASÈSIMPLEÈABSTRACTIONSÈOFÈSTANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈ4HEYÈWEREÈTHENÈADAPTEDÈTOÈSPECIFICÈMANAGE
MENTÈOBJECTIVESÈ.OWÈCHANGINGÈUSERÈNEEDSÈAREÈSHIFTINGÈTHEÈPREFERENCESÈOFÈFORESTÈPRACTICEÈ
FORÈFORESTÈMODELSÈFROMÈPUREÈTOÈMIXEDÈFORESTSÈFROMÈSTANDÈTOÈINDIVIDUALÈTREE
BASEDÈSILVICUL
TURALÈMEASURESÈANDÈFROMÈEVENÈAGEDÈTOÈUNEVENÈAGEDÈMANAGEMENTÈMETHODSÈ)NÈADDITIONÈ
CHANGINGÈGROWTHÈCONDITIONSÈCALLÈFORÈEVENÈMOREÈCUSTOMISABLEÈMODELSÈ4REEÈMODELSÈTRYÈTOÈ
TRANSCENDÈ THEÈ LIMITATIONSÈ OFÈ EARLIERÈ FORESTÈ GROWTHÈ MODELLINGÈ APPROACHESÈ BYÈ PREDICTINGÈ
INDIVIDUALÈTREEÈGROWTHÈWITHÈRESPECTÈTOÈCOMPETITIONÈWITHÈSURROUNDINGÈNEIGHBOURSÈTHEÈLOCALÈ
CANOPYÈSTRUCTUREÈANDÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITIONÈINSTEADÈOFÈDELIVERINGÈMEANÈSTANDÈVALUESÈ4HISÈ
REMARKABLEÈ SCIENTIFICÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ LEADSÈ TOÈ MOREÈ COMPLEXÈ MODELSÈ WITHÈ MOREÈ DETAILEDÈ
PREDICTIONSÈ 4OÈ FOCUSÈ ONÈ THEÈ NEEDSÈ OFÈ FORESTÈ PRACTICEÈ nÈ ESPECIALLYÈ INÈ THEÈ FIELDÈ OFÈ FORESTÈ
PLANNINGÈ SILVICULTURALÈ PROGRAMMESÈ ANDÈ MULTICRITERIALÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ nÈ THEÈ FOLLOWINGÈ
ESSENTIALÈATTRIBUTESÈOFÈTREEÈMODELSÈAREÈPROPOSEDÈAÈCLEARÈPURPOSEÈSPECIFICATIONÈAÈREASON
ABLEÈACCURACYÈOFÈTHEÈPREDICTEDÈVALUESÈANÈEASYÈINTEGRATIONÈINTOÈTHEÈENTERPRISEÈINFORMATIONÈ
FLOWÈANDÈCOMMUNICABILITYÈOFÈMODELÈRESULTSÈ!ÈCLEARÈDOCUMENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈMODELÈLIMITSÈTHEÈ
COMPREHENSIBILITYÈOFÈTHEÈSIMULATIONÈPROCESSÈANDÈUSER
FRIENDLYÈHANDLINGÈIMPROVEÈTHEÈTRUST
WORTHINESSÈOFÈTHEÈMODELSÈ!ÈSUCCESSFULÈEVOLUTIONÈOFÈTREEÈMODELSÈWILLÈAVOIDÈUSINGÈGROWTHÈ
SIMULATORSÈ ASÈ ALL
PURPOSEÈ TOOLSÈ BUTÈ ENSUREÈ THEÈ PARTICIPATIVEÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ PURPOSE
RELATEDÈCOMPONENTSÈANDÈTHEÈDEFINITIONÈOFÈPRACTICE
RELEVANTÈSIMULATIONÈSCENARIOS
' [#cW_b0aedijWdj_d$j[k\\[b6\ehij$Xmb$Z[
( <ehijb_Y^[L[hikY^i# kdZ <ehiY^kd]iWdijWbj 8WZ[d#Mhjj[cX[h]"Medd^WbZ[ijhW[ *" -/'&&
<h[_Xkh]"=[hcWdo
) :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijhoWdZH[d[mWXb[<eh[ijH[iekhY[i"8_ej[Y^d_YWb<WYkbjo"L[YdWfej.)"
'&&&B`kXb`WdW"Ibel[d_W
* :[fWhjc[djZ[CWj[cWj_YW"?dij_jkjeIkf[h_ehZ[7]hedec_W"Kd_l[hi_ZWZ[J[Yd_YWZ[B_iXeW"
JWfWZWZW7`kZW"')*/#&'-B_iXeW"Fehjk]Wb
+ ;khef[Wd9ecc_ii_edÄ:=@H9"?>9F"I[Yjeh0=CEÄ<eeZWdZ;dl_hedc[dj"JF))'"('&(&
?ifhWLW"?jWbo
, 7kijh_Wd<[Z[hWb<eh[ij9ecfWdo"Fkcc[h]Wii['&Ä'(")&&(Fkha[hiZeh\"7kijh_W
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
(& #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
È
(ISTORICÈ$EVELOPMENT
<eh[ij[hid[[ZceZ[bWffheWY^[ijeikffehjj^[_hZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]$7ceZ[b
_dj^_iYedj[nj_iZ[\_d[ZWiWi_cfb_\_[Zf_Yjkh[e\h[Wbioij[ci"m^_Y^_dYbkZ[ij^[
YhkY_Wb[b[c[djiWdZ_dj[hWYj_edie\j^[ioij[c8eii[b'//*$<eh[ijhoWiWfhe#
\[ii_ed[c[h][Ziec[(&&Ä)&&o[WhiW]e"m^[d_dlWijWh[Wij^hek]^ekj;khef[
\eh[ijim[h[[nY[ii_l[boel[hki[ZWdZZ[lWijWj[Z$?dehZ[hjeh[Xk_bZWdZcWdW][
\eh[iji" Z[Y_i_edi ^WZ je X[ cWZ[ XWi[Z ed h[b_WXb[ iekhY[i e\ _d\ehcWj_ed WdZ
fh[Z_Yj_edie\]hemj^WdZo_[bZfhel_Z[ZXoceZ[bi$
Ed[ e\ j^[ \_hij ceZ[b WffheWY^[i ki[Z mWi j^Wj e\ o_[bZ h[]kbWj_ed Xo leb#
kc[ÆCWii[d\WY^m[haÇZ[l[bef[ZXo=$B$>Whj_]_d'-/+>Whj_]'-/+$>[Z_#
l_Z[Zj^[hejWj_edj_c[_dje(&#o[Whf[h_eZi$IjWdZim[h[WbbeYWj[Zjej^[f[h_eZi
WYYehZ_d]jej^[_h_dZ_l_ZkWbW]["j^kiijh_l_d]\ehWd[gkWbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\Wbbem#
WXb[Ykj$J^[fej[dj_WbYkjj_d]lebkc[mWi[ij_cWj[ZijWdZXoijWdZ$J^[j^[eh[j#
_YWbceZ[bX[^_dZj^_ih[]kbWj_edc[j^eZmWij^[_Z[We\Wie#YWbb[ZdehcWb\eh#
[ijeh_Z[Wb\eh[ij"bWj[hZ[l[bef[ZXo>kdZ[i^W][d'.(,If[_Z[b'/-($7dehcWb
\eh[ij_iY^WhWYj[h_p[ZXofkh[[l[d#W][ZijWdZie\[gkWbWh[W[$]$'^W\hecWd
W][e\ed[jej^[[dZe\j^[hejWj_edf[h_eZ$7bbijWdZi]hemm_j^j^[iWc[o_[bZ
YbWiiWdZWijWdZZ[di_jo_dZ[ne\ed[$J^[h[Wh[deZ_ijkhXWdY[iikY^Wiijehci"
idem" [jY$ J^[ ikijW_dWXb[ WddkWb WbbemWXb[ Ykj _i h[Wb_p[Z Xo Yb[Wh Ykjj_d] j^[
ijWdZ"m^[d_j^Wi\kb\_bb[Z_jihejWj_edj_c[$
>$9ejjW_d'.&*_djheZkY[ZWo_[bZh[]kbWj_edc[j^eZXoWh[WÆ<bY^[d\WY^#
m[haÇ$7h[Wi e\ j^[ iWc[ i_p[ m[h[ WbbeYWj[Z je f[h_eZi$ :k[ je kd[l[d ijWdZ
W][ WdZ Z[di_jo" ikijW_dWX_b_jo e\ Ykjj_d]i mWi j^[eh[j_YWbbo edbo WY^_[l[Z W\#
j[hj^[i[YedZhejWj_ed$Ed[WZlWdjW][e\j^[c[j^eZmWij^[[ijWXb_i^c[dje\W
ijhkYjkh[e\j^[\eh[ij_df[hcWd[djYecfWhjc[dji$IkXi[gk[djbo"j^[jmec[j^#
eZim[h[YecX_d[Z_dj^[o_[bZh[]kbWj_edioij[cXoW][YbWii[iÆ7bj[habWii[d#
c[j^eZ[Ç$?jZ_\\[hi\hecj^[h[]kbWj_edioij[cXoWh[Wj^hek]^j^[ijWdZ#h[bWj#
[ZfbWdd_d]e\fheZkYj_edWdZkj_b_pWj_ed$
È
9IELDÈ4ABLES
J^[ c[j^eZ e\ o_[bZ h[]kbWj_ed Xo W][ YbWii ^Wi Zec_dWj[Z \eh[ij cWdW][#
c[djfbWdd_d]\ehceh[j^Wd'&&o[Whi$?jmWiYhkY_Wbboikffehj[ZXoj^[Z[l[b#
efc[dje\o_[bZjWXb[i$O_[bZjWXb[iYWdWbieX[Yedi_Z[h[ZWiceZ[bifh[Z_Yj_d]
j^[]hemj^e\\eh[ijiWij^[oi_ckbWj[j^[Z[l[befc[dje\WijWdZel[hj_c[$Ie\Wh"
j^[oh[fh[i[djWj^[ehoe\ijWdZ]hemj^"ceijbofkh[ijWdZie\WY[hjW_djh[[if[#
Y_[i"i_j[YbWiiWdZo_[bZb[l[bAkhj^'//*$J^[oZ[f[dZedWY[hjW_djh[Wjc[dj
e\WijWdZj^hek]^ekj_jiZ[l[befc[djel[hj_c[$O_[bZjWXb[iYec[_djWXkbWheh
]hWf^_Y\ehc$J^[okikWbboi^emj^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[\ebbem_d][b[c[dji0
v ijWdZij[cdkcX[h1
v ijWdZXWiWbWh[W1
v ijWdZc[WdZ_Wc[j[h1
v Wl[hW][ehjef^[_]^j1
È #HANGINGÈ5SERÈ.EEDS ('
v \ehc\WYjeh1WdZ
v ijWdZlebkc[$
7ZZ_j_edWbboj^[oZ[f_Yj0
v [nf[Yj[Zj^_dd_d]lebkc[el[hj^[d[nj'&#o[Whf[h_eZ1
v WddkWb_dYh[c[dje\XWiWbWh[W1
v Ykhh[djWddkWb_dYh[c[dj"c[Wdlebkc[_dYh[c[dj"[jY$FheZWd'/,+$
O_[bZjWXb[ieh_]_dWbboh[fh[i[dj[Zj^[Wl[hW][Z[l[befc[dje\WdehcWbeh
_Z[Wb[l[dW][Zfkh[ijWdZ$BWj[hj^[om[h[YedijhkYj[ZkdZ[hY[hjW_djh[Wjc[dj
iY[dWh_ei$J^[\_hijo_[bZjWXb[im[h[Z[l[bef[Z_dj^['/j^WdZ[Whbo(&j^Y[djk#
h_[iXo>kdZ[i^W][d"IY^mWffWY^"=[^h^WhZjWdZM_[Z[cWdd"bWj[h\ebbem[ZXo
7iicWdd"<hWdp"IY^eX[hWdZ8hWZb[o"Wced]ej^[hi$J^[oWh[\ehj^[ceijfWhj
XWi[Zeddkc[hekiWdZh[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[djie\[nf[h_c[djWbfbejij_c[i[#
h_[i$J^_i\WYji^emi^emYeijbo_j_ijeZ[l[befWdZYedijhkYjWZ[gkWj[jWXb[i$
?\j^[oWh[XWi[ZedZWjWZ[h_l[Z\hecbWh][Wh[WiYeccedo_[bZjWXb[iWZ_i#
WZlWdjW][cWoX[j^Wjj^[oZedejWffbojeY[hjW_dh[]_ediZk[jeZ_\\[h[djo_[bZ
b[l[bi_dZ_\\[h[dji_j[i"]hemj^ped[i"[jY$FheZWd'/,+$9edjhWh_bo"h[]_edWbjW#
Xb[icWoik\\[h\hecWbWYae\ijWj_ij_YWbWYYkhWYo"Wij^[dkcX[he\fbeji_ib_c_j#
[ZWdZj^[lWh_WdY[X[jm[[dj^[fbeji_il[ho^_]^$
O_[bZjWXb[iWh[ij_bbWffb_[Zj^hek]^ekj;khef["WdZWh[cW_dboki[Z\ehi[#
Ykh_d]ikijW_dWX_b_jo$J^[oWh[kikWbboWffb_[ZWiWd_dijhkc[djjei_ckbWj[j^[
Z[l[befc[dje\ijWdZiZkh_d]j^[fheY[iie\meha_d]ekjW\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj
fbWd dehcWbbo \eh W f[h_eZ e\ j[d eh ceh[ o[Whi$O_[bZ jWXb[i Wh[ ][d[hWbbo Z_#
l_Z[Z_djeZ_\\[h[djjWXb[i\eh[WY^i_j[YbWii\ehZ_\\[h[djjh[[if[Y_[i"e\j[d_dW
Yecf[dZ_kce\jWXb[iWffb_[ZXoWY[hjW_d\eh[ijemd[heh\eh[ijWZc_d_ijhWj_ed
CBH'//)W$
J^[b_c_jWj_edie\o_[bZjWXb[iWh[eXl_eki$DejedboWh[j^[ojh[[if[Y_[iif[#
Y_\_YWdZedboYedijhkYj[Z\ehWY[hjW_df[h_eZe\j_c[Zkh_d]j^[b_\[YoYb[e\W
ijWdZ"XkjWbiej^[oe\j[dZedejh[\[hjej^[WYjkWbijWj[e\j^[ijWdZj^[oWh[Wf#
fb_[Zje$<khj^[hceh["j^[oZedejZ[f_YjZ_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$I[l[h#
WbWkj^ehi^Wl[h[Y[djbogk[ij_ed[Zj^[ki[\kbd[iie\o_[bZjWXb[iFh[jpiY^'//(1
IY^f\[h[jWb$'//*"'//-1If_[Ya[h[jWb$'//,$
È
#HANGINGÈ5SERÈ.EEDS
<ehWbed]j_c["o_[bZjWXb[im[h[Wffhefh_Wj[_dijhkc[dji\ehj^[i_ckbWj_ed
e\\eh[ijijWdZi$>em[l[h"Zkh_d]h[Y[djZ[YWZ[i"j^[d[[Zie\ki[hi^Wl[Y^Wd][Z$
<ekhcW_d[b[c[dji^Wl[jh_]][h[Zj^_iZ[l[befc[dj0
v WikXijWdj_Wbi^_\j\hecj^[fh[\[h[dY[e\fkh[jec_n[ZijWdZi1
v½ W Y^Wd]_d] jh[Wjc[dj e\ ijWdZi m^_Y^ Z_\\[hi i_]d_\_YWdjbo je j^[ jh[Wjc[dj
ceijo_[bZjWXb[iWh[XWi[Zed1
v WY^Wd][\hec[l[dW][Zjekd[l[dW][ZcWdW][c[djc[j^eZi1
v Y^Wd]_d]]hemj^YedZ_j_edi_d;khef[$
(( #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
J^[i[Y^Wd][i^Wl[b[ZjeWh[Z[\_d_j_edWdZ[dbWh][c[dje\j^[YedY[fje\
ikijW_dWX_b_joWiZ[iYh_X[ZXoj^[Yh_j[h_WWdZ_dZ_YWjehi"demWZWoim_Z[boWYY[fj#
[ZWij^[XWi_ie\\eh[ijY[hj_\_YWj_edC9F<;(&&)$J^[i[Y^Wd][iWh[Wbieh[#
\b[Yj[Z_dj^[ceZ[hd\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfhe]hWcc[ie\bWh][\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[i
[$]$Ejje'//&1D_[Z[hiY^i_iY^[BWdZ[i\ehij[d'//($
È
0REFERENCEÈOFÈ-IXEDÈ3TANDS
;nf[h_[dY[el[hh[Y[djZ[YWZ[i^Wii^emdj^Wj_dlWh_ekiYWi[i"fkh[ijWdZi
Zedej\kb\_bj^[d[[Zie\\eh[ijemd[hiWdZieY_[joWdoceh[If_[Ya[h[jWb$(&&*$
J^[cW`ehWiikcfj_ed_ij^Wjj^[oWh[ikX`[Yjje^_]^[h[Yebe]_YWblkbd[hWX_b_jo
WdZ^_]^[h[Yedec_Yh_ia$J^[\ebbem_d]ijWj[c[djiikccWh_i[j^[cW_dh[Wiedi
\ehj^[h_i_d]fh[\[h[dY[e\c_n[ZijWdZi$
7ced]j^[[Yebe]_YWbh[Wiedi_ij^[YedY[hdj^Wj0
v j^[[ijWXb_i^c[dje\fkh[jh[[if[Y_[iijWdZi_d][d[hWbcWo_dYh[Wi[j^[h_ia
e\_di[Yj_d\[ijWj_edWdZ\kd]_WjjWYai<^h[h'//,18W_[h[jWb$(&&&1
v fkh[Yed_\[hijWdZie\j[dWh[ikffei[ZjeX[ceh[ikiY[fj_Xb[je^_]^Wjcei#
f^[h_YZ[fei_j_ed$;l_Z[dY[e\WYY[b[hWj[Zie_bWY_Z_\_YWj_edWdZie_bdkjh_[dj
beii[i[dZWd][hjh[[if[Y_[i[dh_Y^c[dj7k]kije[jWb$(&&($
C_n[Z\eh[ijib[WZje0
v Wceh[XWbWdY[Z_dfkjÄekjfkjXkZ][je\dkjh_[djim_j^_dWd[Yeioij[cWij^[
b_jj[he\Z[Y_Zkeki\eh[iji_iZ[Yecfei[Zceh[gk_Yaboj^Wdb_jj[he\Yed_\[h#
ekijh[[i1eh]Wd_Yh[i_Zk[iWh[dejWYYkckbWj[ZWjie_bikh\WY[iWdZh[b[Wi[e\
dkjh_[dji_i\Wij[hAb_ce[jWb$'//+1
v d_jhe][dbeii[im_j^i[[fW][mWj[hWh[h[ZkY[Z[if[Y_Wbbo_dD#iWjkhWj[Z[Ye#
ioij[ciWdZWY_Z_\_YWj_ede\ikh\WY[mWj[hi_ih[ZkY[Z>[_jp(&&&1
v j^[h[_iWd_cfhel[c[dj_dc_YheYb_cWj[1
v X_ebe]_YWbZ_l[hi_jofhel_Z[iWh]kc[dji\ehWjh[[if[Y_[i[dh_Y^c[djWij^[
\WkdWWdZ\behWYecfei_j_edWh[ceh[Z_l[hi[@[Z_Ya['//,1CWjj^[i'//.$
J^_i_cfhel[ij^[WZWfjWX_b_joe\[Yeioij[cijej^[eYYkhh[dY[e\Yb_cWj_Y[n#
jh[c[iWdZj^kih[ZkY[ij^[h_ia\ehmeeZfheZkYj_ed$?dYh[Wi_d]YedY[hdiWXekj
X_eZ_l[hi_joWdZWffh[Y_Wj_ede\j^[h[Yh[Wj_edWblWbk[ie\\eh[iji^Wl[b[ZjeWd
_dYh[Wi[Z fkXb_Y WdZ fh_lWj[ _dj[h[ij _d c_n[Z \eh[iji IY^hWcb WdZLebp (&&*$
>em[l[h"iec[[Yebe]_YWb[\\[Yji[_j^[hWh[dejo[jm[bbkdZ[hijeeZehZedej\kb#
boikffehjj^[WZlWdjW][ie\c_n[ZehXheWZb[Wl[Z\eh[ijiAkb^Wlo[jWb$(&&*$
7d[Yedec_YWh]kc[dj\eh[dh_Y^c[djm_j^ej^[hif[Y_[i_ij^[h_iae\^_]^
iWblW][Ykjj_d]ie\fkh[ijWdZie\j[dYedi_ij_d]e\DehmWoifhkY[ehIYejif_d[
edlWh_ekii_j[i$Fkh[\eh[iji[ijWXb_i^[Zed_dWffhefh_Wj[i_j[im_j^^_]^ijWdZ_d]
lebkc[e\j[d\WY[_dYh[Wi[ZiWblW][Ykjj_d]im_j^_dYh[Wi[ZW][YWki[ZXoijehc
:hek_d[Wk[jWb$(&&&$J^_i_i[if[Y_Wbbojhk[\ehi_j[ij^WjZedejWbbemj^[Z[#
l[befc[dje\WZ[[fheejioij[c$;l[dj^ek]^YWi[ijkZ_[ii^emWh[ZkY[Zfhe\#
_jWX_b_joe\\eh[ijiZkh_d]j^[_hf^Wi[e\Yedl[hi_ed\hec[l[dW][ZYed_\[hijWdZi
jekd[l[dW][Zc_n[ZijWdZie\DehmWoifhkY[WdZ;khef[WdX[[Y^@WYeXi[d[j
È #HANGINGÈ5SERÈ.EEDS ()
Wb$(&&*"Wd[Yedec_Yfh[\[h[dY[_ie\j[d]_l[djec_n[Z\eh[ijiZk[jej^[_h[n#
f[Yj[Z^_]^[h\b[n_X_b_jo_dh[WYj_d]jeikZZ[dY^Wd][i_dmeeZikffbo$D[l[hj^[#
b[ii"b_jjb[h[i[WhY^_iWlW_bWXb[edj^[Z[]h[[e\\b[n_X_b_joWdZ_jiYedi[gk[dY[\eh
Xki_d[ii[Yedeco"Wi\b[n_X_b_jocWoZ[f[dZedj^[jh[[if[Y_[iWdZj^[_hi^Wh[i
_dc_n[Z\eh[iji@WYeXi[d[jWb$(&&*$
J^[Wffb_YWj_ede\o_[bZjWXb[ijec_n[ZijWdZi^Wiiec[Z_iWZlWdjW][ii_dY[
j^[oWh[ceijboYedijhkYj[Z\ehj^[fkhfei[ie\fkh[ijWdZi$Ed[_cfehjWdjfheX#
b[c _i j^Wj Yecf[j_j_ed X[jm[[d Z_\\[h[dj jh[[i WdZ jh[[ if[Y_[i _i dej fhef[h#
boZ[Wbjm_j^$J^[\_hijc_n[ZijWdZo_[bZjWXb[im[h[Z[l[bef[Z[WhbobWijY[djk#
ho8edd[cWdd'/)/1M_[Z[cWdd'/*("Xkjm[h[h[`[Yj[ZXo\eh[ijfhWYj_Y["Wi
\eh[ij[hiZ_Zdej\_dZj^[_hif[Y_\_Yc_njkh[iik\\_Y_[djboh[fh[i[dj[Z_dj^[o_[bZ
jWXb[i[jj_d]i$
È
#HANGINGÈ4REATMENT
;Whboie#YWbb[ZdehcWbo_[bZjWXb[iWiikc[Zdei_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[djWjWbb
[$]$>Whj_]'-/+$M^[do_[bZjWXb[im[h[\_hijYedijhkYj[Z"j^[h[mWiWYecced
kdZ[hijWdZ_d] e\ ed[ cW_d jh[Wjc[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[ \eh W if[Y_\_Y jh[[ if[Y_[i" Wj
b[Wij_dWY[hjW_dh[]_edm^[h[j^[o_[bZjWXb[mWiikffei[ZjeX[Wffb_[Z$J^_i_i
dejd[Y[iiWh_boj^[YWi[Wdoceh[$:_\\[h[djemd[hfh[\[h[dY[iWdZcWha[jYed#
Z_j_edi"Z_\\[h[dji_j[iWdZieedZedejWbbem\ehed[i_d]b[jh[Wjc[djijhWj[]oe\
Wjh[[if[Y_[iWdoceh[$J^[Wffb_YWj_ede\ceZ[bi^Wijeh[WYjjej^[i[Y^Wd]#
_d]d[[Zi$
<eh [nWcfb[" j^[h[ _i W jh[c[dZeki Z_\\[h[dY[ X[jm[[d jh[Wjc[dji W_c[Z Wj
cWn_c_i_d]X_ecWiifheZkYj_edWdZed[fh[\[hh_d]j^[fheZkYj_ede\^_]^lWbk[
j_cX[h$E\Yekhi["j^[h[Wh[lWh_ekidkWdY[iX[jm[[dj^[i[jme[njh[c[Wbj[hdW#
j_l[i$Ed[e\j^[lWijboWffb_[Zjh[Wjc[djijecWdoijWdZi_iWie#YWbb[ZYhefjh[[
jh[Wjc[dj7X[jp'/.&1AbZja['//(17X[jpWdZAbZja[(&&($?j\Wlekhij^[ef#
j_cWbZ[l[befc[dje\W\kjkh[Yhefjh[[[Whbo_dWijWdZiW]["WdZj^kih[gk_h[i
^_]^j^_dd_d]j^hek]^ekjWbed][hj_c[\hWc[Zkh_d]ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj$Ej^[h
jh[Wjc[djfhe]hWcc[i\Wlekhbemj^_dd_d]i$J^[i[Z_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[djiYWddej
X[h[fh[i[dj[Z_ded[o_[bZjWXb[$M^[dYecfWh[Zm_j^ebZ[ho_[bZjWXb[i_jYWd
X[ijWj[Zj^WjceZ[hdijWdZjh[Wjc[djWbbemi\ehWd[Whb_[hW][e\\_dWb^Whl[ij#
_d]$Jh[[ih[WY^j^[_hjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h[Whb_[hj^Wdh[fh[i[dj[Z_debZ[ho_[bZjWXb[i$
J^[h[Wh[Y[hjW_dboceZ[hdo_[bZjWXb[i[$]$7iicWddWdZ<hWdp'/,)1M[da[j
Wb$'/.+1BeYaem'//+"'//.\ehh[]_ediWdZjh[[if[Y_[ij^WjZ[f_YjijWdZ]hemj^
fhef[hbo"Xkjm_j^Y^Wd]_d]jh[Wjc[djiWYYehZ_d]jej^[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i
e\\eh[ijemd[hi"j^[_h\b[n_X_b_jo_ib_c_j[Z$
È
#HANGEÈFROMÈ%VEN
!GEDÈTOÈ5NEVEN
!GEDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ-ETHODS
I[l[hWbWif[Yjie\ckbj_\kdYj_edWb\eh[ijhoik]][ijWi^_\j\hec[l[d#W][Zje
kd[l[d#W][ZcWdW][c[djc[j^eZi$KdZ[hdWjkhWbYedZ_j_edi"m_j^ekjj^[_dj[h#
(* #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
\[h[dY[e\cWd"cWdo\eh[iji_d;khef["[if[Y_WbboY[djhWb;khef["mekbZYecfh_i[
e\WfWjY^mehae\icWbb]hekfie\ceh[ehb[iied[W][H[cc[hj'//'1CWo[h
'//(1Aehf[b'//+$J^_ih[\[hijej^[ZodWc_Yie\dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ede\\eh[iji
_dj^_ih[]_ed$8_]YWjWijhef^[iWh[hWj^[hi[bZecm_j^_d;khef[Wd\eh[ijYedZ_#
j_edi"Wi_Z[\hecj^[if[Y_Wbi_jkWj_ede\j^[Xeh[Wb\eh[iji_dIYWdZ_dWl_WAehf_#
bW^j_(&&($7Ybei[#je#dWjkh[WffheWY^XheWZboWYY[fj[ZWced]\eh[ij[hi_dY[d#
jhWb;khef[Yef_[ij^[dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_edfWjj[hdiWdZ_dj[]hWj[i_jWYj_l[bo_d#
je\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$
7dej^[hh[Wied\ehj^[Y^Wd][jeWceh[kd[l[dW][ZcWdW][c[dj_iijWdZ
ijWX_b_jo$ IjWdZ ijWX_b_jo ^[h[ _i c[Wdj Wi j^[ WX_b_jo e\ ijWdZi je m_j^ijWdZ j^[
\ehY[ie\m_dZWdZjeZ[\o_di[Yj_d\[ijWj_edi"[jY$7^_]^[hm_j^_d#ijWdZZ_l[hi_#
jo_djh[[i_p[h[ZkY[ij^[h_iae\bWh][#iYWb[iWd_jWhoYkjiW\j[hXWhaX[[jb[ekj#
Xh[Wai$E\Yekhi["ej^[hYWjWijhef^_Y[l[djiikY^WiijehciZedejb[Wl[kd[l[d
W][Z\eh[ijikdZWcW][Z"Xkjj^[oWh[X[b_[l[ZjeX[ceh[ijWXb[X[YWki[Wm_dZ#
j^hem[l[djYWddejXbemel[hlWijWh[Wie\kd[l[dW][ZijWdZi$J^[_h[\\[YjiWh[
_dj[hhkfj[ZWiWh[ikbje\j^[fWjY^mehaijWdZijhkYjkh[$;nf[h_c[djim_j^<eh[ij
=7B;Im_dZh_iaceZ[biWdZi_jaWifhkY[ijWdZiWiZ[iYh_X[ZXoCWied(&&(
^Wl[h[Y[djboikffehj[Zj^[[nf[h_[dY[e\\eh[ijemd[hij^WjedceZ[hWj[bom_dZ#
[nfei[Zi_j[i"_hh[]kbWhijWdZiWh[ceh[m_dZijWXb[j^WdYedl[dj_edWbboj^_dd[Z
h[]kbWhijWdZi$>em[l[h"edi^[bj[h[ZWdZ^[Wl_bom_dZ#[nfei[Zi_j[ideZ_\\[h#
[dY[mWi\ekdZ$
Kd[l[dW][Z\eh[ijiYWhhoj^[[Yedec_Yefj_ede\Wbbem_d][WY^i_d]b[jh[[je
h[WY^_ji_dZ_l_ZkWbcWjkh_jo$J^_ih[ikbji_dW^_]^[hhWj[e\h[jkhd$D[l[hj^[b[ii"
Wh[ZkY[Zfhe\_jWX_b_joe\\eh[ijiWjj^[jhWdi_j_edf^Wi[X[jm[[d[l[dW][ZWdZ
kd[l[dW][ZijhkYjkh[i^WijeX[jWa[d_djeWYYekdj@WYeXi[d[jWb$(&&*$
9b[Whbo"j^[h[_iW^_]^[hX_eZ_l[hi_jo_dijWdZim_j^ceh[ijhkYjkhWb[b[c[dji$
7d [nj[di_l[ Z[iYh_fj_ed e\ j^[ _cfWYj e\ j^[ Yedl[hi_ed jemWhZi kd[l[d W][Z
cWdW][c[dj c[j^eZi ed Z_l[hi_jo Wif[Yji _i ]_l[d Xo lWh_eki Wkj^ehi _d W b_ij
Yecf_b[ZXoIf_[Ya[h[jWb$(&&*$
?j_i_cfeii_Xb[je\kbboZ[iYh_X[kd[l[dW][ZijWdZiki_d]o_[bZjWXb[i$8oZ[\#
_d_j_ed"o_[bZjWXb[iWh[YedijhkYj[Zjei^emWl[hW][lWbk[iikY^WiWl[hW][ij[c
dkcX[h"Wl[hW][^[_]^jehWl[hW][lebkc[\_]kh[i$I_dY[kd[l[dW][ZijWdZiYed#
i_ij e\ jh[[i e\ W ^_]^ lWh_Wj_ed _d jh[[ Z_c[di_edi WdZ ^[_]^ji" Wl[hW][ lWbk[i
Zedejfhel_Z[Wki[\kbZ[iYh_fj_ed_dehZ[hjeikffehjZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]_d\eh#
[ijfhWYj_Y[$
È
#HANGINGÈ'ROWTHÈ#ONDITIONS
H[Y[dj fkXb_YWj_edi i^em j^Wj ]hemj^ YedZ_j_edi \eh jh[[i _d ;khef[ ^Wl[
Y^Wd][Z i_]d_\_YWdjbo Zkh_d] j^[ bWij Z[YWZ[i A[da '//'" '//)1 If_[Ya[h [j Wb$
'//,1 AWh`WbW_d[d [j Wb$ '///$ 7bj^ek]^ j^[ c[j^eZi Wffb_[Z _d i[l[hWb ijkZ#
_[ilWh_[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[ZWjWWlW_bWXb["ceijijkZ_[ii^em[Zj^[iWc[][d[hWb
jh[dZ0i_j[fheZkYj_l_jo^Wi_dYh[Wi[ZedcWdoi_j[i$7d_dYh[Wi_d]]hemj^jh[dZ
^WiX[[deXi[hl[Z_dj^[iekj^[hdh[]_edie\dehj^[hd;khef["_dceijh[]_edi
e\Y[djhWb;khef[WdZ_diec[fWhjie\iekj^[hd;khef[If_[Ya[h[jWb$'//,$?j
È 0URPOSESÈOFÈ-ODERNÈ4REEÈ-ODELS (+
_idejfeii_Xb[je_Z[dj_\oWdoed[\WYjehWiX[_d]ieb[boh[ifedi_Xb[\eh_dYh[Wi#
_d]]hemj^jh[dZi$J^[h[_iWc_njkh[e\i[l[hWbWif[Yji"ikY^Wi\eh[ijcWdW][#
c[dj" bWdZ ki[ ^_ijeho" dWjkhWb Z_ijkhXWdY[i WdZ Yb_cWj[" _dYbkZ_d] Wjceif^[h#
_YZ[fei_j_ed$;l[dj^ek]^Y^Wd]_d]]hemj^YedZ_j_ediYekbZWbieX[_dj[]hWj[Z
_dijWdZ]hemj^ceZ[bi"j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bb_d]WffheWY^i[[cije
X[ceh[\b[n_Xb[m_j^h[if[Yjjej^[i[Y^Wd][i$?dYedjhWijjeo_[bZjWXb[ij^[oWh[
ceh[Yedl[d_[djje^WdZb[$
CeZ[hd\eh[ijcWdW][c[djkikWbbo_dj[di_\_[ij[dZ_d]"j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij#
_d]h[]_c[iWdZj^ki_d\bk[dY[ii_j[fheZkYj_l_joXoWbj[h_d]dkjh_[djYoYb_d]Wi
m[bbWiYecf[j_j_ed\ehb_]^jWdZmWj[h$If[Y_[iYecfei_j_edcWo^Wl[[\\[Yjied
j^[heejioij[c"b_jj[hgkWb_joWdZdkjh_[djijehW][$7bie\[hj_b_i_d]"ie_bfh[fWhW#
j_edWdZj^[Y^e_Y[e\jh[[if[Y_[iWdZ%eh][d[j_Yi[b[Yj_edYWd^Wl[fei_j_l[[\#
\[YjiWdZ_dYh[Wi[]hemj^edcWdoi_j[i8edd[WkWdZDoi'///$?j_il[ho_cfeh#
jWdjjeh[Ye]d_i[j^WjfhWYj_YWb\eh[ijhoel[hj^[bWij(&&o[Whi^Wi^[bf[Zjeel[h#
Yec[ j^[ d[]Wj_l[ [\\[Yji e\ fh[l_eki bWdZ ki[$ CWdo i_j[i m[h[ Z[lWijWj[Z Zk[
je[nj[di_l[b_jj[hhWa_d]"]hWp_d]"\ehW]_d]WdZfWijkh_d]Wim[bbWikdYedjhebb[Z
el[hki[e\j_cX[h[njhWYj_ed=bWjp[b'///$<eh[ijcWdW][c[dj^Wi^[bf[Z_dh[#
ijeh_d]ie_biWdZel[hYec_d]j^[ZWcW][ie\[Whbo[nY[ii_l[bWdZki[$DWjkhWbZ_i#
jkhXWdY[i"ikY^Wiijehc"_di[Yji"f[iji"\_h[iehZhek]^ji"cWo^Wl[[\\[Yjiedi_j[
fheZkYj_l_joWdZ%ehYecf[j_j_edWjb[Wij\ehWY[hjW_df[h_eZe\j_c[$7jceif^[h#
_YZ[fei_j_ede\ikbf^kh"d_jhe][dWdZeped[Wbj[hi_j[fheZkYj_l_jo_dcWdoh[#
if[Yji$7ZZ_j_edWbboj^[_dYh[Wi[ZYedj[dje\9E(_dj^[W_h_ied[e\i[l[hWb\WYjehi
h[ifedi_Xb[\ehY^Wd]_d]]hemj^YedZ_j_edidejX[_d]h[fh[i[dj[Z_dcWdoo_[bZ
jWXb[i9Wdd[bb'///$7iceZ[hdi_bl_Ykbjkh[j[dZiceh[WdZceh[jemWhZ_dZ_#
l_ZkWbjh[[cWdW][c[djioij[ci"jh[[ceZ[biWh[fh[\[hh[Zj^Wj _dj[]hWj[ceh[
j^Wd`kij]hemj^WdZo_[bZWif[Yji"[$]$_d\ehcWj_ededdkjh_[djYoYb_d]"YWhXed
XWbWdY[ehZ_l[hi_jo$
7ii^emd_dj^[\ekhi[Yj_ediWXel["ceZ[hdcWdW][c[dje\Yedj[cfehWho
\eh[ij[Yeioij[cih[gk_h[iWm_Z[hif[Yjhkce\lWh_WXb[iZk[jej^[Y^Wd]_d]Z[#
cWdZi e\ ki[hi" WdZ j^[ \eh[ijiÉ _dYh[Wi[Z Z_l[hi_jo$ J^_i YWd edbo X[ ^WdZb[Z
m^[dki_d]ceh[Yecfb[nYecfkj[h_i[ZfheY[ii[i$7fWhj\hecjh[[WdZijWdZWj#
jh_Xkj[iikY^Wi]hemj^"Wiiehjc[dj"o_[bZWdZ\_dWdY_WbY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"ej^[h[Y#
ebe]_YWb"[Yedec_YWdZieY_e#[Yedec_YlWh_WXb[iWh[X[Yec_d]ceh[_cfehjWdj"
m^_Y^"_dj^[\kjkh["i^ekbZX[jWa[d_djeWYYekdj_d\eh[ij]hemj^Z[iYh_fj_edWdZ
fh[Z_Yj_edFh[jpiY^(&&($
È
0URPOSESÈOFÈ-ODERNÈ4REEÈ-ODELS
<eh cWdo o[Whi" jhWZ_j_edWb ijWdZ ceZ[bi _d j^[ \ehc e\ o_[bZ jWXb[i ^Wl[
i[hl[Z\eh[ijho_dZ[iYh_X_d]WdZfh[Z_Yj_d]\eh[ij]hemj^$J^[_hb_c_jWj_edi^Wl[
X[[db_ij[ZWXel[$El[hh[Y[djZ[YWZ[ij^[h[^WiX[[dWikXijWdj_WbZ[l[befc[dj
_dj^[\_[bZe\\eh[ij]hemj^iY_[dY[WdZceZ[bb_d]$Ed[e\j^[ceij_cfehjWdj
ij[fimWij^[_Z[WjedejceZ[bWl[hW][lWbk[ie\fkh["[l[dW][ZijWdZi"Xkjje
ijkZoj^[]hemj^e\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iWdZj^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\j^[_hZ[l[befc[djm_j^
h[if[YjjeYecf[j_j_ede\j^[ikhhekdZ_d]jh[[i$IkY^ceZ[biWh[YWbb[Zi_d]b[jh[[
(, #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
ceZ[bi$7l[hW][lWbk[ie\ijWdZiWh[eXjW_d[ZedboXoWZZ_d]kfj^[lWbk[ie\j^[
i_d]b[jh[[i$?dj^_imWo_j_ifeii_Xb[jefh[Z_Yjj^[]hemj^e\YecX_dWj_edie\Z_\#
\[h[djjh[[if[Y_[iWdZW][i$J^[Y^Wd][\hecWl[hW][lWbk[iWiki[Z_do_[bZjW#
Xb[ijemWhZiWi_d]b[jh[[Wii[iic[djcWhaiWfWhWZ_]cY^Wd][_d\eh[ij]hemj^
fhe]dei_i>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&($7iijWj[ZWXel["j^_ih[\[hiX[jj[h
jeWjh[Wjc[dje\c_n[ZWdZkd[l[dW][ZijWdZi$Ceh[el[h"Wbj[hdWj_l[jh[Wjc[dj
ijhWj[]_[iYWdX[Z[f_Yj[ZWdZYecfWh[Z$
;l[d ie" _j _i h[Ye]d_i[Z j^Wj j^[h[ ^Wi X[[d W h[cWhaWXb[ Z[l[befc[dj _d
ijWdZ#h[bWj[ZceZ[bb_d]jee$?j^WijeX[h[c[cX[h[Zj^Wjj^[ceZ[bb_d]e\h[f#
h[i[djWj_l[jh[[im_j^i_c_bWhY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiW]["^[_]^j"[jY$_iWdWbj[hdWj_l[_d
ehZ[hjeWle_Ziec[e\j^[i^ehjYec_d]ie\YbWii_YWbijWdZceZ[biled=WZem
(&&*$Kfj_bbdemikY^ceZ[bi^Wl[dej\ekdZm_Z[ifh[WZWffb_YWj_ed_d;khef[$
?j_i\ehj^_ih[Wiedj^Wjj^[oWh[dejYedi_Z[h[ZWdo\khj^[h_dj^_iY^Wfj[h$
<hecj^[fe_dje\l_[me\fhWYj_YWb\eh[ijho"ceZ[hdjh[[ceZ[bi^Wl[j^h[[
XWi_Y\kdYj_edi0
'$ 7i^ehj#WdZc[Z_kc#j[hc\kdYj_ed_dehZ[hje[d^WdY[ikijW_dWX_b_joYedjheb
WdZ%ehj^[Y^e_Y[e\Wbj[hdWj_l[\eh[ijef[hWj_edi$J^[o[dWXb[j^[gkWdj_\_YW#
j_ede\Ykhh[djijWj[WdZfbWdd[ZjWh][jlWbk[ie\ijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"]hekfi
e\ijWdZiehlWbk[ie\[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bXoi_ckbWj_ede\_dl[djehoZWjW$
($ 7 bed]#j[hc ijhWj[]_Y \kdYj_ed" Wi j^[o ikffehj j^[ Z[l[befc[dj" j[ij WdZ
YecfWh_ied e\ d[m i_bl_YkbjkhWb jh[Wjc[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i WdZ j^[_h [Yedec_Y
WdZ[Yebe]_YWbYedi[gk[dY[i$
)$ 7jhW_d_d]\kdYj_edm_j^j^[fkhfei[e\l_ikWb_i_d]j^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\lWh#
_ekief[hWj_ediWdZjh[Wjc[djWbj[hdWj_l[i\ehZ[Y_i_edcWa[hi"ej^[hijWa[#
^ebZ[hiWdZj^[fkXb_Y$
?dj^[\ebbem_d][nWcfb[i"iec[Wffb_YWj_edie\jh[[ceZ[bi_dfhWYj_YWb\eh#
[ijhoWh[Z[iYh_X[Z$
È
4REEÈ-ODELSÈINÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ0LANNING
JhWZ_j_edWb\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfbWdd_d]_ijeZWoij_bbm_Z[boXWi[ZedWl[h#
W][lWbk[iZ[h_l[Z\heco_[bZjWXb[i$7h_i_d]dkcX[he\\eh[ijemd[hiWdZ\eh#
[ijWZc_d_ijhWj_edij^ek]^^Wl[i^_\j[ZjemWhZiioij[cWj_YiWcfb_d]c[j^eZi_d
ehZ[hjeeXjW_dX[jj[h_d\ehcWj_eded]hem_d]ijeYaWdZ_jiijhkYjkh[$H[f[Wj[Z
_dl[djeh_[iWZZ_j_edWbbocWa[ZWjWed]hemj^WdZo_[bZWim[bbWi^Whl[ij[Zleb#
kc[WlW_bWXb[$Iec[\eh[ijemd[hi^Wl[Wbed]jhWZ_j_ede\]Wj^[h_d]ioij[cWj_Y
iWcfb_d]ZWjW8YacWdd(&&*$J^ki"[l[dm_j^ekjj^[Wffb_YWj_ede\jh[[ceZ#
[bi"j^[XWi_i\ehZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]_i_cfhel[Zi_cfboXoj^[\WYjj^Wjh[Wb_dl[d#
jeholWbk[iWh[ademd"m^_Y^cWoZ_\\[hgk_j[ikXijWdj_Wbbo\hecj^[Wl[hW][lWb#
k[ie\o_[bZjWXb[i$
<khj^[h _cfhel[c[dj YWd X[ WY^_[l[Z m^[d ki_d] jh[[ ceZ[bi$ ?d j^[ ijWj[
\eh[ijWZc_d_ijhWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo"=[hcWdo"j^[Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dj jh[[
ceZ[b8M?D#Fhe_iki[Z8YacWdd(&&*$J^[Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djceZ[bI?B#
L7($(mWi\_hijWffb_[Z_dj^[Yecckd_joemd[Z\eh[ije\j^[Y_joe\JhWkdij[_d"
È 0URPOSESÈOFÈ-ODERNÈ4REEÈ-ODELS (-
8WlWh_WFh[jpiY^(&&'"WdZ_idemki[ZWiWijWdZWhZjeeb_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj
fbWdd_d] _d j^[ ijWj[ \eh[ij WZc_d_ijhWj_ed _d 8WlWh_W$ 8ej^ ceZ[b Wffb_YWj_edi
meha_dWi_c_bWhmWo$?dW\_hijij[fj^[ceZ[b_iWffb_[Z_dehZ[hjeh[ZkY[_dl[d#
jehoYeiji$?dl[djehoZWjWWh[ikffb[c[dj[Zki_d]\ehc\WYjehWdZlebkc[\kdY#
j_edic[Wikh[Zed[nf[h_c[djWbfbeji"XWi[Zedm^_Y^j^[jh[[ceZ[b_iYWb_XhWj#
[Z$?dWd[njij[f"j^[ceZ[b_iki[Zjefh[Z_YjZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^_\de
h[f[Wj[Z_dl[djehoZWjWWh[WlW_bWXb[$
?jmekbZX[jeej_c[Yedikc_d]WdZj^[h[mekbZX[dei_]d_\_YWdj]W_d_dfh[#
Z_Yj_edWYYkhWYo_\j^[ceZ[bi_ckbWj_edm[h[jeX[Wffb_[Zje[l[hoi_d]b[ijWdZ
icWbb[ijjh[Wjc[djkd_j$9edi[gk[djboj^[ceZ[bWffb_YWj_edYWdX[Wffb_[Zje
fWhifhejeje[nf[h_c[djWbijWdZij^Wjh[fh[i[djj^[jof_YWbi_jkWj_ede\W]hekf
e\ijWdZi$?dej^[hYWi[ij^[ijhWj[]_[iWh[XWi[ZedZWjWZ[h_l[Z\hecj[cfehWho
_dZ_YWjehijWdZie\icWbbi_p[&$'Ä&$)^W$
7dej^[hWbj[hdWj_l[_ijeWffboj^[i_ckbWj_edjeioij[cWj_YiWcfb_d]fbejie\
Wd[dj[hfh_i[ehm^Wj[l[hej^[hWh[Wj^[_dl[djehoZWjWWh[hW_i[Z\eh$;WY^iWc#
fb_d] fbej _i WbbeYWj[Z je ijhWjW e\ i_c_bWh fbej ijhkYjkh[ e\ WYjkWb ijWj[ WdZ \k#
jkh[ jh[Wjc[dj$ 7\j[h ^Wl_d] ][d[hWj[Z l_hjkWb ijWdZi \hec j^[ _dl[djeho ZWjW"
j^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yjij^[]hemj^e\[WY^l_hjkWbijWdZ$LWh_ekijh[Wjc[djijhWj[]_[i
h[jkhdhWj[e\j^_dd_d]i"j^_dd_d]_dj[di_jo"[jY$YWdX[Wffb_[Zki_d]j^[ceZ#
[b$J^[^Whl[ij[Zlebkc[e\j^[fbeji_iWZZ[Zkf"j^kifhel_Z_d]_d\ehcWj_eded
j^[WbbemWXb[Ykjf[hijhWjkc$J^[h[ikbj_d]ZWjWYWdX[b_da[Zje[Yedec_Yeh[Y#
ebe]_YWb WdWboi_i$ ?d j^_i mWo" j^[ Yedi[gk[dY[i e\ Wbj[hdWj_l[ kj_b_iWj_ed ijhWj[#
]_[i"ikY^Wij^[ekjfkj_dj[hcie\Yecc[hY_Wbj_cX[hWiiehjc[dji_djelebkc[
f[h i_p[ WdZ gkWb_jo YbWii" [jY$" YWd X[ Wii[ii[Z$7\j[h ^Wl_d] Z[\_d[Z Wffhefh_#
Wj[jh[Wjc[dji_d[WY^ijhWjkc"fh[Z_Yj_edie\[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bYWdX[YWhh_[Zekj$
?j_idemfeii_Xb[jeWii[iij^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\kj_b_iWj_ediY[dWh_eiedWijWdZ
ehijhWjWb[l[b$J^[[nj[di_ede\W]hemj^i_ckbWjeh\hecWi_d]b[ijWdZehi_d]b[
ijhWjkci_ckbWjehjeWd[dj[hfh_i[b[l[b_dm^_Y^WlWh_[joe\ijWdZiehijhWjWWh[
WdWboi[Zje][j^[h_iWd_cfehjWdjij[f_d_cfb[c[dj_d]jh[[ceZ[bi_dje\eh[ij
fhWYj_Y[$?j_ij^[a[oij[f_dj^[ki[e\jh[[ceZ[bb_d]WiWcWdW][c[djjeebed
WijhWj[]_Yb[l[b$
Dej edbo Wh[ j^[ h[ikbji _cfehjWdj _d j[hci e\ WbbemWXb[ Ykj" [Yedec_Y \_]#
kh[i" [jY$" Xkj Wbie j^[o fhel_Z[ W j^ehek]^ WdWboi_i e\ j^[ fh[i[dj ijhkYjkh[ e\
j^[]hem_d]ijeYaXWi[Zed_dl[djehoZWjW$7ffbo_d]ceZ[bi_ckbWj_ediZ[ced#
ijhWj[iY^Wd][i_dZ[l[befc[djdejedboe\i[l[hWbekjfkjlWbk[i"XkjWbiem_j^h[#
if[Yjjej^[feii_Xb[Yedi[gk[dY[ijej^[Wcekdje\]hem_d]ijeYaWdZ_jiif[Y_\#
_YijhkYjkh[WdZYedi[gk[dY[i\ehWlWh_[joe\ej^[h\eh[ij\kdYj_edi$J^_i_i_c#
fehjWdj_dYedi_Z[h_d]lWh_ekiWif[Yjie\ikijW_dWX_b_jo$
7if[Y_\_Yijh[d]j^WdZj^[cW_d[cf^Wi_i_dWffbo_d]_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[bi
_ij^[YWbYkbWj_ede\jh[Wjc[djiY[dWh_ei_dijWdZij^WjZ_l[h][i_]d_\_YWdjbo\hec
j^[YedZ_j_edie\YbWii_YWbo_[bZjWXb[i$J^_i[if[Y_Wbbo^ebZi\ehc_n[Zehkd[l[d
W][ZijWdZi"Wim[bbWiikY^ijWdZim_j^W^_]^Z[l_Wj_edX[jm[[do_[bZjWXb[WdZ
eXi[hl[ZlWbk[i$J^[oWbiefhel_Z[WX[jj[hWii[iic[dje\j^[\kjkh[Z[l[befc[dj
e\^[Wl_boZWcW][ZijWdZiZk[je_di[Yji"ijehc"Zhek]^j"[jY$"Wim[bbWij^[_hh[#
WYj_edje\khj^[hi_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[dji$
(. #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
È
,ONG
4ERMÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ0RODUCTIONÈ0ROGRAMMES
CeZ[hdjh[[ceZ[biWh[Wbieki[ZjeWii[iij^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\Z_\\[h[djbed]#
j[hci_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[djfhe]hWcc[iFh[jpiY^(&&)$J^kij^[oi[hl[WiWd
_dijhkc[dj\ehijhWj[]_YZ[Y_i_ediedlWh_ekiifWj_Wbb[l[biijWdZ"cWdW][c[dj
ijhWjW"[dj[hfh_i["bWdZiYWf[:khiao(&&&1>Wd[m_da[b(&&'1Fh[jpiY^(&&($?j
^WijeX[WZc_jj[Z"^em[l[h"j^Wji_ckbWj_ediel[hWbed]f[h_eZe\j_c['&&o[Whi
eh bed][h ^Wl[ W fheXb[c m_j^ fh[Z_Yj_ed WYYkhWYo$ D[l[hj^[b[ii" j^[h[ _i Ykh#
h[djbo de Wbj[hdWj_l[$ J^[ i_ckbWjeh _i YWb_XhWj[Z m_j^ ZWjW \hec bed]#j[hc [n#
f[h_c[djWbfbeji$J^[i_ckbWj_edhkdiYWdWbieX[XWi[Zed[nf[h_c[djWbfbejieh
ed_dl[djehoZWjW$7iWh[ikbje\ceZ[hd_dl[djehoc[j^eZij^[gkWb_joe\j^[_d#
fkjlWh_WXb[ikikWbbo_il[ho]eeZ$?dceijYWi[i_j_iXWi[Zedioij[cWj_YiWc#
fb_d]h[ikbji$
;nWcfb[i e\ j^[ Wffb_YWj_ed e\ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi \eh bed]#j[hc fheZkYj_ed
fhe]hWcc[i YWd X[ j^[ i_ckbWj_ed e\ W Yedl[hi_ed iY[dWh_e \hec [l[d W][Z
je kd[l[d W][Z ifhkY[ ijWdZi WdZ j^[_h _cfWYj ed Yecc[hY_Wb j_cX[h ikffbo
>Wd[m_da[bWdZFh[jpiY^(&&&$B[Z[hcWddWdZIj[hXW_bbkijhWj[j^_i_d9^Wf#
j[h'& m_j^ Wd [nWcfb[ \hec W fh_lWj[ [dj[hfh_i[ FhcedijhWj[di[h cedWij[ho
IY^b]b_d7kijh_W$?d9^Wfj[h',"8hkdd[h[jWb$fhel_Z[Z[jW_bie\WYWi[ijkZoe\
j^[Yedl[hi_ede\i[YedZWhofbWdjWj_edie\DehmWoifhkY[_djeX[[Y^#Zec_dWj#
[Z\eh[iji_d:[dcWha$
<ehfhWYj_YWb\eh[ijho_j_idejedboe\_cfehjWdY[je[lWbkWj[Y[hjW_dcWdW][#
c[djiY[dWh_eiWdZj^[dZ[Y_Z[j^[ceijfhec_i_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[$I_dY[j^[fheY[ii
e\jhWdi_j_ed\heced[cWdW][c[djioij[cjeWdej^[hjWa[iWj_c[f[h_eZe\Wj
b[Wiji[l[hWbZ[YWZ[i"_j_iYhkY_WbjeWii[iij^[_cfWYje\cWdW][c[djZkh_d]j^[
jhWdi_j_edf[h_eZ_ji[b\edi[l[hWb\eh[ij\kdYj_edi$?jcWo^Wff[dj^Wjj^[Z_iWZ#
lWdjW][iZkh_d]j^[f^Wi[e\jhWdi_j_ed\heced[cWdW][c[djioij[cjeWdej^[h
Wh[iei[l[h[j^Wjj^[\eh[ijemd[hZ[Y_Z[idejjejWa[j^[h_iae\j^_iefj_edWdZ
h[cW_dim_j^j^[fh[l_ekiioij[c$<eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehifhel_Z[j^[c[Wdije
ijkZoj^[bed]#j[hc_cfWYjie\cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWdZ]_l[j^[cWdkc[h#
_YWbXWi_i>Wd[m_da[b(&&'$
IkY^ iY[dWh_e WdWboi_i i_]d_\_YWdjbo _cfhel[i j^[ gkWb_jo e\ Z[Y_i_edi h[bWj#
[Zjebed]#j[hci_bl_YkbjkhWbfhe]hWcc[i$J^[h[ikbjiW\j[hWffbo_d]j^[i[fhe#
]hWcc[iYWd"^em[l[h"ij_bbfhel[jeX[mhed]"Zk[jeY^Wd]_d]]hemj^YedZ_j_edi
el[hj_c[ehj^[feii_X_b_joj^Wjiec[e\j^[Wffb_[ZWb]eh_j^ci_dj^[ceZ[bm[h[
dejWffhefh_Wj[$J^[_cfhel[c[dj\eh\eh[ijfhWYj_j_ed[hib_[i_dj^[\WYjj^Wjj^[
ijWhj_d]YedZ_j_ediZk[je]eeZ_dl[djehoZWjWWh[m[bbademd$7ZZ_j_edWbboj^[
[dl_iW][Z i_bl_YkbjkhWb jh[Wjc[dj _i Yb[Whbo Z[\_d[Z Xo ki_d]Æ_\$$$" j^[d$$$Ç ijWj[#
c[djim^_Y^Wh[ZeYkc[dj[Zdkc[h_YWbbo$?dehZ[hje[dikh[]eeZgkWb_jo_j_i
YhkY_Wbje[nfb_Y_jboZ[iYh_X[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[iikY^Wijh[[if[Y_[iYecfe#
i_j_edWdZijWdZijhkYjkh[[$]$Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ed\ehWY[hjW_dfe_dje\j_c[
_dijWdZZ[l[befc[dj"\eh[nWcfb["j^[[dZe\WhejWj_edf[h_eZ$I^ekbZj^[h[ikbji
fhel[jeX[mhed]"_j_ifeii_Xb[jeh[WZ`kijj^[kdZ[hbo_d]Wb]eh_j^ciWdZj^ki
_cfhel[j^[ceZ[bgkWb_joel[hj_c[XoYecfWh_d]j^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edim_j^h[#
WblWbk[i$?jYWdX[[nf[Yj[Zj^Wjj^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\\eh[ij]hemj^\ehfhWYj_YWbki[
_dbed]#j[hci_bl_YkbjkhWbfhe]hWcc[im_bb_cfhel[_dj^[d[Wh\kjkh[$
È 0URPOSESÈOFÈ-ODERNÈ4REEÈ-ODELS (/
È
$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMS
?dj^[fWij"\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj\eYki[ZcW_dboedj_cX[hfheZkYj_ed$JeZWo
\eh[ij[hi^Wl[jea[[f_dc_dZckbj_fb[\eh[ij\kdYj_edim^[d\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj
Z[Y_i_ediWh[cWZ[$Ckbj_fb[[Yebe]_YWb\kdYj_ediikY^WiX_ebe]_YWbZ_l[hi_jo"fhe#
j[Yj_l[\kdYj_edi[dZWd][h[Zif[Y_[i"mWj[hfhej[Yj_ed"[jY$WdZieY_e#[Yedec#
_Ygk[ij_edi_dYec["`eXi"[h]edec_Yi"h[Yh[Wj_ed"[jY$X[Yec[_dYh[Wi_d]bo_c#
fehjWdj$?dYh[Wi_d]fkXb_Y_dj[h[ij_d\eh[ijiWdZ\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj_cfWYjZ[#
cWdZi fWhj_Y_fWj_l[ fbWdd_d] c[j^eZi$7i bed] Wi i_ckbWjehi ^WZ je Z[Wb m_j^
lWh_ekii_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[djiY[dWh_eiWjijWdZb[l[bm_j^efj_c_iWj_edkdZ[h
\eh[ij]hemj^YedZ_j_edi"\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bim[h[ik\\_Y_[dj$9edd[Yj_d][Ye#
dec_Y gk[ij_edi h[gk_h[Z WZZ_j_edWb ceZkb[i je j^[ i_ckbWjeh$ 9ecfb[n ckbj_#
\kdYj_edWbZ[cWdZim_j^Wm_Z[lWh_[joe\iec[j_c[iYed\b_Yj_d]eX`[Yj_l[ii^em
j^[d[Y[ii_joe\Wceh[Yecfh[^[di_l[ioij[cjeikffehjZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]$J^[
YecX_dWj_ed e\ \eh[ij _dl[djeho ZWjWXWi[i" \eh[ij ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi" [Yedec_Y
ceZkb[i"][e]hWf^_YWb_d\ehcWj_edioij[ciWdZl_ikWb_iWj_edjeebib[WZjeYec#
fb[nZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci:II"[$]$FkaaWbW(&&(17bX[hj(&&)1>Wd[m_da[b
(&&)$J^[_Z[WX[^_dZj^_i_idejjeYh[Wj[WXbWYaXenm^[h[ZWjWWh[\[Z_dWjj^[
ed[[dZWdZh[WZoh[ikbji[c[h][Wjj^[ej^[h"Xkjjei^em_dWjhWdifWh[djmWo
j^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\Z_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[djWbj[hdWj_l[iedWlWh_[joe\Z_\\[h[dj\eh#
[ij\kdYj_edi$J^_i_im^oj^[ki[e\ikY^ioij[ci_iWbmWoiWd_dj[hWYj_l[Yecfk#
j[h#XWi[ZfheY[ii$
?dYh[Wi_d]boe\j[d"j^[fkXb_Yehif[Y_\_Y_dj[h[ij]hekfiZ[cWdZj^[h_]^je\
fWhj_Y_fWj_ed$I_dY[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]X[Yec[iceh[WdZceh[Yecfb[nZk[jej^[
jWiae\efj_c_i_d]lWh_eki\eh[ij\kdYj_edi"_j_i_d[l_jWXb[j^Wjded#[nf[hj]hekfi
m_bbX[_dlebl[Z"^Wl_d]jel_ikWb_i[Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$J^ki_j_i
feii_Xb[jei[b[YjZ_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[iWim[bbWih[if[Yj_l[m[_]^ji
e\\kb\_bbc[dj\ehlWh_ekifWhjie\j^[ioij[cieX`[Yj_l[i"WdZefj_c_i[j^[cWn_#
ckcekjfkj_dj^[\ehce\WX[ijcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[_dWi_ckbWj_edhkd$7i
Wh[ikbj"Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[djm_bbdejX[Wc[Y^Wd_ij_YfheY#
[ii" Xkj m_bb [dWXb[ YWkiWb Wh]kc[dji m_j^ Z_\\[h[dj ijWa[^ebZ[hi WdZ Wd eX`[Y#
j_l[#eh_[dj[Z\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$J^[Z[Y_i_edikffehjioij[cifh[i[djboWlW_b#
WXb[Zedejo[j_dj[]hWj[Wbbfeii_Xb[h[b[lWdjlWh_WXb[i$M^_b[Wffbo_d]Z[Y_i_ed
ikffehjioij[ci"j^[ki[hWbmWoi^WijeX[WmWh[e\j^[b_c_jWj_edie\j^[ceZ[bi
WlW_bWXb[$J^_ii^emij^Wjj^[ki[e\Yecfb[nZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[cih[gk_h[iW
iekdZademb[Z][e\j^[feii_X_b_j_[iWdZh[ijh_Yj_edie\j^[ceZkb[i_dehZ[hje
Wle_Z\Wbi[_dj[hfh[jWj_edie\j^[h[ikbji$
È
.ATURALÈ2EGENERATION
Jh[[ceZ[bb_d]^WicWZ[jh[c[dZekifhe]h[ii_dh[Y[djo[Whi$CWdoceZkb[i
^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z_dehZ[hjeYel[hlWh_ekigk[ij_edi"[$]$[Yedec_Y[lWbkWj_ed$
J^[Yecfh[^[di_l[Wffb_YWj_ede\jh[[ceZ[bi_dfhWYj_YWb\eh[ijhoh[gk_h[ij^[
feii_X_b_joe\Wii[ii_d]dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_edWiWd_cfehjWdjf^Wi[e\ijWdZZ[#
l[befc[djWdZ_ji_cfWYjedej^[h\eh[ij\kdYj_edi$
)& #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
El[h j^[ fWij )&o[Whi j^[h[ ^Wi X[[d W i_]d_\_YWdj Y^Wd][ _d h[][d[hWj_ed
fhWYj_Y[i_d\eh[ijho$7hekdZj^[c_ZZb[e\j^[(&j^Y[djkho"\eh[ijijWdZim[h[
m_Z[boh[][d[hWj[ZXofbWdj_d]$M_j^j^[[nY[fj_ede\X[[Y^\eh[iji_jmWiijWj[
e\j^[WhjjefbWdjj^[d[m\eh[ij][d[hWj_ed_dWh[]kbWhfWjj[hdki_d]Z_\\[h[dj
dkcX[hie\fbWdjif[h^[YjWh[$?dj^[ijWj[e\8WZ[d#Mhjj[cX[h]"=[hcWdo"dWj#
khWbh[][d[hWj_edWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\j^['/.&imWiedboWffb_[ZjeWffhen_cWj[#
bo (+ e\ j^[ WddkWb h[][d[hWj_ed Wh[W _d j^[ fkXb_Y \eh[iji e\ j^_i ijWj[ CBH
'//)X$M_j^j^[i^_\jjeWceh[dWjkh[eh_[dj[Z\eh[ijho"dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_edX[#
YWc[_dYh[Wi_d]bo_cfehjWdj$JeZWo_jii^Wh[^Wi_dYh[Wi[ZjeX[jm[[djmej^_hZi
WdZj^h[[gkWhj[hiled=_biWWdZCeeicWo[h(&&($
9edi[gk[djbo"ceZ[bb_d]jh[[]hemj^jeZWoh[gk_h[iceZ[bb_d]dWjkhWbh[][d#
[hWj_ed$J^[fheY[iie\dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_edYWdX[Z_l_Z[Z_djejmeXWi_YfheY#
[ii[i$ Ed[ Z[Wbi m_j^ j^[ gk[ij_ed e\ i[[Zb_d] [ijWXb_i^c[dj WdZ `kl[d_b[ jh[[
]hemj^$J^[i[YedZ_ij^[fheY[iie\Æ_d#]hemj^Ç$J^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yjij^[fheXW#
X_b_joe\[n_ij_d]icWbbfbWdji[nY[[Z_d]Wfh[Z[\_d[Zj^h[i^ebZb[l[b$J^_icWa[i
i[di["X[YWki["\eh[Yedec_Yh[Wiedi"h[]kbWh_dl[djehoe\\eh[ijiZ[\_d[iWj^h[i^#
ebZb[l[bm^[h[_dl[djehoe\jh[[iijWhji$
?\\ehWY[hjW_dWh[Wj^[h[_ideh[][d[hWj_ed"_d\ehcWj_ededj^[[nf[Yj[Z[i#
jWXb_i^c[dje\ i[[Zb_d]i WdZj^[_h [nf[Yj[Z]hemj^ hWj[_id[[Z[Z$ J^[Zh_l_d]
\WYjehi \eh j^_i fheY[ii Wh[ b_]^j" i_j[ YedZ_j_edi ie_b" [nfei_j_ed" mWj[h ikffbo"
[jY$" Yecf[j_d] l[][jWj_ed WdZ Xhemi_d] _cfWYj Xo Z[[h fefkbWj_edi$7 ceZ[b
WffheWY^^WijejWa[j^[i[\WYjehi_djeWYYekdj$EdY[j^[YedZ_j_edie\i[[Zb_d]
[ijWXb_i^c[djWh[ademd"j^[d[njij[f_ije[ij_cWj[Z[di_jo$
<eh [n_ij_d] h[][d[hWj_ed j^[ WddkWb ]hemj^ _d ^[_]^j ^Wi je X[ Wii[ii[Z$
>[h[j^[Z[j[hc_d_d]\WYjehiWh[Yecf[j_j_edWdZ"W]W_d"j^[WlW_bWX_b_joe\b_]^j
>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&($<ehb_]^j"j^[h[_iWZ_h[YjYehh[bWj_edm_j^j^[
Z[di_joe\j^[]hem_d]ijeYa_dj^[el[hijeh[oe\j^[ijWdZ$
8hemi_d]e\Z[[hfefkbWj_ediYWd^Wl[WYhkY_Wb[\\[Yjedj^[[ijWXb_i^c[dje\
dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_edWim[bbWi_ji]hemj^$J^[h[\eh[_j_il_jWbje_dYbkZ[j^_i\WY#
jeh_dj^[ceZ[bb_d]WffheWY^$J^[gk[ij_ede\Xhemi_d]Z[f[dZiedWckbj_jkZ[
e\_d\bk[dY_d]\WYjehi"ikY^Wij^[h[bWj_l[Z[di_j_[ie\j^[h[][d[hWj_edWdZe\j^[
Z[[hfefkbWj_ed$7]W_di_j[YedZ_j_edifbWoWd_cfehjWdjheb[$
?dehZ[hje_dj[]hWj[j^[ceZ[bb[Z_d\ehcWj_ed_dje\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfheY#
[ii[i[Wi_bo"_jmekbZX[WZlWdjW][ekijeXWi[_jedijWdZWhZ_dl[djehoZWjW$9^Wf#
j[h/Xo>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWddZ[iYh_X[iWd_ddelWj_l[WffheWY^jej^_i$
È
#OPPICEÈ-ANAGEMENTÈANDÈ#ORKÈ0RODUCTION
I_ckbWj_ede\\eh[ij]hemj^YWdX[Wffb_[ZdejedbojeYbWii_YWb\eh[ijcWdW][#
c[dj"ikY^Wij^[cWdW][c[dje\fheZkYj_l[^_]^\eh[iji"XkjWbieWiWd_dj[h[ij#
_d]_dijhkc[dj\ehej^[h\eh[ijWYj_l_j_[i$
Ed[[nWcfb[e\j^_i_i]hemj^i_ckbWj_ede\Yeff_Y[\eh[iji"m^_Y^^Wl[Wbed]
cWdW][c[djjhWZ_j_edi_dY[j^[HecWd[hWj^hek]^ekjj^[m^eb[e\;khef[$Je#
ZWoj^_i\eh[ijioij[c_iij_bbm_Z[boWffb_[Z_diekj^[hd;khef[WdYekdjh_[i$:kh#
_d]j^[fWij'&&o[Whi_dj^[i[Yekdjh_[i"j^[h[^Wl[X[[d_cfehjWdjij[fi_dYed#
È 2EQUIREDÈ!TTRIBUTESÈ,IMITSÈANDÈ5NSOLVEDÈ0ROBLEMSÈOFÈ4REEÈ-ODELS )'
l[hi_ede\Yeff_Y[\eh[iji$?d=h[[Y["\eh[nWcfb["i_dY['/).Wjb[Wijjmej^_hZi
e\j^[ijWj[emd[ZYeff_Y[\eh[ijiWdZed[\ekhj^e\j^[fh_lWj[boemd[ZYeff_Y[
\eh[iji m[h[ Yedl[hj[Z _dje ^_]^ \eh[iji" Wi 9^Wjpf^_b_ff_Z_i WdZ Ifohe]bek Z[#
iYh_X[_d9^Wfj[h'-$JeZWo"j^[h[cW_d_d]Yeff_Y[cWdW][c[dj_ikdZ[h]e_d]W
Yb[Whi^_\jWmWo\hecYbWii_YWbfkh["[l[dW][ZYeff_Y[\eh[ijijemWhZiceh[kd#
[l[dW][ZWdZ_dY[hjW_dYWi[ic_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi$J^[ademb[Z][e\]hemj^
WdZo_[bZ_dj^[i[\eh[ijiWim[bbWij^[Wii[iic[dje\Z_\\[h[dji_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wj#
c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWh[bWYa_d]$J^[h[Wh[o_[bZjWXb[i[if[Y_WbboZ[i_]d[Z\ehYef#
f_Y[\eh[iji"Xkjj^[oZ[[cjeX[kdh[b_WXb[\eh\eh[ij]hemj^fh[Z_Yj_edikdZ[h
jeZWoÉicWdW][c[djYedZ_j_edi$9edi[gk[djboj^[h[_iWdkh][djd[[Z\ehWd[m
_dijhkc[djjefh[Z_Yj]hemj^WdZo_[bZ_dC[Z_j[hhWd[WdYeff_Y[\eh[iji$J^_i_i
[if[Y_Wbbo_cfehjWdj\ehj^[YedijhkYj_ede\cWdW][c[djfbWdi$9^Wjpf^_b_ff_Z_i
WdZIfohe]bek^Wl[Z[l[bef[ZWdWffheWY^jeX[Wffb_[Z_dfhWYj_YWb\eh[ijcWd#
W][c[dj$
7 b_jjb[ ademd Wffb_YWj_ed e\ jh[[ ceZ[bb_d] _i Z[iYh_X[Z _d 9^Wfj[h'* Xo
H_X[_he[jWb$"m^eZ[l[bef[ZWjh[[ceZ[b\ehYehafheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb$?dj^_i
YWi["YehafheZkYj_ed[dbWh][ij^[meeZ#fheZkYj_ed\eYkie\jh[[ceZ[bijeded#
meeZ\eh[ijfheZkYji8eh][i[jWb$'//-$J^[\eh[ijemd[hiWdZYehafheZkY[hi
d[[Z[ZWcWdW][c[djjeebdejedbo_dehZ[hjefh[Z_Yjj^[Wcekdje\[nf[Yj[Z
Yeha]hemj^"XkjWbieWiWd_dijhkc[djjeXWbWdY[i_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djWYj_l#
_j_[iWdZ]hWp_d]ehkdZ[hYel[hYkbj_lWj_ed_dj^_i\_b_]h[[W]he#i_ble#fWijkh[ioi#
j[c$?\j^[XWbWdY[_dj^[i[[Yeioij[ci_iZ_ijkhX[Z"j^[h[_i_dYh[Wi[Zb_a[b_^eeZ
e\[_j^[h[hei_edeh"Yedl[hi[bo"\eh[ij\_h[i$Jh[[ceZ[biWh[[nf[Yj[Zje[d^WdY[
cWdW][c[dj\ehXej^[Yedec_YWbWim[bbWi[Yebe]_YWbfkhfei[i$
È
2EQUIREDÈ!TTRIBUTESÈ,IMITSÈANDÈ5NSOLVEDÈ0ROBLEMSÈÈ
OFÈ4REEÈ-ODELS
7j j^[ [dZ e\ j^_i Y^Wfj[h Z[Wb_d] m_j^ fhWYj_YWb ki[h d[[Zi h[bWj[Z je jh[[
ceZ[bb_d]"_j\[[biWffhefh_Wj[jec[dj_edj^[b_c_jWj_edie\j^[i[jeebi\hecWd
Wffb_[ZcWdW][c[djfe_dje\l_[m$7ZZ_j_edWbboiec[e\j^[kdiebl[ZfheXb[ci
m_j^h[]WhZjej^[fhWYj_YWbWffb_YWj_ede\jh[[ceZ[bii^ekbZX[WZZh[ii[Z$
<hecWki[hÉife_dje\l_[m"jh[[ceZ[bii^ekbZ\kb\_bj^[\ebbem_d]\_l[][d[h#
Wbh[gk[ijiB[cc'//'"(&&*_dehZ[he\fh_eh_jo0
'$ 9b[Whfkhfei[if[Y_\_YWj_ed$
($ H[WiedWXb[WYYkhWYoe\fh[Z_Yj_edlWbk[WdZjhkijmehj^_d[ii$
)$ ?dj[]hWj_ed_dje_d\ehcWj_ed\bem_d\eh[ijho$
*$ 9ecckd_YWX_b_joe\ceZ[bh[ikbji$
+$ Ki[h\h_[dZb_d[iiWdZZeYkc[djWj_ede\i_ckbWj_edfheY[ii$
)( #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
È
#LEARÈ0URPOSEÈ3PECIFICATION
?dj^_iYedj[nj_j^WijeX[ijWj[Zj^Wjj^[h[_ideed[ceZ[b\ehWbbfkhfei[i$
8Wi_YWbboWceZ[bi^ekbZX[Z[i_]d[ZWifh[Y_i[boWifeii_Xb[\ehj^[if[Y_\_Yfkh#
fei[_j_iki[Z\eh$JhWdifWh[dYoe\WceZ[b_iW\WYjehe\gkWb_jo$J^[ceh[Yec#
fb[nWdWffb_YWj_ed"j^[ceh[Yecfb[nj^[ceZ[b^WijeX[$>em[l[h"j^_iijWj[#
c[dj_iWbiejhk[j^[ej^[hmWoWhekdZ$?\j^[gk[ij_edWia[Z_ihWj^[hi_cfb["_j
Ze[idejcWa[i[di[jeki[WYecfb_YWj[ZceZ[b"X[YWki[\ehj^[ki[hj^[Zh_l_d]
\WYjehie\j^[ceZ[bh[WYj_edi^ekbZX[Yecfh[^[di_Xb[$J^[X[ijceZ[biWh[j^[
i_cfb[ij"]_l[dj^[gk[ij_edj^WjckijX[Wdim[h[Z$CkY^YWdX[]W_d[ZXoZ[#
\_d_d]fh[Y_i[boj^[cWdW][h_WbfheXb[cjeX[iebl[ZWdZXob_c_j_d]j^[ceZ[b
ijh_Yjbojej^WjfheXb[c8ked]_ehdeWdZ=_bb[ii'/.-$E\Yekhi["j^_iijWj[c[dj
YWdedbo^ebZWiW][d[hWbhkb[$?dfhWYj_Y[ed[^WijeWYY[fjYecfhec_i[i$
È
2EASONABLEÈ!CCURACYÈOFÈ0REDICTIONÈ6ALUEÈANDÈ4RUSTWORTHINESS
J^[ ki[h i^ekbZ X[ WXb[ je h[bo ed j^[ WYYkhWYo e\ j^[ ceZ[b h[ikbji$ J^[o
i^ekbZ]_l[Wjhk[f_Yjkh[e\h[Wb_jom_j^h[if[Yjjej^[if[Y_\_YceZ[bfkhfei[$
<ehj^_i_j_i_cfehjWdjjeademj^[hWd][e\lWb_Z_joe\j^[Wffb_[ZceZ[b$J^_i
^ebZi\ehj^[][e]hWf^_YWbhWd][Wim[bbWij^[hWd][e\lWh_WXb[ie\Z_\\[h[djjh[Wj#
c[djij^[ceZ[bmWiYWb_XhWj[Z\eh$
CeZ[biWh[ceh[jhkijmehj^o_\j^[oWh[Æjh_[ZWdZj[ij[ZÇ$J^_ic[Wdij^WjW
ceZ[bi^ekbZ^Wl[iec[h[\[h[dY[iehY[hj_\_YWj_ed$7d_cfehjWdjij[f_dj^_iZ_#
h[Yj_ed mWi cWZ[ m_j^ j^[ H[Yecc[dZWj_edi \eh IjWdZWhZ_p[Z :eYkc[djWj_edi
WdZ<khj^[h:[l[befc[dje\<eh[ij=hemj^I_ckbWjehieh_]_dWj_d]\hecj^[i[Y#
j_edO_[bZIY_[dY[e\j^[=[hcWd7iieY_Wj_ede\<eh[ijhoH[i[WhY^Eh]Wd_pWj_edi
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($?\ki[hiYedi_Z[hj^[ceZ[bjeX[WÆXbWYaXenÇWdZj^[oZe
dejkdZ[hijWdZj^[kdZ[hbo_d]Wb]eh_j^ci"j^[WYY[fjWdY[e\j^[ceZ[bcWoik\#
\[h$<_dWbbo"j^[ceZ[bijhkYjkh[i^ekbZX[WZ[gkWj[boZeYkc[dj[Z$
È
)NTEGRATIONÈ)NTOÈ)NFORMATIONÈ&LOWÈINÈ&ORESTRY
7d_cfehjWdjh[gk[ij\hecWki[hÉife_dje\l_[m_ij^Wjj^[h[i^ekbZX[_dj[h#
\WY[iebkj_edije_dfkjZWjW"ikY^Wi_dl[djeho"Ybei[#je#fhWYj_Y[Z[\_d_j_edie\i_b#
l_YkbjkhWbijhWj[]_[iWdZekjfkjlWh_WXb[iikY^Wi[Yedec_YceZkb[i\eh\khj^[h
fheY[ii_d]e\j^[h[ikbj_d]]hemj^WdZo_[bZZWjW$
È 2EQUIREDÈ!TTRIBUTESÈ,IMITSÈANDÈ5NSOLVEDÈ0ROBLEMSÈOFÈ4REEÈ-ODELS ))
È
#OMMUNICABILITYÈOFÈ-ODELÈ2ESULTS
J^[ekjfkjh[ikbjie\j^[ceZ[bi^ekbZX[[WiojekdZ[hijWdZ$J^[h[i^ekbZ
X[ ijWdZWhZ c[j^eZi \eh j^[ _dj[hfh[jWj_ed e\ ZWjW" ikY^ Wi YecfWh_ied lWbk[i$
L_ikWb_iWj_ede\j^[h[ikbjiYWdX[Wd_dijhkc[djje[nfbW_dYecfb[nYehh[bWj_edi$
Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"l_ikWb_iWj_edYWdX[i[ZkYj_l[$=eeZWd_cWj_edWdZl_ikWb_#
iWj_edZe[idej]kWhWdj[[[_j^[hj^[gkWb_joe\j^[_dfkjZWjWehj^[WYYkhWYoe\
j^[ceZ[b$FhWYj_j_ed[hii^ekbZX[m[bbWmWh[e\j^_iWdZWbmWoiWffboYh_j_Y_ic
jemWhZij^[ceZ[bj^[oki[$J^[oi^ekbZX[WmWh[e\j^[b_c_jWj_edie\j^[ceZ#
[b_dki[WdZ[dikh[j^[oZedej[nf[YjjeeckY^e\_j$J^_i^ebZi[if[Y_Wbbojhk[
\ehi_jkWj_edi_dm^_Y^j^[ceZ[b_iWffb_[ZX[oedZj^[hWd][e\lWh_WXb[i_jmWi
YWb_XhWj[Z\eh$
È
5SERÈ&RIENDLINESSÈANDÈ$OCUMENTATIONÈOFÈ3IMULATIONÈ0ROCESS
J^[ ki[h _dj[h\WY[ i^ekbZ X[ WZWfj[Z je j^[ Yedl[dj_edWb Z[i_]d e\ ijWdZ#
WhZie\jmWh[$?ji^ekbZX[_dj[hWYj_l["i[b\[nfbWdWjehoWdZh[gk_h[b_jjb[jhW_d_d]$
7lW_bWXb[Yecfed[djii^ekbZX[Yb[Whboi[fWhWj[ZWdZ^Wl[Wffhefh_Wj[XWi_Yi[j#
j_d]i_dehZ[hjeh[ZkY[j^[Y^WdY[e\c_iki[$Ki[h\h_[dZb_d[iiYec[iZemdje
]eeZ ie\jmWh[ [d]_d[[h_d]$ J^_i h[gk_h[i Ybei[ Yeef[hWj_ed X[jm[[d ceZ[bb[hi"
ie\jmWh[[d]_d[[hiWdZ[dZki[hi$
<_dWbbo"j^[i_ckbWj_edfheY[ii^WijeX[jhWY[WXb[\ehj^[[dZki[h$J^_icWa[i
j^[ZeYkc[djWj_ede\j^[i_ckbWj_edfheY[iiWd_cfehjWdjij[fm_j^_dj^[ki[e\
jh[[ceZ[bi$:eYkc[djWj_edijWhjim_j^j^[iWl_d]e\j^[i[jj_d]iWdZWiikcf#
j_edi\ehj^[i_ckbWj_edi[ii_edWdZWYecfh[^[di_l[be]#\_b[Yh[Wj_edWbed]i_Z[
j^[i[ii_ed$J^_iWbbemi\ehWbWj[hh[l_i_ede\j^[i[jj_d]i_\j^[i_ckbWj_edh[ikbj
Ze[idej\_jh[Wb_jo$7Yecfb[j[ceZ[bie\jmWh[^WdZXeeaWdZW]beiiWhom_j^Wd
[nfbWdWj_ede\j^[cW_dj[Y^d_YWbj[hciWh[Wbied[[Z[Z$<_dWbbo"iY_[dj_\_Yh[\[h#
[dY[i\ehXWYa]hekdZ_d\ehcWj_edm_bbWbiehW_i[j^[jhkijmehj^_d[iie\j^[ceZ#
[b$;l[dj^ek]^iec[Wif[Yjie\j^[h[gk_h[Zki[h\h_[dZb_d[ii Wh[deje\ckY^
iY_[dj_\_Y _dj[h[ij" j^[o Z[cWdZ bWh][ \_dWdY_Wb \kdZi" [if[Y_Wbbo \eh Yedj_dkeki
cW_dj[dWdY[WdZkfZWj_d]e\j^[ceZ[bie\jmWh[$
<eh i[l[hWb ceZ[bi ed[ _cfehjWdj gk[ij_ed ij_bb h[cW_di kdWdim[h[Z$ Jh[[
ceZ[bi Wh[ m_Z[bo Z[l[bef[Z Xo iY_[dj_\_Y _dij_jkj_edi ikY^ Wi kd_l[hi_j_[i WdZ
\eh[ijh[i[WhY^_dij_jkj[i$J^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[ceZ[b_iWiY_[dj_\_YY^Wbb[d][
j^[iY_[dj_ij_i_dj[h[ij[Z_dikhcekdj_d]$EdY[j^[ceZ[b_ih[WZo"j^[fheXb[ci
e\cW_dj[dWdY["ikffehj^ejb_d["[jY$WdZ\khj^[hZ[l[befc[dj[c[h][$FhWYj_#
YWbWffb_YWj_edZ[f[dZil[hoijhed]boedj^[WlW_bWX_b_joe\j^[i[i[hl_Y[i$?dj^[
bed]hkd"j^[oWh[e\i_c_bWh_cfehjWdY[jej^[ceZ[bgkWb_jo_ji[b\$KikWbboj^[Wf#
fb_YWj_ede\Wjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bh[gk_h[iiec[_dl[ijc[dj"dejedbo_die\jmWh[
WdZ^WhZmWh[XkjWbieWdZe\j[dceh[[nf[di_l[bo_dj^[[ZkYWj_edWdZYedj_d#
kekijhW_d_d]e\j^[f[hiedd[bZ[Wb_d]m_j^j^[ceZ[b$J^_ijhW_d_d]i^ekbZ[l[d
ijWhjWjj^[[WhboijW][e\kd_l[hi_jo#b[l[b[ZkYWj_ed$7d[nY[fj_edjej^[hkb[_ij^[
i_jkWj_edm^[h[W\eh[iji[hl_Y[ehW\eh[ijWZc_d_ijhWj_edZ[l[befiWjh[[ceZ#
)* #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
[bWdZfhel_Z[ij^[i[hl_Y[jea[[fj^[ceZ[bm_j^_jiemdh[iekhY[i8YacWdd
(&&*$I_dY[j^[_dfkje\ced[oWdZf[hiedd[b_il[ho^_]^"j^_im_bb][d[hWbboed#
boX[feii_Xb[\ehbWh][WZc_d_ijhWj_edieh\eh\eh[ijemd[hi$
Iec[ gk[ij_edi ij_bb h[cW_d kdh[iebl[Z h[]WhZ_d] j^[ iWj_i\WYj_ed e\ \eh#
[ijfhWYj_Y[$Ed[e\j^ei[Wif[Yji_ih_ia[lWbkWj_ed$9WjWijhef^_Y[l[djiikY^Wi
ijehci ^Wl[ X[Yec[ _dYh[Wi_d]bo _cfehjWdj _d [l[ho#ZWo \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj$
Jh[[ceZ[biWh[^ef[Zjefhel_Z[Wd_dijhkc[djjeX[jj[hWii[ii[nf[Yj[Zijehc
ZWcW][Wim[bbWij^[Yedi[gk[dY[i\ehcWdW][c[dj$
7dej^[h _cfehjWdj Wh[W e\ h[i[WhY^ h[bWj[Z je jh[[ ceZ[bb_d] _i j^[ \_[bZ e\
gkWb_joWii[iic[dje\ijWdZ_d]jh[[i$J^[h[_iWd_dYh[Wi_d]d[[Z\ehX[jj[h[lWbk#
Wj_ede\j^[gkWb_joe\j^[]hem_d]ijeYa_dehZ[hjecW_djW_d[Yedec_YikijW_d#
WX_b_jo$
È
#ONCLUSION
?dh[Y[djo[Whi"fhe]h[iicWZ[_djh[[ceZ[bb_d]^WiX[[djh[c[dZeki$Jh[[
ceZ[bi^Wl[fhel[djeX[WZ[gkWj[_dijhkc[djije[d^WdY[\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj
fbWdd_d]Wim[bbWiijhWj[]_Ybed]#j[hcfbWdd_d]_d\eh[ijho$Iec[iebkj_edi\eh
l_ikWb_iWj_edWdZjhW_d_d]fkhfei[ih[bWj[Zjejh[[ceZ[biWh[Wbh[WZoWlW_bWXb[$
CeZ[hdjh[[ceZ[bi[nY[bjeW^_]^Z[]h[[e\\b[n_X_b_jo_di_bl_YkbjkhWbiY[dWh_ei
WdZ_dj[]hWj_ed_djeXki_d[iief[hWj_d]fheY[ii[i$:[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci^Wl[
dejo[jX[[dZ[l[bef[Z"Xkj_jYWdX[[nf[Yj[Zj^Wjm_j^_dWYekfb[e\o[Whij^[o
m_bbX[m[bb_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]fheY[ii[ie\cWdo\eh[ijemd#
[hi$
7i\ehej^[hj[Y^d_YWbfhe]h[ii"kd_l[hi_j_[iWdZh[i[WhY^ijWj_edi^Wl[fbWo[Z
j^[b[WZ_d]heb[kfjedem$Je[dikh[Wd_dj[]hWj_ede\jh[[ceZ[bi_djefhWYj_Y[_d
j^[\kjkh["WYbei[hYeef[hWj_edX[jm[[d[dZki[hiWdZceZ[bZ[l[bef[hi_id[[Z#
[Z$J^_ih[gk_h[iWZ[[f[hkdZ[hijWdZ_d]e\j^[]hemj^ceZ[biXo\eh[ijfhWYj_#
j_ed[hiWdZYedijWdjXWYakfXoWdZWlW_bWX_b_joe\j^[ceZ[b[nf[hji$7d_dj[]hW#
j_ede\\eh[ijfhWYj_Y[YekbZb[WZjeh[ikbjijej^[X[d[\_je\ Xej^ fWhji0 W Yec#
fh[^[di_l[ Z[iYh_fj_ed e\ ceZ[b b_c_ji" _Z[dj_\_YWj_ed e\ ZWjW ]Wfi" h[\_d[c[dj
e\ j^[ Wb]eh_j^ci" Z[\_d_j_ed e\ fhWYj_Y[#h[b[lWdj i_bl_YkbjkhWb iY[dWh_ei" _dYbkZ#
_d]j^[_hjhWdi\[hjegkWdj_jWj_l[i[jj_d]i\ehj^[i_ckbWj_edfheY[ii"WdZ\khj^[h#
ceh["Wd[dbWh][c[dje\j^[]hemj^WdZo_[bZYeh[e\jh[[ceZ[bijemWhZiiki#
jW_dWX_b_joYh_j[h_WWdZ_dZ_YWjehiYecfWh[C9F<;(&&)1i[[fhe]h[iie\I?BL70
Fh[jpiY^(&&*$
<_dWbbo"WYedj_dk_d]Z[l[befc[dje\jh[[ceZ[biZe[idejc[WdjejhWdi\ehc
Wbb[n_ij_d]i_ckbWjehi_djeWbb#fkhfei[jeebi$HWj^[hikY^Z[l[befc[djW_cije_d#
l[ijceh[_dj^ei[Yecfed[djiWdZj^[cW_dfkhfei[ie\[WY^i_ckbWjehj^Wje\#
\[hX[ij#fhWYj_Y[iebkj_edi$J^_imekbZWbieYehh[ifedZjeWd[Yedec_Yki[e\b_c#
_j[Z\_dWdY_Wbh[iekhY[i$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTS )+
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ7EÈAREÈVERYÈGRATEFULÈTOÈ-RSÈ2È+RIEGÈFORÈHERÈKINDÈASSISTANCEÈDURINGÈTHEÈ
PREPARATIONÈOFÈTHISÈCHAPTERÈ7EÈALSOÈTHANKÈ-RÈ3TUARTÈ$EDRICKÈFORÈREVISINGÈTHEÈ%NGLISHÈANDÈTWOÈ
ANONYMOUSÈREVIEWERSÈFORÈTHEIRÈVALUABLEÈSUGGESTIONSÈANDÈASSISTANCE
2EFERENCES
!BETZÈ 0È È :UMÈ +ONZEPTÈ EINERÈ :
"AUM
ORIENTIERTENÈ +ONTROLLMETHODEÈ !LLGÈ &ORSTÈ *AGDZÈ
n
!BETZÈ0È+LËDTKEÈ*È È4HEÈTARGETÈTREEÈMANAGEMENTÈSYSTEMÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
!LBERTÈ -È È !NALYSEÈ UNDÈ MULTIKRITERIELLEÈ "EWERTUNGÈ ALTERNATIVERÈ 7ALDENTWICKLUNGSSZE
NARIENÈMITÈ(ILFEÈDESÈ!NALYTISCHENÈ(IERARCHIEPROZESSESÈ)NÈ3EKTIONÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈIMÈ$EUT
SCHENÈ6ERBANDÈ&ORSTLICHERÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈED È0ROCÈ*AHRESTAGUNGÈnÈ*UNIÈ4ORGAUÈ
PPÈn
!SSMANNÈ%È&RANZÈ&È È6ORLËUFIGEÈ&ICHTENERTRAGSTAFELÈFàRÈ"AYERNÈ)NSTITUTÈFàRÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈ
DERÈ&ORSTLICHENÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTÈ-àNCHEN
!UGUSTOÈ,È2ANGERÈ*È"INKLEYÈ$È2OTHEÈ!È È)MPACTÈOFÈSEVERALÈCOMMONÈTREEÈSPECIESÈOFÈ%URO
PEANÈTEMPERATEÈFORESTSÈONÈSOILÈFERTILITYÈ!NNÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
"AIERÈ 0È &àHRERÈ %È +IRISITISÈ 4È 2OSNERÈ 3È È #OMPARISONÈ OFÈ THEÈ RESISTANCEÈ OFÈ .ORWAYÈ SPRUCEÈ
0ICEAÈ ABIESÈ ;,=È +ARST È INÈ SECONDARYÈ PUREÈ SPRUCEÈ ANDÈ MIXEDÈ SPECIESÈ STANDSÈ AGAINSTÈ BARKÈ
BEETLESÈ#OLEOPTERAÈ3COLYTIDAE ÈANDÈTHEÈASSOCIATEDÈBLUEÈSTAINÈFUNGUSÈ#ERATOCYSTISÈPOLONICAÈ
3IEM È #È -OREAUÈ )NÈ (ASENAUERÈ (È ED È 0ROCÈ )NTÈ #ONFÈ ONÈ &ORESTÈ %COSYSTEMÈ 2ESTAURATIONÈ
%COLOGICALÈ ANDÈ %CONOMICALÈ )MPACTSÈ OFÈ 2ESTAURATIONÈ 0ROCESSESÈ INÈ 3ECONDARYÈ #ONIFEROUSÈ
&ORESTSÈnÈ!PRILÈ6IENNAÈPPÈn
"ERGELÈ $È È $OUGLASIEN
%RTRAGSTAFELÈ FàRÈ .ORDWESTDEUTSCHLANDÈ È !LLGÈ &ORSTÈ *AGDZÈ
n
"ÚCKMANNÈ4È È-ÚGLICHKEITENÈUNDÈ'RENZENÈVONÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLENÈAUSÈ3ICHTÈDERÈ
&ORSTLICHENÈ0RAXISÈ)NÈ(ANEWINKELÈ-ÈVONÈ4EUFFELÈ+ÈEDS È&REIBURGERÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ&ORSCHUNGÈ
nÈ"ERICHTEÈÈ%IGENVERLAGÈDERÈ&6!È&REIBURGÈPPÈn
"ONNEAUÈ-È.YSÈ#È È%FFECTSÈOFÈATMOSPHERICÈNITROGENÈDEPOSITIONÈINÈFORESTÈSTANDSÈRECOG
NIZINGÈ THEÈ CONSEQUENCESÈ BYÈ FOLIARÈ ANALYSISÈ )NÈ +ARJALAINENÈ 4È 3PIECKERÈ (È ,AROUSSINIEÈ /È
EDS È #AUSESÈ ANDÈ CONSEQUENCESÈ OFÈ ACCELERATINGÈ TREEÈ GROWTHÈ INÈ %UROPEÈ %URÈ &ORÈ )NSTÈ 0ROCÈ
n
"ONNEMANNÈ!È È$ERÈGLEICHALTRIGEÈ-ISCHBESTANDÈVONÈ+IEFERÈUNDÈ"UCHEÈ-ITTÈ&ORSTWIRTSCHÈ
&ORSTWISSÈn
"ORGESÈ*'È/LIVEIRAÈ!#È#OSTAÈ-!È È!ÈQUANTITATIVEÈAPPROACHÈTOÈCORKÈOAKÈFORESTÈMANAGE
MENTÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
"OSSELÈ (È È -ODELINGÈ ANDÈ SIMULATIONÈ 0ETERSÈ 7ELLESLEYÈ -ASSACHUSETTSÈ 6IEWEGÈ 7IESBA
DEN
"UONGIORNOÈ*È'ILLESSÈ*+È È&ORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈANDÈECONOMICSÈ-ACMILLANÈ.EWÈ9ORK
#ANNELLÈ -'2È È 2ELATIVEÈ IMPORTANCEÈ OFÈ INCREASINGÈ ATMOSPHERICÈ #/È .È DEPOSITIONÈ ANDÈ
TEMPERATUREÈINÈPROMOTINGÈ%UROPEANÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈ)NÈ+ARJALAINENÈ4È3PIECKERÈ(È,AROUSSI
NIEÈ/ÈEDS È#AUSESÈANDÈCONSEQUENCESÈOFÈACCELERATINGÈTREEÈGROWTHÈINÈ%UROPEÈ%URÈ&ORÈ)NSTÈ
0ROCÈn
$ROUINEAUÈ3È,AROUSSINIEÈ/È"IROTÈ9È4ERRASSONÈ$È&ORMEYÈ4È2OMAN
!MATÈ"È È*OINTÈEVALUA
TIONÈOFÈSTORMSÈFORESTÈVULNERABILITYÈANDÈTHEIRÈRESTORATIONÈ$ISCUSSIONÈ0APERÈ%UROPEANÈ&ORESTÈ
)NSTITUTEÈ*OENSUU
), #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
+ORPILAHTIÈ %È È $ISTURBANCEÈ DYNAMICSÈ INÈ BOREALÈ FORESTSÈ DEFININGÈ THEÈ ECOLOGICALÈ BASISÈ OFÈ
RESTORATIONÈANDÈMANAGEMENTÈOFÈBIODIVERSITYÈ3ILVAÈ&ENNICAÈ4HEÈ&INNISHÈ3OCIETYÈOFÈ&ORESTÈ
3CIENCE È(ELSINKI
+ULHAVYÈ *È "ERGERÈ 4È #ABOUNÈ 6È 'OTTLEINÈ !È 'RUNDAÈ "È (EITZÈ 2È +ANTORÈ 0È +LIMOÈ %È ,OMSKYÈ "È
.IEMTURÈ3È2EHFUESSÈ+%È3LODICAKÈ-È3TERBAÈ(È6ESTERDALÈ,È È%COLOGICALÈCONSEQUENCESÈ
OFÈCONVERSIONÈ)NÈ3PIECKERÈ(È(ANSENÈ*È+LIMOÈ%È3KOVSGAARDÈ*0È3TERBAÈ(ÈVONÈ4EUFFELÈ+ÈEDS È
.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈCONVERSIONÈnÈOPTIONSÈANDÈCONSEQUENCESÈ,EIDENÈ"OSTONÈ"RILLÈ%URÈ&ORÈ)NSTÈ
2ESÈ2EPÈn
+URTHÈ(È È&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈ$EUTSCHERÈ,ANDSCHAFTSVERLAGÈ"ERLIN
,EMMÈ 2È È %INÈ DYNAMISCHEÈ &ORSTBETRIEBS
3IMULATIONSMODELLÈ $ISSERTATIONÈ 0ROFESSURÈ FàRÈ
&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈUNDÈ7ALDWACHSTUMÈDERÈ%4(È:àRICH
,EMMÈ2È È%INÈ-ODELLÈFàRÈALLEÈ&ËLLEÈ)NÈ(ANEWINKELÈ-ÈVONÈ4EUFFELÈ+ÈEDS È7ALDWACHSTUMS
MODELLEÈFàRÈ0ROGNOSENÈINÈDERÈ&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈnÈ3TANDÈDERÈ7ISSENSCHAFTÈINÈ-ITTELEUROPAÈ
&REIBURGERÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ&ORSCHUNGÈnÈ"ERICHTEÈÈ%IGENVERLAGÈDERÈ&6!È&REIBURGÈPPÈn
,OCKOWÈ+7È È.EUEÈ%RTRAGSTAFELÈFàRÈDIEÈ2OTERLEÈ$ERÈ7ALDÈn
,OCKOWÈ+7È È$IEÈNEUEÈ3ANDBIRKEN
%RTRAGSTAFELÈnÈ!UFBAUÈ!NWENDUNGÈUNDÈWALDBAULICHEÈ
"EHANDLUNGÈ!LLGÈ&ORST$ERÈ7ALDÈn
-ASONÈ7,È È!REÈIRREGULARÈSTANDSÈMOREÈWINDFIRMÈ&ORESTRYÈn
-ATTHESÈ5È È7ALDÚKOLOGISCHEÈ!NALYSEÈUNDÈ"EWERTUNGÈVONÈ5MBAUMANAHMENÈIMÈBAYE
RISCHENÈ3TAATSWALDÈALSÈ"EITRAGÈFàRÈEINEÈNATURNAHEÈ&ORSTWIRTSCHAFTÈ$ISSERTATIONÈ&ORSTWISSEN
SCHAFTLICHEÈ&AKULTËTÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ-àNCHEN
-AYERÈ (È È 7ALDBAUÈ AUFÈ SOZIOLOGISCH
ÚKOLOGISCHERÈ 'RUNDLAGEÈ È TEILWÈ NEUÈ BEARBÈ !UFLÈ
&ISCHERÈ3TUTTGART
-#0&%È È 'ENERALÈ DECLARATIONSÈ ANDÈ RESOLUTIONSÈ ADOPTEDÈ ATÈ THEÈ -INISTERIALÈ #ONFERENCESÈ
ONÈTHEÈ0ROTECTIONÈOFÈ&ORESTSÈINÈ%UROPEÈ,IASIONÈ5NITÈ6IENNAÈEDS È3TRABURGÈÈ(ELSINKIÈ
È,ISBONÈÈHTTPWWWMCPFEORGRESOLUTIONSVIENNAÈACCESSEDÈÈ!PRILÈ
-,2È A È (ILFSTABELLENÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ &ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈ -INISTERIUMÈ FàRÈ %RNËHRUNGÈ ,ËNDLICHENÈ
2AUMÈUNDÈ&ORSTENÈ"ADEN
7àRTTEMBERGÈ-,2 È3TUTTGART
-,2ÈB È"ROSCHàREÈh7ALDÈ«KOLOGIEÈ.ATURSCHUTZvÈ-INISTERIUMÈFàRÈ%RNËHRUNGÈ,ËNDLICHENÈ
2AUMÈUNDÈ&ORSTENÈ"ADEN
7àRTTEMBERGÈ-,2 È3TUTTGART
.IEDERSËCHSISCHEÈ,ANDESFORSTENÈ È.IEDERSËCHSISCHESÈ0ROGRAMMÈZURÈLANGFRISTIGENÈÚKOLO
GISCHENÈ7ALDENTWICKLUNGÈINÈDENÈ,ANDESFORSTENÈÈ!UFLÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHEÈ,ANDESFORSTENÈ
(ANNOVER
/TTOÈ(È È$IEÈ&ORSTLICHENÈ%NTWICKLUNGENÈUNDÈ:IELEÈEINERÈNATURNAHENÈ7ALDPFLEGEÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ
n
0RETZSCHÈ(È È:UNEHMENDEÈ5NSTIMMIGKEITÈZWISCHENÈERWARTETEMÈUNDÈWIRKLICHEMÈ7ACHS
TUMÈUNSERERÈ7ALDBESTËNDEÈnÈ+ONSEQUENZENÈFàRÈZUKàNFTIGEÈERTRAGSKUNDLICHEÈ)NFORMATIONS
SYSTEMEÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
0RETZSCHÈ(È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSÈ"LACKWELLÈ"ERLIN
0RETZSCHÈ (È È !PPLICATIONÈ ANDÈ EVALUATIONÈ OFÈ THEÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORÈ 3),6!È È FORÈ FORESTÈ
STANDSÈFORESTÈESTATESÈANDÈLARGEÈREGIONSÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈÈ3UPPLÈ n
0RETZSCHÈ(È È3TRATEGISCHEÈ0LANUNGÈDERÈ.ACHHALTIGKEITÈAUFÈ&ORSTBETRIEBSEBENEÈ"EITRAGÈDERÈ
7ALDWACHSTUMSFORSCHUNGÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
0RETZSCHÈ (È È 7UCHSMODELLEÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ 0LANUNGÈ AUFÈ "ETRIEBSEBENEÈ )NÈ (ANEWINKELÈ -È VONÈ
4EUFFELÈ+ÈEDS È7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLEÈFàRÈ0ROGNOSENÈINÈDERÈ&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈnÈ3TANDÈDERÈ
7ISSENSCHAFTÈINÈ-ITTELEUROPAÈ&REIBURGERÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ&ORSCHUNGÈnÈ"ERICHTEÈÈ%IGENVERLAGÈ
DERÈ&6!È&REIBURGÈPPÈn
). #(!04%2È ;dZKi[hD[[ZiWdZH[gk_h[c[dji
3TANDARDIZINGÈANDÈ#ATEGORIZINGÈ4REEÈ
'ROWTHÈ-ODELS
>WdiFh[jpiY^'"F[j[h8_X[h("@Wd:khiao)"AbWkiled=WZem*"
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h+"=[hWbZAdZb[h,"=[eh]A[da-";Z]WhAkXb_d."
@h][dDW][b/"J_ceFkaaWbW'&"@[diF[j[hIaeli]WWhZ''"HW_d[h
IeZja['(">kX[hjIj[hXW')
!BSTRACTÈ4HISÈCHAPTERÈDOCUMENTSÈTHEÈPRACTICALÈAPPLICABILITYÈOFÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈGIVESÈ
ANÈ OVERVIEWÈ OFÈ CURRENTÈ MODELÈ APPROACHESÈ DEFINESÈ STANDARDSÈ FORÈ THEÈ DESCRIPTIONÈ ANDÈ
EVALUATIONÈ OFÈ GROWTHÈ MODELSÈ ANDÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORSÈ ANDÈ INDICATESÈ RESEARCHÈ NEEDSÈ 4HEÈ
RECOMMENDATIONSÈ AIMÈ TOÈ GIVEÈ USERSÈ OFÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORSÈ CONFIDENCEÈ INÈ THEÈ TRANSITIONÈ
TOÈ MODERNÈ PREDICTIONÈ SYSTEMSÈ ANDÈ TOÈ INCREASEÈ THEÈ LEVELÈ OFÈ ACCEPTANCEÈ OFÈ NEWÈ INFORMA
TIONÈ TECHNOLOGIESÈ 4HEÈ RECOMMENDATIONSÈ PROVIDEÈ DEVELOPERSÈ WITHÈ GUIDELINESÈ FORÈ MODELÈ
DESCRIPTIONÈ MODELÈ EVALUATIONÈ ANDÈ SOFTWAREÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ ANDÈ THUSÈ CONTRIBUTEÈ TOWARDSÈ
EFFICIENTÈCO
OPERATION
È
)NTRODUCTION
I_dY[ >kdZ[i^W][d '.)-" \eh W bed] j_c[ [l[d#W][Z cWdW][c[dj mWi Wi#
ikc[Z je X[ j^[ c[j^eZ \eh ikijW_dWXb[ \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj$ I_dY[ j^[ Z[YbWhW#
j_edie\H_eMehbZ9ecc_ii_ede\;dl_hedc[djWdZ:[l[befc[dj'/.-1Kd_j[Z
DWj_edi9ed\[h[dY[ed;dl_hedc[djWdZ:[l[befc[dj'//(WdZ>[bi_da_C_d#
_ij[h_Wb9ed\[h[dY['//)1Be_ia[aeia_WdZ>Wbae(&&&"j^hek]^Wh[Z[\_d_j_ede\
ikijW_dWX_b_jo"\ehc[hÆkdYedl[dj_edWbÇ\eh[ijcWdW][c[djc[j^eZi^Wl[]W_d[Z
]hekdZ$I[l[hWb;khef[WdijWj[iZ[Y_Z[Zkfedh[]kbWj_edij^Wj\ehY[Wjb[Wijj^[
ijWj[\eh[iji"WdZ_diec[YWi[iWbb\eh[ijemd[hiWim[bb"je\ebbemkd[l[d#W][Z
\eh[ijcWdW][c[djc[j^eZiikY^WiÆijhkYjkhWbj^_dd_d]Ç"ÆjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Wh#
l[ij_d]ÇWdZj^[[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZYWh[e\c_n[ZijWdZi$:kh_d]j^[fWijjmeZ[Y#
WZ[ij^_i^WiX[[dW_Z[ZXoj^[Z[l[befc[dje\\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehi_dY[djhWb
' [#cW_b0^$fh[jpiY^6bhp$jkc$Z[
("'( 9^W_h e\ <eh[ijO_[bZ IY_[dY[" J[Y^d_YWb Kd_l[hi_jo e\ Ckd_Y^"7c >eY^Wd][h ')" .+)+*
<h[_i_d]"=[hcWdo
) ?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ijCWdW][c[djWdZ=[eZ[io"J[Y^d_YWbKd_l[hi_joPleb[d"IbelWa_W
* ?dij_jkj[\eh<eh[ijFbWdd_d]WdZO_[bZIY_[dY["Kd_l[hi_jo=jj_d][d"=[hcWdo
+"') ?dij_jkj[ \eh <eh[ij =hemj^ H[i[WhY^" Kd_l[hi_jo e\ DWjkhWb H[iekhY[i WdZ 7ffb_[Z B_\[
IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW"7kijh_W
,"-". <eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ed8WZ[d#Mhjj[cX[h]"<h[_Xkh]"=[hcWdo
/ <eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_edD_[Z[hiWY^i[d"=jj_d][d"=[hcWdo
'& <WYkbjoe\<eh[ijho"Kd_l[hi_joe\@e[dikk"<_dbWdZ
'' :Wd_i^<eh[ijWdZBWdZiYWf[H[i[WhY^?dij_jkj["Aef[d^W][d":[dcWha
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
*& #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
;khef[m^_Y^h[bob[iiWdZb[iiedYedl[dj_edWbo_[bZjWXb[i\ehfkh[ijWdZi$M_j^
j^[eX`[Yj_l[e\el[hYec_d]j^[b_c_j[ZWffb_YWX_b_joe\o_[bZjWXb[iW]h[WjWdZ
Yed\ki_d]lWh_[joe\d[mceZ[bWffheWY^[iWdZ]hemj^i_ckbWjehiWh[X[_d]fkj
\ehmWhZ$?dYedjhWijjeo_[bZjWXb[ij^[obWYa"Wio[j"Wdo\ehce\ijWdZWhZ_pWj_ed
j^WjYekbZi[hl[WiW]k_Z[\ehki[hiWdZZ[l[bef[hi$;\\ehjijeZ[l[befikY^]k_Z[#
b_d[i^Wl[X[[dcWZ[Xoj^[I[Yj_ed<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY[e\j^[=[hcWd7iieY_#
Wj_ed e\ <eh[ijho H[i[WhY^ Eh]Wd_pWj_edi" Xo _iik_d] W ZeYkc[dj h[Yecc[dZ#
_d]j^[_djheZkYj_edWdZ\khj^[hZ[l[befc[dje\]hemj^i_ckbWjehiFh[jpiY^[j
Wb$(&&(X$M_j^_dj^[fhe`[YjÆ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biWi<eh[ijCWd#
W][c[djJeebiÇ\kdZ[ZXoj^[;khef[Wd9ecckd_jode$GBA+#9J#(&&&#&')*/
j^[i[]k_Z[b_d[i^Wl[X[[dh[l_i[ZWdZ][d[hWb_p[Zjeikffehjj^[jhWdi_j_ed\hec
o_[bZjWXb[ijei_ckbWjehiceh[ik_jWXb[\eh\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$
È
"ACKGROUNDÈANDÈ/BJECTIVESÈOFÈTHEÈ2ECOMMENDATIONS
J^[h[Yecc[dZWj_edifh[i[dj[Z^[h[ZeYkc[djj^[fhWYj_YWbWffb_YWX_b_joe\
]hemj^i_ckbWjehi"]_l[Wdel[hl_[me\Ykhh[djceZ[bWffheWY^[i"Z[\_d[ijWdZ#
WhZi\ehj^[Z[iYh_fj_edWdZ[lWbkWj_ede\]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ]hemj^i_ckbWjehi
WdZ_dZ_YWj[WZZ_j_edWbh[i[WhY^d[[Zi$J^[h[Yecc[dZWj_ediW_cje]_l[ki[hi
e\]hemj^i_ckbWjehiYed\_Z[dY[_dj^[jhWdi_j_edjeceZ[hdfh[Z_Yj_edioij[ci$
8ofhel_Z_d]Z[l[bef[him_j^]k_Z[b_d[i\ehceZ[bZ[iYh_fj_ed"ceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed
WdZ ie\jmWh[ fheY[ii_d] j^[ h[Yecc[dZWj_edi Yedjh_Xkj[ jemWhZi [\\_Y_[dj Ye#
ef[hWj_ed$
J^[h[Yecc[dZWj_edih[\[hje\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ]hemj^i_ckbWjehi
j^Wj i[hl[ j^[ \ebbem_d] fkhfei[i0 ' fh[Z_Yj_edi \eh i^ehj#j[hc WdZ c[Z_kc#
j[hcfbWdd_d]"(bed]#j[hciY[dWh_eYWbYkbWj_edi\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\ijWdZ
cWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[i1WdZ)_d\ehcWj_eded]hemj^h[ifedi[ijeijWdZjh[Wj#
c[djWdZjeZ_ijkhXWdY[\WYjehi$J^[Yh_j[h_W\ehceZ[bZ[iYh_fj_ed"ceZ[b[lWb#
kWj_ed WdZ \khj^[h Z[l[befc[dj" YWh[\kbbo WdZ h[WiedWXbo Wffb_[Z" cWo Wbie X[
jhWdi\[hh[Zjeej^[hceZ[bie\WZ_\\[h[djjof["[$]$ceZ[biXWi[Zed[Yef^oi_e#
be]_YWbfheY[ii[i$
<eh W X[jj[h kdZ[hijWdZ_d] j^[ \ebbem_d] ijh_Yj Z_\\[h[dj_Wj_ed _i cWZ[ X[#
jm[[dj^[YedY[fjie\j^[\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bWdZ]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$J^[X_ec[j#
h_YWdZcWj^[cWj_YWbh[fh[i[djWj_ede\]hemj^fheY[ii[ib[WZijeW]hemj^ceZ#
[b$J^[Yedl[hi_ede\j^_i]hemj^ceZ[b_djeWfhWYj_YWXb[Yecfkj[hfhe]hWc\eh
fh[Z_Yj_edWdZiY[dWh_eYWbYkbWj_edib[WZijej^[Yh[Wj_ede\W]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$7
ceZ[b_ij^[h[\eh[WbmWoij^[fh[YedZ_j_ed\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\Wi_ckbWjeh"Xkj
j^[Z[l[befc[dje\WceZ[bd[[Zdejd[Y[iiWh_boh[ikbj_dWi_ckbWjeh$
È
!RGUMENTSÈFORÈAÈ4RANSITIONÈTOÈ.EWÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATORS
J^[Z[l[befc[dje\\eh[ij]hemj^WdZo_[bZi_ckbWjehiXWi[ZedijWdZ#b[l[b
ceZ[bi"Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_edceZ[biWdZ_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[bi_iWh[ifedi[je
È &ORESTÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATORSÈANDÈ4HEIRÈ!PPLICATIONÈ0OTENTIAL *'
Y^Wd]_d]cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i$?j_iWbieWh[ifedi[jeY^Wd][i_dj^[WlW_bWX_b_#
jo"d[[ZiWdZ\beme\_d\ehcWj_ed_d\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y[$O_[bZjWXb[im[h[m[bbWZWfj#
[Zjej^[ijWj[e\_d\ehcWj_ed_d\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y[Wjj^[j_c[j^[om[h[\_hij[i#
jWXb_i^[Z_die\WhWij^[om[h[XWi[ZedWlW_bWXb[ZWjWedjh[[if[Y_[i"W]["^[_]^j
WdZijeYa_d]Z[di_jo$JeZWo"Yecfh[^[di_l[ijWdZWdZi_j[ZWjW[n_ijWiWh[ikbj
e\\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[i"[$]$XWi[Zedioij[cWj_YiWcfb_d]]h_Zi"i_j[cWff_d]i"[jY$
J^_icWoX[ki[ZWi_d_j_WblWbk[iWdZYedjhebb_d]fWhWc[j[hi\ehj^[d[m][d[h#
Wj_ede\]hemj^i_ckbWjehijeWY^_[l[X[jj[hWdZh[b[lWdjfh[Z_Yj_edi$JeZWo"\eh#
[ijhofhWYj_Y[[nf[Yjifh[Z_Yj_ed_dijhkc[djijefhel_Z[ceh[j^Wd`kijWijWj[#
c[djedj^[Wiikc[ZijWdZZ[l[befc[djkdZ[hijWdZWhZ_p[ZijWdZjh[Wjc[djh[#
]_c[iWi_ij^[YWi[m_j^o_[bZjWXb[i$<WY[Zm_j^Z_\\[h[djZ[cWdZi\hecj^[fkX#
b_YWdZWY^Wd][Zb[]Wb\hWc["ikfhW#h[]_edWbZ_ijkhXWdY[\WYjehi"d[mijWdZjh[Wj#
c[djfhWYj_Y[i"d[mif[Y_[ic_njkh[iWdZijWdZijhkYjkh[i"ceZ[hd\eh[ijho[n#
f[YjiÆ_\$$$"j^[dÇijWj[c[djiedj^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\j^[i[_d\bk[dY_d]\WYjehied
j^[Z[l[befc[dje\jh[[iWdZijWdZi$
7ibed]Wij^[d[[Z\eh_d\ehcWj_edmWih[ijh_Yj[ZjeW\[mlWh_WXb[ie\dWjk#
hWbfheZkYj_edWdZWb_c_j[Zif[Yjhkce\\eh[ijjof[i"_jik\\_Y[ZjeYecf_b[j^[
ÆdehcWbÇYekhi[e\ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj_dWYecf[dZ_kce\o_[bZjWXb[i$>em[l#
[h"\ehceZ[hd\eh[ij[Yeioij[ccWdW][c[djWm_Z[hhWd][e\efj_edi_ih[gk_h[Z
m^_Y^YWdX[fhel_Z[ZedboXoceh[Yecfb[nYecfkj[hceZ[bi$7fWhj\hecjh[[
WdZijWdZWjjh_Xkj[iikY^Wi]hemj^"Wiiehjc[djo_[bZWdZ\_dWdY_WbY^WhWYj[h_i#
j_Yi"ej^[hijhkYjkhWb"[Yedec_YWdZieY_e#[Yedec_YlWh_WXb[iX[Yec[_dYh[Wi_d]#
bo_cfehjWdj"m^_Y^"_dj^[\kjkh["i^ekbZX[jWa[d_djeWYYekdj_d\eh[ij]hemj^
i_ckbWj_ed$<eh[ijho_iX[_d][gk_ff[Zm_j^ceZ[hd_d\ehcWj_edj[Y^debe]oWdZ
j^[mWofWl[Z\ehj^[ki[e\Yecfkj[h#W_Z[Zfh[Z_Yj_edjeebi$7bbj^h[[_d\ehcW#
j_edioij[cYecfed[dji"_$[$^WhZmWh["ie\jmWh[WdZjhW_d[Zf[hiedd[b"^Wl[dem
h[WY^[ZWijWdZWhZ_d\eh[ijWZc_d_ijhWj_edij^WjcWa[i_j\[Wi_Xb[je_djheZkY[
]hemj^i_ckbWjehi_dje\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y[$
È
&ORESTÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATORSÈANDÈ4HEIRÈ!PPLICATIONÈ0OTENTIAL
È
3IMULATORSÈ"ASEDÈONÈ3TAND
,EVELÈ-ODELS
J^[_Z[We\ceZ[bb_d]ijWdZ]hemj^XWi[ZedWl[hW][ZWjWedj^[W][#Z[f[dZ#
[djijWdZZ[l[befc[dj_dehZ[hjeYh[Wj[Wmeha_d]XWi_i\ehj^[[lWbkWj_ed"fbWd#
d_d]WdZYedjhebe\\eh[ijhoef[hWj_edi]e[iXWYaceh[j^Wd(&&o[Whi$J^[Z[#
l[befc[dje\j^[i[h_[ie\o_[bZjWXb[i[ijWXb_i^[Z"\eh[nWcfb["XoIY^mWffWY^
'../"'./&"led=kjj[dX[h]'/'+WdZM_[Z[cWdd'/*/"XWi[Zed]hWf^_YWbbo
iceej^[Z[nf[h_c[djWbh[ikbji"_djeijWdZ]hemj^i_ckbWjehih[l[WbiWd_dYh[Wi#
_d]j[dZ[dYojemWhZi]h[Wj[h\b[n_X_b_jo$J^_ih[\[hijej^[ki[e\X_ebe]_YWbbofbWk#
i_Xb[]hemj^\kdYj_edi"X[jj[hfh[Y_i_edZk[jeWm_Z[d_d]e\j^[ZWjWXWi[WdZ_d#
Yh[Wi_d] cWj^[cWj_pWj_ed Xo ijhWj[]_Y [lWbkWj_ed WdZ X_ec[jh_Y \ehckbWj_ed e\
fh_dY_fWbh[bWj_edi^_fi7iicWddWdZ<hWdp'/,+$
*( #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
I_ckbWjehiXWi[ZedijWdZ#b[l[bceZ[biWh[ioij[cie\[gkWj_edij^WjYedjheb
j^[W][#h[bWj[ZZ[l[befc[dje\X_ec[jh_YWbijWdZlWh_WXb[i[$]$cWn_ckc^[_]^j"
Wl[hW][^[_]^j"Wl[hW][Z_Wc[j[h$8Wi[ZedWh[bWj_l[boicWbbZWjWXWi[\heco_[bZ#
h[bWj[Z ijWdZ _dl[djeh_[i Wdo i_j[#if[Y_\_Y ijWdZ Z[l[befc[dj cWo X[ i_ckbWj#
[Zedj^[Yecfkj[h\ehWb_c_j[ZhWd][e\Z_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[djefj_edi$J^[i_c#
kbWj_edh[ikbjiWh[Yecf_b[Z_djWXb[im_j^WijhkYjkh[i_c_bWhjej^Wje\j^[o_[bZ
jWXb[i" Xkj e\j[d ceh[ Yecfh[^[di_l[$ <eh fWhWc[j[h_pWj_ed WdZ YWb_XhWj_ed e\
ijWdZ#b[l[bceZ[biYeccedboj_c[i[h_[ie\ZWjWYebb[Yj[Z\hecf[hcWd[dj[n#
f[h_c[djWbfbeji"ehj[cfehWho_dl[djeh_[i"m^_Y^YWdX[]hekf[Zje\ehcWhj_\_#
Y_Wbj_c[i[h_[iWh[ki[Z$
È
3IMULATORSÈ"ASEDÈONÈ$ISTRIBUTIONÈ-ODELS
?d h[ifedi[ je Y^Wd][i _d _d\ehcWj_ed d[[Zi j^[ \_hij Z_Wc[j[h Z_ijh_Xkj_ed
ceZ[bim[h[Yh[Wj[Z_dj^['/,&i\eh[l[d#W][Zfkh[ijWdZim^_Y^"WfWhj\hecWl#
[hW][ijWdZlWbk[i"Wbiefhel_Z[Z_d\ehcWj_ededj^[\h[gk[dY_[ie\i_d]b[jh[[Z_#
c[di_edi9bkjj[hWdZ8[dd[jj'/,+$J^[oW_cWjWceh[Z_ij_dYj_l[Wii[iic[dj
e\]hWZ[WdZlWbk[Z[l[befc[dj_dfkh["[l[d#W][ZijWdZi$IjWdZ]hemj^ceZ[bi
fhel_Z_d]_d\ehcWj_ededij[cdkcX[h\h[gk[dY_[i_dYbkZ[Z_\\[h[dj_Wb[gkWj_ed
ceZ[bi"\h[gk[dYofhe]dei_iceZ[biWdZijeY^Wij_Y[lebkj_edceZ[bi$DejWbbe\
j^[i["^em[l[h"m[h[Yedl[hj[Z_djei_ckbWjehi$M_j^Z_\\[h[dj_Wb[gkWj_edceZ#
[bi_j_ifeii_Xb[jei_ckbWj[j^[Y^Wd]_d]hWj[e\o_[bZc[Wikh[i\ehj^[Z_Wc[#
j[hYbWii[ie\WdoijWdZ"[$]$j^[Y^Wd][_dij[cdkcX[hi"XWiWbWh[WWdZijeYa_d]
lebkc[_dh[bWj_edjej^[WYjkWbijWdZlWh_WXb[i$<h[gk[dYoZ_ijh_Xkj_edceZ[bi
Wh[ki[ZjeY^WhWYj[h_p[ijWdZijhkYjkh[ie\\eh[ijijWdZi[$]$led=WZem'/.-$
:_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^jZ_ijh_Xkj_ediWh[iceej^[Zekjki_d]ijWj_ij_YWbfheXWX_b_jo
Z[di_jo\kdYj_edi$J^[Z[l[befc[dje\Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^jZ_ijh_Xkj_edi_ih[bWj#
[Zjej^[fh[Z_Yj[ZZ[l[befc[dje\c[WdijWdZWdZi_j[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$IjeY^Wij_Y
[lebkj_edceZ[bi[$]$Ikpka_'/-'1IbeXeZW'/--i_ckbWj[Z[l[befc[djZodWc#
_YiWij^[cel[c[dj_dj^[_d_j_Wb\h[gk[dYoZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[Z_c[d#
i_ediXokfZWj_d]W]_l[d_d_j_WbZ_Wc[j[heh^[_]^jZ_ijh_Xkj_ed$
È
3IMULATORSÈ"ASEDÈONÈ4REE
,EVELÈ-ODELS
=hemj^i_ckbWjehiXWi[Zed_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iYedijhkYjWijWdZ\hecWceiW#
_Ye\_ji_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iXoi_ckbWj_d]j^[_h_dj[hWYj_edi_dWifWj_e#j[cfehWbioi#
j[c$?dceijYWi[ij^[cW_dYecfed[dje\_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[i_ckbWjehi_iWioij[c
e\ Z_\\[h[dY[ [gkWj_edi Yedjhebb_d] j^[ ]hemj^ X[^Wl_ekh e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[i _d
h[bWj_edjeifWj_WbijWdZehfbejijhkYjkh[$J^[kdZ[hbo_d]_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ#
[bij^[h[\eh[^Wl[W^_]^[hh[iebkj_edj^WdijWdZ]hemj^ceZ[biXWi[ZedWl[h#
W][ ijWdZ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi eh [ij_cWj_d] ij[c dkcX[h \h[gk[dY_[i$7 Z_ij_dYj_ed
cWo X[ cWZ[ X[jm[[d Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj WdZ Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dj _dZ_l_Zk#
Wb#jh[[ceZ[biCkdhe'/-*"Z[f[dZ_d]edm^[j^[hehdejj^[oki[ZWjWed_dZ_#
È &ORESTÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATORSÈANDÈ4HEIRÈ!PPLICATIONÈ0OTENTIAL *)
l_ZkWbjh[[fei_j_ediWdZ%ehZ_ijWdY[iX[jm[[dj^[jh[[ijeYedjheb_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[
]hemj^$7bj^ek]^j^[WYjkWbceZ[bb_d]kd_j_dXej^e\j^[i[ceZ[bijhkYjkh[i_i
j^[ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[" j^hek]^ W]]h[]Wj_ed" j^[ ekjfkj \hec bem h[iebkj_ed ceZ#
[bi_$[$j^[Z[l[befc[dje\ijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiikY^Wic[WdZ_Wc[j[h"ehc[Wd
^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h\h[gk[dYoZ_ijh_Xkj_ediYWdX[Z[h_l[Z[Wi_bo$
J^[\_hij_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[bmWiZ[l[bef[ZXoD[md^Wc\ehfkh[:ek]#
bWi\_hijWdZiD[md^Wc'/,*$J^_imWi\ebbem[ZXoceZ[biZ[l[bef[Z\ehfkh[
ijWdZiXoB[['/,-"C_jY^[bb'/,/"'/-+"B_d'/-&"8[bbW'/-'"7hd[o'/-(
WdZ:Wd_[biWdZ8kha^Whj'/-+$?dj^[c_Z#'/-&i;aWdZCedi[hkZjhWdi\[hh[Z
j^[Z[i_]dfh_dY_fb[ie\_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi\hecfkh[ijWdZijekd[#
l[d#W][Zfkh[WdZc_n[ZijWdZi;aWdZCedi[hkZ'/-*1Cedi[hkZ'/-+$Ceh[
h[Y[dj_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[biZ[l[bef[Zi_dY[j^['/.&i"_dj[hWb_WXoM[di[bWdZ
:Wk]^[hjo'/.*"lWd:[ki[dWdZ8_]_d]'/.+"M[di[bWdZAe[^b[h'/.+"8kh#
a^Whj[jWb$'/.-"FkaaWbW'/.-";Yacbbd[hWdZ<b[Ya'/./"Aebijhc'//)"
>Wi[dWk[h'//*"Ij[hXW[jWb$'//+"8_X[h'//,"DW][b'//,"'///"AW^dWdZ
Fh[jpiY^'//-"Fh[jpiY^'//-"(&&'WdZFh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&(W"X"bWh][boh[boed
j^[c[j^eZ_YWbfh_dY_fb[ie\j^[_hfh[YkhiehiXkjWh[ckY^[Wi_[hjeki[j^Wdaije
j^[del[bZ[l[befc[djie\]hWf^_YWbki[h_dj[h\WY[i$
J^[ \ebbem_d] i_n Z_\\[h[dj \eh[ij ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi Wh[ dem Xh_[\bo _djhe#
ZkY[Z$ J^[o h[fh[i[dj j^[ ijWj[#e\#j^[#Whj e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[#XWi[Z cWdW][#
c[djceZ[bi$CEI;I>Wi[dWk[h'//*WdZI?BL7($(Fh[jpiY^WdZAW^d'//+1
Fh[jpiY^(&&'h[fh[i[djj^[Z_l[hi_joe\W][WdZif[Y_[i"iej^Wj_j_ifeii_Xb[je
Wii[ii Yedi[gk[dY[i e\ jh[Wjc[dj ijhWj[]_[i Z[f[dZ_d] ed j^[ fei_j_ed e\ [WY^
_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[m_j^_dWbb#W][Zfkh[WdZc_n[ZijWdZi$J^[oYedi_ije\Z_\\[h[dj
ikX#ceZ[biZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj"^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj"Yhemd[nfWdi_ed"cehjWb_jo$
J^[Ykhh[djWddkWb^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djWh[YWbYkbWj[ZZ[f[dZ_d]ed
j^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j"fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djWdZWZodWc_Y]hemj^h[ZkY#
j_ed\kdYj_edYhemdhWj_eh[fh[i[dj_d]Y^Wd]_d]]hemj^YedZ_j_ediWdZYec#
f[j_j_ed[$]$h[ikbj_d]\hecj^[ijWdZjh[Wjc[dj$J^[i_ckbWjehCEI;ImWiYWb_#
XhWj[Zm_j^<kbb?d\ehcWj_edCWn_ckcB_a[b_^eeZ<?CBc[j^eZi$
I?BL7 ($( Yedi_iji e\ Z_\\[h[dj ikX#ceZ[bi ijWdZ ijhkYjkh[ ][d[hWjeh" j^_d#
d_d]"Yecf[j_j_ed"WbbeYWj_ed"h[][d[hWj_ed$I[l[hWbijWdZc[Wikh[iQikY^WiZ_#
Wc[j[h Wj Xh[Wij ^[_]^j ZX^" jh[[ ^[_]^j WdZ Yhemd Z_Wc[j[hS Wh[ YWbYkbWj[Z
WjijWdZWdZjh[[b[l[b\heci_j[YedZ_j_edi"_d_j_WbijWdZc[Wikh[iWdZjh[[#b[l#
[b Yecf[j_j_ed$ <khj^[hceh[" ij[c gkWb_jo" Wiiehjc[dj o_[bZ" Z_\\[h[dj \_dWdY_Wb
c[Wikh[iWdZijhkYjkhWb_dZ_Y[i_dZ_YWj_d]^WX_jWjWdZif[Y_[iZ_l[hi_joWh[YWb#
YkbWj[Z_dWZZ_j_ed$
FHE=D7KI Cedi[hkZ WdZ Ij[hXW '//,1 Ij[hXW WdZ Cedi[hkZ '//, WdZ
8M?DDW][b'//-ki[WZ_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djWffheWY^_dehZ[hjefh[Z_Yj_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[]hemj^ki_d]_dl[djehoZWjWedWbWh][hiYWb[$FHE=D7KIWbieYed#
i_ijie\Z_\\[h[djikXceZ[biXWiWbWh[W_dYh[c[dj"^[_]^j]hemj^"cehjWb_jo"Zo#
dWc_YYhemdhWj_e"^Whl[ij_d]$=hemj^WdZo_[bZe\jh[[iWh[YWbYkbWj[Z\hecjh[[
i_p["i_j[\WYjehi"ijWdZZ[di_joWdZYecf[j_j_ed\WYjehi$7h[bWj_edX[jm[[djh[[
]hemj^WdZW][ehi_j[_dZ_Y[i_idej_dYbkZ[Z$J^[i_ckbWjehmWifWhWc[j[h_p[Z
m_j^ZWjW\hecj^[7kijh_Wd\eh[ij_dl[djeho$
8M?DYWbYkbWj[ijh[[c[Wikh[iZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^"Y^Wd][_dYhemd
XWi[ \hec ijWdZ _dfkj lWh_WXb[i Yhemd ikh\WY[ Wh[W" Yhemd Yecf[j_j_ed m_j^
** #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
i[l[hWb\kdYj_ediWjjh[[b[l[b$>[_]^j_dYh[c[djZ[f[dZiedj^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j
]hemj^" Yecf[j_j_ed i_jkWj_ed" W][ WdZ j^_dd_d]$ J^[ Z_Wc[j[h _dYh[c[dj Z[#
f[dZiedYhemdikh\WY[Wh[WWdZYecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_ed$
J^[ IjWdZ CWdW][c[dj Ikffehj Ioij[c IJ7D: FkaaWbW WdZ C__dW '//-
Yedi_Z[hi_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[]hemj^Wied[fWhj_dWckbj_#\kdYj_edWbioij[cm_j^#
_dj^[bWdZiYWf[$IJ7D:Yedi_ijie\WijWdZi_ckbWjehb_da[ZjeWdefj_c_pWj_ed
ioij[c$?j_iWXb[jeefj_c_p[ijWdZjh[Wjc[djijhWj[]_[ii_ckbjWd[ekibo\ehi[l[h#
WbcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[ifhe\_jWX_b_jo"b_gk_Z_jo"Wc[d_joki_d]WdWZZ_j_l[kj_b#
_jo\kdYj_ed$:_\\[h[djkd_jiWdZY^WhWYj[hie\j^[eX`[Yj_l[iWh[cWZ[Yecc[d#
ikhWXb[l_WdehcWb_p[ZikX#kj_b_jo\kdYj_edi$
9EHA<?JI_iWZ[h_lWj_l[e\j^[I?BL7ceZ[bWdZif[Y_\_YWbboZ[i_]d[Zjeef#
j_c_p[YehafheZkYj_edWdZje[ij_cWj[j^[efj_ckcYeha[njhWYj_edf[h_eZ$J^[
]hemj^ceZ[bm_j^_dj^[i_ckbWjehZ[f[dZiedi_j["ijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWdZYb_#
cWj[WdZ_dYbkZ[i[gkWj_edijefh[Z_Yjj_cX[h]hemj^"Yeha]hemj^"^[_]^jWdZ
YhemdZ[l[befc[djWdZcehjWb_johWj[i$J^[YkckbWj_l[Yeha]hemj^_iXWi[Zed
j^[fej[dj_Wb_dYh[c[djceZ_\_[hfh_dY_fb[$
È
#OMBININGÈ$IFFERENTÈ4YPESÈOFÈ-ODELS
?j_iWbiefeii_Xb[jeYecX_d[[b[c[djie\ijWdZ#b[l[b"jh[[#b[l[bWdZZ_ijh_Xk#
j_ed ceZ[bi" WdZ je ki[ Wbb e\ j^[c _d j^[ iWc[ i_ckbWjeh$ J^_i _i [l[d d[[Z[Z
_dehZ[hje]kWhWdj[[j^[YecfWj_X_b_joe\]hemj^fh[Z_Yj_edicWZ[XoZ_\\[h[dj
ceZ[bjof[i$<eh[nWcfb["dWjkhWbcehjWb_joij[cif[h^[YjWh[cWoX[YWbYkbWj#
[ZXoWi[b\#j^_dd_d]ceZ[b"m^_Y^_iWijWdZ#b[l[bceZ[b[$]$H[_d[a['/))1Oe#
ZW[jWb$'/,)1Fh[jpiY^(&&'"WdZj^[jh[[i"m^_Y^m_bbZ_[Zkh_d]j^[d[nj]hem#
_d]f[h_eZ"Wh[i[b[Yj[ZXoWjh[[#b[l[bikhl_leh\kdYj_ed$Ed[mWojeki[Z_\\[h[dj
ceZ[bjof[ije][j^[h_ijeYWbYkbWj[j^[jh[[b_ij\ehjh[[#b[l[bceZ[biki_d]ijWdZ#
b[l[bWdZZ_ijh_Xkj_edceZ[bi$J^_i_iWYeccedc[j^eZ_\edboijWdZ#b[l[bY^Wh#
WYj[h_ij_YiWh[c[Wikh[Z_d\eh[ij_dl[djehoFkaaWbWWdZC__dW'//-$
È
3TANDARDSÈFORÈ-ODELÈ$ESCRIPTION
J^[h[Yecc[dZWj_edi\ehWijWdZWhZ_p[ZceZ[bZ[iYh_fj_edWh[Z[i_]d[Zje
^[bfki[hi_dj^[_hY^e_Y[e\i_ckbWjeh"_dj[hfh[jWj_ede\fh[Z_Yj_edh[ikbji"Wii[ii#
c[dj e\ fh[Y_i_ed WdZ WYYkhWYo" WdZ Wii[iic[dj e\ b_c_jWj_edi e\ j^[ ceZ[b e\
j^[_hY^e_Y[$<ehZ[l[bef[hij^[b_ije\Yh_j[h_Wi[hl[iWiWdeh]Wd_p_d]fh_dY_fb[\eh
ceZ[bZ[iYh_fj_ed$?dJWXb[)$'"j^[ceij_cfehjWdjY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yie\ceZ[biWdZ
i_ckbWjehiWh[Yecf_b[Z\eh[WY^e\j^[j[dYh_j[h_WZ[iYh_X[ZX[bem$
È 3TANDARDSÈFORÈ-ODELÈ$ESCRIPTION *+
È
-ODELÈ!PPROACH
J^[ WffheWY^ \eh j^[ Z[iYh_fj_ed e\ ikccWh_p[Z ijWdZ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi WdZ
Wl[hW][ ijWdZ lWbk[i" \h[gk[dYo Z_ijh_Xkj_edi eh _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[i m_j^ eh m_j^#
ekj Yedi_Z[hWj_ed e\ fei_j_ed Z[j[hc_d[i j^[ _dfkj WdZ ][d[hWj[Z ekjfkj ZWjW$
M^[j^[h"WdZ_dm^WjcWdd[h"i_j[lWh_WXb[i"_dl[djehoZWjWehjh[Wjc[djWbj[hdW#
j_l[iWh[X[_d]fheY[ii[ZXoj^[ceZ[bZ[j[hc_d[i_ji\b[n_X_b_joWdZj^[h[gk_h[Z
_dfkjWdZYWb_XhWj_edZWjW$7\bemZ_W]hWc^[bfiki[hikdZ[hijWdZj^[ceZ[bf^_#
beief^oXWi[Zediec[e\j^[[ii[dj_WbceZ[bYecfed[djiWim[bbWij^[YWbYkbW#
j_edfheY[ii\ehj^[fh[Z_Yj_ed$
È
2ANGEÈOFÈ!PPLICATION
7fh[Y_i[Z[\_d_j_ed^WijeX[]_l[d\ehj^[hWd][e\Wffb_YWj_edim_j^h[]WhZ
jeifWj_WbZ_c[di_edi_d]b[jh[["ijWdZ"cWdW][c[dj"h[]_ed"ikfhW#h[]_edWbWh[W
WdZj_c[iYWb[i^ehj#j[hcfh[Z_Yj_edi\eh\eh[ij_dl[djeho"bed]#j[hcfh[Z_Yj_edi
\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\j[dZ_d]ceZ[bi"i_ckbWj_ede\ikYY[ii_edij^hek]^h[][d#
[hWj_edWdZ_d]hemj^ceZ[bi"j^ki_dlebl_d]i[l[hWb][d[hWj_edi$
È
0ARAMETERIZATIONÈANDÈ#ALIBRATIONÈ3PECIFICATIONS
Je Y^WhWYj[h_p[ j^[ ceZ[b lWb_Z_jo YWb_XhWj_ed ZWjW i^ekbZ X[ if[Y_\_[Z _d
j[hci e\ ][e]hWf^_YWb h[]_ed" i_j[ YedZ_j_edi" jh[[ if[Y_[i Yecfei_j_ed" ijWdZ
ijhkYjkh["ijWdZjh[Wjc[dj"hWd][e\jh[[i_p[iWdZijWdZlWh_WXb[i"[jY$J^[ki[hWb#
ied[[ZijeX[WmWh[e\b_c_jWj_edijefWhWc[j[h_pWj_edehYWb_XhWj_edZWjW$
È
)NPUT
<ehj^[ki[hj^[\ebbem_d]_d\ehcWj_ed_i[ii[dj_Wb0m^_Y^_d_j_WblWbk[i^Wl[je
X[jWa[d_djeWYYekdj"m^_Y^_d_j_Wb_d\ehcWj_edWdZijWhj_d]lWbk[ie\jh[[iWh[
d[[Z[Z\ehfh[Z_Yj_ediWdZjem^Wj[nj[djc_ii_d]_d_j_WblWbk[i[$]$YhemdfW#
hWc[j[hi"ij[cYe#ehZ_dWj[iYWdX[Yecfb[c[dj[Zh[Wb_ij_YWbboXoj^[ceZ[b$
È
0ROGRAMÈ#ONTROL
J^[ Yedjheb e\ fh[Z_Yj_ed hkdi cWo Yecfh_i[" \eh [nWcfb[" j^[ i_bl_YkbjkhWb
jh[Wjc[djYedZ_j_edi"Y^Wd]_d]i_j[YedZ_j_ediWdZj^[\ehcWj_ede\Whj_\_Y_Wbeh
dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ed$?ji^ekbZX[ijWj[Zm^[j^[hYedjheb_ifeii_Xb[_dj[hWYj_l[bo
ehm_j^_dXWjY^#ceZ[l_WYedjheb\_b[i$
*, #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
4ABLEÈÈ ,ISTÈ OFÈ CRITERIAÈ FORÈ THEÈ STANDARDIZEDÈ DESCRIPTIONÈ OFÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORSÈ 4HEÈ CRITE
RIAÈMODELÈAPPROACHÈRANGEÈOFÈAPPLICATIONÈCALIBRATIONÈSPECIFICATIONSÈETCÈWITHÈUPÈTOÈÈMODELÈ
PROPERTIESÈEACHÈSHOULDÈBEÈDESCRIBEDÈINÈCONCISEÈFORMÈWITHÈRELEVANTÈREFERENCESÈFROMÈLITERATURE
#RITERIONÈ -ODELÈPROPERTIES
È È!GEÈDEPENDENCY
È È0RINCIPLEÈOFÈGROWTHÈMODELÈEGÈPOTENTIALREDUCTIONÈ
È DIRECTÈESTIMATIONÈGROWTHÈEQUATIONSÈUSINGÈSITEÈFACTORSÈORÈSITEÈ
È INDICESÈSITE
SPECIFICÈGROWTHÈPOTENTIAL
È È$ETERMINISTICÈANDÈSTOCHASTICÈMODELÈCOMPONENTS
È È&LOWÈCHART
È2ANGEÈOFÈAPPLICATIONÈ È3ILVICULTURALÈSCENARIOÈSTUDIES
È È5PDATINGÈOFÈFORESTÈSTANDS
È È5PDATINGÈOFÈLARGERÈASSESSMENTÈUNITS
È0ARAMETERIZATIONÈANDÈ
CALIBRATIONÈSPECIFICATIONSÈ È3PECIFICATIONSÈWITHÈREGARDÈTOÈREGION
È È3ITEÈSPECIFICATIONS
È È4YPESÈOFÈMIXTURESÈANDÈSTANDÈSTRUCTURE
È È)NTEGRATEDÈTREATMENTÈVARIANTS
È È)NTEGRATEDÈTREEÈSPECIES
È È4REEÈDIMENSIONSÈCOVERED
È)NPUTÈ È!REAÈSHAPEÈANDÈSIZE
È È-INIMUMÈINPUTÈDATAÈREQUIREMENTS
È È!DDITIONALÈINPUTÈDATAÈTOÈBEÈPOSSIBLYÈPROCESSED
È È!UTOMATICÈGENERATIONÈOFÈMISSINGÈINFORMATION
È 3TANDARDSÈFORÈ-ODELÈ$ESCRIPTION *-
4ABLEÈÈ#ONTINUED
#RITERIONÈ -ODELÈPROPERTIES
È È$ATABASEÈINTERFACE
È È-AXIMUMÈNUMBERÈOFÈTREESÈPERÈCALCULATEDÈAREA
È È0OSSIBILITIESÈOFÈPROGRAMÈCONTROLÈVISUALÈALGORITHMIC
È È)NTERACTIVEÈCHANGINGÈOFÈEQUATIONS
È È)NTERACTIVEÈCHANGINGÈOFÈCOEFFICIENTS
È È3AVINGÈOFÈINTERIMÈRESULTSÈWITHÈCONTINUATION
È/UTPUTÈ È4REEÈLISTS
È È3TANDÈCHARACTERISTICS
È È9IELDÈCHARACTERISTICSÈATÈFORESTÈENTERPRISEÈLEVEL
È È3TRUCTURALÈCHARACTERISTICSÈATÈSTANDÈANDÈFORESTÈENTERPRISEÈLEVEL
È È%CONOMICÈMEASURES
È È"IOMASSÈCOMPONENTS
È È6ISUALIZATIONÈMETHODSÈSPATIALÈREPRESENTATIONÈDIAGRAMS
È È)NTERFACESÈWITHÈOTHERÈPROGRAMS
È3UB
MODELSÈOFÈTHEÈGROWTHÈ
SIMULATORÈCONCISEÈDESCRIPTION È È$ATABASE
È È)NCREMENTÈMODELÈMODELÈPRINCIPLES
È È2EPRESENTATIONÈOFÈLIBERATIONÈFELLINGÈEFFECTS
È È#ROWNÈMODELÈDYNAMICÈSTATIC
È È-ORTALITYÈMODEL
È È)NGROWTHÈMODEL
*. #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
4ABLEÈÈ#ONTINUED
#RITERIONÈ -ODELÈPROPERTIES
È È3TOCHASTICÈCOMPONENTSÈOFÈSUB MODELS
È È$ERIVATIONÈOFÈCOEFFICIENTS
È!DDITIONALÈALGORITHMSÈ È3TATISTICALÈTIMBERÈGRADING
È È4HINNINGÈALGORITHMS
È È$ETERMINATIONÈOFÈINGROWTHÈCO ORDINATES
È È"IOMASSÈEQUATIONS
È È)NVENTORYÈINTERFACE
È È0REDICTIONÈLOOPSÈFORÈFORESTRYÈENTERPRISES
È È!BORTÈCRITERIAÈANDÈDATAÈCOMPLEMENTATION
È È4HREE DIMENSIONALÈSTANDÈVISUALIZATION
È È#ONSIDERATIONÈOFÈEDGEÈEFFECTS
È È1UANTIFICATIONÈOFÈSPATIALÈSTRUCTURE
È È#ONTINUOUSÈUPDATING
È-ODELÈVALIDATIONÈ È0RECISION
È È"IAS
È È!CCURACY
È È3ENSITIVITYÈANALYSIS
È3OFTWAREÈANDÈHARDWAREÈ È/PERATINGÈSYSTEM
È È(ARDWAREÈREQUIREMENTS
È È#URRENTÈVERSIONÈGIVINGÈYEARÈANDÈDATE
È È0ROGRAMMINGÈLANGUAGE
È
/UTPUT
7Yecfb[j[el[hl_[me\ijWdZlWh_WXb[iWdZi_d]b[jh[[_d\ehcWj_ed[ij_cWj[Z
Xoj^[i_ckbWjeh"j^[fheY[iiki[Z\ehj^[[lWbkWj_ede\h[ikbjiWdZfej[dj_Wb_d#
j[h\WY[i\ehikXi[gk[djZWjWXWi[i_iWbb_cfehjWdj\ehcWa_d]j^[i_ckbWjehWd_d#
j[]hWbfWhje\j^[_d\ehcWj_ed\bem_d\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y[$
È
3UB
-ODELSÈOFÈTHEÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATOR
J^[ZWjWXWi["ceZ[b[gkWj_edi"ceZ[bfWhWc[j[hiWdZfWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj_ed
c[j^eZi\ehj^[i_ckbWj_ede\j^[Z[l[befc[dje\ij[c"Yhemd"h[][d[hWj_edWdZ
cehjWb_joi^ekbZX[]_l[d$
È
!DDITIONALÈ!LGORITHMS
<khj^[hceZ[bYecfed[djim^_Y^[dWXb["\eh[nWcfb["_d_j_WbijhkYjkh[ijeX[
][d[hWj[Z" Wiiehjc[dj o_[bZ WdZ \_dWdY_Wb f[h\ehcWdY[ je X[ gkWdj_\_[Z" h[ikbji
je X[ l_ikWb_p[Z eh [Z][ [\\[Yji je X[ Yecf[diWj[Z" i^ekbZ X[ Z[iYh_X[Z Xo j^[
ceZ[b[gkWj_edi"j^[ceZ[bfWhWc[j[hiWdZj^[ZWjWcWj[h_Wbki[Z$?d\ehcWj_ed
i^ekbZWbieX[_dYbkZ[Zedj^[ceZ[bÉiWdZ%ehj^[i_ckbWjehÉifej[dj_Wb\ehYed#
j_dkekikfZWj_d]e\fh[Z_Yj_ediWid[m_dl[djehoZWjWehej^[hh[b[lWdj_d\ehcW#
j_edX[Yec[WlW_bWXb[$
È
-ODELÈ6ALIDATION
9edl[dj_edWb ijWj_ij_YWb _d\ehcWj_ed ed j^[ fh[Y_i_ed WdZ WYYkhWYo e\ ceZ#
[b [gkWj_edi WdZ fh[Z_Yj_edi cWo fhel[ ^[bf\kb _d Wii[ii_d] m^[j^[h W i_ckbW#
jeh _i ik_jWXb[ \eh W if[Y_\_Y fkhfei[$ 9^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi e\ ijWj_ij_Y lWb_ZWj_ed fhe#
Y[Zkh[i[$]$H[odebZi[jWb$'/.'1CWo[hWdZ8kjb[h'//)1Ij[hXWWdZCedi[hkZ
'//,1LWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-1Fh[jpiY^WdZ:khiao(&&'Wim[bbWiWijWj[#
c[djY^WhWYj[h_p_d]j^[lWb_ZWj_edcWj[h_WbcWo^[bfki[hijeZ[Y_Z[m^_Y^i_c#
kbWjehjeki[$?\j^[Z[iYh_X[Z\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehYedjW_dihWdZeclWh_WXb[i"
fh[Z_Yj_edicWoWbmWoi]_l[iec[m^WjZ_\\[h[djh[ikbji[l[dm_j^Wbbej^[hYedZ_#
j_ediX[_d][gkWb$J^[h[\eh["_d\ehcWj_ededj^[hWdZec#Yedjhebb[ZceZ[bYec#
fed[djii^ekbZX[fhel_Z[Z$?\h[ikbji\heci[di_j_l_joWdWboi_iWh[WlW_bWXb["j^[i[
i^ekbZWbieX[fhel_Z[Z$
+& #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
È
3OFTWAREÈANDÈ(ARDWARE
<ehj^[Ykhh[djl[hi_ede\Wdo]hemj^i_ckbWjehj^[ie\jmWh[WdZ^WhZmWh[h[#
gk_h[c[dji"fhe]hWcc_d]bWd]kW][iWdZc[cehoYWfWY_joh[gk_h[c[djie\j^[
Yecfkj[hi^ekbZX[]_l[d_dZ[jW_bje[dWXb[fej[dj_Wbki[hijeWii[iiik_jWX_b_jo
\ehif[Y_\_Yfkhfei[i$
7ceZ[bZ[iYh_fj_edijWdZWhZ_p[ZWbed]j^[b_d[ie\j^[Yh_j[h_Wi^emdWXel[
YedYbkZ[im_j^Wb_ije\h[\[h[dY[ijem^_Y^j^[j[njedj^[j[dYh_j[h_WcWoh[\[h$
>em[l[h"j^_ib_iji^ekbZdeji[hl[_db_[ke\fh[Y_i[_d\ehcWj_eded[WY^Yh_j[h_ed$
È
#RITERIAÈFORÈ-ODELÈ%VALUATION
J^[[lWbkWj_ede\ceZ[bii^ekbZX[h[bWj[Zjej^[ik_jWX_b_joe\j^[i[b[Yj[Z
ceZ[bWffheWY^\eh]_l[deX`[Yj_l[iWdZfkhfei[i"j^[lWb_Z_joWdZbe]_Ye\j^[
Z[l[bef[ZX_ec[jh_YceZ[bWdZj^[ik_jWX_b_joe\j^[ie\jmWh[Z[l[bef[Z\hecj^[
X_ec[jh_YceZ[b$;lWbkWj_ed_ikdZ[hijeeZjeX[Æj^[Y^[Ya#kfedj^[[\\_Y_[dYo
WdZikYY[iie\WceZ[bkdZ[hj[ij$Ç8heYa^Wki'//-"leb$,"f$-',$Ed[e\j^[Wi#
f[Yjie\[lWbkWj_ed_ilWb_ZWj_ed8heYa^Wki'//*"leb$()"f$*(0ÆLWb_ZWj_edZ[#
\_d[ij^[Z[]h[[e\WYYkhWYom_j^m^_Y^WfheY[iic[Wikh[im^Wj_jfkhfehjije
c[Wikh[Ç$7]hemj^ceZ[bcWo"_dWYjkWb\WYj"dejX[l[h_\_WXb[WjWbb"X[YWki[Æ]_l#
[d][d[hWb[cf_h_YWbijWj[c[dji^ofej^[i[i"bWmide\_dWbl[h_\_YWj_ed_ifeii_#
Xb["m^_b[\_dWb\Wbi_\_YWj_edY[hjW_dbo_i$Ç8heYa^Wki'//*"leb$()"f$(')1Feff[h
'/.*$CeZ[b[lWbkWj_ed_iWd_cfehjWdjfWhje\ceZ[bXk_bZ_d]"WdZiec[[nWc#
_dWj_ede\j^[ceZ[bi^ekbZX[cWZ[Wj[l[hoijW][e\ceZ[bZ[i_]d"\_jj_d]WdZ
_cfb[c[djWj_edLWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-$
È
%VALUATIONÈOFÈ-ODELÈ!PPROACH
J^[i[b[Yj[ZceZ[bWffheWY^i^ekbZX[Y^[Ya[Z\ehik_jWX_b_joh[]WhZ_d]j^[
ki[hÉieX`[Yj_l[iWdZfkhfei[i$J^[\ebbem_d]Yh_j[h_WWh[Yedi_Z[h[Z[ii[dj_Wb0
'$ :e[ij^[ceZ[bWffheWY^cWa[\kbbki[e\[n_ij_d]_d\ehcWj_ed\hec\eh[ijho
fhWYj_Y[jec[[jj^[ki[hÉid[[Zi5
:[f[dZ_d]edj^[ki[hÉieX`[Yj_l[i"Z[jW_b[Z_d\ehcWj_ed\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbijWdZi
ehedboceh[][d[hWb_d\ehcWj_ed\hecb_d]k_ij_YijWdZZ[iYh_fj_ediYecfh_i#
_d]_d_j_WbijhkYjkh[i"i_j[lWh_WXb[i"Z_ijkhXWdY[\WYjehi"h_iaiWdZijh[ii[icWo
X[d[[Z[Z$?jcWoX[WlW_bWXb[\hecWd_dZ_l_ZkWbijWdZ_dl[djeho"\hecijWdZ#
XWi[Z_dl[djeh_[iWdZi_j[cWff_d]ieh\hec_dl[djeh_[iWjj^[[dj[hfh_i[b[l#
[b"XWi[ZedijWj_ij_YWbiWcfb_d]$
($ :e[ij^[ceZ[bWffheWY^\kb\_bj^[ki[hÉi_d\ehcWj_edh[gk_h[c[dji5
J^[ceZ[bWffheWY^i^ekbZjWa[_djeWYYekdjY^Wd][i_di_bl_YkbjkhWbfhWYj_Y#
[i"Y^Wd]_d]ieY_WbZ[cWdZied\eh[ijiWdZ\eh[ijhoWdZZ_ijkhXWdY[\WYjehi
W\\[Yj_d]\eh[iji$
È #RITERIAÈFORÈ-ODELÈ%VALUATION +'
)$ :e[ij^[ceZ[bWffheWY^cWa[j^[X[ijfeii_Xb[ki[e\[n_ij_d]ZWjWWdZj^[
ijWj[e\X_ebe]_YWbademb[Z][jeiebl[ki[hfheXb[ci5
J^[ceZ[bi^ekbZX[]hekdZ[ZedWieb_Z[cf_h_YWbXWi_i$?dfWijZ[YWZ[iW
lWijWcekdje\_d\ehcWj_ed^WiX[[d]W_d[Zedj^[Z_c[di_edi"ijhkYjkh[WdZ
]hemj^Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yie\_dZ_l_ZkWbijWdZYecfed[dji$7dkcX[he\]hemj^
bWmi[$]$j^[bWme\efj_ckcXWiWbWh[W\hec7iicWdd'/+)"'/+,1j^[i[b\#
j^_dd_d]hkb[\hecH[_d[a['/))WdZOeZW[jWb$'/,)^Wl[X[[dZ[h_l[Z"m_j^
m^_Y^_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[bicWoX[l[h_\_[Z$7jj^[iWc[j_c[_d\ehcWj_ed
edi_j[WdZZ_ijkhXWdY[\WYjehi"XWi[Zedceh[Z[jW_b[Z_dl[djeh_[ie\j[ijWdZ
_dl[djehoi_j[i"^Wi_cfhel[ZckY^$
*$ :e[ij^[i[b[Yj[ZZ[]h[[e\Yecfb[n_joYehh[ifedZjej^[ceZ[beX`[Yj_l[i5
O_[bZjWXb[ieh]hemj^ceZ[biXWi[Zedi_p[YbWiiZ_ijh_Xkj_edim[h[m[bbik_j#
[Z je fh[Z_Yj_d] ijWdZ Z[l[befc[dj e\ fkh[ [l[d#W][Z ijWdZi" m^[h[Wi j^_i
a_dZ e\ ceZ[b WffheWY^ ^Wi _ji b_c_jWj_edi _d fkh[ ijWdZi _d m^_Y^ j[dZ_d]
YedY[djhWj[icW_dboedY[hjW_dfWhjie\j^[fefkbWj_ed[$]$i[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]"
\_dWbYhef#jh[[j^_dd_d]"ijhkYjkhWbj^_dd_d]"jWh][jjh[[ioij[c$
È
6ALIDATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODEL
+$ >emWYYkhWj[_ij^[ceZ[bYecfWh[Zm_j^h[Wb_jo5
9[hjW_dbo"j^[ceiji_]d_\_YWdjlWb_ZWj_ede\]hemj^ceZ[biYedi_ijie\WYec#
fWh_ied X[jm[[d ceZ[b fh[Z_Yj_edi WdZ WYjkWb ]hemj^ X[^Wl_ekh$>[h[" \eh#
[ij_dl[djeho_d\ehcWj_ed\hecf[hcWd[dj_dl[ij_]Wj_edi_j[i_iWd_cfehjWdj
WdZ_dZ[f[dZ[djZWjWiekhY[$?jiki[\kbd[iicWo"^em[l[h"X[ceZ_\_[ZedWY#
Yekdj e\ fhedekdY[Z Yb_cWj[ WdZ _dYh[c[dj lWh_Wj_edi Zkh_d] Y[hjW_d f[h_#
eZi$7YecfWh_iedX[jm[[dceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_ediWdZh[ikbji\hecbed]#j[hc[n#
f[h_c[djWbfbejicWo]_l[X[jj[hh[ikbji"X[YWki[WYecfWh_iede\fh[Z_Yj_ed
l[hikih[Wb_jo_ifeii_Xb[WjijWdZb[l[bWim[bbWiWj_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[b[l[b$J^[i[
YecfWh_iedii^ekbZX[cWZ[ki_d]ZWjWdejki[ZWi_dfkj\ehceZ[bfWhWc[#
j[h_pWj_ed$
J^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ede\lWh_Wj_ediX[jm[[dfh[Z_Yj_ediWdZh[Wb_jo_d\ehciedj^[
WYYkhWYoe\WceZ[b$Ioij[cWj_Y[hhehiWim[bbWihWdZeclWh_Wj_edid[[Zje
X[YWbYkbWj[Z$H[WbWdZfh[Z_Yj[ZlWbk[icWoWbieX[]hWf^_YWbbofh[i[dj[ZWdZ
YecfWh[ZXoYehh[bWj_ed$J^[lWb_ZWj_edY^WhWYj[h_ij_YicWo^[bfki[hijeZ[#
Y_Z[m^_Y^]hemj^i_ckbWjehjeki[$
,$ :e[ij^[f[h\ehcWdY[e\j^[ceZ[bYehh[ifedZjecWj^[cWj_YWbh[bWj_edi^_fi
WdZje][d[hWbX_ebe]_YWb[nf[h_[dY[5
<eh[nWcfb["_j_ifeii_Xb[jeY^[Yam^[j^[hWceZ[bYehh[ifedZijelWh_eki
YedY[fjie\cWn_ckcZ[di_joWi]_l[dXoOeZW[jWb$'/,)ehj^[YedY[fje\
efj_ckcWdZYh_j_YWbXWiWbWh[WcWdW][c[dj[ijWXb_i^[ZXo7iicWdd'/+)"
'/+,$
-$ :efh[Z_Yj_edh[ikbjiYehh[ifedZm_j^j^ei[\hecej^[hceZ[bi5
?\j^[ki[e\i[l[hWbceZ[bijeiebl[j^[iWc[fheXb[c^WifheZkY[Zi_c_bWh
h[ikbji"j^_im_bb[d^WdY[j^[b[l[be\WYY[fjWdY[e\h[ikbjiWdZj^[i_ckbWjehi
ki[Z$
+( #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
È
%VALUATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ3OFTWARE
.$?ij^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehZ[i_]d[Z\eh[Wioki[5
J^[jof[e\ie\jmWh[ki[Z_dj^[Yedl[hi_ede\j^[X_ec[jh_Y]hemj^ceZ[b_i
e\YhkY_Wb_cfehjWdY[\ehj^[WYY[fjWdY[e\j^[i_ckbWjeh$;Wi[e\ki[e\j^[
fhe]hWc_iWd_cfehjWdjWif[YjWdZ_iceij[Wi_bomWhhWdj[Z_\j^[ki[h_dj[h#
\WY[_iWZWfj[Z\hecj^[Yedl[dj_edWbZ[i_]de\ijWdZWhZie\jmWh[$J^[i[fhe#
]hWciWh[kikWbboi[b\#[nfbWdWjehoWdZh[gk_h[b_jjb[jhW_d_d]$
/$?ij^[i_ckbWjehWdZ_jiYecfed[dji\b[n_Xb[_dki[5
?j_iWZl_iWXb[jeki[Wfhe]hWcc_d]bWd]kW][\ehj^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehj^Wj_i
bWh][bofbWj\ehcd[kjhWb$?jWbieWff[Whi[ii[dj_Wbj^Wjj^[Yeh[fhe]hWcYedi_ij
e\ceZkb[iiej^Wj_dZ_l_ZkWbfhe]hWchekj_d[icWoX[[nY^Wd][ZX[jm[[d
Z_\\[h[dj meha_d] ]hekfi" cWa_d] \khj^[h" _dZ[f[dZ[dj Z[l[befc[dj feii_#
Xb[$
'&$?i_jfeii_Xb[je_dj[]hWj[j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh_djej^[_d\ehcWj_ed\bem_d\eh#
[ijhofhWYj_Y[5
<ehki[_dfhWYj_Y["m[bb#Z[\_d[Z_dj[h\WY[ijeki[h_dfkjZWjWWh[[ii[dj_Wb"Wi
m[bb Wi Z[\_d[Z ZWjW \ehcWji \eh j^[ ekjfkj e\ h[ikbji$ ?dj[hWYj_l[ ki[ e\ j^[
ceZ[b_iYedi_Z[h[ZX[ij\ehfhe\[ii_edWbjhW_d_d]fkhfei[iWdZ\ehi_bl_Ykb#
jkhWb iY[dWh_e YWbYkbWj_edi \eh j^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\ j[dZ_d] fhe]hWcc[i$ 8o
YedjhWij"i_ckbWjehi\eh]hemj^\eh[YWijiWj\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bm^_Y^YekbZ"
\eh [nWcfb[" ikffehj ^Whl[ij_d] fbWdd_d] m_bb fheXWXbo ef[hWj[ _d XWjY^#
ceZ[$ ?d j^[ bWjj[h YWi[ W ]h[Wj dkcX[h e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb ijWdZi Wh[ ced_jeh[Z
m_j^_dWbWh][j_c[\hWc[$<ehj^_ifkhfei[fhe]hWcYedjheb_icW_djW_d[Zl_W
[nj[hdWbYedjhebZWjW\_b[i_dm^_Y^j^[jof[e\j[dZ_d]WdZh[][d[hWj_edc[Wi#
kh[iWim[bbWi^Whl[ij_d]j_c[i^Wl[X[[dbW_ZZemd$
''$>Wij^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehX[[dWZ[gkWj[boZeYkc[dj[Z5
7fWhj\hecj^[ijWdZWhZZ[iYh_fj_edh[Yecc[dZ[Z_dI[Yj_ed)$+"Wdo]hemj^
ceZ[bj^Wj_iZ[i_]d[Z\ehki[_d_dijhkYj_ed"h[i[WhY^ehfhWYj_Y[h[gk_h[iW
cWdkWbZ[iYh_X_d]j^[ceZ[bijhkYjkh["_dijhkYj_edi\ehj^[ki[e\j^[i_ck#
bWjeh"WdZ]_l_d][nWcfb[ie\ceZ[bYWbYkbWj_ediWim[bbWifej[dj_Wbki[iWdZ
b_c_jWj_edie\j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$J^[b_j[hWjkh[h[\[h[dY[i_dj^_icWdkWb
i^ekbZb_ijj^[ceij_cfehjWdjiekhY[ij^WjZ[iYh_X[j^[ZWjWXWi[\ehj^[ceZ#
[bfWhWc[j[h_pWj_ed"j^[ceZ[bfWhWc[j[hiWdZceZ[b\kdYj_edi"ceZ[b[lWb#
kWj_edWdZj[Y^d_YWbYedZ_j_edi\ehceZ[b_dijWbbWj_ed$
È
2ESEARCHÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENTÈ.EEDS
9khh[djbo" j^[ \ebbem_d] cW_d Z[\_Y_ji [n_ij Wi h[]WhZi j^[ ZWjWXWi[ ed j^[
]hemj^e\fkh[WdZc_n[ZijWdZi"ademb[Z][WXekjcWj^[cWj_YWbh[bWj_edi^_fi
_di_d]b[jh[[WdZijWdZZ[l[befc[dj"WdZj^[ceZ[bie\jmWh[$
È 2ESEARCHÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENTÈ.EEDS +)
È
$ATABASEÈFORÈ-ODELÈ0ARAMETERIZATIONÈANDÈ-ODELÈ6ALIDATION
<eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[bi Wh[ kikWbbo YWb_XhWj[Z ed jme jof[i e\ ZWjW iekhY[i
m^_Y^Wh[_dZ_if[diWXb[\eh]hemj^ceZ[bb_d]WdZm^_Y^Yecfb[c[dj[WY^ej^#
[h0'bed]#j[hc\_[bZ[nf[h_c[dji"m^_Y^fhel_Z[bed]j_c[i[h_[i"m_j^Z[jW_b[Z
_d\ehcWj_ededjh[[WdZijWdZ]hemj^$J^[i[ZWjWh[l[WbcWj^[cWj_YWbh[bWj_ed#
i^_fie\]hemj^Wj_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[WdZijWdZb[l[bWdZf[hc_jceZ[bZ[l[befc[dj"
fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edWdZlWb_ZWj_ed1(_dl[djehoZWjWj^Wjm_bb_cfWhjb[iiZ[jW_b[Z
_d\ehcWj_ed"Xkjm_bb]_l[hWj^[hceh[][d[hWb_d\ehcWj_eded]hemj^_dbWh][h
Wh[Wi$9edj_dkeki\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[iXWi[Zedf[hcWd[djiWcfb[#fbejZ[i_]dWh[
m[bbik_j[Zjej^[fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edWdZ[lWbkWj_ede\ceZ[bi$J^[jmeZWjWiekhY#
[iYecfb[c[dj[WY^ej^[h$
M^_b[ j^[ jh[[ if[Y_[i DehmWo ifhkY[" IYeji f_d[" Yecced X[[Y^ WdZ i[i#
i_b[eWa_dfkh[ijWdZiWff[Whje^Wl[X[[dm[bbh[i[WhY^[Z"j^[ZWjWXWi[\ehj^[
]hemj^e\j^[i[jh[[if[Y_[i_dc_n[ZijWdZiWim[bbWi\ehj^[]hemj^e\:ek]#
bWi\_h";khef[WdbWhY^"ioYWceh["cWfb["YeccedWi^WdZXbWYaWbZ[h_dfkh[WdZ
c_n[ZijWdZie\WbbW][Yecfei_j_edid[[ZijeX[_cfhel[Z$Bed]#j[hcj[ijfbeji
j^Wj Yel[h ]hemj^ h[ifedi[i je W bWh][ hWd][ e\ jh[Wjc[dj c[j^eZi" _dj[di_j_[i
WdZYedi[gk[dY[i"[l[d_dYbkZ_d][njh[c[jh[Wjc[djidejkikWbboYWhh_[Zekj_d
fhWYj_Y["f[hc_jj^[Wffb_YWj_ede\i_ckbWjehijeWd[dbWh][ZhWd][e\i_jkWj_edi
WdZ^[bfWZlWdY[d[mh[i[WhY^jef_Yi$<khj^[hZ[l[befc[djd[[ZiWh[i[[d_dj^[
\_[bZi e\ j[ij fbWdd_d]" [nf[h_c[djWb fbej [ijWXb_i^c[dj WdZ j[ij h[ikbji [lWbkW#
j_ed$>[h["c[j^eZiWdZj[Y^d_gk[iWh[dejo[jZ_h[Yj[ZjemWhZij^[_d\ehcWj_ed
h[gk_h[c[djie\d[mceZ[bWffheWY^[i$
È
&URTHERÈ$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELS
Ed[e\j^[fh_eh_j_[i_ij^[_cfhel[c[dje\j^[i_ckbWj_ede\ikhl_lWbfheX#
WX_b_j_[i WdZ jh[[ cehjWb_jo fheY[ii[i" m^[h[ iec[ ceZ[bi ^Wl[ bWh][ Z[\_Y_[d#
Y_[i$J^[Yedi[gk[dY[iWh[_cfh[Y_i[[ij_cWj[ie\]hem_d]ijeYa_dW][#YbWii\eh#
[ijiWdZfeehfh[Z_Yj_edie\ifWj_WbijhkYjkh_d]_dkd[l[d#W][ZijWdZi$J^[el[h
)&eYYkhh[dY[e\iWblW][YkjiW\j[hhWdZec[l[dji"ikY^WiijehcZWcW]["[c#
f^Wi_p[ij^[_cfehjWdY[e\h_iaceZ[bb_d]$Edbo_\h_ia\WYjehiWh[jWa[d_djeWY#
Yekdj_dcWdW][c[djceZ[bim_bbh[Wb_ij_Yfh[Z_Yj_edie\\eh[ij]hemj^X[feii_#
Xb[j^WjYWdX[ki[Z_dfhWYj_Y[$J^[h[_iWbieWijhed]d[[ZjeceZ[bj^[h[][d#
[hWj_edfheY[iim_j^Yedi_Z[hWj_ede\[\\[YjiXo]Wc[Xhemi_d]iej^Wjceh[h[#
Wb_ij_Yfh[Z_Yj_edi\ehel[hbWff_d]][d[hWj_ediYWdX[cWZ[$CeZ[bb_d]e\meeZ
gkWb_jo WddkWb h_d] m_Zj^" Z[di_jo" adej Z_Wc[j[hi" [jY$ Wff[Whi _dZ_if[diWXb[
\ehh[Wb_ij_YlWbk[YWbYkbWj_ediWdZckbj_#Yh_j[h_Wefj_c_pWj_ede\cWdW][c[djh[#
]_c[i"[if[Y_Wbbo_dj^[fh[i[djjhWdi_j_edjem_Z[ifWY_d]WdZ[Whbo"i[l[h[jh[Wj#
c[djc[Wikh[iWiYkhh[djbo\Wlekh[Z_d\eh[ijho$
+* #(!04%2È IjWdZWhZ_p_d]WdZ9Wj[]eh_p_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
È
3OFTWAREÈ$EVELOPMENT
7ijWdZWhZ_p[ZZ[l[befc[dje\ceZkbWh_p[Zfhe]hWcicWob[WZjeWZ_l_i_ed
e\ bWXekh WdZ fh[l[dj el[hbWff_d] Z[l[befc[dji$ IjWdZWhZ_p[Z _dj[h\WY[i m_bb
mWhhWdjYecfWj_X_b_joe\Z[l[bef[ZceZkb[iWdZj^[_h_dj[hY^Wd][WX_b_joWdZki[
XoZ_\\[h[djh[i[WhY^_dij_jkj_edi$CWdoWb]eh_j^ci\hecj^[b_XhWhoe\Wffhel[Z
o_[bZ[lWbkWj_edfhe]hWciikY^Wij^[YWbYkbWj_ede\^[_]^jYkhl[i"Z_Wc[j[h_d#
Yh[c[dj]hWf^iWdZlebkc[Wh[WbieX[_d]ki[Z_dceZ[hd]hemj^i_ckbWjehi$7
Xh[WaZemd_djeceZkb[i[dikh[ij^[ki[e\j^[i[Wb]eh_j^ciWiYecfed[dji\eh
[_j^[h [lWbkWj_ed eh fh[Z_Yj_ed ie\jmWh[$ D[m fhe]hWc ceZkb[i" [$]$ \eh ijWdZ
ijhkYjkh[WdWboi_iehlWbk[YWbYkbWj_edi"cWoWbieX[ki[Z\ehWYjkWbijWj[[lWbkW#
j_ediWdZfh[Z_Yj_edYWbYkbWj_edi$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ4HEÈRECOMMENDATIONSÈORIGINATEDÈFROMÈTHEÈ3ECTIONÈ&ORESTÈ9IELDÈ3CIENCEÈ
OFÈTHEÈ'ERMANÈ!SSOCIATIONÈOFÈ&ORESTRYÈ2ESEARCHÈ/RGANIZATIONSÈUNDERÈTHEÈ)NTERNATIONALÈ5NIONÈ
OFÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ/RGANIZATIONSÈ)5&2/ È0RETZSCHÈETÈALÈB È4HEYÈBECAMEÈTHEÈNUCLEUSÈOFÈ
PROJECTÈNOÈ1,+
#4
Èh)MPLEMENTINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELSÈASÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ
4OOLSvÈ FUNDEDÈ BYÈ THEÈ %UROPEANÈ #OMMUNITYÈ 4HEÈ PROJECTÈ PARTNERSÈ REVIEWEDÈ ANDÈ REVISEDÈ THEÈ
ORIGINALÈTEXT
2EFERENCES
!RNEYÈ*$È È#OMPUTERÈSIMULATIONÈOFÈ$OUGLAS
FIRÈTREEÈANDÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈ0H$È4HESISÈ/RE
GONÈ3TATEÈ5NIVERSITYÈ#ORVALLISÈÈPP
!SSMANNÈ%È È"ESTOCKUNGSDICHTEÈUNDÈ(OLZERZEUGUNGÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈ n
!SSMANNÈ%È È.ATàRLICHERÈ"ESTOCKUNGSGRADÈUNDÈ:UWACHSÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
!SSMANNÈ%È È4HEÈPRINCIPLESÈOFÈFORESTÈYIELDÈSTUDYÈ0ERGAMONÈ0RESSÈ/XFORDÈÈPP
!SSMANNÈ %È &RANZÈ &È È 6ORLËUFIGEÈ &ICHTEN
%RTRAGSTAFELÈ FàRÈ "AYERNÈ &ORSTWISSÈ #ENTRALBLÈ
n
"ELLAÈ)%È È!ÈNEWÈCOMPETITIONÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈ&ORÈ3CIÈ n
"IBERÈ 0È È +ONSTRUKTIONÈ EINESÈ EINZELBAUMORIENTIERTENÈ 7ACHSTUMSSIMULATORSÈ FàRÈ &ICHTEN
"UCHEN
-ISCHBESTËNDEÈIMÈ3OLLINGÈ"ERÈ&ORSCHUNGSZÈ7ALDÚKOSYSTÈ! ÈPP
"ROCKHAUSÈ È$IEÈ%NZYKLOPËDIEÈINÈÈ"ËNDENÈTHÈEDNÈ"ROCKHAUSÈ,EIPZIG
"ROCKHAUSÈ È$IEÈ%NZYKLOPËDIEÈINÈÈ"ËNDENÈTHÈEDNÈ"ROCKHAUSÈ,EIPZIG
"URKHARTÈ(%È&ARRARÈ+$È!MATEISÈ2,È$ANIELSÈ2&È È3IMULATIONÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈGROWTHÈANDÈ
STANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈINÈLOBLOLLYÈPINEÈPLANTATIONSÈONÈCUTOVERÈSITE
PREPAREDÈAREASÈ0UBLÈ&73
È6IRGINIAÈ0OLYTECHNICÈ)NSTITUTEÈANDÈ3TATEÈ5NIVERSITYÈ"LACKSBURGÈ6IRGINIAÈÈPP
#LUTTERÈ*,È"ENNETTÈ&!È È$IAMETERÈDISTRIBUTIONSÈINÈOLD
FIELDÈSLASHÈPINEÈPLANTATIONSÈ2EPÈÈ
'EORGIAÈ&ORESTRYÈ2ESEARCHÈ#OUNCILÈ!TLANTAÈÈPP
$ANIELSÈ2&È"URKHARTÈ(%È È3IMULATIONÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈGROWTHÈANDÈSTANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈ
INÈ MANAGEDÈ LOBLOLLYÈ PINEÈ PLANTATIONSÈ 0UBLÈ &73
È $IVISIONÈ OFÈ &ORESTRYÈ ANDÈ 7ILDLIFEÈ
2ESEARCHÈ 6ANCOUVERÈ 0OLYTECHNICÈ )NSTITUTEÈ ANDÈ 3TATEÈ 5NIVERSITYÈ È 6ANCOUVERÈ 0OLYTECHNICÈ
)NSTITUTEÈANDÈ3TATEÈ5NIVERSITYÈ6ANCOUVERÈÈPP
2EFERENCES ++
0RETZSCHÈ(È È!NALYSISÈANDÈMODELINGÈOFÈSPATIALÈSTANDÈSTRUCTURESÈ-ETHODOLOGICALÈCONSIDERA
TIONSÈBASEDÈONÈMIXEDÈBEECHÈnÈLARCHÈSTANDSÈINÈ,OWERÈ3AXONYÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
0RETZSCHÈ(È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSÈ"LACKWELLÈ"ERLINÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ (È $URSKYÈ *È È %VALUIERUNGÈ VONÈ 7ALDWACHSTUMSSIMULATORENÈ AUFÈ "AUM
È UNDÈ
"ESTANDESEBENEÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈ n
0RETZSCHÈ(È+AHNÈ-È È-ODELLINGÈGROWTHÈOFÈ"AVARIANÈMIXEDÈSTANDSÈINÈAÈCHANGINGÈENVIRON
MENTÈ#ARINGÈFORÈTHEÈFORESTÈRESEARCHÈINÈAÈCHANGINGÈWORLDÈ0ROCÈTHÈ)5&2/È7ORLDÈ#ONGRESSÈ
nÈ!UGÈ4AMPEREÈ&INLANDÈPPÈn
0RETZSCHÈ(È"IBERÈ0È$URSKYÈ*ÈA È4HEÈSINGLEÈTREEÈBASEDÈSTANDÈSIMULATORÈ3),6!È#ONSTRUCTIONÈ
APPLICATIONÈANDÈEVALUATIONÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ
0RETZSCHÈ(È"IBERÈ0È$URSKYÈ*ÈVONÈ'ADOWÈ+È(ASENAUERÈ(È+ËNDLERÈ'È+ENKÈ'È+UBLINÈ%È.AGELÈ*È
0UKKALAÈ4È3KOVSGAARDÈ*0È3ODTKEÈ2È3TERBAÈ(ÈB È2ECOMMENDATIONSÈFORÈSTANDARDIZEDÈ
DOCUMENTATIONÈANDÈFURTHERÈDEVELOPMENTÈOFÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈ
n
0UKKALAÈ 4È È 3IMULATIONÈ MODELÈ FORÈ NATURALÈ REGENERATIONÈ OFÈ 0INUSÈ SYLVESTRISÈ 0ICEAÈ ABIESÈ
"ETULAÈPENDULAÈANDÈ"ETULAÈPUBESCENSÈ3ILVAÈ&ENNÈn
0UKKALAÈ 4È -IINAÈ *È È !È METHODÈ FORÈ STOCHASTICÈ MULTIOBJECTIVEÈ OPTIMIZATIONÈ OFÈ STANDÈ
MANAGEMENTÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
2EINEKEÈ,(È È0ERFECTINGÈAÈSTAND
DENSITYÈINDEXÈFORÈEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTSÈ*È!GRICÈ2ESÈ n
2EYNOLDSÈ -È "URKHARTÈ (È $ANIELSÈ 2È È 0ROCEDURESÈ FORÈ STATISTICALÈ VALIDATIONÈ OFÈ STOCHASTICÈ
SIMULATIONÈMODELSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈ n
3CHWAPPACHÈ!È È7ACHSTHUMÈUNDÈ%RTRAGÈNORMALERÈ+IEFERNBESTËNDEÈINÈDERÈNORDDEUTSCHENÈ
4IEFEBENEÈ3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ(EIDELBERGÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
3CHWAPPACHÈ!È È7ACHSTUMÈUNDÈ%RTRAGÈNORMALERÈ&ICHTENBESTËNDEÈ3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ(EI
DELBERGÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
3LOBODAÈ"È È+OLMOGOROW
3UZUKIÈUNDÈDIEÈSTOCHASTISCHEÈ$IFFERENTIALGLEICHUNGÈALSÈ"ESCHREI
BUNGSMITTELÈ DERÈ "ESTANDESEVOLUTIONÈ 0ROCÈ )5&2/È #ONGRÈ "EITRËGEÈ ZURÈ :UWACHSFORSCHUNGÈ
PARTÈÈ-ITTÈ&ORSTLÈ"UNDES
6ERSUCHSANSTÈ7IENÈn
3UZUKIÈ 4È È &ORESTÈ TRANSITIONÈ ASÈ AÈ STOCHASTICÈ PROCESSÈ 0ROCÈ )5&2/È #ONGRÈ "EITRËGEÈ ZURÈ
:UWACHSFORSCHUNGÈ-ITTÈ&ORSTLÈ"UNDES
6ERSUCHSANSTÈ7IENÈn
3TERBAÈ(È-ONSERUDÈ2È È6ALIDATIONÈOFÈTHEÈSINGLEÈTREEÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ02/'.!53È
WITHÈ PERMANENTÈ PLOTÈ DATAÈ 0ROCÈ È )5&2/È THÈ 7ORLDÈ #ONGRESSÈ nÈ !UGÈ È 4AMPEREÈ
&INLANDÈPPÈn
3TERBAÈ(È-OSERÈ-È-ONSERUDÈ2È È0ROGNAUSÈnÈEINÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈFàRÈ2EIN
ÈUNDÈ
-ISCHBESTËNDEÈ«STERREICHÈ&ORSTZTGÈn
5NITEDÈ.ATIONSÈ#ONFERENCEÈONÈ%NVIRONMENTÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENTÈ È2EPORTÈOFÈTHEÈ5NITEDÈ.ATI
ONSÈ#ONFERENCEÈONÈ%NVIRONMENTÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENTÈnÈ*UNEÈÈ2IOÈDEÈ*ANEIROÈÈPP
6ANCLAYÈ*+È3KOVSGAARDÈ*0È È%VALUATIONÈFORÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈ%COLÈ-ODELÈn
6ANÈ $EUSENÈ 0#È "IGINGÈ '3È È 34!'È AÈ STANDÈ GENERATORÈ FORÈ MIXEDÈ SPECIESÈ STANDSÈ VERSIONÈ
È 2ESÈ .OTEÈ È .ORTHERNÈ #ALIFORNIAÈ &ORESTÈ 9IELDÈ #OOPERATIVEÈ $EPARTMENTÈ OFÈ &ORESTRYÈ
2ESEARCHÈANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ"ERKELEYÈÈPP
6ONÈ'ADOWÈ+È È5NTERSUCHUNGENÈZURÈ+ONSTRUKTIONÈVONÈ7UCHSMODELLENÈFàRÈSCHNELLWàCH
SIGEÈ0LANTAGENBAUMARTENÈ&ORSTLÈ&ORSCHUNGSBERICHTEÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
6ONÈ'UTTENBERGÈ!È È7ACHSTUMÈUNDÈ%RTRAGÈDERÈ&ICHTEÈIMÈ(OCHGEBIRGEÈ6ERLAGÈ$EUTICKEÈ
7IENÈ,EIPZIGÈÈPP
2EFERENCES +-
7ENSELÈ ,#È $AUGERTHYÈ 0*È È #!#4/3È USERSÈ GUIDEÈ THEÈ #ALIFORNIAÈ CONIFERÈ TIMBERÈ OUTPUTÈ
SIMULATORÈ2ESÈ.OTEÈÈ.ORTHERNÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ&ORESTÈ9IELDÈ#OOPERATIVEÈ$EPARTMENTÈOFÈ&ORE
STRYÈ2ESEARCHÈANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ"ERKELEYÈÈPP
7ENSELÈ ,#È +OEHLERÈ *2È È !È TREEÈ GROWTHÈ PROJECTIONÈ SYSTEMÈ FORÈ .ORTHERNÈ #ALIFORNIAÈ CONI
FEROUSÈFORESTSÈ2ESÈ.OTEÈÈ.ORTHERNÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ&ORESTÈ9IELDÈ#OOPERATIVEÈ$EPARTMENTÈOFÈ
&ORESTRYÈANDÈ2ESEARCHÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ#ALIFORNIAÈ"ERKELEYÈÈPP
7IEDEMANNÈ%È È%RTRAGSTAFELNÈDERÈWICHTIGENÈ(OLZARTENÈBEIÈVERSCHIEDENERÈ$URCHFORSTUNGÈ
3CHAPERÈ(ANNOVERÈÈPP
7ORLDÈ #OMMISSIONÈ OFÈ %NVIRONMENTÈ ANDÈ $EVELOPMENTÈ È /URÈ COMMONÈ FUTUREÈ 2EPORTÈ OFÈ
THEÈ 7ORLDÈ #OMMISSIONÈ OFÈ %NVIRONMENTÈ ANDÈ $EVELOPMENTÈ h"RUNDTLANDÈ 2EPORTv È /XFORDÈ
5NIVERSITYÈ0RESSÈ/XFORDÈÈPP
9ODAÈ +È +IRAÈ 4È /GAWAÈ (È (OZUMIÈ +È È 3ELF
THINNINGÈ INÈ OVERCROWDEDÈ PUREÈ STANDSÈ UNDERÈ
CULTIVATEDÈANDÈNATURALÈCONDITIONSÈ)NTRASPECIFICÈCOMPETITIONÈAMONGÈHIGHERÈPLANTSÈ8) È*È)NSTÈ
0OLYTECHNICSÈÈ/SAKAÈ#ITYÈ5NIVÈ3ERÈ$ n
#(!04%2È +/
$ESCRIPTIONÈOFÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELSÈ5SED
;khef[Wd[nf[hji_dj^[\_[bZe\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]^Wl[Z[l[bef[Zj^[_h
emdjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi$J^kij^[_dj[dj_ede\j^[mehafh[i[dj[Z_dj^_iXeea_i
jeWbbem[WY^ceZ[b[hjecW_djW_d_dZ[f[dZ[dY[WdZj^[WX_b_jojeYedj_dk[j^[
Wffb_YWj_ede\j^[ceZ[bWi^[%i^[Y^eei[i$M_j^j^_iij[fm[Wle_Zj^[Z[l[bef#
c[dje\ed[Æikf[hceZ[bÇ"m^_Y^_dj^[bed]hkdcWoZ[ijheoj^[h[]_edWbWi#
f[Yjim_j^_djh[[ceZ[b_d]"\b[n_X_b_jo"ceZ[bZ_l[hi_jo"_ddelWj_edWdZj^[Yecf[#
j_j_edWced]ceZ[bZ[l[bef[hi"m^_Y^_i_cfehjWdj\eh[d^WdY_d]j^[j[Y^debe]o
WdZWZZh[ii_d]if[Y_\_Y[dZ#ki[hd[[Zi$7bj^ek]^[WY^jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bZ[Wbi
m_j^_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i"j^[h[Wh[ikXijWdj_WbZ_\\[h[dY[im_j^_dj^[ceZ[bZ[f[dZ#
_d]edj^[h[]_edWbWffb_YWj_ed"j^[ZWjWWlW_bWX_b_joj^[[dZki[hd[[ZiWdZj^[
f^_beief^oj^[ceZ[bZ[l[bef[h^WiY^ei[d\ehiebl_d]fheXb[cih[bWj[Zjejh[[
]hemj^ceZ[b_d]$?dj^[\ebbem_d]"m[]_l[Wdel[hl_[me\j^[\_l[Z_\\[h[djjh[[
]hemj^ceZ[bi_d;khef[i[b[Yj[Z\ehj^[mehafh[i[dj[Z_dj^[Xeea$Dej[j^Wj
ie\jmWh[Z[ceije[WY^e\j^[fh[i[dj[ZceZ[biYWdX[eXjW_d[Z\hecj^[h[ifed#
i_Xb[ceZ[bZ[l[bef[h$
È
4HEÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMÈ"7).0RO
@h][dDW][b'"CWjj^_WiIY^c_Zj(
!BSTRACTÈ)NÈTHEÈPASTÈDECADEÈ'ERMANÈFORESTÈPOLICYÈHASÈUNDERGONEÈAÈMAJORÈSHIFTÈFROMÈPUREÈ
STANDSÈTOÈMIXED
SPECIESÈSTANDSÈ#ONSEQUENTLYÈTHEÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ3TATIONÈOFÈ,OWERÈ3AXONYÈ
.&6 È HASÈ FOCUSEDÈ ITSÈ RESEARCHÈ ONÈ THEÈ CONSTRUCTIONÈ OFÈ AÈ TREEÈ GROWTHÈ MODELÈ 4HISÈ GROWTHÈ
MODELÈ WASÈ INCORPORATEDÈ INTOÈ AÈ COMPUTERÈ SOFTWAREÈ PROGRAMÈ "7).0RO È WHICHÈ ALLOWSÈ FORÈ
FORESTÈGROWTHÈSIMULATIONÈANDÈSTRATEGYÈDEVELOPMENTÈ)NÈADDITIONÈTHISÈPROGRAMÈCANÈBEÈUSEDÈ
FORÈPERMANENTÈPLOTÈINVENTORYÈTOÈCALCULATEÈFUTUREÈGROWTHÈTHINNINGÈANDÈTIMBERÈHARVESTÈATÈ
THEÈENTERPRISEÈLEVELÈ4HEÈPROGRAMÈISÈUSEDÈBYÈTHEÈ&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈOFÈ,OWERÈ3AXONY
' [#cW_b0`k[h][d$dW][b6d\l$]mZ]$Z[
( <eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo")-&-/=jj_d][d"=[hcWdo
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
,& #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
J^hek]^ekjceije\=[hcWdoi_bl_YkbjkhWbfeb_Y_[i^Wl[Y^Wd][ZZkh_d]h[#
Y[djZ[YWZ[i$J^[bed]#j[hc[Yebe]_YWb\eh[ijZ[l[befc[djfeb_Yoe\Bem[hIWne#
doW_ciWjkd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z\eh[iji\ehj^[ijWj[#emd[Z\eh[ijWh[WBzM;1Ej#
je'/./"'//'$?d\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj"o_[bZjWXb[i^Wl[X[[dki[Zie\Wh"m^_Y^Wh[
Z[i_]d[Z\eh[l[d#W][Zi_d]b[if[Y_[iijWdZi$?\j^[i[o_[bZjWXb[iWh[Wffb_[Zje
c_n[ZijWdZi"\eh[ij[hii[fWhWj[j^[Z_\\[h[djif[Y_[il_hjkWbboWdZWffboj^[jWXb[i
jej^[h[ikbj_d]fkh[ijWdZi$If[Y_Wbc_n[Z\eh[ijo_[bZjWXb[i^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z
8edd[cWdd'/)/19^h_ijcWdd'/)/1M_[Z[cWdd'/*("Xkjm[h[dej\ekdZkiW#
Xb[_dfhWYj_YWb\eh[ijho"X[YWki[_jmWidejfeii_Xb[jeWffboj^[cjej^[]h[WjlW#
h_[joe\feii_Xb[if[Y_[iWdZjof[ie\c_njkh[$
D[mjh[Wjc[dji_$[$m_Z[hifWY_d]"Yhefjh[[i[b[Yj_edWdZY^Wd]_d][dl_hed#
c[dj_$[$^_]^[hd_jhe][d_dfkj_dZkY[]hemj^fWjj[hdidejh[fh[i[dj[Z_do_[bZ
jWXb[iIf[bbcWdd'//'$<eh[ijcWdW][c[djj^[h[\eh[d[[ZiWd[m_dijhkc[dj"
je^[bf_dfbWdd_d]"cWdW][c[djWdZWdWboi_ie\fkh[WdZc_n[ZijWdZi$J^[i[
m[h[j^[h[Wiedi\ehZ[l[bef_d]Wi_d]b[jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bWjj^[<eh[ijH[i[WhY^
IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo$J^[ceZ[bi^ekbZfhel_Z[_d\ehcWj_edWXekjWijWdZi_j#
kWj_edWdZWijWdZÉiZ[l[befc[dj_dfhWYj_YWb\eh[ijho$?dWZZ_j_ed_ji^ekbZfhe#
l_Z[_d\ehcWj_ed\ehej^[h]hekfiikY^WibWdZiYWf[WhY^_j[YjiWdZ[dl_hedc[d#
jWb_iji$J^[fhe]hWc8M?DmWiW\_hijij[fjeYh[Wj[ikY^WfbWdd_d]_dijhkc[dj
DW][b'//,$8o_dj[]hWj_d]j^[]hemj^ceZ[b_djeWd[Wiojeki[Yecfkj[hceZ#
[b" \eh[ij[hi YekbZ WYY[ii _d\ehcWj_ed WXekj j^[ ijWjki WdZ j^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\
fkh[WdZc_n[ZijWdZiedWF9$
J^[<eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo^WiW^k][]hemj^WdZo_[bZ[n#
f[h_c[djZWjWfeebe\WXekj)+&&fbejim^_Y^Wh[iYWjj[h[ZWbbel[hdehj^[hd=[h#
cWdo$J^[ZWjWYedi_ije\bed]#j[hci[h_[ie\Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^jc[Wikh[c[dji
jWa[d\heci_d]b[jh[[i$J^[h[Wh[dkc[hekilWbk[i\ehYhemdXWi[WdZW\[m\eh
Yhemdm_Zj^$Edj^[d[m[hh[i[WhY^fbejijh[[YeehZ_dWj[im[h[Wbiec[Wikh[Z$
J^[h[_ib_jjb[_d\ehcWj_ededkdjh[Wj[Zfbeji$J^_i_d\ehcWj_edZ[\_Y_jm_bb^ef[#
\kbboX[\_bb[ZXoZWjW\hec\eh[ijfh[i[hl[i$J^[f[hcWd[djfbej_dl[djeh_[ij^Wj
^Wl[X[[dijWhj[Z_di[l[hWb\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yjim_bbX[_cfehjWdj\ehceZ[blWb_ZWj_ed$
?dehZ[hjeeXjW_d_d\ehcWj_edWXekjh[][d[hWj_edi[l[hWb[nf[h_c[dji^Wl[X[[d
i[jkf$J^[ZWjWXWi[mWij^[cW_dfh[h[gk_i_j[\ehj^[fWhWc[j[h_iWj_ede\i_d]b[
jh[[]hemj^WdZcehjWb_jo\kdYj_edi"^[_]^jYkhl[i"YhemdXWi[WdZYhemdm_Zj^
\kdYj_edi"WZ_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jZX^Z_ijh_Xkj_ed][d[hWjehXWi[Zedj^[
M[_Xkbb\kdYj_edDW][bWdZ8_]_d]'//+WdZj^[Z[l[befc[dje\WifWj_WbijWdZ
ijhkYjkh[][d[hWjehFh[jpiY^'//)$7ZZ_j_edWbZWjWikY^Wii[]c[dj[Zij[cZ_#
Wc[j[hWdZXhWdY^Z_Wc[j[hm[h[ki[ZjefWhWc[j[h_i[jWf[h\kdYj_ediWdZmeeZ
gkWb_joceZ[biIY^c_Zj(&&'$Hkb[#XWi[Zioij[ci\ehWffbo_d]j^_dd_d]h[]_c[i
_d ]hemj^ i_ckbWj_edi ^Wl[ X[[d Xk_bj m_j^ekj ki_d] [cf_h_YWb ZWjW [$]$ If[bb#
cWdd[jWb$'///1:XX[b[hWdZIf[bbcWdd(&&'17bX[hj(&&($
J^[\_hijceZ[bl[hi_edWdZj^[i_ckbWjeh^Wl[X[[d_cfhel[ZXoh[fWhWc[#
j[h_iWj_edXWi[ZedWd[nj[dZ[ZZWjWXWi[WdZj^[Z[l[befc[djWdZ_cfb[c[djW#
j_ede\\khj^[h\kdYj_ediDW][b[jWb$(&&("[$]$WmeeZgkWb_joceZkb[IY^c_Zj
(&&'$J^[h[ikbj_d]i_bl_YkbjkhWbZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[c:II8M?DFheYedi_iji
e\j^h[[cW`ehXbeYai<_]$*$'0ZWjWXWi["fhe]hWchekj_d[iWdZfh[fWhWj_ed%fh[i#
[djWj_ede\h[ikbji$J^[ZWjWXWi[ceZkb[Yel[hij^[hWm_dfkjZWjW"j^[Yecfb[j[Z
ZWjWi[jW\j[hZWjW][d[hWj_edWdZj^[ijeh_d]e\YWbYkbWj[Zh[ikbjiXkjWbieceZ[b
È 4HEÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMÈ"7).0RO ,'
&IGÈÈ-AINÈSTRUCTUREÈOFÈTHEÈSILVICULTURALÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ"7).0RO
fWhWc[j[hi"Z[\Wkbji\ehZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[iWdZj^h[i^ebZlWbk[i"[jY$J^[fhe]hWc
hekj_d[iWh[d[Y[iiWhoje^WdZb[j^[_dfkjZWjW"][d[hWj[c_ii_d]jh[[fWhWc[j[hi
\eh ceZ[b _d_j_Wb_iWj_ed" ]hemj^ WdZ j^_dd_d]%^Whl[ij_d] fh[Z_Yj_ed" YWbYkbWj_ed
e\h[ikbjiWdZl_ikWb_iWj_ed$J^[fh[i[djWj_ede\h[ikbji_dYbkZ[il_ikWb_iWj_ede\
ZX^"^[_]^jZ_ijh_Xkj_ediWdZ^[_]^jYkhl[i"ijWdZl_ikWb_iWj_edWdZ\ehcWjj[ZjW#
Xb[iYedjW_d_d]lWh_ekii_d]b[jh[["ijWdZWdZijhkYjkhWb_d\ehcWj_ed$
J^[fhe]hWcl[hi_edi8M?DWdZ8M?DFhem[h[ki[Z_dj^[X[]_dd_d]cW_d#
bo\ehh[i[WhY^WdZjeWii_ijj^[Z[l[befc[dje\i_bl_YkbjkhWbh[Yecc[dZWj_edi\eh
ijWdZjh[Wjc[djWYYehZ_d]jej^[BzM;fhe]hWc"Xkjj^[o^Wl[X[[dWbieWlW_b#
WXb[je\eh[ij[hi_dj^[\_[bZ$8oZ_ijh_Xkj_d]j^[fhe]hWcel[hj^[_dj[hd[jjej^[
fkXb_Y \hec j^[ X[]_dd_d]" Xej^ j^[ ]hemj^ ceZ[b WdZ j^[ Yecfkj[h fhe]hWc
YekbZX[_cfhel[Zj^hek]^_dfkjWdZYh_j_YWbWdWboi_iXo[nj[hdWbki[hi$H[Y[dj#
bo"j^[fhe]hWc^WiX[[d_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[\eh[ijfbWdd_d]fheY[iie\j^[<eh[ij
FbWdd_d]7][dYoe\Bem[hIWnedo_djmeZ_\\[h[djmWoi$
J^[IjWj[<eh[ijI[hl_Y[e\Bem[hIWnedo^Wi_dijWbb[Zkfje'&jhW_d_d]fbeji
_d[WY^\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjjeZ_iYkiii_bl_YkbjkhWb]k_Z[b_d[i_dj^[\_[bZ$J^[fhe]hWc
8M?DFhefhel_Z[il_ikWb_iWj_ed"WdWboi_ie\j^[Ykhh[djijWjkiWdZWdWboi_ie\iY[#
dWh_ei_ckbWj_edi\ehj^_id[]ej_Wj_edfheY[iiki_d]ZWjW\hecj^[jhW_d_d]fbeji$
CWha_d]ie\Yhefjh[[iWdZj^_dd_d]iYWdX[[lWbkWj[ZZ_h[Yjbo"Wim[bbWij^[_h[\#
\[Yjiedj^[\kjkh[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[fbej$J^[[\\[Yjie\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[dj
Wbj[hdWj_l[iYWdX[_bbkijhWj[Z"[$]$j^[_cfhel[c[dje\Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^e\Yhef
jh[[iYWki[ZXoj^_dd_d]i\hecWXel[YecfWh[Zjej^_dd_d]i\hecX[bem$I_dY[
,( #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
Wiiehjc[djWdZmeeZgkWb_johekj_d[i^Wl[X[[d_cfb[c[dj[Zj^[i_ckbWjeh[d#
WXb[ij^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\j^[[\\[Yje\Z_\\[h[djYhefjh[[i[b[Yj_ediWdZj^_dd_d]h[#
]_c[iedWiiehjc[djijhkYjkh[WdZmeeZgkWb_joYecfei_j_ed$
<ehc_Z#j[hcijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]Wif[Y_\_Yl[hi_ede\j^[fhe]hWc8M?DFhe
^WiX[[dZ[l[bef[Z_dehZ[hjeYedZkYjW\eh[YWijedj^[[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bki_d]
f[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbej_dl[djehoZWjW$J^[jme#f^Wi[f[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbej_d#
l[djehom^_Y^mWi_dijWbb[Z_dj^[c_Z#'//&i_dj^[\_hij\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yjie\Bem#
[hIWnedo8YacWdd[jWb$'//.1:W^cWdZIWXehemia_'//.fhel_Z[iWd[nY[b#
b[dj ZWjWXWi[ \eh j^[ _d_j_Wb_iWj_ed e\ W i_d]b[ jh[[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh$ I_d]b[ jh[[
]hemj^ceZ[biWh[j^[ceijWffhefh_Wj[jeebi\ehkfZWj_d]^_]^h[iebkj_edi_d]b[
jh[[_dl[djehoZWjWX[YWki[j^[oWbbem\eh]hemj^fh[Z_Yj_edm_j^ekjW]]h[]Wj_d]
jh[[b[l[b_djeijWdZb[l[b_d\ehcWj_edFh[jpiY^(&&'$7Z_i_dj[]hWj_ede\kfZWj#
[ZijWdZb[l[blWh_WXb[i_djejh[[lWh_WXb[iWij^[oWh[d[[Z[Z\ehceijfbWdd_d]
Z[Y_i_edi_iZ_if[diWXb[$
J^[<eh[ijFbWdd_d]7][dYoe\Bem[hIWnedod[[Z[ZWfbWdd_d]jeebj^Wj\eh[#
YWijij^[\kjkh[c_Z#j[hcWcekdje\j^_dd_d]WdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ijWim[bb
Wij^[\kjkh[ijWjkie\j^[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i["WbieYedjhebb_d]j^[Yedl[h][dY[m_j^
h[if[Yjjej^[BzM;fhe]hWc$J^[h[\eh[Wl[hi_ede\j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehmWi
YedY[_l[Z m^_Y^ _i [if[Y_Wbbo WZWfj[Z je j^[i[ Z[cWdZi$ J^_i fhe]hWc l[hi_ed
YWbb[ZAIFWkjecWj_YWbbofh[Z_Yjij^[]hemj^e\^kdZh[Ziehj^ekiWdZie\iWcfb[
fbejim_j^_ded[i_ckbWj_edhkd$J^_dd_d]WdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ijWh[Wffb_[Z
WkjecWj_YWbboki_d]Whkb[#XWi[Zioij[c"m^[h[Wij^[ijh[d]j^WdZjof[e\j^_d#
d_d]%^Whl[ijYWdX[Yedjhebb[Zki_d]Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i$M_j^_dj^[?JCfhe`[Yj
j^[\kdYj_edie\j^[fhe]hWcAIF^Wl[X[[d[d^WdY[ZWdZj^[Z[Y_i_edikffehj
ioij[c AIFU:II \eh W ikffehj e\ ijhWj[]_Y \eh[ij fbWdd_d] ^Wi X[[d Z[l[bef[Z$
Iec[e\j^[cW_dceZkb[ij^Wj^Wl[X[[d_cfb[c[dj[Z_djeW:II_dehZ[hje_c#
fhel[j^[fhe]hWcAIFWh[Wi\ebbemi0
v 7ZWjWXWi[\ehijeh_d]^k][Wcekdjie\_dfkjZWjWWdZi_ckbWj_edh[ikbji$
v 7ZWjW_dj[h\WY[\ehWd[Wio[nY^Wd][e\ZWjWm_j^j^[<eh[ijFbWdd_d]7][d#
Yo$
v 7jeeb\ehWdWkjecWj_YWii_]dc[dje\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[jeijWdZjof[i
m_j^h[if[Yjjej^[BzM;fhe]hWc$
v Jeebi\ehYWbYkbWj_d]\h[gk[dYoWdZlebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_ediXoZX^WdZWiiehj#
c[djYbWii[i$
v 7jeeb\ehWdWboi_d]j^[h[][d[hWj_edijWjki$
v 7 jeeb \eh YWbYkbWj_d] \eh[ij Z_ijh_Yj Wh[Wi Yel[h[Z Xo i_c_bWh ijWdZ jof[i"
m^[h[Wij^[i_c_bWh_joYWdX[Wii[ii[Z\ehWlWh_[joe\ijWdZlWh_WXb[iWiijWdZ#
_d]lebkc["[jY$
2EFERENCES
!LBERTÈ -È È :URÈ 0ROGNOSEÈ DERÈ :
"AUM
!USWAHLÈ INÈ -ISCHBESTËNDENÈ nÈ EINÈ REGELBASIERTERÈ
!LGORITHMUSÈ FàRÈ WALDBAULICHEÈ 0ROGNOSE
È UNDÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSMODELLEÈ !LLGÈ &ORSTÈ *AGDZGÈ
n
"ÚCKMANNÈ4È3PELLMANNÈ(È(àSINGÈ&È È.EUKONZEPTIONÈUNDÈ7EITERENTWICKLUNGÈDERÈ&ORST
EINRICHTUNGÈINÈDENÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDESFORSTENÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
2EFERENCES ,)
"ONNEMANNÈ!È È$ERÈGLEICHALTRIGEÈ-ISCHBESTANDÈVONÈ+IEFERÈUNDÈ"UCHEÈ-ITTÈ&ORSTWIRTSCHÈ
&ORSTWISSÈÈÈPP
#HRISTMANNÈ È %RTRAGSTAFELÈ FàRÈ +IEFERN
&ICHTEN
-ISCHBESTANDÈ )NÈ 7IEDEMANNÈ %È ED È
%RTRAGSTAFELNÈ DERÈ WICHTIGSTENÈ (OLZARTENÈ BEIÈ VERSCHIEDENERÈ $URCHFORSTUNGÈ SOWIEÈ EINIGERÈ
-ISCHBESTANDSFORMENÈ3CHAPERÈ(ANNOVERÈÈPP
$AHMÈ3È3ABOROWSKIÈ*È È.EUKONZEPTIONÈDERÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ+ONTROLLSTICHPROBEÈ$EUT
SCHERÈ6ERBANDÈ&ORSTLICHERÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈ3EKTIONÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ"IOMETRIEÈUNDÈ)NFORMA
TIKÈÈ4AGUNGÈ&REIBURGÈPPÈn
$ÚBBELERÈ(È3PELLMANNÈ(È È-ETHODOLOGICALÈAPPROACHÈTOÈSIMULATEÈANDÈEVALUATEÈSILVICULTU
RALÈSTRATEGIESÈUNDERÈCLIMATEÈCHANGEÈ'ERMANÈFORESTÈSECTORÈUNDERÈGLOBALÈCHANGEÈ&ORSTWISSÈ
#ENTRALBÈ3UPPLÈ n
.AGELÈ*È È!NWENDUNGSPROGRAMMÈZURÈ"ESTANDESBEWERTUNGÈUNDÈZURÈ0ROGNOSEÈDERÈ"ESTAN
DESENTWICKLUNGÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
.AGELÈ*È"IGINGÈ'3È È3CHËTZUNGÈDERÈ0ARAMETERÈDERÈ7EIBULLFUNKTIONÈZURÈ'ENERIERUNGÈVONÈ
$URCHMESSERVERTEILUNGENÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZGÈ n
.AGELÈ *È !LBERTÈ -È 3CHMIDTÈ -È È $ASÈ WALDBAULICHEÈ 0ROGNOSE
È UNDÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSMODELLÈ
"7).0ROÈÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
/TTOÈ(*È È,ANGFRISTIGEÈÚKOLOGISCHEÈ7ALDBAUPLANUNGÈFàRÈDIEÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDES
FORSTENÈ "DÈ È !USÈ DEMÈ 7ALDEÈ (EFTÈ È -ITTEILUNGENÈ AUSÈ DERÈ .IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ ,ANDES
FORSTVERWALTUNGÈ7OLFENBàTTELÈÈPP
/TTOÈ(*È È,ANGFRISTIGEÈÚKOLOGISCHEÈ7ALDBAUPLANUNGÈFàRÈDIEÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDES
FORSTENÈ "DÈ È !USÈ DEMÈ 7ALDEÈ (EFTÈ È -ITTEILUNGENÈ AUSÈ DERÈ .IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ ,ANDES
FORSTVERWALTUNGÈ7OLFENBàTTELÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ (È È !NALYSEÈ UNDÈ 2EPRODUKTIONÈ RËUMLICHERÈ "ESTANDESSTRUKTURENÈ 6ERSUCHEÈ MITÈ
DEMÈ 3TRUKTURGENERATORÈ 3425'%.È 3CHRIFTENÈ AUSÈ DERÈ &ORSTLICHENÈ &AKULTËTÈ DERÈ 5NIVERSITËTÈ
'ÚTTINGENÈ UNDÈ DERÈ .IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ &ORSTLICHENÈ 6ERSUCHSANSTALTÈ "DÈ È 3AUERLËNDERÈ
&RANKFURTÈAMÈ-AINÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ(È È7ALDWACHSTUMSFORSCHUNGÈ)HREÈ"EDEUTUNGÈFàRÈDIEÈ.UTZUNGÈUNDÈDENÈ3CHUTZÈ
VONÈ7ALDÚKOSYSTEMENÈ"EITRÈ&ORSTWIRTSCHÈ,ANDSCHAFTSÚKOLÈn
3CHMIDTÈ -È È 0ROGNOSEMODELLEÈ FàRÈ AUSGEWËHLTEÈ (OLZQUALITËTSMERKMALEÈ WICHTIGERÈ "AU
MARTENÈ $ISSERTATIONÈ &AKULTËTÈ FàRÈ &ORSTWISSENSCHAFTENÈ UNDÈ 7ALDÚKOLOGIEÈ 5NIVERSITËTÈ
'ÚTTINGENÈÈPP
3PELLMANNÈ(È È"EITRËGEÈDERÈ&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈUNDÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈFàRÈEINÈFORSTLICHESÈ)NFORMA
TIONSSYSTEMÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈn
3PELLMANNÈ(È.AGELÈ*È"ÚCKMANNÈ4È È3UMMARISCHEÈ.UTZUNGSPLANUNGÈAUFÈDERÈ"ASISÈVONÈ
"ETRIEBSINVENTURENÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZGÈ n
7IEDEMANNÈ%È È$ERÈGLEICHALTRIGEÈ&ICHTEN
"UCHEN
-ISCHBESTANDÈ-ITTÈ&ORSTWIRTSCHÈ&ORST
WISSÈn
,* #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
È
4HEÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELÈ-/3%3È
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h)"=[eh]A_dZ[hcWdd*"F[jhWIj[_dc[jp+
!BSTRACTÈ -/3%3È ISÈ AÈ DISTANCE
DEPENDENTÈ TREEÈ GROWTHÈ MODELÈ 4HEÈ MODELÈ HASÈ BEENÈ
DEVELOPEDÈ USINGÈ PERMANENTÈ RESEARCHÈ PLOTÈ DATAÈ FROMÈ !USTRIAÈ ANDÈ 3WITZERLANDÈ INCLUDINGÈ
MOREÈTHANÈÈ
YEARÈGROWTHÈPERIODSÈRECORDEDÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈSPECIESÈFORESTSÈ
4HEÈ MODELÈ COVERSÈ NINEÈ TREEÈ SPECIESÈ /NEÈ ADDITIONALÈ APPLICATIONÈ HASÈ BEENÈ DEVELOPEDÈ FORÈ
1UERCUSÈFRAINETTOÈINÈ'REECEÈ)NÈCOMBINATIONÈWITHÈTHEÈSTANDÈGENERATIONÈTOOLÈ34!.$'%.ÈTHEÈ
MODELÈISÈEXPLICITLYÈDESIGNEDÈFORÈFORESTÈSTANDÈSIMULATIONS
È
)NTRODUCTION
CEI;IÄCEZ[b_d]IjWdZh;Ifedi[>Wi[dWk[h'//*"(&&&Ä_iWZ_ijWdY[#
Z[f[dZ[djjh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehYedi_ij_d]e\Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj"^[_]^j_dYh[#
c[dj"ZodWc_YYhemdceZ[b"WdZcehjWb_joYecfed[dji$J^[i_ckbWjeh_iYWb_XhWj#
[Z\ehWbbcW`ehjh[[if[Y_[i_d7kijh_WWdZIm_jp[hbWdZ$J^[jh[[if[Y_[iYkhh[dj#
bo_dYehfehWj[ZWh[0DehmWoifhkY["\_h"bWhY^"IYejif_d["ijed[f_d["Æej^[hd[[Zb[
jh[[iÇ"YeccedX[[Y^"eWa"m_bbem"Æej^[hXheWZb[Wl[iÇWim[bbWiGk[hYki\hW_d_#
[jje_d=h[[Y[Ifohe]bek(&&*$J^[ZWjWiekhY[\ehYWb_XhWj_d]j^[ceZ[bYWc[
\hecf[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^WdZiWcfb_d]fbejiWYheiij^[7bf_d[7hY^WdZ_dYbkZ#
[ZnWdZoYeehZ_dWj[i"h[f[Wj[ZXh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h"jh[[^[_]^j"WdZ^[_]^jje
j^[XWi[e\j^[b_l[Yhemdc[Wikh[c[dji$J^[fh[Z_Yj_ed_dj[hlWb_i+o[Whi"[nY[fj
\ehm_bbemMe^b][ckj(&&*m^_Y^ki[iW'#o[Whfh[Z_Yj_ed_dj[hlWb$
È
-ODELÈ!PPROACH
) [#cW_b0^kX[hj$^Wi[dWk[h6Xeak$WY$Wj
*"+ :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i"?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"8EAKKd_l[h#
i_jo e\ DWjkhWb H[iekhY[i WdZ 7ffb_[Z B_\[ IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW" F[j[h @ehZWd IjhW[ .(" ''/&
L_[ddW"7kijh_W
È 4HEÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELÈ-/3%3È ,+
kh[ZXo»9?YWdh[ikbj_d[_j^[hWdWYY[b[hWj_edehWZ[Yb_d[_dZ_Wc[j[heh^[_]^j
]hemj^\ehjh[[ij^Wj[nf[h_[dY[Zi_c_bWhfWij]hem_d]YedZ_j_edi$JeWle_Zjh_l#
_Wbh[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[deXi[hl[ZWdZfej[dj_Wbjh[[]hemj^"j^[h[bWj_l[+#o[Wh
_dYh[c[dj_ifh[Z_Yj[ZWi\ebbemi0
_ZeXi_^eXi ( X
ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
##########"##########39HX''Ä[!E
9?'!X Õ$9?
)
_Zfej_Zfej
m^[h[_Zfej_iZ[j[hc_d[Z\hec[cf_h_YWbef[d]hemdjh[[Z_c[di_edi_d7ki#
jh_W>Wi[dWk[h'//-WdZ_^fej\ebbemiWik]][ij_edXoD[md^Wc'/,*Wim[bb
Wi Cedi[hkZ '/-+ WdZ ki[i j^[ ^[_]^j _dYh[c[dj Z[l[befc[dj e\ Zec_dWdj
jh[[i\ehW]_l[di_j[$J^[fej[dj_Wbf[h_eZ_YWb[$]$+o[Whi^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\eh
W]_l[djh[[_iZ[h_l[Z\hech[]_edWbi_j[_dZ[n\kdYj_ediWYYehZ_d]jej^[\ebbem#
_d] fheY[Zkh[07\j[h Z[j[hc_d_d] j^[ i_j[ _dZ[n j^[ Yehh[ifedZ_d] _dZ[n \kdY#
j_ed_ih[WhhWd][ZjeZ[h_l[j^[YWbYkbWjehoW][W]_l[djh[[mekbZ^Wl[^WZ_\_j
^WZ]hemdWiWZec_dWdjjh[[$7ZZ_d]j^[b[d]j^e\j^[fh[Z_Yj_ed_dj[hlWb[$]$
+o[WhiWdZYWbYkbWj_d]j^[\kjkh[Zec_dWdjjh[[^[_]^j"j^[Z_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[d
j^[jme^[_]^ji]_l[ij^[fej[dj_Wbf[h_eZ_YWb^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj$J^[i[jh[[^[_]^ji
Wh[d[[Z[ZWdZki[Z\ehZ[h_l_d]j^[Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h>Wi[dWk[h'//-$
J^[Yehh[ifedZ_d]Z_\\[h[dY[i]_l[j^[fej[dj_Wbf[h_eZ_YWbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj
\ehW]_l[djh[[$
JekfZWj[YhemdhWj_eWZodWc_YYhemdhWj_eceZ[b_iki[Zm^_Y^fh[Z_Yjij^[
Y^Wd][_dj^[^[_]^jjej^[b_l[YhemdXWi[»>B9WiW\kdYj_ede\jh[[^[_]^j^"
YhemdhWj_e9H"Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n9?"WdZj^[Z_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^j:8>
ki_d]j^[\ebbem_d]\ehc0
$>B93X&Õ^X'Õ[X(Õ9H !X)%9?!X*Õ:8>!E
&+
<_dWbbo"j^[fheXWX_b_joe\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[cehjWb_joF_ifh[Z_Yj[Zki_d]BE=?J0
'
F3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ!E
'![Z'!Z(Õ9?!Z)Õ9H!Z*Õ:8>
m^[h[9?_ij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nCedi[hkZ'/-+"9Hj^[YhemdhWj_e"WdZ
:8>j^[Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h$7bbceZ[bii[[ie\jmWh[Z[ce_dYbkZ[j^[h[#
cW_d_d][hhehYecfed[djjeWZZh[iij^[lWh_WdY[dej[nfbW_d[ZXoj^[ceZ[b$
;gkWj_edim_j^_dWjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bYWdX[Yedi_Z[h[ZWiWioij[ce\[gkW#
j_ediWdZcWodejX[_dZ[f[dZ[dj$<eh[nWcfb["j^[h[cW_d_d][hhehYecfed[dji
e\ed[[gkWj_edcWoW\\[Yjj^[YWb_XhWj_edh[ikbjie\j^[ej^[h[gkWj_edim_j^_d
j^[ioij[ci[[>Wi[dWk[h[jWb$'//.$JeWZZh[iij^[i_ckbjWd[ekidWjkh[e\jh[[
]hemj^ceZ[biWdZje[dikh[kdX_Wi[ZYe[\\_Y_[dj[ij_cWj[im_j^_dCEI;I"j^[
ioij[c e\ [gkWj_edi mWi YWb_XhWj[Z ki_d] \kbb _d\ehcWj_ed cWn_ckcb_a[b_^eeZ
<?CBc[j^eZi>Wi[dWk[h(&&&$
J^[ceZ[b_dYbkZ[i\ehc\WYjeh\kdYj_ediFebb[diY^jp'/-*1IY^_[b[h'//-
WdZWiiehjc[djjWXb[iIj[hXW'/.)1;Yacbbd[h'/.+1Ab[_d['/.,jeWii[iic[h#
Y^WdjWXb[j_cX[hlebkc[$?jWbieWbbemi\ehWi_cfb[Wii[iic[dje\ijehcWdZ%eh
,, #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
idemZWcW][IY^d'/.(ki_d]fheXWX_b_jo\kdYj_ediXWi[Zedj^[^[_]^jjeZ_#
Wc[j[hhWj_eWiWd_dZ_YWjeh\ehijWX_b_jo$
CEI;I_dYbkZ[iWd[nfb_Y_jh[][d[hWj_edjeeb\ehWbbjh[[iicWbb[hj^Wd'$*c
=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-1>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(1A_dZ[hcWdd[j
Wb$(&&(1A_dZ[hcWdd(&&*$J^[Wb]eh_j^cfh[Z_Yjij^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hW#
j_edm_j^_dW+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ"j^[if[Y_[ifhefehj_ed"WdZj^[h[][d[hWj_ed
Z[di_joe\Wbb`kl[d_b[i$EdY[j^[`kl[d_b[iWh[[ijWXb_i^[Zj^[_h]hemj^WdZceh#
jWb_joWh[Z[l[bef[Z\hecel[hijehoYecf[j_j_ed"j^[_djhW#WdZ_dj[hf[Y_\_YYec#
f[j_j_ed"WdZYecf[diWjehoWZ`kijc[djiZk[je[Z][[\\[Yj=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk#
[h'//-_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^j$?\j^[`kl[d_b[jh[[i^Wl[fWii[Zj^[j^h[i^ebZ^[_]^je\
'$*cj^[oX[bed]jej^[el[hijehoWdZYWdX[ceZ[b[Zm_j^j^[ijWdZWhZ]hemj^
\kdYj_ediWifh[l_ekiboZ[\_d[Z$
È
-ODELÈ!PPLICATIONÈANDÈ6ALIDITY
J^[ceZ[b^WiX[[dYWb_XhWj[Z\ehWbbcW`ehjh[[if[Y_[i_d7kijh_WWdZIm_j#
p[hbWdZki_d]ceh[j^Wd-."&&&+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZihWd]_d]\hec[l[d#W][Z
fkh[\eh[ijim_j^dejh[Wjc[djjekd[l[d#W][Zc_n[ZWdZj^_dd[Z\eh[ijijWdZi$
J^[ZWjWi[jki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_ed_dYbkZ[ZnWdZoYeehZ_dWj[i":8>"jh[[^[_]^j"
WdZ^[_]^jjej^[b_l[Yhemdc[Wikh[c[dji\eh[WY^jh[[$Dej[j^Wj_dekhh[]h[i#
i_edhkdim[ki[ZedboeXi[hl[Zjh[[ZWjW"_dehZ[hjeWle_ZWfej[dj_WbX_WiZk[
je W ^[kh_ij_Y jhWdi\ehcWj_ed e\ c_ii_d] jh[[ ZWjW" \eh Z[h_l_d] _dYh[c[dj ZWjW
>Wi[dWk[hWdZCedi[hkZ'//-X[YWki[][d[hWj[Z_dfkjZWjWZedej^Wl[hWd#
ZeclWh_Wj_ed$J^kij^[ob[WZjeWhj_\_Y_Wbbo^_]^Ye[\\_Y_[dje\Z[j[hc_dWj_edWdZ
[l[dceh[_cfehjWdjboj^_ifheY[Zkh[cWob[WZjeX_Wi[Zeh_dYedi_ij[djYe[\\_#
Y_[dj[ij_cWj[i>Wi[dWk[hWdZCedi[hkZ'//-$
CEI;I^WiX[[dki[Z_dWlWh_[joe\Wffb_YWj_ediikY^Wiki_d]jh[[]hemj^
ceZ[bi je Wii[ii j_cX[h lWbk[i h[ikbj_d] \hec Z_\\[h_d] jh[Wjc[dj iY[dWh_ei
>Wi[dWk[h [j Wb$ '//+" jh[Wjc[dj iY[dWh_ei _d X[[Y^ \eh[iji >Wi[dWk[h [j Wb
'//,"Wii[ii_d]j^[ikYY[iie\j^_dd_d]>Wbb[dXWhj[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h(&&)"Z[#
l[bef_d] jh[Wjc[dj ijhWj[]_[i \eh fhej[Yj_d] \eh[iji Wbed] h_l[hi Me^b][ckj
(&&*" h[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dj WdZ `kl[d_b[ jh[[ ]hemj^ iY[dWh_eiWYYehZ_d]
jeZ_\\[h[dji_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[djiA_dZ[hcWdd(&&*"[jY$
J^[ ceZ[b ^Wi Wbie X[[d [nj[di_l[bo lWb_ZWj[Z ki_d] _dZ[f[dZ[dj ZWjW i[ji
\hec Im_jp[hbWdZ WdZ 7kijh_W _dYbkZ_d] ceh[ j^Wd +("+&& ]hemj^ f[h_eZi$ <eh
[nWcfb["CEI;I^WiX[[dh[Y[djbolWb_ZWj[Z\ehIm_iiYedZ_j_edi>Wbb[dXWhj[h
[jWb$(&&+$
È
3OFTWAREÈANDÈ$ATAÈ)NPUTÈ2EQUIREMENTS
J^[Ykhh[djl[hi_ede\CEI;I\ehM_dZemi_iWlW_bWXb[_djmelWh_Wdji$J^[
\_hijlWh_Wdj_iWijWdZb[l[bi_ckbWj_edfhe]hWc"m^_Y^Wbbemi_dj[hWYj_l[_dZ_l_Z#
kWbjh[[jh[Wjc[djiZkh_d]Wi_ckbWj_edhkdIj[_dc[jp(&&*$J^_il[hi_ed_iki[#
È 4HEÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELÈ-/3%3È ,-
\kb\eh[ZkYWj_edWdZjhW_d_d]fkhfei[iWim[bbWi^ofej^[j_YWbj[ijie\i_bl_Ykbjkh#
WbcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[i$?j_dYbkZ[iWijWdZb[l[bl_ikWb_pWj_edjeebWdZ\[Wjkh[i
Wbb\kdYj_edij^Wjm[h[fh[l_ekiboZ[iYh_X[Z$
J^[i[YedZlWh_Wdj_iWXWjY^l[hi_ed"m^_Y^Wbbemihkdi\ehWbWh][dkcX[h
e\\eh[ijijWdZiA_dZ[hcWdd(&&*$J^[_Z[W^[h[_ij^Wjj^[i_ckbWj_ede\\eh[ij
ijWdZi\ebbemiWi[gk[dj_WbehZ[hWdZ[WY^ijWdZYWdX[Wii_]d[Zjefh[Z[\_d[Z
jh[Wjc[dji$J^_iXWjY^l[hi_edYWdWbieX[ki[Z\eh^_ijeh_YfbejZWjWWdZ^Wij^[
efj_edjeZ[WYj_lWj[[WY^[gkWj_ed$J^_i^WiX[[dfhel[djeX[l[ho_cfehjWdj\eh
ceZ[b j[ij_d] WdZ lWb_ZWj_ed ki_d] ZWjW \hec bed]#j[hc \_[bZ [nf[h_c[dji WdZ
f[hcWd[dj_dl[djeh_[i>Wbb[dXWhj[h[jWb$(&&+1<_]$*$($
8ej^l[hi_edih[gk_h[jh[[beYWj_edim^_Y^cWoYec[\hecc[Wikh[c[djieh
Xo ki_d] ijWdZ ][d[hWj_ed fheY[Zkh[i Fh[jpiY^ '//)1 :[][d^WhZj '//.1 Fec#
c[h[d_d](&&(1A_jj[dX[h][h(&&)$J^[oWbieh[gk_h[j^[:8>"jh[[^[_]^j"WdZ
^[_]^j je j^[ b_l[ Yhemd XWi[ \eh [WY^ jh[[$ <khj^[hceh[" W h[]_edWb i_j[ _dZ[n
\kdYj_edckijX[if[Y_\_[Z\eh[WY^jh[[if[Y_[i$7bb[gkWj_ediWim[bbWij^[Yeh#
h[ifedZ_d]Ye[\\_Y_[djiWh[WlW_bWXb[jej^[fkXb_YWdZYWdX[Y^Wd][ZehWZ`kij#
[ZXoj^[ki[hm_j^ekjh[Yecf_b_d]j^[fhe]hWc$
È
34!.$'%.È
7d_cfehjWdj\[Wjkh[m_j^_dj^[CEI;Ii_ckbWj_edioij[c_iIJ7D:=;D"W
ijWdZ][d[hWj_edfhe]hWcA_jj[dX[h][h(&&)Z[l[bef[ZWjj^[?dij_jkj[e\<eh#
[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"8EAKKd_l[hi_joe\DWjkhWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_#
[dY[i"L_[ddW$J^_ijeebmWiZ[l[bef[Z\ehYh[Wj_d]ijWdZi_jkWj_edij^WjWh[d[Y#
[iiWho\ehiY[dWh_ej[ij_d]WdZ%eh\eh][d[hWj_d]c_ii_d]YeehZ_dWj[i$J^[cej_#
lWj_ed\ehIJ7D:=;D_ij^Wj\ehceije\ekh\kjkh[Wffb_YWj_edi_jm_bbX[Z_\\_#
Ykbjeh[l[d_cfeii_Xb[jeeXjW_dnWdZoYeehZ_dWj[i\ehjh[[i"Wbj^ek]^j^[ifW#
j_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\j^[jh[[icWoX[l[ho_cfehjWdj$Dej[j^Wj_\de\_n[Zfei_j_ed
_iWii_]d[ZWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\Wi_ckbWj_edhkdWc[WdZ_ijWdY[Wced]jh[[iWj
j^[X[]_dd_d]e\[WY^fh[Z_Yj_ed_dj[hlWb_iWiikc[Zi[[j^[Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj
WffheWY^$ 9edY[fjkWbbo jh[[i cel[ Zkh_d] j^[ i_ckbWj_ed hkd X[YWki[ Wj [WY^
ijW][WdWl[hW][Yecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_edWjW]_l[dfbejmekbZX[Wiikc[Z"X[YWki[
j^[WYjkWbijWdZi_jkWj_ed_idejademd$IJ7D:=;D_dYbkZ[iW]hWf^_YWbki[h_d#
j[h\WY[jeZ[l[befj^[ijWdZ<_]$*$)WdZWbbemiWdo\ehce\\eh[ijijWdZj^Wjj^[
ki[hZ[i_h[ifebo]edceZ[b$
?j_dYbkZ[ij^h[[ijWdZ][d[hWj_edWb]eh_j^ci0'hWdZec"(hWij[h"WdZ)
ijhkYjkh[Zjh[[Z_ijh_Xkj_edfWjj[hdiWYYehZ_d]jeA_dZ[hcWdd(&&*$J^[jof_#
YWbmeha_d]ij[fim_j^_dIJ7D=;DWh[0'Z[\_d[W\eh[ijijWdZ1(][d[hWj[WdZ%
eh_cfehjWlW_bWXb[jh[[ZWjW1)Wii_]dj^[jh[[Z_ijh_Xkj_edWYYehZ_d]jeY[hjW_d
hkb[i Ybkij[h" W]]h[]Wj_ed" [jY$1 WdZ * [nfehj_d] j^[ ZWjWie j^Wj j^[o YWd X[
ki[Zm_j^_dCEI;I)$&$
,. #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
&IGÈÈ&LOWCHARTÈOFÈTHEÈTREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ-/3%3
2EFERENCES ,/
&IGÈÈ,EFTÈÈTREESÈGENERATEDÈWITHÈ34!.$'%.ÈFORÈAÈFORESTÈAREAÈOFÈABOUTÈÈHAÈ$IFFER
ENTÈCOLOURSÈAREÈTHEÈDIFFERENCESÈINÈTHEÈDOMINATINGÈTREESÈSPECIESÈ2IGHTÈ6ISUALIZATIONÈOFÈTHISÈSTANDÈ
SITUATIONÈUSINGÈTHEÈELECTRONICÈDISTRIBUTIONÈVERSIONÈOFÈTHEÈ3TANDÈ6ISUALIZATIONÈ0ROGRAMÈ-C'OUGHEYÈ
2EFERENCES
$EGENHARDTÈ!È È3IMULATIONÈVONÈ"AUMVERTEILUNGSMUSTERNÈINÈ-ISCHBESTËNDENÈ"EITRÈ&ORST
WIRTSCHÈ,ANDSCHÈ«KOLÈ n
%CKMàLLNERÈ /È È $ASÈ &UNKTIONSSCHEMAÈ DERÈ 3ORTENTAFELNÈ FàRÈ 4ANNEÈ ,ËRCHEÈ UNDÈ +IEFERÈ INÈ
«STERREICHÈ "ERICHTEÈ AUSÈ DERÈ !BTÈ (OLZMEKUNDEÈ UNDÈ )NVENTURFRAGENÈ 0UBLÈÈ )NSTITUTÈ FàRÈ
%RTRAGSLEHREÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
'OLSERÈ-È(ASENAUERÈ(È È0REDICTINGÈJUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈGROWTHÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈ
SPECIESÈSTANDSÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
(ALLENBARTERÈ $È (ASENAUERÈ (È È $URCHFORSTUNGENÈ INÈ &ICHTENBESTËNDENÈ EINEÈ !NALYSEÈ MITÈ
(ILFEÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLSÈ-/3%3È#ENTRALBLÈFÈGESÈ&ORSTWÈn
(ALLENBARTERÈ$È(ASENAUERÈ(È:INGGÈ!È È6ALIDIERUNGÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLSÈ-/3%3È
FàRÈ3CHWEIZERÈ7ËLDERÈ3CHWEIZÈ&ORSTZTGÈn
(ASENAUERÈ (È È %INÈ %INZELBAUMWACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈ FàRÈ UNGLEICHALTRIGEÈ &ICHTEN
+IEFERN
È
UNDÈ"UCHEN
&ICHTENMISCHBESTËNDEÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ3CHRIFTENREIHEÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ
7IENÈ «STERREICHISCHEÈ 'ESELLSCHAFTÈ FàRÈ 7ALDÚKOSYSTEMFORSCHUNGÈ UNDÈ EXPERIMENTELLEÈ
"AUMFORSCHUNGÈ"ANDÈÈÈPP
(ASENAUERÈ(È È$IMENSIONALÈRELATIONSHIPSÈOFÈOPEN
GROWNÈTREESÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ
n
(ASENAUERÈ(È È$IEÈSIMULTANENÈ%IGENSCHAFTENÈVONÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLENÈ0AREYÈ"ERLINÈ
ÈPP
(ASENAUERÈ (È +INDERMANNÈ 'È È -ETHODSÈ FORÈ ASSESSINGÈ REGENERATIONÈ ESTABLISHMENTÈ ANDÈ
HEIGHTÈGROWTHÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈSPECIESÈSTANDSÈ&ORESTRYÈn
(ASENAUERÈ(È-ONSERUDÈ2!È È"IASEDÈPREDICTIONSÈFORÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈMODELSÈDEVE
LOPEDÈFROMÈSMOOTHEDÈhDATAvÈ%COLÈ-ODELLINGÈn
-& #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
È
$ESCRIPTIONÈOFÈ0ROGN!USÈFORÈ7INDOWSÈ
J^ecWiB[Z[hcWdd,
!BSTRACTÈ5SERSÈOFÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈAREÈOFTENÈFACEDÈWITHÈSPECIFICÈPROBLEMSÈREQUIR
INGÈAÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈWITHÈSPECIFICÈCAPABILITIESÈ"ECAUSEÈOFÈTHEÈGREATÈVARIETYÈAMONGÈTHEÈ
EXISTINGÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORSÈ ITÈ ISÈ NOTÈ ALWAYSÈ ANÈ EASYÈ ENDEAVOURÈ TOÈ FINDÈ ANÈ APPROPRIATEÈ
ONEÈ )NÈ THISÈ SITUATIONÈ AÈ STANDARDISEDÈ DESCRIPTIONÈ ISÈ VERYÈ HELPFULÈ 4HEÈ DESCRIPTIONÈ OFÈ THEÈ
GROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ0ROGN!USÈFORÈ7INDOWSÈÈFOLLOWSÈTHEÈRECOMMENDATIONSÈOFÈTHEÈ'ERMANÈ
!SSOCIATIONÈOFÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ)NSTITUTIONSÈFORÈTHEÈSTANDARDISEDÈDOCUMENTATIONÈANDÈFURTHERÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ FORESTÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORSÈ )TÈ SHOULDÈ FACILITATEÈ THEÈ COMPARISONÈ OFÈ VARIOUSÈ
GROWTHÈ SIMULATORSÈ ANDÈ HELPÈ POTENTIALÈ USERSÈ TOÈ FINDÈ THEÈ APPROPRIATEÈ SIMULATORÈ FORÈ THEIRÈ
SPECIFICÈNEEDS
È
-ODELÈ!PPROACH
J^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh Fhe]d7ki \eh M_dZemi ($( _i XWi[Z kfed j^[ _cfb[#
c[djWj_ed e\ j^[ _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[b Fhe]d7ki Fhe]dei_i \eh 7ki#
jh_W m^_Y^ _i Yecfh_i[Z e\ W Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dj _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ XWiWb Wh[W
_dYh[c[dj ceZ[b Cedi[hkZ WdZ Ij[hXW '//,1 >Wi[dWk[h (&&&" Wd _dZ_l_ZkWb#
jh[[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[bIY^_[b[h'//-"Wd_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[cehjWb_joceZ#
[bCedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW'///"WdZWd_d]hemj^ceZ[b\ehjh[[i[nY[[Z_d]j^[+#
Yc Z_Wc[j[h Wj Xh[Wij ^[_]^j :8> j^h[i^ebZ B[Z[hcWdd (&&(W$ Jh[Wjc[dji"
_$[$j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]"Wh[XWi[Zedjh[[if[Y_[i":8>YbWii[i"WdZjh[[Wj#
jh_Xkj[i$J^[]hemj^ceZ[biWh[_dZ[f[dZ[dje\W][WdZfh[Z_Yjj^[_dYh[c[djZ_#
h[Yjbo"_$[$j^[oZedej\ebbemj^[fej[dj_Wb]hemj^YedY[fj$I_j[\WYjehiikY^Wi[b#
[lWj_ed"ibef[WdZWif[Yj"Z[fj^e\ie_bWdZ^kcki^eh_pedi"h[b_[\"ie_bce_ijkh[
YbWii"ie_bWdZl[][jWj_edjof[Wh[_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[]hemj^[gkWj_ediWiYedj_dkeki
WdZZkccolWh_WXb[i$<_]kh[*$*h[fh[i[djiW\bemY^Whjm^_Y^]hWf^_YWbboi^emi
j^[ YedY[fjkWb \hWc[meha e\ j^[ i_ckbWjeh WdZ _ji Yecfed[dji$ 9ed\_]khWj_edi
Z[f[dZedj^[ZWjWi[jWdZi^ekbZedboX[Y^Wd][Z_\j^[ZWjWi[jY^Wd][i$Ef#
j_ediYWdX[Y^Wd][ZX[\eh[%W\j[h[WY^i_ckbWj_edhkd$
, [#cW_b0j^ecWi$b[Z[hcWdd6X\m$]l$Wj:[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ij=hemj^WdZI_bl_Ykbjkh["<[Z[hWb
H[i[WhY^ WdZ JhW_d_d] 9[djh[ \eh <eh[iji" DWjkhWb >WpWhZi WdZ BWdZiYWf[ 8<M" I[Ya[d#
Zeh\\#=kZ[dj#M[]."'')'L_[ddW"7kijh_W
-( #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
&IGÈÈ&LOWÈCHARTÈOFÈTHEÈINDIVIDUAL TREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ0ROGN!USÈFORÈ7INDOWSÈ
È
2ANGEÈOFÈ!PPLICATION
J^[_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehFhe]d7ki\ehM_dZemi($(YWdX[ki[Z
je [lWbkWj[ i_bl_YkbjkhWb jh[Wjc[dj iY[dWh_ei" WdZ \eh cWa_d] \eh[YWiji e\ \eh[ij
ijWdZiWdZ\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[i"h[if[Yj_l[bo$?j_iki[Z\ehh[i[WhY^WdZjeZ[j[hc_d[
j^[WddkWbWbbemWXb[Ykj\eh\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[i$
È $ESCRIPTIONÈOFÈ0ROGN!USÈFORÈ7INDOWSÈ -)
È
6ALIDITY
7bbikX#ceZ[bie\j^[i_ckbWjehm[h[Z[l[bef[Z\hecZWjWe\j^[7kijh_WdDW#
j_edWb <eh[ij ?dl[djeho 7D<?$ J^ki" j^[ lWb_Z_jo e\ j^[ i_ckbWjeh h[\[hi je j^[
m^eb[\eh[ij[Zj[hh_jehoe\7kijh_W$J^[i_ckbWjehYWdX[Wffb_[Zje[l[d#WdZkd#
[l[d#W][Zc_n[ZijWdZie\Yecced7kijh_Wdjh[[if[Y_[i"WdZjeWbbjof[ie\Yec#
c[hY_WbWdZfh[#Yecc[hY_Wbj^_dd_d]iWdZ^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]_[iWih[fh[i[dj[Z_d
j^[ZWjWe\j^[7D<?$J^[_dfkjZWjWWh[b_c_j[Zjejh[[ibWh][hj^Wdeh[gkWbje
+Yc_d:8>'$)c1WcWn_ckc:8>mWidejZ[\_d[Z$
È
)NPUT
J^[_dfkjZWjWWh[_dZ[f[dZ[dje\Wh[Wi^Wf[WdZi_p["WdZckijX[fhel_Z#
[Z_dWd7I9??\_b[eh_dWdCI799;IIZWjWXWi[$C_ii_d]_d\ehcWj_edckijX[
][d[hWj[Zekji_Z[j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$J^[dkcX[he\jh[[h[YehZi_idejb_c_j#
[Z"Xkj_ihWj^[hZ[j[hc_d[ZXoj^[Yecfkj[hÉiWlW_bWXb[H7C$J^[h[gk_h[c[dji
\ehj^[_dfkjZWjWWh[WYYehZ_d]jej^[_dijhkYj_edie\j^[7D<?<ehijb_Y^[8kd#
Z[il[hikY^iWdijWbj'/.'$
È
0ROGRAMÈ#ONTROL
J^[_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehFhe]d7ki\ehM_dZemi($(fhel_Z[iWd
_dj[hWYj_l[fhe]hWcceZ[WdZWi[c_#XWjY^ceZ[$<khj^[hceh["_j_iZ[i_]d[Z\eh
_dj[hWYj_l[WdZWb]eh_j^c_YijWdZjh[Wjc[djh[\[hh_d]je:8>YbWii[i"jh[[if[Y_[i"
WdZjh[[Wjjh_Xkj[i$8ej^j^[XWiWbWh[W_dYh[c[djceZ[bWdZj^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj
ceZ[bYWdX[ceZ_\_[ZXoWckbj_fb_[h1Wd[nj[hdWbY^Wd][e\j^[WYjkWbceZ[bYe#
[\\_Y_[djiYWdX[Zed[_dWd7I9??\_b[$9^Wd]_d]j^[[gkWj_edi_idejfeii_Xb[$J^[
i_ckbWjehfhel_Z[ij^[effehjkd_jojeiWl[_dj[h_ch[ikbji1j^[Yedj_dkWj_edXWi[Z
edj^[i[_dj[h_ch[ikbji_ifeii_Xb[$
È
/UTPUT
J^[ekjfkje\j^[i_ckbWjehYecfh_i[ijh[[b_ijie\h[cW_d_d]"^Whl[ij[Z"WdZ
Z[WZjh[[i\eh[WY^+#o[Whf[h_eZ$7bbjh[[b_ijiYWdX[[nfehj[ZjeWdCI799;II
ZWjWXWi[$ <eh W ]_l[d ijhWjkc" j^[ i_ckbWjeh Wbie fhel_Z[i j^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\
i[l[hWbijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiikY^Wilebkc[f[h^[YjWh["ij[cdkcX[hf[h^[Y#
jWh["XWiWbWh[Wf[h^[YjWh["WddkWb_dYh[c[dj"^Whl[ij_d]WdZcehjWb_jo"gkWZhWj_Y
c[WdZ_Wc[j[h"c[Wd^[_]^jBeh[o"c[Wdjh[[lebkc[WdZc[Wd^[_]^j%Z_Wc[#
j[hhWj_e"WdZ"\_dWbbo"j^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[hWdZc[Wd
jh[[lebkc[e\j^[^Whl[ij[Zjh[[i$7bbj^[i[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiYWdX[eXjW_d[ZWjj^[
-* #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[b[l[behWdoej^[hikXijhWjkc[$]$W][YbWii"cWdW][c[djZ_i#
jh_Yj$IjhkYjkhWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWjijWdZeh\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bWh[b_c_j[Zje
Z_ijh_Xkj_edie\:8>i"if[Y_[i"WdZjh[[Wjjh_Xkj[i$;Yedec_YfWhWc[j[hi_dj[hci
e\Yecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[djim_j^h[]WhZjebe]i_p[WdZbe]gkWb_joYbWii[i"Yeijie\
^Whl[ij_d]\[bb_d]!ia_ZZ_d]"WdZj^[Yedjh_Xkj_edcWh]_d9C"h[l[dk[c_dki
YeijiWh[Wbiefhel_Z[ZXoj^[i_ckbWjeh$J^[l_ikWb_iWj_ed\[Wjkh[iWh[b_c_j[Zje
Y^Whjie\:8>"if[Y_[i"WdZjh[[Wjjh_Xkj[Z_ijh_Xkj_edi"WdZjeY^Whjifh[i[dj_d]
j^[Z[l[befc[dje\ijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$
È
'ROWTHÈ-ODEL
:WjW\eh[ij_cWj_d]ceZ[bYe[\\_Y_[djim[h[WlW_bWXb[\hecj^[7D<?Yecfh_i#
_d]ceh[j^Wd)&"&&&iWcfb[jh[[i$J^[be]#b_d[WhXWiWbWh[W_dYh[c[djceZ[bmWi
Z[l[bef[ZXoCedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW'//,WdZ>Wi[dWk[h(&&&0
bd87?+3\:8>"9H"87B"99<"[b[lWj_ed"ibef["Wif[Yj"j^_Yad[iie\<#^kcki
WdZ>#^kcki^eh_ped"ie_bZ[fj^"h[b_[\"ie_bce_ijkh["l[][jWj_edjof["ie_bjof["
]hemj^Z_ijh_Yj
m^[h[
87?+ XWiWbWh[W_dYh[c[dje\W+#o[Whf[h_eZ1
:8> Z_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^j1
> jejWb^[_]^j1
9H YhemdhWj_e1
87B XWiWbWh[W_dbWh][hjh[[iMoae\\'//&1
99< YhemdYecf[j_j_ed\WYjehAhW`_Y[a[jWb$'/,'1
<#^kcki i[c_Z[Yecfei[Z"\hW]c[dj[Zeh]Wd_YcWjj[hWdZ^kcki1
>#^kcki Wcehf^ekieh]Wd_YcWjj[hm_j^ekjc_d[hWbcWj[h_Wb$
J^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[bXoIY^_[b[h'//-_iWi_cfb[b_d[WhceZ[b0
_^''3\:8>">"_Z''
m^[h[_^''_ij^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[dje\Wd''#o[Whf[h_eZWdZ_Z''_ij^[:8>_dYh[#
c[dje\Wd''#o[Whf[h_eZ$
J^[ i_ckbWjeh YedjW_di W ijWj_Y Yhemd hWj_e ceZ[b >Wi[dWk[h WdZ Cedi[h#
kZ'//,0
9H3\:8>">"87B"99<"[b[lWj_ed"ibef["Wif[Yj
WdZWcehjWb_joceZ[bCedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW'///0
F+3\:8>"9H"87B
m^[h[F+_ij^[cehjWb_johWj[e\W+#o[Whf[h_eZ$
È $ESCRIPTIONÈOFÈ0ROGN!USÈFORÈ7INDOWSÈ -+
?dehZ[hje[ij_cWj[j^[dkcX[h"Z_c[di_edi"WdZif[Y_[ie\j^ei[jh[[ij^Wj
[nY[[Zj^[:8>j^h[i^ebZe\+YcZkh_d]W+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ"j^[i_ckbWjeh
YedjW_diWd_d]hemj^ceZ[bB[Z[hcWdd(&&(Wm^_Y^ed_jiemdfWhjYecfh_i#
[ij^[\ebbem_d]\_l[ikX#ceZ[bi0
F?d]3\GC:"87"99<"@'"@("C7I"[b[lWj_ed"ibef["l[][jWj_edjof["ie_bjof["
]hemj^Z_ijh_Yj
bdD3\GC:"87"99<"@("C7I"[b[lWj_ed"ibef["Wif[Yj"]hemj^Z_ijh_Yj
FIf[Y 3\If[Y"87"99<"C7I"[b[lWj_ed"ibef["Wif[Yj"ie_bce_ijkh["ie_bjof["
]hemj^Z_ijh_Yj
:8>3\D"87
>3\If[Y"GC:"87"99<"[b[lWj_ed"h[b_[\
m^[h[
F?d] fheXWX_b_joe\_d]hemj^edWfbej1
D dkcX[he\_d]hemj^jh[[iedWfbejhWZ_ki3($,c1
FIf[Y fheXWX_b_joe\Wif[Y_\_Yjh[[if[Y_[i1
:8>"> :8>WdZ^[_]^je\Wd_d]hemj^jh[[1
GC: gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[h1
87 XWiWbWh[Wf[h^[YjWh[
@'"@( ZkccolWh_WXb[i\ehWif[Y_\_YZ[l[befc[djijW][X[_d]fh[i[djeh
WXi[djedj^[fbej1
C7I cWdW][c[dj ioij[c Yeff_Y[ \eh[ij" ^_]^ \eh[ij" eh fhej[Yj_ed
\eh[ij1
If[Y ZkccolWh_WXb[\ehW]_l[djh[[if[Y_[iX[_d]fh[i[djehWXi[djed
j^[fbej$
;\\[Yji e\ j^_dd_d] eh ^Whl[ij_d] Wh[ h[fh[i[dj[Z Xo fWhWc[j[hi Z[iYh_X_d]
Z[di_joWdZYecf[j_j_ed99<WdZ87B$:[f[dZ_d]edj^[ki[hÉiY^e_Y["j^[XW#
iWbWh[W_dYh[c[djceZ[b"j^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[b"j^[cehjWb_joceZ[b"WdZ
j^[ _d]hemj^ ceZ[b YWd ef[hWj[ [_j^[h Z[j[hc_d_ij_YWbbo eh ijeY^Wij_YWbbo$ 7bb
ceZ[biWh[ijWj_ij_YWbbo\_jj[ZceZ[bi$<eh[ij_cWj_d]ceZ[bYe[\\_Y_[djii_ckbjW#
d[ekih[]h[ii_edj[Y^d_gk[iWdZehZ_dWhob[WijigkWh[c[j^eZim[h[ki[Z$9e[\#
\_Y_[djie\fheXWX_b_ij_YceZ[bim[h[[ij_cWj[ZXobe]_ij_Yh[]h[ii_edki_d]cWn#
_ckcb_a[b_^eeZc[j^eZi$8ej^h[]h[ii_edj[Y^d_gk[iWdZcWn_ckcb_a[b_^eeZ
c[j^eZim[h[fhel_Z[ZXoI7II7I?dij_jkj['/./$
È
!DDITIONALÈ!LGORITHMS
J_cX[h ]hWZ_d] _i XWi[Z ed j^[ Wiiehjc[dj jWXb[i WYYehZ_d] je Ij[hXW [j
Wb$ '/., WdZ ;Yacbbd[h WdZ Ij[hXW (&&($ <khj^[hceh[" j^[ _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[
]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh Fhe]d7ki \eh M_dZemi ($( YedjW_di d[m ceZ[bi Leif[hd_a
(&&*j^WjWbbemj_cX[h]hWZ_d]_dj[hcie\be]gkWb_joYbWii[i7"8"WdZ9WYYehZ#
_d]jej^[7kijh_WddWj_edWbWiiehjc[dj]k_Z[b_d[i7ijWdZi\eh]eeZgkWb_jo"8
c[Z_kcgkWb_jo"WdZ9XWZgkWb_jo$Ej^[hWb]eh_j^cih[\[hje_dj[hWYj_l[ehWb]e#
h_j^c_YijWdZjh[Wjc[dji$J^[_dj[hWYj_l[ijWdZjh[Wjc[djceZ[_iXWi[Zedif[#
-, #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
Y_[i"jh[[Wjjh_Xkj[i"WdZ:8>YbWii[i"j^[m_Zj^WdZj^[dkcX[hcWn_ckc(&
e\m^_Y^YWdX[Z[j[hc_d[ZXoj^[ki[h$J^[Wb]eh_j^c_YijWdZjh[Wjc[djceZ[
Yecfh_i[ij^[\ebbem_d]Wb]eh_j^ciIZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)0
v h[celWbf[hY[djW][i_dZ[\_d[Z:8>YbWii[i1
v jWh][j:8>1
v [gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[1
v BE=?JceZ[bi\ehjh[[h[celWb1
v jh[[dkcX[hi$
?dWZZ_j_edjej^[i[j^_dd_d]%^Whl[ij_d]Wb]eh_j^ciWidemXh[WaW][ceZ[b_i
_cfb[c[dj[Z_dehZ[hjei_ckbWj[iWblW][Ykjj_d]$Fhe]d7kiYWdfheY[iiXej^_d#
l[djehoZWjWWdZZWjW\hec[dj_h[ijWdZi$>em[l[h"ZWjW\hecicWbbfbejib[WZje
WZ_\\[h_d]h[iebkj_ede\j^[Yecf[j_j_edlWh_WXb[XWiWb#Wh[W#_d#bWh][hjh[[i87B
Zkh_d]Wi_ckbWj_edhkd$J^[h[\eh["Wif[Y_WbWb]eh_j^cB[Z[hcWddWdZ;Yacbb#
d[h(&&*_i_cfb[c[dj[ZjeWle_ZX_Wi[Zfh[Z_Yj_edie\ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj$
È
-ODELÈ0RECISION
If[Y_\_YWj_edih[]WhZ_d]fh[Y_i_ed"X_WiWdZWYYkhWYoYWdX[\ekdZ_dj^[\eb#
bem_d]h[\[h[dY[i0Cedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW'//,"'///"Ij[hXWWdZCedi[hkZ'//,"
'//-"IY^_[b[h'//-"Ij[hXW'///">Wi[dWk[h(&&&"Ij[hXW[jWb$(&&'"WdZ
B[Z[hcWdd(&&(W$
È
3OFTWAREÈANDÈ(ARDWARE
J^[ Ykhh[dj l[hi_ed e\ j^[ _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh Fhe]d7ki \eh
M_dZemi($(mWih[b[Wi[Z_d@WdkWho(&&*$?jmWifhe]hWcc[Z_dL_ikWb8Wi_Y,$&$
7d?8C#YecfWj_Xb[F9m_j^CIM_dZemi/+%/.#NF_ih[gk_h[Z_dehZ[hjehkd
j^[i_ckbWjeh1W)&&C>p9FKWdZ,*C8H7CWh[h[Yecc[dZ[Z$
2EFERENCES
,EDERMANNÈ4ÈA È%INÈ%INWUCHSMODELLÈAUSÈDENÈ$ATENÈDERÈ«STERREICHISCHENÈ7ALDINVENTURÈ
nÈ#ENTRALBLÈ'ESÈ&ORSTWESENÈn
,EDERMANNÈ4ÈB È5SINGÈLOGISTICÈREGRESSIONÈTOÈMODELÈTREEÈSELECTIONÈPREFERENCESÈFORÈHARVES
TINGÈINÈFORESTSÈINÈCONVERSIONÈ)NÈVONÈ'ADOWÈ+È.AGELÈ*È3ABOROWSKIÈ*ÈEDS È-ANAGINGÈFORESTÈ
ECOSYSTEMSÈ CONTINUOUSÈ COVERÈ FORESTRYÈ nÈ ASSESSMENTÈ ANALYSISÈ SCENARIOSÈ VOLÈÈ +LUWERÈ
$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
,EDERMANNÈ4È È)MPLEMENTIERUNGÈEINESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLSÈZURÈ.ACHHALTSKONTROLLEÈ
$ISSERTATIONÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
,EDERMANNÈ4È%CKMàLLNERÈ/È È!ÈMETHODÈTOÈATTAINÈUNIFORMÈRESOLUTIONÈOFÈTHEÈCOMPETITIONÈ
VARIABLEÈ"ASAL
!REA
IN
,ARGERÈ4REESÈ"!, ÈDURINGÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈPROJECTIONSÈOFÈSMALLÈPLOTSÈ
%COLÈ-ODELLINGÈn
-ONSERUDÈ2!È3TERBAÈ(È È!ÈBASALÈAREAÈINCREMENTÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈGROWINGÈINÈ
EVEN
ÈANDÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTÈSTANDSÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
-ONSERUDÈ2!È3TERBAÈ(È È-ODELINGÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈMORTALITYÈFORÈ!USTRIANÈFORESTÈSPECIESÈ
&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
-ONSERUDÈ2!È3TERBAÈ(È(ASENAUERÈ(È È4HEÈSINGLE
TREEÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ02/'.
!53È)NÈ4ECKÈ2È-OERÈ-È!DAMSÈ*ÈEDS È0ROCÈ&ORESTÈ6EGETATIONÈ3IMULATORÈ#ONFÈnÈ&EBÈ&ORTÈ
#OLLINSÈ#OLORADOÈ'ENÈ4ECHÈ2EPÈ).4
'42
È53$!È&ORESTÈ3ERVICESÈ)NTERNATIONALÈ2ESEARCHÈ
3TATIONÈ/GDENÈ5TAHÈPPÈn
3!3È )NSTITUTEÈ È 3!334!4È 5SERgSÈ 'UIDEÈ 6ERSIONÈ È È THÈ EDNÈ 6OLÈÈ 3!3È )NSTITUTEÈ #ARYÈ
.ORTHÈ#AROLINAÈÈPP
3CHIELERÈ+È È-ETHODEÈDERÈ:UWACHSBERECHNUNGÈDERÈ«STERREICHISCHENÈ7ALDINVENTURÈ$IS
SERTATIONÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
3ÚDERBERGHÈ)È,EDERMANNÈ4È È!LGORITHMSÈFORÈSIMULATINGÈTHINNINGÈANDÈHARVESTINGÈINÈFIVEÈ
%UROPEANÈINDIVIDUAL
TREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈAÈREVIEWÈ#OMPUTÈ%LECTRONÈ!GRICÈn
3TERBAÈ(È È02/'.!53ÈnÈEINÈABSTANDSUNABHËNGIGERÈ7ACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈFàRÈUNGLEICHALT
RIGEÈ-ISCHBESTËNDEÈ)NÈ+ENKÈ'ÈED È$EUTSCHERÈ6ERBANDÈ&ORSTLICHERÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈ
È3EKTIONÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈ"EITRËGEÈZURÈ*AHRESTAGUNGÈÈINÈ*OACHIMSTALÈ$6&&!È&REIBURGÈ
PPÈn
3TERBAÈ (È È 02/'.!53È nÈ EINÈ 6ALIDIERUNGSBEISPIELÈ )NÈ +ENKÈ 'È ED È $EUTSCHERÈ 6ERBANDÈ
&ORSTLICHERÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈ
È3EKTIONÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈ"EITRËGEÈZURÈ*AHRESTAGUNGÈÈINÈ
6OLPRIEHAUSENÈ$6&&!È&REIBURGÈPPÈn
3TERBAÈ (È È 5NEVEN
AGEDÈ FORESTÈ MANAGEMENTÈ DOESÈ ITÈ COMBINEÈ SUSTAINABILITYÈ ANDÈ PRO
DUCTIVITYÈ)NÈ*ANDLÈ2È$EVALLÈ-È+HORCHIDIÈ-È3CHIMOFÈ%È7OLFRUMÈ'È+RISHNAPILLAYÈ"ÈEDS È
&ORESTSÈANDÈSOCIETYÈTHEÈROLEÈOFÈRESEARCHÈ0ROCÈSTÈ)5&2/È7ORLDÈ#ONGRÈ!BSTRACTSÈOFÈGROUPÈ
DISCUSSIONSÈVOLÈÈ)5&2/È6IENNAÈPÈ
3TERBAÈ(È-ONSERUDÈ2!È È6ALIDATIONÈOFÈTHEÈSINGLEÈTREEÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ02/'.!53È
WITHÈPERMANENTÈPLOTÈDATAÈ)NÈ+ÚHLÈ-È'ERTNERÈ':ÈEDS È#ARINGÈFORÈTHEÈFORESTÈRESEARCHÈINÈ
AÈ CHANGINGÈ WORLDÈ 3TATISTICSÈ MATHEMATICSÈ ANDÈ COMPUTERSÈ 0ROCÈ THÈ )5&2/È 7ORLDÈ #ONFÈ
nÈ!UGÈÈ4AMPEREÈ&INLANDÈ3È
È3WISSÈ&EDERALÈ)NSTITUTEÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ3NOWÈANDÈ
,ANDSCAPEÈ2ESEARCHÈ73,&.0 È"IRMENSDORFÈPPÈn
3TERBAÈ(È-ONSERUDÈ2!È È!PPLICABILITYÈOFÈTHEÈFORESTÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ02/'.!53ÈFORÈ
THEÈ!USTRIANÈPARTÈOFÈTHEÈ"OHEMIANÈ-ASSIFÈ%COLÈ-ODELLINGÈn
3TERBAÈ(È,EDERMANNÈ4È È'ROWTHÈMODELSÈTOÈCONTROLÈSUSTAINABILITYÈOFÈFORESTSÈINÈTRANSITIONÈ
)NÈ"ASKARANÈ+È3OEPADMOÈ%È!RSHADÈ.,È7ONGÈ((!È!PPANAHÈ3È3UHAMIÈ7#È-ANOKRANAÈ.ÈÈ
È
-. #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
È
4HEÈ)NDIVIDUAL
4REE
"ASEDÈ3TANDÈ3IMULATORÈ3),6!
>$Fh[jpiY^-"F$8_X[h."@$àkhia/"H$IeZja['&
È
)NTRODUCTION
I_dY['/./"j^[<eh[ij=hemj^I_ckbWjehI?BL7^WiX[[dZ[l[bef[ZWjj^[9^W_h
e\<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY["Ckd_Y^"=[hcWdo"WiWdWffb_YWXb[jeeb\ehcWdW][c[dj"
h[i[WhY^WdZ[ZkYWj_edWbfkhfei[i[$]$Fh[jpiY^'//("(&&'$?dj^_iZ_ijWdY[#Z[#
f[dZ[dj_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[WffheWY^WijWdZ_ih[]WhZ[ZWiWj^h[[#Z_c[di_edWbioi#
j[c e\ i_d]b[ jh[[i _d\bk[dY_d] [WY^ ej^[h ckjkWbbo$ J^_i WffheWY^ f[hc_ji j^[
i_ckbWj_ede\j^[Z[l[befc[dj[l[de\Yecfb[nijhkYjkh[Z[l[d#WdZkd[l[d#W][Z
fkh[WdZc_n[ZijWdZi"m^_Y^_idejfeii_Xb[XoYedl[dj_edWbc[Wdi$7iZ[\_d[ZXo
_jifWhWc[j[h_iWj_edZWjW"I?BL7_ih[b_WXb[\ehceij=[hcWdi_j[YedZ_j_edi"fWh#
- [#cW_b0^$fh[jpiY^6bhp$jkc$Z[
."/"'& 9^W_h \eh <eh[ij O_[bZ IY_[dY[" J[Y^d_YWb Kd_l[hi_jo Ckd_Y^" 7c >eY^Wd][h ')" .+)+*
<h[_i_d]"=[hcWdo
È 4HEÈ)NDIVIDUAL
4REE
"ASEDÈ3TANDÈ3IMULATORÈ3),6! -/
j_YkbWhbo j^ei[ \ekdZ _d iekj^[hd =[hcWdo$ J^[ Ykhh[dj l[hi_ed Yel[hi j^[ jh[[
if[Y_[iDehmWoifhkY["i_bl[h\_h"IYejif_d["YeccedX[[Y^WdZi[ii_b[eWa$
7d_dl[djeho_dj[h\WY[i[hl[i\eh_dfkjj_d]_d\ehcWj_ed\hecfhWYj_YWb\eh[ij
cWdW][c[dj$<khj^[hceZ[b\[Wjkh[i[n_ijjeikXij_jkj[_dYecfb[j[_dfkj_d\eh#
cWj_ed[$]$Z[h_l_d][dl_hedc[djWblWh_WXb[i\hechek]^i_j[_d\ehcWj_ed"][d#
[hWj_d]jh[[ZWjW\hecjh_Wbfbej_d\ehcWj_ed$7ZZ_j_edWbekjfkjhekj_d[i\ehj_c#
X[h]hWZ_d]WdZYWbYkbWj_d]^Whl[ij_d]YeijiWdZiWb[ih[jkhdiWh[WlW_bWXb[$<eh
j^_i"I?BL7^WiX[[dWffb_[Z\ehlWh_eki\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfkhfei[iXoi[l[h#
Wb=[hcWd\eh[iji[hl_Y[iWdZfh_lWj[\eh[ijemd[hiWim[bbWi_dh[i[WhY^WdZWi
Wd_dijhkc[dj\eh[ZkYWj_d]\eh[ijijkZ[djiWdZ\eh[ijcWdW][hi$7Z[jW_b[ZZ[#
iYh_fj_ede\I?BL7_dYbkZ_d]jh[[h[fh[i[djWj_ed"_dfkjWdZekjfkjhekj_d[i"Yeh[
ceZkb[[gkWj_edie\]hemj^WdZcehjWb_jo"Wim[bbWih[\[hh_d]fWhWc[j[hiYWdX[
\ekdZ_dFh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($
È
$ATABASE
J^[cW_dZWjWiekhY[\ehfWhWc[j[h_iWj_ede\ceZ[b\kdYj_edi_ij^[8WlWh#
_Wdjh_Wbfbejd[jmeha"cW_djW_d[ZXoj^[9^W_he\<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY[$J^[ZW#
jW m[h[ ]Wj^[h[Z ed (.. fbeji ed +-& eYYWi_edi" m^_Y^ c[Wdi j^Wj cWdo fbeji
m[h[eXi[hl[Zh[f[Wj[Zbom_j^_dj^[f[h_eZX[jm[[d'/+(WdZ'//.$El[hWbbfbeji
WdZ_dl[djeh_[i"'++"&&&jh[[eXi[hlWj_edim[h[WlW_bWXb[\ehceZ[bZ[l[befc[dj$
7hekdZ)&e\j^[i[ZWjWfe_djim[h[ki[Z\ehfWhWc[j[h_iWj_ed$7bbj^[i[eXi[h#
lWj_ediYel[h[Zjh[[i\hecWXheWZhWd][e\Z_Wc[j[hiWjXh[Wij^[_]^jWdZijWdZ
ijhkYjkh[i"h[if[Yj_l[boY\$Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($7ZZ_j_edWbbo"ZWjW\hecj^[<eh#
[ijhoH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedoWdZj^[Im_iiH[i[WhY^IjWj_ed\eh<eh[ij"
IdemWdZBWdZiYWf[_dIm_jp[hbWdZm[h[ki[Z\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[i_j[#h[#
bWj[Zfej[dj_Wb^[_]^j]hemj^ceZ[bi[[AW^d'//*$
È
4REEÈ2EPRESENTATIONÈANDÈ-ODELÈ)NITIALISATION
?dI?BL7"Wjh[[_iZ[iYh_X[ZXoj^[\ebbem_d]i[je\a[olWh_WXb[i0jh[[if[Y_[i"Z_#
Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jZX^"jejWb^[_]^j^"^[_]^je\YhemdXWi[^YX"YhemdZ_#
Wc[j[hYZWdZjh[[YeehZ_dWj[in"o$;l[hojh[[_iWiikc[ZjeijWdZijhW_]^jkf#
h_]^j$If[Y_[i#if[Y_\_YYhemdceZ[biWh[ki[Zjeh[fh[i[djj^h[[#Z_c[di_edWbYhemd
i^Wf[iFh[jpiY^'//($J^[i[ceZ[biWiikc[j^[YhemdjeX[hejWj_ed#iocc[jh_#
YWb_dj^[^eh_pedjWbZ_h[Yj_edWdZjeX[Z_l_Z[Zl[hj_YWbbo_dWdkff[hWdZWbem[h
i[Yj_ed$9hemdi^Wf[_iif[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y"Xkjj^[Yhemd_iWbmWoiWiikc[ZjeX[e\
cWn_ckcm_Zj^YZWjj^[^[_]^jm^[h[Xej^i[Yj_edic[[j[WY^ej^[h$
7i_ckbWj_edhkd_i_d_j_Wb_i[Zm_j^_d\ehcWj_edWXekjcWdW][c[dj"i_j[Yed#
Z_j_ediWdZjh[[a[olWh_WXb[i$?dYecfb[j[ZWjWYWdX[Yecfb[j[Zki_d]j^[ijWdZ
ijhkYjkh[][d[hWjehceZkb[e\I?BL7Fh[jpiY^'//-$H[Y[djbo"j^[ijhkYjkh[][d#
[hWjehmWi[d^WdY[Z_dehZ[hjeZ[h_l[h[fh[i[djWj_l[jh[[ZWjWWbie\hecijhWj_#
\_[ZiWcfb[fbejc[Wikh[c[djiàkhia'///$
.& #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
J^_dd_d]jof["]hWZ[WdZ\h[gk[dYoZ[\_d[cWdW][c[djYedZ_j_edi$I?BL7Wb#
bemi"\eh[nWcfb["j^[h[fh[i[djWj_ede\Z_\\[h[djjof[ie\i[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]"\_dWb
Yhef#jh[[YedY[fji"jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]"j^_dd_d]\hecX[bemehWXel["de
j^_dd_d]WdZYecX_dWj_edie\j^[i[YedY[fji$
I?BL7 fheY[ii[i _d\ehcWj_ed \hec W i[j e\ [dl_hedc[djWb YedZ_j_edi ikY^
Wi c[Wd j[cf[hWjkh[ WdZ fh[Y_f_jWj_ed ikc m_j^_d j^[ ]hem_d] i[Wied eh Wj#
ceif^[h_Y 9E( YedY[djhWj_ed" ]_l[d Wi bed]#j[hc c[Wd lWbk[i Y\$ Fh[jpiY^ [j
Wb$(&&($I_dY[j^[m^eb[i[je\lWh_WXb[i_ii[bZecWlW_bWXb[\ehWi_d]b[fbej"_j
_ifeii_Xb[je_d_j_Wb_i[ceij[dl_hedc[djWbYedZ_j_edi\hecj^[[Yeh[]_edYeZ[
dkcX[h Wi Z[\_d[Z Xo j^[ =[hcWd i_j[ YbWii_\_YWj_ed" ^[_]^j WXel[ i[W b[l[b"
ibef[WdZ[nfei_j_ed$
If[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Ykd_ceZWbZei[#h[ifedi[\kdYj_ediWh[ki[ZjeW]]h[]Wj[[d#
l_hedc[djWb_d\ehcWj_ed_dje[Yebe]_YWbboi_]d_\_YWdji_j[lWh_WXb[iAW^d'//*"
Z[j[hc_d_d]j^[fhef[hj_[ie\Wfej[dj_Wb^[_]^j]hemj^Ykhl[\ehckbWj[ZWYYehZ#
_d]jej^[9^WfcWd#H_Y^WhZi[gkWj_ed0
f
^fej37Õ'Ä[ÄaÕj
m^[h[^fej_ifej[dj_Wbjh[[^[_]^jWjW][jWdZ7"aWdZfWh[if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y
fWhWc[j[hi"m^_Y^Wh[Z[h_l[Z\hecWl[Yjehe\i_j[lWh_WXb[i$
È
#OREÈ-ODELÈ$ESCRIPTION
È
'ENERALÈ#ONSIDERATIONS
J^[ icWbb[ij i_ckbWj_ed j_c[ ij[f m_j^ I?BL7 _i W \eh[ij ]hemj^ f[h_eZ e\
+o[Whi$J^_if[h_eZYehh[ifedZim_j^j^[j_c[_dj[hlWbifhel_Z[ZXoo_[bZjWXb[i$
?j_iWbiej^[ijWdZWhZj_c[_dj[hlWbX[jm[[djmec[Wikh[c[djiedj^[jh_Wbfbeji
ki[Z\ehceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed$J^[\_hijij[fe\[WY^YoYb[_ij^[j^h[[#Z_c[di_edWb
Yecf[j_j_edWdWboi_iZ[j[hc_d_d]j^[Z[]h[[e\Yecf[j_j_ed\eh[WY^jh[[WYYehZ#
_d]jeWdkcX[he\_dZ_Y[iZ[iYh_X[ZX[bem$J^[d"fh[b_c_dWhojh[[]hemj^_iZ[#
j[hc_d[ZjeX[ki[Z_dj^[cehjWb_joceZkb[jeZ[Y_Z[m^[j^[hj^[_dZ_l_ZkWb_i
Yedi_Z[h[ZWb_l[\ehj^[Ykhh[dji_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ$7\j[hj^[h[celWbe\Z[WZeh
^Whl[ij[Zjh[[i"Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[iWdZZ_c[di_edWbY^Wd][ie\[WY^jh[[Wh[h[#
YWbYkbWj[Z$
È
)NTER
4REEÈ#OMPETITION
?dI?BL7"_dj[h#jh[[Yecf[j_j_ede\[WY^jh[[_iYWbYkbWj[ZXoj^[Yecf[j_j_ed
_dZ[n AAB$ J^_i _dZ[n _i W ][ec[jh_YWb Yecf[j_j_ed c[Wikh[ YWbYkbWj[Z \eh j^[
j^h[[#Z_c[di_edWbifWY[ikhhekdZ_d]WfWhj_YkbWhjh[[$9ecf[j_jehiWh[Z[\_d[Z
È 4HEÈ)NDIVIDUAL
4REE
"ASEDÈ3TANDÈ3IMULATORÈ3),6! .'
Xoj^[l_hjkWb#h[l[hi[#Yed[c[j^eZFh[jpiY^'//(1Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($8[i_Z[i
j^_i _dZ[n I?BL7 ki[i jme WZZ_j_edWb c[Wikh[i \eh gkWdj_\o_d] Yecf[j_j_ed Wi#
f[YjiW\\[Yj[ZXojof[WdZifWj_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\j^[Yecf[j_jehjh[[i$
È
-ORTALITY
7\j[h Z[j[hc_d_d] j^[ Z[]h[[ e\ Yecf[j_j_ed" dWjkhWb cehjWb_jo m_j^_d j^[
d[nj i_ckbWj_ed YoYb[ _i [ij_cWj[Z$ J^[ cehjWb_jo ceZkb[ YWbYkbWj[i j^[ ikhl_l#
WbfheXWX_b_jo\hecj^[Z_c[di_ede\Wjh[[WdZ_ji[nf[Yj[ZXWiWbWh[W_dYh[Wi[
Xoc[Wdie\WBE=?J\kdYj_edfWhWc[j[h_i[ZXo[cf_h_YWbZWjWY\$:khia'//-1
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($
È
4HINNING
J^_dd_d]m_bbX[f[h\ehc[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[i[jj_d]iZ[\_d[ZXoj^[ki[hWj
j^[ijWhje\j^[i_ckbWj_ed$J^[WlW_bWXb[j^_dd_d]jof[ih[fh[i[djW]h[WjdkcX[h
e\YedY[fjih[b[lWdjjefhWYj_Y[$Iec[e\j^[cWh[XWi[ZedW\kppobe]_YYedjheb#
b[hAW^d'//+"m^[h[Wiej^[hiki[ej^[hWb]eh_j^ci"[$]$j^[7#lWbk[YedY[fjZ[#
\_d_d]j^[Z[]h[[e\i[b[Yj_edjh[[h[celWb$
È
(EIGHTÈANDÈ$IAMETERÈ'ROWTH
I_j[#Z[f[dZ[dj^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wbp^fej_iYWbYkbWj[Z\eh[WY^jh[[ki_d]
;g$*$'Y\$Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($p^fej_ih[ZkY[Zjej^[[nf[Yj[Z^[_]^j]hemj^
p^WYYehZ_d]jej^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ÉiYedZ_j_ediZ[\_d[ZXo_jiYecf[j_j_ed_dZ_#
Y[iWdZYhemdZ_c[di_edi$Jh[[Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj_iWbieZ[h_l[Z\hecfej[dj_Wb
]hemj^i_c_bWhje^[_]^j]hemj^$J^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dji[hl[i\ehZ[#
j[hc_d_d]j^[fej[dj_WbXWiWbWh[W_dYh[c[djWdZj^[[nf[Yj[ZXWiWbWh[W]hemj^
Y\$Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($
È
#ROWNÈ$EVELOPMENT
D[mYhemdZ_c[di_ediWh[YWbYkbWj[ZXoZ_h[Yjbo[ij_cWj_d]j^[^[_]^je\j^[
YhemdXWi[WdZj^[YhemdZ_Wc[j[h\hecjh[[^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h$:WjWki[Z\eh
\_jj_d] _dZ_YWj[ j^Wj j^[ _dj[]hWj[Z if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y fWhWc[j[hi Wbbem \eh W ]eeZ
h[fh[i[djWj_ede\kd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z\eh[ijiY\$Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($
.( #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
È
/UTPUT
<hecj^[i_ckbWj[Zjh[[Z_c[di_edilWh_ekiWif[Yjie\ijWdZZ[l[befc[djYWd
X[l_ikWb_i[Zm_j^_dI?BL7$<eh_bbkijhWj_ede\j^[j^h[[#Z_c[di_edWbijWdZZ[l[b#
efc[dj"f[hif[Yj_l[ijWdZl_[miWdZYhemdY^WhjiWh[fhel_Z[Z"m^_Y^Wh[ikf#
fb[c[dj[Z Xo W h[Wb_ij_Y ijWdZ l_ikWb_iWj_ed ioij[c Fh[jpiY^ WdZ I[_\[hj '///"
Wbbem_d] l_hjkWb mWbaj^hek]^i WdZ _dj[hWYj_l[ j^_dd_d]$ ?d WZZ_j_ed" W bWh][ i[j
e\dkc[h_YWb_d\ehcWj_ed_iWlW_bWXb[m^_Y^YWdX[l_[m[ZWiZ_W]hWciehWij[nj
\_b[ij^WjWh[i_c_bWhjeijWdZWhZo_[bZjWXb[i$
J^h[[a_dZie\ekjfkjYWdX[Z_ij_d]k_i^[Z0\_hij"YbWii_YWb]hemj^WdZo_[bZ
ZWjW Wh[ fhel_Z[Z ed ijWdZ WdZ jh[[ b[l[b" [$]$ ij[c dkcX[h" XWiWb Wh[W" j_cX[h
lebkc[" Ykhh[dj WdZ c[Wd WddkWb _dYh[c[dj WdZ c[Wd ^[_]^j1 i[YedZ" ced[#
jWho lWbk[i YWd X[ eXjW_d[Z \hec j^[ YWbYkbWj_ed e\ ijWdZ Wiiehjc[dj Z_ijh_Xk#
j_edi m_j^ j^[ j_cX[h ]hWZ_d] hekj_d[ 8:7J AkXb_d WdZ IY^WhdW]b '/..$ J^_i
_dYbkZ[iWbieZ[jW_b[Z_d\ehcWj_edWXekjj^[ced[jWhoZ[l[befc[dje\j^[ijWdZ"
m^_Y^_iXWi[Zedj_cX[hfh_Y[iWdZ^Whl[ij_d]Yeijiif[Y_\_[ZXoj^[ki[h$?\Z_\#
\[h[djfh_Y[iWdZYeijii^ekbZX[_dl[ij_]Wj[Z"lWh_eki[Yedec_YiY[dWh_eiYWdX[
[lWbkWj[Zm_j^j^[iWc[i_ckbWj_edhkd$J^[j^_hZ]hekfe\ekjfkj_d\ehcWj_ed
Z[iYh_X[i [Yebe]_YWbbo _cfehjWdj ijhkYjkhWb lWbk[i$ I[l[hWb _dZ_Y[i Wh[ YWbYkbWj#
[Z\hecjh[[Z_c[di_ediWdZijWdZijhkYjkh[Y\$Fh[jpiY^'//-18_X[h[jWb$'//."
m^_Y^YWdX[ki[Zje`kZ][ded#ced[jWholWbk[iikY^Wi^WX_jWjik_jWX_b_joehie#
Y_Wb\eh[ij\kdYj_edi$
È
-ODELÈ%VALUATION
J^[XWi_Ygk[ij_ed_im^[j^[hj^[i_ckbWjeh_iik_jWXb[jeX[_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[
_d\ehcWj_ed\beme\\eh[ijfhWYj_Y["_dYbkZ_d]j^Wjj^[WlW_bWXb[feebe\ademb[Z][
_iki[Z\eh[\\_Y_[djfbWdd_d]"[n[Ykj_edWdZYedjhebe\\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$J^_i_i
WiY[hjW_d[Z_dI?BL7fWhj_YkbWhboXo_ji_dfkjWdZekjfkjijhkYjkh[$J^[_d_j_Wb_iW#
j_edfheY[Zkh[ifhel_Z[j^[feii_X_b_jo\ehi_ckbWj_edi[l[dm_j^_dYecfb[j[ZWjW
WdZWbbemj^[ki[e\i_j[_d\ehcWj_edWjl[hoZ_\\[h[djh[iebkj_edb[l[bi$J^[ekj#
fkjc[j^eZiWdZjeebiWh[Z[l[bef[Z_dYbei[YedjWYjm_j^\eh[ijcWdW][hiWdZ
j^kiWh[Z[i_]d[Zjec[[jj^[_h_d\ehcWj_edZ[cWdZi$?dYecfWh_iedjeYbWii_YWb
o_[bZjWXb[i"I?BL7fhel_Z[iWZZ_j_edWb_d\ehcWj_edj^WjWbbemij^[[ij_cWj_ede\
ced[jWhoo_[bZWim[bbWij^[Y^WhWYj[h_iWj_ede\ijWdZijhkYjkh[WdZÄjeWY[h#
jW_dZ[]h[[ÄX_eZ_l[hi_jo$
GkWdj_jWj_l[ ceZ[b lWb_ZWj_ed mWi YWhh_[Z ekj _d YecfWh_d] i_ckbWj[Z WdZ
eXi[hl[Z ]hemj^ ki_d] j^[ [nWcfb[ e\ ,'+ h[i[WhY^ fbej _dl[djeh_[i Fh[jpiY^
[jWb$(&&($H[]WhZ_d]lebkc[_dYh[c[dj"lWb_ZWj_edh[ikbj[Z_dWl[hobemX_Wi"
m^_Y^mWib[iij^Wd*$.el[h#ehkdZ[h[ij_cWj_ed"h[if[Yj_l[bo$H[bWj_l[fh[Y_#
i_edh[ikbj[Z_dZ[l_Wj_edihWd]_d]\hec'.$+Ä).$,\ehj^[h[if[Yj_l[jh[[if[#
Y_[i$7YYkhWYoh[ikbjiZ_ZdejZ_\\[hYedi_Z[hWXbo\hecfh[Y_i_ed$
M_j^ h[if[Yj je _ji gkWb_jWj_l[ X[^Wl_ekh j^[ ceZ[b _i i^emd je h[WYj _d WY#
YehZWdY[ m_j^ X_ebe]_YWb ademb[Z][ WdZ fhWYj_YWb i_bl_YkbjkhWb[nf[h_[dY[" ikY^
È 4HEÈ)NDIVIDUAL
4REE
"ASEDÈ3TANDÈ3IMULATORÈ3),6! .)
Wi 7iicWddÉi YedY[fj e\ efj_ckc XWiWb Wh[W" H[_d[a[Éi m_Z[bo WYY[fj[Z cWn_#
ckc Z[di_jo hkb[ WdZ j^[ ijhkYjkh[#h[bWj[Z ]hemj^ ZodWc_Yi e\ c_n[Z ijWdZi
Y\$Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($
È
-ODELÈ!PPLICATION
J^[I?BL7i_ckbWjeh_i_cfb[c[dj[ZWiWie\jmWh[fhe]hWc\ehki[m_j^j^[
ef[hWj_d] ioij[ci CWYEI" M_dZemi /+%/.%(&&&%DJ%NF$ ?d ehZ[h je ]W_d _dZ[#
f[dZ[dY[ \hec j^[ Ykhh[dj ef[hWj_d] ioij[c j^[ Yeh[ ceZkb[i Wh[ jhWdi\[hh[Z
\hec EX`[Yj FWiYWb fhe]hWcc_d] bWd]kW][ je 9!!$ ?dfkj WdZ ekjfkj _dj[h\WY#
[iWh[Z[i_]d[ZjeX[Wffhefh_Wj[\ehfhWYj_YWbki[\hec_dj[hWYj_l[ef[hWj_d]Wj
ijWdZb[l[bjeXWjY^ef[hWj_edWj[dj[hfh_i[b[l[b$J^[ki[hcWdkWb_i[Z_j[ZWY#
YehZ_d]jeh[Y[djboZ[\_d[Z=[hcWdWdZ?dj[hdWj_edWbijWdZWhZiY\$9^Wf$)"j^_i
Leb$$
I?BL7YWdX[ki[Z_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj\ehef[hWj_edWbWdZijhWj[]_YfbWd#
d_d]$ <eh ef[hWj_edWb fkhfei[i cWdW][c[dj fbWdi eh j_cX[h fheZkYj_ed fhe]#
dei_i YWd X[ Z[h_l[Z \eh i_d]b[ ijWdZi" \eh[ij [dj[hfh_i[i WdZ bWdZiYWf[ kd_ji
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$'//.$?d][d[hWb"j^_i_i[n[Ykj[ZedWi^ehj#ehc[Z_kc#j[hcf[h#
if[Yj_l[$?dijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]"m^_Y^dehcWbboYel[hibed][hj_c[f[h_eZi"I?BL7
^[bfijeZ[l[befcWdW][c[dj]k_Z[b_d[i\ehY[hjW_djh[[if[Y_[iehijWdZjof[i
kdZ[hfWhj_YkbWhi_j[YedZ_j_ediFh[jpiY^(&&)$
9edi_Z[h_d] \eh[ij h[i[WhY^" I?BL7 _i _dj[dZ[Z je _dl[ij_]Wj[ jh[[ WdZ ijWdZ
h[ifedi[ijeY^Wd]_d][dl_hedc[djWbYedZ_j_edi"_dYbkZ_d]j^ei[_dZkY[ZXoi_b#
l_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djehYb_cWj[Y^Wd][_cfWYji[$]$8_X[h[jWb$'//.$J^_i_i
feii_Xb[ X[YWki[ jhWZ_j_edWbbo ]W_d[Z ademb[Z][ \hec bed]#j[hc [nf[h_c[djWb
fbeji^WiX[[dW]]h[]Wj[Z_djej^[i_ckbWjehWdZYWdj^kiX[ki[ZjeWii[iiWdo
YecX_dWj_ed e\ YedZ_j_edi j^Wj Wh[ m_j^_d j^[ hWd][ e\ j^[ _cfb[c[dj[Z _d\eh#
cWj_ed$I_dY[j^_iWbbemiWbie\ehd[mYecX_dWj_edi"j^[_cfb[c[djWj_ede\[n#
f[h_c[djWbfbejiYWdYedY[djhWj[edj^[_dl[ij_]Wj_ede\WYjkWbbod[mYedZ_j_edi$
?dj^_ih[if[Yj"I?BL7YWdWbiei[hl[jeZ[\_d[j^[h[gk_h[c[dji\ehd[m[nf[h_#
c[dji$
I?BL7YWdX[ki[Z\ehjhW_d_d]e\ded#fhe\[ii_edWbfh_lWj[\eh[ijemd[hi"\eh#
[ij cWdW][hi WdZ ijkZ[dji" Wi m[bb Wi je ikffehj fkXb_Y h[bWj_edi$ <eh [nWcfb["
j^_dd_d]YWdX[[n[Ykj[ZWdZ_ji[\\[YjYWdX[_cfh[ii_l[boZ[cedijhWj[Zm_j^j^[
i_ckbWjehÉi ijWdZ l_ikWb_iWj_ed ioij[c Fh[jpiY^ WdZ I[_\[hj '///$ Jh[[i YWd X[
cWha[ZXoj^[ki[hjeX[i[b[Yj[Z\ehj^_dd_d]ehWi\_dWbYhef#jh[[i"h[if[Yj_l[bo$
Iej^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[ijWdZcWoX[i^emdWiWYedi[gk[dY[e\cWdW][c[dj
WYj_l_j_[i$7ZZ_j_edWbbo"I?BL7_iki[\kb\ehj^[Z[cedijhWj_ede\X_ebe]_YWbWdZ[Y#
ebe]_YWbfh_dY_fb[ie\\eh[ijZodWc_Yi$<eh[nWcfb["]hemj^e\b_]^j#Z[cWdZ_d]
WdZi^WZ[#jeb[hWdjjh[[if[Y_[iWim[bbWij^[ZodWc_Yie\Z_\\[h[djboijhkYjkh[Z
ijWdZicWoX[eXi[hl[ZWdZYecfWh[Zel[hj_c[$
.* #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
2EFERENCES
È
34!.$È!È$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMÈFORÈTHEÈ-ANAGEMENTÈÈ
OFÈ%VEN
!GEDÈ3TANDSÈINÈ&INLAND
J_ceFkaaWbW''"@Wh_C__dW'(
!BSTRACTÈ!ÈSTAND
LEVELÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ34!.$ÈCANÈBEÈUSEDÈTOÈSTUDYÈHOWÈFORESTÈ
MANAGEMENTÈSHOULDÈCHANGEÈALONGSIDEÈCHANGINGÈGOALSÈ3UCHÈGUIDELINESÈAREÈLAIDÈDOWNÈBYÈAÈ
COMBINEDÈUSEÈOFÈAÈSIMULATIONÈMODELÈANDÈNUMERICALÈOPTIMIZATIONÈ4HEÈTREE
LEVELÈSIMULATIONÈ
MODELÈACCOMMODATESÈTHEÈRELATIONSHIPSÈBETWEENÈMANAGEMENTÈACTIONSÈANDÈOUTPUTSÈTHATÈ
THEÈFORESTÈPRODUCESÈWHILEÈOPTIMIZATIONÈSEARCHESÈFORÈTHEÈBESTÈCOMBINATIONÈOFÈMANAGEMENTÈ
ACTIONSÈ THROUGHÈ WHICHÈ THEÈ FORESTÈ YIELDSÈ THEÈ BESTÈ COMBINATIONÈ OFÈ MULTIPLEÈ PRODUCTSÈ ANDÈ
SERVICESÈ34!.$SÈSPECIFICÈFEATUREÈISÈTHEÈPOSSIBILITYÈTOÈDEALÈWITHÈMULTIPLEÈOBJECTIVESÈRISKSÈ
ANDÈRISKÈPREFERENCES
È
)NTRODUCTION
Fh_lWj[\eh[ijbWdZemd[hiZedejkikWbbofheZkY[j_cX[h\ehj^[_hemdYed#
ikcfj_edXkji[bb_jjeeXjW_d_dYec[$7YYehZ_d]bo"\hecWbWdZemd[hÉife_dje\
l_[m"_j_idejhWj_edWbjecWn_c_p[j_cX[hfheZkYj_ed$D[_j^[h_i_jhWj_edWbjeWb#
mWoicWn_c_p[d[j_dYec["X[YWki[j^_i]eWbZe[idejYedi_Z[hj^[effehjkd_jo
Yeije\j^[]hem_d]ijeYaWdZj^[bWdZ$
<eh[ij emd[hi YWd X[ij cWn_c_p[ j^[_h [Yedec_Y X[d[\_j \hec j^[ \eh[ij Xo
cWn_c_p_d] j^[ fh[i[dj lWbk[ e\ d[j _dYec[i _$[$ j^[ ie_b [nf[YjWj_ed lWbk[" eh
I;L$>em[l[h"l[ho\[m<_dd_i^\eh[ijemd[hii[[cjecWdW][j^[_h\eh[ijiWY#
YehZ_d]jej^_ieX`[Yj_l[$?\W^_]^I;L_ifkhik[Z"m_j^Z_iYekdj_d]hWj[ie\)
ehceh["efj_ckccWdW][c[djYWbbi\ehbWj[h_d_j_Wj_ede\be]]_d]"^[Wl_[hj^_d#
d_d]i" WdZ i^ehj[h hejWj_ed j^Wd _d j^[ fh[i[dj ijWdZ cWdW][c[dj [$]$ LWbijW
'//(1FkaaWbW[jWb$'//-$
Ed[h[Wiedm^o\eh[ijiWh[dejcWdW][Z\eh^_]^I;L_ij^[\WYjj^Wj\eh[ij
emd[hi^Wl[]eWbiej^[hj^WdI;L$J^[\eh[ijcWoX[i[[dWiWiekhY[e\[Yedec#
_Y i[Ykh_jo" b_gk_Z_jo" h[Yh[Wj_edWb feii_X_b_j_[i" WdZ ej^[h Wc[d_j_[i$ Ded#j_cX[h
\eh[ijfheZkYjiWdZdWjkh[Yedi[hlWj_edcWoWbieX[e\_cfehjWdY[jeiec[\eh#
[ijemd[hi$
8[YWki[j^[]eWbiY[hjW_dbolWhoWced]ijWdZi"\eh[iji"WdZ\eh[ijemd[hi"i_d#
]b[ fhW]cWj_Y _dijhkYj_edi edÆfhef[hÇ \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj Wh[ _dik\\_Y_[dj$ J^[
_dijhkYj_edii^ekbZhWj^[h_dZ_YWj[^em\eh[ijcWdW][c[dji^ekbZY^Wd][Wbed]#
i_Z[Y^Wd]_d]]eWbi$IkY^]k_Z[b_d[iYekbZX[\ehckbWj[ZXoWYecX_d[Zki[e\W
i_ckbWj_edceZ[bWdZdkc[h_YWbefj_c_pWj_ed$J^[i_ckbWj_edceZ[bWYYecce#
'' [#cW_b0j_ce$fkaaWbW6`e[dikk$\_<WYkbjoe\<eh[ijho"Kd_l[hi_joe\@e[dikk"F$E$8en'''"
.&'&'@e[dikk"<_dbWdZ
'( <_dd_i^<eh[ijH[i[WhY^?dij_jkj["@e[dikkH[i[WhY^9[djh["8en,.".&'&'@e[dikk"<_dbWdZ
., #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
ZWj[ij^[h[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[dcWdW][c[djWYj_ediWdZekjfkjij^Wjj^[\eh[ij
fheZkY[i"m^_b[efj_c_pWj_edi[WhY^[i\ehj^[X[ijYecX_dWj_ede\cWdW][c[dj
WYj_edi"j^hek]^m^_Y^j^[\eh[ijo_[bZij^[X[ijYecX_dWj_ede\ckbj_fb[fheZ#
kYjiWdZi[hl_Y[i$J^[fWhWc[j[hij^Wjif[Y_\oj^[jh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[Wh[YWbb[Z
Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i$J^[Æ]eeZd[iiÇe\j^[ekjfkjieXjW_dWXb[\hecj^[\eh[ijm_j^
W]_l[di[je\Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i_iZ[iYh_X[Zl_WeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ed$
7ioij[cm_j^j^[i[fhef[hj_[icWoX[YWbb[ZWijWdZ#b[l[bZ[Y_i_edikffehj
ioij[c$IJ7D:_iWie\jmWh[fheZkYjj^WjX[bed]ijej^_iYWj[]eho$?jiif[Y_\_Y\[W#
jkh[i Wh[ j^[ feii_X_b_jo je Z[Wb m_j^ ckbj_fb[ eX`[Yj_l[i" h_iai" WdZ h_ia fh[\[h#
[dY[i$Ckbj_fb[eX`[Yj_l[iWh[cWZ[YecfWhWXb[Xoki_d]Wckbj_#Wjjh_Xkj[kj_b_jo
\kdYj_edWij^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ed$J^[eh_]_dWb]eWblWh_WXb[ic[Wikh[Z_dj^[_h
emdkd_jiWh[iYWb[Z_dj^[hWd][e\&Ä'"W\j[hm^_Y^j^[_hm[_]^j[Zikc_iYWbYk#
bWj[ZjeeXjW_dWkj_b_jolWbk[\ehj^[_dif[Yj[Zjh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[$IJ7D:YWdWb#
ieYedi_Z[hlWh_ekih_ia\WYjehim^[dhWda_d]cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$<khj^[h#
ceh["j^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hÉiWjj_jkZ[jemWhZih_iacWoX[_dj[]hWj[Z_dj^[Yec#
fWh_iedfheY[ii$
J^_i i[Yj_ed \_hij Z[iYh_X[i ^em j^[ eX`[Yj_l[ \kdYj_ed ki[Z _d j^[ IJ7D:
ie\jmWh[_i\ehckbWj[Ziej^Wj_ji_ckbjWd[ekiboc[Wikh[ij^[gkWb_joe\WijWdZÉi
jh[Wjc[dj iY^[Zkb[ \hec j^[ l_[mfe_dji e\ ckbj_fb[ eX`[Yj_l[i" h_iai" WdZ h_ia
fh[\[h[dY[i$J^[d"j^[i_ckbWj_edikX#ioij[c_iXh_[\boZ[iYh_X[Z$
È
/PTIMIZATION
È
)NTEGRATINGÈ2ISK
H_ia_igkWdj_\_[ZkdY[hjW_djo$J^[h_iaWiieY_Wj[Zm_j^\kjkh[j_cX[hfh_Y[i
WdZ]hemj^e\jh[[i_ijWa[d_djeWYYekdjXofheZkY_d]cWdoWbj[hdWj_l[iY[dWh#
_ei\eh\kjkh[j_cX[hfh_Y[iWdZ]hemj^b[l[be\jh[[i$J^[lWbk[e\j^[eX`[Yj_l[
\kdYj_ed_iYWbYkbWj[Zm_j^WbbiY[dWh_ei"fheZkY_d]WZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\j^[kj_b_jo_d#
Z[n$J^[m_Z[hj^_iZ_ijh_Xkj_ed"j^[ceh[j^[h[_ikdY[hjW_djoYedY[hd_d]j^[lWb#
k[e\j^[cWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb[$
7dej^[hiekhY[e\h_ia"m^_Y^Ze[idejWh_i[\hecj^[ded#Z[j[hc_d_ij_YdW#
jkh[e\ekjYec[i"Wh[j^[fh[\[h[dY[ie\j^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h$J^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h
_ii[bZecikh[WXekj^_ieh^[hfh[\[h[dY[i$J^[h_iaZk[jej^_i\WYj_iWYYecce#
ZWj[Z_dj^[lWbk_d]fheY[iiXocWa_d]j^[_cfehjWdY[ie\eX`[Yj_l[iWdZj^[Z_i#
Yekdj_d]hWj[iijeY^Wij_Y$M^[dh[f[Wj_d]j^[YWbYkbWj_ede\j^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdY#
j_edlWbk[m_j^lWho_d]j_cX[hfh_Y[WdZ]hemj^b[l[b"j^[m[_]^jie\]eWbiWdZj^[
Z_iYekdj_d]hWj[iWh[WbielWh_[ZWYYehZ_d]jeki[h#if[Y_\_[ZfWhWc[j[hi$
È 34!.$È!È$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMÈFORÈTHEÈ-ANAGEMENT .-
È
)NTEGRATINGÈ-ULTIPLEÈ/BJECTIVES
J^[mWojeZ[Wbm_j^i[l[hWbi_ckbjWd[ekicWdW][c[dj]eWbi_ijeiYWbWh_p[
j^[efj_c_pWj_edjWia_djeWi_d]b[#eX`[Yj_l[fheXb[cj^hek]^WdWZZ_j_l[kj_b_jo
\kdYj_ed"Wi\ebbemi0
c
3
K`3 W_`k_`
_3'
_dm^_Y^K`_ij^[kj_b_jo_dZ[ne\ekjYec[`e\W]_l[dcWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb["
k_`_ij^[ikX#kj_b_jofheZkY[Zj^hek]^eX`[Yj_l[_1W_`_iWijeY^Wij_Yh[bWj_l[_c#
fehjWdY[e\eX`[Yj_l[_"WdZc_ij^[dkcX[he\eX`[Yj_l[i$?dZ[j[hc_d_ij_Yefj_#
c_pWj_ed"edboed[ekjYec[_iYWbYkbWj[Z\ehj^[cWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb["m^_b[ije#
Y^Wij_Yefj_c_pWj_edfheZkY[icWdo[$]$'&&ekjYec[i\eh[l[ho_dif[Yj[ZYec#
X_dWj_ede\Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i$
J^[\ehckbW[jeZ[h_l[j^[ikX#kj_b_j_[ik_`"ademdWiikX#kj_b_jo\kdYj_edi"
Wh[ki[Zjeh[cel[j^[[\\[Yje\Z_ii_c_bWh_joe\j^[kd_jie\Z_\\[h[djeX`[Yj_l[i"Xo
iYWb_d]WbbeX`[Yj_l[iX[jm[[d&WdZ'$J^_i_iZed[XoZ_l_Z_d]j^[eh_]_dWbc[Wi#
kh[Xoj^[cWn_ckcfeii_Xb[lWbk[e\j^[lWh_WXb[_dgk[ij_edi_d]b[#eX`[Yj_l[
cWn_ckc"m^_Y^c[Wdij^Wjb_d[WhikX#kj_b_jo\kdYj_ediWh[Wiikc[Z0
k_`3g_`%g_cWn
_dm^_Y^g_`_ij^[lWbk[e\ekjYec[`e\eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[_"WdZg_cWn_ij^[
cWn_ckcfeii_Xb[lWbk[e\eX`[Yj_l[_$
È
4IMEÈ0REFERENCES
J^[eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[ij^Wj\eh[ijbWdZemd[hicWo^Wl[Wh[[_j^[hfheZkYji
Yebb[Yj[Z\hecj^[\eh[ijeh_dYec[\hecj^[i[fheZkYjiehi[hl_Y[ij^WjYWdX[
Z[iYh_X[Zj^hek]^j^[ijWj[e\j^[\eh[ij"ikY^WilWbk[e\j^[]hem_d]ijeYa"X_#
eZ_l[hi_jo _dZ[n" eh ik_jWX_b_jo e\ j^[ ijWdZ \eh h[Yh[Wj_ed$ J^[ j_c[ fh[\[h[dY#
[iYedd[Yj[Zjej^[fheZkYjiWh[jWa[d_djeWYYekdjj^hek]^Z_iYekdj_d]"WdZXo
Yecfkj_d]j^[ikce\j^[fh[i[djd[jlWbk[ie\j^[fheZkYjeXjW_d[ZWjZ_\\[h#
[djj_c[fe_dji0
j(
g 3
_`3 n_`a%'!&$&'h_`
j3j
'
j
m^[h[j_ij_c[dkcX[he\o[Whi"n_`j_igkWdj_joe\fheZkYj_eXjW_d[Z\hec
ekjYec[`_do[Whj"WdZh_`_ij^[ijeY^Wij_YZ_iYekdj_d]hWj[_df[hY[dj\eheX#
`[Yj_l[_$
J^[iWc[_Z[W_iWffb_[ZjeijWj[lWh_WXb[i$J^[eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[_ij^[_dj[#
]hWbe\j^[Z_iYekdj[ZlWbk[e\j^[ijWj[lWh_WXb[X[jm[[djmej_c[fe_dji0
.. #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
j(
°
g_`3 n_`a%'!&$&'h_`jZj
j'
È
2ISKÈ0REFERENCES
J^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hÉiWjj_jkZ[jemWhZh_ia_ijWa[d_djeWYYekdjXo]_l_d]Z_\#
\[h[djm[_]^jijeZ_\\[h[djfWhjie\j^[kj_b_joZ_ijh_Xkj_ed$7kj_b_jo_dZ[nYehh[Yj#
[ZXoh_iafh[\[h[dY[iK_iYecfkj[ZWiWm[_]^j[Zikce\Wb_c_j[ZdkcX[h
e\WYYkckbWj_edfe_djie\j^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ed\kdYj_ede\j^[kj_b_jo_dZ[nFkaaW#
bWWdZC__dW'//-0
d
K3 3 m K
a3' a a
_dm^_Y^d_ij^[dkcX[he\WYYkckbWj_edfe_dji"WdZmaWdZKaWh[j^[m[_]^j
WdZkj_b_jo_dZ[ne\j^[aj^WYYkckbWj_edfe_dje\j^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ed\kdYj_ede\K"
h[if[Yj_l[bo$
È
/PTIMIZATIONÈ-ETHOD
IJ7D:ki[ij^[ded#b_d[Whfhe]hWcc_d]Wb]eh_j^ce\>eea[WdZ@[[l[ije
\_dZj^[YecX_dWj_edZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ij^WjcWn_c_p[j^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ed$J^[
Yecfkj[h fhe]hWc Z[l[bef[Z Xo EioYpaW '/.* mWi ceZ_\_[Z WdZ WZWfj[Z je
meham_j^j^[fh[i[djfheXb[c\ehckbWj_ed$
:k[ je W ded#Yedl[n eX`[Yj_l[ lWh_WXb[ ed[ YWd d[l[h X[ ikh[ j^Wj j^[ ]be#
XWbefj_ckc^WiX[[d\ekdZ$J^[h[\eh["je\_dZj^[]beXWbefj_ckc"[WY^fheX#
b[c^WijeX[iebl[Zi[l[hWbj_c[iki_d]Z_\\[h[dj_d_j_WblWbk[ie\Z[Y_i_edlWh_W#
Xb[i$J^[efj_c_pWj_edWb]ej^c"m^_Y^_iXWi[ZedZ_h[Yji[WhY^"ki[ij^[X[ije\W
if[Y_\_[ZdkcX[he\hWdZecboi[b[Yj[Z\[Wi_Xb[fe_djiWij^[_d_j_Wbfe_dje\WZ_#
h[Yji[WhY^hkd$
È
3IMULATIONÈ-ODEL
È
-ODELSÈFORÈ5NCONTROLLABLEÈ6ARIABLES
J^[i_ckbWj_edikX#ioij[ce\IJ7D:_dYbkZ[iijeY^Wij_YceZ[bi\ehj_cX[h
fh_Y[WdZ]hemj^hWj[e\jh[[i$?\ijeY^Wij_Yfh[\[h[dY[iW_`"h_`Wh[ki[Z"j^[ki[h
ckij]_l[j^[ijWdZWhZZ[l_Wj_ede\j^[fh[\[h[dY[fWhWc[j[h"_dWZZ_j_edjej^[
È 34!.$È!È$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMÈFORÈTHEÈ-ANAGEMENT ./
c[WdlWbk[$J^[ijeY^Wij_YceZ[bie\FWiWd[d'//+Wh[ki[ZjefheZkY[iY[dWh#
_ei\ehj^[WddkWb]hemj^hWj[]hemj^_dZ_Y[ie\jh[[if_d["ifhkY["WdZX_hY^$
J^[ceZ[bijWa[_djeWYYekdjj^[Yehh[bWj_edX[jm[[do[Whij[cfehWbWkjeYeh#
h[bWj_ed"Wim[bbWij^[Yehh[bWj_edX[jm[[djh[[if[Y_[iYheiiYehh[bWj_ed$J^[
ijeY^Wij_YceZ[bie\B[ia_d[d'//+Wh[ki[Zjei_ckbWj[fh_Y[iY[dWh_ei\ehZ_\#
\[h[djj_cX[hWiiehjc[djif_d[be]"f_d[fkbf"ifhkY[be]"ifhkY[fkbf"X_hY^be]"
X_hY^ fkbf$ 7bie j^[i[ ceZ[bi ][d[hWj[ j^[ j[cfehWb WkjeYehh[bWj_ed WdZ j^[
YheiiYehh[bWj_edijhkYjkh[_dj^[j_c[i[h_[ij^Wjj^[ofheZkY[$
È
3TANDÈ3IMULATOR
I_ckbWj_ede\ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj_iXWi[Zed_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i$J^[i_ckbWj_ed
X[]_dim_j^XWh[bWdZ$J^[ijWdZ[ijWXb_i^c[dj_ifh[Z_Yj[Zm_j^j^[ceZ[bie\
C__dWWdZIWaiW(&&*$J^[ceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[dkcX[he\fbWdj[Zjh[[if[h^[Y#
jWh["Wim[bbWij^[Wcekdje\dWjkhWbboh[][d[hWj[Zf_d["ifhkY["X_hY^"WdZ^WhZ#
meeZYeff_Y[$IjWdZZ[l[befc[dj_ii_ckbWj[Z_d+#o[Whj_c[ij[fi$LWh_ekiceZ#
[bi Wh[ ki[Z je fh[Z_Yj j^[ `kl[d_b[ ^[_]^j ]hemj^i WdZ Z_Wc[j[hi e\ i[[Zb_d]i
\hecj^[i[[Zb_d]ijW][jej^[iWfb_d]ijW][ZX^+Yc"W\j[hm^_Y^j^[_dZ_l_Zk#
Wb#jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bie\Dooiid[dWdZC_[b_a_d[d'/-.Wh[ki[Z$7j[dZ_d]
jh[Wjc[dj_ii_ckbWj[ZWjWijWdZW][e\+Ä(&o[WhiZ[f[dZ_d]edi_j[WdZfbWdj#
[Z jh[[ if[Y_[i$ ?j h[cel[i Wbb Yeff_Y[i WdZ h[]kbWj[i j^[ \h[gk[dY_[i e\ ej^[h
jh[[i$J^[ijWdZ[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZj[dZ_d]Yeiji"ki[Z_dj^[i_ckbWjeh"Wh[XWi[Z
edYeijijWj_ij_Yi$
J^[i[b\#j^_dd_d]ceZ[bie\FkaaWbWWdZC__dW'//-Wh[ki[ZjeYWbYkbWj[
j^[ cWn_ckc ijWdZ Z[di_jo \eh W ]_l[d c[Wd jh[[ Z_Wc[j[h$ CehjWb_jo eYYkhi
m^[dj^_ib_c_j_ifWii[Z"Yh[Wj_d]ed[ehi[l[hWbYe^ehjie\ijWdZ_d]Z[WZmeeZ
idW]i$?\j^[WYjkWbijWdZXWiWbWh[W[nY[[Zij^_ib_c_j"j^[\h[gk[dY_[ie\jh[[i
Wh[Z[Yh[Wi[Zkdj_bj^[ijWdZXWiWbWh[W_i[gkWbjej^[b_c_j$J^[h[celWbi\hec
Z_\\[h[djZ_Wc[j[hYbWii[iWdZjh[[if[Y_[iWh[fhefehj_edWbjej^[Zo_d]fheXW#
X_b_joe\j^[fWhj_YkbWhif[Y_[iWdZjh[[i_p["WiYecfkj[ZXoj^[ceZ[be\E`Wdi#
kk[jWb$'//'$
:kh_d]Wj_c[ij[f"WfWhje\WidW]Ye^ehj\ehciWZemd#meeZYe^ehj"_jih[b#
Wj_l[\h[gk[dYo[gkWbb_d]j^[fheXWX_b_joe\\Wbb_d]Zemd$8ej^idW]WdZZemd#
meeZYe^ehjiZ[Yecfei[m_j^j_c["j^[Z[Yecfei_j_edhWj[X[_d]Yb[Whbo^_]^[h
\ehZemd#meeZj^Wd\ehidW]i$
IjWdZ Z[l[befc[dj _i i_ckbWj[Z kdj_b W j^_dd_d] W][ eh j^[ hejWj_ed W][ _i
h[WY^[Z"W\j[hm^_Y^WYkjj_d]_ii_ckbWj[Z$?dj^[\_dWbYkj"h[j[dj_edjh[[icWoX[
b[\jjeYedj_dk[]hem_d]"Z[f[dZ_d]edj^[Ykhh[dj_dfkjlWbk[ e\j^[h[j[dj_ed
jh[[fWhWc[j[h$J^[heWZi_Z[lWbk[e\j^[h[cel[Zlebkc[]heii_dYec[_iYWb#
YkbWj[Zki_d]j^[ijeY^Wij_Ykd_jfh_Y[ie\Z_\\[h[djj_cX[hWiiehjc[dji$J^[Wi#
iehjc[djlebkc[iWh[YWbYkbWj[Zki_d]j^[jWf[h\kdYj_edie\BWWiWi[dW^e'/.($
J^[^Whl[ij_d]Yeij_iYWbYkbWj[Zm_j^j^[ceZ[bie\LWbijW'//($
I_ckbWj_ed _i Yedj_dk[Z \eh ed[ eh i[l[hWb WZZ_j_edWb hejWj_edi" a[[f_d] j^[
Z[WZmeeZ Ye^ehji WdZ h[j[dj_ed jh[[i e\ j^[ fh[l_eki hejWj_edi$ J^[ i_ckbW#
j_ed_iej^[hm_i[i_c_bWhjej^WjZkh_d]j^[\_hijhejWj_ed[nY[fjj^Wjj^[h[Wh[_d#
/& #(!04%2È :[iYh_fj_ede\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biKi[Z
_j_Wbh[j[dj_edjh[[Ye^ehjiWdZ_d_j_WbZ[WZmeeZ$J^[]hemj^e\h[j[dj_edjh[[i_i
i_ckbWj[Zki_d]j^[]hemj^ceZ[bie\Dooiid[dWdZC_[b_a_d[d'/-.$7fWhj
e\Wh[j[dj_edjh[[Ye^ehj_im_dZ#j^hemdWdZWdej^[hfWhjcWoZ_[e\i[d[iY[dY[
Zkh_d]Wj_c[ij[f"j^[h[bWj_l[\h[gk[dY_[ie\j^[i[d[mYe^ehjiZ[f[dZ_d]edj^[
fheXWX_b_j_[ie\j^[i[[l[dji$:[WZh[j[dj_edjh[[Ye^ehjiZ[Yecfei[Wjj^[iWc[
hWj[ Wi j^[ ej^[h Z[WZmeeZ Ye^ehji$ 7 ijWdZ_d] Z[WZmeeZ Ye^ehj eh_]_dWj_d]
\hecWh[j[dj_edjh[[Ye^ehj\WbbiZemdm_j^j^[iWc[fheXWX_b_joWiej^[hidW]i$
H[j[dj_edjh[[iWh[Wiikc[Zjeh[ZkY[j^[]hem_d]ifWY[j^Wj_iWlW_bWXb[je
j^[ej^[hjh[[i0j^[_h[\\[Yjedj^[ej^[h]hem_d]ijeYa_ii_ckbWj[Zj^hek]^WdWh#
[Wckbj_fb_[h$J^[i^Wh[e\]hem_d]ifWY[jWa[dXoh[j[dj_edjh[[i_i[gkWbjej^[
hWj_ee\j^[XWiWbWh[We\h[j[dj_edjh[[ijej^[cWn_ckcijWdZXWiWbWh[Wj^Wjj^[
i_j[YWdikijW_d$?\j^[XWiWbWh[We\h[j[dj_edjh[[iZ[Yh[Wi[iZk[jecehjWb_jo"j^[
]hem_d]ifWY[WlW_bWXb[jeej^[hjh[[i_dYh[Wi[i"Yh[Wj_d]WYY[b[hWj[Z]hemj^$?j_i
Wiikc[Zj^Wjj^[ej^[hjh[[iYWd\kbbokj_b_i[j^[]hem_d]ifWY[b[\jXoZ[WZh[#
j[dj_edjh[[i$J^_ia_dZe\i_ckbWj_ed_ih[WiedWXb[m^[dh[j[dj_edjh[[ieYYkh_d
Z[di[WdZicWbb]hekfim^_Y^_ij^[Ykhh[djfhWYj_Y[$
?dWZZ_j_edjeYeijiWdZ_dYec[i"j^[i_ckbWjehYWbYkbWj[iWh[Yh[Wj_ediYeh[
FkaaWbW[jWb$'/..WdZX_eZ_l[hi_jo_dZ[n\ehj^[ijWdZWj[l[hoj_c[fe_dj$J^[
X_eZ_l[hi_jo _dZ[n _i W m[_]^j[Z ikc e\ iYWb[Z lWbk[i e\ lWh_eki ijhkYjkhWb [b[#
c[djifh[i[dj_dj^[ijWdZ$J^[ijhkYjkhWb[b[c[djiWh[0lebkc[ie\Z_\\[h[djjh[[
if[Y_[i" lebkc[i e\ '&#Yc#Z_Wc[j[h YbWii[i" WdZ lebkc[i e\ Z[WZmeeZ Yecfe#
d[dji ijWdZ_d] Z[WZmeeZ WdZ Zemd#meeZ$ ;WY^ [b[c[dj _dYh[Wi[i j^[ _dZ[n
\Wijkfje)&c)%^W"W\j[hm^_Y^_jiWZZ_j_edWbYedjh_Xkj_edX[Yec[il[hoicWbb$
?dWij[WZo#ijWj[efj_c_pWj_edj^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[_iYWbYkbWj[Z\hec
j^[bWiji_ckbWj[ZhejWj_ed"m^_Y^_iWiikc[ZjeX[h[f[Wj[Zje_d\_d_jo$J^[ej^[h
hejWj_ediWh[ki[Zje_d_j_Wb_p[j^[ij[WZo#ijWj[Wcekdjie\Z[WZmeeZWdZh[j[d#
j_edjh[[Ye^ehjifh[i[djWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\j^[bWijhejWj_ed$
?defj_c_pWj_edi\ehXWh[bWdZj^[m^eb[i_ckbWj_edf[h_eZi[l[hWbhejWj_edi
_iki[ZjeYWbYkbWj[j^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[$7bie_dj^_iYWi[_j_iWiikc[Zj^Wj
j^[bWijhejWj_edm_bbX[h[f[Wj[Zje_d\_d_jo$
2EFERENCES
,AASASENAHOÈ*ÈÈ4APERÈCURVEÈANDÈVOLUMEÈFUNCTIONSÈFORÈPINEÈSPRUCEÈANDÈBIRCHÈ#OMMUNÈ
)NSTÈ&ORÈ&ENNÈÈÈPP
,ESKINENÈ 0È È 0UUNÈ REAALISTENÈ KANTOHINTOJENÈ MALLITTAMINENÈ JAÈ SIMULOINTIÈ -3CÈ 4HESISÈ INÈ
3TATISTICSÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ*OENSUUÈ&INLANDÈÈPPÈÈÈAPPENDIXES
-IINAÈ*È3AKSAÈ4È È0REDICTINGÈTHEÈREGENERATIONÈESTABLISHMENTÈINÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈPLANTATIONSÈ
USINGÈAÈMULTIVARIATEÈMULTILEVELÈMODELÈMANUSCRIPT
.YYSSÚNENÈ!È-IELIKËINENÈ+È È%STIMATIONÈOFÈSTANDÈINCREMENTÈINÈ&INNISHÈWITHÈ%NGLISHÈSUM
MARY È!CTAÈ&ORÈ&ENNÈÈÈPP
/JANSUUÈ2È(YNYNENÈ*È+OIVUNENÈ*È,UOMAÈ0È È,UONNONPROSESSITÈMETSËLASKELMASSAÈ-%,! È
nÈ-ETSËÈÈnÈVERSIOÈINÈ&INNISH È2ESÈ0APÈÈ&INNISHÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ)NSTITUTEÈ*OENSUUÈ
ÈPP
/SYCZKAÈ !È È -ULTICRITERIONÈ OPTIMIZATIONÈ INÈ ENGINEERINGÈ WITHÈ &/242!.È PROGRAMSÈ (OR
WOODÈ#HICHESTERÈÈPP
2EFERENCES /'
0ASANENÈ+È È)NTEGRATINGÈVARIATIONÈINÈTREEÈGROWTHÈINTOÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈ-3CÈ4HESISÈINÈ&ORE
STRYÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ*OENSUUÈ&INLANDÈÈPP
0UKKALAÈ 4È -IINAÈ *È È !È METHODÈ FORÈ STOCHASTICÈ MULTI
OBJECTIVEÈ OPTIMIZATIONÈ OFÈ STANDÈ
MANAGEMENTÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
0UKKALAÈ4È+ELLOMËKIÈ3È-USTONENÈ%È È0REDICTIONÈOFÈTHEÈAMENITYÈOFÈAÈTREEÈSTANDÈ3CANDÈ*È
&ORÈ2ESÈn
0UKKALAÈ4È-IINAÈ*È+URTTILAÈ-È+OLSTRÚMÈ4È È!ÈSPATIALÈYIELDÈMODELÈFORÈOPTIMIZINGÈTHEÈTHIN
NINGÈREGIMEÈOFÈMIXEDÈSTANDÈOFÈ0INUSÈSYLVESTRISÈANDÈ0ICEAÈABIESÈ3CANDÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
6ALSTAÈ,4È È!NÈOPTIMIZATIONÈMODELÈFORÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈMANAGEMENTÈBASEDÈONÈINDIVIDUAL
TREEÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈ!CTAÈ&ORÈ&ENNÈÈÈPP
#(!04%2È /)
-ODELINGÈ&ORESTÈ2EGENERATION
@Wh_C__dW'"AWbb[;[h_a_d[d(">kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h)
!BSTRACTÈ4HEÈAIMÈOFÈTHISÈCHAPTERÈISÈTOÈREVIEWÈDIFFERENTÈAPPROACHESÈFORÈSIMULATINGÈFORESTÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈ INÈ REGENERATIONÈ MODELINGÈ 4HEÈ FEATURESÈ SHORTCOMINGSÈ FURTHERÈ NEEDSÈ ANDÈ
TRENDSÈ OFÈ REGENERATIONÈ MODELINGÈ AREÈ PRESENTEDÈ ANDÈ DISCUSSEDÈ INÈ THEÈ CONTEXTÈ OFÈ MECHA
NISTICÈ GAPÈ STATISTICALÈ ANDÈ NONPARAMETRICÈ FORESTÈ MODELSÈ 4HEÈ DATAÈ REQUIREMENTSÈ AREÈ ALSOÈ
DESCRIBEDÈ3PECIALÈEMPHASISÈISÈPUTÈONÈSUPPLYINGÈINFORMATIONÈFORÈMODELERSÈAPPLYINGÈINDI
VIDUAL
TREEÈMODELSÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈSTANDS
È
)NTRODUCTION
M_j^_d ikijW_dWXb[ \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj fbWdd_d]" cWj^[cWj_YWb ceZ[bi Wh[
ki[Zjefh[Z_Yj\eh[ijZ[l[befc[djel[hj_c[$Ed[e\j^[ceijZ_\\_YkbjjWiaie\
\eh[ij ceZ[b_d] _i je fh[Z_Yj h[][d[hWj_ed ZodWc_Yi$ M^_b[ ekh kdZ[hijWdZ_d]
e\j^[Z[l[befc[dje\el[hijehojh[[i_im[bbZ[l[bef[Z"cWdofheY[ii[ie\\eh#
[ij h[][d[hWj_ed Wh[ ij_bb feehbo kdZ[hijeeZ X[YWki[ _j cWo X[Z_\\_Ykbj eh [l[d
_cfeii_Xb[jec[Wikh[Wbbj^[\WYjehij^WjW\\[Yjh[][d[hWj_ed$?dWZZ_j_ed"j^[h[
Wh[ijhed]bohWdZecj[cfehWbWdZifWj_WbfheY[ii[ij^WjW\\[Yjj^[X_hj^"]hemj^"
ZWcW][WdZcehjWb_joe\i[[Zb_d]i$<eh[nWcfb["i[[ZfheZkYj_edWdZZ_if[hiWb
Wh[Ybei[bob_da[Zjeif[Y_[i"W]["i_p["l_]ehWdZZ_ijWdY[e\el[hijehojh[[i"Wim[bb
Wijej^[fh[lW_b_d]Yb_cWj_Y\WYjehi[$]$9^WpZed'/..1Aepbemia_(&&("m^[h[#
Wi ][hc_dWj_ed e\ i[[Zi WdZ i[[Zb_d] [ijWXb_i^c[dj Wh[ ceh[ ijeY^Wij_Y$ J^[i[
fheY[ii[ie\][hc_dWj_edWdZ[ijWXb_i^c[djYWdX[Z[h_l[Z\hecie_bWdZm[Wj^#
[hYedZ_j_edi"Yecf[j_j_edXoel[hijehojh[[iWdZ]hekdZl[][jWj_ed"[jY$I_bl_Ykb#
jkhWbjh[Wjc[djiikY^WiYkjj_d]i"i_j[fh[fWhWj_ed"fbWdj_d]WdZZ_h[Yji[[Z_d]Wh[
ki[ZjeWbj[hh[][d[hWj_edYedZ_j_ediWdZj^kijefhecej[[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZZ[#
l[befc[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed<_]$+$'$
J^[j[hcÈh[][d[hWj_edÉYWdh[\[hXej^jej^[fheY[iiWdZjej^[h[ikbj_d]][d#
[hWj_ede\d[mjh[[i$?dj^[b_j[hWjkh["_j_iYeccedj^WjWbbjh[[im^_Y^Wh[dej
' [#cW_b0`Wh_$c__dW6c[jbW$\_
( <_dd_i^<eh[ijH[i[WhY^?dij_jkj["@e[dikkH[i[WhY^9[djh["8en,.".&'&'@e[dikk"<_dbWdZ
) :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i"?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"Kd_l[hi_joe\DWj#
khWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_[dY[i"F[j[h@ehZWdIjhW[.("''/&L_[ddW"7kijh_W
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
/* #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
&IGÈÈ#ONCEPTUALÈANALYSISÈOFÈTHEÈPROCESSESÈAFFECTINGÈFORESTÈREGENERATIONÈANDÈREGENERATIONÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈ!DAPTEDÈANDÈMODIFIEDÈFROMÈ6ALKONENÈ
Yedi_Z[h[Z je X[ el[hijeho jh[[i X[bed] je j^[ kdZ[hijeho WdZ Wh[ j^ki Yedi_Z#
[h[Zh[][d[hWj_ed$J^_iZ_ij_dYj_ed_icW_dboWh[ikbje\j^[ZWjWYebb[Yj_edioij[c"
m^_Y^Z[\_d[ij^[c_d_ckcjh[[Z_c[di_edie\jh[[iX[bed]_d]jej^[el[hijeho
fefkbWj_ed$?dbWh][#iYWb[\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[i"ikY^Wij^[7kijh_WdDWj_edWb<eh[ij
?dl[djeho"Wbbjh[[im_j^WZ_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jZX^]h[Wj[hj^Wd+$+YcWh[
h[YehZ[Z<8L7'//*WdZj^kiYedi_Z[h[ZjeX[j^[el[hijeho$Ej^[hZWjWiekhY#
[i"ikY^Wif[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbejZWjW"cWoYedi_Z[hWbbjh[[ijWbb[hj^WdWY[h#
jW_djh[[^[_]^j[$]$'$)cjeX[_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[el[hijehofefkbWj_ed$J^[i[Z_\#
\[h[dY[i_dj^[j^h[i^ebZb[l[bWh[Wh[ikbje\j^[ZWjW#h[YehZ_d]Z[i_]dWdZcWo
W\\[Yjj^[j^[eh[j_YWbceZ[b\ehckbWj_ediWim[bbWij^[Wffb_YWX_b_joe\h[][d[hW#
j_edceZ[b_d]jeebim_j^_dj^[\hWc[mehae\WijWdZcWdW][c[djioij[c$
J^[Z_ij_dYj_edX[jm[[dh[][d[hWj_edceZ[biWdZie#YWbb[Zh[Yhk_jc[djeh_d#
]hemj^ceZ[bi_i_cfehjWdj$LWdYbWo'//*Z[\_d[ij^[Z_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[dj^[i[
jof[ie\ceZ[biWi\ebbemi0h[][d[hWj_edceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[Z[l[befc[dje\jh[[i
\hec i[[Zi eh i[[Zb_d]i" m^[h[Wi h[Yhk_jc[dj ceZ[bi fh[Z_Yj j^[ dkcX[h WdZ
if[Y_[ie\jh[[ih[WY^_d]iec[if[Y_\_[Zi_p[b_c_j[$]$Xh[Wij^[_]^j$J^ki"h[#
Yhk_jc[djeh_d]hemj^ceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[dkcX[hWdZZ_c[di_edie\d[mjh[[i
[dj[h_d]j^[icWbb[iji_p[YbWiie\j^[el[hijehofefkbWj_edm_j^_dW]_l[df[h_eZ
e\j_c[[$]$B[Z[hcWdd(&&($EdY[jh[[iX[bed]jej^[el[hijeho"]hemj^[gkW#
j_ediWh[ki[ZjeWii[iij^[\khj^[hZ[l[befc[dje\j^[jh[[i$
H[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[bi i_ckbWj[ j^[ ][hc_dWj_ed" [Whbo [ijWXb_i^c[dj WdZ
]hemj^e\d[mjh[[iijWhj_d]\heci[[Z\ehcWj_edehi[[ZiH_XX[di[jWb$'//*$
Iec[ceZ[biZedejijWhj\heci[[Z][hc_dWj_edXkjhWj^[hm^[di[[Zb_d]ih[WY^
bWj[hb_\[ijW][im_j^W^_]^[hfheXWX_b_joe\ikhl_lWb$J^[i[ceZ[bicWoX[YWbb[Z
h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djceZ[bi"WdZj^[oYWdX[Wffb_[ZjeXej^dWjkhWbWdZ
Whj_\_Y_Wbh[][d[hWj_ed$J^[Z[l[befc[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed_iYeccedbofh[Z_Yj[Z
ki_d]`kl[d_b[]hemj^ceZ[bikdj_bj^[i[[Zb_d]i]hem_djej^[icWbb[iji_p[YbWii
e\el[hijehojh[[i$
J^[fkhfei[e\j^_iY^Wfj[h_ijeh[l_[m[n_ij_d]ademb[Z][e\h[][d[hWj_ed
ceZ[b_d] ie j^Wj ceZ[b[hi Wh[ WXb[ je [lWbkWj[ Z_\\[h[dj jof[i e\ h[][d[hWj_ed
ceZ[b_d]WffheWY^[i\hecj^[_hemdfe_dje\l_[m"_$[$Yedi_Z[h_d]j^[ijhkYjkh[
e\j^[_hijWdZi_ckbWjeh"j^[h[][d[hWj_edZWjWWlW_bWXb["[jY$If[Y_Wb[cf^Wi_i_i
fkjedceZ[b_d]\eh[ijh[][d[hWj_ed_dj^[Yedj[nje\_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[b_d]
È -ODELINGÈ!PPROACHESÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ2EGENERATION /+
È
-ODELINGÈ!PPROACHESÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ2EGENERATION
È
-ECHANISTICÈANDÈ'APÈ-ODELS
C[Y^Wd_ij_YehfheY[ii#eh_[dj[ZceZ[bifh[Z_Yj\eh[ijZ[l[befc[djWiWioi#
j[ce\X_ebe]_YWbfheY[ii[im_j^_dW\eh[ijijWdZ[$]$f^ejeiodj^[i_i"h[if_hWj_ed"
jhWdif_hWj_ed"WbbeYWj_ede\f^ejeiodj^[i_ifheZkYji"kfjWa[e\dkjh_[djiWdZmW#
j[h WdZ _d j^[ ie_b [$]$ Z[Yecfei_j_ed e\ b_jj[h WdZ ^kcki$ J^[i[ X_ebe]_YWb
fheY[ii[iWh[Yedjhebb[ZXoj^[f^oi_YWb[dl_hedc[dj[$]$i^WZ_d]"m[Wj^[hWdZ
ie_bYedZ_j_edi$?d][d[hWb"bWh][#iYWb[X_e][eY^[c_YWb#c[Y^Wd_ij_YceZ[bii_c#
kbWj[ h[][d[hWj_ed Xo Wiikc_d] W Y[hjW_d c_d_ckc YWhXed Yedj[dj _d j^[ ij[c
WdZb[W\\hWYj_ed[$]$(+WdZ'&]%c("h[if[Yj_l[bo"m^_Y^]_l[ij^[ijWhj_d]b[W\
Wh[W Xo if[Y_[i \eh W i_ckbWj_ed hkd i[[ J^ehdjed '//.1 F_[jiY^ WdZ >Wi[dWk#
[h(&&($
H[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi^Wl[X[[dZ[h_l[Z\hech[bWj_edij^WjZ[iYh_X[\eh[ijh[#
][d[hWj_ed"_dYbkZ_d]WcekdjWdZgkWb_joe\j^[i[[ZYhef"i[[ZZ_if[hiWb"][hc_#
dWj_edWdZfh[ZWj_ede\i[[Zi"WdZikhl_lWbWdZ]hemj^e\i[[Zb_d]iA[bbeca_
[jWb$'/.-1FkaaWbW'/.-1FkaaWbWWdZAebijhc'//($KikWbboj^[i[h[bWj_ediWh[
ceZ[b[ZijeY^Wij_YWbbo"m^_Y^Wbbemikije[lWbkWj[j^[h_iae\\W_bkh[_dWfWhj_Y#
kbWh h[][d[hWj_ed i_jkWj_ed$ IkY^ ceZ[bi [$]$ i[[Z_d] ceZ[bi ^Wl[ b[Z je j^[#
eh[j_YWb WdWboi[i j^Wj j[ij j^[ heb[ e\ \WYjehi ikY^ Wi i_j[ \[hj_b_jo" ijWdZ Z[di_jo"
i_j[fh[fWhWj_ed"m[Wj^[hYedZ_j_edi"[jY$_ddWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ed[$]$He][hiWdZ
@e^died'//.$
?d]WfWdZfWjY^ceZ[bi"[ijWXb_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed_ii_ckbWj[ZWiWije#
Y^Wij_Y fheY[ii YedijhW_d[Z Xo if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y [dl_hedc[djWb hWd][i [$]$ j[c#
f[hWjkh[ ikc" ie_b ce_ijkh[" \heiji WdZ h[][d[hWj_ed Wjjh_Xkj[i [$]$ f_ed[[h eh
i^WZ[#jeb[hWdj[$]$Fh_Y[[jWb$(&&'$?dj^[\_hij]WfehikYY[ii_edceZ[bi"h[#
][d[hWj_ed mWi dej Zh_l[d Xo j^[ jh[[i _d j^[ el[hijeho i[[ 8eja_d [j Wb$ '/-(1
I^k]Whj'/.*18eja_d'//)0d[mjh[[im[h[WZZ[Z\hecW\_n[Zb_ije\if[Y_[iXkj
YekbZ dej [nY[[Z W cWn_ckc dkcX[h e\ ij[ci f[h kd_j Wh[W WdZ j_c[ f[h_eZ$
;WY^jh[[mWi_d_j_Wb_p[ZXoW]_l[djh[[^[_]^j[$]$*$+\jeh'$)-cWdZWY[h#
jW_dc_d_ckcZX^$
:[jW_b[Z h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[bi c_c_Ya_d] \bem[h_d]" \hkYj_\_YWj_ed" i[[Z fhe#
ZkYj_edWdZZ_if[hiWb"WdZ[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ]hemj^e\i[[Zb_d]ih[gk_h[[nj[d#
i_l[ZWjW"WdWboi_iWdZfhe]hWcc_d]$<khj^[hceh["ikY^WffheWY^[i^Wl[i[bZec
X[[dki[ZX[YWki[j^[ocWobWYaWYYkhWYoZk[jejeecWdofWhWc[j[hij^WjWh[
Z_\\_YkbjjebeYWb_p[\ehW]_l[di_jkWj_ed$>em[l[h"h[Y[djWZlWdjW][i_dceZ[b_d]
h[][d[hWj_ed^Wl[_cfhel[Zj^_ifheY[Zkh[$7]eeZ[nWcfb[_ij^[ifWj_Wb_dZ_#
l_ZkWb#jh[[]WfceZ[bIEHJ?;FWYWbW[jWb$'//,$J^[h[][d[hWj_edikX#ceZ[be\
IEHJ?;fh[Z_Yjij^[dkcX[hWdZbeYWj_edie\i[[Zb_d]ifheZkY[ZXo[WY^el[h#
/, #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
ijehojh[[ijeY^Wij_YWbboWiW\kdYj_ede\jh[[i_p[WdZbeYWj_edki_d]Wd[nj[di_l[
i[je\ZWjWYebb[Yj[Z\hecdehj^#[Wij[hdKI7H_XX[di[jWb$'//*$
È
3TATISTICALÈ-ODELS
È
7HOLEÈ3TANDÈANDÈ3IZEÈ#LASSÈ-ODELS
IjWj_ij_YWbceZ[biWh[kikWbboYbWii_\_[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[XWi_Y]hemj^kd_j\eh
m^_Y^j^[fh[Z_Yj_ediWh[cWZ[Ckdhe'/-*$M^eb[ijWdZceZ[bi[$]$]hemj^
WdZo_[bZjWXb[iWdZ[gkWj_ediki[ijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiikY^WiZec_dWdj^[_]^j"
ijWdZXWiWbWh[WWdZW][jei_ckbWj[j^[ijWdZ]hemj^WdZo_[bZ$CeZ[bimeham[bb
_dcWdW][Z[l[d#W][ZijWdZim^[h[_d]hemj^WdZcehjWb_joWh[_]deh[ZehWi#
ikc[ZjeX[YedijWdjel[hWm_Z[lWh_[joe\ijWdZcWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[i$
I_p[YbWiiceZ[bi[$]$ijWdZjWXb[fhe`[Yj_ed"jhWdi_j_edcWjh_nceZ[bifh[#
Z_Yjj^[_d]hemj^"]hemj^WdZcehjWb_jo_d[WY^i_p[YbWii$?dceijYWi[i"Z_Wc[#
j[hYbWii[i^Wl[X[[dki[Z$IjWdZjWXb[fhe`[Yj_edki[iWYkhh[djZ_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_#
Xkj_edijWdZjWXb[WdZ_d]hemj^"]hemj^WdZcehjWb_jofh[Z_Yj_ediXoZ_Wc[j[h
YbWii[ijefhe`[Yjj^[\kjkh[Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ed_dkd[l[d#W][ZijWdZi"i[["\eh
[nWcfb[";a'/-*$M_j^WjhWdi_j_edcWjh_n"j^[_d]hemj^WdZkf]hemj^jhWdi_#
j_ed"Wim[bbWicehjWb_jofheXWX_b_j_[i[ij_cWj[Z\eh[WY^i_p[YbWiiWh[ki[ZjeZ[#
j[hc_d[j^[\kjkh[Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ed$?d]hemj^^WiX[[dWiikc[ZjeX[Yed#
ijWdj[$]$Aebijhc'//)ehW\kdYj_ede\ijWdZZ[di_jo0_dYh[Wi_d]ijWdZXWiWb
Wh[Wm_bbZ[Yh[Wi[_d]hemj^"WdZ_dYh[Wi_d]j^[dkcX[he\jh[[im_bb_dYh[Wi[_j
[$]$8ked]_ehde[jWb$'//+$I_p[YbWiiceZ[biWh[ki[Z\ehkd[l[d#W][ZWdZkd#
[l[d#i_p[Z\eh[iji"[if[Y_Wbbo_dj^[jhef_YiLWdYbWo'//*1F[d](&&&$
:_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_edceZ[biWh[Yeccedboki[Zjeiceej^Z_Wc[j[hYbWii#
[i0j^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ede\Z_Wc[j[hi_dWijWdZ_iZ[iYh_X[ZXoWfheXWX_b_joZ[di_jo
\kdYj_ed[$]$M[_Xkbb"@e^diedÉiI8$J^[fWhWc[j[hie\j^[\kdYj_edWh[fh[Z_Yj#
[Z\hec[Wi_boc[Wikh[ZijWdZlWh_WXb[iki_d]"\eh[nWcfb["WfWhWc[j[hh[Yel[ho
c[j^eZehej^[hfWhWc[j[hfh[Z_Yj_edWffheWY^[i$:_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_edceZ[bi
fh[Z_YjijWdZZ[l[befc[djXkjcWo]_l[kdh[b_WXb[fh[Z_Yj_edi\ehj^[dkcX[he\
icWbb[ijjh[[i_dj^[ijWdZ"_$[$_d]hemj^[$]$CWbjWceWdZAWd]Wi'//.$J^[Z_#
Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\kd[l[d#W][ZijWdZi_ijof_YWbboh[l[hi[@#i^Wf[Z"j^[\h[#
gk[dYoZ[Yh[Wi_d]m_j^_dYh[Wi[_dZ_Wc[j[h$?\j^[hWj_eX[jm[[dj^[dkcX[he\
jh[[i_dikYY[ii_l[Z_Wc[j[hYbWii[i_iWbceijYedijWdj"j^[Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ed
YWdX[Z[iYh_X[ZXoWZ[iY[dZ_d]][ec[jh_Yi[h_[iehWd[nfed[dj_WbYkhl[e\j^[
\ehc0o3a[nfÄWn"m^[h[o_ij^[dkcX[he\jh[[i_dZ_Wc[j[hYbWiin"ah[#
\b[Yjij^[eYYkhh[dY[e\h[][d[hWj_ed"WdZWZ[j[hc_d[ij^[h[bWj_l[\h[gk[dY_[ie\
ikYY[ii_l[Z_Wc[j[hYbWii[iC[o[h'/+($
È -ODELINGÈ!PPROACHESÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ2EGENERATION /-
È
)NDIVIDUAL
4REEÈ-ODELS
?dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWh[e\_dj[h[ij_d\eh[ijceZ[b_d]X[YWki[Yed#
Y[fjkWbbo j^[o Wbbem _dYehfehWj_ed e\ Wdo a_dZ e\ i_bl_YkbjkhWb jh[Wjc[dj$ IkY^
ceZ[bi i_ckbWj[ j^[ ]hemj^ WdZ cehjWb_jo e\ [WY^ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[$7]]h[]Wj_d]
j^[jh[[_d\ehcWj_ede\[WY^jh[[m_j^_dWijWdZfhel_Z[iijWdZ#b[l[b]hemj^WdZ
o_[bZ$ ?dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ceZ[bi cWo X[ Z_l_Z[Z _dje Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj WdZ Z_i#
jWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djceZ[biWYYehZ_d]jem^[j^[hehdej_d\ehcWj_ededj^[ifW#
j_WbbeYWj_edie\jh[[i_ikj_b_p[Z_dceZ[b_d]$?j^WiX[[dfhel[dj^WjifWj_WbZ_i#
jh_Xkj_ed fbWoi Wd _cfehjWdj heb[ _d h[][d[hWj_ed fheY[ii[i$ <eh [nWcfb[" ifW#
j_WbfWjj[hdih[ikbj_d]\hecj^[icWbb#iYWb[hWdZecd[iie\_dZ_l_ZkWbX_hj^iYWd
^Wl[i_]d_\_YWdj_cfWYjiedbWh][h#iYWb[Wif[Yjie\j^[\eh[ijZodWc_YiH_XX[di
[jWb$'//*$?dWZZ_j_edje_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[i_ckbWj_edceZ[bi"WdWboj_YWbWffheWY^#
[i^Wl[X[[dki[ZjeceZ[bj^[[\\[Yje\ifWj_Wb_dj[hWYj_ededX_hj^"]hemj^WdZ
Z[Wj^_d[Yebe]_YWbioij[ci[$]$8eba[hWdZFWYWbW'//-$J^[i["cW_dboj^[eh[j_#
YWbWffheWY^[i"[dWXb[kije[nfbeh[Xej^j^[WdWboj_YWdZ[Yebe]_YWbYedi[gk[dY#
[ie\j^[ifWj_WbijhkYjkh[m_j^_dWijWdZi_ckbjWd[ekibo$
?djh[[#b[l[bceZ[b_d]"h[][d[hWj_edcWoX[Yedi_Z[h[ZWjZ_\\[h[djZ[l[bef#
c[djijW][i$:k[je^_]^bolWh_WXb[ikhl_lWbWdZ]hemj^e\][hc_dWj[Zi[[Zb_d]i"
j^[be]_YWbijWhj_d]fe_dje\ceZ[b_d]mekbZX[j^[f^Wi[m^[di[[Zb_d]iWh[[i#
jWXb_i^[Z[ijWXb_i^c[djceZ[bi"i[[Zb_d]i^Wl[h[WY^[ZWY[hjW_dj^h[i^ebZi_p["
[$]$Xh[Wij^[_]^j_d]hemj^ceZ[biehoekd]jh[[i[dj[hWY[hjW_dZ_Wc[j[heh
^[_]^jYbWii_dj^[ijWdZh[Yhk_jc[djceZ[bi$<eh[nWcfb["Wi[[Zb_d]^[_]^je\
'&Yc^WiX[[dki[ZWiWj^h[i^ebZXoIY^m[_][hWdZIj[hXW'//-jeWii[ii[i#
jWXb_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_edm_j^_ddWjkhWbWdZfbWdj[Z\eh[iji$
H[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[b_d] XWi[Z ed _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ceZ[bi _dlebl[i jme cW_d
fWhji0 ' [ijWXb_i^c[dj e\ h[][d[hWj_ed WdZ ( `kl[d_b[ jh[[ cehjWb_jo WdZ
]hemj^$ :k[ je j^[ Z_\\[h[dY[i _d j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed ZWjW WlW_bWXb[ WdZ j^[ Yed#
ijhW_dji Wi ]_l[d Xo j^[ ceZ[b je X[ ki[Z" Z_\\[h[dj YedY[fji ^Wl[ X[[d Z[l[b#
ef[Z[$]$=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-1IY^m[_][hWdZIj[hXW'//-18_X[hWdZ>[h#
b_d](&&(1>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(1>odod[d[jWb$(&&($7h[][d[hWj_ed
ceZ[bYedi_ijie\i[l[hWb[gkWj_edim^_Y^fh[Z_Yjj^[dkcX[h"if[Y_[i"^[_]^jZ_i#
jh_Xkj_ed"ikhl_lWbWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^e\d[m[ijWXb_i^[Zjh[[ikdj_b]hemj^YWdX[
fh[Z_Yj[Zki_d][gkWj_edi\ehel[hijehojh[[]hemj^$Dej[j^WjWbj^ek]^ZWcW][
jei[[Zb_d][ijWXb_i^c[djWdZh[][d[hWj_ed]hemj^Zk[jeXhemi_d]"j_cX[h^Wh#
l[ij_d]"[jY$i^ekbZX[jWa[d_djeWYYekdj"h[bWj_l[bob_jjb[_d\ehcWj_ed_iWlW_bWXb[
\ehh[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]$
<eh[ijh[][d[hWj_edj[dZijeX[ifehWZ_Y"_$[$b_jjb[ehdeh[][d[hWj_ed\ehiec[
o[WhiWdZbWh][Wcekdji_dj^ei[o[Whim^[d_jZe[ieYYkh$Jeel[hYec[j^_i\[W#
jkh["Wjme#ijW][WffheWY^e\h[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]^WiX[[dWffb_[Z[$]$<[h#
]kied[jWb$'/.,1<[h]kiedWdZ9Whbied'//)1Iebeced[jWb$'//+1<[h]kied'//-1
IY^m[_][hWdZIj[hXW'//-$<_hij"j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_ededW]_l[dfbej_i
fh[Z_Yj[Zki_d]Wbe]_ij_Yh[]h[ii_edceZ[b$M^[dj^[be]_ij_Y[gkWj_ed_iWffb_[Z
_d W Z[j[hc_d_ij_Y mWo" j^[ Wl[hW][ h[][d[hWj_ed fheXWX_b_jo _d j^[ ZWjW i[j YWd
X[ ki[Z Wi j^[Èj^h[i^ebZÉ h[][d[hWj_ed fheXWX_b_jo WXel[ m^_Y^ h[][d[hWj_ed _i
fh[i[djIY^m[_][hWdZIj[hXW'//-$?dijeY^Wij_Yfh[Z_Yj_edi"jeZ[Y_Z[m^[j^[h
/. #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
h[][d[hWj_edeYYkhiehdej"Wkd_\ehcboZ_ijh_Xkj[ZhWdZecdkcX[hQ&"'S_iYec#
fWh[Z je j^[ YWbYkbWj[Z fheXWX_b_jo$ I[YedZ" _\ h[][d[hWj_ed eYYkhi" j^[ dkcX[h"
if[Y_[iWdZZ_c[di_edie\d[mjh[[iWh[fh[Z_Yj[Zki_d]Wi[je\[gkWj_edi$
J^[ZWjWki[Z_dh[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]kikWbbo^Wl[W^_[hWhY^_YWbehd[ij[Z
ijhkYjkh["[$]$j^[h[Wh[iWcfb[fbejim_j^_dh[][d[hWj_edWh[Wim^_Y^Wh[]hekf[Z
m_j^_d][e]hWf^_YWbbeYWj_edi$J^_iYWdX[jWa[d_djeWYYekdjXo\_jj_d]hWdZec
fWhWc[j[h ceZ[bi m^[h[ j^[ _dj[hY[fj" WdZ feii_Xbo Wbie j^[ Ye[\\_Y_[dji" lWho
hWdZecboWYheii^_[hWhY^_YWbb[l[bi$?\j^[ZWjW\eh\_jj_d]j^[i[je\[gkWj_ediWh[
c[Wikh[Z \hec j^[ iWc[ iWcfb[ fbeji" j^[ [gkWj_edi i^ekbZ X[ \_jj[Z i_ckbjW#
d[ekiboZk[jej^[\WYjj^Wjj^[h[i_ZkWbie\j^[[gkWj_ediWh[Yehh[bWj[Z$:k[je
j^[^_[hWhY^_YWbZWjWijhkYjkh[WdZi_ckbjWd[eki[ij_cWj_ede\i[l[hWb[gkWj_edi"
ckbj_lWh_Wj[ckbj_b[l[bceZ[b_d]_ih[Yecc[dZ[Z[$]$=ebZij[_d'//+1Id_`Z[hi
WdZ8eia[h'///$J^[ckbj_lWh_Wj[[ij_cWj_ede\i[l[hWbh[ifedi[lWh_WXb[i[$]$
j^[ dkcX[h WdZ i_p[ e\ Z_\\[h[dj jh[[ if[Y_[i c[Wikh[Z \hec j^[ iWc[ iWcfb[
fbeji mekbZ [dWXb[" \eh [nWcfb[" [ij_cWj_ed e\ j^[ Yehh[bWj_edi X[jm[[d j^[ h[#
ifedi[iWjZ_\\[h[dj^_[hWhY^_YWbb[l[biWdZYecfWh_iede\j^[[\\[Yjie\fh[Z_Y#
jehiedZ_\\[h[djh[ifedi[i$
7ceZ[b\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]j^[dkcX[he\jh[[ie\W]_l[djh[[if[Y_[iedWiWc#
fb[fbej_iWjof_YWb[nWcfb[m^[h[j^[h[ifedi[_iWYekdj"_$[$dedd[]Wj_l[WdZ
_dj[][h#lWbk[Z[$]$M_biedWdZCW]k_h['//,$<_jj_d]WdehcWbb_d[Whh[]h[ii_ed
ceZ[b_idebed][hWdWffhefh_Wj[WffheWY^kdb[iij^[c[Wde\j^[Yekdji_i^_]^"
_d m^_Y^ YWi[ j^[ dehcWb Wffhen_cWj_ed WdZ ej^[h h[bWj[Z h[]h[ii_ed c[j^eZi
cWoX[iWj_i\WYjeho[$]$CY9kbbW]^WdZD[bZ[h'/./$?dYekdjZWjWWdWboi[i"j^[
ijWhj_d]fe_dj_ije\_jWFe_iiedceZ[bki_d]Wbe]b_da\kdYj_ed"m^_Y^[dikh[i
W dedd[]Wj_l[ c[Wd$ ?d iec[ YWi[i" j^[ ZWjW#][d[hWj_d] fheY[ii_i dej Fe_iied"
_$[$j^[Yekdjie\h[][d[hWj[Zjh[[i_diWcfb[fbejiWh[dejFe_iiedZ_ijh_Xkj[Z$7
YeccedZ[l_Wj_ed\hecj^[XWi_YFe_iiedceZ[b_ij^Wjj^[YedZ_j_edWbc[WdWdZ
YedZ_j_edWb lWh_WdY[ Z_\\[h$7d [nfbWdWj_ed \eh j^[ \[Wjkh[ j^Wj j^[ lWh_WdY[ [n#
Y[[Zij^[c[Wdie#YWbb[Zel[h#Z_if[hi_ed_ij^WjdWjkhWbboh[][d[hWj[Zjh[[iWh[
Ybkij[h[Z_dj^[ijWdZ[$]$H_fb[o'/.'"m^_b[fbWdj[Zi[[Zb_d]iWh[ioij[cWj_YWb#
boZ_ijh_Xkj[Z"m^_Y^_dZ_YWj[iWdkdZ[h#Z_if[hi_ede\j^[Fe_iiedceZ[b$
7d[nWcfb[e\ki_d]ckbj_b[l[bckbj_lWh_Wj[Fe_iiedceZ[bi_dfh[Z_Yj_d]j^[
hWj[ e\ h[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dj _d kd[l[d#W][Z ijWdZi _i ]_l[d Xo ;[h_a_d#
[d[jWb$kdfkXb$$J^[ceZ[b_d]mWiYedZkYj[Zm_j^_dj^[fhe`[YjÈ?cfb[c[dj#
_d]Jh[[CeZ[biWi<eh[ijCWdW][c[djJeebiÉ$I_dY[kd[l[d#W][Z\eh[ijiWh[ifW#
j_WbboWdZijhkYjkhWbbo^[j[he][d[eki"Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[im[h[ki[Zje
WYYekdj\ehj^[Yecf[j_j_edX[jm[[djh[[i$IjWj_ij_YWb"jh[[#b[l[bceZ[bi_dYbkZ_d]
j^[ [ijWXb_i^c[dj" ikhl_lWb WdZ ]hemj^ e\ i[[Zb_d]i m[h[ YWfWXb[ e\ fh[Z_Yj_d]
^_]^bolWh_WXb[WdZi[[c_d]bokdfh[Z_YjWXb[h[][d[hWj_ed_dkd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z#
if[Y_[iijWdZi$J^[ceZ[bim[h[ki[ZjeYedijhkYjWi_ckbWj_edioij[cWffb_YW#
Xb["\eh_dijWdY["jeefj_c_pWj_ede\j^[cWdW][c[dje\kd[l[d#W][Z\eh[ijijWdZi
_d<_dd_i^YedZ_j_edi$
J^[ceZ[b_d]e\h[][d[hWj_edWdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^cWoX[i_cfb_\_[ZXo
ki_d]_d]hemj^ehh[Yhk_jc[djceZ[bi$IkY^ceZ[bih[gk_h[ZWjWh[fh[i[djWj_l[
\ehj^[Wh[We\_dj[h[ij[$]$bWh][#iYWb[\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[ijefh[Z_Yjj^[dkcX[h
WdZ if[Y_[i e\ d[m jh[[i [dj[h_d] j^[ el[hijeho Zkh_d] W ]_l[d ]hem_d] f[h_eZ
i[[B[Z[hcWdd(&&($EdY[j^[dkcX[hWdZfhefehj_ede\if[Y_[i_iademd"j^[
È -ODELINGÈ!PPROACHESÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ2EGENERATION //
h[Yhk_j[Zjh[[i^Wl[jeX[_d_j_Wb_p[ZXoZ[\_d_d]"[$]$ZX^"jh[[^[_]^jWdZ^[_]^jje
j^[b_l[YhemdXWi["iej^Wjj^[oYWd[dj[hj^[el[hijehoi_ckbWj_edioij[c$<eh[n#
Wcfb["JhWieXWh[i[jWb$(&&*fh[fWh[ZceZ[bi\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]j^[dkcX[he\d[m
F_dkiiobl[ijh_iWdZF$d_]hWjh[[i[dj[h_d]j^[\_hijZ_Wc[j[hYbWii-$+Ä'($*Yc
WdZj^[c[WdZ_Wc[j[he\_d]hemj^Wjj^[[dZe\W'&#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ$
7d_cfehjWdjYedijhW_dje\_d]hemj^ceZ[bi_ij^WjYedY[fjkWbboj^[o_]deh[
j^[\WYjj^Wj_jcWojWa[o[Whi\ehi[[Zb_d]ijeh[WY^W]_l[dj^h[i^ebZi_p["WdZ
j^WjWjj^[j_c[e\[ijWXb_i^c[djYedZ_j_edicWo^Wl[X[[dZ_\\[h[dj\hecj^ei[
e\j^[_d]hemj^f[h_eZ$?dWZZ_j_ed"j^[if[Y_[iYecfei_j_edWdZijWdZjh[Wjc[dji
j^WjcWo^Wl[_d_j_Wj[Zh[][d[hWj_edWh[dej[nfb_Y_jboWZZh[ii[Z$J^[cW_d]eWbe\
_d]hemj^ceZ[bi_ije[dikh[j^WjZkh_d]i_ckbWj_edhkdij^[_d]hemj^e\jh[[i_i
fh[Z_YjWXb[WYYehZ_d]jecWdW][c[dj"i_j[WdZijWdZYedZ_j_edi$
J^[Wffb_YWX_b_joe\jhWZ_j_edWbh[]h[ii_edj[Y^d_gk[i\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]\eh[ijh[#
][d[hWj_edmWi\ekdZjeX[b_c_j[Z"\eh[nWcfb["_dFhe]dei_i89"m^_Y^_iWdWZ#
WfjWj_ede\j^[KI<eh[ijL[][jWj_edI_ckbWjehHeX_diedWdZAkhjp'//.$Edbo
WicWbbfWhje\j^[jejWblWh_Wj_ed_dh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djYWdX[[nfbW_d[Z$
Je_c_jWj[j^[eXi[hl[ZlWh_Wj_ed"j^[kd[nfbW_d[ZlWh_Wj_edmekbZX[WZZ[Zije#
Y^Wij_YWbbojej^[fh[Z_Yj_edi_\j^[lWh_WdY[ÄYelWh_WdY[cWjh_ne\j^[ijeY^Wij_Y
Yecfed[dji_iademd$?dWZZ_j_ed"bWh][ZWjWi[jiWh[d[[Z[Zje[ij_cWj[h[b_WXb[
WdZh[fh[i[djWj_l[h[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi$J^ki"j^[^_]^Yeije\Yebb[Yj_d]Z[jW_b[Z
h[][d[hWj_edZWjWcWob_c_jj^[WlW_bWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi\_jj[ZXoh[#
]h[ii_edj[Y^d_gk[i$
È
.ONPARAMETRICÈ-ODELS
H[Y[djbo"d[mceZ[b_d]j[Y^d_gk[i^Wl[X[[dWffb_[Z_d\eh[ijceZ[b_d]"WdZ
Wbie _d h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[b_d]$ ?cfkjWj_ed c[j^eZi" [$]$ jWXkbWh _cfkjWj_ed" a#
d[Wh[ijd[_]^Xeha#DDWdZa#ceiji_c_bWhd[_]^Xeha#CIDWffheWY^[i"^Wl[
i^emdi[l[hWbfej[dj_WbWZlWdjW][iel[hjhWZ_j_edWbh[]h[ii_edj[Y^d_gk[i_d\eh#
[ijhoi_jkWj_edi[$]$Ce[khWdZIjW]['//+1>WWhW[jWb$'//-1CWbjWceWdZAWd#
]Wi '//.1 I_hed[d [j Wb$ (&&)$ <eh [nWcfb[" _cfkjWj_ed WffheWY^[i Ze dej h[#
gk_h[Z_ijh_Xkj_edWbWiikcfj_ediWdZj^[oWh[ckbj_lWh_Wj["_$[$fhel_Z[[ij_cWj[i
e\cWdolWh_WXb[iif[Y_[i"^[_]^jYbWii"[jY$Wjed[j_c[$?cfkjWj_edceZ[biWh[
ceh[[\\_Y_[dj_dki_d]b_c_j[ZZWjW"m^_Y^_ie\j[dj^[YWi[_dfh[Z_Yj_d]\eh[ijh[#
][d[hWj_ed;a[jWb$'//-1<he[i[[jWb$(&&(1>WiiWd_[jWb$(&&("(&&*$
7bb _cfkjWj_ed c[j^eZi cWa[ ki[ e\ j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed ZWjW e\ fh[l_ekibo
c[Wikh[ZeXi[hlWj_edih[\[h[dY[fbeji"m^_Y^ckijX[WlW_bWXb[Wjj^[fh[Z_Y#
j_edf^Wi[$?dj^[jWXkbWh_cfkjWj_edWffheWY^"j^[h[\[h[dY[fbejiWh[jWXkbWj[Z
ehYbWii_\_[Z"[$]$WYYehZ_d]jejh[Wjc[dj"i_j[WdZijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi1WdZj^[Wl#
[hW][h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dje\WdWffhefh_Wj[YbWii_iki[ZWij^[[ij_cWj[Z
[ijWXb_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_ededj^[jWh][jfbej>WiiWd_[jWb$(&&("(&&*$J^[
jWXkbWh_cfkjWj_edfhel_Z[iedboWl[hW][feij#^Whl[ijh[][d[hWj_ed\ehZ_\\[h[dj
YedZ_j_edi1j^[h[\eh["jec_c_Yj^[lWh_WX_b_jo_dh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj"j^[
CIDehDD_cfkjWj_edWffheWY^[ickijX[Wffb_[Z<he[i[[jWb$ (&&(1>WiiW#
d_[jWb$(&&($
'&& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
J^[a#DDWffheWY^fhel_Z[i[ijWXb_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed\ehW]_l[djWh][j
fbej Xo i[b[Yj_d] a#d[Wh[ij#d[_]^Xeh iWcfb[ fbeji \hec j^[ h[\[h[dY[ fbeji WdZ
_cfkj_d] j^[_h h[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dji \eh j^[ jWh][j fbej$ I[b[Yj_ed e\ j^[
d[Wh[ijfbeji_iXWi[ZedWi_c_bWh_joc[Wikh[j^WjYedi_Z[hij^[h[bWj_edi^_fiX[#
jm[[dj^[jmeZ_\\[h[dji[jie\ZWjW"_$[$[Wio#je#c[Wikh[jh[Wjc[dj"i_j[WdZijWdZ
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$I_c_bWh_joc[Wikh[i^Wl[X[[dXWi[ZedWXiebkj[Z_\\[h[dY[i";k#
Yb_Z[Wd eh CW^WbWdeX_i Z_ijWdY[ \kdYj_edi$ ?d j^[ CID c[j^eZ" j^[ i_c_bWh_jo
c[Wikh[_iiebl[ZWdWboj_YWbboki_d]YWded_YWbYehh[bWj_ediWdZCW^WbWdeX_iZ_i#
jWdY[$<_dWbbo"j^[m[_]^j[ZWl[hW][e\j^[h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djie\WY^ei[d
dkcX[hae\h[\[h[dY[fbeji_iki[ZWij^[[ij_cWj[Zh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj
e\j^[jWh][jfbej$;ij_cWj[i\ehh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj_cfhel[m^[dceh[
i_c_bWhd[_]^XehiWh[ki[Z<he[i[[jWb$(&&(1>WiiWd_[jWb$(&&($
7hj_\_Y_Wb d[khWb d[jmehai h[fh[i[dj W YecfkjWj_edWb c[j^eZebe]o m^_Y^ _i
ki[ZjekdYel[hj^[ijhkYjkh[e\WbWh][lWh_[joe\ZWjW[$]$7dZ[hied'//+$D[k#
hWb d[jmehai" _d fWhj_YkbWh" Wh[ Wffb_[Z je j^[ ceZ[b_d] e\ fheY[ii[i Y^WhWYj[h#
_p[ZXode_i["feehbokdZ[hijeeZ_djh_di_YijhkYjkh[WdZhWdZec\WYjehi$J^[i[
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi Wh[ kikWbbo fh[i[dj m^[d h[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dj _i fh[Z_Yj#
[Z$?d][d[hWb"d[khWbd[jmehaiWYjWidedb_d[Wh"dedfWhWc[jh_Y\kdYj_ed[ij_cW#
jehi$J^[_hX[^Wl_eh_ij^[h[ikbje\WjhW_d_d]fheY[iim^[h[jof_YWbi_jkWj_edi_d
j^[Wffb_YWj_edWh[WWh[fh[i[dj[Zjej^[d[khWbd[jmeha"m^_Y^WZWfji_jiijhkY#
jkh[WYYehZ_d]bo$:kh_d]jhW_d_d]"j^[d[khWbd[jmehai[[aijeWZ`kij_jiijhkYjkh[
_dikY^WmWoj^Wjj^[Yehh[Yj"ehik\\_Y_[djboYbei[jejWh][j"ZWjW[$]$h[][d[hW#
j_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWh[fheZkY[Z\eh[WY^_dfkj_dZ[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[i$7fheX#
b[c_djhW_d_d]_ij^WjWjeeYecfb[nd[jmehacWo\_jj^[de_i[WdZdej`kijj^[
i_]dWb"m^_Y^b[WZijeel[h\_jj_d]$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"Wd[jmehaj^Wj_idejik\\_#
Y_[djboYecfb[nYWd\W_bjeZ[j[Yjj^[i_]dWb_dWYecfb_YWj[ZZWjWi[j"m^_Y^b[WZi
jekdZ[h\_jj_d]$
>Wi[dWk[hWdZC[hab(&&'fh[Z_Yj[Zj^[dkcX[he\`kl[d_b[jh[[i§'$)c
_d ^[_]^j WdZ j^[ h[bWj_l[ f[hY[djW][ e\ _dZ_l_ZkWbi Xo jh[[ if[Y_[i jWh][j ZW#
jW _d kd[l[d#W][Z c_n[Z#if[Y_[i ijWdZi ki_d] cWn_ckc Z_Wc[j[h" dkcX[h e\
ij[ci"XWiWbWh[W"WZkccolWh_WXb[\ehWijWdZ[Z]["WdZ^kckijof[Wi_dfkj
lWh_WXb[i$ J^[o jhW_d[Z W d[khWb d[j ki_d] ckbj_ bWo[h f[hY[fjhed CBF j[Y^#
d_gk[iWdZ"WiWb[Whd_d]Wb]eh_j^c"h[i_b_[djXWYafhefW]Wj_edHfhef$Hfhef_i
WbeYWbWZWfj_l[b[Whd_d]iY^[c["m^_Y^f[h\ehciikf[hl_i[Zb[Whd_d]_dCBFki#
_d]j^[WZWfj_l[b[Whd_d]l[hi_ede\j^[CWd^Wjj[d#b[Whd_d]hkb[H_[Zc_bb[hWdZ
8hWkd'//)$J^[h[ikbjiik]][ij[Zj^Wjj^[[ij_cWj_edfheY[Zkh[_iceh[WYYkhWj[
j^Wdj^[Yedl[dj_edWbijWj_ij_YWbWffheWY^XWi[Zedh[]h[ii_edWdWboi[i$
:[Y_i_ed jh[[i \eh h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[b_d] i[[ A_dZ[hcWdd [j Wb$ (&&( Wh[
Wckbj_lWh_Wj[YbWii_\_YWj_ediY^[c[XWi[ZedWX_dWhoh[Ykhi_l[Z_ij_dYj_ed$8_#
dWhoh[\[hijej^[\WYjj^Wjj^[h[Wh[WbmWoiedbojmefeii_Xb[efj_ediWjW]_l[d
deZ["WdZh[Ykhi_l[c[Wdij^Wjj^_iZ_ij_dYj_edYWdX[Wffb_[Zh[f[Wj[Zbo$7j[WY^
deZ["Y[hjW_dZ_ij_dYj_edhkb[iWh[Z[\_d[Z[$]$ZX^ceh[j^Wdehb[iij^Wd*&Yc"
[jY$$JeZ[\_d[Wki[\kbhkb["Wbbfeii_Xb[lWh_WXb[iWh[j[ij[Z$J^[lWh_WXb[j^Wjh[#
ikbji_dj^[X[iji[fWhWj_edm_bbX[i[b[Yj[Z$J^_ifheY[Zkh[m_bbX[h[f[Wj[Z\eh
[WY^XhWdY^kdj_bdei[fWhWj_ed_ifeii_Xb[ehkdj_bb[iij^WdWY[hjW_dj^h[i^ebZ
dkcX[he\eXi[hlWj_edi\ehW]_l[dXhWdY^_i[l_Z[dj$
È $ATAÈ#OLLECTION '&'
J^[ fhWYj_YWb _cfb[c[djWj_ed e\ W Z[Y_i_ed jh[[ YWd X[ Zed[ m_j^ j^[ ie\j#
mWh[fWYaW][hfWjh[Ykhi_l[fehj_ed_d]WdZh[]h[ii_edjh[[im_j^_dj^[ijWj_i#
j_Yfhe]hWcH?^WaWWdZ=[djb[cWd'//,$J^[h[ikbj_d]Z[Y_i_edjh[[d[[Zije
X[i_cfb_\_[Zki_d]WYheii#lWb_ZWj_edfheY[Zkh[$J^_iij[f_ikikWbboh[f[Wj[Z'&
j_c[ijej[ijm^[j^[hj^[i[fWhWj_edWbed]WXhWdY^e\WZ[Y_i_edjh[[h[ikbji_d
_cfhel[c[dje\j^[Z[Y_i_edehdej$?\de_cfhel[c[dj_iZ[j[YjWXb["j^[XhWdY^
YWd X[ h[ZkY[Z L[dWXb[i WdZ H_fb[o (&&($ A_dZ[hcWdd [j Wb$ (&&( ki[Z Z[#
Y_i_edjh[[ijej[ijj^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djZkh_d]j^[bWij
+o[WhiWdZ\ekdZj^Wj^_]^el[hijehoYecf[j_j_edmWij^[a[oYh_j[h_ed\eh\W_b#
kh[_dh[][d[hWj_ed$
È
$ATAÈ#OLLECTION
8Wi_YWbboj^h[[Wbj[hdWj_l[iekhY[ie\ZWjW^Wl[X[[dki[Z\ehceZ[b_d]h[][d#
[hWj_ed0 ' Yedjhebb[Z h[][d[hWj_ed [nf[h_c[dji" ( Yebb[Yj_ed e\ h[][d[hWj_ed
ZWjWWifWhje\Whekj_d[\eh[ij_dl[djeho"WdZ)if[Y_\_Yh[][d[hWj_edikhl[oi$
È
#ONTROLLEDÈ2EGENERATIONÈ%XPERIMENTS
IkY^[nf[h_c[djiWbbem\ehYedjhebb[Z[cf_h_YWbWii[iic[dje\\WYjehi_d\bk#
[dY_d] j^[ ]hemj^ WdZ ikhl_lWb e\ jh[[ h[][d[hWj_ed [$]$ h[][d[hWj_ed c[j^eZ"
i_j[fh[fWhWj_ed"jh[[if[Y_[i"fbWdj_d]Z[di_jo"[jY$$J^[i[ijkZ_[i^[bfkijeZ[#
j[YjWdZZ[iYh_X[j^[h[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[dh[][d[hWj_edikYY[iiWdZj^[\WYjehi
W\\[Yj_d]_j$9edjhebb[Zh[][d[hWj_ed[nf[h_c[djiWh[kikWbbodej][e]hWf^_YWbbo
h[fh[i[djWj_l[$ ?d WZZ_j_ed" j^[_h j[cfehWb h[fh[i[djWj_l[d[ii_i e\j[d m[Wa" X[#
YWki[j^[m[Wj^[hYedZ_j_edij^WjW\\[Yjj^[h[][d[hWj_edh[ikbjcWolWho]h[Wjbo
_dZ_\\[h[djo[Whi$>em[l[h"j^[oWh[kikWbboZ[i_]d[ZjeYel[hWm_Z[hWd][e\[n#
f[Yj[ZYedZ_j_ediWdZj^ki^[bfki'jeZ[j[Yjj^[lWh_WXb[ij^WjZh_l[j^[ioij[c
WdZ(je\ehckbWj[ceZ[bijeX[\_jj[Zki_d]h[fh[i[djWj_l[i[jie\ZWjW$
È
2OUTINEÈ)NVENTORYÈ$ATA
H[][d[hWj_ed_d\ehcWj_ed\hechekj_d[\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[ifhel_Z[ih[fh[i[dj#
Wj_l[h[]_edWbZWjW\ehh[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]$J^[ZWjWYebb[Yj_edioij[c_iXWi[Z
ed W ioij[cWj_Y iWcfb_d] Z[i_]d m^_Y^ Wiikc[i j^Wj Wbb ]hem_d] YedZ_j_edi _d
j^[ h[]_edi Wh[ Yel[h[Z$ Hekj_d[bo YedZkYj[Z DWj_edWb <eh[ij ?dl[djeh_[i D<?
WbieWbbemf[h_eZ_YWbkfZWj_d]e\h[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi$<eh[nWcfb["j^[h[][d[h#
Wj_edceZ[be\j^[<_dd_i^\eh[ijfbWdd_d]ioij[cC;B7_iXWi[Zedj^[D<?ZW#
jW>odod[d[jWb$(&&($?dj^_iioij[c"[ijWXb_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed_ifh[Z_Yj#
[ZWjj^[jh[[b[l[biej^Wjj^[Z[di_joWdZif[Y_[iYecfei_j_ede\Wi[[Zb_d]ijWdZ
_$[$Zec_dWdj^[_]^j4'$)cWdZc[WdZ_Wc[j[h2.Ycm_bbh[i[cXb[j^ei[eX#
'&( #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
i[hl[Z_dj^[D<?ikX#ijhWjW$J^[ikX#ijhWjWWh[Z[\_d[ZXoie_bj[njkh[c_d[hWb
ehf[Wj"\[hj_b_joYbWii"h[][d[hWj_edc[j^eZdWjkhWbehWhj_\_Y_WbWdZjWh][jjh[[
if[Y_[iY\$jWXkbWh_cfkjWj_edWffheWY^$
M^[d_dl[djehoZWjWWh[Yebb[Yj[Z"cWdo\WYjehiikY^Wi[Whb_[hijWdZjh[Wj#
c[dj"j_c[i_dY[h[][d[hWj_ed"c[j^eZe\i_j[fh[fWhWj_ed"i[[Zb_d]cWj[h_Wb"eh_#
]_de\i[[Zb_d]i"[jY$Wh[Z_\\_Ykbjeh[l[d_cfeii_Xb[jeZ[j[hc_d[$J^[h[\eh[i[l#
[hWblWh_WXb[ij^WjfbWoWd_cfehjWdjheb[_d\eh[ijh[][d[hWj_edYWddejX[ki[Z
_dceZ[b_d]"m^_Y^Z[Yh[Wi[ij^[ki[\kbd[iie\j^[_dl[djehoZWjW_dh[][d[hWj_ed
ceZ[b_d]$<eh[nWcfb["_jcWoX[Z_\\_Ykbjje_Z[dj_\ofbWdj[Zjh[[i_\j^[fbWdj[Z
jh[[if[Y_[iWbieh[][d[hWj[idWjkhWbboWdZi[l[hWbo[Whi^Wl[fWii[Zi_dY[fbWdj#
_d]$?dj^WjYWi["WZkccolWh_WXb[YWdX[ki[ZjeZ[j[hc_d[fbWdjWj_ed[\\[Yji
_dceZ[b_d]$?\Z[jW_bie\j^[fh[#^Whl[ijijhkYjkh[e\j^[ijWdZWdZj^[j_c_d]e\
^Whl[ijWh[d[[Z[Z_dj^[h[][d[hWj_edceZ[b"j^[oYekbZX[h[YedijhkYj[ZWdZ
Z[j[hc_d[Z\hecijkcfi$
7dej^[h_cfehjWdj_iik[_dki_d]h[][d[hWj_edZWjW\hecWhekj_d[_dl[djeho
_ij^Wj_diec[_dl[djeh_[iY[hjW_dc_d_ckcj^h[i^ebZdkcX[hiZ[j[hc_d[ZWY#
YehZ_d]jej^[^[_]^je\j^[h[][d[hWj_edWh[ki[ZjeZ[j[hc_d[m^[j^[hehdejh[#
][d[hWj_ed_d\ehcWj_edm_bbX[Yebb[Yj[Z[$]$j^[7kijh_WdDWj_edWb<eh[ij?dl[d#
jehoÄ<8L7'//*$Fbejim^[h[deehl[hob_jjb[h[][d[hWj_edeYYkhicWoX[[n#
YbkZ[Z\hecj^[ZWjW"m^_Y^cWa[iWii[iic[dje\^emY[hjW_di_bl_YkbjkhWbcWd#
W][c[djj[Y^d_gk[iW\\[Yjh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZZ[l[befc[djZ_\\_Ykbj
eh[l[d_cfeii_Xb[$Dej[j^Wj\hecWfhWYj_YWbfe_dje\l_[m_jcWoX[_cfehjWdj
jekdZ[hijWdZm^okdZ[hY[hjW_d]hem_d]YedZ_j_edim[^Wl[deehl[hob_jjb[h[#
][d[hWj_ed$
È
2EGENERATIONÈ3URVEYS
H[][d[hWj_ed ikhl[oi ced_jeh j^[ ikYY[ii e\ \eh[ij h[][d[hWj_ed$ ?d WZZ_#
j_ed"ZWjW\hech[][d[hWj_edikhl[oiYWdX[ki[ZjeZ[l[befh[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi$
J^[i[ikhl[oi^Wl[X[[dYedZkYj[ZjeZ[j[hc_d[[ijWXb_i^c[djikYY[iiWdZj^[
gkWb_joe\h[][d[hWj_edc[j^eZiWffb_[Z_dfhWYj_Y[[$]$Hid[d[jWb$'/.+1IWa#
iW'//(1A_ddkd[d'//)1>offd[d(&&($H[][d[hWj_edikhl[oiWh[iec[j_c[i
Z[i_]d[ZjeWii[iij^[_cfWYjie\Z[[hZWcW][ehXhemi_d]edh[][d[hWj_edH[_#
cei[hWdZ=eiiem'//,1FeiY^(&&)$:k[je_dYecfWj_X_b_j_[iikY^WiZ_\\[h[dj
][e]hWf^_Yikhl[oWh[Wi"Z_\\[h[djj_c[ii_dY[h[][d[hWj_ed"h[][d[hWj_edcWj[h_#
WbWdZfhWYj_Y["WdZc[Wikh[c[dj]k_Z[b_d[i"_j^WiX[[dZ_\\_YkbjjeYecX_d[WdZ
ki[ZWjWi[ji\hecZ_\\[h[djikhl[oi$
?d<_dbWdZ"h[][d[hWj_ed_iikhl[o[Z_dfh_lWj[\eh[iji\hec)je+o[WhiW\j[hW
h[][d[hWj_l[YkjIWaiW[jWb$(&&($7i_c_bWhh[][d[hWj_edikhl[o_iWbieki[Z_d
j^[\eh[ijie\WbWh][<_dd_i^\eh[ijYecfWdo$:WjWedj^[h[][d[hWj_edWh[W"c[j^#
eZWdZh[ikbjWh[ijeh[Z_dWZWjWXWi["m^_Y^_iki[Zjefhel_Z[gkWdj_jWj_l[WdZ
gkWb_jWj_l[_d\ehcWj_ededh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ_jilWh_Wj_edWjZ_\\[h#
[dj b[l[bi [$]$ h[][d[hWj_ed o[Wh" \eh[ijho Y[dj[h" ckd_Y_fWb_jo" h[][d[hWj_ed Wh#
[W"iWcfb[fbej$J^_i_d\ehcWj_ed^[bfikije\_dZj^[X[ijh[][d[hWj_edc[j^eZi
\ehW]_l[di[je\YedZ_j_edi$7ZWjWXWi[^WiWbieX[[dki[Z\ehfh[Z_Yj_d][ijWX#
È $ATAÈ#OLLECTION '&)
b_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_edki_d]Wckbj_lWh_Wj[ckbj_b[l[bceZ[bC__dWWdZIWa#
iW"kdfkXb$$
<he[i[[jWb$(&&(WdZ>WiiWd_[jWb$(&&("(&&*^Wl[kj_b_p[ZZWjW\hech[#
][d[hWj_ed ikhl[oi je Z[l[bef _cfkjWj_ed ceZ[bi$ H[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dj
mWi ikhl[o[Z \hec ijWdZi j^Wj m[h[ i[b[Yj[Z je Yel[h W m_Z[ hWd][ e\ el[hije#
hoZ[di_j_[i"j_c[i_dY[Ykjj_d]"i_j[fh[fWhWj_edc[j^eZi"ibef[i"Wif[YjiWdZ[b#
[lWj_edi$M_j^_dj^[ikhl[o[ZijWdZi"d[ij[Zfbejim[h[c[Wikh[Zki_d]ioij[c#
Wj_YiWcfb_d]$<eh[WY^fbej"i_bl_YkbjkhWb[l[djiWdZi_j[WdZijWdZlWh_WXb[im[h[
_Z[dj_\_[Z WdZ h[YehZ[Z$ :[if_j[ _ji i_cfb[ ijhkYjkh[" jWXkbWh _cfkjWj_ed cWa[i
]eeZki[e\j^[b_c_j[ZZWjWWlW_bWXb[$J^[ki[\kbd[iie\_cfkjWj_edj[Y^d_gk[i
Z[f[dZijeW]h[Wj[nj[djedj^[ZWjWki[Z\ehj^[WdWboi_i$>em[l[h"j^[ceZ[bi
YWd[Wi_boX[kfZWj[ZWiceh[ZWjWX[Yec[WlW_bWXb[$
?dh[][d[hWj_edikhl[oi"_j_ih[Yecc[dZ[Zj^Wjj^[iWcfb[kd_ji^ekbZX[W
fbej_dij[WZe\WijWdZ1WdZi[l[hWbfbejiWh[c[Wikh[Z\hecWijWdZ$J^_iWbbemi
h[][d[hWj_edfh[Z_Yj_edijeX[i[di_j_l[jem_j^_d#ijWdZlWh_Wj_edi$;if[Y_Wbbo_d
kd[l[d#W][ZijWdZi"Y^Wd][i_del[hijehoZ[di_jom_j^_dj^[ijWdZYekbZX[Yed#
i_Z[h[ZXofh[Z_Yj_d]h[][d[hWj_ededi[l[hWbfbeji$J^[ijWdZ [Z][WbieW\\[Yji
j^[_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^jWdZcWoh[ZkY[eh[l[dYecf[diWj[\ehel[hijehob_]^jYec#
f[j_j_ed \eh `kl[d_b[i$7YYehZ_d] je <b[cc_d] '/,(" 9Wd^Wc [j Wb$ '//& WdZ
=ebi[h WdZ >Wi[dWk[h '//-" j^[ [Z][ [\\[Yj Z[Yh[Wi[i fhefehj_edWbbo m_j^ _d#
Yh[Wi_d]Z_ijWdY[\hecj^[ijWdZ[Z][WdZ_id[]b_]_Xb[m^[dj^[Z_ijWdY[h[WY^#
[ijm_Y[j^[Zec_dWdj^[_]^jWXekj,&je-&c$
M^[dWh[][d[hWj_edikhl[o_iZ[i_]d[ZWdZj^[^_[hWhY^_YWbijhkYjkh[e\j^[
h[][d[hWj_edZWjW_iceZ[b[Z"j^[WbbeYWj_ede\fbejiWced]ijWdZi"j^[WbbeYWj_ed
e\ijWdZiWced]][e]hWf^_YWbehcWdW][c[djWh[Wi"[jY$m_bbW\\[Yjj^[fh[Y_i_ed
e\ j^[ h[]h[ii_ed [ij_cWj[i e\ ceZ[bi [$]$ =ebZij[_d '//+1 Id_`Z[hi WdZ 8eia[h
'///$?dWZZ_j_ed"j^[h[Wh[][d[hWbboZ_\\[h[dj_WbYeijiWiieY_Wj[Zm_j^iWcfb_d]
ceh[fbejim_j^_dWd[n_ij_d]ijWdZWieffei[Zjei[b[Yj_d]\khj^[hfbeji_dWd[m
ijWdZi[["[$]$"Id_`Z[hiWdZ8eia[h'///$<_dZ_d]j^[efj_cWbijkZoZ[i_]dX[#
Yec[iceh[Z_\\_Ykbjm^[dh[][d[hWj_ed_ic[Wikh[Zel[hi[l[hWbo[Whiehj^[h[
Wh[h[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[dji_$[$hWdZecYheii#YbWii_\_[Z[\\[Yji$
KdX_Wi[ZiWcfb_d]e\h[][d[hWj_ed_i_cfehjWdj$Ikhl[oim_bbfheZkY[X_Wi[Z
h[ikbji _\ \W_b[Z h[][d[hWj_ed Wjj[cfji Wh[ Z_iYWhZ[Z \hec j^[ iWcfb[ X[YWki[
j^[h[_ideh[][d[hWj_edjec[Wikh[eh"Wbj[hdWj_l[bo"_\iWcfb_d]_iYedY[djhWj[Z
jeXehZ[hb_d[YWi[i_dm^_Y^j^[Z_\\[h[dj_Wj_edX[jm[[dikYY[iiYWj[]eh_[i_ij^[
cW_deX`[Yj_l[e\j^[ikhl[o$7dej^[h[nWcfb[mekbZX[_\edboWY[hjW_dhWd][
e\h[][d[hWj_edZ[di_jo_iYedi_Z[h[Z"m^_Y^cWob[WZjec_i_dj[hfh[jWj_ediYed#
Y[hd_d]j^[h[][d[hWj_edi_jkWj_edm_j^_dijWdZi$IkY^WZWjWYebb[Yj_edfheY[Zkh[
cWoX[WZ[gkWj[\eh[l[d#W][ZijWdZiXkjZe[idejh[fh[i[djj^[^[j[he][d[eki
h[][d[hWj_edi_jkWj_ed_dkd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z#if[Y_[iijWdZi$
H[][d[hWj_edikhl[oZWjWcWoWbieX[X_Wi[ZZk[jec_ii_d]eXi[hlWj_edi\eh
W ]_l[d lWh_WXb[ e\ _dj[h[ij$ <eh [nWcfb[" i_j[ fh[fWhWj_ed _i kikWbbo ec_jj[Z _\
[dek]^ WZlWdY[Z h[][d[hWj_ed _i WlW_bWXb[$ 9edi[gk[djbo" h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[bi
j[dZjeel[hfh[Z_Yjj^[h[][d[hWj_edikYY[iiedkdjh[Wj[Zi_j[i_\WZlWdY[Zh[][d#
[hWj_ed_ideji[fWhWj[Z\hech[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^[ZW\j[h^Whl[ij_d]$Ed[Wi#
ikcfj_ed_ie\j[dj^Wjj^[[\\[Yjie\i[[ZYhefi"^[hX_leh[iWdZm[Wj^[hYedZ_j_edi
Wh[Yel[h[ZhWdZecbo_dj^[ZWjW$8[jm[[d#o[WhlWh_Wj_ed_dh[][d[hWj_edikYY[ii
'&* #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
_iZ_\\_Ykbjeh[l[d_cfeii_Xb[jefh[Z_Yj"Xkj_jYekbZX[_dYbkZ[Z_dceZ[b_d]WdZ
i_ckbWj_ediki_d]hWdZecYecfed[dji$<eh[nWcfb["kd[nfbW_d[ZX[jm[[d#o[Wh
lWh_Wj_ed_dh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj"m^_Y^_iYWki[ZfWhjboXoX[jm[[d#o[Wh
lWh_Wj_ed_dm[Wj^[hYedZ_j_edi"YWdX[jWa[d_djeWYYekdjXoWZZ_d]hWdZecX[#
jm[[d#o[WhYecfed[djijej^[ceZ[b$
H[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj_ikikWbboZ[iYh_X[ZXoj^[dkcX[he\jh[[iWdZ
i_p[Z_ijh_Xkj_ede\Z_\\[h[djjh[[if[Y_[i$?\fbWdj[Zjh[[iYWdX[_Z[dj_\_[Z_dj^[
ZWjWYebb[Yj_ed"i[fWhWj[ceZ[biYekbZX[\_jj[Z\ehfbWdj[ZWdZdWjkhWbboh[][d[h#
Wj[Zjh[[i$?diec[YWi[i"ie#YWbb[ZYhef#jh[[iehX[ijjh[[iWh[Wii[ii[Z[$]$<[h#
]kied[jWb$'/.,1>WiiWd_[jWb$(&&*$9hef#jh[[iWh[i[b[Yj[ZikX`[Yj_l[boWYYehZ#
_d]jej^[jh[[if[Y_[i"i_p[Z_ijh_Xkj_ed"beYWj_edWdZl_]ehe\i[[Zb_d]i$IkX`[Yj_l[
i[b[Yj_ede\Yhef#jh[[icWoX[WfheXb[c_\fhef[h_dijhkYj_edi\ehi[b[Yj_edWh[
dej]_l[d$?d<_dd_i^h[][d[hWj_edikhl[oi"j^[cW_d[cf^Wi_i_ifkjed^Wl_d]W
ik\\_Y_[djdkcX[he\Yhef#jh[[i$?dfbWdj[ZijWdZi"Yhef#jh[[iWh[^[Wbj^ofbWdj[Z
i[[Zb_d]iehdWjkhWbboh[][d[hWj[Zi[[Zb_d]ij^Wjikffb[c[dj_hh[]kbWhboifWY[Z
h[][d[hWj_edi e\ lWho_d] Z[di_jo$ Je Z[j[hc_d[ j^[ d[[Z \eh WdZ j_c_d] e\ fh[#
Yecc[hY_Wbj^_dd_d]"Z[Y_Zkekijh[[if[Y_[ie\bem[Yedec_YlWbk[Wh[c[Wikh[Z
Xoj^[dkcX[he\ij[ciWdZj^[Zec_dWdj^[_]^j$
:k[jeY^Wd][i_dj[Y^debe]oWdZi_bl_YkbjkhWbfhWYj_Y[i"h[][d[hWj_edceZ#
[bid[[ZjeX[kfZWj[Zki_d]j^[bWj[ijWlW_bWXb[ZWjWi[j$9khh[djceZ[bicWo\W_b
jefh[Z_Yjj^[h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj_\d[m^Whl[ij_d]c[j^eZieh_cfhel[Z
fbWdj_d]cWj[h_WbiWh[ki[Z$?dWZZ_j_ed"bed]#j[hcY^Wd][i_dm[Wj^[hYedZ_j_edi
eh\eh[ij#ZWcW]_d]W][dji[$]$_dYh[Wi[_dj^[cWccWbfefkbWj_edm_bbh[gk_h[
_cfhel[c[dji_dh[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi$Iec[j_c[ij^[h[_ided[[Zeh[l[dfei#
i_X_b_jojeYebb[Yjd[mZWjWWdZh[\_jj^[h[][d[hWj_edceZ[biW]W_d"Xkj_jYWdX[
YWb_XhWj[Z\ehd[m[dl_hedc[djWbYedZ_j_ediehWd[m][e]hWf^_YWbWh[Wki_d]W
b_c_j[ZZWjWi[j$
È
$ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSIONS
H[][d[hWj_edceZ[biWh[d[[Z[Z_dXej^ijWdZ#WdZ\eh[ij#b[l[bfbWdd_d]$?d
i_bl_YkbjkhWbfbWdd_d]"h[][d[hWj_ed_dl[djeh_[iWdZceZ[b_d]Wh[d[[Z[Z\eh[lWb#
kWj_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[ijWdZcWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[iehfeii_X_b_j_[ijefhecej[h[][d#
[hWj_edWdZh[][d[hWj_edZ[l[befc[dj$9ecfkj[h#XWi[Zioij[ciWh[ki[\kbjeebi0
W\eh[ijemd[hm^emWdjijec_d_c_p[j^[h_iae\\W_bkh[_d\eh[ijh[][d[hWj_edi[#
b[YjiWcWdW][c[djc[j^eZj^Wj]_l[ij^[^_]^[ijfheXWX_b_joe\ik\\_Y_[djh[][d#
[hWj_ed [$]$ IWWh[dcWW '//&1 FkaaWbW WdZ Aebijhc '//(1 He][hi WdZ @e^died
'//.1IWaiW[jWb$(&&($?dioij[ci\eh\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfbWdd_d]"i_ckbWj[Zh[#
celWbi\hecXej^kd[l[d#WdZ[l[d#W][ZijWdZiWh[e\j[dXWi[Zedh[b_WXb[fh[#
Z_Yj_edie\h[][d[hWj_ed$
?d[l[d#W][Z\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj"[ijWXb_i^c[dje\h[][d[hWj_edWdZ`kl[d_b[
]hemj^ceZ[bib_da[Zm_j^j^[]hemj^ceZ[bie\el[hijehojh[[iWh[m_Z[boki[Z
jefh[Z_Yjehi_ckbWj[ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj[$]$<[h]kied[jWb$'/.,1<[h]kiedWdZ
9Whbied'//)1<[h]kied'//-1Cedi[hkZ[jWb$'//-1>odod[d[jWb$(&&($H[][d#
[hWj_edceZ[bi_d_j_Wj[j^[ijWdZZ[l[befc[djW\j[hh[][d[hWj_edYkjj_d]i$CeZ#
È $ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSIONS '&+
[biWh[d[[Z[Z\ehXej^Whj_\_Y_Wbi[[Zb_d]iWdZdWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ed"m^_Y^i^ekbZ
^Wl[c_n[ZijWdZie\ik\\_Y_[djZ[di_jo$BWj[hed"_d]hemj^ceZ[biWh[ki[Zjefh[#
Z_Yjj^[WZZ_j_edWbh[][d[hWj_ede\cW_dboi^WZ[#jeb[hWdjjh[[if[Y_[i$?di_ckbW#
j_edi"h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djm_bb\ehcj^[\kjkh[\eh[ijiWdZj^[h[\eh[]h[Wj#
boW\\[Yjibed]#j[hcfh[Z_Yj_edie\\eh[ij]hemj^WdZo_[bZ$
M_j^ kd[l[d#W][Z \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj" ik\\_Y_[dj dWjkhWb h[][d[hWj_ed _i [i#
i[dj_Wb je ikijW_d j^[ kd[l[d#W][Z ijhkYjkh[ e\ \eh[ij ijWdZi$ Efj_cWb i[b[Yj_ed
^Whl[iji cW_djW_d WdZ [d^WdY[ j^[ h[fheZkYj_ed fej[dj_Wb e\ ijWdZi" j^[ l_jWb_#
joe\i[[Zb_d]iWdZWbbi_p[ie\jh[[i"j^[Z[i_h[ZYecfei_j_ede\jh[[if[Y_[iWdZ
ijWdZijhkYjkh[_dj[hcie\i_p[WdZifWj_WblWh_Wj_ed$Ie\Wh"_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[i_c#
kbWjehi"ikY^Wij^[Fhe]dei_iceZ[b>W_]^jWdZCedi[hkZ'//&"j^Wj_dYbkZ[W
h[][d[hWj_edceZ[bWdZ[dWXb[efj_c_pWj_ede\kd[l[d#W][Z\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj
Wh[iYWhY[$
J^[h[ Wh[ i[l[hWb WffheWY^[i je h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[b_d]$ D[_j^[h W i_d]b[
iekhY[e\ZWjWdehed[i_d]b[ceZ[b_d]WffheWY^m_bbYel[hWbbfkhfei[i$?d][d#
[hWb"ijWj_ij_YWbWdZdedfWhWc[jh_YceZ[biWh[^[Wl_boZ[f[dZ[djedZWjWWdZj^ki
bWYa][d[hWb_jo$FheY[ii#XWi[ZceZ[biZ[iYh_X[j^[X[^Wl_ehe\j^[\eh[ij[Yeioi#
j[c_dWceh[h[Wb_ij_YWdZ][d[hWbmWo"Xkjj^[ocWobWYaWYYkhWYo_\j^[oWh[Z[#
h_l[Z\hec][d[hWb_p[ZZWjW$Kd\ehjkdWj[bo"j^[fheY[ii#XWi[ZWffheWY^^Widej
X[[dm_Z[boki[ZjeZ[l[befh[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi$
J^[Wffhefh_Wj[ceZ[b_d]WffheWY^i^ekbZX[i[b[Yj[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[ki[
e\ j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[b$ 8h_[\bo" _j ckij X[ feii_Xb[ je kfZWj[ j^[ _dfkj fW#
hWc[j[hiel[hj_c[je[dikh[WYedj_dkekii_ckbWj_edhkdm_j^_dWijWdZ]hemj^
ceZ[$Dej[j^WjZWjWYebb[Yj_ed\eh\eh[ijh[][d[hWj_ed_ii[bZecZ[i_]d[Z\ehfh[#
fWh_d]h[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi$?\deh[fh[i[djWj_l[ZWjW\ehijWj_ij_YWbh[][d[hWj_ed
ceZ[b_d]Wh[WlW_bWXb["dedfWhWc[jh_Yc[j^eZiikY^Wi_cfkjWj_edceZ[bifhe#
l_Z[Wfhec_i_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[$>em[l[h"j^[h[Wh[iec[kdiebl[ZfheXb[cih[bWj[Z
je_cfkjWj_edc[j^eZi$8[YWki[[njh[c[h[][d[hWj_edi_jkWj_ediWh[e\j[ddej
_dYbkZ[Z_dh[\[h[dY[fbeji"_cfkj[Zh[][d[hWj_edfh[Z_Yj_edicWoX[X_Wi[Zje#
mWhZij^[Wl[hW][h[][d[hWj_edi_jkWj_ed_\[njh[c[[l[djieYYkh$?dWZZ_j_ed"\eh
_cfhel[ZceZ[b_d]h[ikbji"j^[Y^e_Y[e\d[_]^XehiWdZj^[i[b[Yj_ede\j^[X[ij
_cfkjWj_edc[j^eZ\ehW]_l[di_jkWj_edYekbZX[Yedi_Z[h[Z$
D[_j^[hijWj_ij_YWbdehdedfWhWc[jh_YceZ[biYWd]_l[Yehh[Yjfh[Z_Yj_edi_\
\eh[ijcWdW][c[djehYb_cWj[YedZ_j_edih[fh[i[dj[ZXoj^[ZWjWZ_\\[h\hec[n#
f[Yj[Z \kjkh[ iY[dWh_ei$ J^_i ik]][iji j^Wj je eXjW_d h[][d[hWj_ed fh[Z_Yj_edi
XWi[Z ed Y^Wd]_d] ]hem_d] YedZ_j_edi m[ d[[Z W ceh[ fheY[ii#eh_[dj[Z Wf#
fheWY^_dh[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]$9khh[djbo"cWdofh[Z_Yjehi[$]$m[Wj^[hYedZ_#
j_edi"ie_bfhef[hj_[i"ifWj_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\jh[[ij^WjmekbZfhel_Z[lWbkWXb[_d#
\ehcWj_ed\ehWii[ii_d]h[][d[hWj_edWh[Z_\\_YkbjjeeXjW_d"WdZj^kij^[Wffb_YW#
X_b_joe\c[Y^Wd_ij_Y"fheY[ii#eh_[dj[Zh[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi_ib_c_j[Z$
?d \kjkh[" m[ YWd [nf[Yj c[Wikh[c[dj e\ jh[[ fei_j_edi" ^[_]^ji" Yhemd Z_#
c[di_ediWdZZ[di_joki_d]W_hXehd[h[cej[i[di_d]$J^_im_bb]_l[ceh[_d\eh#
cWj_eded\eh[ijY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWdZ"Yedi[gk[djbo"[dWXb[ceh[WYYkhWj[WdZZ[#
jW_b[ZceZ[b_d]e\h[][d[hWj_ed$>em[l[h"j^[bWh][lWh_Wj_ed_die_bWdZi_j[fhef#
[hj_[iWim[bbWij^[j[cfehWblWh_Wj_ed_dj^[m[Wj^[hYedZ_j_ediWh[ij_bbWdkd#
iebl[ZfheXb[c_dh[][d[hWj_edceZ[b_d]$?dYehfehWj_ede\[b[c[djij^WjWbbem
b_da_d] e\ c[Y^Wd_ij_Y WdZ fheY[ii#eh_[dj[Z _Z[Wi m_j^ ijWj_ij_YWb ceZ[bi ik]#
'&, #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]<eh[ijH[][d[hWj_ed
][iji W feii_X_b_jo je [d^WdY[ ekh kdZ[hijWdZ_d] e\ h[][d[hWj_ed fheY[ii[i" Wi
j^[i[fheY[ii[icWoX[W\\[Yj[ZX[oedZj^[YWb_XhWj_edYedZ_j_edi"ikY^WiY^Wd]#
_d]\kjkh[\eh[ijcWdW][c[djWdZYb_cWj_Y]hem_d]YedZ_j_edi[$]$Ca[b[jWb$
(&&&1F[d](&&&$
2EFERENCES
!NDERSONÈ*!È È!NÈINTRODUCTIONÈTOÈNEURALÈNETWORKSÈ-)4È0RESSÈ#AMBRIDGEÈ-ASSACHUSETTS
"IBERÈ0È(ERLINGÈ(È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDERÈ6ERJàNUNGSDYNAMIKÈALSÈ"ESTANDTEILÈVONÈEINZELBAU
MORIENTIERTENÈ 7ALDWACHSTUMSSIMULATORENÈ 3EKTONÈ %RTRAGSKUNDEÈ $6&&È 3CHWARZENBACHÈ
PPÈn
"OLKERÈ"È0ACALAÈ37È È5SINGÈMOMENTÈEQUATIONSÈTOÈUNDERSTANDÈSTOCHASTICALLYÈDRIVENÈSPATIALÈ
PATTERNÈFORMATIONÈINÈECOLOGICALÈSYSTEMSÈ4HEORÈ0OPULÈ"IOLÈn
"OTKINÈ$"È È&ORESTÈDYNAMICSÈANÈECOLOGICALÈMODELÈ/XFORDÈ5NIVERSITYÈ0RESSÈ/XFORD
"OTKINÈ$"È*ANAKÈ*&È7ALLISÈ*2È È3OMEÈECOLOGICALÈCONSEQUENCESÈOFÈAÈCOMPUTERÈMODELÈOFÈ
FORESTÈGROWTHÈ*È%COLÈn
"UONGIORNOÈ *È 0EYRONÈ *
,È (OULLIERÈ &È "RUCIAMACCHIEÈ -È È 'ROWTHÈ ANDÈ MANAGEMENTÈ OFÈ
MIXED
SPECIESÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTSÈINÈTHEÈ&RENCHÈ*URAÈIMPLICATIONSÈFORÈECONOMICÈRETURNSÈ
ANDÈTREEÈDIVERSITYÈ&ORÈ3CIÈ n
#ANHAMÈ#$È0LATTÈ7*È2UNKLEÈ*2È3PIESÈ4!È7HITEÈ03È È,IGHTÈREGIMESÈBENEATHÈCLOSEDÈCANO
PIESÈANDÈTREE
FALLÈGAPSÈINÈTEMPERATEÈANDÈTROPICALÈFORESTSÈ#ANÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
#HAZDONÈ 2,È È 3UNFLECKSÈ ANDÈ THEIRÈ IMPORTANCEÈ TOÈ FORESTÈ UNDERSTORYÈ PLANTSÈ )NÈ "EGONÈ -È
&ITTERÈ!(È&ORDÈ%$È-ACFADYENÈ!ÈEDS È!DVANCESÈINÈECOLOGICALÈRESEARCHÈVOLÈÈ!CADEMICÈ
0RESSÈ,ONDONÈPPÈn
%KÈ!2È È.ONLINEARÈMODELSÈFORÈSTANDÈTABLEÈPROJECTIONÈINÈNORTHERNÈHARDWOODÈSTANDSÈ#ANÈ*È
&ORÈ2ESÈn
%KÈ!2È2OBINSONÈ!0È2ADTKEÈ0*È7ALTERSÈ$+È È$EVELOPMENTÈANDÈTESTINGÈOFÈREGENERATIONÈ
IMPUTATIONÈMODELSÈFORÈFORESTSÈINÈ-INNESOTAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
&"6!È È )NSTRUKTIONENÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ &ELDARBEITÈ DERÈ «STERREICHISCHENÈ &ORSTINVENTURÈ &ORSTLICHEÈ
"UNDESVERSUCHSANSTALTÈ7IEN
&ERGUSONÈ$%È È2EGENERATIONÈMODELSÈFORÈ&63ÈVARIANTSÈ)NÈ4ECKÈ2È-OEURÈ-È!DAMSÈ*ÈEDS È
0ROCÈ&ORESTÈ6EGETATIONÈ3IMULATORÈ#ONFÈ&ORTÈ#OLLINSÈ#OLORADOÈnÈ&EBÈ'ENÈ4ECHÈ2EPÈ).4
'42
È53$!È&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈ/GDENÈ5TAHÈPPÈn
&ERGUSONÈ $%È #ARLSONÈ #%È È 0REDICTINGÈ REGENERATIONÈ ESTABLISHMENTÈ WITHÈ THEÈ 0ROGNOSISÈ
MODELÈ2ESÈ0APÈ).4
È53$!È&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈ/GDENÈ5TAH
&ERGUSONÈ$%È3TAGEÈ!2È"OYDÈ2*È È0REDICTINGÈREGENERATIONÈINÈTHEÈGRANDÈFIRnCEDARnHEMLOCKÈ
ECOSYSTEMÈOFÈTHEÈNORTHERNÈ2OCKYÈ-OUNTAINSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈ-ONOGRÈ
&LEMMINGÈ 'È È 3TRAHLUNGÈ UNDÈ 7INDÈ ANÈ "ESTANDESRËNDERNÈ !RCHÈ &ORSTWESENÈ n
&ROESEÈ+È,E-AYÈ6È-ARSHALLÈ0,È:UMRAWIÈ!
!È È2EGENERATIONÈIMPUTATIONÈMODELSÈFORÈ0ROG
NOSIS"#È)$&DMÈSUBZONEÈVARIANTÈ)NVERMEREÈ&ORESTÈ$ISTRICTÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ
$EPARTMENTÈ 5NIVERSITYÈ OFÈ "RITISHÈ #OLUMBIAÈ HTTPWWWFORESTRYUBCCAPROGNOSISDOCU
MENTSIMPUTE?INVERMEREPDFÈCITEDÈÈ*ANÈ
'OLDSTEINÈ(È È-ULTILEVELÈSTATISTICALÈMODELSÈNDÈEDNÈ!RNOLDÈ,ONDON
'OLSERÈ-È(ASENAUERÈ(È È0REDICTINGÈJUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈGROWTHÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈ
SPECIESÈSTANDSÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
2EFERENCES '&-
(ARVESTINGÈ2ULESÈANDÈ-ODULESÈÈ
FORÈ0REDICTINGÈ#OMMERCIALÈ4IMBERÈ
!SSORTMENTS
>kX[hjIj[hXW'"Ied`WLeif[hd_a("?d]h_ZIZ[hX[h]^)"
J^ecWiB[Z[hcWdd*
!BSTRACTÈ)NDIVIDUALÈTREE
GROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈTHATÈAREÈTOÈBEÈUSEDÈTOÈSUPPORTÈDECISIONSÈINÈFOR
ESTÈMANAGEMENTÈMUSTÈBEÈABLEÈTOÈPROVIDEÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈFORECASTSÈFORÈDIFFERENTÈSTANDÈTREAT
MENTSÈANDÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈSCENARIOSÈASÈWELLÈASÈGIVINGÈRESULTSÈINÈTERMSÈOFÈNOTÈONLYÈCUBICÈ
METRESÈORÈBIOMASSÈBUTÈALSOÈCOMMERCIALÈASSORTMENTSÈINCLUDINGÈMEASURESÈOFÈWOODÈQUALITYÈ
)NÈTHEÈCONTEXTÈOFÈTHEÈ)4-È%5ÈPROJECTÈSEVERALÈKNOWNÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈWEREÈSUPPLEMENTEDÈ
BYÈ INCORPORATINGÈ ADDITIONALÈ MODULESÈ TOÈ EXPRESSÈ AÈ VARIETYÈ OFÈ THINNINGÈ ANDÈ HARVESTINGÈ
ALGORITHMSÈ4HISÈALLOWSÈSTUDYINGÈTHEÈRESULTSÈPERTAININGÈTOÈDIFFERENTÈMANAGEMENTÈREGIMESÈ
4HEIRÈAPPLICABILITYÈHASÈBEENÈCONSIDEREDÈINÈTHEIRÈDEPENDENCEÈONÈTHEÈCONCEPTSÈOFÈTHEÈSPE
CIFICÈGROWTHÈSIMULATIONÈMODELSÈWITHINÈWHICHÈTHEYÈWEREÈTOÈBEÈIMPLEMENTEDÈ#OMMERCIALÈ
ASSORTMENTSÈASÈLONGÈASÈTHEYÈONLYÈRELATEÈTOÈLOGÈDIMENSIONSÈANDÈLOGÈPROPERTIESÈWHICHÈCANÈ
BEÈESTIMATEDÈUSINGÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈBREAST
HEIGHTÈDIAMETERÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈANDÈCROWNÈRATIO È
AREÈ EASILYÈ IMPLEMENTEDÈ THROUGHÈ THEÈ APPLICATIONÈ OFÈ TAPERÈ CURVESÈ ORÈ THEÈ COMMONLYÈ USEDÈ
ASSORTMENTÈ TABLESÈ )FÈ OTHERÈ QUALITATIVEÈ STEMÈ MEASURESÈ AREÈ NEEDEDÈ TOÈ PREDICTÈ LOGÈ QUALITYÈ
THEÈRELATIONSHIPSÈBETWEENÈTHEÈLOGÈQUALITYÈDISTRIBUTIONÈANDÈTHEÈSTEMÈQUALITYÈASSESSMENTÈAREÈ
STRONGÈENOUGHÈTOÈENCOURAGEÈTHEÈUSEÈOFÈMODULESÈTOÈINCORPORATEÈSTEMÈQUALITYÈDISTRIBUTIONSÈ
INTOÈ THEÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATIONÈ MODELSÈ (OWEVERÈ THESEÈ RELATIONSHIPSÈ ANDÈ CLASSIFICATIONSÈ AREÈ
VERYÈDIFFERENTÈINÈTHEÈDIFFERENTÈCOUNTRIESÈREGIONSÈANDÈFORESTÈENTERPRISESÈ4HEREFOREÈAÈNUMBERÈ
OFÈDIFFERENTÈLOGISTICÈMODELSÈHAVEÈBEENÈPRESENTEDÈTOÈPREDICTÈSTEMÈQUALITYÈ&URTHERMOREÈITÈISÈ
DEEMEDÈNECESSARYÈANDÈITÈISÈRECOMMENDEDÈTHATÈCONCRETEÈRELATIONSHIPSÈBETWEENÈSTEMÈQUALI
TIESÈANDÈLOGÈQUALITIESÈAREÈDEVELOPEDÈINDIVIDUALLYÈATÈAÈFORESTÈENTERPRISEÈLEVEL
' [#cW_b0^kX[hj$ij[hXW6Xeak$WY$Wj
(") :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i"?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"8EAKKd_l[h#
i_joe\DWjkhWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW"F[j[h@ehZWdIjhW[.("''/&L_#
[ddW"7kijh_W
* :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ij=hemj^WdZI_bl_Ykbjkh["<[Z[hWbH[i[WhY^WdZJhW_d_d]9[djh[\eh<eh#
[iji"DWjkhWb>WpWhZiWdZBWdZiYWf[8<M"I[Ya[dZeh\\#=kZ[dj#M[]."'')'L_[ddW"7ki#
jh_W
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
''( #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
È
)NTRODUCTION
?\\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biWh[jeikffehjZ[Y_i_edi_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj"j^[o
ckij'cWa[feii_Xb[\eh[ij]hemj^\eh[YWijikdZ[hZ_\\[h[djijWdZjh[Wjc[dji
WdZ\eh[ijcWdW][c[djiY[dWh_ei1WdZ(fhel_Z[h[ikbji_dj[hcie\dejedboYk#
X_Yc[jh[iehX_ecWii"XkjWbieYecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[dji"_dYbkZ_d]fh[Z_Yj_edie\
meeZgkWb_jo$
Em_d] je j^[ d[[Z je i[b[Yj \hec Wced] lWh_eki ceZ[bb_d] ijhWj[]_[i [$]$
cWa_d] fh[Z_Yj_edi \eh ijWdZi" bWh][h \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj kd_ji eh m^eb[ \eh#
[ij [dj[hfh_i[i" ki_d] Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj eh Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dj ceZ[bi m_j^
eh m_j^ekj _dfkj ZWjW ed ij[c gkWb_jo Wii[iic[dj" Z_\\[h[dj mWoi e\ Z[l[bef#
_d]ceZkb[ije_cfb[c[djZ_\\[h[djijWdZjh[Wjc[djiWdZ\ehcWa_d]fh[Z_Yj_edi
WXekjYecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[djickijX[Y^ei[d$
J^[eX`[Yj_l[e\j^_iY^Wfj[h_ijeZ[iYh_X[j^[c[WdiWdZWb]eh_j^cije_c#
fb[c[dj0
v Z_\\[h[djijWdZjh[Wjc[djiWdZZ_\\[h[dj\eh[ijcWdW][c[djiY[dWh_ei1
v ceZkb[i\ehYecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[djfh[Z_Yj_ed1WdZ
v c[j^eZie\\eh[YWij_d]ij[cWdZmeeZgkWb_jo$
?dWZZ_j_ed_jm_bbik]][ij_dm^_Y^jof[ie\]hemj^i_ckbWjeh[WY^e\j^[Wb#
]eh_j^ciYWdX[ki[Z$
8Wi[Zedj^[cWdoefj_edi]_l[d_dj^[]hemj^ceZ[bifh[i[dj[Z_dj^[?JC
;Kfhe`[Yj?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[biWi<eh[ijCWdW][c[djJeebi"GB#
HJ'///Ä)')*/j^_iY^Wfj[hYWdWbieX[i[[dWiWh[l_[mWdZikccWhoe\j^[Wk#
j^ehijWiaim_j^_dj^_ifhe]hWcc[$
È
3IMULATINGÈ4HINNINGÈANDÈ(ARVESTING
J^[ceZkb[iki[Zjei_ckbWj[j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]m_j^_d_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[
]hemj^i_ckbWjehiYWdX[YbWii_\_[Z"\_hijWYYehZ_d]jej^[c[j^eZXom^_Y^j^[o
^Wl[X[[dZ[h_l[Z"i[YedZWYYehZ_d]jej^[i_bl_YkbjkhWbj^_dd_d]jof["WdZj^_hZ
Xoj^[mWoj^[oWh[_cfb[c[dj[Z_dj^[i_ckbWjehi$
?d][d[hWb"j^[h[Wh[jmec[j^eZie\Z[h_l_d]j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]ceZ[bi"
j^[[cf_h_YWbWdZj^[WdWboj_YWb$
;cf_h_YWb ^Whl[ij_d] ceZ[bi d[[Z ZWjW \hec j^_dd_d]i Wbh[WZo kdZ[hjWa[d
_dehZ[hjeZ[h_l[WdZfWhWc[j[h_p[j^[fheXWX_b_jo\kdYj_edim^_Y^fh[Z_Yjj^[
fheXWX_b_joj^WjWdofWhj_YkbWhjh[[_dj^[ZWjWXWi[m_bbX[h[cel[Z$J^[i[ZWjW
cWoYec[\heccWha_d][nf[h_c[dji"m^[h[\eh[ij[hicWhaj^[jh[[i\ehh[cel#
Wb_dZ_\\[h[djijWdZiXWi[Zedj^[_h[nf[h_[dY["eh\hecYedj_dkeki\eh[ij_dl[d#
jeh_[im^[h[\hech[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edied[YWdZ[j[hc_d[m^_Y^if[Y_\_Yjh[[i
^Wl[_d\WYjX[[dh[cel[Z\hecj^[_dl[djehofbeji$
7dWboj_YWbceZ[biZ[iYh_X[Xol[hoZ_\\[h[djhkb[i^em"WYYehZ_d]jeW][d[h#
WbboWYY[fj[ZehWd_dZ_l_ZkWbijhWj[]o"jh[[ii^ekbZX[h[cel[Z\hecWijWdZWdZ
j^_i_d\ehcWj_ed_ij^[d_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[ZWjWXWi[\ehj^[ceZ[b$
È 3IMULATINGÈ4HINNINGÈANDÈ(ARVESTING '')
CWdoi_bl_YkbjkhWbj^_dd_d]jof[iYWdX[Z[iYh_X[Z_d[_j^[hmWo"[cf_h_YWb#
boehWdWboj_YWbbo$<eh[nWcfb["i[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]YWdX[Z[iYh_X[ZXoki_d]j^_d#
d_d][nf[h_c[dji_dlebl_d]WÆi[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]Çjh[Wjc[djWdZki[j^[ZWjWe\
j^[i[fbejijeZ[h_l[Wd[gkWj_edZ[iYh_X_d]j^[fheXWX_b_joj^WjW]_l[djh[[m_bb
X[ h[cel[Z [$]$ _dYbkZ_d] lWh_WXb[i ikY^ Wi jh[[ i_p[ WdZ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n$
J^[iWc[j^_dd_d]jof[YWdX[Z[iYh_X[ZWdWboj_YWbboXoijWj_d]j^[hkb[iZ[\_d#
_d]m^_Y^jh[[iWh[jeX[h[cel[Z[$]$jh[[ij^WjWh[m_j^_dWif[Y_\_[ZZ_ijWdY[
jeW\kjkh[Yhefjh[[$
È
&REELYÈ$EFINEDÈ(ARVESTINGÈANDÈ4HINNINGÈ-ETHODS
I_dY[ ed[ h[Wied \eh j^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi
_ijefhel_Z[Wjeeb\eh_dl[ij_]Wj_d]WdZfh[Z_Yj_d]j^[h[ikbjie\d[mj^_dd_d]
c[j^eZij^Wj^Wl[dejo[jX[[dWffb_[Zeh[l[dZ[\_d[Z"j^[jeebj^kiX[_d]ef[d
\ehWdod[m_Z[We\ijWdZjh[Wjc[dj"ed[Æi_bl_YkbjkhWbÇefj_edckijX[jeZ[\_d[
\h[[bom^_Y^jh[[iWh[jeX[h[cel[Z$
?\j^[kdZ[hbo_d]]hemj^ceZ[be\Wi_ckbWjeh_iZ_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj"WdZ_i
j^kiWXb[jeZ_ifbWo[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[edWced_jeh"Wd[WiomWojeijkZoWdo
\h[[^Whl[ij_d]fheY[Zkh[_ije_dZ_l_ZkWbbocWhaedj^[iYh[[dj^[jh[[ij^WjWh[
jeX[h[cel[ZY\$CEI;I_d;Yacbbd[h'//&1<_]$,$'$
<ehZ_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djceZ[bi"j^[jh[[iYWddejX[WZZh[ii[Z_dZ_l_ZkWbbo
edj^[ced_jeh$Ed[efj_ed_dj^_iYWi[_ijej^_dj^[ijWdZXoh[ZkY_d]jh[[dkc#
X[hi$>[dY[W\_b[_iZ[\_d[ZYedjW_d_d]_d\ehcWj_edWXekjm^_Y^jh[[_ijeX[h[#
cel[ZWdZm^[d[$]$Xojh[[dkcX[h"\ebbem[ZXoj^[j^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^c[$]$
8M?DFheWdZFhe]d7ki1i[[IZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)$
&IGÈÈ 4HEÈ MARKINGÈ PROCEDUREÈ ONÈ THEÈ MONITORÈ INÈ THEÈ -/3%3È SIMULATORÈ 4REESÈ INDICATEDÈ INÈ
GREYÈHAVEÈBEENÈMARKEDÈFORÈREMOVAL
''* #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
7dej^[hefj_edje\h[[boi[b[Yjjh[[i\ehj^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]_dZ_ijWdY[#
_dZ[f[dZ[dji_ckbWjehi_ijeZ_ifbWoj^[\h[gk[dYoe\jh[[YbWii[i_dj[hcie\if[#
Y_[i"Z_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jZX^WdZij[cgkWb_jo"WdZj^[d_dj[hWYj_l[boje
h[ZkY[j^[\h[gk[dY_[i_d[WY^e\j^[i[YbWii[i[$]$LWdYbWo'/./1WdZFhe]d7ki
_dB[Z[hcWdd(&&'1<_]$,$($
È
-IMICKINGÈ0RACTICALLYÈ0ERFORMEDÈ4HINNINGÈ
ANDÈ(ARVESTINGÈ0ROCEDURESÈ%MPIRICALÈ!PPROACH
M^_b[j^[fheY[Zkh[i_dj^[WXel[i[Yj_edcWa[feii_Xb[l[ho\h[[i_ckbWj_edi
e\WdoijWdZjh[Wjc[dj"[l[dm_j^ekjh[]WhZjej^[_hfhWYj_YWX_b_jo"j^[h[Wh[ej^[h
feii_X_b_j_[ijec_c_Yj^_dd_d]iWdZ^Whl[ij_d]fheY[Zkh[iedWd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[
XWi_iWif[h\ehc[Z_dfhWYj_Y[$
J^_9ed _i W fheY[Zkh[ _cfb[c[dj[Z _d 8M?DFhe DW][b '//,1 :Wkc[ WdZ
HeX[hjied (&&&1 7bX[hj (&&(1 7bX[hj WdZ =k[h_Ya[ (&&) ki_d] jh[[ fei_j_edi"
ZX^"if[Y_[i"jh[[l_jWb_jo"ij[cgkWb_joWdZj^[Yhemdj[di_edX[jm[[dd[_]^Xekh#
_d]jh[[i$J^[i[lWh_WXb[iWh[YecX_d[ZXobe]_YWbijWj[c[dji"_$[$^[kh_ij_Yhkb[i"
&IGÈÈ4HINNINGÈREDUC
TIONÈOFÈTREEÈNUMBER ÈBYÈSPE
CIESÈSTEMÈQUALITYÈCLASSÈANDÈ
DBHÈINÈ0ROGN!USÈABOVEÈ.OR
WAYÈSPRUCEÈBELOWÈCOMMONÈ
BEECH
È 3IMULATINGÈ4HINNINGÈANDÈ(ARVESTING ''+
m^_Y^YWdX[Z[\_d[Z\h[[boWdZm^_Y^Wh[ki[Zjei[WhY^j^[ZWjWXWi[jei[b[Yj
j^[jh[[icWjY^_d]j^[hkb[iWdZWh[j^kijeX[h[cel[Z$
J^[[cf_h_YWbWffheWY^fhel_Z[iWfheXWX_b_jo\kdYj_edj^WjYWdX[j[ij[Z\eh
_d\bk[dj_Wb lWh_WXb[i WdZ fWhWc[j[h_i[Z Xo be]_ij_Y h[]h[ii_ed c[j^eZi B[Z[h#
cWdd(&&(WiZ[iYh_X[Z[Whb_[h$
È
$EVELOPINGÈ!LGORITHMSÈTOÈ3IMULATEÈ3ILVICULTURALLYÈ$EFINEDÈ4HINNINGÈ
ANDÈ(ARVESTINGÈ2ULESÈ!NALYTICALÈ!PPROACH
8[^_dZj[hciikY^Wii[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]"j^_dd_d]\hecX[bem"][ec[jh_Yj^_d#
d_d]" j^_dd_d] WYYehZ_d] je ]k_Z[b_d[i Z[iYh_X_d] efj_ckc XWiWb Wh[W _d [l[d#
W][Z \eh[iji eh [gk_b_Xh_kc Ykhl[i _d kd[l[d#W][Z \eh[iji" j^[h[ Wh[ l[ho e\j[d
_cfb_Y_jdkc[h_YWbboZ[\_d[Zhkb[im^_Y^YWdX[ki[ZjeZ[\_d[WcWjY^_d]Wb]e#
h_j^c$
IjWdZ#XWi[Z]k_Z[b_d[iikY^Wi7iicWddÉi'/-&efj_ckcXWiWbWh[W"7X[jpÉ
'/-+ij[cdkcX[h]k_Z[b_d[iehZ[B_eYekhjÉi'./.[gk_b_Xh_kcij[cdkcX[h
Ykhl[\ehkd[l[d#W][ZijWdZiWh[[Wioje\ebbemcWj^[cWj_YWbbo"Wbj^ek]^WZZ_#
j_edWbhkb[iWh[d[[Z[Z\eh_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[bi_dehZ[hjeZ[Y_Z[m^_Y^if[#
Y_\_Yjh[[_ijeX[h[cel[Z$
?\j^[]k_Z[b_d[iWh[XWi[ZedZX^Z_ijh_Xkj_edi"Wh[WiedWXb[mWojeZ[Y_Z[h[#
celWb_ijeki[WhWdZecdkcX[hWb]eh_j^c"h[bWj_d]j^[f[hY[djW][e\jh[[ij^Wj
^Wl[jeX[h[cel[Zjej^[ikhfbkidkcX[he\jh[[i_dW]_l[dZX^YbWii<_]$,$)$
?\j^[]k_Z[b_d[iedbo]_l[WjWh][jij[cdkcX[hehWXWiWbWh[WedWijWdZXWi[
<_]$,$*"WZZ_j_edWbÆi_bl_YkbjkhWbÇhkb[iWh[d[[Z[ZjeZ[iYh_X[m^[j^[hj^[f[h#
Y[djW][e\ij[ciehXWiWbWh[WjeX[h[cel[Zi^ekbZX[h[cel[ZXoj^_dd_d]\hec
X[bem"\hecWXel[ehXomWoe\i[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]$
<ehj^_dd_d]i\hecX[bem"WY[djhWbceZkb[m_j^Wd_djh_di_Y\kppobe]_YYed#
jhebb[h mWi Z[l[bef[Z Xo AW^d '//+W"X" '//," m^_Y^ Yedi_iji e\ W i_cfb[ hkb[
XWi[m_j^deceh[j^Wdi[l[dhkb[i$J^[i[hkb[iWh[Z[i_]d[Zje[lWbkWj[j^[Ækh#
][dYoÇ \eh h[cel_d] W jh[[" XWi[Z edbo ed j^[ h[bWj_l[ ZX^ ÆbWh][h eh icWbb[h
&IGÈÈ4HINNINGÈBYÈAÈSTEMÈ
NUMBERÈ.HA ÈGUIDELINE
'', #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
j^Wdj^[d[_]^XekhÇWdZj^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n"AAB"ki[Z_dI?BL7Fh[jpiY^
[jWb$(&&($
<ehi[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]i"i[l[hWbceZkb[iWh[WlW_bWXb[WdZ_cfb[c[dj[Z_dj^[
Z_\\[h[dji_ckbWjehi$J^[o][d[hWbboYedi_ije\jmeikX#ceZkb[i"ed[\ehj^[i[#
b[Yj_ede\\kjkh[Yhefjh[[iWdZj^[ej^[h\ehh[cel_d]j^[_hYecf[j_jehi$J^[i[
ceZkb[iWh[Z[iYh_X[Z_dceh[Z[jW_b_dIZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)$=[d#
[hWbbo"j^[i[b[Yj_ede\j^[\kjkh[Yhefjh[[iijWhjim_j^j^[dkcX[he\Yhefjh[[i
f[h^[YjWh[]_l[d"WdZj^[dki[ij^[^[_]^j#je#Z_Wc[j[hhWj_eWiWc[Wikh[e\l_#
jWb_jo$Iec[j_c[i"_dWZZ_j_ed"j^[YhemdhWj_e"ij[cgkWb_joWdZij[cZWcW]["WdZ
j^[hWj_eX[jm[[dj^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ZX^WdZj^[gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[he\j^[
ijWdZcWoX[ki[ZjeYWbYkbWj[m[_]^j_d]iWYYehZ_d]jem^_Y^j^[jh[[ie\j^[ZW#
jWXWi[Wh[iehj[Z$J^ei[jh[[im_j^j^[^_]^[ijm[_]^j_d]iWh[j^[di[b[Yj[ZWi\k#
jkh[ Yhef jh[[i$ ?d Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi" W c_d_ckc Z_ijWdY[
X[jm[[dj^[\kjkh[Yhefjh[[iYWdWZZ_j_edWbboX[Z[\_d[Z$
I[l[hWbhkb[iWh[_cfb[c[dj[Z_dj^[i_ckbWjehijei[b[Yjj^[Yecf[j_jehije
X[h[cel[Z$J^[i_cfb[ij"ki[Z_dZ_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djceZ[biedbo"_ijeh[cel[
Wbbjh[[im_j^_dWY^ei[dhWZ_kiWhekdZj^[\kjkh[Yhefjh[[i$7ceh[ief^_ij_YWj#
[Zed[ki[i@e^WddÉi'/.(Yh_j_YWbZ_ijWdY["YWbYkbWj[ZWi0
^pZX^_
:_ij_p3ÄÄÄÄÕÄÄÄÄÄ#
7ZX^ p
m^[h[:_ij_ij^[Z_ijWdY[X[jm[[dj^[\kjkh[Yhefjh[[p"WdZj^[d[_]^Xekh
_" ^p WdZ ZX^p" j^[ ^[_]^j WdZ ZX^ e\ j^[ \kjkh[ Yhef jh[[ h[if[Yj_l[bo"ZX^_ j^[
Xh[Wij#^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[he\j^[Yecf[j_jeh_"WdZ7_iWlWbk[X[jm[[d)WdZ,"_d#
Z_YWj_d]j^[Y^ei[di[l[h_joe\j^[j^_dd_d]"m_j^)\ehl[ho^[Wloj^_dd_d]WdZ,
\ehl[hob_]^jj^_dd_d]$
Ceh[ief^_ij_YWj[Zhkb[i\ehYecf[j_jehi[b[Yj_edWh[Z[\_d[Z_dj^[^[kh_ij_Y
j^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^cJ^_9ede\8M?DFhe7bX[hj(&&("WdZWibe]_ij_Yh[]h[ii_ed
ceZ[bi_dFhe]d7ki$8ej^j^[i[ceZ[biW]W_dki[h[bWj_l[jh[[Z_c[di_edi"if[#
Y_[i"jh[[l_jWb_jo"ij[cgkWb_joWdZZWcW][YbWii[i"m^_b[8MDFheWZZ_j_edWbboki#
[i_dj[h#jh[[Z_ijWdY[WdZYhemdj[di_edjeZ[\_d[j^[j^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^c$
È 3IMULATINGÈ4HINNINGÈANDÈ(ARVESTING ''-
Jmeceh[Æ^Whl[ij_d]ceZ[biÇ^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[ZWdZ_cfb[c[dj[Z_dj^[
i_ckbWjehie\j^[?JCfhe`[Yj$Ed[Z[iYh_X[iiWblW][YkjcWZ[d[Y[iiWhoXoidem
Xh[WaW][_dDehmWoifhkY[WdZIYejif_d[ijWdZiIj[hXW'//&"WdZj^[ej^[h_i
Wckbj_#eX`[Yj_l[efj_c_pWj_edioij[c_cfb[c[dj[Z_dIJ7D:FkaaWbWWdZC__#
dW'//-$
J^[idemXh[WaW][ceZ[bYWbYkbWj[ij^[fheXWX_b_joj^WjWYhemd_iXhea[dXo
idemWdZj^[^[_]^jWjm^_Y^_j_iXhea[dZ[f[dZ_d]edboedj^[^[_]^j#je#Z_Wc#
[j[hhWj_ee\j^[jh[[0
FI8_3'Ä[nfQÄ*$&(Õ^_%ZX^_S(.$+
Xh^_3^_Õ[nfÄ+$+)(Õ^_%ZX^_
m^[h[FI8__ij^[fheXWX_b_joj^Wjj^[jh[[__iXhea[d"Xh^_j^[^[_]^jWjm^_Y^
j^[jh[[_iXhea[dWdZ^_j^[jh[[^[_]^j_dc[jh[i"WdZZX^_j^[Xh[Wij#^[_]^jZ_#
Wc[j[h_dY[dj_c[jh[i$
J^[ ckbj_#eX`[Yj_l[ efj_c_pWj_ed hekj_d[ Ze[i dej Z[iYh_X[ ]_l[d j^_dd_d]
WdZ^Whl[ij_d]Wb]eh_j^ci"XkjhWj^[hj^[dkcX[hWdZj_c_d]e\j^_dd_d]i"j^[h[#
celWbXojh[[if[Y_[iWdZZX^YbWiiefj_c_p[Z_dj^[ioij[cWYYehZ_d]jeWdWZ#
Z_j_l[kj_b_jo\kdYj_ed"m[_]^j_d]Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[iikY^Wifhe\_j#
WX_b_jo"b_gk_Z_joWdZiY[d_YlWbk[$
È
$ETERMINISTICÈANDÈ3TOCHASTICÈ)MPLEMENTATIONÈ
OFÈ(ARVESTINGÈ!LGORITHMS
CWdoe\j^[WXel[hkb[ih[ikbj_dfheXWX_b_j_[ie\h[bWj_l[\h[gk[dY_[ie\jh[[i
jeX[h[cel[Z$7YYehZ_d]jeIZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)ikY^hkb[iYWdX[
Wffb_[Z_dWZ[j[hc_d_ij_YmWoeh_dWijeY^Wij_YmWo$
?\Ä[if[Y_Wbbo_dZ_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dji_ckbWjehiÄif[Y_\_Yjh[[i_dj^[ZWjW#
XWi[^Wl[jeX[h[cel[Z"j^[YWbYkbWj[ZfheXWX_b_j_[iehh[bWj_l[\h[gk[dY_[iWh[
YecfWh[Zm_j^kd_\ehcboZ_ijh_Xkj[ZhWdZecdkcX[hiX[jm[[d&WdZ'\eh[WY^
jh[[$ ?\ j^[ hWdZec dkcX[h _i icWbb[h j^Wd j^[ YWbYkbWj[Z fheXWX_b_jo" j^[d j^[
jh[[_ih[cel[Z$
J^[ Z[j[hc_d_ij_Y WffheWY^ je Z[Y_Z[ m^[j^[h W if[Y_\_Y jh[[ _i je X[ \[bb[Z
ki[iWj^h[i^ebZlWbk[m^_Y^_iYecfWh[Zm_j^j^[YWbYkbWj[ZfheXWX_b_jo$?dZ_i#
jWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dji_ckbWjehi"^em[l[h"[WY^jh[[_dj^[ZWjWXWi[YWdX[h[]WhZ#
[ZWih[fh[i[dj_d]Wif[Y_\_YdkcX[he\jh[[if[h^[YjWh["Z[f[dZ_d]edj^[ijWdZ
i_p["fbeji_p[ehXWiWbWh[W\WYjeh_dWd]b[Yekdji8_jj[hb_Y^'/*.$?dj^_iYWi["
j^_idkcX[he\jh[[if[h^[YjWh[_ii_cfboh[ZkY[ZXoj^[fheXWX_b_joYWbYkbWj[Z
Xoj^[^Whl[ij_d]ceZ[b$
7jWXb[Z[iYh_X_d]m^_Y^j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]ceZ[biWh[ehYekbZX[_c#
fb[c[dj[Z _d Wdo if[Y_\_Y ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh ^Wi X[[d fheZkY[Z Xo IZ[hX[h]^
WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)$
''. #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
È
#OMMERCIALÈ!SSORTMENTSÈANDÈ3TEMÈ1UALITY
9ecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[djiWh[kikWbboYbWii_\_[ZWYYehZ_d]jeZ_c[di_ediZ_#
Wc[j[h WdZ meeZ gkWb_jo$ J^[ hkb[i \eh YbWii_\_YWj_ed Ä [if[Y_Wbbo \eh gkWb_jo"
WdZj^[h[[if[Y_Wbbo_d^WhZmeeZÄZ_\\[hjh[c[dZekiboX[jm[[dYekdjh_[i"m_j^#
_dYekdjh_[iX[jm[[dh[]_ediWdZ[l[dX[jm[[d_dZ_l_ZkWb\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[i"Z[#
f[dZ_d]edj^[_hh[]kbWhYb_[dji$
9edl[hj_d]jh[[Z_c[di_ediZX^WdZ^[_]^jjebe]Z_c[di_ediYWdX[f[h#
\ehc[Z0
v j^hek]^ceZkb[ij^Wj_dj[hWYj_l[boÆYkjÇj^[jh[[_djebe]iki_d]jWf[hYkhl[i
Q[$]$ 8:7J _d I?BL7" XWi[Z ed j^[ jWf[h Ykhl[i e\ AkXb_d WdZ IY^WhdW][b
'/..1 _d 8M?DFhe ki_d] j^[ fheY[Zkh[i e\ H_[c[h [j Wb$ '//+" FW_d WdZ
8eo[h'//,WdZIY^c_Zj(&&'1eh_dIJ7D:ki_d]j^[fheY[Zkh[ie\A_ba#
a_WdZLWhcebW'/-/"BWWiWi[dW^e'/.(WdZBWff_'/.,S1eh
v j^hek]^Wiiehjc[djjWXb[iQ[$]$j^ei[e\Ab[_d['/.,"Ij[hXW[jWb$'/.,WdZ
;Yacbbd[h WdZ Ij[hXW (&&( \eh CEI;I WdZ Fhe]d7ki" eh j^ei[ e\ F[jh|
'//(WdZC[Yae[jWb$'//)_dj^[l[hi_ede\I?BL7ki[Z\ehIbelWa_WS$
J^[j_cX[hgkWb_joe\be]i"^em[l[h"_iZ[\_d[ZXojmejof[ie\c[Wikh[0'
j^ei[j^WjWh[j^[h[ikbje\ij[c]hemj^"ikY^WiXhWdY^_d[ii"jh[[h_d]m_Zj^WdZ
jWf[h"WdZ(j^ei[j^WjWh[j^[h[ikbje\ZWcW][YWki[ZXo\eh[ijef[hWj_edi"f[[b#
_d]ehheejhej\hec\kd]__dj^[ie_b$
J^[ \_hij ]hekf e\ c[Wikh[i YWd X[ ceZ[bb[Z Z[f[dZ_d] ed ijWdZ_d] jh[[
c[Wikh[i"ZX^WdZ^[_]^j$Jh[[h_d]m_Zj^WiWd_cfehjWdjbe]#gkWb_joc[Wikh[_i
Z_h[YjboeXjW_d[Z\hecj^[ZX^_dYh[c[dj"m^_Y^_iWbmWoiceZ[bb[Z_dWbb]hemj^
i_ckbWjehi$
M_j^h[if[Yjjej^[ej^[h]hekfe\ij[cgkWb_joc[Wikh[i"_jckij\_hijX[Wi#
Y[hjW_d[Zm^[j^[hj^[i[c[Wikh[iYehh[bWj[m_j^j^[j_cX[hgkWb_joe\j^[be]iWj
^Whl[ij$<ehj^ei[j^WjZe"_j_iikXi[gk[djbod[Y[iiWhojeceZ[bj^[Z[l[befc[dj
e\j^[i[c[Wikh[iel[hj_c[$<eh_dZ_l_ZkWbiekj^[hdf_d[jh[[iF_dkijW[ZWB$"
F_dki [Y^_dWjW C_bb" 9bWha WdZ CY7b_ij[h '//. ^Wl[ i^emd j^Wj YWh[\kb l_ik#
Wbij[cgkWb_joWii[iic[djcWZ[_jfeii_Xb[jeZ_ij_d]k_i^i_]d_\_YWdjbom[bbX[#
jm[[dj^h[[Z_\\[h[djijkcfW][lWbk[YbWii[i"XWi[Zedj_cX[h]hWZ[o_[bZ$D[l[h#
j^[b[ii"_j_id[Y[iiWhojeZ[j[hc_d[m^[j^[hWdoi_]d_\_YWdjh[bWj_edi^_fX[jm[[d
ij[cgkWb_joWdZij[cZWcW]["Wii[ii[Z_dj^[ijWdZ"WdZj_cX[hgkWb_joYbWii[i
WiZ[\_d[Z_dj[hcie\Y[djhWb;khef[Wd]hWZ_d]ioij[ci[n_ijiX[\eh[Z[l[bef_d]
ceZ[bijefh[Z_Yjij[cgkWb_joYbWii[iWdZij[cZWcW][$
È
-ODELLINGÈ)NDIVIDUALÈ4REEÈ3TEMÈ1UALITY
7ced]j^[i_ckbWjehi_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[?JCfhe`[Yj"i[l[hWbceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[
^[_]^jjej^[b_l[Yhemdj^WjYWdX[ki[ZWiWc[Wikh[e\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[XhWdY^_#
d[ii$7d7kijh_WdijkZoedj^[h[bWj_edi^_fX[jm[[d]hemj^WdZYhemdjhWdifWh#
[dYoIj[hXWWdZ;Yacbbd[h'/.._dl[ij_]Wj[Z'+.ifhkY[jh[[ij^Wj^WZX[[d
È #OMMERCIALÈ!SSORTMENTSÈANDÈ3TEMÈ1UALITY ''/
&IGÈÈ4HEÈ
HEIGHTÈTOÈTHEÈÈ
CROWNÈBASEÈ(# È
OFÈÈSPRUCEÈ
TREESÈCOMPAREDÈ
INÈTHEÈRESPEC
TIVEÈMODELSÈDIS
CUSSEDÈINÈTHEÈ)4-È
PROJECTSÈSEEÈALSOÈ
4ABLEÈ
4ABLEÈÈ #OEFFICIENTSÈ OFÈ DETERMINATIONÈ R È ANDÈ MODELÈ EFFICIENCYÈ %& È ,OAGUEÈ ANDÈ 'REENÈ
È OFÈ THEÈ CROWNÈ MODELSÈ USEDÈ INÈ "7).0ROÈ 3),6!È -/3%3È ANDÈ 0ROGN!USÈ ANDÈ THOSEÈ OFÈ
3CHMIDTÈ ÈONEÈINCLUDINGÈTHEÈDOMINANTÈHEIGHTÈH ÈANDÈTHEÈOTHERÈINCLUDINGÈTHEÈCROWNÈ
RATIOÈOFÈTHEÈÈLARGESTÈTREESÈ#2ÈH
\[bb[ZWdZc[Wikh[Z\ehYhemdb[d]j^WdZXhWdY^j^_Yad[ii;Yacbbd[h'/.-$
J^[i[ ZWjW m[h[ ki[Z je lWb_ZWj[ j^[ Yhemd ceZ[bi e\ DW][b '/// Wi ki[Z _d
8M?DFhe"e\AW^dWdZFh[jpiY^'//-Wiki[Z_dI?BL7"e\>Wi[dWk[h'//*Wi
ki[Z_dCEI;I"e\>Wi[dWk[hWdZCedi[hkZ'//,Wiki[Z_dFhe]d7ki"WdZe\
IY^c_Zj(&&'m^_Y^mWi_dj[dZ[ZjeX[ki[Z_dWdoe\j^[i[ceZ[bi<_]$,$+$
EXl_ekiboceije\j^[ceZ[biYehh[bWj[gk_j[m[bbm_j^j^[lWb_ZWj_edZWjW"Wb#
j^ek]^ iec[ e\ j^[c Wh[ cWha[Zbo X_Wi[Z" m^_Y^ cWo X[ Zk[ je Z_\\[h[dj Z[\#
_d_j_edi e\ j^[ Yhemd XWi[ _d Z_\\[h[dj Yekdjh_[i" h[]_edi WdZ j^[ ZWjW i[j JW#
Xb[,$'$
7 i_c_bWh fheY[Zkh[ YecfWh[Z IY^c_ZjÉi (&&' ceZ[b \eh j^[ Z_Wc[j[h e\
j^[j^_Ya[ijXhWdY^_d[WY^m^ehbm_j^j^ei[e\j^[7kijh_WdlWb_ZWj_edZWjWi[j"
_$[$m_j^WjejWbe\'")&(XhWdY^[i_dj^['+.ifhkY[i$J^[h(e\&$,(&WdZj^[dej
'(& #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
ckY^icWbb[hceZ[b[\\_Y_[dYoe\&$+'*_dZ_YWj[j^Wjj^[ZWjWYehh[ifedZgk_j[
m[bbm_j^j^[ceZ[b$
È
#ORRESPONDENCEÈ"ETWEENÈ/BSERVEDÈ,OGÈ1UALITYÈ
ANDÈ3TEMÈ1UALITYÈ!SSESSMENTÈINÈ)NVENTORIES
?dehZ[hjeWdim[hj^[gk[ij_edm^[j^[hij[cgkWb_joWdZij[cZWcW][YbWii[i
Wh[h[\b[Yj[Zm[bb_dj^[^Whl[ij_d]h[ikbji"_$[$j^[h[YehZ[Zbe]gkWb_joe\^Whl[iji
_d \eh[ij [dj[hfh_i[i" \ekh \eh[ij [dj[hfh_i[i Ä jme7kijh_Wd \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj
Z_ijh_Yji"M[_jhWWdZ7d][h^ki[h"j^[IjWk\\[dXkh]cWdW][c[djZ_ijh_Yj_dBem#
[hIWnedo"WdZj^[IbelWa_WdcWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjEhWlia|Feb^ehWÄfhel_Z[ZZW#
jWe\j^[_hf[hcWd[dj_dl[djeh_[iWdZj^[_h^Whl[ijh[YehZi$J^[i[^Whl[ijh[YehZi
h[bWj[ZjeYecfWhjc[djie\Z_\\[h[dji_p[i"j^kiYedjW_d_d]Z_\\[h[djdkcX[hie\
iWcfb[fbejiWdZjh[[i^Whl[ij[Z$J^[lebkc[e\j^[jh[[i^Whl[ij[ZX[jm[[djme
_dl[djehoWii[iic[djimWiYWbYkbWj[ZWdZYbWii_\_[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[ij[cgkWb_jo
YbWii[ie\j^[_dl[djeho\ehWbbj^[fbeji_dWYecfWhjc[dj<_]$,$,$
<hecj^[^Whl[ijh[YehZi"j^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ede\be]gkWb_joYbWii[i_dj^[^Whl[ij#
[Zlebkc[YekbZX[YWbYkbWj[Z\hecj^[[dj[hfh_i[iÉXeea#a[[f_d]h[YehZiWdZh[#
bWj[Zjej^[ij[cgkWb_joZWjW\ehj^[YecfWhjc[dji$?dj^[IjWk\\[dXkh]Z_ijh_Yj"
XheWZb[Wl[iZec_dWj[Z"WdZj^kiedboj^[gkWb_joe\j^[i[mWi[lWbkWj[Z1_dj^[
ej^[hj^h[[Z_ijh_Yji"DehmWoifhkY[WdZiec[ej^[hYed_\[hiZec_dWj[Z$?dM[_#
jhWWdZEhWlia|Feb^ehW"f[[b_d]ZWcW][mWiYedi_Z[h[ZjeX[WcW`ehij[cgkWb#
_jofheXb[c"m^_b[_d7d][h^ki[hj^[gkWb_jofheXb[cmWiYedi_Z[h[ZjeX[^Wh#
l[ij_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]ZWcW][$
J^[mWoj_cX[hgkWb_jomWiYbWii_\_[ZmWil[hoZ_\\[h[dj_dj^[\ekh[dj[hfh_i#
[i$M^_b[_d7d][h^ki[h"X[ij"c[Z_kcWdZfeehgkWb_j_[i7"8WdZ9h[if[Yj_l[#
boWh[Z_ij_d]k_i^[Z_dj^[h[YehZi"_dM[_jhWj^[h[_iedboed[]eeZgkWb_joc_n#
&IGÈÈ)NVENTORYÈPLOTSÈINÈAÈ
COMPARTMENTÈFORÈWHICHÈHAR
VESTEDÈLOGÈQUALITIESÈAREÈAVAIL
ABLEÈINÈTHEÈFORESTÈENTERPRISEÈ
BOOK
KEEPINGÈ3TEMÈQUALI
TYÈOFÈREMOVEDÈTREESÈHASÈBEENÈ
ASSESSEDÈINÈTHEÈFIRSTÈINVENTO
RYÈANDÈSHOULDÈTHUSÈCORRELATEÈ
WITHÈTHEÈREPORTEDÈLOGÈQUALITY
È #OMMERCIALÈ!SSORTMENTSÈANDÈ3TEMÈ1UALITY '('
jkh[78%79Z_ij_d]k_i^[Z\hec9feehgkWb_jo$?dM[_jhWj^[feehgkWb_joYWj[#
]eh_[iWh[Z_\\[h[dj\hecj^ei[_d7d][h^ki[h$J^[IbelWa_WdYbWii_\_YWj_edÄWb#
j^ek]^\ehDehmWoifhkY["jeeÄZ_\\[hil[hockY^\hecj^[ej^[hjmeifhkY[#
Zec_dWj[ZcWdW][c[djWh[Wi"m_j^YbWii_\_YWj_edie\?je???\eh]eeZWdZ?LWdZ
L\ehfeehj_cX[hgkWb_joYbWii[i$<hecj^_i_j_iYedYbkZ[Zj^Wj_j_idej\[Wi_Xb[
je_cfb[c[dj][d[hWbboWffb_YWXb[\kdYj_edijeYedl[hjij[cgkWb_jo"WiceZ[bb[Z
_dWi_ckbWjeh"Z_h[Yjbo_djebe]gkWb_joYbWii[i$HWj^[hj^_i_d\ehcWj_ed^WijeX[
Z[h_l[ZXo[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWb\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[ki_d]_jiemdZWjW$
<khj^[hceh[m[YWddejYWbYkbWj[Yehh[bWj_ediX[jm[[dij[cgkWb_jo_dj^[_d#
l[djeh_[iWdZj_cX[hgkWb_jo_dj^[YecfWhjc[djiWih[YehZ[Z_dj^[Xeea#a[[f#
_d][l[d\ehj^[\ekh[dj[hfh_i[i"_$[$XoW]]h[]Wj_d]j^[_hZWjW0j^[i[Yehh[bWj_edi
^Wl[jeX[YWbYkbWj[Zi[fWhWj[bo\eh[WY^[dj[hfh_i[$
?j _i Yb[Wh j^Wj j^[ feii_X_b_jo e\ Z[j[Yj_d] i_]d_\_YWdj Yehh[bWj_edi X[jm[[d
ij[cgkWb_joZ_ijh_Xkj_edWdZbe]gkWb_joZ_ijh_Xkj_edZ[f[dZiediWcfb[i_p[JW#
Xb[,$($J^[WYYkhWYoe\j^[ij[cgkWb_joZ_ijh_Xkj_edZ[f[dZiedj^[dkcX[he\
fbejif[hYecfWhjc[djWdZj^[fbeji_p["_$[$dkcX[he\jh[[i^Whl[ij[Zm_j^_dj^[
fbeji$?dj^_ih[]WhZ"j^[iWcfb[i_p[_dEhWlia|Feb^ehW_ihWj^[hfeeh"Xkjiec[#
m^WjYecf[diWj[ZXoj^[bWh][fbeji_p[$
I_dY[[WY^YecfWhjc[dj_ied[ZWjWfe_dj\ehj^[Yehh[bWj_ediX[jm[[dij[c
gkWb_joWdZbe]gkWb_jo"j^[dkcX[he\ZWjWfe_dji_igk_j[bem\ehWbbcWdW][c[dj
Wh[Wi$;if[Y_Wbbo_dj^[jme7kijh_WdcWdW][c[djZ_ijh_Yji"j^[Yehh[bWj_edickij
X[gk_j[^_]^_dehZ[hjeX[Z[j[Yj[Z_$[$i_]d_\_YWdj$;WY^e\j^[Yehh[bWj_edih[#
fehj[ZX[bemh[bWj[je-Z[]h[[ie\\h[[Zec_dM[_jhW"''Z[]h[[ie\\h[[Zec_d
7d][h^ki[hWdZ(-Z[]h[[ie\\h[[Zec_dEhWlia|Feb^ehWWdZIjWk\\[dXkh]$
D[l[hj^[b[ii"i_]d_\_YWdjYehh[bWj_edim[h[\ekdZ0
v ?dM[_jhW"j^[fhefehj_ede\ij[clebkc[j^WjmWiYbWii_\_[ZWi]eeZiWmj_c#
X[h_dj^[_dl[djehomWi_dl[hi[boYehh[bWj[Zm_j^j^[fhefehj_ede\9#be]i"
m^_Y^Wh[Z[\_d[ZWifeehiWmj_cX[hh3Ä&$/''"A2&$&'"WdZj^[fhefehj_ed
e\ij[cmeeZh[YehZ[Zm_j^f[[b_d]ZWcW][_dj^[_dl[djehomWifei_j_l[bo
Yehh[bWj[Zm_j^j^[fhefehj_ede\feehfkbfmeeZiebZh3&$-.+"A2&$&+$
4ABLEÈÈ3AMPLEÈSIZESÈFORÈTHEÈCORRELATIONSÈBETWEENÈSTEMÈQUALITYÈASSESSMENTÈANDÈLOGÈQUALI
TYÈRECORDS
v ?d7d][h^ki[h"j^[fhefehj_ede\ij[clebkc[YbWii_\_[ZWiX[ijij[cgkWb_jo
_dj^[_dl[djehomWii_]d_\_YWdjboWdZfei_j_l[boYehh[bWj[Zm_j^j^[fhefeh#
j_ede\8#be]iiebZh3&$.-*"A2&$&'WdZd[]Wj_l[bom_j^j^[fhefehj_ede\
fkbfWdZfWf[hbe]ih3Ä&$/&+"A2&$&'WdZj^[fhefehj_ede\\k[bmeeZh3Ä
&$,/+"A2&$&+$
v ?d j^[ IbelWa_Wd [dj[hfh_i[" EhWlia| feb^ehW" j^[ Yehh[bWj_edi i^emd _d JW#
Xb[,$)_dZ_YWj[j^Wjj^[f[hY[djW][e\ij[clebkc[\ekdZjeX[f[[b[ZWj_d#
l[djehomWifei_j_l[boYehh[bWj[Zm_j^j^[fhefehj_ede\j_cX[hhWj[ZWifeeh
gkWb_joWdZd[]Wj_l[boYehh[bWj[Zm_j^j^[fhefehj_edhWj[ZWi]eeZgkWb_jo$
v ?dIjWk\\[dXkh]"j^[Yehh[bWj_edim[h[l[hofeeh$Edboj^[fhefehj_ede\ij[ci
j^Wjm[h[Wii[ii[Zje^Wl[7gkWb_jo_dj^[_dl[djehoi^em[ZWYehh[bWj_ed
d[]Wj_l[bom_j^j^[fhefehj_ede\8gkWb_joj_cX[h_dj^[Xeea#a[[f_d]h3Ä
&$).-"A2&$&+$J^_ifeehYehh[bWj_ed_ifheXWXboWh[ikbje\j^[m[bb#ademd
l[hoYecfb[nWdZZ_\\_YkbjgkWb_joWii[iic[dj\ehXheWZb[Wl[i$
?d ikccWho" j^[ Yehh[bWj_edi \ekdZ _dZ_YWj[ j^Wj" Wj b[Wij \eh Yed_\[hi" ij[c
gkWb_jo Wii[iic[dj _i i_]d_\_YWdjbo Yehh[bWj[Z m_j^ ^Whl[ij[Z be] gkWb_jo$ J^[h[#
\eh[" _j i[[ci `kij_\_WXb[ je _dYehfehWj[ ij[c gkWb_jo ceZ[bi _dje j^[ Z_\\[h[dj
]hemj^i_ckbWjehi$
È
3TEMÈ1UALITYÈ-ODELLINGÈASÈ0ARTÈOFÈTHEÈ)NDIVIDUALÈÈ
4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATORS
:[\_d_j_edi e\ ij[c gkWb_jo _d j[hci e\ XhWdY^_d[ii Wh[ Wbh[WZo _cfb[c[dj#
[Z_di[l[hWbe\j^[i_ckbWjehii[[I[Yj$,$)$'WdZ<_]$,$+"WdZj^[XhWdY^ceZ#
[bXoIY^c_Zj(&&'$?dWZZ_j_ed"ij[cgkWb_jo_ii[h_ekiboW\\[Yj[ZXoij[cZWc#
W][YWki[ZXof[[b_d]ehXo^Whl[ij_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]$I_dY[j^[i[Wii[iic[djiWh[
XWi[ZedWii_]d_d]YWj[]eh_[i"\h[gk[djboki_d]Z_Y^ejecekilWh_WXb[i"Wfhef[h
4ABLEÈÈ#ORRELATIONSÈR ÈBETWEENÈTHEÈPROPORTIONSÈOFÈDIFFERENTÈSTEMÈQUALITIESÈFROMÈTHEÈINVEN
TORYÈASSESSMENTÈANDÈLOGÈQUALITIESÈFROMÈHARVESTÈRECORDSÈINÈTHEÈMANAGEMENTÈDISTRICTÈ/RAVSKÉÈ0OL
HORAÈ#ORRELATIONÈCOEFFICIENTSÈINÈITALICSÈAREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈAÈINÈBOLDÈTHEYÈAREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈ
AÈITALICÈANDÈBOLDÈCOEFFICIENTSÈAREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈAÈDGÈ1UADRATICÈMEANÈDIAMETER
È È !SSORTMENTSÈHARVESTED
È È )))È )))È )6È 6
mWojeceZ[bij[cgkWb_jo_ij^[Z[l[befc[dje\be]_ij_Yh[]h[ii_edceZ[bi"fh[#
Z_Yj_d]j^[fh[i[dY[ehWXi[dY[e\WY[hjW_dYWj[]eho$=_l[dWZWjWi[je\f[hcW#
d[dj_dl[djeh_[i"j^[i[ceZ[biYWdX[Z[l[bef[ZWiijWj_YehWiZodWc_YceZ[bi$
IjWj_YceZ[biceZ[bj^[fheXWX_b_joj^WjW]_l[djh[[_dj^[ZWjWXWi[[n^_X_ji
Wif[Y_\_YgkWb_joYbWiiehWif[Y_\_Yjof[e\ZWcW][$J^_ia_dZe\ceZ[b_id[[Z[Z
_\j^[_d_j_WbZWjWXWi[\hecm^_Y^j^[i_ckbWj_ediijWhjYedjW_dide_d\ehcWj_ed
WXekjij[cgkWb_joehZWcW][$?j_iWbied[[Z[Z\ehd[mjh[[i[dj[h_d]j^[ZWjW#
XWi[\hecceZ[biZ[iYh_X_d]_d]hemj^ehh[][d[hWj_ed$
J^[ZodWc_YceZ[bi]_l[j^[fheXWX_b_joj^WjWjh[[[n^_X_j_d]WY[hjW_dij[c
gkWb_joYbWiiehWY[hjW_dij[cZWcW][Wjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\W]hemj^f[h_eZY^Wd]#
[i_jifhef[hj_[iZkh_d]j^[d[nj]hemj^f[h_eZ$
8ej^jof[ie\ceZ[bi^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Z\hec7kijh_WdDWj_edWb<eh[ij?d#
l[djeho7D<?ZWjW<ehijb_Y^[8kdZ[il[hikY^iWdijWbj'/.'$
J^[ijWj_YceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[fheXWX_b_joj^WjWjh[[[n^_X_ji0
'$ WY[hjW_dij[cgkWb_joYbWiiZ[\_d[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[7D<?cWdkWb<ehijb_Y^[
8kdZ[il[hikY^iWdijWbj'/.'1
($ ZWcW][j^hek]^^Whl[ij_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]ef[hWj_edi1
)$ ZWcW][j^hek]^f[[b_d]Xoh[ZZ[[h1WdZ
*$ j^[fheXWX_b_joj^WjWjb[Wijed[jh[[edWiWcfb[fbej[n^_X_jiheYa\WbbZWc#
W][$
J^[ZodWc_YceZ[bifh[Z_Yjj^[fheXWX_b_joe\WY^Wd][_ded[e\j^[i[c[Wi#
kh[iZkh_d]W+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ$
J^[ lWh_WXb[i fhel_d] je X[ i_]d_\_YWdj _d j^[ ed[ eh ej^[h ceZ[b A3&$&+
WdZj^[jejWbfhefehj_ede\jh[[i[n^_X_j_d]ehX[_d]WbbeYWj[Zjeed[e\j^[WXel[
gkWb_joYbWii[iehZWcW][YbWii[iWh[]_l[d_dJWXb[i,$*WdZ,$+$?ji^ekbZX[dej#
[Zj^Wjj^[ZWcW][f[hY[djW][i]_l[d_dj^[jWXb[iWh[dejj^[ZWcW][f[hY[djW]#
[i\eh7kijh_WWiWm^eb[X[YWki[edboh[b[lWdjfbejim[h[_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[ceZ[bi$
<ehj^[ZodWc_YceZ[b\eh^Whl[ij_d]ZWcW]["\eh[nWcfb["edboj^ei[fbejim[h[
Yedi_Z[h[Z_dm^_Y^^Whl[ij_d]eYYkhh[Z_dj^[fh[l_eki]hemj^f[h_eZ$
È
3ENSITIVITYÈ!NALYSISÈOFÈTHEÈ$AMAGEÈANDÈ(ARVESTÈ-ODELS
J^[ iWcfb[ i_p[ WdZ j^[ fhefehj_ed e\ YWi[i _d m^_Y^ W if[Y_\_Y ZWcW][ eh
ij[cgkWb_jo_ih[YehZ[ZWh[WbmWoi^_]^[h_dj^[ijWj_YceZ[bij^Wd_dj^[ZodWc#
_YceZ[bi$J^[ijWj_ij_YWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi\eh]eeZd[iie\\_jm[h[WbmWoiX[jj[h_d
j^[ijWj_YceZ[bi$>em[l[h"ki_d]WijWj_YceZ[b"j^[_d_j_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\ij[c
Wjjh_Xkj[iYWddejX[jWa[d\hecj^[_dl[djeho_ji[b\"Xkj^WihWj^[hjeX[][d[hWj#
[ZXoceZ[bij^Wj[ij_cWj[j^[fheXWX_b_joe\j^[h[X[_d]WY[hjW_dij[cWjjh_Xkj[
_$[$gkWb_joehZWcW][YbWii$
?dYedjhWij"ZodWc_YceZ[bi"m^_Y^fh[Z_Yjj^[Y^Wd][_dgkWb_joehZWcW]["
Wbbemj^[i[jj_d]kfe\j^[_d_j_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\j^[ij[cWjjh_Xkj[i_dj^[_dl[d#
jeho"WdZj^[i[YWdj^[dX[Z[l[bef[Z\ehj^[ikXi[gk[dj]hemj^f[h_eZ$?jmWi
j^[h[\eh[d[Y[iiWhojeZ[j[hc_d[m^_Y^e\j^[i[ceZ[bifh[Z_Yj[Zh[Wb_joX[jj[h$
'(* #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
4ABLEÈÈ-ODELSÈTOÈPREDICTÈSTEMÈQUALITYÈ4ICKSÈINDICATEÈTHATÈTHEÈVARIABLEÈISÈSIGNIFICANTÈINÈTHEÈRE
SPECTIVEÈMODELÈDBHÈISÈBREAST
HEIGHTÈDIAMETERÈ0RESENCEÈOFÈDAMAGEÈISÈAÈDUMMYÈVARIABLEÈEQUALÈ
TOÈUNITYÈIFÈATÈTHEÈBEGINNINGÈOFÈTHEÈPERIODÈTHEREÈISÈDAMAGEÈTOÈONEÈOFÈTHEÈTREESÈINÈTHEÈPLOTÈBUTÈ
ISÈOTHERWISEÈZEROÈ##&ÈISÈTHEÈ+RAJICEKÈETÈALÈ ÈCROWNÈCOMPETITIONÈFACTORÈ.EWÈDAMAGEÈISÈAÈ
DUMMYÈVARIABLEÈINDICATINGÈWHETHERÈTHEÈTREEÈHASÈRECEIVEDÈNEWÈDAMAGEÈINÈONEÈOFÈTHEÈDAMAGEÈ
MODELS ÈORÈNOT
È 6ARIABLEÈ 3TEMÈQUALITY
È È 3TATICÈ $YNAMIC
)NDIVIDUALÈTREEÈ 3PECIESÈ ½
È DBHÈ ½
È 4REEÈHEIGHTÈ ½
È 0RESENCEÈOFÈDAMAGEÈ ½
È .EWÈDAMAGEÈ È
3TANDÈ %LEVATIONÈ ½
È ##&È ½
Jefhel_Z[Wd[nWcfb[e\j^[fheY[ii"j^[i[di_j_l_joWdWboi_i_iZ[cedijhWj[Z
\ehceZ[bih[fh[i[dj_d]^Whl[ij_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]ZWcW][$
:WjWe\j^[f[hcWd[dj\eh[ij_dl[djehoe\W\eh[ijcWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjIed#
d[dmWbZ_dkff[h7kijh_Wm[h[ki[Z\ehj^[i[j[ijhkdi$EbZ[hijWdZie\j^_i\eh#
[ijcWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjWh[cWdW][ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]
ioij[cH[_d_d][h'/.-"m^_b[_doekd][hijWdZiWijhkYjkhWbj^_dd_d]iWffheWY^
_iki[Z$J^[jmecWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[im[h[gkWdj_\_[Z\ehki[_dj^_iWdWboi_iXo
YWbYkbWj_d]j^[fhefehj_ede\h[cel[ZXWiWbWh[W_d\_l[h[bWj_l[ZX^YbWii[i"[WY^
e\ j^[c h[fh[i[dj_d] [gkWb XWiWb Wh[W$ J^[ h[celWbi m[h[ YWbYkbWj[Z i[fWhWj[bo
\ehijWdZiebZ[hj^Wd'&&o[WhiWdZ\ehj^[oekd][hed[i$J^hek]^j^_iWffheWY^"
j^[^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]_[iWffb_[Z_dj^[i_ckbWj_edhkdih[fh[i[dj[Zj^[^Whl[ij#
_d]ijhWj[]_[iWffb_[Z_dj^_icWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjZkh_d]j^[bWij'&o[Whi$Dej[
j^Wjj^[edboYh_j[h_W\ehh[cel_d]jh[[im[h[j^[h[bWj_l[Xh[Wij#^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[hi
e\j^[jh[[i_dj^[fbejWdZj^[W][ie\j^[ijWdZi$
Ki_d]j^[i[h[celWbf[hY[djW][i"\ekhZ_\\[h[dj+&#o[Whi_ckbWj_edhkdim[h[
f[h\ehc[Z$?dj^[\_hijiY[dWh_e"h[celWbim[h[YedZkYj[Z_]deh_d]ij[cZWcW][$
?dj^[i[YedZiY[dWh_e"j^[h[celWbim[h[XWi_YWbboj^[iWc[Wi_dj^[\_hijiY[#
dWh_e"_$[$_d[WY^ZX^YbWiij^[iWc[Wcekdje\XWiWbWh[WmWih[cel[Z1^em[l[h"
_dj^_iYWi[ZWcW][Zjh[[im[h[j^[fh[\[hh[ZjWh][j\eh^Whl[ij_d]$KdZWcW][Z
jh[[im[h[edboh[cel[Zm^[dj^[h[m[h[_dik\\_Y_[djZWcW][Zjh[[i_dW]_l[d
È #OMMERCIALÈ!SSORTMENTSÈANDÈ3TEMÈ1UALITY '(+
4ABLEÈÈ-ODELSÈTOÈPREDICTÈSTEMÈDAMAGEÈ4ICKSÈINDICATEÈTHATÈTHEÈVARIABLEÈISÈSIGNIFICANTÈINÈTHEÈ
RESPECTIVEÈMODELÈHDÈRATIOÈISÈTHEÈRATIOÈBETWEENÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈANDÈDBHÈ##&ÈISÈTHEÈ+RAJICEKÈETÈALÈ
ÈCROWNÈCOMPETITIONÈFACTORÈDGÈISÈTHEÈQUADRATICÈMEANÈDIAMETERÈH,ÈISÈ,OREYSÈMEANÈHEIGHTÈ
HDOMÈISÈTHEÈDOMINANTÈHEIGHTÈ'ROWTHÈCLASSÈ(ARVESTINGÈTYPEÈ2EDÈDEERÈDISPERSIONÈ!LLUVIALÈFORESTÈ
3OILÈTYPEÈ3LOPEÈPOSITIONÈ0ROTECTIONÈFORESTÈ3OILÈDEPTHÈANDÈ0REVIOUSÈDAMAGEÈAREÈDUMMYÈVARIABLESÈ
FORÈPLOTÈCHARACTERISTICSÈ3PECIESÈPROPORTIONÈISÈTHEÈPROPORTIONÈOFÈCONIFERS
4REEÈ 3PECIESÈ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
DBHÈ È ½ ½ ½ È È
È HDÈRATIO½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
3TANDÈ "ASALÈAREA½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È ##&½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È DG½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È H,½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È HDOM½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 'ROWTHÈCLASS½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 3PECIESÈPROPORTION½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
$AMAGEÈRISKÈ ,OGGINGÈDISTANCE½ ½ È È È È
È (ARVESTINGÈTYPE½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 2EMOVEDÈBASALÈAREA½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 2EDÈDEERÈDISPERSION½½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È %LEVATION½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È !LLUVIALÈFOREST½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 3LOPE½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 3OILÈTYPE½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 3LOPEÈPOSITION½ ½ ½ ½ ½
'(, #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
4ABLEÈÈ#ONTINUED
È 0ROTECTIONÈFOREST½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 3OILÈDEPTH½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È 0REVIOUSÈDAMAGE½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½
È .UMBERÈ
È OFÈOBSERVATIONSÈ È È È È È
ZX^YbWiijecWa[feii_Xb[h[celWbe\j^[iWc[dkcX[he\jh[[iWi\ehj^[\_hij
iY[dWh_e$<eh[WY^e\j^[i[jmejof[ie\^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]_[i"Xej^j^[ijWj_YWdZ
ZodWc_YceZ[bim[h[ki[Zjefh[Z_Yj^Whl[ij_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]ZWcW][<_]$,$-$
?jYWdX[i[[dj^Wj"_d][d[hWb"j^[ijWj_YceZ[bel[h[ij_cWj[ij^[f[hY[djW][
i^Wh[e\ZWcW][Zjh[[i((l[hiki.1j^_i_iWh[ikbje\_jidej^Wl_d]X[[di[j
kfki_d]WYjkWbboeXi[hl[Z_d_j_WbZWcW][Z_ijh_Xkj_edi$Ceh[_cfehjWdjbo"i_dY[
&IGÈÈ$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈÈ
PREDICTEDÈPROPORTIONÈ ÈOFÈ
VOLUMEÈEXHIBITINGÈHARVESTINGÈ
ANDÈSKIDDINGÈDAMAGEÈINÈÈ
3ONNENWALDÈ4HEÈSCENARIOSÈÈ
WEREÈCALCULATEDÈUSINGÈTHEÈ
STATICÈDAMAGEÈMODULEÈLEFT È
ANDÈDYNAMICÈDAMAGEÈMODULEÈ
RIGHT ÈIMPLEMENTEDÈINÈTHEÈIN
DIVIDUAL
TREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ
0ROGN!US
2EFERENCES '(-
j^[fhefehj_ede\jh[[im_j^^Whl[ij_d]ZWcW][Ze[idejlWhockY^X[jm[[dj^[
jmeiY[dWh_ei_$[$j^[ed[_dm^_Y^ZWcW][Zjh[[iWh[i[b[Yj[Z\eh^Whl[ij_d]WdZ
j^Wj_dm^_Y^ZWcW][_i_]deh[Z"_j_ickY^b[iii[di_j_l[jej^[^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj#
[]oj^Wjfh[\[h[dj_Wbboi[b[YjiZWcW][Zjh[[i\ehh[celWb$
J^ki_j_iYb[Whj^WjÄ_\_jm[h[[l[hfeii_Xb[jeWffboj^_ijof[e\WffheWY^Ä
j^[ZodWc_YceZ[biWh[j^[ed[ij^Wji^ekbZX[ki[Z"X[YWki[edboj^[oWh[i[d#
i_j_l[jeh[if[Yj_l[jh[Wjc[dji$
2EFERENCES
!BETZÈ 0È È %INEÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSHILFEÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ $URCHFORSTUNGÈ VONÈ &ICHTENBESTËNDENÈ !LLGÈ
&ORSTZÈn
!LBERTÈ-È È'ENERATINGÈMANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈFORÈMULTI
SPECIESÈSTANDSÈUSINGÈDECISIONÈ
SUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ"7).0ROÈ)NÈ'ADOWÈ+È.AGELÈ*È3ABOROWSKIÈ*ÈEDS È-ANAGINGÈFORESTÈECO
SYSTEMSÈ CONTINUOUSÈ COVERÈ FORESTRYÈ ASSESSMENTÈ ANALYSISÈ SCENARIOSÈ +LUWERÈ $ORDRECHTÈ
PPÈn
!LBERTÈ-È'UERICKEÈ-È È:URÈ0ROGNOSEÈWALDBAULICHERÈ"EHANDLUNGSVARIANTENÈINÈ-ISCHBE
STËNDENÈMITÈEINZELBAUM
BASIERTENÈ$URCHFORSTUNGSMODELLENÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈ n
!SSMANNÈ%È È4HEÈPRINCIPLESÈOFÈFORESTÈYIELDÈSTUDYÈ0ERGAMONÈ0RESSÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
"ITTERLICHÈ7È È$IEÈ7INKELZËHLPROBEÈ!LLGEÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZWIRTSCHÈ7IENÈn
#LARKÈ!È-C!LISTERÈ2(È È6ISUALÈTREEÈGRADINGÈSYSTEMSÈFORÈESTIMATINGÈLUMBERÈYIELDSÈINÈYOUNGÈ
ANDÈMATUREÈSOUTHERNÈPINEÈ&ORÈ0RODÈ*È n
$AUMEÈ 3È 2OBERTSONÈ $È È !È HEURISTICÈ APPROACHÈ TOÈ MODELLINGÈ THINNINGSÈ 3ILVAÈ &ENNÈ
n
$EÈ ,IOCOURTÈ &È È $EÈ LAMÏNAGEMENTÈ DESÈ SAPINIERESÈ "ULLÈ 3OCÈ &RANCHE
#OMTÏÈ ETÈ "ELFORTÈ
n
%CKMàLLNERÈ/È È%INÈ3TICHPROBEVERFAHRENÈZURÈ"ESTIMMUNGÈDERÈ"ENADELUNGÈhGESUNDERvÈUNDÈ
hKRANKERvÈ"ËUMEÈ-ITTÈ&"6!È"ADEN
7àRTTEMBERGÈn
%CKMàLLNERÈ/È È$URCHFORSTENÈAMÈ"ILDSCHIRMÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ
%CKMàLLNERÈ/È3TERBAÈ(È È%RWEITERTEÈ%INZELSTAMMSORTENTAFELÈFàRÈ&ICHTEÈ«STERREICHISCHESÈ
&/234
*AHRBUCHÈÈ«STERREICHISCHERÈ!GRARVERLAGÈ7IENÈPPÈn
&ORSTLICHEÈ"UNDESVERSUCHSANSTALTÈ È)NSTRUKTIONENÈFàRÈDIEÈ&ELDARBEITÈDERÈ«STERREICHISCHENÈ
&ORSTINVENTURÈnÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ"UNDESVERSUCHSANSTALTÈ7IENÈÈPP
(ASENAUERÈ (È È %INÈ %INZELBAUMWACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈ FàRÈ UNGLEICHALTRIGEÈ &ICHTEN
+IEFERN
È
UNDÈ "UCHEN
&ICHTENMISCH
BESTËNDEÈ &ORSTLÈ 3CHRIFTENREIHEÈ 5NIVÈ "ODENKULTURÈ 7IENÈ È
ÈPP
(ASENAUERÈ(È-ONSERUDÈ2!È È!ÈCROWNÈRATIOÈMODELÈFORÈ!USTRIANÈFORESTSÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ
n
*OHANNÈ+È È$ERÈ!
7ERTÈnÈEINÈOBJEKTIVERÈ0ARAMETERÈZURÈ"ESTIMMUNGÈDERÈ&REISTELLUNGSSTËRKEÈ
VONÈ:ENTRALBËUMENÈ3EKTIONÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈ$6&&6!È7EIBERSBRUNNÈPPÈn
+AHNÈ -È A È $IEÈ &UZZYÈ ,OGIKÈ BASIERTEÈ -ODELLIERUNGÈ VONÈ $URCHFORSTUNGSEINGRIFFENÈ !LLGÈ
&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈn
+AHNÈ-ÈB È2ULEÈBASEDÈMODELLINGÈOFÈTHINNINGÈREGIMESÈFORÈAÈDISTANCEÈDEPENDENTÈSINGLEÈTREEÈ
GROWTHÈSIMULATORÈBYÈIMPLEMENTINGÈAÈFUZZYÈLOGICÈCONTROLLERÈ)NÈ3KOVSGAARDÈ*0È"URKHARTÈ(%È
EDS È0ROCÈTHÈ)5&2/È7ORLDÈ#ONGRÈ4AMPEREÈ&INLANDÈ3ÈÈPPÈn
'(. #(!04%2È >Whl[ij_d]Hkb[iWdZCeZkb[i
+AHNÈ-È È/PTIMIERUNGÈEINESÈHOCHPARAMETRISIERTENÈ&UZZYÈ2EGELSYSTEMSÈMITÈEVOLUTIONËRENÈ
!LGORITHMENÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈn
+AHNÈ-È0RETZSCHÈ(È È$ASÈ7UCHSMODELLÈ3ILVAÈnÈ0ARAMETRISIERUNGÈDERÈ6ERSIONÈÈFàRÈ2EIN
È
UNDÈ-ISCHBESTËNDEÈAUSÈ&ICHTEÈUNDÈ"UCHEÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈn
+RAJICEKÈ*%È"RINKMANNÈ+%È'INGRICHÈ3&È È#ROWNÈCOMPETITIONÈnÈAÈMEASUREÈOFÈDENSITYÈ&ORÈ
3CIÈn
+ILKKIÈ0È6ARMOLAÈ-È È!ÈNONLINEARÈSIMULTANEOUSÈEQUATIONÈMODELÈTOÈDETERMINEÈTAPERÈCURVEÈ
3ILVAÈ&ENNÈn
+LEINEÈ-È È3ORTENTAFELNÈFàRÈ"UCHEÈINÈ«STERREICHÈ#ENTRALBALÈ'ESÈ&ORSTWESENÈn
+UBLINÈ %È 3CHARNAGELÈ 'È È 6ERFAHRENS
È UNDÈ 0ROGRAMMBESCHREIBUNGÈ ZUMÈ "7)
5NTERPRO
GRAMMÈ"$!4È&ORSTLICHEÈ6ERSUCHS
ÈUNDÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTÈ"ADEN
7àRTTEMBERGÈ!BSCHLU
BERICHTÈ ZUMÈ &ORSCHUNGSAUFTRAGÈ h"IOMETRISCHEÈ ,ÚSUNGENÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ "ERECHNUNGÈ DESÈ 6OLU
MENSÈ DERÈ 3ORTIERUNGÈ DERÈ 2INDENABZàGEÈ UNDÈ DERÈ %RNTEVERLUSTEÈ IMÈ 2AHMENÈ DERÈ "UNDES
WALDINVENTURvÈ&REIBURG"RÈÈPP
,AASASENAHOÈ*È È4APERÈCURVEÈANDÈVOLUMEÈFUNCTIONSÈFORÈPINEÈSPRUCEÈANDÈBIRCHÈ#OMMUNÈ
)NSTÈ&ORÈ&ENNÈÈÈPP
,APPIÈ*È È-IXEDÈLINEARÈMODELSÈFORÈANALYZINGÈANDÈPREDICTINGÈSTEMÈFORMÈVARIATIONÈOFÈ3COTSÈ
PINEÈ#OMMÈ)NSTÈ&ORÈ&ENNÈÈÈPP
,EDERMANNÈ 4È È 0ROGRAMMDOKUMENTATIONÈ UNDÈ STANDARDISIERTEÈ "ESCHREIBUNGÈ DESÈ 7ALD
WACHSTUMSSIMULATORSÈ02/'.!53È&ORSCHUNGSBERICHTÈIMÈ!UFTRAGÈDERÈ$'È&ORSCHUNGÈ%#ÈÈ
20È1UALITYÈOFÈ,IFEÈANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈOFÈ,IVINGÈ2ESOURCES È7IENÈÈPP
,EDERMANNÈ4È È5SINGÈLOGISTICÈREGRESSIONÈTOÈMODELÈTREEÈSELECTIONÈPREFERENCESÈFORÈHARVES
TINGÈINÈFORESTSÈINÈCONVERSIONÈ)NÈVONÈ'ADOWÈ+È.AGELÈ*È3ABOROWSKIÈ*ÈEDS È#ONTINUOUSÈCOVERÈ
FORESTRYÈ!SSESSMENTÈANALYSISÈSCENARIOSÈ+LUWERÈ$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
,OAGUEÈ +È 'REENÈ 2%È È 3TATISTICALÈ ANDÈ GRAPHICALÈ METHODSÈ FORÈ EVALUATINGÈ SOLUTEÈ TRANSPORTÈ
MODELSÈOVERVIEWÈANDÈAPPLICATIONÈ*È#ONTAMÈ(YDROLÈn
-ECKOÈ*È0ETRÉÝÈ2È.OCIARÈ6È È#ONSTRUCTIONÈOFÈNEWÈTREEÈASSORTMENTÈTABLESÈFORÈLARCHÈHORN
BEAMÈANDÈBIRCHÈ,ESNȽASÈ&ORÈ*È n
.AGELÈ*È È!NWENDUNGSPROGRAMMÈZURÈ"ESTANDESBEWERTUNGÈUNDÈZURÈ0ROGNOSEÈDERÈ"ESTAN
DESENTWICKLUNGÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈn
.AGELÈ *È È +ONZEPTIONELLEÈ ¯BERLEGUNGENÈ ZUMÈ SCHRITTWEISENÈ !UFBAUÈ EINESÈ WALDWACHS
TUMSKUNDLICHENÈ3IMULATIONS
SYSTEMSÈFàRÈ.ORDWESTDEUTSCHLANDÈ3CHRIFTENÈ&ORSTLÈ&AKÈ5NIVÈ
'ÚTTINGENÈÈÈPP
0AINÈ/È"OYERÈ%È È!ÈWHOLEÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELÈFORÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈ)NÈ.%06%5È'È
ED È0ROCÈNDÈ7ORKSHÈ#ONNECTIONÈ"ETWEENÈ3ILVICULTUREÈANDÈ7OODÈ1UALITYÈ4HROUGHÈ-ODEL
LINGÈ!PPROACHESÈANDÈ3IMULATIONÈ3OFTWARESÈnÈ!UGÈ"ERG
EN
$ALÈ+RUGERÈ.ATIONALÈ0ARKÈ
3OUTHÈ!FRICAÈ0UBLICATIONÈ%QUIPEÈDEÈ2ECHERCHESÈSURÈLAÈ1UALITÏÈDESÈ"OISÈÈ).2!
.ANCYÈ
&RANCEÈPPÈn
0ETRÉÝÈ2È È-ATHEMATICALÈMODELÈOFÈASSORTMENTÈTABLESÈFORÈTHEÈMAINÈTREEÈSPECIESÈ,ESNȽASÈ
&ORÈ*È n
0RETZSCHÈ(È"IBERÈ0È$URSKâÈ*È È4HEÈSINGLEÈTREE
BASEDÈSTANDÈSIMULATORÈ3),6!ÈCONSTRUCTIONÈ
APPLICATIONÈANDÈEVALUATIONÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
0UKKALAÈ 4È -IINAÈ *È È !È METHODÈ FORÈ STOCHASTICÈ MULTIOBJECTIVEÈ OPTIMIZATIONÈ OFÈ STANDÈ
MANAGEMENTÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
2EININGERÈ (È È :IELSTËRKEN
.UTZUNGÈ ODERÈ DIEÈ 0LENTERUNGÈ DESÈ !LTERSKLASSENWALDESÈ «STER
REICHISCHERÈ!GRARVERLAGÈ7IENÈÈPP
2EFERENCES '(/
!PPLICATIONSÈOFÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELLINGÈÈ
INÈ$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈÈ
FORÈ3USTAINABLEÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENT
>WdiFh[jpiY^'">[_dpKjiY^_]("HW_d[hIeZja[)
!BSTRACTÈ-ULTI
FUNCTIONALÈSILVICULTUREÈANDÈSUSTAINABLEÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈINÈ%UROPEÈWASÈ
RECENTLYÈ DEFINEDÈ BYÈ THEÈ (ELSINKIÈ 2ESOLUTIONÈ (È -#0&%È È 3USTAINABLEÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ
3$ È ISÈ ASSOCIATEDÈ WITHÈ ABANDONINGÈ THEÈ CONCEPTÈ OFÈ EVEN
AGEDÈ FORESTSÈ )NÈ VIEWÈ OFÈ THISÈ
EXTENDEDÈ3$ÈPERCEPTIONÈTHEÈCONVENTIONALÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈPROCEDUREÈHASÈTOÈBEÈREVISEDÈ"YÈ
RELYINGÈONÈYIELDÈTABLESÈANDÈTHEÈMODELÈOFÈNORMATIVEÈFORESTSÈATÈTHEÈOVERALLÈENTERPRISEÈPLAN
NINGÈLEVELÈTHEÈCONVENTIONALÈRESULTSÈBECOMEÈINCREASINGLYÈIRRELEVANTÈINÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈ
3UCHÈ OUTDATEDÈ PLANNINGÈ TOOLSÈ DOÈ NOTÈ PROVIDEÈ THEÈ INFORMATIONÈ NEEDEDÈ FORÈ MULTI
CRITERIAÈ
STRATEGICÈPLANNINGÈ-ODERNÈSTRATEGICÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈANDÈDECISION
MAKINGÈREQUIREÈAPPRO
PRIATEÈTOOLSÈANDÈTECHNOLOGIESÈSUCHÈASÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈEVALUATIONÈANDÈOPTIMISA
TIONÈ ALGORITHMSÈ GEOGRAPHICALÈ INFORMATIONÈ SYSTEMSÈ SAMPLE
PLOTÈ DATAÈ ANDÈ VISUALISATIONÈ
ROUTINESÈMOSTÈOFÈWHICHÈAREÈSUPPLIEDÈBYÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈSCIENCEÈ4HEÈMAINÈASPECTÈ
ISÈ TOÈ COMBINEÈ THESEÈ TOOLSÈ ANDÈ INTEGRATEÈ THEMÈ INTOÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMSÈ SUPPORTINGÈ
THEÈPLANNINGÈANDÈDECISIONÈPROCESSESÈATÈTHEÈENTERPRISEÈLEVELÈ)NÈPARTICULARÈTHEÈAPPLICATIONÈOFÈ
FORESTÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈWILLÈENABLEÈANÈIMPROVEDÈ3$ÈEVALUATIONÈANDÈAÈMOREÈFLEXIBLEÈADJUST
MENTÈBETWEENÈSINGLEÈSTANDÈANDÈTOTALÈESTATEÈPLANNINGÈ3IMULATIONÈMODELSÈCANÈREPLACEÈCOM
MONÈINDICATORSÈWITHÈAGGREGATEDÈDYNAMICÈLONG
TERMÈINDICATORSÈ-ANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈ
CANÈBEÈANALYSEDÈWITHÈREGARDÈTOÈTHEIRÈESTATE
REFERRINGÈANDÈLONG
TERMÈCONSEQUENCESÈ)NÈTHISÈ
CHAPTERÈWEÈWILLÈPOINTÈOUTÈ ÈHOWÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈANDÈDECISION
MAKINGÈCANÈEVOLVEÈFROMÈ
MONITORINGÈ FORESTÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ TOÈ STRATEGICÈ PLANNINGÈ È HOWÈ THEÈ 0AN
%UROPEANÈ CRITERIAÈ
CANÈBEÈUSEDÈFORÈMONITORINGÈANDÈSTRATEGICÈPLANNINGÈOFÈ3$ÈATÈESTATEÈLEVELÈ ÈHOWÈAVAILABLEÈ
FORESTÈPLANNINGÈDATAÈCANÈBEÈBESTÈUTILISEDÈFORÈTHEÈPLANNINGÈPROCESSÈANDÈ ÈWHATÈCOULDÈBEÈ
CONTRIBUTEDÈBYÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈSCIENCEÈTOÈDEVELOPINGÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMSÈFORÈ
MULTI
CRITERIAÈFORESTÈENTERPRISEÈPLANNING
'"( 9^W_h e\ <eh[ij O_[bZ IY_[dY[" J[Y^d_iY^[ Kd_l[hi_jj CdY^[d" 7c >eY^Wd][h ')" .+)+*
<h[_i_d]"=[hcWdo
) H[i[WhY^9[djh[e\8_ej[Y^debe]o"IeY_[joWdZ;dl_hedc[dj"Kd_l[hi_joe\>WcXkh]"E^d#
^ehijijh$'."((,&/>WcXkh]"=[hcWdo
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
')( #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
È
)NTRODUCTION
<ehWbceij)&&o[Whi"ehZ_dWho\eh[ijho^WiX[[dWhhWd][ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[Z[#
cWdZie\ikijW_dWX_b_jo[$]$led9Whbem_jp'-')1>kdZ[i^W][d'.(,$J^[ceZ#
[hdf[hY[fj_ede\ckbj_#\kdYj_edWbi_bl_Ykbjkh[_ih[\b[Yj[Z_dj^[>[bi_da_H[ie#
bkj_ed>'C9F<;'//)"f$'"_dm^_Y^ikijW_dWXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj_iZ[\_d[Z
Wi0ÆJ^[ij[mWhZi^_fWdZki[e\\eh[ijiWdZ\eh[ijbWdZi_dWmWo"WdZWjWhWj["j^Wj
cW_djW_dij^[_hX_eZ_l[hi_jo"fheZkYj_l_jo"h[][d[hWj_edYWfWY_jo"l_jWb_joWdZj^[_h
fej[dj_Wbje\kb\_b"demWdZ_dj^[\kjkh["h[b[lWdj[Yebe]_YWb"[Yedec_YWdZieY_Wb
\kdYj_edi"WjbeYWb"dWj_edWb"WdZ]beXWbb[l[bi"WdZj^WjZe[idejYWki[ZWcW][je
ej^[h [Yeioij[ciÇ$ J^[ i_n FWd#;khef[Wd Yh_j[h_W WdZ _dZ_YWjehi e\ ikijW_dWXb[
\eh[ijcWdW][c[djJWXb[-$'d[]ej_Wj[ZWjj^[B_iXedH[iebkj_edB(i^ekbZikf#
fehjj^[Yel[hW][e\ikijW_dWX_b_joWdZj^[_hef[hWj_edWb_cfb[c[djWj_edC9F<;
'//)$?dl_[me\j^_i[nj[dZ[Zf[hY[fj_ede\ikijW_dWXb[Z[l[befc[djI:"m^_Y^
_iWiieY_Wj[Zm_j^WXWdZed_d]j^[YedY[fje\[l[d#W][Z\eh[iji"j^[Yedl[dj_ed#
WbfheY[Zkh[e\\eh[ijfbWdd_d]^WijeX[h[l_i[Z>Wd[m_da[b(&&'1If[bbcWdd
[jWb$(&&'1led=WZem(&&)$?dYh[Wi_d]bo"_jiki[\kbd[ii_ih[ijh_Yj[ZXo0'Z[\_#
Y_[dj\b[n_X_b_jo_dj[hcie\ijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]"(Wb_c_j[ZWffb_YWX_b_jo\ehkd[#
l[d#W][Z\eh[ijiWdZlWh_WXb[cWdW][c[djfheY[Zkh[i"WdZ)_dik\\_Y_[dj_dj[#
]hWj_ede\j^ei[i_bl_YkbjkhWb\kdYj_edij^Wj[nY[[Zj_cX[hfheZkYj_ed$Ki_d]o_[bZ
jWXb[iWdZj^[ceZ[be\dehcWj_l[\eh[ijijec[Wikh[\eh[ij]hemj^Wjj^[el[hWbb
[dj[hfh_i[fbWdd_d]b[l[b_iX[Yec_d]_dYh[Wi_d]boekjZWj[Z$J^[i[fbWdd_d]jeebi
Zedejfhel_Z[j^[_d\ehcWj_edd[[Z[Z\ehckbj_#Yh_j[h_WfbWdd_d]$Edj^[ej^[h
4ABLEÈÈ0AN
%UROPEANÈCRITERIAÈnÈANDÈCORRESPONDINGÈINDICATORSÈFORÈSUSTAINABLEÈFORESTÈDE
VELOPMENTÈ!DAPTEDÈFROMÈ-#0&%È
#RITERIAÈ )NDICATORSÈEXAMPLES
È&ORESTÈECOSYSTEMÈ
HEALTHÈANDÈVITALITYÈ #HEMICALÈSOILÈSTATEÈDEFOLIATIONÈDEPOSITIONÈOFÈ
È NUTRIENTSPOLLUTANTSÈ
^WdZ"WfWhj\heciWcfb[fbeji"i_j[YbWii_\_YWj_ed"[jY$"_d\ehcWj_ed_iWlW_bWXb[j^Wj
_iXWh[bokj_b_i[ZXoj^[Yedl[dj_edWb\eh[ijfbWdd_d]fheY[Zkh[$
CeZ[hd ijhWj[]_Y \eh[ij fbWdd_d] WdZ Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d] h[gk_h[ Wffhefh_Wj[
jeebiWdZj[Y^debe]_[ifWhj_Wbboikffb_[ZXo\eh[ij]hemj^WdZo_[bZiY_[dY[$<eh
ki" j^[ cW_d Wif[Yj _i je YecX_d[ j^[ \eh[ij ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi m_j^ [lWbkWj_ed
WdZefj_c_iWj_edWb]eh_j^ci"][e]hWf^_YWb_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci"iWcfb[#fbejZW#
jWehl_ikWb_iWj_edhekj_d[iWdZ_dj[]hWj[j^[c_djeZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ciikf#
fehj_d]j^[fbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_edfheY[ii[iWjj^[[dj[hfh_i[b[l[b$7ffb_YWj_edi
e\j^[i[c[j^eZiWdZj[Y^debe]_[iÄWdZZ[Wb_d]m_j^j^[fheXb[ci_dj^[fbWd#
d_d]fheY[iiÄ]_l[jhWdifWh[dYojej^[Z[Y_i_edfWj^mWoi"[dWXb[fWhj_Y_fWj_ed
WdZd[]ej_Wj_edm_j^feb_j_Y_WdiWdZj^[h[\eh[fWl[j^[mWo\ehWijhWj[]_Y]eWb#
eh_[djWj[Z\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[cWdW][c[dj$
J^_iY^Wfj[h^_]^b_]^ji^em\eh[ijfbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]cWo[lebl[
\hecced_jeh_d]\eh[ijZ[l[befc[djjeijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]"^emj^[FWd#;khef[#
WdYh_j[h_WYWdX[ki[Z\ehced_jeh_d]WdZijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]e\I:Wj[ijWj[b[l[b"
^emWlW_bWXb[\eh[ijfbWdd_d]ZWjWc_]^jX[X[ijkj_b_i[Z\ehj^[fbWdd_d]fheY[ii"
WdZm^WjYWdX[Yedjh_Xkj[ZXo\eh[ij]hemj^WdZo_[bZiY_[dY[jeZ[l[bef_d]Z[#
Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci\ehckbj_#Yh_j[h_W\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[fbWdd_d]$
È
3ETTINGÈTHEÈ3TAGEÈnÈ$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMSÈANDÈ4REEÈ
'ROWTHÈ-ODELSÈFORÈ3TRATEGICÈ&ORESTÈ%NTERPRISEÈ0LANNING
È
$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMS
IjhWj[]_Y \eh[ij [dj[hfh_i[ fbWdd_d] Zk[ je ckbj_fb[ fbWdd_d] eX`[Yj_l[i _i W
jof_YWb\_[bZe\Wffb_YWj_ed\ehZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci:IIm_j^cWdoYec#
fb[n WdZ kdijhkYjkh[Z fheXb[ci 8edYp[a [j Wb$ '/.'$ 7 :II je ikffehj ikY^
fbWdd_d]Z[Y_i_ediYWdX[ijhkYjkh[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[j^[ehoe\WhWj_edWbeX`[Y#
j_l[#eh_[djWj[ZZ[Y_i_ed8WcX[h]WdZ9e[d[dX[h](&&($J^[h[\eh["_jm_bbX[Z[#
i_]d[Zje[lWbkWj[Wi[je\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWim[bbWi_dj[]hWj#
_d]ckbj_fb[fbWdd_d]eX`[Yj_l[i"Xoj^[\kb\_bc[dje\m^_Y^j^[cWdW][c[djWb#
j[hdWj_l[im_bbX[Wii[ii[ZIeZja[(&&)$:IIWh[Z[\_d[ZWiioij[cikj_b_i_d]ZW#
jWWdZceZkbWhbo_dj[]hWj_d]i[l[hWbceZ[biWdZc[j^eZ_YWbYecfed[dji\ehj^[
Z_\\[h[djjWiaie\fheXb[ciebkj_edWdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d][$]$JkhXWd'//&1@Wdi#
i[d'//(1HWkiY^[h'///$CWdojeebiWdZj[Y^debe]_[iWh[WlW_bWXb[jeikffehj
Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d] Wj [ijWj[ b[l[b" ceij e\ m^_Y^ Wh[ ikffb_[Z Xo \eh[ij o_[bZ WdZ
]hemj^iY_[dY[$;nWcfb[i_dYbkZ[\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehi"\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW#
XWi[i"][e]hWf^_YWb_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci=?I"l_ikWb_iWj_edioij[ciWdZ[lWbk#
Wj_edWdZefj_c_iWj_edWb]eh_j^ciIeZja[[jWb$(&&*$<eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehi
i[hl[\ehhkdd_d]iY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edi"\ehWdWboi_d]j^[bed]#j[hcYedi[gk[dY#
[ie\cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i"WdZ\ehiYWb_d]j^[h[ikbjiWjZ_\\[h[djifWj_WbWdZ
j[cfehWb b[l[bi$ =?I WdZ l_ikWb_iWj_ed hekj_d[i _bbkijhWj[ j^[i[ Yedi[gk[dY[i ed
ijWdZWdZbWdZiYWf[ZodWc_YiWdZfWl[j^[mWo\ehfWhj_Y_fWj_l[fbWdd_d]$M_j^
')* #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
j^[ki[e\[lWbkWj_edceZ[bi"i_ckbWj_edh[ikbjiYWdX[ijhkYjkh[Z"[lWbkWj[ZWdZ
fWii[Z ed je j^[ Z[Y_i_ed fheY[ii0 Z_\\[h[dj fbWdd[hiÉ eX`[Yj_l[i WdZ fh_eh_j_[i
b[WZ_d]jeZ_\\[h_d]lWbkWj_edie\j^[iWc[ijWj[iWdZcWdW][c[djWYj_ediYWdX[
h[l[Wb[Z"WdZckbj_#Yh_j[h_W\kdYj_edWbWdZi[di_j_l_joWdWboi[iYWdX[YedZkYj[Z$
7bbj^[i[jeebii^ekbZX[YecX_d[Zje\ehcYecfh[^[di_l[:II\ehj^[fkhfei[i
e\ijhWj[]_Y\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[fbWdd_d]$
È
%NTERPRISEÈ3IMULATIONÈASÈTHEÈ"ACKBONEÈOFÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING
I_ckbWj_ed ceZ[bi fhec_i[ Wd _cfhel[Z [lWbkWj_ed e\ I: WdZ W ceh[ \b[n#
_Xb[WZ`kijc[djX[jm[[di_d]b[ijWdZWdZjejWb[ijWj[fbWdd_d]$?dj^[YWi[e\W
fWhj_YkbWheX`[Yj_l["j^[ocWoikffehj_Z[dj_\o_d]j^[efj_ckccWdW][c[djWb#
j[hdWj_l[$Fhel_Z[Zj^Wj]hemj^ceZ[biWh[Wffb_YWXb[\ehijWdZie\Z_l[hi[c_n#
jkh[WdZW][ijhkYjkh[Wim[bbWi\ehi_ckbWj_d]h[Wb_ij_Y]hemj^ZodWc_Yi\ehW
m_Z[ hWd][ e\ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i" j^[o c_]^j h[fbWY[ j^[ Yecced Wh[W#
if[Y_\_Y eh lebkc[#if[Y_\_Y _dZ_YWjehi \eh c[Wikh_d] j^[ WddkWb \[bb_d] lebkc[$
J^[i[ _dZ_YWjehi bei[ i_]d_\_YWdY[ _d WXWdZed_d] j^[ YedY[fj e\ [l[d#W][Z \eh#
[iji1[gkWj_ed#XWi[Z_dZ_YWjehiZeiem^[dc[Wikh[Z]hemj^hWj[iZ[l_Wj[\hec
[nf[Yj[Z lWbk[i e\ o_[bZ jWXb[i$ ?d YedjhWij" i_ckbWj_ed hkdi m_j^ ]hemj^ ceZ#
[bi cWo h[fbWY[ Yecced _dZ_YWjehi _d W]]h[]Wj_d] bed]#j[hc ]hemj^ ZodWc_Yi
YWki[ZXoZ[\_d[ZcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[iWjijWdZWdZijhWjkcb[l[bWdZjhWdi#
\[h j^[c je [ijWj[ b[l[b$ CeZ[bi Z_h[Yjbo h[jkhd bed]#j[hc ZodWc_Yi e\ ]hem_d]
ijeYa"_dYh[c[dj"fhef[hjolWbk["\_dWdY_Wbh[jkhd"ijhkYjkhWb_dZ_Y[i"Z_l[hi_joe\
jh[[if[Y_[i"[jY$I:_dZ_YWjehiXWi[Zedj^[ceZ[be\dehcWj_l[\eh[ijieho_[bZ
jWXb[iX[Yec[h[ZkdZWdj$
J^[WZlWdjW][e\[dj[hfh_i[i_ckbWj_edhkdif[h\ehc[ZXo]hemj^ceZ[bi_d
\WYj b_[i _d _ji _cfhel[Z fbWdd_d] \b[n_X_b_jo0 kdZ[i_h[Z ZodWc_Yi Wj [ijWj[ b[l[b
YWdX[_Z[dj_\_[ZWdZYehh[Yj[ZXoWY^Wd][ZfbWdd_d]fheY[Zkh[WjijWdZeh[i#
jWj[b[l[b$J^[h[Ykhi_l[fheY[Zkh[If[_Z[b'/-("f$',(ijh_l[i\ehÄÆYehh[Yj_edi
Wh[h[f[Wj[ZWibed]WiWYedl[d_[djWZ`kijc[djX[jm[[di_d]kbWhWdZjejWbfbWd#
d_d]_iWjjW_d[ZÇÄ^Wifhel[djeX[[bWXehWj["bWXekh[ZWdZXWh[bo\[Wi_Xb[m_j^
fbWdd_d]e\ikijW_dWXb[j_cX[hfheZkYj_ed_d[l[d#W][Z\eh[iji$?dkd[l[d#W][Z
\eh[iji m_j^ W m_Z[h hWd][ e\ cWdW][c[dj ceZ[bi WdZ I: Yh_j[h_W" W h[Ykhi_l[
fheY[Zkh[_iedbofeii_Xb[m_j^ikffehje\i_ckbWj_edceZ[bi$
È &ROMÈ-ONITORINGÈ&ORESTÈ$EVELOPMENTÈTOÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING ')+
È
&ROMÈ-ONITORINGÈ&ORESTÈ$EVELOPMENTÈ
TOÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING
È
-ONITORING
J^[Yh_j[h_Wl[h_\o_d]ikijW_dWXb[\eh[ijZ[l[befc[djÄd[]ej_Wj[ZWjj^[;k#
hef[Wdb[l[bC9F<;'//)ÄWh[Y^WhWYj[h_i[ZgkWdj_jWj_l[boXoWiieY_Wj[Z_dZ_#
YWjehiW_c_d]WjWfhWYj_YWbWffb_YWj_ed\hec\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[jej^[dWj_edWbb[l#
[b If[bbcWdd (&&)$ ?dZ_YWjehi ikY^ Wi Z_l[hi_jo e\ jh[[ if[Y_[i" eh_[djWj_ed Xo
dWjkh["fhefehj_ede\Z[WZmeeZm_j^_dj^[ijWdZ_d]ehbo_d]ijeYa"WdZl[hj_YWb
ijWdZijhkYjkh[^Wl[jeX[Z[ZkY[Z\hec\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[i$J^[oYWd"\eh[nWc#
fb["X[ki[ZjeZ[j[hc_d[j^[Yh_j[h_edÈX_eZ_l[hi_joÉ$
<ehZ[h_l_d]_dZ_YWjehiWdZZ[j[hc_d_d]j^[YWjWbe]k[e\Yh_j[h_W"WbWh][lW#
h_[joe\iekhY[ie\_d\ehcWj_edWh[WlW_bWXb[$<ehj^_i"_dl[djeh_[ie\\eh[ij[dj[h#
fh_i[fbWdd_d]"YedijWdj[Yebe]_YWbced_jeh_d]fbeji"cWfie\ie_bWdZi_j[Y^Wh#
WYj[h_ij_Yi"WdZ_cc_ii_edbeWZcWfiWh[l[hoh[l[Wb_d]iekhY[i$>Wl_d]Yebb[Yj#
[Zj^_i_d\ehcWj_ed"Wckbj_#Yh_j[h_W_cfh[ii_ede\\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[Z[l[befc[dj
[lebl[i$ <eh [nWcfb[" fh[l_eki Z[l[befc[dj YWd X[ YecfWh[Z m_j^ j^[ [dj[h#
fh_i[ÉifbWdd_d]eX`[Yj_l[i$M_j^j^_ifheY[Zkh[ÄWced]ej^[hiÄeX`[Yj_l[\kb\_b#
c[dj"[hhed[ekijh[dZiWdZd[Y[iiWhoYehh[Yj_ediYWdX[h[WZ_bo_Z[dj_\_[Z$>em#
[l[h"Yh_j[h_WWdZ_dZ_YWjehiZ[h_l[Zm_j^ikY^WdWffb_YWj_edWh[h[ijh_Yj[Zje_d#
\ehcWj_ed"ZWjWWdZademb[Z][j^WjWbh[WZo[n_iji$
B[jkiWiikc[j^Wj\eh[ijZ[l[befc[djm_j^_dj^[f[h_eZQj&"jcSWYYehZ_d]je
Wh[\[hh[Zi_j[kd_j[$]$ijWdZ"ijhWjkc"[ijWj["]hemj^h[]_ed"ijWj[_iY^WhWYj[h#
_i[ZXoj^[_dZ_YWjehiQ?'"$$$"?dSY\$<_]$-$'$B[j_dZ_YWjehiQ?'"$$$"?dSX[]hem_d]
ijeYa"lebkc[_dYh[c[dj"d[j\_dWdY_Wbo_[bZ"Z_l[hi_jo"fhej[Yj_l[\kdYj_edi"[jY$?\
j^_i\eh[ij[lebl[ijej^[ijWj[iQM'"$$$"MdSj^[Z[l[befc[djcWoX[ZeYkc[dj#
[ZXoh[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[ie\j^[W\eh[c[dj_ed[Z_dZ_YWjehiXo_dl[djeh_[i"hWd#
ZeciWcfb_d]"l_ikWblWbkWj_edWjj^[fe_dji_dj_c[Qj&"jcS$J^[ZodWc_YijWj[i
QM'"$$$"MdS YWd X[ YecfWh[Z m_j^ \_n[Z jWh][j lWbk[i" [$]$ \eh jh[[ if[Y_[i Yec#
fei_j_ed"]hem_d]ijeYa"h[jkhded\_dWdY_Wb_dl[ijc[djY\$<_]$-$'"ieb_Zb_d[i$
<khj^[hceh["_jm_bbX[[l_Z[djm^[j^[heXi[hl[ZZodWc_Yi[lebl[m_j^_dWfh[#
Z[\_d[Z jWh][j Yehh_Zeh" [$]$ X[jm[[d if[Y_\_Y b_c_ji \eh \[bb_d] lebkc[" \_dWdY_Wb
o_[bZ"b_gk_Z_jo"Yh_j_YWbb[l[bi\ehZ[fei_j_edeh[c_ii_edhWj[iY\$<_]$-$'"ZWi^[Z
b_d[i$
?dekh[nWcfb[<_]$-$'Wjj^[_d_j_Wbfe_dj_dj_c[jeXbWYaY_hYb["_dZ_YW#
jeh?'Z[l_Wj[iib_]^jbo\hecj^[jWh][jlWbk[Xkjh[cW_dim_j^_dj^[Z[i_h[ZYeh#
h_Zehj^[m^eb[j_c[$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"?([$]$]hem_d]ijeYa[lebl[i_dWje#
jWbbokdZ[i_h[ZmWo$?dZ_YWjeh?d[$]$ijhkYjkhWbZ_l[hi_joWj\_hij[lebl[i_dWjWh#
][j#eh_[djWj[Z cWdd[h" Xkj j^[d Yedl[h][i je j^[ bem[h b_c_j WdZ \Wbbi X[bem _j$
J^[m_Z[hj^[jef_YWbhWd][e\j^[_dZ_YWjehiQ?'"$$$"?(S"j^[ceh[Yecfh[^[di_l[#
boj^[ZodWc_YiYWdX[h[fehj[Z"WdZj^[ceh[Yh_j[h_WYWdX[_dj[]hWj[Z\eh[h#
hed[ekijh[dZijeX[cWZ[eXl_ekiWdZZ[cWdZi\ehYehh[Yj_edijeX[cWZ[[l_#
Z[dj$J^[fej[dj_WbZ[cWdZ\ehYehh[Yj_ediZ[f[dZiedj^[m[_]^j_d]e\j^[fWh#
j_YkbWhYh_j[h_W$J^[m[_]^j_d]h[ikbji\hecj^[fh[Z[\_d[ZeX`[Yj_l[^_[hWhY^oWf#
fb_[ZXoj^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h$
È
3IMULATIONÈANDÈ3CENARIOÈ!NALYSIS
j_#Yh_j[h_W[lWbkWj_ede\cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$7dWboi_ie\_dZ_YWjehZodWc_Yi
cWoh[fbWY[Wh[W#if[Y_\_Y"lebkc[#if[Y_\_Yeh[gkWj_ed#XWi[Z_dZ_YWjehi$M_j^j^[
eXi[hl[Z_dZ_YWjehiYel[h_d]WXheWZhWd][e\Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWdZj^[_hbed]#j[hc
ZodWc_Yi"ckbj_#\kdYj_edWbI:YWdX[cWZ[ef[hWj_edWb$
È
3IMULATIONÈ-ODELSÈASÈAÈ4OOLÈFORÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNINGÈ
ANDÈ$ECISION
-AKINGÈOFÈ3USTAINABLEÈ$EVELOPMENT
J^[i_]d_\_YWdY[e\i_bl_YkbjkhWb]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehi
h[ikbji\hecj^[bed][l_joe\jh[[iWdZijWdZi$8[YWki[e\j^[bed]]hemj^f[h_#
eZiYel[h[Z"h[Y[djboWZefj[Zi_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[idehcWbboYWd#
dejX[[nWc_d[Zm_j^_d\_[bZjh_Wbi$J^[[nWc_d[Zi_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djijhWj#
[]_[i mekbZ ^Wl[ X[Yec[ eXieb[j[ eh \eh]ejj[d X[\eh[ j^[i[ bed]#j[hc ikhl[oi
Wh[Yecfb[j[Z$J^[h[\eh["\eh[ijiY_[dY[Z[h_l[i\kdYj_edWbh[bWj_edi\hec[nf[h_#
c[djiWdZYecX_d[ij^[c_djeceZ[bie\\eh[ijZ[l[befc[dj$M_j^j^ei[ceZ[bi"
_j_ifeii_Xb[jei_ckbWj[j^[ioij[cÉiX[^Wl_ekh_d\Wijcej_edehÆ_\Äj^[dÇWdWb#
oi[i$J^hek]^i_ckbWj_ed"[Yebe]_YWb"o_[bZ#h[\[hh_d]WdZc_Yhe#[Yedec_YYedi[#
gk[dY[ie\cWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[iehdWjkhWbZ_ijkhXWdY[iYWdX[[ckbWj[Zm_j^
j^[ ceZ[b$ 8_e][eY^[c_YWb eh [Yef^oi_ebe]_YWbbo XWi[Z fheY[ii ceZ[bi ekjb_d[
b_c_ji[$]$YedijhW_dji_dj[hcie\Yh_j_YWb_dfkjiWdZekjfkji"WYj_ediWdZijWj[i
_dm^_Y^\eh[ijhoYWdWYjm_j^ekjfkjj_d]j^[ijWX_b_joYh_j[h_We\j^[ioij[cije
X[cWdW][ZWjh_ia<_]$-$)$Je\_nj^ei[YedijhW_dji"f[hcWd[dj[Yebe]_YWbeX#
i[hlWj_edi"ie_bikhl[oiWdZi_j[cWff_d]icWoYedjh_Xkj[$IeY_e#[Yedec_YYed#
ijhW_dji_dYbkZ[[ijWj[cWdW][c[dj"fhej[Yj_l[h[]kbWj_ediWdZ\eh[ijbWmi$EdY[
j^ei[YedijhW_dji^Wl[X[[d\_n[Z"cWdW][c[djceZ[bicWo^[bf_Z[dj_\oj^[ef#
j_cWbijWdZcWdW][c[dj\ehW]_l[d_d_j_WbijWj[WdZm_j^_dj^[fh[Z[\_d[ZYehh_#
Zeh$?dj^[[nWcfb[e\j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?BL7m^_Y^\ebbemi"_jm_bbX[i^emd
^emcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[icWoX[j[ij[ZXo[dj[hfh_i[i_ckbWj_ed\ehj^[_h[\#
\[Yjiedj^[jejWb[ijWj["]_l[dWd_d_j_WbijWj[WdZcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[$I?BL7
'). #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
&IGÈÈ-ANAGEMENTÈMODELSÈSUPPORTÈTHEÈDECISIONÈWITHINÈAÈGIVENÈDECISIONÈCORRIDORÈFRAMEDÈAR
ROWS ÈBYÈSIMULATINGÈLONG
TERMÈCONSEQUENCESÈOFÈMANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈMOBILEÈARROWS
($(ijWdZiWiWfhenoe\Wd[mceZ[b][d[hWj_edm^_Y^j^[ceZ[bi8M?D"FHE=#
D7KIWdZCEI;IWbieX[bed]je>Wi[dWk[h'//*1Ij[hXW[jWb$'//+1DW][b'///$
Feii_Xb[Wffb_YWj_edie\I?BL7($([nj[dZ_d]\hecjh[[jeijWj[b[l[bWh[[n[cfb_#
\_[Z Wj [ijWj[ b[l[b Fh[jpiY^ [j Wb$ '//.1 :khiao (&&&1 Cbb[h (&&&$7ffb_YWj_ed
WdZ [lWbkWj_ed e\ j^[ I?BL7 i_ckbWjeh ed ej^[h ifWj_Wb iYWb[i Wh[ Z_iYkii[Z Xo
Adea['//.">Wd[m_da[bWdZFh[jpiY^(&&&WdZ:kiY^b(&&'$J^[WZlWdjW][
e\j^[i[ceZ[bWffb_YWj_ediYecfWh[Zm_j^WXijhWYjYecfWh_iedie\Wbj[hdWj_l[i
_ij^[Yedi_Z[hWj_ede\dkc[heki_d_j_WbijWj[iWjj_c[je$
<_]kh[-$* ekjb_d[i \ekh ij[fi e\ ijhWj[]_Y [dj[hfh_i[ fbWdd_d] WdZ Z[Y_i_ed#
cWa_d]_dm^_Y^]hemj^ceZ[biWh[Wffb_[Z0
'$ 7bbijWdZiehiWcfb[fbejih[]_ij[h[ZXo_dl[djeh_[iWh[\_hijWii_]d[Zjeif[Y_\#
_YijhWjWXoYheii#YbWii_\_YWj_ed$IjhWjWcWoX[jof_YWbYbWii[ie\i_j[i%ijWdZieh
jh[[if[Y_[i%]hemj^ZodWc_Yi$M_j^j^_ifheY[Zkh["Wc_ZZb[Yekhi[X[jm[[d
Whek]^WdZj^[h[\eh[b[iii_]d_\_YWdjijhWj_\_YWj_edWdZWjee\_d[ijhWj_\_YWj_ed
m_j^WdkcX[he\ijhWjWi_c_bWhjej^[dkcX[he\ijWdZi_iY^ei[d$?dZ_YWjeh
ijWdZiWh[j^[dY^ei[dh[fh[i[dj_d]Z[\_d[ZijhWjW$?dZ_YWjehijWdZii[hl[Wi
j^[[ijWj[Éio_[bZYbWii_\_YWj_ed[$]$YWb_XhWj_edm_j^XWi_Y\eh[ij_dif[Yj_edi
WdZ Z[\_d[ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i$ 8o Wffbo_d] W o_[bZ#h[\[hh_d] ]hemj^
ceZ[b"[Yedec_YWdZ[Yebe]_YWbYedi[gk[dY[ie\j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[iYWdX[WdW#
boi[Z$:_iYkii_d]Æ_\Äj^[dÇh[bWj_edie\Wbj[hdWj_l[cWdW][c[djWYj_edied_d#
Z_YWjehijWdZii[hl[WiWgkWdj_jWj_l[XWi_i\eheX`[Yj_l[Z[\_d_j_ediWdZeX`[Y#
j_l[W]h[[c[dji$
($ CWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i Z[l[bef[Z \eh _dZ_YWjeh ijWdZi Wh[ Wii_]d[Z je Wi#
ieY_Wj[Z ijhWjW$ Ki_d] _dl[djeho ZWjW" i_ckbWj_ed hkdi Wh[ YWhh_[Z ekj \eh Wbb
ijhWjW"^_]^b_]^j_d]j^[bed]#j[hcYedi[gk[dY[ie\j^[Z[\_d[ZcWdW][c[dj
ijhWj[]_[i"[$]$\ehj_cX[hfheZkYj_ed"\_dWdY_WblWbk[_dYh[c[djWdZijWX_b_jo$
7ced]ej^[hi"]beXWbYkjj_d]hWj[iWh[]W_d[Z\eh[WY^ijhWjkcWdZj^[i[je\
Y^ei[dcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$
È 3IMULATIONÈ-ODELSÈASÈAÈ4OOLÈFORÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING ')/
&IGÈÈ#ONCEPTÈFORÈTHEÈAPPLICATIONÈOFÈ
GROWTHÈMODELSÈFORÈSTRATEGICÈPLANNINGÈATÈ
ESTATEÈLEVELÈ3IMULATIONÈHELPSÈUSÈUNDER
STANDÈWHATÈEFFECTÈALTERNATIVEÈMANAGE
MENTÈREGIMESÈHAVEÈONÈTHEÈLONG
TERMÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈAÈFORESTÈESTATE
)$ 7\j[h ^Wl_d] Wii_]d[Z [l[ho _dl[djeho fbej je W ijhWjkc WdZ Wd Wffhefh_Wj[
ijhWjkc#if[Y_\_Y cWdW][c[dj Ä eh W i[j e\ cWdW][c[dji Ä j^[ jejWb [dj[h#
fh_i[ZodWc_YiYWdX[i_ckbWj[Z$M_j^j^_i"_j_ifeii_Xb[jeWdWboi[j^[Yed#
i[gk[dY[ie\ijWdZ#ehijhWjW#h[\[hh_d]cWdW][c[djWYj_ediedbed]#j[hc[d#
j[hfh_i[Z[l[befc[dj$JeWle_ZWdkdZ[i_h[ZZ[l[befc[djWj[ijWj[b[l[b"cWd#
W][c[djijhWj[]_[iZ[\_d[Z\ehj^[ijhWjWYWdX[ceZ_\_[ZehYecX_d[Z_dWZ_\#
\[h[djcWdd[h_\d[Y[iiWho$M_j^j^[ceZ[bW]]h[]Wj_d]_dZ_l_ZkWbZ[Y_i_edi
\hecijWdZehijhWjkcb[l[bje[ijWj[eh^_]^[hb[l[bi"j^[WZlWdjW][ie\Z_\\[h#
[dj_dZ_l_ZkWbZ[Y_i_ediX[Yec[Yb[Wh[h$I_ckbWj_edhkdiel[hi[l[hWbZ[YWZ[i
cWoh[l[Wbbed]#j[hcYedi[gk[dY[ie\Y^ei[dcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWj[i#
jWj[b[l[b"[$]$i^ehjW][i_db_gk_Z_jo"Z[\_Y_ji_dif[Y_\_YWiiehjc[dji"[jY$Ed[
cWoh[WYjjekdZ[i_h[ZZodWc_YiWj[ijWj[b[l[bXoh[Yedi_Z[h_d]ehWZ`kij_d]
cWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[iWjijWdZehijhWjkcb[l[b\[[ZXWYaWhhemi_d<_]$-$*$
?j_i[nWYjboj^_ij^WjfWl[ij^[mWo\ehijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa#
_d]Wj[ijWj[b[l[b$
*$ ;ijWXb_i^[ZcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[i\ehj^[Z[\_d[ZijhWjW"cWdW][c[dj#h[\[h#
h_d]o_[bZjWXb[im_j^]beXWbYkjj_d]hWj[i"WdZj^[cWj_YcWfii^em_d]o_[bZ#
h[\[hh_d]"[Yedec_YWdZ[Yebe]_YWblWbk[ie\_dZ_YWjehijWdZiÄh[fh[i[dj_d]
ijhWjW"ijWdZi"_dl[djehofbejiWdZj^[jejWb[ijWj[ÄWh[\kdZWc[djWbXWi[i\eh
i_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[dj$
<_]kh[-$+ i^emi j^[ ZodWc_Yi e\ WddkWb lebkc[ _dYh[c[dj" ]hem_d] ijeYa"
Ykjj_d]hWj[WdZd[jh[jkhd\hecj_cX[hiWb[i_ckbWj[ZXoI?BL7($(m_j^_dW)&#
o[Whf[h_eZW\j[hj^[(&&&\eh[ij_dl[djeho_dj^[Ckd_Y_fWb<eh[ije\JhWkdij[_d$
'*& #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
M_j^j^_i[nWcfb["j^[YedY[fjkWbYedi_Z[hWj_ediZ_iYkii[Z_dI[Yj_ed-$)$(i[[
<_]$-$(Wh[[n[cfb_\_[Z$J^[h[\[h[dY[i^emij^[ZodWc_Yie\j^[7#lWbk[#XWi[Z
YedZ_j_edi$J^[ijhWj[]oe\\_dWbYhef#jh[[j^_dd_d]_iikf[h_ehjei[b[Yj_l[j^_d#
d_d]_dYkjj_d]iWdZd[jh[jkhdWdZmekbZb[WZjeWi_]d_\_YWdj]hem_d]#ijeYaZ[#
Yh[Wi[WYYekdj_d]\eh*(,c)%^WWjfh[i[djjeWXekj^Wb\j^[Wcekdj_d)&o[Whi$
J^_i cWdW][c[dj ijhWj[]o mekbZ dej X[ Yecf[diWj[Z Xo W ^_]^[h _dYh[c[dj"
ikY^ j^Wj W ikijW_dWXb[ d[j h[jkhd mekbZ X[ fkj Wj h_ia$ I[b[Yj_l[ j^_dd_d] edbo
mekbZb[WZjeWib_]^j]hem_d]#ijeYaZ[Yh[Wi[WdZj^[h[\eh[ijWX_b_i[d[jh[jkhd$
I_c_bWhYedi_Z[hWj_ediYekbZWbieX[YWhh_[Zekj\ehWbbej^[ho_[bZ#h[\[hh_d]"[Ye#
dec_Y WdZ [Yebe]_YWb lWh_WXb[i YWbYkbWj[Z _d i_ckbWj_ed hkdi$ Edbo [ijWj[#b[l[b
i_ckbWj_ede\j^Wja_dZh[l[Wbij^[bed]#j[hcYedi[gk[dY[ie\Y^ei[dcWdW][#
c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i\ehj^[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[$
È
3PATIALLYÈ%XPLICITÈ-ODELLINGÈANDÈ6ISUALISATIONÈ
OFÈ.ATURALÈ3CENERY
FbWdd_d]Z[Y_i_edi"b_a[jh[[if[Y_[ii[b[Yj_ed"j^_dd_d]WdZh[][d[hWj_ed"^Wl[
_cfWYjiedj^[dWjkhWbiY[d[hoWdZj^[h[\eh[edfhej[Yj_l[WdZh[Yh[Wj_edWb\kdY#
È 3PATIALLYÈ%XPLICITÈ-ODELLINGÈANDÈ6ISUALISATIONÈOFÈ.ATURALÈ3CENERYÈ '*'
&IGÈÈ 6ISUALISATIONÈ ATÈ LANDSCAPEÈ LEVELÈ $EVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ .ORWAYÈ SPRUCECOMMONÈ BEECHÈ
MIXEDÈSTANDSÈINÈTHEÈ4RAUNSTEINÈFORESTÈESTATEÈ'ERMANYÈFROMÈAGEÈÈTOÈÈFROMÈTOPÈTOÈBOTTOM È
,EFTÈCOLUMNÈ7ITHOUTÈMANAGEMENTÈMIDDLEÈCOLUMNÈTHINNEDÈFROMÈABOVEÈWITHÈMODERATEÈPROMO
TIONÈOFÈBEECHÈRIGHTÈCOLUMNÈHEAVYÈPROMOTIONÈOFÈBEECH
j_ediY\$JWXb[-$'"Yh_j[h_W+WdZ,$JeikffehjZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]"Wffhefh_Wj[Yec#
fkj[hfhe]hWciYWdX[ki[Zjel_ikWb_i[j^[bed]#j[hcYedi[gk[dY[ie\cWdW][#
c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$<hecWlW_bWXb[ZWjWe\bWdZiYWf[h[b_[\"ikh\WY[ijhkYjkh["ijWdZ
XekdZWh_[iWdZijeYa_d]jof["j^h[[#Z_c[di_edWbbWdZiYWf[l_[miWh[][d[hWj[Z"
'*( #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
[dWXb_d]Wki[hjebeeaZemd\hecWdWhX_jhWhol_[mfe_dj$8oYekfb_d]m_j^Wd
_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[#XWi[Z]hemj^ceZ[b"ijWj_Yh[YehZiYWdX[Wii_]d[ZjeWZodWc_Y
l_[mFh[jpiY^WdZI[_\[hj(&&&$J^_i_ii^emd_d<_]$-$,XoWi[Yj_ede\j^[Ck#
d_Y_fWb<eh[ije\JhWkdij[_d$J^[_d_j_Wbi_jkWj_ed\ehciW(+#o[Wh#ebZc_n[ZijWdZ
e\ DehmWo ifhkY[ WdZ Yecced X[[Y^$ J^_i ijWdZ" m_j^ Wd Wh[W e\ WXekj +^W"
_i Wj \_hij Z_ifbWo[Z _d _ji fh[i[dj YedZ_j_ed Xo j^[ l_ikWb_iWj_ed fhe]hWc B#L?I
<_]$-$,"kff[hhem$?dWi[YedZij[f"j^[ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj_ii_ckbWj[Zm_j^Wd
_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$?dj^_ii_ckbWj_ed[nWcfb["j^[]hemj^i_ckbW#
jehI?BL7_iki[ZX[jm[[dj^[W][ie\(+WdZ'(+$J^h[[cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i
Wh[YecfWh[Z\ehi_ckbWj_ed0'Z[l[befc[djm_j^ekjWdoi_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][#
c[dj"(ceZ[hWj[fhecej_ede\X[[Y^Xoj^_dd_d]\hecWXel["WdZ)ijhed]
fhecej_ede\X[[Y^Xoj^_dd_d]\hecWXel[$J^[h[ikbjie\j^[i[Wbj[hdWj_l[iYWd
X[l_ikWb_i[Z<_]$-$,"b[\j"c_ZZb[WdZh_]^jYebkcdi"h[if[Yj_l[bo$M_j^decWd#
W][c[dj"W^ece][d[ekifkh[ifhkY[ijWdZ[lebl[ib[\jYebkcd$M_j^ekjWYj_l[
fhecej_ed" X[[Y^ kdZ[hb_[i ifhkY[ WdZ \W_bi Wbceij Yecfb[j[bo kdj_b j^[ W][ e\
'(+Zk[jei[b\#j^_dd_d]$M_j^ceZ[hWj[fhecej_edWjj^[[dZe\j^[i_ckbWj_ed"
X[[Y^Éii^Wh[WYYekdji\eh(&1m_j^ijhed]fhecej_ed_jWYYekdji\eh+&$
L_ikWb_iWj_ed_iXWi[ZediY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edim_j^_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ceZ[bih[#
fheZkY_d] jh[[ WdZ ijWdZ ZodWc_Yi ifWj_Wbbo$ ?d j^[i[ jof[i e\ ceZ[bi j^[ i_d#
]b[jh[[\ehcij^[XWi_Y_d\ehcWj_edWbkd_j$?jiZ_Wc[j[h"^[_]^j"YhemdXWi[WdZ
YhemdXWi[fei_j_edWh[ceZ[bb[ZZ[f[dZ_d]edi_j[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"Yecf[j_j_ed"
Z_ijkhXWdY[i"i_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[dj"[jY$J^[b[l[be\WXijhWYj_ed_dj^[ceZ#
[b_i_Z[dj_YWbm_j^j^[b[l[be\X_ebe]_YWbeXi[hlWj_ed$<ehm[_]^j_d]kfZ_\\[h[dj
fbWdd_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[iWdZ\ehZ[b_X[hWj_edim_j^ijWa[^ebZ[hi_di_bl_YkbjkhWbfbWd#
d_d]"l_ikWb_iWj_edcWo[lebl[_djeWd[\\[Yj_l[jeeb_dfWhj_Y_fWj_l[fbWdd_d]WdZ
Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]fheY[ii[i$
È
3TRUCTURALÈ$IVERSITYÈANDÈ"IODIVERSITY
Jh[[i" \eh[ij ijWdZi WdZ i_bl_YkbjkhWb bWdZiYWf[i Wh[ Yecfed[dji X[jm[[d"
m_j^_d eh Xo m^_Y^ f^oi_YWb" X_ebe]_YWb eh [Yebe]_YWb fheY[ii[i Wh[ hkdd_d]$
IjWdZehbWdZiYWf[ijhkYjkh[j^[h[\eh[W\\[Yji^WX_jWjik_jWX_b_joWdZX_eZ_l[hi_#
jo<_]$-$-$<eh[nWcfb["ijWdZijhkYjkh[Z[j[hc_d[ij^[WXkdZWdY[WdZfefkbW#
j_edZodWc_Yie\embi"meeZf[Ya[hiWdZX[WhijeikY^Wd[nj[djj^Wj_jcWoi[hl[
WiWd_dZ_YWjeh\eh[lWbkWj_d]^WX_jWjgkWb_joWdZcWdW]_d]fefkbWj_edZodWc#
_YiB[jY^[h[jWb$'//.1M_[]WdZ'//.$J^[Ybei[h[bWj_edi^_fX[jm[[dijhkYjkh[i
e\ ijWdZi WdZ jh[[i WdZ j^[_h Yebed_iWj_ed Xo X_hZi" X[[jb[i" if_Z[hi" bWY[m_d]i
WdZXk]i_ife_dj[ZekjWced]ej^[hiXo;bb[dX[h][jWb$'/.+WdZ7cc[hWdZ
IY^kX[hj'///$Ademb[Z][YedY[hd_d]h[bWj_ediX[jm[[dijhkYjkhWbY^WhWYj[h_i#
j_YiWdZ^WX_jWjehif[Y_[iZ_l[hi_jo_iij_bb\hW]c[djWho$>em[l[h"_j_iYecced#
boW]h[[Zj^Wjm_j^Wh_i_d]ijhkYjkhWbZ_l[hi_jo"j^[Z_l[hi_joe\Wd_cWbWdZfbWdj
if[Y_[iWbie_dYh[Wi[i>WX[h'/.($J^ki"ijhkYjkhWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWYYekdj\eh
[Wio#je#c[Wikh[kdif[Y_\_Y_dZ_YWjehi\ehfej[dj_WbX_eZ_l[hi_joe\\eh[ij[Yeioi#
j[ciKbh_Y^'///$IjhkYjkhWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiYWdX[ceh[[Wi_boikhl[o[ZWdZ_d#
l[djeh_[ZedWbWh][hiYWb[Xo\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[ij^WddkcX[h"Z[di_joWdZZ_l[h#
È 3TRUCTURALÈ$IVERSITYÈANDÈ"IODIVERSITY '*)
&IGÈÈ3CHEMATICÈRELATIONSHIPÈBETWEENÈSTRUCTUR
ALÈDIVERSITYÈANDÈSPECIESHABITATÈDIVERSITYÈ!DAPTEDÈ
FROMÈ"EGONÈETÈALÈ
i_joe\i_d]b[Wd_cWbehfbWdjif[Y_[ij^[ci[bl[i$8[YWki[e\j^[^_]^c[Wikh_d]
Yeiji"j^[i[YWdedboX[c[Wikh[Zi[b[Yj_l[bo"Xkjj^[oijhed]boYehh[bWj[m_j^j^[
m_Z[boWlW_bWXb[ijhkYjkhWblWh_WXb[i$<hecj^_ife_dje\l_[m"ijhkYjkhWblWbk[iÄ
Wbh[WZo ademd \hec \eh[ij _dl[djeh_[i eh ej^[hm_i[ [Wio je c[Wikh[ Ä i[hl[ Wi
_dZ_YWjehi ced_jeh_d] Z[jW_b[Z Xkj Z_\\_Ykbj#je#WYY[ii _d\ehcWj_ed$ ?\ ijhkYjkhWb
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWh[_dj[]hWj[Z_dje]hemj^ceZ[bi"j^[oc_]^j[dj[hijhWj[]_YfbWd#
d_d]Y\$I[Yj$-$($($
È
)DENTIFYINGÈ3TRUCTURESÈATÈ%STATEÈ,EVELÈTHEÈ3PECIESÈ0ROFILEÈ)NDEX
7i Wd [nWcfb[" j^[ _dZ[n 7h[b _i _djheZkY[Z" Z[iYh_X_d] j^[ WbbeYWj_ed e\ j^[
ijWdZ ifWY[ Xo jh[[ if[Y_[i Fh[jpiY^ (&&($ J^[ _dZ[n cWo X[ YWbYkbWj[Z \hec
_dl[djehoZWjWWdZYehh[bWj[im_j^j^[^WX_jWjik_jWX_b_joe\Z[[h"^ebbem#d[ij_d]
X_hZiWdZZ[WZmeeZ#Yebed_i_d]eh]Wd_iciWim[bbWim_j^h[Yh[Wj_edWb\kdYj_edi
WdZW[ij^[j_YlWbk[iFejj(&&($J^_i_dZ[n[dWXb[ij^[Z[iYh_fj_ede\WijWdZÉi
ijhkYjkhWbijWj[$<hech[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[dji"ijhkYjkhWbY^Wd][iYWdX[gkWdj_#
\_[Z$
J^[_dZ[n7h[b_iXWi[Zedj^[_dZ[ne\I^Wdded'/*.$<eh_jiYWbYkbWj_edW
ijWdZ_iZ_l_Z[Z_djej^h[[^[_]^jbWo[hi`3'"(")"h[fh[i[dj_d]&Ä+&"+&Ä.&WdZ.&Ä
'&&e\ijWdZcWn_ckc^[_]^j"h[if[Yj_l[bo$8o[dkc[hWj_ed"j^[dkcX[he\_d#
Z_l_ZkWbie\if[Y_[i__dbWo[h`_i_Z[dj_\_[Z$Ikcc_d]#kfj^[fheZkYjie\if[Y_[i
i^Wh[WdZbe]Wh_j^c_Yif[Y_[ii^Wh[\eh_3'jeIif[Y_[iWdZ`3'jeP^[_]^jbWo[hi
h[ikbji_dWd_dZ[ngkWdj_\o_d]X_eZ_l[hi_joWdZl[hj_YWbWbbeYWj_ede\if[Y_[i_dW
\eh[ijijWdZ$J^[cWn_ckc_dZ[nlWbk[m_j^]_l[dif[Y_[idkcX[hIWdZbWo[hiP
_i7cWn3bdIÕP$J^[h[\eh[j^[_dZ[n7h[b
IP
Ĭ¬f_`Õ'df_`
_3'`3' ;g$-$'
7h[b3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÕ'&&
'dIÕP
'** #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
Z[dej[i^emYbei[W]_l[dijWdZijhkYjkh[_ijej^[cWn_ckcijhkYjkh_d]fei#
i_Xb[m_j^j^[]_l[dif[Y_[iWXkdZWdY[$;gkWj_ed-$'Yedi_ijie\0'IehdkcX[h
e\eYYkhh_d]if[Y_[i"(dkcX[he\^[_]^jbWo[hiP"_dj^_iYWi[j^h[[bWo[hi")
if[Y_[ii^Wh[_dbWo[hif_`
d_"`
f_`3ÄÄÄÄ"
D
*dkcX[he\_dZ_l_ZkWbie\if[Y_[i__dbWo[h`d_`"WdZ+jejWbdkcX[he\
_dZ_l_ZkWbiD$?dij[WZe\^[_]^jbWo[hi"Z_Wc[j[hYbWii[icWoWbiei[hl[WiWd_d#
fkjjej^[_dZ[n$<_]kh[-$.i^emij^[if[Y_[ifhe\_b[_dZ[n7h[b\ehfkh[WdZc_n[Z
ijWdZi e\ DehmWo ifhkY[ F_Y[W WX_[i B$ WdZ Yecced X[[Y^ <W]ki ioblWj_YW
B$$ J^[ _dZ[n WZZi kf je '&&" hWd]_d] \hec fkh[ ifhkY[ ijWdZi 7h[b3(,$+
je[l[d#W][ZifhkY[ÄX[[Y^c_n[ZijWdZi7h[b3-/$&WdZkd[l[d#W][ZifhkY[Ä
X[[Y^c_n[ZijWdZi7h[b3/($'$
È
3CALE
#OMPREHENSIVEÈ)NDICATORS
J^[bdif[Y_[idkcX[h7#bdWh[W<Z_W]hWc<_]$-$/Z[dej[ij^[[\\_Y_[d#
Yoe\ki_d]iWcfb[fbejZWjW\ehZ[iYh_X_d]ijWdZijhkYjkh[i]_l_d]_d\ehcWj_ed
h[]WhZ_d]j^[A"BWdZGZ_l[hi_joe\jh[[if[Y_[iM^_jjWa[h'/-&$J^_iWdWboi_i
ijWhjim_j^_Z[dj_\o_d]j^[dkcX[he\jh[[if[Y_[i7'WjWd_dl[djehofbejm_j^j^[
Wh[W<'$J^[_Z[dj_\_YWj_edi^emij^[\_hijjkfb[Q7'"<'S$Dem"WhekdZj^[Y[djh[
e\j^[_dl[djehofbejYedY[djh_YY_hYb[im_j^ij[fm_i[_dYh[Wi_d]hWZ__Wh[i[j$<eh
[WY^e\j^[i[Y_hYb[ia'"$$$"dj^[dkcX[he\Wff[Wh_d]jh[[if[Y_[iWdZj^[[dYbei[Z
Wh[WcWoX[_Z[dj_\_[Z$If[Y_[idkcX[hi7'"$$$"dWh[h[YehZ[ZW]W_dijj^[h[if[Y#
j_l[Y_hYb[Wh[Wi<'"$$$"d_dWZekXb[#be]Wh_j^c_Ybd7#bd<Z_W]hWc<_]$-$/$?d
ehZ[hjeeXjW_dijWXb[_d\ehcWj_ed\ehWdeXi[hl[Zh[]_ed"cWdoehWbb_dl[djeho
&IGÈÈ3CHEMATICÈDETERMINATIONÈOFÈAÈ
BÈANDÈGÈSPECIESÈDIVERSITYÈ4HEÈNUMBERÈ
OFÈSPECIESÈ!ÈBASEDÈONÈINVENTORYÈDATAÈISÈ
PLOTTEDÈAGAINSTÈAREAÈ&ÈINÈAÈDOUBLEÈLOGA
RITHMICÈGRIDÈLN! LN& ÈREGRESSIONÈENA
BLESÈDIVERSITYÈQUANTIFICATIONÈFROMÈPOINTÈ
TOÈREGIONALÈSCALE
fbejickijX[WdWboi[Zh[f[Wj[Zbo$J^[h[ikbj_d]iYWjj[h#fbej_iiceej^[ZXoh[#
]h[ii_edWdWboi_im_j^j^[ceZ[b
'd73W!XÕ'd<!E ;g$-$(
È
#ONCLUSIONÈANDÈ0ERSPECTIVES
Ki_d]I:Yh_j[h_WWdZ_dZ_YWjehi\ehced_jeh_d]_iZ_\\[h[dj\hecki_d]j^[c
\ehijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]$Ced_jeh_d]YbW_cijeZ[\_d[kd_gk[
WdZYecfWhWXb[_dZ_YWjehiWdZYh_j[h_W\ehWm_Z[hWd][e\ifWj_WbiYWb[iijWdZ"
[ijWj[" h[]_ed" cW`eh h[]_ed WdZ jof[i e\ emd[hi^_fi ijWj[" ckd_Y_fWb" fh_lWj[
\eh[iji$IjWj[Z[iYh_fj_edWdZZ_W]dei_ie\Y^Wd][ih[gk_h[Wm^eb[l[Yjehe\_d#
Z_YWjehi$<ehj^_i"gkWdj_jWj_l[_dZ_YWjehiWdZYh_j[h_WWh[iek]^j"m_j^m^_Y^WlW_b#
WXb[ ijWj[ ZWjW YWd X[ X[ij ki[Z eh m^_Y^ YWd X[ c[Wikh[Z m_j^ Wd WYY[fjWXb[
Wcekdje\[\\ehj$J^[j[cfjWj_edjeb_c_jZWjWjeW\[m[Wi_boc[WikhWXb[_dZ_YW#
jehi_ikdZ[hijWdZWXb[$>em[l[h"_dl_[me\j^[Yecfb[n_joe\\eh[ij[Yeioij[ci"
el[hi_cfb_\_[Z ced_jeh_d] WffheWY^[i Wh[ dej iWj_i\WYjeho m^[d Y^WhWYj[h_i_d]
Yecfb[n\eh[ijioij[ci$A[o_dZ_YWjehifh[i[dj[ZXoIf[bbcWdd(&&)^_]^b_]^j
[nWcfb[i\ehgkWdj_jWj_l["iYWb[#Yecfh[^[di_l[_dZ_YWjehi"m^_Y^YWdX[][d[hWb#
_i[ZWdZ_d\[hh[Z\hecWlW_bWXb[ZWjW$Ik]][ij[Z_dZ_YWjehi^Wl[jeX[WdWboi[Zh[#
]WhZ_d]j^[_hWffb_YWX_b_joWdZ_dj[]h_jo\ehced_jeh_d]$
7ieffei[Zjeced_jeh_d]"ijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]m_bbki[I:_dZ_YWjehiWdZYh_j[#
h_W\eh\kb\_bb_d]_dZ_l_ZkWbbo\_n[ZcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[ie\Wd[dj[hfh_i[$J^ki"
edboj^ei[Yh_j[h_WWdZ_dZ_YWjehij^WjWh[h[b[lWdj\ehj^[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[
Wh[i[b[Yj[Z$<khj^[hceh["i[b[Yj[ZYh_j[h_WWdZ_dZ_YWjehiWh[m[_]^[ZWYYehZ_d]
jej^[[ijWj[ieX`[Yj_l[^_[hWhY^o$?dYedjhWijjeced_jeh_d]"WicWbbdkcX[he\
_dZ_YWjehiWdZYh_j[h_Wm_bb][d[hWbboX[e\YedY[hd$M[_]^_d]j^[Yh_j[h_WW]W_dij
[WY^ej^[h_iZed[Xoj^[[ijWj[iemd[hehcWdW][hIeZja[[jWb$(&&*$
J^[ Wffb_YWj_ed e\ i_ckbWj_ed ceZ[bi ZodWc_Y ]hemj^ ceZ[bi m_bb [dW#
Xb[Wd_cfhel[ZI:[lWbkWj_edWdZWceh[\b[n_Xb[WZ`kijc[djX[jm[[di_d]kbWh
ijWdZWdZjejWb[ijWj[fbWdd_d]$I_ckbWj_edceZ[biYWdh[fbWY[Yecced_dZ_YW#
jehiXoW]]h[]Wj[ZZodWc_Ybed]#j[hc_dZ_YWjehi$?dj[]hWj_d]i_ckbWj_edceZ[bi
_djej^[fbWdd_d]fheY[iifWl[ij^[mWo\ehijhWj[]_Y\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[fbWdd_d]
WdZI:Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]Äj^[YedY[fje\m^_Y^_iekjb_d[Z_d<_]$-$''$I_ckbW#
j_edceZ[bi_dj[]hWj[Z_djeZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ciÄ]_l[d_d_j_Wbi_j["ijWj[WdZ
cWdW][c[dj Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi Ä cWo i_ckbWj[ ijWdZ Xo ijWdZ eh ijhWjkc Xo ijhW#
jkcm_j^_dXWjY^#ceZ[WdZYWdW]]h[]Wj[j^_ifWhj_Wb_d\ehcWj_ed\ehj^[jejWb
2EFERENCES '*-
&IGÈÈ 3TRUCTUREÈ ANDÈ ESSENTIALÈ ELEMENTSÈ OFÈ AÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMÈ FORÈ STRATEGICÈ FORESTÈ
MANAGEMENT
[ijWj[$=hemj^i_ckbWjehiYWdiYWb[WjZ_\\[h[djifWj_WbWdZj[cfehWbb[l[bi0\hec
ijWdZehijhWjkcje[ijWj[eh_dj[h#[ijWj[b[l[b"\heci^ehj#j[hcjh[Wjc[djh[WY#
j_edijebed]#j[hcZodWc_Yi$CWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iYWdX[WdWboi[Zh[]WhZ#
_d] j^[_h [ijWj[#h[\[hh_d] WdZ bed]#j[hc Yedi[gk[dY[i$ I_bl_YkbjkhWb h[#eh_[djW#
j_edX[Yec[ijhWdifWh[djh[]WhZ_d]_jiYedi[gk[dY[i\ehj^[jejWb[ijWj[$9edY[fji
WdZjeebi\ehi^_\j_d]jeWckbj_#\kdYj_edWbijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]e\I:Wh[m[bbZ[#
l[bef[ZFh[jpiY^[jWb$'//.1>Wd[m_da[b(&&'1If[bbcWdd(&&)1led=WZem(&&)1
IeZja[[jWb$(&&*$J[Y^d_YWb[gk_fc[djikY^WiYecfkj[hi"i_ckbWj_edie\jmWh["
ZWjWXWi[iWdZ_dl[djehoZWjWWh[WlW_bWXb[$J^[_h_dj[]hWj_ed_dje\eh[ijfbWdd_d]
WdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]cWoif[[Zkf_ddelWj_ed$
2EFERENCES
!MMERÈ5È3CHUBERTÈ(È È!RTEN
È0ROZE
ÈUNDÈ2ESSOURCENSCHUTZÈVORÈDEMÈ(INTERGRUNDÈFAU
NISTISCHERÈ5NTERSUCHUNGENÈIMÈ+RONENRAUMÈDESÈ7ALDESÈ&ORSTWÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
"AMBERGÈ 'È #OENENBERGÈ !'È È "ETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHEÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSLEHREÈ 7I3O
+URZ
LEHRBàCHERÈ6AHLENÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
"EGONÈ -È (ARPERÈ *,È 4OWNSENDÈ #2È È «KOLOGIEÈ )NDIVIDUENÈ 0OPULATIONÈ ,EBENSGEMEIN
SCHAFTENÈ"IRKHËUSERÈ"ASELÈÈPP
"ONCZEKÈ 2(È (OLSAPPLEÈ #7È 7HINSTONÈ !"È È &OUNDATIONSÈ OFÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMSÈ
!CADEMICÈ0RESSÈ.EWÈ9ORK
$URSKYÈ*È È%INSATZÈVONÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSSIMULATORENÈFàRÈ"ESTANDÈ"ETRIEBÈUNDÈ'ROREGIONÈ
(ABILITATIONSSCHRIFTÈ ANÈ DERÈ &ORSTWISSENSCHAFTLICHENÈ &AKULTËTÈ DERÈ 4ECHNISCHENÈ 5NIVERSITËTÈ
-àNCHENÈ&REISING
7EIHENSTEPHANÈÈPP
$USCHLÈ #È È 3IMULATIONÈ FORTBETRIEBLICHERÈ 3ACHVERHALTEÈ AUFÈ DERÈ "ASISÈ GEGENWËRTIGERÈ
7ALDSTRUKTURENÈ &ORSTLICHEÈ &ORSCHUNGSBERICHTEÈ -àNCHENÈ NOÈÈ 7ISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUMÈ
7EIHENSTEPHANÈ FàRÈ %RNËHRUNGÈ ,ANDNUTZUNGÈ UNDÈ 5MWELTÈ DERÈ 4ECHNISCHENÈ 5NIVERSITËTÈ
'*. #(!04%2È 7ffb_YWj_edie\Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bb_d]
2AUSCHERÈ(-È È%COSYSTEMÈMANAGEMENTÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈFORÈFEDERALÈFORESTSÈINÈTHEÈ5NITEDÈ
3TATESÈAÈREVIEWÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ n
2OSENZWEIGÈ-,È È3PECIESÈDIVERSITYÈINÈSPACEÈANDÈTIMEÈ#AMBRIDGEÈ5NIVERSITYÈ0RESSÈ#AM
BRIDGEÈÈPP
3HANNONÈ #%È È 4HEÈ MATHEMATICALÈ THEORYÈ OFÈ COMMUNICATIONÈ )NÈ 3HANNONÈ #%È 7EAVERÈ 7È
EDS È 4HEÈ MATHEMATICALÈ THEORYÈ OFÈ COMMUNICATIONÈ 5NIVERSITYÈ OFÈ )LLINOISÈ 0RESSÈ 5RBANAÈ
PPÈn
3ODTKEÈ2È È%INÈ%NTSCHEIDUNGSUNTERSTàTZUNGSSYSTEMÈFàRÈDENÈ:WISCHENFRUCHTANBAUÈ+ON
ZEPTIONÈ%NTWICKLUNGÈ6ALIDIERUNGÈ0H$È4HESISÈ#HRISTIAN
!LBRECHTSÈ5NIVERSITYÈ+IELÈÈPPÈ
HTTPE
DISSUNI
KIELDEDISS?INDEXHTM
3ODTKEÈ2È3CHMIDTÈ-È&ABRIKAÈ-È.AGELÈ*È$URSKYÈ*È0RETZSCHÈ(È È!NWENDUNGÈUNDÈ%INSATZÈ
VONÈ %INZELBAUMMODELLENÈ ALSÈ +OMPONENTENÈ VONÈ ENTSCHEIDUNGSUNTERSTàTZENDENÈ 3YSTE
MENÈFàRÈDIEÈSTRATEGISCHEÈ&ORSTBETRIEBSPLANUNGÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈ n
3PEIDELÈ'È È0LANUNGÈIMÈ&ORSTBETRIEBÈ0AREYÈ(AMBURGÈÈPP
3PELLMANNÈ (È È 3ICHERUNGÈ EINERÈ NACHHALTIGENÈ 7ALDENTWICKLUNGÈ AUFÈ àBERBETRIEBLICHENÈ
%BENENÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
3PELLMANNÈ(È(ILLEBRANDÈ+È#ORNELIUSÈ0È È+ONZEPTÈZURÈ%RFASSUNGÈUNDÈ3ICHERUNGÈDERÈ.ACH
HALTIGKEITÈINÈMULTIFUNKTIONALÈGENUTZTENÈ7ËLDERNÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈn
3TERBAÈ(È-OSERÈ-È-ONSERUDÈ2È È0ROGNAUSÈnÈEINÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈFàRÈ2EIN
ÈUNDÈ
-ISCHBESTËNDEÈ«STERRÈ&ORSTZÈn
4URBANÈ%È È$ECISIONÈSUPPORTÈANDÈEXPERTÈSYSTEMSÈ-ACMILLANÈ.EWÈ9ORK
5LRICHÈ"È È%NTWICKLUNGSPROGNOSENÈFàRÈ7ALDÚKOSYSTEMEÈAUSÈDERÈ3ICHTÈDERÈ(IERARCHIETËTS
THEORIEÈ&ORSTWÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
6ONÈ#ARLOWITZÈ(#È È3YLVICULTURAÈ/EKONOMICAÈODERÈ(AUWIRTHLICHEÈ.ACHRICHTÈUNDÈ.ATUR
MËIGEÈ!NWEISUNGÈZURÈWILDENÈ"AUM
:UCHTÈ"RAUNÈ,EIPZIG
6ONÈ 'ADOWÈ +È È 3TEUERUNGÈ UNDÈ !NALYSEÈ DERÈ 7ALDENTWICKLUNGÈ &ORSTWISSÈ #ENTRALBLÈ
n
7HITTAKERÈ2(È È#OMMUNITIESÈANDÈECOSYSTEMSÈ-ACMILLANÈ,ONDON
7IEGANDÈ 4È È $IEÈ ZEITLICH
RËUMLICHEÈ 0OPULATIONSDYNAMIKÈ VONÈ "RAUNBËRENÈ (ABILÈ 4HESISÈ
,UDWIG
-AXIMILIANSÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
#(!04%2È '+'
%VALUATINGÈ)NDIVIDUALÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ
-ODELS
C$IY^c_Zj"'@$DW][b"(@$F$Iaeli]WWhZ)
!BSTRACTÈ)NDIVIDUALÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈHAVEÈBECOMEÈIMPORTANTÈTOOLSÈFORÈFORESTÈMANAGE
MENTÈ 4HEREFOREÈ PROPERÈ MODELÈ EVALUATIONÈ CRITERIAÈ AREÈ OFÈ INCREASINGÈ INTERESTÈ TOÈ ACHIEVEÈ AÈ
CONSISTENTÈANDÈRELIABLEÈMANAGEMENTÈOUTPUTÈ'ENERALLYÈAÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈMODELÈCONSISTSÈOFÈ
AÈSETÈOFÈMODELÈCOMPONENTSÈORÈFUNCTIONSÈESTIMATEDÈINDEPENDENTLYÈORÈSIMULTANEOUSLYÈUSINGÈ
AÈRANGEÈOFÈDIFFERENTÈTECHNIQUESÈ7HILEÈANÈEVALUATIONÈSHOULDÈEXAMINEÈEACHÈINDIVIDUALÈMODELÈ
COMPONENTÈTHEÈOVERALLÈSYSTEMÈPERFORMANCEÈISÈUSUALLYÈCONSIDEREDÈMUCHÈMOREÈIMPORTANTÈ
)NÈTHISÈCHAPTERÈWEÈDISCUSSÈEVALUATIONÈCRITERIAÈWITHINÈTHREEÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈFOCUSINGÈONÈTHEÈ
GENERALÈMODELÈAPPROACHÈTHEÈPARAMETERISATIONÈANDÈESTIMATIONÈMETHODSÈVARIABLEÈSELECTIONÈ
ANDÈMODELÈSIMPLICITYÈBIOLOGICALÈREALISMÈASÈWELLÈASÈTHEÈCOMPATIBILITYÈANDÈRELIABILITY
È
)NTRODUCTION
CeZ[b[lWbkWj_ed_iWd_cfehjWdjfWhje\ceZ[bXk_bZ_d]"WdZiec[[nWc_dW#
j_ede\j^[ceZ[bi^ekbZX[cWZ[Wj[l[hoijW][e\ceZ[bZ[i_]d"\_jj_d]WdZ_c#
fb[c[djWj_edLWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-$M_j^j^[_dYh[Wi_d]ki[e\]hemj^
ceZ[bi _d ef[hWj_edWb \eh[ijho W fhef[h ceZ[b [lWbkWj_ed cWo X[ YhkY_Wb je
WY^_[l_d]ikijW_dWXb[cWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[i$7iWd[nWcfb["j^[h[_iWZ_h[Yjb_da
\hecj^[fh[Y_i_edWdZWYYkhWYoe\ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edijeWdefj_c_iWj_ede\j^[
[Yedec_Yh[l[dk[e\cWdW][c[djef[hWj_edi$
<ehfhWYj_YWbWffb_YWj_edfkhfei[iWd[lWbkWj_edi^ekbZYecfh_i[ceZ[b#É_d#
j[hdWbÉWim[bbWiceZ[b#É[nj[hdWbÉfhef[hj_[i$CeZ[b#_dj[hdWbfhef[hj_[ih[bWj[je
X_ebe]_YWb"cWj^[cWj_YWbWdZijWj_ij_YWbWif[Yjie\WceZ[b"m^[h[WiceZ[b#É[nj[h#
dWbÉfhef[hj_[ih[bWj[cW_dbojej^[ef[hWjeh_dj[h\WY[$Ceh[if[Y_\_YWbbo"ceZ[b#[n#
j[hdWbfhef[hj_[i_dYbkZ[ceZ[bjhWdifWh[dYo"ceZ[bZeYkc[djWj_ed"ZWjW_dfkj
WdZ ekjfkj \[Wjkh[i" ie\j# WdZ ^WhZmWh[ h[gk_h[c[dji" \b[n_X_b_jo _d Wffb_YWj_ed"
j^[fej[dj_Wb\eh_dj[]hWj_ede\j^[ceZ[b_djej^[\beme\_d\ehcWj_ed_d\eh[ij#
hofhWYj_Y[WdZ"ceh[][d[hWbbo"ki[hWYY[fjWdY[Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&(1HeX_died
' [#cW_b0cWjj^_Wi$iY^c_Zj6\ehij$Xmb$Z[
( <eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo")-&-/=jj_d][d"=[hcWdo
) HeoWbL[j[h_dWhoWdZ7]h_YkbjkhWbKd_l[hi_jo":Wd_i^9[djh[\eh<eh[ij"BWdZiYWf[WdZFbWd#
d_d]"(/-&>´hi^ebc":[dcWha
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
'+( #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
WdZCedi[hkZ(&&)$FhWYj_YWbh[b[lWdY[YekbZX[WZZ[ZWiWdel[hWhY^_d]_iik[
_dWdoceZ[b[lWbkWj_edjWh][j[ZjemWhZi\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$
?dWXheWZ[hf[hif[Yj_l["j^[gkWb_j_[ie\W\eh[ijceZ[bcWoX[X[ijh[\b[Yj#
[ZXo_jikj_b_jo\ehikijW_dWX_b_joYedi_Z[hWj_edi$>em[l[h"Wjj^_iijW][edbo\[m
ceZ[bi\ehki[_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[djWh[YWfWXb[e\WZZh[ii_d]j^[ckbj_#Z_c[d#
i_edWbdWjkh[e\j^[X_ebe]_YWb"ieY_WbWdZ[Yedec_Y\WYjehij^Wj^[bfZ[\_d[iki#
jW_dWX_b_joCedi[hkZ(&&)$
È
%VALUATIONÈ4OPICS
=[d[hWbbo" W \eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[b Yedi_iji e\ W i[j e\ ceZ[b Yecfed[dji eh
\kdYj_edi"[ij_cWj[Z_dZ[f[dZ[djboehi_ckbjWd[ekiboki_d]WhWd][e\Z_\\[h[dj
j[Y^d_gk[i$M^_b[Wd[lWbkWj_edi^ekbZ[nWc_d[[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWbceZ[bYecfe#
d[dj"j^[el[hWbbioij[cf[h\ehcWdY[_ikikWbboYedi_Z[h[Zh[bWj_l[boceh[_cfeh#
jWdj$ J^_i iec[^em YedjhWZ_Yji j^[ m[bb#ademd fheXb[c j^Wj bem#gkWb_jo _dfkj
b[WZijebem#gkWb_joekjfkj"Xkjh[\b[Yjij^Wjel[hWbbceZ[bf[h\ehcWdY[_i][d#
[hWbbo Yedi_Z[h[Z ]eeZ m^[d fh[Z_Yj_edi Wh[ ik\\_Y_[djbo WYYkhWj[" Z_ih[]WhZ_d]
m^[j^[h[ii[dj_WbceZ[bYecfed[djiWh[WbbWYYkhWj[eh[hhehi_dZ_\\[h[djYec#
fed[djiYWdY[b[WY^ej^[h$
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed e\ \eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[bi _i ^_]^bo ikX`[Yj_l[" hWd]_d] \hec
Y^e_Y[ e\ lWh_WXb[i" ceZ[b \kdYj_edi WdZ YWb_XhWj_ed ZWjW" je Z[j[hc_dWj_ed e\
j^h[i^ebZ lWbk[i _d \_dWb j[iji$ <khj^[hceh[" [lWbkWj_ed Yh_j[h_W YWddej X[ Z_#
lehY[Z\hec[lWbkWj_edeX`[Yj_l[i$J^_ic[Wdij^Wjj^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\Y^eei_d]
Wif[Y_\_YWffheWY^i^ekbZX[YWh[\kbboYedi_Z[h[ZZkh_d]ceZ[bYedijhkYj_edWi
m[bbWiZkh_d]j^[[lWbkWj_edfheY[ii$Kd\ehjkdWj[bo"j^[i[[b[c[djWhofh_dY_fb[i
Wh[e\j[del[hbeea[Z$
?dYedjhWijjeijWdZb[l[bceZ[bi_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[bi][d[hWbboWYYekdjX[j#
j[h\ehifWj_WblWh_Wj_ed_dj^[ijWdZ$>em[l[h"ceh[Z[jW_b[Z_d\ehcWj_ed_id[[Z#
[Z je YWb_XhWj[ WdZ ki[ j^[i[ ceZ[bi$ ?d ef[hWj_edWb \eh[ijho" ikY^ _d\ehcWj_ed
cWo eh_]_dWj[ \hec m[bb#jWh][j[Z jhWZ_j_edWb _dl[djeh_[i [$]$ 8YacWdd [j Wb$
'//.eh_dl[djeh_[iXWi[Zedh[cej[i[di_d][$]$:hWbb[WdZHkZ[ce'//-1D[b#
ied[jWb$'//-1JWhf#@e^Wdi[d(&&(W"X1Fef[iYk[jWb$(&&)$8Wi[ZedceZ[bb_d]
e\X[jm[[d#jh[[_dj[hWYj_edi"_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[biWh[[if[Y_Wbboki[\kb\ehef#
j_c_i_d]cWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[ih[]WhZ_d]\eh[ijjof[iWdZi_bl_YkbjkhWbioij[ci
m^_Y^Wh[ceh[Yecfb[nj^Wd[l[d#W][Zcede#if[Y_\_YfbWdjWj_edioij[cikdZ[h
j^[Yb[Wh#Ykjj_d]ioij[c$
?dWZZ_j_edjeYh_j[h_Wki[Z\eh]hemj^ceZ[bij^Wjef[hWj[WjWceh[W]]h[#
]Wj[b[l[b"j^[[lWbkWj_ede\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[bii^ekbZif[Y_\_YWbboWZZh[iij^[
h[fh[i[djWj_ede\j^[fefkbWj_ede\jh[[i"j^[fefkbWj_edZodWc_Yi_$[$j^[_dj[h#
WYj_edX[jm[[d_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i"WdZj^[[\\[Yjie\cWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[edfef#
kbWj_edZodWc_Yi$EXl_ekibo"j^[_Z[dj_\_YWj_ede\h[b[lWdjceZ[bY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi
WdZh[b[lWdj[lWbkWj_edc[j^eZiX[Yec[iceh[Z_\\_Ykbjm_j^_dYh[Wi_d]ceZ[b
Yecfb[n_jo$
FheY[Zkh[i"Yh_j[h_WWdZj[iji\ehki[_dj^[[lWbkWj_ede\\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bi
^Wl[X[[dZeYkc[dj[ZXodkc[hekiWkj^ehi[$]$LWdYbWo'//*1IeWh[i[jWb$'//+1
È -ODELÈ&ORMÈ0ARAMETERISATIONÈANDÈ%STIMATIONÈ-ETHODS '+)
LWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-1Fh[jpiY^(&&'1Fh[jpiY^WdZ:khia(&&'1Fh[jpiY^
[jWb$(&&(1>kWd][jWb$(&&)1HeX_diedWdZCedi[hkZ(&&)$>[h["m[\eYkicW_d#
boedj^[[lWbkWj_ede\ceZ[b#_dj[hdWbfhef[hj_[i"m_j^Wd[cf^Wi_iedfh_dY_fb[i
hWj^[hj^Wdif[Y_\_Yj[Y^d_gk[i$
<eh [lWbkWj_ed e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi" j^[ \ebbem_d] cW_d jef_Yi
i^ekbZX[Yedi_Z[h[ZLWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-"ceZ_\_[Z0
'$ CeZ[b\ehc"fWhWc[j[h_iWj_edWdZ[ij_cWj_edc[j^eZi$
($ LWh_WXb[i[b[Yj_edWdZceZ[bi_cfb_Y_jo$
)$ 8_ebe]_YWbh[Wb_ic$
*$ 9ecfWj_X_b_jo$
+$ H[b_WX_b_jo$
È
-ODELÈ&ORMÈ0ARAMETERISATIONÈANDÈ%STIMATIONÈ-ETHODS
7\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bi^ekbZWZ[gkWj[boh[\b[Yjj^[j[cfehWbZ[l[befc[dje\
h[b[lWdjc[dikhWj_edWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWjjh[[WdZijWdZb[l[bWim[bbWiWbbec[jh_Y
h[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[dj^[i[lWh_WXb[i$=hemj^X[^Wl_ekh_ie\j[dceZ[bb[Zki_d]
ded#b_d[WhcWj^[cWj_YWb\kdYj_edi"m^_b[Wbbec[jh_Yh[bWj_edi^_fiWh[ceZ[bb[Z
ki_d]b_d[WhWdZfem[h\kdYj_edi$
7d Wffhefh_Wj[ h[fh[i[djWj_ed e\ j^[ ckbj_#Z_c[di_edWb dWjkh[ e\ j^[ \eh#
[ijWdZ_ji]hemj^ZodWc_Yi^Wibed]X[[d"WdZij_bb_i"WcW`ehY^Wbb[d][$E\j[d"
]hemj^ceZ[bb[hih[iehjjeh[bWj_l[boi_cfb[h[]h[ii_edceZ[bim_j^WdkcX[he\
ceh[ehb[iikdYehh[bWj[ZfWhWc[j[hi$IkY^ceZ[bicWodejh[\b[Yjj^[j[cfehWb
WdZifWj_WbYehh[bWj_ed_dj^[ZWjW"ehj^[oh[boediec[a_dZe\Wfh_eh_fh_dY_fb[
_dceZ[bYedijhkYj_ed"\eh[nWcfb["H[_d[a[Éihkb[\ehijWdZZ[di_joeh;_Y^^ehdÉi
hkb[\ehj^[h[bWj_edX[jm[[d^[_]^jWdZijWdZlebkc[]hemj^[$]$Fh[jpiY^(&&'$
?dYedjhWij"ikY^hkb[iWdZfh_dY_fb[iWh[e\j[dWffhefh_Wj[\eh[lWbkWj_edfkhfei#
[im^[dj^[om[h[dej_dYbkZ[ZWfh_eh__dceZ[bYedijhkYj_ed$
J^[ X_ebe]_YWb dWjkh[ e\ j^[ ceZ[b cWo X[ [nWc_d[Z Xo YecfWh_d] Z[h_lW#
j_l[i"b_c_ji"cWn_cW"c_d_cW"_d\b[Yj_edfe_djiWdZej^[hcWj^[cWj_YWbfhef[h#
j_[i$7bj^ek]^iec[][d[hWbfh_dY_fb[iWffbo"Wfhe\[ii_edWb\eh[ij[hÉi`kZ][c[dj
cWo X[ d[[Z[Z$ ?d j[hci e\ ijWj_ij_YWb fhef[hj_[i" j^[ Yecfhec_i[ _i ][d[hWbbo
if[Wa_d]X[jm[[dceZ[b\b[n_X_b_joWdZel[h#fWhWc[j[h_iWj_ed$Dekd_l[hiWbYh_#
j[h_W[n_ij\ehj^_iYecfhec_i["Xkji[l[hWbijWj_ij_YWbj[ijiWh[WlW_bWXb["[WY^ed[
ik_jWXb[\ehZ_\\[h[djfkhfei[i$
Ed j^[ fhWYj_YWb%X_ebe]_YWb i_Z[" j^[ _cfb[c[djWj_ed e\ ijWj_ij_YWb YedY[fji
i^ekbZdejX[YedijhW_d[ZXoh[iekhY[iehj[Y^debe]o$<eh[nWcfb["j^[È_\$$$j^[d$$$
[bi[$$$[dZ_\ ÉijhkYjkh[e\j^[Yecfkj[hbWd]kW][i^ekbZdejb[WZjej^[ki[e\edÄ
e\\X[^Wl_ekhhWj^[hj^WdW]hWZkWbf^Wi_d]_dWdZekj"m^[dj^[bWjj[hcWoX[
ceh[Wffhefh_Wj[$
Ceh[ j^ehek]^ [lWbkWj_edi cWo Wbie Yedi_Z[h XWi_Y ijWj_ij_YWb fhef[hj_[i e\
j^[ceZ[b$Ed[e\j^[ceij_cfehjWdjY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yie\ded#b_d[Wh]hemj^ceZ#
[bi_ij^[Z[]h[[e\ie#YWbb[Z_djh_di_Yded#b_d[Wh_joHWjaemiao'/.)"'//&"h[#
\b[Yj_d] je m^_Y^ Z[]h[[ fWhWc[j[h [ij_cWj[i Wh[ XWi[Z ed kdX_Wi[Z" dehcWbbo
'+* #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
È
6ARIABLEÈ3ELECTIONÈANDÈ-ODELÈ3IMPLICITY
?dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bie\j[dki[È_dZ[f[dZ[djÉlWh_WXb[iikY^Wii_j[
_dZ[n" jh[[ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi WdZ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ_Y[i \eh ceZ[bb_d] jh[[ ]hemj^
WdZ ijWdZ ZodWc_Yi$ Fh[Z_Yjeh lWh_WXb[i Wh[ e\j[d Z[h_l[Z \hec ej^[h lWh_WXb[i
j^Wj Wh[ c[Wikh[Z Z_h[Yjbo \eh [nWcfb[" Yhemd b[d]j^ Wi W fh[Z_Yjeh lWh_WXb[
cWoX[Z[h_l[Z\hecjh[[^[_]^jm^_Y^"_djkhd"_iZ[h_l[Z\hecc[Wikh[ZZ_Wc#
[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^j$Jeh[ZkY[[hhehfhefW]Wj_ed"Yebb_d[Wh_jo"lWh_WdY[_d\bWj_ed
WdZi_c_bWhfheXb[ci"fh[Z_YjehlWh_WXb[ii^ekbZX[Y^ei[dWiYbei[Wifeii_Xb[
jeeh_]_dWbboc[Wikh[ZlWh_WXb[i$D[l[hj^[b[ii"Z[h_l[ZlWh_WXb[im_bbYedj_dk[je
fbWoWd_cfehjWdjheb[Wifh[Z_Yjehi_d\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biX[YWki[j^[oj^[c#
i[bl[i c[Wd_d]\kbbo _dj[]hWj[ WdZ h[\b[Yj i_j[" ijWdZ eh jh[[ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$ J^_i
ijh[ii[ij^[d[[Z\ehfhe\[ii_edWb_di_]^jWim[bbWiijWj_ij_YWbia_bbim^[di[b[Yj#
_d]h[b[lWdjlWh_WXb[i$
7hWd][e\Z_\\[h[djijWj_ij_YWbboXWi[Zc[j^eZiWh[WlW_bWXb[\ehlWh_WXb[i[b[Y#
j_ed"_dYbkZ_d]j[iji\ehj^[d[[ZjejhWdi\ehclWh_WXb[i$E\j[d"lWh_WXb[i[b[Yj_ed
_iYWhh_[Zekj_di[l[hWb"i[gk[dj_Wbij[fi"X[]_dd_d]m_j^h[bWj_l[boi_cfb[kd_lWh_#
Wj[Yedi_Z[hWj_edi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbceZ[bYecfed[dji"b[WZ_d]jeW\_dWb"ceh[Yec#
fb[n Yecfhec_i[ \eh j^[ m^eb[ ceZ[b$ ?d j^_i fheY[ii" j^[ X[ij YecX_dWj_ed e\
lWh_WXb[i\heckd_lWh_Wj[i[b[Yj_edfheY[Zkh[iZe[idejWkjecWj_YWbbob[WZjej^[
ÈX[ijÉYecX_dWj_ed\ehj^[ceZ[bWjbWh][$J^_iZ[f[dZiedj^[Yehh[bWj_edijhkY#
jkh[_dj^[el[hWbbceZ[b$
M_j^c_n[ZceZ[bicWdoe\j^[]hWf^_YWbc[j^eZiWdZZ_W]deij_YiWffhefh_#
Wj[\ehj^[][d[hWbb_d[WhWdZded#b_d[WhceZ[b[nj[dZjej^[c_n[ZceZ[bi[j#
j_d]Wim[bb$<khj^[hceh["Wb_a[b_^eeZ#XWi[ZWffheWY^fhel_Z[ii[l[hWbijWj_ij_YWb
c[Wikh[ie\ceZ[bWZ[gkWYo$J^[ceijYeccede\j^[i[Wh[j^[b_a[b_^eeZhWj_e
j[ijWdZ7aW_a[ÉiWdZIY^mWhpÉYh_j[h_W$
?dfhWYj_Y["ceh[j^Wded[c[j^eZ_ie\j[dki[Z\eh[WY^ceZ[bYecfed[dj_d
ehZ[hjeYedjhWijZ_\\[h[djYecX_dWj_edie\fh[Z_YjehiWh_i_d]\hecZ_\\[h[dji[#
b[Yj_edYh_j[h_W$J^h[i^ebZlWbk[i\eh[djhoe\WlWh_WXb[cWoX[h[bWn[Zje[dikh[
fhWYj_YWbh[b[lWdY[[$]$Iaeli]WWhZ'//-W$<_dWbbo"lWh_WXb[iWdZlWh_WXb[YecX_#
dWj_edi_dYbkZ[Z_dehec_jj[Z\hecj^[ceZ[bWiWh[ikbje\j^[fWhWc[j[h_iW#
j_edfheY[iii^ekbZX[YecfWh[Zm_j^[nf[YjWj_ediWdZh[l_[m[Z\ehfbWki_X_b_#
joWdZfhWYj_YWbh[b[lWdY[$
<ebbem_d] j^[ Z_Yjkc e\ EYa^WcÉi hWpeh Æ[dj_j_[i i^ekbZ dej X[ ckbj_fb_[Z
X[oedZd[Y[ii_joÇj^[gk[ij\ehi_cfb_Y_jo^WiX[Yec[WXWi_Yfh_dY_fb[_dj^[
dWjkhWbiY_[dY[i[$]$A[kp[daWcfWdZCY7b[[h'//+1CY7bb_ij[h'//,$M_j^\eh#
[ij]hemj^ceZ[bii_cfb_Y_jo][d[hWbboh[\[hijej^[be]_YWbX[^Wl_ekhe\WceZ#
[b"j^[dkcX[he\ijWj[lWh_WXb[i"WdZj^[dkcX[hWdZdWjkh[e\[ij_cWj[ZfWhWc#
[j[hih[bWj_l[jej^[ceZ[bÉifh[Z_Yj_l[WX_b_jo$J^[dkcX[he\ijWj[lWh_WXb[iWdZ
fWhWc[j[hii^ekbZX[a[fjjeWc_d_ckc$CWj^[cWj_YWbef[hWjehiWdZ\kdYj_edi
i^ekbZ X[ Wi [b[c[djWho Wi feii_Xb[ WdZ fh[Z_Yj_ed WYYkhWYo cWn_c_i[Z [$]$
8kha^Whj(&&)1=WhYW(&&)$7ifhe`[Yj_edf[h_eZ_dYh[Wi[iceZ[bZ_c[di_edWb#
_joi^ekbZkikWbboZ[Yh[Wi[je]_l[j^[iWc[b[l[be\fh[Z_Yj_edWYYkhWYoAW^d[
'/-,$J^_ih[bWj_ed_im[bbademd_dej^[hWh[Wie\iY_[dY["Xkj[nY[fj\ehiec[
'+, #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
\[m[nWcfb[i[$]$B[Who'/-/18kha^Whj(&&)_j^Widejh[Y[_l[ZckY^Wjj[dj_ed
_d\eh[ijceZ[bb_d]$
J^[dkcX[hWdZYecX_dWj_edie\fh[Z_YjehlWh_WXb[ii^ekbZX[h[ijh_Yj[Zje
h[b[lWdjX_ebe]_YWbehi_bl_YkbjkhWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yiehj^ei[j^Wj_cfhel[fh[Z_Yj_ed
WYYkhWYo Yedi_Z[hWXbo$ 7bj^ek]^ Z[h_l[Z gkWdj_j_[i ikY^ Wi i_j[ _dZ[n eh meeZ
lebkc[cWoX[h[b[lWdjfh[Z_Yjehi"eh_]_dWbboc[Wikh[ZlWh_WXb[ii^ekbZX[fh[#
\[hh[Zm^[d[l[hfeii_Xb[$KikWbbo"j^[cW]d_jkZ[_dY^Wd][ie\Y[hjW_dceZ[bijW#
j_ij_Yi_iki[ZjeYedjhebm^[j^[hj^[_cfhel[c[djYWki[ZXoWfh[Z_Yjehh[WY^[i
j^h[i^ebZlWbk[i\eh_ji_dYbki_edeh[nYbki_ed$
È
"IOLOGICALÈ2EALISM
I_c_bWhjej^[Whji"h[Wb_ic_dceZ[bb_d]_cfb_[iWdWYYkhWj["Z[jW_b[Z"kd[c#
X[bb_i^[ZZ[f_Yj_ede\dWjkh[ehe\Yedj[cfehWhob_\[1h[Wb_ich[`[Yji_cW]_dWj_l[
_Z[Wb_iWj_ed _d \Wlekh e\ W Ybei[ eXi[hlWj_ed e\ ekjmWhZ Wff[WhWdY[i Y\$ ;dYo#
Ybef³Z_W8h_jWdd_YW(&&)$IY_[dj_\_YWbbo"h[Wb_ic_cfb_[ij^Wjj^[ceZ[behj^[eho
_ieX`[Yj_l[bojhk[eh\Wbi[XWi[Zed_jiYehh[ifedZ[dY[ehbWYae\_jjeWd_dZ[#
f[dZ[djbo[n_ij_d]h[Wb_jo$Ie"eXl_ekiboh[Wb_ic_dceZ[bb_d]ijh_l[i\ehW\W_j^\kb
h[fh[i[djWj_ede\j^[eX`[Yj_dgk[ij_ed$
?dj^[Yedj[nje\\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biX_ebe]_YWbh[Wb_ich[\[hijeX_ebe]_YWb
]hemj^f[hi[Wim[bbWiceZ[bb_d]e\j^[i_j[#if[Y_\_Yh[ifedi[e\jh[[iWdZijWdZ
jei_bl_YkbjkhWbfhWYj_Y[i$?ji^ekbZX[dej[Z"^em[l[h"j^WjceijcWdW][c[dj#eh_#
[dj[Z \eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[bi bWYa b_dai je j^[ kdZ[hbo_d] YWki[i e\ fheZkYj_l_jo
WdZ]hemj^$J^_id[[Zdej^Wcf[hWd[lWbkWj_ede\ej^[hWif[Yjie\X_ebe]_YWbh[#
Wb_ic"XkjZ[\_d_j[boi[jiY[hjW_db_c_ji$
?dWZZ_j_edjej^[fbWki_X_b_joe\fh[Z_YjehYecX_dWj_ediWceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed
i^ekbZY^[Yam^[j^[hj^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yjii[di_Xb[h[ifedi[ijecWdW][c[djWY#
j_ediel[hj^[hWd][e\]hemj^YedZ_j_edi$J^_i_iYedjhebb[ZXoj^[i_]dWdZcW]#
d_jkZ[e\fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[i$?cfbWki_Xb[ceZ[bX[^Wl_ekh_ikikWbbo[Wi_[hje
Z[j[Yj gkWb_jWj_l[bo j^Wd gkWdj_jWj_l[bo$ GkWb_jWj_l[ _cfbWki_X_b_jo e\j[d h[ikbji
\hec _dYehh[Yj Ye[\\_Y_[dj i_]d WdZ cWo X[ Z[j[Yj[Z Xo YecfWh_d] ceZ[b X[#
^Wl_ekhm_j^[nf[YjWj_ediXWi[ZedYkhh[djkdZ[hijWdZ_d]e\]hemj^fheY[ii[i$
GkWdj_jWj_l[fbWki_X_b_jocWoX[_dl[ij_]Wj[Zki_d]cWjh_nfbejie\fh[Z_Yj_edh[#
ikbjiYWbYkbWj[ZXolWho_d][WY^fh[Z_YjehlWh_WXb[m_j^_d_jiX_ebe]_YWbhWd]["h[#
jW_d_d]Wbbej^[hfh[Z_YjehiWiYedijWdj[$]$IeWh[i[jWb$'//+1B[Who'//-1LWdYbWo
WdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-$
?cfbWki_X_b_jo cWo h[ikbj \hec _dWZ[gkWj[ ceZ[b if[Y_\_YWj_ed _dYbkZ_d]
el[h#fWhWc[j[h_iWj_edehb_c_jWj_edi_dYWb_XhWj_edZWjW$J^_i_cfb_[ij^WjWbbh[b#
[lWdjZWjWi^ekbZX[ki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_ed"m^_b[[lWbkWj_edii^ekbZX[YWhh_[Zekj
ki_d]_dZ[f[dZ[djZWjW_\WlW_bWXb[WdZh[iWcfb_d]fheY[Zkh[iikY^WiYheii#
lWb_ZWj_ed"Xeej#ijhWff_d]WdZ`WYa#ad_\_d]LWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-$?dZ[#
f[dZ[djZWjWcWo"\eh[nWcfb["eh_]_dWj[\hecej^[h]hemj^h[]_edi"Z_\\[h[djbo
cWdW][ZijWdZi"ceh[h[Y[djZWjWYebb[Yj_edehej^[h\eh[ijWZc_d_ijhWj_edi$7d
_cfehjWdjlWh_Wj_ededi_d]b[#eXi[hlWj_edh[iWcfb_d]_ijeec_j]hekfie\ZWjW"
\eh[nWcfb["WYYehZ_d]je][e]hWf^_YbeYWj_ed"W][YbWii"cWdW][c[djh[]_c[eh
È "IOLOGICALÈ2EALISM '+-
ej^[hYh_j[h_W[$]$JWhf#@e^Wdi[d[jWb$'//-$?j_iWm[bb#ademd\WYjj^WjceZ[b
[lWbkWj_ediXWi[Zedh[iWcfb_d]fhel_Z[ceh[efj_c_ij_Y[lWbkWj_edie\h[Wb_ic
j^Wdm^[dXWi[Zed_dZ[f[dZ[djZWjW[$]$H[odebZiWdZ9^kd]'/.,1>kWd][j
Wb$(&&)$
8_ebe]_YWb h[Wb_ic eXl_ekibo Z[f[dZi ^_]^bo ed ZWjW gkWb_jo" Xkj e\j[d ZW#
jWgkWb_jo_idejYedi_Z[h[Zik\\_Y_[djbo[$]$LWdYbWo[jWb$'//+$7ceZ[b[lWbkW#
j_edi^ekbZWbie_dYbkZ[Wif[Yjie\ZWjWgkWb_jo"WdZif[Y_\_YWbboj^[_Z[dj_\_YWj_ed
e\Wh[Wim^[h[h[c[Z_WbiWcfb_d]cWoX[Z[i_hWXb[eh\khj^[h[nf[h_c[djWj_ed_i
d[[Z[Z[$]$8[[jied[jWb$'//($
:k[jeceh[Z[jW_bi_dj^[ceZ[bj^[_Z[dj_\_YWj_ede\h[b[lWdjj[ijgkWdj_j_[i
WdZ gkWb_j_[i _i [if[Y_Wbbo Yh_j_YWb m_j^ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ceZ[bi$ 7]W_d" cWjh_n
fbejicWoX[^[bf\kbjejhWY[h[b[lWdj_iik[iWim[bbWikd[nf[Yj[ZehkdZ[i_h[Z
ceZ[bX[^Wl_ekh$CeZ[bb_d]WjWceh[Z[jW_b[Zb[l[be\j[db[WZije]h[Wj[h\b[n_#
X_b_jo_dceZ[bX[^Wl_ekhWdZ_dYh[Wi_d]h_iae\\_jj_d]iec[fWhjie\j^[ceZ[b
jehWdZec\bkYjkWj_edi_djh[[]hemj^WdZijWdZZodWc_Yi$J^_ii^ekbZX[Wle_Z#
[ZXoY^eei_d]heXkijceZ[b\kdYj_edi"[nWc_d_d]i[di_j_l_jojeceZ[b_dfkjWdZ
j[ij_d]\ehheXkijd[iiWjZ_\\[h[djceZ[bb_d]b[l[bi[$]$>kX[h(&&*$
8[YWki[ e\ j^[ _dYh[Wi_d] Yecfb[n_jo e\ \eh[ij ceZ[bi" dkc[h_YWb c[j^eZi
WdZ8Wo[i_Wdc[j^eZiWh[X[Yec_d]ceh[WdZceh[_cfehjWdj_dceZ[b[lWbkW#
j_ed$7iWd[nWcfb["Cedj[9Whbei_ckbWj_edi^Wl[X[[dikYY[ii\kbboki[Z\ehZ[#
j[Yj_d]j^[kdY[hjW_dj_[iWdZi[di_j_l_j_[ie\]hemj^ceZ[bi[$]$L[hX[[Ya[jWb$
(&&)$7iWdej^[h[nWcfb["8Wo[i_Wdc[j^eZi"m^_Y^Wh[XWi[Zedfh_eh_d\ehcW#
j_eded_dfkjZ_ijh_Xkj_ediWdZYehh[bWj_ediX[jm[[d_dfkjlWh_WXb[i"^Wl[X[[d
ki[Z\ehWii[ii_d]j^[kdY[hjW_dj_[ie\Z_\\[h[djceZ[bjof[i=[hjd[h[jWb$'///1
=h[[d[jWb$(&&&1HWZja[[jWb$(&&($
7if[Y_WbWif[Yje\X_ebe]_YWbh[Wb_ic\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[bi_ij^[ifWj_Wb
Z_c[di_ed$;nY[fj\ehl[hoi_cfb[ifWj_WbfWjj[hdi"j^_ieXl_ekibo_dlebl[i][eijW#
j_ij_YWbc[j^eZi$M^[difWj_Wb_d\ehcWj_ed_idejWlW_bWXb[iec[ceZ[bi_d_j_Wbbo
Z[h_l[j^_i\hec_dl[djehoZWjWWj^WdZ"h[boedi_ckbWj_edhkdi"fh[Z_Yjj^[Z[#
l[befc[dje\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iWdZ"_\h[gk_h[Z"W]]h[]Wj[h[ikbjiXWYajej^[ijWdZ
b[l[b$7bj^ek]^j^_ifheY[iicWoi[[cWX_jeZZ"_j_i][d[hWbboX[b_[l[Zjefhel_Z[
ik_jWXb[h[ikbjiWdZceh[_di_]^jj^WdcWoX[WY^_[l[Z\hecehZ_dWhoijWdZb[l#
[bceZ[bi$IfWj_Wbbo[nfb_Y_jijkZ_[iWdZceZ[bi^Wl[X[[dWlW_bWXb[Wbceiji_dY[
j^[WZl[dje\YbWii_YWbo_[bZjWXb[i"m^_b[ik_jWXb[YWb_XhWj_edWdZ[lWbkWj_edc[j^#
eZiWh[edbo`kijX[]_dd_d]je[c[h][[$]$=[hjd[h(&&)1MWjj[jWb$(&&*18hkd#
d[h[jWb$"j^_iLeb$$
I_dY[\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biWh[e\j[dki[Z\ehbed]#j[hc\eh[YWiji"_j_ifWhj_Y#
kbWhbo_cfehjWdjj^Wjj^[o[njhWfebWj[m[bbX[oedZj^[YWb_XhWj_edhWd][$J^_i_i
ijh[ii[ZXoj^[\WYjj^WjceZ[bYWb_XhWj_edWbceij_d[l_jWXbo_iYWhh_[Zekjki_d]
^_ijeh_YWbZWjWh[YehZi$J^[i[cWodejh[\b[Yj\kjkh[Yb_cWj[WdZY^Wd]_d]i_bl_#
YkbjkhWbfhWYj_Y[i$J^_iYWbbi\ehWd[m][d[hWj_ede\cWdW][c[dj#eh_[dj[Z\eh[ij
]hemj^ceZ[biYWfWXb[e\WZWfj_d]jeY^Wd]_d]]hemj^YedZ_j_ediWdZcWdW][#
c[djfhWYj_Y[iIaeli]WWhZWdZLWdYbWo(&&'$Ej^[hm_i["m[h_iah[Wb_joX[Yec#
_d]WdWffhen_cWj_edjeekhceZ[bWdZdejl_Y[l[hiW$
'+. #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
È
#OMPATIBILITY
?d j^[ Yedj[nj e\ \eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[bi" YecfWj_X_b_jo _cfb_[i cWj^[cWj_YWb
Yedi_ij[dYom_j^_dW]_l[dceZ[behX[jm[[dZ_\\[h[djceZ[bi$J^[_Z[We\Yec#
fWj_X_b_jom_j^_dWceZ[b_ij^Wjo_[bZ[ij_cWj[iYWdX[Z[h_l[Z\hec]hemj^[i#
j_cWj[iWdZl_Y[l[hiWWdZj^Wj[ij_cWj[ie\Yecfei_j[lWh_WXb[i\eh[nWcfb["
lebkc[Wh[YWbYkbWj[Z\hecceh[XWi_YlWh_WXb[i\eh[nWcfb["XWiWbWh[W"^[_]^j
WdZ \ehc \WYjeh hWj^[h j^Wd ceZ[bb[Z _dZ[f[dZ[djbo$ Ceh[el[h" _\ W Yecfei#
_j[lWh_WXb[cWoX[Z[h_l[Z_dZ_\\[h[djmWoi"j^[i[i^ekbZfhel_Z[_Z[dj_YWb[ij_#
cWj[i$J^[i[fh_dY_fb[i^Wl[X[[d\kdZWc[djWb_d\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bb_d]_d;k#
hef[i_dY[j^[\_hijiY_[dj_\_YWbboXWi[Zo_[bZjWXb[i[c[h][Z_dj^[bWj['-&&iWdZ
\eh ikXi[gk[dj cWj^[cWj_YWb ceZ[bi$ E\j[d" ijWdZ b[l[b [ij_cWj[i e\ XWiWb Wh[W"
^[_]^jWdZlebkc[m[h[]_l[d^_]^[ijfh_eh_jo_dj[hcie\WYYkhWYo"m_j^kd[n#
fbW_d[Z[hhehÈ^_ZZ[dÉ_dj^[\ehc\WYjeheh[bi[m^[h[$
M_j^ j^[ WZl[dj e\ cWj^[cWj_YWb \eh[ij ceZ[bi _d Dehj^7c[h_YW" YecfWj_#
X_b_jomWih[Z_iYel[h[Z8kYacWd'/,(19bkjj[h'/,)WdZikXi[gk[djbo[nfWdZ#
[Zjeh[\[hWbiejej^[Yedi_ij[dYoe\[ij_cWj[i\hecZ_\\[h[djceZ[bjof[i$M^[d
ceZ[biWh[YecfWj_Xb[\hec_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[b[l[bj^hek]^lWh_ekiW]]h[]Wj_edije
j^[ijWdZb[l[b"fhel_Z_d]Yedi_ij[dj[ij_cWj[ie\jh[[WdZijWdZfhef[hj_[i"j^[o
Wh[iW_Zje\ehcWd_dj[]hWj[Zioij[ce\\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[bi:Wd_[biWdZ8kh#
a^Whj'/..$IkY^Wioij[cfhel_Z[i]eeZeffehjkd_j_[ijeYecfWh[cWdW][c[dj
Wbj[hdWj_l[iWjZ_\\[h[djb[l[bie\h[iebkj_ed$<eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[biYecfWj_#
X_b_joe\ijWdZb[l[b[ij_cWj[i_iWZ[i_hWXb[fhef[hjoj^Wji^ekbZX[j[ij[ZZkh_d]
WdZW\j[hYedijhkYj_ed$
9ecfWj_X_b_jo_dWijh_Yji[di[_ifeii_Xb[edbo\ehZ[j[hc_d_ij_YceZ[bi$M_j^
ijeY^Wij_YceZ[bih[Wb_iWj_edim_bbZ_\\[hX[jm[[di_ckbWj_edhkdi$9edi[gk[dj#
bo"Wd[lWbkWj_ede\YecfWj_X_b_jo\ehijeY^Wij_YceZ[bih[gk_h[ifh[Z[\_d[Zb_c_ji
\ehj^[WYY[fjWXb["ceijb_a[boZ[l_Wj_ed"\eh[nWcfb[XWi[Zed[dZ#ki[hh[gk_h[#
c[dji e\ fh[Z_Yj_ed WYYkhWYo$ 9ecfWj_X_b_jo \eh Z_\\[h[dj fhe`[Yj_ed b[d]j^ _i W
if[Y_WblWh_Wj_ede\j^_ij^[c[[$]$IeWh[i[jWb$'//+$:_\\[h[dY[ieYYkhWdZfei#
i_XboWYYkckbWj[m^[dj^[fh[Z_Yj[ZlWbk[iW\j[h[WY^ijeY^Wij_Yi_ckbWj_edij[f
Wh[ki[ZWi_dfkj\ehj^[d[njij[fe\i_ckbWj_edi$J^_icWoW\\[Yj]hemj^fh[Z_Y#
j_edib[iij^Wdj^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\WZZ_j_edWbboZ[h_l[ZlWh_WXb[iikY^WimeeZgkWb#
_joIY^c_Zj(&&'$7iWdWZlWdjW]["j^_ia_dZe\[lWbkWj_edfhel_Z[iki[\kb_d\eh#
cWj_ededik_jWXb[fhe`[Yj_edb[d]j^$
9ecfWj_X_b_joX[jm[[dceZ[bie\j[db[WZijej^[i[b[Yj_ede\ded#b_d[WhceZ#
[b \ehci WdZ WdWboj_YWbbo iebl[Z YedZ_j_edi \eh ceZ[b fWhWc[j[hi$ J^_i c[Wdi
j^Wj ioij[ci e\ YecfWj_Xb[ ceZ[bi Wh[ ceh[ Yecfb[n j^Wd _dZ[f[dZ[dj ceZ#
[bi\ehZ_\\[h[djY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$?dj^[bWjj[hYWi["ceZ[biWh[dejckjkWbboYedZ_#
j_ed[ZWdZZedejd[Y[iiWh_boo_[bZWbe]_YWbioij[ce\fh[Z_Yj_ed[gkWj_edi\eh
j^[f^[dec[dede\_dj[h[ij$
7dej^[hWif[Yje\YecfWj_X_b_jo_ij^[h[b_WX_b_joe\h[WiedWXb[jhWdi\ehcWj_edi
e\ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edi$CWdo_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[biki[ijWj_Y_dij[WZe\ZodWc#
_YceZ[bYecfed[djije\eh[YWij"\eh[nWcfb["ijWdZ^[_]^jehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\
YhemdXWi["Yhemdm_Zj^ehXhWdY^Z_Wc[j[h$IjWj_YceZ[bWffheWY^[iik\\[hj^[
Z_iWZlWdjW][j^Wjh[WiedWXb[[ij_cWj[iWjjmefe_dji_dj_c[\ehj^[iWc[eX`[Yj
È 2ELIABILITY '+/
ZedejWkjecWj_YWbbob[WZjeWh[WiedWXb[[ij_cWj[e\Y^Wd][eh]hemj^$?dj^[WX#
i[dY[e\Wffhefh_Wj[j_c[i[h_[iZWjW"ikY^ceZ[bii^ekbZX[YWb_XhWj[ZXWi[Zed
ik_jWXb[Y^hedei[gk[dY[i"if[Y_\o_d][njhWfebWj_edXekdZWh_[i_dj^[_cfb[c[d#
jWj_edfheY[iije[dikh[X_ebe]_YWbboh[WiedWXb[[ij_cWj[i$
<_dWbbo" YecfWj_X_b_jo _i e\j[d W fheXb[c \eh \eh[ij ceZ[bi j^Wj _dYbkZ[ i_p[
YbWiiZ_ijh_Xkj_edehi_c_bWh_d\ehcWj_ed$J^_icWoX[Wbb[l_Wj[Z_dj^[YedijhkY#
j_edj^hek]^j^[ki[e\fWhWc[j[hh[Yel[hoj[Y^d_gk[i"m^_Y^][d[hWbboW_cje[d#
ikh[j^Wjj^[ikce\XWiWbWh[Wfh[Z_Yj_edi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i[gkWbiijWdZXWiWb
Wh[W[$]$>o_daWdZCei[h'/.)$
?d\ehcWj_ededi_p[YbWiiZ_ijh_Xkj_ed_ifWhj_YkbWhbolWbkWXb[m^[d[lWbkWj_d]
i_bl_YkbjkhWbWbj[hdWj_l[i"Xkje\j[dj^[kikWb]eeZd[ii#e\#\_jj[ijiWh[dejWffhe#
fh_Wj[[$]$H[odebZi[jWb$'/..1LWdYbWoWdZIaeli]WWhZ'//-$Ed[fheXb[c_ij^[
bWYae\Wif[Y_\_[Zj^[eh[j_YWbWbj[hdWj_l[jej[ijW]W_dij"_$[$j^[h[_ideYb[Whdkbb#
^ofej^[i_i$ 7dej^[h fheXb[c _i j^Wj ijWdZWhZ j[iji Wjjh_Xkj[ [gkWb _cfehjWdY[
je[hhehi_dZ_\\[h[dji_p[YbWii[i"\eh[nWcfb[[hhehi\ehjh[[im_j^WZ_Wc[j[he\
'&YcWh[hWj[Z[gkWbbojej^ei[\ehjh[[ie\*&YcWbj^ek]^j^[bWjj[h_iceh[i[#
h_eki\hecW\eh[ijhof[hif[Yj_l[$J^_i^WiX[[dWbb[l_Wj[Zj^hek]^j^[YedijhkY#
j_ede\Wbj[hdWj_l[j[ijiif[Y_\_YWbbo\eh\eh[ijhofkhfei[i[$]$H[odebZi[jWb$'/..1
Iaeli]WWhZ'//-W1PkYY^_d_[jWb$(&&'$Iec[e\j^[i[Wh[XWi[ZedWd[hheh#_dZ[n
j^WjX[jj[hh[\b[Yjij^[\eh[ijho_cfehjWdY[e\Z_\\[h[dji_p[YbWii[i$
È
2ELIABILITY
J^[ eX`[Yj_l[ e\ ceZ[b [lWbkWj_ed _i je Wii[ii j^[ h[b_WX_b_jo e\ fh[Z_Yj_edi
\hec j^[ ceZ[b WdZ" ceh[ ][d[hWbbo" j^[ ceZ[bÉi fej[dj_Wb \eh _ji _dj[dZ[Z ki[$
J^[Wii[iic[dji^ekbZZ[f[dZedceZ[bb_d]ehki[heX`[Yj_l[iWdZX[XWi[Zed
if[Y_\_[Zh[gk_h[c[djie\WYYkhWYoWdZfh[Y_i_ed$<eh\eh[ijceZ[bi"ikY^if[Y#
_\_YWj_ediWh[e\j[dbWYa_d]ehgk_j[lW]k[$J^_icWoX[Zk[jej^[Yecfb[n_joe\
j^[_iik[ehe\\eh[ij[Yeioij[ci"Xkjceijb_a[boj^[jhWZ_j_ede\WfhW]cWj_YWf#
fheWY^jeceZ[bb_d]WdZceZ[bki[WbiefbWoiWi_]d_\_YWdjheb[m^[di[jj_d]j^[
W][dZW$J^[kbj_cWj[Wii[iic[dje\ceZ[bh[b_WX_b_joh[ijim_j^j^[[dZ#ki[h"ie
j^[ [dZ#ki[h i^ekbZ ^[bf if[Y_\o WYYkhWYo WdZ ej^[h h[gk_h[c[dji [l[d Wj Wd
[WhboijW][e\ceZ[bYedijhkYj_ed$7bj^ek]^ikY^if[Y_\_YWj_edicWoX[^WhZje
gkWdj_\o_dWdef[hWj_edWbYedj[nj"j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[e\deif[Y_\_YWj_edi_i][d[hWbbo
mehi[WdZcWob[WZjekdWYY[fjWXb[ceZ[biehmWij[e\ceZ[bb_d][\\ehji$
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed e\ ceZ[b#_dj[hdWb fhef[hj_[i _i cW_dbo W cWjj[he\ iY_[dj_\_Y
h[i[WhY^"]k_Z[ZfWhj_WbboXocWdW][h_WbWdZej^[hfhWYj_YWbYedi_Z[hWj_edi$J^[
[lWbkWj_ede\ceZ[b#[nj[hdWbfhef[hj_[i_i^_]^boZ[f[dZ[djedceZ[bZeYkc[d#
jWj_ed"Xkj[l[djkWbboh[ijim_j^j^[[dZ#ki[h$<hecWd[dZ#ki[hf[hif[Yj_l[ceZ#
[bij^WjWh[[Wi_boWZ`kij[Zehh[YWb_XhWj[Zm_bb][d[hWbboi[[cceh[WjjhWYj_l[WdZ
h[b_WXb[j^WdÈXbWYaXenÉceZ[bi$
<eh cWdW][c[dj#eh_[dj[Z \eh[ij ceZ[bi" ceZ[b YedijhkYj_ed _i e\j[d Z_#
lehY[Z\hecef[hWj_edWb\eh[ijho$J^_iijh[ii[ij^[d[[Z\eh[\\_Y_[djYecckd_YW#
j_edX[jm[[diY_[dY[WdZ\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y["je[dikh[^_]^WdZh[b[lWdjceZ[bb_d]
ijWdZWhZiWdZm[bb#jWh][j[Zki[e\h[i[WhY^]hWdji$J^[Yecfb[n_joe\_dZ_l_ZkWb
',& #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
jh[[ceZ[bi\khj^[hijh[ii[ij^[d[[Z\ehc[djWbWdZej^[h_dj[hWYj_ediX[jm[[d
ceZ[bb[hWdZ[dZ#ki[h$
È
#ONCLUSION
:kh_d]h[Y[djo[Whij^[[lWbkWj_ede\\eh[ijceZ[bi^Wih[Y[_l[ZckY^Wjj[d#
j_ed[$]$Iaeli]WWhZ'//-X1Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&("WdZj^[gk[ij_ed^Wi[c[h][Z
e\m^[j^[hj^[h[_iceh[jeX[iW_Z$
Ed[Wh]kc[djjeZeceh[_ij^Wjj^[j[Y^d_YWb_j_[i"_$[$Z[l[befc[djWdZj[iji
e\c[j^eZiWdZYh_j[h_W"Wh[WYedj_dkekiboed]e_d]fheY[ii_dWYedijWdjboZ[#
l[bef_d]\_[bZe\h[i[WhY^$J^_iZ[f[dZicW_dboedZ[l[befc[dji_dej^[hXhWdY^#
[ie\iY_[dY[be]_Y"ijWj_ij_Yi"Yecfkj[hj[Y^debe]o"[jY$"Xkjj^[h[Wh[Wbie[nWc#
fb[i e\ ceh[ if[Y_\_Y \eh[ijho WffheWY^[i$ Iec[ e\ j^[i[ ^Wl[ X[[d c[dj_ed[Z
_dj^_iY^Wfj[h$7dej^[hWh]kc[dj_ij^Wj\eh[ijceZ[biZ[l[bef$<ebbem_d]iec[
Z[YWZ[ie\YekhW][ekiWjj[cfji"cWdo\W_bkh[iWdZiec[\[m[nWcfb[ie\ikYY[ii"
\eh[ijceZ[bb_d]\_dWbboi[[cijeX[cel_d]ikYY[ii\kbbo_dj^[Z_h[Yj_ede\_dZ_#
l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[bi$?dcWdofWhjie\j^[mehbZ"j^_iYe_dY_Z[im_j^Yedj[cfehWho
Z[l[befc[dji_di_bl_Ykbjkh[WdZ\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj"W_c_d]\ehceh[Yecfb[n"
kd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Z#if[Y_[i\eh[ijjof[ij^WjX[jj[h\kb\_bj^[Z[cWdZie\ikijW_d#
WXb[\eh[ijho$
?dYedYbki_ed"m[X[b_[l[j^Wjceh[Yecfh[^[di_l[[lWbkWj_edie\ikijW_dWX_b#
_joWh[WdkfYec_d]_iik["XkjWjj^_iijW][_j_i^WhZjej^_dae\Wkd_\o_d][lWb#
kWj_edYedY[fj\ehj^_ifkhfei[$M_j^if[Y_\_Yh[\[h[dY[je_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ#
[bij^[h[i[[cijeX[Wdkh][djd[[ZjeWZZh[iiceZ[bZ_c[di_edWb_jo_dh[bWj_ed
jefh[Z_Yj_edWYYkhWYoWdZje_Z[dj_\oehZ[l[befh[b[lWdjj[iji\ehj^[h[fh[i[dj#
Wj_l[d[iie\ifWj_WbZ_c[di_edi_dikY^ceZ[bi$M[[dl_iW][j^Wjj^[i[jef_Yim_bb
X[h[i[WhY^[Z_dj^[d[Wh\kjkh[$B_daijej^[\kdZWc[djWbYWki[ie\\eh[ij]hemj^
ceijb_a[bob_[ij_bb\khj^[hW^[WZ$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ 4HEÈ AUTHORSÈ GRATEFULLYÈ ACKNOWLEDGEÈ THEÈ VALUABLEÈ COMMENTSÈ ANDÈ SUG
GESTIONSÈFROMÈ0ROFESSORÈ4IMOÈ0UKKALAÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ*OENSUUÈ&INLAND
2EFERENCES
"EETSONÈ4È.ESTERÈ-È6ANCLAYÈ*+È È%NHANCINGÈAÈPERMANENTÈSAMPLEÈPLOTÈSYSTEMÈINÈNATURALÈ
FORESTSÈ3TATISTICIANÈn
"ÚCKMANNÈ4È3ABOROWSKIÈ*È$AHMÈ3È.AGELÈ*È3PELLMANNÈ(È È$IEÈ7EITERENTWICKLUNGÈDERÈ
"ETRIEBSINVENTURÈINÈ.IEDERSACHSENÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
"UCKMANÈ2%È È'ROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈOFÈREDÈPINEÈINÈ-INNESOTAÈ4ECHÈ"ULLÈÈ53$!È&ORESTÈ
3ERVICEÈ,AKEÈ3TATESÈ&ORESTÈ%XPERIMENTÈ3TATIONÈ3TÈ0AULÈ-INNESOTA
"URKHARTÈ(%È È3UGGESTIONSÈFORÈCHOOSINGÈANÈAPPROPRIATEÈLEVELÈFORÈMODELINGÈFORESTÈSTANDSÈ
)NÈ!MAROÈ!È2EEDÈ$È3OARESÈ0ÈEDS È-ODELLINGÈFORESTÈSYSTEMSÈ#HAPÈÈ#!"È)NTERNATIONALÈ
7ALLINGFORDÈPPÈn
2EFERENCES ','
#LUTTERÈ*,È È#OMPATIBLEÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈMODELSÈFORÈLOBLOLLYÈPINEÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
$ANIELSÈ2&È"URKHARTÈ(%È È!NÈINTEGRATEDÈSYSTEMÈOFÈFORESTÈSTANDÈMODELSÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ
n
$RALLEÈ+È2UDEMOÈ-È È!UTOMATICÈESTIMATIONÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈPOSITIONSÈFROMÈAERIALÈPHO
TOSÈ#ANÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
%NCYCLOPDIAÈ "RITANNICAÈ È 2EALISMÈ %NCYCLOPDIAÈ "RITANNICAÈ 0REMIUMÈ 3ERVICEÈ ONLINEÈ
VERSION ÈATÈHTTPWWWBRITANNICACOMEBARTICLEEUÈACCESSEDÈÈ3EPTÈ
'ARCÓAÈ/È È$IMENSIONALITYÈREDUCTIONÈINÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈANÈEXAMPLEÈ&ORÈ"IOMETRYÈ-ODEL
LINGÈ)NFORMÈ3CIÈn
'ERTNERÈ'È È!PPROXIMATINGÈPRECISIONÈINÈSIMULATIONÈPROJECTIONSÈANÈEFFICIENTÈALTERNATIVEÈTOÈ
-ONTEÈ#ARLOÈMETHODSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
'ERTNERÈ 'È È !SSESSMENTÈ OFÈ COMPUTATIONALLYÈ INTENSIVEÈ SPATIALÈ STATISTICALÈ METHODSÈ FORÈ
GENERATINGÈ INPUTSÈ FORÈ SPATIALLYÈ EXPLICITÈ ERRORÈ BUDGETSÈ &ORÈ "IOMETRYÈ -ODELLINGÈ )NFORMÈ 3CIÈ
n
'ERTNERÈ 'È $ZIALOWYÈ 0*È È %FFECTSÈ OFÈ MEASUREMENTÈ ERRORSÈ ONÈ ANÈ INDIVIDUALÈ TREE
BASEDÈ
GROWTHÈPROJECTIONÈSYSTEMÈ#ANÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
'ERTNERÈ':È&ANGÈ3È3KOVSGAARDÈ*0È È!È"AYESIANÈAPPROACHÈFORÈESTIMATINGÈTHEÈPARAMETERSÈOFÈ
AÈFORESTÈPROCESSÈMODELÈBASEDÈONÈLONG
TERMÈGROWTHÈDATAÈ%COLÈ-ODELLINGÈn
'REENÈ%*È-AC&ARLANEÈ$7È6ALENTINEÈ(4È È"AYESIANÈSYNTHESISÈFORÈQUANTIFYINGÈUNCERTAINTYÈ
INÈPREDICTIONSÈFROMÈPROCESSÈMODELSÈ4REEÈ0HYSIOLÈn
(ALLÈ $"È #LUTTERÈ -È È -ULTIVARIATEÈ MULTILEVELÈ NONLINEARÈ MIXEDÈ EFFECTSÈ MODELSÈ FORÈ TIMBERÈ
YIELDÈPREDICTIONSÈ"IOMETRICSÈn
(ASENAUERÈ (È -ONSERUDÈ 2!È 'REGOIREÈ 4'È È 5SINGÈ SIMULTANEOUSÈ REGRESSIONÈ TECHNIQUESÈ
WITHÈINDIVIDUAL
TREEÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
(UBERÈ0*È È2OBUSTÈSTATISTICSÈ7ILEYÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
(UANGÈ3È9ANGÈ9È7ANGÈ9È È!ÈCRITICALÈLOOKÈATÈPROCEDURESÈFORÈVALIDATINGÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈ
MODELSÈ-ODELLINGÈ&ORÈ3YSTÈn
(YINKÈ$-È-OSERÈ*7È*RÈ È!ÈGENERALIZEDÈFRAMEWORKÈFORÈPROJECTINGÈFORESTÈYIELDÈANDÈSTANDÈ
STRUCTUREÈUSINGÈDIAMETERÈDISTRIBUTIONSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
*OHANNSENÈ6+È È!ÈGROWTHÈMODELÈFORÈOAKÈINÈ$ENMARKÈ0H$È4HESISÈ2OYALÈ6ETERINARYÈANDÈ
!GRICULTURALÈ5NIVERSITYÈ#OPENHAGENÈ8)6ÈÈÈPP
+AHNEÈ 3È È -ODELLINGÈ CREDIBILITYÈ FORÈ LARGE
SCALEÈ SYSTEMSÈ )%%%È 4RANSÈ 3YSTÈ -ANÈ #YBERNETÈ
n
+EUZENKAMPÈ(!È-C!LEERÈ-È È3IMPLICITYÈSCIENTIFICÈINFERENCEÈANDÈECONOMETRICÈMODELLINGÈ
%CONÈ*Èn
,APPIÈ*È È!ÈLONGITUDINALÈANALYSISÈOFÈHEIGHTDIAMETERÈCURVESÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
,APPIÈ*È"AILEYÈ2,È È!ÈHEIGHTÈPREDICTIONÈMODELÈWITHÈRANDOMÈSTANDÈANDÈTREEÈPARAMETERSÈANÈ
ALTERNATIVEÈTOÈTRADITIONALÈSITEÈINDEXÈMETHODSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
,EARYÈ2!È È$ESIGNÈ)NÈ!ÈGENERALIZEDÈFORESTÈGROWTHÈPROJECTIONÈSYSTEMÈAPPLIEDÈTOÈTHEÈ,AKEÈ
3TATESÈREGIONÈ'ENERALÈ4ECHÈ2EPÈ.#
È53$!È&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈ.ORTHÈ#ENTRALÈ&ORESTÈ%XPERI
MENTÈ3TATIONÈ-INNESOATAÈPPÈn
,EARYÈ2!È È4ESTINGÈMODELSÈOFÈUNTHINNEDÈREDÈPINEÈPLANTATIONÈDYNAMICSÈUSINGÈAÈMODIFIEDÈ
"AKUZISÈMATRIXÈOFÈSTANDÈPROPERTIESÈ%COLÈ-ODELLINGÈn
-C!LLISTERÈ *È È "EAUTYÈ ANDÈ REVOLUTIONÈ INÈ SCIENCEÈ #ORNELLÈ 5NIVERSITYÈ 0RESSÈ )THACAÈ 8)È È
ÈPP
-ONSERUDÈ2!È È%VALUATINGÈFORESTÈMODELSÈINÈAÈSUSTAINABLEÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈCONTEXTÈ&ORÈ
"IOMETRYÈ-ODELLINGÈ)NFORMÈ3CIÈn
',( #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]?dZ_l_ZkWbJh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi
$EMONSTRAITINGÈTHEÈ0ROBLEMÈ3OLVINGÈ
0OTENTIALÈOFÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELS
9^Wfj[h/
CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[d
WdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji Ä
9^Wfj[h'&
;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[iWdZJ^[_h?cfWYj
ed9ecc[hY_WbJ_cX[hIkffboKi_d]Wd?dZ_l_ZkWb#Jh[[
=hemj^CeZ[bWdZIY[dWh_e7dWboi_i Ä
9^Wfj[h''
7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]"
?dj[]hWj_d]W<eh[ij=hemj^I_ckbWjeh"<kppo#?d\[h[dY[J[Y^d_gk[i
WdZW>[kh_ij_YEfj_c_iWj_ed7ffheWY^ Ä
9^Wfj[h'(
J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d] Ä
9^Wfj[h')
J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_iWdZCkbj_#EX`[Yj_l[
Efj_c_iWj_ed_d<eh[ijFbWdd_d] Ä
9^Wfj[h'*
CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb Ä
9^Wfj[h'+
?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W Ä
9^Wfj[h',
9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
8Wi[ZedI_bl_YkbjkhWbIY[dWh_eCeZ[bb_d] Ä
9^Wfj[h'-
CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[ Ä
#(!04%2È ',-
-ODELINGÈ2EGENERATIONÈINÈ%VENÈANDÈ
5NEVEN
!GEDÈ-IXEDÈ3PECIESÈ&ORESTS
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h'"=[eh]A_dZ[hcWdd(
!BSTRACTÈ2EGENERATIONÈESTABLISHMENTÈANDÈJUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈGROWTHÈAREÈIMPORTANTÈTOÈ
ENSUREÈ SUSTAINABILITYÈ WITHINÈ FORESTÈ STANDSÈ )NÈ THISÈ CHAPTERÈ WEÈ DEMONSTRATEÈ HOWÈ ROUTINEÈ
INVENTORYÈ DATAÈ MAYÈ BEÈ USEDÈ TOÈ ASSESSÈ THEÈ PROBABILITYÈ OFÈ REGENERATIONÈ WITHINÈ THEÈ LASTÈ
ÈYEARSÈ THEÈ SPECIESÈ COMPOSITIONÈ ANDÈ THEÈ REGENERATIONÈ DENSITYÈ WITHINÈ PUREÈ ANDÈ MIXEDÈ
ASÈ WELLÈ ASÈ EVENÈ ANDÈ UNEVEN
AGEDÈ FORESTSÈ 7EÈ ALSOÈ PROPOSEÈ ANÈ APPROACHÈ FORÈ PREDICTINGÈ
JUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈGROWTHÈANDÈMORTALITYÈ&INALLYÈWEÈDEMONSTRATEÈTHEÈAPPLICABILITYÈOFÈOURÈ
REGENERATIONÈMODELSÈUSINGÈINDEPENDENTÈDATAÈSETSÈWHICHÈWEREÈNOTÈUSEDÈFORÈMODELÈCALIBRA
TIONÈ4HEÈRESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈSTUDYÈSUGGESTÈTHATÈOURÈREGENERATIONÈASSESSMENTÈROUTINESÈANDÈTHEÈ
HEIGHTÈGROWTHÈPREDICTIONSÈWEREÈUNBIASEDÈANDÈEXHIBITEDÈCONSISTENTÈRESULTSÈ4HEÈEQUATIONSÈ
AREÈSIMPLEÈANDÈREQUIREÈONLYÈROUTINEÈINVENTORYÈDATAÈANDÈCANÈBEÈEASILYÈADAPTEDÈTOÈANYÈOTHERÈ
FORESTÈTYPEÈIFÈREGENERATIONÈDATAÈAREÈAVAILABLE
È
)NTRODUCTION
M_j^j^[i^_\j\hec[l[d#W][Zfkh[jekd[l[d#W][ZWdZ%ehc_n[Z\eh[ijcWd#
W][c[djfhWYj_Y[i"h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^Wh[e\_d#
Yh[Wi_d] _cfehjWdY[ je [dikh[ ikijW_dWX_b_jo$ ?d ][d[hWb" jh[[i cWo X[ YbWii_\_[Z
Wi ' el[hijeho jh[[i WdZ ( kdZ[hijeho WdZ%eh `kl[d_b[ jh[[i m^_Y^ Wh[ Yed#
i_Z[h[ZWih[][d[hWj_ed$J^[j^h[i^ebZb[l[b\ehWfWhj_YkbWhjh[[jeX[bed]jej^[
el[h#ehkdZ[hijehoZ[f[dZiedfh[Z[\_d[ZYh_j[h_We\j[dZ[h_l[ZXoj^[ZWjWiWc#
fb_d]Z[i_]d$<eh[nWcfb["h[][d[hWj_edcWo_dYbkZ[Wbb`kl[d_b[jh[[iX[bemWY[h#
jW_d^[_]^j_$[$2'$)cehWY[hjW_dXh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h:8>2+Yc"[$]$j^[
7kijh_WdDWj_edWb<eh[ij?dl[djeho$
Ed[c[j^eZjefh[Z_Yjj^[h[Yhk_jc[dje\el[hijehojh[[i_iXWi[Zedie#YWbb[Z
_d]hemj^ ceZ[bi B[Z[hcWdd (&&($ IkY^ ceZ[bi fh[Z_Yj j^[ fheXWX_b_jo j^Wj
jh[[i[nY[[Zj^[fh[Z[\_d[Zj^h[i^ebZb[l[b_$[$+Ycki_d]\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW$
M_j^j^_ic[j^eZj^[dkcX[he\_d]hem_d]jh[[i_dj^[el[hijehoZkh_d]W]_l#
[dj_c[f[h_eZ[$]$+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ_ifh[Z_YjWXb[$J^[WffheWY^_ii_cfb[1
' [#cW_b0^kX[hj$^Wi[dWk[h6Xeak$WY$Wj
( :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i"?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"8EAKKd_l[hi_#
joe\DWjkhWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW"F[j[h#@ehZWd#IjhW[.("''/&L_[d#
dW"7kijh_W
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
',. #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
^em[l[h"_j_]deh[ij^[h[][d[hWj_edZodWc_Yii[[Zb_d][ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ`kl[#
d_b[jh[[]hemj^X[bemj^[j^h[i^ebZb[l[b[$]$+Yc_d:8>$
CWdoi_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djioij[ci\eYkiedh[][d[hWj_edZodWc_Yi$J^_i
h[gk_h[iWZ[gkWj[ZWjWWdZWdWffheWY^j^WjWbbemikije[nfb_Y_jboWii[ii\eh[ij
h[][d[hWj_ed"Xobeea_d]WjfheY[ii[iikY^Wii[[Zb_d][ijWXb_i^c[dj"`kl[d_b[jh[[
]hemj^ WdZ cehjWb_jo$ Fh[l_eki Wjj[cfji Xo C_jY^[bb '/-+ ik]][ij[Z h[][d[h#
Wj_ed_dl[djeh_[i"m^_b[I^k]Whj[jWb$'/-)ki[Zj^[Z[l[befc[djijW][ie\h[#
][d[hWj_edWifhe]deij_Yjeebi$Ej^[hWkj^ehiI^_\b[o[jWb$'//)1Iebeced[jWb$
'//+ki[Zh[]h[ii_edWdWboi[iXWi[ZedWYecX_dWj_ede\h[Y[djWdZfh[l_ekii_j[
fWhWc[j[hi je [ij_cWj[ j^[ dkcX[h e\ _d]hem_d] jh[[i _d j^[ el[hijeho$ ;a WdZ
Cedi[hkZ'/-*ik]][ij[Zj^[CWhaelY^W_dWffheWY^"Cei[h'/-(Z_\\[h[d#
j_Wb[gkWj_ediWdZ>[jj'/-'ie#YWbb[Zb_\[jWXb[ijeZ[iYh_X[h[][d[hWj_ed$H[Y[dj
h[i[WhY^W_c[ZWj_cfhel_d]ekhkdZ[hijWdZ_d]^Wiifb_jh[][d[hWj_edfheY[ii#
[i_djefh[Z_Yj_d]h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djFkaaWbWWdZAebijhc'//(1H_X#
X[di[jWb$'//*1IY^m[_][hWdZIj[hXW'//-1>Wi[dWk[h[jWb$(&&&1A_dZ[hcWdd
[jWb$(&&(WdZh[][d[hWj_ed]hemj^=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-1>Wi[dWk[hWdZ
A_dZ[hcWdd(&&($
7d _cfehjWdj fheXb[c _d Wii[ii_d] h[][d[hWj_ed fheY[ii[i _i j^[ WlW_bWX_b_#
joe\ZWjWWdZ%ehj^[ZWjWYebb[Yj_edZ[i_]d$Iec[j_c[ihekj_d[_dl[djeh_[iYeb#
b[Yj_d\ehcWj_ededbo_\WY[hjW_dh[][d[hWj_edZ[di_jo_i[l_Z[dj[$]$j^[7kijh_#
Wd<eh[ij?dl[djehoÄ<8L7'//*$J^_i[nYbkZ[ifbejim^[h[deehedbob_jjb[h[#
][d[hWj_ed[n_iji$>em[l[h"\hecWi_bl_YkbjkhWbfheif[Yj_l[_j_i_cfehjWdjjekd#
Z[hijWdZ m^o de eh edbo b_jjb[ h[][d[hWj_ed _i WlW_bWXb[$ H[][d[hWj_ed _d\ehcW#
j_edi^ekbZdejX[Wii[ii[Zl_ikWbboX[YWki[f[hiedWbef_d_edie\j^[\_[bZYh[m
ijhed]bo X_Wi j^[ h[YehZ_d] e\ ZWjW M_bZj '//+$ Edbo W h[fheZkY_Xb[ _dl[dje#
hoZ[i_]dWbbemikije[d^WdY[ekhZWjWXWi[\ehijkZo_d]h[][d[hWj_edfheY[ii[i
>Wi[dWk[h[jWb$(&&&$
?d j^_i Y^Wfj[h" m[ Z[cedijhWj[ j^[ Wffb_YWX_b_jo e\ h[][d[hWj_ed ceZ[bi ie
j^Wjj^[oYWdX[ki[Zm_j^_djh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d]ki_d]edbohekj_d[_dl[dje#
hoZWjW$M[ifb_jj^[h[][d[hWj_edfheY[ii_dje\ekhij[fi0'\ehi_jkWj_edim^[h[
deh[][d[hWj_ed_d\ehcWj_ed_iWlW_bWXb[m[ik]][ijWi_cfb[c[j^eZjefh[Z_Yj
j^[h[][d[hWj_edi_jkWj_ed_dehZ[hjeWii[iih[][d[hWj_edZodWc_YiWij^[oZ[#
f[dZkfedi_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[dji1(m^[h[_d\ehcWj_ededh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWX#
b_i^c[dj_iWlW_bWXb[[_j^[h\hecij[f'eh\hec_dl[djehoZWjWm[Z[cedijhWj[
^em`kl[d_b[jh[[^[_]^j]hemj^WdZcehjWb_joYWdX[Wii[ii[Ziej^Wjj^[oYWdX[
[Wi_bo_cfb[c[dj[Z_dWjh[[]hemj^#ceZ[b_d][dl_hedc[dj1)m[lWb_ZWj[ekh
ceZ[bYWb_XhWj_ediki_d]_dZ[f[dZ[djZWjWi[ji$8[YWki[Xhemi_d]_iWa[oYec#
fed[djm_j^_dh[][d[hWj_ed"m[*[nfbeh[^emXhemi_d]_cfWYjicWoW\\[Yjh[#
][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj$
È
$ATA
<ehceZ[bXk_bZ_d]WdZlWb_ZWj_edjmeZ_\\[h[djjof[ie\ZWjWm[h[ki[Z0'
hekj_d[_dl[djehoWdZ(f[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbeji$J^[ZWjWYWc[\hec\_l[Z_\#
\[h[dj h[]_edi _d7kijh_W0 ' j^[ Kd_l[hi_joÉi ;nf[h_c[djWb <eh[ij" ( B_jiY^Wk"
È $ATA ',/
)AWcc[h"*j^[>_hiY^bWYa[_dj^[8e^[c_WdCWii_l[WdZ+j^[B_c[ijed[
DWj_edWbFWha_dkff[h7kijh_W$
J^[ \_hij ZWjW i[j mWi eXjW_d[Z \hec j^[ f[hcWd[dj iWcfb[ fbej _dl[djeho
e\j^[Kd_l[hi_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ij_dj^[HeiWb_[dCekdjW_di_dj^[iekj^#
[Wij[hdfWhje\7kijh_W$J^[[b[lWj_edhWd][i\hec*&&Ä/&&c"m_j^cW_dbom[ij#
\WY_d] ibef[i$ J^[ cW_d \eh[ij jof[ _i W c_n[Z DehmWo ifhkY[ F_Y[W WX_[i B$
AWhij"i_bl[h\_h7X_[iWbXWC_bb$"YeccedX[[Y^<W]kii_blWj_YWB$AWhij\eh[ij
m_j^iec[IYejif_d[F_dkii_bl[ijh_iB$$J^[;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ijYel[hiWXekj
'&&&^WWdZYedi_ijie\fkh[[l[d#W][ZXkjWbiec_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZim_j^Wm_Z[
lWh_[jo e\ ijWdZ ijhkYjkh[ WdZ Z[di_jo Zk[ je _dj[di_l[ \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj ef#
[hWj_edi$J^[_dl[djeho^WiW]h_Zi_p[e\t'*'$*'*'$*c3ed[fe_djf[h(^W"
WdZ_iWYecX_dWj_ede\Wd]b[YekdjiWcfb_d]m_j^WXWiWbWh[W\WYjehe\*8_j#
j[hb_Y^'/+/\ehWbbjh[[im_j^W:8>4,Yc"WdZW\_n[ZiWcfb[fbeje\',c(\eh
Yebb[Yj_d]h[][d[hWj_ed_d\ehcWj_ed$J^[\_n[ZiWcfb[fbejYedi_ijie\\ekhikX#
fbeji*c([WY^$Edj^[i[h[][d[hWj_edfbejiWbbjh[[im[h[h[YehZ[ZWdZWii_]d[Z
Xojh[[if[Y_[iWdZ\ekh^[_]^jYbWii[i0&Ä(&"('Ä+&"+'Ä'&&WdZ'&'Ä')&Yc$<eh
[WY^if[Y_[iWdZ^[_]^jYbWiied[h[fh[i[djWj_l[jh[[\ehc[Wikh_d]^[_]^jWdZj^[
^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj\ehj^[fWij+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZmWii[b[Yj[Z$J^[f[h_eZ_Yfe#
j[dj_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[djhWj[i\ehYeccedX[[Y^m[h[eXjW_d[Zki_d]j^[i_j[_d#
Z[n\kdYj_ed\hecA[dd[b'/-(1\ehWbbej^[hif[Y_[ij^[i_j[_dZ[n\kdYj_edie\
CWhiY^Wbb'/-+m[h[ki[Z$
M_j^_dj^[b_c_je\jm_Y[j^[Zec_dWdjijWdZ^[_]^j,&cj^[Z_ijWdY[X[#
jm[[dj^[Y[dj[he\j^[iWcfb[fbejWdZj^[ijWdZ[Z][mWih[YehZ[Z_dehZ[hje
Wii[iifeii_Xb[[Z][#[\\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^jWi_jcWoW\\[Yji[[Zb_d][ijWXb_i^#
c[djWdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^<b[cc_d]'/,($I_j[_d\ehcWj_edmWih[YehZ[Z
WYYehZ_d]jej^[7kijh_WdDWj_edWb<eh[ij?dl[djeho<8L7'//*$Jmee\j^[ikX#
fbejim[h[eh_[dj[ZWbed]j^[ibef[WdZjmef[hf[dZ_YkbWhje_j<_]$/$'$
&IGÈÈ4HEÈINVENTORYÈDESIGNÈFORÈCOLLECTINGÈREGENERATIONÈINFORMATIONÈONÈOURÈINVENTORYÈPLOTSÈ
!TÈEACHÈPLOTÈCENTERÈANÈANGLEÈCOUNTÈSAMPLINGÈWITHÈAÈBASALÈAREAÈFACTORÈOFÈÈWASÈCARRIEDÈOUTÈ/NÈ
THEÈFOURÈSUBPLOTSÈTOTALÈSIZEÈOFÈÈM ÈREGENERATIONÈINFORMATIONÈWASÈRECORDEDÈBYÈHEIGHTÈCLASSÈ
ANDÈTREEÈSPECIES
'-& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
J^[_dl[djehoe\j^[h[i[WhY^\eh[ij^WZX[[dYWhh_[Zekji_dY['/./m_j^W+#
o[Wh_dj[hlWb$;WY^o[WhW\_\j^e\j^[++.]h_Zfe_djim[h[h[c[Wikh[ZXoj^[Wd#
]b[YekdjiWcfb_d]c[j^eZ$I_dY['//."Wh[][d[hWj_ed_dl[djeho^WiX[[dWZZ#
[Zjej^[f[hcWd[dj]h_Zfe_djiWYYehZ_d]jej^[Z[i_]d]_l[d_d<_]$/$'$?dWZ#
Z_j_ed"'(bed]#j[hcf[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbejibeYWj[Zm_j^_dj^_iWh[WWh[WlW_b#
WXb[\ehekhijkZo$
J^[i[YedZWdZj^_hZZWjWi[jYWc[\hecB_jiY^Wk_dÈBem[h7kijh_WÉWdZAWc#
c[h_dÈKff[h7kijh_WÉYedi_ij_d]e\('WdZ'(f[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbeji"h[if[Y#
j_l[bo$J^[fbeji_dB_jiY^WkWh[beYWj[Zd[Whj^[XehZ[hm_j^j^[9p[Y^H[fkXb_Y
WjWd[b[lWj_ede\WXekj'"&&&c$J^[jof_YWbijWdZjof[hWd][i\hecWfkh[Deh#
mWo ifhkY[ je W c_n[Z WdZ kd[l[d#W][Z DehmWo ifhkY[ÄIYeji f_d[ \eh[ij$ J^[
fbeji_dAWcc[hWh[beYWj[Z_dWjof_YWbijhkYjkh[ZWdZc_n[ZDehmWoifhkY["\_h"
YeccedX[[Y^\eh[ijYecfWh[m_j^j^[Kd_l[hi_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ij]hem#
_d]edl[ho]eeZi_j[iX[jm[[d,&&WdZ'"'&&c_d[b[lWj_ed$
7bb *+ f[hcWd[dj h[i[WhY^ fbeji '( \hec j^[ ;nf[h_c[djWb <eh[ij" (' _d
B_jiY^Wk" '( _d AWcc[h _dYbkZ[ , ikXfbeji jejWb (-&$ Ed j^[i[ h[][d[hWj_ed
fbeji Wbb jh[[ WdZ i_j[ _d\ehcWj_ed _dYbkZ_d] feii_Xb[ [Z][ [\\[Yji m[h[ h[YehZ#
[ZWifh[l_ekiboZ[iYh_X[Z$Kdb_a[j^[_dl[djehoZ[i_]d"j^[i[h[i[WhY^fbeji^Wl[
dejX[[di[b[Yj[ZhWdZecbo$J^[om[h[Y^ei[djeh[fh[i[djijWdZiYel[h_d]bem
Wi m[bb Wi ^_]^ h[][d[hWj_ed Z[di_j_[i _d ehZ[h je ijkZo j^[ fej[dj_Wb hWd][ e\
]hem_d]YedZ_j_edi\ehh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^$:W#
jWYebb[Yj_ed\ehWbbjh[[i4'$)c_d^[_]^jmWiYWhh_[Zekjed\_n[ZiWcfb[fbeji
)+)+cm_j^WYeh[ped[e\'+'+c$?dj^[ded#Yeh[ped[edbojh[[im_j^W
:8>4'&Ycm[h[iWcfb[Z$
J^[\ekhj^ZWjWi[jÄ>_hiY^bWYa[ÄYedi_ijie\*)h[][d[hWj_edfbeji_dW)$,#
^Wf[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^i_j[_dj^[8e^[c_WdCWii_l[$J^[Zec_dWj_d]jh[[if[Y_[i
_iDehmWoifhkY[m_j^iec[IYejif_d[WdZi_bl[h\_h$J^[h[i[WhY^i_j[mWi[ijWX#
b_i^[Z_d'/--\ehijkZo_d]jWh][jZ_Wc[j[hYkjj_d]i$Edj^_ii_j[Wbbjh[[im_j^W
:8>4+Ycm[h[h[YehZ[Z$J^[h[c[Wikh[c[dj_dj[hlWbmWi+o[Whi$J^[*)f[h#
cWd[djikXfbeji"m_j^Wfbeji_p[e\WXekj+c(h3'$(-c"\ehYebb[Yj_d]h[][d[h#
Wj_ed_d\ehcWj_edm[h[h[YehZ[Zjm_Y[0Wjj^[i[YedZh[c[Wikh[c[dj_d'/.-WdZ
Zkh_d]j^[bWijh[c[Wikh[c[dj_d(&&($J^[ZWjWYebb[Yj_edioij[c_dYbkZ_d]j^[
Wii_]dc[dje\j^[^kcki"ie_bWdZi_j[ZWjWmWi_Z[dj_YWbjej^[ioij[cfh[l_eki#
boZ[iYh_X[Z<8L7'//*$
J^[\_\j^ZWjWi[jYWc[\hecWf[hcWd[dj\eh[ij_dl[djeho_dj^[B_c[ijed[
DWj_edWbFWha_dkff[h7kijh_W$J^[dWj_edWbfWha_ibeYWj[Z_dYWbYWh[ekicekd#
jW_diWdZ_dYbkZ[ij^[I[di[dCekdjW_diWim[bbWij^[HW_Y^hWc_d][hCekdjW_di$
J^[[b[lWj_edhWd][i\hec-&&Ä("&&&c$J^[Zec_dWj_d]ijWdZjof[_ii_c_bWhje
j^[Kd_l[hi_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ijÄWc_n[ZDehmWoifhkY["\_h"YeccedX[[Y^
\eh[ijm_j^iec[IYejif_d[WdZbWhY^BWh_nZ[Y_ZkWWj^_]^[h[b[lWj_edi$?d'//,
Wf[hcWd[dj_dl[djeho")&&)&&chWij[h3ed[fe_djf[h/^W"mWi[ijWXb_i^[Z$Ie
\Wh,-,fbeji^Wl[X[[dh[YehZ[Zm^_Y^Wh[WlW_bWXb[\ehekhijkZo$
J^[ _dl[djeho Yebb[Yji dkc[heki l[ho Z[jW_b[Z ie_b" i_j[ WdZ ijWdZ _d\ehcW#
j_ed ;Yacbbd[h [j Wb$ '///$ J^[ ijWdZ _d\ehcWj_ed d[[Z[Z \eh j^_i ijkZo _d#
YbkZ[iel[hijeho_d\ehcWj_ed\ehWbbjh[[im_j^W:8>4+Ych[YehZ[ZedWfbej
i_p[e\-.$+*c(h3+cWdZh[][d[hWj_ed_d\ehcWj_ed\hec\ekhikXfbejihWd]#
_d]_di_p[X[jm[[d(WdZ*c([WY^$I_c_bWhjej^[fh[l_ekiboZ[iYh_X[ZZWjW"m[
È -ETHODS '-'
ki[Zj^[WlW_bWXb[Z[jW_b[Zie_bWdZi_j[_d\ehcWj_edWdZZ[h_l[Z\hecj^_ij^[_d#
\ehcWj_edd[[Z[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[Z[\_d_j_edie\j^[7kijh_WdDWj_edWb<eh[ij?d#
l[djeho<8L7'//*$J^_i[dikh[ZYedi_ij[djZ[\_d_j_ede\j^[ZWjWi[jj^hek]^#
ekjj^[ijkZo$
J^[\_l[Z_\\[h[djZWjWiekhY[i^Wl[X[[dki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_d]WdZlWb_ZWj_d]
j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dj WdZ `kl[d_b[ jh[[ ^[_]^j ]hemj^ WdZ cehjWb_jo
ceZ[biXoif[Y_[iJWXb[i/$'WdZ/$($J^[ZWjWi[jYel[hij^[cW_djh[[if[Y_[iWi
m[bbWi\eh[ijjof[i_d7kijh_WWdZYec[i\hecZ_\\[h[djh[]_edim_j^_dj^[Yekd#
jho$Dej[j^Wjded[e\j^[lWb_ZWj_edZWjW^Wl[X[[dki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_ed$
JeWii[iiXhemi_d]_cfWYjWi_jcWoW\\[Yjh[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[djWd[n#
Y[bb[dj ZWjW iekhY[ fhel_Z[Z Xo j^[7kijh_Wd <[Z[hWb <eh[ij 9ecfWdo zX\7=
mWiWlW_bWXb[$J^[zX\7=emdi'+e\j^[\eh[ij#Yel[h[ZbWdZWh[W_d7kijh_W$?d
(&&'j^[YecfWdo[ijWXb_i^[Z+&f[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbejim_j^_d[WY^e\j^[_h
(+cWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjijeijkZoXhemi_d]_cfWYji$;WY^fbejYedi_ijie\WdWh[W
(c_dhWZ_ki$;WY^o[WhWbb`kl[d_b[jh[[ib[iij^[d)c_d^[_]^jWh[Yekdj[ZWdZ
h[YehZ[ZXojh[[if[Y_[i"^[_]^jYbWii'&Ä)&")'Ä+&"+'Ä/&"/'Ä'+&"'+'Ä)&&Yc
WdZXhemi_d]ZWcW][e\j^[j[hc_dWbb[WZ[h$?dWZZ_j_ed"i_j[YedZ_j_edi"h[b_[\"
^Whl[ij_d] c[j^eZ ed j^[ i_j[" [jY$ Wh[ h[YehZ[Z$ <eh Z[jW_bi m[ h[\[h je FeiY^
(&&)$<ehekhWdWboi[iWjejWbe\,,".,+_dZ_l_ZkWb`kl[d_b[jh[[eXi[hlWj_edih[#
YehZ[Zedj^['"(+&f[hcWd[djfbeji_d(&&'WdZ(&&(m[h[WlW_bWXb[JWXb[/$)$
È
-ETHODS
È
2EGENERATIONÈ!SSESSMENT
J^[ XWi_Y YedY[fji \eh ceZ[b_d] h[][d[hWj_ed Wii[iic[dj WdZ `kl[d_b[ jh[[
]hemj^Z[l[bef[ZXo>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(WdZA_dZ[hcWdd[jWb$
(&&(fh[Z_Yjj^Wjj^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_ed_iW\kdYj_ede\
f3\9ECF":8>cWn"If">J"IJ"LJ";:=;
m^[h[ f _i j^[ fheXWX_b_jo e\ h[][d[hWj_ed m_j^_d W +#o[Wh ]hemj^ f[h_eZ"
9ECF j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n WYYehZ_d] je ;g$/$(" :8>cWn"If j^[ cWn_ckc
Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[hYcXoif[Y_[i">Jed[e\j^[i_n^kckijof[i"IJed[e\
j^[(,ie_bjof[iWdZLJed[e\j^[+)l[][jWj_edjof[iWYYehZ_d]jej^[Z[\_d_#
j_edie\j^[DWj_edWb7kijh_Wd<eh[ij?dl[djeho<8L7'//*"Wim[bbWi;:=;W
ÈZkccolWh_WXb[Éeh8eeb[WdlWh_WXb[\ehWijWdZ[Z][m_j^_dj^[ZekXb[ZijWdZ
^[_]^je\WcWjkh[\eh[ijWXekj,&c$7d_cfehjWdjfWhWc[j[h_d;g$/$'_ij^[
el[hijehoYecf[j_j_ed9ECF"m^_Y^YWdX[Z[h_l[Z\hechekj_d[_dl[djehoZWjW0
½½½½½½½½½½3WÕcZX^XÕdH[fÕY
9ECF3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
'&&&&
'-( #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
4ABLEÈÈ.UMBERÈOFÈANGLEÈCOUNTÈSAMPLINGÈPLOTSÈ7:0 ÈWITHÈTHEÈREGENERATIONÈDATAÈUSEDÈFORÈ
PARAMETERIZATIONÈ ANDÈ MODELÈ VALIDATIONÈ OFÈ THEÈ REGENERATIONÈ ESTABLISHMENTÈ MODELSÈ %$'%YESÈ
ANDÈ%$'%NOÈINDICATEÈTHEÈNUMBERÈOFÈPLOTSÈWITHÈANDÈWITHOUTÈEDGE
EFFECTEDÈINCIDENCEÈOFÈLIGHTÈ
RESPECTIVELY
$ATAÈFORÈPARAMETERIZATIONÈINVENTORYÈPLOTSÈOFÈTHEÈ%XPERIMENTALÈ&ORESTÈUNTILÈ
2OHHUMUSTORFÈÈ È È È È
$ATAÈFORÈVALIDATIONÈINVENTORYÈPLOTSÈOFÈTHEÈ%XPERIMENTALÈ&ORESTÈÈANDÈ
$ATAÈFORÈVALIDATIONÈSUBPLOTSÈATÈTHEÈ(IRSCHLACKEÈÈANDÈ
4ABLEÈÈ#ONTINUED
$ATAÈFORÈVALIDATIONÈINVENTORYÈPLOTSÈATÈTHEÈ,IMESTONEÈ.ATIONALÈ0ARK
cZX^3 [
ZX^!'$)0_\^4'$)c
^0_\^§'$)c
m^[h[cZX^_ij^[ceZ_\_[ZZX^]_l[d_d;g$/$)"dH[fj^[ij[cdkcX[hf[h
^[YjWh[" ^ j^[ jh[[ ^[_]^j" WdZ W" X" WdZ Y j^[ if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y Ye[\\_Y_[dji JW#
Xb[/$*$J^[\_dWbZ[Y_i_edm^[j^[hh[][d[hWj_ed_iceZ[b[Zehdej_iZ[h_l[ZXo
W YecfWh_ied e\ j^[ fh[Z_Yj[Z lWbk[ \eh f m_j^ Wd [gkWbbo Z_ijh_Xkj[Z hWdZec
dkcX[h$
EdY[j^[Z[Y_i_ed^WiX[[dcWZ[j^Wj_dWfWhj_YkbWhijWdZh[][d[hWj_edeY#
YkhiZkh_d]W+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ"j^[if[Y_[ifhefehj_edehc_njkh[e\j^[h[#
][d[hWj_ed_i[ij_cWj[Zki_d]j^[iWc[XWi_YYedY[fjWi]_l[d_d;g$/$'0
fIf3\9ECF":8>cWn"If">J"IJ"LJ";:=;
m^[h[fIf_ij^[fhefehj_ede\Wif[Y_[im_j^_dj^[h[][d[hWj_edX[jm[[d&
WdZ ' WdZ Wbb ej^[h lWh_WXb[i Wh[ Wi fh[l_ekibo Z[\_d[Z$ Dej[ j^Wj [WY^ if[Y_[i
fhefehj_ed_iWii[ii[Zi[fWhWj[bojea[[fj^[[hhehYecfed[djie\j^[ceZ[bfh[#
Z_Yj_edi_dZ[f[dZ[dj$J^kiikcc_d]kfj^[[ij_cWj[Zfhefehj_edicWoh[ikbj_d
dkcX[hib[iij^Wdeh]h[Wj[hj^Wd'"m^_Y^h[gk_h[iWm[_]^j_d]e\j^[[ij_cWj[Z
fhefehj_ediiej^Wjj^[ikccWhoe\Wbbif[Y_[i_i[gkWbje'$
J^[\_dWbij[fe\j^[h[][d[hWj_edWii[iic[djZkh_d]j^[bWij+o[Whi_ij^[[i#
j_cWj_ed e\ _ji Z[di_jo$7YYehZ_d] je ;g$/$+ W Fe_iied ceZ[b e\ j^[ \ebbem_d]
\ehc_iki[Z0
'dd%c(3\9ECF":8>cWn"If">J"IJ"LJ";:=;
m^[h[ bdd%c( _i j^[ be]Wh_j^c e\ j^[ dkcX[h e\ jh[[i _d j^[ ^[_]^j YbWii
b(&YcWdZWbblWh_WXb[iWh[Wifh[l_ekiboZ[\_d[ZA_dZ[hcWdd[jWb$(&&($EdY[
'-* #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
4ABLEÈÈ3UMMARYÈSTATISTICSÈOFÈTHEÈCALIBRATIONÈANDÈVALIDATIONÈDATAÈSETÈFORÈTHEÈSPECIES
SPECIFICÈ
JUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈMODELSÈ$ATAÈFORÈPARAMETERIZATIONÈAREÈFROMÈTHEÈÈPERMANENTÈ
RESEARCHÈPLOTSÈATÈTHEÈ%XPERIMENTALÈ&ORESTÈÈPLOTSÈINÈ+AMMERÈANDÈÈRESEARCHÈPLOTSÈINÈ,ITSCHAUÈ
6ALIDATIONÈDATAÈAREÈTHEÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈMEASUREMENTSÈOFÈTHEÈPERMANENTÈINVENTORYÈDESIGNÈATÈ
THEÈ5NIVERSITYÈ%XPERIMENTALÈ&ORESTÈ.È.UMBERÈOFÈTREESÈWITHÈOBSERVEDÈ
YEARÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈ
H2EGÈHEIGHTÈOFÈTHEÈJUVENILEÈTREEÈ IHISTÈOBSERVEDÈ
YEARÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈ .TALLERMÈNUMBERÈOFÈ
TREESÈPERÈMÈWHICHÈAREÈTALLERÈTHANÈTHEÈSUBJECTÈTREEÈ##&ÈDISTANCE
INDEPENDENTÈCROWNÈCOMPETI
TIONÈFACTORÈTREESÈÈCMÈ$"( È35-$ÈEDGE
EFFECTEDÈINCIDENCEÈOFÈLIGHT
$ATAÈFORÈVALIDATIONÈINVENTORYÈPLOTSÈFROMÈTHEÈ%XPERIMENTALÈ&OREST
j^[h[][d[hWj_edZ[di_jo_iWlW_bWXb[_jYWdX[ckbj_fb_[ZXoj^[if[Y_[ifhefehj_ed
;g$/$*jefheZkY[j^[\_dWbh[][d[hWj_edZ[di_jojh[[ib(&YcXoif[Y_[i$
:k[ je j^[ ^_]^ hWdZec _cfWYji" Z[di_jo fh[Z_Yj_edi Wh[ j^[ ceij Z_\\_Ykbj
fWhj_dWii[ii_d]h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj$Jefhel_Z[iec[i_cfb[Wbj[hdWj_l[i
YecfWh[Zjej^[\ehckbWj_ed]_l[d_d;g$/$+"m[^Wl[Wbiej[ij[Zi[l[hWbYec#
X_dWj_edi e\ hWdZec dkcX[hi0 j^[ \_hij efj_ed mekbZ X[ je Z[\_d[ W cWn_ckc
È -ETHODS '-+
4ABLEÈÈ3UMMARYÈSTATISTICSÈOFÈJUVENILEÈTREESÈRECORDEDÈBYÈSPECIESÈTOÈASSESSÈBROWSINGÈIMPACTSÈ
4HEÈTREESÈWEREÈRECORDEDÈONÈTHEÈPERMANENTÈPLOTSÈINÈÈANDÈ
È 3PECIES
4ABLEÈÈ#OEFFICIENTÈESTIMATESÈFORÈDRIVINGÈTHEÈCOMPETITIONÈINDEXÈBYÈTREEÈSPECIES
dkcX[he\`kl[d_b[iXoif[Y_[i_dj^[^[_]^jYbWii§(&Yc$7iWi[YedZefj_edm[
ik]][ijWhWdZecdkcX[hnX[jm[[d&WdZ'\ehj^[^[_]^jYbWii§(&Ycm[_]^j#
[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[\ebbem_d]\ehc0
?dd%c(3Ä)$)/*!*$.+/Õn
È
*UVENILEÈ(EIGHTÈ'ROWTH
?\j^[Z[di_joe\j^[h[][d[hWj_ed_iademd"W`kl[d_b[jh[[^[_]^j]hemj^ceZ#
[b_id[[Z[Zjefh[Z_Yjj^[h[][d[hWj_ed]hemj^kdj_bW]_l[dj^h[i^ebZje[dj[h
j^[el[hijehojh[[i§'$+c$<ehj^_ifkhfei[=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-_d#
jheZkY[Z Wd WffheWY^ j^Wj fh[Z_Yji j^[ ^[_]^j ]hemj^ e\ W h[fh[i[djWj_l[ jh[[
\eh[WY^if[Y_[iWdZ^[_]^jYbWiie\jh[[§'$)cki_d]0'j^[Yecf[j_j_ede\j^[
h[cW_d_d] el[hijeho E9?" ( j^[ _djhW# WdZ _dj[hif[Y_[i Yecf[j_j_ed Wced]
j^[h[][d[hWj_ed_ji[b\H9?"WdZ)WceZ_\_[h\ehj^[[Z][#[\\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[
'-, #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
e\ b_]^j ;?B$ J^_i ceZ_\_[h _i d[[Z[Z X[YWki[ Yecf[j_j_ed#_dZkY[Z Z[Yb_d[ _d
^[_]^j_dYh[c[djcWoX[h[ZkY[Zeh[l[dYecf[diWj[Z\ehXofeii_Xb[[Z][#[\#
\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^j$J^[eh_]_dWbceZ[b^Wij^[\ebbem_d]\ehc0
Ä'
ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ!YÕ;?B
_^eXi3_^fejÕ '#[WÕE9?!XÕH9?
m^[h[_^eXi_ij^[Ykhh[djf[h_eZ_YWb+#o[Wh^[_]^j_dYh[c[dje\Wh[fh[i[dj#
Wj_l[ jh[[ WdZ _^fej _i j^[ fej[dj_Wb ^[_]^j ]hemj^ Z[j[hc_d[Z \hec i_j[ _dZ[n
Ykhl[i$
J^[Yecf[j_j_ede\j^[h[cW_d_d]el[hijeho_iWiikc[ZjeX[i_c_bWh\ehWbb
`kl[d_b[jh[[iedW]_l[dc_Yhei_j[m_j^_dj^[ijWdZ9^WpZed'/..WdZ_iYWb#
YkbWj[ZWij^[el[hbWfe\j^[fej[dj_WbYhemdWh[WX[jm[[dj^[`j^jh[[WdZj^[h[#
][d[hWj_edfbeje\*c(((c8[bbW'/-'$<eh[WY^iWcfb[fbejj^[E9?_iYed#
ijWdj$
?djhW#WdZ_dj[hif[Y_[iYecf[j_j_edWced]`kl[d_b[jh[[i_iZ[\_d[ZWiWYec#
f[j_j_edc[Wikh[\eh[WY^^[_]^jYbWiiWdZif[Y_[ih[fh[i[djWj_l[WdZYWdX[YWb#
YkbWj[ZWi\ebbemi0j^[fej[dj_WbWh[We\_d\bk[dY[\ehef[d#]hemdjh[[i>Wi[dWk#
[h'//-_ickbj_fb_[ZXoj^[dkcX[he\_dZ_l_ZkWbiWdZXoif[Y_[im_j^_dW]_l[d
^[_]^jYbWii$J^[i[h[ikbjiWh[WZZ[Z\ehWbb^[_]^jYbWii[i]h[Wj[heh[gkWbjej^[
^[_]^jYbWiie\W]_l[dh[fh[i[djWj_l[jh[[$
;Z][[\\[YjiWh[Yedi_Z[h[Zm_j^_dj^[b_c_je\jm_Y[j^[ijWdZ^[_]^ji[[Wbie
<b[cc_d]'/,(19Wd^Wc[jWb$'//&XoYWbYkbWj_d]j^[cWn_ckcWd]b[e\_dY_#
Z[dY[e\b_]^jWdZWm[_]^j[Zikce\j^[Z_ijWdY[ijej^[ijWdZ[Z][i$<eh\khj^[h
Z[jW_bih[bWj[Zjej^[eh_]_dWbceZ[b"m[h[\[hje=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-$
7bj^ek]^j^[ijkZoXo=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-[nfbeh[ZikYY[ii\kbboj^[
Z[h_l_d]lWh_WXb[i\ehWii[ii_d]`kl[d_b[jh[[^[_]^j]hemj^"j^[_cfb[c[djWj_ed
e\j^_iWb]eh_j^c_dWjh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d][dl_hedc[dj[$]$CEI;Ijkhd[Zekj
jeX[hWj^[hYecfb[n$9edi[gk[djbo>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(WZefj[Z
j^[ceZ[bXoa[[f_d]j^[ZWjWh[gk_h[ZWii_cfb[Wifeii_Xb[je[dikh[[Wio_c#
fb[c[djWj_ed_d[n_ij_d]jh[[]hemj^$
J^[\ebbem_d]Y^Wd][im[h[Wffb_[ZjeWY^_[l[j^_i]eWb0'j^[Z_ijWdY[#Z[#
f[dZ[djYecf[j_j_edc[Wikh[E9?mWih[fbWY[ZXoWZ_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djYec#
f[j_j_edc[Wikh[99<WYYehZ_d]jeAhW`_Y[a[jWb$'/,'1(j^[Yecfb[nYWbYkbW#
j_ede\j^[H9?\eh[WY^h[fh[i[djWj_l[jh[[=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-mWih[#
fbWY[ZXoj^[dkcX[he\`kl[d_b[ijWbb[hj^Wdj^[ikX`[Yjjh[[DjWbb[h$1);?B"j^[
ceZ_\_[h\eh[Z][#[\\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^j"mWiikXij_jkj[ZXoj^[ikce\j^[
Z_ijWdY[i:?IJjej^[ijWdZ[Z][i2,&c_d[_]^jfeii_Xb[Z_h[Yj_ediD"DE"E"
IE"I"IM"M"DM$J^[\_dWbd[mi_cfb_\_[Z[gkWj_ed\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]`kl[d_b[jh[[
^[_]^j]hemj^^WZj^[\ebbem_d]\ehc0
Ä'
_^eXi3_^fejÕ '#[WÕ99<!XÕDjWbb[h 3
ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ!YÕ
IKC:
m^[h[_^eXi_ij^[Ykhh[djf[h_eZ_YWb+#o[Wh^[_]^j_dYh[c[dje\WÈh[fh[i[dj#
Wj_l[jh[[ÉXoif[Y_[iWdZ^[_]^jYbWii"_^fej_ij^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j]hemj^Z[j[h#
c_d[Z\heci_j[_dZ[nYkhl[iWdZWbbej^[hfWhWc[j[hiWh[Wifh[l_ekiboZ[\_d[Z$
È -ETHODS '--
Ki_d]j^[_Z[dj_YWbZWjWi[j\ehYWb_XhWj_d]j^[ceZ[biXoif[Y_[i"m[Wii[ii[Zj^[
Y^Wd][_dj^[h[ikbj_d]fh[Z_Yj_ediX[jm[[dj^[eh_]_dWbceZ[bijhkYjkh[;g$/$-
WdZekhd[mi_cfb_\_[Zl[hi_ed;g$/$.$
<_]kh[/$( ]_l[i j^[ h[ikbji \eh j^[ el[hijeho Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n \eh DehmWo
ifhkY[WdZYeccedX[[Y^Wim[bbWiIYejif_d[WdZi_bl[h\_h$J^[XebZb_d[i_d#
Z_YWj[j^[h[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[dh[bWj_l[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djWdZ j^[eh_]_dWbZ_i#
jWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj Yecf[j_j_ed c[Wikh[ E9? j^[ el[hijeho Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n
Wiki[Z_d=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-$J^[ZWi^[Zb_d[i]_l[j^[h[bWj_edi^_f
\ehj^[iWc[h[bWj_l[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djiWdZj^[Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djel[hijeho
Yecf[j_j_edc[Wikh[99<YhemdYecf[j_j_ed\WYjehWYYehZ_d]jeAhW`_Y[a[jWb$
'/,'$Dej[j^WjW99<j_c[i&$*_ii_c_bWhjej^[E9?\ehW]_l[del[hijehoi_jkW#
j_ed$I_c_bWhh[ikbjim[h[Wbie[l_Z[dj\ehIYejif_d[WdZ\_h$
&IGÈÈ#OMPARISONÈOFÈTHEÈRELATIONSHIPSÈBETWEENÈTHEÈDISTANCE
DEPENDENTÈOVERSTORYÈCOMPE
TITIONÈ/#) ÈANDÈTHEÈDISTANCE
INDEPENDENTÈMEASUREÈ##& ÈVERSUSÈTHEÈRELATIVEÈ
YEARÈHEIGHTÈIN
CREMENTÈIHISTIHPOTÈFORÈSPRUCEÈANDÈBEECHÈABOVE ÈANDÈPINEÈANDÈFIRÈBELOW È.OTEÈTHATÈATÈAÈGIVENÈ
STANDÈDENSITYÈTHEÈ/#)ÈISÈSIMILARÈTOÈAÈ##&ÈTIMESÈÈCONVERSIONÈFACTOR
'-. #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
<_]kh[/$)i^emij^[[\\[Yje\ekhY^Wd][ijej^[_dj[h#WdZ_djhWif[Y_\_YYec#
f[j_j_edc[Wikh[\ehX[[Y^WdZ\ekh]_l[del[hijehoYecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_edi$J^[
H9?h[fh[i[djij^[_dj[h#WdZ_djhWif[Y_\_YYecf[j_j_edc[Wikh[m_j^_dj^[h[][d#
[hWj_edWiZ[l[bef[ZXo=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-$J^[iWc[el[hijehoYec#
f[j_j_ed _i Wiikc[Z WdZ j^[ `kl[d_b[ jh[[ ^[_]^j ]hemj^ h[bWj_edi^_f l[hiki j^[
d[mi_cfb_\_[ZYecf[j_j_edc[Wikh[DjWbb[hWbbjh[[ij^WjWh[jWbb[hj^Wdj^[ikX#
`[Yjjh[[_iZ[f_Yj[Z$Dej[j^WjWE9?3'_ii_c_bWhjeW99<e\&$*&"WdZWdH9?e\
+_ii_c_bWhjeDjWbb[he\'&"h[if[Yj_l[bo$
<_]kh[/$*]_l[ij^[h[ikbjie\feii_Xb[[Z][[\\[Yji\ehi_bl[h\_hWjW]_l[del[h#
ijehoYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nE9?3/m^_Y^_ii_c_bWhje99<3)$+,$J^[eh_]_dWbceZ#
&IGÈÈ#OMPARISONÈOFÈTHEÈINTRA
ÈANDÈINTERSPECIESÈCOMPETITIONÈMEASUREÈONÈTHEÈRESULTINGÈREL
ATIVEÈPROPORTIONSÈOFÈTHEÈ
YEARÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈIHISTIHPOTÈFORÈBEECHÈACCORDINGÈTOÈ'OLSERÈANDÈ
(ASENAUERÈ ÈANDÈTHEÈSIMPLIFICATIONÈEXPRESSEDÈBYÈTHEÈTOTALÈNUMBERÈOFÈTREESÈTALLERÈ.TALLER È
THANÈTHEÈSUBJECTÈTREEÈ&OURÈDIFFERENTÈOVERSTORYÈCOMPETITIONÈSCENARIOSÈAREÈPRESENTEDÈ.OTEÈTHATÈ
ANÈ/#)ÈISÈSIMILARÈTOÈAÈ##&È.OÈEDGE
EFFECTEDÈINCIDENCEÈOFÈLIGHTÈISÈASSUMED
È -ETHODS '-/
&IGÈÈ#OMPARISONÈOFÈTHEÈEDGE
EFFECTEDÈINCIDENCEÈOFÈLIGHTÈBETWEENÈTHEÈORIGINALÈAPPROACHÈ
DEVELOPEDÈBYÈ'OLSERÈANDÈ(ASENAUERÈ ÈANDÈOURÈSIMPLIFICATIONSÈUSINGÈTHEÈSUMÈOFÈTHEÈDIS
TANCESÈ$IST ÈIFÈTHEÈSTANDÈEDGEÈISÈÈMÈINÈTHEÈEIGHTÈPOSSIBLEÈDIRECTIONSÈ4HEÈRESULTSÈGIVEÈTHEÈRE
LATIONSHIPÈFORÈSILVERÈFIRÈATÈAÈGIVENÈOVERSTORYÈCOMPETITIONÈ/#)ÈWHICHÈISÈSIMILARÈTOÈAÈ##& È
.OTEÈTHATÈTHEÈDIFFERENCEÈBETWEENÈTHEÈLINESÈ NOÈEDGEÈEFFECTÈANDÈ/RIGINALÈANDÈ3IMPLIFICATIONÈRE
SPECTIVELYÈINDICATESÈTHEÈRELATIVEÈIMPROVEMENTÈORÈCOMPENSATIONÈINÈTHEÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈDUEÈ
TOÈEDGE
EFFECTEDÈINCIDENCEÈOFÈLIGHT
[bki[ij^[Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djYecf[j_j_edc[Wikh[E9?WdZ;?B"j^[ckbj_fb_[h
\ehWii[ii_d][Z][[\\[YjiZk[je_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^j=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-$
J^[WZWfj[Zi_cfb_\_[Zl[hi_ed_iXWi[Zedj^[Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djYecf[j_j_ed
c[Wikh[99<fbkij^[ikce\j^[Z_ijWdY[ijej^[ijWdZ[Z][_d[_]^jfeii_Xb[Z_#
h[Yj_ediD"DE"E"IE"IM"M"DM_\j^[ijWdZ[Z][_i2,&c$Dej[j^Wjj^[Z_\#
\[h[dY[X[jm[[dj^[b_d[ide[Z][[\\[YjWdZEh_]_dWbWdZI_cfb_\_YWj_ed<_]$/$*
_dZ_YWj[ij^[h[bWj_l[_cfhel[c[djehYecf[diWj_ed_dj^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djhWj_e
Zk[jeWlW_bWXb[[Z][#[\\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^jl[hikide[Z][[\\[Yji$J^[Z_\\[h#
[dY[i_dj^[fh[i[dj[Zh[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[dj^[WffheWY^Z[l[bef[ZXo=ebi[h
WdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-WdZj^[WZWfj[Zl[hi_edWYYehZ_d]je;g$/$.cWoX[Yed#
i_Z[h[ZWij^[beii_dWYYkhWYoZk[jei_cfb_\_YWj_ed$I_c_bWhh[ikbji^Wl[X[[dfh[#
i[dj[Z\ehWbbej^[hjh[[if[Y_[iA_dZ[hcWdd(&&*$
È
*UVENILEÈ4REEÈ-ORTALITY
@kl[d_b[jh[[cehjWb_jo_iceZ[b[Z_djmeij[fi0'\eh[WY^if[Y_[i"j^[cWn#
_ckcZ[di_joehcWn_ckcYecf[j_j_ed\WYjeh;g$/$(j^WjZ[\_d[ij^[j^h[i^#
ebZ\ehijWhj_d]Yecf[j_j_ed#_dZkY[ZcehjWb_jo_iZ[\_d[Z$J^[_dZ_l_ZkWbiX[oedZ
j^_ib_c_jZ_[$J^[icWbb[ijjh[[iZ_[\_hij1(j^[i[YedZfeii_X_b_jo\ehcehjWb_#
jo_i_dZkY[ZXohWdZec[\\[Yji"m^_Y^jWa[_djeWYYekdjj^Wjjh[[icWoWbieZ_[
Zk[jefWj^e][di"idemehej^[h[dl_hedc[djWbh_iaiB[WaWdZ=hWX[h'/-,$<eh
'.& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
j^_ifkhfei[m[ki[Wd[gkWbboZ_ijh_Xkj[ZhWdZecdkcX[hX[jm[[d&WdZ'$?d
;g$/$/n_i2&$/.WdZ_d;g$/$'&n_i¨&$/.$
½½½½½½½½½½½½½½n
Fcehj3ÄÄÄ
½½½½½½½½½½½½½+&
Fcehj3nÄ&$/.Õ+&
;gkWj_edi/$/ WdZ /$'& Wh[ XWi[Z ed j^[ \ebbem_d] _Z[W0 Y^eei_d] W hWd#
ZecdkcX[hX[jm[[d&WdZ'c[Wdij^Wj^Wb\e\j^[jh[[imekbZZ_["m^_Y^_i_d#
Yehh[Yj$?\m[Wiikc[j^Wjj^[Wl[hW][WddkWbhWdZecbo_dZkY[ZcehjWb_jo_i'
;g$/$/"j^[cWn_ckchWdZeccehjWb_jom_bbX[($J^_iYWdX[_dj[hfh[j[ZWi
j^[ Z[di_jo#h[bWj[Z hWdZec h[ZkYj_ed e\ `kl[d_b[i$ Je WZZ_j_edWbbo WYYekdj \eh
ej^[hhWdZec[\\[Yjim^_Y^Z[l_Wj[\hecj^[Wl[hW][hWdZeccehjWb_joWi]_l[d
Xo;g$/$/m[YWbYkbWj[j^[cehjWb_joWYYehZ_d]je;g$/$'&$
È
!NALYSESÈANDÈ2ESULTS
?d j^_i i[Yj_ed m[ ' fh[i[dj j^[ \_dWb ceZ[bi Wi j^[o Wh[ Ykhh[djbo WlW_bW#
Xb[WdZki[Z_dekhjh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_d][dl_hedc[dj"(f[h\ehcj^[lWb_ZW#
j_edWdWboi[i")i^emh[ikbjie\^emfej[dj_WbXhemi_d]cWoX[WZZh[ii[Z"WdZ
*]_l[iec[Z[cedijhWj_ediWdZ[nWcfb[ie\ceZ[b_d]h[][d[hWj_edm_j^_dkd#
[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZiki_d]j^[Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj]hemj^i_ckbWjeh
CEI;I >Wi[dWk[h '//*$ Dej[ j^Wj j^[ [gkWj_edi \eh h[][d[hWj_ed Wii[iic[dj
lWb_ZWj[Z_dj^_iijkZo_dYbkZ[edboj^ei[fWhWc[j[hij^Wj[dj[h[Zj^[ceZ[bii_]#
d_\_YWdjboA3&$&+$J^_i_i_cfehjWdjX[YWki[_\j^_iWffheWY^^WZX[[dYWb_XhWj#
[Zki_d]ZWjW\hecej^[hh[]_edi"j^[h[ikbj_d]i_]d_\_YWdjceZ[bfWhWc[j[hicWo
^Wl[X[[dZ_\\[h[dj$
È
!SSESSINGÈ2EGENERATION
J^[\_hijceZ[bd[[Z[ZjeWii[iih[][d[hWj_ed_ij^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hW#
j_edm_j^_dW+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ$?d;g$/$'j^[b[\j#^WdZi_Z[e\j^[\ehckbW#
j_ed_iWZ_Y^ejecekilWh_WXb[X[YWki[edbojmei_jkWj_ediWh[feii_Xb[0h[][d[h#
Wj_edo[iehde'eh&$IkY^[gkWj_ediWh[h[\[hh[ZjeWigkWb_joh[ifedi[GH
ceZ[bi9kj^X[hjied[jWb$'//($J^[[ij_cWj_ede\Ye[\\_Y_[djiki_d]EBIc[j^#
eZi_idejWffb_YWXb[i_dY[0'dedehcWbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\j^[h[i_ZkWbiYWdX[Wi#
ikc[Z"(de^ece][d[_joe\j^[lWh_WdY[[n_iji"WdZ)_j_idejWiikh[Zj^Wjj^[
fh[Z_Yj_edihWd][X[jm[[d&WdZ'$
?dikY^i_jkWj_edij^[Ye[\\_Y_[djiWh[[ij_cWj[Zm_j^j^[cWn_ckcb_a[b_^eeZ
CBc[j^eZe\j^[be]_ij_YjhWdi\ehcWj_ed\ehWd[n_ij_d]X_dec_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ed
9kj^X[hjied[jWb$'//($J^_ic[j^eZZ[j[hc_d[ij^[Ye[\\_Y_[djiXocWn_c_p#
_d]j^[fheXWX_b_joe\j^[eYYkhh[dY[e\j^[Z[f[dZ[djlWbk[i&WdZ'Wi_jcWo
È !NALYSESÈANDÈ2ESULTS '.'
X[Z[h_l[ZXoj^[l[Yjehe\j^[_dZ[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[i$J^[b_a[b_^eeZe\h[][d[hW#
j_edQFO3'3<XnSehdeh[][d[hWj_edQFO3&3'Ä<XnSd[[ZijeX[Wii[ii[Z$
J^[_dl[hi[jhWdi\ehcWj_ede\j^[Z[di_jo\kdYj_ed_iYeccedboh[\[hh[ZjeWij^[
BE=?J$J^[\_dWbceZ[b\ehWii[ii_d]j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_ed_dYbkZ_d]Wbb
lWh_WXb[iWdZYe[\\_Y_[djim^_Y^[dj[h[Zj^[ceZ[bi_]d_\_YWdjboA3&$&+^Wij^[
\ebbem_d]\ehci[[WbieA_dZ[hcWdd[jWb$(&&(0
'
f3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
'![&$*'*Õ9ECF#&$&(./Õ:8>cWn"If#&$&).*Õ:8>cWn"8[#&$&,*Õ:8>cWn"<_#&$&&(,Õ:8>cWn"Ej
m^[h[ f _i j^[ fheXWX_b_jo e\ h[][d[hWj_ed m_j^_d W +#o[Wh ]hemj^ f[h_eZ"
9ECF j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n Wi ]_l[d _d ;g$/$(" WdZ :8>cWn"If" :8>cWn"8["
:8>cWn"<_ WdZ :8>cWn"Ej Wh[ j^[ cWn_ckc Xh[Wij ^[_]^j Z_Wc[j[h \eh ifhkY["
X[[Y^"\_hWdZWbbej^[hif[Y_[i$J^[*((_dl[djehofbejiJWXb[/$'e\j^[Kd_l[h#
i_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ijm[h[ki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_ed$
JelWb_ZWj[j^[Z[l[bef[Zh[bWj_edi^_fim[[cfbeo[Zj^[('*h[cW_d_d]_dl[d#
jehofbejie\j^[;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ij"j^[.,eXi[hlWj_edi\hecj^[>_hiY^bWYa[Wi
m[bbWij^[,-,_dl[djehofbeji\hecj^[B_c[ijed[DWj_edWbFWhaJWXb[/$'$J^[
h[ikbjiWh[]_l[d_dJWXb[/$+0m^[h[»]_l[ij^[Z_\\[h[dY[_df[hY[dj\ehfh[#
4ABLEÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈVALIDATIONÈRUNSÈFORÈASSESSINGÈTHEÈPROBABILITYÈOFÈREGENERATIONÈ4HEÈDA
TAÈWEREÈNOTÈUSEDÈFORÈCALIBRATINGÈTHEÈMODELSÈ.È.UMBERÈOFÈSAMPLEÈPLOTSÈ.2EGÈNUMBERÈOFÈSAMPLEÈ
PLOTSÈWITHÈOBSERVEDÈREGENERATIONÈ.-ODELÈNUMBERÈOFÈSAMPLEÈPLOTSÈWITHÈPREDICTEDÈREGENERATIONÈ
$È ÈRELATIVEÈDIFFERENCEÈBETWEENÈPREDICTEDÈANDÈOBSERVEDÈREGENERATIONÈ;.-ODELn.2EG .2EG=È
2EGENnYESÈ ÈPERCENTAGEÈOFÈCORRECTLYÈCLASSIFIEDÈPLOTSÈEGÈONÈÈOFÈTHEÈPLOTSÈINÈTHEÈEXPERI
MENTALÈFORESTÈWITHÈREGENERATIONÈTHEÈMODELÈALSOÈPREDICTEDÈREGENERATIONÈ2EGENnNOÈ ÈPERCENT
AGEÈOFÈCORRECTLYÈCLASSIFIEDÈPLOTSÈWITHÈNOÈREGENERATIONÈ!LLÈ ÈPERCENTAGEÈOFÈCORRECTLYÈCLASSIFIEDÈ
PLOTSÈWITHÈORÈWITHOUTÈREGENERATION
È ,OCATION
È %XPERIMENTALÈ&ORESTÈ (IRSCHLACKEÈ .ATIONALÈ0ARK
4ABLEÈÈ 2ESULTSÈ OFÈ THEÈ COEFFICIENTÈ ESTIMATESÈ TOÈ ASSESSÈ THEÈ SPECIESÈ PROPORTIONÈ OFÈ REGENERA
TIONÈIFÈREGENERATIONÈOCCURSÈ È3IGNIFICANTÈWITHÈAÈ#/-0ÈCOMPETITIONÈINDEXÈACCORDINGÈTOÈ
%QÈ È%$'%ÈEDGEÈEFFECTÈWITHINÈTWICEÈTHEÈDOMINANTÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈINÈONEÈOFÈTHEÈEIGHTÈDIRECTIONSÈ
ÈM È$"(MAX3PÈMAXIMUMÈDIAMETERÈATÈBREASTÈHEIGHTÈFORÈSPRUCEÈ$"(MAX"EÈMAXIMUMÈDIAME
TERÈATÈBREASTÈHEIGHTÈFORÈBEECHÈ$"(MAX&IÈMAXIMUMÈDIAMETERÈATÈBREASTÈHEIGHTÈFORÈFIRÈ$"(MAX/TÈ
MAXIMUMÈDIAMETERÈATÈBREASTÈHEIGHTÈFORÈALLÈOTHERÈSPECIES
#/-0ÈIFÈ%$'%ÈÈYESÈ nÈ nÈ nÈ
#/-0ÈIFÈ%$'%ÈÈNOÈ nÈ nÈ nÈ
Z_Yj[Zl[hikieXi[hl[Zh[][d[hWj_ed1H[][dÄo[ij^[dkcX[he\Yehh[YjboYbWi#
i_\_[Zfbejim_j^fh[Z_Yj[Zh[][d[hWj_ededfbejim_j^eXi[hl[Zh[][d[hWj_ed1H[#
][dÄdej^[dkcX[he\Yehh[YjboYbWii_\_[Zfbejim_j^fh[Z_Yj[Zdeh[][d[hW#
j_ededfbejim_j^deh[][d[hWj_ed1WdZ7bbj^[h[bWj_l[fhefehj_ede\Yehh[Yj#
boYbWii_\_[Zfbejim_j^WdZm_j^ekjh[][d[hWj_ed$
;gkWj_ed/$*]_l[ij^[if[Y_[ifhefehj_ed$M_j^j^[ZWjW\hecj^[Kd_l[hi_#
joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ijJWXb[/$'\eh[WY^if[Y_[iWi[fWhWj[BE=?JceZ[bki#
_d]j^[CB[ij_cWj_edc[j^eZmWiYWb_XhWj[Z$J^[h[ikbjie\j^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Y#
j_edi\ehifhkY["X[[Y^"\_hWdZWbbej^[hif[Y_[iWh[]_l[d_dJWXb[/$,$J^[lWb_#
ZWj_edh[ikbjiXoif[Y_[iWh[]_l[d_dJWXb[/$-$Edfbejim_j^h[][d[hWj_edD"m[
YecfWh[j^[fh[Z_Yj[ZDCeZ[bl[hikieXi[hl[Zfbejim_j^h[][d[hWj_edDH[]"j^[
h[bWj_l[Z_\\[h[dY[iX[jm[[dfh[Z_Yj[ZWdZeXi[hl[Zfbejim_j^if[Y_[ih[][d[hW#
j_ed»"j^[f[hY[djW][e\Yehh[YjboYbWii_\_[Zfbejim_j^H[]Äo[iehm_j^#
È !NALYSESÈANDÈ2ESULTS '.)
4ABLEÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈMODELÈVALIDATIONÈPREDICTIONSÈFORÈASSESSINGÈTHEÈSPECIESÈPROPORTIONÈONÈ
AÈGIVENÈPLOTÈWITHÈREGENERATIONÈ4HEÈDATAÈWEREÈNOTÈUSEDÈFORÈCALIBRATINGÈTHEÈMODELSÈ.È.UMBERÈ
OFÈ SAMPLEÈ PLOTSÈ WITHÈ REGENERATIONÈ .2EGÈ NUMBERÈ OFÈ SAMPLEÈ PLOTSÈ WITHÈ OBSERVEDÈ REGENERA
TIONÈOFÈTHEÈSPECIESÈ.-ODELÈNUMBERÈOFÈSAMPLEÈPLOTSÈWITHÈPREDICTEDÈREGENERATIONÈOFÈTHEÈSPECIESÈÈ
$È ÈRELATIVEÈDIFFERENCEÈBETWEENÈPREDICTEDÈANDÈOBSERVEDÈREGENERATIONÈOFÈTHEÈSPECIESÈ;.-ODELn
.2EG .2EG=È2EGENnYESÈ ÈPERCENTAGEÈOFÈCORRECTLYÈCLASSIFIEDÈPLOTSÈEGÈONÈÈOFÈTHEÈPLOTSÈWITHÈ
SPRUCEÈREGENERATIONÈTHEÈMODELÈHASÈPREDICTEDÈSPRUCEÈREGENERATIONÈ2EGENnNOÈ ÈPERCENTAGEÈ
OFÈCORRECTLYÈCLASSIFIEDÈPLOTSÈWHEREÈNOÈSPRUCEÈREGENERATIONÈOCCURSÈ!LLÈ ÈPERCENTAGEÈOFÈCORRECT
LYÈCLASSIFIEDÈPLOTSÈWITHÈORÈWITHOUTÈSPRUCEÈREGENERATION
%XPERIMENTALÈ
&ORESTÈ 3PRUCEÈ È È È
È È È
ekjH[]Ädee\W]_l[dif[Y_[ih[][d[hWj_edWim[bbWi\ehWbbYehh[YjboYbWii_#
\_[Zfbeji7bb$
J^[bWijij[f_dj^[Wii[iic[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed_ij^[[ij_cWj_ede\_jiZ[di_jo$
<ebbem_d];g$/$+j^[ckbj_fb[b_d[Whh[]h[ii_ede\j^[\ehckbWj[ZFe_iiedceZ#
[bh[ikbj[Z_di_]d_\_YWdjA3&$&+Ye[\\_Y_[dji\eh
_dd%c(3Ä&$&&)-Õ:8>cWn"If!&$&&//Õ:8>cWn"8[!&$&&,&Õ:>:cWn"<_
!&$&&+'Õ:8>cWn"Ej#&$+,Õ;:=;de#&$,/Õ;:=;o[i
'.* #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
m^[h[ bdd%c( _i j^[ be]Wh_j^c e\ Wbb d[m `kl[d_b[i _d j^[ ^[_]^j YbWii
b (&Yc%c(" :8>cWn"If" :8>cWn"8[" :8>cWn"<_ WdZ :8>cWnEj Wh[ j^[ cWn_ckc
Z_Wc[j[hiWjXh[Wij^[_]^j\ehifhkY["X[[Y^"\_hWdZWbbej^[hjh[[if[Y_[i_dYc"
WdZ;:=;deWdZ;:=;o[iWh[j^[ZkccolWh_WXb[i\ehWd[n_ij_d]ijWdZ[Z][_d
ed[e\j^[[_]^jZ_h[Yj_ediWdZm_j^_dj^[b_c_je\jm_Y[j^[Zec_dWdjijWdZ^[_]^j
,&c$
J^[ lWb_ZWj_ed e\ j^_i Z[di_jo \kdYj_ed Xo YecfWh_d] fh[Z_Yj[Z l[hiki eX#
i[hl[Zh[][d[hWj_edZ[di_j_[if[higkWh[c[j[h\ehj^[_dl[djehofbejih[l[Wb[Z
j^[ \ebbem_d] h[ikbji0 ' j^[ '') _dl[djeho fbeji m_j^ eXi[hl[Z h[][d[hWj_ed Wj
j^[Kd_l[hi_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ij[n^_X_j[ZWi_]d_\_YWdjh[bWj_edi^_fh3&$)&"
j#lWbk[3)$*4jA3&$&+"<=3''(3'$/,1WdZ(j^[+&&_dl[djehofbejim_j^eXi[hl[Z
h[][d[hWj_ed\hecj^[B_c[ijed[DWj_edWbFWhaWbiei^em[ZWi_]d_\_YWdjh[bWj_ed#
i^_fX[jm[[dfh[Z_Yj[ZWdZeXi[hl[Z`kl[d_b[jh[[Z[di_j_[ih3&$'+"j#lWbk[3)$)
4jA3&$&+"<=3*//3'$/,$
È
(EIGHTÈ)NCREMENTÈ0REDICTIONS
I_dY[j^[[nf[Yj[Zh[ZkYj_ed_dWYYkhWYo_ih[bWj_l[boicWbbX[jm[[dj^[Z_i#
jWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj_dYh[c[djWb^[_]^j]hemj^ceZ[bWdZj^[Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dj
ceZ[b>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(m[d[njlWb_ZWj[Zj^[i_cfb_\_[Z^[_]^j
_dYh[c[dj ceZ[b Xo YecfWh_d] fh[Z_Yj[Z l[hiki eXi[hl[Z +#o[Wh ^[_]^j _dYh[#
c[dji ki_d] j^[ ^[_]^j _dYh[c[dj eXi[hlWj_edi \hec j^[ _dl[djeho fbeji e\ j^[
Kd_l[hi_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ijJWXb[/$($J^[if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_YfWhWc[j[h[ij_#
cWj[ie\j^[Yehh[ifedZ_d]^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[bi"m^_Y^m[h[Z[l[bef[Zki#
_d]^[_]^j_dYh[c[djZWjW\hecekhf[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbejiJWXb[/$("Wh[b_ij#
[Z_dJWXb[/$.$
4ABLEÈÈ#OEFFICIENTÈESTIMATESÈFORÈTHEÈSPECIES
SPECIFICÈJUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈMOD
ELSÈÈ3IGNIFICANTÈWITHÈAÈ##&ÈCROWNÈCOMPETITIONÈFACTORÈACCORDINGÈTOÈ+RAIJECEKÈETÈALÈ È
.TALLERÈ NUMBERÈ OFÈ TREESÈ TALLERÈ THANÈ THEÈ SUBJECTÈ TREEÈ 35-$È SUMÈ OFÈ THEÈ DISTANCESÈ TOÈ THEÈ STANDÈ
EDGE
M[ijWhj[Zj^[lWb_ZWj_edki_d]WfW_h[Zj#j[ijjej[ijm^[j^[hi_]d_\_YWdjZ_\#
\[h[dY[iA3&$&+X[jm[[dfh[Z_Yj_ediWdZeXi[hlWj_edicWo[n_ijWim[bbWij^[
[nf[Yj[Z[hhehhWd][e\j^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edi$<ehj^_ifkhfei[j^[Yed\_Z[dY["
fh[Z_Yj_edWdZjeb[hWdY[_dj[hlWbH[odebZi'/.*m[h[Z[j[hc_d[Z\eh[WY^if[#
Y_[iWdZ^[_]^jYbWii$J^[Yed\_Z[dY[_dj[hlWb9?\ehj^[c[Wde\j^[Z_\\[h[dY#
[iYWdX[ki[Zje[lWbkWj[j^[Z_iYh[fWdY_[iX[jm[[d[nf[Yj[ZZ_\\[h[dY[iWdZj^[
c[Wd[ij_cWjeh"m^_b[j^[fh[Z_Yj_ed_dj[hlWbF?Wii[ii[ij^[hWd][e\[WY^i_d#
]b[ Z_\\[h[dY[ X[jm[[d j^[ fh[Z_Yj[Z li$ eXi[hl[Z ^[_]^j _dYh[c[dji \eh \kjkh[
fh[Z_Yj_edi\eh_dijWdY["WjW/+eh'#AYed\_Z[dY[b[l[b$J^[jeb[hWdY[_dj[hlWb
J?fhel_Z[ij^[b_c_jj^WjYedjW_diWif[Y_\_[Zfhefehj_ed[$]$/+e\j^[Z_ijh_#
Xkj_ede\j^[Z_\\[h[dY[im^[dj^[ceZ[b_iki[Zh[f[Wj[ZboH[odebZi'/.*$J^[
h[ikbjie\j^[Yed\_Z[dY["fh[Z_Yj_edWdZjeb[hWdY[_dj[hlWb\eh[WY^if[Y_[iWdZ
^[_]^jYbWiiWh[fh[i[dj[Z_dJWXb[/$/$<eh[nWcfb["j^[ijWj_ij_Yi\ehifhkY[_dj^[
^[_]^jYbWii§(&YcYWdX[_dj[hfh[j[ZWi\ebbemi0m_j^WfheXWX_b_joe\/+m[
YWdX[Yed\_Z[djj^WjdeX_Wi_dj^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djfh[Z_Yj_edi[n_ijiX[YWki[
j^[c[Wde\j^[Z_\\[h[dY[im_bbX[X[jm[[dÄ&$&(WdZ!&$&'c$M_j^WfheXWX_b#
_joe\/+"j^[[hhehi_dj^[\kjkh[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djfh[Z_Yj_edim_bbX[X[jm[[d
Ä&$',WdZ!&$'+cWdZ_\j^[[gkWj_ed_iki[Zh[f[Wj[Zbo/+e\Wbb[hhehi_dj^_i
^[_]^jYbWiim_bbX[X[jm[[dÄ&$'.WdZ!&$'-c$
È
!SSESSINGÈ"ROWSINGÈ)MPACTS
Ed[ e\ j^[ cW_d j^h[Wji je h[][d[hWj_ed _d Y[djhWb ;khef[ _i Z[[h ZWcW][
Zk[jeXhemi_d]$8[i_Z[i^WX_jWjik_jWX_b_jo_iik[i"Z[[hZ[di_jo_ij^[a[o\WYjeh
m^[j^[hXhemi_d]_cfWYjiWh[Yedi_Z[h[ZWiZWcW][ehdej$?dj^_ii[Yj_edm[m_bb
fhel_Z[ W i_cfb[ ]k_Z[b_d[ Y^WhWYj[h_p[Z Xo j^[ c[Wd ij[c dkcX[h f[h ^[_]^j
YbWiiWdZif[Y_[i\ehZ_\\[h[djb[l[bie\Z[[hZWcW][Wi_jcWoX[Wii[ii[ZXoj^[
dkcX[he\ZWcW][Z`kl[d_b[jh[[ij[hc_dWbb[WZ[hl[hikij^[jejWbdkcX[he\
`kl[d_b[im_j^_dW]_l[d^[_]^jYbWii$J^_iWbbemikijeYecfWh[j^[Y^Wd][_dj^[
c[Wdij[cdkcX[hXo^[_]^jYbWiiWYYehZ_d]jej^[fhefehj_ede\ZWcW][Zj[h#
c_dWbb[WZ[hi$
J^[ZWjWi[jki[ZYedi_ijie\,,".,+_dZ_l_ZkWb`kl[d_b[jh[[eXi[hlWj_edi\hec
zX\7=7kijh_Wd<[Z[hWb<eh[ij9ecfWdoWYheii7kijh_W$J^[_Z[W_ijefhel_Z[
[ij_cWj[i e\ j^[ ij[c dkcX[h h[ZkYj_ed Zk[ je Z[[h ZWcW][ WYYehZ_d] je j^[
\ebbem_d]Yh_j[h_W0_\m[adem\ehW]_l[d^[_]^jYbWiiWdZif[Y_[ij^[jejWbij[c
dkcX[hWjW]_l[df[hY[djW][e\ZWcW][Z`kl[d_b[i\hec\_[bZeXi[hlWj_edi"m[
YWdWii[iij^[c[Wd_cfWYje\Z[[hZWcW][Wi_jcWoW\\[Yjj^[[ijWXb_i^c[dje\
`kl[d_b[iXoif[Y_[i$<_]kh[/$+]_l[ij^[c[Wdh[ikbjiWYheiiWbbWlW_bWXb[ZWjWXo
^[_]^jYbWiiWdZfhefehj_ede\ZWcW][Zj[hc_dWbb[WZ[hi\ehDehmWoifhkY["Yec#
cedX[[Y^"i_bl[h\_hWdZcWfb[$J^[i[dkcX[hi]_l[j^[c[WdiXoZWcW][YbWii$
D[njm[m[h[_dj[h[ij[Z_dm^[j^[hif[Y_[ic_njkh[W\\[YjiXhemi_d]$Feii_Xb[
lWh_Wj_edmekbZik]][ijj^WjY[hjW_djh[[if[Y_[im_j^_dWc_n[Zh[][d[hWj_edcWo
X[ceh[WjjhWYj_l[\ehXhemi_d]l[hikiej^[hiWdZj^_icWoX[Z_\\[h[djWYYehZ_d]
jej^[Zec_dWdY[e\j^[if[Y_[i$
'.,
4ABLEÈÈ-EANÈOFÈTHEÈDIFFERENCESÈBETWEENÈPREDICTEDÈANDÈOBSERVEDÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈRATESÈBYÈTREEÈSPECIESÈANDÈHEIGHTÈCLASSÈ4HEÈCONFIDENCEÈINTERVALÈ#)È
A ÈGIVESÈTHEÈMEANÈOFÈTHEÈDIFFERENCESÈBETWEENÈPREDICTEDÈANDÈOBSERVEDÈ
YEARÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈTHEÈPREDICTIONÈINTERVALÈ0)ÈA ÈINDICATESÈTHEÈRANGEÈ
OFÈTHEÈDIFFERENCESÈAMONGÈTHEÈPREDICTEDÈVSÈOBSERVEDÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈANDÈTHEÈTOLERANCEÈINTERVALÈ4)ÈGÈANDÈA ÈPROVIDESÈTHEÈLIMITÈTHATÈCONTAINSÈ
AÈSPECIFIEDÈPROPORTIONÈEGÈ ÈOFÈTHEÈDISTRIBUTIONÈOFÈTHEÈDIFFERENCESÈWHENÈTHEÈMODELÈISÈUSEDÈREPEATEDLYÈ2EYNOLDSÈ È
È3IGNIFICANTÈWITHÈAÈNÈ
NUMBERÈOFÈTREESÈ#)ÈCONFIDENCEÈINTERVALÈA ÈIHOBSÈMEANÈOBSERVEDÈ
YEARÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈ0)ÈPREDICTIONSÈINTERVALÈA È$IÈMEANÈDIFFERENCEÈ4)ÈTOL
ERANCEÈINTERVALÈGÈANDÈA ÈS$ÈSTANDARDÈDEVIATION
3PRUCEÈ ÈÈ È È nÈ È È nÈTOÈÈ nÈTOÈÈ ÈTOÈ
&IRÈ ÈÈ È È È È È ÈTOÈÈ nÈTOÈÈ nÈTOÈ
È rÈÈ È .OÈSTATISTICALÈANALYSESÈPOSSIBLE
"EECHÈ ÈÈ È È È È È nÈTOÈÈ nÈTOÈÈ nÈTOÈ
&IGÈÈ3TEMÈ
NUMBERÈ. ÈRE
DUCTIONÈVER
SUSÈDEERÈDAM
AGEÈPERCENTAGEÈ
BYÈHEIGHTÈCLASSÈ
$EERÈDAMAGEÈ
ISÈEXPRESSEDÈBYÈ
THEÈRATIOÈOFÈJU
VENILEÈTREESÈ
WITHÈAÈDAMAGEDÈ
TERMINALÈLEAD
ERÈTOÈTHEÈTOTALÈ
NUMBERÈOFÈJUVE
NILES
'.. #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
È
$ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSION
J^[h[][d[hWj_edceZ[biZ[iYh_X[ZWdZlWb_ZWj[Z_dj^_iijkZo[nfb_Y_jboWi#
i[iij^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_ed"if[Y_[ic_n"Z[di_jo"`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^WdZ
cehjWb_jom_j^_dW+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ$IkY^_d\ehcWj_ed_id[[Z[Z_\deh[][d#
[hWj_ed _d\ehcWj_ed _i WlW_bWXb[ WdZ _\ \eh[ij ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi Wh[ Wffb_[Z \eh
i_bl_YkbjkhWbiY[dWh_eWdWboi[i$J^[[gkWj_edi\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[#
][d[hWj_ed"if[Y_[ic_nWdZZ[di_jom[h[Z[l[bef[Z\ehDehmWoifhkY["i_bl[h\_h"
YeccedX[[Y^WdZ\ehWbbej^[hjh[[iki_d]edboZWjW\hecj^[Kd_l[hi_joi;n#
f[h_c[djWb<eh[ij_dj^[HeiWb_[dCekdjW_di$I_dY[dejWbbfeii_Xb[i_j[YedZ_j_edi
m[h[\ekdZ_dj^_iWh[W"edboWb_c_j[ZdkcX[he\^kcki"ie_bWdZl[][jWj_edjof[i
[dj[h[Zj^[ceZ[b\ehckbWj_edii_]d_\_YWdjboA3&$&+$J^_i_i_cfehjWdjX[YWki[
_\ZWjW\hecej^[hh[]_ediWh[ki[Z"j^[i_j[lWh_WX_b_jo[$]$^kcki"ie_bWdZl[]#
[jWj_ed jof[i WdZ _ji _d\bk[dY[ ed j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed [ijWXb_i^c[dj" if[Y_[i c_n
WdZZ[di_jom_bbX[Z_\\[h[dj$D[l[hj^[b[ii"j^[][d[hWbWffheWY^Wi_j_ifh[i[dj#
[Z_dj^_iijkZo_ii_cfb["heXkijWdZYWdX[[Wi_boWZ`kij[Z\ehWdoej^[hh[][d#
[hWj_edZWjWi[j$
J^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_edm_j^_dW+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZ;g$/$''Z[#
f[dZi cW_dbo ed j^[ el[hijeho Yecf[j_j_ed WdZ j^[ bWh][ij jh[[ Xo if[Y_[i$7b#
j^ek]^j^_iceZ[bmWiYWb_XhWj[Zm_j^_dl[djehoZWjW\hecj^[Kd_l[hi_joi;n#
f[h_c[djWb<eh[ij"j^[lWb_ZWj_edh[ikbjiki_d]ZWjW\hecj^_i\eh[ijXkjWbie\hec
jmeZ_\\[h[djh[]_ediÄj^[>_hiY^bWYa[WdZj^[B_c[ijed[DWj_edWbFWhaÄik]#
][ijj^WjYedi_ij[djfh[Z_Yj_edie\j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^c[dj
YWdX[[nf[Yj[ZJWXb[/$+$J^[Z_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[dj^[dkcX[he\fbejim_j^fh[#
Z_Yj[ZWdZeXi[hl[Zh[][d[hWj_edlWh_[ZedboX[jm[[dÄ'*$'WdZ-$'JWXb[/$+
WdZdeioij[cWj_YkdZ[h#ehel[h[ij_cWj_edmWiZ[j[YjWXb[$Ceh[_cfehjWdj"j^[
f[hY[djW][e\Yehh[YjboYbWii_\_[Zfbejim_j^ehm_j^ekjh[][d[hWj_ed"Wd_dZ_YW#
j_ede\j^[hWdZec[hhehYecfed[dj_dj^[h[ikbj_d]fh[Z_Yj_edi"[n^_X_j[ZWf#
fhen_cWj[bo -& Yehh[Yjbo YbWii_\_[Z fbeji Qm_j^ eh m_j^ekj h[][d[hWj_ed Ä i[[
7bb _d JWXb[/$+S" ik]][ij_d] W h[bWj_l[ icWbb hWdZec [hheh Yecfed[dj WdZ
j^kiWijWXb[ceZ[bWffheWY^$
7d_cfehjWdjWif[Yje\ekhmeha_ijeZ[cedijhWj[j^[fheXb[ciebl_d]fe#
j[dj_Wb$?d<_]$/$,Wjof_YWbijWdZi_jkWj_edWi_jcWoX[][d[hWj[Zm_j^_dj^[jh[[
]hemj^ceZ[bCEI;I_iZ[cedijhWj[Z$
<_]kh[/$- _bbkijhWj[i ^em j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed jeeb cWo X[ ki[Z m_j^_d W jh[[
]hemj^ ceZ[b_d] [dl_hedc[dj je j[ij i_bl_YkbjkhWb cWdW][c[dj _d j^[ Kd_l[h#
i_joÉi;nf[h_c[djWb<eh[ij0\_hij"j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d[hWj_edWYYehZ_d]jej^[
Ykhh[dj el[hijeho Yecf[j_j_ed _i fh[Z_Yj[Z ki_d] ;g$/$''$ J^[d W i_bl_Ykbjkh#
WbcWdW][c[djiY[dWh_e_iWiikc[Zm^_Y^h[ZkY[iel[hijehoYecf[j_j_edWYheii
Wbbi_j[iXo)&$D[nj"m_j^j^[jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bj^[el[hijehoijWdZi_jkWj_ed
\eh j^[ jme Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj jof[i _i i_ckbWj[Z \eh '&o[Whi$ <_dWbbo" W]W_d
;g$/$''_iWffb_[Zjefh[Z_Yjj^[h[][d[hWj_edfheXWX_b_joWYYehZ_d]je'j^[
lWh_WdjdeY^Wd][_dj^[el[hijehoYecf[j_j_edWdZ(j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[][d#
[hWj_ed'&o[WhiW\j[h)&el[hijehoh[celWb<_]$/$-$
?dj^[ceZ[be\if[Y_[ifhefehj_ed;g$/$*WdZJWXb[/$,"el[hijehoYecf[#
j_j_ed"j^[bWh][ijjh[[Xoif[Y_[iXkjWbiej^[^kckijof[WdZWZkccolWh_WXb[
È $ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSION './
&IGÈÈ6ISUALIZATIONÈEXAMPLESÈOFÈTHEÈIMPLEMENTEDÈREGENERATIONÈMODULEÈINÈTHEÈTREEÈGROWTHÈ
MODELINGÈENVIRONMENTÈ-/3%3È4HEÈTHEORETICALÈFRAMEWORKÈMAYÈBEÈRECALIBRATEDÈFORÈDIFFERENTÈLO
CATIONSÈANDÈMAYÈBEÈIMPLEMENTEDÈINÈANYÈOTHERÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELINGÈENVIRONMENT
'/& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
&IGÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈREGENERATIONÈASSESSMENTÈINÈCOMBINATIONÈWITHÈTHEÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELÈ
WHICHÈWASÈUSEDÈTOÈASSESSÈTHEÈCHANGEÈINÈTHEÈOVERSTORYÈACCORDINGÈTOÈDIFFERENTÈMANAGEMENTÈAS
SUMPTIONSÈ4HEÈUPPERÈLEFTÈPLOTÈGIVESÈTHEÈESTIMATEDÈCURRENTÈPROBABILITYÈOFÈREGENERATIONÈ4HEÈUP
PERÈRIGHTÈPLOTÈWOULDÈBEÈTHEÈAVERAGEÈSITUATIONÈIFÈALLÈSTANDSÈHADÈTHEIRÈSTOCKINGÈDENSITYÈREDUCEDÈBYÈ
ÈCOMPAREDÈWITHÈTHEÈCURRENTÈSITUATIONÈ4HEÈLOWERÈLEFTÈANDÈRIGHTÈPLOTSÈGIVEÈTHEÈCHANGEÈINÈTHEÈ
PROBABILITYÈOFÈREGENERATIONÈAFTERÈÈYEARSÈACCORDINGÈTOÈVARIANTÈ ÈnÈNOÈCHANGEÈINÈDENSITYÈnÈANDÈVAR
IANTÈ ÈnÈAÈÈREDUCTIONÈINÈSTANDÈDENSITYÈnÈRESPECTIVELY
È $ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSION '/'
\ehj^[[Z][#[\\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^jm_j^_jiYecf[diWjeho[\\[Yj\ehel[hije#
hoYecf[j_j_edWh[_cfehjWdj<b[cc_d]'/,(19Wd^Wc[jWb$'//&$;l[dj^ek]^
j^[lWh_WX_b_joe\i_j[WdZl[][jWj_edjof[im_j^j^[[nY[fj_ede\^kckijof[_i
h[bWj_l[boicWbbWdZ^[dY[j^[b_a[b_^eeZ_ibemj^Wjj^[oWh[i_]d_\_YWdjA3&$&+"
j^[i[ i_j[ YedZ_j_edi Wh[ _cfehjWdj \eh j^[ Yehh[Yj fh[Z_Yj_ed e\ h[][d[hWj_ed$
J^_iYed\_hci\_dZ_d]iXo=WiY^'//+"m^_Y^h[fehjWi_]d_\_YWdj_cfWYje\Wi#
f[Yj"ibef["i_j[WdZl[][jWj_edjof[edj^[if[Y_[ic_n$
J^[lWb_ZWj_edh[ikbjiJWXb[/$-_dZ_YWj[W^_]^[hlWh_Wj_edWdZWbem[hf[h#
Y[djW][ e\ Yehh[Yjbo YbWii_\_[Z fbeji l[hiki j^[ h[][d[hWj_ed fheXWX_b_jo fh[Z_Y#
j_edi1^em[l[h"m_j^ceh[j^Wd+&Yehh[YjboYbWii_\_[Zfbejij^[ceZ[biWh[ijW#
Xb[WdZki[\kb$Edbo_\j^[dkcX[he\fbeji\ehW]_l[dif[Y_[iWdZh[]_edmWil[ho
bem[$]$X[[Y^WdZej^[hif[Y_[i\hecj^[>_hiY^bWYa[i_j[mekbZj^[hWdZec[h#
heh_dYh[Wi[JWXb[/$-$
J^[ i_cfb_\_YWj_ed e\ j^[ ^[_]^j _dYh[c[dj ]hemj^ ceZ[b >Wi[dWk[h WdZ
A_dZ[hcWdd(&&(jefh[Z_Yjj^[+#o[Wh^[_]^j]hemj^fheZkY[ZYedi_ij[djWdZ
kdX_Wi[Zh[ikbjii_dY[ded[e\j^[Yed\_Z[dY["fh[Z_Yj_edWdZjeb[hWdY[_dj[hlWbi
Xoif[Y_[iWdZ^[_]^jYbWii[i[n^_X_j[ZX_Wi[Zh[ikbjiJWXb[/$/$Edbo\ehifhkY[
_dj^[^[_]^jYbWii¨+'YcZ_Zj^[9?ik]][ijWi_]d_\_YWdjZ_\\[h[dY[$9ecfWh[Z
m_j^j^[9?ki_d]j^[eh_]_dWbceZ[bm_j^j^[Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djYecf[j_j_ed_d#
Z_Y[i=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-j^[[hhehhWd][_iib_]^jboXkjdejioij[cWj_YWb#
boZ_\\[h[dj$J^ki"j^[Y^Wd][\hecZ_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djje#_dZ[f[dZ[djYecf[j_#
j_ed_dZ_Y[iWdZj^[h[fbWY[c[dje\j^[_dj[h#WdZ_djhW#if[Y_[iYecf[j_j_ed_dZ_#
Y[i=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-Xoj^[ikce\Wbb`kl[d_b[jh[[ijWbb[hj^WdikX`[Yj
jh[[Z_Zdejb[WZjeWioij[cWj_YZ[l_Wj_ed_dj^[+#o[Wh]hemj^_dYh[c[djfh[Z_Y#
j_edi$I_c_bWh\_dZ_d]i^Wl[X[[dh[fehj[ZXo8_]_d]WdZ:eXX[hj_d'//+m^e
YecfWh[Z lWh_eki Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ_Y[i WdZ j^[_h _d\bk[dY[ ed j^[ +#o[Wh ^[_]^j
_dYh[c[dj]hemj^$J^[_hh[ikbjii^em[Zj^WjdecW`ehZ_\\[h[dY[iX[jm[[dZ_i#
jWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djWdZ#_dZ[f[dZ[dj_dZ_Y[i[n_ij$
7 cW`eh \eYki e\ ekh meha mWi j^[ _dj[]hWj_ed WdZ Wii[iic[dj e\ j^[ Yec#
f[diWjeho[\\[YjiedYecf[j_j_edZk[je[Z][#[\\[Yj[Z_dY_Z[dY[e\b_]^jWdZ_ji
_cfWYjed`kl[d_b[jh[[]hemj^$J^[_djheZkY[Zi_cfb_\_YWj_ed_dWYYekdj_d]\eh
[Z][[\\[YjiXoikcc_d]kfj^[Z_ijWdY[ijej^[ijWdZ[Z][l[hikij^[eh_]_dWbWf#
fheWY^=ebi[hWdZ>Wi[dWk[h'//-1>Wi[dWk[hWdZA_dZ[hcWdd(&&(Z_Zdej
h[ikbj_dWdoioij[cWj_YZ[l_Wj_ed\hecj^[[nf[Yj[Zfh[Z_Yj_edi$
Ekh ZWjW Ze dej _dYbkZ[ h[f[Wj[Z h[][d[hWj_ed _dl[djeh_[i$ J^ki" j^_i ijkZo
Ze[idejWZZh[iij^[j[cfehWb_iik[iikY^Wij^[gk[ij_ed^embed]_jm_bbjWa[
kdj_bWi_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djef[hWj_ed^Wib[WZjeWY[hjW_dh[][d[hWj_edh[#
ikbj$IkY^_d\ehcWj_edmekbZWbbemkijeWii[iij_c[^eh_pediWYYehZ_d]jeY[h#
jW_dcWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[i3ZodWc_YYecfed[dji$?d(&&*m[ijWhj[Zm_j^j^[
\_hijh[c[Wikh[c[dje\j^[h[][d[hWj_ed_dl[djehoWjj^[Kd_l[hi_joÉi;nf[h_c[d#
jWb<eh[ij1Wffhefh_Wj[ZWjW\ehijkZo_d]j[cfehWb[\\[Yjim_bbX[WlW_bWXb[ieed$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ 4HISÈ STUDYÈ WASÈ FUNDEDÈ BYÈ THEÈ %5È PROJECTÈ )4-È )MPLEMENTINGÈ 4REEÈ
'ROWTHÈ-ODELSÈASÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ4OOLÈnÈHTTPWWWBOKUACATITM ÈUNDERÈPROJECTÈNUM
BERÈ1,24ÈnÈ7EÈGREATLYÈAPPRECIATEÈTHEÈSUPPORTÈOFÈ*OSEFÈ'ASCHÈ(UBERTÈ3TERBAÈANDÈ
/TTOÈ%CKMàLLNERÈFORÈPROVIDINGÈDATAÈFROMÈTHEÈ5NIVERSITYSÈ%XPERIMENTALÈ&ORESTÈÈ(IRSCHLACKEÈANDÈ
'/( #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]H[][d[hWj_ed_d;l[dWdZKd[l[d#7][ZC_n[ZIf[Y_[i<eh[iji
,IMESTONEÈ .ATIONALÈ 0ARKÈ (ELPFULÈ REVIEWÈ COMMENTSÈ WEREÈ PROVIDEDÈ BYÈ $IONYSÈ (ALLENBARTERÈ
"RUCEÈ-ICHIEÈANDÈTWOÈREVIEWERS
2EFERENCES
"ELLAÈ)%È È!ÈNEWÈCOMPETITIONÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
"IGINGÈ '3È $OBBERTINÈ -È È %VALUATIONÈ OFÈ COMPETITIONÈ INDICESÈ INÈ INDIVIDUALÈ TREEÈ GROWTHÈ
MODELSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
"ITTERLICHÈ7È È2ELASKOPTECHNIKÈRATIONELLEÈ7ALDMESSUNGÈDURCHÈ3PIEGELRELASKOPÈ#ENTRALBLÈ
FÈGESÈ&ORSTWÈn
#HAZDONÈ 2,È È 3UNFLECKSÈ ANDÈ THEIRÈ IMPORTANCEÈ TOÈ FORESTÈ UNDERSTORYÈ PLANTSÈ !DVANCEÈ INÈ
ECOLOGICALÈRESEARCHÈVOLÈÈ!CADEMICÈ0RESSÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈPPÈn
#ANHAMÈ#$È0LATTÈ7*È2UNKLEÈ*2È3PIESÈ4!È7HITEÈ03È È,IGHTÈREGIMESÈBENEATHÈCLOSEDÈCANO
PIESÈANDÈTREE
FALLÈGAPSÈINÈTEMPERATEÈANDÈTROPICALÈFORESTSÈ#ANÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
#UTHBERTSONÈ +È (ALLÈ 3'È 4AYLORÈ -0È È !PPLIEDÈ ECONOMETRICÈ TECHNIQUESÈ !LLANÈ .EWÈ 9ORKÈ
ÈPP
%CKMàLLNERÈ /È +ATZENSTEINERÈ +È +OCHÈ 'È 2EIMOSERÈ &È È .ATURRAUMINVENTURÈ .ATIONALPARKÈ
+ALKALPENÈ)NVENTURSCHLàSSELÈ)NSTITUTÈFàRÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSFORSCHUNGÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODEN
KULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
%KÈ!2È-ONSERUDÈ2!È È&/2%34ÈAÈCOMPUTERÈMODELÈFORÈSIMULATINGÈTHEÈGROWTHÈANDÈREPRO
DUCTIONÈ OFÈ MIXEDÈ SPECIESÈ FORESTÈ STANDSÈ 2ESÈ 2EPÈ2È #OLLEGEÈ OFÈ !GRICULTUREÈ ANDÈ ,IFEÈ
3CIENCESÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ7ISCONSIN
-ADISONÈÈPP
&"6!È È )NSTRUKTIONENÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ &ELDARBEITÈ DERÈ «STERREICHISCHENÈ &ORSTINVENTURÈ &ORSTLICHEÈ
"UNDESVERSUCHSANSTALTÈ7IENÈÈPP
&LEMMINGÈ'È È3TRAHLUNGÈUNDÈ7INDÈANÈ"ESTANDESRËNDERNÈ!RCHÈ&ORSTWESENÈÈÈPP
'ASCHÈ*È È3TICHPROBENINVENTURÈUNDÈ.ATURVERJàNGUNGÈ)NÈ3AGLÈ7ÈED È&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈAUFÈ
DEMÈ0RàFSTANDÈ3CHRIFTENREIHEÈDESÈ)NSTITUTESÈFàRÈFORSTLICHEÈ"ETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTÈUNDÈ&ORSTWIRT
SCHAFTSPOLITIKÈVOLÈÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ7IENÈPPÈn
'OLSERÈ-È(ASENAUERÈ(È È0REDICTINGÈJUVENILEÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈGROWTHÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈ
SPECIESÈSTANDSÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
(ASENAUERÈ (È È %INÈ %INZELBAUMWACHSTUMSSIMULATORÈ FàRÈ UNGLEICHALTRIGEÈ &ICHTEN
+IEFERN
È
UNDÈ"UCHEN
&ICHTENMISCHBESTËNDEÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ3CHRIFTENREIHEÈ«STERREICHISCHEÈ'ESELLSCHAFTÈ
FàRÈ7ALDÚKOSYSTEMFORSCHUNGÈUNDÈEXPERIMENTELLEÈ"AUMFORSCHUNGÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODEN
KULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
(ASENAUERÈ(È È$IMENSIONALÈRELATIONSHIPSÈOFÈOPEN
GROWNÈTREESÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ
n
(ASENAUERÈ (È +INDERMANNÈ 'È È -ETHODSÈ FORÈ ASSESSINGÈ REGENERATIONÈ ESTABLISHMENTÈ ANDÈ
HEIGHTÈGROWTHÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈSPECIESÈSTANDSÈ*È&ORÈn
(ASENAUERÈ(È+INDERMANNÈ'È-ERKLÈ$È È:URÈ3CHËTZUNGÈDERÈ6ERJàNGUNGSSITUATIONÈINÈ-ISCH
BESTËNDENÈMITÈ(ILFEÈ.EURALERÈ.ETZEÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
(ETTÈ*-È È!ÈDYNAMICÈANALYSISÈOFÈAGEÈINÈSUGARÈMAPLEÈSEEDLINGSÈ%COLOGYÈn
(USSÈ*È È7ALDBAUÈVORÈNEUENÈ(ERAUSFORDERUNGENÈBEIÈDERÈ7ALDVERJàNGUNGÈUNDÈ*UNGBE
STANDSPFLEGEÈ&ORSTWÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
+ENNELÈ2È È$IEÈ"UCHENDURCHFORSTUNGSVERSUCHEÈINÈ"AYERNÈVONÈÈBISÈÈ0UBLÈÈ)NSTI
TUTÈFàRÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈDERÈ&ORSTLICHENÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
2EFERENCES '/)
+INDERMANNÈ'È È-ODELLIEUNGÈDESÈ7ACHSTUMSÈVONÈ-ISCHBESTËNDENÈ0H$È4HESISÈ5NIVERSI
TYÈOFÈ.ATURALÈ2ESOURCESÈANDÈ!PPLIEDÈ,IFEÈ3CIENCESÈ6IENNA
+INDERMANNÈ'È(ASENAUERÈ(È'ASCHÈ*È È!NKOMMENÈUNDÈ7ACHSTUMÈVONÈ.ATURVERJàNGUNGÈ
INÈ-ISCHBESTËNDENÈ#ENTRALBLÈ'ESÈ&ORSTWESENÈn
+OKOSKAÈ3È.EVISONÈ#È È3TATISTICALÈTABLESÈ3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ(EIDELBERGÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
+RAJICEKÈ*%È"RINKMANÈ+!È'INGRICHÈ3&È È#ROWNÈCOMPETITIONÈAÈMEASUREÈOFÈSTANDÈDENSITYÈ
&ORÈ3CIÈn
,EAKÈ7"È'RABERÈ2%È È3EEDLINGÈINPUTÈDEATHÈANDÈGROWTHÈINÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈNORTHERNÈHARD
WOODSÈ#ANÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
,EDERMANNÈ 4È È %INÈ %INWUCHSMODELLÈ AUSÈ DENÈ $ATENÈ DERÈ «STERREICHISCHENÈ 7ALDINVENTURÈ
nÈ#ENTRALBLÈFÈGESÈ&ORSTWESENÈn
-ARSCHALLÈ*È È(ILFSTAFELNÈFàRÈDIEÈ&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈ«STERRÈ!GRARVERLAGÈ7IENÈÈPP
-ITCHELLÈ+*È È$YNAMICSÈANDÈSIMULATEDÈYIELDÈOFÈ$OUGLAS
FIRÈ&ORÈ3CIÈ-ONOGRÈÈÈPP
-ONSERUDÈ2!È3TERBAÈ(È È!ÈBASALÈAREAÈINCREMENTÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈGROWINGÈINÈ
EVEN
ÈANDÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTÈSTANDSÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
-OSERÈ*7È È$YNAMICSÈOFÈANÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTÈSTANDÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
0OSCHÈ"È È*UNGWUCHS
ÈUNDÈ3CHËLMONITORINGÈ«STERRÈ&ORSTZTGÈn
0UKKALAÈ4È+OLSTRÚMÈ4È È!ÈSTOCHASTICÈSPATIALÈREGENERATIONÈMODELÈFORÈ0INUSÈSILVESTRISÈ3CANDÈ
*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
2EYNOLDSÈ-2È È%STIMATINGÈTHEÈERRORÈINÈMODELÈPREDICTIONSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
2IBBENSÈ%È3ILANDERÈ*!È*RÈ0ACALAÈ37È È3EEDLINGÈRECRUITMENTÈINÈFORESTSÈCALIBRATINGÈMODELSÈ
TOÈPREDICTÈPATTERNSÈOFÈTREEÈSEEDLINGÈDISPERSIONÈ%COLOGYÈ n
3CHWEIGERÈ*È3TERBAÈ(È È!ÈMODELÈDESCRIBINGÈNATURALÈREGENERATIONÈRECRUITMENTÈOFÈ.ORWAYÈ
SPRUCEÈ0ICEAÈABIESÈ, ÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
3HIFLEYÈ32È%KÈ!2È"URKÈ4%È È!ÈGENERALIZEDÈMETHODOLOGYÈFORÈESTIMATINGÈFORESTÈINGROWTHÈATÈ
MULTIPLEÈTHRESHOLDÈDIAMETERSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
3HUGARTÈ((È#ROWÈ22È(ETTÈ*-È È&ORESTÈSUCCESSIONÈMODELSÈAÈRATIONALEÈANDÈMETHODOLOGYÈ
FORÈMODELINGÈFORESTÈSUCCESSIONÈOVERÈLARGEÈREGIONSÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
3OLOMONÈ$3È(ERMANÈ$!È,EAKÈ%"È È&)"%2ÈÈANÈECOLOGICALÈGROWTHÈMODELÈFORÈNORTHEAS
TERNÈFORESTÈTYPESÈ'42È.%
È53$!È&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈ/GDENÈ5TAHÈÈPP
7ILDTÈ2È È/PERATIONALITËTÈEINESÈ6ERJàNGUNGSAUFNAHMEVERFAHRENSÈ$IPLÈ!RBEITÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ
FàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ7IENÈÈPP
#(!04%2È '/+
%VALUATINGÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ2EGIMESÈANDÈ
4HEIRÈ)MPACTÈONÈ#OMMERCIALÈ4IMBERÈ
3UPPLYÈ5SINGÈANÈ)NDIVIDUAL
4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ
-ODELÈANDÈ3CENARIOÈ!NALYSIS
J^ecWiB[Z[hcWdd'">kX[hjIj[hXW(
!BSTRACTÈ)NÈTHISÈCHAPTERÈWEÈDEMONSTRATEÈDIFFERENTÈMANAGEMENTÈREGIMESÈANDÈTHEIRÈIMPACTÈ
ONÈ COMMERCIALÈ TIMBERÈ SUPPLYÈ USINGÈ THEÈ INDIVIDUAL
TREEÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORÈ 0ROGN!USÈ FORÈ
7INDOWSÈÈ7EÈTHEREBYÈADDRESSÈTWOÈFREQUENTLYÈDISCUSSEDÈSCENARIOSÈ ÈTHEÈCONVERSIONÈOFÈ
EVEN
AGEDÈPUREÈSPECIESÈSTANDSÈINTOÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈMIXEDÈSPECIESÈSTANDSÈANDÈ ÈHOWÈTOÈDEALÈ
WITHÈAÈFORESTÈSTANDÈWHOSEÈTREESÈAREÈDAMAGEDÈBYÈBARKÈPEELINGÈ&ORÈBOTHÈSCENARIOSÈWEÈSHOWÈ
HOWÈGROWTHÈANDÈYIELDÈTIMBERÈSUPPLYÈANDÈCOMMERCIALÈASSORTMENTSÈCHANGEÈUNDERÈDIFFERENTÈ
MANAGEMENTÈREGIMESÈ)NÈADDITIONÈWEÈPROVIDEÈANÈECONOMICÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈTHESEÈMANAGE
MENTÈREGIMESÈ4HEÈRESULTSÈOFÈOURÈDEMONSTRATIONÈRUNSÈINDICATEÈTHATÈAÈTHOROUGHLYÈDEVELOPEDÈ
INDIVIDUAL
TREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈISÈANÈEXCELLENTÈTOOLÈFORÈSCENARIOÈANALYSIS
È
)NTRODUCTION
J^[cWdW][c[dje\\eh[iji^WiWbed]jhWZ_j_ed_d;khef[Wd\eh[ijhoH_Y^j[h
'//,$>em[l[h"j^[h[Wiedim^o\eh[ijiWh[cWdW][Z^Wl[Yb[WhboY^Wd][Z$M^_b[
_dj^[fWij\eh[ijcWdW][c[djmWicW_dbo\eYki[Zedj_cX[hfheZkYj_ed"h[Y[dj
cWdW][c[dj ijhWj[]_[i [cf^Wi_i[ j^[ ckbj_fb[#ki[ YedY[fj e\ \eh[iji" m^_Y^ _i
Y^WhWYj[h_i[ZXoj_cX[hfheZkYj_edWdZXoj^[Yedi[hlWj_ede\if[Y_[iWdZm_bZ#
b_\[^WX_jWj$<eh[ijij^WjWh[cWdW][ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[ckbj_fb[#ki[YedY[fjWh[h[#
d[mWXb[h[iekhY[ifheZkY_d][ii[dj_WbhWmcWj[h_Wb\ehi[l[hWbfkhfei[i$J^[oWh[
Wbieh_Y^_dm_bZb_\[^WX_jWjWdZif[Y_[iZ_l[hi_joWdZcWoj^[h[\eh[Yedjh_Xkj[je
_dYh[Wi[Z[Yeioij[cijWX_b_joIZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)$
<ehcWdo\eh[ijcWdW][hikd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZiWh[Yedi_Z[h[Z
jeYecfboX[jj[hm_j^j^[h[gk_h[c[djiWdZh[ijh_Yj_edie\j^[ckbj_fb[#ki[cWd#
W][c[djYedY[fj$>[dY["_j_idejikhfh_i_d]j^Wjj^[dWj_edWb\eh[ij_dl[djeh_[ie\
iec[Y[djhWb;khef[WdYekdjh_[ii^emWd_dYh[Wi_d]fhefehj_ede\kd[l[d#W][Z
c_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZiIcWbjiY^_dia_'//&1IY^_[b[hWdZIY^WZWk[h'//)1Cedi[h#
' [#cW_b0j^ecWi$b[Z[hcWdd6X\m$]l$Wj:[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ij=hemj^WdZI_bl_Ykbjkh["<[Z[h#
WbH[i[WhY^WdZJhW_d_d]9[djh[\eh<eh[iji"DWjkhWb>WpWhZiWdZBWdZiYWf[8<M"I[Ya[dZ#
eh\\#=kZ[dj#M[]."'')'L_[ddW"7kijh_W
( :[fWhjc[dje\<eh[ijWdZIe_bIY_[dY[i"?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^"8EAKKd_l[hi_#
joe\DWjkhWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW"F[j[h@ehZWdIjhW[.("''/&L_[d#
dW"7kijh_W
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
'/, #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[i
kZWdZIj[hXW'//,"_dZ_YWj_d]j^Wj\eh[ijcWdW][hiWdZ\eh[ijemd[hiWh[m_bb_d]
jeYedl[hj[l[d#W][Zfkh[if[Y_[iijWdZi_djekd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi$
J^_iWbieikffehjij^[h[ikbjie\IW]b[jWb$(&&&"m^eh[fehj[Zj^Wjceh[j^Wd
.&e\_dj[hl_[m[Z\eh[ijcWdW][hi_dj[dZje_dYh[Wi[ehWjb[Wijjeh[jW_dj^[fhe#
fehj_ede\kd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi_dj^[_h\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[i$>em[l#
[h"IW]b[jWb$(&&&\khj^[hh[fehj[Zj^WjWbbe\j^[_dj[hl_[m[Z\eh[ijcWdW][hi
h[\[hh[Zjefhe\_jWij^[XWi_Y\eh[ijcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l["_dZ_YWj_d]j^WjYec#
c[hY_Wbj_cX[hikffbo_iij_bbj^[cW`eh_dY[dj_l[_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$J^_i_i
[if[Y_Wbbojhk[_\j_cX[hfheZkYj_ed_ij^[cW_diekhY[e\j^[\eh[ijemd[hÉi_d#
Yec[$>[dY["cWdo\eh[ijemd[hiWdZ\eh[ijcWdW][hiWh[edbom_bb_d]jeYedl[hj
[l[d#W][Z fkh[ if[Y_[i ijWdZi _dje kd[l[d#W][Z c_n[Z if[Y_[i ijWdZi _\ W iki#
jW_dWXb[_dYec[_i]kWhWdj[[ZZkh_d]WdZW\j[hj^[Yedl[hi_edf[h_eZ$<khj^[h#
ceh["Y^Wd]_d]j^[\eh[ijcWdW][c[djh[]_c[W\\[Yjidejedboj^[\_dWdY_Wb_i#
ik[ie\_dZ_l_ZkWb\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[iXkjWbiej^[j_cX[h_dZkijho_\j^[Y^Wd][_d
j^[cWdW][c[djijhWj[]oeYYkhiedWbWh][h[]_edWbiYWb[$J^[h[\eh["_dY^Wd]#
_d]j^[cWdW][c[djh[]_c["_j_iki[\kbjefh[Z_Yj_ji_cfWYjedj_cX[hfheZkY#
j_edWdZh[l[dk[i$<hecWd[Yedec_Yfe_dje\l_[m"m[Wh[\WY[Zm_j^j^[\ebbem#
_d]gk[ij_edi0
'$ >emZe[i]hemj^WdZo_[bZY^Wd][kdZ[hZ_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djh[]_c[i5
($ :e[ij^[Wcekdje\j_cX[hikffboY^Wd][5?\o[i"jem^Wj[nj[dj5
)$ >emZeYecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[djiY^Wd][kdZ[hZ_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djh[]_c[i5
?d j^_i Y^Wfj[h m[ Z[cedijhWj[ Z_\\[h[dj ^Whl[ij_d] iY[dWh_ei WdZ j^[_h _c#
fWYjedYecc[hY_Wbj_cX[hikffbo"j^[h[XoWZZh[ii_d]jmeiY[dWh_eij^WjWh[e\#
j[d Z_iYkii[Z Wced] \eh[ij fhWYj_j_ed[hi0 ' j^[ Yedl[hi_ed e\ [l[d#W][Z fkh[
if[Y_[iijWdZi_djekd[l[d#W][Zc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZiWdZ(^emjeZ[Wbm_j^W
\eh[ijijWdZm^ei[jh[[iWh[ZWcW][ZXoXWhaf[[b_d]$8oc[Wdie\j^[i[iY[dWh#
_ei9EDL;HI?ED#:[ceWdZF;;B?D=#:[ce_j_ii^emd^emWd_dZ_l_ZkWb#
jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehYWdX[ki[Z\ehZ[Y_i_edikffehj_dWdim[h_d]gk[ij_edi
j^WjWh[h[b[lWdjje\eh[ijcWdW][hiWdZ\eh[ijemd[hi$
È
4HEÈ)NDIVIDUAL
4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATOR
J^[YhkY_Wbfe_djWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\[WY^iY[dWh_eWdWboi_i_ij^[i[b[Yj_ede\
j^[Wffhefh_Wj[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$7bbe\j^[[n_ij_d]i_ckbWjehi^Wl[iec[fWhj_Y#
kbWhc[h_ji"cWa_d]j^[cceh[ehb[iiik_jWXb[\ehWif[Y_\_YWffb_YWj_ed$>[dY["
_dj^_ih[]WhZ"if[Y_WbYWh[_iWffhefh_Wj[$?dehZ[hje[lWbkWj[Z_\\[h[djcWdW][#
c[djh[]_c[im_j^h[]WhZje[Yedec_YWbWif[Yji"Wd_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_c#
kbWjeh_iWl[hoki[\kbjeeb_\j^[\ebbem_d]YedZ_j_ediWh[c[j0'_jckijfhel_Z[
j^[feii_X_b_jojei_ckbWj[Z_\\[h[djijWdZjh[Wjc[djWdZ\eh[ijcWdW][c[djh[#
]_c[i"(j^[ekjfkjckijX[_dj[hcie\Yecc[hY_WbWiiehjc[dji"if[Y_\_YWbbo_d
lebkc[f[hi_p[WdZgkWb_joYbWiiWdZ)j^[i_ckbWjehckij_dYbkZ[ceZ[bije
fh[Z_Yjij[cWdZmeeZgkWb_joe\ijWdZ_d]jh[[i_dehZ[hjeh[\b[Yjj^[_d\bk[dY[
e\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djh[]_c[iedj^[be]gkWb_joZ_ijh_Xkj_ed$
È -ODELÈ#ALIBRATION '/-
?dekhZ[cedijhWj_edm[Z[Y_Z[Zjeki[j^[_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh
Fhe]d7ki\ehM_dZemi($($J^[ceZ[bfh[Z_YjiXWiWbWh[WWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj
Cedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW'//,1IY^_[b[h'//-1>Wi[dWk[h(&&&"cehjWb_joCedi[h#
kZWdZIj[hXW'///WdZ_d]hemj^B[Z[hcWdd(&&(W$?jWbiefh[Z_Yjiij[cZWc#
W][YWki[ZXo^Whl[ij_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]ef[hWj_edi"XWhaf[[b_d]Xoh[ZZ[[h9[h#
lki[bWf^kiB$"heYa\Wbb_dij[[fj[hhW_dWdZWjh[[ÉifheXWX_b_joe\X[bed]_d]je
Wif[Y_\_Ybe]gkWb_joYbWiiIj[hXW[jWb$(&&)$Ceh[el[h"_j^WiWiiehjc[djjWXb[i
Ij[hXW [j Wb$ '/.,1 ;Yacbbd[h WdZ Ij[hXW (&&( WdZ j^[ d[[Z[Z j^_dd_d] WdZ
^Whl[ij_d]Wb]eh_j^ciIZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)$J^ki"j^[ceZ[b\kb#
boYecfb_[im_j^j^[ceZ[bYWfWX_b_j_[ih[gk_h[Z\ehWYecfh[^[di_l[[Yedec_Y
[lWbkWj_edÄkikWbboj^[cW_d_iik[_dj^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]fheY[iie\\eh[ijcWd#
W][hiWdZ\eh[ijemd[hi$
8[YWki[ Fhe]d7ki \ehM_dZemi($( _i W Z_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[dj ]hemj^ i_ck#
bWjeh j^[ ceZ[b YWd X[ i[j kf je WYY[fj [_j^[h Yedl[dj_edWb _dl[djehoZWjWQ[$]$
ZWjW \hec lWh_WXb[ hWZ_ki iWcfb[ fbeji 8_jj[hb_Y^ '/*. eh \_n[Z hWZ_ki iWcfb[
fbejiS"ehZWjW\hech[i[WhY^fbejiWdZ[dj_h[ijWdZi$:k[jeWc[j^eZ_djheZkY[Z
XoB[Z[hcWddWdZ;Yacbbd[h(&&*"j^[ceZ[bYWdWbiefhe`[YjicWbbiWcfb[
fbejiZkh_d]bed]#j[hci_ckbWj_edi$J^[WX_b_jojei[jkfj^[i_ckbWjehed_dl[d#
jehoZWjW_ifWhj_YkbWhbo_cfehjWdjX[YWki[m[mWdj[ZjeZ[cedijhWj[j^[Yedl[h#
i_edijhWj[]odejedbo\ehWfWhj_YkbWhijWdZ"XkjWbieWjj^[b[l[be\W\eh[ijcWd#
W][c[djZ_ijh_Yj"j^kiYel[h_d]i[l[hWb^kdZh[Zie\^[YjWh[i$<ehikY^WbWh][Wh#
[W j^[ edbo mWo je eXjW_d _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ZWjW [\\_Y_[djbo _i j^[ Wffb_YWj_ed e\ W
c[j^eZe\fbejiWcfb_d]"j^kih[gk_h_d]j^_iif[Y_\_Yfhef[hjoe\j^[_dZ_l_ZkWb#
jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehFhe]d7ki\ehM_dZemi($($
È
-ODELÈ#ALIBRATION
M^[dWffbo_d]Wd_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehjeWif[Y_\_Yh[]_ed"_j_i
feii_Xb[j^Wjj^[h[Wb]hemj^YedZ_j_edih[]WhZ_d]i_j[gkWb_joWh[dejm[bbh[fh[#
i[dj[ZXoj^[i_j[lWh_WXb[i_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[]hemj^ceZ[b$>[dY["m^[d[l[hfei#
i_Xb[" Wd _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh i^ekbZ X[ YWb_XhWj[Z X[\eh[ iY[dWh#
_eWdWboi[iWh[f[h\ehc[Z$>em[l[h"j^_ih[gk_h[ih[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edie\_dZ_#
l_ZkWb jh[[i" cWZ[ WlW_bWXb[" \eh [nWcfb[" Xo W Yedj_dkeki \eh[ij _dl[djeho$ Ki#
_d]j^[i[h[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_edim[YWdYWbYkbWj[j^[XWiWbWh[W_dYh[c[dj87?
e\j^ei[jh[[ih[cW_d_d]_dj^[ijWdZ$M[Wbieademm^_Y^jh[[im[h[h[cel[Z
\hecj^[ijWdZWdZm^_Y^jh[[iZ_[ZZkh_d]j^[eXi[hlWj_edf[h_eZ$8ofhel_Z_d]
Wd_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehm_j^j^_i_d\ehcWj_ed"_$[$m^_Y^jh[[^Wije
X[h[cel[ZWjm^Wjj_c["_j_ifeii_Xb[je_c_jWj[j^[]hemj^YedZ_j_edim_j^h[#
]WhZjeYecf[j_j_ed$J^[fh[Z_Yj[Z87?e\j^[h[cW_d_d]jh[[iYWdj^[dX[Yec#
fWh[Zm_j^j^[eXi[hl[Z87?eXjW_d[Z\hecj^[h[f[Wj[ZeXi[hlWj_ede\j^[Yed#
j_dkeki\eh[ij_dl[djeho$<eh[WY^jh[[if[Y_[iaj^[c[WdhWj_eCBFaYWdX[YWb#
YkbWj[ZWi\ebbemi0
'/. #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[i
'D87?eXi[hl[Z_
3
CBFa3ÄÄÄÄ ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
D 87?fh[Z_Yj[Z_
_3'
m^[h[D_ij^[dkcX[he\iWcfb[jh[[i\ehif[Y_[ia$
?dj^[Yekhi[e\Wi_ckbWj_edhkdj^[fh[Z_Yj[Z87?e\[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[m_bb
j^[dX[ckbj_fb_[ZXoj^[if[Y_\_Yckbj_fb_[hCBFaWjj^[[dZe\[WY^+#o[Whfhe#
`[Yj_edYoYb[$8[YWki[j^[87?ikX#ceZ[b_dFhe]d7ki\ehM_dZemi($(_iWbe]#
b_d[Whckbj_fb[h[]h[ii_edceZ[b"j^_iWffheWY^WcekdjijeWdWZ`kijc[dje\j^[
_dj[hY[fje\j^[h[if[Yj_l[if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y]hemj^\kdYj_ed$
È
$EFININGÈ3TANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ/BJECTIVESÈ
ANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ2EGIMES
J^[ ijWdZ cWdW][c[dj eX`[Yj_l[ Z[iYh_X[i W ijWdZ m_j^ h[]WhZ je if[Y_[i
Yecfei_j_ed WdZ ijWdZ ijhkYjkh[ [$]$ Z_Wc[j[h Z_ijh_Xkj_ed Wj W if[Y_\_Y fe_dj
_dj_c["m^_Y^YWdX["\eh[nWcfb["j^[[dZe\j^[hejWj_edf[h_eZehj^[[dZe\
Wif[Y_Wbjh[Wjc[djf^Wi[$J^_il[ho][d[hWbZ[\_d_j_ede\j^[ijWdZcWdW][c[dj
eX`[Yj_l[YWdWbieX[[nj[dZ[ZXoiec[Z[i_h[ZijWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yiehjh[[Wj#
jh_Xkj[i [$]$ W if[Y_\_Y lebkc[ f[h ^[YjWh[" W jeb[hWXb[ fhefehj_ed e\ ZWcW][Z
jh[[i"WdZYWdWbieX[\ehckbWj[Z\ehWbWh][hWh[W"\eh[nWcfb["WdWdo#W][ZYed#
j_dkekiYel[h\eh[ijÆFb[dj[hmWbZÇ$>em[l[h"h[\[hh_d]jecWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[
hWj^[hj^WdjeijWdZcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[cWa[iceh[i[di[_dj^_iYWi[X[YWki[
j^[kikWbZ[\_d_j_ede\WijWdZ"m^_Y^_iXWi[Zedj^[l[][jWj_ed"_idejWffhefh_#
Wj[_dWdWdo#W][ZYedj_dkekiYel[h\eh[ij$7Yb[WhboZ[\_d[ZijWdZcWdW][c[dj
eX`[Yj_l[_i_cfehjWdj\ehjmeh[Wiedi0'_j_iYbei[boh[bWj[Zjej^[cWdW][c[dj
h[]_c[j^Wjed_jiemdfWhjZ[j[hc_d[ij^[Wffhefh_Wj[j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]
Wb]eh_j^cijeX[Wffb_[ZWdZ(_j\WY_b_jWj[ij^[[lWbkWj_ede\j^[Z_\\[h[djcWd#
W][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$
È
%VALUATIONÈOFÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ!LTERNATIVES
;lWbkWj_d] Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i _i ed[ e\ j^[ ceij _cfehjWdj
fheY[Zkh[i_diY[dWh_eWdWboi[i$7jj^_iij[f_jckijX[Z[j[hc_d[Zm^[j^[hj^[
Z[\_d[Z cWdW][c[dj eX`[Yj_l[ mWi WY^_[l[Z kdZ[h W if[Y_\_Y cWdW][c[dj h[#
]_c[$If[Y_\_YWbbo"j^[h[ikbjie\W]_l[diY[dWh_eckijX[Y^[Ya[Z_\j^[o\kb\_bWbb
j^[Yh_j[h_Wj^Wjm[h[Z[\_d[Z_dj^[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[$
D[l[hj^[b[ii"ikY^WdWboi[iWh[dejik\\_Y_[dj\ehWd[Yedec_Y[lWbkWj_ed$M[
Wbie ^Wl[ je Yedi_Z[h j^Wj WZZ_j_edWb Yeiji cWo Wh_i[ m^[d m[ \ebbem W if[Y_\_Y
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[$?\j^_i_ij^[YWi["j^[dm[^Wl[jeYedi_Z[hj^[i[WZZ_j_edWb
YeijiWiiec[a_dZe\_dl[ijc[dj$>[dY["m[ckijYecfWh[j^[Yeijie\j^_i_dl[ij#
c[djm_j^j^[WZZ[ZlWbk[]W_d[ZWjj^Wjj_c[m^[dj^[Z[Y_i_ededj^_i_dl[ij#
È %VALUATIONÈOFÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ!LTERNATIVES '//
c[dj^WijeX[cWZ[$7YYehZ_d]jeIY^kbj[WdZ8ked]_ehde'//."j^[d[jfh[i[dj
lWbk[DFL_iWdWffhefh_Wj[[Yedec_YYh_j[h_ed\ehj^[YecfWh_iede\Z_\\[h[dj
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[i$J^[DFL_ij^[lWbk[e\^Whl[ijiel[hWbed]j_c[^eh_ped"
d[je\j^[YeijiWdZZ_iYekdj[Zjej^[fh[i[dj$<hecWd[Yedec_Yf[hif[Yj_l[j^[
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[m_j^j^[bWh][ijfei_j_l[DFLi^ekbZX[i[b[Yj[Z0
9
9C_
3
DFL3 ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
'!f%'&&JF_
_3'
m^[h[0
9 j^[dkcX[he\Ykjj_d]i1
9C_ h[l[dk[id[je\YeijiYedjh_Xkj_edcWh]_de\j^[_j^Ykjj_d]1
JF_ j^[j_c[f[h_eZ\hecj^[fh[i[djjej^[_j^Ykjj_d]_do[Whi1
f j^[_dj[h[ijhWj[f[ho[Wh_d$
?d ehZ[h je YWbYkbWj[ j^[ Yedjh_Xkj_ed cWh]_d 9C3h[l[dk[i c_dki Yeiji
j_cX[hfh_Y[im_j^h[]WhZjei_p[WdZgkWb_joYbWii[ihWj^[hj^WdWl[hW][fh_Y[iWh[
d[[Z[Z$J^_i_i\ehj^[\ebbem_d]h[Wied0_\j^[h[_iedboWm[Wa_cfWYjedYec#
c[hY_Wbj_cX[hWiiehjc[dj"j^_i_cfWYjYWd^WhZboX[Z[j[Yj[Z_\Wl[hW][fh_Y[i
Wh[ki[Z$<ehekhZ[cedijhWj_edim[ki[Zj^[j_cX[hfh_Y[i]_l[d_dJWXb['&$'$
>em[l[h"Zk[jej^[_hicWbbfhefehj_ed"m[ki[Zj^[fh_Y[ie\DehmWoifhkY[Wbie
\ehm^_j[\_hWdZIYejif_d[$<ehj^[iWc[h[Wied"m[Wffb_[Zj^[fh_Y[ie\X[[Y^
jeWbbej^[hXheWZb[Wl[Zif[Y_[i$
>em[l[h"dejedboj_cX[hfh_Y[iXkjWbiej^[Yeijie\\[bb_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]Wh[
h[b[lWdj\ehj^[YWbYkbWj_ede\9C$Ki_d]j^[ceZ[bie\:Wnd[h[jWb$'///WdZ
Ykhh[djmW][ie\\eh[ijho[cfbeo[[i"m[Z[l[bef[ZWi_cfb[\kdYj_ed\eh[ij_cWj#
_d]j^[Yeijie\\[bb_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]Z[f[dZ[djedj^[gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[h
e\j^[^Whl[ij[Zjh[[i<_]$'&$'$
7bj^ek]^m[ademj^WjXej^j_cX[hfh_Y[iWdZYeijie\\[bb_d]WdZia_ZZ_d]
Y^Wd][ el[h j_c[" j^[o m[h[ ^[bZ YedijWdj Wi j^_i mWi Zed[ _d i_c_bWh WdWboi[i
[$]$IY^kbj[WdZ8ked]_ehde'//.$Ki_d]YedijWdjj_cX[hfh_Y[i_icW_dboZk[
je j^[ \WYj j^Wj fh_Y[i YWddej [Wi_bo X[ fh[Z_Yj[Z X[YWki[ e\ Y^Wd]_d] cWha[ji
em_d] je i[l[hWb h[Wiedi" \eh [nWcfb[" bWh][#iYWb[ dWjkhWb Z_ijkhXWdY[i ikY^ Wi
m_dZj^hem"idemXh[WaW][ehXWhaX[[jb[WjjWYai$
&IGÈÈ#OSTSÈOFÈHARVESTINGÈFELLINGÈ
ANDÈSKIDDING ÈDEPENDINGÈONÈTHEÈQUAD
RATICÈMEANÈDIAMETERÈOFÈTHEÈHARVESTEDÈ
TREES
(&& #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[i
4ABLEÈÈ4IMBERÈPRICESÈ%52ÈMn ÈUSEDÈINÈTHEÈECONOMICÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈTHEÈDIFFERENTÈMANAGE
MENTÈREGIMESÈ!ÈBESTÈQUALITYÈ"ÈMEDIUMÈQUALITYÈ#ÈWORSTÈQUALITY
.ORWAYÈ
SPRUCEÈ !È È È È È È È È È
"EECHÈ !È È È È È È È È È
È "È È È È È È È È È
-APLEÈ !È È È È È È È È È
È "È È È È È È È È È
È
#/.6%23)/.
$EMO
È
$ATA
?dfkjZWjW\ehj^_iZ[ce[nWcfb[YWc[\hecj^[Yedj_dkeki\eh[ij_dl[dje#
ho e\ j^[ \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj Z_ijh_Yj Iedd[dmWbZ FhcedijhWj[di[h cedWij[ho
IY^b]b$J^[ZWjWi[jmWiYecfh_i[Ze\'+/f[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbejim_j^'"*+*
h[f[Wj[Zbo eXi[hl[Z iWcfb[ jh[[i" m^_Y^ m[h[ h[YehZ[Z Xo lWh_WXb[ hWZ_ki fbej
iWcfb_d]8_jj[hb_Y^'/*.ki_d]WXWiWbWh[W\WYjehe\*c(^WÄ'$J^[87?ceZ[b
e\j^[_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehFhe]d7ki\ehM_dZemi($(mWiYWb_XhWj[Z
jej^[h[]_edWb]hemj^YedZ_j_ediXoYWbYkbWj_d]if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Yckbj_fb_[hiJW#
Xb['&$($?di[jj_d]kfj^[i_ckbWjehedj^[_d_j_WbZWjW_d'/.."[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWb
È #/.6%23)/.
$EMO (&'
iWcfb[fbejmWii_ckbWj[Z\ehWf[h_eZe\'(&o[Whi"Wffbo_d]jmeZ_\\[h[djcWd#
W][c[djh[]_c[i$<ehj^[iWa[e\[lWbkWj_edWdZ_dj[hfh[jWj_ed"j^[h[ikbjim[h[
W]]h[]Wj[Zjej^[b[l[be\j^[[dj_h[\eh[ijcWdW][c[djZ_ijh_Yj$
È
3TANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ/BJECTIVE
7bbijWdZie\j^[\eh[ijcWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjIedd[dmWbZi^ekbZX[Yedl[hj[Z
\hec[l[d#W][Z_djekd[l[d#W][Z\eh[ijijWdZiW_c_d]\ehWd[]Wj_l[[nfed[dj_Wb
Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ed"j^[[gk_b_Xh_kcijWj[e\WdWdo#W][ZYedj_dkekiYel[h\eh#
[ijÆFb[dj[hmWbZÇ$J^[lebkc[i^ekbZX[)+&Ä*&&c)^WÄ'WdZj^[jh[[dkcX[h
+&&Ä,&&^WÄ'$7if[Y_\_Yif[Y_[iYecfei_j_ed_idejZ[i_h[Z$
È
-ANAGEMENTÈ2EGIMES
?dj^_iZ[ce[nWcfb[m[j[ij[ZjmeZ_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djh[]_c[i\ehj^[_h
WX_b_jojeWY^_[l[j^[Z[\_d[ZcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[$J^[h[]kbWh^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj#
[]o_dj^[cWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjIedd[dmWbZ_ij^[Z_Wc[j[h#b_c_jYkjj_d]ioij[c
WYYehZ_d] je H[_d_d][h (&&&$ J^_i ^Whl[ij_d] ijhWj[]o _i Y^WhWYj[h_i[Z Wi \eb#
bemi0_dijWdZij^WjWh[ebZ[hj^Wd'&&o[WhiWbbjh[[iWXel[*+Yc_dXh[Wij^[_]^j
Z_Wc[j[h :8> i^ekbZ X[ Ykj" m^_b[ ijWdZi oekd][h j^Wd '&&o[Whi i^ekbZ X[
j^_dd[Z\hecWXel[$8[YWki[Z_Wc[j[h#b_c_jYkjj_d]_iYedi_Z[h[ZjeX[WijhWj#
[]ojeYedl[hj[l[d#W][Z_djekd[l[d#W][ZijWdZi"_jmWieXl_ekijej[ijm^[j^#
[hj^[Z[\_d[ZcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[YWdX[WY^_[l[Z$7bj^ek]^j^[Z[\_d_j_ede\
j^_i^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]o_igk_j[Yb[Wh"_jYWdX[feii_Xb[j^Wjj^[WYjkWb^Whl[ij_d]
(&( #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[i
ijhWj[]oZe[idej\kbboYed\ehcjej^[h[]kbWhed[$J^[h[\eh[" m[ki[Zj^[^Wh#
l[ij_d]Wb]eh_j^cZ[l[bef[ZXoB[Z[hcWdd(&&(X$J^_iWb]eh_j^cmWiWbieZ[#
h_l[Z\hecj^[Yedj_dkeki\eh[ij_dl[djehoe\j^[cWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjIedd[d#
mWbZ"WdZYb[WhboZ[f_Yj[Zj^[h[Y[djboWffb_[Z^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]o"if[Y_\_YWbboj^[
jh[[i[b[Yj_edfh[\[h[dY[i\eh^Whl[ij_d]$
J^[ i[YedZ Wbj[hdWj_l[ e\ j^[ cWdW][c[dj h[]_c[ _d j^[ 9EDL;HI?ED#
:[ce_ij^[Wffb_YWj_ede\WijWdZWhZ[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[$?dWdWdo#W][ZYedj_d#
kekiYel[h\eh[ijÆFb[dj[hmWbZÇj^_i[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[_ih[fh[i[dj[ZXoWd[]#
Wj_l[[nfed[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_Xkj_ed$J^hek]^YecfWh_d]j^[WYjkWbZ_Wc[j[h
Z_ijh_Xkj_edm_j^j^[ijWdZWhZ[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl["_jYWdX[i[[d\hecm^_Y^Z_#
Wc[j[hYbWii[ijh[[i^Wl[jeX[h[cel[ZIZ[hX[h]^WdZB[Z[hcWdd(&&)$?d
ekhZ[cedijhWj_ed"j^[ijWdZWhZ[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[mWiYWbYkbWj[ZWYYehZ_d]je
9WdY_deWdZ=WZem(&&(XWi[ZedWg#lWbk[e\'$)"Wh[i_ZkWbij[cdkcX[he\
*+jh[[i^WÄ' _d j^[ bWh][ij :8> YbWii e\ */Yc WdZ W YbWii m_Zj^ e\ .Yc$ J^_i
[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[mWiWffb_[Z_dijWdZiebZ[hj^Wd'&&o[Whi$?dijWdZioekd][h
j^Wd'&&o[Whi"j^[ibef[e\j^[Wffb_[Zij[cdkcX[hÄZ_Wc[j[hYkhl[mWiij[[f[h"
XkjmWiZ[Yh[Wi[ZWb]eh_j^c_YWbboZkh_d]j^[i_ckbWj_edkdj_bj^[ijWdZh[WY^[Z
&IGÈÈ3ECONDÈALTERNATIVEÈOFÈTHEÈ
MANAGEMENTÈREGIMEÈINÈTHEÈ#/.6%2
3)/.
$EMOÈFORÈAÈFORESTÈSTANDÈATÈAGEÈ
ÈYEARSÈ4HINÈLINESÈREPRESENTÈEQUILIBRI
UMÈCURVESÈATÈAGEÈÈÈÈETCÈYEARS
&IGÈÈ$IAMETERÈDISTRIBUTIONSÈATÈTHEÈENDÈOFÈAÈ
YEARÈSIMULATIONÈPERIODÈFORÈTHEÈENTIREÈMAN
AGEMENTÈDISTRICTÈ3ONNENWALDÈ#ONTINUATIONÈOFÈTHEÈRECENTÈMANAGEMENTÈREGIMEÈLEFT ÈANDÈAP
PLYINGÈAÈSTANDARDÈEQUILIBRIUMÈCURVEÈRIGHT È4HICKÈGREYÈLINEÈINDICATESÈTHEÈSTANDARDÈEQUILIBRIUMÈ
CURVEÈBOLDÈBLACKÈLINEÈDEPICTSÈTHEÈACTUALÈ$"(ÈDISTRIBUTIONÈ4HINÈLINESÈREPRESENTÈ$"(ÈDISTRIBUTIONSÈ
INÈTHEÈSTRATAÈOFÈTHEÈFORMERÈAGEÈCLASSES
È #/.6%23)/.
$EMO (&)
j^[W][e\'&&o[Whi$7jj^_iW][j^[ibef[mWi[gkWbjej^[ibef[e\j^[[gk_b_X#
h_kcYkhl[WdZj^[h[\eh[a[fjYedijWdjkdj_bj^[[dZe\j^[i_ckbWj_edhkd$J^[
YedY[fje\j^_i^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]o_ifh[i[dj[Z_d<_]$'&$("m^[h[_j_iWffb_[Zje
W'&#o[Wh#ebZijWdZ$
È
%VALUATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ#/.6%23)/.
$EMO
7j j^[ [dZ e\ jme '(&#o[Wh i_ckbWj_ed hkdi j^[ [lWbkWj_ed e\ j^[ Z_\\[h[dj
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[iWffb_[Z_dj^[9EDL;HI?ED#:[cemWiXWi[Zedj^[Yec#
fWh_iede\j^[\_dWb:8>Z_ijh_Xkj_edi"j^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[]hem_d]ijeYa"WdZ
j^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[WddkWb_dYh[c[djWdZh[celWbi$J^[h[ikbjie\j^[i_ckbW#
j_edhkdifh[i[dj[Z_d<_]i$'&$)Ä'&$,_dZ_YWj[j^Wjj^[Z[i_h[Z:8>Z_ijh_Xkj_ed
e\WdWdo#W][Z\eh[ijÆFb[dj[hmWbZÇYWddejX[eXjW_d[Z_\j^[h[Y[dj^Whl[ij_d]
ijhWj[]o_iYedj_dk[Z$J^_i_iZk[jej^[\WYjj^Wjj^[h[Wh[jeecWdojh[[i_dj^[
^_]^[ij:8>YbWii"h[ikbj_d]_dWl[hobemjejWbjh[[dkcX[hf[h^[YjWh[e\edbo
&IGÈÈ$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈ
GROWINGÈSTOCKÈINÈTHEÈMANAGEMENTÈ
DISTRICTÈ3ONNENWALDÈDURINGÈAÈSIMU
LATIONÈPERIODÈOFÈÈYEARS
&IGÈÈ$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈANNUALÈINCREMENTÈANDÈREMOVALSÈINÈTHEÈMANAGEMENTÈDISTRICTÈ3ON
NENWALDÈ#ONTINUATIONÈOFÈTHEÈRECENTÈMANAGEMENTÈREGIMEÈLEFT ÈANDÈAPPLYINGÈAÈSTANDARDÈEQUI
LIBRIUMÈCURVEÈRIGHT
(&* #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[i
',)$?dYedjhWij"j^[Wffb_YWj_ede\j^[ijWdZWhZ[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[fhel_Z[iW\_dWb
:8>Z_ijh_Xkj_edj^Wj_il[hoYbei[jej^_iZ[i_h[Z[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[<_]$'&$)"
WdZj^[jejWbdkcX[he\jh[[if[h^[YjWh[+))_im_j^_dj^[Z[\_d[ZhWd][e\j^[
cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[$7biej^[lebkc[f[h^[YjWh[e\j^[]hem_d]ijeYalWh_[i
edbom_j^_dj^[hWd][e\)+&Ä*&&c)^WÄ'"Wi_jmWiZ[\_d[Z_dj^[cWdW][c[dj
eX`[Yj_l["Xkj_dYh[Wi[ije*/,c)^WÄ'WdZikXi[gk[djboZ[Yh[Wi[ije))/c)^WÄ'
_\j^[h[Y[dj^Whl[ij_d]ijhWj[]o_iYedj_dk[Z<_]$'&$*$
>em[l[h"\hecWd[Yedec_Yfe_dje\l_[mj^[cW_dZ_\\[h[dY[_dj^[jmecWd#
W][c[djh[]_c[i_ij^[\WYjj^WjedWl[hW]["el[hj^[m^eb[i_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ"j^[
c[WdWddkWbh[celWbiWh[*/^_]^[hm^[dj^[ijWdZWhZ[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[_iWf#
fb_[Z<_]$'&$+$J^_i_i[l[dceh[eXl_eki_\j^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[Yedjh_Xkj_ed
cWh]_di_iYedi_Z[h[Z<_]$'&$,$Ki_d]Wd_dj[h[ijhWj[e\)f[ho[Wh"j^[DFL
e\j^[[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[WffheWY^_i/+^_]^[hj^Wdj^[DFLe\j^[h[Y[djcWd#
W][c[djh[]_c[Yedj_dk[Z'("'+,li$,"(((;KH^WÄ'"[cf^Wi_i_d]j^[[Yedec#
_Yikf[h_eh_joe\j^[[gk_b_Xh_kcYkhl[WffheWY^$
È
0%%,).'
$EMO
È
$ATA
J^[_dfkjZWjW\ehj^_iZ[ce[nWcfb[YWc[\hecWj^_dd_d][nf[h_c[djj^Wj
mWi[ijWXb_i^[Z_d'/-&Xoj^[?dij_jkj[e\<eh[ij=hemj^H[i[WhY^8EAKKd_#
l[hi_joe\DWjkhWbH[iekhY[iWdZ7ffb_[ZB_\[IY_[dY[i"L_[ddW_dWfkh[ijWdZ
e\ DehmWo ifhkY[ F_Y[W WX_[i B$ AWhij$$ J^[ ijWdZ mWi )+o[Whi ebZ m^[d j^_i
&$*+#^Wh[i[WhY^fbejmWi[ijWXb_i^[Z$<ehekhZ[cedijhWj_edm[ki[Zj^[_d_j_Wb
ZWjWX[\eh[j^[\_hijjh[Wjc[dj^WZX[[df[h\ehc[Z$?dehZ[hjeeXjW_dWif[Y_\_Y
dkcX[he\f[[b[Zjh[[i"m[Wffb_[ZWijWj_YceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_d]Wjh[[ÉifheXWX_b_joe\
&IGÈÈ$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈ
THEÈCONTRIBUTIONÈMARGINÈ#- È
REVENUESÈNETÈOFÈCOSTS ÈINÈTHEÈ
MANAGEMENTÈDISTRICTÈ3ONNEN
WALDÈDURINGÈAÈSIMULATIONÈPERI
ODÈOFÈÈYEARS
È 0%%,).'
$EMO (&+
[n^_X_j_d]ZWcW][YWki[ZXoXWhaf[[b_d]Ij[hXW[jWb$(&&)$J^[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj#
[Zj^Wj(&e\j^[jh[[im[h[f[[b[Z$8[YWki[j^_iijWdZ_ibeYWj[Zd[Whj^[\eh[ij
cWdW][c[djZ_ijh_YjIedd[dmWbZ"j^[iWc[ckbj_fb_[hiWifh[i[dj[Z_dj^[9ED#
L;HI?ED#:[ceJWXb['&$(m[h[ki[Z\ehj^[i_ckbWj_edhkdi$M[i_ckbWj[ZW
f[h_eZe\.+o[Whi"\_dWbboh[ikbj_d]_dWhejWj_edf[h_eZe\'(&o[Whi$
È
3TANDÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ/BJECTIVE
7j j^[ [dZ e\ j^[ hejWj_ed f[h_eZ e\ '(&o[Whi" j^_i if[Y_\_Y DehmWo ifhkY[
ijWdZi^ekbZ^Wl[Wi\[mZWcW][Zjh[[iWifeii_Xb["WdZW^_]^fhefehj_ede\jef#
gkWb_joj_cX[h$
È
-ANAGEMENTÈ2EGIMES
8[YWki[_dj^_iijWdZ(&e\j^[jh[[im[h[ZWcW][ZXoXWhaf[[b_d]"m[jh_[Z
jeZ[j[hc_d[j^[[\\[Yje\j^[fh[\[hh[Zh[celWbe\f[[b[Zjh[[im^[dWj^_dd_d]
^WZ je X[ f[h\ehc[Z$ >[dY[" m[ Wbie \ehckbWj[Z jme Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj h[#
]_c[i\ehj^_iijWdZ$J^[\_hijWbj[hdWj_l[mWiY^WhWYj[h_i[ZXo\ebbem_d]WXWiWb
Wh[WÄZec_dWdj^[_]^jYkhl[$M^[dj^[ijWdZXWiWbWh[W[nY[[Z[Zj^[XWiWbWh[W
WYYehZ_d]jej^[o_[bZjWXb["j^[ijWdZXWiWbWh[WmWih[ZkY[Zjej^[Yh_j_YWbXW#
iWbWh[W<_]$'&$-$
J^_ifheY[Zkh[h[ikbj[Z_dj^h[[j^_dd_d]ef[hWj_edi"h[cel_d]',/"'',WdZ
'*,c)^WÄ'Wjj^[W][e\)+"+&WdZ-&o[Whi"h[if[Yj_l[bo$J^[ijWdZlebkc[mWi
h[cel[Zm_j^ekjWdoh[]WhZjejh[[Wjjh_Xkj[i$<ebbem_d]j^[i[YedZWbj[hdWj_l["
[WY^j^_dd_d]mWif[h\ehc[ZWjj^[iWc[fe_dj_dj_c[WimWiZed[_dj^[\_hij
cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[$>em[l[h"_d[WY^j^_dd_d]m[jh_[Zjeh[cel[j^[jejWb
dkcX[he\f[[b[Zjh[[i$KdZWcW][Zjh[[im[h[edboh[cel[Zm^[dj^[lebkc[e\
j^[f[[b[Zjh[[imWidej[dek]^jeWY^_[l[j^[iWc[Wcekdje\h[cel[Zlebkc[
Wi_jmWikdZ[hj^[\_hijcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"_\j^[jejWb
lebkc[e\j^[f[[b[Zjh[[i[nY[[Z[Zj^[Wcekdje\lebkc[jeX[h[cel[Z"j^[ikh#
fbkidkcX[he\f[[b[Zjh[[ih[cW_d[Z_dj^[ijWdZ$
&IGÈÈ"ASALÈAREA
DOMINANTÈHEIGHTÈ
GUIDELINEÈTOÈDEFINEÈTHEÈMANAGEMENTÈ
REGIMEÈINÈTHEÈ0%%,).'
$EMOÈ7HENÈ
STANDÈBASALÈAREAÈEXCEEDEDÈBASALÈAR
EAÈACCORDINGÈTOÈTHEÈYIELDÈTABLEÈ;7EITRAÈ
D':ÈMÈHA
ÈYEAR
È-ARSCHALLÈ
=ÈAÈTHINNINGÈOPERATIONÈWASÈPER
FORMED
(&, #(!04%2È ;lWbkWj_d]CWdW][c[djH[]_c[i
È
%VALUATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ0%%,).'
$EMO
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed e\ j^[ jme Z_\\[h[dj ^Whl[ij_d] ijhWj[]_[i h[l[Wb[Z j^Wj j^[
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[^Wigk_j[Wijhed]_cfWYjedj^[Yecc[hY_Wbj_cX[hikffbo$
<hecWd_d_j_Wbfhefehj_ede\(&f[[b[Zjh[[iWjj^[W][e\)+o[Whi"j^_ifhefeh#
j_ed_dYh[Wi[Zje+.Wjj^[W][e\'(&o[Whi"_\_dj^_dd_d]ef[hWj_edijh[[im[h[
h[cel[Zm_j^ekjWdoh[]WhZjeij[cZWcW][iY[dWh_e'"<_]$'&$.$?dYedjhWij"_\
f[[b[Zjh[[im[h[fh[\[hWXboh[cel[Z_dj^_dd_d]ef[hWj_edi"j^[fhefehj_ede\
f[[b[Zjh[[iWjj^[[dZe\j^[hejWj_edf[h_eZmWiedbo+iY[dWh_e("<_]$'&$.$
<hecj^[i[h[ikbji_jYWdX[i[[dj^Wjj^[h[ckijX[Wd_cfWYjedj^[be]gkWb#
_joZ_ijh_Xkj_ed"m^_Y^_iZ[f_Yj[Z_d<_]$'&$/$J^ki"\ebbem_d]j^[cWdW][c[dj
h[]_c[e\iY[dWh_e("j^[fhefehj_ede\gkWb_joYbWii7X[ijgkWb_jo_dYh[Wi[ZXo
)m^_b[j^[fhefehj_ede\gkWb_joYbWii9mehijgkWb_joZ[Yh[Wi[ZXo)$
J^[ [Yedec_Y [lWbkWj_ed e\ j^[i[ jme cWdW][c[dj h[]_c[i _i fh[i[dj[Z _d
JWXb['&$)$?jYWdX[i[[dj^Wj_dXej^iY[dWh_eij^[Yedjh_Xkj_edcWh]_d9Cf[h
^[YjWh[e\j^[\_hijj^_dd_d]_id[]Wj_l[$>em[l[h"_\ZWcW][Zjh[[iWh[fh[\[hWXbo
h[cel[Z"j^[Yedjh_Xkj_edcWh]_d_ib[ii(');KH^WÄ'Zk[jej^[XWZbe]gkWb#
_joe\j^[ZWcW][Zjh[[i$F[h\ehc_d]j^[i[YedZWdZj^[j^_hZj^_dd_d]Wjj^[W][
&IGÈÈ 0ROPORTIONÈ BYÈ STEMÈ NUMBERÈ OFÈ PEELEDÈ TREESÈ ATÈ THEÈ ENDÈ OFÈ THEÈ ROTATIONÈ PERIODÈ OFÈ
ÈYEARS
&IGÈÈ ,OGÈ QUALITYÈ DISTRIBUTIONÈ BYÈ VOLUMEÈ ATÈ THEÈ ENDÈ OFÈ THEÈ ROTATIONÈ PERIODÈ OFÈ ÈYEARSÈ
1UALITYÈCLASSÈ!ÈBESTÈQUALITY ÈQUALITYÈCLASSÈ"ÈMEDIUMÈQUALITY ÈANDÈQUALITYÈCLASSÈ#ÈWORSTÈQUALITY
È 0%%,).'
$EMO (&-
e\+&WdZ-&o[Whi"h[if[Yj_l[bo"j^[Yedjh_Xkj_edcWh]_diWh[ij_bbb[ii_\ZWcW][Z
jh[[iWh[fh[\[hWXboh[cel[Z*)WdZ();KH^WÄ'$<_dWbbo"YecfWh_d]j^[Yed#
jh_Xkj_edcWh]_die\j^[jmeZ_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djh[]_c[iWjj^[[dZe\j^[he#
jWj_edf[h_eZ*("'+&li$*&"+&);KH^WÄ'"_jX[Yec[iYb[Whj^Wjj^[lWbk[e\j^[
h[cW_d_d]ijWdZYWdX[_dYh[Wi[ZXoj^[fh[\[hh[Zh[celWbe\ZWcW][Zjh[[i"Wb#
j^ek]^j^[jejWblebkc[_ibem[h-)/li$-**c)^WÄ'$>[dY["j^[_dYh[Wi[ZlWb#
k[e\j^[ijWdZ_iieb[boWh[ikbje\j^[_cfhel[ZYecc[hY_Wbj_cX[hWiiehjc[dj
WY^_[l[ZkdZ[hj^_icWdW][c[djh[]_c[$
?dehZ[hjeY^[Yam^[j^[hj^_icWdW][c[djh[]_c[mWifhe\_jWXb[Wim[bb"m[
WbieYWbYkbWj[Zj^[DFL$>em[l[h"_dij[WZe\YWbYkbWj_d]WDFL\eh[WY^iY[dWh#
_e"m[hWj^[hYWbYkbWj[Zed[DFLYedi_Z[h_d]j^[Z_\\[h[dY[ie\j^[Yedjh_Xkj_ed
cWh]_die\j^[jmecWdW][c[djh[]_c[iWiWZZ_j_edWbYeijiWdZWZZ[ZlWbk[i"h[#
if[Yj_l[bo0
',*-()*)
DFL3#ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ#############Ä#########ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ#######Ä#######ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ######Ä(')
'(&Ä)+ -&Ä)+ +&Ä)+
f
'!ÄÄÄÄÄ f
'!ÄÄÄÄÄ f
'!ÄÄÄÄÄ
'&& '&& '&&
m^[h[f_ij^[_dj[h[ijhWj[_df[ho[Wh$
4ABLEÈÈ %CONOMICÈ EVALUATIONÈ OFÈ TWOÈ DIFFERENTÈ MANAGEMENTÈ REGIMESÈ OFÈ THEÈ 0%%,).'
$EMOÈDGÈ1UADRATICÈMEANÈDIAMETERÈOFÈHARVESTEDÈTREESÈ#-ÈCONTRIBUTIONÈMARGINÈREVENUEÈMI
NUSÈCOSTS
&IRSTÈ
THINNINGÈ È È È nÈ È È nÈ n
3ECONDÈ
THINNINGÈ È È È È È È È n
4HIRDÈ
THINNINGÈ È È È È È È È n
&INALÈ
HARVESTÈ È È È È È È È
È )NTERESTÈRATEÈP
È È È È È È
?dWdoYWi[e\Wfei_j_l[DFLj^[_dl[ijc[dj_ifhe\_jWXb[$>em[l[h"j^[DFL
Z[f[dZiedj^[_dj[h[ijhWj[fWifh[i[dj[Z_dJWXb['&$*$J^ki"Wibed]Wim[Wi#
ikc[Wd_dj[h[ijhWj[f2($)"j^[_dl[ijc[dj_dj[hcie\j^[fh[\[hh[Zh[celWb
e\ZWcW][Zjh[[iYWdX[Yedi_Z[h[Zfhe\_jWXb[$?dej^[hmehZi"j^[fh[\[hh[Zh[#
celWbe\ZWcW][Zjh[[i_dj^[Yekhi[e\j^_dd_d]im_bbh[ikbj_dWdWffh[Y_Wj_ede\
j^[ijWdZj^WjWcekdjijeWd_dj[hdWbhWj[e\h[jkhde\($((WjcWn_ckc$
È
3UMMARY
7 j^ehek]^bo Z[l[bef[Z _dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh _dj[dZ[Z je ^[bf
\eh[ij cWdW][hi _d Z[Y_i_ed ikffehj i^ekbZ X[ Xej^ \b[n_Xb[ h[]WhZ_d] j^[ ZW#
jWj^Wji^ekbZX[ki[Z_dj^[i_ckbWj_edhkdiWdZi[di_j_l[jeijWdZjh[Wjc[dj_d
ehZ[hjeZ[j[hc_d[j^[_cfWYje\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djh[]_c[iedYecc[hY_Wb
j_cX[hikffbo$8ej^e\j^[i[Z[i_h[Zfhef[hj_[im[h[Z[cedijhWj[Z_dj^_iY^Wf#
j[h$ J^[ 9EDL;HI?ED#:[ce i^em[Z ed j^[ b[l[b e\ Wd [dj_h[ \eh[ij cWdW][#
c[djZ_ijh_Yj^emWd_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehYWdX[ki[ZjeYedjhebiki#
jW_d[ZYecc[hY_Wbj_cX[hikffboZkh_d]j^[Yedl[hi_ed\hecWd[l[d#W][ZjeWd
kd[l[d#W][Z\eh[ijcWdW][c[djioij[c$?dj^[F;;B?D=#:[cej^[_cfWYjie\
Z_\\[h[dj jh[Wjc[dji ed W if[Y_\_Y ijWdZ m[h[ Z[cedijhWj[Z$ J^[ h[ikbji e\ j^_i
Z[ce[nWcfb[Yb[Whboi^emj^[i[di_j_l_joe\j^[d[mceZ[bi\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]jh[[
Wjjh_Xkj[i WdZ j^[_h _cfehjWdY[ \eh j^[ [Yedec_Y [lWbkWj_ed e\ Z_\\[h[dj ijWdZ
cWdW][c[djh[]_c[i$
2EFERENCES
"ITTERLICHÈ7È È$IEÈ7INKELZËHLPROBEÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZWIRTSCHAFTSZTGÈ n
#ANCINOÈ *È VONÈ 'ADOWÈ +È È 3TEMÈ NUMBERÈ GUIDEÈ CURVESÈ FORÈ UNEVEN
AGEDÈ FORESTSÈ DEVE
LOPMENTÈ ANDÈ LIMITATIONSÈ )NÈ 6ONÈ 'ADOWÈ +È .AGELÈ *È 3ABOROWSKIÈ *È EDS È -ANAGINGÈ FORESTÈ
ECOSYSTEMSÈ CONTINUOUSÈ COVERÈ FORESTRYÈ nÈ ASSESSMENTÈ ANALYSISÈ SCENARIOSÈ VOLÈÈ +LUWERÈ
$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
$AXNERÈ 0È 'UTMANNÈ !È (AGERÈ (È +ROIHERÈ &È 3AGLÈ 7È 3TAMPFERÈ +È 3TERBAÈ (È È .ATURNAHEÈ
7ALDWIRTSCHAFTÈUNDÈDERENÈ!USWIRKUNGÈAUFÈDASÈ«KOSYSTEMÈ7ALDÈEINEÈÚKOLOGISCHEÈWALD
WACHSTUMSKUNDLICHEÈ FORSTTECHNISCHEÈ UNDÈ SOZIOÚKONOMISCHEÈ 3TUDIEÈ 2ESÈ 2EPÈ "-,&È ':ÈÈ
2EFERENCES (&/
È
6!BÈ ANDÈ
6!BÈ "UNDESMINISTERIUMÈ FàRÈ ,AND
È UÈ &ORSTWIRT
SCHAFTÈ6IENNA
%CKMàLLNERÈ/È3TERBAÈ(È È%RWEITERTEÈ%INZELSTAMMSORTENTAFELÈFàRÈ&ICHTEÈ«STERREICHISCHESÈ
&/234
*AHRBUCHÈÈ«STERREICHISCHERÈ!GRARVERLAGÈ7IENÈPPÈn
(ASENAUERÈ (È È $IEÈ SIMULTANENÈ %IGENSCHAFTENÈ VONÈ 7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLENÈ "LACKWELLÈ
"ERLIN
,EDERMANNÈ4ÈA È%INÈ%INWUCHSMODELLÈAUSÈDENÈ$ATENÈDERÈ«STERREICHISCHENÈ7ALDINVENTURÈ
nÈ#ENTRALBLÈ'ESÈ&ORSTWESENÈn
,EDERMANNÈ4ÈB È5SINGÈLOGISTICÈREGRESSIONÈTOÈMODELÈTREEÈSELECTIONÈPREFERENCESÈFORÈHARVES
TINGÈINÈFORESTSÈINÈCONVERSIONÈ)NÈ6ONÈ'ADOWÈ+È.AGELÈ*È3ABOROWSKIÈ*ÈEDS È-ANAGINGÈFORESTÈ
ECOSYSTEMSÈ CONTINUOUSÈ COVERÈ FORESTRYÈ nÈ ASSESSMENTÈ ANALYSISÈ SCENARIOSÈ VOLÈÈ +LUWERÈ
$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
,EDERMANNÈ4È%CKMàLLNERÈ/È È!ÈMETHODÈTOÈATTAINÈUNIFORMÈRESOLUTIONÈOFÈTHEÈCOMPETITIONÈ
VARIABLEÈ BASAL
AREA
IN
LARGERÈ TREESÈ "!, È DURINGÈ FORESTÈ GROWTHÈ PROJECTIONSÈ OFÈ SMALLÈ PLOTSÈ
%COLÈ-ODELLINGÈn
-ARSCHALLÈ *È È (ILFSTAFELNÈ FàRÈ DIEÈ &ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈ È !UFLÈ «STERREICHISCHERÈ !GRARVERLAGÈ
7IEN
-ONSERUDÈ2!È3TERBAÈ(È È!ÈBASALÈAREAÈINCREMENTÈMODELÈFORÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈGROWINGÈINÈ
EVEN
ÈANDÈUNEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTÈSTANDSÈINÈ!USTRIAÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
-ONSERUDÈ2!È3TERBAÈ(È È-ODELLINGÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈMORTALITYÈFORÈ!USTRIANÈFORESTÈSPECIESÈ
&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
2EININGERÈ(È È$ASÈ0LENTERPRINZIPÈODERÈDIEȯBERFàHRUNGÈDESÈ!LTERSKLASSENWALDESÈ3TOCKERÈ
'RAZ
2ICHTERÈ*È È.EUEÈ!SPEKTEÈDERÈ.ACHHALTIGKEITÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTZÈn
3AGLÈ7È3TERBAÈ(È(AGERÈ(È3TAMPFERÈ+È È3CHLAGWALDÈVERSUSÈ$AUERWALDÈ«STERREICHÈ&ORSTZÈ
n
3CHIELERÈ+È È-ETHODEÈDERÈ:UWACHSBERECHNUNGÈDERÈ«STERREICHISCHENÈ7ALDINVENTURÈ$IS
SERTATIONÈ5NIVERSITËTÈFàRÈ"ODENKULTURÈ7IEN
3CHIELERÈ+È3CHADAUERÈ+È È:UWACHSÈUNDÈ.UTZUNGÈNACHÈDERÈ«STERREICHISCHENÈ&ORSTINVENTURÈ
È«STERREICHÈ&ORSTZÈ n
3CHULTEÈ "*È "UONGIORNOÈ *È È %FFECTSÈ OFÈ UNEVEN
AGEDÈ SILVICULTUREÈ ONÈ THEÈ STANDÈ STRUCTUREÈ
SPECIESÈ COMPOSITIONÈ ANDÈ ECONOMICÈ RETURNSÈ OFÈ LOBLOLLYÈ PINEÈ STANDSÈ &ORÈ %COLÈ -ANAGEÈ
n
3MALTSCHINSKIÈ4È È-ISCHBESTËNDEÈINÈDERÈ"UNDESREPUBLIKÈ$EUTSCHLANDÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈn
3ÚDERBERGHÈ)È,EDERMANNÈ4È È!LGORITHMSÈFORÈSIMULATINGÈTHINNINGÈANDÈHARVESTINGÈINÈFIVEÈ
%UROPEANÈINDIVIDUAL
TREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈAÈREVIEWÈ#OMPUTÈ%LECTRONÈ!GRICÈn
3TERBAÈ (È +LEINEÈ -È %CKMàLLNERÈ /È È 3ORTENTAFELNÈ FàRÈ 4ANNEÈ ,ËRCHEÈ +IEFERÈ UNDÈ "UCHEÈ
«STERREICHISCHERÈ!GRARVERLAGÈ7IEN
3TERBAÈ(È6OSPERNIKÈ3È,EDERMANNÈ4È È3TEMÈQUALITYÈPREDICTIONSÈANDÈASSORTMENTSÈFROMÈREALÈ
HARVESTSÈ)NÈ6ACIKÈ(È,EXERÈ-*È2AUSCHERÈ-(È2EYNOLDSÈ+-È"ROOKSÈ24ÈEDS È$ECISIONÈ3UP
PORTÈ FORÈ -ULTIPLEÈ 0URPOSEÈ &ORESTRYÈ !È 4RANSDISCIPLINARYÈ #ONFERENCEÈ ONÈ THEÈ $EVELOPMENTÈ
ANDÈ!PPLICATIONÈOFÈ$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ4OOLSÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈnÈ!PRILÈ5NIVERSITYÈ
OFÈ.ATURALÈ2ESOURCESÈANDÈ!PPLIEDÈ,IFEÈ3CIENCESÈ6IENNAÈ#$
2/-È0ROC
#(!04%2È (''
!È$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈ3YSTEMÈ
FORÈ-ULTI
#RITERIAÈ&ORESTÈ%STATEÈ0LANNINGÈ
)NTEGRATINGÈAÈ&ORESTÈ'ROWTHÈ3IMULATORÈ
&UZZY
)NFERENCEÈ4ECHNIQUESÈ
ANDÈAÈ(EURISTICÈ/PTIMISATIONÈ!PPROACH
HW_d[hC$IeZja['">[_dpKjiY^_](">WdiFh[jpiY^)
!BSTRACTÈ 4HEÈ EXTENDEDÈ PERCEPTIONÈ OFÈ SUSTAINABLEÈ FORESTÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ -#0&%È È
DEMANDSÈ THEÈ INTEGRATIONÈ OFÈ MULTIPLEÈ MANAGEMENTÈ FUNCTIONSÈ ANDÈ CRITERIAÈ INTOÈ STRATEGICÈ
FORESTÈ ENTERPRISEÈ PLANNINGÈ ANDÈ DECISIONÈ MAKINGÈ $ECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMSÈ $33 È WITHÈ
EFFECTIVEÈMODELÈANDÈMETHODÈCOMPONENTSÈCANÈEFFECTIVELYÈSUPPORTÈTHISÈPLANNINGÈPROCEDUREÈ
&ORÈTHISÈ$33ÈMUSTÈINTEGRATEÈTREEÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORSÈINÈORDERÈTOÈRUNÈSCENARIOÈSIMULATIONSÈOFÈ
STANDÈDYNAMICSÈTOÈPROJECTÈTHEÈLONG
TERMÈCONSEQUENCESÈOFÈMANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈANDÈ
TOÈ SCALEÈ STANDÈ DYNAMICÈ PROCESSESÈ ATÈ DIFFERENTÈ SPATIALÈ ANDÈ TEMPORALÈ LEVELSÈ &URTHERMOREÈ
$33È MUSTÈ INCLUDEÈ EVALUATIONÈ MODELSÈ CAPABLEÈ OFÈ INCORPORATINGÈ EXPERTÈ INFORMATIONÈ ANDÈ
FUZZYÈREASONINGÈ$33ÈSHOULDÈALSOÈINTEGRATEÈAPPROPRIATEÈOPTIMISATIONÈALGORITHMSÈTOÈIDENTIFYÈ
OPTIMALÈPROBLEMÈSOLUTIONSÈDEPENDENTÈONÈMULTIPLEÈOBJECTIVESÈ4HISÈCHAPTERÈPRESENTSÈAÈ$33È
APPROACHÈ INTENDEDÈ TOÈ SUPPORTÈ STRATEGICÈ MULTI
CRITERIAÈ FORESTÈ PLANNINGÈ ANDÈ MANAGEMENTÈ
ATÈ STANDÈ ANDÈ ESTATEÈ LEVELSÈ 4HEÈ $33È ISÈ AIMEDÈ ATÈ FORESTÈ ENTERPRISEÈ MANAGERSÈ ASÈ WELLÈ ASÈ ATÈ
THEÈ FORESTÈ MANAGEMENTÈ PLANNINGÈ SERVICESÈ 4ECHNICALLYÈ THEÈ $33È INTEGRATESÈ THEÈ INDIVIDUALÈ
TREE
GROWTHÈ SIMULATORÈ 3),6!È È 0RETZSCHÈ È ANDÈ COMBINESÈ ITÈ WITHÈ FUZZY
INFERENCEÈ
TECHNIQUESÈANDÈAÈHEURISTICÈ4ABUÈ3EARCHÈOPTIMISATIONÈAPPROACHÈ4HEÈMAINÈPARTSÈOFÈTHEÈ$33È
CONCERNINGÈTHEÈTECHNICALÈSTRUCTUREÈTHEÈDATABASEÈTHEÈDECISIONÈSPACEÈTHEÈOBJECTIVEÈSYSTEMÈ
ANDÈTHEÈEVALUATIONÈSYSTEMÈWILLÈBEÈPRESENTEDÈASÈWELLÈASÈTHEÈMAINÈFUZZY
INFERENCEÈALGORITHMSÈ
ANDÈUTILITYÈFUNCTIONSÈ4HEÈHEURISTICÈMULTI
CRITERIAÈOPTIMISATIONÈAPPROACHÈDEVELOPEDÈFORÈTHEÈ
SPECIFICÈ$33ÈREQUIREMENTSÈWILLÈBEÈSHOWNÈ)NÈADDITIONÈSOMEÈEXAMPLEÈRESULTSÈDEMONSTRAT
INGÈTHEÈ$33SÈPLAUSIBILITYÈANDÈSENSITIVITYÈWILLÈBEÈGIVENÈ&INALLYÈTHEÈCHAPTERÈCONCLUDESÈWITHÈAÈ
BRIEFÈDISCUSSIONÈOFÈTHEÈ$33ÈAPPROACHÈANDÈOUTLINESÈPERSPECTIVESÈFORÈFURTHERÈRESEARCH
' [#cW_b0hW_d[h$ieZja[6kd_#^WcXkh]$Z[H[i[WhY^9[djh[e\8_ej[Y^debe]o"IeY_[joWdZ;d#
l_hedc[dj"Kd_l[hi_joe\>WcXkh]"E^d^ehijijh$'."((,&/>WcXkh]"=[hcWdo
(") 9^W_he\<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY["J[Y^d_iY^[Kd_l[hi_jjCdY^[d"7c>eY^Wd][h')".+)+*<h[#
_i_d]"=[hcWdo
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
('( #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
È
)NTRODUCTION
Bed]#j[hc \eh[ij fbWdd_d] W_ci Wj j^[ ikijW_dWXb[ Z[l[befc[dj e\ \eh[iji$
J^_ijWia_iX[Yec_d]_dYh[Wi_d]boZ_\\_YkbjX[YWki[j^[Z[cWdZ\ehikijW_dWX_b#
_joWffb_[idejedbojej_cX[hfheZkYj_ed"XkjWbiejeckbj_fb[[Yebe]_YWbWdZie#
Y_e#[Yedec_Yi_bl_YkbjkhWb\kdYj_edi"\eh[nWcfb[fhej[Yj_ede\ie_bWdZ]hekdZ
mWj[hWdZj^[W[ij^[j_Yie\dWjkhWbiY[d[ho"WdZi^ekbZX[_dj[]hWj[Z_djecWd#
W][c[djZ[Y_i_edi$J^[i[\kdYj_ediYWdWZZh[ii\eh[ijh[iekhY[i"\eh[ij[Yeioij[c
^[Wbj^ WdZ l_jWb_jo" X_ebe]_YWb Z_l[hi_jo" fhej[Yj_l[ \kdYj_edi eh ieY_e#[Yedec_Y
\eh[ij\kdYj_ediC9F<;(&&&$J^[h[\eh["Y[hjW_dYh_j[h_WckijX[_djheZkY[Z_d#
je\eh[ijfbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_edcWa_d]IeZja[[jWb$(&&*$J^_i[nj[dZ[Zf[hY[f#
j_ede\ikijW_dWX_b_jo_iWiieY_Wj[Zm_j^j^[jhWdi_j_ed\hecfkh[jec_n[ZijWdZi
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$"j^_iLeb$$>em[l[h"j^_ifheY[iih[gk_h[i_d\ehcWj_edj^WjYWddej
X[fhel_Z[ZXoj^[ceZ[be\_Z[Wb\eh[ijieho_[bZjWXb[i$JeZWo"ckY^_d\ehcW#
j_ed_iWlW_bWXb[\heciWcfb[fbeji"i_j[YbWii_\_YWj_ed"[jY$m^_Y^YekbZX[X[jj[h
kj_b_i[Z_\j^[fbWdd_d]fheY[Zkh[mWi_cfhel[Z>Wd[m_da[b(&&'1If[bbcWdd[j
Wb$(&&'1led=WZem(&&)$<khj^[hceh["_dYh[Wi_d]fkXb_Y_dj[h[ij_d\eh[ijiZ[#
cWdZi fWhj_Y_fWj_l[ fbWdd_d] c[j^eZi$ IkX`[Yj je j^[ [nj[dZ[Z jWiai e\ jeZWo"
:II[$]$8edYp[a[jWb$'/.'YWd[\\[Yj_l[boikffehjbed]#j[hc\eh[ijfbWdd_d]
[$]$HWkiY^[h'///$
:IIWh[_dj[hWYj_l[Yecfkj[h#XWi[Zioij[ci_dj[dZ[Zje^[bfZ[Y_i_edcWa#
[hikj_b_i[ZWjWWdZceZ[bije_Z[dj_\oWdZiebl[XWZboijhkYjkh[ZfheXb[ciWdZ
cWa[[\\[Yj_l[Z[Y_i_edi8edYp[a[jWb$'/.'1P_cc[hcWdd'/.-1JkhXWd'//&$
7YYehZ_d] je j^[_h Wffb_YWj_ed fkhfei[i" :II YWd _dj[]hWj[ lWh_eki ceZ[b WdZ
c[j^eZYecfed[dji"Yel[h_d]Z_\\[h[djjWiaiikY^WiYecckd_YWj_ed"ZWjWWdZ
ademb[Z][ cWdW][c[dj" dkc[h_YWb i_ckbWj_ed WdZ fheXb[c iebkj_ed iY[dWh_e
[lWbkWj_ed"efj_c_iWj_edHWkiY^[h'///1Fem[h(&&'$J[Y^d_YWbbo"W:IIi^ekbZ
X[ijhkYjkh[Z_dWYYehZWdY[m_j^j^[j^[ehoe\WhWj_edWb_$[$eX`[Yj_l[#eh_[djWj#
[ZZ[Y_i_edWdZj^[h[\eh[eh]Wd_i[Z_djeWZ[Y_i_edifWY["WdeX`[Yj_l[ifWY["W
fheXb[c iebkj_ed Yecfed[dj WdZ W Z_Wbe]k[ Yecfed[dj ki[h _dj[h\WY[ BWkn
'/.(1CW]'//&1A[bb_d]'//'18WcX[h]WdZ9e[d[dX[h](&&($7ij^[cW_djeebi
jei[jkfj^[Z[Y_i_edifWY["\eh[ij]hemj^ceZ[biYWdX[Wffb_[Z$J^[i[ceZ[bi
YWdX[kj_b_i[ZjehkdiY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edie\ijWdZZodWc_Yi"jefhe`[Yjj^[bed]#
j[hcYedi[gk[dY[ie\cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWdZjeiYWb[ijWdZZodWc_YfheY#
[ii[iWjZ_\\[h[djifWj_WbWdZj[cfehWbb[l[bi$;lWbkWj_edceZ[biWh[h[gk_h[Z\eh
ijhkYjkh_d]WdZ[lWbkWj_d]j^[h[ikbji"WdZ\ehYedZkYj_d]ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WfbWki_X_b#
_joWdZi[di_j_l_joWdWboi[i$9ecX_d[Zm_j^Wffhefh_Wj[efj_c_iWj_edWb]eh_j^ci"
efj_cWbfheXb[ciebkj_edi\ehckbj_fb[eX`[Yj_l[iYWdX[_Z[dj_\_[Z$
J^[ eX`[Yj_l[i e\ ekh h[i[WhY^ meha Wh[ je Z[i_]d WdZ Z[l[bef W :II je Wi#
i_ij_dj^[ijhWj[]_YcWdW][c[djfbWdd_d]e\\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[iWdZj[ij_jXoki#
_d]\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW$J^[cW_d\eYki_ijeYecX_d[W\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjeh
m_j^ _dl[djeho ZWjWXWi[i" ][e]hWf^_YWb _d\ehcWj_ed ioij[ci" l_ikWb_iWj_ed hek#
j_d[iWdZWb]eh_j^ci\eh[lWbkWj_edWdZefj_c_iWj_edFh[jpiY^WdZI[_\[hj(&&&1
Fh[jpiY^(&&)$IkY^Wioij[cm_bbX[ki[\kb\ehj[WY^_d]WdZjhW_d_d]Wim[bbWi
\ehfhWYj_YWbki[_dbed]#j[hc\eh[ijfbWdd_d]$Jei_ckbWj[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Y_dZ_YW#
jehi e\ \eh[ij ijWdZ ZodWc_Yi" j^[ \eh[ij ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh I?BL7 ($( Fh[jpiY^
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH (')
(&&'m_bbX[ki[Zhkdd_d]_dXWjY^ceZ[$CWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[iXWi[Zedkd#
Y[hjW_d [nf[hj ademb[Z][ WdZ h[gk_h[c[dji if[Y_\_[Z Xo ekh fhWYj_YWb fWhjd[hi
J^[9ekdjÉi7hYe#P_dd[X[h]<eh[ij;dj[hfh_i[i"Ceei"8WlWh_W"WdZj^[Ckd_Y#
_fWb<eh[ije\JhWkdij[_d"8WlWh_Wm_bbX[_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[eX`[Yj_l[ioij[ce\
j^[ :II$ <eh fheXb[c iebkj_ed" if[Y_\_Y [lWbkWj_ed Wb]eh_j^ci WdZ efj_c_iWj_ed
fheY[Zkh[i^Wl[jeX[YecX_d[ZWdZ_cfb[c[dj[Z_djej^[:IIÉifheXb[ciebk#
j_edYecfed[dj$<ehfhWYj_YWbWffb_YWj_ed"WdWZ[gkWj[ki[h_dj[h\WY[m_bbX[fhe#
]hWcc[ZWim[bbWib_dai\ehki[m_j^W]hWf^_YWb_d\ehcWj_edioij[cWdZl_ikWb#
_iWj_edhekj_d[i$<_dWbbo"j^[:IIm_bbX[j[ij[ZXoki_d]_dl[djehoZWjW\hecekh
\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[fWhjd[hi$
È
4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH
È
&IELDSÈOFÈ!PPLICATION
J^_iWffheWY^e\W\eh[ijho:II_iW_c[ZWj\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[cWdW][hiWim[bb
Wi\eh[ijcWdW][c[djfbWdd[hi\eh[nWcfb["fh_lWj[ehijWj[#XWi[Z\eh[ijfbWd#
d_d]i[hl_Y[i$M^_b[j^[\ehc[hd[[ZWd[lWbkWj_ede\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djWb#
j[hdWj_l[iWj[ijWj[b[l[bikX`[Yjjeckbj_fb[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i"j^[bWjj[hh[bo
edj^[_Z[dj_\_YWj_ede\efj_cWbjh[Wjc[djijhWj[]_[i_dif[Y_\_Yi_jkWj_ediijWdZ
b[l[b$8ej^cWdW][hiWdZfbWdd[hiWh[_dj[h[ij[Z_dbed]#j[hcijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]
i_bl_YkbjkhWbcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[iWdZb[ii_di^ehj#j[hcef[hWj_edWbfbWdd_d]
[$]$ki[e\cWY^_d[i"bWXekheh]Wd_iWj_ed$J^[W_c_ijeeX`[Yj_\oj^[Z[Y_i_ed
cWa_d]fheY[ii[iWdZjecWa[j^[cceh[kdZ[hijWdZWXb[$<ehj^_i"]hemj^i_c#
kbWj_ediXWi[ZedcWdW][c[djiY[dWh_eiWh[Wii_]d_\_YWdjWi_dijhkc[dji\eh[d#
^WdY_d]j^[jhWdifWh[dYoe\i_bl_YkbjkhWbZ[Y_i_ediWdZj^[feii_X_b_j_[i\ehfkXb_Y
fWhj_Y_fWj_ed$J^_icWoX[e\_dj[h[ij_d"\eh[nWcfb["ckd_Y_fWb\eh[ijiehWh[Wi
fhej[Yj[ZXoDWjkhW(&&&eh<WkdW<behW>WX_jWjZ[i_]dWj_ed$<hecj^_i"j^[h[_iW
Z[cWdZ_dZ[l[bef_d]:IIdejedboWXb[jei_ckbWj[bed]#j[hciY[dWh_eiXkjWbie
je[lWbkWj[Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[im_j^h[if[Yjjeckbj_fb[Yh_j[h_W"je
Yedi_Z[hlWh_ekiifWj_WbijWdZ"[dj[hfh_i[ikX#kd_j"[dj[hfh_i[WdZj[cfehWbb[l#
[bi"WdZX[WXb[jel_ikWbboh[fh[i[djWbj[hdWj_l[h[ikbji_dWik_jWXb[cWdd[h$<_dWb#
bo"ikY^Wioij[cWbie_djheZkY[i\eh[ijhoijkZ[djiÄj^[\kjkh[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hiÄ
jeYecfkj[h#W_Z[ZcWdW][c[djfbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]$
È
$ATA
J^hek]^ i[l[hWb _dj[hl_[mi XWi[Z ed gk[ij_eddW_h[i e\ ekh fhWYj_YWb fWhj#
d[hi=$<_iY^[h"Ckd_Y_fWb<eh[ije\JhWkdij[_d"8WlWh_WWdZM$#:$HWZ_a["J^[
9ekdjÉi7hYe#P_dd[X[h]<eh[ij;dj[hfh_i[i"Ceei"8WlWh_W"_d\ehcWj_ed\eh_Z[d#
j_\o_d] h[b[lWdj Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi e\ j^[ Z[Y_i_ed fheY[ii eX`[Yj_l[i%Yh_j[h_W WdZ
('* #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
if[Y_\_Y _dZ_YWjehi" Wi m[bb Wi \eh Z[h_l_d] \kdYj_edWb h[bWj_edi X[jm[[d eX`[Y#
j_l[i WdZ _dZ_YWjehi" mWi ]W_d[Z$ J^[ WYgk_h[Z _d\ehcWj_ed mWi ][d[hWbbo ]_l[d
WilW]k[ehkdY[hjW_dijWj[c[dji$H[b[lWdjlWh_WXb[ieX`[Yj_l[i"_dZ_YWjehim[h[
kikWbbo [nfh[ii[Z Wi b_d]k_ij_Y lWh_WXb[i m_j^ lW]k[ eh \kppo lWbk[i Q[$]$ÈdWh#
hem^[_]^j%ZX^^]%Z]hWj_eÉZX^"Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h1^]%Z]"^[_]^j%Z_Wc[#
j[he\Wij[ch[fh[i[djWj_l[e\j^[m^eb[ijWdZ1Èl[hofeehl[hj_YWbijhkYjkh[É1i[[
JWXb[''$'S$M_j^j^[ki[e\\kppobe]_Y"if[Y_\_YWj_edie\j^[b_d]k_ij_YlWh_WXb[i
YekbZX[Z[iYh_X[ZXo\kppoi[jii[["[$]$"P_cc[hcWdd'//,$J^[WYgk_h[Z[n#
f[hjademb[Z][mWijhWdi\[hh[Z_djehkb[iWdZ_dj[]hWj[Z_dje\kppo_d\[h[dY[ioi#
j[ciCWjbWX<kppoJeebXen"J^[CWj^Mehai$J^[]W_d[Z_d\ehcWj_edYekbZWb#
ieX[ki[ZjeZ[\_d[kj_b_jo\kdYj_edi\ehj^[[lWbkWj_ede\cWdW][c[djWbj[hdW#
j_l[iWjZ_\\[h[djifWj_Wbb[l[bi$
Je YedijhkYj W ZWjW feeb m_j^ h[ikbj_d] \eh[ij ijWj[ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi _$[$ _dZ_#
YWjehi\eh[lWbkWj_d]ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WeX`[Yj_l[\kb\_bc[dj"[$]$ZX^"^[_]^je\Zec#
_dWdj jh[[i" [jY$ Z[f[dZ_d] ed Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i WdZ [dl_hed#
c[djWb i_jkWj_edi i_j[i" ijWdZi lWh_eki iY[dWh_e i_ckbWj_edi m[h[ YWhh_[Z ekj
m_j^j^[\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?BL7($($J^[i[iY[dWh_ei_dYbkZ[Zi[jie\Z_\#
\[h[djc_n[ZijWdZie\DehmWoifhkY[WdZYeccedX[[Y^"i[l[hWbi_j[iWYYehZ#
_d]jej^[[dj[hfh_i[ie\ekhfhWYj_YWbfWhjd[hiWdZi[jie\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[dj
Wbj[hdWj_l[i$
<eh:II[lWbkWj_edWdZlWb_ZWj_ed"ekhfhWYj_YWbfWhjd[hiikffb_[Zkim_j^_d#
l[djehoZWjW\hecj^[_h\eh[ij[ijWj[i$J^[i[ZWjW_dYbkZ[Z_d\ehcWj_edWXekjj^[
i_j[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWjZ_ijh_Yjb[l[b8Wo[hd#<ehij'//)"Wim[bbWi\eh[ijfbWdd_d]
cWfim_j^][ec[jh_Y_d\ehcWj_edWdZZWjWWXekjjh[[if[Y_[iYecfei_j_edWdZ
]hemj^Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiijWdZW]["^[_]^j"ZX^"[jY$WjijWdZb[l[b$
È
$33È3TRUCTURE
J^[j[Y^d_YWbijhkYjkh[e\j^[:IIÈI_blWIkffehjÉ_iYbei[boeh_[djWj[Zjej^[
j^[ehoe\eX`[Yj_l[#eh_[djWj[ZZ[Y_i_edcWa_d]8WcX[h]WdZ9e[d[dX[h](&&(1
IeZja[(&&)$?dehZ[hjeYh[Wj[WijWdZ#Wbed[ie\jmWh[Ä_dZ[f[dZ[dje\j^[fhe#
]hWcc_d]ie\jmWh[WdZj^[ef[hWj_d]ioij[cÄj^[:IIWhY^_j[Yjkh[mWiZ[l[b#
ef[Zm_j^j^[fhe]hWcc_d]bWd]kW][9!!8ehbWdZ$?dehZ[hjecWa[j^[Z[Y_#
i_edcWa_d]fheY[iihWj_edWbWdZYecfh[^[di_Xb["j^[:II_dj[]hWj[ij^[\ebbem#
_d]cW_dYecfed[dji0Wd_dj[h\WY[m_j^j^[[n_ij_d]\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?BL7
($(Fh[jpiY^(&&'"WZWjWXWi[\ehijeh_d]i_ckbWj_edh[ikbji"WikX#ioij[c\ehj^[
eh]Wd_iWj_ede\ademb[Z][#XWi[ZeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ediWdZj^[Z[\_d_j_ede\h[if[Y#
j_l[eX`[Yj_l[fh[\[h[dY[i"WikX#ioij[c\ehckbj_#Yh_j[h_W[lWbkWj_edWdZ_Z[dj_\_#
YWj_ede\efj_cWbcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i"WdZW]hWf^_YWbki[h_dj[h\WY[WiWZ_#
Wbe]k[WdZademb[Z][WYgk_i_j_edYecfed[dj<_]$''$'$<khj^[hceh["feii_X_b_#
j_[im[h[Yh[Wj[Z\ehZ_h[YjWdZ_dZ_h[Yjb_da_d]m_j^j^[=?I7hYL_[m;IH?WdZ
m_j^ej^[hl_ikWb_iWj_edioij[ciFh[jpiY^WdZI[_\[hj(&&&"Wbbem_d]WdWffhe#
fh_Wj[l_ikWb_iWj_ede\h[ikbjWdZ[lWbkWj_edc[Wikh[i$7cWdW][c[djikX#ioij[c
YedjW_diWb]eh_j^ci\ehb_da_d]WdZhkdd_d]Wbb:IIYecfed[djiWdZ\ehfheY[ii#
_d]j^[ZWjW_dfkjWdZekjfkjl_Wj^[ki[h#_dj[h\WY[WdZ%ehZWjW\_b[i$
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH ('+
4ABLEÈÈ-ANAGEMENTÈOBJECTIVESÈANDÈRESPECTIVEÈINDICATORSÈFORÈEVALUATIONÈACCORDINGÈTOÈTHEÈ
0AN
%UROPEANÈCRITERIAÈOFÈSUSTAINABLEÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈ-#0&%È ÈANDÈRELEVANTÈTOÈOURÈAS
SOCIATEÈ FORESTÈ ENTERPRISESÈ -UNICIPALÈ &ORESTÈ 4RAUNSTEINÈ 'ERMANYÈ ANDÈ 4HEÈ #OUNTSÈ !RCO
:IN
NEBERGÈ&ORESTÈ%NTERPRISESÈ'ERMANY
-ANAGEMENTÈOBJECTIVESÈ )NDICATORSÈDYNAMICÈFORESTÈSTATEÈVARIABLES
4IMBERÈPRODUCTIONÈÈ
COMMERCIALÈEFFICIENCY È .ETÈRETURNÈFROMÈTIMBERÈSALE
È 'ROWINGÈSTOCKÈDYNAMICSÈBALANCEÈBETWEENÈWOOD
È GROWTHÈANDÈREMOVALS
È 4IMBERÈASSORTMENTÈQUALITY ÈSTRUCTURE
È 2OTATIONÈTIME
3TANDÈSTABILITYÈ 4REEÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITIONÈSHAREÈOFÈDEEPÈROOTERS
È #ROWNÈLENGTHSTANDÈHEIGHTÈRATIO
È 3TANDÈHEIGHTÈDOMINANTÈTREES
È 3LENDERNESSÈHDÈRATIO
"IODIVERSITYÈÈ
HABITATÈQUALITYÈSPECIESÈRICHNESS È .UMBERÈOFÈTREEÈSPECIES
È (ORIZONTALÈINTERMINGLINGÈINDEXÈBYÈ#LARKÈANDÈ%VANS
È 6ERTICALÈSTRUCTUREÈSPECIESÈPROFILEÈINDEXÈBYÈ0RETZSCH
È 3HAREÈOFÈDEADÈWOODÈWOODPECKERÈSTEMSÈ
È STANDINGÈTREESÈWITHÈDBHÈÈCM
0ROTECTIVEÈFUNCTIONSÈÈ
SOILÈGROUNDÈWATERÈPROTECTION È 4REEÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITIONÈSHAREÈOFÈDEEPÈROOTERS
È 0ERIODÈWITHÈCONTINUOUSÈSOILÈCOVER
È 6ERTICALÈSTRUCTUREÈSPECIESÈPROFILEÈINDEXÈBYÈ0RETZSCH
!ESTHETICSÈRECREATIONALÈFUNCTION È .UMBERÈOFÈTREEÈSPECIES
È (ORIZONTALÈINTERMINGLINGÈINDEXÈBYÈ#LARKÈANDÈ%VANS
È 6ERTICALÈSTRUCTUREÈSPECIESÈPROFILEÈINDEXÈBYÈ0RETZSCH
È &REQUENCYÈOFÈMANAGEMENTÈACTIONS
(ABITATÈQUALITYÈFORÈGAMEÈ
HUNTINGÈOPPORTUNITY È 3UPPLYÈOFÈAREAÈSPRUCEÈCLEAR
CUTTINGÈSYSTEM
È 3HAREÈOFÈBORDERLINESÈBETWEENÈSTANDSÈANDÈCLEARANCEÈAREAS
(', #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
M_j^j^[]hWf^_YWbki[h_dj[h\WY[=K?"j^[ioij[cki[h_iWXb[jeYecckd_#
YWj[m_j^j^[:II"jefhel_Z[_dfkjZWjWeh_d\ehcWj_edikY^WilWbk[ie\Z[Y_#
i_edlWh_WXb[i"ijWj[lWh_WXb[iehcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[iehje[nfehjekjfkjZW#
jWeh_d\ehcWj_edikY^Wi_dZ_YWjehehkj_b_jolWh_WXb[i$<khj^[hceh["l_Wj^[_d#
j[h\WY["j^[ki[hYWdeXjW_dWZZ_j_edWbehWkn_b_Who_d\ehcWj_edWXekjj^[ioij[c
ehioij[cijWjki$
J^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?BL7mWiik_j[Z\eh_dj[]hWj_ed_djej^[:IIX[YWki[
e\_ji\ebbem_d]fhef[hj_[i0'WiWZ_ijWdj#Z[f[dZ[dj_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[#]hemj^i_c#
kbWj_ed ceZ[b" I?BL7 f[hc_ji i_ckbWj_d] j^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\ Yecfb[n_jo ijhkY#
jkh[Z [l[d WdZ kd[l[d#W][Z fkh[ WdZ c_n[Z ijWdZi1 ( Wi Z[\_d[Z Xo j^[ fW#
hWc[j[h_iWj_edZWjW"I?BL7_ih[b_WXb[\ehceij=[hcWdi_j[YedZ_j_edi1)_jYel#
[hij^[ceijYecced=[hcWdjh[[if[Y_[i1WdZ*_j_ifeii_Xb[jehkdI?BL7_d
WXWjY^ef[hWj_edceZ[\eh[dj[hfh_i[i_ckbWj_edWdZ[nj[hdWbki[XoW:IIie\j#
mWh[Fh[jpiY^[jWb$"j^_iLeb$$8[YWki[e\j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehÉiifWj_Wbif[Y_\_Y_#
jo"j^[:II_iWbieWffb_YWXb[jeWm_Z[hWd][e\\eh[iji_j[i_dY[djhWb;khef[hWd]#
_d]\hec:[dcWhajej^[Im_ii7bfi"WdZfWhj_YkbWhbojei_j[YedZ_j_edi\ekdZ_d
iekj^[hd=[hcWdo$
J^[ ZWjWXWi[ YedjW_di i_ckbWj_ed h[ikbji \hec W ckbj_jkZ[ e\ cWdW][c[dj
iY[dWh_ei ][d[hWj[Z m_j^ j^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh I?BL7 kdZ[h fh[Z[\_d[Z YedZ_#
j_ediZ[\Wkbji$I_ckbWj_edh[ikbjiYedi_ije\Yecfb[j[jh[[b_ijiWim[bbWiY^Wh#
WYj[h_ij_Y _dZ_YWjehi e\ \eh[ij ijWj[ ZodWc_Yi ki[Z \eh [lWbkWj_d] j^[ eX`[Yj_l[
&IGÈÈ3TRUCTURALÈSCHEMEÈOFÈTHEÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ$33 È3),6!È3UPPORTÈ"OXESÈREPRE
SENTÈTHEÈMAINÈ$33ÈCOMPONENTSÈ!RROWSÈDENOTEÈDATAÈEXCHANGEÈBETWEENÈCOMPONENTSÈANDÈTHEÈ
SYSTEMSÈDATAÈINPUTÈANDÈOUTPUTÈ&ORÈMOREÈINFORMATIONÈREFERÈTOÈTHEÈTEXT
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH ('-
\kb\_bc[dj$ ?d j^[ [nWcfb[ e\ W '/#o[Wh#ebZ c_n[Z ijWdZ e\ DehmWo ifhkY[ WdZ
Yecced X[[Y^ m_j^ j^[ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[iÈde j^_dd_d]É"ÈceZ[hWj[É WdZ
Èijhed]j^_dd_d]\hecWXel[É"<_]$''$(i^emij^[j[cfehWbZodWc_Yie\j^[_dZ_YW#
jehi]hem_d]ijeYa"^[_]^j%Z_Wc[j[h^]%Z]hWj_e"l[hj_YWbijhkYjkh[Wi[nfh[ii[Z
Xoj^[if[Y_[ifhe\_b[_dZ[nFh[jpiY^[jWb$"j^_iLeb$WdZd[j h[jkhd \hec j_c#
X[hiWb[iYWbYkbWj[Z\hecWl[hW][=[hcWdj_cX[hfh_Y[iX[jm[[d'//&WdZ'///$
J^[Y^ei[dcWdW][c[djiY[dWh_eim[h[i[b[Yj[Z_dW]h[[c[djm_j^ekhfhWYj_#
YWbfWhjd[hiWdZWZZh[iied[e\j^[_hcW_dcWdW][c[djZ_b[ccWi$?dj^[YWi[e\
dej^_dd_d]"j^[^%Z^[_]^j%Z_Wc[j[he\Wd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[hWj_e_dZ_YWj_d]ijWdZ
ijWX_b_jo[lebl[iceijkd\WlekhWXbo"m^[h[Wij^[l[hj_YWbijhkYjkh[WiWd_dZ_YW#
jehe\X_eZ_l[hi_joi^_\ji\hecX[d[\_Y_WbjeWZl[hi[lWbk[iWjj^[W][e\)*o[Whi$
Fei_j_l[\_dWdY_Wbh[jkhdeYYkhi[Whb_[ijm_j^ijhed]j^_dd_d]$>em[l[h"YecfWh[Z
m_j^j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[i"j^_icWdW][c[djj[Y^d_gk[h[ikbji_dbem[hd[jh[jkhdi_d
j^[bed]hkd$
J^[i[i_ckbWj_edh[ikbjiYWdX[jWa[d\hecj^[=K?\eh\khj^[h[lWbkWj_ed$7b#
j[hdWj_l[bo"_d\ehcWj_ededi_j[Wjjh_Xkj[iWdZijWdZijhkYjkh["Wim[bbWicWdW][#
c[djif[Y_\_YWj_edi"YWdX[ikffb_[Zjej^[:IIXoZWjW\_b[iehl_WZ_h[Yj=K?_d#
fkj$Ki_d]j^_ic[j^eZ"h[ikbjie\iY[dWh_eidejo[ji_ckbWj[ZYWdX[YWbYkbWj[Z
m_j^j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$7\j[hmWhZi"j^[h[ikbjlWh_WXb[i_dZ_YWjehie\WbbYWb#
YkbWj[ZWbj[hdWj_l[iWh[[lWbkWj[ZXoj^[[lWbkWj_edikX#ioij[cWYYehZ_d]jeckb#
j_fb[ eX`[Yj_l[ fh[\[h[dY[i$ J^[i[ fh[\[h[dY[i h[ikbj \hec j^[eX`[Yj_l[ ikX#ioi#
j[cfheY[ii_d]ademb[Z][#XWi[Z_d\ehcWj_edWXekjj^[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i
eX`[Yj_l[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"m[_]^ji"[jY$Wbieif[Y_\_[Z_dj^[=K?Xoj^[ki[h$<_#
dWbbo"\eh[WY^cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[Wie#YWbb[ZZ[]h[[e\\kb\_bc[djm_bbX[Wi#
i_]d[Zje[WY^cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l["fbkiWd[lWbkWj_ede\j^[jejWbkj_b_joWiW
c[Wikh[e\fh[\[h[dY[e\WdWbj[hdWj_l[$
È
$ECISIONÈ3PACE
J^[Z[Y_i_edifWY[e\j^[:IIYedjW_diZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[iWdZijWj[lWh_WXb[i
Z[\_d[Z Xo if[Y_\o_d] j^[ hWd][ e\ lWbk[i e\ j^[ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i [$]$
j^_dd_d] ]hWZ[ WdZ j^[ [dl_hedc[djWb ijWj[i [$]$ i_j[ YedZ_j_edi" jh[[ if[Y_[i
Yecfei_j_ed%]hemj^ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi X[\eh[ cWdW][c[dj ef[hWj_edi$ J^[ Ykh#
h[dj:IIl[hi_ed_dj[]hWj[ij^[\ebbem_d]Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ih[]WhZ_d]_dj[hc[Z_#
Wj[j^_dd_d]iWdZ\_dWbYkjj_d]0j^_dd_d]jof["j^_dd_d]\h[gk[dYoWdZj^_dd_d]
]hWZ["Wim[bbWijof[WdZ_dj[di_joe\\_dWbYkjj_d]$J^[j[cfehWbWffb_YWj_ede\
j^[i[lWh_WXb[icWoX[Z[\_d[ZZ_\\[h[djboWYYehZ_d]jelWh_WXb[j^_dd_d]iY^[c[i$
:[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ih[\[hh_d]jeijWdZh[][d[hWj_edY^e_Y[e\jh[[if[Y_[i"jof[e\
h[][d[hWj_edm_bbX[_dj[]hWj[Z_djeW\kjkh[:IIl[hi_ed$<khj^[hceh["Wi[je\
cWdW][c[djYedijhW_dji"ikY^Wij^[cWn_ckcj^_dd_d]lebkc[f[h^[YjWh[WdZ
f[h_eZ"YWdX[Z[\_d[Z$
J^[ _d_j_Wb [dl_hedc[djWb ijWj[ h[ikbji \hec i_j[ WdZ ijWdZ ijhkYjkh[ WdZ _i
_Z[dj_\_[ZXoWi[je\Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YijWj[lWh_WXb[i$I_j[YedZ_j_ediWh[Y^WhWYj[h#
_i[ZXoi[l[hWbif[Y_\_YWj_edie\Yb_cWj[WdZie_b"ikY^Wi\eh[ij]hemj^h[]_ed"fh[#
Y_f_jWj_ed"ie_bdkjh_[djYedj[dj"ibef["[nfeikh["[jY$J^[fhef[hj_[ie\j^[_d_j_Wb
('. #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
&IGÈÈ$YNAMICSÈOFÈCHAR
ACTERISTICÈINDICATORSÈOFÈFOR
ESTÈSTANDÈDYNAMICSÈSIMULAT
EDÈWITHÈTHEÈGROWTHÈSIMULA
TORÈ3),6!ÈÈANDÈUSEDÈFORÈ
EVALUATINGÈMULTI
CRITERIAÈOB
JECTIVEÈFULFILMENTÈ)NÈTHEÈCASEÈ
OFÈAÈ
YEAR
OLDÈMIXEDÈSTANDÈ
OFÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈANDÈCOM
MONÈBEECHÈ ÈWITHÈTHEÈ
MANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈ
NOÈTHINNINGÈMODERATEÈORÈ
STRONGÈTHINNINGÈFROMÈABOVEÈ
APPLIEDÈTHEÈFIGUREÈDISPLAYSÈ
THEÈTEMPORALÈDYNAMICSÈOFÈ
GROWINGÈSTOCKÈHEIGHTDI
AMETERÈHGDG ÈRATIOÈVERTI
CALÈSTRUCTUREÈASÈEXPRESSEDÈ
BYÈTHEÈSPECIESÈPROFILEÈINDEXÈ
ANDÈNETÈRETURNÈFROMÈTIMBERÈ
SALESÈCALCULATEDÈFROMÈAVER
AGEÈ'ERMANÈTIMBERÈPRICESÈ
BETWEENÈÈANDÈ
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH ('/
ijWdZeh[dj[hfh_i[ikX#kd_jWh[Z[dej[ZXojh[[b_ijiehYWdX[Z[iYh_X[ZXoj^[
W]]h[]Wj[ZlWh_WXb[ijh[[if[Y_[i"ijWdZijhkYjkh["W][WdZW][ijhkYjkh[$?\_d\eh#
cWj_edWXekjWfWhj_YkbWh[dl_hedc[djWbijWj[YWddejX[fhel_Z[Zm_j^Y[hjW_d#
jo"[WY^ijWj[lWh_WXb[YWdWbieX[if[Y_\_[Zm_j^_jiZ[]h[[e\Y[hjW_djom_j^_dj^[
_dj[hlWbQ&"'S"m^[h['3Y[hjW_d"&3jejWbbokdY[hjW_djeX[fheY[ii[ZXo\kppo
_d\[h[dY[j[Y^d_gk[im_j^_dj^[[lWbkWj_edikX#ioij[c$
È
/BJECTIVEÈ3YSTEM
k_3ªO3ª;ÕH
m_j^
((& #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
ª7;';'n"ª7;';'n"¾ª7;';'n
' ( c
¾
¾
ª;3
ª;7d;dn"ª;7d;dn"¾ª;7d;dn
' ( c
WdZ
a
q
ª7;`3 [nij"ªt
7 [nijr[;
a
s
m^[h[[nij_ij^[lWbk[e\h[ikbjlWh_WXb[;`e\cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[n"ijhW#
jkciWdZj_c[jWdZª7;`_ij^[c[cX[hi^_f\kdYj_edZ[dej_d]j^[c[cX[hi^_fe\
a
lWbk[i[nijjej^[\kppoi[j7a$?dj^[[nWcfb[e\j^[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[ijWdZ
ijWX_b_jo"<_]$''$)i^emiWiY^[c[e\W\kppo_d\[h[dY[ioij[cjhWdi\ehc_d]Yh_if
_dfkj _d\ehcWj_ed je \kppo i[ji" fheY[ii_d] j^[c _d W hkb[ XWi[ WdZ YWbYkbWj_d]
_d\ehcWj_ededj^[Z[]h[[e\eX`[Yj_l[\kb\_bc[dj$J^[[\\[Yjie\Y^Wd][Z_dfkji
WdZm[_]^jicWoX[WdWboi[Zhkb[Xohkb[Wim[bbWiXofbejj_d]j^[\kppo_d\[h[dY[
]hWf^$<_]kh[''$*Z_ifbWoij^[i_ckbWj[ZZodWc_Yie\eX`[Yj_l[\kb\_bc[dje\j^[
cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[ij_cX[hfheZkYj_edYecc[hY_Wb[\\_Y_[dYo"ijWdZijWX_b#
_joWdZX_eZ_l[hi_jo_dj^[[nWcfb[e\Wc_n[ZifhkY[ÄX[[Y^ijWdZWdZj^[cWd#
W][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iÈdej^_dd_d]É"ÈceZ[hWj[ÉehÈijhed]j^_dd_d]\hecWXel[É$7Y#
YehZ_d]jej^[_dZ_YWjehlWh_WXb[Èd[jh[jkhdÉ"_dj^[\_hiji_ckbWj_edf[h_eZiYec#
c[hY_Wb [\\_Y_[dYo e\ j_cX[h fheZkYj_ed _i ]h[Wj[ij m_j^ ijhed] j^_dd_d]$ IjWdZ
ijWX_b_jo _i Wbie X[ij m_j^ ijhed] j^_dd_d]$M_j^ de j^_dd_d]" X_eZ_l[hi_jo i^_\ji
\hec X[d[\_Y_Wb je WZl[hi[ lWbk[i _d j^[ bed] hkd1 ijhed] j^_dd_d] \hec WXel[
i^emij^[effei_j[X[^Wl_ekh$
È
%VALUATION
M_j^_dj^[[lWbkWj_edikX#ioij[c"cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWh[[lWbkWj[ZWY#
YehZ_d]jej^[_hZ[]h[[e\eX`[Yj_l[\kb\_bc[dj$J^[jejWbkj_b_joKJ\eh[WY^cWd#
W][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[YWdX[Z[j[hc_d[Z\hecj^[ki[h#Z[\_d[ZeX`[Yj_l[m[_]^ji
W_WdZj^[eX`[Yj_l[#h[\[hh_d]fWhj_Wbkj_b_jo K_nXoWZZ_j_l[kj_b_jo\kdYj_edi
FkaaWbWWdZC__dW'//-0
p
3
KJn3 W_K_n
_3'
J^[ jejWb kj_b_jo Wbbemi YecfWh_ied e\ j^[ Wbj[hdWj_l[i WdZ hWda_d] WYYehZ#
_d]jej^[_hfh[\[h[dY[$?\j^[ki[hfh[\[hi"j^[:IIYWdWbj[hdWj_l[boe\\[hj^[X[ij
cWdW][c[dj efj_ed eh W i[j e\ feii_Xb[ Wbj[hdWj_l[i iehj[Z Xo eX`[Yj_l[ \kb\_b#
c[dj$J^[fWhj_Wbkj_b_joK_nh[\[hh_d]jeWi_d]kbWheX`[Yj_l[cWoX[h[fh[i[dj#
[ZXoj^[m[_]^j[ZWl[hW][e\ikX#kj_b_j_[ik_jif[h]hemj^f[h_eZjWdZijhWjkci
;g$''$+0
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH (('
&IGÈÈ&UZZYÈINFERENCEÈSCHEMEÈFORÈTHEÈMANAGEMENTÈOBJECTIVEÈSTANDÈSTABILITYÈ!BOVEÈ&UZZYÈ
SETSÈOFÈINPUTÈVARIABLESÈHDÈRATIOÈANDÈCROWNÈLENGTHTREEÈHEIGHTÈRATIOÈ)NPUTÈVALUESÈAREÈCALCULAT
EDÈWITHÈTHEÈRULEÈSYSTEMÈCENTRE ÈANDÈRESULTÈINÈCHARACTERISTICÈDEGREESÈOFÈOBJECTIVEÈFULFILMENTÈASÈ
SHOWNÈBYÈAÈSURFACEÈPLOTÈFUZZYÈINFERENCEÈGRAPHÈBELOW
((( #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
&IGÈÈ$YNAMICSÈOFÈOB
JECTIVEÈFULFILMENTÈOFÈTHEÈMAN
AGEMENTÈOBJECTIVESÈTIM
BERÈPRODUCTIONÈCOMMER
CIALÈEFFICIENCY ÈSTANDÈSTABILI
TYÈANDÈBIODIVERSITYÈEVALUATEDÈ
WITHÈ$33È3),6!È3UPPORTÈ2E
SULTSÈREFERÈTOÈTHEÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈ
AÈSPRUCE
BEECHÈMIXEDÈSTANDÈ
ANDÈTHEÈMANAGEMENTÈALTER
NATIVESÈNOÈTHINNINGÈMODER
ATEÈORÈSTRONGÈTHINNINGÈFROMÈ
ABOVEÈAPPLIEDÈASÈPRESENTEDÈ
ABOVEÈ&IGÈ
jdic
'
3 3 3 3
K_n3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ X Y Õk nm_j^k_jin¨Z_i
Xj Yij3j'j i3i' i _ji
m^[h[ Z_i _i j^[ bem[h b_c_j e\ ikX#kj_b_jo k_ji YedijhW_dj" WdZ Xj WdZ Yi Wh[
m[_]^ji$
JWXb[''$(i^emij^[h[ikbjie\Wckbj_#Yh_j[h_W[lWbkWj_ede\j^[cWdW][c[dj
Wbj[hdWj_l[ÈceZ[hWj[j^_dd_d]\hecWXel[ÉWjijhWjkcWdZ[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bi$J^[
h[ikbjiWh[]_l[d\eh\_l[Z_\\[h[djW][ijhWjWe\c_n[ZijWdZi\hecDehmWoifhkY[
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH (()
WdZYeccedX[[Y^$J^[h[ikbjiWbieh[\[hjej^[ijhWjWÉiifWj_Wb[nj[di_edWj[ijWj[
b[l[b$>[dY["_dj^_i[nWcfb[Wd_Z[Wb[ijWj[m_j^[gkWbboi_p[ZijhWjW_iWiikc[Z$
<_]kh[''$+fh[i[djij^[h[if[Yj_l[h[ikbjiYecfWh_d]i[l[hWbijhWjWZ_\\[h[d#
j_Wj[ZXoW][(&Ä'&&o[WhiWdZjh[[if[Y_[iYecfei_j_edfkh[DehmWoifhkY[
WdZDehmWoifhkY[ÄYeccedX[[Y^c_n[ZijWdZi"WdZj^h[[cWdW][c[djWbj[h#
dWj_l[idej^_dd_d]"ceZ[hWj[WdZijhed]j^_dd_d]\hecWXel[$
JWXb[''$)Z_ifbWoih[ikbjiW]]h[]Wj[ZWj[ijWj[b[l[b$J^[fh[i[dj[Zh[ikbjih[#
\[hjejmeZ_\\[h[dja_dZie\[ijWj[i"ed[Zec_dWj[ZXofkh[DehmWoifhkY[ijWdZi"
j^[ej^[hXoifhkY[ÄX[[Y^c_n[ZijWdZi$<ehXej^[ijWj[i"WdZm_j^j^[]_l[deX#
`[Yj_l[iÉm[_]^j_d]"^_]^[ijjejWbkj_b_j_[iWh[WY^_[l[Zm_j^ijhed]j^_dd_d]$>em#
[l[h" m_j^ fkh[ ifhkY[" [ijWj[ Z_\\[h[dY[i X[jm[[d j^[ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i
Wh[dejl[hobWh][$
J^[ :II Yecfh_i[i jme h[b[lWdj ifWj_Wb b[l[bi e\ i_bl_YkbjkhWb Z[Y_i_ed ikf#
fehj0j^[ijWdZb[l[behijhWjkcb[l[b"edj^[ed[^WdZ"_iY^WhWYj[h_i[ZXoWckb#
j_#Yh_j[h_W[lWbkWj_ede\Wbj[hdWj_l[ijWdZ%ijhWjkcjh[Wjc[djZ[Y_i_edij^_dd_d]
jof[WdZ_dj[di_jo"fbWdj_d]"[jY$$<eh[ijijWdZij^WjWh[YecfWhWXb[WYYehZ_d]je
i_j["jh[[if[Y_[iYecfei_j_ed"Z[l[befc[djijWj[WdZj^[b_a[Wh[YecX_d[Z_dje
[dj[hfh_i[ikX#kd_jiijhWjW1:khia(&&&jem^_Y^j^[:IIm_bbWffboj^[iWc[
cWdW][c[djiY^[c[iWdZh[ikbj_d]_dZ_YWjehlWbk[i$JWXb[''$*]_l[ij^[Yh_j[h_W
WdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_YlWbk[i\ehijhWjWZ[\_d_j_edYbWii_\_[ZXojh[[if[Y_[iYecfei_#
j_edWdZijWdZW][$
J^[[dj[hfh_i[ehh[]_edWbb[l[b"edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"h[gk_h[iWd[ijWj[#eh_[d#
jWj[ZijhWj[]oe\\eh[ijcWdW][c[djWYj_l_j_[ih[bWj_d]jej^[ifWj_e#j[cfehWbeh#
Z[he\WYj_edi$Je_Z[dj_\oj^_iijhWj[]o"WdWffhefh_Wj[YecX_dWj_ede\ijWdZ%ijhW#
4ABLEÈÈ%VALUATIONÈRESULTSÈOFÈOBJECTIVEÈFULFILMENTÈATÈSTRATUMÈLEVELÈACCORDINGÈTOÈTHEÈOBJEC
TIVESÈ@TIMBERÈPRODUCTIONÈ@STANDÈSTABILITYÈANDÈ@BIODIVERSITYÈINÈTHEÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈAÈSPRUCE
BEECHÈ
MIXEDÈSTANDÈWITHÈMODERATEÈTHINNINGÈFROMÈABOVEÈAPPLIEDÈANDÈFIVEÈSTRATAÈOFÈDIFFERENTÈAGEÈPRE
SENTEDÈABOVEÈSIMULATIONÈWITHÈNATURALÈREGENERATIONÈSIMULATIONÈPERIODÈÈYEARSÈSEEÈ&IGÈ È
&ORÈAGGREGATIONÈATÈESTATEÈLEVELÈTHEÈOBJECTIVE
REFERRINGÈRESULTSÈAREÈWEIGHTEDÈBYÈTHEÈSTRATASÈSPA
TIALÈEXTENSIONÈ%QÈ
&IGÈÈ %VALUATIONÈ RESULTSÈ OFÈ OBJECTIVEÈ FULFILMENTÈ REGARDINGÈ TIMBERÈ PRODUCTIONÈ STANDÈ STA
BILITYÈANDÈBIODIVERSITYÈANDÈFIVEÈSTRATAÈOFÈDIFFERENTÈAGEÈÈÈÈÈANDÈÈYEARSÈOLD È5PPERÈ
GRAPHSÈREPRESENTÈMIXEDÈSTRATAÈFROMÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈANDÈCOMMONÈBEECHÈ ÈWITHÈNOÈTHIN
NINGÈLEFT ÈANDÈMODERATEÈTHINNINGÈFROMÈABOVEÈRIGHT ÈAPPLIEDÈSEEÈ&IGSÈÈANDÈ È,OWERÈ
GRAPHSÈSHOWÈRESULTSÈINÈTHEÈCASESÈOFÈAÈSPRUCE
BEECHÈMIXEDÈSTRATUMÈWITHÈSTRONGÈTHINNINGÈFROMÈ
ABOVEÈ LEFT È ANDÈ AÈ PUREÈ .ORWAYÈ 3PRUCEÈ STRATUMÈ WITHÈ MODERATEÈ THINNINGÈ FROMÈ ABOVEÈ RIGHT È
%ACHÈSIMULATIONÈCALCULATEDÈWITHÈNATURALÈREGENERATIONÈSIMULATIONÈPERIODÈÈA
jkc#b[l[biY[dWh_ei_ifheY[ii[ZWj[ijWj[b[l[b$J^[b_da_d]e\Xej^b[l[bie\Z[Y_#
i_edikffehj_iWYYecfb_i^[ZXoj^[kj_b_jo\kdYj_edii^emdWXel[;g$''$+$8[d#
[\_Y_Wb WdZ WZl[hi[ Yed\b_Yj_d] kj_b_j_[i f[h ijhWjkc WdZ f[h_eZ cWo j^[h[\eh[
ÈYecf[diWj[É[WY^ej^[h_dj_c[WdZifWY[$9ecf[diWj_edi_dj^_ih[if[YjcWoX[
Z[iYh_X[ZWijhWZ[#e\\iX[jm[[dYed\b_Yj_d]kj_b_j_[iZ[f[dZ_d]edj^[ki[hÉifh[\#
[h[dY[im[_]^ji$
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH ((+
4ABLEÈÈ%VALUATIONÈRESULTSÈOFÈOBJECTIVEÈFULFILMENTÈATÈESTATEÈLEVELÈACCORDINGÈTOÈTHEÈOBJECTIVESÈ
@TIMBERÈ PRODUCTIONÈ @STANDÈ STABILITYÈ ANDÈ @BIODIVERSITYÈ ANDÈ THEÈ MANAGEMENTÈ ALTERNATIVESÈ NOÈ
THINNINGÈMODERATEÈTHINNINGÈANDÈSTRONGÈTHINNINGÈFROMÈABOVEÈ2ESULTSÈAREÈSHOWNÈINÈTHEÈEXAM
PLEÈOFÈANÈESTATEÈCONSISTINGÈOFÈFIVEÈSPRUCEnBEECHÈMIXEDÈSTRATAÈOFÈDIFFERENTÈAGEÈPRESENTEDÈABOVEÈ
SEEÈ4ABLEÈÈANDÈ&IGÈ ÈANDÈINÈTHEÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈAÈRESPECTIVEÈESTATEÈCONSISTINGÈOFÈPUREÈ.OR
WAYÈSPRUCEÈSTRATAÈSIMULATIONÈWITHÈNATURALÈREGENERATIONÈSIMULATIONÈPERIODÈÈYEARS
È -ANAGEMENTÈÈ /BJECTIVES
È ALTERNATIVEÈ 4IMBERÈÈ 3TANDÈÈ "IODIVERSITYÈ 4OTALÈ
È È PRODUCTIONÈ STABILITYÈ È UTILITY
È È 7EIGHTINGÈ
3PRUCEnBEECHÈ
MIXEDÈESTATEÈ .OÈTHINNINGÈ È È È
0UREÈ.ORWAYÈ
SPRUCEÈESTATEÈ .OÈTHINNINGÈ È È È
È
/PTIMISATION
J^[kj_b_jo\kdYj_edifh[i[dj[ZWXel[m[h[_dj[]hWj[Z_djeWdefj_c_iWj_edWb#
]eh_j^c^[kh_ij_YJWXkI[WhY^WffheWY^$8oj^_ic[Wdi"j^[:II_iWXb[je_Z[d#
j_\ocWj^[cWj_YWbboefj_cWbcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iÄWjijWdZb[l[bWim[bbWiWj
[ijWj[b[l[bÄm_j^_dWi^ehjj_c[$JWXkI[WhY^mWi_djheZkY[ZWiW^[kh_ij_Yef#
j_c_iWj_edWb]eh_j^cjeiebl[fWYa_d]fheXb[ciikY^Wij^[ÈadWfiWYaehick]#
]b[hÉifheXb[cÉ:eciY^a[[jWb$'//,$9^Wd]_d]WZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[m_j^_dj^[
efj_c_iWj_edfheY[Zkh[[$]$fkjj_d]WdeX`[Yj_djeehjWa_d]_jekje\j^[adWf#
iWYa i[ji j^_i fWhj_YkbWh WYj_ed jWXk WdZ WZZi _j je W jWXk b_ij \eh W fh[Z[\_d[Z
j_c[ifWdjWXkZkhWj_ed$J^_ic[Wdij^Wjj^_iWYj_edYWddejX[YWhh_[Zekjeh
h[l_i[Zkdj_bj^[dkcX[he\_j[hWj_edij[fi[nY[[Zij^[jWXkZkhWj_ed$
J^_ifheY[Zkh[mWiWffb_[Zjej^[fheXb[ce\efj_c_i_d]\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj
Wbj[hdWj_l[i$>[h["i[l[hWbZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i[$]$j^_dd_d]jof["j^_dd_d]]hWZ[
[n_ijm^_Y^cWoX[Wffb_[ZjeW\eh[ijWjZ_\\[h[djj_c[f[h_eZiWim[bbWijeZ_\#
\[h[dj[dj[hfh_i[ijhWjW$<_]kh[''$,]hWf^_YWbboZ_ifbWoij^[JWXkI[WhY^efj_c_#
iWj_ediY^[c[_cfb[c[dj[Z_dj^[:II$Efj_c_iWj_edh[\[hijeWYecX_dWj_ede\
Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i"m^_Y^cWoX[[nfh[ii[ZXoWZ[Y_i_edjh[[$?df[h_eZ'WijhW#
((, #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
4ABLEÈÈ #RITERIAÈ ANDÈ CHARACTERISTICÈ VALUESÈ FORÈ STRATUMÈ DEFINITIONÈ CLASSIFIEDÈ BYÈ STANDÈ STAGEÈ
ANDÈAGEÈANDÈSHAREÈOFÈTHEÈTREEÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITIONÈ3PRÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈ&IRÈSILVERÈFIRÈ$GLÈ$OUG
LASÈFIRÈ"CHÈCOMMONÈBEECHÈ/AKÈSESSILEÈOAKÈ-PLÈCOMMONÈMAPLEÈ3YCAMORE È!SHÈCOMMONÈASHÈ
%LMÈMOUNTAINÈELMÈWYCH
nÈ &INALÈCUTTINGÈÈ
È REGENERATIONÈ È !LLÈSPECIESÈ n
jkcÉi_d_j_WbijWj[cWoX[Y^Wd][ZXoWi[b[Yj[Zj^_dd_d]jof[WdZWi[b[Yj[Zj^_d#
d_d]]hWZ[$?df[h_eZ(j^[ijhWjkcÉih[ikbj_d]ijWj[W]W_dcWoX[Y^Wd][ZXoW
i[b[Yj[Zj^_dd_d]jof[WdZWi[b[Yj[Zj^_dd_d]]hWZ[WdZieed$M_j^j^_ifheY[#
Zkh["j^[dkcX[he\feii_Xb[cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iYWd[Wi_boX[YWbYkbWj[ZWi
\ebbemi;g$''$,0
df
Di3 n_
_3'
m^[h[Di_ij^[dkcX[he\feii_Xb[cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[if[hijhWjkc"n__i
j^[dkcX[he\ijW][ie\j^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i"d_ij^[dkcX[he\Z[Y_i_edlWh_W#
Xb[iWdZf_ij^[dkcX[he\f[h_eZi$
?dYWi[e\YedijhW_d[ZWbj[hdWj_l[i[$]$dej^_dd_d]_cfb_[ideZ_\\[h[dj_Wj_ed
WYYehZ_d]jej^_dd_d]]hWZ[";g$''$,h[WZiWi\ebbemi0
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH ((-
d df
Di3 nk"_! nY"`
_3'`3'
m^[h[nk"__ij^[dkcX[he\Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ijW][im_j^kdYedijhW_d[ZcWd#
W][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWdZnY"`_ij^[dkcX[he\Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ijW][im_j^Yed#
ijhW_d[ZcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i$
J^[efj_c_iWj_edWb]eh_j^cfheY[[ZiWi\ebbemi0\_hij"WhWdZecboY^ei[deh
fh[Z[\_d[Z_d_j_Wbiebkj_edQWbj[hdWj_l[._dj^[[nWcfb[Z[dej_d]ceZ[hWj[i[#
b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]_df[h_eZi'WdZ(S_iYWbYkbWj[Zm_j^j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehÄeh
jWa[d\hecWijeh[Z[nWcfb[_dj^[ZWjWXWi[ÄWdZ[lWbkWj[ZXoj^[:IIh[\[hh_d]
jefh[i[b[Yj[ZeX`[Yj_l[i$7\j[hmWhZi"j^_iiebkj_ed_ii[jjWXkm_j^_dj^[jWXkb_ij
\ehWfh[Z[\_d[Zj_c[ifWdjWXkZkhWj_ed"Zkh_d]m^_Y^j^_iiebkj_edYWddejX[
i[b[Yj[ZW]W_d$?d_j[hWj_edij[f'"j^[iebkj_edid[_]^Xekh_d]j^[_d_j_Wbiebkj_ed
Wh[YWbYkbWj[ZWdZ[lWbkWj[Z$7d[_]^Xekh_d]iebkj_ed_iY^WhWYj[h_i[ZXoY^Wd]#
[i_dedboed[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[_dj^[m^eb[Z[Y_i_edjh[[[$]$Y^Wd]_d]j^[j^_d#
d_d]]hWZ[_df[h_eZ($J^[Wbj[hdWj_l[[lWbkWj[ZX[ijQWbj[hdWj_l[/_d<_]$''$,S
_ii[b[Yj[ZWij^[WYjkWbiebkj_edWdZWbiei[jjWXk_dj^[jWXkb_ij$?d_j[hWj_edij[f
(" j^[ iebkj_edi d[_]^Xekh_d] j^[ X[ij Wbj[hdWj_l[ \hec j^[ fh[l_eki _j[hWj_ed
ij[fWh[YWbYkbWj[ZWdZ[lWbkWj[Z$D[_]^Xekh_d]iebkj_ediWh[j^ei[Wbj[hdWj_l[i
j^WjZ_\\[h\hecj^[fh[l_ekiX[ijiebkj_ededbo_ded[Y^Wd][ZZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[
[$]$j^_dd_d]jof[$7]W_d"j^[X[ijWbj[hdWj_l[_ii[b[Yj[ZWij^[WYjkWbiebkj_ed
WdZi[jjWXk$J^_ifheY[Zkh[Yedj_dk[ikdj_bWfh[Z[\_d[ZcWn_ckcdkcX[he\_j#
[hWj_edi_iWY^_[l[Z$J^[_Z[dj_\_[ZWbj[hdWj_l[m_j^j^[h[ikbj[lWbkWj[ZX[ijm_j^#
_dWbb_j[hWj_edij[fi_ijWa[dWij^[efj_cWbiebkj_ed$
?dj^[YWi[e\efj_c_i_d]cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWffb_[ZjeZ_\\[h[djijhWjW
e\Wd[ijWj["j^[WXel[fheY[Zkh[_i[nj[dZ[Z_dj^[\ebbem_d]cWdd[h$<eh[WY^
ijhWjkcWd_d_j_Wbiebkj_ed_iZ[\_d[Z[$]$XohWdZeci[b[Yj_edWdZi[jjWXk$?d
j^[\ebbem_d]_j[hWj_edij[fi"edboed[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[_dj^[m^eb[[ijWj[#b[l#
[bZ[Y_i_edjh[[YWdX[Wbj[h[Z$J^[h[\eh["j^[d[_]^Xekh_d]iebkj_edijeWm^eb[
i[je\_d_j_Wbiebkj_edih[\[hh_d]je[WY^ijhWjkcWh[YWbYkbWj[ZWdZ[lWbkWj[ZWj
[ijWj[b[l[b$J^WjWbj[hdWj_l[b[WZ_d]jej^[X[ij[lWbkWj_edWj[ijWj[b[l[b[$]$X[#
bed]_d]jeijhWjkc'_ii[b[Yj[ZWij^[WYjkWbiebkj_edWdZi[jjWXk$J^[cWdW][#
c[djWbj[hdWj_l[iWYYehZ_d]j^[ej^[hijhWjWh[cW_dkdY^Wd][Z$?dj^[d[nj_j[h#
Wj_edij[f"W]W_d"j^[m^eb[i[je\WYjkWbiebkj_edi_iYWbYkbWj[ZWdZieed$?dj^_i
YWi["j^[dkcX[he\feii_Xb[cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i_iYWbYkbWj[ZWi0
i
df
D;3 n_
_3'
eh
d dfi
D;3 nk"_! nY"`
_3'`3'
((. #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
&IGÈÈ4ABUÈ3EARCHÈOPTIMISATIONÈSCHEMEÈWITHINÈ$33È3),6!È3UPPORTÈ&IGUREÈSHOWSÈAÈDECI
SIONÈTREEÈWITHINÈFOURÈITERATIONÈSTEPSÈBYÈANÈOPTIMISATIONÈEXAMPLEÈREFERRINGÈTOÈAÈMANAGEMENTÈ
RECOMMENDATIONÈFORÈTWOÈ
YEARÈPERIODSÈTWOÈTHINNINGÈTYPESÈSELECTIVEÈTHINNINGÈFINALÈCROP
TREEÈ
THINNING ÈANDÈTHREEÈTHINNINGÈGRADESÈWEAKÈMODERATEÈSTRONG È3OLIDÈLINESÈINÈTHEÈDECISIONÈTREEÈ
REFERÈTOÈPOSSIBLEÈMANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈWITHINÈTHEÈTWOÈPERIODSÈ"OLDÈLINEÈINÈLEFT
HANDÈPICTUREÈ
SHOWSÈTHEÈRANDOMLYÈCHOSENÈINITIALÈSOLUTIONÈ;ALTERNATIVEÈ ÈMODERATEÈSELECTIVEÈTHINNINGÈINÈPERI
ODSÈÈANDÈ=È4HISÈSOLUTIONÈISÈCALCULATEDÈWITHÈ3),6!ÈÈANDÈEVALUATEDÈBYÈ$33ÈREFERRINGÈTOÈPRESE
LECTEDÈOBJECTIVESÈ!FTERWARDSÈTHISÈSOLUTIONÈISÈSETÈTABUÈWITHINÈTHEÈTABUÈLISTÈFORÈAÈPREDEFINEDÈTIMEÈ
SPANÈTABUÈDURATION ÈOFÈMOREÈTHANÈTHREEÈITERATIONSÈDURINGÈWHICHÈTHISÈSOLUTIONÈCANNOTÈBEÈSE
LECTEDÈAGAINÈ4HEÈTABUÈLISTÈREADSÈASÈFOLLOWSÈ@)NÈPERIODÈ ÈMODERATEÈSELECTIVEÈTHINNINGÈISÈSETÈTA
BUÈFIRSTÈLINE ÈINÈPERIODÈ ÈWITHÈMODERATEÈSELECTIVEÈTHINNINGÈINÈPERIODÈ ÈAPPLIEDÈMODERATEÈSE
È
È 4HEÈ$33È!PPROACH ((/
LECTIVEÈTHINNINGÈISÈSETÈTABUÈSECONDÈLINE È"LACKÈBOLDÈLINESÈINÈITERATIONÈÈDENOTEÈTHEÈNEIGHBOUR
INGÈSOLUTIONSÈNOWÈTOÈBEÈCALCULATEDÈANDÈEVALUATEDÈ4HEÈALTERNATIVEÈEVALUATEDÈBESTÈ ÈISÈSELECT
EDÈANDÈALSOÈSETÈTABUÈAFTERWARDSÈ)NÈITERATIONÈÈTHEÈNEIGHBOURINGÈSOLUTIONSÈOFÈALTERNATIVEÈ ÈAREÈ
CALCULATEDÈANDÈEVALUATEDÈBLACKÈBOLDÈLINES È!GAINÈTHEÈBESTÈALTERNATIVEÈISÈSELECTEDÈANDÈSETÈTABUÈ
WITHINÈTHEÈTABUÈLISTÈ4HISÈPROCEDUREÈCONTINUESÈUNTILÈTHEÈMAXIMUMÈNUMBERÈOFÈITERATIONSÈINÈTHISÈ
EXAMPLEÈMOREÈTHANÈTHREEÈITERATIONS ÈISÈACHIEVEDÈ4HEÈIDENTIFIEDÈALTERNATIVEÈWITHÈTHEÈRESULTÈEVAL
UATEDÈBESTÈWITHINÈALLÈITERATIONÈSTEPSÈISÈTAKENÈASÈTHEÈOPTIMALÈSOLUTION
()& #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
m^[h[D;_ij^[dkcX[he\feii_Xb[cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[if[h[ijWj[WdZi
_ij^[dkcX[he\ijhWjW$
J^[9FKj_c[h[gk_h[Zjeiebl[Wif[Y_\_YfheXb[cZ[f[dZiedj^[dkcX[he\
Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i"ijhWjWWdZj_c[f[h_eZijeX[Yedi_Z[h[Z$Fh[l_ekiboijeh[Z
iebkj_edi_dj^[ZWjWXWi[m_bbibemZemdj^[ioij[c$?\Wffhefh_Wj[iebkj_ediYWd
X[\ekdZ_dj^[ZWjWXWi["9FKj_c[\ehefj_c_iWj_edcWoedbojWa[W\[mi[YedZi$
?\j^[h[Wh[defh[l_ekiboYWbYkbWj[Ziebkj_edi"Wbj[hdWj_l[i^Wl[jeX[i_ckbWj[ZXo
j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehWdZ[lWbkWj[ZXoj^[:II_dj^[cWdd[hZ[iYh_X[ZWXel[$?d
j^_iYWi["9FKj_c[cWo_dYh[Wi[Xoi[l[hWbc_dkj[iehbed][h$J^_i_i[if[Y_Wbbo
jhk[\ehj^[i_ckbWj_ed%[lWbkWj_ede\oekd]ijWdZi%ijhWjWYedi_ij_d]e\cWdo_dZ_#
l_ZkWbjh[[i"j^[]hemj^i_ckbWj_ede\m^_Y^_i\W_hboj_c[#Yedikc_d]$
È
$EMONSTRATION
J^[:IImWij[ij[Zm_j^_dl[djehoZWjW\hecekhfhWYj_YWbfWhjd[hi_dehZ[h
je[nWc_d[j^[fbWki_X_b_joWdZi[di_j_l_joe\j^[:IIh[ikbji$7iWd[nWcfb["ZWjW
\hecJ^[9ekdjÉi7hYe#P_dd[X[h]<eh[ij;dj[hfh_i[i"=[hcWdo"_dj^[\eh[ijZ_i#
jh_Yje\Adp_d]"Wh[fh[i[dj[Z$J^[\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj_ibeYWj[ZedW^_bbi_Z[WjWdWb#
j_jkZ[e\)*+Ä*'&cWXel[i[Wb[l[b_dj^[h[]_edÈD_[Z[hXWoh_iY^[iJ[hj_h^]#
[bbWdZÉ =[hcWd \eh[ij ]hemj^ Z_ijh_Yj &/$'($&/ _d iekj^#[Wij[hd 8WlWh_W" WdZ
Yel[hiWdWh[We\+)+^W$J^[ie_biWh[iWdZobeWcic[Z_kcehfhe\ekdZXhemd
[Whj^iehb[ii_li"fWhj_Wbbo]b[o_Yie_bi$J^[WddkWbWl[hW][j[cf[hWjkh[_i-$+9
WdZj^[WddkWbWl[hW][fh[Y_f_jWj_ed_iWXekj.&&cc8Wo[hd#<ehij'//)$
<ehj[ij_d]j^[:II"i[l[hWb[dj[hfh_i[ikX#kd_jiijhWjWm[h[Z[\_d[ZWYYehZ#
_d]jej^[Yh_j[h_WWdZY^WhWYj[h_ij_YlWbk[ie\ijWdZW][WdZjh[[if[Y_[iYecfe#
i_j_edW\W_hbo[l[difb_je\Z[Y_ZkekiWdZYed_\[hekijh[[i"Wi]_l[d_dJWXb[''$*$
<eh i_cfb_\_YWj_ed" j^[i[ ijWdZi m[h[ h[fh[i[dj[Z Wi fkh[ WdZ c_n[Z ijWdZi e\
DehmWo ifhkY[ WdZ Yecced X[[Y^$ D[nj" lWh_eki cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i Wj
ijhWjW b[l[b m[h[ YWbYkbWj[Z m_j^ I?BL7 ($( WdZ [lWbkWj[Z Wj ijhWjkc WdZ [ijWj[
b[l[bi$J^[[lWbkWj[ZcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[ih[\[hjeW)&#o[Whi_ckbWj_edf[h_#
eZWdZj^[j^_dd_d]jof[idej^_dd_d]"j^_dd_d]\hecWXel[WdZX[bem"i[b[Yj_l[
WdZ \_dWb Yhef#jh[[ j^_dd_d]" m_j^ W ij[fm_i[ _dYh[Wi[Z j^_dd_d] ]hWZ[ '&&" .&
WdZ+&e\XWiWb#Wh[W]k_Z[Ykhl["WdZ\_dWbb_d[WhYkjj_d][gkWbYkjj_d]hWj[i
\eh[WY^Ykjj_d]f[h_eZkdj_bWijhWjkc_iYb[Wh#Ykj\ehebZ[hijWdZi4,&%/&o[Whi
ebZ$7]W_d"j^[cWdW][c[djiY[dWh_eim[h[i[b[Yj[Z_dWYYehZWdY[m_j^ekhfhWY#
j_YWbfWhjd[hiWdZWZZh[iij^[_hYkhh[djcWdW][c[djj[Y^d_gk[iehfej[dj_WbWb#
j[hdWj_l[i$J^[i[cWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[im[h[[lWbkWj[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[cWd#
W][c[djeX`[Yj_l[ie\j_cX[hfheZkYj_ed"X_eZ_l[hi_joWdZijWdZijWX_b_jo$
M_j^j^[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[iÈijWdZijWX_b_joÉWdZÈX_eZ_l[hi_joÉ"j^[h[ikbj#
_d]Z[]h[[ie\\kb\_bc[dji^emedboib_]^jZ_\\[h[dY[i\eh[WY^Wbj[hdWj_l[WjijhW#
jkcWdZ[ijWj[b[l[bi$?dj^[YWi[e\j_cX[hfheZkYj_edj^[h[_iWZ[Yh[Wi_d]fh[\#
[h[dY[e\j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[i\hecm[Waj^_dd_d]\hecWXel[je^[Wlo\_dWbYhefjh[[
j^_dd_d] IeZja[ [j Wb$ (&&*" dej i^emd ^[h[$ M_j^ oekd] ijWdZi *&%*+o[Whi
ebZ" j^[ eX`[Yj_l[iÈijWdZ ijWX_b_joÉ WdZÈX_eZ_l[hi_joÉ h[Y[_l[ ^_]^[h Z[]h[[i e\
\kb\_bc[dj j^Wd j^[ eX`[Yj_l[ Èj_cX[h fheZkYj_edÉ$ ?d j^[ YWi[ e\ ebZ[h ijWdZi
È $EMONSTRATION ()'
&IGÈÈ-APÈOFÈMANAGEMENTÈRECOMMENDATIONSÈFORÈDIFFERENTÈMANAGEMENTÈSTRATAÈACCORDINGÈ
TOÈ4ABLEÈÈANDÈAÈ
YEARÈPERIODÈAFTERÈFORESTÈINVENTORYINGÈBYÈTHEÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈINVENTORYÈDATAÈ
FROMÈTHEÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈ+UENZINGÈ4HEÈ#OUNTSÈ!RCO
:INNEBERGÈ&ORESTÈ%NTERPRISESÈ'ERMANY
,&%/&o[WhiebZ"j_cX[hfheZkYj_ed_iX[jj[h[lWbkWj[Zj^Wdj^[ej^[heX`[Yj_l[i$
<ehceijijhWjW"i[b[Yj_l[j^_dd_d]ceZ[hWj["ijhed]mWi\ekdZjeX[ij\kb\_bj^[
Z[i_h[Z eX`[Yj_l[i$ ?d j^[ YWi[ e\ oekd] ijWdZi 2(&%(+o[Whi ebZ" ][d[hWbbo de
j^_dd_d]"WdZ_dj^[YWi[e\ebZ[hijWdZi4,&%/&o[WhiebZ"\_dWbb_d[WhYkjj_d]
m[h[\ekdZjeX[efj_cWb$<_]kh[''$-i^emiWifWj_Wbh[fh[i[djWj_ede\j^[_Z[d#
j_\_[Zefj_cWbcWdW][c[dj\ehj^[\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjÉiijhWjW$
()( #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
J^[ :II h[ikbji m[h[ Yedi_Z[h[Z je X[ h[WiedWXb[ WdZ ik\\_Y_[djbo i[di_j_l[
m^[dYecfWh[Zm_j^ekhh[i[WhY^h[ikbjiedjh_Wbfbeji_d8WlWh_W$?dWZZ_j_ed"ekh
fhWYj_YWbfWhjd[hi`kZ][Zj^[:IIh[ikbjiWdZh[Yecc[dZWj_edijeYecfbom_j^
j^[_hfhWYj_YWb[nf[h_[dY[i_dj^[[nWc_d[Z\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yji$<khj^[hj[ijhkdiÄ\eh
[nWcfb[ i[di_j_l_jo WdWboi[i m_j^ _dl[djeho ZWjW \hec ekh fhWYj_YWb fWhjd[hi Ä
i^ekbZX[YWhh_[Zekj_dj^[\kjkh[_dehZ[hjei[WhY^\ehfej[dj_WbWdecWb_[iWdZ
jej^ehek]^bolWb_ZWj[j^[:II$
È
$ISCUSSION
:III_blWIkffehjh[fh[i[djiWfhejejof[\ehWZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[c_d\eh#
[ijho$CWdoceZ_\_YWj_ediWdZ_cfhel[c[djie\Z[jW_bii[[cjeX[feii_Xb[WdZ
d[Y[iiWhoX[\eh[_jYWdX[ki[Z_dfhWYj_Y[$>em[l[h"\ehki_jmWi_cfehjWdjje
i^emj^[fh_dY_fb[WdZj^[Z[i_]de\ikY^Wjeeb$?dj[ijhkdiWdZ\_hijWffb_YWj_edi
_cfbWki_Xb[h[ikbjim_bbX[Z[j[Yj[ZWdZYehh[Yj[Z_dWd_j[hWj_l[fheY[ii$<eh[n#
Wcfb["j^[hkb[ioij[c\ehijWdZijWX_b_jo^WijeX[j^ehek]^boh[l_i[Z$<khj^[hh[#
i[WhY^_id[Y[iiWhojecel[j^[ioij[c\hecWZ[cejeWjeeb\ehfhWYj_j_ed[hi$
J^[fh[i[dj[ZWffheWY^e\j^[:III_blWIkffehj\kb\_bij^[][d[hWbh[gk_h[#
c[dji e\ :II Xo ki_d] ZWjW WdZ ceZ[bi je _Z[dj_\o WdZ iebl[ i[c_#ijhkYjkh[Z
fheXb[ci[$]$8edYp[a[jWb$'/.'1P_cc[hcWdd'/.-$J^[:II[d^WdY[iijhW#
j[]_Y \eh[ij fbWdd_d] Xkj Ä Wi Z[cWdZ[Z Ä Ze[i dej h[fbWY[ cWdW][h_Wb `kZ][#
c[dj JkhXWd '//&$ J^[ fhel_Z[Z _d\ehcWj_ed YWd X[ _dj[hfh[j[Z [Wi_bo A[b#
b_d]'//'$J^[:II_iW_c[ZWjj^[fbWdd_d]e\c[Z_kc#WdZbed]#j[hccWdW][#
c[dj"WdZj^[h[\eh[ikffehjiZ[Y_i_ediYedY[hd_d]i_bl_Ykbjkh[WdZ\eh[ij[dj[h#
fh_i[ fbWdd_d]$ Feii_Xb[ ki[hi Wh[ \eh[ij fbWdd[hi WdZ \eh[ij [dj[hfh_i[ cWdW]#
[hi$8o_dj[]hWj_d]WdZYecX_d_d]]hemj^i_ckbWjehim_j^ZWjWXWi[i"[lWbkWj_ed
WdZefj_c_iWj_edhekj_d[i"WdZcWa_d]ki[e\=?IWdZl_ikWb_iWj_edhekj_d[i"j^[
WffheWY^_dYehfehWj[iWbb#_cfehjWdjYecfed[djie\WÈ\kbb#i[hl_Y[É:IIWic[d#
j_ed[ZXoHWkiY^[h'///$?jYecfWh[i\WlekhWXbom_j^\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj:II
Z[l[bef[Z_dDehj^7c[h_YWCemh[h[jWb$'//-1HWkiY^[h'///$J^ei[:IIYWd
X[WhhWd][ZXoj^[_hifWj_WbWffb_YWX_b_joÄh[]_ed"[ijWj["fhe`[YjÄehXoj^[Wh#
[We\Z[Y_i_edikffehjYel[h[Z"[$]$i_ckbWj_ede\l[][jWj_edZodWc_Yi"[Yedec#
_YWdWboi_i"Z_ijkhXWdY[i_ckbWj_ed"l_ikWb_iWj_ed"[jY$IeZja[[jWb$(&&*$H[if[Y#
j_l[:II_dY[djhWb;khef[J^[[iWdZH_[Y^ij[_d[h(&&'1LWY_aWdZB[n[h(&&'1
CeiWdZbWdZ<[bX[hc[_[h(&&)m[h[ceijbo\ekdZjeX[_dWd[WhboijW][e\Z[#
l[befc[dj$Ki_d]_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehi_i[if[Y_Wbbo^[bf\kb\ehijhWjW
fbWdd_d]WdZ[dj[hfh_i[i_ckbWj_ed$IkY^i_ckbWjehi][d[hWj[j^[ceijWYYkhWj[
iebkj_edi"ki_d]j^[_dZ_l_ZkWb#jh[[_d\ehcWj_edfhel_Z[ZXo[dj[hfh_i[_dl[dje#
h_[iFh[jpiY^[jWb$'//.$
8o[dWXb_d]Wki[hje\_nfh[\[h[dY[i\ehi[l[hWbcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i"j^[
:II Wbbemi \eh W ckbj_#Yh_j[h_W [lWbkWj_ed e\ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i$ ?Z[dj_\_#
YWj_ede\j^[X[ijcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[h[ikbji\hecWYecX_d[ZfheY[Zkh[e\
[lWbkWj_ed WdZ efj_c_iWj_ed m_j^ Wd WZ`kij[Z ^[kh_ij_Y JWXk I[WhY^ Wb]eh_j^c$
;lWbkWj_edYecfh_i[i\kppo_d\[hh_d]ijhWj[]_[i"[dWXb_d]j^[fheY[ii_d]e\lW]k[#
boZ[\_d[Z[nf[hjademb[Z][P_cc[hcWdd'/.-"'//,$H[ikbj_d]kj_b_jolWbk[i
È 0ERSPECTIVES ())
f[hcWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[Wh[W]]h[]Wj[ZjejejWb[ijWj[kj_b_j_[i"i[hl_d]WijWh][j
\kdYj_edi\ehcWj^[cWj_YWbefj_c_iWj_ed$;lWbkWj_edh[ikbji]_l[dXoj^[:II^[bf
m_j^[ijWj[#b[l[bZ[Y_i_edi$>em[l[h"j^[:IIZe[idejed_jiemdZ_YjWj[Wdefj_#
ckcijhWj[]ojej^[Z[Y_i_edcWa[h$HWj^[h"_jWbbemij^[Z[Y_i_edcWa[hjei[b[Yj
j^[ceijik_jWXb[ijhWj[]o\hecWhWd][e\Wbj[hdWj_l[i$
È
0ERSPECTIVES
C[j^eZ_YWbj[ij_d]_idemYecfb[j["Xkjj^[:IIfhejejof[_idejo[j\kbbolWb#
_ZWj[Z$<khj^[hj[ij_d]m_j^_dl[djehoZWjW\hecekhfhWYj_YWbfWhjd[hi_iYkhh[dj#
boX[_d]YWhh_[Zekj$?dj^[\kjkh["j^[fh[i[dj[ZWffheWY^m_bbX[Z[l[bef[ZWdZ
WZlWdY[Z"\eh[nWcfb["_d_dj[]hWj_d]ceh[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ih[\[hh_d]jeh[][d#
[hWj_ed"fbWdj_d]"fhkd_d]"[jY$WdZ_dj[]hWj_d]\khj^[heX`[Yj_l[iWdZ_dZ_YWjeh
lWh_WXb[i[Yedec_Y"ijhkYjkhWb_dZ_YWjehi"[jY$$<khj^[hceh["_j_ifbWdd[ZjeYed#
l[hjj^[fhe]hWc_djeWijWdZ#Wbed[ie\jmWh[Ä_dZ[f[dZ[dje\j^[fhe]hWcc_d]
ie\jmWh[WdZj^[ef[hWj_d]ioij[cÄjeX[ki[ZXo\eh[ijcWdW][hiWdZfbWdd[hi
WdZ\eh[ZkYWj_edfkhfei[i$
J^[YecX_dWj_ede\i_ckbWjehi"[lWbkWj_edWdZefj_c_iWj_edWb]eh_j^ciWdZ
i[l[hWb l_ikWb_iWj_ed ioij[ci Wff[Whi je X[ jh[dZ#i[jj_d] \eh Z[Y_i_ed ikffehj
Wj[ijWj[b[l[bFh[jpiY^(&&)$IkY^_dj[]hWj_l[ioij[ciYWdh[l[Wbj^[eX`[Yj_l[
Yh_j[h_W WdZ fh[\[h[dY[i e\ Z[Y_i_ed cWa[hi" WdZ cWo ^_]^b_]^j Z[Y_i_ed fWj^#
mWoiWdZfeii_Xb[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djWbj[hdWj_l[i_dj^[bed]
hkd$J^[o[dWXb[fWhj_Y_fWj_ede\Wd_dj[h[ij[ZfkXb_Y_dj^[Z[Y_i_edfheY[ii[i
Fh[jpiY^(&&)1Fh[jpiY^[jWb$"j^_iLeb$WdZWbbemZ[XWj[el[h\kjkh[\eh[ijcWd#
W][c[djm_j^feb_j_Y_WdiWdZWiieY_Wj_edc[cX[hi"j^kifWl_d]j^[mWo\ehijhW#
j[]_YeX`[Yj_l[#eh_[djWj[Z\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[cWdW][c[dj$
2EFERENCES
"AMBERGÈ 'È #OENENBERGÈ !'È È "ETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHEÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSLEHREÈ 7I3O
+URZ
LEHRBàCHERÈ6AHLENÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
"AYERN
&ORSTÈ È &ORSTEINRICHTUNGSOPERATÈ !RCO
:INNEBERGÈ "AYERN
&ORSTÈ "AYERISCHEÈ &ORST
PLANUNGSÈ'MB(È-àNCHENÈÈPP
"ONCZEKÈ 2(È (OLSAPPLEÈ #7È 7HINSTONÈ !"È È &OUNDATIONSÈ OFÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMSÈ
!CADEMICÈ0RESSÈ.EWÈ9ORK
$OMSCHKEÈ7È+LEINÈ2È3CHOLLÈ!È È4AKTISCHEÈ4ABUSÈ4ABUÈ3EARCHÈ$URCHÈ6ERBOTEÈSCHNELLERÈ
OPTIMIERENÈCTÈn
$URSKâÈ*È È%INSATZÈVONÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSSIMULATORENÈFàRÈ"ESTANDÈ"ETRIEBÈUNDÈ'ROREGIONÈ
(ABILITATIONÈ4HESISÈ4ECHNISCHEÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ-àNCHEN
(ANEWINKELÈ-È È.EUAUSRICHTUNGÈDERÈ&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈALSÈSTRATEGISCHESÈ-ANAGEMENTINST
RUMENTÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈ n
*ANSSENÈ 2È È -ULTIOBJECTIVEÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ FORÈ ENVIRONMENTALÈ MANAGEMENTÈ +LUWERÈ
$ORDRECHTÈÈPP
()* #(!04%2È 7:[Y_i_edIkffehjIoij[c\ehCkbj_#9h_j[h_W<eh[ij;ijWj[FbWdd_d]
+ELLINGÈ!È È%NTSCHEIDUNGENÈUNDÈ%NTSCHEIDUNGSUNTERSTàTZUNGSSYSTEMEÈAUFÈDERÈBETRIEBLI
CHENÈ%BENEÈ"ERICHTÈ"ÈÈ)NSTITUTÈFàRÈ,ANDWIRTSCHAFTLICHEÈ"ETRIEBSLEHREÈDERÈ2HEINISCHENÈ
&RIEDRICHS
7ILHELM
5NIVERSITËTÈ"ONNÈ"ONNÈÈPP
,AUXÈ(È È%NTSCHEIDUNGSTHEORIEÈ'RUNDLAGENÈ(EIDELBERGERÈ,EHRTEXTEÈ7IRTSCHAFTSWISSEN
SCHAFTENÈ3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ(EIDELBERGÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
-AGÈ 7È È 'RUNDZàGEÈ DERÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSTHEORIEÈ 7I3T
4ACHENBàCHERÈ WIRTSCHAFTSWISSEN
SCHAFTLICHESÈ3TUDIUMÈ6AHLENÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
-#0&%È È'ENERALÈDECLARATIONSÈANDÈRESOLUTIONSÈADOPTEDÈATÈTHEÈ-INISTERIALÈ#ONFERENCESÈONÈ
THEÈ0ROTECTIONÈOFÈ&ORESTSÈINÈ%UROPEÈ3TRASBOURGÈn(ELSINKIÈn,ISBONÈÈ,IAISONÈ
5NITÈ6IENNAÈPÈ
-OSANDLÈ 2È &ELBERMEIERÈ "È È $ERÈ NEUEÈ $REIKLANGÈ IMÈ 7ALDBAUÈ «KOLOGIEÈ 3OZIOÚKONOMIEÈ
UNDÈ4ECHNOLOGIEÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
-OWRERÈ(4È"ARBERÈ+È#AMPBELLÈ*È#ROOKSTONÈ.È$AHMSÈ#È$AYÈ*È,AACKEÈ*È-ERZENICHÈ*È-IGH
TONÈ3È2AUCHSERÈ-È2EYNOLDSÈ+È4HOMPSONÈ*È4RENCHIÈ0È4WERYÈ-È È$ECISIONÈSUPPORTÈ
SYSTEMSÈFORÈECOSYSTEMÈMANAGEMENTÈANÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈEXISTINGÈSYSTEMSÈ2OCKYÈ-OUNTAINÈ
&ORESTÈANDÈ2ANGEÈ%XPERIMENTÈ3TATIONÈ53È$EPARTMENTÈOFÈ!GRICULTUREÈ&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈ&ORTÈ
#OLLINSÈ#OLORADOÈÈPP
0OWERÈ $*È È $ECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMSÈ RESOURCESÈ HTTPDSSRESOURCESCOMÈ ACCESSEDÈ È
!UGÈ
0RETZSCHÈ(È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSÈ0AREYÈ"ERLINÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ(È È3TRATEGISCHEÈ0LANUNGÈDERÈ.ACHHALTIGKEITÈAUFÈ&ORSTBETRIEBSEBENEÈ"EITRAGÈDERÈ
7ALDWACHSTUMSFORSCHUNGÈ&ORSTWISSENSCHAFTLÈ#ENTRALBLÈn
0RETZSCHÈ (È 3EIFERTÈ 3È È -ETHODENÈ ZURÈ 6ISUALISIERUNGÈ DESÈ 7ALDWACHSTUMSÈ &ORSTWISSEN
SCHAFTLÈ#ENTRALBLÈ n
0RETZSCHÈ(È+AHNÈ-ȽURSKâÈ*È È3TICHPROBENDATENÈFàRÈDIEÈ%NTWICKLUNGSPROGNOSEÈUNDÈDIEÈ
.UTZUNGSPLANUNGÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTZ$ERÈ7ALDÈn
0UKKALAÈ 4È -IINAÈ *È È !È METHODÈ FORÈ STOCHASTICÈ MULTIOBJECTIVEÈ OPTIMIZATIONÈ OFÈ STANDÈ
MANAGEMENTÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
2AUSCHERÈ(-È È%COSYSTEMÈMANAGEMENTÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈFORÈFEDERALÈFORESTSÈINÈTHEÈ5NITEDÈ
3TATESÈAÈREVIEWÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ n
2OMMELFANGERÈ(È È&UZZYÈDECISIONÈSUPPORT
SYSTEMÈ3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ(EIDELBERGÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈ
ÈPP
3ENÈ0È9ANGÈ*
"È È-ULTIPLEÈCRITERIAÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈINÈENGINEERINGÈDESIGNÈ3PRINGERÈ"ERLINÈ
(EIDELBERGÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
3ODTKEÈ 2È È %INÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSUNTERSTàTZUNGSSYSTEMÈ FàRÈ DENÈ :WISCHENFRUCHTANBAUÈ
+ONZEPTIONÈ %NTWICKLUNGÈ 6ALIDIERUNGÈ 0H$È 4HESISÈ #HRISTIAN
!LBRECHTSÈ 5NIVERSITYÈ OFÈ +IELÈ
ÈPPÈHTTPE
DISSUNI
KIELDEDISS?INDEXHTM
3ODTKEÈ2È3CHMIDTÈ-È&ABRIKAÈ-È.AGELÈ*ȽURSKâÈ*È0RETZSCHÈ(È È!NWENDUNGÈUNDÈ%INSATZÈ
VONÈ %INZELBAUMMODELLENÈ ALSÈ +OMPONENTENÈ VONÈ ENTSCHEIDUNGSUNTERSTàTZENDENÈ 3YSTE
MENÈFàRÈDIEÈSTRATEGISCHEÈ&ORSTBETRIEBSPLANUNGÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈ n
3PELLMANNÈ(È(ILLEBRANDÈ+È#ORNELIUSÈ0È È+ONZEPTÈZURÈ%RFASSUNGÈUNDÈ3ICHERUNGÈDERÈ.ACH
HALTIGKEITÈINÈMULTIFUNKTIONALÈGENUTZTENÈ7ËLDERNÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈn
4HEESÈ /È 2IECHSTEINERÈ $È È -ANAGEMENTÈ EINERÈ ZUKUNFTSFËHIGENÈ 7ALDNUTZUNGÈ $ASÈ 73,
&ORSCHUNGSPROGRAMMÈFàRÈDIEÈ#(
&ORSTBETRIEBEÈ&ORSCHUNGSZENTRUMÈFàRÈ7ALDÈ3CHNEEÈUNDÈ
,ANDSCHAFTÈHTTPWWWWSLCHPROGRAMMEWALDNUTZUNG
4URBANÈ%È È$ECISIONÈSUPPORTÈANDÈEXPERTÈSYSTEMSÈ-ACMILLANÈ.EWÈ9ORK
2EFERENCES ()+
6ACIKÈ (È ,EXERÈ -*È È !PPLICATIONÈ OFÈ AÈ SPATIALÈ DECISIONÈ SUPPORTÈ SYSTEMÈ INÈ MANAGINGÈ THEÈ
PROTECTIONÈ FORESTSÈ OFÈ 6IENNAÈ FORÈ SUSTAINEDÈ YIELDÈ OFÈ WATERÈ RESOURCESÈ &ORÈ %COLÈ -ANAGEÈ
n
6ONÈ 'ADOWÈ +È È 3TEUERUNGÈ UNDÈ !NALYSEÈ DERÈ 7ALDENTWICKLUNGÈ &ORSTWISSÈ #ENTRALBLÈ
n
:IMMERMANNÈ(
*È È&UZZYÈSETSÈDECISIONÈMAKINGÈANDÈEXPERTÈSYSTEMSÈ)NTERNATIONALÈSERIESÈINÈ
MANAGEMENTÈSCIENCEOPERATIONSÈRESEARCHÈ+LUWERÈ"OSTONÈÈPP
:IMMERMANNÈ(
*È È&UZZYÈSETÈTHEORYÈnÈANDÈITSÈAPPLICATIONSÈ+LUWERÈ$ORDRECHTÈÈPP
#(!04%2È ()-
4HEÈ5SEÈOFÈ4REEÈ-ODELSÈFORÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ
$ECISIONÈ-AKING
CWjj^_WiIY^c_Zj'"J^ecWi8YacWdd("@h][dDW][b)
!BSTRACTÈ)NÈTHEÈLASTÈDECADEÈ,OWERÈ3AXONYSÈFORESTÈPOLICYÈHASÈUNDERGONEÈAÈMAJORÈSHIFTÈFROMÈ
PUREÈSTANDSÈTOÈMIXED
SPECIESÈSTANDSÈ#ONSEQUENTLYÈTHEÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ3TATIONÈOFÈ,OWERÈ
3AXONYÈ.&6 ÈFOCUSEDÈITSÈRESEARCHÈONÈTHEÈCONSTRUCTIONÈOFÈAÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELÈ4HISÈGROWTHÈ
MODELÈ WASÈ INCORPORATEDÈ INTOÈ AÈ COMPUTERÈ SOFTWAREÈ PROGRAMÈ "7).0RO È WHICHÈ ALLOWSÈ FORÈ
FORESTÈGROWTHÈSIMULATIONÈANDÈSTRATEGYÈDEVELOPMENTÈ)NÈADDITIONÈTHISÈPROGRAMÈCANÈBEÈUSEDÈ
FORÈPERMANENTÈPLOTÈINVENTORYÈTOÈCALCULATEÈFUTUREÈGROWTHÈTHINNINGÈANDÈTIMBERÈHARVESTÈATÈ
THEÈENTERPRISEÈLEVELÈ4HEÈTHINNINGÈANDÈTHEÈAMOUNTÈOFÈTIMBERÈHARVESTEDÈBYÈCRITICALÈDIAMETERÈ
AREÈESTIMATEDÈBYÈAÈRULE
BASEDÈSYSTEMÈ4HISÈPROGRAMÈHASÈRECENTLYÈBEENÈEXTENDEDÈTOÈAÈDECI
SIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ+30?$33
È
)NTRODUCTION
:kh_d]j^[bWijZ[YWZ["j^[h[^WiX[[dWcW`ehi^_\j_dBem[hIWnedoÉi\eh[ij
feb_Yo]eWbi\hecYh[Wj_d]WdZcW_djW_d_d]fkh[ijWdZije[dYekhW]_d]c_n[Z#
if[Y_[iijWdZi$J^_ifeb_Yo_iZ[\_d[ZXoj^[BzM;bed]#j[hc[Yebe]_YWb\eh[ij
Z[l[befc[djfhe]hWcEjje'/./"'//'$?d[ii[dY["j^[BzM;fhe]hWcYWdX[
Z[iYh_X[ZXoj^[\ebbem_d]hkb[i0
v Ie_bfhej[Yj_edWdZi_j[#WZWfj[ZY^e_Y[e\if[Y_[i$
v ;dbWh]_d]j^[f[hY[djW][e\XheWZb[W\WdZc_n[Z\eh[ijijWdZi$
v ;Yebe]_YWbjeb[hWdY[$
v Fh[\[h[dY[\ehdWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ed$
v ?cfhel[c[dje\ijWdZijhkYjkh[$
v JWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]$
v 9edi[hlWj_ede\ebZjh[[i"hWh[WdZ[dZWd][h[Zif[Y_[i$
v ;ijWXb_i^c[dje\Wd[jmehae\fhej[Yj[Z\eh[iji$
v =kWhWdj[[e\if[Y_Wb\eh[ij\kdYj_edi$
v J[dZ_d]e\\eh[ij[Z][i$
v ;Yebe]_YWb\eh[ijfhej[Yj_ed$
' [#cW_b0cWjj^_Wi$iY^c_Zj6\ehij$Xmb$Z[
( <eh[ijFbWdd_d]7][dYoe\Bem[hIWnedo"=hjp[bijh$(")-&-+=jj_d][d"=[hcWdo
) <eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo"<ehijm[]'7").)&(Meb\[dXjj[b"=[hcWdo
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
(). #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
v =Wc[cWdW][c[djWffhefh_Wj[jej^[[Yeioij[c$
v Ki[e\\eh[ijj[Y^debe]oWffhefh_Wj[jej^[[dl_hedc[dj$
J^[')hkb[i^Wl[Yh[Wj[ZW]h[WjZ[Wbe\kdY[hjW_djo_d\eh[ijfbWdd_d]WdZ_d
j^[ kdZ[hijWdZ_d] e\ ijWdZ Z[l[befc[dj$O_[bZ jWXb[i" Z[i_]d[Z\eh fkh[ ijWdZi
WdZW\_n[Zjh[Wjc[dj"m[h[ikZZ[dboh[dZ[h[ZeXieb[j[\eh\eh[ijfbWdd_d]WdZ
cWdW][c[dj$7jj^[ijWdZb[l[b"ceij\eh[ij[hiij_bb^Wl[WYb[Wh_Z[WWXekjj^[_h
h_]^ji_bl_YkbjkhWbijhWj[]o$
FbWdd_d] Wj W Yecc[hY_Wb WdZ [Yeioij[c b[l[b" ^em[l[h" _i W ceh[ Yecfb[n
WdZ Yed\ki_d] fheY[ii$M_j^ _ji m_Z[#hWd]_d] WdZ iec[j_c[i Yed\b_Yj_d] ]eWbi"
j^[BzM;fhe]hWccWa[i_jZ_\\_YkbjjeZ[j[hc_d[ikijW_dWX_b_joWdZjecWdW][
\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yji$D[mjeebim[h[d[[Z[Z\ehcWa_d]Z[Y_i_ediWjj^[[Yeioij[cb[l#
[b$9edi[gk[djboj^[<eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedoD<L\eYki[Z_ji
[\\ehjiedh[i[WhY^edc_n[Z\eh[ijijWdZiWdZYedijhkYj_d]Wjh[[]hemj^ceZ[b
\ehd[WhboWbbfeii_Xb[c_njkh[ie\if[Y_[iki_d]\b[n_Xb[jh[Wjc[dji$Fh[l_ekibo"j^[
ijWj[i<eh[ijFbWdd_d]7][dYoD<F[ijWXb_i^[ZcWdW][c[djfbWdiXofh[iYh_X#
_d]jh[Wjc[djiedWijWdZ#Xo#ijWdZXWi_im_j^j^[^[bfe\o_[bZjWXb[i$Demj^[
D<FZ[l[beficWdW][c[djfbWdij^Wjki[jhW_d_d]fbejiWdZf[hcWd[dj_dl[dje#
hofbejZWjWje]k_Z[Z[Y_i_edcWa_d]$7iWh[ikbjj^[d[mfbWdd_d]fheY[Zkh[_i
ceh[Yeij[\\[Yj_l[WdZX[jj[hWZWfj[Zjej^[BzM;fhe]hWc8YacWdd(&&($
I_d]b[jh[[]hemj^ceZ[biWh[j^[ceijWffhefh_Wj[jeebi\ehkfZWj_d]^_]^h[i#
ebkj_edi_d]b[jh[[_dl[djehoZWjWX[YWki[j^[oWbbem\eh]hemj^fhe]dei[im_j^#
ekjWl[hW]_d]jh[[b[l[b_djeijWdZb[l[b_d\ehcWj_edFh[jpiY^(&&'$J^[h[\eh[W
Xh[WaZemde\kfZWj[ZijWdZb[l[blWh_WXb[i_djejh[[lWh_WXb[i"Wi_ih[gk_h[Z\eh
ceijfbWdd_d]Z[Y_i_edi"_ilWbkWXb[$
È
4HEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELÈ"7).0RO
J^[D<L^WiWm_Z[d[je\Wffhen_cWj[bo-+&]hemj^WdZo_[bZ[nf[h_c[dji
el[hdehj^m[ij=[hcWdo$J^[i[ZWjWWdZj^[WZZ_j_edWbZWjWe\d[mc_n[Zif[#
Y_[i [nf[h_c[dji m[h[ ki[Z je YedijhkYj W ijWj_ij_YWb \eh[ij jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[b$
J^[]hemj^e\[WY^jh[[_i[ij_cWj[ZXoh[]h[ii_ed\kdYj_edij^Wjfh_cWh_bo_d#
YbkZ[j^[\ekh_dZ[f[dZ[djfWhWc[j[hie\Yhemdikh\WY[Wh[W"YhemdYecf[j_j_ed
WdZj^[Y^Wd][e\YhemdYecf[j_j_edZk[jej^_dd_d]WdZW][$J^[Ye[\\_Y_[djie\
j^[i[\kdYj_ediWh[Z[j[hc_d[Z\ehWbbcW`ehif[Y_[i$J^[YhemdfWhWc[j[him[h[
ki[ZjecWa[j^[ceZ[bi[di_j_l[\ehc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi$Jh[[YeehZ_dWj[im[h[
dejki[Z"i_dY[j^[om[h[kdWlW_bWXb[\ehceije\j^[ijkZojh[[i$J^[h[\eh[j^[
ceZ[bcWoX[YbWii_\_[ZWiWZ_ijWdY[#_dZ[f[dZ[djjh[[ceZ[b$CehjWb_jo_i[ij_#
cWj[ZXoWYh_j_YWblWbk[e\YhemdYecf[j_j_ed\eh[WY^if[Y_[i$9khh[djboWd_d#
]hemj^ceZ[b^WiX[[dWZZ[Z$J^[\_hijl[hi_ede\j^[ceZ[bmWih[b[Wi[Z_d'//,
DW][b'//,$?dj^[c[Wdj_c[j^[ceZ[b^WiX[[dh[fWhWc[j[h_i[ZDW][b[jWb$
(&&($J^[ceZ[bWdZWZ[jW_b[Zki[hi]k_Z[Wh[WlW_bWXb[edj^[_dj[hd[j'
' ^jjf0%%mmm$d\l$]mZ]$Z[%7%8m_dFhe%Xm_dfhe$f^f
È "7).0ROÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING ()/
<ehfhWYj_YWbWffb_YWj_edij^[jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bmWi_dYehfehWj[Z_djeWYec#
fkj[hie\jmWh[fhe]hWc8M?DFhe"m^_Y^YWdi_ckbWj[\eh[ijijWdZi$8[i_Z[ij^[
]hemj^#Z[j[hc_d_d]\kdYj_edi"j^[fhe]hWcYedi_ijie\cWdohekj_d[i\eh0
v ZWjW_dfkjWdZijehW][1
v ][d[hWj_ede\c_ii_d]ZWjW1
v j^_dd_d]1
v i[b[Yj_d]Yhefjh[[i1
v l_ikWb_iWj_ed1
v Wiiehjc[djYWbYkbWj_ed1
v meeZgkWb_jo1
v lWh_eki>JCB#\ehcWjj[Zekjfkj1
v ki[hi]k_Z[$
J^ki\Wh"j^_ifhe]hWccW_dbo^WiX[[dki[Z\ehh[i[WhY^WdZ\ehj^[Z[l[b#
efc[dj e\ i_bl_YkbjkhWb h[Yecc[dZWj_edi \eh ijWdZ jh[Wjc[dj WYYehZ_d] je j^[
BzM; fhe]hWc >_bb[XhWdZ '//-1 If[bbcWdd '//-1 >Wkia[bb[h '//.1 Aed_jp[h
(&&&1 HWZ[cWY^[h [j Wb$ (&&'" Xkj _j Wbie ^Wi X[[d WlW_bWXb[ je \eh[ij[hi _d j^[
\_[bZ$:_ijh_Xkj_d]j^[fhe]hWcel[hj^[_dj[hd[jjej^[fkXb_Y\hecj^[X[]_dd_d]
^Wi^[bf[Zje_cfhel[Xej^j^[]hemj^ceZ[bWdZj^[Yecfkj[hfhe]hWcWi[n#
j[hdWbki[hifhel_Z[Yecc[djiWdZYh_j_Y_ici$H[Y[djbo"j^[fhe]hWc^WiX[Yec[
_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[\eh[ijfbWdd_d]fheY[iie\j^[D<F$
È
"7).0ROÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING
?d \eh[ij fbWdd_d] jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi YWd X[ ki[Z \eh Z_\\[h[dj h[Wiedi
<_]$'($'$ <_hij" j^[o YWd X[ ki[Z je Z[l[bef i_bl_YkbjkhWb ijhWj[]_[i \eh i_d]b[
ijWdZiehijhWjW$J^_i_iWd_cfehjWdjjWiam^[dZ[j[hc_d_d]][d[hWbijhWj[]_[i$
>em[l[h"m^[di[jj_d]kfcWdW][c[djfbWdi"i_bl_Ykbjkh_ijiYWddejZ[l[bef_dZ_#
l_ZkWbbojW_beh[ZijhWj[]_[i\ehWbbijWdZi"X[YWki[j^[h[mWideWkjecWj_Yhekj_d[
je\_dZWdefj_cWbjh[Wjc[dj\eh[WY^ijWdZ$?dj[hWYj_l[i_ckbWj_ede\WbbijWdZi
mekbZ X[ jee j_c[#Yedikc_d]$ J^ki j^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh 8M?DFhe _i ki[Z je
YedZkYj ]hemj^ i_ckbWj_edi XWi[Z ed j^[ Wffb_YWj_ed e\ Z_\\[h[dj i_bl_YkbjkhWb
jh[Wjc[djije[nf[h_c[djWbijWdZim_j^jof_YWbif[Y_[iYecfei_j_ed$J^_ifheY[#
Zkh[[dWXb[ij^[\eh[iji[hl_Y[jei[jkfcW_dcWdW][c[dj]k_Z[b_d[i\ehijWdZ
jof[i _dij[WZ e\ Wd efj_c_i[Z jh[Wjc[dj \eh [WY^ i_d]b[ ijWdZ$I_d]b[ ijWdZ ef#
j_c_iWj_ede\jh[Wjc[dji_ib_c_j[ZWdomWoX[YWki[e\j^[bWYae\c[Wikh[Zi_d#
&IGÈÈ -AINÈ APPLICATIONÈ AREASÈ OFÈ THEÈ FORESTÈ GROWTHÈ SIMULATORÈ "7).0ROÈ WITHINÈ THEÈ FORESTÈ
PLANNINGÈPROCESSÈOFÈ,OWERÈ3AXONY
(*& #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
]b[jh[[WdZijWdZ_d\ehcWj_edWjj^[ijWdZb[l[b_\j^[iWcfb[#XWi[Z_dl[djeho_i
WZWfj[Zjej^[[dj[hfh_i[b[l[b"Wi_dBem[hIWnedo8YacWdd[jWb$'//.$
<eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehiYWdWbieX[ki[Z_dj[WY^_d]WdZjhWdi\[hh_d]i_bl_#
YkbjkhWbijhWj[]_[ijej^[\_[bZ<_]$'($($:kh_d]j^[fbWdd_d]fheY[iij^[i[h[Y#
ecc[dZWj_ediWh[Z_iYkii[Z_dj^[\_[bZWjkfjej[djhW_d_d]fbejif[h\eh[ijZ_i#
jh_Yj" ki_d] j^[ 8M?DFhe fhe]hWc je fhel_Z[ ijWdZ _d\ehcWj_ed WdZ l_ikWb_iW#
j_ed$J^[8M?DFhei_ckbWj_edfhe]hWc_iki[ZXoj^[D<FWiWd[ZkYWj_edWbjeeb"
Wbbem_d]f[efb[_dj^[\_[bZjel_ikWb_i[WdZZ_iYkiij^[jh[Wjc[dje\j^[if[Y_Wb
&IGÈÈ4EACHINGÈANDÈDISCUSSINGÈSILVICULTURALÈSTRATEGIESÈATÈAÈTRAININGÈPLOTÈANDÈUSINGÈTHEÈTREEÈ
GROWTHÈMODELÈFORÈTHEÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈMARKINGSÈOFÈTHINNINGSÈANDÈCROPÈTREESÈ!BBREVIATIONSÈINÈTA
BLEÈ*AHRÈYEARÈ!RTÈSPECIESÈCODEÈ!LTERÈAGEÈ.HAÈNUMBERÈOFÈSTEMSÈNHA È$ÈANDÈ(ÈDIAME
TERÈCM ÈANDÈHEIGHTÈM ÈOFÈSTRONGESTÈÈTREESÈ$GÈANDÈ(GÈDIAMETERÈCM ÈANDÈHEIGHTÈM ÈOFÈMEANÈ
QUADRATICÈDIAMETERÈ'HAÈBASALÈAREAÈMHA È6FMHAÈTOTALÈVOLUMEÈINSIDEÈBARKÈMHA È%FMHAÈ
HARVESTÈVOLUMEÈMHA È'ÈBASALÈAREAÈPERCENTAGEÈ"²ÈDEGREEÈOFÈSTOCKINGÈ%+LÈYIELDÈCLASSÈ,+LÈ
MAXIMUMÈVOLUMEÈINCREMENTÈMYEAR
È $ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING (*'
jhW_d_d]fbeji$9hefjh[[cWha_d]iWdZj^_dd_d]iYWdX[[lWbkWj[ZWim[bbWij^[
\kjkh[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[fbej$
J^[ [\\[Yji e\ Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i YWd X[ _bbkijhWj[Z" [$]$" j^[
_cfhel[c[dje\Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^e\Yhefjh[[iYWki[ZXoj^_dd_d]i\hecWXel[
YecfWh[Zjej^_dd_d]i\hecX[bem$I_dY[Wiiehjc[djWdZmeeZgkWb_johekj_d[i
^Wl[X[[d_dYehfehWj[Z"j^[i_ckbWjehWbbemij^[ki[hjefh[Z_Yjj^[[\\[Yje\Z_\#
\[h[dj Yhef jh[[ i[b[Yj_edi WdZ j^_dd_d] h[]_c[i ed Wiiehjc[dj ijhkYjkh[ WdZ
meeZgkWb_joYecfei_j_ed$J^[i[[cf_h_YWbbom[bb#\ekdZ[Zekjfkjh[ikbjiWh[l[ho
lWbkWXb[m^[dYecfWh_d]j^[X[d[\_jiWdZYeijie\Z_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[djiWdZm^[d
Yedl_dY_d]\eh[ij[hie\j^[Wffhefh_Wj[d[iie\cW_dcWdW][c[dj]k_Z[b_d[i$
Ceij \eh[ij ]hemj^ i_ckbWjehi ^Wl[ W l_ikWb_iWj_ed hekj_d[ j^Wj YWd X[ ki[Z
_dZ_iYkii_ediWced]\eh[ij[hiWdZm^[d_jYec[ijefWhj_Y_fWj_ede\j^[fkXb_Y$
J^[]hWf^_YWbekjfkje\j^[fhe]hWc8M?DFhe^WiX[[dki[Zl[hoikYY[ii\kbbo_d
fkXb_Y^[Wh_d]ih[]WhZ_d]YecckdWb\eh[iji$8M?DFhefhel_Z[ij^h[[Wbj[hdWj_l[
hekj_d[i\ehl_ikWb_iWj_ed$J^[LHCBL_hjkWbH[Wb_joCeZ[bb_d]BWd]kW][hek#
j_d[Wbbemij^[ki[hjel_hjkWbbomWbaj^hek]^eh\boel[hj^[ijWdZ$J^[fhe]hWc
^WiWbieX[[dki[Z_dYecX_dWj_edm_j^W][e]hWf^_YWb_d\ehcWj_edioij[c=?I
WdZbWdZiYWf[l_ikWb_iWj_edfhe]hWcAdWk\j(&&&$
<ehc_Z#WdZbed]#j[hcfbWdd_d]j^[efj_cWbi_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[dje\[WY^
ijWdZcWodejX[j^[X[ijiebkj_edWjj^[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[b[l[b$<eh[nWcfb["_\
WijWdZYedjW_diWikhfbkie\jh[[im_j^bWh][hZ_Wc[j[h"j^[X[ijiebkj_edWjj^[
ijWdZb[l[bmekbZX[je^Whl[ijj^[i[m_j^_dj^[d[nj\[mo[Whi$7jj^[[dj[hfh_i[
b[l[b"^em[l[h"ikY^WZ[Y_i_edYekbZb[WZjefheXb[ci_dcWdfem[hWdZWi^ehj#
W][ e\ c[hY^WdjWXb[ j_cX[h e\ j^[ d[nj cWdW][c[dj YoYb[i$ 8o Wffbo_d] j^[
]hemj^ceZ[bje\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW"_j_ifeii_Xb[jeYWbYkbWj[j^[]hemj^"[ij_#
cWj[j^[Wcekdje\j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ijXoWiiehjc[dji"WdZ[lWbkWj[^emckY^
e\j^[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[Wh[WYehh[ifedZim_j^j^[eX`[Yj_l[ie\j^[BzM;YedY[fj$
J^[[nj[di_ede\j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh\hecWi_d]b[ijWdZi_ckbWjehjeWcWd#
W][c[dj jeeb \eh ijhWj[]_Y \eh[ij fbWdd_d] XWi[Z ed f[hcWd[dj iWcfb[ fbej _d#
l[djeh_[i_ij^[cW_djef_Ye\j^[mehafWYaW][Feb_Yo:[cem_j^_dj^[;K#?JC
fhe`[Yj$ 9^Wfj[h* ]_l[i W Z[jW_b[Z if[Y_\_YWj_ed e\ j^_i ]hemj^#i_ckbWjeh#XWi[Z
Z[Y_i_edikffehjioij[cAIFU:II\ehc_Z#j[hc\eh[ijfbWdd_d]_dBem[hIWnedo
i[[WbieIeZja[[jWb$(&&)$
È
$ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING
<eh[ijho ^Wi W bed] jhWZ_j_ed _d =[hcWdo WdZ j^_i jhWZ_j_ed _d\bk[dY[i j^[
meha e\ \eh[ij[hi WdZ j^[_h WYY[fjWdY[ e\ d[m j[Y^debe]o$ 8o _dj[]hWj_d] j^[
jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[b 8M?DFhe _dje \eh[ij fhWYj_Y[ m[ ^Wl[ ]W_d[Z ckY^ [nf[h_#
[dY[YedY[hd_d]f[efb[ifioY^ebe]o$<eh_dijWdY["m[^Wl[b[Whd[Zj^Wjj^[jh[[
]hemj^ceZ[b_iWYY[fj[ZedboX[YWki[_jfhel_Z[i_d\ehcWj_edWdZZe[idejfhe#
l_Z[Wiebkj_ed$J^[\eh[ij[himWdjjekdZ[hijWdZm^oWceZ[b]_l[iWY[hjW_dik]#
][ij_ed"WdZkbj_cWj[boj^[omWdjjecWa[j^[Z[Y_i_edij^[ci[bl[i$
J^[iWc[_ijhk[\eh\eh[ijfbWdd_d]WdZ^WijeX[jWa[d_djeYedi_Z[hWj_ed
m^[dm[j^_daWXekjZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci$Edj^[ed[^WdZ"\eh[ij[hid[[Z
(*( #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
ikffehj\eh^WdZb_d]j^[^k][Wcekdje\_d\ehcWj_edWdZh[ijh_Yj_edim^[di[j#
j_d]kfWcWdW][c[djfbWd$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"j^[omWdjjeh[cW_d_dYedjhebe\
j^[ioij[cWdZd[[ZjekdZ[hijWdZj^[ekjYec["iej^Wjj^[oYWd[nfbW_d_jjej^[
f[efb[_dj^[\_[bZ$7iWfWhje\j^[;K#?JCfhe`[Yjm[^WZj^[effehjkd_jojeYh[#
Wj[WZ[Y_i_edikffehjioij[c\ehi[jj_d]kfcWdW][c[djfbWdi_dYbei[Yeef[h#
Wj_edm_j^ekhfWhjd[hi\hecj^[D<F$J^[_Z[WmWijeYh[Wj[W\W_hboi_cfb["ki[#
WXb["ijhW_]^j\ehmWhZiebkj_edhWj^[hj^WdWYecfb[j[:II$J^[h[\eh["m[Z[Y_Z[Z
je^WdZb[j^[jmejWiaiZ[l[befc[dje\i_bl_YkbjkhWbijhWj[]_[i"j[WY^_d]WdZ_c#
fb[c[djWj_edjej^[\_[bZWdZc_Z#WdZbed]#j[hcfbWdd_d]edWd[dj[hfh_i[b[l#
[bi[fWhWj[bo$
:[\Wkbji_bl_YkbjkhWbijhWj[]_[i^Wl[X[[dZ[l[bef[Zki_d]j^[jh[[]hemj^i_c#
kbWjeh8M?DFheWjj^[ijWdZb[l[bm_j^ZWjW\hec[nf[h_c[djWbWdZjhW_d_d]fbeji$
J^[iY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edi\ehfbWdd_d]fkhfei[ih[ikbj_d][d[hWbh[Yecc[dZW#
j_edi ed ^em je jh[Wj W Y[hjW_d cWdW][c[dj ijhWjW" m^[h[Wi j^[Z[Y_i_ed lWh_W#
Xb[iWh[Wbbem[ZjeZ_\\[h\hecj^[Z[\Wkbji$7cWdW][c[djijhWjkcehi_bl_Ykbjkh#
Wbkd_j_iZ[\_d[ZXoj^[Ykhh[dj\eh[ijijWdZjof[8JWdZj^[Z[i_h[Z\eh[ijjof[
e\ cWdW][c[dj eX`[Yj_l[ M;J$ Je][j^[h m_j^ ekh fWhjd[h \hec j^[ D<F" m[
_Z[dj_\_[Za[ogk[ij_edi\ehj^[Z[Y_i_edikffehjioij[cm^_Y^j^[ioij[ci^ekbZ
iebl[_dehZ[hjeWii_ijc_Z#WdZbed]#j[hcfbWdd_d]$J^[i[Wh[0
v 9edY[hd_d]o_[bZfhe]dei_iWdZiY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_ed0
Ä C_Z#j[hcWcekdje\j^_dd_d]5
Ä C_Z#j[hcWcekdje\j_cX[h^Whl[ij5
Ä 7YjkWbWdZ\kjkh[\h[gk[dYo"lebkc[WdZXWiWbWh[WZ_ijh_Xkj_ediXo:8>
YbWii[i5
Ä 7YjkWbWdZ\kjkh[Wcekdje\h[][d[hWj_edWh[W5
Ä 7YjkWbWcekdje\^WX_jWjijWdZ_d]Z[WZmeeZ"[jY$jh[[i5
Ä 7cekdje\j^[\eh[ijWh[Wj^Wj_iYel[h[ZXoif[Y_\_Y8Ji"Wii_]d[ZM;Ji
WdZh[ikbj_d]YecX_dWj_edicWdW][c[djijhWjW"i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_ji5
Ä JhWdi_j_edijWjkie\j^[8JiYecfWh[Zm_j^j^[Wii_]d[ZM;Ji5
Ä 7YjkWbWdZ\kjkh[\eh[ijWh[WZ_ijh_Xkj_edXoj^_dd_d]kh][dYo5
Ä 7YjkWbWdZ\kjkh[\eh[ijWh[WZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\Z_\\[h[djijWdZijhkYjkh[i5
Ä ?d\bk[dY[e\Z_\\[h[djcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[iWffb_[Zjej^[cWdW][c[dj
ijhWjW5
v 9edY[hd_d][Yedec_YWbWdWboi_iWdZWdWboi_ie\i[di_j_l_jo0
Ä 7YjkWbWdZ\kjkh[Wiiehjc[djijhkYjkh[e\j_cX[h5
Ä 7YjkWbWdZ\kjkh[meeZgkWb_joijhkYjkh[e\j_cX[h5
Ä ?d\bk[dY[e\Z_\\[h[djfh_Y[#Yeijh[bWj_ediedj^[ef[hWj_d]h[ikbj5
<ehj^[iY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edm[\ekdZj^WjekhfWhjd[hmWiceijbo_dj[h[ij[Z
_dWbj[h_d]j^[Z[Y_i_eda[olWh_WXb[ijWh][jZ_Wc[j[h"j^_dd_d]ijh[d]j^WdZh[#
ijh_Yj_edie\j^_dd_d]iYedY[hd_d]meeZgkWb_jo"fhkd[Zjh[[iWdZ^WX_jWjjh[[i$
J^[Z[jW_b[ZYedY[fj_edWb\hWc[mehae\j^[:II\ehc_Z#WdZbed]#j[hcfbWdd_d]
YedY[hd_d]j^[if[Y_\_YZ[cWdZie\j^[\eh[ijfbWdd_d]W][dYoD<Fe\Bem[h
IWnedo_iZ[iYh_X[ZX[bem$J^[\hWc[mehaYedjW_dij^[\ebbem_d]ikX#ioij[ci0W
ZWjWXWi[1WdWboi_ie\j^[Ykhh[dji_jkWj_edWdZj^[iY[dWh_ei1kfZWj_d]e\j^[Ykh#
h[djijWjkiYedi_Z[h_d]Z_\\[h[dY[j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ijh[]_c[iiY[dWh_ei_ckbW#
j_ed1WdZ]hWf^_YWbfh[i[djWj_ede\i_ckbWj_edh[ikbji$
È $ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING (*)
È
$ATABASE
J^[ cW_d fkhfei[i e\ j^[ ZWjWXWi[ Wh[ je ijeh[ _dl[djeho ZWjW WdZ i_ckbW#
j_edh[ikbjiWdZfhel_Z[WijWdZWhZ_i[ZZWjW_dj[h\WY[\ehj^[ ]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$
:_\\[h[djjof[ie\jWXb[iYedjW_d_d]_dl[djeho_d\ehcWj_edWdZi_ckbWj_edh[ikbji
Wim[bbWiZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[iYWdX[YecX_d[Zm_j^_ded[ZWjWXWi[\_b[$J^[f[h#
cWd[djiWcfb[fbej_dl[djehoZWjW"Yedi_ij_d]e\fbejWdZjh[[_d\ehcWj_ed"Wh[
eh]Wd_i[Z _d W CI#799;II ZWjWXWi[ je [dikh[ YecfWj_X_b_jo m_j^ ZWjW \ehcWji
fhel_Z[ZXoj^[D<F$7ZZ_j_edWbboj^[ki[e\WZWjWXWi[Wbbemi\ehZWjWXWi[fhe#
]hWcc_d] ki_d] ijhkYjkh[Z gk[ho bWd]kW][ IGB ijWj[c[dji" m^_Y^ \WY_b_jWj[i
ckbj_fb[ijhWj_\_YWj_edXofbejWdZjh[[lWh_WXb[i$J^[i[ijhWj_\_YWj_edefj_ediWh[
fWhj e\ j^[ cW_d [d^WdY[c[dji je [nj[dZ j^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh _dje W :II \eh
c_Z#j[hc\eh[ijfbWdd_d]$
?dl[djeh_[Zjh[[lWh_WXb[iWh[jh[[if[Y_[i":8>"W]["jh[[YeehZ_dWj[iWdZh[f#
h[i[djWj_l[c[Wikh[c[dji\ehjh[[^[_]^jWdZYhemdXWi["Wim[bbWi_d\ehcWj_ed
WXekj j_cX[h gkWb_jo" fhkd_d] ^[_]^j WdZ XWha f[[b_d] ZWcW][$ ?cfehjWdj fbej
lWh_WXb[iWh[i_j["8JWdZm[_]^j_d]\WYjehi\hecj^[jme#f^Wi[_dl[djehoZ[i_]d
:W^c WdZ IWXehemia_ '//.$ ?d WZZ_j_ed" j^[h[ _i _d\ehcWj_ed YedY[hd_d] j^[
^[_]^j Z_ijh_Xkj_ed e\ h[][d[hWj_ed b[ii j^Wd -Yc :8> Z_\\[h[dj_Wj[Z Xo jh[[
if[Y_[iWdZh[][d[hWj_edjof[$J^[ZWjWXWi[Wbiefhel_Z[i_d\ehcWj_edWXekjZ[#
Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ij^WjZ[\_d[Z[\Wkbjjh[Wjc[djiWdZj^[hkb[i\ehj^[Wii_]dc[dje\
j^[M;Jije_dl[djehofbeji$
È
!NALYSISÈOFÈTHEÈ#URRENTÈ3ITUATIONÈANDÈ3CENARIOS
J^[:II_dYbkZ[iWikX#Yecfed[djjeWdWboi[j^[Ykhh[djijWjkiWdZWbj[hdW#
j_l[\kjkh[iY[dWh_ei$M_j^j^[Yedl[hi_ed\hecfkh[jec_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZij^[
Z[j[hc_dWj_ede\ikijW_dWX_b_jo^WiX[Yec[ceh[Yecfb_YWj[Z$Ed[WffheWY^je
el[hYec_d]j^[fheXb[ce\c_ii_d]efj_cWb]k_Z[b_d[ije[dikh[ikijW_dWX_b_jo_i
jeYedZkYj]hemj^i_ckbWj_ediWdZ[ij_cWj[j^[\kjkh[ijWj[lWh_WXb[iWdZkj_b_iW#
j_edfej[dj_Wbie\j^ei[h[iekhY[i\ehm^_Y^ikijW_dWX_b_jo_iZ[cWdZ[Z$J^ki"Xo
Wbj[h_d]Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i"ki[hiYWdeXjW_dX[jj[hWZWfj[ZcWdW][c[djfbWdi_d
Wd_j[hWj_l[fheY[ii$J^[ceij_cfehjWdjlWh_WXb[i_d[lWbkWj_d]Z_\\[h[djWif[Yji
e\ikijW_dWX_b_joWh[jh[[#if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_YZ_Wc[j[hWdZWiiehjc[djijhkYjkh[i\eh
\kjkh[ ijWj[i" j^_dd_d] WdZ ^Whl[ij Wcekdji$7iiehjc[dj ijhkYjkh[ifhel_Z[j^[
XWi_i\ehj^[[lWbkWj_ede\\kjkh[[Yedec_YWbikijW_dWX_b_jo$>em[l[h"j^[oYWdWb#
ieX[ki[Z\ehlWb_ZWj_ede\ikijW_dWX_b_joYedY[hd_d][Yebe]_YWbWif[YjiikY^Wi
j^[_cfWYje\^Whl[ijWbj[hdWj_l[i"[$]$Z_\\[h[djj^h[i^ebZi\ehkff[hZ_Wc[j[h"ed
dkjh_[djZ_iY^Wh][WdZikffboHWZ[cWY^[h[jWb$(&&'$:_Wc[j[hijhkYjkh[iWh[
ki[\kb\eh[ij_cWj_d]bed]#j[hch[iekhY[i\ehjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ijWim[bbWi
j^[ Wcekdj e\ l[ho bWh][ jh[[i Z[[c[Z mehj^o e\ fh[i[hlWj_ed$ J^[ :II Wbbemi
\ehYWbYkbWj_ede\c[Wd\h[gk[dYoWdZlebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_ediXo:8>WdZWiiehj#
c[djYbWii[i\ehckbj_fb[ijhWj_\_YWj_edefj_ediYecX_dWj_edie\i_j["8J"M;J$
7iiehjc[dji[jj_d]iWh[WZ`kij[ZXoj^h[i^ebZlWbk[i\ehkff[hZ_Wc[j[hWdZj_c#
(** #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
X[hb[d]j^"XWhah[ZkYj_edWdZb[d]j^%Z_Wc[j[h[nY[iiIY^c_Zj(&&'1DW][b[jWb$
(&&($J^[Wiiehjc[djhekj_d[_iWbieWffb_[Zjej^[[ij_cWj[ZWcekdje\j^_dd_d]
WdZ^Whl[ijXojWh][jZ_Wc[j[h$?dl[djeho_d\ehcWj_edYedY[hd_d]j_cX[hgkWb_jo"
fhkd_d]^[_]^jWdZXWhaf[[b_d]ZWcW][YWdX[ki[Z\ehWceh[Z[jW_b[ZijhWj_\_#
YWj_ede\_dl[djeho_d\ehcWj_edWdZi_ckbWj_edh[ikbji$
7\khj^[hjof[e\_d\ehcWj_edki[\kb_dj^[[lWbkWj_ede\ikijW_dWX_b_joWif[Yji
_ij^Wje\j^[Ykhh[djWdZ\kjkh[fhefehj_edie\j^[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[Wh[Wm^_Y^
Wh[Yel[h[ZXoijWdZie\Y[hjW_dfhef[hj_[i$<ehj^[i[h[gk_h[c[djij^[:IIfhe#
l_Z[i\h[gk[dYoZ_ijh_Xkj_edie\m[_]^j[ZiWcfb[fbeji]hekf[ZXoijWdZlWh_W#
Xb[iikY^WiXWiWbWh[W"jejWblebkc["Zec_dWdj^[_]^j"lebkc[_dYh[c[dj"Wcekdj
e\Z[WZmeeZ"Wcekdje\j^_dd_d]WdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij"m^_Y^h[fh[i[dj
f[hY[djW][ie\j^[\eh[ijWh[W$J^[Z_ijh_Xkj_edjof[j^WjZ[iYh_X[ij^[\eh[ij[d#
j[hfh_i[Wh[WXoYbWii_\o_d]iWcfb[fbejiYWdX[YWbYkbWj[Z\ehj^[m^eb[Z_ijh_Yj
Wim[bbWi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbijhWjWYecX_dWj_edie\i_j["8J"M;J$
7i\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[cWdW][hi[dZ[WlekhjeYedl[hjfkh[ijWdZijec_n[Z#if[#
Y_[iijWdZi_dWYYehZWdY[m_j^j^[BzM;fhe]hWc"j^[ockijYedi_Z[h^emj^[
_dYh[Wi[Zf[hY[djW][ie\XheWZb[Wl[Zjh[[if[Y_[iW\\[YjYWbYkbWj_edie\j^[fbWdj#
_d]Wh[Wm_j^_dfbWdd_d]f[h_eZi"WdZj^[WiieY_Wj[ZgkWdj_j_[ie\mehaWdZYeiji$
J^[[\\[Yje\j^[BzM;fhe]hWcedjh[[if[Y_[iYecfei_j_edWjj^[[dj[hfh_i[b[l#
[bYWdX[_bbkijhWj[Z_dehZ[hjeikffehjd[]ej_Wj_edfheY[ii[im_j^Z_\\[h[dj\eh#
[ij_dj[h[ij]hekfi$J^[WkjecWj_YWii_]dc[dje\M;Ji_iYedjhebb[ZXoWZ[Y_i_ed
hkb["m^_Y^_dYbkZ[ihWda_d]ie\\[Wi_Xb[M;JiXoijWdZWdZi_j[jof[i$J^[\_dWb
i[b[Yj_ede\WM;Jh[ikbji\hecj^[_dj[hi[Yj_ede\j^[hWda_d]i"m^_Y^Wh[Z[#
\_d[ZXoYkhh[djijWdZjof[WdZi_j[$7dWZZ_j_edWbWdWboi_ifhel_Z[iWdWh[Wf[h#
Y[djW][Z_ijh_Xkj_ede\8JiWdZM;Jim_j^_dj^[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[$J^[h[ikbj_d]
YecX_dWj_edie\8JiWdZM;JiWh[ki[ZjeijhWj_\oiWcfb[fbeji_djecWdW][c[dj
kd_jijem^_Y^if[Y_\_Ykd_\ehcj^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ij_d]h[]_c[iWh[Wffb_[Z$8o
YecfWh_d] j^[ WYjkWb WdZ Z[i_h[Z if[Y_[i Yecfei_j_ed \eh 8JÄM;J YecX_dW#
j_edi"Z[l_Wj_ediX[jm[[dif[Y_[iYecfei_j_edYWdX[_Z[dj_\_[ZWdZYedi_Z[h[Z_d
j^[Z[\_d_j_ede\j^[j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ijYedjheblWh_WXb[i$8Wi[Zedh[ikbji\hec
j^[_d_j_Wbhkdi"j^[fhe]hWcki[hYWdj^[dWZ`kijj^[Z[\WkbjlWbk[i\ehYedjheb#
b_d]j^_dd_d]"^Whl[ijWdZWhj_\_Y_Wbh[][d[hWj_edfbWdd_d]_dehZ[hjeWYYecfb_i^
j^[Z[i_h[Zif[Y_[iYecfei_j_ede\WM;J_dWi^ehj[hj_c[hWd][$HWh[8JÄM;J
YecX_dWj_ediXoZ[\_d_j_edb[iij^Wd+e\j^[\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWh[WYWdX[Yec#
X_d[Z_djeYWj[]eh_[ij^WjWh[Z[\_d[ZXoj^[Zec_dWdjjh[[if[Y_[ie\Wfbej$
J^[Yedl[hi_edfheY[iiZ[\_d[ZXoj^[BzM;fhe]hWc_iW\\[Yj[ZXoj^[Ykh#
h[dj h[][d[hWj_ed ijWjki WdZ _ji \kjkh[ Z[l[befc[dj Wbie$ >[dY[ \eh fbWdd_d]
fbWdj_d]WYj_l_j_[iWdZ_bbkijhWj_d]j^[Yedl[hi_edfheY[iijej^[fkXb_Y"j^[\eh[ij
Z_ijh_YjcWdW][hd[[Zi_d\ehcWj_edWXekjj^[Ykhh[djh[][d[hWj_edijhkYjkh[WdZ
_jiZ[l[befc[dj$7dej^[h_cfehjWdjWif[YjjeYedi_Z[h_ij^[_d\bk[dY[e\h[][d#
[hWj_edijWjkiedj^[Wii_]dc[dje\M;Jije_dl[djehofbeji$?\Z[di_joWdZ^[_]^j
e\j^[WZlWdY[Zh[][d[hWj_edh[WY^Y[hjW_dj^h[i^ebZlWbk[i"j^[Wii_]dc[dj_ide
bed][hZ[j[hc_d[ZXoj^[WYjkWbijeYa_d]Xkj_dij[WZXoj^[Yecfei_j_ede\j^[
h[][d[hWj_edif[Y_[i$
H[][d[hWj_edWdWboi_ifhel_Z[ZXoj^[:II_iXWi[Zedif[Y_\_Y^[_]^jZ_ijh_#
Xkj_edie\_dl[djeh_[Zif[Y_[i$J^[h[ikbjiYWdWbieX[ijhWj_\_[ZXoi_j[WdZ8JÄ
M;JYecX_dWj_edi$
È $ECISIONÈ3UPPORTÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING (*+
<kjkh[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[Ykhh[djh[][d[hWj_edijWjkid[[ZijeX[\eh[YWij[Z
_\WYecfh[^[di_l[XWi[\ehc_Z#j[hcfbWdd_d]e\fbWdj_d]WYj_l_j_[iWdZWh[Wb#
_ij_Ybed]#j[hcfbWdd_d]e\j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ijWcekdjWh[jeX[fhel_Z[Z$J^_i
fWhje\j^[:II_iYkhh[djbokdZ[hYedijhkYj_edWdZm_bbYedi_ije\\ekhikX#Yec#
fed[dji0
'$ 7Yecfed[djj^WjWbbemi\ehif[Y_\_YWj_ede\Whj_\_Y_WbfbWdj_d]Wh[WiWdZZ[d#
i_j_[i\ehcWdW][c[djijhWjWi_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_ji$
($ 7Yecfed[djj^Wj\eh[YWijij^[[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZijhkYjkh[e\h[][d[hWj_ed
\eh_dl[djehofbejim_j^deYkhh[djh[][d[hWj_ed$
)$ 7Yecfed[djj^Wj\eh[YWijij^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[h[][d[hWj_edijhkYjkh[Wi
i^_\j_d]e\j^[j^h[[_dl[djeho^[_]^jYbWii[iel[hj_c[$
*$ 7 Yecfed[dj j^Wj [ij_cWj[i j^[ _d]hemj^ hWj[ e\ jh[[i [nY[[Z_d] W :8> e\
-YcZkh_d]Wfhe]dei_if[h_eZ$
J^[BzM;fhe]hWc_dYbkZ[ij^[Yedi[hlWj_ede\ebZjh[[iWdZhWh[WdZ[d#
ZWd][h[Z if[Y_[i$ >[dY[ jh[[i m_j^ if[Y_\_Y dWjkh[ Yedi[hlWj_ed \kdYj_edi WdZ
W:8>[nY[[Z_d])&YcWh[Wii[ii[Z_dj^[f[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbej_dl[djeho_d
Bem[hIWnedo$<ehWdWboi_ie\[Yebe]_YWbWif[Yji"j^[:IIWbbemi\ehj^[YWbYkbW#
j_ede\\h[gk[dYo"XWiWbWh[WWdZlebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_ediXo:8>YbWii[ie\ijWdZ#
_d]Z[WZjh[[i"jh[[im_j^YWl_j_[iWdZW[h_[i$Ckbj_fb[ijhWj_\_YWj_ede\j^[h[ikbji
Xojh[[WdZfbejlWh_WXb[iWiZ[iYh_X[ZWXel[YWdj^[dX[YedZkYj[Z$
È
5PDATINGÈOFÈTHEÈ#URRENTÈ3TATUSÈ#ONSIDERINGÈ$IFFERENTÈ4HINNINGÈ
ANDÈ(ARVESTÈ2EGIMESÈ3CENARIOÈ3IMULATION
7\j[h j^[ ][d[hWj_ed e\ c_ii_d] _d\ehcWj_ed _$[$ kdc[Wikh[Z ^[_]^ji WdZ
Yhemd_d\ehcWj_ede\i_d]b[jh[[i"i_d]b[jh[[]hemj^_iZ[iYh_X[Zki_d]]hemj^
\kdYj_edi\eh:8>WdZ^[_]^jWdZijWj_YceZ[bi\ehYhemdXWi[WdZYhemdm_Zj^
\hecj^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh8M?DFheDW][b[jWb$(&&($Jh[[]hemj^_i[ij_cWj#
[Z"jWa_d]_djeWYYekdjWi_d]b[jh[[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nje[dikh[Wfhe]dei_ii[d#
i_j_l[jeZ_\\[h[dji_bl_YkbjkhWbh[]_c[i$
J^_dd_d] jof[ WdZ ijh[d]j^ Wh[ XWi[Z ed j^[ WffheWY^ Xo If[bbcWdd [j Wb$
'///" m^_Y^ Z[\_d[i j^_dd_d] ijh[d]j^ _d h[bWj_ed je cWn_ckc ijWdZ Z[di_jo
\ehZ_\\[h[djZec_dWdj^[_]^jYbWii[i:XX[b[hWdZIf[bbcWdd(&&'$:[l_Wj_ed
\hecj^[Wffhefh_Wj[ijWdZZ[di_joZ[\_d[ZXoIf[bbcWdd[jWb$'///_iki[Zje
Z[j[hc_d[fh_eh_j_[ie\j^_dd_d]je[dikh[ijWX_b_joXo^_]^b_]^j_d]Yh_j_YWbiWc#
fb[fbeji$7d_dj[h\WY[Wbbemi\ehY^Wd]_d]j^[Z[\Wkbji[jj_d]i\ehj^_dd_d]%^Wh#
l[ijh[]_c[iXoif[Y_\o_d]Z_\\[h_d]j^h[i^ebZlWbk[i\ehjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h"j^_dd_d]
ijh[d]j^"j^_dd_d]hWd][WdZcWn_ckc^Whl[ijWdZj^_dd_d]lebkc[$:_\\[h[dj
i[jj_d]iYWdX[if[Y_\_[Z\eh[WY^cWdW][c[djijhWjkci_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_j$J^_i
\[Wjkh[_i_cfehjWdjX[YWki[Z_\\[h[djYecX_dWj_edie\Ykhh[djWdZ\kjkh[ijWj[i
h[gk_h[_dZ_l_ZkWbbojW_beh[Zi_bl_YkbjkhWbh[]_c[i\ehWh[Wb_ij_Yfhe]dei_i$<eh[n#
Wcfb["W\j[hWdWboi_d]Ykhh[djjh[[if[Y_[iYecfei_j_ed"j^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[iYWd
X[ceZ_\_[Zje[nYbkZ[fWhj_YkbWhjh[[if[Y_[i\hecj^_dd_d]_\j^[_hfhefehj_ed
(*, #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
i^ekbZX[_dYh[Wi[Zm_j^h[if[Yjjej^[M;J$J^_ijof[e\j^_dd_d]h[]_c[if[Y_#
\_YWj_edYekbZX[Z[iYh_X[ZWiWZWjW#Zh_l[dWffheWY^HWkiY^[h'///$
È
'RAPHICALÈ0RESENTATIONÈOFÈ3IMULATIONÈ2ESULTS
J^[ekjfkje\Wbbj^[YWbYkbWj[ZZ_ijh_Xkj_ediekjb_d[ZWXel[_iZ_ifbWo[ZWiW
i[h_[ie\XWhY^Whji$F[hY[djW][ie\j^[\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWh[Wj^WjWYYekdj\ehY[hjW_d
8JÄM;JYecX_dWj_edii_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_jiWh[Z_ifbWo[ZWif_[Y^Whji$IY[dWh_e
i_ckbWj_edh[ikbjiWh[ijeh[Z_dWYecfh[ii[Z\ehc"_dYbkZ_d]j^[WiieY_Wj[Zi_b#
l_YkbjkhWbh[]_c[i"_dWdCI#799;IIZWjWXWi[$J^[i[h[ikbjiWbbem\ehWZlWdY[Z
WdWboi[i ikY^ Wi j^[ ckbj_#Yh_j[h_W lWb_ZWj_ed e\ Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj efj_edi
7bX[hj(&&)WdZj^[_Z[dj_\_YWj_ede\efj_cWbiebkj_ediki_d][nj[hdWbie\jmWh[
fWYaW][i[$]$@BF"BWff_'//($<_]kh['($)i^emiW\bemY^Whj\ehj^[Wffb_YWj_ed
e\j^[:II_dc_Z#j[hcfbWdd_d]WdZiY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_ed$
&IGÈÈ0ROGRAMÈORGANISATIONÈOFÈTHEÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ+30?$33È'5)È'RAPHICÈUSERÈIN
TERFACE
È %XAMPLES (*-
È
%XAMPLES
È
!UTOMATICÈ!SSIGNMENTÈOFÈ&ORESTÈ4YPESÈOFÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ/BJECTIVEÈ
7%4 ÈANDÈ3TRATIFICATIONÈOFÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ5NITS
<_hijm[mWdjje_bbkijhWj[j^[_d\bk[dY[e\if[Y_\_YYedl[hi_edhkb[ij^Wj[d#
ikh[j^[WY^_[l[c[dje\j^[]eWbiWdZeX`[Yj_l[ie\j^[BzM;fhe]hWc"ikY^Wi
_dYh[Wi_d]XheWZb[W\f[hY[djW][WdZf[hY[djW][ie\i_j[#WZWfj[Zjh[[if[Y_[i$M[
ki[f[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbej_dl[djehoZWjW\hecj^h[[Z_\\[h[dj\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yjibe#
YWj[Z_diekj^[hdBem[hIWnedoedfh[Zec_dWdjbolWh_[]Wj[ZiWdZijed[?WdZ
b_c[ijed[??WdZ_dj^[Bd[Xkh][h^[Wj^bWdZiedfh[Zec_dWdjboiWdZoie_bie\
]bWY_Wbeh_]_d???$H[ikbjie\j^[WkjecWj_YWii_]dc[dje\M;JiYedY[hd_d]i_j[
&IGÈÈ0ROPORTIONSÈOFÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈAREAÈCOVEREDÈBYÈFORESTÈTYPESÈOFÈMANAGEMENTÈOBJECTIVEÈ
7%4S ÈASÈAÈRESULTÈOFÈANÈAUTOMATICÈASSIGNMENTÈUSINGÈTHEÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ+30?$33ÈINÈ
THREEÈDIFFERENTÈFORESTÈDISTRICTSÈ!DDITIONALLYÈTHEÈDISTRIBUTIONÈOFÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈAREAÈPROPORTIONSÈ
THATÈAREÈCOVEREDÈBYÈDIFFERENTÈACTUALÈSTANDÈTYPESÈ"4S ÈISÈCALCULATED
(*. #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
#ODINGÈ 4REEÈSPECIESÈCOMBINATIONÈINÈ"4SÈANDÈ7%4SÈ&IGÈ
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈtOAK@
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈtBEECH@
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈt.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈALLÈSPRUCES @
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈt$OUGLASÈFIR@
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈt3COTSÈPINEÈALLÈPINES @
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈt%UROPEANÈLARCHÈALLÈLARCHES @
È !LLÈTYPESÈWITHÈDOMINANTÈSPECIESÈtWHITEÈFIRÈALLÈFIRS @
È PUREÈBEECHÈTYPE
È $OMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTYPE
È $OMINANTÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈWITHÈBEECHÈTYPE
ETCÈ
È 4REEÈSPECIESÈCOMBINATIONÈINÈSILVICULTURALÈSTRATAÈ&IGÈ
?È #ONVERSIONÈFROMÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTOÈDOMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCE
?È #ONVERSIONÈFROMÈPUREÈBEECHÈTOÈDOMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCE
?È $OMINANTÈOAKÈWHICHÈREMAINSÈDOMINANTÈOAK
ETCÈ
fhef[hj_[i WdZ j^[ Ykhh[dj ijWdZ jof[ 8J Wh[ fh[i[dj[Z _d <_]$'($*$ J^[ YeZ#
_d]e\Ykhh[djijWdZjof[i8JWdZijWdZjof[ie\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[M;J
_i Z[iYh_X[Z _d JWXb['($'$7bb i[]c[dji _d j^[ f_[ Y^Whji j^Wj Wh[ dej Z[i_]dWj#
[Z m_j^ ^_]^b_]^j[Z dkc[hWbi h[fh[i[dj if[Y_[i YecX_dWj_edi e\ c_deh _cfeh#
jWdY[" m^_Y^ j^[h[\eh[ Wh[ ]hekf[Z Xo Zec_dWdj if[Y_[i$ C_deh _cfehjWdY[ \eh
8JiWdZM;Ji_iZ[\_d[ZWiWf[hY[djW][e\b[iij^Wd+e\\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWh[WX[#
\eh[]hekf_d]XoZec_dWdjif[Y_[i$
È %XAMPLES (*/
8[YWki[e\j^[Z_\\[h[dji_j[YedZ_j_ediWdZYkhh[djijWdZYecfei_j_ede\j^[
\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yji"m_Z[bolWho_d]Z_ijh_Xkj_edie\M;Jih[ikbj$7jfh[i[dj"\eh[ijZ_i#
jh_Yj?_ifh_cWh_boYecfei[Ze\ijWdZjof[im_j^Zec_dWj_d]DehmWoifhkY[$Fhe#
if[Yj_l[boj^[cW_dY^Wd][iWh[W^[Wl_bo_dYh[Wi[Zfhefehj_ede\ijWdZiZec_#
dWj[Z Xo X[[Y^$ DehmWo ifhkY[#Zec_dWj[Z ijWdZi Wh[ Z[Yh[Wi[Z \hec Wffhen#
_cWj[bo +& je (+ e\ j^[ \eh[ij Z_ijh_Yj Wh[W$ IjWdZ jof[i Zec_dWj[Z Xo eWa eh
:ek]bWi \_h Wh[ ib_]^jbo _dYh[Wi[Z$ ?d j^[ b_c[ijed[#Zec_dWj[Z \eh[ij Z_ijh_Yj ??"
j^[^_]^fhefehj_ede\ijWdZij^WjWh[Zec_dWj[ZXoXheWZb[Wl[Zjh[[if[Y_[i_i
_dYh[Wi[Z[l[dceh[Xo[dbWh]_d]j^[fhefehj_ede\ijWdZjof[ij^WjWh[Zec_#
dWj[ZXoX[[Y^$J^[fhefehj_ede\ijWdZjof[iZec_dWj[ZXoeWa_iWbie_dYh[Wi[Z
ib_]^jbo$IjWdZjof[iZec_dWj[ZXoYed_\[hjh[[i"[if[Y_WbboDehmWoifhkY["Wh[Z[#
Yh[Wi[Z [l[d j^ek]^ j^[_h Ykhh[dj fhefehj_ed _i edbo WhekdZ (& e\ j^[ \eh[ij
Z_ijh_YjWh[W$
D[l[hj^[b[ii"j^[h[Wh[cW`ehZ_\\[h[dY[iX[jm[[dj^[\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yji?WdZ??
Zk[jej^[hkb[#XWi[Zi[b[Yj_ede\j^[WZZ_j_edWbjh[[if[Y_[i\ehj^[X[[Y^#Zec_#
dWj[ZijWdZi$7iekjb_d[Z_dj^[?djheZkYj_edjej^_iY^Wfj[h"ed[cW_dW_ce\j^[
BzM;fhe]hWc_i[d^WdY_d]j^[fhefehj_ede\c_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi$EdiWdZ#
ijed[jof_YWb\eh\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj?j^[WZZ_j_edWbjh[[if[Y_[i_dceijX[[Y^#Zec_#
dWj[ZijWdZi_iDehmWoifhkY["WdZm^[h[DehmWoifhkY[_ij^[Zec_dWdjif[Y_[i"
_j_il[hoe\j[dYecX_d[Zm_j^X[[Y^Wbie$>em[l[h"_d\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj??j^[lWh_[#
joe\WZZ_j_edWbjh[[if[Y_[i_dX[[Y^#Zec_dWj[ZijWdZi_ibWh][h$?d\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj
??X[[Y^_ie\j[dYecX_d[Zm_j^DehmWoifhkY["eWa";khef[WdbWhY^WdZXheWZ#
b[Wl[Zjh[[if[Y_[im_j^^_]^hejWj_edW][$
<eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj???_iZec_dWj[ZXofkh[IYejif_d[ijWdZiWdZ c_n[ZijWdZi
e\IYejif_d[WdZDehmWoifhkY[$J^[Yedl[hi_edfheY[iiWYYehZ_d]jej^[BzM;
fhe]hWcm_bbb[WZjeM;Jij^WjWh[ij_bbZec_dWj[ZXoYed_\[hjh[[if[Y_[iWdZj^[
f[hY[djW][e\:ek]bWi\_h#Zec_dWj[ZijWdZi_i_dYh[Wi[Z^[Wl_bo$?dWbbM;Jie\
^_]^[h_cfehjWdY["X[[Y^_iki[ZWiWdWZZ_j_edWbjh[[if[Y_[i$J^[h[_iW^_]^[h
f[hY[djW][e\M;Jim_j^Zec_dWdjeWaYecfWh[Zje\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yji?WdZ??$
&IGÈÈ!UTOMATICÈSTRATIFICATIONÈOFÈSILVICULTURALÈUNITSÈCOMBINATIONSÈOFÈ"4ÈANDÈ7%4 ÈANDÈAS
SOCIATEDÈPROPORTIONSÈOFÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈAREAÈUSINGÈTHEÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈSYSTEMÈ+30?$33ÈFORÈFOR
ESTÈDISTRICTÈ)
(+& #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
J^[_bbkijhWj[ZWii_]dc[dje\M;Jifhel_Z[ij^[XWi_i\ehWijhWj_\_YWj_ede\
i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_jicWdW][c[djijhWjW$7bb_dl[djehofbejim_j^j^[iWc[Yec#
X_dWj_ed e\ Ykhh[dj ijWdZ jof[ 8J WdZ ijWdZ jof[ e\ cWdW][c[dj eX`[Yj_l[
M;JWh[YbWii_\_[Z_djej^[iWc[i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_j<_]$'($+$<ehed[i_bl_Ykb#
jkhWbkd_jj^[iWc[i[je\lWbk[i\ehj^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i[$]$jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h_i
Wffb_[Z$J^[Z_\\[h[dY[i_dW][m_j^_dWijhWjkcWh[Yedi_Z[h[ZZ_h[Yjboki_d]j^[
j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ijhkb[XWi[If[bbcWdd[jWb$'///XoZ[\_d_j_ede\Z_\\[h[dj
Zec_dWdj^[_]^jYbWii[i\ehm^_Y^Z_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[djiYWdX[Wffb_[Z$J^[YbWii_#
\_YWj_ede\i[fWhWj[8JiWdZM;JiYecX_dWj_edie\b[iij^[d+e\j^[\eh[ijZ_i#
jh_YjWh[WWh[]hekf[ZXoj^[Zec_dWdjif[Y_[ih[]WhZ_d]Xej^Ykhh[djijWjkiWdZ
jof[e\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[$<_]kh['($+i^emij^[h[ikbj_d]i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_ji
WdZj^[_hf[hY[djW][ie\\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWh[W\eh\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj?$
È
3CENARIOÈ3IMULATIONSÈ!PPLYINGÈ$IFFERENTÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ4REATMENTS
I_dY[j^[ijhkYjkh[e\j^[Ykhh[djijWjkiWdZj^[jof[e\cWdW][c[djeX`[Y#
j_l[Wh[j^[cW_di_bl_YkbjkhWb\WYjehi_d\bk[dY_d]j^[Yedl[hi_edfheY[ii"j^[:II
Wbbemi\ehj^[if[Y_\_YWj_ede\if[Y_\_Yjh[Wjc[dji\eh[WY^i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_j$J^[
[\\[Yj e\ j^[ Z[Y_i_ed lWh_WXb[i jWh][j Z_Wc[j[h" cWn_ckc ^Whl[ij lebkc[ WdZ
j^_dd[Z XWiWb Wh[W _i fh[i[dj[Z ki_d] j^[ f[hcWd[dj iWcfb[ fbej ZWjW e\ ijhW#
jkc+&U(+Yedl[hi_ede\fkh[DehmWoifhkY[jeZec_dWdjX[[Y^m_j^DehmWo
ifhkY[\hec\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj?<_]$'($+$7YecfWh_ied_icWZ[ki_d]j^[Z[\Wkbj
lWbk[iWdZWi[YedZi[je\Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[ih[fh[i[dj_d]Wceh[_dj[di_l[Wbj[h#
dWj_l[e\j^_dd_d]WdZWceh[ceZ[hWj[Wbj[hdWj_l[e\^Whl[ijJWXb['($($7Z#
Z_j_edWbj^h[i^ebZlWbk[im_j^h[if[YjjeWiiehjc[djYWbYkbWj_edWh[Wbem[hded#
kj_b_iWXb[ i[]c[dj e\ (c b[d]j^ m_j^ heej hej WdZ Wd kff[h Z_Wc[j[h e\ ')Yc
4ABLEÈÈ 4WOÈ ALTERNATIVESÈ OFÈ DECISIONÈ VARIABLESÈ APPLIEDÈ INÈ SCENARIOÈ SIMULATIONSÈ FORÈ THEÈÈ
SILVICULTURALÈSTRATUMÈ?ÈCONVERSIONÈOFÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTOÈDOMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.OR
WAYÈSPRUCE ÈFROMÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈ)
$EFAULTÈVALUESÈ
SCENARIOÈ) È È È È È È
!LTERNATIVEÈVALUESÈ
SCENARIOÈ)) È È È È È È
È %XAMPLES (+'
m_j^XWhai_ckbjWd[ekibo[nY[[Z_d]Wc_d_ckcb[d]j^e\+c\ehhekdZj_cX[h$
J^[i[j^h[i^ebZlWbk[i\ehWiiehjc[dji^Wl[X[[dWffb_[Z\ehXej^iY[dWh_ei_c#
kbWj_edi$
J^[el[hWbbijWdZ_d]lebkc[_i).-c)%^W_dXWhaWjj^[o[Wh(&&&WdZ*.&c)%
^W_dXWhaWjj^[o[Wh(&(&\ehiY[dWh_e??WdZ)//c)%^W_dXWha\ehiY[dWh_e?$
J^[lebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_edXo:8>YbWii[i\ehj^[iY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edki_d]Z[\Wkbj
lWbk[ii^emij^[_dYh[Wi_d]Wcekdje\^Whl[ij[Zlebkc[[nY[[Z_d]j^[:8>YbWii
e\**YcWiWh[ikbje\Y^eei_d]WjWh][jZ_Wc[j[he\*+Yc<_]$'($,$?dj^[Z[Y#
WZ[i\ebbem_d](&(&"Wd_dYh[Wi_d]Wcekdje\j_cX[hm_bbX[^Whl[ij[ZWYYehZ_d]
jejWh][jZ_Wc[j[h"W]W_dfe_dj_d]ekjj^[fheXb[ce\el[hi_p[Zj_cX[h_\jWh][j
Z_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]_idejWffb_[ZYedi[gk[djbo$J^[WiieY_Wj[Zlebkc[Z_ijh_Xk#
j_edXoWiiehjc[dji^Wi_ji[cf^Wi_iWjYbWii[iB(XWdZB)W"m^_Y^_ij^[fheZkY#
j_edjWh][j\ehDehmWoifhkY[_dBem[hIWnedo$
J^[ lebkc[ Z_ijh_Xkj_ed _d iY[dWh_e ?? i^emi Wd _dYh[Wi_d] Wcekdj e\ jWh#
][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ijijWhj_d]Wj:8>YbWii+,YcX[YWki[j^[jWh][jZ_Wc[j[hmWi
hW_i[Zje++Yc$J^[el[hWbbWcekdje\jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_i.(c)%^W_dXWha
+*c)%^Wc[hY^WdjWXb[iehj[Zlebkc[YecfWh[Zje'-,c)%^W_dXWha'',c)%^W
c[hY^WdjWXb[iehj[Zlebkc[_diY[dWh_e?$<ehWYecfWh_ied"j^[j^_dd_d]leb#
kc[e\jh[[i[nY[[Z_d]*+Yc:8>_diY[dWh_e??mWiikcc[Zkfm_j^j^[jWh][j
Z_Wc[j[h^Whl[ijWcekdje\jh[[i[nY[[Z_d]++Yc:8>$?diY[dWh_e??W^_]^[h
fhefehj_ede\j^[Wiiehjc[djYbWii[iB'XWdZB(W_ieXjW_d[Ziej^Wjj^[Wiiehj#
c[djijhkYjkh[_ib[ii\WlekhWXb[j^Wd_diY[dWh_e?$7bblWbk[iWh[f[h_eZ_YYWbYk#
bWj_edi\eh(&o[WhijWa_d]_djeWYYekdjWbbfbeji\hecj^[+&U(+ijhWjkc$
J^[el[hWbbj^_dd_d]lebkc[\ehjh[[ib[iij^Wd*+Yc_d:8>_i')&c)%^W_d
XWha\ehiY[dWh_e??WdZ'&,c)%^W_dXWha\ehiY[dWh_e?$M^_b[j^[j^_dd_d]_d#
j[di_jo_i^_]^[h_diY[dWh_e??"_jYWddejYecfb[j[boYekdj[hWYjj^[b[ii_dj[di_l[
jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij"iej^Wjj^[h[_iW^_]^[hWYYkckbWj_ede\j_cX[h_d:8>
YbWii[i\hec*&je+,Yc$J^_ic_]^jYWki[WfheXb[ce\el[hi_p[Zj_cX[h_dj^[
\kjkh[_\j^[^k][Wcekdje\^Whl[ijXojWh][jZ_Wc[j[hYWddejX[iebZ\ehiec[
o[Whi X[YWki[ e\ iWb[ fheXb[ci eh b_c_j[Z WlW_bWXb[ bWXekh$ <eh DehmWo ifhkY["
j^[[d^WdY[ZlWbk[i\ehjWh][jZ_Wc[j[hYWki[Wd_dYh[Wi_d]h_iae\Z[\[YjXoheej
hejZ_i[Wi[$
<_]kh['($-fh[i[dji*&#WdZ,&#o[Whfhe]dei[ie\j^[Wiiehjc[djijhkYjkh[Wi#
ikc_d]j^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[iZ[\_d[Z\ehiY[dWh_ei?WdZ??$J^[i[iY[dWh_ei]_l[
Wd_cfh[ii_ede\\kjkh[cWha[j_d]fheXb[ciYWki[ZXoel[hi_p[Zj_cX[heh_hh[]#
kbWh^Whl[ijWcekdji$;l[d_diY[dWh_e??j^[fhefehj_ede\Wiiehjc[djYbWiiB)X
edboib_]^jbo_dYh[Wi[iWdZdefheXb[cm_j^el[hi_p[Zj_cX[hm_bbeYYkh_\Wbbj_c#
X[hYWdX[iebZ$>em[l[h"j^[^Whl[ijWcekdjiWh[gk_j[lWh_WXb[m_j^+*c)%^W_d
j^[\_hij"'(,c)%^W_dj^[i[YedZWdZ'-*c)%^We\iehj[Zc[hY^WdjWXb[lebkc[
m_j^ekjXWha_dj^[j^_hZ(&#o[Whf[h_eZ$J^_i_i[gk_lWb[djje.("'..WdZ(++c)%
^W_dXWha_dYbkZ_d]Wbblebkc[ikfjeW-#Yckff[hZ_Wc[j[h$J^[^k][^Whl[ij
Wcekdj_dj^[i[YedZWdZ[if[Y_Wbboj^[j^_hZ(&#o[Whf[h_eZ"m^_Y^_id[Y[iiWho
jeWle_ZWiiehjc[djYbWii[i[nY[[Z_d]B)X"c_]^jYWki[cWha[j_d]fheXb[ci"WdZ
kdiebZj_cX[hlebkc[m_bbh[ikbj_del[hi_p[Zj_cX[hW]W_d$?diY[dWh_e?edboW
b_jjb[^Whl[ijlebkc[m_bb[nY[[ZYbWiiB)Wem_d]jej^[icWbb[hjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h$
J^[^Whl[ijWcekdjiWh[ceh[kd_\ehcboZ_ijh_Xkj[Zm_j^'',"'/-WdZ'+,c)%
^W e\ iehj[Z c[hY^WdjWXb[ lebkc[ _d j^[ j^h[[ (&#o[Wh f[h_eZi$ J^[ [gk_lWb[dj
(+( #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
&IGÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈTWOÈSCENARIOÈSIMULATIONSÈÈYEARS ÈFORÈTHEÈSILVICULTURALÈSTRATUMÈ?È
CONVERSIONÈOFÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTOÈDOMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCE ÈFROMÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈ
)È,EFTÈGRAPHÈPRESENTSÈVOLUMEÈDISTRIBUTIONSÈBYÈ$"(ÈCLASSESÈANDÈRIGHTÈGRAPHÈVOLUMEÈDISTRIBUTIONÈ
BYÈASSORTMENTÈCLASSESÈ"LUEÈBARSÈREPRESENTÈTHEÈACTUALÈSTATEÈ ÈMEDIUMÈBLUEÈBARSÈTHEÈSTATEÈÈ
È %XAMPLES (+)
jejWblebkc[i_dXWhaWh['-,")&&WdZ(),c)%^W$IY[dWh_e?h[ikbji_dceh[kd_#
\ehc^Whl[ijWcekdji"Xkjj^[jejWbWcekdje\c[hY^WdjWXb[j_cX[h_i[l[d^_]^#
[hiej^WjcWha[j_d]fheXb[cim_bbeYYkhWim[bb$7dej^[hfheXb[cc_]^jX[j^Wj
j^[ ikffbo e\ j_cX[h W\j[h (&,& m_bb Z[Yh[Wi[ hWf_Zbo _d iY[dWh_e ?$ ?d j^_i Yed#
j[njm[^Wl[jeYedi_Z[hj^WjWd_d]hemj^hWj[_idejo[j[ij_cWj[ZXoj^[i_ckbW#
jeh$D[l[hj^[b[ii"j^[Yedl[hi_ed\hecfkh[DehmWoifhkY[ijWdZijeijWdZim_j^
Zec_dWdjX[[Y^m_j^DehmWoifhkY[m_bbZ[Yh[Wi[j^[_d]hemj^hWj[e\DehmWo
ifhkY[$
J^[h[\eh["WYecX_dWj_ede\Xej^iY[dWh_eifheXWXbomekbZfhel_Z[WX[jj[h
Wbj[hdWj_l[ki_d]j^h[i^ebZlWbk[ie\iY[dWh_e?\ehj^[\_hijf[h_eZWdZWib_]^j#
bo_dYh[Wi[ZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[hWdZZ[Yh[Wi[ZcWn_ckc^Whl[ijlebkc[\ehj^[bWj#
[hf[h_eZi$
J^[[nWcfb[]_l[d_dj^_ii[Yj_ed_bbkijhWj[iWjof_YWbfheXb[c_dijhWj[]_Y\eh#
[ijfbWdd_d]WdZj^[Wffb_YWj_ede\j^[:II_dfhel_Z_d]_d\ehcWj_edjeikffehj
fheXb[c iebl_d] WdZ Z[Y_i_ed cWa_d]$ J^[ fh[i[dj[Z lebkc[ Z_ijh_Xkj_edi Xo
:8>WdZWiiehjc[djYbWii[iWh[edboed[fWhje\j^[h[ikbjij^WjYWdX[YWbYkbWj#
[Zm_j^j^[:II$J^[fhe]hWcfhel_Z[ii[l[hWbZ_ijh_Xkj_edjof[ijeZ[iYh_X[ki#
[h#Z[\_d[ZijhWjWehj^[jejWb\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[0
v :_ijh_Xkj_ediXo:8>YbWii[iWdZWiiehjc[djYbWii[i0
<h[gk[dYoZ_ijh_Xkj_ed1
8WiWbWh[WZ_ijh_Xkj_ed1
Lebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_edjejWblebkc[[nY[[Z_d]-Yc1
Lebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_edc[hY^WdjWXb[Xkjjbe]lebkc[1
Lebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_edc[hY^WdjWXb[kff[hbe]lebkc[1
Lebkc[Z_ijh_Xkj_edded#c[hY^WdjWXb[lebkc[e\ijkcfi"lebkc[l_ebWj#
_d]Wiiehjc[djj^h[i^ebZlWbk[i"ded#c[hY^WdjWXb[lebkc[e\heejheji[]#
c[dji"[jY$$
È
&URTHERÈ$ESCRIPTIONÈFORÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ5NITSÈ
ORÈ!NYÈ5SER
$EFINEDÈ3TRATIFICATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ&ORESTÈ$ISTRICT
J^[WXel[i[Yj_ed_bbkijhWj[ij^[a_dZie\_d\ehcWj_edfhel_Z[ZXoj^[:IIje
Z[iYh_X[i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_jiehj^[m^eb[\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[XWi[Zedc[WdZ_ijh_Xk#
j_edie\j^[Ykhh[djijWjki"j^[\kjkh[ijWjkiWdZj^[Wcekdje\j^_dd_d]WdZ^Wh#
l[ij$7ZZ_j_edWbbo"f[hY[djW][ie\j^[\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWh[WYel[h[ZXoijWdZjof[i
m_j^Y[hjW_dfhef[hj_[iYWdX[YWbYkbWj[Z$J^[h[\eh["j^[fhefehj_edie\ijhWj_\_[Z
_dl[djeho fbeji j^Wj ^Wl[ X[[d Wii[ii[Z _d j^[ \_[bZ _dl[djeho f^Wi[ ^Wl[ je X[
INÈÈANDÈPALEÈBLUEÈBARSÈTHEÈAMOUNTÈOFÈTHINNINGÈANDÈTARGETÈDIAMETERÈHARVESTÈWITHINÈTHEÈPLAN
NINGÈ PERIODÈ nÈ 4RANSLATIONSÈ .UTZUNGENÈ È -ORTALITËTÈ È STEHENDESÈ 4OTHOLZÈ )NVENTUR ÈÈ
REMOVALÈÈMORTALITYÈÈSTANDINGÈDEADÈWOODÈINVENTORY È6OLUMENÈVOLUMEÈ"($
3TUFENÈDIAMETERÈ
CLASSESÈ-ITTENSTËRKENÈASSORTMENTSÈBYÈMIDDLEÈDIAMETER
(+* #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
&IGÈÈ 2ESULTSÈ OFÈ THEÈ SCENARIOÈ SIMULATIONSÈ È ANDÈ ÈYEARS È FORÈ THEÈ SILVICULTURALÈ STRATUMÈ
?ÈCONVERSIONÈOFÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTOÈDOMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCE ÈFROMÈFOR
ESTÈ DISTRICTÈ )È 6OLUMEÈ DISTRIBUTIONSÈ BYÈ ASSORTMENTÈ CLASSESÈ WEREÈ CALCULATEDÈ TOÈ PROVIDEÈ INFOR
MATIONÈ ABOUTÈ CHANGESÈ INÈ THEÈ ASSORTMENTÈ STRUCTUREÈ WHICHÈ COULDÈ CAUSEÈ MARKETINGÈ PROBLEMSÈ
È %XAMPLES (++
Yedl[hj[ZXom[_]^j_d]X[YWki[e\j^[jme#f^Wi[_dl[djehoZ[i_]d$J^[:IIWb#
bemi\ehijhWj_\_YWj_edXoj^[ijWdZlWh_WXb[ib_ij[ZX[bem0
v IjWdZ_d]lebkc[e\b_l_d]jh[[i$
v JejWbXWiWbWh[We\b_l_d]jh[[i$
v Lebkc[e\ijWdZ_d]Z[WZmeeZWii[ii[ZXo_dl[djeho$
v Lebkc[e\bo_d]Z[WZmeeZWii[ii[ZXo_dl[djeho$
v :ec_dWdj^[_]^je\j^[Zec_dWdjjh[[if[Y_[i$
v Lebkc[_dYh[c[djfh[Z_Yj[ZXoj^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$
v 7cekdje\j^_dd_d]fh[Z_Yj[ZXoj^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$
v 7cekdje\^Whl[ijfh[Z_Yj[ZXoj^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$
v CehjWb_jofh[Z_Yj[ZXoj^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$
IjWj[lWh_WXb[im_j^Y^Wd][iZk[jejh[[]hemj^"j^_dd_d]"^Whl[ijWdZcehjWb#
_jo"ikY^WiijWdZ_d]lebkc["Wh[YWbYkbWj[Z\ehj^[Ykhh[djWdZ\kjkh[ijWjki$J^[
Z_ijh_Xkj_ediYWdX[YWbYkbWj[Z\ehj^[m^eb[\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWim[bbWi\ehWdoYec#
X_dWj_ede\Ykhh[djijWjki8J"ijWdZjof[e\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[M;JWdZ
i_j[$ <_]kh['($. fh[i[dji Z_ijh_Xkj_edi e\ \eh[ij Z_ijh_Yj f[hY[djW][i Xo i[b[Yj[Z
ijWdZlWh_WXb[i\ehj^[i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_j+&U(+\hec\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj?$<ehijWj[lWh#
_WXb[ij^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ediZ[iYh_X_d]j^[\kjkh[ijWjkiWh[Z_ifbWo[Z$J^_dd_d]WdZ
^Whl[ijWYj_l_j_[i_dj^_i[nWcfb[Wh[Yedjhebb[ZXoWffbo_d]j^[Z[\WkbjlWbk[ie\
iY[dWh_e?JWXb['($($
7ic[dj_ed[Z_dj^[_djheZkYj_ed"j^[Yedl[hi_edjec_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZiWdZ
j^[ lWh_[jo e\ feii_Xb[ jh[Wjc[dji Yecfb_YWj[i j^[ Z[j[hc_dWj_ed e\ ckbj_\kdY#
j_edWb ikijW_dWX_b_jo$ ?dij[WZ e\ j^[eh[j_YWb efj_cWb ]k_Z[b_d[i" Wi _d j^[ dehcWb
\eh[ij ceZ[b" i_ckbWj_edi YWd fhel_Z[ _d\ehcWj_ed WXekj \kjkh[ \eh[ij Z[l[bef#
c[dj$<_]kh['($/fh[i[djiZ_ijh_Xkj_ediXo_dYh[c[djWdZ^Whl[ijWcekdjYbWii#
[i\ehW(&#o[Whfhe]dei_iWffbo_d]YedjheblWh_WXb[ie\iY[dWh_e??"m^_Y^YWdX[
YecfWh[Zm_j^j^[WiieY_Wj[ZZ_ijh_Xkj_edie\iY[dWh_e?<_]$'($.$?dYecX_dW#
j_edm_j^YWbYkbWj_edie\c[WdZ_ijh_Xkj_edi\ehi_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_jiWifh[i[dj[Z_d
<_]i$'($,WdZ'($-j^[i[Z_ijh_Xkj_edi\ehZ[iYh_X_d]\eh[ijWh[Wfhefehj_ediWh[
ki[\kb _d Z[j[hc_d_d] WZWfj[Z cWdW][c[dj h[]_c[i" [dikh_d] ikijW_dWX_b_jo e\
ckbj_fb[\eh[ij\kdYj_edi$
È
2EGENERATIONÈ3TATUS
H[][d[hWj_ed_iWii[ii[Zed[WY^f[hcWd[djiWcfb[fbejWijh[[if[Y_[i#if[#
Y_\_Yj^h[[#YbWii^[_]^jZ_ijh_Xkj_edm_j^^[_]^jYbWii[i&Ä+&"+&Ä')&WdZ[nY[[Z#
_d]')&YcWdZi_ckbjWd[ekibo\Wbb_d]X[bem-Yc:8>$J^_i_d\ehcWj_ed_iYhk#
Y_Wb \eh fbWdd_d] j^[ d[Y[iiWho Wcekdj e\ Whj_\_Y_Wb h[][d[hWj_ed _d j^[ Yedl[h#
"LUEÈBARSÈREPRESENTÈTHEÈACTUALÈSTATEÈ ÈMEDIUMÈBLUEÈBARSÈTHEÈSTATEÈINÈÈANDÈPALEÈ
BLUEÈBARSÈTHEÈAMOUNTÈOFÈTHINNINGSÈANDÈTARGETÈDIAMETERÈHARVESTÈWITHINÈTHEÈPLANNINGÈPERIODSÈ&ORÈ
TRANSLATIONSÈSEEÈ&IGÈ
(+, #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
&IGÈÈ 0ERCENTAGEÈ DISTRIBUTIONÈ OFÈ SELECTEDÈ STANDÈ VARIABLESÈ FORÈ THEÈ SILVICULTURALÈ UNITÈ ?È
CONVERSIONÈOFÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTOÈDOMINANTÈBEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCE ÈOFÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈ)È
APPLYINGÈTHEÈCONTROLÈVARIABLESÈOFÈSCENARIOÈ)ÈDEFAULTÈVALUES
È 3UMMARY (+-
i_edfheY[iiWdZ\eh_d_j_Wb_i_d]ceZ[bi\ehfh[Z_Yj_ede\h[][d[hWj_edZ[l[bef#
c[djWdZ_d]hemj^hWj[ie\jh[[i[nY[[Z_d]W:8>e\-YcZkh_d]W]hemj^f[h_#
eZ$7ic[dj_ed[ZX[\eh["_d]hemj^YWddejX[fh[Z_Yj[ZXoj^[Ykhh[djl[hi_ede\
j^[:II$>em[l[h"j^[fhe]hWcfhel_Z[iWYecfh[^[di_l[WdWboi_ie\j^[Ykhh[dj
ijWjki"Wbbem_d]\ehWYWbYkbWj_ede\jh[[#if[Y_\_YZ_ijh_Xkj_edie\\eh[ijWh[WiYel#
[h[ZXoZ_\\[h[djh[][d[hWj_edZ[di_j_[i$IjhWj_\_YWj_edYWdX[YedZkYj[ZXoYkh#
h[djijWjki8J"ijWdZjof[e\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[M;JWdZi_j[$7ZZ_j_ed#
Wbbo"j^[fhe]hWcWbbemi\ehWZ_\\[h[dj_Wj_edXo^[_]^jYbWii[iWdZlWho_d]ZWc#
W][ijWj[iYWki[ZXoXhemi_d]WdZXWhaf[[b_d]$J^[jejWb\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjWh[WWdZ
j^[Wh[We\j^[i[b[Yj[ZijhWjkcYWdX[Z[\_d[Zefj_edWbboWih[\[h[dY[\ehj^[YWb#
YkbWj_ede\Wh[Wf[hY[djW][i$<_]kh['($'&_bbkijhWj[ij^[WdWboi_ie\h[][d[hWj_ed
ijWjki\ehj^[i_bl_YkbjkhWbkd_j+&U(+Yedl[hi_ede\fkh[DehmWoifhkY[jeZec#
_dWdjX[[Y^m_j^DehmWoifhkY[\hec\eh[ijZ_ijh_Yj?$
È
3UMMARY
7i\eh[ijcWdW][c[djijhWj[]_[iY^Wd][WdZWiceh[\eh[ijbWdZ_iYedl[hj[Z
jec_n[Z#if[Y_[iijWdZi"\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehi^Wl[X[Yec[ceh[_cfehjWdj
\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\i_bl_YkbjkhWbijhWj[]_[iWdZ_dYedZkYj_d]\eh[ijfbWdd_d]$
>em[l[h"_dehZ[hje^WdZb[bWh][Wcekdjie\\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW"jei[jkf\eh#
[ijcWdW][c[djfbWdiWdZje[lWbkWj[Wbj[hdWj_l[i"\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehid[[Z
jeX[[nj[dZ[ZjeX[Wh[Wb^[bf\ehZ[Y_i_edcWa_d]$8oj^[\kdZ_d]e\j^[?JC
fhe`[Yjj^[<eh[ijH[i[WhY^IjWj_ede\Bem[hIWnedo^WiZ[l[bef[ZikY^Wioij[c
_dYeef[hWj_edm_j^j^[IjWj[<eh[ijFbWdd_d]7][dYo$
?d j^[ Z_iYkii_ed m_j^ j^[ Yeef[hWj_ed fWhjd[h m[ h[Wb_i[Z j^Wj j^[ ioij[c
d[[ZijeX[i_cfb[WdZ[Wiojeki[$7jj^_ife_dj"WkjecWj_Yi[b[Yj_ede\j^[X[ij
iY[dWh_e_idejZ[i_hWXb[$?dij[WZ_j_iceh[_cfehjWdj\ehj^[WYY[fjWdY[WdZYec#
\ehje\ekhfWhjd[hj^Wjj^[h[ikbjiWh[kdZ[hijWdZWXb[WdZj^Wjj^[\eh[ijhofhe#
\[ii_edWbiYWdki[j^[fhe]hWcWdZj^[ekjfkjjeZ[h_l[j^[_hemdYedYbki_edi$
J^[ceij_cfehjWdj_d\ehcWj_ed\ehekhfWhjd[h_ij^[Ykhh[djWdZ\kjkh[Z_Wc#
[j[hWiiehjc[djZ_ijh_Xkj_edXoif[Y_[iWdZijhWjW"Wim[bbWij^[Z_ijh_Xkj_ede\
j^_dd_d]WdZ^Whl[ijcWj[h_Wb$<ehWdWboi[ie\Z_\\[h[djiY[dWh_ei"j^[Y^Wd][_d
jWh][jZ_Wc[j[hWdZj^[Y^Wd][e\j^[j^_dd_d]fhe]hWcXoijhWjWm[h[e\]h[Wj#
[ij_dj[h[ij$?dj^[c[Wdj_c[m[^Wl[Z[l[bef[ZWYedY[fj_edWb\hWc[meha_dj^[
\ehce\WYecfkj[hfhe]hWci[[<_]$'($)m^_Y^Wbbemi\ehc_Z#WdZbed]#j[hc
iY[dWh_ei_ckbWj_edijeikffehjijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]$M[^Wl[j[ij[Zj^[fhe]hWc
m_j^h[Wb_dl[djehoZWjW$J^[j[ijim[h[iWj_i\WYjeho\ehekhfWhjd[hW\j[hc_deh
WZ`kijc[dji$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ4HISÈWORKÈWASÈFUNDEDÈBYÈTHEÈ%5È0ROJECTÈ)4-È)MPLEMENTINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ
-ODELSÈASÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ4OOLS È0ROJECTÈNUMBERÈ1,24ÈnÈ4HANKSÈAREÈEXTENDEDÈ
TOÈ0ROFÈ$RÈ(ASENAUERÈFORÈLEADINGÈANDÈMANAGINGÈTHEÈPROJECTÈ)4-
(+. #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
&IGÈÈ0ERCENTAGEÈDISTRIBUTIONÈOFÈSELECTEDÈ
STANDÈVARIABLESÈFORÈSILVICULTURALÈUNITÈ?ÈCON
VERSIONÈOFÈPUREÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈTOÈDOMINANTÈ
BEECHÈWITHÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCE ÈOFÈFORESTÈDISTRICTÈ)È
APPLYINGÈTHEÈCONTROLÈVARIABLESÈOFÈSCENARIOÈ))
&IGÈÈ$IFFERENTÈAREAÈPERCENTAGEÈ
DISTRIBUTIONSÈBYÈDENSITYÈCLASSESÈOFÈÈ
REGENERATIONÈ)NÈTHEÈUPPERÈGRAPHSÈTHEÈ
COLORÈPATTERNSÈOFÈTHEÈBARSÈREPRESENTÈTHEÈ
HEIGHTÈCLASSÈCATEGORIESÈ"LUEÈBARSÈLESSÈ
THANÈÈCMÈINÈHEIGHTÈMEDIUMÈBLUEÈBARSÈ
nÈCMÈINÈHEIGHTÈANDÈPALEÈBLUEÈBARSÈ
GREATERÈTHANÈÈMÈINÈHEIGHT
È 3UMMARY (+/
(,& #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Jh[[CeZ[bi\ehI_bl_YkbjkhWb:[Y_i_edCWa_d]
2EFERENCES
!LBERTÈ -È È !NALYSEÈ UNDÈ MULTIKRITERIELLEÈ "EWERTUNGÈ ALTERNATIVERÈ 7ALDENTWICKLUNGSSZE
NARIENÈ MITÈ (ILFEÈ DESÈ !NALYTISCHENÈ (IERARCHIEPROZESSESÈ $EUTSCHERÈ 6ERBANDÈ &ORSTLICHERÈ
&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈ3EKTIONÈ%RTRAGSKUNDEÈ4ORGAUÈPPÈn
"ÚCKMANNÈ4È È-ÚGLICHKEITENÈUNDÈ'RENZENÈVONÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLENÈAUSÈ3ICHTÈDERÈ
FORSTLICHENÈ0RAXISÈ*AHRESTAGUNGÈDERÈ!'È&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈ%ISENACH4HàRINGENÈ0ROGNOSENÈ
INÈDERÈ&ORSTEINRICHTUNGÈ%INSATZÈUNDÈ'RENZENÈVONÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSMODELLENPPÈn
"ÚCKMANNÈ4È3PELLMANNÈ(È(àSINGÈ&È È.EUKONZEPTIONÈUNDÈ7EITERENTWICKLUNGÈDERÈ&ORST
EINRICHTUNGÈINÈDENÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDESFORSTENÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
$AHMÈ3È3ABOROWSKIÈ*È È.EUKONZEPTIONÈDERÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ+ONTROLLSTICHPROBEÈ$EUT
SCHERÈ6ERBANDÈ&ORSTLICHERÈ&ORSCHUNGSANSTALTENÈ3EKTIONÈ&ORSTLICHEÈ"IOMETRIEÈUNDÈ)NFORMA
TIKÈ&REIBURGÈPPÈn
$ÚBBELERÈ(È3PELLMANNÈ(È È-ETHODOLOGICALÈAPPROACHÈTOÈSIMULATEÈANDÈEVALUATEÈSILVICULTU
RALÈSTRATEGIESÈUNDERÈCLIMATEÈCHANGEÈ&ORSTWISSÈ#ENTRALBLÈÈ;3UPPLÈÈ'ERMANÈ&ORESTÈ3ECTORÈ
5NDERÈ'LOBALÈ#HANGE=n
(AUSKELLERÈ (
-È È 7ALDBAULICHEÈ UNDÈ BETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHEÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSHILFENÈ ZURÈ
$URCHFORSTUNGÈ UNDÈ ¯BERFàHRUNGÈ VONÈ +IEFERBESTËNDENÈ IMÈ +LEINPRIVATWALDÈ $ISSERTATIONÈ
&AKULTËTÈFàRÈ&ORSTWISSENSCHAFTENÈUNDÈ7ALDÚKOLOGIEÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ'ÚTTINGENÈÈPP
(ILLEBRANDÈ+È È3IMULATIONÈWALDBAULICHERÈ%INGRIFFSFOLGENÈFàRÈ"UCHEN
ÈUNDÈ&ICHTEN
-ISCH
BESTËNDEÈMITÈ6OGELBEEREÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTZ$ERÈ7ALDÈn
+NAUFTÈ &
*È È %NTWICKLUNGÈ VONÈ -ETHODENÈ ZURÈ ')3
GESTàTZTENÈ 6ISUALISIERUNGÈ VONÈ 7ALD
ENTWICKLUNGSSZENARIENÈ$ISSERTATIONÈ&AKULTËTÈFàRÈ&ORSTWISSENSCHAFTENÈUNDÈ7ALDÚKOLOGIEÈ
5NIVERSITËTÈ'ÚTTINGENÈÈPP
+ONITZERÈ !È È 7ALDUMBAUMANAHMENÈ UNDÈ IHREÈ BETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHENÈ !USWIRKUNGENÈ
nÈEINEÈ')3
GESTàTZTEÈ5NTERSUCHUNGÈAMÈ"EISPIELÈDESÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ(ARZESÈ2EIHEÈ!È"DÈ
È&ORSCHUNGSZENTRUMÈ7ALDÚKOSYSTEMEÈ5NIVERSITËTÈ'ÚTTINGENÈÈPP
,APPIÈ *È È *,0È AÈ LINEARÈ PROGRAMMINGÈ PACKAGEÈ FORÈ MANAGEMENTÈ PLANNINGÈ 0APÈÈ 4HEÈ
&INNISHÈ&ORESTÈ2ESEARCHÈ)NSTITUTEÈÈPP
.AGELÈ*È È!NWENDUNGSPROGRAMMÈZURÈ"ESTANDESBEWERTUNGÈUNDÈZURÈ0ROGNOSEÈDERÈ"ESTAN
DESENTWICKLUNGÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
.AGELÈ *È !LBERTÈ -È 3CHMIDTÈ -È È $ASÈ WALDBAULICHEÈ 0ROGNOSE
È UNDÈ %NTSCHEIDUNGSMODELLÈ
"7).0ROÈÈ&ORSTÈ(OLZÈ n
/TTOÈ(*È È,ANGFRISTIGEÈÚKOLOGISCHEÈ7ALDBAUPLANUNGÈFàRÈDIEÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDES
FORSTENÈ"DÈÈ!USÈDEMÈ7ALDEÈ-ITTÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDESFORSTVERWALTUNGÈÈPP
/TTOÈ(*È È,ANGFRISTIGEÈÚKOLOGISCHEÈ7ALDBAUPLANUNGÈFàRÈDIEÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDES
FORSTENÈ"DÈÈ!USÈDEMÈ7ALDEÈ-ITTÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ,ANDESFORSTVERWALTUNGÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ(È È7ALDWACHSTUMSFORSCHUNGÈ)HREÈ"EDEUTUNGÈFàRÈDIEÈ.UTZUNGÈUNDÈDENÈ3CHUTZÈ
VONÈ7ALDÚKOSYSTEMENÈ"EITRÈ&ORSTWIRTSCHÈ,ANDSCHAFTSÚKOLÈn
2ADEMACHERÈ0È-EESENBURGÈ(È-àLLER
5SINGÈ"È È.ËHRSTOFFKREISLËUFEÈINÈEINEMÈ%ICHENWALD
«KOSYSTEMÈDESÈNORDWESTDEUTSCHENÈ0LEISTOZËNSÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈn
2AUSCHERÈ(-È È%COSYSTEMÈMANAGEMENTÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈFORÈFEDERALÈFORESTSÈINÈTHEÈ5NITEDÈ
3TATESÈAÈREVIEWÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈ n
3CHMIDTÈ -È È 0ROGNOSEMODELLEÈ FàRÈ AUSGEWËHLTEÈ (OLZQUALITËTSMERKMALEÈ WICHTIGERÈ "AU
MARTENÈ $ISSERTATIONÈ &AKULTËTÈ FàRÈ &ORSTWISSENSCHAFTENÈ UNDÈ 7ALDÚKOLOGIEÈ 5NIVERSITËTÈ
'ÚTTINGENÈÈPP
2EFERENCES (,'
4HEÈ5SEÈOFÈ-ULTI
#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ
!NALYSISÈANDÈ-ULTI
/BJECTIVEÈ
/PTIMISATIONÈINÈ&ORESTÈ0LANNING
J_ceFkaaWbW'
!BSTRACTÈ4HISÈCHAPTERÈEXPLAINSÈSEVERALÈMULTI
CRITERIAÈDECISIONÈANALYSISÈMETHODSÈTHATÈCANÈ
BEÈUSEDÈTOÈSYSTEMATISEÈTHEÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈALTERNATIVEÈFORESTÈPLANSÈ4HEÈDISCUSSEDÈMETHODSÈ
INCLUDEÈ3-!24ÈTHEÈ3IMPLEÈ-ULTI
!TTRIBUTEÈ2ATINGÈ4ECHNIQUE È!(0ÈTHEÈ!NALYTICÈ(IERARCHYÈ
0ROCESS ÈOUTRANKINGÈMETHODSÈANDÈVOTINGÈMETHODSÈ4HEÈSECONDÈPARTÈOFÈTHEÈCHAPTERÈSUM
MARISESÈVARIOUSÈMETHODSÈOFÈHEURISTICÈSEARCHÈWHICHÈCANÈBEÈUSEDÈTOÈFINDÈGOODÈCOMBINATIONSÈ
OFÈMANAGEMENTÈALTERNATIVESÈFORÈFORESTÈSTANDSÈ4HEÈFOLLOWINGÈHEURISTICSÈAREAÈAREÈEXPLAINEDÈ
RANDOMÈASCENTÈ(EROÈSIMULATEDÈANNEALINGÈTHRESHOLDÈACCEPTINGÈGREATÈDELUGEÈTABUÈSEARCHÈ
ANDÈGENETICÈALGORITHMS
È
)NTRODUCTION
<eh[ijfbWdd_d]cWoX[Z_l_Z[Z_djeijhWj[]_Y"jWYj_YWbWdZef[hWj_edWbfbWd#
d_d]FkaaWbW(&&($IjhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]W_ciWj\_dZ_d]WZ_h[Yj_ede\\eh[ijhoj^Wj
_iX[ij\ehj^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hiehieY_[jo_dj^[bed]j[hc$E\j[d"edboW\[mWdZ
Yb[WhboZ_\\[h[djijhWj[]oWbj[hdWj_l[iWh[Yedi_Z[h[Z_dijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]$
JWYj_YWb\eh[ijfbWdd_d]jh_[ijeZ[j[hc_d[efj_cWbcWdW][c[dj\eh[l[ho\eh#
[ijijWdZ_dj^[fbWdd_d]Wh[W"W_c_d]Wj\kb\_bb_d]j^ei[cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i
j^Wjm[h[h[]WhZ[ZWi_cfehjWdj_dijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]$J^[h[ikbje\jWYj_YWbfbWd#
d_d]_iWb_ije\cWdW][c[djWYj_edij^Wji^ekbZX[kdZ[hjWa[d_dZ_\\[h[djijWdZi
e\j^[\eh[ij$
Ef[hWj_edWb fbWdd_d] Z[j[hc_d[i j^[ X[ij mWo je _cfb[c[dj j^[ WYj_edi" eh
ef[hWj_edi" fh[iYh_X[Z _d jWYj_YWb fbWdd_d]$ Iec[ WYj_edi Wh[ h[bWj[Z je j_cX[h
^Whl[ij_d]WdZjhWdifehj_d]WdZej^[hijei_bl_YkbjkhWbj[dZ_d]e\j^[ijWdZ$Ef#
[hWj_edWbfbWdd_d]_idejkikWbboYedi_Z[h[ZjeX[bed]jej^[\eh[ijfbWdd_d]Z_i#
Y_fb_d["Xkjje\eh[ijj[Y^debe]o^Whl[ij_d]ef[hWj_ediehi_bl_Ykbjkh[j[dZ_d]
ef[hWj_edi$
JeZWoÉi \eh[ij fbWdd_d] i_jkWj_edi jof_YWbbo YedY[hd i[l[hWb _dj[h[ij ]hekfi
WdZ ijWa[^ebZ[hi$ ?d WZZ_j_ed" W i_d]b[ ijWa[^ebZ[h e\j[d ^Wi i[l[hWb Yed\b_Yj_d]
]eWbi$J^_ia_dZe\i_jkWj_edYWbbi\ehZ[l[bef_d]WdZWZefj_d]ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WZ[Y_#
i_edWdWboi_ijeebi\ehijhWj[]_Y\eh[ijfbWdd_d]$J^[i[c[j^eZi^Wl[X[[dZ[l[b#
'[#cW_b0 j_ce$fkaaWbW6`e[dikk$\_ <WYkbjo e\ <eh[ijho" Kd_l[hi_jo e\ @e[dikk" F$E$ 8en '''"
.&'&'@e[dikk"<_dbWdZ
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
(,* #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
ef[Z_dcWdW][c[djiY_[dY[_dehZ[hje[Wi[WdZioij[cWj_i[j^[YecfWh_iede\
ijhWj[]oWbj[hdWj_l[i$
J^[Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[ie\jWYj_YWbfbWdd_d]Wh[WbbZ_\\[h[djYecX_dWj_edie\
ijWdZcWdW][c[djefj_edi$I_dY[j^[dkcX[he\YecX_dWj_edi_i^k]["dkc[h_YWb
efj_c_iWj_edjeebiWh[e\j[dki[Z_dij[WZe\ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WYecfWh_iedjeebi$
J^_i Y^Wfj[h Xh_[\bo ikccWh_i[i iec[ e\ j^[ c[j^eZi j^Wj Wh[ WlW_bWXb[ \eh
YecfWh_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[\eh[ijfbWdi_dijhWj[]_YWdZjWYj_YWbfbWdd_d]$J^[i[c[j^#
eZim[h[ki[ZWjj^[Kd_l[hi_joe\@e[dikk<_dbWdZ_dj^[;K#ikffehj[Zfhe`[Yj
?cfb[c[dj_d] Jh[[ =hemj^ CeZ[bi Wi <eh[ij CWdW][c[dj Jeebi$ Je i_cfb_\o j^[
Z_iYkii_ed"_j_iWiikc[Zj^WjijhWj[]_YfbWdd_d]^WiedboW\[mZ_ij_dYjboZ_\\[h[dj
Wbj[hdWj_l[i j^Wj cWo X[ YecfWh[Z ki_d] ckbj_#Yh_j[h_W Z[Y_i_ed WdWboi_i c[j^#
eZi$J^[i[Wbj[hdWj_l[iWh[fheZkY[ZX[\eh[^WdZXo\eh[ij[hi"WdZfh[i[dj[Zjej^[
ijWa[^ebZ[hi_dWd_d\ehcWj_l[mWo$
?djWYj_YWbfbWdd_d]"edboj^[Z[Y_i_edifWY[_ifheZkY[ZX[\eh[j^[YecfWh#
_ied ij[f$ J^[ Z[Y_i_ed ifWY[ _i W Yebb[Yj_ed e\ cWdW][c[dj efj_edi \eh ijWdZi$
7bbYecX_dWj_edie\j^[i[efj_ediWh[Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i"WdZjWYj_YWbfbWdd_d]
W_ciWj\_dZ_d]j^[i_d]b[X[ijWbj[hdWj_l[\hecWced]WlWijdkcX[he\YecX_#
dWj_edi$I_dY[_j_i_cfeii_Xb[je[lWbkWj[WbbWbj[hdWj_l[i_dWh[WiedWXb[j_c["dej
[l[dm_j^WYecfkj[h"ief^_ij_YWj[ZYecfWh_iedjeebi"dWc[bodkc[h_YWbefj_c_#
iWj_edc[j^eZi"ckijX[ki[Z$J^[i[c[j^eZiXej^fheZkY[Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i
XoYecX_d_d]ijWdZcWdW][c[djefj_edi_dZ_\\[h[djmWoiWdZ[lWbkWj[j^[]eeZ#
d[iie\[WY^d[mWbj[hdWj_l[$Edboj^[i[b[Yj[ZYecX_dWj_ed"m^_Y^_ij^[iebkj_ed
e\j^[efj_c_iWj_edfheXb[c"_iZ_ifbWo[Zjej^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h\eh\khj^[h[lWb#
kWj_ed$?\j^[iebkj_ed_idejWYY[fjWXb[j^[fheXb[c\ehckbWj_ed_iY^Wd][ZYed#
ijhW_djiWZZ[Z"eX`[Yj_l[m[_]^jiWbj[h[ZWdZj^[fheXb[c_ih[iebl[Z$7ieffei[Z
jeckbj_#Yh_j[h_WZ[Y_i_edWdWboi_ijeebi"WbbeX`[Yj_l[ickijX[dkc[h_YWb$
È
-ULTI
#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ!NALYSISÈINÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING
È
4HEÈ"ASICÈ3ETUP
Ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WZ[Y_i_edWdWboi_iWiikc[ij^Wji[l[hWbeX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[iW\\[Yj
j^[]eeZd[iiWdZhWda_d]e\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i<_]$')$'$J^[i[lWh_WXb[icWo
X[j[hc[ZZ[Y_i_edYh_j[h_WehWjjh_Xkj[i"WdZj^[ocWoX[Z_l_Z[Z_djeikX#Yh_#
j[h_W_dZ_YWjehiWdZikX#ikX#Yh_j[h_Wl[h_\_[hie\_dZ_YWjehi$7Z[Y_i_edWbj[h#
dWj_l[fheZkY[ifWhj_WblWbk[ikX#fh_eh_jo"ikX#kj_b_joj^hek]^Z_\\[h[djYh_j[h_W$
J^[hWda_d]e\WdWbj[hdWj_l[_iXWi[Zed_jijejWbfh_eh_jo"ehjejWbkj_b_jo"m^_Y^_i
j^[ikce\WbbikX#fh_eh_j_[ie\j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[$8[YWki[Z_\\[h[djYh_j[h_WcWoX[
kd[gkWbbo_cfehjWdj"WikX#fh_eh_jo_ie\j[dckbj_fb_[ZXoj^[m[_]^j"eh_cfeh#
jWdY["e\j^[Yh_j[h_ed"X[\eh[YWbYkbWj_d]j^[jejWbfh_eh_jo$
J^[\ebbem_d]\ehckbWikccWh_i[ij^[fh_dY_fb[j^Wj_iki[ZjehWdaZ[Y_i_ed
Wbj[hdWj_l[i_di[l[hWbckbj_#Yh_j[h_WYecfWh_iedc[j^eZi0
È -ULTI
#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ!NALYSISÈINÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING (,+
&IGÈÈ$ECISIONÈÈ
HIERARCHYÈOFÈMULTI
È
CRITERIAÈDECISIONÈANAL
YSISÈ$ECISIONÈCRITERIAÈ
AREÈEVALUATEDÈFORÈTHEIRÈ
IMPORTANCEÈWEIGHTÈ
PRIORITY ÈANDÈDECISIONÈ
ALTERNATIVESÈAREÈEVAL
UATEDÈWITHÈRESPECTÈTOÈ
EVERYÈCRITERIONÈFORÈTHEIRÈ
PERFORMANCEÈSUB
È
UTILITYÈPRIORITY
?
3
K`3 m_k_`
_3'
m^[h[K`_ij^[jejWbfh_eh_jokj_b_joe\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[`"?_ij^[dkcX[h
e\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W"m__ij^[m[_]^je\Yh_j[h_ed_"WdZk_`_ij^[fh_eh_joe\Wbj[hdW#
j_l[`m_j^h[if[YjjeYh_j[h_ed_$J^_iXWi_Yi[jkfYWdX[ceZ_\_[Z_di[l[hWbmWoi$
M^[dj^[Yh_j[h_WWh[Z_l_Z[Z_djeikX#Yh_j[h_W"j^[\ehckbWcWoX[mh_jj[dWi
?A_
3 3
K`3 m_ la_ka_`
_3'a
m^[h[A__ij^[dkcX[he\ikX#Yh_j[h_We\Yh_j[h_ed_WdZla_j[bbi^emckY^
ikX#Yh_j[h_edaYedjh_Xkj[ijeYh_j[h_ed_$J^[m[_]^jla_cWoX[j[hc[Zj^[beYWb
fh_eh_joe\ikX#Yh_j[h_eda"m^[h[WifheZkYjm_la__i_ji]beXWbfh_eh_jo$
?\ j^[h[ Wh[ i[l[hWb Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hi m_j^ j^[_h emd fh[\[h[dY[i" j^[ el[hWbb
hWda_d]YWdX[Yecfkj[Z\hec
:?Z
3 3
K`3 lZ m_Zk_Z`
Z3' _
m^[h[:_ij^[dkcX[he\Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hi"lZj^[m[_]^je\Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hZ"
?Zj^[dkcX[he\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_We\Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hZ"m_Zj^[_cfehjWdY[e\Yh_#
j[h_ed_e\Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hZ"WdZk_Z`j^[fh_eh_joe\Wbj[hdWj_l[`m_j^h[if[Yjje
Yh_j[h_ed_m^[d[lWbkWj[ZXoZ[Y_i_ed#cWa[hZ$
?\_j_iWiikc[Zj^Wjj^[h[_ikdY[hjW_djoehh_iah[bWj[Z"\eh_dijWdY["je\kjkh[
j_cX[hfh_Y[ieh]hemj^hWj[e\jh[[i"j^[\ehckbWcWoX[Yedl[hj[Z_dje
I?
3 3
K`3 fi m_k_i`
i3' _
(,, #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
m^[h[I_ij^[dkcX[he\Z_\\[h[djijWj[ie\dWjkh["fi_ij^[fheXWX_b_joe\ijWj[
i"WdZk_i`_ij^[fh_eh_joe\Z[Y_i_ed#Wbj[hdWj_l[`m_j^h[if[YjjeYh_j[h_ed_m^[d
j^[\kjkh[ijWj[e\dWjkh[_ii$Dej[j^Wj_dj^_i\ehckbWj^[m[_]^jie\Z[Y_i_edYh_#
j[h_WZedejZ[f[dZedj^[ijWj[e\dWjkh[Xkjj^[ekjYec[e\WZ[Y_i_edWbj[hdW#
j_l[Z[f[dZied_j$
Ceijckbj_#Yh_j[h_W[lWbkWj_edc[j^eZi^Wl[\ekhXWi_Yij[fi0
'$ If[Y_\oZ[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W$
($ If[Y_\oZ[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[iWdZfhel_Z[_d\ehcWj_edWXekj[l[hoWbj[hdWj_l[
fh[Z_Yjj^[Yedi[gk[dY[ie\Wbj[hdWj_l[i$
)$ :[h_l[j^[m[_]^jie\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_WWdZ"_\h[gk_h[Z"j^[m[_]^jie\Z[Y_#
i_ed#cWa[hi"ijWj[ie\dWjkh["ikX#Yh_j[h_W"[jY$$
*$ 9edZkYji_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[[lWbkWj_ed[l[hoZ[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[_i[lWbkWj[Z_d
j[hcie\[l[hoYh_j[h_ed$
J^[h[ Wh[ i[l[hWb c[j^eZi \eh Xej^ Yh_j[h_W m[_]^j_d] WdZ i_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[
[lWbkWj_ed$Iec[j_c[ij^[iWc[c[j^eZ_iki[Z_dXej^ij[fi"Xkj_dceijYWi[i
j^[j[Y^d_gk[Z_\\[hi$8[YWki[ijh_Yjboif[Wa_d]WbbYecX_dWj_edie\c[j^eZiki[Z
_dij[fi)WdZ*Wh[Z_\\[h[djj[Y^d_gk[i"j^[fej[dj_WbdkcX[he\ckbj_#Wjjh_Xkj[
YecfWh_iedj[Y^d_gk[i_i^_]^$J^[\ebbem_d]Xh_[\boZ[iYh_X[iiec[c[j^eZieh
YbWii[ie\c[j^eZij^Wj^Wl[X[[dZ_iYkii[Z_dj^[b_j[hWjkh[$Ceh[Z[jW_b[Zh[#
l_[mim_j^\eh[ijhoWffb_YWj_ediYWdX[\ekdZ_dBWkaaWd[d[jWb$(&&'WdZAWd#
]WiWdZAWd]Wi(&&($7bbh[l_[m[Zc[j^eZi^Wl[dX[[dj[ij[Z_d\eh[ijho$Iec[
Yeccedj[Y^d_gk[iikY^Wij^ei[XWi[ZedZ[Y_i_edjWXb[i[$]$H[dZ[hWdZIjW_h
'//( WdZ Z[Y_i_ed jh[[i <h[dY^ '/./ Wh[ dej Z_iYkii[Z X[YWki[ j^[o Wh[ dej
fWhj_YkbWhbo ckbj_#Yh_j[h_W c[j^eZi$ 7bie iec[ ckbj_#Yh_j[h_W c[j^eZi ikY^ Wi
;l[d ImWfi >WccedZ [j Wb$ '//. WdZ IjeY^Wij_Y Ckbj_#7jjh_Xkj[7YY[fjWX_b_#
jo7dWboi_iBW^Z[bcW[jWb$'//.Wh[ia_ff[ZX[YWki[j^[o^Wl[edbohWh[boX[[d
ki[Z_d\eh[ijho$
È
3IMPLEÈ-ULTI
!TTRIBUTEÈ2ATINGÈ4ECHNIQUE
J^[ I_cfb[ Ckbj_#7jjh_Xkj[ HWj_d] J[Y^d_gk[ IC7HJ _i W YbWii e\ hWj_d]
j[Y^d_gk[i" j^[ Yecced \[Wjkh[ e\ m^_Y^ _i j^Wj hWj_d] _i ki[Z _d Xej^ Yh_j[h_W
m[_]^j_d]WdZi_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[[lWbkWj_ede\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i;ZmWhZi'/-'$
HWj_d]c[Wdij^WjYh_j[h_WWh[]_l[dm[_]^jij^WjZ[iYh_X[j^[_h_cfehjWdY[WdZ
Wbj[hdWj_l[iWh[]_l[dfe_djij^WjZ[iYh_X[j^[_hgkWb_jo_dj[hcie\WY[hjW_dYh_#
j[h_ed$
I[l[hWbc[j^eZiWh[WlW_bWXb[jeZ[h_l[j^[m[_]^jie\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W$?ded[
c[j^eZj^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h\_hijhWdaij^[Yh_j[h_WWdZj^[d]_l[iWm[_]^j\ehj^[
b[Wij_cfehjWdjYh_j[h_ed$>[ehi^[j^[d]_l[im[_]^jijej^[ej^[hYh_j[h_W_dh[#
bWj_edjej^[b[Wij_cfehjWdjed[$J^[m[_]^jiWh[\_dWbboiYWb[Ziej^Wjj^[_hikc
[gkWbied[$7dej^[hfeii_X_b_jo_ije\_hijZ_ijh_Xkj['&&fe_djijej^[Yh_j[h_WWdZ
j^[diYWb[j^[fe_djiiej^Wjj^[_hikc[gkWbied[$J^[j^_hZc[j^eZ_ij^[i_c#
fb[iji_dY[_jedboh[gk_h[ij^Wjj^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hhWdaij^[Yh_j[h_WWYYehZ_d]je
È -ULTI
#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ!NALYSISÈINÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING (,-
_cfehjWdY["W\j[hm^_Y^W\ehckbWed[e\i[l[hWb_iki[ZjeYWbYkbWj[j^[m[_]^ji
\hecj^[hWdai$
J^[\ekhj^c[j^eZ"j^[ie#YWbb[Zim_d]m[_]^j_d]"_ij^[ceijYecfb_YWj[ZXkj
_jcWoX[j^[ceijh[Wb_ij_YWi_jjWa[i_djeWYYekdjj^[hWd][e\lWh_Wj_ede\j^[Z[#
Y_i_edYh_j[h_W_dj^[Ykhh[djZ[Y_i_edfheXb[c$J^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h_cW]_d[ijme
^ofej^[j_YWbWbj[hdWj_l[i0_dj^[\_hijWbj[hdWj_l[[l[hoYh_j[h_ed_i]_l[dj^[X[ij
feii_Xb[lWbk[WdZ_dj^[i[YedZWbj[hdWj_l[j^[mehijfeii_Xb[lWbk["XWi[Zedj^[
hWd][ie\j^[Yh_j[h_W_dj^[fheXb[cWj^WdZ$J^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hj^[dj^_daie\
j^[feeh[h^ofej^[j_YWbWbj[hdWj_l[WdZZ[Y_Z[im^_Y^ed[e\j^[Yh_j[h_W"m^[d
Y^Wd][Z\hecj^[mehijfeii_Xb[b[l[bjej^[X[ijb[l[b"_cfhel[ij^[Wbj[hdWj_l[
ceij$J^_iYh_j[h_ed_i]_l[d'&&fe_dji$J^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hj^[di[b[YjiWdej^[h
Yh_j[h_ed_dm^_Y^j^[Y^Wd][_ii[YedZ#ceijZ[i_hWXb["WdZ]_l[ife_djib[iij^Wd
'&&\ehj^[Z[i_hWX_b_jo$EdY[WbbYh_j[h_WWh[[lWbkWj[Z_dj^_imWo"j^[fe_djiWh[
iYWb[Ziej^Wjj^[_hikc_ied[$
J^[h[Wh[Wbiei[l[hWbmWoijeYedZkYji_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[[lWbkWj_ede\Z[Y_i_ed
Wbj[hdWj_l[i$Ed[mWo_ije]_l[&fe_djijej^[mehijWbj[hdWj_l[WdZ'&&fe_djije
j^[X[ijed[$J^[ej^[hWbj[hdWj_l[iWh[j^[d]_l[dfe_djiX[jm[[d&WdZ'&&"[_#
j^[hikX`[Yj_l[boeh_dh[bWj_edjeWdkc[h_YWblWh_WXb[j^WjZ[iYh_X[ij^[WjjW_d#
c[dje\j^[Yh_j[h_ed$7dej^[hc[j^eZ[lWbkWj[iWbj[hdWj_l[iki_d]Wl[hXWbiYWb["
m^_Y^_iYedl[hj[Z_djeWdkc[h_YWbiYWb[ki_d]Wfh[Z[\_d[ZYedl[hi_edjWXb[$J^[
j^_hZ feii_X_b_jo _i je ki[ W cWj^[cWj_YWb \kdYj_ed ikX#kj_b_jo \kdYj_ed m^_Y^
jhWdi\ehcij^[lWbk[e\j^[Yh_j[h_edlWh_WXb[ikY^Wid[j_dYec[_djeWfh_eh_#
jolWbk[$
7\j[hZ[h_l_d]j^[m[_]^jie\j^[Yh_j[h_WWdZYecfb[j_d]j^[[lWbkWj_ede\Wbb
Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[im_j^h[if[Yjje[l[hoYh_j[h_ed"j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[iWh[ehZ[h[Z
m_j^j^[\ebbem_d]\ehckbW0
?
3
K`3 m_k_`
_3'
m^[h[K`_ij^[jejWbfh_eh_joe\Wbj[hdWj_l[`"m__ij^[m[_]^je\Yh_j[h_ed_WdZ
k_`_ij^[ikX#fh_eh_joe\Wbj[hdWj_l[`m_j^h[if[YjjeYh_j[h_ed_$
È
4HEÈ!NALYTICÈ(IERARCHYÈ0ROCESS
J^[ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Y \[Wjkh[ e\ j^[ 7dWboj_Y >_[hWhY^o FheY[ii 7>F _i j^Wj
fW_h[ZYecfWh_iediWh[ki[ZjeZ[h_l[Yh_j[h_edm[_]^jiWdZj^[ikX#fh_eh_j_[ie\
Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[iIWWjo'/.&$;l[hoYh_j[h_ed_iYecfWh[Zm_j^[l[hoej^[h
Yh_j[h_ed_dj[hcie\j^[_cfehjWdY[e\j^[Yh_j[h_Wjej^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h$KikWb#
bo"Wl[hXWbiYWb[_iki[Z$J^[l[hXWb[nfh[ii_ediWh[Yedl[hj[Z_djedkc[h_YWbhW#
j_eiki_d]ed[e\j^[iYWb[ii^emd_dJWXb[')$'IWWjo'/.&1CWWdZP^[d]'//'1
BeejicW'//)1IWbeWdZ>cb_d[d'//-$J^[dkc[h_YWbhWj_eiWh[Yebb[Yj[Z_d#
jeWcWjh_n??cWjh_n_\j^[h[Wh[?Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W"o_[bZ_d]j^[kff[hh_]^j
Yehd[h e\ j^[ cWjh_n$ J^[ bem[h b[\j Yehd[h _i eXjW_d[Z Xo jWa_d] h[Y_fheYWbi e\
j^[ kff[h Yehd[h [b[c[dji$ J^[ Z_W]edWb [b[c[dji Wh[ Wiikc[Z je X[ [gkWb je
(,. #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
4ABLEÈÈ!LTERNATIVEÈSCALESÈTOÈCONVERTÈVERBALÈCOMPARISONSÈOFÈDECISIONÈCRITERIAÈINTOÈNUMERI
CALÈRATIOSÈINÈTHEÈPAIRWISEÈCOMPARISONSÈOFÈ!(0È7HENÈALTERNATIVESÈAREÈCOMPAREDÈTHEÈVERBALÈSCALEÈ
ISÈ@EQUALLYÈGOODÈ@BETTERÈ@MUCHÈBETTERÈETCÈ)TÈISÈPOSSIBLEÈTOÈGIVEÈINTERMEDIATEÈVALUESÈBETWEENÈ
TWOÈVERBALÈEXPRESSIONSÈEGÈBETWEENÈ@MOREÈIMPORTANTÈANDÈ@MUCHÈMOREÈIMPORTANT
6ERBALÈSCALEÈ .UMERICALÈSCALE
È 3AATYÈ È -AÈANDÈÈ 3ALOÈANDÈÈ ,OOTSMAÈ
È È :HENGÈ È (ËMËLËINENÈ
6ERYÈMUCHÈMOREÈ
IMPORTANTÈ È È È
!BSOLUTELYÈMOREÈ
IMPORTANTÈ È È È
ed[$J^[Yh_j[h_Wm[_]^jiYWdj^[dX[YWbYkbWj[Z\hecj^_icWjh_nXoiebl_d]j^[
[gkWj_ed
7m3Lm
m^[h[7_ij^[cWjh_ne\hWj_ei"L_ij^[cWn_cWb[_][dlWbk[e\j^[cWjh_nWdZ
m_ij^[[_][dl[YjehYehh[ifedZ_d]jeL$J^[[b[c[djie\mWh[j^[m[_]^jie\Z[#
Y_i_edYh_j[h_W$
7\j[hZ[h_l_d]j^[Yh_j[h_Wm[_]^ji"7>FfheY[[Zijei_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[[lWbkW#
j_ed$J^_i_iZed[XojWa_d]ed[Yh_j[h_edWjWj_c["WdZYecfWh_d][l[hofW_he\
Wbj[hdWj_l[im_j^h[if[Yjjej^[Yh_j[h_ed"ki_d]Wi_c_bWhl[hXWbiYWb[WimWiki[Z
m^[dYh_j[h_Wm[h[YecfWh[Z$Demj^[gk[ij_ed_i^em]eeZfh[\[hWXb[Wbj[hdW#
j_l[7_iYecfWh[ZjeWbj[hdWj_l[8_dj[hcie\Yh_j[h_edN$J^[YecfWh_iedie\Wb#
j[hdWj_l[im_j^h[if[YjjeWi_d]b[Yh_j[h_edWh[Yebb[Yj[Z_djeWcWjh_n"\hecm^_Y^
j^[ikX#fh_eh_j_[iWh[Yecfkj[Z_dj^[iWc[mWoWiYh_j[h_edm[_]^ji0
8_k_3L_k_
È -ULTI
#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ!NALYSISÈINÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING (,/
m^[h[8__ij^[cWjh_ne\hWj_ei\ehYh_j[h_ed_WdZk__ij^[l[Yjehe\ikX#fh_#
eh_j_[i$7\j[hYecfb[j_d]j^[[lWbkWj_edi\ehWbbYh_j[h_W"j^[jejWbfh_eh_j_[ie\Wb#
j[hdWj_l[iWh[eXjW_d[Z\hec
?
3
K`3 m_k_`
_3'
J^[jejWbfh_eh_j_[iehjejWbkj_b_j_[iWh[edj^[hWj_eiYWb["m^_Y^c[Wdi"\eh
_dijWdY["j^Wjfh_eh_j_[i&$*WdZ&$(\ehWbj[hdWj_l[i7WdZ8"h[if[Yj_l[bo"YWdX[
_dj[hfh[j[Ziej^Wj7_ijm_Y[Wi]eeZWi8$
È
/UTRANKINGÈ-ETHODS
J^[Z_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[dekjhWda_d]c[j^eZiWdZIC7HJWdZ7>F_ij^Wjekj#
hWda_d]Ze[idejki[i_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[[lWbkWj_ed$9h_j[h_edm[_]^jiWh[h[gk_h[Z"
WdZ_\j^[Yh_j[h_WWh[dejh[]WhZ[ZWi[gkWbbo_cfehjWdj"j^[m[_]^jicWoX[Z[#
h_l[Z Xo ed[ e\ j^[ c[j^eZi Z_iYkii[Z WXel[$ I_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[ [lWbkWj_ed _i h[#
fbWY[Z Xo ]_l_d] jme eh j^h[[ j^h[i^ebZi f[h Yh_j[h_ed <_]$')$($ ?d j^[ FHE#
C;J>;; c[j^eZ 8hWdi WdZ L_dYa[ '/.+ j^[ _dZ_\\[h[dY[ j^h[i^ebZ H _d
<_]$')$( ]_l[i j^[ Z_\\[h[dY[ X[jm[[d Wbj[hdWj_l[i _d W Yh_j[h_ed lWh_WXb[" X[bem
m^_Y^j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[iWh[h[]WhZ[ZWi[gkWbbo]eeZj^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h_i_dZ_\#
\[h[dj X[jm[[d Wbj[hdWj_l[i j^Wj Z_\\[h b[ii j^Wd j^[ _dZ_\\[h[dY[ j^h[i^ebZ$ J^[
fh[\[h[dY[j^h[i^ebZF_d<_]$')$(i^emi^emckY^j^[Z_\\[h[dY[i^ekbZX[je
cWa[WdWbj[hdWj_l[Yb[Whboehijhed]bofh[\[hWXb[jej^[ej^[h$8[jm[[dj^[_dZ_\#
\[h[dY[WdZfh[\[h[dY[j^h[i^ebZi_\j^[oWh[Z_\\[h[dj"WdWbj[hdWj_l[_im[Wabo
fh[\[hWXb[jej^[ej^[h$
&IGÈÈ!NÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈAÈPREFERENCEÈFUNCTIONÈUSEDÈINÈOUTRANKINGÈTOÈCOMPAREÈTWOÈALTERNATIVESÈ
WITHÈRESPECTÈTOÈAÈDECISIONÈCRITERIONÈ4HEÈX
AXISÈGIVESÈTHEÈDIFFERENCEÈBETWEENÈTWOÈALTERNATIVESÈINÈ
THEÈCRITERIONÈVARIABLEÈANDÈTHEÈY
AXISÈTELLSÈHOWÈMUCHÈTHEÈALTERNATIVEÈWITHÈAÈHIGHERÈVALUEÈISÈPRE
FERREDÈTOÈTHEÈOTHERÈALTERNATIVEÈ)NÈTHISÈEXAMPLEÈAÈHIGHÈVALUEÈOFÈTHEÈCRITERIONÈVARIABLEÈISÈPREFERA
BLEÈTHEÈCRITERIONÈVARIABLEÈISÈ@MAXIMISED È0OINTÈ2ÈONÈTHEÈX
AXISÈISÈTHEÈINDIFFERENCEÈTHRESHOLDÈANDÈ
POINTÈ0ÈISÈTHEÈPREFERENCEÈTHRESHOLD
(-& #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
EdY[ j^[ _dZ_\\[h[dY[ WdZ fh[\[h[dY[ j^h[i^ebZi ^Wl[ X[[d Z[j[hc_d[Z \eh
[l[ho Yh_j[h_ed" ed[ dkc[h_YWb fh[\[h[dY[ lWbk[ f[h Yh_j[h_ed _i YWbYkbWj[Z \eh
[l[hofW_he\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i$J^[lWbk[_ip[he_\j^[Z_\\[h[dY[_ib[iij^Wd
j^[_dZ_\\[h[dY[j^h[i^ebZWdZed[_\Wbj[hdWj_l[iZ_\\[hceh[j^Wdj^[fh[\[h[dY[
j^h[i^ebZ$:_\\[h[dY[iX[jm[[dj^[jmej^h[i^ebZiWh[]_l[dWfh[\[h[dY[lWbk[X[#
jm[[dp[heWdZed[<_]$')$($J^[fh[\[h[dY[lWbk[iWh[YecX_d[Z_djeekjhWda#
_d]Z[]h[["m^_Y^_iWckbj_#Yh_j[h_Wfh[\[h[dY[_dZ[n\ehWfW_he\Z[Y_i_edWbj[h#
dWj_l[i$J^[ekjhWda_d]Z[]h[[e\Wbj[hdWj_l[i7WdZ8QE7"8S_iWi\ebbemi0
?
3
E7"83 m_f_7"8
_3'
m^[h[m__ij^[m[_]^je\Yh_j[h_ed_"?_ij^[dkcX[he\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W"WdZ
f__ij^[fh[\[h[dY[\kdYj_ed\ehYh_j[h_ed_<_]$')$($7i_cfb_\_[ZmWoje_dj[h#
fh[jekjhWda_d]Z[]h[[_ijeiWoj^Wj_jj[bbi_d^emcWdoYh_j[h_W7_iX[jj[hj^Wd
8m^[dYh_j[h_edm[_]^jiWh[jWa[d_djeWYYekdj$
J^[ekjhWda_d]Z[]h[[ih[bWj[ZjeWdWbj[hdWj_l[YWdX[YecX_d[Z_djefei_j_l[
WdZd[]Wj_l[\bemiehb[Wl_d]WdZ[dj[h_d]\bemi$<ehWbj[hdWj_l[7j^[oWh[0
3
<!73 E7"8
7¢8
3
<Ä73 E8"7
7¢8
J^[ Z_\\[h[dY[ e\ j^[ fei_j_l[ WdZ d[]Wj_l[ \bem e\ Wd Wbj[hdWj_l[ _i _ji d[j
\bem$J^[Wbj[hdWj_l[icWoX[ehZ[h[Zedj^[XWi_ie\fei_j_l[\bem"d[]Wj_l[\bem"
ehd[j\bem$
7dej^[hl[hi_ede\ekjhWda_d]c[j^eZi_i;B;9JH;Heo'//'$7dekjhWda#
_d]Z[]h[[_iYWbYkbWj[Z_dj^[iWc[mWoWi_dFHEC;J>;;"Xkj_j_idemYWbb[Z
j^[YedYehZWdY[_dZ[n$J^[dWj^_hZ"ie#YWbb[Zl[jej^h[i^ebZ_i]_l[d\eh[l[ho
Yh_j[h_ed$?j_iikY^WZ_\\[h[dY[_dj^[Yh_j[h_edlWh_WXb[m^_Y^cWa[ied[e\j^[
Wbj[hdWj_l[iieckY^_d\[h_ehjej^[ej^[hj^Wjj^[Z[\_Y_jYWddejX[Yecf[diWj[Z
\ehm_j^W]eeZf[h\ehcWdY[_dj^[ej^[hYh_j[h_W$J^[YecfWh_iedie\jmeWbj[h#
dWj_l[im_j^h[if[Yjjej^[l[jej^h[i^ebZie\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_WWh[YecX_d[Z_djeW
Z_iYehZWdY[_dZ[n$J^_i_iki[ZjeceZ_\oj^[YedYehZWdY[_dZ[n"h[ikbj_d]_dj^[
\_dWbekjhWda_d]Z[]h[[e\WfW_he\Wbj[hdWj_l[i$?\ded[e\j^[l[jej^h[i^ebZi_i
[nY[[Z[Z"j^[YedYehZWdY[_dZ[n_i[gkWbjej^[ekjhWda_d]Z[]h[[$
?d;B;9JH;"j^[Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[iYWdX[ehZ[h[ZXWi[Zedj^[_hekjhWda#
_d]Z[]h[[i_di[l[hWbmWoi$?\j^[h[Wh[dWbj[hdWj_l[i"[WY^Wbj[hdWj_l[^Wid#'ekj#
hWda_d]Z[]h[[i$J^[Èc_dÉfheY[Zkh[ehÈcWn_c_dÉWiikc[ij^Wjj^[Wbj[hdWj_l[
m_j^j^[^_]^[ijc_d_ckcekjhWda_d]Z[]h[[_ij^[X[ij$
È -ULTI
#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ!NALYSISÈINÈ3TRATEGICÈ0LANNING (-'
È
6OTINGÈ-ETHODS
Lej_d] c[j^eZi Wh[ [if[Y_Wbbo ik_jWXb[ _\ j^[h[ Wh[ i[l[hWb Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[hi$
Ed[lej_d]c[j^eZ_ij^Wje\WffhelWblej_d]$;l[hoZ[Y_i_ed#cWa[h]_l[iWlej[
jeWbbWbj[hdWj_l[ij^WjWh[WYY[fjWXb[je^_c%^[h$J^_ic[Wdij^WjWZ[Y_i_ed#cWa#
[hYWd]_l[ed[ehi[l[hWblej[i"ehdelej[iWjWbb$J^[Wbj[hdWj_l[m_j^j^[^_]^#
[ijjejWbdkcX[he\lej[im_di$
7dWffb_YWj_ede\WffhelWblej_d]"ik_jWXb[jeckbj_#Yh_j[h_Wi_jkWj_edi"_ickb#
j_#Yh_j[h_WWffhelWb$?dj^_ic[j^eZj^[Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_WWh[\_hijehZ[h[ZWYYehZ#
_d]jej^[_h_cfehjWdY[$?j_ij^[dZ[j[hc_d[Zm^[j^[hWdWbj[hdWj_l[_iX[jj[h!
ehmehi[Äj^Wdj^[Wl[hW][_dj[hcie\WY[hjW_dYh_j[h_ed$J^[h[ikbji\hecWbb
Yh_j[h_WWdZWbj[hdWj_l[iWh[Yebb[Yj[Z_djeWjWXb[jme[nWcfb[iWh[]_l[dX[bem"
\hecm^_Y^j^[el[hWbbhWda_d]e\j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[icWoX[i[[d$
J^[ ZhWmXWYa e\ ckbj_#Yh_j[h_W lej_d] _i j^Wj iec[j_c[i _j _i _cfeii_Xb[ je
hWdaj^[Wbj[hdWj_l[i$?dj^[\ebbem_d][nWcfb[j^[h[ikbj_iYb[Wh'4(4)0
È È nÈ
È nÈ È
È nÈ È n
>em[l[h" _d j^[ \ebbem_d] [nWcfb[ _j YWd X[ iW_Z j^Wj Wbj[hdWj_l[ ' _i mehi[
j^Wd(WdZ)"Xkj_j_i_cfeii_Xb[jeiWom^_Y^ed[e\(WdZ)_ij^[X[ij$7bj[hdW#
j_l[)][jiWffhelWb\hecjmeYh_j[h_WWdZWbj[hdWj_l[(\heced[edbo$>em[l[h"
Wbj[hdWj_l[(_ij^[edboed[j^Wj_iWffhel[Z_dj[hcie\j^[ceij_cfehjWdjYh_#
j[h_ed$
È nÈ È
È È nÈ n
È nÈ È
_d]j^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h]_l[idfe_djijej^[X[ije\dWbj[hdWj_l[i"d#'fe_djije
j^[i[YedZX[ij"WdZieed'fe_djjej^[mehijWbj[hdWj_l[$7\j[hYebb[Yj_d]j^[
lej[i"j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[icWoX[hWda[Z_di[l[hWbmWoi$?dj^[fbkhWb_joc[j^eZj^[
Wbj[hdWj_l[m_j^j^[ceij\_hij#fbWY[lej[im_di$?dj^[c[j^eZe\fbkhWb_jom_j^
[b_c_dWj_ed"j^[Wbj[hdWj_l[j^Wj^Wij^[bem[ijdkcX[he\\_hijfbWY[i_i[b_c_dWj#
[Z"WdZj^[h[ikbjiWh[h[YWbYkbWj[Z\ehj^[h[cW_d_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[i$J^_i_ih[f[Wj#
[Zkdj_bedboed[Wbj[hdWj_l[h[cW_di$?dj^[8ehZWYekdjc[j^eZ"Wbbfe_djij^Wj
WZ[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[Yebb[YjiWh[ikcc[Z"WdZj^[ikciWh[ki[ZjehWdaj^[Wb#
j[hdWj_l[i$
È
3UMMARY
E\j^[YecfWh_iedc[j^eZiZ_iYkii[ZWXel["7>Fh[gk_h[iceijmeha"WdZ
l[ho ckY^ fh[\[h[dY[ _d\ehcWj_ed _i Yebb[Yj[Z \hec j^[ Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h$ J^[
dkcX[he\fW_hm_i[YecfWh_iediX[Yec[i[Wi_bojeebWh]["cWa_d]j^[c[j^eZ
_cfhWYj_YWb$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"j^[c[j^eZ_il[hiWj_b["]_l[ij^[fh_eh_j_[iedW
hWj_eiYWb["WdZ\WY_b_jWj[icWdojof[ie\i[di_j_l_joWdWboi[i$
J^[ IC7HJ _i ckY^ [Wi_[h \eh j^[ Z[Y_i_ed#cWa[h X[YWki[ Z_h[Yj hWj_d] _i
ki[Z _dij[WZ e\ fW_h[Z YecfWh_iedi$ >em[l[h" j^[ WdWboi_i cWo ij_bb X[ j[Z_eki"
[if[Y_Wbbo m^[d j^[h[ Wh[ cWdo Yh_j[h_W WdZ Wbj[hdWj_l[i$ ?d WZZ_j_ed" _j cWo X[
Z_\\_YkbjjehWj[Wbj[hdWj_l[i$EkjhWda_d]c[j^eZiZedejh[gk_h[i_d]b[#Wjjh_Xkj[
[lWbkWj_ede\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i1edboj^[j^h[i^ebZi\eh_dZ_\\[h[dY[WdZfh[\#
[h[dY[d[[ZjeX[]_l[d\ehj^[Yh_j[h_WWdZj^[l[jej^h[i^ebZi_dj^[;B;9JH;
c[j^eZ$;nY[fj\eh[b_Y_j_d]j^[Yh_j[h_edm[_]^jiWdZif[Y_\o_d]j^[j^h[i^ebZi"
Wbbj^[WdWboi[iYWdX[WkjecWj[Z"cWa_d]j^[c[j^eZ[Wiojej^[Z[Y_i_ed#cWa#
[h_\W]eeZYecfkj[h_i[Z_dj[h\WY[_iWlW_bWXb[$
J^[ lej_d] c[j^eZi Wh[ j^[ ceij ik_jWXb[ _d YWi[i j^Wj _dlebl[ cWdo Z[Y_#
i_ed#cWa[hi" ikY^ Wi fWhj_Y_fWjeho fbWdd_d] e\ fkXb_Y \eh[iji$ J^[ _d\ehcWj_ed
h[gk_h[Z\hecj^[fWhj_Y_fWdji_ib_jjb[WdZi_cfb[0m^[j^[hehdejWZ[Y_i_edWb#
j[hdWj_l[_iWYY[fjWXb["ehm^Wj_ij^[fh[\[h[dY[ehZ[he\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i$?d
lej_d]"j^[fWhj_Y_fWdjiZedej[l[dif[Y_\oj^[Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W$7d[nY[fj_ed_i
ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WWffhelWb"_dm^_Y^WdWbj[hdWj_l[_iWffhel[Zehh[`[Yj[Zi[fWhWj[#
bo\eh[l[hoYh_j[h_ed$?\j^[Z[Y_i_ededWffhelWb_iWkjecWj[ZWiikc_d]j^WjWb#
j[hdWj_l[iX[jj[hj^WdWl[hW][Wh[Wffhel[Z"j^[fh[\[h[dY[_d\ehcWj_edYedi_iji
edboe\j^[m[_]^jie\Z[Y_i_edYh_j[h_W$J^[ZhWmXWYae\ckbj_#Yh_j[h_WWffhel#
Wb_ij^Wjj^[h[ikbjcWoX[XbeYa[ZehkdZ[\_d[Z"m^_Y^^_dZ[hiWdkdWcX_]keki
Y^e_Y[e\j^[X[ijZ[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[$
J^[ WXel[ Z_iYkii_ed i^emi j^Wj j^[h[ Wh[ cWdo c[j^eZi WlW_bWXb[ \eh j^[
YecfWh_iede\Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[i$J^[fhef[hj_[ie\j^[c[j^eZilWho]h[Wjbo"
WiZej^[Z[Y_i_edi_jkWj_edi$J^[h[\eh["Wdel[hWbbhWda_d]e\j^[c[j^eZi_i_c#
feii_Xb[$
È -ULTI
/BJECTIVEÈ/PTIMISATIONÈINÈ4ACTICALÈ0LANNING (-)
È
-ULTI
/BJECTIVEÈ/PTIMISATIONÈINÈ4ACTICALÈ0LANNING
È
4HEÈ"ASICÈ3ETUP
7ic[dj_ed[ZWXel["j^[Z[Y_i_edWbj[hdWj_l[ie\jWYj_YWbfbWdd_d]Wh[WbbYec#
X_dWj_edi e\ ijWdZ cWdW][c[dj efj_edi$ I_dY[ j^[ dkcX[h e\ YecX_dWj_edi _i
[dehceki" dkc[h_YWb efj_c_iWj_ed j[Y^d_gk[i Wh[ e\j[d ki[Z _dij[WZ e\ ckbj_#
Yh_j[h_WYecfWh_iedjeebi$Dkc[h_YWbefj_c_iWj_ed^WiX[[dki[Z_d\eh[ijfbWd#
d_d]Wbh[WZo\ehi[l[hWbZ[YWZ[i$>em[l[h"j^[jhWZ_j_edWbc[j^eZiikY^Wib_d[Wh
fhe]hWcc_d]WdZ]eWbfhe]hWcc_d]Wh[debed][hik\\_Y_[dj\ehiebl_d]Ykhh[dj
fbWdd_d]fheXb[ci"m^_Y^Wh[e\j[dckbj_#eX`[Yj_l["ckbj_#fWhjo"ded#b_d[Wh"ded#
WZZ_j_l[WdZifWj_Wb$J^[h[\eh["d[mj[Y^d_gk[i"dWc[bo^[kh_ij_Yi"^Wl[X[[dZ[#
l_i[ZWdZWZefj[Z8eh][i[jWb$(&&($
7jWYj_YWbfbWdd_d]fheXb[c_ijof_YWbboiebl[Z_djmeij[fi0\_hij"Wi_jkWj_ed#
if[Y_\_Y fbWdd_d] ceZ[b _i Z[l[bef[Z" m^_Y^ YecX_d[i j^[ _d\ehcWj_ed WXekj
cWdW][c[dj eX`[Yj_l[i WdZ j^Wj e\ j^[ Yedi[gk[dY[i e\ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdW#
j_l[i$Fh[Z_Yj_ede\j^[Yedi[gk[dY[i_iXWi[Zedj^[ki[e\ceZ[bie\j^[h[][d#
[hWj_ed"]hemj^"WdZikhl_lWbe\jh[[i$I[YedZ"j^[fheXb[c_iiebl[Zki_d]lWh_eki
efj_c_iWj_edc[j^eZi$J^[ekjbeeae\j^[fbWdd_d]ceZ[bZ[f[dZijeiec[Z[#
]h[[edj^[j[Y^d_gk[j^Wj_iki[Zjeiebl[j^[fheXb[c$KikWbboj^[fheXb[c\eh#
ckbWj_edYedi_ijie\WdeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edWdZYedijhW_dji$J^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ed
i^emi^emj^[eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[Z[f[dZiedj^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i"WdZj^[Yed#
ijhW_d_d][gkWj_edii^em^emj^[Yedikcfj_ede\WYh_j_YWbh[iekhY["ehj^[fhe#
ZkYj_ede\Wi[YedZWhoeX`[Yj_l["Z[f[dZiedj^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i$M_j^^[kh_i#
j_Yij^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[iWh[e\j[dX_dWho&"'"_dZ_YWj_d]m^[j^[h'ehdej&
WY[hjW_dcWdW][c[djefj_ede\WY[hjW_dijWdZ_iki[Z$
Ed[mWoje\ehckbWj[Wckbj_#eX`[Yj_l[fbWdd_d]fheXb[c_ijeYecX_d[WbbeX#
`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[i_djeWkj_b_jo\kdYj_ed"m^_Y^c[Wdij^Wjj^[lWh_WXb[j^Wj_i[l[d#
jkWbbocWn_c_i[Z_defj_c_iWj_ed_iWdWXijhWYjYedY[fj"kj_b_jo$J^_i_iYWbb[Zkj_b#
_jo#j^[eh[j_YfheXb[c\ehckbWj_ed$J^[fheXb[ccWoX[\ehckbWj[Z"\eh[nWcfb["
Wi\ebbemiFkaaWbW(&&*0
CWn_c_i[
?
3
K3 m_k_g_
_3'
ikX`[Yjje
g_3G_n_3'"¾"?
Dd
½3nad3'd3'"¾"D
a3'
(-* #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
nad3[&"']
m^[h[K_ij^[jejWbkj_b_jo"?_ij^[dkcX[he\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[i"m__ij^[
_cfehjWdY[m[_]^je\cWdW][c[djeX`[Yj_l[_"k__iWikX#kj_b_jo\kdYj_ed\eheX#
`[Yj_l[_"WdZg__ij^[lWbk[e\eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[_$G__iWdef[hWjehj^WjYWbYkbWj[i
j^[lWbk[e\eX`[Yj_l[_"n_iWl[Yjehe\X_dWhoZ[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[inadm^_Y^_dZ_#
YWj[m^[j^[hijWdZd_ijh[Wj[ZWYYehZ_d]jeiY^[Zkb[a"Dd_ij^[dkcX[he\Wbj[h#
dWj_l[jh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[i_dijWdZd"WdZD_ij^[dkcX[he\ijWdZi$
J^[eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[ig_YWdX[Wdo\kdYj_edie\j^[Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[in$
J^[lWbk[ie\eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[iWh[YWbYkbWj[Zm_j^Èef[hWjehiÉehhekj_d[ifhe#
]hWcc[Z_djej^[YWbYkbWj_edie\jmWh[$J^_ic[Wdij^Wjefj_c_iWj_ed_idejh[#
ijh_Yj[ZjeeX`[Yj_l[ij^WjWh[b_d[WhYecX_dWj_edie\Z[Y_i_edlWh_WXb[i$
7dej^[hWbj[hdWj_l[_ije^Wl[edboed[lWh_WXb[_dj^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edWdZ
j^[ej^[h]eWbi_dj^[YedijhW_d_d][gkWj_edi$?dj^_iYWi["j^[efj_c_iWj_edi[[ai
iebkj_edij^WjcWn_c_i[ehc_d_c_i[j^[eX`[Yj_l[lWh_WXb[m^_b[iWj_i\o_d]j^[
jWh][j b[l[bi e\ YedijhW_d_d] lWh_WXb[i j^[ h_]^j#^WdZ i_Z[i e\ j^[ YedijhW_dji$
Iebkj_edij^WjiWj_i\oWbbYedijhW_djiWh[YWbb[Z\[Wi_Xb[iebkj_edi$
7a_dZe\Yecfhec_i[X[jm[[dj^[jmeWffheWY^[i_ije_dYbkZ[ceh[j^Wd
ed[lWh_WXb[_dj^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edl_WWie#YWbb[Zf[dWbjo\kdYj_ed$LWh_WXb[i
j^WjZedejWff[Wh_dj^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edcWoX[jWa[dYWh[e\XoYedijhW_dji$
J^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edbeeaib_a[Wi\ebbemi0
CWn_c_i[
?
p3g'Ä m_\g_ÄJ_\A
3
_3(
È È È È È È È È È È
È È È È È È È È È
J^[\_hijmWoki[iWl[Yjehe\WicWdo[b[c[djiWij^[h[Wh[jh[Wjc[djiY^[Z#
kb[i jh[Wjc[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i" cWdW][c[dj efj_edi e\ ijWdZi$ J^ei[ iY^[Zkb[i
j^WjWh[_dj^[Ykhh[djiebkj_edWh[_dZ_YWj[ZXo'm^_b[Wbbej^[h[b[c[djiWh[p[#
he[i$J^[h[YWdX[edboed['f[hijWdZ$J^[ej^[hmWo_ije^Wl[WicWdo[b[#
c[dji_dj^[iebkj_edl[YjehWij^[h[Wh[ijWdZi$;WY^[b[c[dj]_l[ij^[dkcX[h
e\WijWdZÉicWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb[j^Wj_iYkhh[djbo_dj^[iebkj_ed$
Efj_c_iWj_edfheY[[Ziiej^Wj"edY[fhel_Z[Zm_j^W\[Wi_Xb[_d_j_Wbiebkj_ed"
j^[ ^[kh_ij_Y Wb]eh_j^c cWa[i Y^Wd][i _d j^[ YecX_dWj_ed e\ iY^[Zkb[i _d j^[
Ykhh[djiebkj_ed"WdZ_d_j_Wj[iWYWbYkbWj_edhekj_d[j^Wj\_hijYWbYkbWj[ij^[lWbk[i
e\lWh_WXb[ij^WjWff[Wh_dj^[eX`[Yj_l[WdZYedijhW_d_d]\kdYj_edi"ki_d]ef[hW#
jehii_c_bWhjeG_n$?jj^[dY^[Yaim^[j^[hj^[d[mYecX_dWj_ed_i\[Wi_Xb[WdZ
[lWbkWj[ij^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[$J^[d[meX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[_ifWii[Z
XWYa je j^[ efj_c_iWj_ed Wb]eh_j^c" j^[ \kdYj_ed_d] e\ m^_Y^ Z[f[dZi ed ^em
]eeZj^[d[mYecX_dWj_edd[miebkj_ed_iYecfWh[Zjej^[fh[l_ekied[$
J^[^[kh_ij_YiceijYeccedboki[Z_d\eh[ijfbWdd_d]fheXb[ci_dYbkZ[i_c#
kbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]"jWXki[WhY^"WdZ][d[j_YWb]eh_j^ciH[[l[i'//)18eh][i[jWb$
(&&($ ?d <_dbWdZ" W c[j^eZ YWbb[Z >[he FkaaWbW WdZ AWd]Wi '//) ^Wi X[[d
ki[Z\ehceh[j^WdWZ[YWZ[$7i_cfb[c[j^eZYWbb[ZhWdZecWiY[djehhWdZec
Z[iY[dj_dc_d_c_iWj_edfheXb[cicWoX[WZZ[Zjej^[b_ije\Yecced^[kh_i#
j_Yi H[[l[i '//)$ >[kh_ij_Yi YWbb[Z ]h[Wj Z[bk][ WdZ j^h[i^ebZ WYY[fj_d]" Xej^
e\m^_Y^h[i[cXb[i_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]"^Wl[WbieX[[dj[ij[Z_d\eh[ijfbWdd_d]
8[jj_d][h[jWb$(&&($
Ceije\j^[Yecced^[kh_ij_YiX[bed]jej^[YWj[]ehoe\beYWb_cfhel[c[dj
c[j^eZi$J^[_h_Z[W_ije_cfhel[j^[iebkj_ed]hWZkWbboXoY^Wd]_d]_jbeYWbbo"
WdZkikWbboedboWb_jjb[WjWj_c[$IkY^WicWbbY^Wd][_iYWbb[ZWcel[$Jof_YWbbo"W
cel[Yedi_ijie\Y^Wd]_d]j^[jh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[e\ed[ijWdZWdZZe_d]dej^_d]
jej^[ej^[hijWdZi$7d[nY[fj_edjej^_ifh_dY_fb[_ij^[][d[j_YWb]eh_j^c"m^_Y^
ki[iceh[ZhWij_Ycel[iH[[l[i'//)$
Iebkj_edij^WjYWdX[eXjW_d[Z\hecj^[Ykhh[djiebkj_edm_j^ed[cel[\ehc
_jid[_]^Xekh^eeZ$?\Wcel[Yedi_ijie\WY^Wd][_d`kijed[ijWdZ" j^[ d[_]^#
Xekh^eeZ cWo X[ h[\[hh[Z je Wi W ed[#ijWdZ d[_]^Xekh^eeZ >[_ded[d WdZ
FkaaWbW (&&*$ ?\ Y^Wd][i Wh[ cWZ[ i_ckbjWd[ekibo _d jme ijWdZi" m[ cWo jWba
WXekjWjme#ijWdZd[_]^Xekh^eeZ$?j_iWbiefeii_Xb[jejWbaWXekjed[#ehjme#ef#
j_cWbehj^h[[#efj_cWb"[jY$^[kh_ij_YiZ[f[dZ_d]ed^emcWdoijWdZim_bb^Wl[
WY^Wd][Zjh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[8[jj_d][h[jWb$'///"(&&($
J^[ \ebbem_d] [nfbW_di Xh_[\bo ^em j^[ ^[kh_ij_Yi c[dj_ed[Z WXel[ cWo X[
ki[Z _d \eh[ij fbWdd_d]$ J^[ Wb]eh_j^ci Wh[ Z[iYh_X[Z _d j^[ mWo j^[o Wh[ ki[Z
m_j^Wed[#ijWdZd[_]^Xekh^eeZ$7Y[hjW_d^[kh_ij_Y_idejW\_n[Zc[j^eZXkj
hWj^[hWfh_dY_fb[eh_Z[W"ehWi[je\_Z[Wi$J^[h[\eh["W^[kh_ij_Yc[j^eZYWdX[
(-, #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
ceZ_\_[ZWdZ_cfb[c[dj[Z_dZ_\\[h[djmWoi$J^[\ebbem_d]Z[iYh_fj_edii^ekbZ
j^[h[\eh[X[i[[dWi[nWcfb[ie\j^[mWoije_cfb[c[djj^[^[kh_ij_Yi$
È
2ANDOMÈ!SCENT
?dhWdZecWiY[dj<_]$')$)7"Wi[je\\[Wi_Xb[_d_j_Wbiebkj_edi_ifheZkY[Z
Xoi[b[Yj_d]WhWdZecjh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[\eh[WY^ijWdZ\hecWbbj^[iY^[Zkb[i
fheZkY[Z\eh_j$J^[X[ijhWdZeciebkj_ed_ij^[_d_j_Wbiebkj_ede\hWdZecWiY[dj"
m^_Y^\_hiji[b[YjiWhWdZecijWdZWdZj^[dWhWdZecjh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[\ehj^[
i[b[Yj[ZijWdZ$?\j^[i[b[Yj[ZiY^[Zkb[_cfhel[ij^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[_j_i
_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[iebkj_ed"ej^[hm_i[_j_idej$J^[i[WhY^fheY[Zkh[_iijeff[Zm^[d
j^[cWn_ckcdkcX[he\jh_Wbi"Wiif[Y_\_[ZXoj^[ki[h"_ih[WY^[Z$?dehZ[hjeZ[#
Yh[Wi[fheXb[ciWh_i_d]\hec][jj_d]jhWff[Z_dbeYWbefj_cW"j^[m^eb[fheY[ii
e\][d[hWj_d]Wd_d_j_Wbiebkj_edWdZWffbo_d]hWdZecWiY[djYWdX[h[f[Wj[Z\eh
Wki[h#if[Y_\_[ZdkcX[he\j_c[i$
&IGÈÈ$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈ
OBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈVALUEÈÈ
UTILITY ÈANDÈOBJECTIVEÈVARI
ABLESÈVOLUMEÈANDÈHARVEST È
DURINGÈAÈRANDOMÈASCENTÈA È
ANDÈ(EROÈB ÈOPTIMISATIONÈ
4HEÈREMAININGÈGROWINGÈSTOCKÈ
VOLUMEÈVOLUME ÈANDÈHAR
VESTEDÈVOLUMEÈHARVEST ÈAREÈ
GIVENÈASÈAÈPROPORTIONÈOFÈTHEÈ
TARGETÈVALUE
È -ULTI
/BJECTIVEÈ/PTIMISATIONÈINÈ4ACTICALÈ0LANNING (--
È
(ERO
?d >[he <_]$')$)8 j^[ _d_j_Wb iebkj_ed _i Wbie j^[ X[ij e\ W ki[h#Z[\_d[Z
dkcX[h e\ hWdZec iebkj_edi$ IjWhj_d] \hec j^[ _d_j_Wb iebkj_ed" j^[ ijWdZi WdZ
j^[_hjh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[iWh[[nfbeh[Zi[gk[dj_Wbbojei[[m^[j^[hWdej^[hjh[Wj#
c[djiY^[Zkb[mekbZ_cfhel[j^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[$?\Wd_dYh[Wi[_iZ[#
j[Yj[Z" j^[ jh[Wjc[dj iY^[Zkb[ j^Wj _cfhel[i j^[ iebkj_ed h[fbWY[i j^[ fh[l_eki
ed[$M^[dWbbj^[jh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[ie\Wbbj^[ijWdZiWh[[nWc_d[Z_dj^_ii[#
gk[dj_Wb mWo" j^[ fheY[ii _i h[f[Wj[Z kdj_b de iY^[Zkb[i j^Wj mekbZ \khj^[h _c#
fhel[j^[iebkj_edYWdX[\ekdZ$M_j^Wjme#ijWdZd[_]^Xekh^eeZj^[\_hijijWdZ
_dm^_Y^WY^Wd][_icWZ[_ii[b[Yj[Z_dj^[iWc[mWoWiZ[iYh_X[ZWXel["_$[$"i[#
gk[dj_Wbbo"Xkjj^[ej^[hijWdZ_ii[b[Yj[Z"\eh_dijWdY["hWdZecbo$
È
3IMULATEDÈ!NNEALING
7i _d j^[ fh[l_eki c[j^eZi" _d i_ckbWj[Z Wdd[Wb_d]" j^[ _d_j_Wb iebkj_ed _i
\ehc[ZXoj^[X[ije\Wi[je\hWdZecYecX_dWj_edie\ijWdZjh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[i$
?jZ_\\[hi\hecj^[fh[l_ekij[Y^d_gk[i_dj^Wj_jcWoWbieWYY[fj_d\[h_ehiebkj_edi
jeWle_Zfh[cWjkh[Yedl[h][dY[jeWbeYWbefj_ckc:emibWdZ'//)$7YWdZ_ZWj[
cel[Yedi_ijie\i[b[Yj_d]\_hijWhWdZecijWdZWdZj^[dWhWdZeciY^[Zkb[j^Wj
mekbZh[fbWY[j^[Ykhh[djiY^[Zkb[e\j^[i[b[Yj[ZijWdZ$Cel[ij^Wj_cfhel[j^[
eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[Wh[WbmWoiWYY[fj[Z$Ded#_cfhel_d]cel[iWh[WYY[fj[Z
m_j^WfheXWX_b_joe\
f3[nfKD[mÄKEbZJ_
Ä'
m^[h[J__ij^[Ykhh[djÈj[cf[hWjkh[ÉWdZK_ij^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[$J^[
Èj[cf[hWjkh[É_iWfWhWc[j[he\j^[c[j^eZWdZ_jZ[\_d[ij^[fheXWX_b_joe\WY#
Y[fj_d]WYWdZ_ZWj[iebkj_edfeeh[hj^Wdj^[Ykhh[djiebkj_ed$:kh_d]j^[efj_#
c_iWj_edfheY[ii"j^[j[cf[hWjkh[_i]hWZkWbboZ[Yh[Wi[Ziej^WjWjj^[[dZe\j^[
i[WhY^j^[b_a[b_^eeZe\WYY[fj_d]_d\[h_ehcel[i_iYbei[jep[he<_]$')$*$J^[
j[cf[hWjkh[YeebiWYYehZ_d]jeW]_l[dYeeb_d]iY^[Zkb["m^_Y^_ikikWbbo_cfb[#
c[dj[Ziej^Wjj^[j[cf[hWjkh[_ickbj_fb_[Zm_j^Wckbj_fb_[he\b[iij^Wded[
&$.Ä&$///jeeXjW_dj^[d[njj[cf[hWjkh[$7Y[hjW_ddkcX[he\YWdZ_ZWj[cel[i
Wh[j[ij[ZWj[WY^j[cf[hWjkh[$J^[dkcX[he\cel[icWoX[j^[iWc[Wj[l[ho
j[cf[hWjkh[" eh _j cWo _dYh[Wi[ m^[d j[cf[hWjkh[ Z[Yh[Wi[i" c[Wd_d] j^Wj j^[
i[WhY^_i_dj[di_\_[ZWij^[fheY[iiYedj_dk[iÈYeebiÉ$J^[i[WhY^ijefi"\eh[nWc#
fb["m^[dWki[h#if[Y_\_[Zijeff_d]j[cf[hWjkh[_ih[WY^[ZehWY[hjW_ddkcX[he\
Yedi[Ykj_l[j[cf[hWjkh[ih[ikbj_ddeY^Wd][_dj^[iebkj_ed<_]$')$+$
(-. #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
&IGÈÈ 0ROBABILITYÈ OFÈ ACCEPTINGÈ INFERIORÈ SOLUTIONSÈ INÈ SIMULATEDÈ ANNEALINGÈ ASÈ AÈ FUNCTIONÈ OFÈ
TEMPERATUREÈ 4 È ANDÈ DIFFERENCEÈ BETWEENÈ THEÈ CURRENTÈ SOLUTIONÈ ANDÈ THEÈ NEWÈ CANDIDATEÈ "OTHÈ
THEÈTEMPERATUREÈANDÈTHEÈDIFFERENCEÈAREÈEXPRESSEDÈASÈAÈPROPORTIONÈOFÈCURRENTÈOBJECTIVEÈFUNC
TIONÈVALUE
&IGÈÈ!NÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈBESTÈANDÈ
CURRENTÈOBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈ
VALUEÈINÈSIMULATEDÈANNEAL
INGÈ3IMULATEDÈANNEALINGÈÈ
ACCEPTSÈINFERIORÈSOLUTIONSÈ
WITHÈAÈDECREASINGÈPROBABILITY
È
4HRESHOLDÈ!CCEPTING
J^h[i^ebZWYY[fj_d]_iWi_cfb_\_[Zl[hi_ede\i_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]$?di_ck#
bWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]"j^[fheXWX_b_joe\WYY[fj_d]Wcel[Z[f[dZied_jigkWb_joiej^Wj
j^[fheXWX_b_jo_i'_\j^[YWdZ_ZWj[iebkj_ed_iWjb[Wij[gkWbbo]eeZWij^[Ykhh[dj
iebkj_ed"WdZ&$),-.-/_\j^[YWdZ_ZWj[_i[gkWbjej^[Ykhh[djeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ed
lWbk[c_dkij[cf[hWjkh[<_]$')$*$J^h[i^ebZWYY[fj_d]i_cfb_\_[ij^[Z[Y_i_ed
e\m^[j^[hehdejjeWYY[fjWYWdZ_ZWj[iebkj_ed0Wbbcel[ij^WjfheZkY[WYWdZ_#
ZWj[[gkWbbo]eeZWiehX[jj[hj^Wdj^[Ykhh[djeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[c_dkiW
j^h[i^ebZWh[WYY[fj[Z<_]$')$,$J^[j^h[i^ebZ^Wij^[iWc[heb[Wij^[j[cf[h#
Wjkh[e\i_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]$J^[j^h[i^ebZ_i]hWZkWbboh[ZkY[ZZkh_d]efj_c_#
iWj_ed"WdZWY[hjW_ddkcX[he\cel[i_ij[ij[Zm_j^[l[hoj^h[i^ebZ$J^[fheY#
[ii_ij[hc_dWj[ZedY[j^[j^h[i^ebZX[Yec[il[hoicWbbehj^[iebkj_eddebed]#
[h_cfhel[i$
È -ULTI
/BJECTIVEÈ/PTIMISATIONÈINÈ4ACTICALÈ0LANNING (-/
&IGÈÈ!NÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈBESTÈANDÈ
CURRENTÈOBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈ
VALUEÈANDÈTHEÈACCEPTANCEÈ
LEVELÈCURRENTÈVALUEÈnÈTHRES
HOLD ÈINÈTHRESHOLDÈACCEPTINGÈ
4HEÈLOWERÈSUB
FIGUREÈISÈAÈÈ
DETAILÈOFÈTHEÈUPPERÈONEÈ
SHOWINGÈTHEÈTHRESHOLDÈMOREÈ
CLEARLYÈTHEÈDIFFERENCEÈÈ
BETWEENÈTHEÈTWOÈLOWESTÈ
LINES È4HEÈTHRESHOLDÈDECREAS
ESÈDURINGÈOPTIMISATIONÈWITHÈ
THEÈRESULTÈTHATÈPROBABILITYÈOFÈ
ACCEPTINGÈINFERIORÈMOVESÈÈ
DECREASES
È
'REATÈ$ELUGE
7dej^[h c[j^eZ i_c_bWh je i_ckbWj[Z Wdd[Wb_d] WdZ j^h[i^ebZ WYY[fj_d] _i
j^Wje\]h[WjZ[bk][<_]$')$-$?jki[iWd_d_j_Wb"ki[h#if[Y_\_[ZeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_ed
lWbk[mWj[hb[l[bWXel[m^_Y^WbbYWdZ_ZWj[cel[iWh[WYY[fj[Z$?\j^[cel[_c#
fhel[ij^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk["j^[WYY[fjWdY[b_c_j_i_dYh[Wi[ZXoWki[h#
Z[\_d[ZWcekdjWhW_d[l[djeYYkhiWdZh_i[ij^[mWj[hb[l[b$=hWZkWbboj^[WY#
Y[fjWdY[ b_c_j WffheWY^[i je j^[ Ykhh[dj WdZ j^[ X[ij eX`[Yj_l[ \kdYj_ed lWbk["
m^_Y^c[Wdij^Wjedbo_cfhel_d]cel[iX[Yec[WYY[fjWXb[Zemd^_bbcel[iWh[
debed][hfeii_Xb[X[YWki[j^[j[hhW_d_ikdZ[hmWj[h$M^[dj^[WYY[fjWdY[b[l#
[bh[WY^[ij^[X[ijeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[h[YehZ[Zie\Wh"j^_imWoe\i[WhY^_d]
\ehX[jj[hiebkj_edi_iijeff[Z$>em[l[h"WY[hjW_ddkcX[he\hWdZeccel[iWh[
kikWbboj[ij[Zjei[[_\j^[iebkj_edYWdX[\khj^[h_cfhel[Z$
È
4ABUÈ3EARCH
JWXki[WhY^_iXWi[Zedi[WhY^_d]j^[d[_]^Xekh_d]iebkj_edifWY[X[\eh[WY#
Y[fj_d]ed[Y^Wd][_dj^[iebkj_ed$J^[fheZkYj_ede\Wi[je\YWdZ_ZWj[cel[i
WdZWYY[fj_d]ed[e\j^[c_ih[f[Wj[Z\ehcWdo_j[hWj_edi<_]$')$.$Jof_YWbe\
jWXki[WhY^Wh[jWXkb_iji$J^[ceijYeccedboki[ZjWXkb_ijic[ceh_i[h[Y[dj
cel[i"WdZYWdX[ki[Zjefhe^_X_jj^[c\ehiec[j_c[$IY^[Zkb[ij^WjfWhj_Y_#
(.& #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
&IGÈÈ!NÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈBESTÈANDÈ
CURRENTÈOBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈÈ
VALUEÈINÈGREATÈDELUGEÈ!LLÈÈ
SOLUTIONSÈBETTERÈTHANÈ7ATERÈÈ
LEVELÈTHEÈLOWESTÈLINE ÈAREÈÈ
ACCEPTEDÈBUTÈTHEÈWATERÈLEVELÈ
RISESÈDURINGÈOPTIMISATION
fWj[_dj^[cel[Wh[a[fj_dj^[jWXkb_ij\ehWY[hjW_ddkcX[he\_j[hWj_edi$J^_i
dkcX[h_ij^[_d_j_WbjWXkj[dkh[e\j^[iY^[Zkb[ij^WjfWhj_Y_fWj[_dj^[cel[$
?dj^[\ebbem_d][nWcfb["W\j[h_dif[Yj_d]i[l[hWbYWdZ_ZWj[cel[i_j_i\ekdZ
j^Wjh[fbWY_d]cWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb[(e\ijWdZ)XocWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb[+_i
j^[ X[ij YWdZ_ZWj[ cel[$ J^_i cel[ _i j^[h[\eh[ _cfb[c[dj[Z m_j^ j^[ Yedi[#
gk[dY[j^WjiY^[Zkb[i(WdZ+e\ijWdZ)Wh[_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[jWXkb_ijm_j^W\kbb
jWXkj[dkh[\eh_dijWdY[")&_j[hWj_edi$
3TANDÈ È È È È È È È
.UMBERÈOFÈ
TREATMENTÈSCHEDULESÈ È È È È È È È
#URRENTÈSOLUTIONÈ È È È È È È È
4HEÈBESTÈCANDIDATEÈ
SOLUTIONÈ È È È È È È È
3CHEDULESÈWITHÈFULLÈ
TABUÈTENUREÈ È È ÈÈ È È È È
7d _j[hWj_ed h[ZkY[i j^[ jWXk j[dkh[ e\ Wbb cel[i eh iY^[Zkb[i Xo ed[$ 7
iY^[Zkb[cWoW]W_dfWhj_Y_fWj[_dWcel[edY[_jijWXkj[dkh[^WiZ[Yh[Wi[Zje
p[he$J^[X[ijded#jWXkcel[e\j^[_dif[Yj[ZYWdZ_ZWj[i_iWYY[fj[Z$?\WbbYWd#
Z_ZWj[iWh[_dj^[jWXkb_ijj^[ed[m_j^j^[i^ehj[ijjWXkj[dkh[_iWYY[fj[Z$?\W
YWdZ_ZWj[cel[mekbZo_[bZWiebkj_edX[jj[hj^Wdj^[X[ijeXjW_d[Zie\Wh"_j_i
WYY[fj[Z[l[d_\j^[cel[_ijWXk$J^[_d_j_WbjWXkj[dkh[e\j^[[dj[h_d]iY^[Zkb[
iY^[Zkb[+e\ijWdZ)_dj^[WXel[[nWcfb[cWoX[Z_\\[h[dj\hecj^[jWXkj[d#
kh[e\j^[b[Wl_d]iY^[Zkb[iY^[Zkb[($?j_ikikWbbofhe\_jWXb[je^Wl[Wi^ehj[h
jWXkj[dkh[\ehj^[[dj[h_d]iY^[Zkb[X[YWki[j^[m^eb[YecfWhjc[dj_dm^_Y^W
Y^Wd][mWicWZ[_ijWXk\ehj^[iWc[j_c[Wij^[[dj[h_d]iY^[Zkb[$JWXki[WhY^
_iijeff[Zm^[dWY[hjW_ddkcX[he\_j[hWj_edi^WiX[[dYecfb[j[ZehWY[hjW_d
dkcX[he\_j[hWj_edi]e[im_j^ekjWd_cfhel[c[dj_dj^[iebkj_ed$
È -ULTI
/BJECTIVEÈ/PTIMISATIONÈINÈ4ACTICALÈ0LANNING (.'
&IGÈÈ!NÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈBESTÈ
OBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈVALUEÈINÈ
TABUÈSEARCHÈUPPERÈLINE È4HEÈ
LOWERÈLINEÈISÈTHEÈCURRENTÈÈ
OBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈVALUE
JWXki[WhY^YWdWbie^Wl[b_ijiej^[hj^Wdj^[ed[Z[iYh_X[ZWXel["m^_Y^_i
Wd[nWcfb[e\h[Y[dYo#XWi[Zb_iji$<h[gk[dYo#XWi[Zb_ijic[ceh_i["\eh_dijWdY["
^em cWdo j_c[i W iY^[Zkb[ ^Wi fWhj_Y_fWj[Z _d W cel[ eh ^em bed] _j ^Wi X[#
bed][Zjej^[iebkj_ed$J^[i[b_ijiYWdX[ki[Z_dlWh_ekimWoije_dj[di_\oehZ_#
l[hi_\oj^[i[WhY^$
È
'ENETICÈ!LGORITHMS
Kdb_a[j^[^[kh_ij_Yefj_c_iWj_edj[Y^d_gk[iZ[iYh_X[ZWXel["j^[i[WhY^fheY#
[iie\][d[j_YWb]eh_j^ci_idejXWi[Zedd[_]^Xekh^eeZi[WhY^$?dij[WZ"][d[j_Y
Wb]eh_j^ciWh[XWi[ZedWd_d_j_WbfefkbWj_ede\iebkj_edWbj[hdWj_l[i"j^[_h[lWb#
kWj_edWdZj^[_hXh[[Z_d]c_n_d]"YecX_dWj_ed$J^[_d_j_Wbiebkj_ediWh[YWbb[Z
fWh[djY^heceiec[i"m^_Y^Wh[fheY[ii[ZXoYheii_d]el[hYecX_d_d]fWhjie\
jmeY^heceiec[iWdZXockjWj_edhWdZecY^Wd][_ded[ehi[l[hWb][d[i"eh
ijWdZi$J^[i[ef[hWj_edih[ikbj_dWd[mY^heceiec[e\\ifh_d]$7jb[Wijed[e\
j^[jmefWh[djie\Wd[mY^heceiec[_ii[b[Yj[Zm_j^j^[fheXWX_b_jofhefehj_ed#
Wbje_jihWda_d]$J^[i[YedZfWh[djcWoX[Y^ei[dhWdZecbom_j^Wd[gkWbfheX#
WX_b_jo\ehWbbY^heceiec[i$?dj^[_dYh[c[djWb][d[j_YWb]eh_j^cj[Y^d_gk["j^[
d[m Y^heceiec[ h[fbWY[i ed[ _d_j_Wb Y^heceiec[$ J^[ h[cel[Z Y^heceiec[
_ii[b[Yj[ZXWi[Zed_jieX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk["j^[fheXWX_b_joe\h[celWbX[_d]
^_]^[ij\ehY^heceiec[ij^Wj^Wl[WbemeX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[$J^[kfZWj[Z
]hekfe\Y^heceiec[i_iYWbb[Z][d[hWj_ed$
J^[\ebbem_d][nWcfb[_bbkijhWj[ij^[Yheii_d]el[hX[jm[[djmefWh[djijme
iebkj_edijefheZkY[Wd[miebkj_ede\\ifh_d]$J^[dkcX[hi_dj^[Y[bbi_dZ_#
YWj[j^[cWdW][c[djiY^[Zkb[j^Wj_i_dj^[iebkj_ed$J^[Yheii_d]#el[hfe_djiWh[
cWha[Zm_j^j^_Yal[hj_YWbb_d[i$
&IRSTÈPARENTÈ È È È È È È È
3ECONDÈPARENTÈ È È È È È È È
/FFSPRINGÈ È È È È È È È
(.( #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
J^[ e\\ifh_d] cWo X[ \khj^[h ceZ_\_[Z Xo ed[ eh i[l[hWb ckjWj_edi" m^_Y^
c[Wdi j^Wj j^[ cWdW][c[dj iY^[Zkb[ e\ j^[ YecfWhjc[dj _i h[fbWY[Z" m_j^ W
icWbbfheXWX_b_jo"XoWdej^[hiY^[Zkb[e\j^[iWc[YecfWhjc[dj0
"EFOREÈMUTATIONÈ È È È È È È È
!FTERÈMUTATIONÈ È È È È È È È
J^[e\\ifh_d]eXjW_d[Z_dj^_imWo_i[lWbkWj[Z\eh_jiÈ\_jd[ii"Ém^_Y^c[Wdi
j^Wjj^[eX`[Yj_l[\kdYj_edlWbk[e\j^[d[miebkj_ed_iYWbYkbWj[Z$J^[i[WhY^_i
ijeff[Zm^[dWki[h#if[Y_\_[ZdkcX[he\][d[hWj_edi_j[hWj_edi^WiX[[dYec#
fb[j[Z<_]$')$/$J^[X[ijc[cX[he\j^[fefkbWj_edWjj^[[dZe\j^[i[WhY^_i
ki[ZWij^[iebkj_ed\ehj^[\eh[ijfbWdd_d]fheXb[c$
È
3UMMARY
>[heWdZhWdZecWiY[djWh[j^[i_cfb[ij^[kh_ij_Yi$J^[_hcW_dZ_\\[h[dY[_i
j^WjhWdZecWiY[dj[lWbkWj[icel[i_dWhWdZecehZ[hm^_b[>[he_dif[Yjij^[c
ioij[cWj_YWbboYel[h_d]WbbYWdZ_ZWj[cel[i$J^[c[j^eZiWh[i_cfb["Xkjik\\[h
\hecj^[ZhWmXWYaj^Wjj^[Wb]eh_j^ccWoX[jhWff[Z_dWbeYWbefj_ckc$7bbj^[
ej^[h^[kh_ij_YiWh[X[jj[h_dj^_ih[if[Yj$J^[oWh[ibem[h"XkjYWd\_dZX[jj[hie#
bkj_edi"[if[Y_Wbbo_dZ_\\_YkbjfheXb[ci$J^[ik_jWX_b_joe\Z_\\[h[djc[j^eZijeW
fWhj_YkbWhfheXb[c_i^WhZjeZ[j[hc_d[X[\eh[^WdZ$>em[l[h"Wbbc[j^eZii[[c
jeX[Wjb[WijiWj_i\WYjehoh[]WhZ_d]ceijfheXb[ci_\j^[fWhWc[j[hie\j^[c[j^#
eZiWh[Wffhefh_Wj[boi[j$J^[h[_iiec[[l_Z[dY[j^WjjWXki[WhY^WdZ][d[j_YWb#
]eh_j^ciWh[[if[Y_Wbboik_jWXb[jeifWj_WbfheXb[ci$I_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]_ih[W#
iedWXbo ]eeZ _d cWdo jof[i e\ fheXb[ci$ J^h[i^ebZ WYY[fj_d] i[[ci je X[ Wi
]eeZWieh[l[dX[jj[hj^Wdi_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]Wbj^ek]^_j_ii_cfb[h$
:_\\[h[dj^[kh_ij_YiYWdX[ceZ_\_[ZWdZj^[oYWdWbieX[YecX_d[Z_di[l[h#
WbmWoi$<eh[nWcfb["_j_ifeii_Xb[jeYecX_d[i_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]WdZ>[heie
j^WjYeeb_d]WdZWYY[fj_d]cel[iWh[Wffb_[Z_dj^[iWc[mWoWi_di_ckbWj[ZWd#
d[Wb_d]"Xkjj^[d[_]^Xekh^eeZ_i_dif[Yj[Z_dj^[iWc[mWoWi_d>[he"_$[$"ioi#
&IGÈÈ!NÈEXAMPLEÈOFÈÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈBESTÈÈ
OBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈVALUEÈINÈ
GENETICÈALGORITHMÈUPPERÈLINE È
4HEÈLOWERÈLINEÈISÈTHEÈMEANÈÈ
OBJECTIVEÈFUNCTIONÈVALUEÈOFÈ
THEÈCURRENTÈPOPULATIONÈÈ
ÈSOLUTIONSÈINÈTHISÈEXAMPLE
2EFERENCES (.)
j[cWj_YWbboAkhjj_bWWdZFkaaWbW(&&)$J^[iebkj_edi\ekdZXohWdZecWiY[dj"
jWXki[WhY^"i_ckbWj[ZWdd[Wb_d]"WdZ][d[j_YWb]eh_j^ciYWdX[ki[ZWiWijWhj#
_d]iebkj_ed\ehW>[hei[WhY^"m_j^j^[h[ikbjj^Wjiec[_cfhel[c[djYWde\j[d
X[cWZ[$Ed[feii_X_b_jo_ijefheZkY[iec[e\j^[_d_j_WbY^heceiec[ie\][d[j#
_YWb]eh_j^cm_j^Wdej^[h^[kh_ij_Y$
7dej^[h efj_ed _i je ki[ jme#ijWdZ _dij[WZ e\ ed[#ijWdZ d[_]^Xekh^eeZ _d
j^[beYWb_cfhel[c[djc[j^eZi_$[$"_dWbbj^[WXel[c[j^eZi[nY[fj][d[j_YWb#
]eh_j^ci$J^_ic[Wdij^WjWcel[Yedi_ijie\Y^Wd]_d]j^[jh[Wjc[djiY^[Zkb[i_#
ckbjWd[ekibo_djmeijWdZi_dij[WZe\ed[ijWdZWiZed[_ded[#ijWdZd[_]^Xekh#
^eeZi[WhY^$?jWff[Whij^Wjj^[ki[e\jme#ijWdZd[_]^Xekh^eeZ_cfhel[ij^[h[#
ikbj[if[Y_Wbbo_difWj_WbfheXb[ci>[_ded[dWdZFkaaWbW(&&*$
2EFERENCES
"ETTINGERÈ0È"OSTONÈ+È3ESSIONSÈ*È È)NTENSIFYINGÈAÈHEURISTICÈFORESTÈHARVESTÈSCHEDULINGÈSEARCHÈ
PROCEDUREÈWITHÈ
OPTÈDECISIONÈCHOICESÈ#ANÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
"ETTINGERÈ0È'RAETZÈ$È"OSTONÈ+È3ESSIONSÈ*È#HUNGÈ7È È%IGHTÈHEURISTICÈPLANNINGÈTECHNIQUESÈ
APPLIEDÈ TOÈ THREEÈ INCREASINGLYÈ DIFFICULTÈ WILDLIFEÈ PLANNINGÈ PROBLEMSÈ 3ILVAÈ &ENNÈ n
"ORGESÈ *'È (OGANSONÈ (-È &ALCÎOÈ !/È È (EURISTICSÈ INÈ MULTI
OBJECTIVEÈ FORESTÈ PLANNINGÈ )NÈ
0UKKALAÈ4ÈED È-ULTI
OBJECTIVEÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈ+LUWERÈ$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
"RANSÈ*0È6INCKEÈ0È È!ÈPREFERENCEÈRANKINGÈORGANIZATIONÈMETHODÈ-ANAGEÈ3CIÈ n
$OWSLANDÈ+!È È3IMULATEDÈANNEALINGÈ)NÈ2EEVESÈ#2ÈED È-ODERNÈHEURISTICÈTECHNIQUESÈFORÈ
COMBINATORIALÈPROBLEMSÈ7ILEYÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈPPÈn
%DWARDSÈ7È È3OCIALÈUTILITIESÈ%NGINEERINGÈECONOMISTÈ3UMMERÈ3YMPÈ3ERÈn
&RENCHÈ3È È2EADINGSÈINÈDECISIONÈANALYSISÈ#HAPMANÈANDÈ(ALLÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
(AMMONDÈ*3È+EENEYÈ2,È2AIFFAÈ(È È%VENÈSWAPSÈAÈRATIONALÈMETHODÈFORÈMAKINGÈTRADE
OFFSÈ
(ARVARDÈ"USINESSÈ2EVÈ-ARCHn!PRILn
(EINONENÈ4È0UKKALAÈ4È È!ÈCOMPARISONÈOFÈONE
ÈANDÈTWO
COMPARTMENTÈNEIGHBOURHOODSÈINÈ
HEURISTICÈSEARCHÈWITHÈSPATIALÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈGOALSÈ3ILVAÈ&ENNÈ n
+ANGASÈ*È+ANGASÈ!È È-ULTIPLEÈCRITERIAÈDECISIONÈSUPPORTÈMETHODSÈINÈFORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈ)NÈ
0UKKALAÈ4ÈED È-ULTI
OBJECTIVEÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈ+LUWERÈ$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
+URTTILAÈ-È0UKKALAÈ4È È#OMBININGÈHOLDING
LEVELÈECONOMICÈGOALSÈWITHÈSPATIALÈLANDSCAPE
LEVELÈGOALSÈINÈTHEÈPLANNINGÈOFÈMULTIPLEÈOWNERSHIPÈFORESTRYÈ,ANDSCAPEÈ%COLÈÈn
,AHDELMAÈ 2È (OKKANENÈ *È 3ALMINENÈ 0È È 3-!!È nÈ STOCHASTICÈ MULTIOBJECTIVEÈ ACCEPTABILITYÈ
ANALYSISÈ%URÈ*È/PERATÈ2ESÈn
,AUKKANENÈ 3È +ANGASÈ !È +ANGASÈ *È È -ONITAVOITTEISENÈ RYHMËPËËTÚSTUENÈ TEKNIIKOITAÈ MET
SËLÚNÈ HOIDONÈ JAÈ KËYTÚNÈ SUUNNITTELUUNÈ 2ESÈ .OTEÈ È &ACULTYÈ OFÈ &ORESTRYÈ 5NIVERSITYÈ OFÈ
*OENSUUÈÈPP
,OOTSMAÈ&!È È3CALEÈSENSITIVITYÈINÈTHEÈMULTIPLICATIVEÈ!(0ÈANDÈ3-!24È*È-ULTIÈ#RITERIAÈ$ECI
SIONÈ!NALÈn
-AÈ$È:HENGÈ8È ÈnÈSCALEÈMETHODÈOFÈ!(0È)NÈ0ROCÈNDÈ)NTÈ3YMPÈ!(0ÈVOLÈ)È5NIVERSITYÈ
OFÈ0ITTSBURGHÈ0ITTSBURGHÈ0ENNSYLVANIAÈPPÈn
0UKKALAÈ4È È)NTRODUCTIONÈTOÈMULTI
OBJECTIVEÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈ)NÈ0UKKALAÈ4ÈED È-ULTI
OBJEC
TIVEÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈ+LUWERÈ$ORDRECHTÈPPÈn
(.* #(!04%2È J^[Ki[e\Ckbj_#9h_j[h_W:[Y_i_ed7dWboi_i
0UKKALAÈ4È È$EALINGÈWITHÈECOLOGICALÈOBJECTIVESÈINÈTHEÈ-ONSUÈPLANNINGÈSYSTEMÈ3ILVAÈ,USI
TANAÈn
0UKKALAÈ4È+ANGASÈ*È È!ÈHEURISTICÈOPTIMIZATIONÈMETHODÈFORÈFORESTÈPLANNINGÈANDÈDECISION
MAKINGÈ3CANDÈ*È&ORÈ2ESÈn
2EEVESÈ #2È ED È È -ODERNÈ HEURISTICÈ TECHNIQUESÈ FORÈ COMBINATORIALÈ PROBLEMSÈ 7ILEYÈ .EWÈ
9ORKÈÈPP
2ENDERÈ"È3TAIRÈ2-È È)NTRODUCTIONÈTOÈMANAGEMENTÈSCIENCEÈ!LLYNÈANDÈ"ACONÈ"OSTONÈÈ
PP
2OYÈ"È È4HEÈOUTRANKINGÈAPPROACHÈANDÈTHEÈFOUNDATIONSÈOFÈ%LECTREÈMETHODSÈ4HEORYÈ$ECI
SIONÈn
3AATYÈ4,È È4HEÈANALYTICÈHIERARCHYÈPROCESSÈ-C'RAW
(ILLÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
3ALOÈ!!È(ËMËLËINENÈ20È È/NÈTHEÈMEASUREMENTÈOFÈPREFERENCESÈINÈTHEÈANALYTICÈHIERARCHYÈ
PROCESSÈ*È-ULTIÈ#RITERIAÈ$ECISIONÈ!NALÈn
#(!04%2È (.+
-ODELINGÈ#ORKÈ/AKÈ0RODUCTIONÈÈ
INÈ0ORTUGAL
DkdeZ[7bc[_ZWH_X[_he'"F[j[hIkhel("
Ùd][be9WhlWb^eEb_l[_hW)
!BSTRACTÈ #ORKÈ OAKÈ 1UERCUSÈSUBERÈ , È STANDSÈ AREÈ MANAGEDÈ INÈ AGRO
SILVO
PASTUREÈ SYSTEMSÈ
ANDÈTHEIRÈSUSTAINABILITYÈDEPENDSÈONÈBALANCEDÈRELATIONSÈAMONGSTÈTHEIRÈCOMPONENTSÈ!CTUALÈ
CHANGESÈINÈMANAGEMENTÈMAINLYÈDUEÈTOÈINCREASINGÈMECHANIZATIONÈANDÈTHEÈINSTALLATIONÈOFÈ
NEWÈ STANDSÈ HAVEÈ REQUIREDÈ THEÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ TOOLSÈ TOÈ GENERATEÈ SCENARIOSÈ FORÈ MANAGE
MENTÈ OPTIONSÈ 4HEÈ MAINTENANCEÈ OFÈ AÈ BALANCEDÈ SUSTAINABLEÈ LANDÈ USEÈ THATÈ MAYÈ COPEÈ WITHÈ
THEÈVARIABILITYÈOFÈTHEÈ-EDITERRANEANÈCLIMATEÈISÈTHEÈMAINÈECOLOGICALÈOUTPUTÈ4HEÈECONOMICALÈ
OUTPUTÈISÈMAINLYÈRELATEDÈTOÈCORKÈPRODUCTIONÈWHICHÈFEEDSÈTHEÈSTOPPERSÈANDÈRELATEDÈINDUS
TRIESÈ!NÈINTEGRATEDÈMULTILEVELÈMONITORINGÈPROCEDUREÈWASÈCREATEDÈINÈORDERÈTOÈUNDERSTANDÈ
THEÈDYNAMICSÈOFÈTHEÈCORKÈOAKÈSYSTEMÈ)NÈTHEÈFRAMEÈOFÈTHISÈMONITORINGÈSYSTEMÈAÈSINGLEÈTREEÈ
SPATIALÈGROWTHÈSIMULATIONÈMODELÈ#/2+&)43 ÈWASÈDEVELOPEDÈTOÈBEÈUSEDÈASÈAÈDECISIONÈMAN
AGEMENTÈ TOOLÈ 4HISÈ CHAPTERÈ DESCRIBESÈ THEÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ #/2+&)43È 4HEÈ INDIVIDUALÈ TREEÈ
MODELÈWASÈDEVELOPEDÈANDÈTESTEDÈINÈSEVERALÈAREASÈOFÈSOUTHERNÈ0ORTUGALÈ4HEÈMODELÈSHOWEDÈ
SUCCESSFULÈPERFORMANCEÈINÈESTIMATINGÈTHEÈCORKÈQUANTITYÈVALUESÈWHENÈEVALUATINGÈTHEÈCALI
BRATIONÈDATAÈSETÈPLOTSÈ4HEÈQUALITYÈESTIMATIONÈREQUIREDÈAÈRECALIBRATIONÈOFÈTHEÈCORKÈGROWTHÈ
MODELÈCONSTRUCTEDÈONÈTHEÈFIRSTÈDATAÈSETÈ.EWÈVALUESÈOFÈCORKÈGROWTHÈMODELÈCOEFFICIENTSÈAREÈ
PRESENTEDÈ!ÈMETHODÈFORÈALTERNATIVEÈDATAÈCOLLECTIONÈBYÈMEANSÈOFÈREMOTELYÈSENSEDÈIMAGERYÈ
WASÈDEVELOPEDÈ!NÈALGORITHMÈFORÈNEARÈINFRAREDÈ.)2 ÈAERIALÈIMAGERYÈWASÈDEVELOPEDÈINÈORDERÈ
TOÈOBTAINÈDATAÈONÈSTANDÈSTRUCTUREÈANDÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈCHARACTERISTICSÈNECESSARYÈFORÈSIMULA
TION
È
)NTRODUCTION
9ehaeWaijWdZieYYkfoWXekj((-+&"&&&^W:=<(&&'e\j^[Fehjk]k[i[
\eh[ijWh[WWdZWh[[Yedec_YWbboWdZ[Yebe]_YWbbo_cfehjWdj$Fehjk]WbfheZkY[i
WXekj+&e\j^[mehbZÉiYehaWdZfheY[ii[i.&e\_j$
J^[cW_dj[dWdY[e\WXWbWdY[ZikijW_dWXb[bWdZki[j^WjYef[im_j^j^[lWh_#
WX_b_joe\j^[C[Z_j[hhWd[WdYb_cWj[_ij^[cW_d[Yebe]_YWbekjfkj$J^[[Yedec_#
' [#cW_b0dh_X[_he6k[lehW$fj
( :[fWhjWc[djeZ[<_jej[Yd_W"Kd_l[hi_ZWZ[Z[xlehW"7fWhjWZe/*"-&&(#++*xlehW"Fehjk]Wb
) :[fWhjWc[dje Z[ ;d][d^Wh_W <beh[ijWb" ?dij_jkje Ikf[h_eh Z[7]hedec_W" JWfWZW ZW7`kZW"
')*/#&'-B_iXed"Fehjk]Wb
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
(., #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
YWbekjfkj_iceijboh[bWj[ZjeYehafheZkYj_edj^Wj\[[Zij^[ijeff[hiWdZh[bWj#
[Z_dZkijh_[i$
9eha eWa ijWdZi Wh[ cWdW][Z _d W]he#i_ble#fWijkh[ ioij[ci ÆcedjWZeiÇ
m^ei[ikijW_dWX_b_joZ[f[dZiedXWbWdY[Zh[bWj_ediX[jm[[dYecfed[dji$Ceh[#
el[h" j^[_h ikijW_dWX_b_jo YWd X[ ZekXbo j^h[Wj[d[Z0 ' Xo j^[ _dj[di_\_YWj_ed e\
j^[kdZ[hYel[hWYj_l_j_[ih[bWj[Zje]hWp_d]ie_bZ_i^_d]WdZkdZ[hYel[hYkbj_lW#
j_ed"m^_Y^h[ikbji_dWbWYae\h[][d[hWj_edWdZj^[Yedi[gk[djZ_iWff[WhWdY[
e\j^[YhemdYel[h"b[WZ_d]jeW]hem_d]h_iae\ie_b[hei_ed"WdZ(Xoj^[[nj[d#
i_\_YWj_edj^Wjb[WZijeijWdZ_dlWi_edXoi^hkXXoif[Y_[iWdZej^[heWai"_dYh[Wi#
_d]Yecf[j_j_edWdZj^[h_iae\\eh[ij\_h[$
J^[i_j[gkWb_jo_dYehaeWaijWdZi_i[ii[dj_Wbboh[bWj[Zjeie_bZ[fj^"ijhkYjkh[
WdZdkjh_[djijWjki"[hei_edj^ki^Wl_d]W^WhZ_cfWYjed_j$J^[beiie\Yhemd
Yel[hm_bb_dYh[Wi[j^[ie_b[nfeikh["b[WZ_d]jeWZ[Yh[Wi[_di_j[gkWb_joWdZWd
[iYWbWj_d] fheY[ii e\ ijWdZ Z[]hWZWj_ed Hei[dX[hho [j Wb$ '/.&1 BWd]ZWb[ WdZ
IY^hWZ[h'/.($
7YjkWb Y^Wd][i _d cWdW][c[dj" \kdZWc[djWbbo em_d] je _dYh[Wi_d] c[Y^W#
d_pWj_ed WdZ _dijWbbWj_ed e\ d[m ijWdZi" ^Wl[ Yh[Wj[Z j^[ d[[Z je Z[l[bef jeebi
je ][d[hWj[ iY[dWh_ei _dlebl_d] Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj efj_edi H_X[_he [j Wb$
(&&'W$
J^[h[Wh[j^h[[a_dZie\YehaÄÆl_h][cÇ"Æi[]kdZ[_hWÇWdZÆWcWZ_WÇÄYehh[#
ifedZ_d]jej^[\_hij"i[YedZWdZikXi[gk[djZ[XWhai$J^[\_hijYeha_iki[Zedbo
\ehW]]bec[hWj[i1j^[i[YedZYWdX[ki[Zje[njhWYjijeff[hiXkjm_j^^_]^fhe#
ZkYj_ede\Z_ifeiWbiZk[jej^[_hh[]kbWh_joe\j^[j_iik[1j^[j^_hZWdZikXi[gk[dj
[njhWYj_edifheZkY[h[]kbWhYehaj_iik[m^_Y^_iefj_cWb\ehijeff[h\WXh_YWj_ed$
9eha gkWb_jo _i Yedd[Yj[Z m_j^ hWZ_Wb j^_Yad[ii eh YWbb_f[h Z[j[hc_d[Z Xo j^[
Yeha]hemj^WdZfehei_jo$J^[fheZkYj_ede\ijeff[hiZ[cWdZiWc_d_ckcYWb#
b_f[he\($-Yc1j^[h[\eh[Yeha]hemj^_ied[e\j^[ceij_cfehjWdjlWh_WXb[i_d
j^[YehaeWafheZkYj_edioij[c$
J^[ifWj_Wbjh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjehiWh[jeebij^Wjdejedbo[dWXb[j^[][d[hWj_ed
e\jh[[]hemj^iY[dWh_eiZ[f[dZ[djedi_j[WdZYecf[j_j_edijWjki"XkjWbieWbbem
j^[i_ckbWj_ede\cWdW][c[djWYj_edi:Wd_[bi'/-,1>ebc[iWdZH[[Z'//'18_]#
_d]WdZ:eXX[hj_d'//(1A_cc_di'//)1@ed[iWdZ9WhX[hho'//*1FkaaWbW[jWb$
'//*1LWdYbWo'//*1Fh[jpiY^'//-18Whj[b_da'//.1=hej[WdZ;h^WhZ'///$
J^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh9EHA<?JImWiZ[l[bef[ZWiWdWffb_YWj_ede\j^[I?B#
L7ceZ[bFh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&(jeYehaeWaijWdZi$?jki[ij^[fej[dj_WbceZ_\_#
[hfh_dY_fb[WdZ_ji^Wh[ii[l[hWbYecfed[djiikY^Wij^[ijhkYjkh[][d[hWjeh"fW#
hWc[j[h_p[Z \eh Yeha eWa ijWdZi" WdZ j^[ l_ikWb_pWj_ed ceZkb[" WZWfj[Z je j^[
YhemdceZ[be\YehaeWaH_X[_he[jWb$(&&'X"(&&)W$J^[i_d]b[YehaeWajh[[i
Wh[ikX`[Yj[ZjedWjkhWb][d[j_YiWdZYecf[j_j_edWdZWhj_\_Y_WbZ[XWha"Yhemd
fhkd_d]"heejfhkd_d]\WYjehij^WjW\\[Yjj^[_h]hemj^$J^[h[\eh["j^[h[_iWbWh][
Wcekdje\kd[nfbW_d[ZlWh_WX_b_joj^Wj_iWZZ[Zjej^[ceZ[bi_dj^[\ehce\hWd#
Zec[hhehYecfed[dji$
J^_iY^Wfj[h_iYedY[hd[Zm_j^0'ceZ[b[lWbkWj_edekji_Z[j^[fWhWc[j[h_#
pWj_edWh[W"(h[YWb_XhWj[Z\kdYj_edijeWZ`kijj^[i_ckbWjehjej^[ijkZoh[]_ed"
)j^[d[m\kdYj_edie\Yhemd]hemj^WdZcehjWb_jo"*j^[d[mceZ[bi\eh_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[_Z[dj_\_YWj_edki_d]W[h_Wbf^eje]hWf^o"WdZ+j^[ie\jmWh[_cfb[#
c[djWj_ede\j^[d[mceZ[bi_d9EHA<?JI$
È $ATA (.-
È
$ATA
<ehceZ[blWb_ZWj_edWdZYedijhkYj_edjmeZ_\\[h[djiekhY[ie\ZWjWm[h[ki[Z0
'j[cfehWho_dl[djehofbejiWdZ(f[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbejiJWXb['*$'$
J^[ ced_jeh_d] ioij[c _i W ZWjW WYgk_i_j_ed ioij[c" m^_Y^ Yebb[Yji WdZ ki#
[i_d\ehcWj_edeXjW_d[Z_dj^[\_[bZWdZbWXehWjeho$<ehWb_ije\iocXebiki[Z_d
j^[ioij[c"i[[JWXb['*$($?d\_[bZmeha"Wbbjh[[i_dj^[fbejiWh[c[Wikh[Z[l[ho
+o[Whi\ehj^[\ebbem_d]fWhWc[j[hi0f[h_c[j[hWj'$)cfeX"jejWbZ[XWha^[_]^j
Z^"ij[c^[_]^ji^"jejWbjh[[^[_]^j^"Yhemd^[_]^jY^WdZYhemdhWZ_ki$
7jZ[XWha_d]j_c[m^_Y^eYYkhi[l[ho/eh'&o[WhijejWb\h[i^Yeham[_]^jYm\
WdZYehaj^_Yad[ii[Wh[[lWbkWj[Z$7ZZ_j_edWbbo"YehaiWcfb[iWh[Yebb[Yj[ZWj
jh[[b[l[b0'W'&'+YcfbWda_ijWa[djeWii[iimWj[hYedj[dj_d_iebWj[ZYed#
jW_d[hi"WdZ(W(&*&YcfbWda_iki[Z\eh_cW][WdWboi_i$?dWbbf[hcWd[dj
fbeji"j^[ie_bfhe\_b[mWiZ[iYh_X[ZWdZiWcfb[im[h[Yebb[Yj[Z\hec[WY^^eh_#
ped$:WjWm[h[Yebb[Yj[Z_dehZ[hjeY^WhWYj[h_p[j^[Yb_cWj[hW_d\Wbb"W_hj[cf[hW#
jkh["ie_bj[cf[hWjkh[WjjmeZ[fj^i"beYWbhWZ_Wj_ed"WdZW_hWdZie_bce_ijkh[$?d
j^[bWXehWjehoi[l[hWbfheY[Zkh[im[h[Z[l[bef[Z0'j^[ie_biWcfb[im[h[fheY#
[ii[Z\ehf^oi_YWbWdZY^[c_YWbWdWboi[i1(Yehace_ijkh[mWi[lWbkWj[Z_dj^[
'&'+YcfbWdai1)Yehafehei_joi_p["dkcX[hWdZi^Wf[e\feh[i"Z[\[YjiWdZ
]hemj^h_d]im[h[c[Wikh[Zm_j^Wd_cW][WdWboi_ijeebki_d]j^[iYWdd[Z(&*&
fbWdai_dehZ[hje[lWbkWj[YehaWdZijeff[hgkWb_jo1*i_d]b[jh[[ifWj_WbijhkY#
jkh[ ceZ[bb_d] ki[Z Z_]_jWb ehj^ef^ejei e\ Yebekh _d\hWh[Z W[h_Wb f^eje]hWf^i"
iYWb['0*&"&&&"m_j^W]hekdZh[iebkj_ede\'cH_X[_he[jWb$(&&)W$
0ERMANENTÈPLOTS
1UINTAÈ'RANDEÈ È È È %VALUATIONCALIBRATION
2UIVOSÈ È È È %VALUATIONCALIBRATION
&IDALGOSÈ È È È %VALUATIONCALIBRATION
4EMPORARYÈINVENTORYÈPLOTS
J^[ZWjWYWc[\hecj^[h[]_ede\9ehkY^[WdZj^[fbejij[cfehWhoWdZf[h#
cWd[djm[h[fbWY[ZieWijeiWcfb[j^[YehaeWaijWdZiWYYehZ_d]jej^[cW_d
mWj[hi^[ZWh[Wie\j^[h[]_ed<_]$'*$'$
J^[Yebb[Yj[ZZWjWi[jmWiZ_l_Z[Z_djejme]hekfi0'd[mceZ[bfWhWc[#
j[h_pWj_edZWjWWdZ([lWbkWj_edYWb_XhWj_edZWjW$J^[d[mceZ[bfWhWc[j[h_pW#
j_edZWjWi[jYehh[ifedZijeWh[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[djcWZ[edj^[,-f[hcWd[dj
fbejij^Wj\ehc[Zj^[XWi_ie\j^[9EHA<?JIfWhWc[j[h_pWj_edWdZm[h[ki[Zje
YedijhkYjd[mYhemd]hemj^ceZ[biWdZcehjWb_joceZ[bi$J^[[lWbkWj_ed%YWb_#
XhWj_edZWjWm[h[ki[Zje[lWbkWj[WdZYWb_XhWj[j^[ceZ[b_dj^[[dj_h[9ehkY^[
h[]_ed$
J^[ Z[iYh_fj_l[ ijWj_ij_Yi e\ j^[ i[j e\ c[Wikh[Z fbeji Wh[ fh[i[dj[Z _d JW#
Xb[i'*$)WdZ'*$*$
È
-ODELÈ3TRUCTURE
J^[ Yeha eWa i_d]b[#jh[[ ifWj_Wb ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh 9EHA<?JI ($' mWi Yed#
ijhkYj[Z m_j^ ZWjW ][d[hWj[Z Xo j^[ ced_jeh_d] ioij[c H_X[_he [j Wb$ (&&'X"
(&&)X$J^[i_ckbWjehmWiXk_bjWiikc_d]j^[fej[dj_Wb_dYh[c[djceZ_\_[hfh_d#
&IGÈÈ,OCATIONÈOFÈTHEÈTEMPORARYÈANDÈPERMANENTÈPLOTS
È -ODELÈ3TRUCTURE (./
4ABLEÈÈ3YMBOLSÈUSEDÈINÈTHISÈMODEL
DOBÈ $IAMETERÈMEASUREDÈATÈÈMÈ
È OVERÈBARKÈCM È SHÈ 3TEMÈHEIGHTÈM
POSÈ 0ERIMETERÈMEASUREDÈATÈÈMÈ
È OVERÈSTEMÈCM È CHÈ #ROWNÈHEIGHTÈM
POBÈ 0ERIMETERÈMEASUREDÈATÈÈMÈ
È OVERÈBARKÈCM È DHÈ $EBARKÈHEIGHTÈM
ICAÈ #ROWNÈHORIZONTALÈPROJECTIONÈAREAÈ
È INCREMENTÈOVERÈ
YEARÈPERIODÈM È EÈ #ORKÈTHICKNESSÈCM
ICAPOTÈ 0OTENTIALÈCROWNÈHORIZONTALÈPROJECTIONÈ
È AREAÈINCREMENTÈOVERÈ
YEARÈPERIODÈM È CGÈ #UMULATIVEÈSECTIONALÈAREA
È È È OFÈCORKÈGROWTHÈ
È È È INÈÈYEARSÈM
Y_fb[Fh[jpiY^'//-1H_X[_he[jWb$(&&'X0p3pfejceZ_\_[h!E"m^[h[pfej_ij^[
fej[dj_Wb]hemj^WiW\kdYj_ede\i_j[1ceZ_\_[h_ij^[h[ZkYj_ed\WYjehWiW\kdY#
j_ede\j^[ifWj_WbYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nWdZj^[_dj[di_joe\Z[XWha1WdZE_iWhWd#
Zec[hheh$
9EHA<?JI ($' _i Yecfei[Z e\ ikX#]hemj^ ceZ[bi Yeha" ij[c" jh[[ ^[_]^j
WdZYhemd"YehafheZkYj_edceZ[biWdZcehjWb_joceZ[biH_X[_he[jWb$(&&'X"
(&&)W$?dWbbj^[ceZ[bi"[nY[fjfej[dj_Wb\kdYj_edi"WhWdZec[hhehYecfed[dj
_i WZZ[Z$ 7 ijhkYjkh[ ][d[hWjeh IJHK=;D mWi ki[Z" XWi[Z ed W \_bj[h[Z Fe_i#
iedfheY[iiFh[jpiY^'//("'//-"m^ei[\_bj[him[h[fWhWc[j[h_p[Z\ehYehaeWa
ijWdZi dWjkhWb ifWj_Wb ijhkYjkh[ H_X[_he [j Wb$ (&&'X$ J^_i ijhkYjkh[ ][d[hWjeh
(/& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
4ABLEÈÈ$ESCRIPTIVEÈSTATISTICSÈOFÈTHEÈINCREMENTÈDATAÈOFÈTHEÈ-ACHOQUEIRAÈPLOTÈATÈTREEÈLEVELÈ
3%-È3TANDARDÈERRORÈOFÈTHEÈMEANÈ3$ÈSTANDARDÈDEVIATION
&IGÈÈ#/2+&)43ÈÈÈ
FLOWCHART
È -ETHODS (/'
i_ckbWj[il_hjkWbijWdZiWim[bbWih[][d[hWj_edH_X[_he[jWb$(&&)W$
<_]kh['*$(fh[i[djij^[9EHA<?JI($'\bemY^Whj$
È
-ETHODS
?dj^_ii[Yj_edj^[c[j^eZiWdZfheY[Zkh[iWh[fh[i[dj[ZWi\ebbemi0'ceZ[b
[lWbkWj_edekji_Z[j^[fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edWh[W1(ceZ[bb_d]fheY[Zkh[i1)Yh[#
Wj_ede\Wd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[b\eh_Z[dj_\_YWj_edWdZZ[b_d[Wj_ede\YehaeWa
Yhemdi1WdZ*ie\jmWh[Z[l[befc[djWdZ_cfb[c[djWj_ede\j^[d[mceZ[bi$
È
-ODELÈ%VALUATIONÈ/UTSIDEÈTHEÈ0ARAMETERIZATIONÈ!REA
J^[ijkZoh[]_ed_iYecfei[Ze\j^h[[cW_dmWj[hi^[Zi<_]$'*$'Z[\_d[ZXo
j^[H_l[hIehhW_W_dj^[iekj^"j^[H_l[h;hhW_dj^[c_ZZb[WdZj^[H_l[hCk][_d
j^[dehj^$J^[[dj_h[h[]_ed_iediWdZZ[fei_jie\j^[H_XWj[`efhel_dY["e\C_e#
Y[d_Y\ehcWj_ed"Wc[iW#jof[bWdZiYWf[m_j^K#i^Wf[Z]kbb_[i"lWbb[oiWdZeYYW#
i_edWbiWdZijed[ekjYhefi$Ibef[ihWd][X[jm[[d&WdZceh[j^Wd)+"X[jm[[d&
WdZ+X[_d]j^[ceijh[fh[i[djWj_l[ibef[i$J^[Wl[hW][WddkWbhW_d\Wbb_iWXekj
,&&cc$ J^[ cW_d ie_b \Wc_b_[i Wh[ ;kjh_Y \bkl_iebi" :oijh_Y b[fjeiebi" 9WcXh_Y
feZpebiWdZ;kjh_Yb[fjeiebi$
J^[fbWY[c[dje\j^[fbejiW_c[Zj^[[lWbkWj_ede\j^[9EHA<?JIceZ[bekj#
i_Z[j^[fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edWh[WCWY^egk[_hW"<_]$'*$'"i_jkWj[Z_dj^[dehj^[hd
fWhje\j^[H_l[hCk][mWj[hi^[Z$I[b[Yj_ede\j^[beYWj_edie\j^[[lWbkWj_ed%fW#
hWc[j[h_pWj_edfbejimWicWZ[_dj^h[[ij[fi0'_Z[dj_\_YWj_ede\j^[mWj[hi^[Z
Wh[WiWdZYbWii_\_YWj_ede\j^[YehaeWafkh[ijWdZim_j^_d[WY^e\j^[cWj=?I
b[l[b"ki_d]Z_]_jWbjefe]hWf^_YcWfiWdZZ_]_jWbW[h_Wbf^eje]hWf^i1(_Z[dj_\_#
YWj_ede\j^[ceijh[fh[i[djWj_l[ijWdZi_d[WY^mWj[hi^[Zki_d]jefe]hWf^_Y"ie_b
WdZYhemdYel[hlWh_WXb[i1)i[b[Yj_ede\j^[fbejbeYWj_ed_dj^[\_[bZWYYehZ_d]
jeijWdZijhkYjkh["cec[dje\Z[XWhaWdZW]h[[c[dje\j^[emd[hjeWbbemj^[_d#
ijWbbWj_edWdZc[Wikh[c[dje\j^[fbeji$
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed fheY[Zkh[ e\ j^[ fheZkYj_ed ceZkb[ e\ 9EHA<?JI ($'
<_]$'*$(mWiW_c[ZWj0'Yeha]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ(YehaZhom[_]^jceZ#
[biJWXb['*$+$
J^[i[ceZ[bim[h[ki[Zje[ij_cWj[gkWdj_joYehaZhom[_]^jceZ[biWdZ
gkWb_joYeha]hemj^ceZ[bim^_Y^Wh[j^[[Yedec_YfWhWc[j[hiki[ZjeXk_bZ
j^[YehafheZkYj_ed_dZ[nYf_m^_Y^j^kiYecX_d[ifheZkYj_edWdZgkWb_joZ[#
\_d[ZXoYehaj^_Yad[ii0Yf_3ZYmG"m^[h[ZYm_iZhoYeham[_]^jf[h^[YjWh[
WdZG_iWgkWb_jo_dZ[n
d
3
G3 _fafa
a3'
(/( #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
4ABLEÈÈ$ESCRIPTIVEÈSTATISTICSÈOFÈTHEÈEVALUATIONÈCALIBRATIONÈPLOTSÈATÈTREEÈLEVEL
2UIVOS
NÈÈ
&IDALGOS
NÈÈ
#ARRETA
NÈÈ
4ABLEÈÈ#ONTINUE
#ORKÈCUMULATIVEÈPOTENTIALÈGROWTHÈ ÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈAÈ
ÈBÈ
ÈDÈ
ÈGDOS
CG ÈÈ
9OSHIDAÈ)ÈFUNCTIONÈ:EIDEÈ È È AÈBÈDFSITE È ÈORÈ
ÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈGOSÈ
È BÈÈGDOS
È
È
BÈ
ÈID
#ORKÈGROWTHÈMODIFIERÈ MÈÈEÈnAÈ
ÈCI È ÈORÈ
ÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈNÈÈÈÈÈ
DJÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈ
¤
ÈCIIÈÈ È
È
È
D ÈÈÈÈÈÈÈDISTIJ
(EGYIÈCOMPETITIONÈINDEXÈCOMPETITORÈSELECTIONÈCRITERIAÈDISTIJÈÈDJÈ
ÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈÈJÈÈÈÈ I DIÈANDÈDJÈDIAMETERÈATÈÈMÈOFÈTARGETÈTREEÈIÈANDÈCOMPETITORÈJÈ)NTENSITYÈ
OFÈDEBARKÈIDÈÈDS GOS
m_j^_faj^[_dZ[nfh_Y[\ehYehagkWb_joa"faj^[fhefehj_ede\Yeham[_]^j
_dYehagkWb_joYbWiia"WdZdj^[dkcX[he\YehagkWb_joYbWii[i$J^[_dZ[nfh_Y#
[i Wh[ _dZ[n[Z je j^[ fh_Y[ e\ j^[ ceij lWbkWXb[ Yeha gkWb_jo YbWii \eh _dZkijho
H_X[_he[jWb$(&&)W$J^_i_dZ[n_iki[Z_dj^[Z[Y_i_edcWa_d]fheY[iiYecX_d[Z
m_j^ej^[hijWdZlWh_WXb[i_di_ckbWj_edijkZ_[iH_X[_he[jWb$(&&)W"(&&*$
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed mWi f[h\ehc[Z \eh [WY^ fbej ki_d] j^[ \ebbem_d] fheY[Zkh[0
'WYj_lWj_ede\j^[ZWjWcWdW][c[djceZkb[jeYecfkj[j^[d[Y[iiWho_d_j_Wb
lWh_WXb[ijeijWhjj^[i_ckbWjeh1(hkd'&&h[f[j_j_edi\eh[WY^fbejjeYedijhkYj
êÄ
n¦/+Y_m^[h[ êÄ
n_ij^[[ij_cWj[Zc[Wd\eh'&&h[f[j_j_edie\W'#o[Whi_ckbW#
j_edWdZ/+Y__ij^[/+Yed\_Z[dY[_dj[hlWb\eh[WY^c[Wd$J^[[lWbkWj_edmWi
Ä
Zed[WjfeiYbWiib[l[bYecfWh_d]j^[h[WblWbk[e\j^[c[Wdn¦/+Y_"c[Wikh[Z
êÄ
_dj^[\_[bZm_j^n¦/+Y_$
Ä nmWi[lWbkWj[Zm_j^b_d[Whh[]h[ii_ed_dehZ[hje
J^[[hhehijhkYjkh[nÄ êÄ
\_dZjh[dZij^WjYekbZX[ki[ZjeYehh[YjX_Wi$
(/* #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
È
-ODELLINGÈ0ROCEDURES
È
2ECALIBRATION
?d j^[ h[YWb_XhWj_ed fheY[ii" j^[ [lWbkWj_ed%YWb_XhWj_ed fbej ZWjW i[j _i ki[Z$
J^[d[mfWhWc[j[hiWdZceZ[bijWj_ij_YiWh[YWbYkbWj[Zm_j^j^[dedb_d[Whh[]h[i#
i_edceZkb[e\IFII"l[hi_ed'($&$
È
-ORTALITY
J^[YWki[ie\cehjWb_joe\YehaeWajh[[iYWdX[h[bWj[Zjei[l[hWb\WYjehiW]["
fh[iikh[e\Z[XWha"fh[iikh[e\ie_bZ_i^_d]"fh[iikh[e\Yhemdfhkd_d]"fh[i[dY[
e\ Z_i[Wi[i WdZ fbW]k[i" i_j[ gkWb_jo" [jY$ m^_Y^ WYj Wbed[ eh _d YecX_dWj_ed je
YWki[WbWh][de_i[edj^[ZWjW$
7be]_ij_Y\kdYj_edmWiki[Z"m^_Y^_im_Z[bo[cfbeo[Z_dcehjWb_joceZ[bb_d]
LWdYbWo'//+1:khiao'//-1Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($H[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[djim[h[
jWa[d\hec,-f[hcWd[djfbejie\&$+^Wel[hWf[h_eZe\+o[Whi_dehZ[hjeceZ#
[bcehjWb_jo$J^[jh[[im[h[YbWii_\_[ZWi0
o3 [
'"Z[WZjh[[
&"Wb_l[jh[[
7 l[Yjeh e\ _dZ[f[dZ[dj lWh_WXb[i nÉ 3 n'" n(" ¾" nf mWi Yedi_Z[h[Z" Yec#
fei[Ze\Z[dZhec[jh_YWdZ]hemj^fWhWc[j[hi$
9edi_Z[h_d]j^[YedZ_j_edWbfheXWX_b_jo;O%n3Pn3FO3'%n"j^[ceZ#
[be\be]_ij_Yh[]h[ii_ed_i0
[]n
Pn3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
'![]n
J^[ be]_ij_Y ceZ[b mWi \_jj[Z m_j^ j^[ cWn_ckc b_a[b_^eeZ c[j^eZ ki_d]
IFIIl[hi_ed'($&$J^[lWh_WXb[im[h[i[b[Yj[ZXoj^[\ehmWhZMWbZc[j^eZ$
È
#REATIONÈOFÈANÈ)NDIVIDUALÈ4REEÈ-ODELÈFORÈ)DENTIFICATIONÈ
ANDÈ$ELINEATIONÈOFÈ#ORKÈ/AKÈ#ROWNS
J^[ ceZ[b ki[Z d[Wh _d\hWh[Z D?H h[cej[bo i[di[Z f^eje]hWf^o" \eh i[l#
[hWbh[Wiedi0'_d\hWh[Zf^eje]hWf^oZe[idejfhel_Z[WmWoe\i[[_d]j^hek]^
\e]" m^_Y^ Yedi_iji e\ mWj[h Zhefb[ji" Xkj _j YWd _cfhel[ l_i_X_b_jo j^hek]^ Y[h#
jW_da_dZe\^Wp[m^[h[j^[b_]^jiYWjj[h_d]_ifheZkY[ZXockY^icWbb[hfWhj_#
È -ETHODS (/+
Yb[i$J^ki"_d\hWh[Zf^eje]hWf^oZe[idejWbmWoih[ikbj_dWd_dYh[Wi[_dj^[hWd][
e\l_i_ed"Xkj_j][d[hWbbo_dYh[Wi[ij^[YedjhWije\j^[Z_ijWdjikX`[YjiWdZj^ki
j^[ Wcekdj e\ Z[jW_b j^Wj YWd X[ i[[d1 ( D?H h[\b[YjWdY[ Z[Yh[Wi[i Wi W h[ikbj
e\WY^Wd][_db[W\eh_[djWj_ed"\hecfh[Zec_dWdjbo^eh_pedjWbjefh[Zec_dWdj#
bol[hj_YWb"WjWY[hjW_dijW][_dj^[]hemj^YoYb[$D?Hh[\b[YjWdY[WbieZ[Yh[Wi[i
m_j^beiie\b[W\Y^behef^obbZk[jelWh_ekih[WiediikY^Wijh[[_bbd[iiWdZZWc#
W][$J^ki"D?Hh[\b[YjWdY[_iif[Y_[iif[Y_\_YZk[je_jiZ[f[dZ[dY[edj^[i[\WY#
jehi=_j[bied(&&'
J^[f^ejeijWa[d_dI[fj[cX[h'//+m[h[ki[Z_dj^_imeha$J^[\eYkib[d]j^
mWi'+*"YWc[hWjof[P[_iiHCAJef'+%()WdZiYWb[e\j^[f^ejei'0*&"&&&$J^[
f^ejeim[h[iYWdd[Zm_j^Wf_n[bh[iebkj_ede\Wffhen_cWj[bo*&*&Yc$
7 d[m ikX#ceZkb[ \eh 9EHA<?JI mWi Z[l[bef[Z Wbbem_d] j^[ ki[ e\ W[h_#
Wb_cW][hoWiWdWbj[hdWj_l[iekhY[e\_dfkjZWjW\ehj^[i_ckbWj_ed$J^_ic[j^eZ
f[hc_jij^[Wffb_WdY[e\Z_]_jWb_p[ZD?HW[h_Wbf^ejeiWdZfheZkY[i_d\ehcWj_ed
WXekj_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iYhemdi_p["ij[cfei_j_ed"[jY$d[Y[iiWhoje_d_j_Wb_p[j^[
i_ckbWj_ed$J^[Wb]eh_j^cYedi_ijie\i[l[hWbij[fi0'_cW][i[]c[djWj_ed"(
_dZ_l_ZkWbYhemdZ[b_d[Wj_edWdZ)YecfkjWj_ede\_dfkjZWjW\eh9EHA<?JI$
È
)MAGEÈ3EGMENTATION
7 d[m _dZ[n \eh Yebekh jhWdi\ehcWj_ed e\ C[Z_j[hhWd[Wd \eh[iji mWi fhe#
fei[Z$?ji^em[Z[gkWbWYYkhWYof[h\ehcWdY[m_j^j^Wje\ej^[h_dZ_Y[ifhefei[Z
\ehi_c_bWhfkhfei[i_dZ_\\[h[djWh[Wi"Xkj_dlebl[Zj^[icWbb[ijel[h[ij_cWj_ed
[hhehWdZWle_Z[Zj^[bWh][ij]h[ob[l[biedj^[iYWb[\ehikXi[gk[dji^Wf[WdWb#
oi_i$F[h\ehcWdY[mWi[lWbkWj[ZXoYecfWh_d]m_j^cWdkWbbofheY[ii[Z_cW][i$
<ekhZ_\\[h[dji[jie\W[h_Wbf^eje]hWf^iZ_\\[h[djo[Wh"\b_]^j^[_]^jWdZiYWb[
m[h[ki[Z$<_\j[[diYWdim[h[jWa[d\hecZ_\\[h[djfWhjie\j^[f^eje"][d[hWbbo
dej\khj^[hj^Wd,&e\j^[m_Zj^\hecj^[Y[djh[$Ed[f_n[bYehh[ifedZ[Zje)&"
*&WdZ.&Yc$J^[_dZ_Y[i_dJWXb['*$,Wh[Wi\ebbemi0
?dZ[n' (HÄ=Ä8%(E^jW[jWb$'/.&
?dZ[n( (+,QH%H!=!8S7dZh[Wi[d[jWb$'//-
?dZ[n) _'_(_)d[mF^_bb_fWdZHWj^(&&(1YebekhifWY[Z[\_d[Zm_j^j^[\ebbem#
_d]cWjh_n0
?dZ[n* D[m_dZ[nÄ8#igkWh[Ikhel[jWb$(&&*W
?dZ[n+ DehcWb_p[ZZ_\\[h[dY[_dZ[nD:?Me[XX[Ya[[jWb$'//(0
h[Z#]h[[d
D:?3 ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
h[Z!]h[[d
(/, #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
4ABLEÈÈ!CCURACYÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈINDICESÈINÈDIFFERENTÈPHOTOÈSETS
È
)NDIVIDUALÈ#ROWNÈ$ELINEATION
7dWb]eh_j^cXWi[Zedjh[[jef_Z[dj_\_YWj_edWdZYhemd[Z][Z[j[Yj_edmWi
Z[l[bef[ZWdZj[ij[Z$J^[ioij[cX[]_diXobeea_d]\ehj^[ZWha[ij_dj^[YWi[e\
j^[8#igkWh[_dZ[nf_n[b_dj^[m^eb[_cW][$J^_if_n[b_iYedi_Z[h[ZWiWd_d_j_Wb
fe_dj\ehj^[\ebbem_d]ij[fi"m^[h[_dWbbfeii_Xb[Z_h[Yj_edij^[h[_iWi[WhY^\eh
WlWbb[oehWYedjekhe\j^[Yhemd$7Yedjekh_i\ekdZm^[dj^[d[njf_n[bX[_d]
eXi[hl[Z_dj^WjZ_h[Yj_ed_icWha[ZWiXWYa]hekdZ$7lWbb[o_i\ekdZm^[dj^[
d[njf_n[b]h[ob[l[b_ii_]d_\_YWdjbo^_]^[hj^[Z_\\[h[dY[_ibWh][hj^Wded[j^Wd
j^[fh[i[djf_n[b$J^_ii^ekbZc[Wdj^Wjj^[h[\b[Yj[Zb_]^jd[ii_i_dYh[Wi_d]X[#
YWki[e\Wdej^[hYhemdi[]c[dj$J^[_d\ehcWj_edWXekjYhemdi[]c[dj_iijeh[Z
WdZWdWbop[Z$;WY^Wd]b[b[d]j^YhemdWn_ic[Wikh[Z_iYecfWh[Zm_j^b[d]j^i
c[Wikh[Z\ehjmekd_jiXWYamWhZWdZ\ehmWhZ$?\j^[fheY[ii[Zb[d]j^_ii_]d_\#
_YWdjboZ_\\[h[djÄ_\_j_iWdekjb_[hWced]j^[ej^[h\ekhb[d]j^iÄ_jii_p[_ii[j
jej^[Wl[hW][e\j^[i[\ekh$J^_i_iZed[X[YWki[iec[ekjb_[hiYWdWff[WhZk[je
j^[hekdZ_d]WdZWbieiec[j_c[ij^[h[_idelWbb[o_dY[hjW_dZ_h[Yj_edi"ehj^[
ioij[cYWd]ej^hek]^j^[iWc[]h[ob[l[be\j^[ej^[hjh[[$7\j[hj^_ifheY[iie\
Æ[Z][iceej^_d]ÇWbbf_n[biX[bed]_d]jej^[Yhemdi[]c[dj"_dYbkZ_d]j^[[Z][
f_n[bi"Wh[cWha[ZWdZj^[oWh[[nYbkZ[Z\hecikXi[gk[djWdWboi_i$
È
#OMPUTATIONÈOFÈ)NPUTÈ$ATAÈFORÈ#/2+&)43
J^[WkjecWj[Zioij[c_iWXb[je\_dZedbo_d\ehcWj_edWXekjj^[jh[[ijeh[Z
_dj^[_cW][$J^_i_ih[fh[i[dj[ZXoj^[jh[[fei_j_edWdZj^[jh[[YhemdZ_c[d#
i_edWdZi^Wf[$J^[i[jmelWh_WXb[iWh[WdekjYec[e\j^[_cW][WdWboi_ifheY[ii$
>em[l[h"\ehi_ckbWj_edhkdWdZijkZo"iec[ej^[hjh[[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yickijd[Y#
[iiWh_boX[][d[hWj[Z$7iWd_dfkjjej^[ie\jmWh[_j_i_cfehjWdjj^Wj[WY^jh[[^Wi
_ji_Z[dj_\o_d]dkcX[h$NWdZOfei_j_edi^Wl[jeX[h[YWbYkbWj[ZjeX[eh_[dj[Zje
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS (/-
j^[Y[djh[m_j^YeehZ_dWj[i&"&$J^[Z[f[dZ[dYoe\YhemdWh[Wjeij[cWh[WWj
Xh[Wij^[_]^j'$)c_iademd$?dehZ[hje[ij_cWj[ij[cZ_Wc[j[h\hecYhemdWh#
[Wc[Wikh[Zedj^[f^eje]hWf^WXWYa#YWbYkbWj_ed[gkWj_ed_iki[Z$I_c_bWhfheY#
[ii[iWh[ki[Zje[ij_cWj[j^[jh[[WdZYhemd^[_]^ji$J^[bWijlWh_WXb[d[[Z[ZÄ
ij[c^[_]^jÄ_iZ[\_d[ZhWdZecbo$7bblWh_WXb[iWh[ijeh[Z_dj^[j[nj\_b["m^_Y^
YWdX[fheY[ii[Zm_j^j^[]hemj^i_ckbWjehceZ[b9EHA<?JI($'$
Fh[Z_Yj_edXWi[ZedXej^ZWjWi[ji"\_[bZWdZf^ejei"m[h[YecfWh[ZIkhel
(&&*X$J^[h[ikbjiWff[WhjeX[kiWXb[\ehi^ehj#j[hcfh[Z_Yj_ede\YehafheZkY#
j_ed$<ehWbed][h#j[hcfh[Z_Yj_edj^[c_ii_d]h[][d[hWj_edm^_Y^_iYWki_d]j^[
Z_\\[h[dY[YWdX[[b_c_dWj[ZXoh[]kbWhh[cej[i[di_d]ehfWhj_Wb\_[bZc[Wikh[#
c[dj$
È
3OFTWAREÈ$EVELOPMENTÈANDÈ)MPLEMENTATION
J^[ ceZ[b mWi _dYehfehWj[Z _dje j^[ ie\jmWh[ [dl_hedc[dj Xo j^[ ]hWf^_Y
ki[h_dj[h\WY[=K?Yecced\ehM_dZemiioij[ci$J^[iekhY[YeZ[mWimh_jj[d
_dEX`[YjFWiYWbYecf_b[Zm_j^W8ehbWdZ:[bf^_Yecf_b[h$J^[ikX#ceZkb[i\eh
^WdZb_d]j^[=?IZWjW"h[WZ_d]WdZZ_ifbWo_d]j^[i^Wf[\_b[im[h[fWhj_Wbbomh_j#
j[d_dWii[cXb[h_dijhkYj_edi$
:WjW\heci_ckbWj_ediWh[ijeh[Z_dZWjWXWi[iFWhWZen-WdZ:87I;?L$J^[
bWjj[h_id[Y[iiWho\ehYecfWj_X_b_jom_j^=?Ii^Wf[\_b[i$?dfkjZWjWWh[_djheZkY[Z
_dj[nj\_b[i"Xkj_j_iWbiefeii_Xb[je_djheZkY[ZWjW_dj[hWYj_l[bo$=hWf^_YWbekjfkj
ki[iWC_Yheie\j:_h[YjN[d]_d[$
?cfehjWdjYe[\\_Y_[djie\j^[ceZ[bWdZlWh_WXb[i"m^_Y^Wh[fbWdd[ZjeX[YWb#
_XhWj[Z_d\kjkh[\ehd[mh[]_edi"Wh[h[cel[Z\hecj^[iekhY[YeZ[WdZWh[WY#
Y[ii_Xb[\eh_dj[hWYj_l[Y^Wd][i_dj^[ie\jmWh[c[dk$
È
!NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS
J^_ii[Yj_edfh[i[dji0'j^[[lWbkWj_edh[ikbjie\j^[i_ckbWjehekji_Z[j^[
fWhWc[j[h_pWj_ed Wh[W1 ( j^[ h[YWb_XhWj[Z ceZ[b fWhWc[j[hi WdZ ijWj_ij_Yi1 )
j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbYehaeWaceZ[b\ehYhemd_Z[dj_\_YWj_edWdZZ[b_d[Wj_ed_dD?H1
*ie\jmWh[Z[l[befc[dji1WdZ+Wi_ckbWj_edijkZo[nWcfb[$
È
%VALUATIONÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈ3IMULATORÈ/UTSIDEÈ
THEÈ0ARAMETERIZATIONÈ!REA
J^[[lWbkWj_ede\j^[ceZ[b"f[h\ehc[Zm_j^d[mZWjW"W_c[Zjej[ijj^[ceZ#
[bWjh[]_edWbb[l[b_dehZ[hjeZ[Y_Z[j^[d[Y[ii_joe\h[YWb_XhWj_ede\j^[]hemj^
ceZ[bi$
(/. #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
?dj^[[lWbkWj_ed"j^[i_ckbWj[Zekjfkji\ehYehafheZkYj_edYehaZhom[_]^j"
YmZ"a]WdZYeha]hemj^Yehaj^_Yad[ii"["YcWh[YecfWh[Zm_j^j^[h[WbZW#
jW$J^[i_ckbWj_edmWicWZ[m_j^'&&'#o[Whi_ckbWj_ediWdZj^[h[ikbjiWh[fh[#
êÄ
i[dj[Z\eh[WY^fbejFeiYbWiim_j^j^[ijWj_ij_Yi0n¦/+Y_U][ij_cWj[ZlWbk[i"]
Ä
WdZn¦/+Y_Ucc[Wikh[ZZWjW"c$
<hec<_]$'*$)_jYWdX[i[[dj^Wjj^[i_ckbWjeh^WZWZ_\\[h[djX[^Wl_ekh_d
[WY^ fbej YedY[hd_d] j^[ [ij_cWj_ed fh[Y_i_ed _d Fei YbWii[i$ ?d Wbb fbeji j^[h[
m[h[dei_]d_\_YWdjZ_\\[h[dY[iX[jm[[dj^[[ij_cWj[ZWdZc[Wikh[ZZWjW[nY[fj
_dFeiYbWii'&&Ä')&_dGk_djW=hWdZ[WdZ_dFeiYbWii',&Ä'/&_d9Whh[jWfbeji$
?d Gk_djW =hWdZ[ W ioij[cWj_Y kdZ[h[ij_cWj_ed e\ Yeha j^_Yad[ii _d bem[h Fei
YbWii[imWieXi[hl[Z"j^_ih[ikbjX[_d]_deffei_j_edjej^[ed[eXi[hl[Z_d9Wh#
h[jW$?dj^[Hk_leifbejj^[ceZ[bX[^Wl[Zceh[[hhWj_YWbbo"kdZ[h[ij_cWj_d]j^[
j^_Yad[ii_dFeiYbWii'&&Ä')&WdZel[h[ij_cWj_d]_j_dFeiYbWii4'/&$J^[i[h[#
ikbjiYWdX[[nfbW_d[Zj^ki0'j^[c[Wikh[ZZWjWi[jfh[i[djibWh][lWh_WX_b_jo"
m^_Y^cWa[ij^[c[Wd[ij_cWj_edb[iifh[Y_i[WdZi_ckbWj_ed[lWbkWj_edb[iiWY#
YkhWj[1WdZ(j^[i_j[YedZ_j_edZ_\\[h[ZX[jm[[dj^[fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edfbejiWdZ
j^[[lWbkWj_ed%YWb_XhWj_edfbeji$J^[fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edfbejie\CWY^egk[_hWWh[
fbWY[Z_dj^[dehj^[hdmWj[hi^[Z<_]$'*$'m^[h[j^[ijWdZiWh[i_jkWj[Z_dWh[#
Wim_j^]h[Wj[hibef[im_j^deWYY[iijej^[mWj[hjWXb["i^Wh_d]j^[i[i_j[YedZ_#
j_edim_j^j^[9Whh[jWWdZHk_leifbeji$J^[Gk_djW=hWdZ[fbej_ii_jkWj[Z_dW
\bWjped[m_j^WYY[iijej^[mWj[hjWXb[$J^[eXi[hl[Zh[ikbji_d9Whh[jWi^em]eeZ
X[^Wl_ekhe\j^[i_ckbWjeh[nY[fj_d/e\j^[bWh][#Z_c[di_edjh[[ie\FeiYbWii#
[i',&Ä'/&WdZ4'/&"m^_Y^Wh[_dW\bWjWh[Wm_j^kdZ[hYel[hm[[ZYhefi_dZ_YWj#
_d]j^Wjj^[i[jh[[iWh[X[d[\_j_d]\heciec[dkjh_[djikffbo\hecj^[Yhefi$?d
j^[Hk_leifbej"edY[W]W_d"j^[Z[di_joe\j^[bWh][jh[[imWikdZ[h[ij_cWj[Z"_d#
Z_YWj_d]j^Wjj^_ibWYae\_d\ehcWj_edYedY[hd_d]bWh][jh[[i_dj^[fWhWc[j[h_pW#
j_edZWjWi[jcWoX[h[ifedi_Xb[\ehj^[eXi[hl[Zf[h\ehcWdY[$?dGk_djW=hWdZ[
j^[WYY[ii_Xb[mWj[hjWXb[Wbbemij^[oekd]jh[[ije]hemX[jj[h"[l[d_dj^[eX#
i[hl[Z^_]^Yecf[j_j_edijWjki$
EXi[hl_d]j^[lWbk[ie\[]Ä[c_dJWXb['*$-WdZYedi_Z[h_d]j^WjYecc[hY_Wb
YehaYbWii[iWh[Z[\_d[ZXoed[lWh_WXb[Äj^[b_d[&$((+YcÄ_jYWdX[i[[dj^Wj
j^[[ij_cWj_ed[hhehiWh["_dj^[cW`eh_jo"_d\[h_ehjej^[b_d[_dWbbfbejFeiYbWii#
[i"_dZ_YWj_d]j^Wjj^[Yecc[hY_WbYbWii_\_YWj_edmekbZdejX[W\\[Yj[ZXoj^[c$?d
j[hcie\el[hWbbc[Wdj^_Yad[ii"edboj^[Gk_djW=hWdZ[fbej_iWXel[j^['b_d["
_dZ_YWj_d]j^Wj_dj^_iijWdZj^[i_ckbWjeh_idejf[h\ehc_d]iWj_i\WYjeh_bo$
<_]kh['*$* i^emi j^[ [hheh []Ä[c ijhkYjkh[ e\ j^[ i_ckbWj_ed$7bb h[]h[i#
i_edi[nfh[iij^[el[h#WdZkdZ[h[ij_cWj_edh[\[hh[ZjeWXel["Xkjded[e\j^[c
_ii_]d_\_YWdjWjA3&$&+"_dZ_YWj_d]dei_]d_\_YWdjjh[dZ_d[ij_cWj_ed$
J^[i[h[ikbjib[Zjej^[Z[Y_i_edjeh[YWb_XhWj[j^[Yeha]hemj^ceZ[bij^ki0
'j^[h[ikbjieXi[hl[Z\hecbWh][jh[[i_dj^[9Whh[jWWdZHk_leifbeji_dZ_YWj[
WbWYae\_d\ehcWj_edWjj^_ib[l[b_dj^[fWhWc[j[h_pWj_edZWjW1WdZ(j^[Gk_d#
jW=hWdZ[ZWjWm_bbX[ki[\kbjeh[YWb_XhWj[fej[dj_WbceZ_\_[hYeha]hemj^\kdY#
j_edi_dehZ[hjeWZWfjj^[i_ckbWjehjej^[i[i_j[YedZ_j_edi$
<_]kh['*$+WdZJWXb['*$.i^emj^[]eeZf[h\ehcWdY[e\j^[YehaZhom[_]^j
ceZ[bi_d[ij_cWj_d]YehafheZkYj_ed$Edboj^[9Whh[jWh[ikbji_dZ_YWj[Wioij[c#
Wj_Yel[h[ij_cWj_ede\m[_]^j"m^_Y^YekbZX[j^[h[ikbje\j^[c[j^eZiki[Z_d
mWj[hce_ijkh[[lWbkWj_edWffb_[Zjej^_iZWjWi[j_d'//&$
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS (//
&IGÈÈ-EANÈMEASUREDÈ
THICKNESSÈE?MÈCM ÈANDÈ
MEANÈESTIMATEDÈTHICKNESSÈ
E?GÈCM ÈANDÈTHEÈÈCON
FIDENCEÈINTERVALÈÈCI FORÈ
EACHÈMEANÈFORÈEACHÈPOSÈCLASSÈ
INÈCM È!BOVEÈ1UINTAÈ'RANDEÈ
PLOTÈMIDDLEÈ2UIVOSÈPLOTÈBE
LOWÈ#ARRETAÈPLOT
J^[Gk_djW=hWdZ[h[ikbji_dJWXb['*$._bbkijhWj[j^[l[ho]eeZX[^Wl_ekhe\
j^[i_ckbWjeh_dYedjhWZ_Yj_d]j^[f[h\ehcWdY[e\j^[Yeha]hemj^ceZ[b"m^_Y^
YWdX[[nfbW_d[ZXoj^[icWbb[hZ[di_joe\j^[YehaZk[jej^[^_]^[h]hemj^$J^[
h[ikbji\ehj^[Hk_leifbejWh[[l_Z[dY[e\j^[feeh[hX[^Wl_ekhe\j^[ceZ[b[i#
f[Y_Wbbo_dj^[FeiYbWii-&Ä'&&$
)&& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
1UINTAÈ'RANDE
/VERALLÈAVERAGEÈ n
2UIVOS
/VERALLÈAVERAGEÈ n
#ARRETA
/VERALLÈAVERAGEÈ
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS )&'
&IGÈÈ)NDIVIDUALÈERRORÈ
DISTRIBUTIONÈOFÈMEASUREDÈ
ANDÈESTIMATEDÈTHICKNESSES
J^[h[ikbjib[Zjej^[Z[Y_i_ede\deh[YWb_XhWj_ede\j^[YehaZhom[_]^jceZ#
[biZk[je_ji]eeZf[h\ehcWdY[_dj^[[lWbkWj_ed%YWb_XhWj_edfbeji$
)&( #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
È
2ECALIBRATEDÈ-ODELÈ0ARAMETERSÈANDÈ3TATISTICS
?jmWiZ[Y_Z[Zjeh[YWb_XhWj[j^[Yeha]hemj^ceZ[bi_d9EHA<?JIki_d]Wbb
j^[ZWjW\hecWbbf[hcWd[djfbeji_dj^[ZWjWi[j$D[mYeha]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ
cehjWb_joceZ[bijWj_ij_YiWh[fh[i[dj[ZX[bem$
&IGÈÈ-EANÈMEASUREDÈ
CORKÈDRYÈWEIGHTÈCWD?MÈKG È
ANDÈMEANÈESTIMATEDÈCORKÈDRYÈ
WEIGHTÈCWD?GÈCM ÈANDÈTHEÈ
ÈCIÈFORÈEACHÈMEANÈFORÈEACHÈ
POSÈCLASSÈCM È!BOVEÈ1UIN
TAÈ'RANDEÈPLOTÈMIDDLEÈ2UIVOSÈ
PLOTÈBELOWÈ#ARRETAÈPLOT
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS )&)
È
0OTENTIALÈ#ORKÈ'ROWTHÈFORÈTHEÈ
9EARÈ0ERIODÈCGPOTÈM
<ehfej[dj_WbYeha]hemj^ceZ[bb_d]"_jmWiki[Zj^[/+j^f[hY[dj_b[lWbk[i_d
[WY^e\j^[(&YbWii[ie\Y]/m[h[ki[Z$J^[fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[iWh[Z[f[dZ[dj
edj^[ie_b]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWa$J^[d[mceZ[bijWj_ij_YiWh[0ceZ[b
'"ie_bm_j^de]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWa1WdZceZ[b("ie_bm_j^de]hemj^
b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWa0
CeZ[b'0
&$'(*/' &$/*/*&& '$,'.)& ]ei
'$,'.)&
Y]/fej3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ" '$,'.)&(
H(WZ`&$/+,''"HCI&$&&&&'(..
] ei &$/*/*&&!] ei
CeZ[b(0
&$&,/)' &$,')*, '$+,(.' ]ei
'$+,(.'
Y]/fej3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ" '$+,(.'(
H(WZ`&$/)('*"HCI&$&&&&(&*.
] &$,')*,!]
ei ei
-ODIFIERÈM
J^[d[mceZ[bijWj_ij_YiWh[0ceZ[b)"ie_bm_j^de]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYeha
eWa1WdZceZ[b*"ie_bm_j^de]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWa0
È
0OTENTIALÈ#ROWNÈ(ORIZONTALÈ0ROJECTIONÈ!REAÈ)NCREMENTÈFORÈTHEÈ
9EARÈ0ERIODÈICAPOTÈM
<ehfej[dj_WbYhemd^eh_pedjWbfhe`[Yj_edWh[W_dYh[c[djceZ[bb_d]\ehj^[+#
o[Whf[h_eZ"j^[/+j^f[hY[dj_b[lWbk[i_d[WY^e\j^[(&YbWii[ie\_YWm[h[ki[Z$
J^[fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[i"WiX[\eh["Z[f[dZedj^[ie_b]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYeha
eWa$ J^[ d[m ceZ[b ijWj_ij_Yi Wh[0 ceZ[b +" ie_b m_j^ de ]hemj^ b_c_jWj_edi \eh
YehaeWa1WdZceZ[b,"ie_bm_j^de]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWa0
CeZ[b+0
'+$/./+* &$'.&++ '$.,))' ]ei
'$.,))'
_YW+fej3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ" '$.,))'(
H(WZ`&$.*/)/"HCI')$*(,.*
] &$'.&++!]
ei ei
CeZ[b,0
/$*'/-' &$&.*,/ '$-/'). ]ei
'$-/').
_YW/fej3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ" H(WZ`&$-',*'"HCI'+$)/+*(
]ei &$&.*,/!]'$-/').
ei (
)&* #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
4ABLEÈÈ-EANÈMEASUREDÈCORKÈDRYÈWEIGHTÈANDÈCONFIDENCEÈINTERVALÈFORÈMEASUREDÈCWDMÈÈ
CIMÈKG ÈANDÈESTIMATEDÈCWDMÈÈCIGÈKG ÈPERÈPOSÈCLASS
1UINTAÈ'RANDE
/VERALLÈAVERAGEÈ n
2UIVOS
/VERALLÈAVERAGEÈ n
#ARRETA
/VERALLÈAVERAGEÈ n
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS )&+
-ODIFIERÈM
J^[d[mceZ[bijWj_ij_YiWh[0ceZ[b-"ie_bm_j^de]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYeha
eWa1WdZceZ[b."ie_bm_j^de]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWa0
[
Y_
CeZ[b-0c3[Ä&$*'&., "H(WZ`&$*+.,-"HCI'/$'&/((
Y_
CeZ[b.0c3[Ä&$)(+-* "H(WZ`&$*&+*&"HCI(&$,*&)&
È
-ORTALITYÈ-ODEL
J^[be]_ij_YcehjWb_joceZ[bmWi\_jj[Zm_j^j^[cWn_ckcb_a[b_^eeZc[j^eZ
ki_d]IFIIl[hi_ed'($&$J^[lWh_WXb[im[h[i[b[Yj[Zm_j^j^[\ehmWhZMWbZc[j^#
eZ$J^[WdWboi_ie\cWn_ckcb_a[b_^eeZ[ij_cWj[i_ifh[i[dj[Z_dJWXb['*$/$
J^[h[ikbjifh[i[dj[Z_dj^[jWXb[_dZ_YWj[j^WjcehjWb_jo_i_dZ[f[dZ[dje\jh[[
Z_c[di_ed]eiWdZj^Wj_iZ[f[dZ[djed_dj[di_joe\Z[XWha_ZWdZYehaYk#
ckbWj_l[]hemj^Y]/$J^_i\WYj_dZ_YWj[ij^Wjj^[jh[[iWh[W\\[Yj[ZXoj^[Z[XWha
fh[iikh[WdZj^WjX[\eh[Zo_d]j^[o[nf[h_[dY[Wh[ZkYj_ed_dYeha]hemj^m^_Y^
_dZ_YWj[ij^[Z[YWoijWjki$
J^[fheXWX_b_joe\ikhl_lWbe\Wjh[[_dW+#o[Whf[h_eZ_i]_l[dXoceZ[b/0
[Ä'(,$.-'Y]/!&$&*+_Z!(*$*,&]ei
CeZ[b/0Pn3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ'(,$.-'Y] ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
'![ /!&$&*+_Z!(*$*,&]ei
m_j^WYkj#e\\fe_dje\&$-+$
4ABLEÈÈ!NALYSISÈOFÈMAXIMUMÈLIKELIHOODÈESTIMATESÈFORÈTHEÈSELECTEDÈTREEÈSURVIVALÈPROBABIL
ITYÈMODEL
!NALYSISÈOFÈMAXIMUMÈ
LIKELIHOODÈESTIMATES
È
)NDIVIDUALÈ#ORKÈ/AKÈ-ODELÈFORÈ#ROWNÈ)DENTIFICATIONÈ
ANDÈ$ELINEATIONÈINÈ.)2
7d[mikX#ceZkb[mWiZ[l[bef[ZWbbem_d]j^[ki[e\W[h_Wb_cW][hoWiWdWb#
j[hdWj_l[ iekhY[ e\ _dfkj ZWjW \eh i_ckbWj_ed fkhfei[i$ J^_i c[j^eZ Wbbemi j^[
ki[ e\ Z_]_jWb_p[Z D?H W[h_Wb f^ejei WdZ fheZkY[i _d\ehcWj_ed WXekj _dZ_l_Zk#
Wbjh[[iYhemdi_p["ij[cfei_j_ed"[jY$d[Y[iiWho\ehi_ckbWj_edijWhj$J^[Wb]e#
h_j^cYedi_ijie\i[l[hWbij[fi$
<_hij"Wi[je\\_bj[himeha_d]m_j^if[YjhW_d\ehcWj_eded_dZ_l_ZkWbf_n[bi_i
Wffb_[Z"m^[h[l[][jWj_ed_iZ[\_d[ZWdZZ_ij_d]k_i^[Z\hecj^[XWYa]hekdZ$I[Y#
edZ"j^[l[][jWj_edfWhj_iiceej^[Zm_j^W=Wkii_Wd\_bj[he\Wffhefh_Wj[Za[h#
d[b"WdZWdWb]eh_j^cbeea_d]\ehj^[jh[[jefiYecX_d[Zm_j^WlWbb[o\ebbem_d]
WffheWY^_iWffb_[ZjeZ[b_d[Wj[j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[Yhemdi$7i[je\\kdYj_edi\eh
YWbYkbWj_ede\jh[[Z_c[di_ediZ[h_l[Z\hecYhemdi_p[mWi[lWbkWj[Z"iej^Wjj^[
h[ije\j^[_d_j_WbZWjW\ehj^[i_ckbWj_edYWdX[eXjW_d[Z$
7i <_]$'*$, i^emi" j^[ _d_j_Wb _cW][ if[YjhW _i i_cfb_\_[Z _d ehZ[h je eXjW_d
W]h[ob[l[b_cW][$:k[jej^[Yedij_jkj_ede\j^[\_bj[hi"j^[]hWZ[ie\]h[oYeb#
ekh Yehh[ifedZ je j^[ fheXWX_b_jo e\ W f_n[b X[_d] l[][jWj_ed eh dej$ ?d ej^[h
mehZi" j^[ ]h[o[h j^[ f_n[b" j^[ ]h[Wj[h j^[ fheXWX_b_jo e\ j^[ [n_ij[dY[ e\ l[]#
[jWj_ed$ J^[h[ Wh[ i[l[hWb efj_edi h[]WhZ_d] ^em j^_i _cW][ YWd X[ Z_l_Z[Z _d#
jejme]hekfil[][jWj_edWdZXWYa]hekdZ$J^[ceijYeccedWdZ[Wiojeki[
_ij^h[i^ebZ_d]m_j^j^[^_ije]hWce\j^[f_Yjkh[$J^[c[j^eZZ[l[bef[Z_dj^_i
mehaki[ij^[]h[ob[l[b^_ije]hWce\j^[f_Yjkh[WdZYbWii_\_YWj_ede\j^[l[][jW#
j_ed%XWYa]hekdZ_icWZ[m_j^j^[beYWj_ede\j^[lWbb[ofe_djj^WjZ_l_Z[ij^[]h[o
b[l[biYehh[ifedZ_d]jej^[h[\[hh[Z]hekfi$J^[Wb]eh_j^cYWdef[hWj[0'_d\kbb
WkjecWj_YceZ["m^[h[j^[j^h[i^ebZ_d]_if[h\ehc[Zm_j^ekj^kcWd_dj[hl[d#
j_ed"WdZ(_di[c_#WkjecWj_YceZ["m^[h[j^[ki[h^Wijel_ikWbbobeYWj[j^[
lWbb[ofe_dj_dj^[Z_ifbWo[Z]h[ob[l[bf_Yjkh[^_ije]hWcIkhel[jWb$(&&*X$
7\j[h_cW][Z_l_i_ed_djel[][jWj_ed%XWYa]hekdZ]hekfi"Z[b_d[Wj_ede\j^[_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[Yhemdi_dlebl[ijmeij[fi<_]$'*$-0'beYWj_ede\j^[ZWha[ijf_n#
[bj^[jh[[jef"j^[ceij_bbkc_dWj[Zfe_dj_dj^[YhemdWdZij[cfbWY[c[dji[j
m_j^_jiYeehZ_dWj[i1WdZ(beea_d]\ehYhemd[Z][i"m^_Y^Wh[h[fh[i[dj[ZWi
&IGÈÈ&ROMÈLEFTÈTOÈRIGHTÈ!PPLICATIONÈOFÈSIMPLIFICATIONÈFILTERSÈTOÈPROVIDEÈAÈFREQUENCYÈMAP
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS )&-
f_n[bi_dj^[Z_h[Yj_ede\j^[YhemdY[djh["j^[\ebbem_d]d[_]^Xekhf_n[behXWYa#
]hekdZ"ehf_n[bim_j^_dYh[Wi_d]]h[ob[l[bWdej^[hYhemd$
:k[jejeeZ[jW_b[ZiYWdd_d]"j^_ii_cfb[Wb]eh_j^cWffheWY^cWodejX[l[ho
WYYkhWj[$ J^[h[\eh[" iceej^_d] Xo ief^_ij_YWj[Z =Wkii_Wd a[hd[b \_bj[h fheZkY#
[iWX[jj[h_dfkj_cW][<_]$'*$-$J^_ifheY[Zkh[_i][d[hWbboh[fbWY_d]j^[^k#
cWd[o[i_cfb_\_YWj_ede\jeeZ[jW_b[ZWiYWd_djeÆXbeXiÇYehh[ifedZ_d]jej^[
jh[[Yhemd$
7\j[hj^[fh_cWhoia[jY^[iWh[Z[\_d[Z"i[l[hWb\_bj[h_d]Wb]eh_j^ci^Wl[jeX[
Wffb_[Zje[b_c_dWj[j^[Yhemdi_di_Z[ej^[hYhemdi"m^_Y^Wff[WhX[YWki[e\j^[
f^ejede_i[<_]$'*$.$J^[\ebbem_d]lWh_WXb[iWh[eXjW_d[ZZ_h[YjboXoj^_iWb]e#
h_j^c0ij[cfei_j_ed"Yhemdi_p[WdZYhemdi^Wf[$J^[h[ije\j^[lWh_WXb[iWh[
][d[hWj[ZXoh[l[hi_d]\ehckbWim^_Y^Z[iYh_X[j^[Yehh[bWj_edX[jm[[dj^[ij[c
WdZYhemd"[jY$
JmelWh_[j_[ie\ioij[cm[h[Z[l[bef[Z0\kbboWdZi[c_#WkjecWj_Yed[i$J^[
dkcX[he\jh[[ic[Wikh[Zm_j^j^[\kbboWkjecWj_Yioij[c^WZWdWl[hW][[hhehe\
)-$,¦(($+"m^_b[j^[i[c_#WkjecWj_Yioij[c^WZWdWl[hW][[hhehe\'/$'¦(&$.$
I_ckbWj_ediXWi[Zedf^ejeZWjWZ_\\[hd[]Wj_l[bo\hecj^[i_ckbWj_ediXWi[Z
edh[WbZWjW[if[Y_Wbbo_dbWj[ho[Whi*&Ä'&&"ceijboX[YWki[e\j^[h[][d[hWj_ed
jh[[idejX[_d]l_i_Xb[_dj^[f^ejeiIkhel[jWb$(&&*X$
&IGÈÈ5SEÈOFÈ'AUSSIANÈKERNELÈFILTERÈTOÈELIMINATEÈTHEÈNOISEÈOFÈTOOÈDETAILEDÈAÈSCAN
&IGÈÈ #UTTINGÈ ALGORITHMÈ STARTINGÈ INÈ THEÈ DARKESTÈ CROWNÈ PARTSÈ ANDÈ LOOKINGÈ FORÈ VEGETATIONÈ
EDGESÈORÈhVALLEYSv
)&. #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
È
3OFTWAREÈ$EVELOPMENTSÈANDÈAÈ3IMULATIONÈ3TUDYÈ%XAMPLE
?dehZ[hjecWa[j^[ceZ[bikiWXb[Wjj^[[dj[hfh_i[b[l[bXoj^[[dZki[hi"_j
mWiZ[Y_Z[ZjeZ[l[befWie\jmWh[_dj[h\WY[mmm$Yeha\_ji$d[j$J^[ie\jmWh[Wb#
bemiki[hije0'_dfkjZWjWZ[iYh_X_d]j^[_hijWdZi_dZ_\\[h[djfh[Y_i_edb[l[bi"
(fheY[iij^[chkdj^[i_ckbWj_ed")l_[mfhe]dei[i"WdZ*j[ijZ_\\[h[dj
cWdW][c[djiY[dWh_eiWdZZ_\\[h[dj[Yedec_Y[lebkj_edi$
J^[Z[l[befc[djim[h[cWZ[0'_dj^[ZWjWcWdW][c[djkd_j_dj^[ZWjW_d#
fkjWb]eh_j^ci"(_dj^[i_ckbWj_edefj_edi"WdZ)_dj^[ekjfkjkd_ji$
È
$EVELOPMENTSÈINÈTHEÈ$ATAÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ5NIT
J^h[[XWi_Yb[l[bie\_dfkjZWjWWh[feii_Xb[_d9EHA<?JI($'0'XWi_Y_d\eh#
cWj_edWXekjj^[ijWdZ"m^[h[j^[ki[h_iWia[Zje_djheZkY[edboXWi_Y_d\ehcW#
j_edjh[[dkcX[hf[h^[YjWh[WdZf[hY[djW][Z_ijh_Xkj_ed_dm_Zj^YbWii[i1(
c[Z_kcfh[Y_i_ed_d\ehcWj_ed"m^[h[j^[ki[hYWdXej^Z_]_jWb_p[ZWjWWdZef[d
Wj[nj\_b[YedjW_d_d]jh[[b_ijZWjWm_j^ekj_dZ_l_ZkWbYeehZ_dWj[i[$]$DWj_edWb?d#
l[djehofbeji1WdZ)^_]^fh[Y_i_ed_dfkjZWjW"m^[h[j^[ki[hYWdXej^Z_]_jWb#
_p[ZWjWWdZef[dWj[nj\_b[YedjW_d_d]jh[[b_ijZWjWm_j^_dZ_l_ZkWbYeehZ_dWj[i
[$]$ f[hcWd[dj h[i[WhY^ fbeji$ J^[ jh[[ Z_c[di_edi ][d[hWjeh Wb]eh_j^c WdZ
IJHK=;DWh[WYj_lWj[ZWjb[l[bi'WdZ(je][d[hWj[c_ii_d]ZWjW"j^kiYh[Wj#
_d]j^[\_b[m_j^j^[_d_j_Wbd[Y[iiWho_d\ehcWj_edjeijWhjj^[i_ckbWjeh$9ecX_#
dWj_ede\j^[i[j^h[[b[l[biYWdX[ki[Z_dj^[=?I_dj[h\WY[m^[h[_j_ifeii_Xb[je
meham_j^bWh][hWh[W_d\ehcWj_edijhkYjkh[Z_d_d\ehcWj_edioij[c$
È
$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈ3IMULATIONÈ/PTIONS
I_ckbWj_ed YWd X[ fheY[ii[Z _d i[l[hWb mWoi0 ' jme#i_j[ gkWb_jo i[b[Yj_ed
ie_bim_j^ehm_j^ekj]hemj^b_c_jWj_edi\ehYehaeWaWYYehZ_d]jej^[Fehjk]k[i[
ie_bY^Whjjof[i1(i[b[Yj_edXoj^[ki[he\j^[dkcX[he\h[f[j_j_edie\ed[i_c#
kbWj_edje][d[hWj[Yed\_Z[dY[_dj[hlWbi\ehj^[[ij_cWj[i\ehWbb]hemj^ceZ[biW
hWdZec[hhehYecfed[dj_iWZZ[Z1)feii_X_b_jo"W\j[hj^[i_ckbWj_ed"jeÆmWbaÇ
XWYa_d_dZ_l_ZkWbo[WhiWdZZ_ifbWoj^[ijWdZijWjkiehjhoZ_\\[h[djcWdW][c[dj
efj_edi[$]$dWjkhWbehWhj_\_Y_Wbh[][d[hWj_ed1WdZ*i[b[Yj_ede\j^[cWdW][#
c[djefj_ediWjWdocec[dje\j^[i_ckbWj_ed"m_j^j^[feii_X_b_jojeiWl[fh[l_#
ekicWdW][c[djh[ikbji$
Ej^[hi_ckbWj_edefj_ediYWdX[i[jX[\eh[ehZkh_d]j^[i_ckbWj_ed"\eh[nWc#
fb[0'YWjjb[ikXi_Zo_dYec[\ehed[kd_j"Wh[Wki[ZXokd_j"_dYec[f[h^[YjWh[1
(Yeha_dYec[f[h^Whl[ijkd_je\WhheXW"j_c[Äfh_Y[Z[l[befc[dje\_dYec[
f[hkd_j"bWXekhfheZkYj_l_jo_dj[hcie\ij[ci"e\jh[[im_j^XhWdY^[ie\\_hijWdZ
i[YedZb[l[b"Yeije\bWXekh"YeijZ[l[befc[djf[hkd_je\bWXekh1)ie_bceX_b_#
pWj_edjof[e\ie_bceX_b_pWj_edki[ZZkh_d]j^[i_ckbWj_ed"Yeijif[h^ekhWdZ
È !NALYSESÈ2ESULTSÈANDÈ3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONS )&/
jof["fheZkYj_l_jof[h^ekh"_dj[di_joe\_dj[hl[dj_ed_dj^[/#je'&#o[Whf[h_eZ1
WdZ*fbWdjWj_edYeijijof[e\fbWdjWj_ed0d[m"WZZ_j_edWb1Yeije\bWXekh"fhe#
ZkYj_l_jo"fh_Y[e\j^[fbWdji$
È
$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈ/UTPUTÈ/PTIONS
EkjfkjiWh[iWl[Z_dZWjWXWi[\ehcWj"WdZWbblWbk[iYWdX[WYY[ii[Zj^hek]^
j^[ie\jmWh[[dl_hedc[dj$7if[Y_Wbgk[hojeeb_iXk_bj#_dWdZYWdX[ki[Zje[n#
jhWYjedboZ[i_h[ZY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$7b_ije\ZWjWYWdj^[dX[[nfehj[Zjeej^[h\eh#
cWji $jnj" $nbi \eh \khj^[h ijkZ_[i$ 9^Whj WdZ ]hWf^_Y ekjfkji m[h[ Z[l[bef[Z
\ehcWdW][c[djj[iji"Wi\ebbemi0'YhemdYel[hY^Whj"(YehaWcekdjY^Whj"
) Yeha j^_Yad[ii Y^Whj" * ij[c j^_Yad[ii YbWii[i Z_ijh_Xkj_ed Y^Whj" + Yeha
gkWb_joY^Whj",[Yede#Y^Whj"_dYec[#Y^Whj"WdZ-Yeij#Y^WhjWdZfhe\_j#Y^Whj
mmm$Yeha\_ji$d[j$ 7bb j^[ WXel[ ekjfkji Z_ifbWo Yehh[ifedZ_d] Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi
fheZkY[ZZkh_d]j^[i_ckbWj_ed$7bbj^[[Yedec_Yih[ikbjih[]WhZ_d]fhe\_jiWdZ
YeijiWh[Z_iYekdj[Zm_j^WZ_iYekdjhWj[m^_Y^YWdX[ceZ_\_[ZW\j[hj^[i_ck#
bWj_edhkd$
&IGÈÈ 0ROFITÈ DEVELOPMENTÈ CHARTÈ %52 È 3OLIDÈ LINESÈ 0ROFITÈ EVOLUTIONÈ WITHOUTÈ DISCOUNTÈ RATEÈ
DASHEDÈLINESÈACTUALÈVALUEÈOFÈPROFITÈWITHÈDISCOUNTÈRATEÈOFÈÈREDÈLINEÈNOÈREGENERATIONÈBLUEÈLINEÈ
REGENERATIONÈWITHÈÈPLANTSÈHAn
)'& #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
&IGÈÈ%CONOMICÈDEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈSTANDÈ%52
7i_ckbWj_ed[nWcfb[e\j^[fhe\_jZ[l[befc[djZ_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[d_dYec[
WdZ Yeiji _i i^emd _d <_]$'*$/ WdZ i[hl[i Wi W ]k_Z[ \eh [Yedec_YWb ikijW_dW#
X_b_jocWdW][c[djZk[jej^[Z[cedijhWj_ede\j^[]eeZ[\\[Yjie\h[][d[hWj_ed
,&fbWdji^WÄ'Wji_ckbWj_edo[Wh+&edj^[fhe\_jb_d[iYecfWh[h[Zm_j^Xbk[
b_d[i$ <_]kh['*$'& i^emi j^[ _dYec[ WdZ Yeij ijhkYjkh[ _d '&#o[Wh _dj[hlWbi Wi
m[bbWij^[fhe\_jb_d[m_j^ekjj^[Z_iYekdjhWj[Wffb_[Z\ehj^[iWc[i_ckbWj_ed
[nWcfb["Z[cedijhWj_d]j^[X[d[\_jie\h[][d[hWj_edYecfWh[Zjej^[Yeijie\_ji
_cfb[c[djWj_ed"m_j^deZ_iYekdjhWj[$
J^[feii_X_b_joe\ki_d]j^[9EHA<?JI($'ioij[cWjWh[]_edWbb[l[b^WiX[[d
Z[l[bef[Zmmm$Yeha\_ji$d[j$J^[ZWjWijhkYjkh[Z_dW=?IYWdX[fheY[ii[Zm_j^
Wd_d#Xk_bjceZkb["m^_Y^Wbbemij^[ki[hje_djheZkY[=?IZWjW\ehbWh][hWh[Wi1
\eh[nWcfb["W=?IcWf\ehW\eh[ij[dj[hfh_i[m^[h[j^[i[ZWjWYWdX[fheY[ii[Z$
J^[ekjfkjie\j^_iYWbYkbWj_edWh[j^[cWj_YcWfi_dYbkZ_d]0WZ[di_jocWf"Yhemd
Yel[hcWf"fheZkYj_edcWf"YehagkWb_jocWf"[jY$<_]$'*$''$
J^[ i_ckbWj_ed hkd YWd X[ [n[Ykj[Z m_j^ekj Wdo cWdW][c[dj _dj[hhkfj_ed"
ehj^[h[_iWfeii_X_b_jo\eh_dj[hWYj_l[h[][d[hWj_edcWdW][c[dj$J^[ekjfkjZWjW
YWdWbieX[iWl[ZWdZ[nfehj[Zjeej^[hZWjW\ehcWjij[nj";nY[b$
È #ONCLUSION )''
&IGÈÈ')3ÈINTERFACE
È
#ONCLUSION
J^[ [lWbkWj_ed fheY[ii e\ j^[ 9EHA<?JI ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh i^emi j^Wj j^[
Yeha Zho m[_]^j ceZ[b mWi X[^Wl_d] m[bb ekji_Z[ j^[ hWd][ e\ YWb_XhWj_ed ZWjW
\eh Yeha m[_]^j [ij_cWj_ed$ J^[ Yeha ]hemj^ ceZ[b fh[i[dj[Z iec[ Z[l_Wj_edi
_dbWh][feijh[[YbWii[i_d9Whh[jWWdZHk_lei$?dGk_djW=hWdZ[j^[Y^WhWYj[h_i#
j_Yie\j^_ii_j[Wh[h[ifedi_Xb[\ehj^[eXi[hl[ZZ[l_Wj_edcW_dboZk[jej^[fh[i#
[dY[e\WmWj[hjWXb[YecX_d[Zm_j^WZ[[fie_bm^_Y^Yecf[diWj[ij^[[\\[Yjie\
j^[eXi[hl[ZYecf[j_j_ed$J^[h[ikbjib[Zjej^[h[YWb_XhWj_ede\j^[Yeha]hemj^
\kdYj_edi_dehZ[hjeX[WXb[jei_ckbWj[]hemj^Wjh[]_edWbb[l[b$
7iWdWbj[hdWj_l[iekhY[e\ZWjW"W[h_Wb_cW][homWifhefei[ZWdZj[ij[Z$I_c#
kbWj_edXWi[ZedW[h_Wb_cW][hoi^ekbZX[ki[Zedbo\ehi^ehj[hj_c[fh[Z_Yj_ed
X[YWki[ e\ j^[ bWYa e\ icWbb jh[[i WdZ h[][d[hWj_ed" kikWbbo _dl_i_Xb[ _d f^ejei$
J^_iZhWmXWYaYekbZX[[b_c_dWj[ZXoWZZ_j_edWb\_[bZc[Wikh[c[djehXoh[]k#
bWhh[cej[i[di_d][l[ho'&o[Whi$
J^[9EHA<?JI]hemj^i_ckbWjehmWiYedi_Z[h[ZXoYecfWdoh[fh[i[djWj_l[i
Wiki[\kbWdZWfhWYj_YWbjeebm^_Y^[dWXb[ij^[WYgk_i_j_ede\h[b_WXb[h[ikbji\eh
fbWdd_d]WdZZ[Y_i_edcWa_d]fheY[ii[i$
)'( #(!04%2È CeZ[b_d]9ehaEWaFheZkYj_ed_dFehjk]Wb
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ4HISÈSTUDYÈWASÈFUNDEDÈBYÈTHEÈ%5ÈPROJECTÈ)4-È)MPLEMENTINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ
-ODELSÈASÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ4OOLÈnÈHTTPWWWBOKUACATITM ÈUNDERÈPROJECTÈNUMBERÈ1,24È
È7EÈWOULDÈLIKEÈTOÈTHANKÈ0ROFÈ$RÈ(ANSÈ0RETZSCHÈFORÈSCIENTIFICÈANDÈTECHNICALÈSUPPORTÈ
INÈTHEÈCONSTRUCTIONÈANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈ#/2+&)43ÈÈSIMULATORÈ7EÈALSOÈTHANKÈ0ROFÈ$RÈ
(UBERTÈ(ASENAUERÈFORÈLEADINGÈANDÈMANAGINGÈTHEÈPROJECTÈ)4-ÈASÈWELLÈASÈFORÈSCIENTIFICÈASSISTANCEÈ
ANDÈSUPPORTIVEÈREVIEWÈCOMMENTSÈ7EÈAREÈGRATEFULÈTOÈ0ROFÈ$RÈ,UBOMÓRÈ3CHEERÈ$RÈHABILÈ*ÉNÈ
$URSKâÈANDÈ$RÈ-AREKÈ&ABRIKAÈFORÈALLÈTHEIRÈSUPPORTÈANDÈCOLLABORATIONÈINÈTHEÈDEVELOPMENTÈOFÈ)4-È
TASKSÈ7EÈWOULDÈALSOÈLIKEÈTOÈTHANKÈ$RÈ#LÉUDIAÈ0ORTELAÈFORÈTHEÈ%NGLISHÈREVISION
2EFERENCES
!NDREASENÈ#È2UDEMOÈ-È3EVESTREÈ3È È!SSESSMENTÈOFÈWEEDÈDENSITYÈATÈANÈEARLYÈSTAGEÈBYÈ
USEÈOFÈIMAGEÈSEGMENTATIONÈ7EEDÈ2ESÈn
"ARTELINKÈ((È È3IMULATIONÈOFÈGROWTHÈANDÈCOMPETITIONÈINÈMIXEDÈSTANDSÈOFÈ$OUGLAS
FIRÈANDÈ
BEECHÈ 0H$È ,ANDBOUWUNIVERSITEITÈ 7AGENINGENÈ 7AGENINGENÈ !GRICULTURALÈ 5NIVERSITY È
7AGENINGEN
"IGINGÈ'3È$OBBERTINÈ-È È!ÈCOMPARISONÈOFÈDISTANCE
DEPENDENTÈCOMPETITIONÈMEASURESÈFORÈ
HEIGHTÈANDÈBASALÈAREAÈGROWTHÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈCONIFERÈTREESÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
$ANIELSÈ2&È È3IMPLEÈCOMPETITIONÈINDICESÈANDÈTHEIRÈCORRELATIONÈWITHÈANNUALÈLOBLOLLYÈPINEÈ
TREEÈGROWTHÈ&ORÈ3CIÈn
$'&È È)NVENTÉRIOÈFLORESTALÈNACIONALÈ0ORTUGALÈ#ONTINENTALÈAÈ2EVISÎOÈnÈ2ELATØRIOÈ
&INALÈ$IREC¥ÎOÈ'ERALÈDASÈ&LORESTASÈ,ISBOA
$URSKYÈ *È È -ODELLINGÈ MORTALITYÈ INÈ MIXEDÈ .ORWAYÈ SPRUCEBEECHÈ STANDSÈ !LLGÈ &ORSTÈ *AGDZÈ
n
'ROTEÈ2È%RHARDÈ-È È3IMULATIONÈOFÈTREEÈANDÈSTANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈUNDERÈDIFFERENTÈENVIRON
MENTALÈCONDITIONSÈWITHÈAÈPHYSIOLOGICALLYÈBASEDÈMODELÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
(OLMESÈ-*È2EEDÈ$$È È#OMPETITIONÈINDICESÈFORÈMIXEDÈSPECIESÈOFÈNORTHERNÈHARDWOODSÈ&ORÈ
3CIÈn
*ONESÈ 0.È #ARBERRYÈ 03È È !È TECHNIQUEÈ TOÈ DEVELOPÈ ANDÈ VALIDATEÈ SIMULATIONÈ MODELSÈ !GRICÈ
3YSTÈn
+IMMINSÈ*0È È3CIENTIFICÈFOUNDATIONSÈFORÈTHEÈSIMULATIONÈOFÈECOSYSTEMÈFUNCTIONÈANDÈMANAGE
MENTÈINÈ&/2#94%
È2EPÈ./2
8
È#ANADIANÈ&ORESTRYÈ3ERVICEÈ%DMONTONÈ!LBERTA
,ANGDALEÈ'7È3CHRADERÈ7$È È3OILÈEROSIONÈEFFECTSÈONÈSOILÈPRODUCTIVITYÈOFÈCULTIVATEDÈCROP
LANDÈ$ETERMINANTSÈOFÈSOILÈLOSSÈTOLERANCEÈ3PECIALÈ0UBLÈÈ!MERICANÈ3OCIETYÈOFÈ!GRONOMYÈ
-ADISONÈ7ISCONSIN
/HTAÈ 9È +ANADEÈ 4È 3AKAIÈ 4È È #OLORÈ INFORMATIONÈ FORÈ REGIONÈ SEGMENTATIONÈ #OMPUTÈ 'RAPHÈ
)MAGEÈ0ROCÈn
0HILLIPSÈ)È2ATHÈ4È È)MPROVINGÈPLANTÈDISCRIMINATIONÈINÈIMAGEÈPROCESSINGÈBYÈUSEÈOFÈDIFFERENTÈ
COLOURÈSPACEÈTRANSFORMATIONSÈ#OMPUTÈ%LECTRONÈ!GRICÈn
0RETZSCHÈ(È È+ONZEPTIONÈUNDÈ+ONSTRUKTIONÈVONÈ7UCHSMODELLENÈFàRÈREINÈUNDÈ-ISCHBESTËN
DEÈ,UDWIG
-AXIMILIANS
5NIVERSITËTÈ-àNCHENÈ-UNICH
0RETZSCHÈ(È È/NÈTHEÈEFFECTÈOFÈTHEÈSPATIALÈDISTRIBUTIONÈOFÈTREESÈONÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ
*AGDZÈn
0RETZSCHÈ(È È!NALYSISÈANDÈMODELINGÈOFÈSPATIALÈSTANDÈSTRUCTURESÈ-ETHODOLOGICALÈCONSIDERA
TIONSÈBASEDÈONÈMIXEDÈBEECHnLARCHÈSTANDSÈINÈ,OWERÈ3AXONYÈ&ORÈ%COLÈ-ANAGEÈn
2EFERENCES )')
)MPLEMENTINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODELSÈÈ
INÈ3LOVAKIA
CWh[a<WXh_aW'"@|dàkhia(
È
)NTRODUCTION
?d h[Y[dj Z[YWZ[i" IbelWa_Wd \eh[ijho feb_Yo cWa[hi ^Wl[ [nf[dZ[Z i_]d_\_#
YWdj[\\ehj_dYedl[hj_d][l[d#W][Z"i_d]b[if[Y_[iijWdZi_djec_n[Z"kd[l[d#W][Z
ijWdZiWdZ_dYedi[hl_d]dWjkhWb\eh[iji$J^_i[\\ehj^WiX[[dYecfb_YWj[ZXo]be#
XWbWdZbeYWbYb_cWj_YY^Wd][ij^WjWh[jhWdi\ehc_d]j^[[Yedec_Y[dl_hedc[dj$
J^[i[\WYjehi^Wl[b[ZjeWd_dYh[Wi[Zd[[Z\ehYWfWXb[cWdW][h_Wbjeebi"_dYbkZ#
_d]]hemj^ceZ[bi$
?d j^[ fWij" o_[bZ jWXb[i m[h[ Wd _cfehjWdj jeeb \eh \eh[ij ]hemj^ ceZ[b_d]
_dIbelWa_W>WbW`[jWb$'/.-$>em[l[h"j^[i[jWXb[iWh[bei_d]j^[_hh[b[lWdY[Wi
' [#cW_b0 \WXh_aW6libZ$jkple$ia :[fWhjc[dj e\ <eh[ij CWdW][c[dj WdZ =[eZ[io" <WYkbjo e\
<eh[ijho"J[Y^d_YWbKd_l[hi_jo_dPleb[d"J$=$CWiWhoaW(*"/,&+)Pleb[d"IbelWaH[fkXb_Y
( :[fWhjc[dj e\ <eh[ijho" C_d_ijho e\ 7]h_Ykbjkh[" :eXhel_elW '(" .'( ,, 8hWj_ibWlW" IbelWa
H[fkXb_Y
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
)', #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
c_n[Zkd[l[d#W][ZijWdZiX[Yec[ceh[_cfehjWdj$JWXb[iZedejWbbem\eh[Ye#
be]_YWbi_j[YbWii_\_YWj_ede\j^[i[ijWdZi"X[YWki[i_j[YbWii_\_YWj_ed_iXWi[Zedbo
edZec_dWdj^[_]^jWdZW][$7i_d]b[W][_idejWc[Wd_d]\kblWh_WXb[_dkd[l[d#
W][ZijWdZi$7dej^[hZ_iWZlWdjW][e\o_[bZjWXb[i_ij^[_hfeehWX_b_jojefh[Z_Yj
j^[h[WYj_edjeZ_\\[h[djjh[Wjc[dji1o_[bZjWXb[iWh[YedijhkYj[Z\ehed[jh[Wjc[dj
e\ed[jh[[if[Y_[i$8[i_Z[ij^[i[Z_iWZlWdjW][i"j^[Ykhh[djjWXb[iZedejYedjW_d
ej^[h_cfehjWdjekjfkji"ikY^WiijWdZijhkYjkh[i"Yeiji"WdZh[l[dk[i$7bbj^[i[
\WYjehi^Wl[b[Zjej^[d[[Z\ehWd[m]hemj^ceZ[b$
?dWZZ_j_edjej^[Z[l[befc[dje\W]hemj^ceZ[b"j^[h[_iWbiej^[d[[Zje
Yedd[Yjj^[ceZ[bjeief^_ij_YWj[Z][e]hWf^_YWbboeh_[dj[Z_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci
WdZjeZ[l[befWc[j^eZebe]o\ehWffb_YWj_ede\Z[Y_i_edikffehjioij[ci_d\eh#
[ij cWdW][c[dj$ J^[i[ jWiai m[h[ Yecfb[j[Z m_j^_d W iY_[dj_\_Y fhe`[Yj e\ j^[
\_\j^\hWc[mehafhe]hWce\j^[;K$J^[cW_d]eWbim[h[0
v jeY^eei[Wjh[[]hemj^ceZ[b\heced[e\j^[fhe`[YjfWhjd[hi7kijh_W"=[h#
cWdo"<_dbWdZWdZYWb_XhWj[_jjeIbelWa_WdX_ebe]_YWbWdZ[Yedec_YYedZ_#
j_edi1
v jecWa[WYedd[Yj_edX[jm[[dj^[]hemj^ceZ[bWdZZWjW\hecj^[dWj_edWb
_dl[djehoWdZ][e]hWf^_Y_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci=?I1
v jeZ[l[befWc[j^eZebe]o\ehZ[Y_i_edikffehj"fbWdd_d]"WdZ\eh[ijcWdW][#
c[dj1WdZ
v jeX[]_dmehaedj^[Z[l[befc[dje\ekhemdceZ[b"m^_Y^mekbZX[\kbbo
WZWfj[ZjeIbelWa_Wd\eh[ijYedZ_j_ediWdZm^_Y^YekbZfej[dj_WbboX[_cfb[#
c[dj[Z_dj^[\_[bZe\\eh[ijho_dj^[Yec_d]o[Whi$
È
%XPERIMENTALÈ-ATERIALÈANDÈ$ATAÈ"ACKGROUND
Bed]#bWij_d]Yeef[hWj_edX[jm[[dj^[J[Y^d_YWbKd_l[hi_joe\Pleb[dWdZj^[
J[Y^d_YWbKd_l[hi_joe\Ckd_Y^b[ZjeI?BL7($(Fh[jpiY^(&&'X[_d]Y^ei[dWi
j^[XWi_Y]hemj^ceZ[b\ehYWb_XhWj_ed$J^[h[Wiedi\ehki_d]j^_iceZ[bm[h[j^[
i_c_bWh_j_[ie\j^[dWjkhWbYedZ_j_edi_d8WlWh_WWdZIbelWa_WWdZj^[\WYjj^WjIbe#
lWa_Wdh[i[WhY^[hijeeafWhj_dj^[Z[l[befc[dje\iec[fWhjie\j^[ceZ[bWdZ
_jiie\jmWh[Yecfed[djiZkh_d]ijWoiWjj^[9^W_h\eh<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY[_d<h[_i#
_d]$Ceh[el[h"j^[ijhkYjkh[e\j^[]hemj^ceZ[bc[[jij^[YedZ_j_edi\ehfkjj_d]
_j_djefhWYj_Y[_dIbelWa_Wd\eh[ijho$?dWZZ_j_edjeX[_d]j^[XWi_i\ehj^[YWb_XhWj#
[Zl[hi_ede\j^[ceZ[bI?BL7IA"j^[ceZ[b_d]fh_dY_fb[ie\I?BL7($(X[YWc[
j^[XWi_i\ehj^[d[m]hemj^ceZ[bI?8OB7$;nf[h_c[djWbcWj[h_WbiWdZXWYa#
]hekdZZWjWki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_edWdZZ[l[befc[djm[h[^[j[he][d[ekiWdZYed#
i_ij[Ze\j^[\ebbem_d]h[iekhY[i0
'$ O_[bZjWXb[i>WbW`[jWb$'/.-"cW_dbo^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h]hemj^Ykhl[iWj
j^[X[ijWdZmehijgkWb_joi_j[i"m[h[ki[ZjeZ[h_l[[Yebe]_YWbi_j[YbWii_\_YW#
j_edi$J^[i[m[h[_dYehfehWj[Z_dj^[I?8OB7ceZ[bWYYehZ_d]jej^[c[j^#
eZebe]oe\AW^d'//*WdZm[h[Wd_cfehjWdjiekhY[\ehZ[h_l_d]^[_]^jWdZ
Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dji$J^[o_[bZjWXb[iWh[XWi[ZedWm_Z[hWd][e\c[Wikh[#
c[djiWdZikffb[c[dj[nf[h_c[djWbZWjW$J^[o_[bZjWXb[iWh[XWi[ZedcW#
j[h_Wb \hec [nf[h_c[djWb fbeji j^Wj m[h[ [ijWXb_i^[Z _d '/,* Ä '/-) >WbW`
È %XPERIMENTALÈ-ATERIALÈANDÈ$ATAÈ"ACKGROUND )'-
WdZH[^|a'/-/$7ZZ_j_edWbZWjWYWc[\hecf[hcWd[djfbeji[ijWXb_i^[Z_d
j^[fWij\ehlWh_ekiiY_[dj_\_Yfkhfei[iFW h[p'/,+1Loiaej'/,,"'/,/1Aeh[#
d[a'/,-1Aehf[bÉ'/,."'/-&1[Xa'/,.1LWph'/,.1H^'/-(1IWXeb'/-+$
Ceije\j^[fbejim[h[_dj^[j^_hZeh\ekhj^YoYb[e\c[Wikh[c[dj$J^[jejWb
dkcX[he\c[Wikh[c[djimWi("'//\ehifhkY["*),\eh\_h"-(*\ehf_d["'"()/
\ehX[[Y^"WdZ-*,\eheWa$:[jW_b[ZZ[iYh_fj_edie\j^[fbejiWh[_dh[\[h[dY[Z
fkXb_YWj_edi$
($ J^[d[nj_cfehjWdjiekhY[\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[I?8OB7ceZ[bmWi_d#
l[djehoZWjWedj^[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^jijhkYjkh[ie\IbelWa_Wd\eh[iji>W#
bW`'/+-"'/-.$J^[i[ZWjWm[h[ki[ZjeZ[j[hc_d[h[bWj_edi^_fiX[jm[[dcWn#
_ckcijWdZ^[_]^jehcWn_ckcZ_Wc[j[hWdZZec_dWdjijWdZ^[_]^jeh
c[Wd Z_Wc[j[h _d ehZ[h je YedijhkYj W ceZ[b e\ [Yebe]_YWb i_j[ YbWii_\_YW#
j_edWim[bbWiW][d[hWjehe\Z_Wc[j[h\h[gk[dYo$J^[Z_Wc[j[h_dl[djehomWi
YWhh_[Zekjed-*&ijWdZie\ifhkY[")-&ijWdZie\\_h").&ijWdZie\f_d["*(&
ijWdZie\X[[Y^"WdZ)-&ijWdZie\eWa$J^[^[_]^jijhkYjkh[mWiXWi[Zed.+
f[hcWd[djfbejie\ifhkY["+-fbejie\\_h"++fbejie\eWa"WdZ-+fbejie\X[[Y^$
J^[XheWZhWd][e\[nf[h_c[djWbcWj[h_Wb_iik\\_Y_[dj\ehceZ[b_d]Z_Wc[j[h
WdZ^[_]^jijhkYjkh[iWdZmWiWl[holWbkWXb[iekhY[e\ZWjW\ehYedijhkYj_d]
fWhj_WbWb]eh_j^ci\ehj^[I?8OB7ceZ[b$
)$ >[_]^jYkhl[im_j^_dj^[ijhkYjkh[][d[hWjehe\j^[I?8OB7ceZ[bm[h[Yed#
ijhkYj[Zki_d]ceZ[bi_dj^[\ehce\[gkWj_edie\kd_\ehc^[_]^jYkhl[ij^Wj
m[h[fkXb_i^[ZXoc[bae[jWb$'/.-$J^[i[[gkWj_edim[h[Z[h_l[ZWikd_#
\_[Z^[_]^jYkhl[i"Z[iYh_X[ZXo>WbW`'/++"XWi[Zedh_Y^[cf_h_YWbcWj[h_#
WbYedi_ij_d]e\]hWf^_YWbY^Whjie\Y^ei[d\eh[ijijWdZi\hecWbb\eh[ij[Ye#h[#
]_edi_dIbelWa_W\hecWbbW]["^[_]^j"WdZi_j[b[l[bi1'").(ifhkY[ijWdZi",/(
\_hijWdZi"+'*f_d[ijWdZi"'"*-(X[[Y^ijWdZi"WdZ.-/eWaijWdZim[h[ki[Z$
*$ ?dehZ[hje[ij_cWj[j^[lebkc[e\jh[[im_j^I?BL7IAWdZI?8OB7"lebkc[
[gkWj_edim[h[ki[Z$J^[i[m[h[YedijhkYj[ZWdZfkXb_i^[ZXoF[jh|WdZFW#
`ja'//'$;cf_h_YWbcWj[h_Wbedj^[\ehce\Ykjjh[[imWiki[Z\ehYedijhkYj#
_d] lebkc[ h[bWj_edi^_fi m^_Y^ m[h[ XWi[Z ed ("''' ifhkY[ jh[[i" '"*-- \_h
jh[[i"'",+/f_d[jh[[i"'"..,X[[Y^jh[[i"WdZ'"./)eWajh[[i$
+$ JeYWbYkbWj[j^[^Whl[ij[Zlebkc["j^[I?BL7IAWdZI?8OB7ceZ[biki[jh[[
Wiiehjc[djjWXb[iF[jh|WdZDeY_Wh'//&"'//'$J^[i[Wh[XWi[Zed''"/*-
Ykj jh[[i \hec ',- [nf[h_c[djWb fbeji _d _cfehjWdj jh[[ if[Y_[i h[]_edi$ ?d#
YbkZ[Z_dj^_icWj[h_Wbm[h[*"(&)X[[Y^jh[[i")"&*(eWajh[[i"'".),f_d[jh[[i"
'"-&+ifhkY[jh[[i"WdZ'"','\_hjh[[i$
,$ ?dWZZ_j_edjej^[WXel[c[dj_ed[ZiekhY[i"ZWjW\hecW**acd[jmehae\
f[hcWd[djced_jeh_d]fbeji_dijWbb[ZXoB[iefhe`[ajPleb[d_d'//*WYYehZ#
_d]jec[j^eZebe]oXol[Y[jWb$'//)m[h[ki[Z$J^[i[ZWjWm[h[ki[Zje
Z[h_l[[gkWj_edi\ehZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dji\ehj^[I?BL7IAceZ#
[bWdZWh[i_ZkWb[b[c[dje\Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dji_dehZ[hjeceZ#
[bj^[X_ebe]_YWblWh_WX_b_joe\]hemj^fheY[ii[i_dj^[I?8OB7ceZ[b$J^[je#
jWbdkcX[he\f[hcWd[djced_jeh_d]fbejimWi'"'./"m_j^i_p[ie\(&&"+&&"eh
'"&&&c("Z[f[dZ_d]edijWdZZ[di_jo$J^[fbejih[fh[i[djWbbIbelWa_Wd\eh#
[ijWh[Wi<_]$'+$'$$H[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[djie\Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^je\jh[[i
m[h[f[h\ehc[Z\hec'//,Ä(&&("m_j^'%'&e\j^[IbelWa_WdWh[WX[_d]c[Wi#
kh[Z[l[hoo[Wh$>[dY["j^[c[Wikh[c[djf[h_eZim[h[\hec(Ä.o[Whi$?dje#
)'. #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
&IGÈÈ,OCALIZATIONÈOFÈPERMANENTÈMONITORINGÈPLOTSÈINÈ3LOVAKIAÈINÈÈKMÈNETWORKS
jWb"-")+.ifhkY[jh[[i"'"')-\_hjh[[i"'"'.'f_d[jh[[i"/"(')X[[Y^jh[[i"WdZ
)"***eWajh[[im[h[c[Wikh[Z$
È
-ETHODSÈANDÈ0RINCIPLESÈOFÈ-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈ
ANDÈ$EVELOPMENT
È
#ALIBRATIONÈOFÈ$IAMETERÈANDÈ(EIGHTÈ)NCREMENTÈ
INÈTHEÈ-ODELÈ3),6!È3+
7ic[dj_ed[Z_dj^[fh[l_ekii[Yj_ed"ZWjW\hecf[hcWd[djced_jeh_d]fbeji
m[h[ki[ZjeYWb_XhWj[ceZ[bie\^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj$
<eh[WY^fbej"i_ckbWj[ZijWdZi+&+&cm[h[][d[hWj[ZXo[nfWdZ_d]Y_hYk#
bWhfbeji$7jh[[b_ijmWiYedijhkYj[Z\eh[WY^i_ckbWj[ZijWdZ"m_j^c_ii_d]jh[[i
X[_d]][d[hWj[Z$KdademdY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yijh[[Ye#ehZ_dWj[i"YhemdfWhWc[j[hi
m[h[ YWbYkbWj[Z m_j^ j^[ ijhkYjkh[ ][d[hWjeh IJHK=;D Fh[jpiY^ '//)" (&&'$
=hemj^i_ckbWj_edmWiYWhh_[Zekj$?dj^[i_ckbWj_ed"Z[WZjh[[im[h[Yedi_Z[h[Z
je ^Wl[ X[[d ^Whl[ij[Z$ ?dij[WZ e\ ki_d] W j^_dd_d] ][d[hWjeh" i[b[Yj_ed e\ ^Wh#
l[ij[Zjh[[imWiXWi[Zedb_ijie\jh[[ij^Wj^WZWYjkWbboX[[dh[cel[Z$=hemj^
mWi i_ckbWj[Z \eh +# WdZ '&#o[Wh f[h_eZi$ J^[ fh[Z_Yj[Z WddkWb Z_Wc[j[h WdZ
^[_]^j_dYh[c[djim[h[YWbYkbWj[ZWdZiodY^hed_p[Zm_j^h[WbWddkWb_dYh[c[dji
\hecf[hcWd[djced_jeh_d]fbeji$B_d[Wh_dj[hfebWj_edmWiki[Z\ehiodY^hed_#
pWj_ed$CeZ[bb[Z_dYh[c[djiI?BL7WdZh[Wb_dYh[c[djic[Wikh[c[djim[h[
YecfWh[Z$ :_\\[h[dY[i X[jm[[d I?BL7 _dYh[c[dji WdZ h[Wb _dYh[c[dji _I?BL7 Ä
_H;7Bm[h[j[ij[Z\ehi_]d_\_YWdY[$?d][d[hWb"X_WimWiZ[j[Yj[Z\ehZ_Wc[j[hiWdZ
^[_]^ji1j^[h[\eh["h[]h[ii_ed\kdYj_ediX[jm[[dZ_\\[h[dY[i8?7IWdZI?BL7_d#
Yh[c[djim[h[Z[h_l[ZWi\ebbemi0
È -ETHODSÈANDÈ0RINCIPLESÈOFÈ-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENT )'/
8Z3W&!W'Õ_ZI?BL7
8^3W&!W'Õ_^I?BL7
J^[Ye[\\_Y_[djie\j^[\kdYj_ediW&"W'\ehifhkY["\_h"f_d["X[[Y^"WdZeWa
Wh[]_l[d_dJWXb['+$'$7iWcfb[Z[h_lWj_ede\Ye[\\_Y_[dji\ehX[[Y^_ii^emd_d
<_]$'+$($
7ZZ_j_edWbbo"Wd[ij_cWj[e\j^[hWd][e\hWdZec[hhehimWiZ[l[bef[Z$J^[
c[j^eZki[Z_iWi\ebbemi0
'$ 9h[Wj_ede\I?BL7_dYh[c[djYbWii[iWdZYWbYkbWj_ede\c[WdX_WiQ8`SWdZ
ijWdZWhZZ[l_Wj_ede\X_Wi[iQi8`S\ehZ_\\[h[dY[i_d[WY^YbWii$
($ :[h_lWj_ede\j^[h[]h[ii_edceZ[b\ehijWdZWhZZ[l_Wj_edie\X_Wi[i"ki_d]j^[
c_ZZb[e\I?BL7_dYh[c[djYbWii[iQi8`3\_I?BL7`S$
)$ 9WbYkbWj_ede\hWdZec[hhehQ;Sedj^[XWi_ie\W=Wkii_WdZ_ijh_Xkj_edZ[#
\_d[ZXoX_WiWdZijWdZWhZZ[l_Wj_ede\X_WiWi\ebbemi0
;Z3=7KII8Z"I8
;^3=7KII8^"I8^
<_dWbYWb_XhWj[ZIbelWa_Wd_dYh[c[djiWh[YWbYkbWj[ZXo0
_ZIA3_ZI?BL7Ä8Z!;Z
q_^UqZsIA3_UqZsI?BL7Ä8UqZs!;UqZss
_^IA3_^I?BL7Ä8^!;^
q_Uq^sIA3_Uq^sI?BL7Ä8Uq^s!;Uq^ss
4ABLEÈÈ#OEFFICIENTSÈOFÈREGRESSIONÈFORÈCALCULATIONÈOFÈBIASESÈINÈDEPENDENCEÈOFÈTREEÈSPECIES
&IGÈÈ$ERIVATIONÈOFÈCORRECTIONSÈBIAS ÈFORÈPURPOSESÈOFÈTHEÈCALIBRATEDÈMODELÈ3),6!È3+È%XAM
PLEÈOFÈDIAMETERÈINCREMENTÈOFÈBEECHÈ4HEÈX
AXISÈDESCRIBESÈANNUALÈDIAMETERÈFROMÈ3),6!ÈÈANDÈ
THEÈY
AXISÈDESCRIBESÈOBSERVEDÈDIFFERENCESÈBETWEENÈTHEÈ3),6!ÈMODELLEDÈINCREMENTÈANDÈREALÈIN
CREMENTÈFROMÈPERMANENTÈMONITORINGÈPLOTSÈ3),6!
2%!,
È
$EVELOPMENTÈOFÈTHEÈ3)"9,!È'ROWTHÈ-ODEL
:kh_d]YWb_XhWj_ede\j^[I?BL7IAceZ[bWioij[cWj_Y[hheh_dceZ[b_d]Z_#
Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^mWiZ_iYel[h[Z$7bie"j^[YWb_XhWj[Zl[hi_edZ_ZdejWb#
bem_cfb[c[djWj_ede\X_ec[jh_YiijWdZWhZijh[[lebkc[YWbYkbWj_ed[gkWj_edi
eh[Yedec_YceZ[bi_$[$"YeijWdZh[l[dk[YWbYkbWj_edi$J^[i[^WZjeX[iebl[Z
m_j^[nj[hdWbie\jmWh[ceZkb[i"m^_Y^mWidej]eeZ_dj[hcie\ie\jmWh[fheY[ii#
_d]Yedi_ij[dYo$J^[iWc[fheXb[ceYYkhh[Zm^[dZ[\_d_d]i_j[YedZ_j_edi"m^_Y^
m[h[b_da[Zje=[hcWd]hemj^h[]_edi$J^_ifheXb[c^WZjeX[iebl[Zki_d]j^[
ie\jmWh[ ceZkb[ I?BL7 CWdW][h$ J^[h[ m[h[ Wbie Z_\\_Ykbj_[i m_j^ _cfb[c[dj#
_d]IbelWa_WdWb]eh_j^cie\ijWdZijhkYjkh[][d[hWj_edZ_h[Yjbo_djej^[I?BL7IA
ie\jmWh[Wffb_YWj_ed$J^[h[mWiWdWZZ_j_edWbfheXb[cm_j^Z[\_d_d]j^[gkWb_jo
e\jh[[i"m^_Y^mWidej_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[=[hcWdceZ[bXkjmWid[Y[iiWho\ehki_d]
beYWbWiiehjc[djceZ[bi$J^[i[WdZej^[hh[Wiedib[Zjej^[d[[Z\ehWd[m"\kbbo
beYWb_p[Z"WdZfWhWc[j[h_p[Z]hemj^ceZ[bWim[bbWiWd[mie\jmWh[_cfb[c[d#
jWj_ede\j^_iceZ[b"m^_Y^mWidWc[ZI?8OB7$J^[XWi_YYedZ_j_edi\ehZ[l[bef#
c[dje\j^[\_hijl[hi_ede\j^_iceZ[bm[h[bemYeij"Wi^ehjZ[l[befc[djf[h_eZ"
ef[dWhY^_j[Yjkh[h[]WhZ_d]\kjkh[fWhWc[j[hi"WdZYecfWj_X_b_jom_j^_d\ehcW#
j_edioij[ciX[_d]ki[Z_d\eh[ijho$J^[h[ikbjmWiÆWia[b[jede\ceZ_\_[ZWb]e#
h_j^cimhWff[Z_djeWXeZoe\Wd[mie\jmWh[Wffb_YWj_edÇ$
È -ETHODSÈANDÈ0RINCIPLESÈOFÈ-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENT )('
È
"ASICÈ#ONCEPTSÈOFÈTHEÈ3)"9,!È-ODEL
J^[]hemj^ceZ[bYedi_ijie\i[l[hWbXWi_YYecfed[dji07WijWdZijhkYjkh[
][d[hWjeh"8W)#:\eh[ijijhkYjkh[ceZ[b"9WYWbYkbWj_d]ceZ[bm^_Y^YWbYk#
bWj[ifheZkYj_edWdZ[Yebe]_YWbWdZ[Yedec_Y\eh[ijijWdZfWhWc[j[hi":Wceh#
jWb_jo ceZ[b" ; W j^_dd_d] ceZ[b" < W Yecf[j_j_ed ceZ[b" WdZ = Wd _dYh[#
c[djceZ[b$7b]eh_j^cie\j^[cW`ehfehj_edie\j^[ceZ[b:";"<"=Wh[XWi[Z
ed j^[ fh_dY_fb[i e\ j^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWjeh I?BL7 ($( Fh[jpiY^ WdZ AW^d '//.$
J^[i[Wb]eh_j^cim[h[YWb_XhWj[ZXoc[Wdie\ceZ_\_YWj_ede\_dZ_Y[iehfWhWc#
[j[hi$CeZ[b7mWifWhjboh[l_i[Z0][d[hWj_ede\j^[Z_Wc[j[hiWdZ^[_]^jie\_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[i_dj^[ijWdZ"jh[[gkWb_jo][d[hWj_ed"WdZ][d[hWj_ede\=?IWbj_jkZ[
YeehZ_dWj[ie\j^[jh[[XWi[$FWhj_WbWb]eh_j^cie\j^[IJHK=;D][d[hWjehe\j^[
]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?BL7($(m[h[ki[Z1j^_i_dYbkZ[Z][d[hWj_ede\j^[^eh_ped#
jWbYeehZ_dWj[iFh[jpiY^'//)e\j^[jh[[fei_j_edWdZ][d[hWj_ede\YhemdfW#
hWc[j[hiFh[jpiY^WdZAW^d'//.$CeZ[b9mWiYecfb[j[boh[l_i[Z_dYed\ehc#
_jom_j^Wb]eh_j^ciZ[h_l[Z\ehIbelWa_WdYedZ_j_edi0YWbYkbWj_edie\\eh[ijijWdZ
fheZkYj_edY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"\eh[ijZ[di_joY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"X_eZ_l[hi_jo_dZ_Y[i"WdZ
YeijiWdZh[jkhdi\hecXWi_Y^Whl[ijWdZjhWdifehjWYj_l_j_[i$CeZ[b8mWiWbie
d[mboZ[l[bef[Z1_j][d[hWj[il_ikWb\eh[ijijhkYjkh[XWi[Zedl_hjkWbh[Wb_jo$J^[
\bemY^Whje\j^[I?8OB7ceZ[b_ii^emd_d<_]$'+$)$
:WjWed_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iZ_Wc[j[hi"^[_]^ji"^eh_pedjWbWdZ^_]^#Wbj_jkZ[fe#
i_j_edi"^[_]^jijej^[XWi[e\j^[Yhemdi"YhemdZ_Wc[j[hi"WdZjh[[gkWb_joWh[
j^[_d_j_Wb_dfkjZWjWjej^[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$?dj^[YWi[e\c_ii_d]ZWjW"j^_i_d#
\ehcWj_ed_i][d[hWj[Zj^hek]^j^[ijWdZijhkYjkh[][d[hWjehceZ[b7$C_ii_d]
ZWjWe\j[deYYkhm_j^IbelWa_Wd\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW"m^[h[edboijWdZY^WhWYj[h#
_ij_Yic[WdZ_Wc[j[hi"c[Wd^[_]^ji"WdZlebkc[f[h^[YjWh[\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[
if[Y_[iWh[WlW_bWXb[$H[Wbeh][d[hWj[Z\eh[ijijWdZiWh[Z_ifbWo[Z_dj^[\ehce\
W )#: ceZ[b 8" m^_b[ fheZkYj_ed Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi" \eh[ij ijhkYjkh[ Y^WhWYj[h_i#
j_Yi"WdZ[Yedec_YY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWh[YWbYkbWj[ZXoc[Wdie\j^[YWbYkbWj_d]ceZ#
[b9$CeZ[bi\kdYj_ed_dWY[hjW_dehZ[h0j^[cehjWb_joceZ[b_i\_hij:"WdZ_i
\ebbem[ZXoj^[j^_dd_d]ceZ[b;"j^[Yecf[j_j_edceZ[b<"WdZj^[_dYh[c[dj
ceZ[b="m^_Y^Wh[WYj_lWj[Zm^[di_ckbWj_ed\ehj^[d[njf[h_eZ_ih[gk_h[Z$
8eeb[Wd lWbk[i _dZ_YWj_d] j^[ ijWjki e\ ikhl_lWb e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[i _d j^[ Ykh#
h[djf[h_eZ'3jh[[ikhl_l[Z"&3jh[[Z_[ZWh[j^[h[ikbjie\j^[cehjWb_joceZ[b$
8eeb[WdlWbk[iWbieh[ikbj\hecj^[j^_dd_d]ceZ[b;'3a[[fjh[["&3h[cel[
jh[[$7]hemj^h[ZkYj_ed\WYjehXWi[Zedj^[Yecf[j_j_edceZ[b<_iYWbYkbWj#
[ZW\j[hmWhZi"Z[f[dZ_d]cW_dboedj^[Yecf[j_j_l[fh[iikh[e\j^[ikhhekdZ_d]
jh[[i$<_dWbbo"j^[_dYh[c[djceZ[b=_iWffb_[Zje[WY^jh[[j^WjfWii[ijej^[
\ebbem_d]f[h_eZXej^8eeb[WdlWbk[i[gkWb'$:_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dji
e\[WY^jh[["Z[f[dZ_d]edYb_cWj[WdZie_bi_j[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"h[ikbj\hecj^[_d#
Yh[c[djceZ[b$J^[i[\WYjehiWh[h[ZkY[ZXoj^[h[ZkYj_ed\WYjeh\hecj^[fh[l_#
ekiceZ[b<$D[mjh[[Z_Wc[j[hiWdZ^[_]^jiWh[YWbYkbWj[Zki_d]j^_i_d\ehcW#
j_ed$H[cW_d_d]jh[[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"ikY^WiYhemdfWhWc[j[hi"Wh[eXjW_d[Z\hec
[gkWj_edih[bWj[Zjejh[[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j$J^[d[mijWdZi_jkWj_ed_iW]W_d
l_ikWb_p[ZXoceZ[b8WdZekjfkjijWdZZWjWWh[Z[h_l[Z\hecj^[YWbYkbWj_d]
ceZ[b9$J^[ceZ[bi[gk[dY[h[f[Wjikdj_bj^[[dZe\j^[i_ckbWj_ed$
)(( #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
&IGÈÈ&LOWCHARTÈOFÈ
THEÈMODELÈ3)"9,!
3TANDÈ3TRUCTUREÈ'ENERATOR
J^[ ceZ[b ][d[hWj[i c_ii_d] ZWjW \eh _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[i Z_Wc[j[h" ^[_]^j"
Yhemd fWhWc[j[hi" ifWj_Wb YeehZ_dWj[i" gkWb_jo$ :_Wc[j[h Z_ijh_Xkj_edi WdZ
^[_]^jYkhl[iWh[j^[XWi_YYecfed[djie\j^[ceZ[b$9khl[ie\Z_Wc[j[hZ_ijh_#
Xkj_ediWh[Z[h_l[Z\hecj^[M[_Xkbb\kdYj_ed\eh[WY^jh[[if[Y_[iWd[nWcfb[
_ii^emd_d<_]$'+$*$GkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[hiZ]"j^[_hYe[\\_Y_[djie\lWh_W#
j_ediZ"WdZdkcX[he\jh[[if[h^[YjWh[DZ[\_d[j^[Ykhl[i0
YZ'$)YÄ'
\Z'$)3ÄÄÕ ÄÄÄÄÄ Õ[ÕD
XX
È -ETHODSÈANDÈ0RINCIPLESÈOFÈ-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENT )()
&IGÈÈ &REQUENCYÈ DIAMETERÈ DISTRIBUTIONÈ DEPENDINGÈ ONÈ MEANÈ DIAMETERÈ DG È ANDÈ DEGREEÈ
OFÈVARIANCEÈÈSMALLÈÈMEDIUMÈÈLARGE È%XAMPLEÈFORÈSPRUCEÈ4HEÈX
AXISÈDESCRIBESÈDIAMETERÈATÈ
BREASTÈHEIGHTÈOFÈTREEÈANDÈTHEÈY
AXISÈDESCRIBESÈFREQUENCY
M[_XkbbYe[\\_Y_[djiY"XZ[f[dZedj^[gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[hWdZYe[\#
\_Y_[dje\lWh_Wj_ed$
Jh[[ ^[_]^ji Wh[ YWbYkbWj[Z \hec kd_\ehc ^[_]^j Ykhl[i c[bae [j Wb$ '/.-
j^WjWh[Z[h_l[Z\eh[WY^jh[[if[Y_[i$?dWZZ_j_edjejh[[Z_Wc[j[hZ'$)"j^[gkWZ#
hWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[hZ]WdZc[Wd^[_]^j^]Wh[j^[_dfkji_djeYkhl[i0
^3'")!^]Ä'")Õ[nfW&!W'Õ^]!W(ÕZ]Õ ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
''
Z'$)Z]
9hemdfWhWc[j[hiYedi_ije\^[_]^jjej^[XWi[e\j^[YhemdY^WdZcWn_#
cWbYhemdZ_Wc[j[hYZm^_Y^Wh[[ij_cWj[Z\hecjh[[Z_Wc[j[hZ'$)WdZ^[_]^j
^$J^[h[]h[ii_ed\ehckbWi\hecj^[I?BL7($(ceZ[bWh[kj_b_p[ZFh[jpiY^WdZ
AW^d'//.0
YZ3[
Y^3^Õ 'Ä[
>eh_pedjWb jh[[ YeehZ_dWj[i Wh[ d[nj ][d[hWj[Z ki_d] j^[ Fe_iied fheY[ii
Fh[jpiY^'//)$7dWb]eh_j^cWbbemied[ehceh[jh[[if[Y_[ijeX[Z_ijh_Xkj[Z_d
Ybkij[hiehijh_fim_j^_dj^[hWdZecZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\Wdej^[hjh[[if[Y_[i$J^[Ye#
ehZ_dWj[][d[hWj_edfheY[ii_iYedZkYj[ZXoc[Wdie\\_bj[hi$Fei_j_edie\]hekf[Z
jh[[if[Y_[iYbkij[hiehijh_fiWh[][d[hWj[Z\_hij$I[YedZ"j^[ijWdZ_i\_bb[Zm_j^
ej^[hjh[[if[Y_[i$J^[\_bj[he\j^[\_hijij[fYh[Wj[ij^[ijWdZcWYheijhkYjkh["_$[$"
Ybkij[hiehijh_fi1j^[i[YedZ\_bj[hh[]kbWj[ij^[ijWdZc_YheijhkYjkh[fh[i[hl_d]
)(* #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
c_d_cWbZ_ijWdY[iX[jm[[djh[[i$J^[ceZ[b_i\kbboijeY^Wij_Y$L[hj_YWbYeehZ_#
dWj[iWh[][d[hWj[ZWdZWjjWY^[Zje^eh_pedjWbjh[[YeehZ_dWj[i$7)#:d[jmeha
bWjj_Y[imWiZ[l[bef[Zki_d]WZ_]_jWbj[hhW_dceZ[bWdZj^[fh_dY_fb[e\j^[X_#
b_d[Wh _dj[hfebWj_ed mWi kj_b_p[Z <WXh_aW (&&)W$ GkWb_jWj_l[ jh[[ Y^WhWYj[h_i#
j_YigkWb_joYbWiiWdZZWcW][Wh[Z[h_l[ZbWij$:WjWWh[Z[h_l[Zki_d]WijeY^Wi#
j_Y][d[hWj_edfheY[Zkh["m^_Y^_iXWi[Zedj^[f[hY[djW][e\gkWb_joYbWii[iWdZ
Yecfei_j_ede\ZWcW][Zjh[[i$7bbj^[_dfkjZWjW\eh][d[hWj_d]j^[ijWdZijhkY#
jkh[Wh[WZefj[ZehZ[h_l[Z\hec][d[hWbboWlW_bWXb[\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjW$J^[Z[#
iYh_X[ZceZ[b_il[ho\b[n_Xb[WdZWbbemij^[][d[hWj_ede\WXheWZhWd][e\ijWdZ
ijhkYjkh[i"\hec[l[d#W][Z^ece][dekiijWdZijekd[l[d#W][Zc_n[ZijWdZi$
È
4HEÈ4HREE
$IMENSIONALÈ&ORESTÈ3TRUCTUREÈ-ODEL
J^[ ceZ[b Wbbemi \eh l_ikWb_pWj_ed e\ j^[ ijWdZ ijhkYjkh[$ Jme WffheWY^[i
Wh[ki[Z\ehj^_ifkhfei[$J^[\_hijWffheWY^Z[Wbim_j^][d[hWb_p[ZijWdZ_d\eh#
cWj_ed$ ?j ki[i fhe`[Yj_ed j[Y^d_gk[i je Z_ifbWo j^[ ijWdZ _d W )#: f[hif[Yj_l[$
J^[ceZ[bWbbemij^[l_[m[hjeY^Wd][j^[l_[m_d]Wd]b[Xoi^_\j_d]WdZhejWj#
_d]j^[ijWdZWdZj^[fei_j_ede\j^[l_[m[h$J^[i[YedZWffheWY^[nfehjiijWdZ
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YijeWl_hjkWbh[Wb_jol_hjkWbh[Wb_joceZ[bbWd]kW]["LHCBioij[c$
?j[dWXb[ij^[Yh[Wj_ede\WYedi_ij[dj)#:ijWdZceZ[bm_j^j^[kdb_c_j[ZWX_b#
_jo je l_hjkWbbo mWba WdZ \bo j^hek]^ j^[ ijWdZ$7b]eh_j^ci \eh j[Y^d_YWb [n[Yk#
j_ede\j^[l_hjkWbh[Wb_jol_ikWb_pWj_edWh[Z[iYh_X[ZXo<WXh_aW(&&)W$;nWc#
fb[ie\Xej^WffheWY^[ie\j^[l_ikWb_pWj_edki[ZXoj^[I?8OB7ceZ[bWh[i^emd
_d<_]$'+$+$
È
4HEÈ#ALCULATINGÈ-ODEL
&IGÈÈÈ
%XAMPLESÈOFÈÈ
VISUALIZATIONÈINÈ
THEÈMODELÈ3)"9,!ÈÈ
AÈ
$ÈPROJECTIONÈÈ
BÈVIRTUALÈSTAND
\eh YWbYkbWj_edi I^Wdded '/*.1 I_cfied '/*/1 9bWha WdZ ;lWdi '/+*1 CWh]Wb[\
'/+.1C[d^_d_Ya'/,*1>_bb'/-)1F_[bek'/-+1Fh[jpiY^'//(1<bZd[h'//+1@W[^d[
WdZ:e^h[dXkiY^'//-$
9WbYkbWj_ede\\eh[ijh[l[dk[i_iXWi[ZedijWdZWhZWiiehjc[djceZ[bi"m^[h[
j^[jejWblebkc[\eh[WY^jh[[_iZ_l_Z[Z_djeZ_\\[h[djj_cX[hYbWii[iF[jh|WdZ
DeY_Wh '//&" '//'$ J^[ jh[[ Z_Wc[j[h" gkWb_jo YbWii" ZWcW][ Wii[iic[dj" \eh[ij
[Ye#h[]_ed" WdZ W][ Wh[ _dfkj _dje j^[ ceZ[b$ <_dWb h[jkhdi \hec j^[ \eh[ij Wh[
j^[deXjW_d[ZXockbj_fbo_d]j^[jejWblebkc[_d[WY^YbWiiXo _jifh_Y[_dIAA
IbelWa9hemdWdZj^[dikcc_d]j^[h[ikbji$
7jj^[iWc[j_c["j^[ceZ[bYWbYkbWj[iYeiji\ehXWi_YWYj_l_j_[i0Ykjj_d]"oWhZ#
_d]"WdZYedl[hi_ed$JejWbZ_h[YjYeijiWh[YWbYkbWj[Z\ehijW\\"\k[b"WdZieY_WbYeiji$
IjW\\ Yeiji 9'Wh[Z[h_l[Z\hecbeYWb[\\_Y_[dYoijWdZWhZi\ehYkjj_d]"oWhZ_d]"
WdZ Yedl[hi_ed$ IjWdZWhZ fheZkYj_l_jo j_c[ hWj[i IJ \eh [WY^ jh[[ if[Y_[i Wh[
j^[XWi_i\ehYeijYWbYkbWj_edi$J^[i[hWj[iWh[ceZ_\_[Zm_j^Z[ZkYj_ediWdZel[h#
Y^Wh][iWYYehZ_d]jeef[hWj_edYedZ_j_edi$IjW\\YeijiWh[YWbYkbWj[Zki_d]j^[leb#
kc[e\j^[h[b[lWdjjh[[if[Y_[iLc[Wikh[Z_dYkX_Yc[j[hiWdZj^[ijW\\iWbW#
hoJ_dIAAf[h^ekh0
9'3IJÕLÕJ
<k[bYeiji9($'\ehWYj_l_j_[iki_d]WY^W_diWmYkjj_d]WdZYedl[hi_edWh[
YWbYkbWj[ZWi\ebbemi0
)(, #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
9($'3IJÕaÕ<ÕL
_$[$"j^[ijWdZWhZj_c[e\h[b[lWdjWYj_l_j_[iIJ_ih[ZkY[ZXoj^[h[_cXkhi[#
c[djih[ZkYj_edYe[\\_Y_[dj\ehj^[Y^W_diWmaWdZh[YWbYkbWj[ZWYYehZ_d]je\k#
[bYeijif[hh[ZkY[ZijWdZWhZ^ekh<WdZj^[[nfbe_j[Zlebkc[L$<k[bYeiji
9($(\ehoWhZ_d]Wh[Z_h[YjboZ[h_l[Z\hecj^[WYjkWboWhZ[Zlebkc[LWdZ\k#
[bYeijif[hYkX_Yc[j[h<0
9($(3LÕ<
IeY_WbYeiji9)Wh[YWbYkbWj[Zedj^[XWi_ie\ijW\\Yeiji9'WdZXoj^[i^Wh[
e\cWdZWjehoieY_WbZ[b_l[hoI0
9)39'ÕI
JejWb Z_h[Yj Yeiji 9 Wh[ YWbYkbWj[Z Wi W ikc e\ j^[ ijW\\" \k[b" WdZ ieY_Wb
Yeiji$
È
4HEÈ-ORTALITYÈ-ODEL
ó
J^_iceZ[b_iWZefj[Z\hecj^[I?BL7($(]hemj^i_ckbWjeh:khia[jWb$'//,1
ó
:khia'//-1Fh[jpiY^WdZAW^d'//.$J^[ekjfkje\j^[ceZ[b_iWikhl_lWb_d#
Z_YWjehe\[WY^jh[[&3jh[[m_bbZ_["'3jh[[m_bbb_l[$J^[fheXWX_b_joj^Wjj^[jh[[
m_bbZ_[_i[nfh[ii[ZWiWf[hY[djW][0
W
Chj3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ Y
[XÕ<Äbe]_j
J^[ <Ube]_j lWbk[ _i Z[h_l[Z \eh [WY^ jh[[ ed j^[ XWi_i e\ _ji Z_c[di_ed"i_j[
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi"WdZYecf[j_j_l[fh[iikh[$LWbk[iW"X"WdZYWh[Ye[\\_Y_[djij^Wj
Z[f[dZedjh[[if[Y_[i$:[h_lWj_ede\j^[jh[[ikhl_lWb_dZ_YWjehYec[i\hecj^[
YecfWh_ied e\ W hWdZecbo ][d[hWj[Z dkcX[h \hec j^[ kd_\ehc Z_ijh_Xkj_ed
&$$$'&&WdZfheXWX_b_joChj$?\j^[][d[hWj[ZdkcX[h_iicWbb[hj^Wdj^[YWb#
YkbWj[Zikhl_lWbfheXWX_b_jo"j^[jh[[_iYedi_Z[h[ZWiZ[WZh[ikbj_d]lWbk[_i&1
ej^[hm_i["j^[jh[[_ih[]WhZ[ZWib_l_d]h[ikbj_d]lWbk[_i'$
È
4HEÈ4HINNINGÈ-ODEL
J^[j^_dd_d]ceZ[bfheZkY[iWYkjj_d]_dZ_YWjeh\eh[WY^jh[[&3h[cel[jh[["
'3jh[[ h[cW_di$ J^[ ceZ[b Wbbemi Z_\\[h[dj j^_dd_d] c[j^eZi0 j^_dd_d] \hec
X[bem"j^_dd_d]\hecWXel["gkWb_joYhemdj^_dd_d]"Yhefjh[[ic[j^eZ"WdZjWh#
][jZ_c[di_edic[j^eZ$7b]eh_j^ciWh[XWi[ZedWYecX_dWj_ede\Z[j[hc_d_ij_Y
ceZ[bi"ijeY^Wij_YceZ[bi"WdZ\kppohkb[i#XWi[ZceZ[biAW^d'//+$J^[c[d#
j_ed[Zj^_dd_d]c[j^eZimeham_j^ekjWdoWii_ijWdY[e\j^[ioij[cki[h$7jh[[
È -ETHODSÈANDÈ0RINCIPLESÈOFÈ-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENT )(-
i[b[Yj_edc[j^eZ\ehYkjj_d]_iXWi[ZedZ_h[Yjif[Y_\_YWj_edXoj^[ki[hWdZWb#
bem[ZWiWdWbj[hdWj_l[$J^[l_hjkWb\eh[ijijWdZ"m^_Y^_i][d[hWj[ZXoLHCBbWd#
]kW]["_iki[Z\ehj^[i[fkhfei[i$J^[ki[hYWdZ_h[Yjbo[dj[h_djej^[l_hjkWb\eh#
[ijWdZif[Y_\oj^_dd_d]XoWd_dj[hWYj_l[i[b[Yj_ede\j^[jWh][jYhefWdZ[n#
jhWYj[Zjh[[i<WXh_aW(&&)W$
È
4HEÈ#OMPETITIONÈ-ODEL
J^[YWbYkbWj_ede\j^[]hemj^h[ZkYj_ed\WYjehYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n_iZ[j[h#
c_d[ZXoj^[99B_dZ[n8WY^cWdd'//."m^_Y^gkWdj_\_[ij^[Yecf[j_j_l[fh[i#
ikh[kdZ[hj^[_d\bk[dY[e\WZ`WY[djjh[[i0
Y7_
3
99B3 B_`ÕÄÄÄÄÄÕa
Y7` _
J^[jh[[iYec_d]_djej^[Yecf[j_j_edYed[A`Wh[h[]WhZ[ZWiYecf[j_jehi
_$J^[Yecf[j_j_edYed[_iWd_dl[hj[ZYed[m_j^i_Z[mWbbiWj)&\hecj^[Y[d#
jhWbWn_ii[[<_]$'+$,$J^[j_fe\j^[Yed[_ifei_j_ed[ZWj,&e\j^[jh[[^[_]^j$
B_`_ij^[Wd]b[X[jm[[dj^[i_Z[mWbbe\j^[Yed["j^[j_fe\j^[Yed["WdZj^[jef
e\j^[Yecf[j_d]jh[[$Y7lWbk[i[nfh[iij^[YhemdXWiWbWh[Wie\j^[Y[djhWbjh[[
`WdZYecf[j_jehi_$J^[lWbk[a_h[fh[i[djij^[b_]^jjhWdic_ii_edYe[\\_Y_[dj
e\_dZ_l_ZkWbYecf[j_jehiWdZZ[f[dZiedjh[[if[Y_[i$7bed]m_j^b_]^jYecf[j_#
j_edZk[jei^WZ_d]"j^[Yecf[j_j_ediocc[jhoWii[iic[djWdZjh[[if[Y_[ic_n#
&IGÈÈ0RINCIPLEÈOFÈTHEÈCOMPETI
TIONÈINDEXÈ##,È#ONEÈOFÈLIGHTÈCOM
PETITIONÈSPACEÈAJ ÈANDÈCOMPETITIONÈ
ANGLEÈBIJ ÈBETWEENÈCENTRALÈTREEÈJ È
ANDÈITSÈCOMPETITORÈI
)(. #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
jkh[ [dj[h _dje j^[ YWbYkbWj_ed$ J^[i[ \WYjehi WdZ j^[ YWbYkbWj[Z 99B je][j^[h
W\\[Yjj^[jejWbYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n$
È
4HEÈ)NCREMENTÈ-ODEL
J^[_dYh[c[djceZ[bmWiWZWfj[Z\hecj^[ceZ[bI?BL7($(Fh[jpiY^'//($
J^[ceZ[b_iXWi[ZedWd[Yebe]_YWbi_j[YbWii_\_YWj_ed"m^_Y^Z_h[YjboZhWmi\hec
j^[\ebbem_d]Yb_cWj[WdZie_bi_j[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiAW^d'//*0b[d]j^e\l[][jW#
j_edi[WieddkcX[he\ZWoim_j^j^[c[WdZWoj[cf[hWjkh[^_]^[hj^Wd'&9"
o[Whbo j[cf[hWjkh[ Wcfb_jkZ[" c[Wd j[cf[hWjkh[ Zkh_d] j^[ l[][jWj_ed i[Wied"
jejWbfh[Y_f_jWj_edZkh_d]j^[l[][jWj_edi[Wied"9E(WdZD(EYedj[dj_dj^[W_h"
ie_bce_ijkh["ie_bdkjh_[djikffbo"WdZWh_Z_dZ[n_dj^[l[][jWj_edi[Wied$J^[i[
\WYjehi[dj[hj^[\kppoi[jc[cX[hi^_f"m^_Y^mWiYedijhkYj[Zj^hek]^jh[[if[#
Y_[i#i[di_j_l[ijkZ_[ie\[dl_hedc[djWb\WYjehi$J^[h[ikbjie\j^[i[ef[hWj_ediWh[
dkjh_[dj"j^[hcWb"WdZ^kc_Z_dZ_Y[i$J^[i[_dZ_Y[ih[ZkY[j^[^[_]^j]hemj^fe#
j[dj_Wbe\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[if[Y_[i\hecm^_Y^j^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj_iZ[h_l[Z$?dZ_#
Y[iWbieh[ZkY[j^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dje\jh[[if[Y_[i$J^_ifh_dY_fb[e\
ceZ[bb_d]XoY^Wd]_d]]hemj^fWhWc[j[hi_iXWi[ZedIbelWa_Wdo_[bZjWXb[iZW#
jW"Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j\h[gk[dYoZWjW"WdZc[Wikh[ZZWjW\hecf[hcWd[djced#
_jeh_d]fbeji$J^[ceZ[b_iYecfei[Ze\jme_cfehjWdjfWhji0
'$ WikX#ceZ[be\h[bWj_l[_dYh[c[dji[di_j_l_joed[Yebe]_YWbWcfb_jkZ[e\Yb_#
cWj[WdZie_blWbk[i1WdZ
($ WikX#ceZ[be\fej[dj_Wb^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[hhWd][iWiWYkhl[\ehefj_cWb
i_j[YedZ_j_edicWn_ckc_dYh[c[djWdZmehijYedZ_j_edic_d_ckc_dYh[#
c[dj$
9edijhkYj_ede\I?BL7($(kdZ[h=[hcWdYedZ_j_edimWiXWi[ZedWm_Z[iYWb[
e\[nf[di_l[[cf_h_YWbZWjW$8[YWki[e\j^[kdWlW_bWX_b_joe\j^_iZWjW\ehIbelW#
a_WdYedZ_j_edi"m[^Wl[YedijhkYj[Zj^[\_hijikX#ceZ[bki_d]WbbfWhWc[j[hie\
j^[I?BL7($(ceZ[b$EkhWiikcfj_ed_ij^Wjh[bWj_l[i[di_j_l_joe\j^[]hemj^lWb#
k[ied[Yebe]_YWbWcfb_jkZ[\ehjh[[if[Y_[iifhkY["\_h"f_d["X[[Y^"WdZeWa_i
i_c_bWhjeIbelWa_Wd]hemj^fhef[hj_[i$9edijhkYj_ede\j^[ceZ[bi_iXWi[Zed
]hemj^Ykhl[i\ehZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^jZ[l[befc[djWjZ_\\[h[dji_j[YbWii[i$J^[i[
ZWjWWh[WlW_bWXb[_dIbelWa_Wo_[bZjWXb[iWdZ[nf[h_c[djWbZWjW$J^ki"\ehj^[
i[YedZikX#ceZ[b"m[^Wl[Z[h_l[Zd[mhWd][i\ehZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^
fej[dj_Wbki_d]j^[c[j^eZebe]oe\Fh[jpiY^'//(WdZAW^d'//*$J^[h[ikbji
e\j^_iceZ[bWh[kff[hWdZbem[h^[_]^jYkhl[i"m^_Y^Wh[ceZ[bb[Zki_d]hWd][i
e\c_d_cWbWdZcWn_cWbWiocfjej[WdZc_d_cWbWdZcWn_cWbW][ie\_dYh[c[dj
Ykbc_dWj_ed$M[kj_b_p[Zj^[\ebbem_d]]hemj^\kdYj_edXoAeh\0
^cWn3YÕ7Õ[
J^[\kdYj_edZ[iYh_X[iZ[l[befc[dje\^[_]^jfej[dj_Wb^cWn_dh[bWj_edje
W][j$9e[\\_Y_[djie\j^[ceZ[b7"a"fWh[Z[h_l[Z\hecIbelWa_Wdo_[bZjWXb[i
>WbW` [j Wb$ '/.-$ J^[ Ye[\\_Y_[dj Y" m^_Y^ _i W h[bWj_edi^_f X[jm[[d cWn_ckc
È -ETHODSÈANDÈ0RINCIPLESÈOFÈ-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈANDÈ$EVELOPMENT )(/
WdZZec_dWdj^[_]^j"_iZ[h_l[Z\hecIbelWa_Wd^[_]^j\h[gk[dYoYkhl[i>WbW`
'/-.$7YecfWh_iedX[jm[[dI?BL7($(WdZI?8OB7_iZ[f_Yj[Z_d<_]$'+$-$J^[
d[njh[ikbje\j^[ceZ[b_iZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj]hemj^fej[dj_Wb_ZcWn"m^_Y^_i
Z[f[dZ[djedjh[[Z_Wc[j[hZ'$)$J^[\kdYj_ed_i0
a
_ZcWn3Z'$)ÕÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
Äa
ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
Z'$)
?d ÄÄÄÄÄÄ ÕfÄ'
YÕ7
&IGÈÈ#OMPARISONÈOFÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈPOTENTIALÈINÈTHEÈMODELSÈ3)"9,!ÈANDÈ3),6!ÈÈ&IGUREÈDE
SCRIBESÈUPPERÈANDÈLOWERÈHEIGHTÈPOTENTIALSÈOFÈAÈTREEÈDEPENDINGÈONÈITSÈAGEÈFORÈSPRUCEÈFIRÈPINEÈ
BEECHÈ ANDÈ OAKÈ 4HEÈ UPPERÈ HEIGHTÈ POTENTIALÈ ISÈ DERIVEDÈ FORÈ THEÈ BESTÈ SITEÈ CONDITIONSÈ ANDÈ LOWERÈ
HEIGHTÈPOTENTIALÈISÈDERIVEDÈFORÈTHEÈWORSTÈSITEÈCONDITIONSÈ4HEÈFUNCTIONÈBYÈ+ORFÈWASÈUTILIZEDÈFORÈ
THEÈ3)"9,!ÈMODELÈANDÈTHEÈFUNCTIONÈBYÈ#HAPMANNÈANDÈ2ICHARDSÈWASÈUTILIZEDÈFORÈ3),6!È
))& #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
9e[\\_Y_[djie\j^[ceZ[b7"a"fWh[Z[h_l[Z\hecIbelWa_Wdo_[bZjWXb[iZW#
jW>WbW`[jWb$'/.-WdZj^[Ye[\\_Y_[djY"m^_Y^_iWh[bWj_edi^_fX[jm[[dcWn_#
ckcWdZc[WdZ_Wc[j[h"_iZ[h_l[Z\hecIbelWa_WdZ_Wc[j[h\h[gk[dYoYkhl[i
>WbW`'/+-$9ecfWh_iedX[jm[[dj^[I?BL7($(WdZI?8OB7ceZ[bi_ii^emd_d
<_]$'+$.$
?dfhWYj_Y["Z[jW_b[ZYb_cWj[WdZie_bfWhWc[j[hiWh[e\j[dkdademd$<ehj^_i
h[Wied"m[Z[Y_Z[ZjeYh[Wj[Wd[m"][d[hWb_p[ZceZ[bXWi[ZedYkhh[dj\eh[ij_d#
l[djehoZWjW\eh[ij[Ye#h[]_ed"WXiebkj[Wbj_jkZ["ijWdZWif[Yj"ijWdZibef["YWb#
[dZWh o[Wh" WdZ \eh[ij jof[$ J^[ ceZ[b e\ Yb_cWj[ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi mWi Z[h_l[Z
\hecm[Wj^[hXkh[WkZWjW"m^_Y^m[h[jhWdi\ehc[Z_djej^[d[Y[iiWholWh_WXb[i
&IGÈÈ#OMPARISONÈOFÈPOTENTIALÈDIAMETERÈINCREMENTÈINÈTHEÈMODELSÈ3)"9,!ÈANDÈ3),6!ÈÈ
&IGUREÈDESCRIBESÈMAXIMALÈDIAMETERÈINCREMENTÈFORÈAÈTREEÈDEPENDINGÈONÈITSÈDIAMETERÈOBSERVEDÈ
FORÈTHEÈBESTÈSITEÈCONDITIONSÈFORÈSPRUCEÈFIRÈPINEÈBEECHÈANDÈOAKÈ4HEÈFUNCTIONÈBYÈ+ORFÈWASÈUTI
LIZEDÈFORÈTHEÈ3)"9,!ÈMODELÈANDÈTHEÈFUNCTIONÈBYÈ#HAPMANNÈANDÈ2ICHARDSÈWASÈUTILIZEDÈFORÈ3),
6!È
È 3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ-ODELS ))'
b[d]j^e\l[][jWj_edi[Wied"c[Wdj[cf[hWjkh[_dl[][jWj_edi[Wied"o[Whboj[c#
f[hWjkh[ Wcfb_jkZ[" WdZ jejWb fh[Y_f_jWj_ed _d l[][jWj_ed i[Wied WdZ m[h[ h[#
]_edWb_p[Zj^hek]^ekjIbelWa_W_dj^[=?I[dl_hedc[dj$=[e]hWf^_Y_d\ehcWj_ed
jeebim[h[ki[ZXoj^[h[]_edWb_pWj_edfheY[Zkh[<_]$'+$/$<eh[ij[Ye#h[]_ed][#
e]hWf^_Y bWo[h _d\ehcWj_ed mWi el[hbW_Z m_j^ Yb_cWj[ _cW][i$ ?cW][i m[h[ [n#
fei[ZjeYheii#YbWii_\_YWj_edj^hek]^WXiebkj[Wbj_jkZ[$J^[h[ikbjiWh[jWXb[ied
Yb_cWj[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi\ehcWn_ckcWdZc_d_ckcWXiebkj[Wbj_jkZ[m_j^_dj^[
_dZ_l_ZkWb [Ye#h[]_edi$ J^[ \_dWb Yb_cWj[ Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi m[h[ j^[d _dj[hfebWj[Z
edj^[XWi_ie\Wbj_jkZ[\hecj^[\eh[ij[Ye#h[]_edh[\[h[dY[jWXb[$9^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi
Wh[Yedi[gk[djboceZ_\_[ZXoWif[YjWdZijWdZibef[ceZ_\_YWj_ed\kdYj_edi$Ie_b
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWh[Z[h_l[Zedj^[XWi_ie\j^[\eh[ijjof[$9E(WdZD(EYedY[d#
jhWj_edi_dj^[W_hWh[Z[h_l[Zj^hek]^h[]h[ii_ed"ki_d]j^[YWb[dZWho[Whe\j^[
ijWhje\j^[i_ckbWj_ed$
È
3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ-ODELS
È
3OFTWAREÈ3OLUTIONSÈFORÈTHEÈ3),6!È3+È-ODEL
J^[YWb_XhWj[ZZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^ceZ[bI?BL7IAZ[iYh_X[Z_dI[Y#
j_ed'+$)$' mWi _cfb[c[dj[Z m_j^ j^[ ie\jmWh[ Wffb_YWj_ed I?BL7 CWdW][h$ J^[
Wffb_YWj_ed _i \kbbo beYWb_p[Z je j^[ IbelWa_Wd bWd]kW][ WdZ Yedd[Yj[Z m_j^ j^[
ZWjW e\ IbelWa_Wd \eh[ij _dl[djeho$ CeZ[bi e\ fheZkYj_ed Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi e\ \eh#
[iji" X_eZ_l[hi_jo _dZ_Y[i" Yeiji" WdZ h[l[dk[i m[h[ _dYbkZ[Z _d j^[ ceZ[b \eb#
bem_d]IbelWa_WdX_ec[jh_YWbWdZ[Yedec_YijWdZWhZi$J^[ie\jmWh[Wffb_YWj_ed
mWiXk_bjj^hek]^[nj[hdWbceZkb[i_dehZ[hjeWle_Zlkbd[hWX_b_jom^_Y^YekbZ
Wh_i[j^hek]^Y^Wd]_d]j^[iekhY[YeZ[e\I?BL7($($7bie"j^[ie\jmWh[Wffb_YW#
j_edmWi_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[\eh[ijho_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci=EB;C<WXh_aW(&&(W1
<_]$'+$'&WdZB[i>?I<WXh_aW(&&(X1<_]$'+$''$J^[ioij[ciWbbemj^[ki[hje
Zej^[\ebbem_d]0
'$ I[b[Yj\eh[ijijWdZi\eh]hemj^i_ckbWj_edm_j^ijWdZWhZjeebi_dj^[=?I$
($ L_ikWb_p[ijWdZijhkYjkh[ij^hek]^j^[ijWdZl_ikWb_pWj_edioij[cILICY#
=Wk][o'//-$
)$ =[d[hWj[l_hjkWbijWdZim_j^Jh[[L_[mI[_\[hj'//.$
*$ If[Y_\oYb_cWj["ie_b"WdZW_hfebbkj_edZWjW\ehi[b[Yj[ZijWdZi$
+$ If[Y_\oj^_dd_d]YedY[fjijof["_dj[hlWb"WdZWcekdj\ehi[b[Yj[ZijWdZi$
,$ ;n[Ykj[]hemj^i_ckbWj_edi\ehi[b[Yj[ZijWdZi$
-$ L_[mh[ikbjie\f[h\ehc[Z]hemj^i_ckbWj_edi$
.$ 9edd[Yjh[ikbjZWjWXWi[i\heci_ckbWj_edi_djed[m=?IbWo[hi$
/$ 9h[Wj[j^[cWj_YcWfi\hec]hemj^i_ckbWj_edi$
))( #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
&IGÈÈ 2EGIONALIZATIONÈ OFÈ CLIMATICÈ CHARACTERISTICSÈ INÈ THEÈ ')3È ENVIRONMENTÈ &IGUREÈ PRESENTSÈ
TECHNIQUESÈUSEDÈFORÈREGIONALIZATIONÈINÈTHEÈFORMÈOFÈTHEIRÈSEQUENCE
È 3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ-ODELS )))
&IGÈÈ'/,%-
BASEDÈINFORMATIONÈSYSTEMÈ&IGUREÈPRESENTSÈSCHEMEÈOFÈINFORMATIONÈSYSTEMÈ
ANDÈITSÈCOMPONENTS
È
3OFTWAREÈ3OLUTIONSÈFORÈTHEÈ3)"9,!È-ODEL
J^[ceZ[biZ[iYh_X[Z_dI[Yj_ed'+$)$(^Wl[X[[djhWdi\ehc[Z_djej^[l[h#
i_ede\j^[Yecfkj[hfhe]hWcdWc[ZI?8OB7$?j_iWYecfb[nfhe]hWcfWYaW][
m_j^Yecfed[djWhY^_j[Yjkh[$J^[fhe]hWcfWYaW][_iYedd[Yj[ZjeWh[bWj_edWb
ZWjWXWi[m^_Y^^Wij^[C_Yheie\j7YY[ii\ehcWj$CeZkb[iWh[iebl[Zj^hek]^_d#
Z[f[dZ[djfhe]hWckd_ji$J^[i[kd_jiYWdhkdi[gk[dj_WbboWdZh[gk_h[ki[h_d#
fkjedboWjj^[X[]_dd_d]$J^[fh_dY_fb[e\j^[YeccWdZb_d[ceZ[WdZYed\_]#
khWj_ed\_b[i_ikj_b_p[Z$?j_ifeii_Xb[jeXk_bZj^[ceZkb[i_djeej^[hioij[ci"\eh
[nWcfb["WiWfWhje\j^[cWYhe#bWd]kW][_dj[hfh[j[h"eh_djeej^[h_d\ehcWj_ed
ioij[ci[$]$=?I$?dfkjÄekjfkjYecckd_YWj_ed_i[dikh[ZXo\_n[Zh[bWj_edZW#
jWXWi[ijhkYjkh[$?j_iWbiefeii_Xb[jeki[Wd_dj[hWYj_l[l[hi_ede\j^[fhe]hWc"
m^_Y^^WiWi_cfb[WdZ][d[hWbc[dk$M^_b[ki_d]j^_i\[Wjkh["j^[cW_dYedjheb
ceZkb[I?8OB7Ik_j[cWdW][ij^_ic[dk$J^[\ebbem_d]_iWXh_[\Z[iYh_fj_ede\
j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbceZkb[i<_]$'+$'(0
I?8OB7C[Z_kc J^[ceZkb[i[hl[i\ehZWjWWYgk_i_j_ed\hec\eh[ij_dl[d#
jeho[djh_[i"f[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbeji"eh\_[bZ=?I$
I?8OB7=[d[hWjeh J^[ceZkb[i[hl[i\eh][d[hWj_ede\kdademdehc_ii#
_d]ZWjWed_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i$
))* #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
&IGÈÈ 0RESENTATIONÈ OFÈ SOMEÈ SOFTWAREÈ FORMSÈ OFÈ THEÈ INFORMATIONÈ SYSTEMÈ ,ES()3È &IGUREÈ
PRESENTSÈAÈTHEMATICÈFORESTÈMAPÈSTANDÈVISUALIZATIONÈSPECIFICATIONÈOFÈSITEÈCHARACTERISTICSÈCLIMATEÈ
ANDÈSOIL ÈSELECTIONÈOFÈTHINNINGÈCONCEPTÈPROCESSÈOFÈSIMULATIONÈANDÈRESULTSÈFROMÈSIMULATION
I?8OB7BeYWb_p[h J^[ ceZkb[ i[hl[i \eh WZ`kij_d] j^[ Yb_cWj[ WdZ ie_b
Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi e\ \eh[ij ijWdZi$ ?j _i feii_Xb[ je Z_h[Yj#
boif[Y_\oj^[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi_\j^[oWh[ademdeh_dZ_#
h[Yjbom_j^j^[][d[hWb_p[ZceZ[b$J^[][d[hWb_p[ZceZ[b
È 3OFTWAREÈ)MPLEMENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ-ODELS ))+
&IGÈÈ-ODULESÈOFÈTHEÈSOFTWAREÈ3)"9,!È3UITEÈANDÈTHEIRÈRELATIONS
_iXWi[ZedijWdZbeYWb_pWj_ededW\eh[ij[Ye#h[]_edcWf
WdZj^[WXiebkj[Wbj_jkZ[i[jj_d]"Wif[Yj"ibef["j^[YWb[d#
ZWho[Wh"WdZj^[\eh[ijjof[$
I?8OB79kbj_lWjeh J^[ceZkb[i[hl[i\ehcWdW][c[dje\j^_dd_d]c[j^eZi
WdZ i_ckbWj_ed fWhWc[j[hi$ ?j _i feii_Xb[ je if[Y_\o Z_\#
\[h[djj^_dd_d]c[j^eZij^_dd_d]\hecX[bem"j^_dd_d]
\hec WXel[" gkWb_jo Yhemd j^_dd_d]" Yhef jh[[i c[j^eZ"
ehjWh][jZ_c[di_edic[j^eZ"j^[i_ckbWj_edb[d]j^"_d#
j[hlWb"_dj[di_joe\j^_dd_d]c[Wikh[i"WdZieed$7jj^[
iWc[ j_c[ j^[ fhe]hWc Wbbemi j^[ ki[h je if[Y_\o j^[
j^_dd_d] j^hek]^ _dj[hWYj_l[ jh[[ i[b[Yj_ed jWh][j WdZ
h[celWb_dj^[l_hjkWbh[Wb_jo[dl_hedc[dj$
I?8OB7Fhef^[i_[h J^[ cW_d ceZkb[" m^_Y^ [n[Ykj[i j^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbW#
j_edi WdZ YWbYkbWj_ed e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ZWjW _d j^[ f[#
h_eZi e\ j^[ ]hemj^ i_ckbWj_ed$ Efj_edi \hec fh[l_eki
ceZkb[i_d_j_WbijWdZijWjki"i_j["j^_dd_d]c[j^eZiWh[
ki[Z_dj^[i_ckbWj_ed$
I?8OB79WbYkbWjeh J^[ ceZkb[ i[hl[i \eh j^[ YWbYkbWj_ed e\ ijWdZ fheZkY#
j_edZWjW"\eh[ijX_eZ_l[hi_jo"h[jkhdi\hecj^[\eh[ij"WdZ
Yeiji e\ Ykjj_d] Ä jhWdifehj WYj_l_j_[i$ ?j _i feii_Xb[ je
if[Y_\oj^[fh_Y[ie\jof[ie\meeZ"c[j^eZi"j[Y^debe#
]_[i"Ykjj_d]WYj_l_j_[iWdZYedZ_j_edi"meeZoWhZ_d]"WdZ
Yedl[hi_ed$Ceh[el[h"_j_ifeii_Xb[jeZ[j[hc_d[j^[ijW\\
jWh_\\i"kd_j\k[bYeiji\ehi_d]b[WYj_l_j_[i"WdZej^[h[Ye#
dec_YfWhWc[j[hi$
I?8OB7;nfbeh[h J^[ ceZkb[ i[hl[i \eh [nfbeh_d] j^[ ekjfkji YWbYkbWj[Z
Xo j^[Æ9WbYkbWjehÇ ceZkb[ _d _dZ_l_ZkWb f[h_eZi e\ j^[
]hemj^i_ckbWj_ed$8[i_Z[ij^[][d[hWbekjfkjZ_Wbe]k[i"
j^[ ceZkb[ fhel_Z[i j^[ feii_X_b_jo e\ \eh[ij l_ikWb_pW#
j_eded)#:f[hif[Yj_l[XWi[iWdZj^[[nfehje\j^[ijWdZ
)), #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
jel_hjkWbh[Wb_joWdZ_jiikhl[oXoc[Wdie\j^[ÆC7HAE
FEBEÄ):;nfbeh[hÇceZkb[$
I?8OB77dWboij J^[ ceZkb[ fheZkY[i j^[ h[ikbj_d] WdWboi_i \hec j^[
]hemj^i_ckbWj_ed_dj^[j_c[i[h_[i$
I?8OB7@kZ][ J^[ ceZkb[ i[WhY^[i \eh efj_cWb \eh[ij cWdW][c[dj
ijhWj[]_[iki_d]Z[Y_i_edikffehjj[Y^debe]o$
È
$ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSIONS
?cfb[c[djWj_ede\jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi_dj^[\_[bZe\\eh[ijho_il[hoki[\kb
WdZ^Wii[l[hWbWZlWdjW][i$J^[cW_dWZlWdjW][e\j^[ceZ[bi_ij^Wjj^[o[dW#
Xb[l[ho\b[n_Xb[\eh[YWij_d]e\\eh[ijZ[l[befc[dj$7jj^[iWc[j_c["fhe]dei_ih[#
ifedZijeZ_\\[h[dj]hemj^YedZ_j_ediYb_cWj_Y"ie_b"Z_\\[h[djijWdZijhkYjkh[i
[l[d#W][Z" kd[l[d#W][Z" fkh[" c_n[Z" WdZ Z_\\[h[dj cWdW][c[dj jh[Wjc[dji
jof["fem[h"WdZ_dj[hlWbe\j^_dd_d]"Ykjj_d]ÄjhWdifehjj[Y^debe]_[iWdZ_d#
YbkZ[iWm_Z[hWd][e\ekjfkjZWjWfheZkYj_ed"[Yebe]_YWb"WdZ[Yedec_YWbY^Wh#
WYj[h_ij_Yi$ >em[l[h" j^[h[ Wh[ Wbie Z_iWZlWdjW][i$ <eh [nWcfb[" j^[ fheY[ii e\
_cfb[c[djWj_ed_il[hoYecfb_YWj[ZWdZibem$CWdo\eh[ij[hiWh[kdYec\ehjWXb[
ki_d]Yecfb_YWj[ZceZ[biWdZie\jmWh[$?dj[]hWj_ede\j^[ceZ[bi_dje_d\ehcW#
j_edioij[cim_j^i_cfb[ki[h[dl_hedc[djiWdZm_j^Yedd[Yj_edje=?IWff[Whi
jeX[ed[e\j^[feii_X_b_j_[i\ehWiebkj_ed$?\m[e\\[hikY^WjeebjeYkhh[dj\eh#
[ij[hi"j^[oWh[WXb[jeX[Yec[ceh[\Wc_b_Whm_j^j^[ki[e\]hemj^ceZ[biWdZ
X[]_djei[di[j^[WZlWdjW][ie\ki_d]j^[c$?j_id[Y[iiWhojeijWhjj^[fheY[ii
WiieedWifeii_Xb[$IbelWa_W_iWbWdZm_j^ekjWbed]jhWZ_j_ed_dZ[l[bef_d]WdZ
_cfb[c[dj_d]jh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi"m^_Y^^Wi_d\bk[dY[Zj^[Y^e_Y[e\jmeZ_\\[h#
[djWffheWY^[i$
J^[\_hijWffheWY^_iceZ_\_YWj_ede\j^[I?BL7($(]hemj^i_ckbWjeh\ehIbe#
lWa_WdYedZ_j_ediXoYWb_XhWj_ede\jh[[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj"\ebbem[Z
Xo_dj[]hWj_ed_dje\eh[ijho_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci$J^[YWb_XhWj[ZceZ[bI?BL7IA
_ij^[h[ikbj$9Wb_XhWj_edmWif[h\ehc[Zki_d]ZWjW\hecf[hcWd[djced_jeh_d]
fbeji beYWj[Z Wbb el[h IbelWa_W$ H[f[Wj[Z c[Wikh[c[dji ^Wl[ X[[d kj_b_p[Z$ J^[
ceZ[bmWiYedd[Yj[Zje\eh[ij_dl[djehoZWjWm_j^I?BL7CWdW][hie\jmWh[WdZ
_dj[]hWj[Z_djej^[_d\ehcWj_edioij[ci=EB;CWdZB[i>?I$7ZlWdjW][ie\j^[
iebkj_edWh[0
Ä l[ho \Wij _cfb[c[djWj_ed e\ j^[ ceZ[b" m^_Y^ ^Wi cWZ[ _j feii_Xb[ je el[h#
Yec[j^[^WdZ_YWfe\Wi^ehjjhWZ_j_ed_djh[[]hemj^ceZ[bb_d]1
Ä j^[feii_X_b_joe\_cc[Z_Wj[kj_b_pWj_ed_d\_[bZ\eh[ijho$M[^Wl[Wbh[WZoX[#
]kdj[ijhkdi_di[b[Yj[Z\eh[ijZ_ijh_YjiWdZ[ijWXb_i^[ZWZ[cel[hi_ededj^[
?dj[hd[j1
Ä j^[feii_X_b_joe\j[ij_d]j^[ceZ[bi\ehefj_c_pWj_ede\\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$
M[^Wl[Wbh[WZofh[fWh[Zc[j^eZebe]o\ehckbj_Yh_j[h_WbifWj_WbZ[Y_i_edikf#
fehj<WXh_aW(&&)X1IeZja[[jWb$(&&*$
È $ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSIONS ))-
:_iWZlWdjW][iWh[0
Ä j^[[n_ij[dY[e\X_Wi[i_djh[[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^$M[^Wl[^WZjeh[#
cel[j^[c_dZ_h[YjboXoYWb_XhWj_ed[gkWj_edi;gi$'+$+WdZ'+$,1
Ä WbWYae\Z_h[Yj_cfb[c[djWj_ede\beYWbX_ec[jh_YiWb]eh_j^cilebkc[[gkW#
j_edi"kd_\ehc^[_]^jYkhl[iWdZ[Yedec_YiceZ[bigkWb_joWiiehjc[dj"YWb#
YkbWj_ed e\ Yeiji WdZ h[jkhdi$M[ ^Wl[ ^WZ je _cfhel_i[ Xo ki_d] [nj[hdWb
fhe]hWckd_ji$9edi[gk[djbom[^Wl[Xhea[dZWjWfheY[ii_d]Yedi_ij[dYoWdZ
fheY[ii_d]j_c[^WiX[[dYkckbWj[Z1
Ä fheXb[cie\_dfkjZWjWWdZZ_Wbe]i\ehZ[\_d_j_ede\Yb_cWj_YWdZie_b\WYjehi$
:_Wbe]iWh[\_n[Zje=[hcWd\eh[ij[Ye#h[]_edi1
Ä _dfkjZWjWWdZZ_Wbe]i\ehZ[\_d_j_ede\jh[[gkWb_joZedej[n_ij$>em[l[h"jh[[
gkWb_jo_id[Y[iiWho\ehIbelWa_WdWiiehjc[djceZ[bi1
Ä Yecfb_YWj[ZWdZWbceij_cfeii_Xb[Z_h[Yjie\jmWh[_cfb[c[djWj_ede\IbelW#
a_WdWb]eh_j^ci\ehj^[ijWdZijhkYjkh[][d[hWjehZ_Wc[j[h\h[gk[dYo\kdY#
j_edi"kd_\ehc^[_]^jYkhl[i$
?dif_j[e\j^[i[Z_iWZlWdjW][i"j^[h[_ij^[kdZ_ifkj[ZWZlWdjW][j^WjYkhh[dj
\eh[ij[hiWh[demWXb[jekj_b_p[W]hemj^i_ckbWjehj^Wj_iYedd[Yj[Zje\eh[ij_d#
l[djehoWdZW=?I$J^_i\[Wjkh[WbbemikijeX[]_dioij[cWj_Y[Z_\_YWj_edWdZ_dij_#
jkj_edWbWZl[hj_i_d]jej^[\eh[ijhoYecckd_jo$8[YWki[j^[ceZ[bZe[idej^Wl[
Wbbj^[d[Y[iiWho_dfkjiWdZekjfkji\ehIbelWa_Wdd[[ZicW_dbo_dj^[Wh[Wie\
Ykjj_d]ÄjhWdifehjj[Y^debe]_[i"Wd[Yedec_YWb[dl_hedc[dj"WdZceZ[bi\ehYWb#
YkbWj_ede\YeijWdZh[jkhdi"j^[ceZ[b_icW_dboedboWffb_YWXb[_dj^[fh[Z_Y#
j_ede\\eh[ijfheZkYj_edm_j^h[]WhZjeZ_\\[h[djj^_dd_d]YedY[fjiWdZi_j[Yed#
Z_j_edi$;l[djkWbbo"m[YWdki[j^[ceZ[b\ehWii[iic[dje\iec[[Yebe]_YWbWi#
f[YjiXoki_d]ijhkYjkhWb_dZ_Y[ie\\[h[ZXoj^[I?BL7IAceZ[b$
M[_d_j_Wj[Zj^[i[YedZWffheWY^fWhWbb[bm_j^j^[\_hijed[$J^[i[YedZWf#
fheWY^W_cijeZ[l[befWjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bj^Wj_i\kbboWZWfj[ZjeIbelWa_WdYed#
Z_j_edi WdZ d[[Zi$M[ \ehckbWj[Z j^[ XWi_Y YedY[fj" Z[l[bef[Z Wb]eh_j^ci" WdZ
Yh[Wj[Zie\jmWh[iebkj_edi$8[YWki[ed[e\j^[ceij_cfehjWdjZ[cWdZimWij^Wj
_d_j_Wb [nf[di[i m[h[ Wi bem Wi feii_Xb[" m[ cW_dbo kj_b_p[Z [n_ij_d] Wb]eh_j^ci
j^Wj m[h[ ][d[hWbbo lWb_Z \eh IbelWa_Wd YedZ_j_edi lebkc[ [gkWj_edi" \h[gk[d#
YoZ_Wc[j[h\kdYj_edi"kd_\ehc^[_]^jYkhl[i"Wiiehjc[djceZ[bi"f[h\ehcWdY[
ijWdZWhZi"o_[bZjWXb[iWdZ[n_ij_d]ZWjWcWj[h_Wbf[hcWd[djh[i[WhY^fbeji"f[h#
cWd[djced_jeh_d]fbeji$J^[ie\jmWh[iebkj_edI?8OB7Ik_j[_ij^[h[ikbje\j^_i
WffheWY^$J^[fhe]hWciebkj_ed_iceZkbWhWdZ_iWZWfj[Zjei_cfb[\kjkh[_c#
fb[c[djWj_ed _dje _d\ehcWj_ed ioij[ci WdZ j^[ \_[bZ e\ \eh[ijho$7ZlWdjW][i e\
j^[iebkj_edWh[0
Ä Z_h[Yj_cfb[c[djWj_ede\IbelWa_WdX_ec[jh_YiceZ[biWdZ[Yedec_YiceZ#
[bi1
Ä _dYbki_ede\IbelWa_WdceZ[bi\ehh[]_edWb_pWj_ede\Yb_cWj_YWdZie_blWbk[i
WdZYedd[Yj_edjeIbelWa_Wd\eh[ij[Ye#h[]_edi1
Ä Z_h[Yjikffehje\Wbbh[gk_h[Z_dfkjZWjW\hec\eh[ij_dl[djehoWdZfheY[ii_d]
XoIbelWa_WdceZ[biWiiehjc[djceZ[biWdZceZ[bi\ehYWbYkbWj_ede\Yeiji
WdZh[jkhdi1
Ä _cfb[c[djWj_ede\X_eZ_l[hi_jo_dZ_Y[ifh[\[hh[Z_dIbelWa_Wd[Yebe]oWii[ii#
c[dj1
)). #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
Ä ief^_ij_YWj[Zikffehj\ehl_ikWb_pWj_ede\i_ckbWj_edh[ikbjiWdZfeii_X_b_j_[i
\eh[nfehjjel_hjkWb\eh[ijijWdZiXol_hjkWbh[Wb_joceZ[bbWd]kW][LHCB
WdZj^[_hZ_ijh_Xkj_edje?dj[hd[j[dl_hedc[dj"
Ä j^[effehjkd_jo\eh_cc[Z_Wj[kiW]["cW_dbo\ehj^[fkhfei[ie\]hemj^i_c#
kbWj_edm_j^ekjfkji\kbbobeYWb_p[Z\ehIbelWa_WWdZIbelWa_Wdd[[Zi$M[^Wl[
Wbh[WZo _d_j_Wj[Z j^[ _cfb[c[djWj_ed fheY[ii Xo ki_d] j^[ fhe]hWc Wi Wd [#
b[Whd_d]jeebWjj^[J[Y^d_YWbKd_l[hi_jo_dPleb[dWdZXoe\\[h_d]WZ[cel[h#
i_ededj^[?dj[hd[j$
:_iWZlWdjW][iWh[0
Ä kj_b_pWj_ede\WYecf[j_j_edceZ[b"cehjWb_joceZ[b"WdZceZ[be\i[di_j_l_#
jojeYb_cWj_YWdZie_b[dl_hedc[djWb\WYjehi"m^_Y^^Wl[dejX[[dfWhWc[j[h#
_p[ZXoIbelWa_Wd[nf[h_c[djWbZWjW1
Ä \ehj^[j_c[X[_d]"_dj[]hWj_ed_dje=?IZe[idej[n_ij$
8[YWki[j^[\_hijl[hi_ede\j^[I?8OB7ceZ[bmWifWhj_Wbbo_cfb[c[dj[ZXo
ceZ[bifWhWc[j[h_p[Zekji_Z[e\IbelWa_W"m[^Wl[_d_j_Wj[Z_dj[di_l[d[]ej_Wj_ed
m_j^j^[C_d_ijhoe\7]h_Ykbjkh[e\j^[IbelWaH[fkXb_YYedY[hd_d]\_dWdY_Wbikf#
fehj\ehd[mZWjWYebb[Yj_ed$J^[h[ikbje\j^[d[]ej_Wj_edi_iWc[j^eZebe]o\ehW
d[mdWj_edWb\eh[ij_dl[djeho"m^[h[_dl[djehofbejiWh[beYWj[ZedW**acd[j#
meha$J^[Yedj_dkeki_dl[djehoYecc[dY[Zed'7fh_b(&&+$J^[c[j^eZebe]o_i
fh[fWh[Zm_j^j^[_dj[dj_ede\_dYbkZ_d]Wbbd[Y[iiWhoZWjW\ehfWhWc[j[h_pWj_ed"
_dYbkZ_d]YhemdfWhWc[j[hiWdZjh[[YeehZ_dWj[i$9ecfh[^[di_l[ZWjWcWj[h_Wb
m_bbX[WlW_bWXb[W\j[hj^[\_hijh[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[dji$M[m_bbX[WXb[jeZ[h_l[
d[mfWhWc[j[hiWdZWb]eh_j^cicW_dbo\ehj^[_dYh[c[djceZ[b"j^[Yecf[j_j_ed
ceZ[b"WdZj^[cehjWb_joceZ[b$KfZWj_d]j^[ceZ[bim_bbX[i_cfb["X[YWki[m[
m_bbedboh[fbWY[iec[Ye[\\_Y_[djiWdZ[gkWj_edi_dekhiekhY[YeZ[m^_Y^Ze[i
dej_d\bk[dY[j^[ki[h[dl_hedc[dje\j^[ie\jmWh[$7jj^[iWc[j_c["j^[I?BL7
IA]hemj^i_ckbWjehm_bbX[h[fbWY[ZXoI?8OB7Ik_j[ie\jmWh[_dj^[_d\ehcW#
j_edioij[ci=EB;CWdZB[i>?I$
J^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\ jh[[ ]hemj^ ceZ[bi _i W Z_\\_Ykbj WdZ ed]e_d] fheY[ii$
J^[ d[nj ij[f _d j^[ fheY[ii _i fWhWc[j[h_pWj_ed e\ j^[ ceZ[b ki_d] d[m Ye[\#
\_Y_[dji"m^_Y^m_bbX[Z[h_l[Z\hecj^[d[mdWj_edWb\eh[ij_dl[djeho$J^[d"j^[
ceZ[bckijX[j[ij[Z\ehWYYkhWYoWdZfh[Y_i_edXoYecfWh_d]h[Wb]hemj^ZWjW
m_j^i_ckbWj[ZlWbk[i$D[mceZ[bb_d]feii_X_b_j_[idWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_edceZ[bi"
ceZ[bie\ifWj_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_edWdZZ[l[befc[dje\jh[[gkWb_jo"WdZceZ[bie\jh[[
ZWcW][Wh_i[WdZYWdX[Z[l[bef[Z_dj^[\kjkh[$D[l[hj^[b[ii"m[YWdiWoj^Wjm[
^Wl[Wbh[WZoikYY[ii\kbbo_d_j_Wj[Zj^[fheY[iie\_cfb[c[djWj_ede\jh[[]hemj^
ceZ[bi_dje\eh[ijcWdW][c[djWdZ\eh[ij[ZkYWj_ed_dIbelWa_W$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ4HISÈWORKÈWASÈFUNDEDÈBYÈTHEÈ%5È0ROJECTÈ)4-È)MPLEMENTINGÈ4REEÈ'ROWTHÈ
-ODELSÈASÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ4OOLS ÈPROJECTÈNUMBERÈ1,24È
È4HANKSÈTOÈ0ROFÈ$RÈ
(ASENAUERÈFORÈLEADINGÈANDÈMANAGINGÈ0ROJECTÈ)4-È4HANKSÈALSOÈTOÈ0ROFÈ$RÈ0RETZSCHÈFORÈPERMISSI
ONÈTOÈUTILIZEÈTHEÈMODELÈ3),6!ÈÈASÈBACKGROUNDÈINFORMATIONÈFORÈ3LOVAKIANÈMODELÈDEVELOPMENTÈ
&INALLYÈTHANKSÈAREÈEXTENDEDÈTOÈRESEARCHERSÈANDÈPROGRAMMERSÈWHOÈPARTICIPATEDÈINÈTHEÈPROJECTÈ
0ROFÈ$RÈÆMELKOÈ$RÈ-ERGANIÒÈANDÈ$IPLÈ)NGÈ.EMEC
2EFERENCES ))/
2EFERENCES
"ACHMANNÈ -È È )NDIZESÈ ZURÈ %RFASSUNGÈ DERÈ +ONKURRENZÈ VONÈ %INZELBËUMENÈ -ETHODISCHEÈ
5NTERSUCHUNGÈINÈ"ERGMISCHWËLDERNÈ&ORSTLÈ&ORSCHUNGSBERÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
#LARKÈ0*È%VANSÈ&#È È$ISTANCEÈTOÈNEARESTÈNEIGHBORÈASÈAÈMEASUREÈOFÈSPATIALÈRELATIONSHIPSÈINÈ
POPULATIONSÈ%COLOGYÈÈnÈ
#ROOKSTONÈ .,È 3TAGEÈ !2È È 0ERCENTÈ CANOPYÈ COVERÈ ANDÈ STANDÈ STRUCTUREÈ STATISTICSÈ FROMÈ THEÈ
&ORESTÈ6EGETATIONÈ3IMULATORÈ'ENÈ4ECHÈ2EPÈ2-23
'42
È53È$EPARTMENTÈOFÈ!GRICULTUREÈ
&ORESTÈ3ERVICEÈ2OCKYÈ-OUNTAINÈ2ESEARCHÈ3TATIONÈ/GDENÈ54ÈÈPP
$È URSKâÈ*È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDERÈ!BSTERBEPROZESSEÈINÈ2EIN
ÈUNDÈ-ISCHBESTËNDENÈAUSÈ&ICHTEÈ
UNDÈ"UCHEÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈ ÈnÈ
$È URSKâÈ*È0RETZSCHÈ(È+AHNÈ-È È-ODELLHALFEÈ.ACHBILDUNGÈDERÈ-ORTALITËTÈVONÈ&ICHTEÈUNDÈ
"UCHEÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ*AGDZÈ ÈnÈ
&ABRIKAÈ -È A È "UDOVANIEÈ MODERNÏHOÈ INFORMAÒNÏHOÈ SYSTÏMUÈ PREÈ ÞÒELYÈ INVENTARIZÉCIEÈ AÈ
MONITOROVANIAÈSTAVUÈLESAÈ)NÈ0ROCÈ)NTÈ3YMPÈ.OVÏÈTRENDYÈVÈZISTOVANÓÈAÈMONITOROVANÓÈSTAVUÈ
LESAÈ0OLANAÈPPÈÈnÈ
&ABRIKAÈ-ÈB È,ESNÓCKYÈINFORMAÒNâÈSYSTÏMÈ,ES()3È)NÈ0ROCÈ#ONFÈ.OVÏÈMETØDYÈAÈTECHNIKYÈ
PREÈMERANIEÈLESAÈAÈDREVAvÈ:VOLENÈPPÈ6)
ÈnÈ6)
&ABRIKAÈ -È A È 6IRTUALÈ FORESTÈ STANDÈ ASÈ AÈ COMPONENTÈ OFÈ SOPHISTICATEDÈ FORESTRYÈ EDUCATIONALÈ
SYSTEMSÈ*È&ORÈ3CIÈ ÈnÈ
&ABRIKAÈ-ÈB È-ULTIFUNCTIONALÈOPTIMISATIONÈOFÈSTANDÈTENDINGÈBYÈ3$33ÈANDÈGROWTHÈMODEL
LINGÈ)NÈ0ROCÈ)5&2/È3YMPÈ-ANAGEMENTÈANDÈ-ODELLINGÈ-ULTIFUNCTIONALÈ&ORESTÈ%NTERPRISESÈ
ANDÈ0ROPERTIESÈ3OPRONÈ(UNGARYÈPPÈÈnÈ
&àLDNERÈ+È È3TRUKTURBESCHREIBUNGÈINÈ-ISCHBESTËNDENÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈÈnÈ
(ALAJÈ *È È 4ABULKYÈ JEDNOTNâCHÈ HMOTOVâCHÈ KRIVIEKÈ PREÈ URÒOVANIEÈ HMOTYÈ PORASTOVÈ 360,È
"RATISLAVAÈÈPP
(ALAJÈ *È È -ATEMATICKO
ÝTATISTICKâÈ PRIESKUMÈ HRÞBKOVEJÈ ÝTRUKTÞRYÈ SLOVENSKâCHÈ PORASTOVÈ
,ESNÓCKYÈÒASOPISÈ ÈnÈ
(ALAJÈ*È È6âÝKOVâÈRASTÈAÈÝTRUKTÞRAÈPORASTOVÈ6EDAÈ"RATISLAVAÈÈPP
(ALAJÈ*ÈEHÉKÈ*È È6YHOTOVENIEÈRASTOVâCHÈTABULIEKÈHLAVNâCHÈDREVÓNÈÄ332È,ESNÓCKEÈÝTÞDIEÈ
ÈPP
(ALAJÈ*È0ETRÉÝÈ2ȽEHÉKÈ*È'RÏKÈ*È0ÉNEKÈ&È È2ASTOVÏÈTABULKYÈHLAVNâCHÈDREVÓNÈÄ332È0RÓRODAÈ
"RATISLAVAÈÈPP
(ILLÈ -/È È $IVERSITYÈ ANDÈ EVENNESSÈ AÈ UNIFYINGÈ NOTATIONÈ ANDÈ ITSÈ CONSEQUENSESÈ %COLOGYÈ
ÈnÈ
*AEHNEÈ3È$OHRENBUSCHÈ!È È%INÈ6ERFAHRENÈZURÈ"EURTEILUNGÈDERÈ"ESTANDESDIVERSITËTÈ&ORST
WISSENSCHAFTLÈ#ENTRALBLATTÈÈnÈ
+AHNÈ-È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDERÈ(ÚHENENTWICKLUNGÈAUSGEWËHLTERÈ"AUMARTENÈINÈ!BHËNGIGKEITÈ
VOMÈ3TANDORTÈ&ORSTLÈ&ORSCHUNGSBERÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
+AHNÈ-È È$IEÈ&UZZYÈ,OGIKÈBASIERTEÈ-ODELLIERUNGÈVONÈ$URCHFORSTUNGSEINGRIFFENÈ!LLGÈ&ORSTÈ
*AGDZÈ ÈnÈ
+ORENEKÈ*È È4AXONOMICKâÈAÈEKOLOGICKâÈVâSKUMÈDUBOVâCHÈPORASTOVÈVÈÝTIAVNICKOMÈPOHORÓÈ
:AVEREÒNÉÈSPRÉVA È6âSKUMNâÈÞSTAVÈLESNÏHOÈHOSPODÉRSTVAÈ:VOLENÈÈPP
+ORPELÈÆÈ È6PLYVÈZÉKLADNâCHÈDRUHOVÈPREBIEROKÈNAÈÝTRUKTÞRUÈAÈPRODUKCIUÈDUBOVâCHÈPORAS
TOVÈVÈOBLASTIÈh+OKOÝOVSKÏHOÈDUBAvÈ:BORNÓKÈVEDECKâCHÈPRÉCÈ6Æ,$È:VOLENÈ ÈnÈ
+ORPELÈ ÆÈ È /BNOVAÈ AÈ VâCHOVAÈ ZMIEÝANâCHÈ DUBOVO
BUKOVâCHÈ PORASTOVÈ VOÈ VZTAHUÈ KÈ
ÝTRUKTÞREÈAÈRASTOVâMÈSCHOPNOSTIAMÈ:PRÈ,ESNÈ6âZKUMUÈ ÈnÈ
)*& #(!04%2È ?cfb[c[dj_d]Jh[[=hemj^CeZ[bi_dIbelWa_W
-ARGALEFÈ2È È)NFORMATIONÈTHEORYÈINÈECOLOGYÈ'ENÈ3YSTÈÈnÈ
-C'AUGHEYÈ2*È È6ISUALIZINGÈFORESTÈSTANDÈDYNAMICSÈUSINGÈTHEÈSTANDÈVISUALIZATIONÈSYSTEMÈ
)NÈ0ROCÈ!#3-!3023È!NNUÈ#ONVENTIONÈANDÈ%XPOSITIONÈ3EATTLEÈVOLÈÈ!MERICANÈ3OCIETYÈFORÈ
0HOTOGRAMMETRYÈANDÈ2EMOTEÈ3ENSINGÈ"ETHESDAÈPPÈÈnÈ
-ENHINICKÈ#&È È!ÈCOMPARISONÈOFÈSOMEÈSPECIESÈÈnÈÈINDIVIDUALSÈDIVERSITYÈINDICESÈAPPPLIEDÈTOÈ
SAMPLESÈOFÈFIELDÈINSECTSÈ%COLOGYÈÈnÈ
0A|REZÈ*È È:PRÉVAÈOÈZALOäENÓÈAÈPRVNÓMÈMÖENÓÈVâZKUMNâCHÈPLOCHÈPROBÓRKOVâCHÈ)ÈAÈ))ÈSÏRIEÈ
ZALOäENâCHÈVEÈSMRKOVâCHÈPOROSTECHÈ:PRÈ,ESNÈ6âZKUMUÈ ÈnÈ
0ETRÉÝÈ 2È .OCIARÈ 6È È .OVÏÈ SORTIMENTAÒNÏÈ TABU¬KYÈ HLAVNâCHÈ LISTNATâCHÈ DREVÓNÈ ,ESNÓCKYÈ
ÒASOPISÈ ÈnÈ
0ETRÉÝÈ2È.OCIARÈ6È È.OVÏÈSORTIMENTAÒNÏÈTABU¬KYÈHLAVNâCHÈIHLIÒNATâCHÈDREVÓNÈ,ESNÓCKYÈ
ÒASOPISÈ ÈnÈ
0ETRÉÝÈ2È0AJTÓKÈ*È È3ÞSTAVAÈÒESKO
SLOVENSKâCHÈOBJEMOVâCHÈTABULIEKÈDREVÓNÈ,ESNÓCKYÈÒASO
PISÈROÒNÓKÈ ÈnÈ
0IELOUÈ%#È È%COLOGICALÈDIVERSITYÈ7ILEYÈ.EWÈ9ORK
0RETZSCHÈ(È È+ONZEPTIONÈUNDÈ+ONSTRUKTIONÈVONÈ7UCHSMODELLENÈFàRÈ2EIN
ÈUNDÈ-ISCHBE
STËNDEÈ&ORSTLÈ&ORSCHUNGSBERÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ(È È!NALYSEÈUNDÈ2EPRODUKTIONÈRËUMLICHERÈ"ESTANDESSTRUKTURENÈ"DÈÈ6ERSU
CHEÈMITÈDEMÈ3TRUKTURGENERATORÈ3425'%.È3CHRIFTENÈAUSÈDERÈ&ORSTLICHENÈ&AKULTËTÈDERÈ5NI
VERSITËTÈ'ÚTTINGENÈUNDÈDERÈ.IEDERSËCHSISCHENÈ&ORSTLICHENÈ6ERSUCHSANSTALTÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ(È È-ODELLIERUNGÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSÈ0AREYÈ"ERLINÈÈPP
0RETZSCHÈ (È +AHNÈ -È È +ONZEPTIONÈ UNDÈ +ONSTRUKTIONÈ DESÈ 7UCHSMODELLSÈ 3),6!È ÈÈ
nÈ È -ETHODISCHEÈ 'RUNDLAGENÈ 4EILÈ È !BSCHLUSSBERICHTÈ 0ROJEKTÈ 7È È ,UDWIGÈ -AXIMILIANSÈ
5NIVERSITËTÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
2EINEKEÈ,(È È0ERFECTINGÈAÈSTANDÈDENSITYÈINDEXÈFORÈEVEN
AGEDÈFORESTSÈ*È!GRICÈ2ESÈ È
nÈ
2ÏHÈ *È È 6âCHOVAÈ PORASTOVÈ DUBAÈ ÒERVENÏHOÈ 1UERCUSÈ RUBRAÈ , È VÈ PODMIENKACHÈ JUäNÏHOÈ
3LOVENSKAÈ(ABILITAÒNÉÈDIZERTÉCIA È6Æ,$È:VOLENÈÈPP
3ABOLÈ&È È2ASTÈAÈPRÓRASTOKÈBUÒÓNÈVÈOBLASTIÈÆARIÝSKEJÈVRCHOVINYÈ+ANDIDÉTSKAÈDIZERTÉCIA È,&È
6Æ,$È:VOLENÈÈPP
ÆEBÓKÈ ,È È 3TANOVENIEÈ INTENZITYÈ PREBIEROKÈ NAÈ PODKLADEÈ POKUSNâCHÈ PLÙCHÈ VÈ BUÒINÉCHÈ
VâCHODNÏHOÈ3LOVENSKAÈ,ESNÓCKYÈÒASOPISÈ ÈnÈ
3EIFERTÈ3È È$REIDIMENSIONALEÈ6ISUALISIERUNGÈDESÈ7ALDWACHSTUMSÈ$IPLOMARBEITÈIMÈ&ACHBE
REICHÈ)NFORMATIKÈDERÈ&ACHHOCHSCHULEÈ-àNCHENÈINÈ:USAMMENARBEITÈMITÈDEMÈ,EHRSTUHLÈFàRÈ
7ALDWACHSTUMSKUNDEÈDERÈ,UDWIG
-AXIMILLIANS
5NIVERSITËTÈ-àNCHENÈ-àNCHENÈÈPP
3HANNONÈ#%È È!ÈMATHEMATICALÈTHEORYÈOFÈCOMMUNICATIONSÈ"ELLÈ3YSTÈ4ECHÈ*ÈÈnÈ
3IMPSONÈ(È È-EASUREMENTÈOFÈDIVERSITYÈ.ATUREÈÈÈPP
3ODTKEÈ2È3CHMIDTÈ-È&ABRIKAÈ-È.AGELÈ*ȽURSKâÈ*È0RETZSCHÈ(È È!NWENDUNGÈUNDÈ%INSATZÈ
VONÈ %INZELBAUMMODELLENÈ ALSÈ +OMPONENTENÈ VONÈ ENTSCHEIDUNGSUNTERSTàTZENDENÈ 3YSTE
MENÈFàRÈDIEÈSTRATEGISCHEÈ&ORSTBETRIEBSPLANUNGÈ&ORSTARCHIVÈÈnÈ
ÆMELKOÈ ÆÈ 0ÉNEKÈ &È :ANVITÈ "È È -ATEMATICKÉÈ FORMULÉCIAÈ SYSTÏMUÈ JEDNOTNâCHÈ VâÝKOVâCHÈ
KRIVIEKÈROVNOVEKâCHÈPORASTOVÈ332È!CTAÈ&ACULTATISÈ&ORESTALISÈ:VOLENÈÈnÈ
ÆVECÈ-È:APLETALÈ3È-IKAÈ È0ROJEKTÈCELOPLOÝNÏHOÈMONITOROVACIEHOÈSYSTÏMUÈ,ESOPROJEKTÈ
:VOLEN
6AZÞRÈ -È È 0RODUKÒNÏÈ VYHODNOTENIEÈ BUKAÈ /NDAVSKEJÈ VRCHOVINYÈ PODLAÈ LESNâCHÈ VEGE
TAÒNâCHÈSTUPÛOVÈNAÈZÉKLADEÈDENDROMETRICKâCHÈMERANÓÈ·(·,È:ÉVEREÒNÉÈPRÉCAÈPOSTRGRA
DUÉLNEHOÈÝTÞDIA È6Æ,$È:VOLEN
2EFERENCES )*'
6YSKOTÈ-È È6âSLEDKYÈKOMPARATIVNÓHOÈVâZKUMUÈÞROVÛOVÏÈAÈPODÞROVÛOVÏÈPROBÓRKYÈUÈDUBUÈ
LETNÓHOÈ1UERCUSÈROBURÈ, ÈZAÈOBDOBÓÈÈnÈÈ,ESNÓCKYÈÒASOPISÈ ÈnÈ
6YSKOTÈ-È È+OMPARACEÈRáZNâCHÈMETODÈPROBÓREKÈVEÈSMRKUÈNAÈÆUMAVÖÈ3BORNÓKÈ6YSOKÏÈÝKOLYÈ
ZEMÖDÖLSKÏÈ"RNOÈ ÈnÈ
#(!04%2È )*)
#ONVERSIONÈOFÈ.ORWAYÈ3PRUCEÈ!È#ASEÈ
3TUDYÈINÈ$ENMARKÈ"ASEDÈONÈ3ILVICULTURALÈ
3CENARIOÈ-ODELLING
7dZh[Wi8hkdd[h'"AWjh_d[>W^d("F[j[h8_X[h)"
@[diF[j[hIaeli]WWhZ*
!BSTRACTÈ 4HEÈ AIMÈ OFÈ THISÈ STUDYÈ WASÈ TOÈ EVALUATEÈ SILVICULTURALÈ ALTERNATIVESÈ FORÈ CONVERSIONÈ
OFÈSECONDARYÈPLANTATIONSÈOFÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈ;0ICEAÈABIESÈ, È+ARST=ÈINÈ$ENMARKÈ4OÈENABLEÈ
SIMULATIONSÈTHATÈCOULDÈPOSSIBLYÈAIDÈDECISIONÈMAKINGÈFORÈPOLICYÈASÈWELLÈASÈFORÈFORESTRYÈPRAC
TICEÈTHEÈ'ERMANÈGROWTHÈSIMULATORÈ3),6!ÈWASÈCALIBRATEDÈFORÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈANDÈBEECHÈINÈ
$ENMARKÈ#ALIBRATIONÈCOMPRISEDÈCHANGESÈTOÈTHEÈMAINÈDRIVINGÈFUNCTIONSÈOFÈ3),6!ÈSUCHÈASÈ
THEÈHEIGHTÈANDÈTHEÈDIAMETERÈGROWTHÈPOTENTIALSÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈ4HEÈCALIBRATEDÈMODELÈ
WASÈEVALUATEDÈAGAINSTÈOBSERVEDÈGROWTHÈFORÈAÈNUMBERÈOFÈSAMPLEÈPLOTSÈ3CENARIOSÈFORÈDIF
FERENTÈ METHODSÈ FORÈ CONVERSIONÈ OFÈ .ORWAYÈ SPRUCEÈ ONÈ FORMERÈ HEATHLANDÈ WEREÈ CALCULATEDÈ
ANDÈANALYSEDÈINCLUDINGÈUNIFORMÈSHELTERWOODÈIRREGULARÈSHELTERWOODÈANDÈTARGETÈDIAMETERÈ
HARVESTÈ4HEÈPREDICTIONSÈOFÈGROWTHÈANDÈREGENERATIONÈDIDÈNOTÈSHOWÈANYÈLIMITATIONSÈTOÈAÈSUC
CESSFULÈCONVERSIONÈBUTÈRESULTEDÈINÈDIFFERENTÈGROWTHÈPATTERNSÈANDÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITIONS
È
)NTRODUCTION
J^[ W_c e\ j^_i ijkZo mWi je [lWbkWj[ i_bl_YkbjkhWb Wbj[hdWj_l[i \eh Yedl[h#
i_ede\i[YedZWhofbWdjWj_edie\DehmWoifhkY[QF_Y[WWX_[iB$AWhij$S_d:[d#
cWha$DehmWoifhkY[_iYkhh[djboj^[cW_dYecc[hY_Wbj_cX[hif[Y_[i$Edce#
hW_d[ie_bi_d[Wij[hdfWhjie\j^[Yekdjho"j^[h[Wh[i[l[hWb_cc[Z_Wj[Wbj[hdWj_l[i
je[l[d#W][ZDehmWoifhkY[WdZh[][d[hWj_edhWh[bofei[icW`ehfheXb[ci$Ed
iWdZoie_bi_dj^[m[ij"DehmWoifhkY[_iki[Z[nj[di_l[bo_dfbWdjWj_edie\\_hij
WdZi[YedZ][d[hWj_ed\eh[ijed\ehc[h^[Wj^bWdZ$>[h["jh[[]hemj^_i^Wcf[h[Z
Xo ^Whi^ i_j[ YedZ_j_edi _d\[hj_b[ iWdZ" bWYa e\ ^kcki" ijhed] m_dZi" bWj[ \heij"
WdZi[l[h[Xhemi_d]WdZ_j_iZ_\\_Ykbjje[ijWXb_i^Wbj[hdWj_l[\eh[ijjof[i$?dj^_i
ijkZom[\eYkicW_dboedj^[i[bWjj[hWh[Wi$
' [#cW_b0WdZh[Wi$Xhkdd[h6kcX$de:[fWhjc[dje\;Yebe]oWdZDWjkhWbH[iekhY[CWdW][#
c[dj"Dehm[]_WdKd_l[hi_joe\B_\[IY_[dY[i"F$E$8en+&&)"'*)(vi"DehmWo
("* :Wd_i^9[djh[\eh<eh[ij"BWdZiYWf[WdZFbWdd_d]"ALB">´hi^ebcAed][l[`''"(/-&>´h#
i^ebc":[dcWha
) 9^W_he\<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY["J[Y^d_iY^[Kd_l[hi_jjCdY^[d"7c>eY^Wd][h')".+)+*<h[#
_i_d]"=[hcWdo
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
)** #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
9edl[hi_ede\ifhkY[edWbWh][hiYWb[^WiX[[dWh[Y[djkdZ[hjWa_d]_d:[d#
cWha"WdZedbo\[m\_[bZ[nf[h_c[dji^Wl[X[[dYWhh_[ZekjjeijkZojh[[]hemj^
WdZijWdZZodWc_Yi_dh[bWj_edjei_bl_YkbjkhWbfhWYj_Y[iIaeli]WWhZ[jWb$(&&&1
8hkdd[h[jWb$(&&)$Je[dWXb[i_ckbWj_edij^WjYekbZfeii_XboW_ZZ[Y_i_edcWa#
_d]\ehfeb_YoWim[bbWi\eh\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y["j^[=[hcWd]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?B#
L7Fh[jpiY^WdZAW^d'//.1Fh[jpiY^(&&'1Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&(mWiYWb_XhWj[Zje
cWjY^beYWb\eh[ij]hemj^YedZ_j_edi$Jefhef[hbo_dYbkZ[j^[oekd]jh[[ie\j^[
h[][d[hWj_ed"I?BL7h[Y[_l[Z_dfkj\hecj^[h[][d[hWj_edi_ckbWjehH[][d[hWjeh
8hkdd[h(&&)"m^_Y^mWiWbieYWb_XhWj[Z\ehbeYWbYedZ_j_edi$
J^_iijkZoh[fehjij^[YWb_XhWj_ede\I?BL7\eh:[dcWha"WceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed"
WdZiY[dWh_eWdWboi[i\ehYedl[hi_ede\DehmWoifhkY[ed\ehc[h^[Wj^bWdZ$
È
4HEÈ3),6!È-ODEL
J^[\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjehI?BL7Fh[jpiY^WdZAW^d'//.1Fh[jpiY^(&&'1
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&("Z[l[bef[ZWjj^[9^W_he\<eh[ijO_[bZIY_[dY[e\j^[J[Y^d_#
YWbKd_l[hi_joe\Ckd_Y^"_iWYecfh[^[di_l[[nWcfb[e\WifWj_Wbbo[nfb_Y_j_dZ_#
l_ZkWb#jh[[]hemj^ceZ[b"m^_Y^Yel[hi\eh[ijjof[ij^WjWbieeYYkh_d:[dcWha$
I?BL7_iXWi[ZedWie#YWbb[Zfej[dj_Wb#ceZ_\_[hYedY[fj"kdZ[hm^_Y^fej[dj_Wb
]hemj^_iceZ[bb[ZWdZikXi[gk[djboceZ_\_[ZWYYehZ_d]je"\eh[nWcfb["Yecf[#
j_j_ed$Fej[dj_Wb]hemj^_i^[h[Z[\_d[ZWij^[cWn_ckceXi[hl[Z_dekh[nf[h_#
c[dji$9edi[gk[djbo"ekh_dZ_YWjehe\fej[dj_Wb]hemj^cWoX[_d\bk[dY[ZXoj^_d#
d_d]WdZcWodejWbmWoiX[\h[[e\Yecf[j_j_ed$
8Wi_YWbbo" I?BL7 _i YWb_XhWj[Z ed jhWZ_j_edWb \eh[ij X_ec[jh_Yi ZWjW h[\b[Yj_d]
jh[[i_p[iWdZijWdZijhkYjkh["WdZedj^[Yehh[bWj_edX[jm[[d\eh[ij]hemj^WdZ
i_j[ lWh_WXb[i h[\b[Yj_d] [dl_hedc[djWb YedZ_j_edi$ <eh fhWYj_YWb ki[ WdZ _d j^[
WXi[dY[e\bed]#j[hceXi[hlWj_ediedbeYWb\eh[ij]hemj^"I?BL7_iZh_l[dXoi_j[
lWh_WXb[i$?\bed]#j[hceXi[hlWj_edie\]hemj^Wh[WlW_bWXb[beYWbbo"j^[i[cWoX[
ki[ZZ_h[Yjboje_cfhel[ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edi$
7i W Z[i_hWXb[ \[Wjkh[" I?BL7 _dYehfehWj[i W j^h[[#Z_c[di_edWb Yecf[j_j_ed
_dZ[n"m^_Y^_dj^[Ykhh[djl[hi_ed($(^WiX[[di_cfb_\_[ZjeYecX_d[jmejme#
Z_c[di_edWb[b[c[dji0j^[h[bWj_edX[jm[[dYhemd_dj[hi[Yj_edWh[Wie\Yecf[j#
_d]jh[[i"WdZj^[h[bWj_edi^_fX[jm[[dj^[^[_]^jie\Yecf[j_jehi$7j^h[[#Z_c[d#
i_edWbi[WhY^Wb]eh_j^c_iki[Zje_Z[dj_\ofej[dj_WbYecf[j_jehi$
È
#ALIBRATIONÈOFÈ3),6!ÈFORÈ$ENMARK
È
#ALIBRATIONÈ3TRATEGY
<eh j^[ fkhfei[ e\ j^_i ijkZo m[ YWb_XhWj[Z I?BL7 \eh DehmWo ifhkY[ WdZ
X[[Y^_d:[dcWha$:k[jeb_c_jWj_edi_dWlW_bWXb[[nf[h_c[djWbZWjW"j^[YWb_XhW#
j_edYecfh_i[Zedbo[l[d#W][Zcedeif[Y_\_YijWdZiWdZedboiec[e\j^[cW_d
È #ALIBRATIONÈOFÈ3),6!ÈFORÈ$ENMARK )*+
Zh_l_d]\kdYj_edie\I?BL7"ikY^Wij^[^[_]^jWdZj^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_Wbi
e\ _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[i$ J^[ Yecf[j_j_ed ceZ[b" _dlebl_d] Yhemd b[d]j^ WdZ Yhemd
m_Zj^"mWidejYWb_XhWj[Zif[Y_\_YWbbo"WdZZk[jej^[YeccedbofhWYj_i[Z^[Wlo
j^_dd_d]"cehjWb_jomWidejYedi_Z[h[Z$
J^hek]^ekjceZ[bYWb_XhWj_edm[jh_[ZdejjeceZ_\oj^[ijhkYjkh[e\XWi_Y
h[bWj_edi^_fim_j^_dj^[ceZ[b"_dYbkZ_d]jh[[WdZijWdZ]hemj^"_dj[h#jh[[Yec#
f[j_j_ed"WdZj^[h[bWj_edX[jm[[dX_ec[jh_YWbY^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWdZi_j[lWh_WXb[i$
M[j^kih[boedj^[Wiikcfj_edj^Wjj^[[\\[Yjie\i_bl_Ykbjkh[WdZ[\\[Yjie\X[#
jm[[d#jh[[_dj[hWYj_edi"Yedi_Z[h[Z_dh[bWj_edjei_j[YedZ_j_ediWdZijWdZijhkY#
jkh["Wh[i_c_bWh\eh:[dcWhaWdZj^[h[]_ed\ehm^_Y^j^[i[ceZ[bYecfed[dji
m[h[eh_]_dWbboYWb_XhWj[Z$
7bj^ek]^ _d j^_i ijkZo I?BL7 m_bb X[ ki[Z edbo \eh iY[dWh_e ceZ[bb_d] e\
ifhkY[Yedl[hi_eded\ehc[h^[Wj^bWdZ"m[Z[Y_Z[ZjeYWb_XhWj[j^[ceZ[b\ehj^[
m^eb[e\:[dcWha$J^_imWiZed[je\kbbokj_b_i[j^[ZWjWfej[dj_Wb"\eh[nWcfb[
_dj[hcie\i_bl_YkbjkhWb[\\[YjiedijWdZ]hemj^"WdZje[dikh[j^WjI?BL7mekbZ
YWfjkh[j^[hWd][e\WdZj^[]hWZ_[dji_di_j[YedZ_j_edim_j^_d:[dcWha$
EkhYWb_XhWj_ed_dYbkZ[i[gkWj_edi\ehj^[i_j[#if[Y_\_Y^[_]^j]hemj^fej[d#
j_WbWdZj^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_Wb$
È
(EIGHTÈ'ROWTHÈ0OTENTIAL
I?BL7ceZ[bij^[^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wbki_d]j^[9^WfcWd#H_Y^WhZi\kdY#
j_ed0
>'&&37Õ'Ä[nfÄaÕJf ;g$',$'
m^[h[>'&&_ij^[Wl[hW][^[_]^je\j^['&&j^_Ya[ijjh[[if[h^[YjWh["J_iijWdZ
W][_do[Whi"7_ij^[Wiocfjej[_dc[jh[i"WdZaWdZfWh[i^Wf[fWhWc[j[hi$
9Wb_XhWj_ed e\ i_j[ Ä ]hemj^ h[bWj_edi^_fi _d I?BL7 h[gk_h[i _d\ehcWj_ed
ed d_d[ i_j[ lWh_WXb[i h[bWj_d] je dkjh_[dji" j[cf[hWjkh[" WdZ mWj[h WlW_bWX_b_jo
Fh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($8Wi[Zedj^[lWbk[ie\j^[i[lWh_WXb[i"I?BL7[ij_cWj[ij^[
if[Y_[i#WdZi_j[#if[Y_\_Yfej[dj_Wb^[_]^jWjWdoj_c[ki_d]Wded#b_d[Wh"ckbj_fb_#
YWj_l[Zei[#h[ifedi[ceZ[b$J^[h[_iWZei[#h[ifedi[h[bWj_edi^_f\eh[WY^e\j^[
d_d[i_j[lWh_WXb[i$<eh[WY^e\j^[j^h[[]hekfie\i_j[lWh_WXb[idkjh_[dji"j[c#
f[hWjkh["WdZmWj[hWlW_bWX_b_jo"j^[Zei[#h[ifedi[iYecX_d[_djeWYecfb[n[\#
\[Yj\WYjehm^_Y^"_djkhd"_iki[ZjeZ[h_l[\_dWb"i_j[#if[Y_\_Y[ij_cWj[ie\7"a"WdZ
fe\j^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j]hemj^ceZ[b$
J^[ \_hij ioij[c e\ [gkWj_edi je YWb_XhWj[ _dYbkZ[i j^[ Zei[#h[ifedi[ \kdY#
j_ed\eh[WY^e\j^[d_d[i_j[lWh_WXb[i"ceZ[bb_d]j^[if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_Y]hemj^h[#
ifedi[hn0
)*, #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
[
(ÕQnÄY'%Y(ÄY'S("Y'§n2Y'!Y(ÄY'%(
'Ä(ÕQnÄY(%Y(ÄY'S("Y'!Y(ÄY'%(§n2Y(
'"Y(§n2Y) ;g$',$(
hn3
'Ä(ÕQnÄY)%Y*ÄY)S("Y)§n2Y)!Y*ÄY)%(
(ÕQnÄY*%Y*ÄY)S("Y)!Y*ÄY)%(§n2Y*
&"ej^[hm_i[
m^[h[ hn _i j^[ h[ifedi[ jhWdi\ehc[Z edje Q&1'S" n _i j^[ lWbk[ e\ W i_j[
lWh_WXb[ \eh [nWcfb[" '*9 eh ))&cc" WdZ Y'" Y(" Y)" WdZ Y* Wh[ Zei[#j^h[i^#
ebZlWbk[i\ehj^[h[ifedi[\kdYj_ed$=[d[hWbbo"m_j^_dYh[Wi_d]Zei[e\dkjh_[dji"
j[cf[hWjkh[" eh fh[Y_f_jWj_ed" j^[ ]hemj^ h[ifedi[ _dYh[Wi[i kdj_b Wd efj_ckc
b[l[bWdZfeii_XboZ[Yh[Wi[ij^[h[W\j[h$
J^[d[njioij[ce\[gkWj_edijeYWb_XhWj[ceZ[bi_dlebl[ij^[YecX_d[Z[\\[Yj
e\i_j[YedZ_j_edied^[_]^j]hemj^"XWi[Zedj^[ie#YWbb[ZYecfb[n[\\[Yj\WYjehi$
J^[ioij[c_dYbkZ[ij^h[[i_ckbjWd[eki[gkWj_edi0
)`)`
'ÄG`!( G`!(
A<`3 h_ Õ 'Ä'Äh_ ;g$',$)
_3'!)`Ä'_3'!)`Ä'
))
737&!7'Õ A<` Õ 'Ä'ÄA<`
'ÄG'
`3'`3' G'
;g$',$*
) 'ÄG(
Jakbc3J&ÄJ'Õ A<` Õ 'Ä'ÄA<'Õ'ÄA<(ÕA<)
`3'
G(
;g$',$+
m^[h[A<_ij^[Yecfb[n[\\[Yj\WYjehYecX_d_d]j^[[\\[Yje\j^h[[i_j[lWh_W#
Xb[i"h_ij^[jhWdi\ehc[Zh[ifedi[jeWi_j[lWh_WXb[;g$',$("7_ij^[Wiocfjej[
\ehijWdZ^[_]^jjeX[ki[Z_d;g$',$'"Jakbc_ij^[W][e\^[_]^j]hemj^Ykbc_#
dWj_ed"G`"7&"7'"J&"WdZJ'Wh[fWhWc[j[hijeX[[ij_cWj[Z"_3'"$$$"/h[\[hijej^[
d_d[i_j[lWh_WXb[i"WdZ`3'"(")h[\[hijemWj[hWlW_bWX_b_jo"j[cf[hWjkh[WdZdk#
jh_[dji"h[if[Yj_l[bo$
:k[jeW^_]^Z[]h[[e\Yehh[bWj_edX[jm[[daWdZf"\bkYjkWj_ed_d[ij_cWj[i
e\j^[i[fWhWc[j[hicWob[WZjekdb_a[boceZ[bie\^[_]^jZ[l[befc[dj"l_p$kd#
b_a[bobeYWj_ede\j^[_d\b[Yj_edfe_dj$J^_i_icW_dboWfheXb[c_dj^[YWi[e\i^ehj
eXi[hlWj_edf[h_eZiehbWYae\eXi[hlWj_ediWj[WhboijW][ie\ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj$
JeWbb[l_Wj[j^_ifheXb[c"I?BL7^WiX[[dYedijhkYj[Zje[dikh[WÈh[Wb_ij_YÉWdZ
iec[^emÈijWdZWhZ_i[ZÉZ[l[befc[dje\ijWdZ^[_]^jXojo_d]je][j^[haWdZf$
>[_]^jWjj^[j_c[e\^[_]^j]hemj^Ykbc_dWj_ed">Jakbc"_iceZ[bb[ZWiW\kdYj_ed
e\j^[j_c[e\Ykbc_dWj_ed"Jakbc"ki_d]j^[C_jiY^[hb_Y^\kdYj_ed
>Jakbc3XÕ'Ä[nfYÕJakbc ;g$',$,
m^[h[Jakbc3Äbd'%f%a">Jakbc37'Ä'%ff"WdZXWdZYWh[fWhWc[j[hije
X[[ij_cWj[Z$
È #ALIBRATIONÈOFÈ3),6!ÈFORÈ$ENMARK )*-
8Wi[Z ed i_j[#if[Y_\_Y [ij_cWj[i e\7 ;g$',$*" Jakbc ;g$',$+" WdZ >Jakbc
;g$',$,"f_i[ij_cWj[Zki_d]
c3Ä'd'Ä>Jakbc%7%Z%[ ;g$',$-
m^[h[c3'Ä'%fWdZZWdZ[Wh[fWhWc[j[hijeX[[ij_cWj[Z$
<_dWbbo"j^[bWijfWhWc[j[he\;g$',$'_iYWbYkbWj[ZWi
a3Ä'd'%f%Jakbc ;g$',$.
È
$IAMETERÈ'ROWTHÈ0OTENTIAL
Fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h]hemj^_iceZ[bb[Zki_d]j^[ded#b_d[WhceZ[b
pZÄfej37Õ'Ä[nfÄaÕZfÕaÕfÕ[nfÄaÕZ ;g$',$/
m^[h[pZÄfej_ij^[fej[dj_Wb]hemj^_dY[dj_c[jh[if[h+o[Whie\_dZ_l_ZkWb
jh[[Z_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jZX^"Z_ieXi[hl[ZZX^_dY[dj_c[jh[i"WdZ7"a"
WdZfWh[fWhWc[j[hijeX[[ij_cWj[Z$
È
#ALIBRATIONÈ$ATA
9Wb_XhWj_edZWjWeh_]_dWj[Z\hec.-[nf[h_c[dji_dDehmWoifhkY[WdZ,,[n#
f[h_c[dji_dX[[Y^<_]$',$'$I[l[hWb[nf[h_c[dji_dYbkZ[ZWhWd][e\Z_\\[h[dj
jh[Wjc[dji_dj[hcie\ifWY_d]"j^_dd_d]j^_dd_d]]hWZ["\h[gk[dYo"WdZjof["eh
ej^[hcWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[i"m_j^WjejWbe\)+/fbeji\ehDehmWoifhkY[WdZ'+-
fbeji\ehX[[Y^$
:WjW h[fh[i[dj Wbb \eh[ij h[]_edi _d :[dcWha" hWd]_d] \hec \[hj_b[ j_bb ie_bi
_d[Wij[hdfWhjie\j^[YekdjhojeiWdZoekjmWi^fbW_di_dj^[m[ij$<ehDehmWo
ifhkY[" j^[ [Whb_[ij [ijWXb_i^[Z ijWdZi ZWj[ XWYa je '.&/" m^_b[ c[Wikh[c[dji
hWd][\hec'.-+je'//.$<ehX[[Y^"j^[[Whb_[ij[ijWXb_i^[ZijWdZiZWj[XWYaje
'-/(" WdZ c[Wikh[c[dji hWd][ \hec WhekdZ '.(+ je (&&($ EXi[hlWj_ed f[h_eZi
j^Wjm[h[ki[Z\ehj^_iijkZohWd][\hec(je,(o[Whi\ehDehmWoifhkY[WdZ\hec
')je//o[Whi\ehX[[Y^$7][Wjj_c[e\c[Wikh[c[djhWd][i\hec'*je'&*o[Whi
\ehDehmWoifhkY[WdZ\hec'+je'-*o[Whi\ehX[[Y^$
È
(EIGHTÈ'ROWTHÈ0OTENTIAL
J^[ i[b[Yj_ed e\ eXi[hlWj_edi \eh YWb_XhWj_ed e\ j^[ ^[_]^j ]hemj^ fej[dj_Wb
mWiYWhh_[Zekj_dWckbj_fb[ij[ffheY[Zkh[$<_hij"fWhWc[j[hie\;g$',$'m[h[
)*. #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
&IGÈÈ,OCATIONÈOFÈEXPERIMENTSÈUSEDÈFORÈCALIBRATIONÈANDÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈ3),6!ÈINÈ$ENMARKÈÈ
4RIANGLESÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈCIRCLESÈBEECHÈLETTERSÈINDICATEÈEXPERIMENTSÈUSEDÈFORÈMODELÈEVALUATION
[ij_cWj[Z \eh [WY^ [nf[h_c[dj i_j[" _d iec[ YWi[i feeb_d] fbeji e\ Z_\\[h[dj
jh[Wjc[djm_j^_dj^[[nf[h_c[dj$<ehifhkY["eXi[hlWj_edi\hec.-[nf[h_c[dji
m[h[WlW_bWXb[$Ekje\),[nf[h_c[djij^Wj^WZX[[dc[Wikh[Zi_nj_c[iehceh["
edbo(,h[ikbj[Z_dX_ebe]_YWbboh[WiedWXb[fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[i$<ehX[[Y^"eXi[h#
lWj_edi\hec,*[nf[h_c[djim[h[WlW_bWXb[$Ekje\),[nf[h_c[djij^Wj^WZX[[d
c[Wikh[ZWjb[Wiji_nj_c[i"edbo'/h[ikbj[Z_dX_ebe]_YWbboh[WiedWXb[fWhWc[#
j[h [ij_cWj[i$ <eh Xej^ if[Y_[i" ZWjW m[h[ [nYbkZ[Z \hec j^[ ikXi[gk[dj WdWbo#
i_i _\ eXi[hlWj_ed f[h_eZi m[h[ i^ehj eh _\ ZWjW Yel[h[Z edbo f^Wi[i e\ `kl[d_b[
]hemj^fh_ehjeYkbc_dWj_ede\^[_]^j]hemj^Q\_jj_d]Wi_]ce_Z]hemj^\kdYj_ed
;g$',$'jeikY^ZWjWh[ikbji_dkdh[Wb_ij_YfWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[i\ehWiocfjej_Y
^[_]^j]hemj^e\ebZ[hjh[[iS$
?dWi[YedZij[fj^[Zei[#h[ifedi[\kdYj_ed;g$',$(mWiZ[j[hc_d[ZXWi[Z
ed[ij_cWj[ie\7WdZJakbc$J^[h[ifedi[\kdYj_edmWil_ikWbbo\_jj[Zjej^[kf#
f[hb_c_je\j^[h[bWj_l[lWbk[ie\Xej^lWh_WXb[i$?dYWi[e\YedjhWij_d]fWjj[hdi
e\7WdZJakbc"^_]^[hfh_eh_jomWi]_l[djeJakbc"m^_Y^lWh_[Zceh[_dj^[\_dWb
ceZ[bj^Wd7$
D[nj"\ehj^[[ij_cWj_ede\>Jakbc\hecJakbc;g$',$,WdZj^[[ij_cWj_ede\
f\hec>Jakbc;g$',$-"fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[i\hecij[f'm[h[ki[Z$<ehX[[Y^"
j^h[[ [nf[h_c[dji m[h[ _Z[dj_\_[Z Wi ekjb_[hi WdZ dej Yedi_Z[h[Z [nf[h_c[dji
:C"G"WdZN$
<_dWbbo"ki_d]Z_\\[h[djYecX_dWj_edie\i_j[lWh_WXb[ij^[_j[hWj_l[YWb_XhWj_ed
e\j^[i_ckbjWd[eki;gi$',$)Ä',$+b[Zje\khj^[hi[b[Yj_ede\eXi[hlWj_edi$
J^[Yecfb[j[i[je\d_d[i_j[lWh_WXb[iYekbZdejik\\_Y_[djbo[nfbW_dj^[]hemj^
È #ALIBRATIONÈOFÈ3),6!ÈFORÈ$ENMARK )*/
fWjj[hdie\DehmWoifhkY[WdZX[[Y^_d:[dcWha$7iW\_hijceZ_\_YWj_ed"j^[DEn
WdZ9E(YedY[djhWj_edim[h[h[cel[Z\hecj^[ceZ[b"X[YWki[deZWjWedj^[
^_ijeh_YWbZ[l[befc[dje\j^[i[W_hXehd[dkjh_[djiWh[WlW_bWXb[$
<eh DehmWo ifhkY[" j^[ h[cW_d_d] i[l[d i_j[ lWh_WXb[i YekbZ dej ik\\_Y_[dj#
bo[nfbW_dj^[eXi[hl[ZlWh_Wj_ed_d7WdZJakbc"[_j^[hWbed["_dYecX_dWj_ed"eh
_dj^[i_ckbjWd[ekiceZ[b;gi$',$)Ä',$+$7h[Y[djYWb_XhWj_ede\WdWj_edWb
]hemj^ceZ[b\ehDehmWoifhkY["XWi[Zedj^[iWc[ZWjWi[j"Z[cedijhWj[Zj^Wj
j^[f[hY[djW][e\YeWhi[iWdZ&$(Ä(cc_dj^[kff[h'ce\j^[ie_b_iYbei[bo
Yehh[bWj[Zm_j^j^[^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_WbB[Who[jWb$"kdfkXb$$8Wi[Zedj^_i"
j^[f[hY[djW][e\YeWhi[iWdZmWi_djheZkY[ZWiWd[mi_j[lWh_WXb[$Ie_bj[njkh[
ZWjWm[h[WlW_bWXb[\eh'+DehmWoifhkY[[nf[h_c[dji$J^[f[hY[djW][e\YeWhi[
iWdZWbed[YekbZ[nfbW_dj^[lWh_Wj_ed_d^[_]^j]hemj^_dj^[i_ckbjWd[ekiceZ#
[b;gi$',$)Ä',$+$7ZZ_j_edWb_dYbki_ede\Wdoe\j^[i[l[deh_]_dWbi_j[lWh_WXb[i
Z_Zdej_cfhel[j^[ceZ[b$
<ehX[[Y^"j^[j^h[[i_j[lWh_WXb[ih[bWj[Zjefh[Y_f_jWj_edZ_Zdejik\\_Y_[dj#
bo[nfbW_dj^[lWh_Wj_ed_d7WdZJakbcWi_dZ_YWj[ZXoG)3'_dj^[i_ckbjWd[eki
ceZ[b$Jmee\j^[j^h[[i_j[lWh_WXb[ih[bWj[Zjej[cf[hWjkh["l_p$j^[ZkhWj_ede\
j^[]hemj^f[h_eZWdZj^[WddkWblWh_Wj_ed_dc[Wdj[cf[hWjkh["m[h[Z_iYWhZ[Z
W\j[hYWh[\kbWdWboi_ie\j^[_hZei[#h[ifedi[\kdYj_edi$J^[_h\W_bkh[je[nfbW_dj^[
lWh_Wj_ed_dj^[h[ifedi[lWh_WXb[i_ifheXWXboZk[jej^[_hhWj^[hb_c_j[ZlWh_Wj_ed
m_j^_d:[dcWha$9edi[gk[djbo"edbojmelWh_WXb[i"j^[ie_bdkjh_[djYbWiiWdZj^[
c[Wdj[cf[hWjkh[Zkh_d]j^[]hemj^f[h_eZ"m[h[i[b[Yj[Z\ehX[[Y^$7jejWbe\'.
X[[Y^[nf[h_c[djim[h[ki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_ede\j^[^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wb$
FWhWc[j[hih[bWj[Zjei_j[lWh_WXb[ij^Wj^Wl[dejX[[dki[Z^[h[m[h[i[jje
lWbk[i[$]$"G_3'j^Wjh[ikbj_dde_d\bk[dY[e\j^ei[fWhWc[j[hiedj^[h[ifedi[
lWh_WXb[$
J^[\_dWbceZ[bim[h[j[ij[Zki_d]h[i_ZkWbfbeji\ehYWb_XhWj_ed[nf[h_c[dji
Wi m[bb Wi \eh _dZ[f[dZ[dj ZWjW \hec [nf[h_c[dji dej ki[Z \eh YWb_XhWj_ed$ :W#
jWdejki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_ed_dYbkZ[Z'/[nf[h_c[dji_doekd]ijWdZie\DehmWo
ifhkY[" \eh m^_Y^ ie_b j[njkh[ ZWjW m[h[ WlW_bWXb[" WdZ *, [nf[h_c[dji _d X[[Y^
m_j^Yecfb[j[_d\ehcWj_ededi_j[lWh_WXb[i$
È
3ITEÈ6ARIABLES
:WjWedj[cf[hWjkh[WdZfh[Y_f_jWj_edeh_]_dWj[\hecj^[:Wd_i^C[j[ehebe]#
_YWb?dij_jkj[<h_Y^[jWb$'//-1BWk[hi[d[jWb$'///"(&&'19Wff[b[dWdZBWk[hi[d
(&&&$<eh[WY^[nf[h_c[djWbi_j["ZWjW\hecj^[d[Wh[ijc[j[ehebe]_YWbeXi[hlW#
j_edfe_djm[h[ki[Z$:WjWedie_bdkjh_[dji"ce_ijkh["WdZj[njkh[m[h[eXjW_d[Z
\hec fkXb_i^[Z eXi[hlWj_edi >ebij[d[h#@´h][di[d '/+.1 9Wbb[i[d (&&(" (&&)1
B[Who[jWb$"kdfkXb$eheh_]_dWb\_[bZdej[iie_bf_jZ[iYh_fj_edi"j[njkh[WdWboi[i"
[jY$$?dW\[mYWi[im^[h[beYWbie_b_d\ehcWj_edmWidejWlW_bWXb["_d\ehcWj_ed
\hecj^[d[Wh[ijfkXb_i^[Zie_bfhe\_b[imWiki[ZIkdZX[h]'///1=hWdWj(&&&$
Ie_bim[h[YbWii_\_[ZWYYehZ_d]jej^[:Wd_i^dWj_edWbie_bYbWii_\_YWj_ed\eh\eh#
[ijbWdZ$?dj^[:Wd_i^ioij[c"WlW_bWXb[mWj[hYWfWY_jo_dj^[kff[h'ce\j^[
heejped[_i[ij_cWj[ZXWi[Zedie_beh]Wd_YcWjj[hWdZj^[Yedj[djie\YbWo"i_bj"
)+& #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
WdZ\_d[iWdZCWZi[dWdZFbWjek'/.)$:[f[dZ_d]edWlW_bWXb[mWj[hYWfWY_#
jo"fh[Y_f_jWj_edZkh_d]j^[l[][jWj_edf[h_eZ"WdZbeYWj_ede\j^[]hekdZmWj[h
jWXb["ie_bce_ijkh[_ihWj[ZedWd_d[#fe_djiYWb[I´h[di[dWdZ:Wbi]WWhZ'//-1
=hWdWj(&&&$Dkjh_[djWlW_bWX_b_jo_ihWj[ZedWi_n#fe_djiYWb[Z[f[dZ_d]edj^[
hWj_ee\YWj_ed[nY^Wd][YWfWY_joWdZXWi[iWjkhWj_edjej^[dkcX[he\ie_bijhWjW
I´h[di[dWdZ:Wbi]WWhZ'//-1=hWdWj(&&&$
È
$IAMETERÈ'ROWTHÈ0OTENTIAL
<ehDehmWoifhkY["*'/"(,-eXi[hlWj_edim[h[ki[ZjeYWb_XhWj[j^[Z_Wc[j[h
]hemj^ceZ[b$:_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jhWd][Z\hec&$(je-&$'Ycm_j^Wc[Wd
e\'*$*Yc$<ehX[[Y^"'-."(((eXi[hlWj_edim[h[ki[Z$:_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^j
hWd][Z\hec&$(je'&&$/Ycm_j^Wc[Wde\'.$(Yc$
<ehXej^if[Y_[i"j^[eXi[hlWj_edim[h[Z_l_Z[Z_dje(#Yc#Z_Wc[j[hYbWii[i"WdZ
//f[hY[dj_b[im[h[YWbYkbWj[Z\eh[WY^Z_Wc[j[hYbWii$J^[f[hY[dj_b[i[nYbkZ[
[njh[c[eXi[hlWj_ediWdZm[h[ki[Z_d[ij_cWj_d]j^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_Wb
\kdYj_ed;g$',$/$:k[je_d\h[gk[djeXi[hlWj_edi_d^_]^[hZ_Wc[j[hYbWii[i"edbo
eXi[hlWj_edim_j^Wd_d_j_WbZX^e\b[iij^Wdeh[gkWbje*&Ycm[h[ki[Z\ehifhkY["
WdZedboeXi[hlWj_edie\b[iij^Wdeh[gkWbje,,Ycm[h[ki[Z\ehX[[Y^$
È
#ALIBRATIONÈ2ESULTS
È
(EIGHTÈ'ROWTHÈ0OTENTIAL
J^[Zei[#j^h[i^ebZlWbk[ie\j^[Zei[#h[ifedi[\kdYj_ed;g$',$(m[h[i[jWi
\ebbemi\ehj^[j^h[[i[b[Yj[Zi_j[lWh_WXb[i0\ehDehmWoifhkY[WdZj^[f[hY[dj#
W][e\YeWhi[iWdZ"Y'3&"Y(3&"Y)3(*"WdZY*3'&&1\ehX[[Y^WdZj^[ie_bdkjh_[dj
YbWii[i"Y'3Ä&$("Y(3&$,,,-"Y)3'"WdZY*3'kd_jiWh[j^[i_nie_bdkjh_[djYbWii#
[ijhWdi\ehc[Z_djeQ&1'S1WdZ\ehj^[c[Wdj[cf[hWjkh[e\j^[]hem_d]i[Wied"
Y'3'("Y(3'*$'"Y)3'*$)"WdZY*3'._dZ[]h[[i9[dj_]hWZ[$
;ij_cWj[i e\ Wbb fWhWc[j[hi \eh ;gi$',$) Ä ',$- Wh[ ikccWh_i[Z_dJWXb[
',$' WdZ ceZ[b fh[Z_Yj_edi \eh i_j[i _dYbkZ[Z _d j^[ YWb_XhWj_ed Wh[ i^emd _d
<_]$',$($<ehXej^if[Y_[i"WXiebkj[Z[l_Wj_ediWcekdjjeb[iij^Wd)c\ehceij
eXi[hlWj_ediWdZb[iij^Wd(c\ehWcW`eh_joe\eXi[hlWj_edi1\ehj^[_dZ[f[dZ[dj
j[ijZWjW"WXiebkj[Z[l_Wj_edim[h[Wbie][d[hWbbob[iij^Wd)cdeji^emd$
<ehifhkY["j^[hWd][e\j^[ceZ[b_ii[jcW_dboXoj^h[[[nf[h_c[djiedfeeh
^[Wj^bWdZi_j[i?I"=="A<"_dehZ[he\_dYh[Wi_d]]hemj^fej[dj_WbWdZj^[bWh][
]hekfe\'(h[cW_d_d][nf[h_c[djiedX[jj[hi_j[i$Edboed[i_j[lWh_WXb[f[h#
Y[djW][e\YeWhi[iWdZ_dj^[kff[h'ce\j^[ie_bmWiki[Zje[nfbW_dZ_\\[h[dY#
[i_d]hemj^X[^Wl_ekh$J^_ii_j[lWh_WXb[_i[Wi_boc[Wikh[Zeh[ij_cWj[Zhek]^#
bo_dj^[\_[bZ$
È #ALIBRATIONÈOFÈ3),6!ÈFORÈ$ENMARK )+'
4ABLEÈÈ 0ARAMETERÈ ESTIMATESÈ OFÈ THEÈ MODELÈ FORÈ SITE
SPECIFICÈ POTENTIALÈ HEIGHTÈ FORÈ .ORWAYÈ
SPRUCEÈ ANDÈ BEECHÈ INÈ $ENMARKÈ .È .UMBERÈ OFÈ OBSERVATIONSÈ 2È COEFFICIENTÈ OFÈ DETERMINATIONÈ
2-3%ÈROOTÈOFÈMEANÈSQUAREDÈERROR
GÈ È È È
GÈ È È È
GÈ È È È
!È È È È
<ehX[[Y^"j^[hWd][e\j^[ceZ[b_ii[jcW_dboXoj^h[[[nf[h_c[dji8B":9"
::ediWdZocehW_d[WdZj^[bWh][]hekfe\'+h[cW_d_d][nf[h_c[djiedX[j#
j[hi_j[i$Jmee\j^[\ehc[h]hekfWh[beYWj[ZYbei[je[WY^ej^[h:9"::WdZ
j^[_h^[_]^j]hemj^WbceijYe_dY_Z[i$J^[jmelWh_WXb[ic[Wdj[cf[hWjkh[e\j^[
]hemj^f[h_eZWdZie_bdkjh_[djYbWiih[\b[Yj_d]j^[lWh_Wj_ed_d^[_]^j]hemj^
WdZj^[m[_]^ji]_l[djej^[i[lWh_WXb[i_dj^[ceZ[bYWddejX[[nf[Yj[ZjeX[
lWb_Z\ehj^[\kbbhWd][e\i_j[YedZ_j_edi\ehX[[Y^_d:[dcWha$
)+( #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
<ehX[[Y^"cWdoe\j^[oekd][h[nf[h_c[djidejki[Z\ehYWb_XhWj_edi^emi_]#
d_\_YWdjZ[l_Wj_edi\hecj^[]hemj^fWjj[hdieXi[hl[Z\ehj^[ebZ[h[nf[h_c[dji$
J^_i_ijWa[dWiWd_dZ_YWj_ede\_dik\\_Y_[djfh[Z_Yj_l[WX_b_joe\j^[jmei_j[lWh#
_WXb[ih[bWj_l[jej^[jejWbhWd][e\i_j[YedZ_j_edi_d:[dcWha$M[Z_ZYedi_Z[hW
ceZ[bi_c_bWhjej^Wj\ehDehmWoifhkY["Xkjie_bj[njkh[ZWjWm[h[WlW_bWXb[ed#
bo\eh[_]^je\j^[ebZ[hX[[Y^[nf[h_c[djiWdZi^em[Zdei_]d_\_YWdjYehh[bWj_ed
X[jm[[dj^[f[hY[djW][e\YeWhi[iWdZWdZ7WdZJakbc$
È
$IAMETERÈ'ROWTHÈ0OTENTIAL
FWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[i\ehfej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h]hemj^_d:[dcWha;g$',$/Wh[
\eh DehmWo ifhkY[0 73("*)&" a3&$&')-&" WdZ f3&$-)*(1 WdZ \eh X[[Y^073*")+/"
a3&$&&/-'-"WdZf3&$)'(.$J^[i[[ij_cWj[ih[\b[Yj]hemj^fWjj[hdiYedi_Z[hWXbo
Z_\\[h[dj\hecj^[=[hcWdYWb_XhWj_edFh[jpiY^[jWb$(&&($M_j^_dj^[hWd][e\
h[b[lWdjZ_Wc[j[hij^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^e\DehmWoifhkY[_d:[dcWha_ickY^
ibem[h j^Wd _d =[hcWdo" m^[h[Wi \eh X[[Y^ _d_j_Wb ]hemj^ _i ib_]^jbo \Wij[h WdZ
cW_djW_di W ^_]^[h b[l[b j^hek]^ekj$ J^_i cWo X[ Zk[ je Z_\\[h[dY[i X[jm[[d
:[dcWha WdZ =[hcWdo _d jh[Wjc[dj [njh[c[i WdZ _d i[b[Yj_ed fh_dY_fb[i$ <eh
DehmWoifhkY["j^[=[hcWd[nf[h_c[dji_dYbkZ[i[l[hWbfbejim_j^Yhemdj^_d#
d_d]"m^[h[Wij^[h[Wh[edbo\[mikY^fbeji_dj^[:Wd_i^[nf[h_c[dji$<ehX[[Y^"
j^[ :Wd_i^ [nf[h_c[dji _dYbkZ[ [njh[c[bo ^[Wlo j^_dd_d]i WffheWY^_d] \h[[
]hemj^" m^_b[ j^[h[ Wh[ edbo \[m ^[Wl_bo j^_dd[Z fbeji _d j^[ =[hcWd [nf[h_#
c[dji$ J^[i[ Z_\\[h[dY[i Wbie _dZ_YWj[ j^Wj j^[ Z_Wc[j[h ]hemj^ fej[dj_Wb Ze[i
dejh[fh[i[dj]hemj^"m^_Y^_i\h[[e\Yecf[j_j_ed$I_dY[]hemj^h[YehZie\_dZ_#
l_ZkWbjh[[i\hecfbejim_j^[njh[c[jh[Wjc[djiWh[ki[ZjeYWb_XhWj[j^[fej[dj_Wb
]hemj^\kdYj_ed"j^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_Wb_ieXl_ekibo_d\bk[dY[ZXoj^_d#
d_d]_dj[di_joWdZi[b[Yj_edfh_dY_fb[i$
IkXi[gk[djj[ijie\j^[ceZ[b"m^_Y^Wh[dejh[fehj[Z_dj^_ifWf[h"h[l[Wb[Z
j^[d[[Zje\khj^[hWZ`kijj^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_WbWdZ_jiZ[f[dZ[dYoed
È -ODELÈ%VALUATION )+)
i_j[YedZ_j_edi$H[ikbjifh[i[dj[Z^[h[Wh[j^[h[\eh[edbolWb_Z\ehj^[i_j[iki[Z
_d ekh j[iji WdZ iY[dWh_ei" Xkj i^ekbZ dej X[ kdYh_j_YWbbo [njhWfebWj[Z je ej^[h
i_j[i_d:[dcWha$
È
-ODELÈ%VALUATION
J^[fkhfei[e\j^[[lWbkWj_ede\j^[YWb_XhWj[ZceZ[bmWifh_cWh_bojej[ij
j^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^ceZ[b"_$[$"jej[ijj^[ceZ_\_YWj_ede\j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[Z_#
Wc[j[h]hemj^Xoj^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n$Dej[j^Wjj^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nmWidej
Y^Wd][Z\hecj^[eh_]_dWbl[hi_ede\I?BL7$
È
%VALUATIONÈ$ATA
EXi[hlWj_edi\hecj^h[[[nf[h_c[djWbfbeji_difhkY[WdZ\ekh_dX[[Y^m[h[
ki[Z\ehj^[[lWbkWj_ede\j^[]hemj^ceZ[b<_]$',$'$J^[Y^ei[dfbejih[fh[#
i[djj^[hWd][e\i_j[YedZ_j_edih[b[lWdjjej^[YWi[ijkZoWdZWm_Z[hWd][e\
j^_dd_d] fhWYj_Y[i$ ?dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ fei_j_edi m[h[ WlW_bWXb[ edbo \eh ed[ e\ j^[
X[[Y^fbeji$:_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jmWiWlW_bWXb[\ehWbbjh[[i\ehWdkcX[he\
eXi[hlWj_edo[Whi"m^[h[Wi^[_]^jmWic[Wikh[Zedbo\ehWiWcfb[e\jh[[i_d[WY^
c[Wikh[c[djf[h_eZ$J^[h[cW_d_d]^[_]^jim[h[[ij_cWj[ZXWi[Zed^[_]^jÄZ_#
Wc[j[hh[]h[ii_edi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbfbejiWdZo[Whi$J^[j_c[e\h[celWbehZ[Wj^
e\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i_iademd\ehWbbfbeji$
<ehifhkY["Wbbj^h[[[nf[h_c[djWbfbejiWh[beYWj[Z_d=bkZij[ZFbWdjWj_ed_d
m[ij[hd@kjbWdZ"j^[beYWj_edki[Z\ehj^[ikXi[gk[djiY[dWh_eWdWboi[i$Jmee\
j^[fbeji"h[fh[i[dj_d]Z_\\[h[djj^_dd_d]ijhWj[]_[i"eh_]_dWj[\hecj^_dd_d][n#
f[h_c[dj?I$J^[7#]hWZ[fbejde$c"&$()/+^W_ij^[kdj^_dd[ZYedjheb$J^[:#
]hWZ[fbejde$Y"&$()-(^W^WiX[[dj^_dd[Z^[Wl_bo\hecX[bem"m_j^Wd[Whbo
WdZhWf_Zh[ZkYj_ed_dij[cdkcX[h"WdZj^_dd_d]i[l[ho\ekhj^o[WhjeWh[i_Z#
kWbXWiWbWh[We\WXekj(&c(%^W<_]$',$)$J^[j^_hZifhkY[fbejeh_]_dWj[i\hec
ifWY_d][nf[h_c[djD:$J^_ifbejde$+"&$'.),^Wh[fh[i[djiWd_d_j_WbifWY_d]
e\'$+'$+c$J^[fbej^WiX[[dj^_dd[Z^[Wl_bo\hecX[bem$
<ehX[[Y^"jmefbejieh_]_dWj[\hecj^_dd_d][nf[h_c[dj:F_dJejj[hkf$J^_i
[nf[h_c[dj_ibeYWj[Zed\[hj_b[cehW_d[ie_bi_d[Wij[hd:[dcWha$J^[8#]hWZ[
fbej de$ ''" &$'&*&^W h[fh[i[dji W l[ho b_]^j j^_dd_d] \hec X[bem1 edbo ikf#
fh[ii[Zjh[[im[h[h[cel[Z"WdZj^[XWiWbWh[WWffheWY^[i*&c(%^W$J^[9#]hWZ[
fbejde$/"&$'-'-^Wh[fh[i[dji^[Wloj^_dd_d]jeWh[i_ZkWbXWiWbWh[We\WXekj
(&c(%^W$:kh_d]j^[`kl[d_b[o[WhiWdZjemWhZij^[[dZe\j^[hejWj_ed"j^_dd_d]
mWifh[Zec_dWdjbo\hecWXel[$J^hek]^ekj"WdkdZ[hijeh[oe\X[[Y^mWicW_d#
jW_d[Z$
J^[j^_hZX[[Y^fbejYecfh_i[i[nf[h_c[dj:9_ddehj^[hd@kjbWdZHebZ<eh#
[ij"&$,/**^W$J^_ifbej_il[hoebZ"^Wibed]X[[deXi[hl[Z"WdZh[fh[i[dji_d#
\[hj_b[i_j[YedZ_j_edi$J^[fbej^WiX[[dj^_dd[ZceZ[hWj[boje^[Wl_bo"fh[Zec_#
dWdjbo\hecX[bem"jeWh[i_ZkWbXWiWbWh[We\WXekj(&Ä(+c(%^W<_]$',$*$J^[
)+* #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
\ekhj^X[[Y^fbejYecfh_i[i[nf[h_c[djG@³][hiXeh]<[dY[Z<eh[ij"&$)*.+^W$
J^_ifbejh[fh[i[dji\[hj_b[i_j[YedZ_j_edi"_igk_j[ebZ"WdZ^WiX[[deXi[hl[Z\eh
ceh[j^WdWY[djkho$J^hek]^ekj"[nf[h_c[djG^WiX[[dj^_dd[Z ^[Wl_bo"fh[#
Zec_dWdjbo\hecX[bem"jeWh[i_ZkWbXWiWbWh[We\WXekj(&c(%^W<_]$',$+$Ed
j^_ifbejjh[[fei_j_edim[h[h[YehZ[Z\ehWbb-(-jh[[i_d'/&($
È
-ODELÈ3PECIFICATIONS
IjWdZ Z[l[befc[dj mWi i_ckbWj[Z XWi[Z ed _d_j_Wb" eXi[hl[Z Z_Wc[j[hi WdZ
^[_]^jiki_d]I?BL7_dXWjY^ceZ[$I?BL7[ij_cWj[iYhemdZ_c[di_ediXWi[Zed
ZX^WdZ^[_]^j\eh[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[$;nY[fj\ehed[X[[Y^fbej"jh[[fei_j_edi
m[h[][d[hWj[ZXoI?BL7$:k[jej^[ijeY^Wij_YdWjkh[e\I?BL7Éijh[[fei_j_ed][d#
[hWjehWdZ_jiZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^ceZ[bi"[WY^i_ckbWj_edmWih[f[Wj[Z
'&&j_c[i$<ehX[[Y^[nf[h_c[djG"_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[fei_j_edim[h[WlW_bWXb[WdZ
i_ckbWj_edim[h[h[f[Wj[Zedbo)&j_c[i$J^[lWh_Wj_ede\_dZ_l_ZkWbi_ckbWj_ed
h[ikbji_i^[h[i^emdedbo\ehj^[c_d_ckcWdZcWn_ckcZ_Wc[j[hi<_]i$',$)
Ä',$+$DWjkhWbcehjWb_jomWidej_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[ceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed$
È
3ITE
3PECIFICÈ#ALIBRATION
<ehj^[ceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed"^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_WbmWiZ[\_d[ZZ_h[YjboXoj^[
j^h[[ fWhWc[j[hi e\ ;g$',$'" _cfbo_d] j^Wj j^[ [ij_cWj_ed e\ j^[ i_j[#if[Y_\_Y
^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_WbXoI?BL7_idejki[Z$FWhWc[j[him[h[[ij_cWj[Zki_d]Wbb
j^[ZWjWWlW_bWXb[\hec[WY^[nf[h_c[dj$IkXi[gk[djbo"[ij_cWj[ie\j^[Wiocf#
jej[7m[h[ckbj_fb_[ZXoj^[\WYjehki[Z_dI?BL7jeYedl[hj\hec>'&&jej^[_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[^[_]^jfej[dj_Wb$<ehiec[fbeji7mWi\khj^[hceZ_\_[Z(je!)c
kdj_beXi[hl[ZWdZfh[Z_Yj[Z^[_]^jil_ikWbbo\_jj[Z<_]i$',$)WdZ',$*jeX[jj[h
h[\b[Yjj^[fbej#if[Y_\_Yi_j[YedZ_j_edij^WjWffWh[djboWbielWh_[Zm_j^_dj^[[n#
f[h_c[dji$
<_l[i_j[lWh_WXb[iWh[ki[Z_dI?BL7jeZ[\_d[Wi_j[#if[Y_\_YZ_Wc[j[h]hemj^
fej[dj_WbFh[jpiY^WdZAW^d'//.$J^[W]]h[]Wj_ede\j^[i[\_l[lWh_WXb[i_dje
j^[ceZ_\_[hMIjeki[iiec[e\j^[fWhWc[j[hij^WjWh[Wbieki[Z_dj^[[ij_cW#
j_ede\j^[i_j[#if[Y_\_Y^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wb$:k[jeekhed]e_d]YWb_XhWj_ed
e\ j^[i[ fWhWc[j[hi" m[ WZ`kij[Z iec[ e\ j^[ \_l[ lWh_WXb[i edbo Xo X[ij `kZ][#
c[dj$ J^_i h[ikbj[Z _d W ceZ_\_YWj_ed e\ j^[ Z_Wc[j[h ]hemj^ fej[dj_Wb m_j^ W
]eeZW]h[[c[djX[jm[[deXi[hl[ZWdZfh[Z_Yj[Zc[WdZ_Wc[j[hi$J^[h[ikbj_d]
MIjelWbk[im[h[&$/,/'\ehj^[j^h[[ifhkY[fbeji"&$///*\ehX[[Y^[nf[h_c[dji
:FWdZG"WdZ&$+&./\ehX[[Y^[nf[h_c[dj:9$
È -ODELÈ%VALUATION )++
È
4HINNING
;l[d j^ek]^ j^[ j_c[ e\ h[celWb _i ademd \eh [l[ho _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ed j^[
fbeji"j^_i_d\ehcWj_edYekbZdejX[ki[Z\ehj^[Z[\_d_j_ede\j^_dd_d]i\ehj^[
fbejim^[h[dejh[[fei_j_edim[h[WlW_bWXb[$<ehX[[Y^fbejG"j^_dd_d]im[h[i_c#
kbWj[ZWYYehZ_d]jeh[YehZ[Zh[celWbi$<ehj^[h[cW_d_d]fbejiWhWdZecfei_#
j_ed_d]e\jh[[i_dYecX_dWj_edm_j^Wfh[Z[\_d[Zj_c[e\h[celWbe\_dZ_l_ZkWb
jh[[imekbZb[WZjei_]d_\_YWdjZ[l_Wj_edi\hecj^[eXi[hl[Zj^_dd_d]ijhWj[]o"\eh
[nWcfb[XoYh[Wj_d]]WfiWjiec[fbWY[iWdZb[Wl_d]el[hboZ[di[]hekfiWjej^#
[hi$9edi[gk[djbo"j^[ijWdZWhZWb]eh_j^cie\I?BL7m[h[ki[Zjei[b[Yj_dZ_l_Zk#
Wbjh[[i\ehh[celWb"Z[f[dZ_d]edj^_dd_d]ijhWj[]_[i$
<eh X[[Y^" i_ckbWj_edi Wffb_[Z j^_dd_d] \hec X[bem ed fbeji :9 WdZ :F#8
WdZj^_dd_d]\hecWXel[edfbej:F#9$9edi_ij[djm_j^eXi[hl[Zj^_dd_d]fhWY#
j_Y["^em[l[h"j^_dd_d]\hecX[bemmWiWffb_[Zedfbej:F#9Zkh_d]j^[f[h_eZ
m^[d>'&&hWd][ZX[jm[[d'.WdZ(*c$<ehifhkY["i_ckbWj_ediWffb_[Zj^_dd_d]
\hecX[bemedfbeji?I#7WdZD:WdZj^_dd_d]\hecWXel[edfbej?I#:$>em[l#
[h"Yedi_ij[djm_j^eXi[hl[Zj^_dd_d]fhWYj_Y["j^_dd_d]\hecX[bemmWiWffb_[Z
edfbej?I#:edj^[j^_dd_d]eYYWi_edWjW][-'$<ehWbbi_nfbejij^_dd_d]]hWZ[
mWiceZ[bb[ZXWi[Zedj^[eXi[hl[Zij[cdkcX[hZ[l[befc[dj<_]i$',$)WdZ
',$* ki_d] febodec_Wbi e\ kf je \_\j^ ehZ[h$ J^[ i_ckbWj[Z h[ZkYj_edi _d ij[c
dkcX[h_dZ_YWj[j^WjI?BL7h[fheZkY[ij^[eXi[hl[Zj^_dd_d]iik\\_Y_[djboWYYk#
hWj[bo<_]i$',$)WdZ',$*$
È
%VALUATIONÈ2ESULTS
J^[h[Wff[WhijeX[iWj_i\WYjehoW]h[[c[djX[jm[[dfh[Z_Yj[ZWdZeXi[hl[Z
gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[hi<_]i$',$)Ä',$+$J^_i_i[if[Y_Wbbojhk[\ehX[[Y^fbej
G<_]$',$+m^[h[Z[l_Wj_ediWh[m_j^_dW\[mY[dj_c[jh[ij^hek]^ekjj^[i_ck#
bWj_edf[h_eZ$Ceije\j^_iZ[l_Wj_ed_iYWki[ZXoed[jh[["m^_Y^]h[mckY^\Wij#
[hj^WdWbbe\j^[ej^[hiWdZYedi[gk[djbomWikdZ[hfh[Z_Yj[ZXoj^[ceZ[b$7b#
iej^[Z[l_Wj_edie\fh[Z_Yj[Z\heceXi[hl[Zc_d_ckcWdZcWn_ckcZ_Wc[j[hi
Wh[YWki[ZXoW\[mjh[[i]hem_d][_j^[hckY^\Wij[hehckY^ibem[hj^WdWbbej^#
[hi$M^[dj^[i[jh[[iWh[h[cel[Z_dj^_dd_d]i"eXi[hl[ZWdZfh[Z_Yj[ZcWn_cW
WdZc_d_cWW]h[[ckY^X[jj[h<_]$',$+$
J^[j[dZ[dYojeel[hfh[Z_Yjc_d_ckcZ_Wc[j[hi_dceij[nf[h_c[djicWoX[
YWki[ZXoj^[j^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^ci_dI?BL7X[_d]ijh_Yj[h_dj^_dd_d]\hecX[bem
j^WdeXi[hl[Zedj^[fbeji$El[hWbb"j^[eXi[hl[ZZ[l_Wj_edi_dZX^WdZXWiWbWh[W
Wh[ceh[b_a[boZk[je_dWYYkhWj[if[Y_\_YWj_ede\j^_dd_d]ijhWj[]_[i_dj^[ceZ#
[bhkdiWi_dZ_YWj[ZXoj^[icWbb[hZ[l_Wj_edi\ehfbejG<_]$',$+"m^[h[i_ck#
bWj_ediZ_Zdejh[boedj^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^ci$J^[c_ii_d]jh[[fei_j_edi_dceije\
ekh[nf[h_c[djWbfbejiZedejWbbemWceh[h[Wb_ij_Yj^_dd_d]_dI?BL7"WdZj^ki
fh[l[djWceh[ijh_Yj[lWbkWj_ede\j^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^ceZ[b$
?dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[h[i_ZkWbi\ehZX^WdZ^[_]^j_dX[[Y^fbejG<_]$',$+"h_]^j
_dZ_YWj[ edbo \eh W \[m _dZ_l_ZkWbi kdWYY[fjWXb[ fh[Z_Yj_edi el[h j^[ '&&#o[Wh
)+, #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
&IGÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈMODELÈEVALUATIONÈFORÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈ&ULLÈLINESÈ-ODELÈPREDICTIONSÈDASHEDÈ
LINESÈOBSERVATIONSÈ&ORÈDBHÈDOTTEDÈLINESÈREFERÈTOÈPREDICTEDÈMINIMUMÈANDÈMAXIMUMÈDIAMETERÈ
ANDÈDOTSÈTOÈOBSERVEDÈMINIMAÈANDÈMAXIMAÈ4HEÈRANGEÈOFÈPREDICTEDÈMINIMAÈANDÈMAXIMAÈISÈDUEÈ
TOÈTHEÈSTOCHASTICÈNATUREÈOFÈ3),6!
È -ODELÈ%VALUATION )+-
&IGÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈMODELÈEVALUATIONÈFORÈBEECHÈ&ULLÈLINESÈ-ODELÈPREDICTIONSÈDASHEDÈLINESÈOB
SERVATIONSÈ&ORÈDBHÈDOTTEDÈLINESÈREFERÈTOÈPREDICTEDÈMINIMUMÈANDÈMAXIMUMÈDIAMETERÈANDÈDOTSÈ
TOÈOBSERVEDÈMINIMAÈANDÈMAXIMAÈ4HEÈRANGEÈOFÈPREDICTEDÈMINIMAÈANDÈMAXIMAÈISÈDUEÈTOÈTHEÈ
STOCHASTICÈNATUREÈOFÈ3),6!
)+. #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
&IGÈÈ 2ESULTSÈ OFÈ MODELÈ EVALUATIONÈ FORÈ BEECHÈ EXPERIMENTÈ 1È &ULLÈLINESÈ -ODELÈ PREDICTIONSÈ
DASHEDÈLINESÈOBSERVATIONSÈ&ORÈDBHÈDOTTEDÈLINESÈREFERÈTOÈPREDICTEDÈMINIMUMÈANDÈMAXIMUMÈDI
AMETERÈANDÈDOTSÈTOÈOBSERVEDÈMINIMAÈANDÈMAXIMAÈ4HEÈRANGEÈOFÈPREDICTEDÈMINIMAÈANDÈMAXIMAÈ
ISÈDUEÈTOÈTHEÈSTOCHASTICÈNATUREÈOFÈ3),6!È2IGHTÈ2ESIDUALSÈAREÈFORÈÈINDIVIDUALÈTREES
È 3CENARIOÈ!NALYSESÈOFÈ#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE )+/
i_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ$7iWbh[WZoc[dj_ed[Z"ed[fWhj_YkbWhbo\Wij]hem_d]jh[[mWi
i[l[h[bokdZ[hfh[Z_Yj[Z$7dkcX[he\icWbb[hjh[[ia[fj]hem_d]_dZ_Wc[j[hWdZ
^[_]^j_dj^[i_ckbWj_edim^[h[Wi_dh[Wb_joj^[oijW]dWj[Z_cc[Z_Wj[bofh_ehje
j^[_hh[celWb$El[hWbb"j^[i[Z[l_Wj_edi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i^WZedboc_deh_d\bk#
[dY[edijWdZlWbk[i<_]$',$+"b[\j$
È
3CENARIOÈ!NALYSESÈOFÈ#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE
9edl[hi_ed e\ [l[d#W][Z DehmWo ifhkY[ cWo X[ YWhh_[Z ekj _d dkc[heki
mWoiZ[f[dZ_d]ed"\eh[nWcfb["i_j[YedZ_j_edi"fh[l_ekiijWdZcWdW][c[dj"WdZ
cWdW][c[djfhWYj_Y[i_dj^[ikhhekdZ_d]\eh[ij$J^_iijkZo_iXWi[ZedWceZ[b
ijWdZbeYWj[Z_dj^[m[ij[hdfWhje\:[dcWhaed\ehc[h^[Wj^bWdZ"m^_Y^_iYed#
i_Z[h[ZWfWhj_YkbWhboZ_\\_Ykbj[dl_hedc[dj\ehYedl[hi_ede\ifhkY[$J^[fheX#
b[cih[bWj[jej^[cWdW][c[dje\j^[eh_]_dWbijWdZWim[bbWijej^[[ijWXb_i^c[dj
e\Wd[mYhefe\ed[ehceh[Z_\\[h[djjh[[if[Y_[i$
I_bl_YkbjkhWb Y^Wbb[d][i \eh j^[ eh_]_dWb ijWdZ e\ DehmWo ifhkY[ _dYbkZ[
ibem ]hemj^ Zk[ je iWdZo ie_bi" [nj[di_l[ heej WdZ Xkjj hej" WdZ W ^_]^ h_ia e\
m_dZj^hem$Je[dikh[fheZkYj_ede\c[hY^WdjWXb[j_cX[hm^_b[jho_d]jeh[ZkY[
j^[ h_ia e\ m_dZj^hem" DehmWo ifhkY[ _i kikWbbo j^_dd[Z ^[Wl_bo \hec X[bem Wj
h[]kbWh_dj[hlWbikdj_bj^[ijWdZh[WY^[iW^[_]^je\Wffhen$'+c1W\j[hmWhZij^_d#
d_d]_iZ_iYedj_dk[Z$
J^[[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZ[Whbo]hemj^e\h[][d[hWj_edcWoX[^Wcf[h[Zi[l[h[#
bo Xo Z[[h Xhemi_d] WdZ j^[ \h[gk[dj eYYkhh[dY[ e\ bWj[ \heij$ J^[i[ _d\bk[dY[i
cWa[jhWZ_j_edWbYb[Wh#Ykjj_d]b[iiZ[i_hWXb[$7iWh[ikbj"Zkh_d]h[][d[hWj_edi^[b#
j[hmeeZjh[[iWh[kikWbboh[jW_d[Z_dijWdZij^WjWh[Yedi_Z[h[Zik\\_Y_[djboijWXb[
WdZ^[Wbj^o$7bj[hdWj_l[bo"j^[ijWdZcWoX[h[][d[hWj[ZXofWhj_WbYb[WhYkjifhe#
]h[ii_d]_ddWhhem"Wbj[hdWj[ijh_fi$EdYb[Wh#YkjWh[Widkhi[jh[[icWoX[fbWdj[Z
jefhej[Yjj^[oekd]Yhefjh[[i$
?dj^[YWi[e\Yedl[hi_ed"j^[d[nj][d[hWj_ed_ie\j[dfbWdd[ZjeYedi_ije\ed[
ehceh[if[Y_[ij^WjWh[ceh[ijWXb[j^WdifhkY["ikY^Wiej^[hYed_\[hif[Y_[i\eh
j_cX[hfheZkYj_edehZ[Y_Zkekijh[[i$Kd\ehjkdWj[bo"j^[i[if[Y_[iWh[e\j[dceh[
i[di_j_l[je^Whi^i_j[YedZ_j_ediikY^WibWj[\heij"j^kih[_d\ehY_d]j^[d[[Z\eh
i^[bj[hjh[[iZkh_d]Yedl[hi_ed$Ceije\j[d"dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ede\ifhkY[m_bb[i#
jWXb_i^Wced]j^[fbWdj[ZkdZ[hijeh[ojh[[i$J^ki"WdZW]W_dZk[je^Whi^YedZ_#
j_edi\ehjh[[]hemj^"ceh[j^Wded[][d[hWj_ede\\eh[ijcWoX[h[gk_h[Zjeh[WY^
j^[Z[i_h[Z\eh[ijjof["m^_Y^_ie\j[d[dl_iW][ZjeYecfh_i[iec[a_dZe\kd[#
l[d#W][Z"c_n[ZijWdZi$
È
4HEÈ-ODELÈ3TAND
J^[ ceZ[b ijWdZ Yecfh_i[i '^W e\ W h[][d[hWj_ed [nf[h_c[dj beYWj[Z _d
=bkZij[Z fbWdjWj_ed [nf[h_c[dj de$ '+'(" Z[di[ i^[bj[hmeeZ1 8hkdd[h [j Wb$
(&&)$J^[ijWdZmWi[ijWXb_i^[Z_d'/*,XofbWdj_d]WdZikXi[gk[djbocWdW][Z
),& #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
WYYehZ_d]jej^[iY^[Zkb[ekjb_d[ZWXel[$J^[ijWdZmWi+/o[WhiebZWjj^[ed#
i[je\Yedl[hi_ed$
7jj^Wjj_c[Wbbjh[[im[h[c[Wikh[Z\ehZ_Wc[j[hWjXh[Wij^[_]^jWdZiec[
jh[[i m[h[ iWcfb[Z \eh ^[_]^j c[Wikh[c[dj$ 9hemd Z_c[di_edi m[h[ Z[h_l[Z
\hecj^[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^je\[WY^jh[["ki_d][gkWj_edi\hecI?BL7Fh[jpiY^
[j Wb$ (&&($ J^[ fei_j_ed e\ [WY^ jh[[ mWi ][d[hWj[Z XWi[Z ed _d\ehcWj_ed ed
ifWY_d]WjijWdZ[ijWXb_i^c[dj"ademdfei_j_edie\fbWdj_d]hemi"WdZj^[ademd
i[gk[dY[e\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[im_j^_d[WY^hem$Jh[[fei_j_edim_j^_d[WY^hemm[h[
ZhWmdWjhWdZec\hecWbbfeii_Xb[fei_j_edi"jWa_d]_djeWYYekdjeh_]_dWbifWY_d]
WdZj^[WYjkWbYhemdi_p[$J^[b[d]j^e\j^[fbWdj_d]hemi[Yj_edi"m^[h[hWdZec
fei_j_edim_j^_dj^[hemm[h[Wii_]d[Z"mWi*+c\ehed[^Wb\e\Wbbjh[[iWdZ'(
eh(+c\ehj^[h[cW_d_d]^Wb\$
7l[hW][ jh[[ ^[_]^j mWi [ij_cWj[Z Wj ',$-c" >'&& mWi '.$-c" ij[c dkcX[h
+(.%^W":](($,Yc"XWiWbWh[W('$(c(%^W"WdZijWdZ_d]lebkc['-+$,c)%^W$?c#
c[Z_Wj[bofh_ehjej^_ic[Wikh[c[djj^[ijWdZmWij^_dd[Z^[Wl_bojeij_ckbWj[
Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^WdZfh[fWh[\ehYedl[hi_ed$J^_dd_d]im[h[YWhh_[Zekj_djme
Ykji"h[ZkY_d]ij[cdkcX[h\hecWffhen_cWj[bo'"&+&%^Wjej^[Ykhh[djb[l[b$
J^[Yedl[hi_edmWi_d_j_Wj[ZWjWj_c[m^[dj^[ijWdZ^WZ`kijijWhj[ZfheZkY#
_d]ik_jWXb[j_cX[hZ_c[di_edi"_dZ_YWj_d]j^WjekhiY[dWh_eiZedejh[\b[Yjl[ho
[Whboehfh[#cWjkh[Yedl[hi_ed$
È
#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE
<eh j^_i ijkZo m[ Yedi_Z[h[Z j^h[[ Z_\\[h[dj Yedl[hi_ed ijhWj[]_[i0 kd_\ehc
i^[bj[hmeeZ"_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZ"WdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]$<eh[WY^e\
j^[i["Wbj[hdWj_l[^Whl[ij_d]ehhejWj_edb[d]j^Yh_j[h_Wm[h[Wffb_[Z$?dWbbYWi[i"
Yedl[hi_edmWi_d_j_Wj[ZWjj^[iWc[j_c[WdZ_dYbkZ[ZkdZ[hfbWdj_d]e\X[[Y^
ifWY_d]((c"Wl[hW][jh[[^[_]^j&$+cWdZj^[feii_Xb[eYYkhh[dY[e\dWjkhWb
h[][d[hWj_ede\DehmWoifhkY[$
È
5NIFORMÈ3HELTERWOOD
M_j^j^[kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZioij[cj^[oekd]jh[[iWh[[ijWXb_i^[ZkdZ[h
j^[i^[bj[he\j^[fh[l_eki][d[hWj_ed$J^[ioij[c_cfb_[iWkd_\ehcef[d_d]e\
j^[YWdefo\ehh[][d[hWj_edfkhfei[iCWjj^[mi'//*$?dekhiY[dWh_eijkZ_[i"
YWdefo ef[d_d] jWa[i fbWY[ ]hWZkWbbo Zkh_d] W dkcX[h e\ Ykji" ][d[hWbbo m_j^
j^_dd_d]\hecX[bem$J^[\WijWdZj^[ibeml[hi_ediZ_\\[h_dj^[if[[Ze\h[ZkY#
j_ed_di^[bj[hmeeZZ[di_jo<_]$',$,$?dYedjhWijje_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZWdZ
jWh][j Z_Wc[j[h ^Whl[ij_d]" j^[ kd_\ehc i^[bj[hmeeZ iY[dWh_ei Ze dej Z_\\[h _d
ZkhWj_ede\j^[i^[bj[hmeeZf^Wi[$FbWdj_d]_iZed[eded[eYYWi_ededboWjW][
+/"h[ikbj_d]_dWh[][d[hWj_edf[h_eZe\(&o[Whikdj_bh[celWbe\j^[bWiji^[bj[h#
meeZjh[[i$
È 3CENARIOÈ!NALYSESÈOFÈ#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE ),'
È
)RREGULARÈ3HELTERWOOD
È
4ARGETÈ$IAMETERÈ(ARVESTING
J^[ j[hc jWh][j Z_Wc[j[h ^Whl[ij_d] _cfb_[i j^_dd_d] \hec WXel[ ki_d] _d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[Z_Wc[j[hWij^[cW_d^Whl[ij_d]Yh_j[h_ed\eh[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[
>[Z_d]WdZ@WaeXi[d'/.&$=[d[hWbbo"j^[jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h_iY^ei[djeX[[Ye#
dec_YWbbo efj_cWb$ JWh][j Z_Wc[j[h ^Whl[ij_d] _i Wffb_[Z edbo Zkh_d] j^[ \_dWb
fWhje\j^[hejWj_ed"_$[$"\ebbem_d]j^[ehZ_dWhoiY^[Zkb[e\j^_dd_d]\hecX[bem$
=[d[hWbboif[Wa_d]"jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]i^ekbZh[ikbj_di[l[hWbb_]^jj^_d#
d_d]iWji^ehj_dj[hlWbiWdZYWhh_[Zekj\ehWd[nj[dZ[Zf[h_eZ$?dYedjhWijjeej^#
[hi_bl_YkbjkhWbioij[ci"jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]Ze[idejfkj[cf^Wi_iedj^[
[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZZ[l[befc[dje\h[][d[hWj_ed$?Z[Wbbo"h[][d[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^[i
j^hek]^ekjj^[m^eb[f[h_eZe\jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij$
JWh][j Z_Wc[j[h iY[dWh_ei _dYbkZ[ ^Whl[ij_d] Yh_j[h_W e\ )& eh )+Yc Z_Wc[#
j[h Wj Xh[Wij ^[_]^j$ =[d[hWbbo" )+Yc _i Yedi_Z[h[Z [Yedec_YWbbo ik_jWXb[" m^_b[
)&Yc_iYedi_Z[h[Ziec[m^Wjfh[#cWjkh[$Fh[b_c_dWhoi_ckbWj_edhkdiZ[ced#
ijhWj[Zj^WjWjWh][jZ_Wc[j[he\*&Ych[ikbji_dWh[celWbf[h_eZkfjeWdW][e\
'+&o[Whi"W\Whjeebed]f[h_eZZkh_d]m^_Y^j^[ijWdZmekbZceijfheXWXboijWhj
Z_i_dj[]hWj_d]$JWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ijmWii_ckbWj[Z\eh*&WdZ,&o[Whi\eh)&#
),( #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
WdZ)+#YcjWh][jZ_Wc[j[hi"h[if[Yj_l[bo"Wjj^[[dZh[cel_d]Wbbel[hijeh[ojh[[i
_dj^[h[cW_d_d]ijWdZWjedY[<_]$',$,$?dj^[iY[dWh_eij^[ijWdZim[h[kdZ[h#
fbWdj[Zm^[dj^[XWiWbWh[W^WZX[[dh[ZkY[Zje'+c(%^Wehb[ii$DWjkhWbh[][d#
[hWj_ed[ijWXb_i^[ZX[\eh[j^_ij_c[mWidejYedi_Z[h[Z_dj^[iY[dWh_ei$
È
-ODELÈ3PECIFICATIONS
EkhijkZ_[i\eYkicW_dboedj^[h[celWbe\j^[el[hijeh[o"m^_Y^_ii_ckbWj#
[ZXoI?BL7"Xkj_dYbkZ[_d]hemj^e\j^[kdZ[hijeh[o$;WhbokdZ[hijeh[o]hemj^
_ii_ckbWj[ZXoj^[h[][d[hWj_edi_ckbWjehH[][d[hWjeh"WdZikXi[gk[djbojhWdi#
\[hh[ZjeI?BL7WjW^[_]^je\Wffhen_cWj[bo+c$IjWdZZ[l[befc[dj\ebbem_d]h[#
celWbe\j^[bWijjh[[i_dj^[el[hijeh[o_ii_ckbWj[Zki_d]I?BL7edbo$J^ki"j^[
iY[dWh_ei_dYbkZ[jmef^Wi[i0ed[m^[h[I?BL7WdZH[][d[hWjehhkdfWhWbb[bje
fh[Z_Yjj^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[el[hijeh[oWdZj^[h[][d[hWj_ed"h[if[Yj_l[bo"WdZ
ed[m^[h[j^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[oekd]ijWdZ_ifh[Z_Yj[ZXoI?BL7Wbed[$
È
3),6!È3PECIFICATIONS
<ebbem_d] W YecfWh_ied e\ i[l[hWb [nf[h_c[dji _d j^[ l_Y_d_jo e\ =bkZij#
[Z"j^[beYWb^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wb\ehifhkY[mWii[j[gkWbjej^WjeXi[hl[Z_d
j^_dd_d] [nf[h_c[dj == h[fh[i[dj_d] ]eeZ ^[Wj^bWdZ i_j[i$ >[_]^j ]hemj^ _d
j^_i[nf[h_c[djYbei[bocWjY^[Zj^[eXi[hl[Z^[_]^jZ[l[befc[dje\j^[i_ck#
bWj[ZijWdZ$<[mbeYWbeXi[hlWj_edim[h[WlW_bWXb[\ehX[[Y^$J^[i[_dYbkZ[Zj^[
ceZ[bijWdZm_j^h[Y[djbofbWdj[ZX[[Y^kdZ[hWi^[bj[he\ifhkY[[nf[h_c[dj
'+'(18hkdd[h[jWb$(&&)"Woekd]X[[Y^ijWdZ[nf[h_c[dj'&&/eXi[hl[Z\eh
)(o[WhiW\j[h[ijWXb_i^c[djedWYb[Wh\[bb[ZWh[W"WdZ_dl[djehoZWjW\hech[bW#
j_l[boebZijWdZi$<_hij"ZWjW\hecj^[oekd]X[[Y^ijWdZ'&&/m[h[WZ`kij[Zje
WYYekdj\ehj^[X[jj[h]hemj^YedZ_j_edikdZ[hWi^[bj[hmeeZ$D[nj"j^[WZ`kij#
[ZZWjWm[h[YecX_d[Zm_j^eXi[hlWj_edi\hecebZijWdZijefhel_Z[Wd[ij_cWj[
e\j^[beYWb^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wb\ehX[[Y^$J^[h[ikbj_d]^[_]^j]hemj^fej[d#
j_Wbi\ehj^[jmeif[Y_[i\ehifhkY[073),$,"a3&$&(+."f3'$//(1\ehX[[Y^073))$+"
a3&$&)-."f3($/(-m[h[Ybei[je[WY^ej^[h"m_j^Z_\\[h[dY[ie\b[iij^Wd(ckf
jeW]['(&o[Whi$
J^[i_j[#if[Y_\_Yh[ZkYj_ede\j^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_WbmWii[jjeMIje
3&$/,/'\ehifhkY["Yedi_ij[djm_j^h[ikbji\ehj^h[[fbeji_dj^[=bkZij[ZFbWdjW#
j_edZkh_d]ceZ[b[lWbkWj_ed$J^_ii[jj_d]h[ikbj[Z_dMIje3&$.(),\ehX[[Y^$
=hemj^fh[Z_Yj_edi\ehj^[oekd]ijWdZi[c[h]_d]\hecj^[i_ckbWj[ZYedl[h#
i_edm[h[YWhh_[Zed\ehWf[h_eZe\*+o[Whi$:kh_d]h[celWbe\j^[el[hijeh[o)&
h[fb_YWj_edie\[WY^iY[dWh_em[h[YWbYkbWj[Zje[b_c_dWj[j^[[\\[Yjie\ijeY^Wij_Y
ceZ[bYecfed[dji$Edbo'&h[fb_YWj_edim[h[YWbYkbWj[Z\ehj^[ikXi[gk[djf^Wi[
X[YWki[e\hkd#j_c[h[ijh_Yj_edi$J^[Ykjj_d]YoYb[mWii_ckbWj[ZedW+#o[WhXW#
i_i"Yehh[ifedZ_d]jej^[ceZ[e\ef[hWj_ed\ehI?BL7$J^_dd_d]ie\j^[h[ikbj_d]
c_n[ZijWdZie\oekd]X[[Y^WdZifhkY[m[h[i_ckbWj[Zki_d]I?BL7Wb]eh_j^ci
È 3CENARIOÈ!NALYSESÈOFÈ#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE ),)
\ehWYhef#jh[[#eh_[dj[Zj^_dd_d]\hecWXel[$Ed[^kdZh[ZYhefjh[[ie\X[[Y^
WdZ'+&Yhefjh[[ie\ifhkY[m[h[i[b[Yj[ZWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\j^_if^Wi[$J^[^_]^
dkcX[he\Yhefjh[[imWiZk[jej^[l[ho[WhboW][\ehYhefjh[[i[b[Yj_ed$J^_d#
d_d]im[h[i[jjeYecfh_i[jmeYecf[j_jehif[hYhefjh[[ed[WY^j^_dd_d]eYYW#
i_ed"m_j^j^[]eWbe\cW_djW_d_d][gkWbfhefehj_edie\Xej^if[Y_[i$
I_ckbWj_edhkdim_j^I?BL7Z_Zdej_dYbkZ[dWjkhWbcehjWb_joZkh_d]el[hije#
h[oh[celWbX[YWki[e\j^[[Whbo"^[Wloj^_dd_d]iWdZ\h[gk[dj^Whl[ij_d]$?dj^[
ikXi[gk[djf^Wi["ceZ[bb_d]e\dWjkhWbcehjWb_jomWid[[Z[Z"fWhj_YkbWhboZk[je
WZ[di[WZc_njkh[e\dWjkhWbbo[ijWXb_i^[ZDehmWoifhkY[$
M_j^j^[kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZiY[dWh_ei"Wif[Y_WbWb]eh_j^cmWiki[Zjei[#
b[Yjel[hijeh[ojh[[ijeh[cW_d_dj^[ijWdZ$J^[Wb]eh_j^cY^eei[ii^[bj[hjh[[i
jeX[h[jW_d[Z\hecWb_ije\Wbbjh[[iiehj[ZXoZX^"ijWhj_d]\hecj^[bWh][h[dZ
WdZZ_iYWhZ_d]jh[[ij^WjWh[Ybei[hj^WdW]_l[dc_d_ckcZ_ijWdY[\hecWbh[WZo
i[b[Yj[Zjh[[i$?dj^[YWi[e\jh[[ie\_Z[dj_YWbi_p[Ybei[je[WY^ej^[h"ed[jh[[_i
Y^ei[dWjhWdZec$J^[Wb]eh_j^c_i_cfb[c[dj[Z_dj^[H[][d[hWjehie\jmWh[$
È
2EGENERATORÈ3PECIFICATIONS
&IGÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈSCENARIOÈANALYSISÈ&ULLÈLINESÈFASTÈSCENARIOSÈDASHEDÈLINESÈSLOWÈSCENARIOSÈTHICKÈ
LINESÈSPRUCEÈTHINÈLINESÈBEECHÈFORÈDBHÈLINESÈWITHOUTÈDOTSÈ$GÈOFÈTHEÈREMOVEDÈTREESÈLINESÈWITHÈDOTSÈ
$ÈARITHMETICÈMEANÈDIAMETERÈOFÈTHEÈÈTHICKESTÈTREESÈPERÈHECTARE ÈOFÈTHEÈREMAININGÈTREES
È 3CENARIOÈ!NALYSESÈOFÈ#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE ),+
È
3CENARIOÈ2ESULTS
È
/VERSTOREYÈ2EMOVAL
:kh_d]h[celWbe\j^[el[hijeh[o"ijWdZXWiWbWh[WWdZijWdZlebkc[hWf_Z#
bo Z[Yb_d[Z \eh j^[ \Wij l[hi_edi e\ kd_\ehc WdZ _hh[]kbWh i^[bj[hmeeZ" _dZ_YWj#
_d]j^WjYkhh[dj]hemj^Z_ZdejYecf[diWj[\ehj^[j^_dd_d]i<_]$',$,$<ehj^[
ibeml[hi_edie\Xej^ioij[ciWdZ\ehjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]Wj)&Yc"Ykh#
h[dj]hemj^Yecf[diWj[Z\ehj^[h[cel[Zjh[[iZkh_d]Wd_d_j_Wbf[h_eZe\kfje
(&o[Whi"cW_djW_d_d]ijWdZXWiWbWh[WWdZijWdZlebkc[WjWijWXb[b[l[b$<ehj^[
)+#YcjWh][jZ_Wc[j[hiY[dWh_e"XWiWbWh[WWdZlebkc[_d_j_Wbbo_dYh[Wi[ZYedi_Z#
[hWXboX[YWki[e\j^[eXl_ekibWYae\j^_Yajh[[iWjj^WjijW][$?dfhWYj_Y["j^[fe#
j[dj_Wblebkc[e\jh[[iWjehWXel[)+YcmekbZX[jeeicWbbZkh_d]j^_if[h_eZje
WYjkWbboYWhhoekj^Whl[ij_d]ef[hWj_edi$9ecfWh_iede\j^[jmeZ_\\[h[djjWh][j
Z_Wc[j[hiY[dWh_eiijhed]bo_dZ_YWj[ij^WjWjWh][je\)&YccWob[WZjefh[#cW#
jkh[Z[fb[j_edm_j^WYedi_Z[hWXb[h[ZkYj_ed_dj^[^Whl[ij_d]fej[dj_Wb$
:_Wc[j[h Z[l[befc[dj Zkh_d] h[celWb e\ j^[ el[hijeh[o Ybei[bo h[\b[Yji j^[
eh_]_dWbiY[dWh_eZ[\_d_j_edi<_]$',$,$<ehj^[kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZj^[Z_Wc[#
j[he\Yhefjh[[iij[WZ_bo_dYh[Wi[ij^hek]^ekj"Xkjj^[h[Wff[WhijeX[b_jjb[Z_\\[h#
[dY[X[jm[[dj^[\WijWdZj^[ibeml[hi_edm^[dYecfWh_d]j^['&&j^_Ya[ijjh[[i
f[h^[YjWh[$J^_i\_dZ_d]_cfb_[ij^Wjj^[WXel[#c[dj_ed[Z]hemj^h[ZkYj_edfh_#
cWh_bo_ibeYWj[ZedicWbb[hYhefjh[[iehh[ikbji\hecj^[h[celWbe\icWbb[hYhef
jh[[i$7jj^[iWc[j_c[j^[hWf_Zi^[bj[hmeeZh[ZkYj_ed_cc[Z_Wj[bob[WZijeh[#
celWbe\jh[[ie\WYedi_Z[hWXb[i_p[1h[ikbj_d]_dW\WijZ[fb[j_ede\j^[]hemj^
fej[dj_Wb$J^[fWjY^fWjj[hde\j^[_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZeXl_ekibob[WZijeb[ii
]hemj^edj^[Yhefjh[[iWiYecfWh[Zjekd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZWdZjWh][jZ_Wc[#
j[h^Whl[ij_d]"WdZjei_c_bWh^Whl[ijWdZYhefjh[[Z_c[di_edi$M_j^jWh][jZ_Wc#
[j[h^Whl[ij_d]j^[^Whl[ij[Zjh[[iXoZ[\_d_j_edWh[j^[j^_Ya[ijjh[[i_dj^[ijWdZ$
?dfhWYj_Y["jeeckY^lebkc[cWoWYYkckbWj[f[h_eZ_YWbbo"b[WZ_d]jeWj_]^jXWb#
WdY[X[jm[[dj^[cW_dj[dWdY[e\Yedi_ij[dj^Whl[ij_d]Yh_j[h_Wj^[jWh][jZ_Wc[#
j[hWdZj^[Z[i_h[jeZeedbob_]^jj^_dd_d]i$M^[d_d_j_Wj_d]jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Wh#
l[ij_d]"j^[fheXb[ccWohWj^[hX[j^[effei_j[X[YWki[j^[h[Wh[jee\[mjh[[ie\
Wik_jWXb[i_p[jecWa[[WY^_dZ_l_ZkWbj^_dd_d]ef[hWj_edfhe\_jWXb[$
J^[jejWblebkc[fheZkYj_ede\el[hijeh[ojh[[iZkh_d]j^[_hh[celWb_iikc#
cWh_i[Z _d JWXb[',$($ =[d[hWbbo" j^[ \Wij[h l[hi_edi Wh[ b[ii fheZkYj_l[$ :kh_d]
j^[\_hij(&o[Whij^[ibeml[hi_edie\kd_\ehcWdZ_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZWdZj^[
)&#YcjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]Wh[h[cWhaWXbo[gkWb_dlebkc[]hemj^"hWd]#
_d]X[jm[[d.$-WdZ/$&c)^WÄ'o[WhÄ'$JWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]Wj)+YcWf#
f[WhijeX[j^[ceij_dj[h[ij_d]Wbj[hdWj_l[$M_j^j^_ih[]_c["j^_dd_d]i_dYbkZ[
edbo jh[[i e\ kd_\ehc i_p[ WdZ ]eeZ fh_Y[" m^_b[ lebkc[ ]hemj^ _i cW_djW_d[Z
Wj W h[bWj_l[bo ^_]^ b[l[b j^hek]^ekj$ :kh_d] j^[ \_hij (&o[Whi j^_i h[]_c[ fhe#
l_Z[ij^[^_]^[ij]hemj^hWj["WdZYedi_Z[h_d]j^[m^eb[f[h_eZkdj_b\_dWb^Wh#
l[ij"ij_bbcW_djW_diWdWjjhWYj_l[b[l[be\lebkc[]hemj^$El[hWbb"j^[WjjhWYj_l[#
d[iie\[WY^e\j^[i[Wbj[hdWj_l[icWoX[ceZ_\_[ZXoej^[h\WYjehi"\eh[nWcfb[
),, #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
4ABLEÈÈ6OLUMEÈPRODUCTIONÈDURINGÈOVERSTOREYÈREMOVAL
3CENARIOÈ 0ERIODICÈVOLUMEÈINCREMENTÈMÈHAnÈYEARn
È 9EARSÈnÈ &ROMÈÈYEARSÈTOÈ &ROMÈÈYEARSÈTOÈ
È È FINALÈHARVESTÈ FINALÈHARVEST
5NIFORMÈSHELTERWOOD
)RREGULARÈSHELTERWOOD
4ARGETÈDIAMETERÈHARVEST
h_iae\m_dZj^hemeh^Whl[ij_d]Yh_j[h_Wj^WjZedejh[bWj[Z_h[YjbojeijWdZb[l#
[bY^WhWYj[h_ij_Yi$
È
5NDERSTOREYÈ$EVELOPMENT
J^[ X[[Y^ iWfb_d]i fbWdj[Z kdZ[h j^[ i^[bj[h WdZ j^[ dWjkhWbbo [ijWXb_i^[Z
DehmWoifhkY[iWfb_d]i]h[m_dceijiY[dWh_ei_dik\\_Y_[djdkcX[hijeWXel[j^[
+c^[_]^jj^h[i^ebZm_j^_d(&o[Whi<_]$',$,$Edbo\ehj^[ibeml[hi_ede\j^[
_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZiY[dWh_emWi_jd[Y[iiWhojehkdi_ckbWj_edi\eh(+o[Whije
h[WY^j^[+#cb[l[b$Kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZWdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]h[ikbj[Z
_d_dj_cWj[c_njkh[ie\fbWdj[ZX[[Y^WdZdWjkhWbboh[][d[hWj[ZifhkY[<_]$',$-"
b[\j$ J^[ _hh[]kbWh i^[bj[hmeeZ iY[dWh_ei h[ikbj[Z _d W Zec_dWdY[ e\ X[[Y^ _d
j^[[WhbofbWdj[ZfWjY^[iWdZ\_dWbboWjejWbWXi[dY[e\X[[Y^_dj^[fWjY^[ij^Wj
m[h[YkjbWj[h<_]$',$-"h_]^j$>[h["ifhkY[[ijWXb_i^[Z_dikY^^_]^Z[di_j_[iW\#
j[hj^[\_hijfWjY^[i^WZef[d[Zkfj^[ijWdZj^Wjj^[fbWdj[ZX[[Y^iWfb_d]iZ_Z
dejikhl_l[$
J^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[h[ikbj_d]c_njkh[e\oekd]X[[Y^WdZifhkY[_il[ho
i_c_bWh\ehj^[iY[dWh_eie\kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZWdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]
<_]$',$,"edbom_j^Wj_c[bW]\ehj^[)+#YcjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h$J^[\Wijl[hi_ede\
È $ISCUSSION ),-
&IGÈÈ#ROWNÈMAPÈOFÈYOUNGÈSTANDSÈASÈAÈRESULTÈOFÈSCENARIOÈSIMULATIONSÈ,EFTÈ5NIFORMÈSHELTER
WOODÈnÈFASTÈRIGHTÈIRREGULARÈSHELTERWOODÈnÈFASTÈ"LACKÈ.ORWAYÈSPRUCEÈGREYÈBEECHÈCROSSESÈSTEMÈ
POSITIONÈCIRCLESÈCROWNÈPROJECTION
j^[kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZh[ikbji_dW^_]^[hfhefehj_ede\DehmWoifhkY[WiYec#
fWh[Zjej^[ibeml[hi_ed$J^[i_c_bWh_joe\h[ikbji\hecjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij#
_d]WdZkd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZh[][d[hWj_edcWoX[_d\bk[dY[ZXoj^[\WYjj^Wjj^[
dWjkhWbh[][d[hWj_ede\ifhkY[fh_ehjefbWdj_d]e\X[[Y^_idej_dYbkZ[Z_dj^[
iY[dWh_ei$M^_b[Wbb\ekhiY[dWh_eim[h[_d_j_Wj[Zm_j^ekjj^[fh[i[dY[e\WZlWdY[
h[][d[hWj_ed" j^_i mekbZ _d fhWYj_Y[ [ijWXb_i^ fhe]h[ii_l[bo" Z[f[dZ_d] ed b_]^j
YedZ_j_ediWdZj^[ifWj_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\i[[Zjh[[i"eh_jc_]^jeYYkhceh[ehb[ii
i_ckbjWd[ekiboel[hbWh][hWh[Wi$J^[_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZiY[dWh_eZ_\\[hi\hec
j^[ej^[hjmeioij[ci_dYh[Wj_d]oekd]ijWdZim_j^WZec_dWdY[e\ifhkY[el[h
X[[Y^$J^_iZec_dWdY[_i[l[dceh[fhedekdY[Zm_j^j^[ibeml[hi_ed$
È
$ISCUSSION
È
-ODELÈ#ALIBRATIONÈANDÈ%VALUATION
:k[ je j^[_h Yecfb[n dWjkh[" _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ceZ[bi Wh[ e\j[d ^WhZ je YWb_#
XhWj[fhef[hboWdZ[l[d^WhZ[hje[lWbkWj[jeWdoYedi_ij[djijWdZWhZIY^c_Zj
[jWb$"j^_iLeb$$
H[]WhZ_d]YWb_XhWj_edZWjW"ifWj_Wbbo[nfb_Y_j]hemj^ceZ[bie\j[dh[gk_h[ZW#
jWj^WjWh[\h[gk[djbokdWlW_bWXb[$?dekhYWi[j^[c_ii_d]jh[[fei_j_edi\ehceij
fbejifh[l[dj[ZWijh_Yj[lWbkWj_ede\j^[]hemj^ceZ[bÉifh[Z_Yj_l[f[h\ehcWdY[$
),. #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
EkhWbj[hdWj_l["je[lWbkWj[j^[ceZ[bXWi[Zedfh[Z_Yj_edij^Wj_dlebl[Zj^[i_c#
kbWjehÉij^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^ci"YekbZdejiWj_i\WYjeh_boh[fbWY[Wd[lWbkWj_edXWi[Z
ed_d\ehcWj_eded_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[fei_j_ediWdZj_c[e\j^_dd_d]$J^[j[ijih[#
l[Wb[Zj^Wjj^_dd_d]Wb]eh_j^ci_cfb[c[dj[Z_dI?BL7Z_ZdejYecfb[j[bocWjY^
j^[eXi[hl[Zj^_dd_d]ijhWj[]_[ie\ekh[nf[h_c[djWbfbeji$Ceijb_a[bo"j^_ih[ikbj
ij[ciceh[\hecj^[\WYjj^Wj[l[d[nf[h_c[djWbj^_dd_d]ie\j[dZ[l_Wj[_dfhWY#
j_Y[ \hec feijkbWj[Z fh_dY_fb[i j^Wd \hec Z_\\[h[dY[i _d j^_dd_d] ijhWj[]_[i X[#
jm[[d=[hcWdoWdZ:[dcWha$Ceh[el[h"j^[j[ijie\I?BL7h[l[Wb[ZWl[hoi[di_#
j_l[h[ifedi[e\j^[]hemj^ceZ[bjeZ_\\[h[dY[i_dj^_dd_d]ijhWj[]_[iWdZfh_d#
Y_fb[i$M[Yedi_Z[hj^_ijeX[WcW`ehijh[d]j^e\ifWj_Wbbo[nfb_Y_j]hemj^ceZ[bi
WdZWd[Y[iiWhoYedZ_j_ed\ehWffb_YWj_ede\j^[i[ceZ[bijec_n[Z#if[Y_[iijWdZi
WdZkd[l[d#W][Zi_bl_Ykbjkh[$
<eh ed[ X[[Y^ [nf[h_c[dj jh[[ fei_j_edi m[h[ WlW_bWXb[ WdZ j^[h[\eh[ j^_d#
d_d]iYekbZX[i_ckbWj[ZWieXi[hl[Zedj^[fbej$?dj^_ij[ij"ceZ[bfh[Z_Yj_edi
e\c[WdZ_Wc[j[hWdZXWiWbWh[Wm[h[_d]eeZW]h[[c[djm_j^eXi[hl[ZlWbk[i
j^hek]^ekjW'&&#o[Whi_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ$?jmekbZX[Z[i_hWXb[jej[ijI?BL7_dj^[
iWc[mWo\ehceh[fbejiX[\eh[ekhYWb_XhWj[Zl[hi_ede\I?BL7_iki[Z\eh\eh[ij
cWdW][c[djfbWdd_d]$
H[]WhZ_d] ceZ[b Yecfb[n_jo" _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ceZ[bi ][d[hWbbo YecX_d[ W
dkcX[he\ceZ[bYecfed[djiehceZkb[i$9ecX_d[Zm_j^j^[bWh][_d\bk[dY[e\
ijWdZijhkYjkh[ed]hemj^fh[Z_Yj_edi\eh_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ij^_ii_jkWj_edfh[l[dji
ijh_Yjj[ij_d]e\_dZ_l_ZkWbceZ[bYecfed[djiehe\j^[Yecfb[j[]hemj^i_ckbW#
jeh$<eh[nWcfb["j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nki[Zjeh[ZkY[j^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^fe#
j[dj_Wb je WYjkWb Z_Wc[j[h ]hemj^ YWddej X[ j[ij[Z _dZ[f[dZ[djbo e\ j^[ ^[_]^j
]hemj^ ceZ[b$ >[_]^j h[bWj_edi^_fi X[jm[[d Yecf[j_d] jh[[i Wh[ Wd _cfeh#
jWdjfWhje\cWdoYecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[i$I?BL7Wbieki[iWYjkWbjh[[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ
^[_]^jjefh[Z_YjYhemdZ_c[di_edi"m^_Y^"_djkhd"Wh[fWhje\j^[YWbYkbWj_ede\
j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n$EkhWffheWY^jej^[fheXb[ce\_dj[hjm_d[ZceZ[bYec#
fed[djimWijej[ijj^[Yecfb[j[ceZ[bWdZYecfWh[ijWdZb[l[bfh[Z_Yj_edim_j^
eXi[hlWj_edi$J^_iWffheWY^e\Yekhi[b_c_jij^[lWb_Z_joe\ekhj[ijijej^[YedZ_#
j_edih[fh[i[dj[ZXoekheXi[hlWj_edi$
M_j^_dekhb_c_j[Zj[ije\I?BL7m[\ekdZde_dZ_YWj_edie\W\W_bkh[e\j^[
Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nehej^[hceZ[bYecfed[djikdZ[h:Wd_i^YedZ_j_edi$KdZ[h
j^[Wiikcfj_edj^Wjj^_iWbie^ebZi_dceh[ijh_Yjj[ijie\j^[ceZ[b"_jYWdX[Yed#
YbkZ[Zj^WjWYWb_XhWj_ede\j^[^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h]hemj^fej[dj_Wbjeh[]_ed#
WbYedZ_j_ediYekbZX[ik\\_Y_[djjeWffboI?BL7jej^[iWc[jh[[if[Y_[i_dej^#
[hh[]_edi$
9b[Whbo"j^[hWd][e\i_j[YedZ_j_edi\ehekh[nf[h_c[dji_ijeedWhhem\ehW
fhef[hYWb_XhWj_ede\j^[i_j[#if[Y_\_Y^[_]^j]hemj^fej[dj_Wb"ehj^[i_j[lWh_WXb[i
Zedejmehafhef[hboX[YWki[e\b_c_j[ZlWh_Wj_ed_di_j[YedZ_j_edim_j^_d:[d#
cWha$J^_ib_c_jWj_ed^ebZi\ehDehmWoifhkY[Wim[bbWi\ehX[[Y^$
È $ISCUSSION ),/
È
$EMONSTRATIONÈOFÈTHEÈ'ROWTHÈ-ODEL
Ed[eX`[Yj_l[e\j^_iijkZomWijeZ[cedijhWj[j^[YWfWX_b_joe\Wd_dZ_l_Zk#
Wbjh[[ceZ[bjefh[Z_Yjjh[[WdZijWdZh[ifedi[ijeYecfb[ni_bl_YkbjkhWbfhWY#
j_Y[i_dc_n[ZWdZckbj_#W][ZijWdZi$7deXl_ekih[gk_h[c[dj_ij^Wjfh[Z_Yj_edi
i^ekbZX[WYYkhWj[WdZh[b[lWdj\eh\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y[$J^[dWjkh[e\ekhijkZ_[i
Ze[i dej Wbbem W ijh_Yj eh j^ehek]^ j[ij_d]" Xkj h[ikbji Wh[ Y[hjW_dbo m_j^_d j^[
hWd][ e\ ekh [nf[YjWj_edi$ <eh fhWYj_YWb fkhfei[i ceh[ \b[n_Xb[ j^_dd_d] Wb]e#
h_j^cimekbZX[Z[i_hWXb["WdZj^[d[[Z\ehiceej^[hjhWdi_j_ediX[jm[[dh[][d#
[hWj_edceZ[bWdZjh[[]hemj^ceZ[b_i\eh[i[[WXb[$M_j^j^[h[][d[hWj_edceZ[b"
j^[h[WbieWff[WhijeX[Wd_cc[Z_Wj[d[[Zje_Z[dj_\oik_jWXb["b[iiZ[jW_b[Z_dfkj
lWh_WXb[iWdZjeZ[l[befiWcfb_d]fheY[Zkh[i\ehki[_def[hWj_edWb\eh[ijho$
È
#ONVERSIONÈ3ILVICULTURE
9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoifhkY[ijWdZiXokdZ[hfbWdj_d]e\X[[Y^_dW]hWZk#
Wbboef[d[ZijWdZe\DehmWoifhkY[YWdX[WYYecfb_i^[Z_dZ_\\[h[djmWoi$Ekh
iY[dWh_eWdWboi_iZ[cedijhWj[Zi_nWbj[hdWj_l[ie\kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZ"_hh[]k#
bWhi^[bj[hmeeZ"WdZjWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]$J^[fh[Z_Yj_edie\]hemj^WdZ
h[][d[hWj_edZ_Zdeji^emWdob_c_jWj_edijeWikYY[ii\kbYedl[hi_ed"Xkjh[ikbj[Z
_dZ_\\[h[dj]hemj^fWjj[hdiWdZif[Y_[iYecfei_j_edi$
:kh_d]el[hijeh[oh[celWb"ijWdZlebkc[]hemj^Z[f[dZicW_dboed^em\Wij
j^[h[celWbfhe]h[ii[i"Xkjjeiec[[nj[djWbieed^Whl[ij_d]Yh_j[h_WWdZj^[ifW#
j_WbZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\h[i_ZkWbYhefjh[[i$J^[ikf[h_ehWbj[hdWj_l[_dj[hcie\leb#
kc[]hemj^_ijWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]Wj)+Yc$?dYedjhWij"m_j^WhWf_Zij[c
dkcX[hh[ZkYj_ed_dWkd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZeh^Whl[ij_d]XWi[ZedWicWbb#i_p[Z
jWh][jZ_Wc[j[hj^[]hemj^fej[dj_Wbgk_YaboZ[j[h_ehWj[i"h[ikbj_d]_dikXefj_cWb
[Yedec_Yh[jkhdWjj^[ijWdZb[l[b$>em[l[h"jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]Wj)&Yc
ij_bb[gkWbiehekjf[h\ehcij^[(&#o[Whibeml[hi_ede\kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZ"Xkj
_iib_]^jbo_d\[h_ehYecfWh[Zjej^[ibeml[hi_ede\_hh[]kbWhi^[bj[hmeeZ$
J^[ Z_ijh_Xkj_ed e\ ]hemj^ je _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[i eXl_ekibo Z[f[dZi ed j^[_h
ifWj_Wb WhhWd][c[dj$ ?dj[h[ij_d]bo" j^[ \Wij _hh[]kbWh i^[bj[hmeeZ m_j^ _ji Z[di[
fWjY^[ie\el[hijeh[ojh[[ib[WZijeX[jj[hlebkc[]hemj^j^Wdj^[\Wijkd_\ehc
i^[bj[hmeeZ m_j^ jh[[i ceh[ [l[dbo Z_ijh_Xkj[Z el[h j^[ m^eb[ Wh[W Wbj^ek]^
j^[o[WY^bWij(&o[Whi$D[nj"Zkh_d]j^[_d_j_Wb(&o[Whi"jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij#
_d]Wj)+Ycb[WZijeWceh[[\\_Y_[djkj_b_iWj_edWdZZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\ijWdZlebkc[
]hemj^j^WdZe[ij^[ibeml[hi_ede\kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZ$
7YYehZ_d] je fh[Z_Yj_edi \hec H[][d[hWjeh" Wbb i_n iY[dWh_ei h[ikbj[Z _d W
oekd] ijWdZ e\ fbWdj[Z X[[Y^ c_n[Z m_j^ W l[ho Z[di[ dWjkhWb h[][d[hWj_ed e\
DehmWoifhkY[$J^[^_]^Z[di_joWdZifWj_Wbbokd_\ehcZ_ijh_Xkj_ede\j^[ifhkY[
h[][d[hWj_edc_]^jX[el[hboefj_c_ij_Y$Edj^[ej^[h^WdZ"j^_iekjYec[_idej
kdYecced _d h[Y[dj dWjkhWb h[][d[hWj_edi e\ ifhkY[ ed \ehc[h ^[Wj^bWdZ _d
:[dcWha$
)-& #(!04%2È 9edl[hi_ede\DehmWoIfhkY[079Wi[IjkZo_d:[dcWha
J^[X[[Y^ÄifhkY[c_njkh[e\j^[h[ikbj_d]ijWdZi_ie\cW`eh_cfehjWdY[\eh
\kjkh[cWdW][c[djefj_edi$J^[fhefehj_ede\j^[jmeif[Y_[ilWh_[i_dekhiY[#
dWh_eh[ikbjiWYYehZ_d]jej^[if[[Ze\Yedl[hi_edWdZj^[Yedl[hi_edc[j^eZWf#
fb_[Z$<ehj^ei[jh[Wjc[djij^WjYh[Wj[Wh[bWj_l[bokd_\ehcef[d_d]e\j^[ijWdZ
kd_\ehci^[bj[hmeeZ"jWh][jZ_Wc[j[h^Whl[ij_d]"j^[bed][hh[][d[hWj_edf[h_#
eZe\j^[ibem[hiY[dWh_ei][d[hWbbo\WlekhiX[[Y^$H[ikbji\ehj^[_hh[]kbWhi^[b#
j[hmeeZ ioij[c _dZ_YWj[ Zec_dWdY[ e\ dWjkhWb h[][d[hWj_ed e\ DehmWo ifhkY[
el[hfbWdj[ZX[[Y^$J^_icWoX[Wle_Z[ZXo[Whb_[hfbWdj_d]eh]hekfm_i[i[fWhW#
j_ede\j^[jmeif[Y_[i"\eh[nWcfb[j^hek]^fh[#Yecc[hY_Wbj^_dd_d]$H[]kbWj_ed
e\j^[c_njkh[YekbZX[WYYecfb_i^[Z_dI?BL7edboXoj^_dd_d]\ehYhefjh[[iWjW
l[ho[WhboW][$7ffb_YWj_ede\j^_ij^_dd_d]ijhWj[]ojej^[ceZ[bijWdZmekbZh[#
\b[Yjceh[ijhed]boWd[[ZjeWY^_[l[WZ[i_h[Zif[Y_[ic_njkh[j^WdWdWYjkWbZ[#
i_h[jeWffboj^[ijhWj[]o_d\eh[ijhofhWYj_Y[_dm[ij[hd:[dcWha$
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTSÈ 4HISÈ WORKÈ WASÈ PARTÈ OFÈ THEÈ %5È PROJECTÈ )4-È )MPLEMENTINGÈ 4REEÈ 'ROWTHÈ
-ODELSÈASÈ&ORESTÈ-ANAGEMENTÈ4OOLS ÈUNDERÈCONTRACTÈNOÈ1,+
#4
È7EÈGRATEFULLYÈ
ACKNOWLEDGEÈPERMISSIONÈFROMÈ0ROFESSORÈ$RÈ(ANSÈ0RETZSCHÈTHEÈ4ECHNICALÈ5NIVERSITYÈOFÈ-UNICHÈ
TOÈCALIBRATEÈANDÈUSEÈHISÈMODELÈ3),6!ÈFORÈ$ANISHÈCONDITIONSÈ-ODELÈSELECTIONÈANDÈCALIBRATIONÈASÈ
WELLÈASÈDEFINITIONÈANDÈEVALUATIONÈOFÈCONVERSIONÈSCENARIOSÈBENEFITEDÈGREATLYÈFROMÈNUMEROUSÈDIS
CUSSIONSÈWITHÈOURÈPROJECTÈPARTNERSÈINÈFORESTRYÈPRACTICEÈFORESTÈSUPERVISORÈ*ENSÈ#HRISTIANÈ"RIANDÈ
0ETERSENÈ &ELDBORGÈ .ATIONALÈ &ORESTÈ $ISTRICTÈ ANDÈ FORESTÈ SUPERVISORÈ -ORTENÈ %LBK
*RGENSENÈ
0ALSGAARDÈ .ATIONALÈ &ORESTÈ $ISTRICTÈ ANDÈ WITHÈ $RÈ +IMÈ $RALLEÈ THEÈ $ANISHÈ .ATIONALÈ &ORESTÈ ANDÈ
.ATUREÈ!GENCYÈANDÈ$RÈ.IELSÈ(EDINGÈTHEÈ$ANISHÈ#ENTREÈFORÈ&ORESTÈ,ANDSCAPEÈANDÈ0LANNINGÈ
&INALLYÈWEÈWOULDÈLIKEÈTOÈTHANKÈ+ARSTENÈ0LAUBORGÈ4HOMASÈ.ORD
,ARSENÈ$RÈ6IVIANÈ+VISTÈ*OHANN
SENÈOTHERÈCOLLEAGUESÈINÈ-UNICHÈANDÈ(RSHOLMÈANDÈOTHERÈPARTNERSÈINÈTHEÈPROJECTÈFORÈVALUABLEÈ
HELPÈANDÈSUPPORTÈ4WOÈANONYMOUSÈREVIEWERSÈHELPEDÈIMPROVEÈTHEÈMANUSCRIPT
2EFERENCES
"RUNNERÈ !È È 2EGENERATORÈ È nÈ È AÈ FORESTÈ REGENERATIONÈ MODELÈ %5
PROJECTÈ .AT
-ANÈ h.ATURE
BASEDÈMANAGEMENTÈOFÈBEECHÈINÈ%UROPEvÈ1,+
#4
ÈWORKÈPACKAGEÈ70Èh3TANDÈ
MODELvÈDELIVERABLEÈÈh2EPORTÈONÈARCHITECTUREÈANDÈSENSITIVITYÈANALYSISÈOFÈGAPÈREGENERATIONÈ
MODELvÈDELIVERABLEÈÈh#ALIBRATIONÈPARAMETERÈSETSÈFORÈUSEÈINÈ70ÈvÈÈPPÈHTTPWWW
FLECKVLDKNATMANHTMLGETFILEASPVID
"RUNNERÈ !È 3RENSENÈ )(È 3KOVSGAARDÈ *0È È 3KRMSTILLINGÈ OGÈ UNDERPLANTNINGÈ AFÈ RDGRANÈ IÈ
'LUDSTEDÈ PLANTAGEÈ &ORSGÈ NOÈ È !NLGSRAPPORTÈ NOÈ È ;3HELTERWOODÈ REGENERATIONÈ
ANDÈ ADVANCEÈ PLANTINGÈ OFÈ .ORWAYÈ SPRUCEÈ INÈ 'LUDSTEDÈ 0LANTATIONÈ %XPERIMENTÈ NOÈÈ
%STABLISHMENTÈ2EPÈ=È)NTERNALÈREPORTÈ$ANISHÈ&ORESTÈANDÈ,ANDSCAPEÈ2ESEARCHÈ)NSTITUTEÈ
(RSHOLMÈ$ENMARKÈÈPP
#ALLESENÈ )È È (VORÈ GRORÈ HVILKEÈ TRERÈ BEDSTÈ "ONITERINGÈ AFÈ JORDÈ FORÈ BREDYGTIGTÈ SKOVBRUGÈ
#ENTERÈFORÈ3KOVÈ,ANDSKABÈOGÈ0LANLGNINGÈ3KOV
ÈOGÈ,ANDSKABSKONFERENCENÈÈPPÈÈ
nÈ
#ALLESENÈ)È È4RANSFERÈFUNCTIONSÈFORÈCARBONÈSEQUESTRATIONÈNITROGENÈRETENTIONÈANDÈNUTRIENTÈ
RELEASEÈCAPABILITYÈINÈFORESTÈSOILSÈBASEDÈONÈSOILÈTEXTUREÈCLASSIFICATIONÈ0H$È4HESISÈ4HEÈ2OYALÈ
6ETERINARYÈANDÈ!GRICULTURALÈ5NIVERSITYÈ#OPENHAGENÈ$ENMARKÈÈPP
2EFERENCES )-'
-ODELLINGÈTHEÈ'ROWTHÈÈ
OFÈ1UERCUSÈFRAINETTOÈINÈ'REECE
=h[]eh9^Wjp_f^_b_ff_Z_i'"=Wlh__bIfohe]bek(
!BSTRACTÈ#OPPICEÈFORESTSÈAREÈDEGRADEDÈLOWÈOUTPUTÈFORESTSÈ4HEYÈFULFILLÈPOORLYÈTHEIRÈENVI
RONMENTALÈSOCIALÈANDÈPRODUCTIVEÈFUNCTIONSÈANDÈCONVERSIONÈINTOÈHIGHÈFORESTSÈWILLÈIMPROVEÈ
THEMÈ1UERCUSÈFRAINETTOÈ4EN ÈISÈTHEÈMOSTÈIMPORTANTÈOAKÈINÈ'REECEÈREPRESENTINGÈÈOFÈTHEÈ
STANDINGÈVOLUMEÈ4HEÈOBJECTIVEÈOFÈTHISÈCHAPTERÈISÈTOÈINTRODUCEÈTHEÈNEWÈMODELINGÈTECHNOL
OGYÈ INÈ 'REECEÈ ANDÈ TOÈ ADAPTÈ THEÈ !USTRIANÈ INDIVIDUAL
TREEÈ DISTANCE
DEPENDENTÈ SIMULATORÈ
-/3%3ÈFORÈMODELINGÈTHEÈDEVELOPMENTÈOFÈGk$\hW_d[jjeÈ4HEÈDATAÈFORÈTHISÈSTUDYÈCAMEÈFROMÈ
ÈPERMANENTÈEXPERIMENTALÈPLOTSÈACROSSÈ'REECEÈ&OURÈMODELSÈDRIVINGÈTHEÈGROWTHÈOFÈ Gk$
\hW_d[jjeÈ WEREÈ CONSIDEREDÈ DIAMETERÈ ANDÈ HEIGHTÈ INCREMENTÈ CROWNÈ RECESSIONÈ ANDÈ MORTAL
ITYÈ MODELSÈ .ON
LINEARÈ REGRESSIONÈ METHODOLOGYÈ WASÈ USEDÈ FORÈ PARAMETERÈ ESTIMATIONÈ 4HEÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈ OFÈ DIAMETERÈ ANDÈ HEIGHTÈ INCREMENTÈ MODELSÈ WASÈ BASEDÈ ONÈ THEÈ ASSUMPTIONÈ
THATÈTHEÈPOTENTIALÈINCREMENTÈFORÈAÈGIVENÈTREEÈISÈREDUCEDÈBYÈAÈFUNCTIONÈOFÈTHEÈCROWNÈRATIOÈ
ASÈANÈALLOMETRICÈMULTIPLIERÈREPRESENTINGÈTHEÈPASTÈGROWINGÈCONDITIONSÈANDÈANÈOVERSTOCKINGÈ
MULTIPLIERÈ REPRESENTINGÈ THEÈ CURRENTÈ COMPETITIONÈ CONDITIONSÈ 4HEÈ CROWNÈ MODELÈ PREDICTSÈ
FUTUREÈ CROWNÈ LENGTHÈ DEPENDINGÈ ONÈ TREEÈ HEIGHTÈ CROWNÈ RATIOÈ ANDÈ THEÈ COMPETITIONÈ INDEXÈ
&INALLYÈINÈTHEÈMORTALITYÈMODELÈTREESÈAREÈSTATEDÈTOÈBEÈEITHERÈALIVEÈORÈDEADÈANDÈTHEÈRESPEC
TIVEÈPREDICTEDÈPROBABILITYÈOFÈMORTALITYÈINÈTHEÈNEXTÈGROWINGÈPERIODÈISÈBOUNDÈBETWEENÈÈANDÈ
È4HEREFOREÈAÈLOGISTICÈEQUATIONÈWASÈFITTEDÈUSINGÈTHEÈCROWNÈRATIOÈCOMPETITIONÈINDEXÈANDÈ
DIAMETERÈASÈINDEPENDENTÈVARIABLESÈ4HEÈSIMULATORÈ$29-/3ÈAÈDERIVATIVEÈSOFTWAREÈPROGRAMÈ
OFÈTHEÈ!USTRIANÈSIMULATORÈ-/3%3ÈINCORPORATESÈTHEÈDEVELOPEDÈMODELSÈFORÈGk$\hW_d[jjeÈINÈ
AÈ USER
FRIENDLYÈ INTERFACEÈ !FTERÈ THEÈ SELECTIONÈ OFÈ AÈ STANDÈ THEÈ USERÈ HASÈ THEÈ OPPORTUNITYÈ TOÈ
PROJECTÈTHEÈSTANDÈINÈTWO
ÈORÈTHREE
DIMENSIONALÈFORMÈAPPLYÈSILVICULTURALÈTREATMENTSÈANDÈPRO
DUCEÈRESULTSÈINÈTABULARÈORÈGRAPHICALÈFORMÈGk$\hW_d[jjeÈSTANDSÈCANÈBEÈEFFICIENTLYÈMODELLEDÈ
WITHÈ DISTANCE
DEPENDENTÈ ANDÈ SITE
POTENTIALÈ APPROACHESÈ 4REEÈ SIZEÈ GROWTHÈ ANDÈ COMPETI
TIONÈAREÈTHEÈMAINÈDRIVINGÈVARIABLESÈINÈPREDICTINGÈGROWTHÈANDÈDEVELOPMENTÈOFÈGk$\hW_d[jjeÈ
4HEÈSIMULATORÈ$29-/3ÈISÈCAPABLEÈOFÈDESCRIBINGÈTHEÈEVOLUTIONÈANDÈFUTUREÈSTANDÈDYNAMICSÈOFÈ
Gk$\hW_d[jjeÈUNDERÈDIFFERENTÈSTANDÈDENSITIESÈANDÈSILVICULTURALÈSCENARIOS
' [#cW_b0]h[]eh6\h_$]h
( <eh[ijH[i[WhY^?dij_jkj["+-&&,LWii_b_aW"J^[iiWbed_a_"=h[[Y[
>kX[hj>Wi[dWk[h;Z$
IkijW_dWXb[<eh[ijCWdW][c[dj
=hemj^CeZ[bi\eh;khef[
Ifh_d][h#L[hbW]8[hb_d>[_Z[bX[h](&&,
)-* #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
È
)NTRODUCTION
9eff_Y[ cWdW][c[dj e\ ^WhZmeeZ \eh[iji ^Wi X[[d YWhh_[Z ekj _d ;khef[
i_dY[j^[HecWd[hWFWfW_eWddek'/)/$J^[h[][d[hWj_ede\Yeff_Y[\eh[ijiZ[#
f[dZiedj^[WX_b_joe\ijkcfijefheZkY[ifhekji\hec[_j^[hZehcWdjehWZl[d#
j_l[XkZi"m^_Y^je][j^[hm_j^heejikYa[hih[fh[i[djl[][jWj_l[Wi[nkWbh[][d#
[hWj_ed$
9eff_Y[\eh[ijiWh[Yedi_Z[h[ZWibemekjfkj\eh[iji$J^[i^ehj[hj^[hejWj_edi
j^[bem[hj^[fheZkYj_l_jo_dj^[bed]hkd[if[Y_Wbbom^[ddeYWh[_ifhel_Z[ZWdZ
j^[]hWp_d]e\b_l[ijeYa_idejh[]kbWj[Z$>[Wl_boZ[]hWZ[ZYeff_Y[ii^em"_dWZZ_#
j_edjefeehij[cgkWb_jo"bemij[cZ[di_j_[iWdZfeehie_bYel[hW]["Yh[Wj_d]^_]^
hWj[ie\[hei_ed$?diec[h[]_ediYeff_Y[im[h[WXWdZed[ZW\j[hMehbZMWh??"WdZ
j^[oZ[l[bef[ZWi^_]^dWjkhWb\eh[iji$
?d Y[djhWb ;khef[ Yedl[hi_ed e\ Yeff_Y[ \eh[iji _dje ^_]^ \eh[iji ijWhj[Z _d
j^[ '.j^ Y[djkho$ 7YYehZ_d] je =[eh]efekbei '/*&" j^[ \_hij fkXb_i^[Z ZeYk#
c[dj_d=h[[Y[edYeff_Y[cWdW][c[dj_ij^WjXoCWhaefekbeiWdZC_Y^Wbefek#
bei'/(-$
E\j^['(eWaif[Y_[ij^WjeYYkfo'"*-'".)/^Weh(($,e\j^[\eh[ijWh[We\
=h[[Y["Gk[hYki\hW_d[jjeJ[d$_ij^[ceij_cfehjWdjed[$?jh[fh[i[dji')e\
j^[ijWdZ_d]lebkc[C_d_ijhoe\7]h_Ykbjkh['//($J^[]h[Wj[hfWhje\j^_iWh#
[W_icWdW][ZWiYeff_Y[\eh[ijfheZkY_d]\k[bmeeZWdZj_cX[h_dYecX_dWj_ed
m_j^ ]hWp_d]$ Gk$ \hW_d[jje _d =h[[Y[ ]hemi ed cekdjW_di \hec Wffhen_cWj[bo
*&&je.&&c$
7i W Yedi[gk[dY[ e\ j^[ WXel[" de [\\ehj ^Wi X[[d cWZ[ je Z[l[bef ]hemj^
WdZ o_[bZ ceZ[bi \eh lWh_eki jof[i e\ eWa ijWdZi$ Ceij e\ j^[ fh[l_eki ijkZ_[i
m[h[YedY[hd[Zm_j^WdWboi_ie\j^[_hijhkYjkh[:W\_i'/,,ehi_bl_YkbjkhWb\[W#
jkh[i9^Wjp_f^_b_ff_Z_iWdZIfohe]bek'//,$?j_ii[b\#[l_Z[djj^Wjj^[h[^WX_b_#
jWj_ede\Yeff_Y[\eh[iji_i_cfeii_Xb[m_j^ekj^kcWd_dj[hl[dj_edWdZfbWdj_d]$
J^[Y^e_Y[e\if[Y_[i\ehfbWdj_d]_ih[ijh_Yj[ZjeW\[mYed_\[hi"cW_dbof_d["Yo#
fh[iiWdZY[ZWhif[Y_[i"m^_Y^c[[jj^[fh[h[gk_i_j[ie\bemdkjh_[djZ[cWdZi"
gk_Yaie_bYel[hW][WdZj_cX[hfheZkYj_ed$J^[Y^Wd][\heced[i_bl_YkbjkhWbioi#
j[cYeff_Y[jeWdej^[hed[^_]^\eh[ij_iYWbb[ZYedl[hi_ed<_]$'-$'$
J^[Yedl[hi_ed_dje^_]^\eh[ijj^hek]^j[dZ_d]e\j^[[n_ij_d]Yeff_Y[ijWdZi
_iWd[Yebe]_YWbboiekdZc[j^eZe\h[^WX_b_jWj_ed"h[Yecc[dZ[Z_db[iiZ[]hWZ[Z
Yeff_Y[\eh[iji$?\gkWb_joe\ijWdZi_i_dik\\_Y_[dj"j^[oYWdX[Yb[Wh#YkjWdZj^[h[#
W\j[hj[dZ[ZWi^_]^\eh[iji$J^[_djheZkYj_ede\Yed_\[hi_iWd[Yebe]_YWbi^ehj#
Yec_d]e\j^[c[j^eZ$D[l[hj^[b[ii"_\dWj_l[l[][jWj_ed_idejZ[ijheo[ZZkh_d]
j^[Yedl[hi_edmeha"_dZ_][dekiif[Y_[im_bbh[fbWY[j^[Yed_\[hi_dj^[d[njhe#
jWj_edi$
:W\_i '/,, h[Yecc[dZi j^[ Wffhefh_Wj[ h[^WX_b_jWj_ed j[Y^d_gk[ WYYehZ#
_d] je j^[ i_j[ gkWb_jo WdZ j^[ ijhkYjkh[ e\ j^[ Yeff_Y[ ijWdZi0 _d i[l[h[bo Z[#
]hWZ[Zi_j[i"Yedl[hi_edXo_djheZkY_d]Yed_\[hi"m^_b[_dX[jj[hi_j[i"Yedl[hi_ed
j^hek]^j[dZ_d]$J^[i[i_bl_YkbjkhWbh[Yecc[dZWj_edim[h[YehheXehWj[ZXoIjW#
cek'/.'\hecj^[[Yedec_Yfe_dje\l_[m$D[l[hj^[b[ii"I[hhWZW[jWb$'//(
h[Yecc[dZ\ehIfW_dYedl[hi_ede\Gk$_b[n"Gk$\W]_d[WWdZGk$foh_dW_YWYef#
f_Y[i_dje^_]^\eh[ijm_j^ekjYedi_Z[h_d]i_j[Yh_j[h_W$
È )NTRODUCTION )-+
&IGÈÈ#ONVERSIONÈOPTIONSÈFORÈCOPPICEÈFORESTSÈINTOÈHIGHÈFORESTSÈ$IRECTÈCONVERSIONÈNATURAL
LYÈPREFERREDÈWHENÈTREEÈSPECIESÈCOMPOSITIONÈANDÈPHENOTYPESÈOFÈEXISTINGÈTREESÈAREÈACCEPTABLEÈ
INÈQUALITYÈANDÈQUANTITYÈ)FÈNOTÈTHENÈARTIFICIALÈREGENERATIONÈBYÈCHANGINGÈOFÈSPECIESÈMUSTÈBEÈCHO
SENÈ)NÈTHEÈFIRSTÈCASEÈTHEÈFOLLOWINGÈOPTIONSÈCANÈBEÈCHOSENÈ ÈPREPARATIONÈANDÈNATURALÈSEEDÈRE
GENERATIONÈWHENÈAÈSTANDÈPRODUCESÈSEEDSÈWEÈCANÈPREPAREÈTHEÈSTANDÈFORÈSEEDÈREGENERATIONÈ È
CLEAR
CUTÈWHENÈTHEÈQUALITYÈOFÈSTEMSÈISÈNOTÈSUFFICIENTÈBUTÈTREEÈDENSITYÈISÈHIGHÈANDÈGENETICÈMA
TERIALÈISÈGOODÈTHEÈSTANDÈCANÈBEÈCLEAR
CUTÈANDÈTHEREAFTERÈITÈISÈTREATEDÈASÈAÈHIGHÈFORESTÈ ÈTEND
INGÈSTANDSÈOFÈSUFFICIENTÈQUALITYÈCANÈBEÈTENDEDÈASÈAÈHIGHÈFORESTÈ)NDIRECTÈTHEÈCOPPICEÈSTANDÈGOESÈ
OVERÈANÈINTERMEDIATEÈPHASEÈCOPPICEÈWITHÈSTANDARDS ÈTOÈHIGHÈFORESTÈ!TÈEACHÈROTATIONÈADDITION
ALÈSTANDARDSÈAREÈSELECTEDÈ)NÈTHISÈWAYÈAFTERÈTWOÈTOÈFOURÈROTATIONSÈTHEÈWHOLEÈAREAÈISÈOCCUPIEDÈBYÈ
STANDARDSÈABLEÈTOÈREGENERATEÈWITHÈSEEDS
J^[WXWdZedc[dje\cekdjW_dekiWh[WiW\j[hMehbZMWh??h[ikbj[Z_dY[i#
iWj_ede\WdocWdW][c[dje\Yeff_Y[\eh[iji$J^_ijh[dZb[ZjeWd_cfhel[c[dj
e\j^[ijWdZijhkYjkh[iWdZj^[[Yebe]_YWbYedZ_j_edi_d][d[hWb"Xkj"edj^[ej^[h
^WdZ"_jb[ZjeWd_dYh[Wi[Z\_h[^WpWhZCehWdZ_d_'//.$9[iiWj_ede\j^[cWd#
W][c[dj\ehiec[j_c[_idejd[Y[iiWh_boZ[jh_c[djWb"Xkj_dj^[bed]j[hc_jYWd
^Wl[WZl[hi[Yedi[gk[dY[i\ehj^[Yeff_Y[\eh[iji$7iWh[ikbje\_dj[di_l[^kcWd
ki["\eh[ijemd[hi"feb_YocWa[hiWdZj^[fkXb_Ym_bbYeccedboZ[Y_Z[edj^[\k#
jkh[cWdW][c[dje\j^[Yeff_Y[\eh[iji_dehZ[hjeWZZh[ii[Yedec_Y"ieY_WbWdZ
[dl_hedc[djWbYedY[hdi$
H[^WX_b_jWj_ede\Yeff_Y[\eh[ijiijWhj[Z_d=h[[Y[_dj^['/(&i$I_dY['/).j^[
=h[[a<eh[ijI[hl_Y[^WicWZ[Wi_]d_\_YWdjWjj[cfjje_cfhel[Yeff_Y[\eh[iji[_#
j^[hXofbWdj_d]Yed_\[hiehXoj[dZ_d]e\j^[[n_ij_d]ijWdZi$
7\j[h,&o[Whie\Yedl[hi_edj^[h[^WiX[[dWfhec_d[dji^_\jWmWo\hecYbWi#
i_YWb fkh[" [l[d#W][Z Yeff_Y[ \eh[iji je kd[l[d#W][Z WdZ c_n[Z if[Y_[i ijWdZi$
)-, #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
>em[l[h""j^[h[_iWbWYae\ademb[Z][WXekjj^[Z[l[befc[dje\j^[i[\eh[ijiWi
m[bbWiWXekjj^[_hi_bl_Ykbjkh[$J^_i\WYjh[dZ[hij^[l[ho\[m=h[[ao_[bZjWXb[i
Z[i_]d[Z\ehYeff_Y[WdZ^_]^eWa\eh[ijiAeii[dWa_i'/)/17fWji_Z_i'//+kd#
h[b_WXb[\ehfh[Z_Yj_d]\eh[ij]hemj^$J^_i\WYj^WiYh[Wj[ZfheXb[ci_d\eh[ijcWd#
W][c[djfhWYj_Y[WdZZ[Y_i_ed#cWa_d]"b[WZ_d]jeWZ[WZ[dZWi\WhWij^[Yed#
ijhkYj_ede\cWdW][c[djfbWdi_iYedY[hd[Z$7d[mYedY[fjkWbWffheWY^jej^_i
fheXb[c_icWdZWjehojeZWo"ceh[j^Wd[l[h$
7d_ddelWj_l[c[j^eZe\fh[Z_Yj_d]j^[]hemj^e\[l[dehkd[l[d#W][Z"fkh[
ehc_n[Zif[Y_[iijWdZi_ijeZ[iYh_X[j^[ijWdZ]hemj^Z[l[befc[djWij^[ikc
e\lWh_Wj_edie\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[im_j^_dj^[ijWdZZ[f[dZ_d]edj^[Yecf[j_j_ed
Wjjh[[b[l[b$J^_iWffheWY^^Wib[ZjeWceZ[bm_j^_dYh[Wi[Z\b[n_X_b_jo_dijWdZ
]hemj^fh[Z_Yj_edi$
CeZ[b_d] e\ [Yebe]_YWb ioij[ci Z[iYh_X[i f^oi_YWb f^[dec[dW Xo c[Wdi e\
cWj^[cWj_YWb[gkWj_edi$Jme][d[hWbjof[ie\ceZ[biYWdX[Z_ij_d]k_i^[Z0j^ei[
Z[iYh_X_d]X[^Wl_ekhWdZj^ei[[nfbW_d_d]j^[ioij[c$:[iYh_fj_l[ceZ[bijhoje
cWjY^ioij[cX[^Wl_ekhm_j^ceZ[bX[^Wl_ekh$L[hoe\j[d"h[]h[ii_ed\kdYj_edi
Wh[ ki[Z _d j^_i Yedj[nj$ ;nfbWdWjeho ceZ[bi jho je Yehh[Yjbo [njhWYj [ii[dj_Wb
ijhkYjkh[ie\j^[ioij[cWdZh[Xk_bZj^[c_dj^[\ehce\WceZ[b$J^[WZlWdjW][
e\j^[bWjj[hWffheWY^_ij^[feii_X_b_jojeijkZoioij[cim_j^Z_\\[h[dj[dl_hed#
c[djWbYedZ_j_edi$CeZ[bie\j[dZ[iYh_X[l[hoYecfb[nioij[ci$J^ki"_j_id[Y[i#
iWhojeh[ZkY[j^[dkcX[he\ceZ[bb[ZfheY[ii[i$
7bj^ek]^i_cfb_\o_d]Wiikcfj_ediWh[d[Y[iiWho"dejWbbgk[ij_ediYWdX[Wd#
im[h[Zm_j^WY[hjW_dceZ[b_d]WffheWY^$Je]W_dWdel[hl_[me\j^[gkWb_joe\W
ceZ[b"i[l[hWbYh_j[h_W_dh[if[Yje\j^[W_ce\ceZ[b_d]i^ekbZX[\kb\_bb[Z$J^[
ZodWc_YX[^Wl_ekhe\j^[ceZ[bi^ekbZgkWb_jWj_l[bocWjY^j^Wje\j^[h[Wbioi#
j[c$Dkc[h_YWbWdZbe]_YWbceZ[bh[ikbjii^ekbZYehh[ifedZm_j^j^[\kdYj_edi
jWa_d]fbWY[_di_Z[j^[ioij[c$:[l_Wj_edii^ekbZX[[nfbW_dWXb[j^hek]^Wiikcf#
j_edicWZ[Zkh_d]ceZ[bXk_bZ_d]$I_ckbWj_edh[ikbjii^ekbZX[ki[\kbm_j^h[#
if[YjjeXej^fej[dj_WbWffb_YWj_edie\j^[ceZ[bWdZj^[W_ce\ceZ[bb_d]$
=hemj^ WdZ o_[bZ ceZ[bi Z[iYh_X[ \eh[ij ZodWc_Yi el[h j_c[ _$[$ ]hemj^"
cehjWb_jo"h[][d[hWj_edWdZWiieY_Wj[ZY^Wd][i_dj^[ijWdZWdZ^[dY[j^[o^Wl[
X[[dm_Z[boki[Z_d\eh[ijcWdW][c[djX[YWki[e\j^[_hWX_b_jojekfZWj[_dl[d#
jeh_[i" je fh[Z_Yj \kjkh[ o_[bZ WdZ je [nfbeh[ cWdW][c[dj Wbj[hdWj_l[i WdZ i_b#
l_YkbjkhWb efj_edi" j^ki fhel_Z_d] _d\ehcWj_ed \eh Z[Y_i_ed#cWa_d] 8kha^Whj
'//&1LWdYbWo'//*1F[d](&&&$9edi[gk[djbo"fh[Z_Yj_d]\kjkh[\eh[ij]hemj^kd#
Z[hZ_\\[h[djiY[dWh_ei_iWa[o[b[c[dje\ikijW_dWXb[\eh[ijcWdW][c[djA_c#
c_di'//&"'//-$
7ij^[cWdW][c[dje\Gk$\hW_d[jje\eh[ijicel[i\heci_cfb[jeceh[Yec#
fb_YWj[ZijhkYjkh[i"ceZ[hdjeebiYWdYedjh_Xkj[jeWceh[\b[n_Xb[WdZWYYkhWj[
fh[Z_Yj_ede\ijWdZZ[l[befc[dj$
J^[eX`[Yj_l[e\j^_iY^Wfj[h_ijeZ[iYh_X[j^[_ddelWj_l[ceZ[b_d]j[Y^deb#
e]o_d=h[[Y[WdZ^emWd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[]hemj^i_ckbWjeh^WiX[[dWZWfj[Z\eh
Gk$\hW_d[jje$
È -ATERIALSÈANDÈ-ETHODS )--
È
-ATERIALSÈANDÈ-ETHODS
È
$ATA
Gk$\hW_d[jje]hemi_dj^[l[][jWj_edped[e\Gk[hY[jWb_WfkX[iY[dj_i"m^_Y^
kikWbbo eYYkf_[i j^[ Wh[W X[jm[[d j^[ ped[i e\ Gk[hY[jWb_W _b_Y_i WdZ <W][jWb_W$
7YYehZ_d] je X_eYb_cWj_Y cWfi CWlhecWj_i '/.&" j^[ Yb_cWj[ e\ Gk$ \hW_d[jje
\eh[iji_iWjhWdi_j_ed\hecWjof_YWbC[Z_j[hhWd[WdjeWYedj_d[djWbYb_cWj[m_j^
^Whi^m_dj[hiWdZ^ejikcc[hi<_]$'-$($<heijWdZidemYWdYel[hj^[]hekdZ
\eh'je(cedj^i[WY^o[WhWdZj^[dkcX[he\ZhoZWoiZkh_d]j^[Zhek]^jf[h_#
eZhWd][iX[jm[[d*&WdZ-&$
<eh j^[ fkhfei[i e\ j^_i fhe`[Yj" ZWjW \hec f[hcWd[dj [nf[h_c[djWb fbeji
^Wl[X[[dki[Z<_]$'-$)WdZJWXb['-$'$Jm[bl[e\j^[cm[h[[ijWXb_i^[Z_dj^[
'/,&iXoj^[<eh[ijH[i[WhY^?dij_jkj[e\7j^[diebZ[hfbejiWdZ')Xoj^[<eh#
[ij H[i[WhY^ ?dij_jkj[ e\ J^[iiWbed_a_ _d '/., h[Y[djbo [ijWXb_i^[Z fbeji$ 7bb
fbejim[h[fhel_Z[Zm_j^Xk\\[hped[i$J^[cW_deX`[Yj_l[e\Xej^fhe`[YjimWi
j^[ijkZoe\j^[_cfWYje\Z_\\[h[dji_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[djiedj^[ijhkYjkh[WdZ
j^[ lebkc[ o_[bZ e\ Gk$ \hW_d[je$7i YWd X[ i[[d" j^[ fbeji _d BWh_iiW" F[befed#
d[i[ WdZ C[iebe]]_ m[h[ )+ je ,+o[Whi ebZ Wj j^[ j_c[ e\ [ijWXb_i^c[dj" m^_b[
j^[ fbeji _d J^[iiWbed_a_ m[h[ Yecfb[c[djWho je j^[ ebZ[h fbeji" W_c_d] je \_bb
j^[ ]Wfi e\ W][ YbWii[i$ J^[ i_bl_YkbjkhWb jh[Wjc[dji Wffb_[Z _d j^[ ebZ[h fbeji
Yehh[ifedZjej^h[[_dj[di_j_[ie\bemj^_dd_d]i"m^_b[_dj^[fbeji_dJ^[iiWbe#
d_a_Yhemdj^_dd_d]ie\lWh_eki_dj[di_j_[i^Wl[X[[dWffb_[Z$J^[bWjj[hWh[Z[#
i_]d[ZjeWYjWbieWiZ[cedijhWj_edfbeji\ehj^[Yedi[gk[djYedl[hi_ede\Yef#
f_Y[ijWdZi_dje^_]^\eh[iji$
J^[ WlW_bWXb[ ZWjW \hec [nf[h_c[djWb fbeji ZX^" jh[[ ^[_]^j" ^[_]^j e\ b_l[
YhemdWdZNÄOYeehZ_dWj[im[h[l[hoik_jWXb[\ehj^[Wffb_YWj_ede\WZ_ijWdY[#
Z[f[dZ[dj ceZ[b b_a[ CEI;I >Wi[dWk[h '//*W$7dej^[h fej[dj_Wb ceZ[b Wf#
&IGÈÈ4YPICALÈCLIMATICÈDIA
GRAMÈFORÈTHEÈVEGETATIONÈZONEÈOFÈ
1UERCETALIAÈPUBESCENTISÈ#LIMATICÈ
STATIONÈ,AHANASÈ3ERRESÈ!LTITUDEÈ
ÈMÈPRECIPITATIONÈÈMMÈ
MEANÈANNUALÈTEMPERATUREÈ
Ȳ#Èn È)n8))È*ANU
ARYn$ECEMBERÈSOLIDÈLINEÈPRECIP
ITATIONÈMM ÈDASHEDÈSYMBOLÈLINEÈ
TEMPERATUREȲ#
)-. #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
&IGÈÈ-APÈOFÈ'REECEÈANDÈLOCATIONÈOFÈPERMANENTÈEXPERIMENTALÈPLOTSÈOFÈ1UÈFRAINETTO
fheWY^ mekbZ X[ j^Wj e\ I?BL7 Fh[jpiY^ '//(" Xkj j^_i ceZ[b d[[Zi [dl_hed#
c[djWb"i_j[WdZif[Y_[i#Z[f[dZ[djfWhWc[j[hiDEn"9E("fh[Y_f_jWj_ed"j[cf[h#
Wjkh[i"dkjh_[djikffbo"[Yeh[]_edWbYbWii_\_YWj_edfWhWc[j[hi"[jY$_dehZ[hjeZ[#
h_l[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j]hemj^$>em[l[h"ikY^ZWjWWh[dejWlW_bWXb[
_d=h[[Y[WdZj^[WffheWY^e\CEI;I>Wi[dWk[h'//*WmWij^[h[\eh[Yedi_Z#
[h[Zj^[ceijWffhefh_Wj[ed[$
È
4HEÈ$IAMETERÈ)NCREMENTÈ-ODEL
J^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djel[hj_c[_iXWi[Zedj^[Wiikcfj_ed
j^Wjj^[eXi[hl[ZZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djZ[f[dZiedj^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[#
c[djWi_jh[ikbji\hecef[d]hemdjh[[i>Wi[dWk[h'//-$J^_ifej[dj_Wb_ih[#
ZkY[ZXoW\kdYj_ede\j^[YhemdhWj_e9Hh[fh[i[dj_d]j^[fWij]hem_d]Yed#
Z_j_edi"j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n9?WYYehZ_d]jeCedi[hkZ'/-+WdZj^[Y^Wd][
_dj^[Yecf[j_j_ed9?Wij^_ih[ikbji\hecijWdZjh[Wjc[djiehdWjkhWbcehjWb_jo$
J^[j_c[iYWb[e\fh[Z_Yj_ed_i+o[Whi$8[YWki[j^[Y^Wd][e\[WY^jh[[Éiif[Y_\#
_YYecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_edm_j^_dWijWdZ_i\ehckbWj[Z"j^[ceZ[b_iWdWffhefh_Wj[
jeeb\ehWii[ii_d]]hemj^h[ifedi[jeZ_\\[h[djijWdZZ[di_j_[i$?dehZ[hje[b_c_#
dWj[jh_l_WbYehh[bWj_ediX[jm[[dj^[eXi[hl[ZWdZj^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[#
c[djm_j^_dWdeXi[hlWj_edf[h_eZ"j^[hWj_eX[jm[[deXi[hl[ZWdZfej[dj_Wb_d#
Yh[c[dji^WiX[[dki[Z>Wi[dWk[h'//*X0
_ZeXi
ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ39HW'Õ 'Ä[
_Zfej
È -ATERIALSÈANDÈ-ETHODS )-/
4ABLEÈÈ3UMMARYÈOFÈOAKÈPERMANENTÈEXPERIMENTALÈPLOTSÈDBHÈ"REASTÈHEIGHTÈDIAMETERÈCM È
(ÈTREEÈHEIGHTÈM È(LCÈHEIGHTÈTOÈTHEÈBASEÈOFÈLIVEÈCROWNÈM È8ÈANDÈ9ÈCOORDINATESÈINDIVIDUALÈTREEÈ
COORDINATESÈM
È ,OCATION
È 4HESSALONIKIÈ -ESOLOGGIÈ ,ARISSAÈ 0ELOPONNESE
.UMBERÈOFÈPLOTSÈ È È È
.OÈOFÈREMEASUREMENTSÈ È È È
m^[h[0
_ZeXi _ij^[eXi[hl[ZZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj_dY[dj_c[j[hi1
_Zfej _ij^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj_dY[dj_c[j[hi1
9H _ij^[YhemdhWj_e1
9? _ij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[1
»9? _ij^[Z_\\[h[dY[_dYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nX[\eh[WdZW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[$
J^[fej[dj_WbXh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj_iZ[j[hc_d[Z\hec[cf_h_#
YWbWbbec[jhoe\ef[d]hemdjh[[i$J^[YWbYkbWj_ede\j^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[#
c[djmehaib_a[j^_i0edY[j^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j^WiX[[dZ[j[hc_d[Z\hecj^[i_j[
_dZ[n[gkWj_ed\ehW]_l[dW][Wjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\j^[]hem_d]f[h_eZ+o[Whi"
j^[Z_Wc[j[he\Wdef[d]hemdjh[[YWdX[YWbYkbWj[Z\hecj^[^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h
ceZ[be\ef[d]hemdjh[[i$D[nj"Wd[mfej[dj_Wb^[_]^j_iZ[h_l[Z\hecj^[i_j[
).& #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
_dZ[n[gkWj_ed\ehj^[d[nj]hem_d]f[h_eZ$J^_i^[_]^jYehh[ifedZijeWd[mZ_#
Wc[j[hWij^_ih[ikbji\hecj^[iWc[^[_]^jÄZ_Wc[j[hceZ[b\ehef[d]hemdjh[[i$
J^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj_ij^[dj^[Z_\\[h[dY[e\j^[i[Z_Wc[j[hi$
Cedi[hkZ '/-+ Z[\_d[Z 9HW' Wi j^[ Wbbec[jh_Y ckbj_fb_[h" WdZ j^[ [nfh[i#
i_ed
'Ä[
Wij^[el[hijeYa_d]ckbj_fb_[h$
È
4HEÈ(EIGHTÈ)NCREMENTÈ-ODEL
J^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\^[_]^j_dYh[c[djel[hj_c[_iXWi[Zedj^[iWc[Wiikcf#
j_edWij^[Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djceZ[b$J^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj_ih[ZkY[Z
jej^[Ykhh[dj^[_]^j_dYh[c[djXoj^[iWc[\WYjehi"j^[YhemdhWj_eWdZYecf[#
j_j_ed_dZ[n>Wi[dWk[h'//*X0
_^eXi
ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ39HW'Õ 'Ä[
_^fej
m^[h[_^eXiWdZ_^fejWh[j^[eXi[hl[Z^[_]^jWdZfej[dj_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[dji
h[if[Yj_l[bo_dc[j[hi$
J^[fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj_^fejYWddejX[Z[j[hc_d[Z\hecef[d]hemd
jh[[iWi_iZed[\ehj^[fej[dj_WbZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djX[YWki[ef[d]hemdjh[[i
j[dZjeZ[l[befb[ii_d^[_]^jj^Wdj^ei[j^Wj]hemm_j^_dj^[ijWdZi$J^[fej[d#
j_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[djYWdX[Z[j[hc_d[Z\hecj^[Zec_dWdj^[_]^jie\i_j[_dZ[n
\kdYj_edi$
I_j[_dZ[n[gkWj_edi][d[hWbboh[fh[i[djj^[Wl[hW][^[_]^j_dYh[c[dje\j^[
Zec_dWdjjh[[ie\Wh[]_ed$7jh[[^[_]^jYWdX[YWbYkbWj[Zm_j^i_j[_dZ[n[gkW#
j_edi\ehW]_l[di_j[_dZ[nWdZW][$9edl[hi[bo"]_l[dWi_j[WdZ^[_]^j"_j_ifei#
i_Xb[jeYWbYkbWj[WdWffhen_cWj[W][\ehWjh[["ceh[Wffhefh_Wj[boYWbb[ZWd[\#
\[Yj_l[i_j[W][:edd[bboWdZ@e^died'//-$Fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j]hemj^YWdj^[dX[
YWbYkbWj[ZXo_dYh[c[dj_d]j^[[\\[Yj_l[i_j[W][Xoj^[]hem_d]f[h_eZWdZiebl#
_d]j^[i_j[_dZ[n[gkWj_ed\ehWd[m^[_]^j$Fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj_ij^[Z_\#
\[h[dY[_d^[_]^jiX[jm[[dj^[jmefe_dji_dj_c[$<ehWif[Y_\_Yi_j["j^_i_dYh[#
c[djmekbZX[j^[X[ij[nf[Yj[Z_\j^[jh[[\ebbemi[nWYjboj^[i_j[eh^[_]^j_d#
Yh[c[djYkhl[$<_]kh['-$*]_l[iW]hWf^_YWbh[fh[i[djWj_ede\j^[YWbYkbWj_ede\
fej[dj_Wb^[_]^j_dYh[c[dj$
È -ATERIALSÈANDÈ-ETHODS ).'
&IGÈÈ'RAPHICÈREPRE
SENTATIONÈOFÈTHEÈCALCULA
TIONÈOFÈPOTENTIALÈHEIGHTÈIN
CREMENT
È
4HEÈ#OMPETITIONÈ)NDEX
?dZ_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[]hemj^ceZ[bi"j^[_dj[hZ[f[dZ[dY[e\
_dZ_l_ZkWbij[ci_i\h[gk[djboWii[ii[ZXoWYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n"m^_Y^_iW\kdY#
j_edZ[j[hc_d_d]WfWhj_YkbWhjh[[Éii_p[WdZbeYWj_ed_dh[bWj_edjej^[i_p[WdZbe#
YWj_ede\_jiYecf[j_jehi$7YjkWb]hemj^_ij^[dW\kdYj_ede\fej[dj_Wb]hemj^WdZ
_jic[Wikh[e\Yecf[j_j_ed$7jj^[^[Whje\Wd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ceZ[b_i_jiYecf[#
j_j_ed_dZ[nWdZj^[cWdd[h_dm^_Y^j^[]hemj^_iW\\[Yj[ZXoj^_i;aWdZCed#
i[hkZ'/-*$
9ecf[j_j_edX[jm[[d_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iW\\[YjiWlWh_[joe\jh[[WdZijWdZY^Wh#
WYj[h_ij_Yi_dYbkZ_d]]hemj^WdZh[fheZkYj_edCedi[hkZ'/-+"jh[[\ehcZ[l[b#
efc[dj7hd[o'/-(WdZcehjWb_joA[_ij[hWdZJ_Zm[bb'/-+$?dZ_Y[ie\Yecf[#
j_j_edWh[if[Y_[i#WdZi_j[#if[Y_\_Y8khjed'//)"Xkjj^[Æjhk[ÇYecf[j_j_ed_d#
Z[ne\W]_l[djh[[_id[l[heXi[hlWXb[Cedi[hkZWdZ;a'/--$Fhel_Z[ZWbb\WY#
jehih[cW_dYedijWdj"j^[iWc[lWbk[\ehWd_dZ[ne\Yecf[j_j_edcWo^Wl[Z_\#
\[h[djc[Wd_d]ikdZ[hZ_\\[h[dji_j[YedZ_j_edi$?d[\\[Yj"Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ_Y[iZ[#
iYh_X[fbWdjYecf[j_j_ed\ehiYWhY[h[iekhY[iikY^WimWj[h"dkjh_[djiWdZb_]^j$
J^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[ne\[l[hojh[[_iYWbYkbWj[ZWj[WY^]hem_d]f[h_eZ"X[#
\eh[WdZW\j[hj^_dd_d]ehWjcehjWb_joWi\ebbemi0jh[[iWh[\_hij]_l[def[d#]hemd
YhemdiYhemdij^Wjjh[[imekbZ^Wl[_\j^[om[h[]hemdm_j^ekjWdoYecf[j_#
j_ed$D[nj"j^[Wh[We\el[hbWfe\j^[Yhemde\j^[ikX`[Yjjh[[j^Wj\Wbbi_di_Z[
j^[Yhemde\j^[Yecf[j_jeh_iYWbYkbWj[Z8[bbW'/-'$<_dWbbo"j^[el[hbWfWh[W_i
m[_]^j[ZXoj^[hWj_ee\j^[i_p[^[_]^jWdZYhemdm_Zj^e\j^[Yecf[j_jehjej^[
ikX`[Yjjh[[;aWdZCedi[hkZ'/-*$;gkWj_ed'-$)fh[i[djij^[cWj^[cWj_YWb
\ehckbWe\j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[ne\j^[_j^jh[[_dWijWdZ"Wi\ebbemi0
3
9?_3 ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÕÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
(
`3'PÕH_ H_Õ>_
dE_`H`Õ>`
m^[h[0
9?__ij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n\ehikX`[Yjjh[[_1
E_` _i j^[ _d\bk[dY[#ped[ el[hbWf X[jm[[d ikX`[Yj jh[[ _ WdZ j^[ Yecf[j_jeh `
c(1
).( #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
H` _ifej[dj_WbhWZ_kijWa[d\hecef[d]hemdjh[[Z_c[di_edie\Yecf[j_jeh`_d
c[j[hi1
H_ _ifej[dj_WbhWZ_kijWa[d\hecef[d]hemdjh[[Z_c[di_edie\ikX`[Yjjh[[?_d
c[j[hi1
>` _i^[_]^je\Yecf[j_jeh`_dc[j[hi1
>_ _i^[_]^je\ikX`[Yjjh[[__dc[j[hi$
È
4HEÈ#ROWNÈ-ODEL
Je ZWj[" ceij Yhemd ceZ[bi fh[Z_Yj [WY^ jh[[Éi d[m Yhemd i_p[ W\j[h [WY^
]hem_d]f[h_eZ"XWi[ZedijWdZWdZi_j[Y^WhWYj[h_ij_YiWdZkfZWj[Zjh[[lWh_W#
Xb[iikY^WiZ_Wc[j[h"^[_]^jWdZYecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n$?j_iWYY[fj[Zj^Wj_dYh[c[dj#
_d]Yhemd^[_]^jj^hek]^j_c["_dckY^j^[iWc[mWoWiZ_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^jWh[
_dYh[c[dj[Z"mekbZikXi[gk[djbo_cfhel[j^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\jh[[]hemj^WdZceh#
jWb_joI^ehjWdZ8kha^Whj'//($
<ehj^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\j^[\kjkh[Yhemdb[d]j^"j^[ZodWc_YYhemd^[_]^j_d#
Yh[c[djceZ[b>Wi[dWk[h'//*YmWiYecfWh[Z0
$>B93W&Õ>W'Õ[
m^[h[0
> jejWbjh[[^[_]^j_dc[j[hi
9H YhemdhWj_e1
9? j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[1
ZX^ Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h_dY[dj_c[j[hi1
W&ÄW* h[]h[ii_edYe[\\_Y_[dji$
J^[ZodWc_YceZ[b[ij_cWj[ij^[f[h_eZ_Y_dYh[Wi[e\j^[^[_]^jjej^[XWi[
e\j^[b_l[Yhemd>B9_dh[bWj_edjej^[jejWbjh[[^[_]^jWdZYhemdhWj_e_deh#
Z[hjeZ[j[hc_d[j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[WdZj^[Z_Wc[j[hWj
Xh[Wij^[_]^jWjj^[X[]_dd_d]e\[WY^]hem_d]f[h_eZ$
È
4HEÈ-ORTALITYÈ-ODEL
FbWdjZ[Wj^_iWYecfb[nfheY[ii"_d\bk[dY[ZXof^oi_ebe]o"[dl_hedc[dj"ikY#
Y[ii_edWbZ[l[befc[dj"W][WdZY^WdY[>WhYecX['/.,1<hWdab_d[jWb$'/.-$?d
][d[hWb"jh[[iZ_[m^[dj^[oYWddejWYgk_h[ehceX_b_p[ik\\_Y_[djh[iekhY[ijeh[#
Yel[h\hecijh[ii"^[Wb_d`kh_[iehikijW_db_\["ehm^[dj^[oWh[a_bb[ZXoiec[[n#
j[hdWb\WYjeh$>em[l[h"j^[_dj[hWYj_l[WdZi[gk[dj_WbdWjkh[e\j^[Yecfb[nceh#
jWb_joc[Y^Wd_icicWa[i_jl_hjkWbbo_cfeii_Xb[jefheZkY[WZ[\_d_j_l[YbWii_\_#
YWj_ede\m^WjYWki[Zj^[kbj_cWj[Z[Wj^e\Wjh[[<hWdab_d[jWb$'/.-$M^_b[W
jh[[Éi Z[Wj^ c_]^j kbj_cWj[bo ^Wl[ h[ikbj[Z \hec W d[]Wj_l[ YWhXed XWbWdY[ _$[$
m^[h[h[if_hWj_ed[nY[[Zif^ejeiodj^[i_i"j^[Z[\_Y_jc_]^j^Wl[X[[dYWki[ZXo
È -ATERIALSÈANDÈ-ETHODS ).)
Wd_di[Yj_d\[ijWj_edXhek]^jWXekjXofeehl_]ekhZkh_d]WZhek]^jf[h_eZ$8ej#
a_d[jWb$'/-(_Z[dj_\_[ZjmecehjWb_jofheY[ii[i$
'$ J^[_d^[h[djh_iae\Z[Wj^"m^_Y^m[h[\[hjeWi_djh_di_YcehjWb_jo"_ij^[ceh#
jWb_jo[nf[Yj[ZjeeYYkhkdZ[h\WlekhWXb[YedZ_j_edim_j^ehm_j^ekjYecf[#
j_j_ed\hecej^[hjh[[i$
($ 9ecf[j_j_ed#_dZkY[ZcehjWb_joeh]hemj^#Z[f[dZ[djcehjWb_jo_iZk[jefeeh
]hemj^j^Wj_ie\j[dZk[jeYecf[j_j_ed\ehh[iekhY[i_$[$ikffh[ii_edWdZ_i
\h[gk[djbo ceZ[bb[Z Wi W ijeY^Wij_Y \kdYj_ed e\ Z_Wc[j[h ]hemj^ _dYh[c[dj
>Wma[i(&&&$J^_iWiikc[ij^Wjj^[ibem[ij]hem_d]jh[[iWh[ceijb_a[boje
Z_[X[YWki[j^[oWh[m[Wa[hWdZb[iiWXb[jeZ[\[dZW]W_dij_di[YjehZ_i[Wi[Wj#
jWYai"ehWh[b[iifhed[jeikhl_l[idemfh[iikh[WdZej^[hWX_ej_YZ_ijkhXWdY#
[i$Ej^[hYWki[ie\cehjWb_jo"_dYbkZ_d]_di[Yjf[iji"fWj^e][di"Zhek]^jWdZ
dkjh_[dj b_c_jWj_edi" cWo Wbie X[ ceh[ b_a[bo je W\\[Yj ibem[h ]hem_d] jh[[i$
J^[cehjWb_joe\Wjh[[h[ikbj_d]\hecYecf[j_j_edZkh_d]j^[]hemj^fheY#
[ii _i W Z_Y^ejeceki YbWii_\_YWj_ed fheXb[c$ <eh _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ ceZ[bi" j^[
Z[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[^Wijmefeii_Xb[efj_edi"b_l[ehZ[WZ&"'$9edi[gk[djbo
j^[fh[Z_Yj[ZfheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo\ehj^[d[nj]hem_d]f[h_eZ_iX[jm[[d
&WdZ'$?dehZ[hje[dikh[j^Wjj^[fh[Z_Yj[ZfheXWX_b_j_[ihWd][X[jm[[dj^[
jmefeii_Xb[lWbk[i"Wbe]_ij_YceZ[b^WiX[[dki[ZXWi[Zedj^[WlW_bWXb[ZW#
jW$J^[ceZ[bm_bbfh[Z_Yjj^[fheXWX_b_joe\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[cehjWb_joFm_j^#
_dW+#o[Whf[h_eZWiW\kdYj_ede\YhemdhWj_e9H"Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nW\j[h
Yhemdh[b[Wi[9?"WdZXh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[hZX^0
'
F3ÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄÄ
'![
J^[be]_ij_Y\kdYj_edehib_]^jceZ_\_YWj_edi^Wl[fhel[djeX[ki[\kbm^[d
Z[l[bef_d]ceZ[bie\fheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo>Wc_bjedWdZ;ZmWhZi'/-,1Ced#
i[hkZ'/-,18kY^cWd[jWb$'/.)$If[Y_\_YWZlWdjW][ie\j^[be]_ij_YceZ[bWh[Wi
\ebbemi0
v J^[\kdYj_ed_iXekdZXo&WdZ'$
v M_j^j^[i[b[Yj_ede\j^[fhef[hi[je\lWh_WXb[iWdZjhWdi\ehcWj_edi"j^[be#
]_ij_Y\kdYj_edYWdX[ki[ZjeZ[iYh_X[j^[ceijdWjkhWbboeYYkhh_d]fWjj[hdi
e\cehjWb_jo$
v Ded#b_d[Wh [ij_cWj_ed hekj_d[i _d j^_i YWi[ cWn_ckc b_a[b_^eeZ YWd [\\_#
Y_[djbo[ij_cWj[j^[fWhWc[j[hie\j^[be]_ij_Y\kdYj_ed$
v Adem_d]Wd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ib_a[b_^eeZe\Zo_d]m_j^_dj^[d[njo[Wh_i[ii[d#
j_WbjeW\eh[ij]hemj^i_ckbWjeh$
7jh[[ifheXWX_b_joe\Zo_d]Z[f[dZikfed_jiWX_b_jojeYef[m_j^_ji[dl_hed#
c[dj$J^[jh[[_ji[b\"_jid[_]^Xekh_d]jh[[iWdZdkc[hekiWZZ_j_edWb_d\bk[dY[i
_dYbkZ_d]b_]^j"ce_ijkh["dkjh_[dji"_di[YjiWdZ\kd]_Wh[YecX_d[Zje\ehcj^[
kd_gk[d_Y^[\ehj^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[$:_Wc[j[h]hemj^hWj[_ij^[a[ojh[[Y^WhWY#
j[h_ij_Y_dj^[if[Y_[i#if[Y_\_YcehjWb_jo\kdYj_ed$
J^[ h[ikbj_d] lWbk[ e\ F \eh W jh[[ _i j^[d YecfWh[Z m_j^ W j^h[i^ebZ lWbk[
J eXjW_d[Z \hec W kd_\ehc hWdZec dkcX[hi ][d[hWjeh m_j^ W c[Wd e\ & WdZ
).* #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
WijWdZWhZZ[l_Wj_ede\'$?\j^[FlWbk[_ib[iij^WdJ"j^[jh[[_iWiikc[ZjeX[
Z[WZ$
È
2ESULTS
È
4HEÈ$IAMETERÈ)NCREMENTÈ-ODEL
<hecWbbj^[WlW_bWXb[ZWjWWbceij(."+&&_dYh[c[djf[h_eZiedbo''"++(_d#
Yh[c[dj f[h_eZi m[h[ ki[Z \eh j^[ fWhWc[j[h_iWj_ed e\ j^[ Z_Wc[j[h _dYh[c[dj
ceZ[bX[YWki[e\j^[c_ii_d]jh[[^[_]^ji$7bblWh_WXb[iki[Z_dj^[ceZ[bm[h[
ijWj_ij_YWbboi_]d_\_YWdjWjb[l[bf3&$&+$J^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nWff[Whije^Wl[j^[
]h[Wj[ij_d\bk[dY[edZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djYecfWh[Zm_j^j^[ej^[hjmelWh_WXb[i"
_$[$YhemdhWj_eWdZYhemdh[b[Wi[$J^[_d\bk[dY[e\j^[YhemdhWj_e_iicWbb[h_d
4ABLEÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈNON
LINEARÈREGRESSIONÈFORÈTHEÈDIAMETERÈINCREMENTÈMODELÈFORÈ1UÈFRAI
NETTOÈ4HEÈESTIMATEDÈCOEFFICIENTSÈAREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈÈPROBABILITYÈLEVEL
&IGÈÈ0ERCENTAGEÈOFÈTHEÈTIMEÈLAGÈINÈTHEÈDIAMETERÈINCREMENTÈID ÈRATIOÈCAUSEDÈBYÈCROWNÈRE
LEASEÈ$CI ÈATÈFIVEÈDIFFERENTÈCOMPETITIONÈINDICESÈ#) ÈBEFOREÈCROWNÈRELEASEÈ2ATESÈINÈDIAMETERÈIN
CREMENTÈDELAYÈREPRESENTÈTHEÈINFLUENCEÈOFÈCROWNÈRELEASEÈINÈCOMPARISONÈTOÈAÈTREEÈTHATÈALWAYSÈHADÈ
THESEÈGROWINGÈCONDITIONS
È 2ESULTS ).+
j^_iYWi[j^Wd_dj^Wje\Gk$f[jhW[Wm^_Y^mWi&$,+8^[_c(&&'$J^[Zh_l_d]
lWh_WXb[_dj^[Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djceZ[b_ij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nJWXb['-$($
J^[ fWhWc[j[h W( e\ j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n _i d[]Wj_l[ Ä($*)" _dZ_YWj_d] W
hWj^[hij[[fZ[Yh[Wi[e\j^[el[hijeYa_d]ckbj_fb_[hWij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n_d#
Yh[Wi[i$ J^[ fWhWc[j[h \eh j^[ Yhemd h[b[Wi[ W) _i fei_j_l[ WdZ h[bWj_l[bo ^_]^
&$'/YecfWh[Zm_j^j^Wje\ej^[heWaif[Y_[i$J^[fei_j_l[i_]de\j^[fWhWc[#
j[h_dZ_YWj[ij^Wj_dij[WZe\^Wl_d]WdWYY[b[hWj_ede\]hemj^Wij^[Yhemdh[b[Wi[
_dYh[Wi[i"j^[h[_iWZ[Yh[Wi[_d]hemj^$J^_i_dZ_YWj[ij^WjGk$\hW_d[jjeZe[idej
jWa[WZlWdjW][e\j^[]h[Wj[hifWY[j^WjX[Yec[iWlW_bWXb[W\j[hWj^_dd_d]jeWY#
Y[b[hWj[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^WdZYel[hWickY^e\j^[d[mboYh[Wj[ZifWY[Wi_jYekbZ"
Wjb[Wij\ehj^[\_hij(o[WhiW\j[hj^[_dj[hl[dj_ed$J^_i_i_bbkijhWj[Z_d<_]$'-$+$?j
_iYb[Whj^WjWij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n_dYh[Wi[iWdZj^[f[hY[djW][e\Yhemdh[#
b[Wi[ WffheWY^[i ,&" j^[ j_c[ bW] _d j^[ Z_Wc[j[h _dYh[c[dj hWj_e h[WY^[i _ji
c_d_ckc$
8Wi[Zed<_]$'-$,"_j_il[ho_dj[h[ij_d]jeeXi[hl[j^WjZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djWf#
f[WhijeX[l[hoi[di_j_l[jeWd_dYh[Wi_d]Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n"m^_Y^Yed\_hcij^Wj
j^_iif[Y_[i_ib_]^jZ[cWdZ_d]WdZYWddejjeb[hWj[i^WZ_d]$J^[iWc[h[ikbjim[h[
fh[i[dj[ZXoCedi[hkZ'/-+_dj^[YWi[e\j^[7c[h_YWdh[ZeWai$
&IGÈÈ!LLOMETRICÈ
MULTIPLIERÈUPPERÈGRAPH È
WHICHÈREPRESENTSÈTHEÈ
PASTÈGROWINGÈCONDI
TIONSÈOFÈOAKÈANDÈOVER
STOCKINGÈMULTIPLIERÈLOWERÈ
GRAPH ÈDEPENDINGÈONÈTHEÈ
COMPETITIONÈINDEXÈAFTERÈ
CROWNÈRELEASEÈWHICHÈÈ
REPRESENTSÈTHEÈCURRENTÈ
COMPETITIONÈSTATUSÈFORÈ
THEÈDIAMETERÈINCREMENTÈ
MODEL
)., #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
8Wi[Zed<_]$'-$+"_jYWdX[iW_Zj^WjGk$\hW_d[jjeZe[idejX[d[\_j\hecj^[
Yhemdh[b[Wi[W\j[hj^_dd_d]_dehZ[hjeeYYkfoWlW_bWXb[]hem_d]ifWY[XoWYY[b#
[hWj_d]_ji]hemj^$?dij[WZ"j^[h[_iWh[Y[ii_ede\j^[Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djhWj_e\eh
Wjh[[j^Wj^WiX[[dh[b[Wi[Z\hecYecf[j_j_edYecfWh[ZjeWjh[[j^Wj^WZj^[
iWc[]hem_d]YedZ_j_edi_dj^[fWij$7feii_Xb[_dj[hfh[jWj_ede\j^_ih[ikbjYekbZ
X[WYecX_dWj_ede\j^[^_]^b_]^jZ[cWdZie\j^_iif[Y_[iWdZj^[i_j[\[hj_b_jo$
9Wdefo Ybeikh[ _i bem[h _d Xej^ b_]^j#Z[cWdZ_d] if[Y_[i WdZ cWh]_dWb i_j[i Wi
m[bb$Gk$\hW_d[jjed[[Zij_c[jeWZWfj_ji[b\jej^[_cfhel[ZYedZ_j_edi$
È
4HEÈ(EIGHTÈ)NCREMENTÈ-ODEL
7bbWlW_bWXb[ZWjW''"++(_dYh[c[djf[h_eZim[h[ki[Z\ehj^[fWhWc[j[h_iW#
j_ede\j^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[b;g$'-$($7bblWh_WXb[iki[Z_dj^[ceZ[bm[h[
ijWj_ij_YWbboi_]d_\_YWdjWjb[l[bf3&$&+$J^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nWff[Whije^Wl[W
ckY^icWbb[h_d\bk[dY[ed^[_]^j_dYh[c[djj^Wdj^[ej^[hjmelWh_WXb[iYhemd
hWj_eWdZYhemdh[b[Wi[$J^[_d\bk[dY[e\YhemdhWj_e_iWbieicWbb[hj^Wd_dj^[
Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djceZ[b$
&IGÈÈ!LLOMETRICÈ
MULTIPLIERÈUPPERÈGRAPH È
ANDÈOVERSTOCKINGÈMULTI
PLIERÈLOWERÈGRAPH ÈFORÈTHEÈ
HEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈMODEL
È 2ESULTS ).-
J^[^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[b_idejWii[di_j_l[jej^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nWdZ
Yhemdh[b[Wi[Wij^[Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djceZ[bJWXb['-$)$>em[l[h"j^[fWjj[hd
_ij^[iWc[Wi_dj^[Z_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[djceZ[b$
J^[ ceij WffWh[dj Z_\\[h[dY[ X[jm[[d j^[ ^[_]^j ]hemj^ ckbj_fb_[h i^emd
_d<_]$'-$-WdZZ_Wc[j[h]hemj^ckbj_fb_[hi^emd_d<_]$'-$,_ij^[]h[Wj[hhWj[
e\Z[Yh[Wi[_dj^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^Ykhl[m_j^h[if[Yjje_dYh[Wi_d]Yecf[j_j_ed$
J^_i Z[Yh[Wi[ _i fh_cWh_bo Yedjhebb[Z Xo j^[ fWhWc[j[h W( _d j^[ el[hijeYa_d]
ckbj_fb_[h;gi$'-$'WdZ'-$($<hecJWXb[i'-$'WdZ'-$(_jYWdX[i[[dj^WjfW#
hWc[j[hW(_ibWh][h_dj^[Z_Wc[j[h]hemj^ceZ[b$7dej^[hbWh][Z_\\[h[dY[j^Wj
<_]i$'-$,WdZ'-$-h[l[Wb_ij^[bWh][h_d\bk[dY[j^WjYhemdhWj_e^WiedZ_Wc[j[h
]hemj^$J^[i[[\\[YjiWh[[nf[Yj[ZX[YWki[\[m[hf^ejeiodj^[j_YcWj[h_Wbih[WY^
YWcX_Wb j_iik[ Wi h[iekhY[i X[Yec[ iYWhY[ Zk[ je _dYh[Wi_d] Yecf[j_j_ed Ae#
pbemia_'/-'1Cedi[hkZ'/-+$
?d<_]$'-$."\ehj^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nfh[i[jlWbk[i'WdZ("j^[[\\[Yje\Yhemd
h[b[Wi[edj^[f[hY[djW][e\^[_]^j_dYh[c[djZ[bWo_ip[he"WdZ\ehYecf[j_j_ed
_dZ[nlWbk[)"_j_ib[iij^WdÄ&$'$O[jW]W_d"j^[fWjj[hde\Z[Y[b[hWj_ede\^[_]^j
]hemj^Wij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n_dYh[Wi[i_iYed\_hc[Z$>em[l[h"j^_i^Wff[di
edboje^[Wl_boikffh[ii[Zjh[[iWdZjeWckY^icWbb[hZ[]h[[$
4ABLEÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈNON
LINEARÈREGRESSIONÈFORÈTHEÈHEIGHTÈINCREMENTÈMODELÈFORÈ1UÈFRAINET
TOÈ4HEÈESTIMATEDÈCOEFFICIENTSÈAREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈÈPROBABILITYÈLEVEL
&IGÈÈ0ERCENTAGEÈOFÈ
THEÈTIMEÈLAGÈINÈTHEÈHEIGHTÈ
INCREMENTÈIH ÈRATIOÈCAUSEDÈ
BYÈCROWNÈRELEASEÈ$CI ÈATÈ
FIVEÈDIFFERENTÈCOMPETITIONÈ
INDICESÈ#) ÈBEFOREÈCROWNÈ
RELEASEÈ2ATESÈINÈHEIGHTÈÈ
INCREMENTÈDELAYÈREPRESENTÈ
THEÈINFLUENCEÈOFÈCROWNÈÈ
RELEASEÈINÈCOMPARISONÈTOÈAÈ
TREEÈTHATÈALWAYSÈHADÈTHESEÈ
GROWINGÈCONDITIONS
).. #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
È
4HEÈ#ROWNÈ-ODEL
<eh[ij_cWj_ede\j^[Y^Wd][_dj^[^[_]^jjej^[XWi[e\b_l[Yhemdel[hj^[
d[nj+#o[Whf[h_eZ"j^[ceZ[be\>Wi[dWk[h'//*Y"Z[l[bef[Z\ehkd[l[d#W][Z
ifhkY[ijWdZi"mWiki[Z;g$'-$*$<hecWYedY[fjkWbfe_dje\l_[m"^[_]^jjej^[
XWi[e\b_l[YhemdYWddejZ[Yh[Wi[Zk[jeY^Wd][i_dj^[_dZ[f[dZ[djlWh_WXb[i$
J^_iWhj_\_Y_Wb[\\[Yj_iiec[j_c[i[l_Z[dj_dj^[ijWj_YYhemdceZ[bWffheWY^$J^[
WZlWdjW][ie\ikY^WdWffheWY^Wh[j^Wjd[]Wj_l[lWbk[iWh[Wle_Z[ZWdZj^[j^_d#
d_d]_dj[di_joeXi[hl[Z_d[nf[h_c[djWbfbejiYWdX[ki[ZWiWfh[Z_YjehlWh_WXb[
je_d\bk[dY[j^[fhe`[Yj[Zh[ikbjiZ_h[Yjbo$>em[l[h"WiZ_iYkii[Z_dI[Yj_ed'-$("
j^[Zemdi_Z[e\ikY^WdWffheWY^Wh[j^[h[f[Wj[Zc[Wikh[c[djie\^[_]^jjej^[
XWi[e\b_l[YhemdWdZj^[ZWjWgkWb_joX[YWki[e\j^[^_]^c[Wikh[c[dj[hheh$
?d;g$'-$*j^[[ij_cWj[ZYe[\\_Y_[djW)ckijX[d[]Wj_l[JWXb['-$*"iej^Wj
j^[_d\bk[dY[e\j^[Yecf[j_j_ed\hecd[_]^Xekh_d]jh[[i[nfh[ii[ZXoj^[Yec#
f[j_j_ed_dZ[n9?_i[nfbW_d[Z$7icWbblWbk[e\j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nm_bbh[ikbj
_dWicWbbY^Wd][_dj^[^[_]^jjej^[XWi[e\b_l[Yhemd^bY$7Yb[WhWZlWdjW][
e\j^[WXel[ceZ[b_ij^Wj_j_iW][_dZ[f[dZ[dj"m^_Y^_ie\]h[Wji_]d_\_YWdY[\eh
j^[kd[l[d#W][ZijWdZi$7ZZ_j_edWbbo"j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n_i ik_jWXb[X[YWki[
j^_i_dZ[nYWdX[ki[Z_dj^[iWc[mWoWi_dj^[^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h_dYh[c[dj
ceZ[bi>Wi[dWk[h'//*X$
È
4HEÈ-ORTALITYÈ-ODEL
J^[ijWhj_d]fe_dj\ehj^[Z[l[befc[dje\Wik_jWXb[cehjWb_joceZ[bmWij^[
Z[j[hc_dWj_ede\j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[fheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_joWiW\kdYj_ede\j^[
jh[[lWh_WXb[i"m^_Y^m[h[WlW_bWXb[Wjj^[[dZe\ed[eXi[hlWj_edf[h_eZ$
4ABLEÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈNON
LINEARÈREGRESSIONÈFORÈTHEÈHEIGHTÈTOÈTHEÈBASEÈOFÈLIVEÈCROWNÈINCRE
MENTÈMODELÈFORÈ1UÈFRAINETTOÈ4HEÈESTIMATEDÈCOEFFICIENTSÈAREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈÈPROBABILITYÈLEVEL
4ABLEÈÈ2ESULTSÈOFÈTHEÈLOGISTICÈMORTALITYÈMODELÈFORÈ1UÈFRAINETTOÈ4HEÈESTIMATEDÈCOEFFICIENTSÈ
AREÈSIGNIFICANTÈATÈÈPROBABILITYÈLEVEL
?dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[h[YehZim[h[YeZ[ZWi[_j^[hb_l[fheXWX_b_jo e\Zo_d]"&eh
Z[WZfheXWX_b_joe\Zo_d]"'Wjj^[[dZe\[WY^]hem_d]f[h_eZ$<ehj^['.fbeji
ki[Z \eh YWb_XhWj_ed j^_i h[ikbj[Z _d (*"))- h[YehZi YbWii_\_[Z Wi b_l[ WdZ ("*'-
/$/)YbWii_\_[ZWiZ[WZ$
<ehj^[[ij_cWj_ede\j^[fheXWX_b_joWced]Z[WZWdZb_l[jh[[ij^[fheY[Zkh[
BE=?J e\ j^[ ijWj_ij_YWb fWYaW][ I7I I7I ?dij_jkj[ '/// mWi ki[Z$ JWXb['-$+
i^emij^[fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[ie\j^[cehjWb_joceZ[b$
J^[ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n W\j[h Yhemd h[b[Wi[ [nfh[ii[i j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed ijWjki
\ehj^[Ykhh[djeXi[hlWj_edf[h_eZ$J^ki_j_iWiikc[Zj^WjWZ[Yh[Wi[_dj^[fheX#
WX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo_iZk[jeYhemdh[b[Wi[_dj^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n$J^[Yhemd
hWj_eYWdX[_dj[hfh[j[ZWiWd[nfh[ii_ede\j^[fWijYecf[j_j_edi_jkWj_ed"m^_b[
j^[Z_Wc[j[hZ[iYh_X[ij^[W][jh[dZ$
È
4HEÈ#OMPUTERÈ0ROGRAMÈ$29-/3
:HOCEI"m^_Y^_d=h[[ac[Wdi\eh[ij"_iWZ[h_lWj_l[ie\jmWh[fhe]hWce\j^[
7kijh_Wd \eh[ij i_ckbWjeh CEI;I >Wi[dWk[h '//*X$ ?j Yedi_iji e\ W ioij[c e\
[gkWj_edi'je+"XWi[Zedh[]h[ii_edWdWboi_i"m^_Y^^Wl[X[[d_dYehfehWj[Z_dW
ki[h#\h_[dZbo_dj[h\WY[$J^[eX`[Yj_l[e\j^_ifhe]hWc_ije\kdYj_ed_dj[hWYj_l[bo
m_j^j^[ioij[ce\[gkWj_ediWdZjel_ikWb_p[j^[[lebkj_ede\j^[\eh[ij_dj_c[$
<eh j^[ _d_j_Wb_pWj_ed e\ W ijWdZ _dje :HOCEI" j^[ \ebbem_d] ijWhj_d] lWbk[i
Wh[d[[Z[Z0fbejZ_c[di_edi"i_j[_dZ[n"NWdZOYeehZ_dWj[ie\[WY^jh[["Xh[Wij
^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h"jejWbjh[[^[_]^jWdZ^[_]^jjej^[XWi[e\b_l[Yhemd$7ZZ_j_ed#
Wb_d\ehcWj_edj^WjmekbZX[ki[\kbXkjdej[ii[dj_Wb\ehijWdZ_d_j_Wb_pWj_ed_d#
YbkZ[ij^[Y^WhWYj[h_pWj_ede\fbkijh[[ieh\kjkh[jh[[i"Ykjjh[[i\hecj^_dd_d]
WdZij[cgkWb_joYbWii[i$
EdY[j^[fhe]hWc^WibeWZ[Zj^[h[gk_h[Z_d_j_Wbjh[[ZWjW"_jYWdl_ikWb_p[j^[
ijWdZ_dWjme#ehj^h[[#Z_c[di_edWb\ehcWj$Edj^[h_]^j#^WdZi_Z[e\j^[i_ck#
bWjehlWh_ekiijWdZfWhWc[j[hiWh[Z_ifbWo[Z"ikY^Wijh[[if[Y_[i_dj^_iYWi[ed#
boGk$\hW_d[jje"i_j[_dZ[n"gkWZhWj_Yc[WdZ_Wc[j[h"Zec_dWdjWdZBeh[o^[_]^j"
^[_]^j%Z_Wc[j[hhWj_e"XWiWbWh[WWdZijWdZ_d]lebkc[f[h^[YjWh[$
J^[XkjjedÈ=hemj^É_ij^[a[hd[be\j^[ioij[c$M^[d_j_ifki^[Z"_jWYj_lWj[i
Wbbj^[]hemj^\kdYj_edii_ckbjWd[ekibo$7bbYecfkjWj_edie\i_d]b[jh[[]hemj^
jWa[ fbWY[ \eh ed[ +#o[Wh f[h_eZ$ J^[ fhe]hWc ijWhji YWbYkbWj_d] j^[ Yecf[j_#
j_ed_dZ[nW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[;g$)1j^[dj^[[ij_cWj_ede\_dZ_l_ZkWbZ_Wc[j[h
WdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[djjWa[ifbWY[WdZj^[h[ikbjiWh[WZZ[Zjej^[fh[l_ekilWbk[i
;gi$'WdZ($J^[d[njij[f_ij^[Z[j[hc_dWj_ede\j^[Y^Wd][e\j^[^[_]^jjej^[
XWi[e\b_l[Yhemd;g$*$7iWbWijij[f"j^[YecfkjWj_ede\j^[fheXWX_b_joe\_d#
Z_l_ZkWbjh[[cehjWb_jojWa[ifbWY[;g$+$J^[Z[Y_i_edm^[j^[hWjh[[Wjj^[[dZ
e\j^[+#o[Wh]hemj^f[h_eZb_l[iehZ_[i_icWZ[XoWdehcWbboZ_ijh_Xkj[ZhWd#
Zec#dkcX[h][d[hWjeh$?\j^[Yecfkj[ZXoj^[ceZ[bfheXWX_b_joe\_dZ_l_ZkWb
jh[[cehjWb_jo_ibWh][hj^Wdj^[Z[j[hc_d[ZhWdZecdkcX[h"j^[jh[[Z_[i$
7jj^[[dZe\[WY^]hemj^f[h_eZ"Z_W]hWcie\j^[Z[WZWdZb_l[jh[[iYWdX[
Z_ifbWo[Z$IjWdZ_d\ehcWj_edikY^WiYkhh[djWddkWblebkc[_dYh[c[dj"ijWdZ_d]
lebkc[WdZjejWbfheZkYj_edf[h^[YjWh[Wh[WbieZ_ifbWo[Zedj^[h_]^j#^WdZi_Z[
)/& #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
e\j^[i_ckbWjeh$J^[kfZWj[Zi_d]b[jh[[Z_c[di_ediWjj^[[dZe\j^[f[h_eZWh[
Wjj^[iWc[j_c[_d_j_Wb_iWj_edZWjW\ehj^[d[nj]hemj^f[h_eZ$7\j[hj^[Yecfb[#
j_ede\Wi_ckbWj_edf[h_eZ"_d\ehcWj_edYedY[hd_d]j^[[lebkj_ede\j^[ijWdZYWd
X[h[fh[i[dj[Z[_j^[hWiZ_W]hWciehWio_[bZjWXb[i$
M_j^_dWi_ckbWj_edhkd"j^[ki[h^Wij^[efj_ed"j^hek]^j^[ÈJ^_dd_d]ÉXkj#
jed"jeY^eei[Z_\\[h[djj^_dd_d]iY[dWh_ei"ikY^Wim^[j^[hjeWffboWYb[Wh#Ykjeh
jeZ[\_d[WY[hjW_dWh[W\ehYkjj_d]ehjecWha_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[iWYYehZ_d]jeif[Y#
_\_[ZYh_j[h_W$M^[dWd_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[ehWdWh[We\jh[[i_icWha[Z\ehj^_dd_d]
j^[f[hY[djW][e\j^[h[cel[Zjh[[i_ifh[i[dj[ZWjj^[iWc[j_c[edj^[h_]^j#
^WdZi_Z[e\j^[i_ckbWjeh_dj[hcie\dkcX[he\jh[[i"XWiWbWh[WWdZlebkc["
j^ki]_l_d]j^[ki[hWc[Wikh[e\j^[j^_dd_d]_dj[di_jo$7jj^[[dZe\j^[i_ckbW#
j_edf[h_eZj^[i[Z_\\[h[djiY[dWh_eiYWdX[YecfWh[ZWdZ]_l[Wd_di_]^je\^em
j^[ijWdZh[ifedZijeZ_\\[h[dji_bl_YkbjkhWbjh[Wjc[dji$
È
/AKÈ3TANDÈ3IMULATION
M_j^j^[i_ckbWjeh:HOCEI"gk[ij_edie\^emWdeWaijWdZm_bbZ[l[befedW
]_l[di_j[WdZkdZ[hif[Y_\_Yj^_dd_d]iY[dWh_eiYWdX[[Wi_boWdim[h[Z$
I_ckbWj_ed hkdi YWd fh[Z_Yj ijWdZ fWhWc[j[hi XWiWb Wh[W" ijWdZ_d] lebkc["
cehjWb_jo"Zec_dWdj^[_]^j"c[Wd^[_]^jWdZZ_Wc[j[h_djWXkbWh\ehcehWiZ_#
W]hWci$7iWd[nWcfb["W'+#o[Wh#ebZijWdZe\Gk$\hW_d[jjemWii_ckbWj[ZkdZ[h
j^h[[j^_dd_d]iY[dWh_ei\ehWf[h_eZe\*&o[Whi$J^[Wffb_[Zj^_dd_d]iY[dWh_ei
m[h[Yedjhebdej^_dd_d]iWdZh[celWbe\'&WdZ'+e\j^[XWiWbWh[W[l[ho
'&o[Whi$J^[h[ikbjiWh[i^emd_d<_]i$'-$/WdZ'-$'&$7bj^ek]^j^[Z[l[befc[dj
e\XWiWbWh[Wi^emiiec[Z_\\[h[dY[iX[jm[[djh[Wjc[dji"j^[jejWblebkc[fhe#
ZkYj_ed_iib_]^jboZ_\\[h[djWced]jh[Wjc[dji$J^[^_]^[ijlWbk[iWh[eXi[hl[Z_d
j^[YedjhebWdZj^[bem[ijed[i_dj^[i_ckbWj_edm_j^j^[^_]^[hj^_dd_d]i$
&IGÈÈ3IMULATIONÈÈ
RESULTSÈFORÈBASALÈAREAÈÈ
DEVELOPMENTÈOFÈAÈ
YEAR
OLDÈ1UÈFRAINETTOÈ
STANDÈFORÈÈYEARS
È $ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSIONS )/'
È
$ISCUSSIONÈANDÈ#ONCLUSIONS
7bbh[]h[ii_edWdWboi[iYWhh_[Zekj_dI[Yj_ed'-$)m[h[XWi[Zedh[WblWbk[i
e\ j^[ [nf[h_c[djWb fbeji WdZ dej ed iceej^[Z ZWjW ZWjW Z[h_l[Z \hec [gkW#
j_edi$Ceh[if[Y_\_YWbbo"\eh[WY^jh[[WdZ]hemj^f[h_eZ"j^[_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[Ye#
ehZ_dWj[i"j^[Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h"j^[jh[[^[_]^jWdZj^[^[_]^jjej^[XWi[e\
b_l[Yhemdm[h[ki[Z$Iceej^[Zjh[[^[_]^jZWjWe\c_ii_d]jh[[^[_]^jim[h[ed#
boki[Z\ehj^[YWbYkbWj_ede\j^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n$
È
$IAMETERÈANDÈ(EIGHTÈ)NCREMENTÈ-ODELS
:_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[bi^Wl[j^h[[_cfehjWdj_dfkjlWh_WXb[i0
YhemdhWj_e9H"Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[9?WdZYhemdh[b[Wi[
9?$7bbj^[Ye[\\_Y_[djiki[Z_dfWhWc[j[h_pWj_ede\j^[i[ceZ[bim[h[i_]d_\_YWdj
Wjj^[i_]d_\_YWdY[b[l[be\&$&+$
9ecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n W\j[h Yhemd h[b[Wi[ _i j^[ gkWdj_\_YWj_ed e\ j^[ Ykhh[dj
Yecf[j_j_edijWjkie\j^[jh[[i$?jfhel_Z[iWc[Wikh[e\j^[WlW_bWX_b_joe\iYWhY[
h[iekhY[iikY^Wib_]^j"ce_ijkh[WdZdkjh_[dji$
9hemdhWj_eYWdX[_dj[hfh[j[ZWiWd_dZ[ne\j^[WX_b_joe\Wjh[[jekj_b_p[j^[
WXel[#c[dj_ed[Zh[iekhY[i$J^[i_p[e\j^[jh[[ÉiYhemd_ij^[ekjYec[e\j^[fWij
]hem_d]YedZ_j_ediWjjW_d[ZXoj^[jh[[$
J^[ Yhemd h[b[Wi[ lWh_WXb[ _i j^[ Z_\\[h[dY[ _d j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nYWbYk#
bWj[ZX[\eh[WdZW\j[hWj^_dd_d]ehdWjkhWbcehjWb_jo$?jYWdZ[iYh_X[j^[]hemj^
WYY[b[hWj_edieh]hemj^Z[Y[b[hWj_edim^[h[j^[fWhWc[j[h[ij_cWj[W)_id[]W#
j_l[ehfei_j_l["h[if[Yj_l[bo$<ehGk$\hW_d[jjej^_ilWh_WXb[_ii_]d_\_YWdjWdZfei#
_j_l[_dj^[Z_Wc[j[hWdZ^[_]^j_dYh[c[djceZ[bi"h[ikbj_d]_dWj[cfehWhoZ[#
Yh[Wi[_dj^[]hemj^_dXej^ceZ[bi<_]$'-$,WdZ'-$-$7feii_Xb[[nfbWdWj_ed
e\j^_i[\\[Yjc_]^jX[j^[bed]f[h_eZe\_dj[di[Yecf[j_j_edfh_ehjej^_dd_d]
&IGÈÈ3IMULATIONÈÈ
RESULTSÈFORÈTOTALÈVOLUMEÈ
PRODUCTIONÈOFÈAÈ
YEAR
OLDÈ1UÈFRAINETTOÈSTANDÈFORÈ
ÈYEARS
)/( #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
Yecc[dY[c[dj$Kdj^_dd[ZijWdZiYekbZ^Wl[X[[djeeZ[di[jeWbbemiWj_i\WYje#
hoZ[l[befc[dje\_dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[i$7iWh[ikbj"cWdoe\j^[ikhl_l_d]jh[[i_dj^[
fbejiWjj^[j_c[e\fbej[ijWXb_i^c[djWdZj^[\_hijj^_dd_d]m[h[icWbb"beml_]#
ekhjh[[im_j^dWhhemYhemdi"Z[j[h_ehWj_d]Yhemdi"feehXeb[gkWb_jo"cWdo[f_#
Yehc_YXhWdY^[iWdZb[iij^WdiWj_i\WYjeho]hemj^hWj[i$
=hemj^e\Gk$\hW_d[jjemWih[ijh_Yj[ZXoWYecX_dWj_ede\[nY[ii_l[ikcc[h
Zhek]^jf[h_eZi"bemjec[Z_kc\[hj_b_joZk[jeel[h]hWp_d]WdZfWijbWdZel[h#
[nfbe_jWj_ed$7bj^ek]^j^_dd_d]_cfhel[Ziec[e\j^[Yecf[j_j_ed\ehie_bce_i#
jkh[WdZdkjh_[dji"j^[_d^[h[djbemfheZkYj_l_joe\j^[i_j[_ji[b\b_c_j[Zj^[WX_b#
_joe\j^[h[i_ZkWbjh[iijeh[ifedZfei_j_l[bojej^[j^_dd_d]$<_]kh[i'-$+WdZ'-$.
Z[f_Yjj^_i_dWX_b_jojeh[ifedZfei_j_l[bojej^_dd_d]"[if[Y_Wbbo\ehj^[Zec_dWj#
[ZWdZikffh[ii[Zjh[[iYecfWh[Zjekdj^_dd[Zjh[[i"m^_Y^^WZj^[iWc[]hem#
_d]YedZ_j_edi_dj^[fWij$
È
4HEÈ#ROWNÈ-ODEL
J^[ceZ[bo_[bZ[Zgk_j[WYYkhWj[h[ikbji\ehj^[jh[[iedm^_Y^j^[Y^Wd][e\
j^[^[_]^jjej^[XWi[e\b_l[YhemdmWiWhekdZ+&Yc$>em[l[h"\ehY^Wd][iYbei[
je&ehWXel['c"j^[fh[Z_Yj_edim[h[feeh[h$
7X_]WZlWdjW][e\j^[ZodWc_YYhemdceZ[bZ[l[bef[ZXo>Wi[dWk[h'//*X
_ij^Wj_j^ebZi\ehijWdZie\WdoW][i$J^[W][jh[dZ_dj^_iceZ[b_i[nfh[ii[ZXo
j^[Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h$
J^[ fheXb[c e\ j^[ ikX`[Yj_l_jo _d j^[ `kZ]c[dj e\ m^[h[ j^[ XWi[ e\ b_l[
Yhemd _i YWki[i Z_\\_Ykbj_[i _d j^[ Z[l[befc[dj e\ Yhemd ceZ[bi" [if[Y_Wbbo _d
b_]^j#Z[cWdZ_d]if[Y_[iikY^WiGk$\hW_d[jjem^[h[j^_dd_d]iYWdYWki[bWh][[f#
_Yehc_YXhWdY^_d]"WdZlWh_Wj_edi_d`kZ]c[djWdZc[Wikh[c[dj[hhehZ[\_d_j[#
boW\\[Yjj^[h[ikbji$
È
4HEÈ-ORTALITYÈ-ODEL
?dZ_l_ZkWbjh[[cehjWb_jo\ehGk$\hW_d[jjeZ[f[dZiedj^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[n
W\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[9?"YhemdhWj_e9HWiWd_dZ_YWjehe\j^[fWij]hem_d]Yed#
Z_j_ediWdZj^[Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h\ehj^[Z[iYh_fj_ede\j^[W][jh[dZ$
8h[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[h_iWh[b_WXb[c[Wikh[e\Wjh[[Éii_p[$?j_iademdj^WjWi
j^[Z_Wc[j[he\Wjh[[X[Yec[ibWh][h"j^[Yecf[j_d]WX_b_joe\j^[jh[[X[Yec[i
]h[Wj[hWdZj^kij^[cehjWb_johWj[i^ekbZZ[Yh[Wi[$?dj^[h[]h[ii_edWdWboi_ie\
j^[cehjWb_joceZ[b_j^WiX[[d\ekdZj^Wjj^[Xh[Wij^[_]^jZ_Wc[j[hWdZj^[_d#
l[hi[Z_Wc[j[h'%ZX^lWh_WXb[iWh[^_]^boi_]d_\_YWdj\ehj^[fh[Z_Yj_ede\j^[
cehjWb_jo$ J^[ _dl[hi[ Z_Wc[j[h lWh_WXb[ Z[iYh_X[Z m[bb j^[ hWf_Z Z[Yb_d[ \hec
^_]^cehjWb_jo\ehicWbbZ_Wc[j[hjh[[ijeWceh[]hWZkWbZ[Yb_d[_dcehjWb_jo\eh
bWh][Z_Wc[j[hjh[[i$
Jh[[Yhemd_iWd_cfehjWdjWjjh_Xkj[\ehjh[[ikhl_lWbX[YWki[_j_iWd[nfh[i#
i_ede\Wjh[[Éil_]ekh$=[d[hWbbo"_j_i[nf[Yj[Zj^WjcehjWb_joi^ekbZX[bem[h\eh
2EFERENCES )/)
jh[[im_j^bWh][Yhemdi$9hemdhWj_emWiijWj_ij_YWbboi_]d_\_YWdj_dj^[cehjWb_#
joceZ[b$Cedi[hkZWdZIj[hXW'///\ekdZj^[YhemdhWj_elWh_WXb[deji_]d_\_#
YWdj\eheWaif[Y_[i_dj^[_hcehjWb_joceZ[b$7feii_Xb[[nfbWdWj_edYekbZX[j^[
icWbbdkcX[he\eWajh[[i-.*ki[Z_dj^[h[]h[ii_edWdWboi_i$
9ecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nmWiWbieWi_]d_\_YWdjfh[Z_Yjehe\cehjWb_jo$J^[fheXWX_b#
_joe\cehjWb_jo_dYh[Wi[iWij^[Yecf[j_j_ed_dZ[nW\j[hYhemdh[b[Wi[_dYh[Wi[i
WdZWij^[YhemdhWj_eZ[Yh[Wi[i$
?d Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[dj _dZ_l_ZkWb jh[[ i_ckbWjehi" cehjWb_jo _i Yedi_Z[h[Z W
Z_iYh[j[ [l[dj X[YWki[ e\ j^[ dWjkh[ e\ j^[ Yecf[j_j_ed _dZ[n YWbYkbWj_ed$ ;WY^
jh[[_ih[]_ij[h[ZWi[_j^[hYecfb[j[boZ[WZehWb_l[$?dj^[:HOCEIi_ckbWjehj^[
fh[Z_Yj[ZfheXWX_b_joe\cehjWb_jo_iYecfWh[Zm_j^Wkd_\ehchWdZecdkcX[h
][d[hWjehm_j^c[Wd&WdZijWdZWhZZ[l_Wj_ed'$?\j^[][d[hWj[ZhWdZecdkcX[h
_ib[iij^Wdj^[fh[Z_Yj[ZcehjWb_jo"j^[jh[[_iYedi_Z[h[ZZ[WZWdZ_ih[cel[Z
\hecj^[jh[[b_ij$
J^[cW`ehYedYbki_edij^WjYWdX[ZhWmd\hecj^_iijkZoWh[Wi\ebbemi0
Ä Gk$\hW_d[jjeijWdZiYWdX[[\\_Y_[djboceZ[bb[Zm_j^Z_ijWdY[#Z[f[dZ[djWdZ
i_j[fej[dj_WbWffheWY^$
Ä Jh[[i_p["]hemj^WdZYecf[j_j_edWh[j^[cW_dZh_l_d]lWh_WXb[i_dfh[Z_Yj_d]
]hemj^WdZZ[l[befc[dje\Gk$\hW_d[jje$
Ä J^[:HOCEIi_ckbWjeh_iYWfWXb[e\h[\b[Yj_d]j^[[lebkj_edWdZ\kjkh[ijWdZ
ZodWc_Yi e\ Gk$ \hW_d[jje kdZ[h Z_\\[h[dj ijWdZ Z[di_j_[i WdZ i_bl_YkbjkhWb
jh[Wjc[dji$
7ifkXb_Yef_d_ededckbj_fb[ki[ie\\eh[iji_i][jj_d]ijhed][h"_j_iX[Yec_d]
_dYh[Wi_d]bokdb_a[boj^Wjj^[jhWZ_j_edWbo_[bZjWXb[im_bbX[WXb[jefhel_Z[iebk#
j_ediWdZWdim[hijeYed\b_Yj_d]_dj[h[ijie\\eh[ijcWdW][c[dj$J^[YedY[fjfh[#
i[dj[Z^[h[e\\[hiWdWbj[hdWj_l[iebkj_edjej^_ifheXb[c$
2EFERENCES
!PATSIDISÈ $,È È #ONSTRUCTIONÈ OFÈ NORMALÈ YIELDÈ TABLESÈ FORÈ OAKÈ )NÈ 'REEKÈ &ORESTRYÈ 3OCIETYÈ
ED È5TILIZATIONÈOFÈFORESTÈRESOURCESÈ0ROCÈTHÈ0ANHELLENICÈ&ORESTÈ#ONFÈ+ARDITSAÈnÈ/CTÈ
PPÈn
!PATSIDISÈ$,È3IFAKISÈ#È È#OMPUTERÈPROGRAMÈ!03)È!0ATSIDISÈ3)FAKIS ÈFORÈTHEÈCALCULATIONÈOFÈ
THEÈDYNAMICÈGROWINGÈSTOCKÈVOLUMEÈINCREMENTÈSITEÈINDEXÈETCÈOFÈBEECHÈFIRÈBLACKÈPINEÈOAKÈ
!LEPPOÈPINEÈANDÈ0INUSÈBRUTIAÈSTANDSÈ)NÈ'REEKÈ&ORESTRYÈ3OCIETYÈED È&ORESTÈDEVELOPMENTÈ
nÈ OWNERSHIPÈ PROBLEMÈ nÈ ZONINGÈ PLANÈ PROBLEMÈ 0ROCÈ THÈ 0ANHELLENICÈ &ORESTÈ #ONFÈ #HANIAÈ
nÈ!PRILÈPPÈn
!PATSIDISÈ $,È 3IFAKISÈ #È 0APADOPOULOSÈ 'È È #OMPUTERÈ PROGRAMÈ !30!È !PAT3IDISÈ 0!PAD
OPOULOS È FORÈ THEÈ CALCULATIONÈ OFÈ THEÈ GROWINGÈ STOCKÈ VOLUMEÈ INCREMENTÈ SITEÈ INDEXÈ ETCÈ OFÈ
BEECHÈFIRÈANDÈBLACKÈPINEÈSTANDSÈ-INISTRYÈOFÈ!GRICULTUREÈ'ENERALÈ3ECRETARIATÈOFÈ&ORESTSÈANDÈ
.ATURALÈ%NVIRONMENTÈ!THENS
!RNEYÈ*$È È#OMPUTERÈSIMULATIONÈOFÈ$OUGLASÈFIRÈTREEÈANDÈSTANDÈGROWTHÈ0H$È4HESISÈ/REGONÈ
3TATEÈ5NIVERSITYÈ#ORVALLISÈ/REGONÈ5NIVERSITYÈMICROFILMSÈ
È
!SSMANNÈ%È È4HEÈPRINCIPLESÈOFÈFORESTÈYIELDÈSTUDYÈ0ERGAMONÈ0RESSÈ.EWÈ9ORKÈÈPP
)/* #(!04%2È CeZ[bb_d]j^[=hemj^e\Gk[hYki\hW_d[jje_d=h[[Y[
3UBJECTÈ)NDEX
! %
!SSESSMENTÈOFÈREGENERATIONÈ È %VALUATIONÈ ÈÈÈ
!SSORTMENTSÈOFÈTIMBERÈ
&
" &ORESTÈENTERPRISEÈLEVELÈ
"IODIVERSITYÈ &ORESTÈMANAGEMENTÈANDÈTREEÈMODELSÈ
"ROWSINGÈIMPACTSÈ &UZZYÈINTERFACEÈTECHNIQUESÈ
"7).02/VÈ È
'
# 'APÈMODELSÈ
#ALIBRATIONÈOFÈTHEÈMODELÈ 'ROWTHÈCONDITIONSÈ
#ATEGORIZINGÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELSÈ 'ROWTHÈMODELINGÈCONCEPTSÈ ÈÈÈ
#OMPETITIONÈINDEXÈ ÈÈÈ
#ONCEPTSÈOFÈTREEÈGROWTHÈMODELINGÈ (
#ONVERSIONÈ È (ARVESTINGÈ È
#OPPICEÈMANAGEMENTÈ (EIGHTÈINCREMENTÈ ÈÈÈÈÈ
#ORKÈPRODUCTIONÈ È ÈÈÈ
#/2+&)43È (ISTORICÈDEVELOPMENTÈ È
#ROWNÈMODELÈ ÈÈÈ
)
$ )DENTIFICATIONÈOFÈINDIVIDUALÈTREESÈ È
$AMAGEÈMODELÈ È )NCREMENTÈFUNCTIONÈ
$ATAÈCOLLECTIONÈFORÈREGENERATIONÈMODELSÈ )NCREMENTÈMODELÈ
È )NDIVIDUALÈTREEÈMODELSÈ
$ATAÈNEEDSÈ
$ECISIONÈANALYSISÈ ÈÈÈ *
$ECISIONÈSUPPORTÈ ÈÈÈÈÈ *UVENILEÈTREEÈGROWTHÈ
ÈÈ
$IAMETERÈGROWTHÈPOTENTIALÈ ÈÈ ,
$IAMETERÈINCREMENTÈ ÈÈÈÈ ,ONG
TERMÈPRODUCTIONÈPROGRAMSÈ
ÈÈ
$ISTRIBUTIONÈMODELSÈ -
$IVERSITYÈSTRUCTURAL È -ANAGEMENTÈREGIMESÈEVALUATIONÈ
$29-/3È -ECHANISTICÈMODELSÈ
-IXEDÈSTANDSÈ
)/. 3UBJECTÈ)NDEX
2 7
2EGENERATIONÈ ÈÈÈÈ 7HOLEÈSTANDÈMODELSÈ
2EMOTEÈSENSINGÈ
2EQUIREMENTSÈOFÈTHEÈENDÈUSERÈ 9
9IELDÈTABLESÈ
3
3CENARIOÈANALYSESÈ ÈÈ
3)"9,!È