Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Key Financials - Trend
Parameters
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR)
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x)
Average Return on Equity (5-Years)
Average P/E (5-Years, x)
Latest P/E (x)
Warning! Excel can be a wonde
the past. But it can be a we
destruction to predict the future
of what you are getting into. He
always equal garba
Details
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
266 Remember! Focus on decision
1.0 Look for disconfirming evidenc
85.0
22,593
Please! It's your money. Please
Details
results of this excel cause you
10.5% designed this excel to aid your
9.8% you alone are responsible for yo
10.0% live peacefully ever after! I am
0.0 wants you to do the hard wo
13.4% companies on your own. But I'd
25.6 compass instead of a map, for
map with territory and lose it
32.8
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
past. But it can be a weapon of mass
on to predict the future! So be very careful
you are getting into. Here, garbage in will
always equal garbage out.

ber! Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

t's your money. Please don't blame me if

of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
d this excel to aid your own thinking, but
are responsible for your actions. I want to
acefully ever after! I am not a sadist who
you to do the hard work by analyzing
es on your own. But I'd rather give you a
ss instead of a map, for you can confuse
ith territory and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 80 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85
Reserves 1,138 2,105 2,630 2,947 3,314 3,623 3,947 4,426 4,879 5,304
Borrowings 317 90 2 - - - 18 103 170 -
Other Liabilities 584 690 904 1,074 1,164 1,265 1,376 1,557 1,678 2,051
Total 2,119 2,969 3,621 4,106 4,563 4,973 5,426 6,171 6,811 7,440

Net Block 668 677 836 967 994 998 1,090 1,265 1,546 1,958
Capital Work in Progress 17 38 47 27 59 51 100 186 141 234
Investments 668 1,335 1,378 1,555 1,640 1,967 1,896 2,698 2,674 1,969
Other Assets 766 919 1,360 1,558 1,870 1,957 2,340 2,022 2,450 3,279
Total 2,119 2,969 3,621 4,106 4,563 4,973 5,426 6,171 6,811 7,440

Working Capital 181 230 456 484 706 692 964 465 773 1,228
Debtors 231 255 366 402 509 517 555 604 622 943
Inventory 438 607 859 965 1,167 1,186 1,523 1,134 1,527 1,760
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,618
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 23 22 30 29 31 32 30 32 30 37
Inventory Turnover 9 7 5 5 5 5 4 6 5 5
Fixed Asset Turnover 5.6 6.2 5.4 5.2 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7
Debt/Equity 0.3 0.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
Return on Equity 23% 25% 25% 15% 15% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12%
Return on Capital Employed 39% 59% 41% 28% 27% 27% 25% 33% 26% 19%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 3,736 4,180 4,507 5,066 6,013 5,909 6,802 6,795 7,583 9,186 9,867
% Growth YOY 12% 8% 12% 19% -2% 15% 0% 12% 21%
Expenses 3,189 3,288 3,626 4,380 5,228 5,093 5,893 5,777 6,500 7,986 8,601
Material Cost (% of Sales) 59% 53% 67% 68% 69% 68% 71% 59% 66% 67% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 16% 17% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10% 10% 8%
Operating Profit 548 892 881 686 786 816 909 1,017 1,083 1,200 1,266
Operating Profit Margin 15% 21% 20% 14% 13% 14% 13% 15% 14% 13% 13%
Other Income 7 12 151 67 76 35 32 52 104 58 49
Other Income as % of Sales 0.2% 0.3% 3.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5%
Depreciation 68 81 83 101 113 126 140 158 206 246 262
Interest 52 14 9 8 6 2 3 3 5 7 5
Interest Coverage(Times) 9 61 109 87 130 302 283 331 186 154 219
Profit before tax (PBT) 435 810 940 645 742 723 798 908 976 1,006 1,049
% Growth YOY 86% 16% -31% 15% -3% 10% 14% 7% 3%
PBT Margin 12% 19% 21% 13% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 11% 11%
Tax 151 273 274 184 220 236 253 284 282 338 359
Net profit 284 537 666 461 523 487 546 624 694 668 689
% Growth YOY 89% 24% -31% 13% -7% 12% 14% 11% -4%
Net Profit Margin 8% 13% 15% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7%
EPS 3.6 6.3 7.8 5.4 6.2 5.7 6.4 7.3 8.2 7.9 8.1
% Growth YOY 78% 24% -31% 13% -7% 12% 14% 11% -4%
Price to earning 13.8 19.2 18.4 24.8 20.7 21.8 28.2 19.0 28.2 30.6 32.8
Price 49 121 145 134 128 125 181 140 230 240 266
Dividend Payout 16.9% 15.8% 19.1% 27.6% 26.0% 31.4% 34.3% 32.7% 29.4% 30.5%
Market Cap 3,938 10,290 12,285 11,418 10,842 10,620 15,411 11,860 19,552 20,421
Retained Earnings 236 452 539 334 387 334 359 420 490 464
Buffett's $1 Test 4.1

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 10.5% 10.7% 8.8% 10.5%
PBT Growth 9.8% 1.0% 6.3% 8.0%
PBT Margin 13.8% 12.3% 12.2% 12.4%
Price to Earning 22.5 24.8 25.6 25.9

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 59% 53% 67% 68% 69% 68% 71% 59% 66% 67%
Change in Inventory -1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 4% -4% 4% 2%
Power and Fuel 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Employee Cost 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Selling and Admin Cost 16% 17% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10% 10% 8%
Other Expenses -1% -1% -1% 0% -1% -1% -1% -1% 0% 1%
Operating Profit 16% 19% 11% 12% 9% 10% 5% 22% 7% 10%
Other Income 0% 0% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Interest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 12% 19% 21% 13% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 11%
Tax 4% 7% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Net Profit 8% 13% 15% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7%
Dividend Amount 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 54% 71% 73% 72% 73% 73% 73% 72% 72% 71%
Borrowings 15% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0%
Other Liabilities 28% 23% 25% 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 28%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 32% 23% 23% 24% 22% 20% 20% 21% 23% 26%
Capital Work in Progress 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3%
Investments 32% 45% 38% 38% 36% 40% 35% 44% 39% 26%
Other Assets 36% 31% 38% 38% 41% 39% 43% 33% 36% 44%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 11% 9% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 13%
Inventory 21% 20% 24% 24% 26% 24% 28% 18% 22% 24%
Cash & Bank 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 505 524 398 510 360 647 325 1,340 430 517 5,554
Cash from Investing Activity -319 -769 -184 -323 -180 -434 -213 -1,146 -307 -28 -3,904
Cash from Financing Activity -154 214 -201 -144 -163 -168 -202 -150 -178 -421 -1,566
Net Cash Flow 32 -31 12 43 17 45 -90 44 -55 67 84
CFO/Sales 14% 13% 9% 10% 6% 11% 5% 20% 6% 6%
CFO/Net Profit 177% 98% 60% 111% 69% 133% 59% 215% 62% 77%
Capex** 375 315 212 364 565 607 937 1156 1638 1238
FCF 130 209 186 146 -205 40 -613 184 -1,208 -721 -1,853
Average FCF (3 Years) -582
FCF/Sales 3% 5% 4% 3% -3% 1% -9% 3% -16% -8%
FCF/Net Profit 46% 39% 28% 32% -39% 8% -112% 29% -174% -108%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Read the book - Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained P
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
of capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

Company Name EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD

Latest Year Ended Mar-18

Calculation of Normalized Earnings

(Rs Crore) Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Sales 5,909 6,802 6,795 7,583 9,186
EBIT 725 801 911 981 1,013
Less - Adjustment 4 4 5 5 5
EBIT (Adjusted) 722 797 906 976 1,008
EBIT Margin'(Adjusted) 12% 12% 13% 13% 11%
Tax Rate 33% 32% 31% 29% 34%
Earnings After Tax (Adjusted) 486 545 623 694 669
Depreciation 126 140 158 206 246
Maintenance Capex (See Table Below) 626 770 1,157 1,491 939
Earnings After Tax (Normalized, A) -15 -86 -376 -591 -24
Reported Profit After Tax (B) 487 546 624 694 668

EPV Process (as per Greenwald's book, slightly modified) -

1. Start with operating earnings, i.e. EBIT. Adjust any one-time charges. I deduct 0.5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment
2. Apply a tax rate to the adjusted EBIT. I use the actual tax rate calculated from the Income Statement. After reducing this tax,
3. Add back Depreciation
4. Subtract Maintenance Capex
5. After these four steps, you arrive at Normalized Earnings
6. Divide this Normalized Earnings number by the Discount Rate to arrive at EPV. I use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.
7. Note that Greenwald's process as per his book is slightly more detailed than what I have used here

Calculation of Maintenance Capex

(Rs Crore) Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Fixed Assets (PPE) 998 1,090 1,265 1,546 1,958
Net Sales 5,909 6,802 6,795 7,583 9,186
PPE/Sales 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.20 0.21
Change in Sales -104 893 -7 789 1,603
Total Capex 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238
Growth Capex -19 167 -1 147 299
Maintenance Capex 626 770 1,157 1,491 939

Calculating Maintenance Capex, as per Greenwald's book -

1. Calculate the Average Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE) / Sales ratio over 5-7 years
2. Calculate current year’s increase in sales
3. Multiply PPE/Sales ratio by increase in sales to arrive at Growth Capex
4. Maintenance Capex = Total Capex figure from the cash flow statement minus Growth Capex calculated above
(Bruce Greenwald)
nd by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained Page 93 onwards)
king an assumption about the sustainability of current earnings and the cost
rmula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

EPV with Different Cost of Capital

Discount Rate EPV Net Cash** Total EPV Per Share
10% -238 4,618 4,380 52
12% -198 4,618 4,420 52
15% -159 4,618 4,459 52
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 22,593
EPV as % of Market Cap 20%

** Change the "Cash & Bank" number in "Balance Sheet" sheet

(Row #19) so that the correct number automatically reflects here

5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment

e Income Statement. After reducing this tax, we arrive at Adjusted Earnings After Tax

use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.

at I have used here

over 5-7 years

owth Capex calculated above

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (669) (597) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (770) (613) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (885) (630) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (974) (619) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (1,071) (608) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (1,178) (597) Sales 9% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (1,237) (559) PBT 6% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (1,299) (525) FCF 29% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (1,364) (492) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (1,432) (461) 10 FY27
10 -14,318 (4,610) 10
Intrinsic Value (5,693) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 22,593 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -497% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 20%
(698) (623) Year 4-6 15%
(838) (668) Year 7-10 10%
(1,006) (716) Discount Rate 12%
(1,156) (735)
(1,330) (755)
(1,529) (775)
(1,682) (761)
(1,850) (747)
(2,035) (734)
(2,239) (721)
(33,586) (10,814)
Intrinsic Value (13,430)
Current Mkt. Cap. 22,593
Premium/(Discount) to IV -268%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 603.9 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 2.5 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 8,174 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 22,593 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
Mar/18

603.9
8.5
5.0

11,215
22,593

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (582) ###

22,593
Years 1-5 6-10 -59%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,618)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (669) 15% (597)
2 (770) 15% (613)
3 (885) 15% (630)
4 (1,018) 15% (647)
5 (1,170) 15% (664)
6 (1,311) 12% (664)
7 (1,468) 12% (664)
8 (1,644) 12% (664)
9 (1,842) 12% (664)
10 (2,063) 12% (664)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (2,104)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (6,472)
Terminal Value (6,774)
Total PV of Cash Flows (13,247)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 22,593

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 284 537 666 461 523 487 546
Net Profit Margin 8% 13% 15% 9% 9% 8% 8%
Return on Equity 23% 25% 25% 15% 15% 13% 14%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 2,076
Current P/E (x) 33.8
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 41,516
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 13,367
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 22,593

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
624 694 668 10% 5%
9% 9% 7%
14% 14% 12%
 Intrinsic Value Range
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
EPV 4,420 52.00 52 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Dhandho -5,693 -13,430 (66.97) (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
Ben Graham 8,174 11,215 96.16 131.94 understand this business?
DCF -13,247 (155.84)
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Expected Return 13,367 157.26 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
Current Market Cap. 22,593 be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidenc
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18
Sales 1,770 2,010 1,925 1,715 1,955 2,090 2,357 2,278 2,459 2,772
% Growth YOY 10% 4% 22% 33% 26% 33%
Expenses 1,505 1,696 1,636 1,488 1,703 1,766 2,103 1,996 2,121 2,382
Operating Profit 266 314 289 227 252 324 254 283 338 391
Other Income 23 15 23 37 31 13 14 11 20 4
Depreciation 44 49 51 52 54 56 60 63 67 72
Interest 1 2 1 5 - 2 2 1 1 1
Profit before tax 244 278 261 208 228 280 206 230 290 322
PBT Margin 14% 14% 14% 12% 12% 13% 9% 10% 12% 12%
% Growth YOY -6% 0% -21% 11% 27% 15%
Tax 68 82 79 56 64 91 71 76 101 112
Net profit 175 196 182 152 164 189 136 154 190 210
% Growth YOY -6% -4% -25% 2% 15% 11%
OPM 15% 16% 15% 13% 13% 16% 11% 12% 14% 14%
COMPANY NAME EXIDE INDUSTRIES LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 85.00
Face Value 1
Current Price 265.8
Market Capitalization 22593

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 3736.46 4179.96 4507.15 5066.47 6013.26 5908.91
Raw Material Cost 2222.41 2207.61 3023.85 3468.04 4174.76 4020.95
Change in Inventory -25.95 49.27 200.86 32.03 136.03 102.88
Power and Fuel 118.89 135.78 164.04 178.51 225.21 208.07
Other Mfr. Exp 69.28 94.72 119.31 146.93 186.32 183.58
Employee Cost 165.2 229.78 277.78 286.21 349.27 355.86
Selling and admin 612 698.53 298.09 357.08 478.09 476.53
Other Expenses -25.23 -29.31 -56.3 -24.4 -50 -48.95
Other Income 6.77 12.43 151.07 67.26 75.88 35.33
Depreciation 67.94 80.65 83.46 100.68 113.48 125.6
Interest 51.6 13.51 8.69 7.54 5.76 2.4
Profit before tax 435.19 810.39 940.16 645.17 742.28 723.08
Tax 150.8 273.3 273.8 184 219.5 236
Net profit 284.39 537.09 666.36 461.17 522.78 487.08
Dividend Amount 48 85 127.5 127.5 136 153

Quarters
Report Date Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17
Sales 1770.45 2010.34 1925.26 1715.08 1954.59 2090.24
Expenses 1504.83 1696.11 1636.13 1487.76 1702.69 1765.97
Other Income 23.27 15.01 23.13 37.36 30.88 13.21
Depreciation 43.93 49.1 50.6 52.18 54.44 56.3
Interest 1.4 1.71 0.59 4.61 1.56
Profit before tax 243.56 278.43 261.07 207.89 228.34 279.62
Tax 68.35 82.38 79.26 56.37 64.08 90.62
Net profit 175.21 196.05 181.81 151.52 164.26 189
Operating Profit 265.62 314.23 289.13 227.32 251.9 324.27

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 80 85 85 85 85 85
Reserves 1137.75 2104.51 2630.25 2946.63 3313.87 3622.74
Borrowings 317.18 89.99 2.15
Other Liabilities 584.4 689.5 903.76 1074.34 1163.98 1264.91
Total 2119.33 2969 3621.16 4105.97 4562.85 4972.65
Net Block 668 676.68 835.84 966.55 994.41 998.02
Capital Work in Progress 17.31 37.76 47.48 26.64 58.77 50.98
Investments 668.48 1335.37 1377.98 1554.62 1640.13 1967.01
Other Assets 765.54 919.19 1359.86 1558.16 1869.54 1956.64
Total 2119.33 2969 3621.16 4105.97 4562.85 4972.65
Receivables 231.02 254.58 366.22 402.3 509.19 516.64
Inventory 438.47 606.77 858.94 965.01 1167.1 1185.57
Cash & Bank 33.71 2.88 14.74 57.67 74.79 119.95
No. of Equity Shares 800000000 850000000 850000000 850000000 850000000 850000000
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 504.73 523.84 397.79 510.06 359.72 646.95
Cash from Investing Activity -318.88 -769.15 -184.45 -322.86 -180.09 -434.27
Cash from Financing Activity -153.82 214.48 -201.48 -144.27 -162.51 -167.52
Net Cash Flow 32.03 -30.83 11.86 42.93 17.12 45.16

PRICE: 49.222222 121.05952 144.52632 134.325 127.5525 124.94211

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 80.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 85.00 85.00
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

6802.03 6794.61 7583.47 9186.32
4834.41 3989.3 5009.31 6154.96
282.43 -252 294.25 144.53
224.07 213.27 254.95 286.72
229.24 201.95 241.32 235.1
416.78 467.03 519.57 597.17
523.79 700.75 742.16 780.17
-52.66 -46.85 26.97 76.48
32.01 51.7 103.88 58.41
139.52 157.93 206.32 245.94
2.83 2.75 5.27 6.56
798.49 908.18 975.73 1006.16
252.62 283.72 282.09 337.81
545.87 624.46 693.64 668.35
187 204 204 204

Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18

2356.7 2278.29 2459.41 2772.46
2102.65 1995.71 2121.38 2381.54
13.87 11.05 20.28 4.2
59.67 62.54 67.43 71.88
2.12 0.93 0.63 1.12
206.13 230.16 290.25 322.12
70.61 75.89 100.69 112.2
135.52 154.27 189.56 209.92
254.05 282.58 338.03 390.92

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 85 85 85 85
3947 4426.43 4878.59 5304.31
17.55 102.51 170.23
1376.07 1556.81 1677.51 2050.64
5425.62 6170.75 6811.33 7439.95
1090.16 1265.41 1546 1958.33
100.17 185.81 141.36 233.5
1895.67 2697.84 2673.94 1969
2339.62 2021.69 2450.03 3279.12
5425.62 6170.75 6811.33 7439.95
555.04 603.94 621.65 943.39
1522.76 1133.51 1527.37 1760.15
29.82 73.83 19.57 87.19
850000000 850000000 850000000 850000000

1 1 1 1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

324.5 1339.76 429.91 516.61
-213.04 -1146 -307.22 -28.04
-201.6 -149.74 -178.13 -421.25
-90.14 44.02 -55.44 67.32

181.3025 139.526316 230.026316 240.245238

85.00 85.00 85.00 85.00

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