FAO FORESTRY PAPER 22/2

forest volume estimation

rediction
and yield prediction
vol. 2-yiel1
vol. 2 -yield prediction

by
by

d. alder
d.
commonwealth forestry institute, u.k.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF
OF THE UNITED NATIONS
NATIONS
Rome
Rome 1980
1980
 The designations employed
The employed andand the presentation
presentation
of material
material in in this
this publication do not
publication do not imply
imply the
expressionofof any
expression any opinion
opinion whatsoever
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part of the
part the Food
Food and
andAgriculture
AgricultureOrganization
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of thethe United
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orboundaries.
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M-35
M-35
ISBN 92-5-100923-6
ISBN 92-5-100923-6

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«: FAO 1980
FAD
 - iii
- iii --

Table of Contents
Content'

Page
INl'RoruCTION - THE PROBLEM
PROBLEM OF GROWTH
CROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION
1•
-----
INTRODUCTION- THE
--- "- -- - 1

1.1
1.1 REASONS FOR PREDICTING CROWTH
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD 11
1.1.1 Production Planning 11
11.1.2
• 1 .2 Silvicultural Research and Planning
Silvicultural Planning 11
11.1.3
• 1• 3 ECological
Ecological Research and Environmental Management
Environmental Management 11
"1.2
1.2 'rHE MEI'HODOLOGY OF GROWTH
THE METHODOLOGY CROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION
PREDICTION 2

1.2.1
1.2.1 The Estimation of Growth and Yield
Yield 2
2
1.2.2
1.2.2 The Construction
Con, truction of a
a MathematIcal
y",themat i cal Model
Model and Its
Its Fitting
Fitting to
to Growth
Growth 3
and Yield Data
IBta
1.2.3 Testing of the Model
Model for
for Validity 3
1.2.4 The Application of the Model
Model to the Required
Required End-Use
End-Use 4

2. DESIGN OF YIELD PREDICTION

PREDICTION STUDIES
S'l'UDIES 5
2.1 SPECIAL FEATURES OF
OF REGRESSION
REGRESSION PARAMETER
PARAMETER ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION 5
2.2 SAMPLING DESIGN FOR
FOR MODEL
MODEL CONSTRUCTION 5
2.2 .1
2.2.1 Temporary Plots 6
6

2.2.1.1 Forest inventory

Forest 66
2.2.1.2 Growth
Growth est imat ion from annual
estimation annual ri Tl€'s
rings 66
2.2.1.3
2.2.1.3 Sa,mpling
Sampling for
for allometric relations hips
relationships 6
2.2.1.4 Sampling
Sampling to
to define parameters of harvesting
harvestin~ operations 66
2.2.1.5 Regeneration surveys 7?
2.2.2 Permanent Sample
Sample Plots
Plots 7?
2.2.2.1 Number
Number of
of PSPs
PSPs required 7?
2.2.2.2 Location of PSPs 8
2.2.2.3 Size of PSPs 8
2.2.2.4 of PSPs
Shape of PSPs 99
2.2 . 2.5
2.2.2.5 Frequency and timing of
of remeasurements 9
2.2.2.6 Sampling with partial replacement 10

2.3 ~PERIMENTAL DESIGNS

EXPERIMINTAL DESIGNS 10
10

2.3.1 Randomized Designs

Designs 11
11

2.3.1.1 Randomized
Randr,mized block
block experiments 11
11
2.3.1.2 Factorial
Factorial experiments 12
12

2.3.2 Syst emat ic Designs

Systematic Des igns 12
2.3.2.1 Single tree experiments 12
2.3.2.2 Clinal
Clinal plots 13
2.4 ~LES OF
EXAMPLES OF GROWTH
CROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD EXPERIMENTS
=ERIMENrS 14
2.4.1 Uniform Forests 14
14

2.4.1.1 Spacing experiments 14

14
2.4.1.2 Constant
Constant basal
basal area thinning experiments
experiments 15
 - iv--
- iv

2.4.1.3 eXperiments using

Thinning experiments using graded
graded thinning
thinning treatments
treatments 15
15
2.4.1.4 Factorial experiments with
Factorial experiments with different
different components
components of
of thinning
thinning 16
16
treatment

2.4.2 Mixed Forests 16

2.4.2.1 Randomized bloc5.
Randomized block design 17
17
2.4.2.2
2.4.2.2 Treatment definition
Treatment 17
2.4.2.3 Measurements
Measurements and
and plot
plot design
design 17

3. PRCCElXIRES
PRCCEDURES FOR DATA
DATA COLLECTION
COLLEX:TION AND
AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS 19
3.1 SAMPLE PLOT DEMARCATION 19
19

3.1.1 Location 19
3.1.22 PSP Identification
3.1. Identification on the Ground 19
3.1.3 Determination of Edge Trees 19
3.1.4 Marking Trees 20
3.1.5 Mapping Trees on
on the
the Plot
Plot 20
3.1.6 Identity
Identity Numbers
Numbers for
for Ingrowth 20
3.2
3.~ SAMPLE PLOT
PLOT MEASUREMENT FORMS AND
MEASUREMMT FORMS AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS 21

3.2.1 Forests
Uniform Forests 21
3.2.2 Mixed Forest 24
3.2.3 Initial Assessment
Initial Plots
Assessment of Permanent Plots 25
3.3
3.3 STEI~
STEM ANALYSIS PROCElXIRE
PROCEDURE 26
3.4 SPECIAL MEl'HODS
METHODS OF
OF TREE INCREMENT
INCRE)!ENT ESTIMATION 28
3.4.1 Simple Measurements 28
3.4.2 Remeasurement on
on Buttressed
Buttressed Trees
Trees 28
3.4.3 Girth Bands
Bands 29
3.4.4 Growth Ring Measurements 30

3.5
3.5 INDIRECT
INDIRECT TREE
TREE AND
AND D<l>lINANT
DOMINANT HEIGHT
HEIGHT ESTIMATION
ESTDIATION 31

DATA STORAGE SYSTEMS 33

4.1 ADVANTAGES
ADVANTAGE2 OF COMPUTER-BASED
COMPUTER-BASED DATA
DATA STORAGE
STORAGE SYSTEMS 33
4.2 DATA VALIDATION 34

4.3 CONTRACTS FOR THE PREPARATION

PREPARATION OF COMPUTER PROGRAMMES 35

4.4 STORAGE SYSTEMS FOR PLOT DATA

DATA 36

4.4.1 Introduction 36
4.4.2 File
File Structures
Structures 36
4.4.3 arror
Error Checking and Editing Functions 37
4.4.4
4.4.4 Summaries
Plot Summaries 38
4.4.5 other utilities
Other Utilities 38
4.4.6 Data Bas-,
Data Bas o Security
Security 38

4.5 DATA TRANSFER BEI'WEEN SYSTEMS

BETWEEN COMPUTER SYSTEMS 39
 - v-

5. ANALYSIS OFGROWTH
ANALnIS OF GROWTHAND
ANDYIELD
YIELDDATA
DATAPOR
FOR UN-LPORM
UNIFORM FOREST 40
5.1 SITE
SITE CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION 40
5.1.1
5. Height as an Indicator
1• 1 Use of Dominant Height Indicator of
of Site
Site 40
5.1.2 Construction ofof Site
Site Index Curves
Curves 41
41
5.1.2.1 Graphical
Graphical methods
methods of
of construction 41
5.1.2.2
5. 1.2.2 Mathematical methods of fitting site
Mathematical methods index curves
curves 45
45
5.1.3 Site
Site Assessment
Assessment Models Based on
on Ehvironmental
Environmental Factors
Fact ors 61
5.1.3.1 FUnctional for si-te
FUnctional models for class predi~tion
site class prediction 61
5.1.3.2
5. 1.3.2 Cons truction and selection of environmental
Construction environmental variables 62
5.1.3.1
5.1. 3. 3 Problems in the anplication
application of
of site
site assessment
assessment functions
functions 62
5.72
5. STATIC METHODS OF PREDICTING YIELD 63
Graphical ~!ethods
5.2.1 Graphical Bas ed on the Diameter/Height Function
Methods Based 65
5.2.2 Direct
Direct statistical Thtimation of Mean Diameter Prediction
Statistical EStimation Functions
Functions 65
65
5.2.1 Defining Treatment
5.2.3 Treatment Hi story in Terms of StockinE
History Stockinf and Age 66
5.2.4 Static
Static Yield
Yield Functions
Functions Predicting Basal
Bas al Area or Volume 67
5.2.55 Limitations
5.2. Limitations of
of Static
Static Yield Models
Models 67
5.3 DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC METHODS
METHODS OF PREDICTING GROWTH AND YIELD 67
5.3.1
5.3 .1 The Basal
Basal Area Increment
Increment Function 69
5.3.1.1
5.3. 1.1 Basal area increment
Basal incr ement as
a s a function of
of dominant
dominant height 69
5.3.1.2
5·3. 1.2 other
Other methods increment
methods of predicting basal area increment 70
70
5.3.1.3
5. 3.1 .3 Practical
Practical problems in analysis
problems in analys i s of
of increment
increment data
data 70
70
5.3.2
5. 3.2 Co nst ructing aa Growth
Constructing ~!odel with Spacing Experiment
Gr01-rth Model Data. Marsh's
aperiment Data: Marsh ' s 71
71
ResponBe HypotheSis
Response Hypothesis
5.3.3 Convers i on of Growth
Conversion Growth Models
Model s to
to Yield
Yield Models
Models by
by Integration
Integration 73
5.3.3.1 Introduction 73
5.3.3.2
5·3.3.2 Ba.sic theory
Basic theory 73
5.3.3.3 Application ofof an
an integral
int egral yield
yield model
model to
to different
different thinning
thinning 74
74
treatments
5.3.3.4 Example of use of an integral yield model
model 75
5.3.3.5 compatible growth
Fitting compatible growth and
and yield
yield models
models to
to increment
increment data
data n
77
5.3.4 Us e of Growth
Use Growth Models by Simulation 78
5.3.4.1 Requirements for a simulation
simulation model
model 78
5.3.4.2 construction of
Method of construction of aa simulation
simulation model
model 79
79
5.3.f.3
5.3 •.' .3 Example of a simple
EXample simple simulation
simulation model
model 79
79
5.4
5.4 THINNING 86
86
5.4.1 The Thinning Ratio 86
5.4.2 Thinning Yields
Estimating Thinning Yields in
in Static
Static Models
Models 87
87
5.4.3
5.4.3 Estimating Thinning Yields in D,ynamic Models
Estimating Thinning Yields in Dynamic Models 88
88
5.5
5.5 MORTALITY 88
88
5.5.1 Establishment Mortality
Establishment 88
5.5.2
5.5.2 Density-Dependent Mortality
DensityDependent Mortality 89
5.5.3
5.5.3 Disease and Pest
Pest Mort ali ty
Mortality 90
90
 vi -
-- vi -

5.5.4 Windthrow and Fire Damage

Windthrow 91
91
,
5.6 STAND VOLUME PREDICTION 91
91

5.6.1 stand Volume E4uations

Stand Equations Based
Based on
on Dominant
Dominant Height
Height and
and Basal
Basal Area
Area 91
91
5.6.2 Using Tree
Using Tree Volume
Volume Equations
Equations to
to Predict
Predict Stand
Stand Volume
Volume 92
92
5.6.3
5.603 EBtimation of
Estimation of Volume
Volume to
to aa Top
Top Diameter
Diameter Limit
Limit 92
5.6.4 of Thinning
Volumes of Thinning 93
93
5.7 ADVANCED TECHNIQUES
ADVANCED TEX:HNIQUES OF GROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION 93
5.7.1 Size Class Models
Models 93
93
5.7.2 Tree
Tree Position Models
Position Models 94

6. ANALYSIS OF GROWTH AND

AND YIELD
YIELD DATA
DATA FOR MIXED
MIXED FOREST
FOREST 95
6.1 SITE CLASSIFICATION 96
6.2 STATIC YIELD FUNCTION
FUNCTION FOR MIXED FOREST 98
6.2.1 General
General Principles 98
98
6.2.2 Data Analysis
Analysis Procedures 99
99
6.2.3 Methods
Methods of Selecting a Yield Equation
Equation 99
6.2.4 \-lith Static
Problems with Static Yield
Yield Models
Models in
in Mixed
Mixed. Forest
Forest 100
6.2.5 Conclusions
Conclusions regarding Static Yield
Yield Models
lr10dels in
in Mixed
Mixed. Forest 100
6.3 TRANSITION MATRIX MODELS
TRANSITION MODELS 101
6.3.1 Definition of a Transition Matrix
Matrix Model
Model 101
101
6.3.2 Methods
Methods of Constructing Transition Matrices
Matrices 102
6.3.2.1 Single
Single tree
tree data 103
103
6.3.2.2
6.}.2.2 Size
Size class data 103
6.3.3 Refinements
Refinements to Transition Models 05
1105
6.3.4 Disadvantages
Disadvantages of
of Transition
Transition Models 105
6.4 DISTANC~INDEPEND=
DISTANCE-INDEPENDENT TREE MODELS BASED
BASED ON
ON DIFFERENCE
DIFFERENCE EZUATIONS
EQUATIONS 106
6.4.1
6.4.1 Defini tion
Definition 106
6.4.2 D,ynamic Variables
Allometric and Dynamic Variables 106
6.4.3 Representation of Competition 106
6.4.4 Data
Data Requirements
Requirements and Approaches to Analysis 107
6.4.5
6.4.5 Basic
Basic Model
Model Structure 107
6.4.6 Ingrowth,
Ingrowth, Mortality
Mortality and
and Harvesting
Harvesting 108
6.4.7
6.4.7 Conclusions
Conclusions regarding
regarding Tree Models 108

7.
7, VALIDATION
VALIDATION OF
OF GROWTH
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD MODELS
MODELS 109
7.1 THE
THE ROLE
ROLE OF
OF VALIDATION
VALIDATION 109
7.2 VALIDATION DATA 109
7.3
7.3 RESIWAL
RESIDUAL ERRORS 110

7.4 GRAPHICAL COMPARISONS 111

7.5 DEFINING
DEFINING THE
THE LIMITS
LIMITS OF
OF MODEL
MODEL UTILITY
UTILITY 112
 - vii
- vii -

8. THE OF THE
THE APPLICATION OF THE MODEL
MODEL TO
TO THE
THE REWIRED
REJ:l,UffiEDETTA
END USE
USE 113
8.
8.11 INI'ROOOCTION
INTRODUCTION 113
8,2
8.2 EVEN-AGED STANDS
EVEN-AGED STANDS 113
8.3 MIXED STANDS
NIXED STANDS 114
 FOREWORD
FOREWORD

There is probably little argument among forest

forest managers
managers that
that the
the ability
ability to
to estimate
estimate
the volume of trees and stands
stands and
and to
to predict
predict what
what the
the forest
forest will
will produce,
produce, onon different
different
sites, in response to particular
sites, particular types of
of silvicultural
silvicultural treatment,
treatment, isis central
central to
to all
all
rational planning processes connected
connected with
with forestry.
forestry. There is, is, however,
however, a considerable
considerable
diversity of opinions over what
what constitutes
constitutes "yield",
"yield", and how it
and how it may
may be
be estimated
estimated and
and
projected into
projected into the
the future.
future.

This manual
manual is an attempt
attempt to
to codify current
current practices
practices in
in the
the field
field of
of tree
tree and
and stand
stand
estimation and forest
volume estimation forest yield prediction in a way that
that is practicable
practicable and
and useful
useful to
to
is chanced
the person who is charged with the responsibility of producing volume estimations
estimations and
and
forecasts, but
yield forecasts, but perhaps
perhaps has
has not
not had
had the
the benefit
benefit of
of extensive
extensive experience
experience in
in this
this field.
field.

It must be aopreciated,
It a?preciated, however,
however, that
that this
this is
is aa field
field of
of human
human endeavour
endeavour that
that is
is
currently in
i n a state of rapid evolution,
evolution, especially with
with regard
regard to
to forests
forests growing
growing inin
environments. Consequently,
tropical environments. Consequently, all
all that is said
said in this manual must
must be
be regarded
regarded as
as
provisional
provisional and subject
subject to
to future
future refinement
refinement for
for particular
particular situations
situations that
that can
can arise,
arise, or
or
new techniques that can
can be
be developed,
developed, whilst
whilst other
other techniques
techniques may
may exist
exist which
which are
are not
not
referred to in
in this text
text and
and which
which may
may be
be superior
superior for
for particular
particular purposes.
purposes.

Thus it
it is not
not a manual
manual in the true sense;
sense; it
it is
is rather
rather aa set
set of
of guidelines
guidelines for
for the
the
choice of procedure combined with more precise instructions
instructions concerning calculation tech-
tech-
nique for some specified
specified cases.
cases.

The manual
manual is done with special
special reference to to the
the tropics
tropics and
and applies
applies to
to natural
natural as
as
well as manman made
made forests.
forests. Because of of the
the great
great difficulties
difficulties in
in assessing ~rowth and
assessing growth and
natural mixed and uneven aged
yield of natural aeed forests,
forests, the methods given
eiven to construct
construct growth
models, however,
models, however, mainly
mainly apply
apply to
to even
even aged
aeed forests,
forests. For mixed
mixed forests
forests no
no specific
specific
instructions are eiven
Eiven but rather some examples of possible waysways of dealing with
with the
the
problem ..
problem.

The manual consists of

of two
two volumes.
volumes.. The first
first volume describes techniques
techniques of
of
measurine
measuring trees and the assessment
assessment of volume of trees and stands,
stande, and the second volume
volume
deals with growth and yield prediction.
prediction. Descriptions of statistical and
and mathematical
mathematical
techniques,
techniques, selected statistical tables,
tables, blank copies of calculation and data recordine
recording
forms and an annotated biblioeraphy appendices.
bibliography are included in a series of appendices.

Volume II of the manual

manual has been written by Francis Cailliez,
Cailliez, Centre Technique
Forestier
Forestier Tropical
Tropical (GTFT),
(CTFT), Nogent-sur-lolarne, France, and
NogentsurMarne, France, and Volume
Volume II
II by
by Denis
Denis Alder,
Alder,
(cm, Oxford,
Commonwealth Forestry Institute (CFI), Oxford, Great Britain,
Britain, who also compiled the
appendices. The
The work ofof the
the two
two authors has been coordinated by Juran JBran Fries,
Fries, Swedish
University of kTicultural
Agricultural Sciences,
Sciences, Uppsala,
Uppsala, Sweden.
Sweden. The work
work was formulated and guided
guided
by Jean-Paul Lanly and
JeanPaul Lanly and Karn
Karn Deo
Ueo Singh
Singh of
of the
the Forest
Forest Resources
Resources Division
Division of FAD. Jean
of FAO. Jean
Clement (CTFT)
(CTFT) was associated at the initial
initial stage
stage of
of the study.
study.

The first
first draft of the manual was presented at at the meeting
meeting of
of the
the TUFRO
IUFRO Subject
Subject
Group S4,01
34.01 (Mensuration,
(Mensuration, Growth and Yield) held
held in
in Oxford
Oxford in
in September
September 1979, and
and was
was
discussed for one
one full
full day
day in
in detail.
detail. Among the participants there were tropical forest
forest
mensurationists especially invited by FAD to to make
make aa thorough
thorough and
and critical
critical review
review of
of the
the
cont~nts
contents of the manual. In addition,
addition, the manual was also sent
sent to a number
number of specialists
specialist s
for comments. Based on these remarks,
remarks, aa revised
revised version
version of
of the
the manual
manual was
was prepared
prepared by
by
the authors concerned.
ooncerned.

This manual,
manual, being the first of
of its
its kind
kind in
in the
the field
field of
of tropical
tropical forestry,
forestry, has
has con-
con-
siderable scope for further improvements
improvements and
and additions.
additions. Particularly
Particularly in
in the
the case
case of
of mixed
mixed
complementary studies
uneven aged stands further complementary studies are
are immediately needed. All
immediately needed. All suggestions
suggestions
in this respect will be very much appreciated.
appreciated.

14.A. Flores Rodas

M.A.
Assistant
Assistant Director-General
DirectorGeneral
For eatry Department
Forestry Department
 - 11 --
-

11.• INTRODUCTION
THE PROBLE1>l AND YIELD
PROBLEM OF GROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION
PRIIDICTION

11.1
•1 REASONS
REASONn FOR PREDICTIM:
PREDICTING GROWTll
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD
YIELD

reasons for
In order to understand the reasons for the diversity
diversity of
of methods that
that are
are being
being used
used
for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction,
prediction, it
it is
is useful
useful to
to examine
examine in
in more
more detail why growth
detail why growth and
and yield
yield
is necessary.
prediction is necessary.

11.1.1
• 1• 1 Producti on Planning
Production

Effective forest
forest management
management involves
involves the
the use
use of
of treatment
treatment regimes
regimes for
for control
control of
of the
the
in such
growing stock in such aa way
way that
that the
the increase
increase in
in the
the economic
economic and/or
and/or social
social value
value of
of the
the
gruwing stock is
growing is more
more rapid
rapid than
than the
the interest
interest accumulating
accumulating onon the
the cost
cost of
of treatment.
treatment.

At
At the same time,
time, all
all harvesting operations
operations will
will deplete
deplete the
the future
future growing
growing stock
stock to
to
or lesser
a greater or lesser degree.
degree . Too heavy a rate of
of harvesting
harvesting will ultimately
ultimately liquidate
liquidate the
the
forest low a rate may both deprive
forest resource; too low deprive a community
community of
of immediate
immediate resources
resources and
and
reduce
reduce potential
potential growth in the forest for the future.
future.

Clearly, treatment and

Clearly, rational decisions about treatment and harvesting
harvesting intensity
intensity and
and timing
timing can
can
only be
be made
made if the response of
of the forest
forest to these
these operations
operations can
can be
be quantified.
quantified. Growth
are the
and yield studies are the means
means to
to this
this end.
end.

1.1.2 Silvicultural Research and Planning

Although the primary objective of growth and

and yield
yield studies
studies is
is probably
probably thethe quantifi-
quantifi-
of forest production
cation of production in
in response
response to
to treatment
treatment and
and harvesting,
harvesting, there
there is
is aa strong
strong two
two ·
way relationship between growth and yield studies and more
more qualitative
qualitative forms
forms ofof silvicultural
silvicultural
research.
research. It is a two-way
It relationship because:
two-way relationship

(i) The silviculture of a a species may determine the type of model

type of model that
that can
can be
be used
used
to predict its
its growth;
growth; and may
may permit aa logical
logical basis
basis for
for grouping
grouping species
species inin
complex forests.
complex forests. Important
Important silvicultural features of a species will suggest
features and relationships
relationships that
that must
must be
be included
included in
in aa quantitative
quantitative model
model if
if it
it
effective.
is to be effective.

(it) A quantitative model can be used,

A used, if it contains
contains suitable relationships,
relationships, to
to test
test
~xperimental designs
silvicultural hypotheses and to suggest experimental designa and
and treatments
treatments that
that
to provide
are likely to provide useful
usefUl results.
results.

11.1.3
. 1.3 Ecological
Ecolo cal Research and Environmental Management
Man ement

Quantitative models for growth and yield prediotion

prediction may interact
interact with thethe needs
needs of
of
ecological environmental planning
ecological research and environmental planning in
in several ways.
several ways. For exaJilple:
example:

(i) A forest model may

A may indicate
indicate the
the amount
amount of
of light
light reaching
reaching the
the forest
forest floor
floor at
at
different stages
stages of
of the
the growth
growth cycle.
cycle.

(it) A forest model may readily by adapted to show

A show the biomass and rate of
of production
tree crop.
of the tree crop.
 - 2 -

(iii) The duration of the growth

growth cycle
cycle during
during which
which the forest
forest crop
crop is
is available
available to
to
large herbivores is important information
information for
for wildlife
wildlife management.

On the whole,
whole, ecological modelling
modelling uses rather
rather different
different techniques
techniques from
from those
those used
used
in
in growth and yield studies in in forestry.
forestry. This
This is because the latter has,has, of
of necessity, to
focus
focus upon a a very precise prediction
prediction ofof the
the geometric
geometric properties
properties ofof the
the crop;
crop; whilst
whilst in
in
ecology,
ecology, it is possible to deal with populations and levels of an ecosystem as a
with populations and levels of an ecosystem as a whole. whole.
Furthermore, ecological
ecological models
models tend
tend to
to concentra-te
concentrate on
on describing
describing or
or explaining
explaining thethe main
main
features of
qualitative features of an
an ecosystem;
ecosystem; aa high level of precision is rarely eithereither possible
or necessary. On On the
the other hand, forest models must be reasonably precise
hand, forest precise if
if they
they are
are to
to
justify their
justify their existence
existence and
and fulfil
fulfil their aim.
their aim.

The techniques of
of ecological
ecological modelling
modelling do
do provide
provide aa number
number of
of useful
useful points
points of
of contact
contact
with forest modelling:

(i) In mixed forest,

forest, species composition
composition can
can be
be modelled
modelled by
by ecological
ecological population
population
dynamics techniques.

(11) Where mortality, or loss

mortality, defect, or loss of
of growth
growth is
is attributable
attributable toto specific
specific diseases
diseases
or
or pests
pests of
of known
known etiology,
etiology, then this may be quantified as population dynamics
model
model in which habitat information
information is
is derived
derived from
from aa forest
forest growth
growth model
model and
and
tree growth is
is influenced by
by pest population
population levels.
levels.

In
In the
the future,
future, these points of
of contact
contact are
ar.e likely
likely to enlarge. In particular,
to enlarge. particular, the
increasing
increasing interest
interest in
in non-wood products from
nonwood products from forests
forests and
and the intractable problems
problems of
of complex
complex
mixed species and age forests
forests may be best accommodated by using modified forms
forms of ecological
ecological
cycle models.
energy flow/nutrient cycle models.

1 .2
1.2 THE ME'lHODOLOGY OF GROW'H!
METHODOLOGY GROWTH AND YIELD PREDICTION

The methodology of growth and yield prediction may be thought

thought of as
as containing four
four
main phases,
phases, which are discussed in the following paragrapha
paragraphs..

1.2.1
1.2.1 The Estimation of Growth
Growth and Yield

The estimation of
of growth
growth oror yield
yield involves
involves two
two kinds
kinds of
of problem.
problem. One is the problem
of definition of
of What
what constitutes
constitutes yield.
yield. This may be the timber
timber volume
volume of
of the
the crop,
crop, or
or it
it
may be the timber volume
volume of
of aa particular
particular group
group of
of species,
species,ororititmay
maybebesome
somenon-timber
nontimber
product, such
such as bark, foliage,
foliage, resins,
reSins, etc..
etc.. The most common
The common emphasis
emphasis in
in tropical
tropical countries
countries
is on predicting volume and
predicting the volume and assortment
assortment of
of all
all wood
wood products,
products, including
including timber,
timber, pulpwood,
pulpwood,
poles and
and fuelwood.
fuel wood. Because
Because the
the species
species composition
composition affects
affects the
the utility
utility of
of the
the product,
yield cannot
cannot be considered
considered apart from
from species
species composition
composition inin mixed
mixed stands.
stands.

of yield and of
The measurement of of growth
growth is
is relatively
relatively easy
easy once
once appropriate definitions
definitions
been made. The main difficulties are
have been are practical ones
ones associated
associated with access to the
forest,
forest, demarcation and measurement of plots and the maintenance of permanent plots over
long periods of time. These problems are dealt with in Sections 22 and 3.
3.
 - 33 -

1.2.2
1.2.2 The Construction
construction of
of aTdathematical
a Mathematical Model
Model and
and its
its Fjtting
Fitting to
to Growth
Growth and
and Yield
yield Data
Data

Once data is available, aa mathematical model

model can
can be
be constructed
constructed and
and fitted
fitted to
to this
this
data.
data. A
A mathematical model
model cansists
consista of
of sets
sets of
of equations
equations or
or graphs
graphs showing
showing the
the quantitative
quantitative
relationships
relationships between variables.
between the variables.

The process of fitting the

the model
model may
may be
be statistical,
statistical, using
using for
for example
example linear
linear regres-
regres-
sion,
sion, or it
it may be subjective, by drawing
drawing lines
lines through
through data
data plotted
plotted on
on grapbs.
graphs. Such hand-
hand:
subsequently expressed
drawn curves can be subsequently expressed as
as equations
equations if
if required.
required. Appendix A A of
of this
manual gives a number
number of
of methods
methods of
of curve
curve fitting.
fitting.

The types of curves drawn or

or equations
equations fitted
fitted may
may be
be based
based upon
upon some
SOOle natural
natural law
law of
of
growth, or
growth, may be empirical.
it may empirical. In the latter case, the function oror equation
equation is chosen
chosen
solely for
for its
its ability to represent aa particular
particular shape.
shape.

At
At the
the present time,
time, there is
is no genuine
genuine function
function for
for tree
tree growth
growth based
based upon
upon aa natural
natural
law, although there are some,
law, some, such as
as the Chapman-Richards function (described
ChapmanRichards function (described in Section 5)
in Section
which are partially
partially representative
representative of
of growth
growth processes.
processes.

1.2.3
1.2.3 Testing of the Model
Model for Validity

Once aa model
model has
has been constructed and fitted
fitted to
to data,
data, it
it must
must be
be tested
tested to
to determine
determine
its validity
its and precision.
validity and precision. Tbis
This is best done with aa second setset ofof data which was
data which was not
not used
used
to fit
fit any of the functions inin the
the model.
model. The model
model is
is used
used to
to predict
predict the
the behaviour
behaviour of
of the
the
stands which produced the
the test
test data
data and
and the
the results
results are
are compared
cOOlpared with
with the
the actual
actual Observations.
observations.
It
It is
is often
often necessary
necessary to
to repeat
repeat this
this process
process of
of validation
validation aa number
number of
of times,
times, with
with adjustments
adjustments
or corrections
corrections to the model as aa result
result of
of apparent
apparent anomolies
anOOlolies showing
shOwing up
up at
at each
each stage.
stage.

There are a
a number of reasons
number of reasons why models can
why models can perform
perform badly
badly when
when validated:
validated:

(i) The original data

data set
set may
may represent
represent aa different
different pattern
pattern of
of growth
growth behaviour
behaviour to
to
the test set.
set.

(ii) Inappropriate methods

methode of
of fitting
fitting the
the equations
equations may
may have
have been
been used
used in
in model
model
construction.
construct ion.

(iii) SOOle functions may be extrapolated during the

Some of the functions the test
test with
with the
the validation
validation
data into a region
region Where
where they
they are
are inaccurate.
inaccurate.

(iv) I
Iff the model involves a system of equations,
equations, it may becOOle
become unstable
unstable when
when treated
treated
as aa whole, even
even though
though each
each function
function separately
separately may
may fit
fit the
the data
data adequately.
adequately.

(v) There may be various kinds of

of human error
error during transcription
transcription or application
application
of
of the
the various or graphs.
various equations or graphs.

These points are spelt

spel t out
out at some
SOOle length in order
order to emphasise
emphasise the importance of
thoroughly testing
testing any
any model
model before
before applying
applyingitit to
toplanning
planningororrese,arch.
research. Section 6 deals
with model
model validation in detail.
detail.
 - 44-

1.2.4
1.2.4 The Application of the
the Model
Model to
to the
the Required
Required Ehd-Use
EhdUse

l'Bsentially, the
Etsentiallyt the growth
growth and
and yield
yield model
model may
may be
be applied
applied in
in one
one of
of three ways:
three ways:

(i) table or
As a simple table or graph
graph or
or set
set of
of tables
tables or
or graphs.
graphs. These
These can
can be used by
forest
forest planners directly or
or can be fed in in in
in tabular
tabular form
fonn to
to aa computer
computer for
for
updating a set of inventory data.
updating a set of inventory data.

(ii) As
As aa programme
programme for
for aa computer
computer or
or calculator
calculator which
ldrlch can
can produce
produce aa table
table or
or graph
graph
of growth and yield
growth and yield for
for aa particular
particular set
set of
of treatments.
treatments. ThisThis is
is appropriate
appropriate
sufficient inherent
has sufficient
when the model has inherent flexibility
flexibility so so that
that it
it is
is not
not possible
possible
possible predictions
to define all possible prediotions inin ane
one set
set ofof tables.
tables.

(iii) As a computer
computer programme
programme which fonns ae.sub-,model
which forms su1Hnodel within
within aa larger
larger computer
computerprog..
prog-
ramme for forest planning
planning and which
ldrlch will
will usually
usually incorporate
incorporate aa data
data base
base of
of
inventory information
infonnation and various economic
econanic or
or technical
technical constraints
constraints onon harvesting
harvesting
and traatment operati ons.
treatment operations.
 - 55 -

2. DESIGN OF fiELD
YIELD PREDICTION S'lUDIES
PREDICTION STUDIES

2.1 SPECIAL FEATUlill3

FEATURES OFOF RroRE5SION PARAMEl'ER ESTDIATION
REGRMSION PARAMETER ESTIMATION

Sampling or experimental designs

designs for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield studies
studies should
should be
be conditioned
conditioned
of
by the type of model to be fitted to the data obtained. This is usually sane
to be fitted to the data obtained. some sort of
regression model.

The following points should

should be borne in
in mind:

(0
(i) When
When the model
model to be
be fitted
fitted is
is known
known to
to be
be linear in
in fonn,
form, then
then sampling
sampling oror
should be concentrated
experimental treatments should concentrated at
at the
the two
two extreme
extreme ends
ends of
of the
the
line. For a surface relating three variables,
variables, the four extreme corners
four extreme corners should
be sampled.

(ii) ~lore usually,

More usually, the
the precise
precise shape
shape of
of the function
function to be fitted is unknown and
likely to be somewhat curved. In this case, a
somewhat curved. a good practice is to break
break the
the
of the predictor variable into 5
range of equal sections and sample each
5 eaual each section
section
same intensity
at the same intensity (subject
(subject to
to (iii)
(iii) below).
below).

(iii) Sampling intensity in any part ofof the range

rangs should be proportional
proportional to the
variance of
of the
the samples
samples around
around the
the model.
model. This is is particularly
particularly relevant
relevant when
when
predicting volume, as
predicting volume, as discussed
discussed in
in Part
Part II of
of this
this manual.
manual.

(iv)
(kv) Randan
Random or systematic sampling byby area,
area which is most
moot appropriate for forest
forest
inventory, is inefficient as a
inventory, a basis for constructing growth and yield models,
models,
as it involves too high a sampling intensity in the central part
part of the range
of
of response and
and -Loo
too Iowan
low an intensity
intensity at
at the of response.
the extremes of

(v) In experimental
experimental designs
designs for growth and
and yield prediction,
prediction, extreme
extreme treatments
treatments
should always be incorporated, especially
especially with
with respect
respect to
to stand
stand density.
density. This
will add greatly
greatly to
to the
the accuracy
accuracy of
of the
the model
model which
which can
can be
be fitted_
fitted to
to the
the resul-
tant data.
data.

2.2 CONSTRUCTION
SAMPLING DESIGN FOR MODEL CONSTRUCTION

Sampling is
is an
an alternative to experimentation in situations where the the variables
variables
entering the
the model
model cannct
cannot be controlled by the research worker.
worker. In gromth
growth and yield studies,
studies ,
this pl"oviso principally to site
proviso applies principally site variation. Forest type cancan be controlled by selec-
of the experimental
tion of experimental area, or
or by
by establishment
establishment of
of the
the desired
desired type
type of
of forest;
forest; stand
density can be controlled by by silvicultural
silvicultural and
and harvesting
harvesting operations.
operations.

generally more efficient

Experiments are generally efficient and hence
hence less
less expensive.for
expensive .for aa given
given accuracy
accuracy
and precision of
of prediction than sampling.
sampling. However, both
both types of
of data
data are necessary
necessary if site
i f site
variation is to be effectively
effectively included
included in
in the
the model.

of harvesting
The real effects of harvesting operations
operations are
are also
also very
very difficult
difficult to
to simulate
simulate experi-
experi-
mentally and
mentally and must
muet usually
ueually be
be determined
detennined by
by aa sampling
sampling programme,
programme, carried
carried out
out shortly
shortly after
after
harvesting.
 -- 66-
--

2.2.1
2°2'1 Temporary plots
2.21=ni=112tE
Temporary plots are
Temporary are primarily
primarily used
used for
for estimation
estimation of
of relationships
relationships which
which are
are not
not
time dependent.
dependent. However, this distinction
distinotion is blurred by the possibility of of determining
determining
tim~ependent relationships from
time-dependent relationships from annual ring information in situations
situations where these
these are
are
present.
present.

2.2.1.1
2.2.1.1 Forest inventory

inventory
Forest inventory designs are primarily determined to give an accurate estimate of
of
growing stock
forest growing stock in
in relation to
relation to land
land area.
area. However, much of the information gathered
may be useful
useful in
in growth
growth and yield
and yield studies.
studies.

of forest
The general subject of forest inventory design and analysis
analysis is
is covered in the FAO
of Forest
Manual of Forest Inventory.
Inventory.

It
It is generally
generally inefficient toto require
require the
the measurement
measuranent ofof parameters
parameters on
on all
all forest
forest
inventory plots
inventory plots that
that are
are only
only required
required for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction.
prediction. It is better
better to
to
of plots for more detailed measurement.
select a subset of

2.2. 1.2
2.2.1.2 Growth estimation
estimation from
from annual
annual rings
rings

Where clear annual rings

rings are present,
present, then studies
studies on temporary plots
plots can be
be used
used in
in
place of
of permanent
permanent sample
sample plots.
plots. In general
general,, the use of
of annual
annual rings
rings for
for increment
increment estima-
estima,-
tion is more difficult end
and more expensive
expensive than the
the use
use of
of permanent
pennanent sample plots.
plots . On the
other hand,
hand, results are
are Obtained
obtained much
much more
more quickly.
quickly.

2.2 . 1.3
2.2.1.3 smallag
Sa~pling for allcmetric
allometric relati,onships
relationships

is one
An allometric relationship is one between
between one
one measurement on
on a tree and another. For
another. For
example,
example, the relationship between crown diameter and bole diameter,
diameter, or
or between tctal height
betusen total
and bole
bole length.
length. Allometric relationships maymay be
be important
important in
in some models . The necessary
some models.
data is
is often not available in a suitable form
fonn from
frem a forest
forest inventory,
inventory, so
80 it beCCXi1es
bocones
desirable to carry
carry out
out aa sampling
sampling programme
programme to
to determine
detennine the
the relationship.
relationship.

The basic sampling unit

unit is usually the single
Single tree, although
although for convenience
convenience plots
may be laid
laid out
out and
and all
all trees
trees on
on the
the plot measured. The number of samples will depend upon
plot measured.
the relationship being
being studied.
studied. A good general procedure is to analyse the data as sampling
is
is being
being carried out
out and to terminate
tenninate sampling
sampling once
once the
the required
required degree
degree of
of accuracy
accuracy has
has been
been
obtained.
Obtained.

A tree volume
A volume tariff
tariff is
is aa particular
particular example
example of
of an
an allometric
allometric relationship.
relationship.

2.2.1.4 Sampling t
2. 2.1 4Sa_a_2_n to oefinimet
define parameters
ers of of harvesting operations
harvesting_afrations

Most
M.ost yield
yield prediction
prediction models
models accept
accept as
as inputs
inputs the
the fonnal
formal specifications
specifications for
for inter-
inter-
mediate or
or cyclic
cyclic harvesting
harvesting operations.
operations. It It is
is possible to assume that the operation will
out as specified,
be carried out specified, or it isis possible to carry out out aa sampling programme
programme to
to examine
examine
the relationship between
between the
the theoretical
theoretical specifications
specifications and and the
the actual
actual results.
results.
 - 7-

will require
Additionally, most models will require information
information about
about the
the harvesting
harvesting treatment
treatment
covered by
that are not covered by the
the specifications.
specifications. For example, it isis usually necessary
necessary to know
know
diameter distribution
the diameter distrib.ution of
of removed
removed stems
stems or
or the
the relationship
relationship between
between the
the number
number of
of stems
stems
removed and the basal
basal area
area removed.
removed.

carried out
Sampling carried out shortly
shortly after
after harvesting
harvesting will
will provide
provide information
information an
on these
these
Alternatively, concealed
matters. Alternatively, concealed semi-permanent plots can
semipermanent plots can be
be set
set up which are
are measured
measured
before and
and after
after the
the harvesting
harvesting operation
operation to
to give
give an
an accurate
accurate determination
determination of
of trees
trees
removed.
removed.

A general feature of
A of these
these studies
studies is
is the
the need
need to
to use
use larger
larger sized
sized plots
plots than
than other
other
of study.
types of study. Typical figures would
would be:

Uniform forest 0.1 0.5

0. 5 ha

14ixed tropical
Mixed tropical forest
forest 55 10 ha

This is because real harvesting operations

operations tend to
to have
have very
very heterogeneous
heterogeneous effects
effects associated
associated
extraction tracks and
with extraction and loading
loading areas.
areas.

2.2.1.5
2.201.5 survey2
Regeneration surveys

In mixed tropical forests

forests or
or any
any other
other type
type ofof mixed
mixed age
age forest,
forest, or
or uniform
uniform forests
forests
being regenerated by
by direct
direct seeding,
seeding, estimates
estimates of
of regeneration
regeneration may
may be
be an
an important
important part
part of
of
aa yield prediction model.

surveys need
Plots for regeneration surveys need to
to be
be small.
small. They may be subplots within conven-conven-
tional forest inventory
inventory plots
plots oror they
they may
may be
be based
based an
on aa spearate
spearate sampling
sampling scheme
scheme carried
carried out
out
3-5 years after logging.
logging. Typically, thethe plots
plots are
are subdivided
subdivided into
into quadrats;
quadrats; on on each quadrat,
the presence or
or absence
absence of
of species
species is
is recorded.
recorded. Actual counts of of trees above a certain
certain
or height
diameter or height may also be made,
made, but
but do not
not ueually
usually add greatly
greatly to
to the
the usefulness
usefulness of
of the
the
information. Typical
Typical plot
plot sizes
sizes are 0.01
0.01 ha (10
(10 xx 10 m)
m) or 0.04
0.04 ha (20 xx 20
ha (20 20 m),
m), subdivided
subdivided
case into
in each case into 11 m2 or
or 44 m2
m2 quadrats.
quadrats.

2.2.2
2.2.2 Sample Plots
Permanent Sample Plots

foresters would consider

Most foresters consider the data obtained
obtained from permanent sample plots (PSPs)
(PSPs)
to
Lo be
be the most important contributor
contributor to
to aa growth
growth and
and yield
yield model.
model. Although this remains
true for many situations,
Situations, experiments must
must be considered asas a necessary adjunct
adjunct to
to introduce
introduce
extremes of treatment that are not found
found in
in the forest;
forest; whilst measurements on
on annual
annual rings
rings
provide an alternative
alternative to
to PSP
PSP measurements.
measurements.

2.2.2.1
2.2.2.1 Number of PSPs required

It is not possible to define

define the
the number
number ofof PSPs
PSPs required
required from
from purely
purely statistical
statistical
criteria. The precision ofof aa model
model fitted
fitted to
to PSP
PSP data
data will
will depend
depend upon
upon the
the location
location of
of plots,
plots,
and the duration of remeasurement as we1l
well as on the covariances of the various
as an various predictor
and coefficients
variables and coefficients in
in the
the fitted
fitted model,
model.

approximately 100
Experience suggests however that approximately 100 plots covering
covering the range of site
variation and stand
stand history may be sufficient
sufficient in aa given forest
forest type or plantation species,
species,
evidence for distinctively
unless there is evidence distinctively different growth
growth patterns
patterns on
on part of
of the geographic
range.
 -- 8
8 --

2.2.2.2
2.2.2.2 of PSPs
Location of

Pennanent sample
Permanent sarnple plots
plots should
should be
be placed
placed with
with equal
equal frequency
frequency in:
in:

- poor sites
si tea
average sit es
sites
good sites

and
low density stands
- of average density
stands of
high density
density stands
stands
and
young
yaang or recently
recently logged
logged stands
stands
mid-rotation or
or midway through felling cycle
at age or
at rotation age or at
at the end
end of
of the
the felling
felling cycle.
cycle.

will probably
This will probably result
result in
in an
an area
area distribution
distribution for
for plots
plots which
which is
is quite
quite uneven,
uneven,
and appear to be proportionately
proportionately deficient
deficient in
in the
the average
average stands.
stands. However,
However, this
this is
is the
the most
most
of sampling
efficient method of sampling to
to estimate
estimate regression
regression parameters,
parameters, as discussed in section
as discussedin section 2.1.
2.1.

The type of
of stratification
stratification implied
implied above
above may
may not
not be
be possible,
possible, due
due to
to aa lack
lack of
of know-
know-
ledge of forest
forest growing conditions,
conditions, inin which case plots
plots may bebe laid
laid down
down systematically
systematically or or
using aa geographical
using geographical stratification
stratification toto give
give equal
equal area
area coverage.
coverage. In In this case, many more
plots will be required
required than i f the
than if the more
more effective
effective type
type of
of stratification
stratification described
described above
above is
is
used.

2.2.2.3 Size of PSPs

general, the size

In general, size of
of permanent
pennanent sample
sample plots
plots is
is governed
governed by
by forest
forest type
type and
and the
the
heterogeneity of
of stocking
stocking and
and species
species distribution.
distribution.

In mixed tropical forest,

forest, aa size
size of
of 11 ha
ha is
is usually
usually appropriate.
appropriate. This may conveniently
be divided into
into 100 10 xx 10
100 10 10 mm quadrats.
quadrats.

In unifonn forest, sizes

uniform forest, sizes around
around 0.05
0.05 ha are commonly
ha are commonly used.
used.

These figures may

may be
be varied
varied aa great
great deal
deal for
for different
different circumstances.
circumstances. For
For experi-
experi-
ments,
ments, larger sized plots are more nonnal.
normal. The table below
below gives
gives some
some details.
details.

PERMANENT
PERMANEVT PLOT SIZES

Forest type Mixed Unifonn

Uniform

Sarnple
Sample plots 1-2 ha 0.04-0.08 ha
Experiments
Experiments (excluding surrounds)
surrounds) 1-5 ha
1-5 0.01>-0.12 ha
0.08-0.12
Studies
Studies of
of real* harvesting operations
operations ha
5-10 ha 0.1
0.1 -- 0.5 ha

** As
As opposed to simulated
simulated operations,
operations, which
which come
corne under
under the
the category
category of
of experiments.
experiments .

These figures should

should not
not be
be treated
treated too
too rigidly.
rigidly.
 - 99 -

2.2.2.4 Shape of PSPs

Generally speaking, PSPs may

may be
be either
either rectangular
rectangular or
or circular.
circular. In inventory,
inventory, other
shapes are used, e.g. crosses and clusters
used, e.g. clusters of
of circular
circular pl ots, which
plots, which have
have specific
specific advantages
advantages
for
for area sampling but
but are not particularly
particularly useful for
for PSFS.
PSRI.

Circular plots are faster to lay

lay out
cut than rectangular
rectangular plots for
for sizes
sizes below
below 0.1
0.1 ha
ha
stands, or
in open stands, or 0.05 ha in dense
ha in dense stands.
stands. Their use is also recommended in plantations
as not related
as effective area is nct related to
to the
the arrangement
arrangement of
of planting
planting rows.
rowe,

Rectangular plots are more appropriate for

for plot sizes
sizes greater
greater than
than 0.1
0.1 ha.
ha.

The ratio of length to breadth

breadth for
for rectangular
rectangular plots
plots can
can be altered
altered as required. On
as required.
steep topography,
topography, aa high ratio, up to 5
ratio, up 5 to 1,
1, is
is better,
better, with the
the length running
running up
up and
and down
down
slopes. On level ground, a square plot has aa smaller
the slopes. smaller perimeter
perimeter and
and will
will therefore
therefore be
be
easier to demarcate and measure.

2.2.2.5 Frequency and

Frequency and timing
timing of
of remeasurements
remeasurements

with which
The frequency with which PSPs
PSPs should
should be
be remeasured
remeasured depends
depends upon
upon the
the growth
growth rate
rate of
of
the trees. It
It is
is also useful to remeasure a new
new plot after
after aa shorter than normal interval
shorter than interval
order to benefit as
in order as rapidly
rapidly as
as possible
possibl e from
from the
the growth
growth data
data the
the plot
plot provides.
provides.

It should be noted that

that in
in general,
general, the
the longer
longer the
the interval
interval between
between remeasurements,
remeasurements,
the more accurately
accurately the
the tree
tree increments
increments can
can be
be determined.
determined.

organization responsible
In an organization responsible for
for aa large
large number
number of
of PSPs1 it is
PSPs, it is aa good
good idea
idea to
to
alternate remeasurements so that perhaps only one third of the plots
plots are measured
measured in
in any
any
one year.

Rerneasurement can be
Remeasurement intervals can be given
given approximately
approximately as
as follows:
follows:

Forest type Measurement interval (yrs)

interval (yrs)

Young plantations in
in
tropics 1

Older plantations or
other
ether uniform
uniform forest
forest
in tropics 2-4

Mixed tropical forest 3-5

Temperate uniform
forest 3-5
3-5

The timing of remeasurements

remeasurements should
should obviously
obviously take
take into
into account
account seasonal
seasonal effects.
effects.
If there is
If is a definite growing
growing season,
season, measurement
measurement should
should bebe carried
carried out
out after
after the growing
season is finished,
finished, as timing
timing is
is less criticial. In any case,
less criticial. should always
case, a given plot should
be measured
be measured in
in the same
same month
month When
when annual
annual measurements
measurements are
are made,
made, to
to allow
allow exact
exact one
one year
comparisons and
comparisons and increment
increment estimation.
estimation. With longer remeasurement
remeasurement intervals and less seasonal
climates,
climates, timing becomes less
less critical.
critical.
 - 10
- 10 --

In some cases,
cases, timing
timing of
of measurements
measurements may
may be
be restricted
restricted by a c cess considerations
by access considerations or
or
seasonal availability
seasonal availability of
of labour.
labour.

2.2.2.6
2.2.2.6 Eamang
Sampling replacement
with partial replacement

Strictly speaking,
Strictly speaking, sampling
sampling with
with partial
partial replacement
replacement is
is an
an inventory
inventory design
design where
where
semi-pennanent plots
semi-permanent plots are
are used
used to
to supplement
supplement information
infonnation from
from temporary
temporary plots.
plots. However,
However, the
the
same
sane general concept can be applied to pennanent sample plots.
concept can be applied to permanent sample plots.

times aa PSP
The more times PSP is
is measured,
measured, the
the less
less information
information it
it provides
provides compared
compared with
with the
the
measurement , unless
previous measurement, it is
unless it is growing
growing into
into an
an age-site-stand
ag&-sit&-stand density
density stratum
stratum that
that has
has
been well
not been well sampled.
sampled.

For uniform age forests,

forests, two
two basic
basic sampling
sampling strategies
strategies arise
arise with
with PSPs:
PSPs:

(i) Plots are established

established through
through all
all age
age classes.
classes. In this case, sampling
sampling is more
efficient
efficient if aa proportion of plots is replaced after
after the
the third
third or
or fourth
fourth
remeasurements.
remeasurements.

(ii) Plots are established

established in
in young
young plantations
plantations anly
only (because
(because no
no older
older age
age classes
classes
exist).
exist). In this case,
case, aa proportion of
of the plots, say 30%, must be retained
say 30%, must be retained
tthroughout
hroughOut the
the rotation.
rotation. The remaining 70%
70% are
are replaced
replaced after
after 33 or
or 44
measurements .
measurements.

In mixed
In mixed forest, situation exists,
forest, an analogous situation exists, except
except that
that instead
instead of
of age,
age, ane
one is
is
concerned with the number
number of
of years since
since the
the last
last harvesting
harvesting aperation.
operation.

2.
2.33 EXPERDIENTAL
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
DESINE

Experiments
EXperiments are the most efficient
efficient and useful Bource of data for constructing models
useful source models
of
of growth
growth and yield. However,
and yield. However, the usefulness of many experiments
experiments that
that have
have been
been laid
laid down
down
in forestry research is limited by a a failure to clearly envisage the mathematical
mathematical model
model that
that
the experiment is
is designed
designed. to
to test
test or
or parameterize.
parameterize.

Growth and yield studies are not

net primarily concerned with determining significant
significant
differences between
between treatments,
treatments, but
but with
with constructing
constructing response
response surfaces.
surfaces. It is also a common
It is cammon
error
error to
to assume
assume that
that long term
term forestry experiments
experiments can
can provide useful
useful solutions
solutions to problems
that origins in current and highly fluid economic
that have their origins conditions. It
economic conditions. It almost always
happens that by the time the experiment starts to provide useful data,
data, economic conditions
conditions
have changed so that the results are irrelevant.
irrelevant.

The solution to this problem is always to set up the experiments with the intention
of
of defining
defining general
general prinCiples,
principles, via a mathematical
mathematical model,
model, rather
rather than
than to
to select
select the
the 'best'
'best'
of
of aa set of treatments.
set of treatments.

Similarly,
Similarly, the parameters to be
be measured
measured should
should never
never be
be defined
defined in
in economic
economic terms,
terms,
but always in ecological
ecological or
or silvicultural terms.
tenns.

Short
Short tem
term experinl'ents
experiments that
that are
are defined in terms econanic parameters
terms of economic are necessary
parameters are necessary
for
for the costing of silvicultural treatments and determination
detennination of utilizable yields in rela.-
rela-
harvesting methods, but these matters are
tion to specific harvesting are outside
outside the scope
scope of
of this present
manual
manual..
 - 11 -

The principal experimental

experimental designs
designs that
that are
are relevant
relevant toto growth
growth and
and yield
yield research
researoh
subdivided into
can be subdivided into randomized
randomized or
or systematic
systematic designs.
designs. The former can be be subject
subject to
to con-
analysis of
ventional analysis of variance, whilst the latter
latter are usually satisfactory when when regression
regression
prinCipal method
is the principal method of
of analysis
analysis and
and may
may be
be more
more economical
economical than
than randomized
randomized designs
designs to
to
out an
set out on the
the ground.
ground. Randomized designs can however also be analysed by by regression
regression and
and
are therefore
are therefore probably
probably to
to be
be preferred
preferred in
in all
all cases
cases except
except plantation
plantation spacing
spacing experiments.
expsriments.

2.3.1
2.3.1 Randomized Designs

A
A principal feature ofof randomized
randomized designs
designs is
is the
the allocation
allocation of of treatments
treatments to
to the
the
wi thin an
plots within an experiment
experiment by
by some
some random
random process,
process, usually
usually aa table
table of
of random
randan numbers.
numbers.

Another feature of
of randomized
randomized designs
designs is
is the
the principle
principle of
of replication.
replication. Any treatment
be applied
must be applied at
at least
least twice,
twice, on
on two
tliO different
different plots.
plots.

These two features

features are the common
common characteristics
characteristics of
of aa wide
wide diversity
diversity ofof experimental
experimental
designs, including fully
designs, including fully randomized
randomized experiments,
experiments, lattices,
lattices, latin
latin squares,
squareB, incomplete
incomplete blocks,
blocks,
Bplit plots,
split etc •• Standard textbookB,
plots, etc.. textbooks, Buch
such aB
as Snedecor (see
(Bee bibliography)
bibliography) cover
cover the
the analysis
analysis
and appropriate
and appropriate usage
usage of
of such
such designs.
deBigns. Dawkins, in
in his well
well known book
book of
of Statforms,
Statforms, gives
gives
calculation pro formes
fonnas for
for many
many such
such designs.
designs.

In growth and yield studies.

studies, probably only two
two randomized
randomized designs
designs are
are widely
widely appr<>-
appro-
priate. randomized block
These are the randomized block and
and the
the factorial
factorial experiment.
experiment.

2.3.1.1
2.3.1.1 block experiments
Randomized block experiments

The structure of
of a typical complete
complete randomized
randomized block
block experiment
experiment is
is illustrated
illustrated below.
below.

t2 b2 It4\t31t11t21
t4 t3 tlIt21
t1
It1 t4
b1 t3
b3 It2it4Itl t3
It21t41t11t31

The treatments, ><hich there

treatments, of which there may
may be
be any
any number
numbp.r (provided
(provided there
there are
are at
at least
least two),
two),
designated by
are designated by t1,
t1, t2,
t2, etc..
etc •• These
These are
aregrouped
groupedinto
intoblocks,
blocks,labelled
labelledb1,
b1,1)2,
b2, etc..
etc.. There
may any number
may be any number of
of blocks.
blocks. Each block
block contains
contains ane
one replicate
replicate ofof each
each treatment.
treatment.

aut so that the variations in site or forest

The blocks are laid out forest condition are
are small
small
within the blocks, compared to the variation between blocks.
blocks.

The plots wi thin a

within a block do not necessarily have to be physically adjacent,
adjacent, as
as shown
above,
above, but usually the plots are relatively
relatively close compared with the distance between blocks .
blocks.

The treatments are assignelto

assigned to each
each plot withina
within a block using a table of random numbers.
numbers.

An incomplete randomized block arises When

ßn when ane
ane or
or more treatments are not
not replicated
one or
in one or more
more blocks. This may be a deliberate feature of of design,
design, especially where
Where there
there
are large
large numbers
numbere of
of treatments,
treatments, or
or it
it may
may be
be the
the result
result of
of loss
loss of ane
one or more
more plots through
accidents. The analysis of variance of of an incomplete
incomplete randomized
randanized block experiment is somewhat
more complex than for a complete one,one, but as
as far
far as
as regression
regression studies
.tudies are concerned,
concerned, it does
great deal
not make a great deal ofof difference.
difference.
 -- 12
12 --

In growth
growth and yield
yield experimentation,
experimentation, randomized
randomized block
block experiments
experiments are
are suitable
suitable for
for
where the
situations where the treatments
treatments do
do not
not form
form aa clearly
clearly defined
defined dimensional
dimensional continuum.
continuum. For
example, f the
example, iif the treatments
treatments comprise
comprise initial
initial spacing
spacing for aa plantation crop,
crop, then
then this
this can
can be
be
varied continuously
continuously and and factorial
factorial or
or clinal
clinal design
design is
is more
more appropriate.
appropriate. But if the treat-
ments are specifications for rainforest
rainforest harvesting framed
framed in
in terms
terms of
of species
species groups
groups and
and
different cutting
cutting limits
limits for
for different
different groups,
groups, then
then there
there is
is no
no clear
clear continuum
continuum between
between
treatments and aa factorial
factorial or
or clinal
clinal design
design cannot
cannot be
be used.
used. A A randomized block
block design isis
therefore most appropriate.
appropriate.

2.3.1.2 experiments
Factorial experiments

experiments are
Factorial experiments intended for situations
situations where the treatment
treatment consists
consist s of
of
two or more interacting
interacting factors.
factors. example, in a plantation
For example, plantation thinning
thinning experiment,
experiment, one
one
designate the
might designate the age
age of
of thinning
thinning and
and the
the intensity
intensity of
of thinning
thinning as
as two
two separate
separate factors.
factors.

Each level
Each level of
of aa factor
factor is
is combined
combined with
with each
each level
level of
of every
every other
other factor.
factor . Thus if
there are 3 levels
levels of
of one
one factor
factor and
and two
two levels
levels of
of aa second
second factor,
factor, there
there will
will be
be aa total
total
treatments.
of six treatments.

treatments should
All the treatments should be
be replicated
replicated at
at least
least twice.
twice. It
It is
is efficient
efficient to
to group
group
replicates into
the replicates into blocks,
blocks, as this
this allows the variation
variation betweenblocks
between blocks to
to be
be accounted
accounted for.
for.

Qualitative treatments such as for example

example pruning or no pruning,
pruning, can
can bbe
e included
included in
in
aa factorial as aa treatment
factorial experiment as treatment with
with two
two levels
levels -- present
present or
or absent.
absent.

Factorial experiments
experiments are well suited to studies in uniform forest
forest involving timing
timing
intensity of
and intensity of thinning, initial spacing,
spacing, pruning and the use of fertilizers
fertilizers and
and weed
weed
control.
control. They are more difficult
difficult to apply meaningfully in
in mixed
mixed forest
forest because
because of
of the
the
complex nature of
of the treatment definition and
and effects.
effects.

2.3.2 Designs
Systematic Designs

treatment locations are not

Systematic designs are those in which treatment not randomized,
randomized, but
but
laid out
are laid out in
in some
some systematic
systematic pattern
pattern to
to economize
economize an
on the
the size
size and
and cost
cost of
of the
the experiment.
experiment.
Systematic
Systematic experiments cannot
cannot be
be analysed by analysis
analysis of variance,
variance, but
but they areare very
very
efficient as a means of
of providing
providing data
data for
for regression
regression parameter
parameter estimation.
estimation.

The main application of

of systematic designs is towards
to'Wards spacing experiments
experiments in uniform
forest. In any situation where there is the slightest
forest. s l ightest doubt as to the likely outcome of the
the
experiment, e.g. fertilizer experiments,
experiment, e.g. experiments, aa randomized
randanized design
design should
should be
be used.
used.

For spacing experiments,

experimente, two basic design approaches are possible.
possible.

2.3 . 2.1
2.3.2.1 experiments
Single tree experiments

In the single tree systematic spacing

spacing design, the spacing
spacing varies between each
each tree in
a continuous
continuous fashion.
fashion. One well-known example is the Nelder
NeIder fan,
fan, in which trees are planted
out from
along radii going out fran a central point, with
with the distance
distance between
between trees along radii
radii
increasing a the same rate as the distance between radii. The general appearance is
illustrated below.
illustrated below.
 - 13 -

•
,,
I

,l
I "
, ,~
" ,
, ,,
," ,,
.-
,°
/
0 e-

1
---.--.----. e -o

NeIder fans are a little

Nelder fans little difficult
difficult to plan
plan and
and execute
execute on on the
the ground
graund and
and some
some equally
equally
effective rectangular designs are possible.
possible. The diagram
diagram below
below indicates
indicates one
one in
in which
which spacing
spacing
between trees
trees is
is increased
increased by
by half
half aa metre
metrefor
foreach
eachtreet,
tree, in
in both
both the
the vertical
vertical and
and horizontal
horizontal
direction.
direction. This plan has
has the advantage of testing all all combinations
combinations of of square
square and
and rectangular
rectangular
spacing and replicating
replicating each
each single
single combination
combination twice.
twice. By using a smaller
smaller increment
increment than t
than -1-
metre,
metre, a larger experiment
experimentisis obtained,
Obtainedt which
which is
is less
less likely
likely toto be
be affected
affected by
by the
the loss ofof
single trees.
trees.

, ... ,. ____ • ______ e ______ e __ - - - __ I

.11
' --1--
I - QII I I ~ e
:
'I
~ - _,_ - - - -,_ - - - - -
' ,
~_ - - - - - e ,
-I ________ •
,
e:
I i o ,
o
o

o
i
I
I'
i o II •I
,I I I o
• •
e
,_ --e
--1- 1 __ - - - e-
__ _ _lee e - __ - - - 1 - - - ____ .0
_I
, o o

" ,
;
I
o o

,
o
I o I I

;
o

I I I
o

___ ..>____-e
' I
-- ,.
a _____ ' , ' -- ---0--------·
I '

,
o
o
"O'''
o
'
i

,
o
o o

,
o

I I
I I
I I
I I
I I t I
..-.41,-...-;--.....0;..._
; ___ ~ __ - . ; ______ e_ - - ____
__I . ____ - --~
I!
: ' ,
I
:
,
,
,
,
,
'
I I I

,I ,
___ I
• ___ .1. ____ II ___ - I
- -0- - - - - - - •'

Single tree spacing experiments provide very useful data on the response of diameter
dimmeter
and crown diameter to spacing for uniform foresta,
forests, but the data is
is not easily
eaSily compatible
compatible
with that from conventional plots unless aa single
single tree modelling
modelling strategy has been adopted.
adopted.
experiments are also very
Single tree experiments very sensitive to the loss
loss of
of trees, which upset their
arrangement and
and design.
design.

2.3.2.2 Clinal
Curial plots

Clinal plots are those in which the treatments are arranged so

so that successive
successive levels
levels
are adjacent. The main advantage of
of clinal
clinal plots is
is the
the possibility
possibility of
of eliminating
eliminating the
the plot
surround except on the autside
outside of
of the experiment.
experiment. This isis illustrated
illustrat ed by
by the
the diagram
diagram below.
below.
 - 14
14 -

<.' _..
...-,-,...;015....;:e.h.,k,,,-... ,....:-
- .'"
' -4. - - ---.....4,,,,,.;.A:t.A.,!..w,,;.
;

!t3
, 1
1

t5 t1
1
1

t5 t4 1
t2 i
ti
1
i
I
I

' -. '. ... ,.

..,:.-,1-Z,..ie:ftg*.0,,Z,V.,i,t,i.'!. ftt'I',1,1rit*I:5:Ff2g;,;.?"- .4.)..,:.. ..ii
i!'¡61,tV'T.:;:t".f..;;:izt.r.iv.,:te....:,:l ,, ',W '''.
.........'
-
,i:.;..,,.
' i . s' - ..0.7!Ms-5.4..f.:¡;-:
'. 0.`.6.4
1 1

t4
1

t3
1

ti t2 1 t3 1 1
t5
t5
1 1
1

AVAt., \
v'

plots
Treatment plots
4-40m --T.-420m
Guard rows
Guard rows

For spacing
For experiment~, it is usually desirable to have from
spacing experiments, from 55 to 8 treatments.
treatments. The
closest spacing
spacing should
should be
be either
either 22 xx 22 mmor 2t x 22t m, depending
or 2-i depending on on whether
whether a narrow crowned
species (e.g.
(e.g. Eucalypt or
or Pine)
Pine) or
or wide
wide crowned
crowned species
species (e.g.
(e.g. Gmelina
Gmelina arborea)
arborea) is
is involved.
involved .
The widest spacing should be 77 x 77 m m or 8 8 xx 8 m.
m. ItIt is very important to always incorporate
these two extremes,
extremes, as
as discussed in section
discussed in section 2.1.
2.1 .

Data from clinal plots can

can be
be combined
combined with
with other
other plot
plot data
data without
without difficulty.
difficulty. The
plots themselves are less sensitive to the loss
loss of individual trees than
than single tree
experiments.

2. 4
2.4 ElCAI~PLES OF GROimI
EXAMPLES GROWTH AND YIELD EXPERIMENTS
EXPERDIENTS

There are literally an infinite variety of ways in which experiments

experiments may be designed
executed to
and executed to provide
provide data
data for
for growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction.
prediction. The main purpose of this
section is
is to present
present synthesized examples
examples of
of the most
most common types
types of
of experiment,
experiment, with
of their usefulness and the special problems of
some discussion of of execution
execution and analysis.
analysis.
There is here a wide divergence inin technique between methods for
for uniform forests
forests of
of a single
Single
mixed forests.
age and mixed forests.

2.4.1
2.4.1 Uniform Forests

Growth and
Growth and yield
yield studies
studies in
in uniform
uniform forest
forest have
have tended
tended to
to concentrate
concentrate on
on the
the effects
effects
of
of stand denSity, fertilization and
density, fertilization and pruning.
pruning. Fertilizer and pruning
pruning experiments
experiments will not
not
be considered directly in
in this manual as
as they
they are rarely
rarely relevant
relevant to
to the
the direct
direct problem ef
of
yield prediction.
prediction. Stand
Stand density
density is
is of
of primary
primary importance,
importance, as
as it
it is
is the
the major
major variable
variable which
which
the forester is able to control during
during the rotation of
of aa uniform
unifonn forest.
forest. There are four
basic ways in which the interaction
interaction between stand
stand density
density and
and growth
growth may
may be
:be studied
studied
exp erim ent ally.
experimentally.

2.4.1.1
2.4.1.1 Spacing experiments
experiments

may be laid
Spacing experiments may laid out
out either
either as
as single
single tree
tree experiments
experiments or
or as
as clinal
clinal
plots.
plots. The latter is probably a more useful type of experiment.
latter is probably a more useful type of experiment. Between 5
5 and 8
8 different
spacings may
may be
be used.
used. It
It is
is better
better to thin the plots to their final
final spacing in the second
 - 15
15 -

or third year of
of growth than to plant directly
directly at
at the final
final spacing;
spacing; the latter approach
the latter is
approach is
too sensitive
sensitive to
to poor
poor survival
survival following
following planting.
planting. When the thinning to the final
final spacing
is
is carried
carried out,
out, it
it should
should be
be aa non-selective thinning to achieve
nonselective thinning achieve the
the desired
desired spacing,
spacing, not
not aa
low or crown thinning.

A
A spacing experiment should be continued
spacing experiment continued over
over the whole
whole of
of aa normal
normal rotation
rotation of
of the
the
crop. Once established, it should
should not be
be thinned.
thinned.

It
It is
is very easy to analyse
analyse spacing experiment
experiment data
data to
to provide
provide aa flexible
flexible growth
growth model
model
for the species in
in question. The details are
are discussed
discussed in
in section
section 55 of
of this manual.
manual.

2.4.1.2 Constant basal area thinning

thinning experiments
experiments

In aa constant
constant basal area thinning experiment,
experiment, plots are
are laid
laid out
out systematically
systematically oror
randanly
randomly and allowed to grow
grow until each
each plot
plot reaches
reaches its
its designated
designated basal
basal area.
area. ItIt is
is then
every one
thinned every one or
or two years
years to maintain the basal
basal area at
at the
the designated
designated level
level for
for each
each
plot.

Careful
Careful records
records must
must be
be kept
kept of
of the
the number
number of
of trees
trees removed
removed and
and the
the basal
basal area
area removed
removed
if this type of
of experiment
experiment is
is to
to be
be very
very useful.
useful.

Analysis
Analyuis is more difficult
difficult than for aa spacing experiment
experiment and
and involves
involves the
the fitti ng of
fitting of
predicting basal area increment
a model predicting
a increment as a function of
of basal area and other variables,
variables, for
example age
age and
and stocking.
stocking.

strategy for constructing

As a strategy CQlstructing a dynamic
dynami c thinning experiment,
experiment, this
this approach has
has the
the
of simplicity
advantage of simplicity of
of design,
design, although the execution may notnot be so easy,
easy, BS
as careful
careful and
continuous record
record keeping
keeping is
is required if the
required if the results
results are
are to
to be
be fully
fully useful.
useful.

2.4.1.3
2.4.1.3 Thinning experiments using
Thinning using graded
graded thinning
thinning treatments
treatments

In this
this type of experiment,
experiment, aa number of thinnings
thinnings are
are defined (typically 4), which
defined (typically whic h
differ from each
each other
other in
in terms
tenns of
of both
both timing
timing and
and intensity
int ensi ty of
of thinning
thinning and
and possibly
possibly in
in
terms of
of initial spacing
spacing also.
also. These treatments can
can be
be roughly
roughly classified
classified from
from light
light
thinning to
thinning to heavy
heavy thinning.
thinning.

of experiment
This type of experiment is
is very
very similar
similar to
to aa constant
constant basal
basal area
area thinning
thinning experiment
experiment
in tenns record keeping.
terms of analysis and record keeping. Records must
must be kept ofof the numbers and basal
basal area
area
of stems removed
removed at
at each
each thinning.
thinning. Analysis cancan be by
by several
several methods,
methods, the
the best
best of
of which
which is
is
the fitting
fitting of
of a predictive model of diameter or
of diameter or basal area increment
increment as a function
function of basal
basal
stem numbers, age,
area, stem age, etc.
etc.

The principal advantage over a constant basal area experiment is that

that the thinnings
thinningu
used are treatments which might be used in
in reality,
reality, allowing costing of
of thinnings,
thinnings, thinning
damage, windthrow risk and effects on
damage, windthrow on wood quality
quality to be assessed on
on the experiment.
experiment. Addi-
tionally,
tionally, thinning need not be performed so frequently
frequently as an
on the constant basal area experi-
ment, simplifying
simplifying administration.
administration.
 - 16
- 16 -
-

2.4.1.4 Factorial experiments

experiments with
with different
different components
components of
of thinning
thinning treatment
treatment

A thinning
A thinning treatment in
in aa uniform
uniform forest
forest can
can be
be broken
broken down
down into
into aa number
number of
of compo-
compo-
nel'lts, viz:
nents, viz:

ini tisl spacing

initial
first thinning
age of first
proportion of stocking removed at
at each thinning
time to elapse
elapse between
between each
each thinning.
thinning.

other variations are

Other are possible,
possible, as
as for
for example
example the
the basal
basal area
area at
at first
first thinning
thinning and
and
or the
at subsequent thinnings, or the use
use of
of height
height instead
instead of
of age.
age.

experiment is
When the experiment is designed
designed in
in this
this way,
way, it
it can
can be
be set
set out
out as
as aa factorial
factorial experi-
experi-
by assigning
ment by assigning aa number
number of
of levels
levels to
to each
each thinning
thinning component.
component.

The result will be

be aa large
large experiment,
experiment, with
with aa considerable
considerable number
number of
of treatment
treatment plots,
plots,
in the analysis
but in analysis it
it is
is possible to separate
separate the different effects
effects of thinning age,
age,
thinning
thinning intensity, etc..
etc.. Obviously the large number
number ofof treatments
treatments means
means that
that very
very careful
careful
administration is
is required,
required, whilst the factorial
factorial nature of the the e~eriment
experiment may
may bebe easily
easily
upset by accidental occurrences
occurrences such
such as
as fire
fire or
or disease
disease outbreak.
outbreak.

2.4.2
2.4.2 Mixed Forests

The main function of

of experiments
experiments in
in mixed
mixed forest
forest is
is to
to provide
provide aa controlled
controlled degree
degree of
of
disturbance of
of the forest
forest so
so that
that ultimately
ultimately aa model
model may
may be
be fitted
fitted relating
relating the
the increment
increment of
of
trees to the various parameters
parameters ofof the
the stand
stand following
follOwing treatment.
treatment.

A common problem with

A with experiments
experiments laid
laid down
down in
in mixed
mixed forest
forest isis that
that the
the treatments
treatments
are specified in terms which are irrelevant
irrelevant to the main parameters
parameters ofof the stand
stand that
that control
control
growth. This isis discussed
discussed at
at length
length and
and with
with numerous
numerous examples
examples by
by Synott
Synott (see
(see bibliography).
bibliography).
However, aa typical case
case would
would involve
involve the definition of
of four
four treatments as for example:
example:

1 - Log all merchantable species

speCies down to 30 cm
em
22 - poison or
As for 1, but poison or ring-bark
ring-bark all
all non-merchantable
non-merchantable species
species down
down to
to 30
30 cm
em
33 - As for 2, but killing non-merchantable stems down to 10 cm
em
4 - 3, but removing
As for 39 remOVing merchantable
merchantable species
species down
down to
to 20
20 am.
em.

The effect
effect of treatments
treatments defined in this
this way upon the stand will will depend
depend entirely
entirely upon
upon
condition of
the condition of the
the stand
stand prior
prior to
to logging,
lOgging, its
its size
size class
class and
and species
species class
class distribution.
distribution.
It is possible for
for the most severe
severe treatment
treatment (e.g.
(e.g. 44 above)
above) to
to have
have the
the least
least effect.
effect.

other
Other problans
problems have arisen by selecting only aa subset of trees
trees for increment
increment measure-
measure-
ment, on
on the basis of
of merchantability
merchantability criteria
criteria which
which have an
an unfortunate tendency to change
during the
during the intervals
intervals between
between plot
plot measurements.
measurements. The method
method of
of measuring
measuring increment
increment has
has often
often
been unable to cope with
with the development
development of
of buttresses.

At
At the
the moment,
moment, growth and yield research in mixed tropical
tropical forests
forests is developing
rapidly. The following recommendations are made therefore simply to help avoid the mistakes
mistakes
of the past
past and not
not in order to impose aa strait-jacket of unnecessary regimentation on
current work.
work.
 -17-
17

2.4.2.1 Randomized block design

design

It is
is suggested that
that aa randomized
randomized design,
design, with
with rePlication,
replication, should
should always
always be
be adopted
adopted
mixed forest
in mixed forest experiments.
experiments. The replicates should be blocked
blocked with
with site
site and
and species
species distri-
distri-
bution patterns, as well as past logging history,
history, as
as uniform
uniform as
as possible
possible within
within blocks.
blocks. This
This
careful preliminary survey of the experimental
implies a careful experimental area.
area

2.4.2.2
2.4.2.2 Treatment
Treatment definition

should be defined in terms

Treatments shauld terms of total
total basal
basal area
area toto be
be left
left after
after logging
logging
and/or poisoning
poisoning or
or girdling,
girdling, of
of trees
trees above
above aa minimum
minimum size
size of
of 10
10 cm.
em.

other definitions of treatment

Other treatment are possible,
possible, but
but should
should always
always be
be made
made in
in terms
terms of
of
the remaining stand and not
not the material
material to be
be removed and
and should
should be
be independent
independent of
of economic
economic
criteria.

extremes, one
The treatments adopted should always include two extremes, ane being
being an
an undisturbed
undisturbed
stand and the other being an
an extremely severe treatment,
treatment, perhaps
perhaps removing
removing all
all material
material over
over
10 cm diameter.
em diameter.

2.4.2.3 Measurementsand
Measurements and plot design
0..2-1.2[1221En

are required
Large plots are required for
for experiments
experiments involving
involving felling
felling treatments.
treatments. Typically a
200 xx 200 m
m plot (4 hal with
(4 ha) with aa 100
100 mm surround
surround is necessary. On
is necessary. On the main
the main plot,
plot, all large
(say over
trees (say over 30
30 cm)1
em should
should be
be mapped.
mapped. Subdivision of the the plot
plot into 20 xx 20 m m quadrats
is
is desirable and allows local
local competitive
competitive effects
effects to
to be
be included
included into
into models
models of
of growth,
growth,
regeneration and
and mortality.
mortality.

Detailed counts
counts of
of seedlings
seedlings can
can be
be made
made on
on aa systematic
systematic subsample
subsample of
of quadrats.
quadrats .

The methods of
of increment
increment measurement
measurement are
are discussed
discussed in
in section
section 3.
3.
 - 19
19 -

3.
3. PROCEDURES FOR DATA COLLECTION
COLLECTION AND
AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS

3.1
3.1 SAMPLE PLOT DEMARCATION

3.1.1
3.1.1 Location

Permanent sample plots, in

in particular, need
need to
to be
be accurately
accurately located
located onon forest
forest maps
maps
and their precise
precise Position
position in
in the forest
forest determined through the
the use
use of
of survey tape
tape and
and
compass. In addition to recording
compass. recording positions on
on maps, it is helpful
it is helpful to
to place
place stone
stone or
or con-
con-
on nearby forest
crete markers on forest roads
roads showing the bearing and distance
distance to
to the
the plot
plot from
from the
the
marker.

Temporary plots also need to be located on working maps,

maps, but
but the
the degree
degree of
of precision
precision
required is
required is not
not usually
usually so
so great.
great.

Design prinCiples relating to plot location

principles relating location are
are discussed
discussed in
in section
section 2.2.
2.2.

3.1.2
3.1.2 psp
PSP Identification on
on the Ground

be permanently
PSPs must be permanently marked
marked on
on the
the ground.
ground. Circular plots should
should be
be marked
marked at
at
the plot centre with a post of
of durable wood,
wood, concrete or metal
metal bearing the
the plot
plot identifi-
identifi-
cation number. This central point should also be indicated by by digging
digging intersecting
intersecting trenches
trenches
long, with the point of intersection
50 cm deep and approximately 2.5 metres long, intersection being
being the
the plat
plot
centre. This provides a permanent mark
mark on
on the
the ground
ground in
in the
the event
event of
of the
the plot
plot centre
centre post
post
being lost
being lost or
or stolen.
stolen.

Rectangular plots should similarly

Similarly be marked at the four corners
corners with posts,
posts, one
one of
of
which carries the
the plot
plot identification
identification number.
number. Trenches should
should be dug to intersect at
at the
the
corner post positions.
positions .

The plot
plot identity should also be prominently painted on aa tree
tree near
near to the
the centre
centre or
corner post
a corner post bearing
bearing the
the plot
plot identity.
identity.

Rectangular plots subdivided into quadrats may also have smaller posts
posts placed
placed at
at the
the
intersections. These should be of a different size to the
quadrat intersections. the corner posts
posts to
to avoid
avoid
confusion. Alternatively, quadrats
quadrats may
may be
be resurveyed
resuzveyed at
at each
each measurement.
measurement.

3.1.3 Determination of Eage Trees

Determination ilf_Edgf_Trees

trees will
Most trees will be
be either
either clearly
clearly within
,Jithin the
the plot
plot or
or clearly
clearly outside
outside it.
it. Some will
will
intersect with
with the plot edge.
edge. These should be be included iif
f the estimated
estimated centre
centre of
of the
the tree
tree
is
is inside the line demarcating the plot and excluded otherwise.
otherwise.

edge of
The edge of a circular
circular plot is
is determined
determined by
by using
using aa line
line or
or rope stretched from the
centre post. Care should be be taken that
that the line does not
not have Significant
significant elasticity (many
lines are
light nylon lines are very
very elastic)
elastic) or
or become wrapped
wrapped around
around the
the centre
centre post whilst
whilst working
working
round the
round the plot.
plot.

shows radii
The following table shows radii (i.e.
(i.e. distance
distance from
from plot centre
centre post to edge)
edge) for
for
of circular
common plot areas of circular plots.
plots.
 - 20
- 20-_

Plat
Plot area (ha)
(ha) Radius (m)
(m)

0.04 11.28
11.28
0.05
0.05 12.62
12.62
0.08 15.96
0.10 17.84
With small rectangular
rectangular plots,
plats, the ~e may
the edge may be
be determined
determined by
by taking
taking aa line
line of
of sight
sight
between two
between two corner
corner posts.
posts. With larger plats
plots with intervening vegetation,
vegetation, it
it will
will be
be neces-
neces-
sary to insert extra
extra edge
edge markers
markers along
along aa bearing
bearing between
between the
the corner
corner posts.
posts. Small
Small vegetat ion
vege±aticn
judiciously removed
may be judiciously removed along
along the plat edge,
edge, provided one is not destroying regeneration
forms part
that forms part of
of the
the forest
forest growing
growing stock.
stock.

3.1.4
3.1.4 Marking Trees

Trees
Trees on permanent plots
plats should
should if
if at
at all
all possible
possible be
be permanently
permanently identified.
identified. There
two ways
are two ways of
of doing
doing this:
this:

1. By painting
By painting the
the identity
identity number
number on
on the tree
2. By using
By using embossed
embossed aluminium
aluminium tags
tags nailed
nailed to
to the
the tree.
tree.

f the tree number is painted on

IIf on, then the measurement
measurement point
point for diameter
diameter should
should also
also
be marked
be marked by
by painting
painting aa ring
ring around
around the
the tree.
tree. IIf
f an
an aluminium tag is used it should be
nailed to the tree a fixed distance above the diameter measurement point,point, usually 50 cm
em
so that the
above, so the latter
latter can
can be
be exactly
exactly relocated.
relocated. The reference point for diameter
is of
measurement is of course
course normally
normally at
at 1.3
1.3 mm initiallyy
initially, except
except for
for buttressed rainforest
rainforest
trees, but may
trees, may change
change as
as ground
ground level
level alters
alters over
over time.
time.

An aluminium tag should also be nailed to the stump of the tree,

tree, close to ground l""el.
level.
identify cut
This helps to identify cut stumps
stumps and
and gives
gives added
added security
security against
against loss
loss of
of tags.
taga.

Pbint
Paint markinga
markings should not be used as the sole means
means of identification with species
species
(e. g. many Eucalyptus
that shed their bark (e.g. species). ~larlcinga
fucal;yptus species). should be renewed at each
Markings should
remeasurement where they are becoming worn or
or have been lost.
lost.
3.1.5
3.1.5 Mapping Trees
Mapping Trees on
on the
the Plot
Plat

If possible, on aa plot
possible, trees on plat should
should be
be mapped
mapped at
at the
the initial
initial assessment.
assessment. For circular
plots, record the distance and
and bearing
bearing of
of each
each tree
tree from
from the
the plot
plat centre.
centre. For rectangular
subdivide the plot
plots, subdivide plat into
into quadrats,
quadrats, each
each of
of which
which is
is not
nat more
more than
than 10
10 mm by
by 10
10 mm and
and
of the
then measure the distance of the tree
tree from
from the
the two
two quadrat
quadrat boundaries. Record these dis-
of the
tances as the coordinates of the tree
tree within
within the
the quadrat.
quadrat.

Mapping trees
Mapping trees is
is helpful
helpful both
both in
in resolving
resolving the
the frequent
frequent confusion
confusion over
over tree
tree identities
identities
that occurs
that occurs and in the analysis of
of growth
growth phenomena
phenomena an
on the
the plot.
plat.

3.1.6 Identity Numbers

Numbers for Ingrowth

In
In natural
natural forests,
forests, ingrowth present at each
each assessment will
will need to be given
given anan
identification number, a quadrat
quadrat number
number and
and coordinates
coordinates onon the
the plot
plat map.
map. Great care
care isis
necessary to
necessary to ensure
ensure that
that the
the identity
identity number
number given
given is
is not
not one
one previously
previously assigned
assigned on
on that
that
plat, have died
plot, including trees that have died or
or been
been removed
removed at
at an
an earlier
earlier stage.
stage. Otherwise
otherwise great
great
confusion results when the data
data is
is processed.
processed.
 -- 21
21 -
-

3.2
3.2 SAMPLE PWT
PLOT MEASURU!ENT FOmlS AND
MEASUREMENT FORMS AND PRIMARY
PRIMARY ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS

3.2.1
3.2.1 Uniform
Uniform Forests
Forests

Sample plots in even-aged,

even-aged, monospecific forests
forests (normally
(normally plantations)
plantations) require
require
measurement of:
measurement of:

1. Diameter over bark

bark at
at 1.3
1.3 m, using aa girth
m using girth tape
tape calibrated
calibrated inTrom
inlTcm units,
units, on
on each
tree.

2. on aa systematic
Tree heights on systematic sample
sample of
of 88 trees,
trees, together
together with
with heights
heights of
of dominant
dominant
trees not included
included in
in the
the sample.
sample.

Dominant height isis defined

defined as
as the
the mean
mean height
height of
of the
the 100
100 thickest
thickest stems
stems per
per ha.
ha. Thu2
Thus
the number
number of
of trees
trees required
required for
for dominant
daninant height
height estimation
estimation is
is the
the plot
plot area
area times
times 100.
100. For
example,
example, on a plot
plot of 0.04 ha, 4 trees are required. TreesTrees with
wdth broken
broken or significantly
damaged tops are
are not
not used
used in
in height
height sampling.
sampling.

Additional characters
characters can
can be
be noted
noted on
on each
each tree.
tree. Disease problems,
problems, dying trees,
trees, wind
wind
or insect
insect damage and trees marked
marked for
for thinning
thinning can
can be
be recorded.
recorded. Such additional
additional notes
notes should
should
be coded in aa rigidly
rigidly standardized
standardized way
way and
and entered
entered anon the
the plot
plot record
record form.
form. The following
may be
coding suggestions may be adopted:
adopted :

Code Description

entry
no entry unmarked for
Tree healthy, undamaged, unmarked for thinning,
thinning, single
single non-defective
non-defective
stem.

A
A damage.
Animal damage.

B broken by
Tree broken by wind.
wind.
D Disease problem.
Disease problem.
L or multiple leader
Double or laader or
or stems.
stems.
M marked for
Tree marked thinn~ng (but
for thinning (but still
still standing).
standing).
S dying from
Tree dying from suppression.
suppressi on.
T felled (may
Tree has been felled (may be
be measured
measured on
on the
the ground).
ground).
W leaning or
Tree leaning or fallen
fallen from
from wind
wind damage.
damage.
X
X Tree dead.
Tree dead.

Following the letters,

Following letters, numeric codes
codes can
can be
be placed
placed indicating
indicating the degree of severity
of the problem. The following is suggested:
following scale is suggested:

1 Damage/disease pres
Da.mage/disease ent but
present but very light.
very light.

2 J40re severe
More severe damage
damage -- is
is likely
likely to
to significantly
significantly reduce
reduce growth
gro.rth or
or
impede utilization.
impede utilization.

33 Very severe damage/disease. or make it

Likely to kill tree or it
unutilizable.
 - 22 -

other can be
Other codes can be introduced
introduced for
for specific
specific problems.
problems. The important point is that for for
to be
such a system to be of
of any
any use,
use, it
it must
must be
be rigidly
rigidly adhered
adhered to
to without
without alteration
alteration or
or omission
omission
over many years.
many years.

Form 3.1
3.1 is shown
shown as
as a recording
recording form
form for
for this
this type
type of
of plot.
plot. It is specifically
specifically
designed to facilitate
facilitate automatic
automatic data
data processing.
processing. Field entries
entries should
should be
be made in
in soft
soft
pencil with arubber
a rubber being used to ranove error8~
remove errors.

The primary variables calculated

calculated on
on aa plat
plot are:
are:

1. Stocking
Stocking per ha (N). Divide the total number of
ha (N). of live trees on
on the plot by
by plot
plot
area.
area. From the example entered
entered in
in form
form 3.1:
3.1: '

N 9 / 0.04
N = 9 0.04 =
= 225 stems/ha.

2. Diameter of
Diameter of the
the mean
mean basal
basal area
areatree
tree(D(Dg)
g ). Sum the diameters squared and divide
by the
by the number
number of
of trees
trees on
on the
the clot.
plot. Take the square
square root
root of
of the
the result.
result. For
example:
the example:

~d2
2-,d2 = 16237
Dg
D = ,/F6237
-/(16237 // 9)
9)
=
= 42.5 cm.

3. Ho' This
height Ho.
Stand dominant height This is the
the mean
mean height
height of the
the specified
specified number
number of
of
dominant trees on
on the plot.
plot. For the example,
example,

Ho = (32.1 + 29.6 + 30.8 + 33.1)/4

=
= 31.4m.
31.4 mo

4. height H. This is the mean of

Stand mean height of the systematic
systematic sample
sample of
of height
height trees
trees
or as
as in the example an
on form 3.1,
3.1, the
the mean
mean of
of all heights. In the example,
all heights. example,

H
H = 31.7 m.
31.7m.

5. Stand volume
Stand volume V.
V. This is usually calculated
caloulated from
from an individual
individual tree
tree volume
volume tariff
tariff
by diameter
entered by diameter and
and height.
height. There are two methods;
methods:

(0
(i) Calculate
Calculate the
the volume
volume of
of the
the tree
tree of
of diameter
diameter Dg
D and height H
H and then multiply
multiply
by stocking
by stocking NN to
to give
give volume
volume in m3/ha.
in m3/ha.

(ii)
(ii) Calculate
Calcula-te individual
individual tree
tree volumes
volumes vv from
from diameter
diameter d and height h. these
Sum these
volumes and divide by plot area to give volume per ha. ha.

In
In this
this second
second case,
case, if hh is not known
is not known for
for all
all trees,
trees, either estimate
estimate it
it
from a (c.f. section 3) or use
a height/diameter regression (c.f. H instead.
use H

Both methods introduce

introduce an error
error into
into volume
volume estimation.
estimation. The first
first ane
one has an error
error
may result
that may result from
from the distribution
distribution of
of diameters
diameters and
and the
the second
second one
one from
from the estimation
estimation
of heights. The second method is generally
generally preferable ' for accuracy,
accuracy, especially
especially if volume
is
is being
being estimated to aa merchantable top diameter limit.
limit.
 -23-
- 23 -

Form 3.1
Form 3.1 Sample
Sample Plot Assessment
P16~ Assessment Form -- Plantations
Sheet ...of...
• •• of. ••

Forest
Forest District
District Compartment
Compartment Plot number Species

1110131
/

Plot
Plot
3 101012.1
o o
Slope
II 1a.IA 1 11.13 Iq9 1+1
Assessment
2. 2_ I
rn Office
Office
use

area f o Is I NEI 00 date 1119

iI 9 I -
2 j

month year no. of

no. of
cards
Tree no.
no. Diameter bhob Height - -- -- -- Codes
- Codec - - - - -
I I 3 q r4- 2- g b
t7
I 10 4- 3 I 3 2- I
I¡3
3 3 b 4- B 3
~
I 6 4- 'g 5 Z 9 b
I/ <i
9 4- (, 4- ~ e> g

2. I 2-
" "
4- I I
1..4- :> 'il I 3 4- 2.
4 2- g '8'
4-
9 4- I.i- 'j
'3

"' "3 I

Notes
~-<Q.cI.
.t.ead
.. .::~
•• I."!...
.. •• • ~.~ ~.;J. !"J.,,!~':'d>
.":"::1. • .. .. r. ...~'!>.K.~ .~ ':t.~
e oeop000t oeoe.00tneoo0000o0OOO *co ono 00000* 000"0 00.0000a>o 0000.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. ..

.. . .. . . . . . . . 00470000
.00000000Un .
. . . . . .. . 0.00 .
. . .. . . . . .. . . 0000000004.06000
. . .. 0000000000 . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .. .. .. pn
.. .. .. .e .000
.. .. ..000
.. .. 0000
.. .. . . 0..
Assessed by •• ~>~~...........
by ... ... Date
Date •• 3./ ..1- ./. ~1
BACK dF
USE BACK OF FORM
FORM FOR
FOR HEIGHT
HEIGHT CALCULATIONS
CALCULA TI ONS
 ==_

- 24
24-

volumes may
Several different volumes may be
be calculated,
calculated, using
using different
different volume
volume equations.
equations. For
example:

Vob
Vob
Over bark total volume (i.e.
(i.e. to
to the
the tip
tip of
of the
the tree).
tree).
Vub Under bark
Under bane total
total volume.
volume.
b
V
V7
7 Volume to 7 em
cm top diameter limit.
diameter limit.

V15
V15 to 15 cm top diameter
Volume to diameter limit.
limit.

The various
va.rious symbols
symbols and
and units
units used
used for
for primary
primary stand
stand variables
variables are
are listed
listed in
in Table
Table
3410

Table 3.1
Table 3.1

SYMBOl.'l FOR
SYMBOLS FOR PRIMARY
PRDlARY STAND
STAND VARIABLES
VARIABLES

Symbol Description Units

A
A from planting
Stand age from planting years

Dg Diameter of
of the
the tree of
of mean
mean
area
basal area cm
CM

G Stand basal area

area m2/ha

H Stand mean height m

Ho
Ho Stand dominant
dominant height,
height9 defined
as
as the mean height
height of the 100
diameter stems/ha
largest diameter stEl!ls/ha m

N Stocking - number of
of live
live trees/ha trees/ha
i
V Stand volume. Type of *
of volume
v:.olume is
is m3/ha
denoted by
by a subscript e.g.
subscript tog.
Vub underbark volume
V bark volume to 7 cm
V7 - over bane
7 cm

Measurements made
Measurements made immediately
immediately after
after thinning
thinning may
may be
be indicated
indicated byby aa prime
prime (').
(,).
E.g. N'
E.g. N' stocking
stocking after
after thinnning.
thinnning. Removals in thinningn
thinnings should be denoted by
Bubscript e.
a subscript e. E.g. GeG would
would be
be basal
basal area
area removed
removed. in
in thinning.
thinning.
e

3.2.2 Mixed Forest

3.2.2 Mixed Forest

analysis in mixed forest

Primary analynis forest aims
aims mainly
mainly to
to construct
construct aa stand
stand table
table giving
giving stem
stem
numbers grouped
numbern grouped by
by size
size classes
classes for
for each
each species
species or
or species
species group.
group.

constructed, then
Once the stand table has been constructed9 then various
various alternative
alternative measures
measures of
of growing
growing
stock can be derived from
from it
it using
using different
different criteria.
criteria. For example9
example, ane
one may wish to derive
area of
total basal area of trees
trees in
in aa given
given combination
combination ofof species
species groups
groups over
over aa certain
certain size;
size; onon
another occasion
another occasion ane
one may
may repeat
repeat the
the summary
sununary using
using different
different species
species groups
groups oror size
size limits.
limits.
 - 25
25 -

A table can
A stand table can of
of course
course be
be constructed
constructed directly
directly as
as the
the plot
plot is
is being
being measured,
measured,
by recording
by only counts
recording only counts by
by size
size and
and species
species classes.
classes. This
This procedure is not recommended
not reconmended
with any
with any type
type of
of inventory
inventory except
except the
the most
most preliminary
preliminary resource
resource assessments.
assessments. Individual
and species
tree dimensions and species should
should always be recorded,
recorded, even though the
the intention
intention may
may be
be to
to
subsequently summarize
summarize the
the data.
data. This
This is particularly important
important on
on permanent
permanent plots,
plots, since
since
individual tree
it allows individual tree increment
increment estimates.
estimates.

Measurement forms
Measurement forms for
for plots
plots in
in mixed forest
forest may
may vary considerably,
conSiderably, depending on the
characteristics being
being recorded.
recorded. The following types of
of situation are commonly
commonly found:

(a) Mixed tropical montane forest (A

(A few
few light
light demanding species of
of mixed
mixed age).
age).
Form 3.1 may
may be used with
with the first
first 'code'
'code' column
column being
being reserved
reserved for
for species
species
as aa two
two digit
digit or
or two
two letter
letter code.
code. A A systematic sample of heights
heights should
be meausred,
always be meausred, to
to allow
allow aa height/diameter
height/diameter curve
curve to
to be
be constructed.
constructed.

(b) rainforest
Tropical rainforest (Large numbers
(Large numbers of mixed species, climbers, epiphytes,
species, climbers,
buttresses ) .
buttresses).

Large plots,
Large plots, over
over 11 ha,
ha, are normally used,
used, subdivided
subdivided into
into 10 x 10 m
m subplots
subplots
or quadrats. Heights are not not normally measurable,
measurable, but
but trees
trees may
may be
be classified
classified
crown shape
by crown shape and
and crown
crown position.
position. Two reference
reference diameters
diameters should
should be
be measured
measured
forming buttresses.
on stems forming buttresses. There are normally several hundred distinct
normally several hundred distinct
species likely
likely to occur
occur on
on aa plot.

(c) Sub-humidwoodlands
Subhumid woodlands (E.g.
(E.g. Miombo
Mianbo forest
forest in
in eastern
eastern Africa).
Africa).
tree form
Here tree form and
and length
length of
of merchantable
merchantable bole
bole are
are important
important characteristics.
characteristics.
is easily
Height is easily measurable because of of the openness
openness of
of the forest,
forest, but
but only to
nearest metre
the nearest metre because
because of
of diffuse
diffuse crown
crown shape.
shape. There are
are likely
likely to
to be
be over
100 possible species present.
possible species present.

(d) Arid-zone woodland

Aridzone woodland
likely to be
Trees are likely be multi-stemmed with height
multistemmed with height and
and species
species being
being the only
only
characters of
of importance.
importance. Height should
should be
be measured
measured toto the
the nearest
nearest decimetre.
decimetre.

3.1 shows
Figure 3.1 shows alternative
alternative record
record formats
formats for
for tree measurements for these four
cases,
cases, together with the record format
format from Form 3.1 for plantations for for comparison.
comparison. AA
'record' is
'record' is assumed
assumed to
to be
be the
the amount
amount of
of data
data that
that can
can be
be entered
entered on on one
one 8O-column
80column punched
card, the commonest
card, which represents the canmonest medium
medium for
for data
data input
input to
to aa computer.
computer.

3.2.3
3.2.3 Initial Assessment
Assessment of Permanent Plots

When
When aa permanent plot is assessed for the first
first time9
time, the following additional
additional
required:
information is required:

(1) The exact area of the plot, a plane projection i.e.

plot, as a i.e. corrected for slope.
slope.

(2) site information

Basic site information including
including latitude,
latitude, longitude,
longitude, aspect,
aspect, altitude, slope,
slope,
slope position, forest history and past land use.
position, forest use.

(3) Meteorological information

information from
fran the
the nearest
nearest weather
weather station
station giving
giving monthly
monthly
and mean
precipitation and mean minimum
minimum and
and maximum
maximum temperatures.
temperatures.
,

- 26
- 26 --

(4) The positions of

of all the trees
trees on
on the
the plots. For circular plots, these should should
recorded as
be recorded as aa bearing
bearing and
and distance
distance from
from the
the plot
plot centre.
centre. For
For rectangular
rectangular
these should
plots, these should be
be given
given as
as XX and
and YY coordinates
coordinates in
in decimetres
decimetres from
from the
the most
most
south-west
south,west corner ofof the plot.

(5) information including:

Soil profile information including:
colour
colour
- texture
texture
pH
pH
N, P,
analysis for N, P, K, Ca, Mg
Kt Ca, Mg
depth
bulk density
for each
for each discernible
discernible soil
Boil horizon.
horizon. The soil
soil pits or
or auger
auger holes
holes should
should be
be
on each
replicated on each plot.
plot. Two samples should be sufficient
sufficient except
except on
on very
very large
large
and variable
variable plots.
plots. Analytical techniques may
may vary
vary somewhat
somewhat according
according to
to methods
methods
already in use in a particular country and
and special
special conditions
conditions encountered,
encountered, and
and
should be determined in
in collaboration
collaboration with
with soil
soil scientists.
scientists. -However, once a
However, once
for soil analysis has
system for has been
been settled
settled upon,
upon, it
it should
should be
be modified
modified only
only for
for
very strong
very strong reasons and, at the time of
of modification,
modification, aa series
series of samples (20
samples (20
or 30) should be analysed by
by both
both the
the old
old and
and new
new methods
methods to
to determine
determine aa
regression relation to allow results
results from
from the old methods
methods to
to be
be compared
compared with
with
the new
new ones.
ones ,

3.3 ANALYSIS PROCEDURE

STEM ANALYSIS PROCEDURE

Stem analysis refers

refers to
to the
the reconstruction
reconstruction of
of the
the growth
growth history
history of
of aa tree
tree by:
by:

(a) Felling
Felling the tree;

(b) Cutting discs

discs at intervals of
of around
around 22 mm along
along the
the stem:
stem;
(c) Careful
Careful counting and measurement of
of growth
growth rings
rings on
on the
the discs.
discs.

AA great deal ofof information

information about
about stand
stand dynamics
dynamics can
can be
be gained
gsined from
from stem
stem analysis,
analysis ,
but in
in this
this manual thethe main concern
concern is
is that
that of
of reconstructing
reconstructing the
the dominant
dominant height
height growth
growth
history of aa stand.
history of stand.

The procedure is only possible in seasonal climates and with species producing clearly
defined rings.
defined rings.

For height growth reconstruction, only

only the height of
of measurement and ring
ring count need
be recorded. With species and climates producing very unambiguous rings
ringe this can
can be done
in
in the field with little difficulty.

Where rings are not cut, clearly

not so clear, discs must be cut, clearly marked in in the
the field
field as to
their point of
of origin
origin on
on the
the tree
tree and
and their
their orientation
orientati on (i.e.
(i. e. which
which way
way up
up the
the disc
disc was
was an
on
the
the tree), laboratory for
tree), and returned to the laboratory for assessment
assessment byby one
one of
of two
two methods:

(1) Planing
Planing and polishing
polishing the disc,
disc, followed by counting of
of rings
ringe along two axes
using a microscope an
on a vernier
vernier rack
rack and
and pinion
pinion mounting.
(2) Cutting
Cutting of
of two
two samples
samples along aa cross,
cross, with
withsubsequent
subsequentanalysis by X-ray densitometry.
analysisbyX-ray densitometry.
 Fi gure 3.1

RECORD FO~IATS FOR TREE r~EASURU1ENTS IN DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES

neE:

..
IS"' T e e", 2, .... Lt ""
Plantation or '?u R eO' 5"" ~e'6
NJ el- H
U1 0 hz:I

cl-
cl
Tt.d'

...-
° CD p

H-
H)j 0

Fi
CD O ..
other single 1-1 ... ....
ti

0 got
.,
.e
.

C-0.08
~

.0. Es

DAMe-ree
~~

DolmErEst
""

bAMPre4

TER
. ~~
I-

kecrt4-r
~olles
>- CoDes >-
E~
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o
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c+
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NR.
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k
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'!

I4E ts

T5 PE
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JJ~
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'"I , ,I, I, % r ~

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Rainforest with , ,,,,, "~E"E

oi
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buttressed trees

ca.0.. /net.

e;,'

74
70 5

Clp

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cdo dot., StiChP
pr
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..... 0

cStow, PeS

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SpFc.E.s
wo,q01-
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coil&
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Sub-humid forest -no:.rc ...,.eoc;

I
lilT -nunr ::t .... "l"f. :t> 4-....... ""I1teE 5'""''' TotMiO

(temporary plot
"~3 to.~~. ~,:~~~~iJ~3
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C ",j oJ III. ... oJ '2: .; .. <I ... " lit. .... "
Z" 2\11 a." ,~:t~!,II :t: ~. ' oil
" , T , ,i I, r ,I " , T i." ,! , " ,T I, I" ,T I, t , • , • , , I, r . , . , , I I I" ! ,-,
 --28-
28 -

(1) or
In either of cases (1) or (2)9
(2), false
false rings
rings or very faint
faint rings
rings should
should be
be checked
checked
against climatic
climatic records.
records. With X-ray densitometry, which produces
densitometry which produces aa numerical
numerical estimate
estimate of
ring width
ring width and
and density,
density, direct
direct correlation
correlation with
with climatic
climatic variables
variables is
is possible.
possible.

The age at which

which the
the tree
tree reached
reached aa given
given height
height is
is gtven
given by
by the
the number
number of
of rings
rings at
at
base of
the base of the
the tree
tree minus
minus the
the number
number of
of rings
rings at
at the
the given
given height.
height. From this,
thiS, height
height can
can
be plotted
be plotted directly
directly on
on age
age for
for the
the tree.
tree.

If
If the
the sample tree is is aa well-fonned
well-formed dominant,
dominant, then this
this height-age
height-age curve
curve may
may be
be
regarded as essentially the same as a height-age curve derived from a pennanent sample plot,
regarded as essentially the same as a height-age curve derived from a permanent sample plot,
may be
and may be analysed
analysed in
in the
the same
same way.
way.

3.4 SPEX)IAL MEl'HOm

SPECIAL TREE INCREMENT
METHODS OF TREE INCR»IUlT ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION

3.4.1
3.4.1 Simple Measurements

·On
On pennanent
permanent plots,
plots, tree increment is estimated by taking the
the difference
difference between
between
successive diameter
diameter measurements, divided
divided by measurement interval.
by the measurement interval. For this to be an
accurat
accuratee procedure:

(1) be clearly
Individual trees must be clearly and
and uniquely
uniquely identified
identified on
on the
the plot.
plot.

(2) The point of

of measurement an
on the
the tree
tree must
must be
be precisely
precisely relocatable.
relocatable. Two alter-
native methods
native methods are
are possible:
possible:

(i) paint aa ring

ring at
at the
the point
point of
of breast
breast height
height measurement.
measurement. may be
This may be
under some
excessively conspicuous under some circumstances;
circumstances;

(ii) insert
insert aa nail
nail aa precise distance above the point of measurement
point of (50 em
measurement (50 cm
is suggested) and relocate the point ofof meaaurement
measurement with reference
reference to
nail. This nail may also bear the tree identification tag.
the nail. tag.

3.4.2 on Buttressed
Remeasurement on Buttressed Trees
Trees

are developing
When trees are developing buttresses,
buttresses, itit is
is customary to measure diameter
diameter atat a refe-
refe-
rence point about
about 11 metre
metre above
above the
the buttresses. Since buttresses
buttresses will
will extend between
remeasurements, it
remeasurements it is
is Obviously
obviouslynecessary
necessary to
to move
move the
the reference
reference diameter
diameter from
from time
time to
to time.
time.

any increment
This procedure makes any increment determination
determination from
from successive
successive remeasurements
remeasurements
impossible.

may be
Two approaches may be adopted
adopted to
to counter
counter this
this problem.
problem.

!l!:21
First Use two reference diameters at at each
each remeasurement.
remeasurement. Then,
Then, if it is necessary
to move the lower reference diameter,
diameter, it
it replaces the upper one and aa new
new reference
reference diameter
diameter
is formed
fonned above
above the
the original
original top
top reference
reference diameter.
diameter. In In this
this way,
way, direct increment estima-
estima,-
tion is always possible.

is recommended
It is recamnended that
that the
the two
two diameters
diameters should
should be
be 1.5
1.5 mm apart,
apart, with
with the
the lower
lower one
one
1 metre above the
the top
top of
of the
the buttresses.
buttresses.
 - 29
29 -

illustrated in
The process is illustrated in the
the diagram
diagram below,
below.

-d~--------~----- ~

firs
firstt measurement second measurement third measurement
L
1
-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~----------~,
I
tiI~-----------r----------~
I
I

increment = (d1
(d1 on
on 2nd
0::=2nd meas.
meas. - (d 1 on 3rd meas.
increment = (d1 meas. -..
d2 / time
d2 on 1st meas.) / time interval
interval on 2nd meas.) /
d2 on / time interval

that these reference diameters

Note that diameters should
should be
be marked
marked with
with paint
paint oror nails.
nails. It isis
essential cli,!,b the trees with
essential to climb with ladders
ladders and
and measure
measure diameters
diameters with
with girth
girth tapes.
tapes. Optical
Optical
such as
instruments such as the
the Relaskop
Relaskop are
are not
not sufficiently
sufficiently accurate
accurate for
for increment
increment estimation.
estimation.

Second The other approach isis to

to use
use girth
girth bands, as
as described
described below,
below, and
and make
make
estimates over
increment estimates over short
short periods (1-2
(1-2 years)
y ears) before buttresses can significantly
influence the
influence the reference
reference diameter.
diameter.

3.4.3 Girth Bands

Girth Bands

Girth bands may·

may be constructed locally suite
quite cheaply and are particularly useful
useful
intensive research
for intensive research in,
in, for
for example,
example, thinning
thinning experiments.
experiments. Without
Without a vernier scale,
vernier scale,
they are accurate
they are accurate to ± t mm, which is
to.± is quite adequate for increment
increment estimation
estimation over
over 1 year
year
periods on
on tropical
tropical species.
species. With the add~tion of
the addition of aa vernier
vernier scale,
scale, the
the accuracy
accuracy increases
increases
to ± 0.05 mm diameter.
diameter. At this level,
level, they can indicate physiological
physiological rresponses
esponses and
and
seasonal growth
seasonal growth fluctuations.
fluctuations. (Conventional
(Conventional girth
girth measurements
measurements by contrast cannot give
increment more accurately than .± ± t an
on diameter even onon quite small
small trees
trees and
and are
are much
much
on very large trees.)
worse on trees.,

The basic requirements for construction are as follows:

follows:

(1) Basic materials required

required are
are aa roll
roll of
of 11 cm wide stainless steel hand,band, a large
large
~ength of
length of 1/3 cm
em coil
coil spring,
spring, scales
scales templates
templates for
for the
the main
main and
and vernier
vernier scales,
scales,
matt-black ceramic paint,
mattblack ceramic paint, aa shaped
shaped hole
hole punch
punch for
for the
the spring
spring fixings
fixings and
and a gas
or electric
electric oven.
oven.

(2) Suitable lengths of

of hand
band are wrapped around empty
empty tins and painted an
on one side
side
black ·paint. The tin, with the band, is
with the black.paint. is baked
baked to
to cure
cure the
the paint.
paint.
 -3o-
- 30 -

(3) A
A zero marl<: is scratched
mark is scratched in
in the paint
paint at
at one
one end
end with
with aa metal
metal point.
point. If a
vernier scale is
vernier is to
to be added,
added, it
it is included atat this
this point,
point, with
with the
the position
position
of the graduations being
being defined
defined by
by the
the vernier
vernier template.
template.

(4) The approximate girth

girth of
of the tree must
muet be
be known
known before
before adding
adding the
the 'long'
'long' scale,
scale,
about 10
aboUt 10 cm
cm actual
actual length
length (equivalent
(equivalent to
to c.
c. 3 cm
em of diameter),
diameter), so that the band
can be cut to the correct
correct length and the scale
scale put
put on
on at
at the
the correct
correct point.
point. The
The
is scratched onto the band ueing the appropriate scale template .
scale is scratched onto the band using the appropriate scale template.

(5) for the

Slots for the retaining
retaining spring
spring are
are punched
punched in
in the
the band,
band, one
one outside
outside the
the zero
zero
(& vernier
mark (& vernier scale),
scale), the
the other
other inside
inside the
the long
long scale.
scale. The spring is fitted
through one
one end,
end, the
the band
band placed
placed around
around the
the tree,
tree, taking
taking care
care to
to remove
remove loose
loose
bark and avoid sag atat the back
back of the tree,
tree, and
and then
then the
the free
free end
end ofof the
the spring
spring
slotted in.
is slotted in. The spring should be cut to a length that gives a good positive positive
tension to
to the
the band.
band.

Increment
Increment is
is measured as the scale
s cale movement between
between the
the initial
initial and
and final
final reading.
reading.
nonnally inTram
The scales are normally in"em units,
units, giving
givilfg direct
direct reading
reading of
of diameter.
diameter. If the starting
point of the long scale
soal e is placed an exact
exact number of centimetres
centimetres from
from the
the zero
zero mark,
mark, the
the
band also
hand also gives
gives an
an absolute
absolute reading
reading of
of diameter.
diameter. If the long scale starts at an arbitrary
point,
point, then absolute diameter (as(as opposed to increment) should
should bebe measured
measured with
with aa separate
separate
just above
girth tape just above or
or below
below the
the hand.
band.

Templates for cutting

cutting the
the bands can
can be
be purchased
purchased from
from forestry
forestry instrument
instrument suppliers,
s uppliers,
or
or manufactured locally in any
manufactured locally any well equipped
equipped workshop.
workshop.

Various
Various kinds
kinds of sophisticated girth bands,
bands, some equipped
equipped for
for telemetry,
telemetry, can
can bbe
e
purchased directly. Because of their expense,
expense, these should only bebe used for
for the
the most
most inten-
inten-
sive kinds of
of research
research and
and under
under close
close supervision
supervision of
of the
the experimental
experimental area
area against
against animal
animal
or human damage.

3.4.4 Ring If,Measurements

Growth Ring easurements

Where growth
Where growth rings
rings are
are present,
present, they
they can
canbe
beused
usedtotoestima-te
estimate increment.
increment. The mos mostt
reliable method is by
by the
the use
use ofof stem
stem sections
sections on
on complete
complete felled
felled trees,
trees, taken at d.b.h.
taken at d. b. h.

of the last three or

The width of or four annual rings
rings should be measured on two diameters
diameters
at
at right angles onon the section.
section. These diameters should
should be
be along
along the
the major
major and
and minor
minor axes
8JCes
if the section isis elliptical.
elliptical. This gives the periodic
periodic underbark
underbark increment.
increment. ItIt is necessary
relating underbark diameter measured directly,
to construct a regression relating directly, with overbark
diameter measured with a girth
girth tape to convert the increments
increments underbark onto aa common scale
wi th normal d.b.h.
with d. b.h. measurements.
measurements.

Increment estimated from

Increment can also be estimated fran samples
samples bored
bored from
from the
the tree.
tree • . This is subject
subj ect
to numerOUs errors, especially
numerous errors, especially in
in species
species with soft
soft timber.
timber. The resultant core core may
may be
be
or spirally
stretched or spirally compressed.
canpressed. ItIt may not be accurately
accurately radial.
radial.

Because the
Because the difficulties
difficulties in
in counting
counting growth
growth rings
rings in
in tropical
tropical areas
areas often
often require
require
resort
resort to calibrated microscopes or X-ray densitometre,
densitometre, complete sections
sections should be regarded
essentia.l. The use of
as essential. of increment borers is
is not usually
usually aa possible option.
option.
 - 31
31 -

3.5
305 INDIrux:T
INDIRECT 'rREE
TREE DOMINANT
DOMINANT HEIGHT
HEIGHT ESTIMATION
ESTIMATION

Because tree height estimation isis aa relatively

relatively slow procedure,
procedure, it
it is
is not
not usually
usually
desirable
desirable to measure more than 8-10
8-10 trees
trees on
on aa plot.
plot. IfIf the heights of all trees
the heights of all trees onon the
the
plot are required,
required, then
then aa height-diameter curve of
heightdiameter curve of the
the form
form

h = bo 4- bid b2d2

can
can be
be constructed. Some special points should
should be
be noted:
noted:

(1) The calculation method for

for this
this regression
regression is
is given
given in
in Appendix
Appendix 2.2,
2.2, together
together
with an example.
exampl e.

(2) With more than one

one plot in
in ae. single
single stand,
stand, the
the sample
sample trees
trees should
should be
be pooled
pooled
to fit
fit the height/diameter regression.
height/diameter regression.

(3)
(3) Samples between stands of
of varying
varying density
denSity or
or age
age should
should never
never be
be pooled
pooled for
for
detennination of the regression
determination of regression unless comparison
canparison of
of separate
separate regressions
regressions
(Appendix A shows there
A 2.8) shows there is
is no
no significant
significant difference.
difference.

(4)
(4) The fitted
fitted regression
regression should not
not be
be used
used to
to predict
predict heights
heights unless
unless three
three condi-
condi-
tions are satisfied:

(0
(i) value is
The regression F value is significant
significant at
at the
the 95% leVel.
leVel.

(ii) The bb1 coefficient is

is positive.
1
(iii) The b coefficient is
is negative.
negative.
2
b2

(5) Once the regression has been calculated and tested to see if it
it is
is uable,
uable, mean
height
height H can be estimated as the height
height predicted when
when Dg is
is substituted
substituted for
for dd
in the regression.
regressiono

(6)
(6) Similarly,
Similarly, dominant
dominant height
height Ho is
is predicted when
When the
the mean
mean diameter
diameter of
of the
the domi-
domi-
nants (i.e. 100 largest
nants (i.e. largest diameter trees
trees per
per ha),
ha), symbolised by
by Do.
Do, is
is entered
entered in
in
the regression for d.

Referring back to point (4),

(4) , it
it should
should be
be noted
noted that
that when
when these
these conditions
conditions are
are not
not
safer to assume that the individual
satisfied, it is safer individual tree heights h used for volume estima-
are equal
tion are equal to
to the
the stand
stand mean
mean height
height H.H. This situation
situation arises
arises in
in many
many tropical
tropical species
species
because the
because the variation
variation in
in tree
tree heights
heights is
is unrelated
unrelated to
to diameter
diameter differences
differences and
and the
the instru-
instru-
mental error
error involved
involved in
in measurement
measurement is
is greater
greater than
than the
the effects
effects of
of diameter
diameteron
on height.
height.
Significant regressions
Significant regressions and
and well-developed relationships between
welldeveloped relationships between tree
tree diameter
diameter and height
height
are more likely to occur
occur with more shadetolerant
shade-tolerantspecies
speciesandandat
at higher
higherstockings
stockings per
perha.
ha.

In mixed age stands,

stands, the regression
regression will always be significant and can always
always be
be
for individual
used for individual tree height
height determination.
determination. However, care should still be taken not
not to
regressions for
pool regressions for different
different stands
stands without
without adeauate
adequate statistical
statistical tests
tests for
for the
the homogeneity
homogeneity
of the data.
of
 - 32
32 -

I f the height-diameter
If regression is
heightdiameter regression is fitted
fitted to
to an
an age
age series
series ofof plantations
plantations (i.e.
(i. e. aa
series of stands
series of stands of different
different ages)
ages) itit will
will also
also be
be significant
significant. . It
It should
should be
be noted
noted however
however
that this is a different kind of of model to the one fitted within aa unifonnuniform age
age stand
stand and
and will
will
not reliable predict individual tree heights within
nct within one
one unifonn
uniform stand
stand (although
(althoughitit will predict
mean height HH as
as aa function
function of
of mean
mean diameter
diameter DgDg provided
provided that
that stand
stand density
density is
is constant).
constant).
Within
Within aa single-age stand, the
singleage stand, the regression
regression reflects
reflects dominance
dominance differences.
differences . Between age
classes,
classes, it
it reflects
reflects aa time-dependent growth relationship.
timedependent growth relationship.
 -- 33
33 -

4. DATA STORAGE SYSTEMS

DATA STORAGE SYSTBIS

4.1 ADVAli'l'AGE!3
ADVAVTAGES OF CCNPUTER-BASED DATA STORAGE
CONFUTER-BASED DATA STORAGE SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS

A computel'-based
A store all
computer-based data storage system will store all permanent
pennanent sample
sample plot,
plot, experi-
experi-
mental plot
plot and
and temporary
temporary plot
plot data
data an
on magnetic
magnetic tapes
tapes or
or discs.
discs. This
This data can be accessed
quickly for summarization
summarization and analysis. It can be subjected to automatic error
and analysis. error checking
checking
procedures to
to Din-point
pin-point doubtful measurements. It
doubtful measurements. It can be
be updated or corrected relatively
easily.

Computer infonnation storage (CIS)

ComDuter information (CIS) still
still requires
requires maintenance
maintenance ofa
ofa conventional
conventional filing
system on each permanent
pennanent plot or
or experiment,
experiment, inin which
>lhich original
original field
field sheets
sheets and
and any
any queries,
queries,
notes, diagrams and
and procedural
procedural orders
orders are
are kept.
kept.

Untill recently,
Un-tu recently, the
the capital
capital cost
cost of
of aa computer
computer system
system and
and thethe lack
lack of
of skilled
skilled person-
person-
nel inhibited the use ofof CIS. With the advent of of the microcomputer, costs costs have
have fallen
fallen
drastically and
drastically and are
are now
now of
of the
the same
same order
order as
as those
those for
for aa motor vehicle. r,acrocomputers
motor· vehicle. Microcomputers
usually operate
operate in BASIC, which is a language designed
designed for
for easy
easy learning.
learning. Anybody
Anybody with
with aa
suitably facile
suitably facile brain
brain can
can teach
teach themselves
themselves BASIC,
BASIC, given
given access
access to microcomputer. In
to aa microcomputer. In
addition, some forestry institutions offer specialized training in data processing processing for
for
graduate or technical
technical staff.1/

Lack of CIS is aa significant inhibiting

inhibiting factor
factor in
in the
the development
d evelopment andand validation
validation of of
and effective
yield models and effective yield
yield planning
planning and
and control.
control. With manual extraction
extraction of of data from
from
files, only the simplest
files, only simplest kinds
kinds of
of model
model can
can be
be constructed,
constructed , whilst
whilst validation
validation byby residual
residual
is nct
analysis is not possible
possible because
because of
of the
the stupendous
stupendous amount
amount ofof work
work involved.
involved. Nor is it pos-
is it
examine alternative
sible to examine alternative modelling
modelling strategies
strategies on
on the
the same data or
Bame data or to
to update
update the
the model
model
as new
functions as new data
data is
is collected.
collected.

Furthermore, the productivity of

Furthermore, of skilled staff using manual
manual procedures
procedures is
is extremely
low.
10>1. of adequate
Collection of adequate quantities
quantities of
of data
data tends
tends to
to be
be inhibited,
inhibited, because
because manual
manual pro-
pro-
simply unable
cedures are simply unable to
to cope
cope with
with it.
it.

It
It is
is strongly recommended that
that all
all forestry
forestry organizations
organizations should
should either:
either:

(a) Have access to a a large computer facility,

facility, with an
an absolute maximum
maximum job
job turn-
turn-
around of one
one day.
day. This
This job turnaround should be considered
considered from
from the
the time
time the
the
results
results are returned
returned and
and should take
take into consideration
consideration periods
periods of
of the
the month
month
when the main computer may totally unavailable
may be totally unavailable (due
(due to
to priority
priority allocation
allocation
of computer time to other
other users), transportation
transportation difficulties
difficulties toto or
or from
from the
the
canputer, etc ••
computer, etc..

or
Or

(b) Purchase a microcqnputer system with:

microcomputer system with:
- 32-64k bytes of
of memory
- or hard
Twin drive diskette or hard disc system
system
- A printer
A

1/
1/ E.g. The Commonwealth
Commonwealth Forestry
Forestry Institute
Institute at
at Oxford,
Oxford, U.K.
U.K.
 -34-
- 34 -

A teletype that can be interfaced to the computer,

A computer, with paper
paper tape
tape reader/
reader/
punch,
punch, for use in on or off-line data preparation
A
A BASIC or
or FORTRAN
FORTRAN compiler.
compiler.
This type of
of system
system would cost around S10
$10 000 in Europe or North
North America
America at
at
(mid-1979).
current prices (mid-1979).

Option (b)
(b) gives the forestry organization an in-house,
in-house, dedicated computer that
that is
is
likely to provide greater
greater productivity
productivity and
and more
more rapid
rapid personnel
personnel training
training than
than option
option (a).
(a).

4.2 DATA VALIDATION

VAlIDATION

in magnetically-stored
Errors arise in magnetically-stored data
data from
from the
the following
following sources:
sources:

(1) Field measurement errors

errOrs
(2) Data entry
entry or
or keypunching
keypunching errors
errors
(3) Programme errors.
errors.

The third type of

of error
error must be assumed to be eliminated by thorough testing of any
computer programmes used to store9
store, correct, update, print or
or select data.
data. The testing of
programmes is the responsibility
responsibility of
of the programmer?
programmer, Who
who is as directly responsible fOr
fbr the
errors
errors of
of his
his programmes
programmes as
as is
is the field
field worker who
Who fails
fails to make correct
correct measurements.
meaeurements.

Data entry or
or keypunching
keypunching errors
errors are largely eliminated
eliminated by the process of
of verifics.-
verifica-
!iE!:!,
tion, with any
which should always be used with any large
large mass of
of data. Verification involves
entering every item
item of data twice,
twice, by two different
different operators or in two separate runs.
runs. The
two data sets are then checked against each
each other,
other, automatically, and
and any
any inconsistencies
reported
reported to
to the operator,
operator, who can supply an appropriate correction.
correction. The actual
actual details
details of
the verification process will depend
depend on
on the
the data
data entry
entr,y system
system used.
used. Most data preparation
organizations
organizations will
will offer verification as a normal service and this should always be expli-
citly stipulated When
when submitting
submitting data
data for
for keypunching.
keypunching.

Field measurement errors

errors cannot
cannot be
be wholly
wholly eliminated,
eliminat ed, but they
they can
can be reduced:

(a) By attention to the training

training and
and morale of
of field
field workers
workers and
and by
by provision
provision of
of
suitable instruments for
for their
their use.
use.

(b) By running ~ checking

running data checking programmes
programnes an
on the
the magnetically
magnetically stored
stored data.
data. The data
checking is based an
on examination
examination for
for logical
logical inconsistences
inconsistences such
such as
as very
very large
large
or very
very small measurements,
measurements, negative increments inin diameter
diameter or
or height, missing
missing
tree numbers or
or tree numbers which
which have
have reappeared
reappeared. since
since aa previous
previous harvesting,
harvesting,
identification and
changes in species identification and so
so an.
on.

inconsistency is
Any such logical inconsistency is reported
reported by
by the
the data
data checking
checking programmes
programmes and
and must
must
examined to determine the likely source of the error.
be examined error. A A correction must then be
be supplied,
supplied,
using aa ~ editing programme, to
data editing to amend
amend the
the magnetically-stored
magnetically-stored data.
data.

The en-tire
entire process
process is
is an
an ongoing
angoing one,
one, as
as indicated diagrammatically
diagrammatically below.
 -35-
- 35 -

CoIl ect data in

Collect
the field
field

t
Keypunching
Keypunching
Return
Return to
to field
field
to determine true
t ~ supply ~ value
value

V
0fO t °
en ~ca l.on
Verification
:~:!~tions
corrections

Any errors?
Any errors ? ---Yes./"! "

st~rage
No
No

Data storage on
Data on ""
magnetic media
magnetic media ""
Is
Is correction
office
possible in the office
Programme checks
Any logical errors
errol'S ?? ----Yes
- _ Yes _ _ _ _ _ _ _--1
t
Any logical

No 1
Data ready for
for
analysis

4.3 CONl'RACTS FOR THE PREPARATION

CONTRACTS PREPARATION OF COMPUTER
COMPUTERPROGRATIMES
PROGRAMI>I:El3

Contracts for computer programme preparation should

Contracts should contain
contain claus es covering
clauses covering the
the
following conditions:
following conditions:

(i)
(i) provision by
Full provision by the
the contractor
contractor of
of source
soullCe listinos
listings (in
(in BASIC9
BASIC , FORTRAN
FORTRAN or other
other
language used) of
of any
any programmes written.
written.

(ii)
(ii) Full
Full documentation of
documentation of all
all programmes9
programmes, including:
including:

(a) A dictionary
A dictionary of
of meanings
meanings for
for identifiers
identifiers or
or variables
variables used in the
used in the programme.
programme.

(b) Flow diagrams indicating

Flow indicating the sequence of
of operation of any programmes
programmes or
subprogrammes
subprogrammes written by
by the contractor and
and the
the sequence
sequence and
and nature
nature of
of
data transfers from
from external
external media
media and
and magnetic
magnetic storage.
storage.

(c) aplicit
Explicit definition
definition of
of the record
record structure and usage of
of all magnetic files
and all input and
and output
output media.
media.

(d) Explanation of theory behind the programme method,

method, together with references
texts or
to texts or other
other background
backgro.md material.
material .

(iii)
(iii) Liability by the contractor for any progrmmne
programme errors or for any failure
failure of the
operate as
programmes to operate as specified
specified when
when used in accordance
used in accordance with
with the documentation.

(iv)
(iv) Instruction by the contractor of some member of the forestry organization staff
of the programmes9
in the use of programmes, up to
to the
the point where the programmes can
can be demon-
strated to operate
strated operate to the satisfacticn
satisfaction of
of the
the forest
forest management without
without any
any
supervision by contractor.
by the contractor.
 36 --
- 36
-

(v)
(v) copyright
Copyright over all supplied documentation, programmes and reports
reports to
to be
be vested
vested
organization.
in the forestry organization.

It may be possible
possible to
to reduce
reduce the
the cost
cost of
of aa contract
contract to
to some
sane degree
degree by
by relaxing
relaxing points
pointe
(iii)
(iii) and (v),
(v), but the other
other points should a lways be insisted on i f the programmes written
should always be insisted an if the programmes written
are to be of any
of any continuing
continuing use
use to
to the
the organization.
organization.

4.4 STORAGE SYSTEMS FOR PlOT

PLOT DATA

4.4.1
4.4.1 Introduction
Introduction

It
It is not
not the intention to provide detailed descriptions
descriptions of
of programmes
programmes for
for etoring
storing
summarizing permanent
and summarizing pennanent plot, experimental
experimental plot or
or temporary plot data.
data. These will proba-
proba-
bly vary a good
bly need to vary good deal according
according to the computing
canputing facilities available.
available. Only
Only the file
for input and output
structures for output and the types of functions the programmes can perfonn,
perform, will
be described
be described here.
here.

4.4.2
4.4.2 File Structures

file, in computing
A file, canputing terminology,
tenninology, consists of some of machin~readable
sane body of machine-readable infonna-..
informa,
tion on
on magnetic media (tape
(tape or
or disc) or
or on or paper tape.
on punched cards or tape. Input
Input fil es provide
files
data for a particular programme and
and may
may themselves be output
output files from another programme.
programme.

File structure defines,

defines, in the present context,
context, the organization
organization of the different
types of information
infonnation that must be grouped together to represent a single plot.
plot.

For pennanent plots, the basic information

permanent plots, infonnation an
on a single
single plot may be defined asfollows:
as follows:

initial assessment
- Plot initial assessment
1 st plot measurement
1st
2nd lt..
Repeat ed an
Repeated on the
tape/disc for
2nd
3rd
n
"
..
" ..
each plot
0
0
•
0
•
••
0
0
0
•
n'th plot measurement

End-of-plot record
--Ehd-of-plot

For temporary plots,

plots, the record
record structure is much
much simpler,
simpler, being
being only:
only:

Plot
Plot 1 assessment

Plot 22 ..
11

Plot 33 ..
11

•
•
•
•
•
•
assessment
Plot n assessment
 -

-- 37
37 -

record structures
These record structures relate
relate to
to the
the permanent
pennanent data
data base,
base, -which
which may
may be
be on
an either
either
magnetic tape
magnetic tape or
or disc.
disc. For input of data for pennanent
Por input permanent plots,
plots, two
two types
types of
of different
different input
input
may be possible:
may

(i) assessments
Initial assessments

(ii) Remeasurement data.

Remeasurement data.

In cas
case (i), aa new plot
e (i), plot would be created in the database,
database, but
but the
the programme
programme would
would
ne ed to check
need check that
that plot
plot identification
identification did
did not
not conflict
conflict with
with an
an existing
existing plot.
plot.

(ii) , an existing
In case (ii), exis ting plot
plot would have to be present (otherwise an
present (otherwise an error
error would
would be
be
report ed) , with
reported), with the
the new
new measurement
measurement being
being at
at the
the appropriate
appropriate point.
point.

Rxperimental could normally

Experimental plots could normally be
be treated
treated in
in the
the same
same way
way as
as permanent
pennanent plots.
pl ots.
HO\;ev er , related
However, r elated treatment
treatment plots would be placed adjacent
adj acent to each
each other
other on the ttape,
ape , for
example as
example as :

Treatment 1
{Tre7ent
Block 11
Block -

- Treatment
Treatment nn

{ Trea~ment
- Treatment 1

Block 22 -

Treatment n
-Treatment
•

{ Treatment
Treatment 1
m
Block m

Trealment
Treatment n

To retrieve all
all the data for the experiment
experiment from the tape,
tape , n x m
m plots
plots would be read
ffrom
rom the st a rting position on the tape (or
starting disc) or the first plot in
(or disc) in the
the experiment,
experiment .

. 4. 3
44.4.3 Error Checking and Editing Functions

The following error checks are required for

for pennanent information :
permanent plot information:

That
That the plot
plot exists on tape (if
(if aa new
new plot is system)
is not being added to the syst em)
or
or does
does not
not yet
yet exist (if aa new plot .!:.!!
exist (if is being aMed).
being added).

(2) That
That the remeasurement dates are
are in
in aa consistent
consistent and
and ascending
ascending sequence.
s equence.

(3) That
That trees which have been thinned (i.e.
(i . e . disappeared
disappeared in measurements)
in past measurement s) ddo
o
not
not reappear on
on later measurements.
measurements.

(4 ) That
That trees do not species (on
not change species (on mixed
mixed forest
forest plots only)
plots only or plot
) or plots do not
s do not
change species (on
(on plantation plots).
 - 38
- 38 -
-

(5) That
That diameter increments are
are positive
positive and
and not
not excesSively
excessively large.
large.

(6) Checking of the size ranges

ranges of
of parameters such
such as
as height,
height, diameter,
diameter, species
species
code, etc. for excessively
code, etc. excessively large
large or
or small
small values
values or
or unrecognised
unrecognised codes.
codes.

On temporary plots, only

only the checks
checks in
in the
the category are
6th category are possible.
possible.

Data should be added to the database even

even though
though it
it contains
contains errors;
errors; an editing
programme may
may then
then be
be used
used to
to manipulate
manipulate and
and amend
amend the
the magnetically-stored
magnetically-stored data.
data. With any
amount of
significant amount of data,
data, this
this is
is usually
usually much
much more
more convenient
convenient than
than attempting
attempting to
to correct
correct
the original
original punched
punched cards.
cards.

4.4.4
4.4.4 Plot Summaries

The plot
plot summary programme may incorporate
incorporate the
the error
error checking
checking procedures
procedures (or
(or they
they
may be in
may be in aa separate
separate programme).
programme) . Its
Its main
main function will
will be to produce summarized
summarized informa-
informa.-
relevant to
tion relevant to the
the particular
particular forest
forest type
type in
in question,
question, for
for use
use in fu~her analyses.
in further analyses . For
For
summaries may
plantations, the summaries may include
include plot mean and dominant
dominant height,
height, mean basal
basal area
area, stocking
diameter, basal area, stocking and
and volume.
volume. For mixed forest,
forest, the
the summaries
summaries will
will normally
normally
also include stand tables ofof selected
selected characteristics
characteristics by species and
by species and size
size classes.
classes.

The summary programme should

should be
be able
able to
to produce
produce its
its output
output both
both in
in aa printed
printed form,
fom,
>lith titling text to make it comprehensible
with comprehensible and in machine readable form, form, without
without text,
text, for
for
input to
direct input to data
data analysis
analysis programmes.
programmes. The machine readable outputoutput may be put onto
onto
magnetic tape
tape or
or disc
disc or
or punched
punched an
on paper
paper tape
tape or
or cards,
cards, as
as appropriate.
appropriate. If the output is is
onto magnetic tape,
tape, this should
should normally
normally be
be done
done in
in 'formatted' or character-encoded
1 formatted' or character-encoded form,
form,
in machine
rather than in machine binary
binary code.
code.

For mixed forests in particular,

particular, but
but also for plantations,
plantations, itit is
is useful
useful toto have
have aa
facility so that only selected
selected parts
parts of
of the
the output
output are
are printed
printed or
or placed
placed on
on tape.
t ape.

4.4.5
4.4.5 other Utilities
Other Utilities

will probably
Two other programmes will probably be
be needed
needed with
with aa sample
sample plot
plot data
data base:
base:

A sorting programme,
A programme, able to reorder the sequence of plots on tape so thatthat they
they
are grouped by forest, district,
district, species,
species, compartment,
comnartment, etc..
etc.. Norma1ly, plots will
Normally,plots wi1l
be entered
entered onto
onto the
the data
data base
base in
in an arbitrary order,.
an arbitrary order,. whereas
Whereas the
the summaries
summaries will
will
probably be preferred with
with some
some logical
logical sequence.
sequence.

characte~encoding programme,
Archival and character-encoding programme , to transfer
transfer the main data base on
on disc
or tape
tape into aa form
form suitable for archival (see
(Bee below)
below) or transfer to another
another
site. This
computer site. formatting, the entire
characte~encoding or formatting,
This will involve character-encoding
data base and writing
writing it
it anto
onto aa magnetic
magnetiC tape.
tape.

4.4.6
4.4.6 Data Base Security

A
A large data base stored onon disc or magnetic tape can readily
readily be destroyed by acci-
dents, or computer
dents, programme or computer failures.
failures. ItIt is
is essential therefore that
that after each addition
addition
of aa significant amOUJlt information, the entire
amount of information, entire data base is
is copied onto a spare
copied onto spare tape or
disc to give a complete
complete second
seccnd copy.
copy. These spare copies can be rotated,
rotated, so that
that at
at anyone
any one
time there is an up to
te date working version,
vereion, an up
up- to date archived
archived version and two or
or three
previous archived versions ofof the
the data
data base.
base.
 39 --
-- 39

4.5
4.5 TRANSFER BETWEEN
DATA TRANSFER BETWEEN COVPUTER SYSTEl~S
C(),PUTER SYSTEMS

The necessity frequently arises for

for transferring
transferring data
data between computer
computer systems,
systems,
either for cooperat ive research or to
cooperative to permit
permit research
research workers
workers from
from one
one organization
organization to
to study
study
elsewhere using
using their
their own
own data.
data.

of data
Large amounts of data are
are best
best transferred
transferred an
on industry-standard
industry-standard magnetic
m"8'1etic computer
computer
tapes. These may 9-track or
may be 9-track or 7-track
7-track tapes.
tapes. The following
following information
information should
should be
be ascer-
ascer-
tained when
tained when the
the tape
tape is
is written:
"Titten:

(7 or 9)
of tracks (7
The number of

density (usually
The density (usually 800
800 or
or 11 600 bits per
per inch)
inch)
The parity (even
(even or
or odd)
odd)
- inteI'-block gap
The inter-block gap in
in mm
mrn (or
(or failing
failing this
this the
the exact
exact mark
mark and
and manufacturer
manufacture; of
of
the tape drive mechanism).

Tapes for transfer between computers should always always bebe character-encoded
character-encoded or formatted
should preferably
and should preferably use
use fixed-length
fixed-length records
records of
of moderate size,
size, probably less
less than 120
characters per
per record,
record , to
to facilitate
facilitate reading
reading the
the tape.
tape. The type
type of
of characte:r-encoding
character-encoding used
used
(EGCDIC,
(EICDIC, ASCII,
ASCII, BCD,
BCD, etc.)
etc.) should
should be
be determined
determined ifif possible
possible but
but is
is not
not critical,
critical, as
as trans-
trans-
literation from
literation from one
one to
to the
the other
other is
is quite
quite simple.
simple. A first and last
A listing of the first last few
few
hundred lines
lines of
of the
the tape
tape should
should be
be sent
sent with
with it to help
h e lp check that
that when the tape is read,
is read?
nO
no records oror parts of
of records lost.
records have been lost.

Header labels
labels and tapemarks are generally a nuisance when reading strange tapes, tapes, so
iit
t is better
better to
to write
write the
the tape
tape as
as aa single
single file,
file, without
without aa tape
tape label
label at
at the
the start.
start. The
end of information
infonnation is
is normally
normally indicated
indicated byby aa double
double tape
tape mark.
mark.

Information concerning the mode

mode of the tape (tracks, density,
tape (tracks, density, parity,
parity, character
character code),
code),
of origin
the contents and the address of origin should
should be attached to the tape with a
a sticky label.
label.

can normally
Tapes can normally be
be sent
sent easily
easily through
through the
the post.
post. However, high frequency
However, frequency metal
metal
may erase
detectors may erase some
some or
or all
all the information
information an
an a tape.
tape. The
The parcel
parcel should
should therefore
therefore be
be
clearly marked and easily
easily opened
opened for
for visual
visual inspection.
inspection.
 40
- 40 -

5. ANALYSIS OF
ANALYSIS OF GROWTH
GROWTH AND
AND YIELD DATA FOR
YIDLD DATA FOR UNIFORM FOREST
UNIFORM FOREST

Unifom are those

Uniform forests are those in
in which
which the main crop
the main crop trees
trees are
are of
of aa known,
known, uniform
uniform age.
age.
They are usually composed
composed of
of a single species or a few ecologically similar
similar species.
species.
Uniform forests are,
are, by definition,
definition, managed under a clear felling system,
system, with
with or without
without
intermediate thinnings.
intermediate thinnings. Regeneration
Regeneration may
may be by planting,
be by planting, artificial
artificial or natural
natural seeding
seeding or
or
coppice.
from coppice.

In
In this
this type
type of
of situation,
situation, the
the main
main parameter"
parameters of of growth
growth and
and yield
yield prediction
prediction are
are
VIell understood. There is
well is a wide variety ofof possible models available.
available. The main
main limiting
factor on the effectiveness ofof a model is usually the availability of data for for the
the forests
forests
in question covering
covering aa wide
wide range
range of
of sites,
sites, ages
ages and
and stand
stand densities.
densities.

The gro,1th yield of

growth and yield of aa forest
forest can
can be
be modelled
modelled at
at three
three basic
basic levels.
levels. These are
These are
the whole stand, the
the size
size class
class and
and the
the individual
individual tree.
tree. For uniform forests,
forests, stand models
usually adequate
are usually adequate for
for most
most purposes.
purposes. Stand models are also very much simpler to both
both
and use.
construct and use. Consequently,
Consequently, this
this is the modelling strategy dealt
dealt with most
most fully;
fully; the
other section 5.7.
other two approaches are discussed briefly in section

single level
Even within this single level of
of stand
stand modelling,
modelling, there is a wide variety of choice
particular set
in the particular set of
of functions
functions to
to be
be incorporated
incorporated in
in the
the model.
model. Some
Some alternatives
alternatives are
are
nresented in
nresented in the
the different
different sections
sections which
Which follow,
follow, together
together with
with an
an attempt
attempt to
to define
define situa-
situa-
ti ons in which a particular method is most appropriate.
tions appropriate. Other alternatives have have been omitted
omitted
simpl:; hecause
simpi. of the
because of the need
need to
to keep
keep this
this manual
manual reasonably
reasonably concise.
concise.

On the Whole,
Whole, techniques
techni.ques are incorporated which are characterized by simplicity,
simplicity,
accuracy and
accuracy and flexibility.
flexibility.

particular aspect
Within a particular aspect of
of stand
stand modelling,
modelling, such
such as
as for
for example
example the
the production
production of
of
of basal area/height/stand
sets of area/height/stand density
density curves,
curves, an
an attempt
attempt has
has been
been made
made to
to include
include both
both
statistical methods
graphical methods and statistical methods of
of differing
differing degrees
degrees of
of complexity.
complexity.

5.1 CLASSIFICATION
SITE CLASSIFICATION

accuracy possible with

The relatively high accuracy with growth
growth and
and yield
yield models
models for
for uniform
uniform stands
stands
results partly from the precision with
with which
which it
it is
is possible
possible to
to classify
classify site.
site. This is
itself a result of the fact that age
age is
is normally
normally known
known from
from management
management records
records and
and height
height
of the dominant trees can usually
usually be
be measured
measured by hypsameters or
by hypsometers or similar
similar instruments.
instruments.

5.1.1 of Dominant Height as an Indicator of Site

Use of

The height
The height of
of aa uniform
uniform stand,
stand, at
at aa given
given age,
age, is
is aa good
good indicator
indicator of
of the
the potential
potential
p r oduct ivity of
productivity of that
that type
type of
of forest
forest on
on that
that particular
particular site.
site. Hence the construction of
height/age curves
height/age curves corresponding
corresponding to to different
different site
site classes is the first
first step
st·ep in growth and
and
yield model construction.
yield construction.

However,
However, the mean height of a stand is usually sensitive not
not only to age
age and
and site
site
also to
class, but also to stand
stand density.
density. Consequently,
Consequently, dominant
dominant height is normally used inin defining
defining
height of
the height of aa stand.
stand. Dominant height is
is almost
almost entirely
entirely insensitive
insensitive to
to stand
stand density
density
differences.
 -- 41
41 --

Daninant
Dominant height can be defined in
in various
various ways,
ways, but
but the
the definition
definition with the
the widest
currency is that the dominant height
height of aa stand is the mean height of of the
the 100
100 thickest
thickest
s t ems per
stems per hectare.
hectare. Dominant
Daninant height is also
also sometimes
sometimes termed'top
termed'top height'.
height'.

Under some circumstances encountered in uniform forestsforests in the tropics,

tropics, dominant
&eminent
height ceases toto be
be aa good
good indicator
indicator ofof site
site class.
class. This occurs
occurs with
with young
young stands of VB1~·
stands of very
grot-ling crops and also with certain species which are notoriously variable in
fast growing
fast in their
t heir
height growth, such
such as
as Pinus
Pinus caribaea.
caribaea. This situation can be detected by by ranking permhlJer-.t
permanent
olot data
plot data byby height
height within
within each
each age
age class.
class. If the rank position of plots anon successive
succes.ive
occasions is poorly
poorly correlated,
correlated, then anyany site
site class CU~Jes constructed must be considered
class curves
of
of doubtful value.
value .

The problem arises simplysimply because of the great variability of height growth,
gl"oNth, relative
relativ e
to the effect
effect ofof site,
site, on on these
these types
types of
of stands.
stands. It
It could be
be partly overccme
overcome by aa redefini-
r-ede fi ni-
tion of
of dominant
dcminant height r~quire a larger
heig..llt to require larger sample
sample of
of height trees per plot, e.g.e.g. equivalent
equivalent
to 200 or
or 400 stems/ha. lin
1\-00 stems/ha. An alternative idea is to correlate final
final productivity with ~nvi·­
l-rl:t h envi-
ronrnental variables and use aa site
ronmental site classificaticn
classification based
based purely on
on slope,
slope, altitude,
al t itude 9 soilsoil type
typ e
or other factors which
which appear
appear to
to be
be significant.
significant.

5.1.2 Construction of Site Index

Index Curves
Curves

index relationship
The height-age-site index relationship is
is basic
basic to
to uniform f vr ~' .:;~.; growth
unifonn forest p ....~td1.cti o.:L
ts."'l'owt h psedietioh.
relationship is
The relationship is usually
usually referred
referred to
to simply
simply as
as the
the site
si-; e indelc
inde::.c CUl"ves
curves for for a.a sp eci es in
species in aa
given environment .
given environment.

sit e index curves may be

Construction of site he by graphical methods or
by graphical or by regression
rGgressi cri
analysis.

5.1.2.1 Graphical methods

Gra.hical methods of construction

Graphical methods of
of construction proceed
proceed. as
as follows:
follows:

1. Plot all available

a'Tailable height-age data
data for
for stands
stands of the speW.es
of the ~.n question.
sp €G:.es in qlH:st i on G
Daninant height should be used,
Dominant mean height,
used, not mean height, as it is
as it is much mol'~! indepuldent
much more inder .';llde..."1t
of variations inin stand
stand density.
density. Both
Both temporary
temporary and
and permanent
peman "nt plo-,
plotss may
ma y be in-
cluded on
cluded on the
the graph.
graph. With pennanent
permanent plots,
plots, the
the points
points from
from succ6ss i"f e J:"Sllea
successive sure-
remeasure-
should be
ments should be joined
,joined with
with straight
straight lines.
lines. This
This stage
stage is
is illustrated
illustrated in in figure
figure
5.1,
5.1, which shows
shows data from
from Pinus patula stands in
patula stands in Uganda.
Uganda.

2. by hand through
Next draw curves by through the
the data.
data. These should
should attempt
attempt to
to foll oll tthe
follow he
trends of:
of:

(0
(i) on the
The plots on the lower
lower edge
edge of
of the
the mass
mass of
of data;
data;

(u) tendency through

The median tendency through the
the data;
data;

(iii) The upper edge

edge of
of the data.

In each case the curves

curves should follow as parallel
parallel as
as possible
possible to
to the
the tendencies
tendencies
of
of pemanent
permanent sample plots onon that part of
of the
the graph.
graph. The drawing of
of these three
is shown
curves is shown in
in figure
figure 5.2.
5.2.
 Figure 5.1
Figure 5.1

DATA FROM
DATA PEmWlENTAND
FM PERMANENT ANDTEMPORARY
TUlPORARY SAMPLE
SfJ-lPlE PLOTS
PLCTS READY
READY FOR
FOR
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTIONOFOF SITE INDEX CURVES
SITE INDEX CURVES
35 -
+

30 +
~
+
-5
1: + +
:t
-sp

+
....""
1l
CD 25 t +
+*
~
+
+
.;l +
B 20 1-
A +
+ ....
f\)
+ ++

15

10

s5

o
o __ .1

o
0 2
2 4 6 86 10 12 14 16
16 18
18 20 22 24 26 28
26 30

~ (years)
Age
 Figure
Figure 5.2
5.2

HAND-DRAWN SITE
HANDDRAWN INDEK CURVES
SITE INDEC CURVES SKEIC
SKETCHEM
HED THROUGH
'!'"dROUGR THE DATA TO
THE DATA REPRESENT
TO REPRESENT
THE NMINIMUN,
ININUN 9 J·l
r. EDIAN
IIDI AN AND
A NDJ.IAXTIHlt'i TRENDS
NAXIMIII TRENDS

35

~
30 ~ ~+
E
~
~
+
~ t +
fo
Qj 25 +
.<:
+
§ +
.,..s:: +
B 20 +
I=l + .,.w

15

10

o 1 L __

o ;' 4 6 8
8 10
10 12
12 14 16
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Age
Age (years
(years))
 Figure
F'igu r e 5.3

TRACING
TRACING OF
OF THE
THE THREE
THREEHAI r SI
MAIN TE INDEX
SITE niDE:< CURVES
CURVES KITH
WITH TWO
TWOIINTERPOLATED
NTERPOLATED
INTERMEDIATE CURVES ADDED
INTEZIEDIATE CURVES ADDED AND
AND FACH
EACH CURVE
CURVEASSI GNED AA SITE
ASSIGNED CLASS
SITE CLASS

35 -
Site Class
r
30
~

-5
i... 25 ..... - - - _1I
~1lI

'"
--
Q)
.<:

~.::
...
0
~
20
/'
/

..... - - ~y
-N'

..,.
..,.
15
# I -'
-- ~
I

10

,
5

o __ L _ -.t __ l _____ ._L __

o 2 4 6 86 lo
10 12
12 14 16 18
16 20 22
I 24
24 26 26 30

Age
Age (years)
 - 45 -

When data is
When all of the data is from
from temporary
temporary plots,the
plots, the same
same methodcan
method can be
be applied,
applied, but
but
there
there is
is "a possibility of considerable
considerable error
error due
due to
to the
the fact
fact that
that the
the plots
plots at
at
different
different ages may not be equally
equally representative
representative of
of different
different sites.
sites.

3. Two
Two additional curves can now be interpolated between
between the
the upper
upper and
and central
central
curves
curves and lower and central curves. The system can then be traced onto a
separate piece of paper, giving the result shown
shown in
in figure
figure 5.3.
5.3.

4. The curve system can be described as

as an
an equation
equation using
using the
the methods
methods described
described in
in
Appendix A.1. The curves themselves are usually
Appendix A.1. usually numbered sequentially
sequentially and
and
referred to as site class curves
curves (or
(or sometimes
sometimes yield
yield class,
class, production
production class,
class,
etc.). Thus
Thus in
in figure
figure 5.3 the site classes are
are numbered from
from II (most
(most productive)
productive)
to
to V (least
(least productive).

The simplicity of this

simplicity of this technique
technique of
of constructing
constructing site
site index
index curves
curves by
by graphical
graphical
is obvious. It
methods is ddvious. It has three significant
significant disadvantages:
disadvantages:

(i) tc aa great
The curves produced depend tc great extent
extent upon the judgement
judgement of the person
doing the work,
work, especially
e"pecially if the data is
is sparse or largely
largely from
from temporary
temporary plots
plots..
Different people will
will produce
produce different
different sets
aeta of
of curves,
curves, which
which may
may be
be more
more or
or less
leaa
accurate and unbiased in
in representing
representing the
the real
real trend.
trend.

(ii) When
When there is
is aa large amount
amount of data and it
it is
is already stored
stored in
in aa form
form acceptable
acceptable
computer (e.g.
to a computer (e.g. on
on 80 column Hollerith cards
carda or on magnetic
magnetic tape),
tape), then
then this
ia a very slow
is slow method compared to statistical techniques which can can be
be carried out
by computer.
by computer.

(iii) When stage 4 above, of

of describing the curve system as as an eauation
equation isis required
(as
(as when
when the
the curves are to be used within an inventory
inventory oror growth
growth projection
prOjection
progranune), the work
programme), then the work involved
involved in
in this
this step
step alone
alone may
may be
be as
as great
great as
as the
the
entire task of fitting the curves
curves directly
directly by
by one
one of
of the
the statistical
statistical techniques.
techniques.

5.1.2.2.
5.1.2.2. Mathematical methods of
of fittin
fitting site index
index curves
curves

1·;athematical techniques
Tathematical techniques of
of fitting
fitting site
site index
index curvas
curves have
have considerable
considerable advantages
over graphical
graphical methods
methods when a computer is available and the amount
amount of data
data is
is large.
large. However,
However,
it should not
not be assumed that the results
results of
of these techniques are necessarilz
necessarily more
more accurate
than
than hand-drawn curves; this will depend very much an
handdrawn curves; on the correctness of the height
height growth
chosen and the
model chosen the validity
validity of
of the
the statistical
statistical assumptions
assumptions used
used in
in the
the fitting
fitting of
of the
parameters of
parameters of the
the model.
model. Mathematical
Mathematical techniques
techniques can
can be
be classified
classified into
into four
four groups
groups in
in the
following way:
following way:

,
temporary plot
temporary plot plot
permanent plat -

data data
data
I
IE
proportional rninimurn-
minimum nested multiple
multiple
curves
curves maximum regression
regression regression
regression
method
method without
without with 1:
with pri ori
a priori
site index
site index site index
site index
 - 46 -

methods, nested regression is statistically the

Of these four methods, the most
most appropriate
appropriate and
and
amenable to
is also amenable to manual
manual calculation.
calculation. Consequently examine this technique
Consequently we shall examine technique in
in
detail, discussing
most detail, discussing the
the other
other methods
methods somewhat
somewhat more
more briefly.
briefly.

four methods can be related to aa single model of height

All four height growth,
growth, Which
which is
is the
the
equation
Schmnacher equation
Schumacher 1/:
Ho = Hmax.exp(b/Ak)

dominant height,
where Ho is dominant ~ax is a
height, Hm a parameter to be fitted
fitted and
and represents
represents the
the maximum
maximum
the species
height the species could
could reach,
reach, exp(
exp( )) is
is the mathematical notation to indicate that the
expression in the bracket is a constant e = 2.71828
a power of the constant 2.71828 (i.e. e 2 ),
(i.e. exp(2) means e2)
and kk are
b and are parameters
parameters to
to be
be fitted
fitted and
and AA is
is the
the age
age of
of the
the stand.
stand.

given by this equation

The shapes given equation are illustrated
illuetrated in figure 5.4.
in figure By taking
By taking logarithms
logarithms
to the base (In) of
base ee (1n) of both
both sides
sides of
of equation
equation (1),
(1) , one
one gets:
gets:

in H0 = ln Hm + b/Ak -(2)
f "e
IIf we let a = In ~ax , then
in Hmax7 then aa and
and bb can
can be
be fitted
fitted byby linear
linear regression,
regression, provided
provided kk is
is known.
known.
Appropriate values ofof k for most
m9st species lie between 0.2 and 22 and can be estimated by
techniques described later
later in this section
section oror by
by nonlinear
nonlinear estimation
estimation as described in
Appendix
Appendix A.4. specie~, an assumed
A.4. For many specieS, assumed value of kk =~ 11 will
value of will give
give aa satisfactory
satisfactory fit.
fit.
The bh parameter
parameter in
in equation
equation (2)
(2) should
should always
always be
be negative;
negative; if it it is not,
not, check calculations
errors. The aa parameter will normally be between 2 and 7;
for errors. 7; again,
again, check for errors iif f
there is large
large divergence
divergence from
from this.
this.

For
For proportional curves fit
fit equation
equation (2) to the
the set
set of
of temporary
temporary sample
sample plot
plot data
data as
as
aa whole by linear regression,
regression, with the dependent variable YY as in
In Ho and the predictor
Predictor
varia'n
variablele XX as
as 1/Ak.
l/Ak. IIf
f k
k is
is not
not known,
known, follow the suggestions
suggestions in Appendix A.4 to determine
it.
it.

This gives the average height growth trend,

This gives trend, assuming that in each age class,
class, all
sites
sites have an equal likelihood of being represented.
represented. If it
it is
is known that,
that, for example,
example,
older age c1asses
classes fall on
an poorer sites and younger ones on
ones an the best sites, then do not use
this method.
method. Either construct
construct hand-drawn or, if PSP data is available,
hand,drawn curves or, available, use nested
regression.
regression.

Once the mean height growth

growth curve
curve has
has been
been fitted,
fitted, curves
curves of
of the
the same
same shape
shape can
can be
be
drawn to pass through
through different site
site index values. If the site index SS is
index values. is defined as
as the
the
dominant height of
of the stand
stand at an
an index
index age At, then
age Ai, then the
the aa parameter
parameter for
for the
the curve
curve to
to pass
pass
through a; is
through this site index, ai is given
given by:

a;
ai == ln S
In S - b/~ (3)
-(3)

where bb and k are from the average

average curve.
curve.

11
1/ Schumacher, 1939 A new growth curve and its application
Schumacher, F.X., 1939 application to timber
timber yield
yield studies.
studies.
J.
J. Forestry
Forestry 37:819-820.
 -- 47
4'1 --

Figure
Dfi. ure_ 5.4

(a)
(,,) Gap
Graphh of
of the a~log(Hmax),
.ac1er equation with a=1
Sc:huli1acher oon k~l
Hmax ) k=1,
Hmax
Fimax and different
and different valuns
valuns of
of bb b

55
10
10

20

o 10
10 20 30 50
50
Age (years
Age (years))

(b) Graph of the

Graph theSchumacher
Schumacherecmion withwi.a=1
equation og (Hmax )2 b=5
th a=log(Hmax), b=5
Hmax and different
and different values
values of
of kk k

0.67

0.5

o 10 20 30 40
110 40o
Age (years)
Age (years)
 48 --
-- 48

The muumum-maximum method is

minimum-maximum method is more
more flexible
flexible in
in the
the type
type of
of curve
curve shapes
shapes that
that result
result
than the proportional curve method,
Proportional curve method, · but
but it
it requires
requires multiple observations
observations in
in each age
age class
class
(at
(at least 3),
), and
and hence
hence cannot
cannot be used with limited amounts of of data.
data. The
The process
process proceeds
proceeds
as
as follows:

(1) In each age class, calculate

calculate the mean
mean Ho
Ho for
for all
all plots
plots and
and the
the minimum
minimum and
and
maximum values of
of Ho.
Ho.

(2) Fit three separate

separate regressions
regressions of
of the
the type
type shown
shown in
in equation
equation (2)
(2) to
to the
the maximum,
maximum,
minimum and mean
mean sets
sets of
of observations.
observations. The
The nonlinear
nonlinear kk parameter can be
parameter can assumed
be assumed
for all
as a constant for all three
three sets
sets or
or it
it can
can be
be fitted
fitted independently.
independently.

(3) As
As a final
final step,
step, the separate
separate coefficients for each
each of
of the
the three
three lines
lines can,
can, ifif
desired, be harmonized
harmonized to
to give
give aa single
single equation,
equation, using
using the
the methods
methods given
given in
in
App endix A.1.
Appendix A. 1 •

A
A more complex
canplex variation on this
this method is justified with large
large amounts
amounts of data
data in
in
each age class, as might be
be obtained
obtained from
fran aa forest
forest inventory.
inventory. The
The height observations in
height Observations in
each class
class are sorted into order,
order, from
from maximum to minimum and each point
point is
is assigned
assigned aa site
site
class SS from:

sS = (i t ) / n
(i- *)/
where ii is
where is the
the plot's
plot's position
position after
after sorting
sorting and
and nn is
is the
the number
number of
of plots
plots in
in the
the age
age class.
class .
Once the Plots
plots have been assigned a site
site class, then the analysis can proceed using multiple
as in
regression as in the
the last
last method
method described
described below.
below.

It should bbee thoroughly appreciated that the above methods for use with temporary
It
sample plot data
dat a should be regarded as producing
producing results that are anly
only of provisional
as they
usefulness, as they depend
depend critically
critically upon
upon the
the assumption
assumption that
that all
all sites
sites have an equal
have an equal like-
like-
of being
lihood of being represented
represented in
in each
each age
age class.
class.

This i s rarely the case in reality and hence the curves

This is "Till be
produced will be in
in some
some
degree defective.
defective. The only solution is to obtain recurrent height-age data from
fran permanent
permanent
plots or
or stem
stem analysis
analysis trees,
trees, which
which can
can be
be analysed
analysed by
by ane
one of
of the
the following
following methods.
methods.

Nested regression methods are

are of
of two
two types.
types. There is first
first of all the use of condi-
tional (or
(or zero-one)
zero-one) variables in
in multiple
multiple regression,
regression, as
as described
described in
in the
the example
example in
in
Appendix 2.1 0. Tbis
Appendix 2.10. This method has not, to the author's knowledge, been used in in site
site index
index
c onstruction, probably
curve construction, probably because
because with
with any
any realistic
realistic number
number of
of plots,
plots, the
the number
number of
of
involved in
variables involved in the
the regression
regression would
would be enonnouB; but the
be enormous; the approach
approach is
is by no means
by no
infeasible, given
given aa specially
specially adapted
adapted programme
programme toto genera-te
generate and handle the many
many zero-one
zero-one
variables. The second method, first
variables. first described
described byby Bailey 11
Clutter 1/ involves
Bailey && Clutter involves the
the use
use of
of
common slope
the common slope and
and common intercept estimators
CQ'nffion intercept estimators from
fran covariance
covariance analysis.
analysis. This method
method is
is
suited to
well suited to site
site index
index curve
curve construction
construction and
and is
is sufficiently
sufficiently simple
simple to
to make
make manual
manual
calculation of
of the parameters possible.

11
1/ Bailey, R.L. and
Bailey, Rol,. J.L., 1974 Base-Age
and Clutter, J.L., Base-Age Invariant
Invariant Polymorphic
Polymorphic Site
Site Ourves.
Curves.
Forest Science 20:155-59
 - 49
49-

c omm on slope
The common figure 5.5(a)
s lope regression model is depicted in figure 5.5(a) and is given by the
equat i on:
equation:

Y.= ~+bX
y = al.+b X -(4)
(4)

a i is
where al is different
different for
for each
each plot,
plot, but
but bb (the
(the slope)
slope) is
is the
the same
same for
for all
all plots.
plots. common
The common
intercept model
intercept model is
is shown
shown in
in figure
figure 4.5(b)
4.5(b) and
and is
is represented
represented byby the
the equation:
equation:

Y == a + b
bi
.
i X -(5)
(5)

where the intercept

i ntercept aa is
is the
the same
same for
for all
all plots,
plots, but
but the
the slopes
slopes bi differ. In terms
bi differ. terms of the
Schumach er equation,
Schumacher equation, either
eithermodel
modelcan
canbebeused,
used,with
withY Yasas
in ln
HoHo and
and X as
X as l/Ak • The common
1/,eJc.
s lope mod
slope el corresponds
model corresponds in shape to sets of of proportional curves,
curves, but
but there
there is
is an
an important
distinction between
b etween this approach and that for temporary plots, plots, in that
that the
the distribution
distribution of
in the different
sites in different age
age classes
classes has
has no
no effect
effect an
on this
this method.
method.

Figure 5.5

RIDRESSIOm WITH
REGRESSIONS WI'll! commoN
COMMON SLOPES
SLOPES OR
OR CO!!J>!ON INTERCEPTS
COMON INTERCEPTS

(a)
(a) Canrnon for four
Common slope regressions for four plots
plots
y
Y

x
(b) Canmon
Common intercept regressions for three
three plots
plots
yY

x
 -50-
- 50-

estimators for the common

The statistical estimators conunon slope and common
conunon intercept
intercept models
models are
are as
as
follows:

.fli ni ni
I(E X. ..Y..-E
12 12 . 12 X,..E Y.3../n.)
2 .
The comnon
conunon slope b =
= --(6)
(6 )

ikEkx.$)/ni)
milli
- Xi 2
ni-

ni m ni
• ni n4
Dot ni 2
ni
E z Y.
i
I (I x.j.f.x. .r. ./E X. .')
- I (l: Xij.I Xl.' :'!Ii ./I X . . )
j j J J j 1J
The common
conunon intercept
intercept aa ~
= _(7)
M
I((z1x. )v,..6x .2)
n 714

j j iJ

(although in concept they are quite simple)

As these formulae appear rather complex (although
some calculation pm
sane pro formes
fomas are provided with a worked example.
example. These are form 5.1,
fom 5. 1 , parts
11 and 2. Part
and 2. Part 11 carries out
out the
the within-plot summations, corresponding
withinplot summations, to the E for the jj
corresponding to
from 11 to ni in the above formulae,
subscript from fomulae, whilst
whilst part 2 of
of the form
fom carries out
out the
between-plot summations, corresponding
betweenplot summations, to 2
corresponding to:E for i
i from
fran 1 to m
m in
in the formulae.
fonnulae.

The example uses the data shown in figure 5.6 5.6,, from
fran 66 permanent sample plots
plots in
lusi tanica stands
Cupressus lusitanica stands in
in Kenya.
Kenya. A A kk parameter
parameter value
value ofof 11 is assumed for illustration
illustration
purposes. The height-age data are
heightage data are transcribed
transcribed into first
into the first two columns
columns of
of part
part 11 of form
5.1. Two sheets of of this form
fom are
are necessary
necessa!';Y for the
the six
six plots.
plots . The transformed
transfomed X X and Y Y
entered in
values are entered in columns
columns 3 and 4 4.. X2 is entered
entered in column 5 and X
in column X times YY in column
column 6.6.
Calculations should be carried out to at least four significant digits. The totals for for
each plot
plot (within-plot totals) for
(withinplot totals) for columns 3 to 66 are
are entered
entered inin the
the appropriate
appropriate line.
line. The
number of points in in each
each plot
plot is
is also
also entered.
entered. One then turns to part 22 of fom 5.1
of form 5. 1 to
continue the calculations. For each plot, plot, the various
various within-plot totals (EX,
withinplot totals ~Y, 2X2
(EX, ZY, ~X2 and
and
EXY) and the
EXY) and the number
number of
of points
points nn are
are combined
canbined according to the formulae
fomulae shown
shown at
at the
the top
top of
of
the columns of of part
part 2.
2. These figures
figures are
are then
then totalled
totalled between-plots
betweenplots to to give
give the
the items
items
(1) to (6)
marked (1) (6) at the
the bottom.
bottan. Finally the common slope and common canmon intercept coefficients
shown in
are calculated as shown in the
the last
last two
two lines.
lines.

The final reault

result inin this numerical example
example is
is that
that the
the common
conunon slope
slope coefficient
coefficient isis
-9.222, whilst
9.222, whilst the
the common
common intercept
intercept coefficient
coefficient isis 3.583. If either of these models is is
plotted as
plotted as aa set
set of
of site
"ite index
index curves,
curves, they
they will
will be
be found
found to
to bend
bend over
over much
much more
more sharply
sharply
is indicated
than is indicated byby the
the data
data in figure 5.6.
in figure 5 .6. This arises because the assumed value of k
is
is much too large for this set set of
of data.
data.

Bailey &
& Clutter,
Clutter, in the paper referred to earlier,
earlier, show
show how
how it is possible to
it is to
calculate the nonlinear coefficient directly
nonlinear k coefficient directly using
using aa regression
regression model
model containing
containing this
this
coefficient in linear
linear form,
fom, provided
provided that remeasurement
remeasurement data
data (from
(fran PSPs
PSPs or stem analysis)
so that height
is available so height increment
increment can
can be
be estimated.
estimated. The method is is as
as follows:
follows:
 -- 51
51 --

1. Calculate a set ofof transformed

transfonned YY values
values for
for the
the 2nd, 3rd, etc.
2nd, 1rd, etc. Observations
observations
wi thin a plot, from
within from the
the formula:
formula:

. in f rii-Hii-11 Al )

L A A -
I

There is no Y
Y value corresponding
correspcnding to
to the
the first
first height
height Observation.
observation.

2. Calculate a corresponding
corresponding set
set of transfonned XX values
of transformed values from
from the
the formula:
fonrrula:

X.. ln(2/(Aij+A1i_1))
2.3

3. estimator using form

Fit a common slope estimator 5.1 or equation
fonn 5.1 (6) using
equation (6) using these
these trans-
trans-
formed X and YY values. Note that if form 5.1 is used,
fonned only the first two
used, anly
(1) and
columns and totals (1) (2) are
and (2) are required
required on
on part 2.
part 2.

4. Subtract 11 from the common

common slope
slope estimator
estimator obtained.
obtained. The result
result is
is the
the estimate
of k required.
required.

When using manual 5.2 can be used to carry out

manual calculation, form 5,2 out the
the transformations
transformations
steps 11 and
in steps and 22 above.
above. It
It has been completed for the first plot in the
the example
example data
data to
to
illustrate the
illustrate the usage.
usage.

The formulae for the common slope and common intercept

intercept estimators,
estimators, together
together with
with the
the
transformation technique
transformation technique for
for estimating
estimating the
the k parameter, can
can easily
easily be programmed for small
computers or
or programmable
programmable calculators.
calculators. Any programmable calculator
calculator with
with at least 15 data
at least
registers and 200 programme
programme steps
steps should
should be
be adequate.
adequate.

When kk parameter is fitted in this >

way figure 5.6,
...y to the data in figure 5.6, the
the following
following
are obtained:
values are obtained:
k ~= 0.25
0.25
bb = -6.638 6.638
(common slope model)
a
a = 6.311
= 6.111 (common intercept model)
(camnon

UES examine the construction

Let us construction of
of aa set
set of
of site
site indexcurves
index curves from
from these
these results,
results,
camnon intercept
using the common intercept modela
model.

have:
We have:
25
in H
In Ho o
=
= 6.311
6.311 ++ b.!AO.
bi/A°°25
~
-(8)
-(8)

The parameter bi
b i depends
depends upon
upon si-te
site index
index SS.
. index
For a selected site index, at index
age Ai:
age A.:

in S = 6.311 4- bi/Ai

0.25
~. b. =( ( nn SS - 6.311).Ai0.25
6.311 ) .~
~
 -
- 52
52 -
-

If we wish
wish to
to plot curves
curves for
for site
site indices 169 189
indioes 16, 18, 209
20, 229
22, 249
24, 26 using
using an index ege
age
of 20 years,
years, we have:

S bi

16 -7.483
7.483
18 7.234
-7.234
20 7.011
-7.011
22 6.809
-6.809
24 6.625
-6.6 25
26
26 6.456
-6.456

(8)9 substituting
Then from equation (8), substituting bii for each site index curve,
the b curve, values of Ho
can be calculated for selected
selected values
values of A.
of A. The curves that result from
that result from the
the above
above parameter
parameter
5.79
values are shown in figure 5.7, on the sarne
same scale as is used for the data in figure 5.6.

one wishes to
If ane to calculate
calculate the
the site
site index
index of
of aa stand,
stand, given
given its
its age
ege and
and dominant
dominant
height, then use the formula:
height, formula:

in S = a + (ln Ho a).(A/A0k -(9)

For example,
example, for the parameter values for aa and kk given above,
above, suppose
auppose we
we have
have aa
stand of 14.5 m 11.5 years.
m at 11.5 years. Then the
the estimated
estimated si-te
Bite index
index is given by:

In SS
in = 6.311 + (In
6.311 6.311).(11.5/20)0.25
(in 14.5 - 6.311).(11.5/20)°.25

= 3.144
•
:.
•• sS = 23.2

Hence we can say that

that the sit
sitee index of this stand is 23 m.
m.

When the common slope model

model is used,
used, instead of the common intercept
intercept model,
model, then
then the
the
basic equation
equation is:
is:

In Ho
ln H . = ai
a. + b/Ak
+ b/Ak -(10)
o 1

with a. being
wtth ,a. being dependent on si-te
dependent on site index as:
index as:
1
/ k
ai = In S -(11 )

with site index

index for
for aa selected
selected height-age observation being
heightage observation being given
given by:
by:
/ / lc%
S
n S = ln
Ho
+ bk1/Ak 1/A ) -(12)
 - 53
- 53 --

Form
o rm 5".1 rCommgn
m n s]ove common intercept
Ose and common
. regression
nterce _t re ession mOdels
models
s

Part 1 Plot data

data summarization. as many part
smmarization. Use as part 1 sheets
sheets
as necessary for all
as all plots.
plots.
Data transformations used:
used X ==
X / // Aqc
A....
--~~~--------------
Y
Y =
= LocrE II~";HT
Loc;- E /./E/ger
-...=44-SISIMI-V--=,..-L2,-._.-._.1
'Plot
lot 5:3 - =i3.112111,---M- V L Pe

Raw data
Raw data Transformed data
Transformed
A H X
X Y
Y
x2
X2 XY
ifY _ _

G.~
. #.; 9.6
'l.b 0.144013
0.14'\ 3. 22.26'2
. 2.,'i o.c.2.22-8
o.o:u.Lli' o. 33
a. ~!.7(c5
"1e..
7. ' 11.0
1/.0 o. (3 I 6
O.llll. 2.3111
2."3'1'1 0. of-1S 1
0.0"31 Q.!
o· ~ II5
'"~
10. ,
104 /t,.. 'i!
/4--g 0.094-3
O.oq~~4- .2.{"~6
2.694-6 0 ·00f/10
o-OORTO 0.2542
o·.2S ~2..

/1.6
1/.' ':>.2-
/ .2 0.08'624
0.08'2.1 2.72.13
2.12.13 o . 00-14-1
0.00 71j.! o. 2.3
O. 2.llj.~
Li- (..

12.6,
/2..b /4-3
Ib.3 0.01937
0.01'131 2.19 t 2.
2·1'112- 0.00630
0.00630 o. :l.ll.1 .5
13.5 11.5
1-7..6 o.o/lj.Ol
0.01Lp:,7 2.E.62.2
2..Sb:2.2. o . oo~4-~
0.005'4-9 (:).z.racp
0·2.12.0
14.'+
11.1..4 (s.3
(7.3 ô.06/
0·06'1 4- 4- 2.4,4r
2.<to l:'t o0.· 00142-
004&2- 0.2-019
O.UlI~

'7
3

Totals n7
_.......
0.6% 4.3
o. {,! 4-3 is.
13 .63513
(;358 00,011s3
. 012.S3 L173
1.-,,73
e
Plot 36.
3{;"

Raw data
Raw data Transformed dato.
dat a.
.q H X Y
Y X2
X2 XY
6.7 8. f /) . 14'13, 2.0119
:z.o'll'l o.0222-3
0.0222.8 0.312..2..
0·0.12.2-
'l.S 10.7 0.111/0 2..I702
2·3102- 0.o in t.t.
0.01384 0. 2-7 89
0.!!..18'!
9.5 10. 'if 0.IO~3 0.01108
.2-37%
0.01108
2..31'15 02. 0S
0 . .2.!O.o5
10.b 12·5 2..525-7 0.00830
0 .0'143 .. :t.525r 0.008'10 o. 2.3'83
0·2.3S3-
I2.
12.' 14..3
14-.3 OO7P37 2.6603
0.01'137 .2.6b03 0.00 630
0.00'30 0.2- Is 1
a.2-II(
13.Ç
13.5 1Ç.Z
15.2- 0 .07 2.12- S
7 401 2.72..13 0.00549
0 · 00'>'+9 0·2.0 I b
/4.4
11f·4- /6.5
1,.5 00.069(4-tt. 2.S0314-
.06'14-"- 2.80 3 If. 0.00
0 .0 0u-g2-
... 82- 0. 1?
o. ?41
1~~1 1

Totals nn 7
Tcrbals 1 0.639 (.4-
0.68'1 lj. I7- 0.0'2',
Il. S-52.3
S"S".2!. o.o-i 2., I 1.6.,g-72..
/. b8"1.2..

Plot 36
~lot
----------------- .

3'
Raw data
Raw data rransformed
Transformed data
A
A 1-1
(.4 X
V'
4,4 V
Y X2
X2 XY
6·7
6.7 \?'l gl o. I 4-'1 !.
0- 14-9S .t.ISbl
A. IS (51 o.022.21
0 . 0.2.2.2.11 0.32
o. "32- 63
7.1" ".1 a. ill 6
O.I"!>,b ~.If.O
.2..4-0 Gc)1,,'1 0.0
o·on?1(11I o' 61
0·1./'1
/0.4>
/0.' /4. 6(:,
14-. 0.014-34.
~.''aIO
2.
O.0"l4-31J.6i3 1 o a.000
0.008~O "2.S.t.~
oo.. 7-5 2_,
/I. (D
fl· " /6,5
1~.5 o· g..3033
0. o0 Et62.1
Z .lJ033
,&(,;2../ 0-00-74a
0.0074-3 0-2-1+11
0·2..411
1r2-G
:1,,(.. ,g.
(8. 1 I 0-0793'7 2..8'1
0·07'13.7 2.g95-7$"'1 0.00610
0.00""10 0.2.2-73
0.2:1-'18
/U;
/ 3- 5. 20.0
2.0 .0 o .0 --74.oi .22.77
0.0,401 s7
·'1'Hl o.00.54.9
o .00$"i-'1 0-2.2-
0·2.2.. 17
19
/4.4-
14'4 ZI
:z.1 . °
0 0-0
0.0 6?4-4.
l.'1q.u. 3.0L.5
3·0 lJ.lJ.$ 0.00 4.8
0.00 2-
1J.82.. 0.2.11f 4--
0.2./ 4-
Totals n11 1'1 o.
Totals 0. 6814..
'84-3- /9:0/3
11.0135 0.07253
0.07).53 1.6'007
/.'1007
 - 54
54--

Form 5'.1
Form 5.1 ommonslope
CQmmon -lo e and
and common
common intercept regression
intercept rearession models
models
Part I1
Part Plot data
datasummarization. Use as
summarization. Use as muy
many part 1 sheets
as necessary
as for all
necessary for all plots.
plots.
Data transformations used: X
X =. I /Ave
Aft" , /
Y=
Y =----------------------
Lopr
L09. HFV/7"-
He/flfl

...,....."...CMTO.Verasc,...V.GX32917.1.19.Y.I12,-725,11,217.23ares,P2f.....17.1=--,417SM2-,.......137-SM
riot
[Plot It-b
2... 6
Raw data
,taw data Transfo-rrned
Transf ormed data
data
9
A
A H X v
v X2 XY
/4.7
,6.1 1..1
2_1.1.( 0.0<;988 3.o 4.-9 3 0o.co
0.0 5922 ?,.0,+-93 .00 359
'?,S~ O. /g2.4:,
0."2..("
!L4
11., ,22.4-
2.2.4- 0
o .0 S..1 /al
";{"82- 3
.0S.68.2. 09 (I 0.0032.7e
0.00323 O.(
0.n6'
6-1
2o.6
20.' 2.5./
2.5 · 1 o.0485.
o .o4-g~4- ?,. 2.2.,.~ 0.002..v;
s.2_2-"Si.9 0.002.;;'" 0. t5,.:(,14-
0·'£104-
21.4
21.(' Z5.7
.2.S.-7 004.4.3c, ?.
0.04-{,30 -2,...2.465 0 . 00 2. 1
2-1,j.~~ 0.00.2.14- 1.4. o.
0 .'1503
So3
22.6
2.2.6 26.3
:z.b ·3 0.
0 ·0o 042-5
(j. IJ.2S' 3.H'I6
3.249 d 0.00
0.00l'l5'<t
19-5;9 0. 144-4
O. 144."
",. 4-
214-4
2 L7.7
:1..1 .7 o.o!,.. 018 3g.32
0. ocfr Oeig -1 If 0.00
. ;P.I4- /4..80
0.00 Ib80 0.1 6i
0.13.6/

Totals nn 6b
Totals 0.2.96s
O.2't6S 11,218
l't. :L18 '1
parawav magmas :
0.0 i495
0.0/4'15- o. '1 4- b 'if
0.'14.48
,
scrara.s...cooms.....t.nas_varft.atmacomuccrtares==mrcul

Plot S'2
52 -
Raw data Transf ormed
Transf ormed data
A H
II V
J(' Y
-2
x2 xy
XY
.-...........X... ...,...
21. 1
2-1-7 /S.. /1
1'1 0.04-60g
O .o~og 2.2959
.z.8'J !>'9 0.002-12.
0.002..12. 0.1 ?,?4-
0. 1 3,-& L-1-
22.4"
22. i?. 4-
19.4- 0.0442-5 2.·"('<;;3
2.743
0.0 4-1J.2-S' 0-00 i96
0.001'16 o. ,], r12-
0. 13 2.
23-5S'
21.· .20.0
2.0.0 o.04-2.S5
0 .o rr2.<;5 2-9957
02.'1"15'1 c'° t1181I
0 . 00 0.12.15
0 ·, 215
26.4
:26 · (, 22-3
.2.2. ·3 0.0375
O·0'37e;-q 'g. to 4-4
3./04-4 0.00
0.00lit.
Ilj. I t 0. rIIi Cl
o· ,-,
27.4
2. 7." 23.3
23 · 3 0.036,2
(1).036.23 3. I 1j..8 £
3.(114.4.; 0-00 (3!
0.00 III o.i/14-1
o. II 4- \
2g.S.
. 2.1l.~ 2. ... 2.
2 i-p- 2. 0. 035°5'
0.03$'0'1 3. (84,14-
3.1864- o.t.50 12..3
0.00 i2.. o. I I 18
2?.4If
2.9· 24-7
1..1+·7 0.) 31t2 /I
0.034-0 3.2..o4
3.l..o6l? o0.00
. on If
r/ 6 oo · to?
1091 1.._,I
Totals
Totals nn-, p.l.
0.2.77S'B
SS 21.503/
2.1. S03/ 0-0 f (00
0.01/00 o'~"""8

lot 1'f8
1P1ot Ng
Raw data Transformed data
2ransformed
A H X Y X2
X2 XI
XY
22;1
:t2.1 2.3
n.:?, 0.04405
0.0 4-14.05- 3.34.2a
3.34-.2.9 0.0019 br
0.0 0 194- 0. I 4- -11
0.1,+,3
2 3 - S'
23· 5 2-8 .'l
.2.8 .9 0.0 4-2.55
0.04-2.S'5' 3. 4,-18
3.?b'3g o.00t8(
0.0018/ 00.14.1
. 11,j.!.1\
2.4
:tS'. (, 314
3/·1 0.0 '3?0
0.0 '3'10" :1. k-3'2-
3. di_37 2, 00·00
. 00 i153
g3 c).1343
0.1540'3
26..5
J.(, .S' 3z.5
32.S' 0.03779- 3.4-812- 0.00 142_
3.4-8 12- 0.00142-
0.0>174- 0.131
0.13/i-t-
....
zg. c,
2J.b 33.0 6.0(4.--ri
33.0 3.4-965
b .o"?> 't"l' 3.4- 'lEo5 0.00
0.00l2.2.
12..2- o.1 1.2.2.3
0. 2. 2. S i
244
'J... 316
'/.4- 33.& 00. .c),3.4
0 'tIJ.OI
0I «.<:1 *<
3-.57 (+5 0.00 ///I 6(,.
C).oo o. if 51.5
0.1195
J
Totals A
Totals II 6
{, oc ..1.?::2..
/s1_ If4 AO. 634,z oo . OI:J
/1.D·'lb2. ao 768
10g 0-. 7"l7f
o rr7S
 -- 55
55 --

Form
Form 5.1 ammon slone and
Common slone and common
common interce t regresE!j.on
j.ntercept re Te sion modell
models
Part
Part 22 Totals
Totals between plots and
between plots and coefficient
coefficient calculation
calculation

-
flan'
IXl:XY (IX) 2
.
Plot
IXY-gg
Plot .EXY-IX/Y x2'-j_22
IX2_(IX) IX2
S.L.X.L2
IX 2
2
12C-
n IY
EY
_____ _____ n n
-----...........--,......-.--......, ..... .. "P 9...,osiarali.G ...,.....,....,.....,...--.-..,==r _
3 -0.0"'''''1-83 0.ooSb'34-1'1 lb. ,fog 3
-0.0444.83 0.0°5sLi--77 j.7'3 6.4S{'18
6.4-5 6. r E 77 4,
1'/. 635S
(, $ 5"8

35 -0.0 414-51 0.00"'113~~

-0.04111-51 /5:9112
0.004,71395 15. 'H 1.2. 6.5 ;6,55
6·~5655 77 //.
/l . sszs
5"t;z3

3b
Sé -0.05g005
-0.0'5800$ 0.00 i6. "If?
S"634-i 16.
0.00 5634? 9?? /1 6. ta-5 613
6.Lt5b18 1"1 /7.013s
1~.OI3S 1

1f.6
4-6 -o.no314.1
-0 o. oooz 68.2 'I avic)61
.0038''-'" a..00026229 18.1'161 5.81 2.32
~.8"12.3Z 6 ici.ligl
1'1.2.18'1

5z
5"2- -0.0034.2.2.1o.000r334-8
-0.003t,.2.2.1 0.000 13311-B 21. ; 5(:,31
:l.1..S"(.:n 6. '715°6
b.'i,S06 1 21.
-ZI. 60
<;0~1 1 '

19s -0.00 /Son' o.000

I,}S -0.00.Sof8 0.00001737 20. 4 i 9'It;
.2.0·41
011,37 ~."'f4-fj'21
5. cl ti- ?2. I 6 '1 &2-
Zo. lo(,3
.2.0. b2,

,
,

Totals 1
!IT
It Eti B .7_0-
-O.I1:Z
t5:27 b ~
1 4,
2]
0 .0 165. it
0.0(65(.4- ~I/O.'2..1
1Ho. 12:7 Ai
lt-5
SF.2.01÷5
l!J'Sl?20
5
O ~ 1/1>.560
[2Jlt-o n, --
f/6.5 60

Common slopeb b= =(1)/(2)

(1)/(2) - o. 5.2.%
== -O. 152.~bj;'S",t;
Common slope 0. of 65(.5 = -'l.22.2.
SC>- - ilo42,1)
UI" . S"b /f0.,2.1)
Common intercept aa ==( («6)-()/«5)-(4))
Commonintercept 6 )-( 3) )/( ( 5 )-( 4) ) = Opo - 38.2.,,"'S)
= +(11-0- 38. 204-5)

= 3.5'83
 -- 56
56 --

Figure 5.6
5.6

Data from 6 permanent

pennanent sample plots in Cupressus
lusitanica stands in Kenya.
lusitanica stands Kenya. Used in text example
Used in example
for fitting site index
index curves
curves by nested regression
by nested regression

.1,-93
--- e3Measurement
Measurement points
points & &
... - .. -.'
,. "8
plot number
plot number for
for PSP
PSP
,,
,,
,.,
30 ,
.'
e
,.'
o/

, , ~"'"
4.4o

,0"
e'
..'
e'-
,a'
, , dr
.052,

, ,,
,,-' ,
,0/
0/
"34
.3l. 0' ,,
/
,·e
I

eoI ,e 3 e.'
, ,I/ ,,."
,41(

p e'
Ie.' .35
/5
15
,~
/I/
r "
/ dp,
I
I~"
.'
/

/e .",.
..,
e/I I

.'
/' ,,;
" ,

,.
eV
//
//
II t
,
4,
..
e , ,- ,.
I

+
# .,.-.
10
.• ,
,
i/I ,.
0/, /
/
I

10 I~
IS 20
2.0 2s
25 30
(years)
Age (years)
 Form ;-.2
Form £.2 Transformations
Transformations totoage
ageand
andheight
heightdata
data from
fromPSP's
PSP'stotofit
fit
k
parameter in
parameter in Schumacher equation by
Schumacher equation commonslope
by CORmon slopeestimator
estimator

I J A·I) da bb c( X·IJ
X H··I) d e f 9 h y.
Yrj !
IJ
a d//
tY2 ~
!

~o' .:!I.
I~
o~ 34 in cc
In Sum Diff ~
-
Sum Diff
Off Height
Heiuht In
in hh
~ « Age - 2 J g ,

1
1 1
; i F7
!fo.I !W''""~,,~ ;~~;~.:.~ .:
·=;:~,:.~~~i .;~;~~.{~;;
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Transfer
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orm
5:1
5:
 -- 58
58 --

Figure 5.7

index curves
Site index curves produced
produced for
for the
the data
data in
in
figure Bailey &
figure 5.6 by Bailey Clutter's nested
& Clutter's nested regres-
regres-
sion method using the Schumacher equation

Site
S Index
ite index
35 26
26

- 24

-
-
E
30
30 22
.c
0'1
C71
00::; 20
cTi
:c
1= 25 18
ro
ru
c:
16
E
E
o
0
0
20
20

15
15

10
10

o I-----.------r---.....---..,..---....,.- .-- --.-

5 10
10 15
15 20
20 25 30
30

. ,
Age (yea
(years!
rs )
 -- 59
59 --

Multiple regression
regression methods of
of fitting site index curves can
can be
be used
used as
as an
an alterna-
reg ression When
tive to nested regression when the site index or site class
class of
of the
the plot
plot cancan be
be detennined
determined
prior to fitting
fitting the
the model.
model. There are perhaps
perhaps five
five ways
ways in this !!:a priori
in which this priori site
site class
class
or site index determinaticn
detemination can
can be made:
be made:

(1) For a long series of

of plot measurements which
which have
have passed
passed through
through the
the index
index age,
age,
site
site index can ne
be taken directly as the dominant height at the index
index age.
age.

(2) For
Por series of measurements
measurements which do
do not
nct pass
pass through
through the
the index
index age,
age, an
an equation
equation
such as
as the
the Schumacher equation can be fitted independently to each each plct
plot and
and
used to predict the dominant height at
at the
the index
index age,
age, which
which is
is then
then taken
taken as
as
the site index
index for
for the
the plot.
plot.

(3) For temporary plot data, site

site class can
can be
be assigned
assigned onon the
the basis
basis described
described
above under
under the maximum-minimum method of
maximumminimum method of fitting 8i te curves.
fitting site curves. This
This method
method
should
should not
not be
be used
used with PSP data as it is wasteful of of the information inherent
inherent
in such data.
dat a.

(4) An set of site curves

An existing set curves can be used
used to
to assign
assign site
site class
class to
to the
the plots.
plots.
Alternatively,
Alternatively, hand- drawn curves
handdrawn curves can
can be
be nade
made specially
specially for
for aa particular
particular analysis,
analysis,
to classify
-Lo classify plots.
plots. This
This technique
technique is useful when existing
existing curves are almost
almost
satisfactory,
satisfactory, but
but of not
not quite
quite the
the correct
correct curvature
curvature or
or one
aae wishes
wishes to
to approxi-
approxi-
mate hand-drawn curves by
handdrawn curves an equation.
by an equation.

(5) An
An environmental variable such as altitude, rainfall, etc.
altitude, rainfall, etc, can
can be
be used
used as
as the
the
indicator variable.
site indicator variable. This
This approach isis rarely successful
successful due
due to
to the
the poor
poor
usually found
correlation usually found between
between aa single
singl e environmental
environmental variable
varianle and
and height
height
growth.
growth.

Once the met;lod

method of assigning site class to the plots has has been
been determined,
determined, one
one has
has aa
set
set of data in which
which three
three variables
variables are
are known
known for
for each
each observation:
observation:

Dominant height H
Hoo
Age A
A

Site class or index S

S

Multiple regression can

Multiple regression can then
then be
be used
used to
to fit
fit aa model
model which
which relates
relates Ho
Ho to
to AAand
and SS
using different transformations.
using various different transformations. Two types of of model
model have
have been
been used:
used:

(1) Constrained models,

models, for use with site index curves,
curves, where height
height is
is expressed
relative to site index and age relative to index age A.• The regression fitted
1
one without
is ane without an
an intercept.
intercept. An example
example would
would be
be the
the model:
model:

(Ho s) = bi (A Ai) + b2(A Ai.)2

of model is
This kind of is forced
forced to give
give aa dominant
dominant height
height Ho equal
equal to site
site index
S When the age is
is equal
equal to
to the
the index
index age
age Ai. A;.
(2) Unconstrained models, with
with an
an intercept
intercept term.
term. When used with
with site
site index,
index,
site class,
rather than site class, the curves
curves must be conditioned
conditioned after fitting to ensure
ensure
corresponds to
that the dominant height corresponds to the
t;,e site
site index
index at the index age.
age.
 -60
- 60 -

Serna examples of the types of

Some of unconstrained models that can be fitted are:
are:

Ho
= b A + b1A + b2S + b3A°
0 + b4A2 -(13)
(13 )

log Ho = 130 + bl/A + b2S + b3S/A -(l4)

(~3) is based
Equation (13) based on
on the
the quadratic
quadratic equation.
equation. See figure
figure A.2.1(e)
A.2.1(e) in
in Appendix A
for -the
the shapes that aa single curve may
curve may take. Obviously for
Obviously for si-te
site index
index curves,
curve% only one case
of
of the sseveral
everal possible shapes is
is desired.
desired. Equation (14)
(14) is
is based
based on the Schumacher
Schumacher equa-
equ.....
tion, or figure
tion, or figure A.2.1(c).
A.2.1(c).

An infinite variety of
of other models
models is possible. In allall cases,
cases, it is essential
essential to
to
plot the curves after fitting and to overlay them
them on
on aa graph
graph of the data
data to
to ensure
ensure thaeT
that the
the
ve
trends ~re accurately followed.
followed. No
No reliance can be placed on
on the statistical parameters
parameters
(e.g. R
(e.g. R •9 residual standard deviation)
deviation) associated with multiple regression in determing the
sui tebility of
suitability of the
the curves.
curves .

When sHe
site index is used, opposed to site class,
used, as opposed class, then it will be found that if i f the
curves are plotted,
plotted, the predicted
predicted dominant
dominant height
height Ho
Ho at
at the
the index
index age ~ is
age Al is generally
generally!!.2i
not
equal
equal to the site index
index S.
S. This
This is
is because
because there isis no constraint
constraint in
in the fitting process
process
to
to bring about this coincidence. o.uves
Curves for selected real site index
index values S*S* are
are graphed
graphed
bby
y calculating
calculating the
the statistical
statistical site
site index
index SS required
required in
in the
the model
model to
to give
give aa line
line passing
pass ing
through S*
through S* at
at A..
A. •
~

from model
Thus from (13) we
model (13) we have:
have:

3* 22
S* ~ b
o ++ b1Ai
b0
b A. + b S + b A . • S ...
2 + h3-i.
1 ~ + b2S 3 ~
+ b A
4i -(15)
b4Ai

•
•• S = (S*
(s* _ b
o
0
b_ bbA
A _ bA
11
b A 2)/(b
4,
4i b22
,
+ b A )
3i
+ b3Ai) (15 )

or frern
fram model (14)
(14) we have:
have:

log S* = b +b /A + b S + b.S/A.
0 1 i 2

S = (log S* 1)0
b,Ai )/(b2 + b3 /Ai
) (16)
-(16)

The necessity for conditioning

conditioning site
site index
index curves
curves and
and the mysterious andand confusing
confusing
distinction between statistical
statistical site
site index
index SS and
and real
real site
site index
index S*
S* has
has led
led many
many workers
workers to
to
of the constrained type described above. Unfortunately, it
use models of the constrained type described above. it is
is often
often the case
case
many standard
that many standard multiple
multiple regression
regression programmes
programmes dodo not
not have
have aa facility
facility for
for fitting
fitting equa-
equa.-
tions without
withou:t an intercept term, so
so that
that this
this qption
option is
is not
not available
available to
to the
the research
research worker.
worker.

With si-be
With site class
class curves,
curves, the
the problem
problem does
does not
not arise,
arise, since there is no requirement
for the curves to pass
pass therough aa particular
particular point.

Multiple regressicn
regression techniques
techniques have the advlmtage
advantage ofof great
great flexibility
flexibility in
in the
the type of
typeof
adopted .They
model adopted Theyhave
havethe
thedisadvantages
disadvantagesofofrequiring
requiringa!;p.tiori
pritori estimationof
estimation of site
site index,
index, ofof
being inefficient statisticallyin
being inefficient statistically in not making use of the nested na-bureofRSP
making useof nature of PSP data.
data and
and of
of being
being
based on
based on the
the invalid
invalid assumption
assumption that
that the
the site
site variable
variable is
is known to aa high
known to high degree
degree of
of precision.
preCision.
 -- 61
61 --

5.1.3 Site Assessment Models Based

Based on
on Ehvironmental
Ehvironmental Factors
Factors

Site
Si-teindex
index or
or site
site class
class curves
curves are
are obviously
Obviously only
only useful
useful as
as aa tool
tool for
for predicting
predicting
production potential
potential when
when applied
applied to
to existing
existing stands.
stands. A A large class
class of forest
forest managanent
management
sorne assesmnent
decisions require some assessment of potential
potential production of a given given species before it
species before it has
has
been established
been established or
or at
at least
least very
very early
early in
in the
'the life
life of
of young
yeung stands.
stands.

is only
This is only possible
possible in
in two
two types
types of
of situation:
situation:

Very generalized predictions as

Very as to maximum productivity inin aa given
given region
region by
by
comparison with optimal
optimal productivity
productivity ofof similar
similar forests
forests growing
growing under
under similar
similar
environmerrtal
environmental conditions
conditions eIsel-mere
eiseWhere in
in the worldo
he world.

More detailed
More detailed prediction
prediction of
of site
si'te class with reference to aa particular setset of
of
height/age curves for a given species
species by construction
construction ofof aa functional
functional relation-
relation-
already established
ship for forests already established in
in the
the region
region in
in questions
question, between
between site
site
environmental factors
class and enviramnental factors such
such as
as soil
soil nutrientss
nutrients, depth
depth and
and textures
texture,
altitude, and rainfall.
altitudes aspect and rainfall.

The first approach is

first approach is particularly
particularly relevant
rel""""t for
for mixed
mixed natural forests. As
natural forests. As far as
man-made uniform
man-made unifonn forests
forests are
are concerneds it corresponds
concemed p it corresponds more to the phase of species and
provencnce selection
provenonce selection than
than to
to that
that of
of detailed
detailed yield
yield prediction with which this
this manual
manual is
is
concerned.

5.1.3.1 Functional modele

models for site claaa
class prediction
rediotion

Site class
Si-te class prediction
prediction models
models are
are constructed following stages:
constructed in the following stages:

(1) Construction of
of site index or
or site
site class
class curves
curves from
from permanent
permanent sample
sample plots
plots in
in
existing forest,
forest "

(2) of enviramnental
Collection of environmental data
data frcm
from permanent
pennanent and/
and/ or
or temporary
temporary plots.
plots. Each
assigned aa site
plot is also assigned site class
class on
on the basis of
of dominant height and age from
site index
the site index curves.
curves, The environmental
environmental data collected
collected should
should correspond
correspond to
to
glven in
the suggestions given in section
section 3.2.3.

(3) The varicus environmental variables

various environmGntal variables are tranefonned
trensformed and selected
selected as
as described
described
foll~ding sections
in the following section, to produce a predictive model in the form:
fonn:

S = b0 b10e1 + b2.e2 + 0
bO + b1.e1 .......
.,09 •• • ++ bn.en
bn.en

where bO, b1, etc.

bOs bli etc0 are
are coefficients
coefficients fitted
fitted by
by multiple
multiple regression
regression and
and e1
el to
to en
are relevant transformations
traneformationt3 ofof environmental variables.
variables .

(4) predic'tions can be defined from the methods given for

Confidence limits for predictions
multiple regression
multiple regression in
in Appendix A. In generals
Appendix A. general, itit is also desirable to
to test
test
by comparison
the function by comparison ofof actual
actual and
and predicted
predicted site
site classes
classes for
for an inde-
indE>-
of data
pendent set of data to
to that
that used
used to
to fit
fit the
"he function.
function. This
This independent data
preferably be
should preferably be from
fran aa different
different region
region from
from the
the main data to test the
t.he
stability of
regional stability of the
the prediction
prediction function.
:function.
 - 62
62 -

5.1.3.2 Construction and selection of environmental

environmental variables

The total number of

of environmental variables
variables measured may
may be
be quite
quite large,
large, possibly
possibly aas
s
many as
many as 100
100 per plot, whilst aa usable model should contain the smallest
per smallest possible
possible numb er of
number
easily
most easily measurable variables.
measurable variables.

in the
Reduction in the total
total number
number of
of variables
variables can
can be
be achieved
achieved in
in several
several ways:
ways:

By synthesis
By syntheSiS ofof some
some items
items of
of information.
information. For example,
example, climatic data
data may
may be
be
synthesized to give the length of the wet wet ssPason
~ason or growing saason
season with
with tempera.-
tempera-
o
tures over
over 6°
6 C, C, or
or average temperatures during the wet Besson
season or more
more canplex
complex
based an
techniques based on evapotranspiration
evapotranspiration formulae.
formulae.

Statistical selection
Statistical selection of
of the
the most
most significant
significant variables.
variables. Principal components
analysis can be used for this,
this, but it is perhaps simpler to use stepwise
stepwise multiple
multiple
r~eBBian analysis.
regression analysis.

analysis of
Graphical analysis of variables considered
considered likely
likely to be most important as limiting
limiting
fact ore
factors in growth,
growth, selecting only
anly those with definite an~ obvious relationships
and obvious relationships
with site class.
with site class.

The actual measured variables should ifif possible be transformed in order to give
values that are likely
likely to
to be correlated
correlated with
with growth.
growth. The most obvious example
example isis aspect,
aspect ,
which may be measured in degrees
degrees from
from 00 to
to 360, where values around zero and 360 both corres-
pond to northerly
northerly directions.
directions. Taking
Taking the sine
sine of
of the
the angle
angle divided
divided by
by 22 gives
gives an
an aspect
aspect
code between zero for northerly
northerly directions and
and one
one for
for southerly
southerly slopes.
slopes.

5.1.3.3
5.1.3.3 Problems I
PrOblems in the application of site
a lication of site assessment
assessment functions
functions

To be effective,
effective, aa site
site assessment
assessment model should
should be
be described
described in
in terms of
of predictor
predictor
variables that
variables that are
are easily
easily measurable.
measurable. They should also have aa relatively high corre1atirnl
correlation
preferably over
coefficient, preferably over 0.8
0.8 with
with 20
20 or
or more
more points.
points. Otherwise
otherwise the relationship may be
statistically significant,
statistically significant, but
but of
of no
no practical
practical use
use for
for prediction
prediction purposes
purposes because
because of
of low
low
predictive equation
precision. The predictive equation should
should also
also have
have as
as few
few predictor
predictor variabls
variab1s as
as possible,
preferably not
preferably not more
more than
than three
three or
or four.
four.

predictor variables
The predictor variables should
should be
be quantities
quantities which
which are
are readily
readily determinable
determinable using
using
conventionally available
conventionally available equipment.
equipment.

An example
example is
is shown
shown in
in figure
figure 5.8
5.8 of
of aa predictive
predictive model
model which
which fulfils
fulfils these
these criteria.
criteria.
based an
It is based on aa single
single variable,
variable, which
which is
is the
the number
number of
of days
days in
in the
the growing
growing season
season exceeding
exceeding
6°0.
6°C. Site index is expressed in terms
expressed in terms of
of mean
mean annual
annual volume
volume increment
increment per
per annum
annum at
at its
its
maximum.
maximum.

The fewer predictor

predictor variables are
are involved
involved in
in aa model,
model, the
the more
more likely
likely it
it is
is to
to be
be
over aa wide
usable over wide region.
region. With many predictor sensitive
predictor variables, the model becomes very sensitive
relationships between them, especially
to the relationships especially if
if ' some of
of the predictor variables are
highly correlated.
highly correlated. Consequently, regional
Consequently, regirn>a1 shifts
shifts in
in the balance between predictor varia-
bles can
can easily
easily invalidate
invalidate a complex
complex model.
model.
 63
- 63 -

Figure 5.8

Site
Si-te assessment
assessment model
model for
for Scotch
Scotch Pine (E.
(P. sylvestris)
sylvestris)
forests in Sweden.
Sweden. Average
Average productivity
productivity of regions is
plotted against mean number of daysdays exceeding 6~6°C per
per
year. J.,
(Reproduced from Fries, J., 1978 "The assessment
assessment
of growth and yield and the factors influencing
influencing it"
Special paper
paper to
to 8th
8th World
World Forestry
Forestry Congress,
Congress, Djakarta)
Djakarta)

m'/ha
013/
8 " /

/
1/
6
6,11
LYI
" "
w

4 erg /7
2
!

N /'
V n
I",
00

V"
100
100 120 140 360
160 180 200
daY'
ciaya ~+6·C
4-6'C

5.2
5.2 STATI
STATICC MnaTIODS
MEI'HODS OF PREDIC TING YIELD
PREDICTING

Static
Sta-ticyield
yieldprediction
prediction methods
methods are
are those
those in
in which
which yield
yield is
is predicted
predicted directly
directly as
as aa
of age,
function of age, si-te
site class
class and
and the
the history ofof stand
stand density.
density. The methods are static
statie in the
sense that the resultant yield functions
functions do not permit
penni t any variation in the history of stand
treatment,
treatment, except intc
into broad classes of
of alternative thinning treatments
treatments that
that are already
in the
present in the data.
data.

The components of yield that are of

of major forest manager are volume
major interest to the forest volume
and
and mean
mean diameter.
diameter. To determine the volume of stands requires a knowledge of stem numbers
numbers
and height,
height, as well as mean diameter. Stem numbers are usually
usually the
the basis for
for defining
defining
thinning treatment, is the most common
treatment, whilst height is common means of
of site
site classification.
classification.

In this section, static

static methods
methods of
of predicting
predicting mean
mean diameter
diameter will
will be
be considered.
considered.
 -- 64
64 --

5.2
Figure 5.9

Shape
Sha .e of
of the
the relationship
relationshi between mean diameter
and dominant_height
dominant height

(a) With temporary plot data,

data, a scatter
scatter diagram
diagram is
is 6btained.
obtained. The true
shape of
of the diameter/height
diameter/height relationship
relationship is
is difficult
difficult to
to define.
define.

Diameter of tree
Diameter of tree of
of
meanbasal.
mean basal area
area
Dg

•
o

. a
..
.......00e
.
•
to
o

o
0

o
.......
00
•o
0
*
'.
0
o

0
•
•
..... . .
. .'

Dominant height Ho
Doainant heigh'!;

(b) experiment data, the shape

With thinning experiment shape of
of the
the relationship
relationship and
and
on stand density
its dependence on density is
is very
very clear.
clear. AA represents the
thinning and
lightest thinning and DD the
the heaviest.
heaviest.

Dg Thinning treatments
Thinning treataents

/
,0 D

"
..... (J

,
/ .' :Ii
3.
, 0'.' ,,°-..........
/ V
/ y ,-
/ ,' .------
,.-'

-6--
.--
,
--
-- ...---
," "
"".
_- _.. A
A

--
41.-- ,- ,---
'2&''.....' ...A.....-
I ,..
e-

Ho
 --65-
65 -

5. 2• 1
5.2.1 Graphical
Gra bical Methods
Methods based on
on the Diameter/Height
DiametertHeight FUnction
Function

When
When data fran
from aa mass
mass of
of temporary
temporary plots
plots is
is graphed
graphed with
with mean
mean diameter
diameter on
on the
the verti-
verti-
cal
cal axis
axis and
and daninant
dominant height
height onan the
the horizontal
horizontal axis,
axis, aa diagram
diagram is
is obtained
obtained similar
similar to
to figure
figure
5.9a. If the data is is from
from aa thinning
thinning experiment,
experiment, something
something like figure 5.9b is
like figure obtained.
is obtained.
Treatment
Treatment A represents
represents the
the lightest
lightest thinning,
thinning, i.
i,e.e.the
theheaviest
heavieststocking, and Treatment
stockingond Treatment DD is
is
the heaviest thinning, with
with the
the lowest
lowest stockings.
stockings.

It
It can
can be seen that the curve
curve is concave
concave with
with respect
respect to
to the
the horizontal
horizontal axis.
axis. With
With
temporary plot
plot data
data or
or "ith
with permanent
permanent plots,
plots, aa series
series ofof hand-drawn curves can
handdrawn curves can be
be constructed
constructed
in
in aa manner that described
manner exactly analogous to that in section
described in section 5.1.2.1
5.1.2.1 for
for site
Bite index
index curves,
curves,
except
except that here the
the curves
curves demarcate
demarcate differences
differences in stand history
i.n stand historyrather
ratherthan
thansi-te
site class.
class.

With temporary
temporary plot
plot data,
data2 the
the shape
shape of
of the
the curve
curve may
may be
be defined
defined basically
basically from
from the
the
upper and lower envelopes of the scatter diagram,
diagram, but
but obviously the
the curve
curve shape
shape can
can be
be easily
easily
misconstrued as a
a result of aa few exceptional or anomolous
anomalous points
points and
and remains
remains largely
largely aa
matter for subjective
subjective judgement.
judgement. With permanent
permanent plot
plot data on the other
other hand,
hand, the main curve
curve
trends are readily visible from the slope of the
the lines
lines joining remeasurements
remeasurements on
on the
the same
same
plot.

Height is used on the horizontal

horizontal axis
axis as
as aa site-dependent indicator of
sitedependent indicator of age.
age. Graphs
Graphs
can be plotted using age instead,
instead, but in this
this case aa separate
separate set
set of
of curves
curves is
is needed
needed for
for
each site class.
class.

Once aa set of curves has been drawn,

drawn, the stocking history
history represented
represented by
by each
each denSity
density
be determined.
class must be detennined. This is
is discussed in liection
discussed. in section 5.2.3.
5.2.3.

Hand-drawn curves can

Handdrawn curves can be
be expressed
expressed as
as equations
equations by
by using
using one
one of
of the various
various approxi-
mation methods
mation methods described
described in
in Appendix
Appendix A.A.

5. 2 • 2
5.2.2 Direct Statistical
Statistical Estimation
Estimation of ~!ean Diameter
of Mean Diameter Prediction
Prediction FUnctions
Functions

Functions can be fitted directly to mean diameter data by methods

methods analogous
analogous to
to those
those
for fitting
used for fitting site
site index
index curves.
curves. The predictor variables
variables may
may be
be dominant
dominant height
height and
and stand
stand
treatment
treatment history (designated
(designated by T)2
T), or may include age and site index as
as separate
separate variables
variables
of as the combined
instead of combined variable
variable dominant
dominant haight.
height. The methods that
that may be
be used
used to
to fit
fit the
include:
functions include:

(i)
(i) With temporary plot data:
data:
by diameter
Sort data by diameter within
within height
height classes
classes and assign an order
order number
number
after sorting. Adjust order
order numbers within
tlithin each
each height class onto aa common
canmon
scale by the transformation:
transformation:
T
T =
= i/ n
iin
where ii is
is the order number
number within
within aa height class and
heied class and nn is
is the
the number
number of
of
wi thin the
points within the class.
class. T is an index
index of
of treatment
treatment history.
history. AA multiple
multiple
regression of one of the types discussed below can then be fitted using T
as an independent predictor
prediotor variable.
variable.

Fit aamean
mean trend line by regression of
by simple regression of mean diametercm
diameter on daninant
dominant height
height
and then construct
construct proportional
proportional or
or parallel
parallel (anamorrhic)
(anamorphic) sets
sets of
of curves.
curves.
 66 -
- 66

(11)
(ii) IIi th permanent
With pennanent plot
plot data:
data:
Simple nested regression,
regression, as described in section 5.1.2.2
5.1.2.2 for site index
curves. This depends onon being able to find a transformation
transfonnation for the data
in a figure like figure 5.5a
that will result in 5.5a or
or 5.5b
5.5b for a common
canmon slope or
or
canmon intercept
common intercept model.
model. The Schumacher
Schumacher equation
equation may be suitable
sui table or
or a simpler
Simpler
transfonnation of the type:
transformation of type:
k
Dg a. aa + b.Ho
+ b.Hok

where kk is
Where is aa power
power between
between O0 and
and 1.
1.
Multivariate nested regression,
Multivariate nested regression, either
either using
using the
the conditional
conditional variable tech-
tech-
described in
nique described in Appendix
Appendix A2.9
A2.9 or
or using
using more
more advanced
advanced multistage
multistage regression
regression
techniques.
Conventional multiple
Cbnventional multiple regression,
regression, after assigning aa treatment
treatment history value
value
T to each
each plot.
plot. This
This may be done in various ways,
ways, including aa variation on
sorting method
the sorting method described
described above
above for
for temporary
tElDporary plots
plots in
in which
which average
average
of TT calculated
values of calculated for
for each
each measurement
measurenent are
are taken
taken for
for plots
plots managed
managed
according ccmsistent thinning
according to a consistent thinning schedule.
schedule.
With thinning experiments, TT values may
may be
be assigned
assigned for
for each
each treatment simply
simply
as
as 1, 2, 3 etc.
etc. if
if the treatments can
can be
be clearly
clearly ordered
ordered according
according to their
their
degree of
of intensity.
intensity.
A
A very common
canmon approach
approach to fitting multiple
multiple regression
regression models to permanent
pennanent
plots is
is to
to use
use spacing
spacing relative
relative to
to hsight
height or
or even
even simply
simply stocking,
stOCking, as
as
indices of
of treatment
treatment history.
history. This method
method can
can appear
appear to
to work
work quite
quite well,
well,
but introduces
introduces special
epecial conceptual
ccmceptual difficulties
difficulties which
which are
are discussed
discussed below
below in
in
section 5.2.3.

The actual mathematical

mathematical function
function that
that is
is used
used for
for the
the basis
basis of
of the
the fitting
fitting method
method
is not very
very importante
important, provided
provided it
it is
is capable
capable of
of assuming
assuming the
the correct
correct shape.
shape. This
This will
will be
aa curve that is gently
gently concave
concave with
with respect
respeot to the horizontal axis, ~s, i.e.
i.e. bending
bending downwards
downwards
away from the straight line,
line, as shown
shown in 5. 91>. Suitable models are:
in figure 5.9b. are:

Dg a bO ++ b1.111.b
b0 bl.Ho ++b2.T
b2.T +
+ b3.Ho.T b4.Ho2
b3.Ho.T ++b4.11402

k k
Dg -
= bO ++ b1.1iok
b0 bl.Ho ++ b2.T
b2.T + b3.Ho .T
b30Hok.T

second model can

The second can be
be fitted
fitted using
using trial values of
of k between 0 and 1 with linear
regression methode, a value that gives aa maximum coefficient
methods, selecting a coefficient of
of correlation
correlation or
or it
it
can be
be fitted directly by nonlinear regression.
regression.

Whatever function
Whatever function is
is used
used to
to fit
fit the
the data,
data, the
the results
results should
should be
be examined
examined graphically,
graphically,
overlaid an
on the data, for
for anomolous
anomolous behaviour.
behaviour.

5.2.3
502.3 Defining Treatment
TreatmentIHistory
to in Tenns
Tenme of Stocking and Age

The claases
classes of
of treatment
treatment history
history may
may be
be defined
defined graphically
graphically or
or by
by aa numerical
numerical method,
method,
in sections
as discussed in sections 5.2.1
5.2.1 or
or 5.2.2
5.2.2 respectively.
respectively. Once this has been done, then the
actual stockings involved
involved may
may be
be determined
determined by
by aa process of
of tabulation.
tabulation. IIf f the function or
graph relates mean diameter
diameter to dominant
dominant height, then forfor each
each treatment class,
class, construct
construot aa
 - 67 -

table of height classes

classes and
and determine
determine the stocking per
ave~e stocking
the average ha in
per ha in each
each class.
class. The
The height
height
classes can subsequently
subsequently be converted
converted into
into classes
classes of
of age
age and
and si-te
site index
index by
by reference
reference to
to the
the
relevant site
relevant site index
index curves.
curves.

When the mean

mean diameter :function has been fitted using stocking
function has stocking or relative
relative spacing
as an index of history, then it is
of treatment historys is not
not nscessary
necessary to detennine
determine the
the stocking
stocking corres-
corres-
ponding to a particular
particular treatment
treatment hietory.
history. However, the
Howeverg the coefficients
ooefficients detennined
determined for
for such
auch aa
function are dependent
dependent upon the parti cul ar relationship
particular relationship between
between age and stocking observed
age and observed in
in
Failurs to realise this can mean
the data. Failure meanthat
that the function
function may
may be
be used
used for
for age/stocking
age/stocking
ccmbinations not represented
combinations represented in
in the
the dates
data, giving
giving more
more or
or less
less erroneous
erroneous results.
results.

5.2.4
502.4 Static Yield
Static neld Functions Predicting
Predictin, Basal Area or Volume
or
-------------

As well as constructing static yield functions

functiane toto predict
predict mean
mean diameter, it is
diametergit is possi-
ncesie
ble to use
use identical
identical techniques
techniques toto predict
predict basal
basal area
area or
or volume
volume per
per hectare.
heotare. The actual
aotual
shapes of
ofthe
the functions
functions will be somewbat different
willbesunewhat different and
and will
will bebe as
as shownin
shown in figures
figures 5010a
5.10a or
or b.
b.

general, use of
In general9 of mean diameter
diameter involves
involves certain
certain advantages
advantages in
in terms
tenns of
of overall
OITerall
model simplicity.
Simplicity. If basal area or volume are predicted, then it is usually necessa.ry
If basal area or volume are predicted9 then it is usually necessary to to
have some
have some function
function which
which will
will allow
allow mean
mean diameter
diameter to
to be
be determined
detennined subsequently.
subsequently.

Alsos with
Also, with basal
basal area
area or volume per hectare9
hectare, aa large component
component of the
the response
response to
to
different stand densities is siMply
simply the multiplicative
multiplicative effect
effect of
of different
different stockings.
stockings. With
functiong this
the mean diameter :function, this influence
influence isisremoved:
remOlTed p so
so that resultant relationehips
relationships focus
real effects
upon the real effects of
of competition.
competition.

5.2.5 of Static
Limitations of Static Yield
<ield Models
Models

have three
Static yield models have three significant
significant disadvantages:
disadvantages,

(i) It is
It is difficult
difficult to combine together
together data
data from
from stands
stands with
with radically
radically different
different
or variable
variable treatment
treatment histories
histories and
and obtain
obtain aa consistent
consistent and
and effective
effectivy yield
yield
:function.
function.

(ii) Once the model

model has been constructed9
constructed, it
it cannot
cannot be
be used
used to predict
predict yields
yields for
for
alternative treatments apart from
from those represented by
by the treatment
treatment histories
histories
incorporated in the model.

(iii) Detennination
Determination of thinning yields
yields is
is difficult,
difficult9 unless
unless accurate
accurate records
records of
of the
the
diameters of removed
remOlTed stems
stems are
are kept.
kept. Very often
often with PSPa
PSPS or
or even with experi-
are unavailable.
data. are
ments such data

On the other hands

hand, static models are undeniably
undeniably easier to construct and 11236
use than
than
dynamic models and, in appropriate situations9
andgin situations , at least as accurate.
accurate.

5.3 DYNAMIC
DYNAKIC MEI'IIODS GROlfl'll AND
METHODS OF PREDICTING GROWTH AND YIELD
YIELD

A
A dynamic model is one which models Tates
rates of
of change within a system.
system. As far
far as
as
forest
forest yield studies
studies are concerned,
concerned9 this means tthmt
hat the basic prediction is of increment
increment in
diameter, basal
diameter9 basal area
area or
or volume.
volume.
 - 68
- 68 --

Figure 5.10
av_Kt_5112
Sha e of the volume
Shape volume and basal
basal area functions
functi ons
over daninant
dominant heie;ht
height

(a) Volume per

Volume per hectare
hectare an
on daninant
daninant height.
height. Note that the solid line
nat exceeded
represents a limit not at very
exceeded at very high stand
stand densities.
densities. If
scales are used on
logarithmic scales an both
both axes, relation appears
axest the relation appears
as aa straiglot
straight line.
line.

vV decreasing
decreasing
stand density
density
j

Ho

(b) Basal area

Basal area per hectare
hectare on
on dominant height. The solid line is a
exceeded at very high
limit not exceeded stand densities.
high stand densities.

G
decreasing stand
decreasing

I density
density

Ho
 -69-
- 69-

Dynamic models have the advantage of being more realistically representative

representative of
of the
ths
cause and
true cause and effect
effect dependence
dependence between stand density
density and stand yield
yield than are static yield
models. They are free from the limitation that
that the
the data should
should represent
represent aa consistent
consistent series
series
of stand histories and consequently can be used as the basis basis for
for !Illalysing
analysing and
and synthesiSing
synthesising
data from
data from very
very diverse
diverse types
types of
of experiments
experiments and
and permanent
ps:nnanent sample
sample plots.
plots.

Growth models are based around functions

functions that
that predict
predict incl'ement
increment (of
(of mean
mean diameter,
diameter,
basal area
basal area or
or volume)
volume) over
over short
short time
time intervals,
intervals, asas aa function
function of
of stand density,
density, expressed
expressed
tenns of
in terms of basal
basal area
area and/or
and/or age
age and
and stand
stand age
age and
and site
site class.
class. The latter
latter two
two variables
variables
may be
may be combined
combined as
as dominant
dominant height
height as was done
as was done for
for the static
static yield models.
models.

To produce yield predictions, the growth function must eithereither be integrated mathe..·
mathe-
matically or
matically or iteratively
iteratively summed
summed over
over aa succession
succession of
of years.
years . This
This latter process
process is
is usually
achieved by
achieved by writing
writing aa small
small computer
computer programme, which
which becomes byby definition a computer
simulation model ofof forest
forest growth.
growth.

In the sections following, these

these techniques
techniques are
are discussed
discussed in
in more
more detail.,
detail, with
with parti-
parti-
cular reference
reference to
to functions
functions of
of stand
etand basal
basal area
area increment.
increment. The techniques
techniaues are not
not greatly
affected by
affected by the
the use of
of mean diameter
diameter or
or volume
volume as alternative
alternlltive parameters,
parameters, but basal area
is perhaps the simplest
increment is simplest toto model.

5.3.11
5.3. The Basal Area Increment Functi on
Function

5.3.1.1 increment as a function of

Basal area increment of dominant hei
height
t

Stand basal area increment for most plantation species,

species, when plotted over daninant
daninant
eho'1B the following
height, shows follOwing type of
of trend:
trend.

maximum increment
maximum increment

"

" N1

Ho
Ha Hb Hc

I is current annual basal area increment per ha, Ho

where I Ho is dominant
dominant height
height and
and N
N1, N ,
1 2
etc, ar~ different levels
etc. arg levele of
of constant stocking,
stocking, with
with N4 greater
greater than N3,
N , which
which is
is greater
greater
3
than N2'
N , and
and so
so on.
on. The curve has three regions which can be distinguished
distingttlshed for the purposes
2
of practical data
data analysis:
analysis:
 - 70
70 -

1. HatetoHb,
The range Ha ' \ shows
shows increment rising sharply
sharply to a maximum and then falling
again. There are strong
strong differences between
between stocking
stocking classes.
classes. This part of of
the curve is
is difficult
difficult toto fit
fit with
with simple
simple regression
regression models.
models. With some
sane species,
species,
it occurs at
at too
too early
early an
an age to be
age to be represented
represented in
in sample
sample plot
plot data.
data.

2. 1ft, to
The range Hb He shows
to E., shows aa strong
strong decline
decline in
in basal
basal area
area increment
increment with
with time
time
(increasing He) and marked
(incraasing Ho) marked differences
differences between
between stocking
st ocking classes.
classes. This part of
of
the curve can easily
easily be modelled by eeveral
seversl of the regression functions
fmlCtions of the
in figure
type shown in figure A.2.1
A. 2. 1 in
in Appendix
Appendix A. The following model includes the
effect of stocking:

In 1g b0 + b1 H b2 N Ho-k

can be given
The coefficient k can (1. 22 etc.)
given assumed values (1, etc.) or
or fitted
fitted by
by nonlinear
nonlinear
regression. Naturel (base e) are used to transfona
Natural logarithms (base I as this sim-
transform I
plifies the use of
of an integral
integral form
fom of
of this model (see section 5~3.3).
(see section 5f3.3).
3. Beyond He. the differences between
between stocking
stocking classes
classes becomes
becanes negligible
negligible and
and the
basal area
area increment
increment will
will be
be almoet
almost constant.
constant. This part of of the curve is beyond
of mean
the culmination of mean annual
annual volume
volume increment
incrsnent in
in most
most epecies9
species, but
but will
will be
be
relevant
relevant to yield prediction in long rotation sawlog
sawlog stands.
stands. Model (1)(1) above
produces a satisfactory
satisfactory type
type of
of response
response in
in this
this region.
region.

It is difficult, as as has
has been
been noted,
noted, to
to find
find aa well
well behaved
behaved linear
linear function
function that
that fits
fits
the entire
entire range
range of
of this
this curve
curve without
without bias
bias over
over"any
any portion
portion ofof it.
it. Because
Because the
the point
pointHi°Ht,
usually occurs early in the life of the stand, stand, it
it is
is better
better to
to fit
fit aa function
function such
such asas (1)
(1)
above only to
to data
data beyond
beyond the maximum Igt
the maximum Igi and
and to
to predict
predict standing
standingbasal
basal area
areaGGatat Hb
Hb from
from
aa yield function in terms
tel'l1ls of
of stocking.
stocking. For example:

Go eel:31N+ ble -(2)

-(2)

where Go is
is the
the initial
initial basal
basal area,
area, at
at a.
a defined dominant height
height Hj"
14109and
anddepends
depends only on
only an
stocking at that
the stocking that point in
in time,
time, regardless
regardless of
of previous stand
stand history.
history.

5.3.1.2
5.3.1.2 other
Other methods of
of predicting area increment
redictin basal area increment

Basal area. increment

Baaal area incrAnent can
can be predicted as a function of of aga or of
age or of standing basal
bezel area.
area.
age is
When age is need,
used, different
different sets
sets of
of increment
increment curves
curves are
are required
required for
for each
eachsi-te
site index class.
class.
standing basal areas
With standing area, eatisfaetory
satisfactory models cannot
cannot be Obtained
obtained for stands
stands with very varia-
ble histories.
ble histories. Consequently, the prediction of of basal area increment
incrsnent from
fran daninant
daninant height
and stocking,
stOCking, as described
described above,
above, isis recommended.
recanmended.

5.3.1.3
5.3.1.3 L.ctinHreman_valisofincrementdata.
Practical problsns in analysis of increment data

data is
Increment data is alwaye
always vary
very variable.
variable. This in
is the combined
combined effect
effect of:
of:

1.
1, Year to year
year variation
variation in
in increment
incrEment due
due to
to climatic
climatic fluctuations.
fluctuations .

2.
2. Instrumental error.
error. Simple measurEment
measurement systems
systems such as
as diameter ta.pes
tapes may
may have
have
the same order
tha order of
of error
error as
as the increment
incrEment being
being measured,
meamll'ed.
 -
- 71
71 --

A consequence of
A of this is that large amounts of data are required to obtain satis-
factory estimates
factory estimates of
of the
the regression
regression coefficients.
coefficients. Furthermore9
Furthexmore, because
because the
the effects
effects of
of
stand densities show
different stand show. out
out only weakly through the general variation, erlreme
variation9 extrene
in stand
differences in stand density
density must
must be
be present in
in the
the data
data if
if a density-depeadent
density-dependent model isis
constructed.
to be constructed.

The best increment

incrment fnnctions
functions may
may maly
only have coefficients of detexminstion
determination of between
between
and 0.8.
0.7 and 0.8. To test the suitability of sa particular model
model under
under these
these circumstances,
circumstancee9 it it
must be
be used
used in
in its
ito integral
integral form
foxm (or
(or as
as part
part of
of aa simulation
simulation model) to predict final
final yields.
function which do not
Small biases in the increment function nct show
show up graphically or by direct residual
residual
large errors in yield prediction because error in the increment functicn
analysis can produce large function
is always cumulative.

5.3.2 Constructin sualag22±12mLa121_jantILLE2a2-1222

Constructing a Growth Model with Spacing Experiment Det... 14arsh's Response
I\ypotheais
.1n2ihatia
to develop
possible to
It is possible growth models
develop growth modelsbased
basedononspacing
spacingexperiments
experimentsofof the
the type
described in section 29
2, using simplified graphical techniques?
techniques, which can give accurate pre-
dictions for the grouth
dictions growth of
of stands subject
subject to a variety of
of different
differen"t thinning treatments.
treatments.
The basis of
of this method
method is
is March's
Marsh's hypothesis:
hypothesis:

increnent of
"The increment of thinned stands
etands is equivalent
equivalent to that
that of unthinned stands of the
stocking (measured
same stocking stems per
(measured in aterns per unit area) and density
denSity (neanured
(measured in basal area
area
0:1' volume
or volume per unit area)?
area) , but of
of younger
younger age
age (i
(i..e.
e. the age at
the age at which
whieh they
they had
had the
the
sarne basal area or
same area)". 1/
or volume per unit area)". 11
validated mith
This hypothesis has been vulidated with several
several sub-tropical species and appears to
to
give accurate and nnbiased
\U1biaeed estimates
estimates of
of growth
growth follomdng
following thinning9
thinning, provided that the growth
grCl>ri:h
is measured over
is over not less than
than 33 years.
years. The method
method proceede as follows:

(1) graph the spacing

First graph spacing experiment
elq)eriment reaults
results using smoothed means for each
each
level, using
stocking level? using baaal aroo aver
basal area over age
age (figure
(figure 5.11).
5.11).

(2) Define the thinning treatment to be used in iii terms of both the basal area at
-whichthinning
which thinningtakes
takesplaoe
place and
and the
the basal area
area and
and stocking
stocking to
tobe
beremoved.
renoved.

Suppose for example we have a treatment schedule as

0.8 foll"",,:
follows:

Plant at
at 11 300 trees/bao
trees/ha.
G after N after
N
Thin.'
Thin,' noo
no. Area
Thin at Basal Area Thinxthg Thinning
Thinning

11 28 22 900
900
2 35 28 500
33 35 30 300
CF 35 clearfell
clsarf'ell

ReBll_ onse of
of Even-aged Pine Stands to
Pine Stands to Thinning.
Thinning.
11
1/ .Marsh?
Marsh, E.K.
E.K. and
and Burgers?
:Burgers,
T.F. 1973. The Reeponse
Forestry in
Forestry in S.
S. Africa? 141 103-111.
Africa, 14: 103-111.
 -- 72
72 --

Figure 5.11
5.11

Analysis
Analysis of
of spacing
spacingexperiment
""Periment
using Marsh's hypothesis
h.ypothesis

Basal
Basal area (m 2/ha)
area (m2/ha) Stems/ha.
stems/ha.
60
60 '' 1300

900
50
50 -

500
40

300

30
30 -
200

20

10
10 -

A2 ar /4r.. A3--I.r 41+-A4-*I

o0 56 16
10 15
1 '5 20
2I0
1

25
Age (years)
Age (years)
 -- 73
73 --

(3) Draw the treatment

treatment schedule on the graph (broken
(broken lines
lines on
on figure 5.11) and
figure 5.11) and from
from
Marsh's hypothesis
hypothesis determine
detennine the
the time
time interval
interval between
between thinningp.
thinnings.

Thin now
nO... Apparent Age Interval Amat
Real !£e of Thinuas
at Time of ~in"g

11 0-8 8 8
2 8.5-13.5 5 13
13
3 14.5-18.5
14.5-18.5 4 17
CF
GP 20-23 3 20

(4)
(4) Reconstruct
Reconstruct the basal
basal a:rea/age
area/age rela:tionship
relationship using
using the
the correct
correct age
age axis
axis for
for the
the
thinned stand. It is then possible
thinned stand. possible to
to construct
construct the
the various
various other yield
yield stati-
stics for ·the relation to
the stand in relation to age.
age.

A
A variation anon this method
method allows aa single diagram ·to to be
be used
used for construcing yield
curves for different site
site classes.
cla:sses. This using dominant heightv
This involves ueing height, instead
instead of
of agep
age, as
as
x-axis of
the x-axis of the
the graph.
graph. Height
Heigirt is
is then
then used
used a:s
as aa sit&-dependent tranBfonna~iollof
site-d endent transformatipn ~ .nth
ofa41(2 with
the age intervals being
being determined
detennined via
via the
the site
site index ClU"res. ~'hl.s
index curves. method can
This method can also
also be
be use3.
used
where the "Pacing
, pacing experiment
experiment data
data do not
not adilquately caver a range of S1.
adequately cover tes, to provide hype-
sitesp hypo-
yield tables
thetical yield tables for
for such
such sites.
sites. Note
Not e however
however that
that the
the stibstitution
substitution ofof dominant
dominant height
height
for separate site-age
site-a.ge combinations
cOOlbinations may not always give a sufficiently accurateaocurate representation
representati.on
sit&-dependent responses.
of site-dependent responses.

Increment
Increment fUnctions obtained from
functions Obtained from pennanent sample plots
permanent samp/e plots of uncontrolled spacing or
frOOl tree increment cores can be
from construct curves
be used to construct ourves for stand
etand ba:sa.l
banal area of of unthinned
different stockingsv
stands at different stockings, which
"hich may
may then
then be
be analysed
a.ns.lysed graphically
graphically as
as above.
abave. This
This isis
convenient when the users ofof a particular
particular growth
growth model do not have aceess
access to t.o computing
cOOlputillg
equipment.
equipment.

5.3.3 Conversion of Gromh Models to Yield r~odels

Growth Models Modelz by Intefnmtion
Integration

5.3.3.1 Introduction

The mathematical integration of of aa banal

basal area
area increment
increment function for a given
fUnction for given series
of thinning operations results
thinning operations results in
in aabasal
basal area yield
yield functionfor
fUnction for that
that thinning series. Math~
thinning series. Mathe-
integration
matical integration has advantages over
advnntages over simulation as a way of using a growth model il1 that
way of using a growth model in that
no special computing
computing equipment
equipment is needed. On the other
is needed. other hand
hand,t many
many deceptively
deceptively Simple
simple gl'owth
growth
models (e.g.
(e.g. equation
equation (1)
(1), section 5.3.1.1) may
section 5.3.1.1) be very
may be very difficult
difficult to
to integrate.
l.ntegrate.

This method assumes an an elementary knowledge of differential and

elementary knowledge and integral calculus
oalculus
on the part
an part of
of the
the res
research
earch worker.

Basic theory
5.3.3.2 Basic theory

f we have an increment function of

IIf sho"" below2
of the type shown beloWI
 -74-
- 74-

where q is
is any
any growth
growth rate
rate (basal
(basal area,
area, diameter
diameter or
or volume
vollJlJle growth) and tt is the time axis,
axis,
then the growth
then rate equation
growth ''ate is represented
equation is represented very
very generally
generally by:

q f(t) )

incrementcurve
curveis
is the total accumulated

'1
whilst
Whilst the area under this increnEllt yield..
aCCUlllUlated yield. Thus
Thus the accu-
mulated yield up
mulated yield up to
to time
time t,
t, is given by:
1
Q tt Qo + qedt
q.dt (2)

where Q0
Where the accumulated yield at the start of
Qo is ·the the period,
of the to.
period, to.

For an unthinned
unthinned stands,
stand, the
the basal
basal area/age
area/age curve
curve represents
represente the
the integral function
equivalent to equation
equivalent equation (2)
(2) above
ab ovewith
withQQ =- 0 and ttaO.= 0e &nee any
libnce functionfitted
any function fitted to data
fran un·thinned
from unthinned stands provides
provides an alreagy alrea8.
integrat~
y integrat2d fo,,"
form of growth
growth model.
model. Consequently,
if any
if any data
datafrom
from aaspacing
spacingexp_eriment
experiment isis fitted with
Idth aa yield function dependent an stand
dependent on
density, then thatthat yield
yield ftinction
function can
can be used to accurately
used to predict the
accurately predict of thinned
the growth of
s·tands.
stands. This is a generalization of of Marsh's hypothesis
h;ypothesis to
to any
any type
type of
of growth
growth function
function
any variables.1/
using any variables. 1 /

5.3.3.3
5.3.3.3 Alicatio_pyrE
Application of an intesml1 yield niostotoditya.r.ten
eld model different thinning treatments
thinning_keatments

If an integral yield model has been fitted to

been fitted to data fran
from unthinned stands
stands which
predicts basal area
area from
from dominant
daninant height and stocking, thus:

G
G =
= f(B.
f(H , N)
o

Maialma504,1131.alca-14M.M.VAImmo

1/
.1/ Marsh's hypothesicasasdiscussed
)larsh' B h;ypothesis discussedearlier
earlier is
is equivalent to integration
equivalent to of a function
function of
of
the form:
form:
= f(G N)
 - 75
75 -

if the
Then if the stand
stand is
is thinned at a dominant
daninant height H
Ht to aa stocking N
Ntt, the
the yield
up to the'
up to the time
time of
of thinning
thinning will
will be:
be: t t

is(Ht5 No) ( 2 )

where No
where is the
N is the initial
initisl stocking
stocking (after
(after early
early mortality
mortality is
is accounted
accounted for).
for). the thinning
I f the
If thinning
ratio (g.f.
ratio (c.f. section 5.4) is:
section 5.4) is:

Tr m :. %
..• G' '
T /0

pai'ticular thinning
then for this particular thinning the standing
standing crop
orop basal area after thinning will
will be:
be:

G' ~
t ( 3 )

--------
Tr/Gt

Whilst an interval tt + ii after

whilst the yield at an thinning will be:
after the thinning

G. = Gt f ( .) - f(ili 9 Nt ) (4)

5.3.3.4 Example of
5.3.3.4 2...b21214a1P °f use
use of an intepy.l :yield model
ot_miattEal.21.211-_Et2A21
Figure 5012shows
Figure 5.12 shows data
data from
fran a spacing
a spacing experiment
experiment in Lin.u.
in Pinus patula stands at Kwira,
Kwirag
Tanzaniag Experiment 345. In all there were 88 treatmentsg
Tanzania, designated EXperiment treatments, laid
laid out
out systematicallyv
systematically,
with 22 replicates
replicates for
for each
each treatment
treatment 'using rectangular plots
using rectangular of 0.08 ho.
plots of ha. 5.12 shows
Figure 5.12
only the from 44 plots at stockings
the data fran stocld.ngs of 173g 3471
of 173, 347, 694
694 and
and 11 388 etems/ha.
etEms/ho. A model
model to
predict standing
standing basal area was""s fitted to the Whole
whole set of (192 Observations)
of data (192 observations) by
by
weighted multiple linear
linear regressiont using the model:
regression, USing

In G
InG a= b +b H*+bE+bEH*
H* ( 5 )
o
bo 1,11 2
b2E 3
b3EH*

where
Where H* m l/(H
1/(Ho -
o
- 1.3)
1.3)

and E - 100/IN
100/,(-7

The model was weighted by G excessive bi~

G to avoid the excessive bial to~
towards lower values thot
that
often results when aa logarithmic
logarithmic trsnsformation
transformation is used. An R
is used. of 0.95
R of was obtained with
0.95 was
coefficient values:
b
bo
0
4.0865
4.0865
bb1 1.5991
1.5991
1
b
b22 0.047e38
0.647838
b -4.3063
3
b3

The model is shown on 5.12 overlaid

on figure 5.12 overlaid on
on data
data from
fran 44 treatments.
treatments.
 -- 76
76 --

Figure 5.12 spacing ~., Tanzania,

uperiment 345 at Kwirat
Spacing experiment
in Pilaus
in Pinus patula
patula stamls
stands

60
60 -
!l: Ey
11;::1 To
TO bAIe
DATA
+ "T~..s/MA
t'liB sre-msh4A
1388
0
O 6 '14-
694. 0

......... a-a l4'

341 $TEMS/WI.
'"
:z:
60 "
--'-'•
l:
X
X 1'73
(73
"
-- P'ITTE'b
F I TTED Ot)E1
MOto" .. /fr

<i
li
.....'" 40
14.0
([
42
tI
't

ic.t
<7
30

~
'4"
!
V)
\I)
2..0
2,0 -

10 -

o 5 /0 /5 20
:1..0 2.5
25
Dorn/NA/4T 1-1riqHT

It was desired to construct a yield table for stands planted at 11 100 stems/ha,
once at 9 years using systematic thinning to 700 stems/ha and clear
thinned once clear felled at
16 years.
16

For average
For average sites,
sites, 9 years corresponded
o01'1'eeponded to a dominant
daninant height of 17 my
of 17 m, and
and the
rotation age
rotation age of
of 16
16 years
years to
to 24
24 m.
m. The
The basal area
area at 9 years, prior to thinning,
thinning, can be
calculated directly from
fran equation
equation (5):
(5):
 -77-
-77-

H*
H* =
- 1/(17 -- 1.3)
=
- 0.0637
0.0637
E ~ 100/ j1'"'1"OO
100//7170
= 3.02
ln -
D 4.0865 4.
+ 1,5991
1.5991 x 0.0637 0.047838 xx 3.02 - 4.3063
0.0637 + 0.047838 4.3063 xx 3.02
3.02 x 0.0637
0.0637
G9
-= 3.5043
:. 0G =
= e3.5043 •= 33~26 m
33.26
2
m2/he
/ha
9

Since the
Since the thinning
thinning from
fran 11 100 to 700 stems/he waa to
stems/ha wae to be
be systematic,
eystematice the
the proportion
proportion
of basal area removed
removed would
would be
be the
the same
same as
as the
the proportion
proportion of
of stocking
stocldng removed.
removed. From
Fran equa-
equa,-
(3) above,
tion (3) abovee with TTr -= 1.0 by definition:
definitionl
r
at
Gi - 700/1 100
222Zi_122
99
1/33.26
2
- 21.17 m
m2/ha
/he

area extracted
Therefore the basal area extracted in thinning was:
wae I

G - 33.26
33.26 -- 21.17
21.17
e
2
-= 12.1 m2/ha
m /ha

clee.rfelling is obtained
The yield at clearfelling obtained from equation (4), Where
equation (4)e where f(H i' Nt) corres-
t
.2 N)
t corres-
uith HH =- 24
equation (5) entered with
ponds to equation 24 m 700 stems/hal
m, and NN =- 700 stems/ha,giving +
:t+19
giving:

f(H + , Nt)
f(Ht+ie ~= 35.98
t i
and f(Ht9
and f(H , lit)
t
Nt) is
is eqaation
equation (5)
(5) 17 m:
H =- 17
entered using H m:

f(H , Nt)
f(Ht9
t
=
= 26.97
26.97

so that basal area yield at clearfelling

clearfelling is
is given
given by:
byl

CF
a= 21.17 + (35.98
21.17 + (35.98 -- 26.97)
_ 30.18 m2/he
30.18 m2/ha

5.3.3.5
5.3.3.5 aWtbalm.JELLIalxmletkj:Ajan2j1:22.to
Fitting canpatible growth and yield models to increment data

When nosuitable
When no suitable spacing
spacing experiment
e:q>eriment data is available for
for direct fitting of
of the
integrated form
integrated form of aa yield
yield model,
modele then a growth model can
can be fitted
fitted to
to increment
increment data
data from
from
or stem analyses
permanent plots or analyses which
Which can subsequently be integrated
easequently be give aa yield
integrated to give model.
yield model.
Mutterl/
Clutter!!proposed
proposed a gromth
growth model of the type:
typel .

11
1/ Cluttery
Clutter, JO,.
J .L. 1963. .Ccrnpatible
Compatible growth
growth and
and yield
yield models
models for Labially
Loblolly Pine,
Pine. Forest
Forest
Sci. 99 (3):
(3):354-371
354-371
 78 -
-- 78-

1
I •
= a(a +
G(a + bS
bS -- lJl a)A-
inG)A-1 (6)
(6)
g
'g

Where II is basal area increment/ba/year,

where increment/ha/year, S is
is site
site index
index and
and aa and
and bb are
are coefficients
coefficients which
which
can be fstimated
gstimated by linear
linear regression
regression by
by fitting
fitting the
the function:
function.

(A
(A I + In a)
+ ln G) •
= a +
+ bS (7)
-1!.
1E
a

expression on
where the expression on the left dependent Y
left hand side is the dependent Y variable
variable and site index S is
is
the predictor
predictor variable.
variable. This
This model integrates to give the yield
yield equation:
equation.
,
lnG = a+bS- Ao (a
(a ++bS- In a )
b S - In (8)
(8)
o
Go)
A

at is the yield at the end

where Gt end of
of the period and
end Ga 0 is
is the yield at the start of of the
period. No thinnings may occur duing the predictionointerval,
prediction interval, butbut the
the basal
basal area
area after
after
thinning becomes Go
thinning becomes a for
for predicting
predicting the
the basal
basal area
area immediately
immediately prior
prior to
to the
the next
next thinning.
thinning.
o
5.3.4 of Growth
Use of arowth Models
Models bby Simulation

5.3.4.1 Requirements for

aguirements for aa simulation
simulation model
model

easier method of
Simulation modelling is a much easier of using a growth model than mathematical
integration in the majority of cases, but it does normally require access to aa small
small computer.
computer.
To use a growth
growth model by simulation, the following points must
munt be defined from
from permanent
permanent
sample plots or
or experimental
experimental data:
data.

(1) The height/age/site index function:

height/áge/site index function.

H •
- f (A,S)
Hoo 1
fi(AS)
(2) The basal
basal area increment
increment function,
function, in terms of

height area
basal area
or age and and // or
and site index stocldng/ba
stocking/ha

II =
E
ff OH
(H ' . N)
N)
g 2 oo'
or I
I
g
• f OH
f (H '. a)
22 o
G)
o'

or
or I
I =
E f (A,N,S)
gg 2
f2(A'Nr,S)

or I
I •
= f (A, a,
f2(A1 s)
G1 S) c.f. Clutter's model,
gg 2
section 4.1.1.5 for an example

of AIGOV,H0
or other combinations of A,a, N,S,H on the right hand
hand side.
side.
o
 - 79
79--

(3) relationsl!ip between stocking ranoved

The relationship removed and basal area ranoved
removed for each
thinning type:
thinning type:

N'iN =
f3(GVG)

(4) volume function

The volume functiQ1 from
fran height and basal area:

v
V •= f (H 'O)
f4(HooG)
4 o
(5) The initial basal area of the stand at Ba certain reference
reference age or height
height at
at
lIhich the simulation
Which simulation commencesv
camnences, as
as a function
functiQl of etocking:
of the planted stocking:

G =
E (N)
ff5(N)
o
Go 5 0

functions need not be

These functions be continuoua
continuous mathematical
mathanatical relationships.
relationships. Each function
may be
may be aa set
set of
of equations,
equations, one
one of
of which
1ibich is
is selected
selected by
by aa conditional
conditional process;
process; or it may be
aa set of tabulated values, as will bebe seen
seen in
in the example
BDIIIple below.

5.3.4.2 Method
Method construction of a simulation
of construction
of simulationmodel
model

Simulation models
modele are constructed
constructed by by coding
coding the functional relationships and
and the
the
interconnections between
logical interconnections between them,
them, as
as statemients
statanents in a computer language, usually
usually FORTRAN9
roR'l'RAN,
or ALGOL. This
BASIC, or This''source
source language'
language' model is then
then''compiled'
compiled' by
by the computer into its
own internal
ow internal machine code
code and
and run
run in
in the
the computer.
computer. An it runs,
As it runs , it
it will require data
defining:

1. The site index and initial

in!tial spacing of
of the stand
2. The timing intensity of
timing and intensity thinnings.
of thinnings.

The programme will then generate output,

output, in the form
fom of
of aa stand
stand table or
or grapht
graph, as
designed by the computer
canputer programmer. The simulation can
can be divided into two logically
distinct phases:

(1) The initializatian

initialization phase, where
>ohere the initial
initial values
valu!'s of
of stand
stand basal area,
area, height
and stocking are
are defined
defined and
and table
table headinge
headings are
are printed
printed out.
out.

(2) The d.ynamic

dynamic phase inin which
lIhioh the
the growth
growth of
of the
the stand
stand over
over AA is
is computed
computed and
and added
added
existing growing
to existing growing stock;
stock; any required harvesting
harvesting operations are carried out;out,
and the age of the stand
stand is incremented
incranented byby BB and
and the
the process repeated.
repeated. During
sunmaries of
the dynamic phase, summaries of growing
growing stock
stock are
are printed out. The dynamic
printed out.
terminated When
phase is terminated >ohen the
the stand
stand is
is clearfelled
clearfelled or or aa previously
previously set
set time
time
limit is reached. (A (A is
is aa peri'od"
period of time (usually
(usually one
one to
to five
five years)
years) and
and BB is
is
the length ofof the period.)

5.3.4:3 &!!mple
5.3.4.3 of aa simple
&ample of simple simulation
simulation model

In
In this example, we construct
this example, construct aa simple simulation model
simple simulation model in BASIC for even-aged
""",,-aged Pinus f!l:!2!
patula stands.
patula stands. The functions
functions in
in the
the model
model are
are as
as follows:
follows:
 80 -
-80-

(1)
(1) The height-age function is taken from Alder 11
1/ and is:

in H = bo + bi/A + ((In S - 0042) (b2 + b3/A)

where 0'
where bb9 b
2
,
b , b are obtained
obtained from regression analysis from
3have the values:
fran PSP
PSI' data and
for P. patu
for Po a wDich
Ic3atula i
ch3have

b = 3.6068
boo
b ~
= -17.513
1
1

b =
m 0.008057
b22
b ~
= 0.3308
0.3308
1)3 3
whilst cc , c
whilst defined as:
are defined as:
1 2
c2

b /15
=
boo ++ b1115
= b
cl 1
c
C2 b + b/15
2 + 1)3/15
- b2
B
2
index age
The index for site
age for index is 15 years.
site index

(2) area increment

(2) The basal area incrElllent function
function is
is derived
derived fran
frcm Experiment 345, Kwiral
fteriment 3451 Kldra,
Tanzania,
Tanzania, by tabulating mean basal area increment
incrElllent by classes of stocking and
height, giving
dominant height, giving the
the repult
result shown
sho"" in
in Table 5.1. This table is
Table 5.1. is used
used
directly in
directly in the
the programme
programme without
ldthout further
further analysis.
analysis.

(3) The
The thinning ratios
ratios are defined by
by the folloldng
following simple assumptions:
assumptions:

(a) Systematic thinning:

thinning: Tr
Tr
-= 1.0
1.0

(b) Selective low

low thinning: First thinning T = 0.7
~
r
Tr
Later thinninge
thinnings = 0.9
TEO.
Tr 9
r

(4) The volume function is the Pinun

(4) Pinus patula
patula stand
stand volume equation
equation for Kenya:
2
V
V N(-O.0072 ++ 0.0000~887
= N(-0.0072
B 0.0000887 Dg2 0.00002077 HHDD
Dg +.0.00002077
t
+
4. 0.000032765 Dg:a)
0.000032765 Deli) g

This
This gives tctal
total volume. The
The 20 cm
merchantable volume to 20 em diameter top is
calculated
calculated by:

Vm = (0.9735 2 - 21.9737
Vt(0.97352
= V 21.9737 axp (-0415407 Dg))
exp (-0.15407 Dg»
VM t
(5) Initialization of basal
Initialization of basal area
area is
is done
doneby
by-Lining
using aa stand
stand basal
basal area
area of
of zero
zero at
at
age 3 years.

11
1/ D. 1977. A
Alder, D. A Growth and Management
Management Model
Model for Coniferous Plantations in East
];hat
Africa. D.
Africa, Do Phil.
Phil. thesis,
thesis, Oxford University.
University.
 -- 81
81 --

Table 5.1
L1212_541

VAUlES
VALUES OF :BASAL AREA
IlF BASAL AREA IATREMLIVI TABULATED BY STOCKIAU
INCmMENT TABULATED SroCKIKl AAM
AND HEIGHT
FOR EKPERDIENl' 345,
FOR EXPKRIMENT 345, KWIRA1
KWIRA, TAA2ANIA
TANZANIA

Spacing class,
Spacing class, m.
m.
2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9
Dominánt
Dominant
Height, m.

3-5 3.89 2.87

5-7 6.59 3.69
7-9 7.22 4.49
9-11 7.33
7033 6.10 3.83
11-13 5.90 5.39
5039 4.55 3.56 3.17
13-15 4.59 4.59 4.41 3.50 2.84 1.91
15-17 2.82 3.30 4.35 2.93 2.34 2.18
2. 18 1,51
2.51
17-19 2.24
2.24 2.22 3.34 2.50 2.00 2.11 1.54 ·
19-21 2.09 2.03
2. 03 2.40 1.73 1.42 1.72 1.43
21-23 2.01 11.57
.57 1.99 1.32 1.28 1.37 1.27
1. 27
23-25 1.86 1.93 1.59

Values within
Values wi the table
thin the table are
arebasal
basalarea
areaincrement
incranentper haper
perha perannum.
annum.
E.g. at
E.g. at a2spacing
a s p acing of
2
oi'4.5m
4.5 mand
anda adominant
daninent heigbt
height of
of12
12mt
m, increment
incremE<lt
is
is 4.55 m fha/yr.
4.55 mihahro

The programme
The programme listing is
listing is given
given below:
below:

5 SELECT
SELECT PRINT
PRINT 005(6)4)
005(6~)
10 REM EXAMPLE
10 EXAMPLE OFOF STAND
STAND GROWTH
GROWTH SIMULATION
SIMULATION MODEL
MODEL
20
20 REM INITIALIZATION PHASEPHASE
30 PRINT
PRINT "SIMULATION
"SIMULATION MODEL
MODEL FOR FOR PINUS
PINUS PATULA
PATULA PLANTATIONS"
PLANTATIONS"
40
40 PRINT "GIVE
"GIVE INITIAL
INITIAL STOCKING
STOCKING AND AND SITE
SITE INDEX,
INDEX, PLEASE"
PLEASE"
50 INPUT N,S
50 INPUT N,S
60
60 REM READ TABULATED INCREMENT
INCREMENT VALUES
70
70 DIM T(7,11)
DIM T(7,11)
80 MAT
80 MAT READ
READ TT
90 DATA
90 3.89,6.59,7.22,7.33,5.90,4.59,2.82,2.2~,2.09,2.01,1.86
DATA 3.89,6.59,7.22,7.33,5.90,4.59,2.82,2.24,2.09,2.01,1.86
100 DATA 2.87,3.69,4.49,6.10,5.39,4.59,3.30,2.22,2.03,1.57,1.93
100 2.87,3 . 69,4.49,6.10,5.39,4.59,3.30,2.22,2.03,1.57,1.93
110 DATA
110 0,0,0,3.83,4.55,4.41,4.35,3.34,2.40,1.99,1.59
DATA 0,0,0,3.83,4.55,4.41,4.35,3.34,2.40,1.99,1.59 .
120
120 DATA
DATA 0,0,0,0,3.56, 3. ~: c, 2.93,2.50,1.73,1.32,0
0,0,0,0,3.56,3.2.93,2.50,1.73,1.32,0
130 DATA 0,0,0,0,3.17,2.84,2.34,2.00,1.42,1.28,0
130 0,0,0,0,3.17,2.84,2.34,2.00,1.42,1.28,0
140
140 DATA
DATA 0,0,0,0,0,1.91,2.18,2.11,1.72,1.37,0
150 DATA 0,0,0,0,0,0,1.51,1.54,1.43,1.27,0
150 0,0,0,0,0,0,1.51,1.54,1.43,1.27,0
152
152 REM
REM READ SITE INDEX
INDEX CURVE
CURVE COEFFICIENTS
COEFFICIENTS
153 READ
READ BO,B1,B2,133
BO,B1,B2,B3
154
1511 DATA
DATA 3.6068,-17.513,0.008057,0.3308
3.6068,-17.513,0.008057,0.3308
 -
- 82
82 --

155
155 LET Cl=BO.B1/15
LET C1=B0+B1/15
156
156 LET C2=B2+B3/15
C2=B2.B3/15
160
160 REM SET STAND BASAL AREA TO ZERO,AGE ZERO,AGE TO
TO 33
170 LET G=O
G=0
180 LET A=5
180
190 REM
REM READ
READ DETAILS
DETAILS OF STAND TREATMENT
TREATMENT
200 PRINT "HOW
200 PRINT "HOW LONG IS IS THE
THE ROTATION,
ROTATION, PLEASE"
PLEASE"
210
210 INPUT R R
220
220 DIM A1(10),N1(10),T$(10)
Al(10),N1(10),T$(10)
230
230 PRINT "HOW
"HOW MANY THINNINGS,
THINNINGS, PLEASE"
PLEASE"
240 INPUT
INPUT MM
250 IF
IF MM == 00 THEN
THEN 300
300
260 FOR
FOR 1=1 I=1 TO M M
270 PRINT
PRINT "GIVE
"GIVE AGE,STEMS/HA
AGE,STEMS/HA LEFT,
LEFT, AND
AND TYPE(S/L)
TYPE(S/L) FOR
FOR THINNING
THINNING ";I
";1
280 INPUT
INPUT A1(I),N1(I),T$(1)
Al(I),Nl(I),T$(I)
290 NEXT II
290 NEXT
M=1
300 LET M=1
305 SELECT PRINT
305 SELECT PRINT 215(120)
215(120)
310 REM
REM PRINT
PRINT TABLE
TABLE HEADINGS
HEADINGS
320 PRINT
330
330 PRINT TAB(20);"GROWING STOCK";TAB(80);"THINNINGS"
340
340 PRINT
350 PRINTUSING 360 360
360 %%AGE
AGE HDOM
HDOM STEMS/HA DIAM(G)DIAM(G) BA/HA VOL/HA VOL/HA(20CM)
VOL/HA VOL/HA(20CM)
VOL/HA VOL/HA(20CM)
VOL/HA(20CM)
370 REM
370 REM DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC PHASE
PHASE OFOF SIMULATION
SIMULATION
380 REM
380 REM CALCULATE
CALCULATE DOMINANT
DOMINANT HEIGHT
HEIGHT
390 LET
390 LET H=EXP(B0+B1/A+((LOG(S)-C1)/C2)*(B2+B3/A))
H=EXP(BO+B1/A.«LOG(S)-C1)/C2)"(B2.B3/A))
400 REM SELECT HEIGHTHEIGHT AND
AND STOCKING
STOCKING CLASS
CLASS FOR
FOR GROWTH
GROWTH INCRMENT
INCRMENT
410 LET H1=(H-1)/2
410 LET Hl=(H-l)/2
411 IF
411 IF H1(12
H1(12 THEN
THEN 420
420
412 LET H1=11
412 LET H1=11
420 LET E1=SQR(1/N)*100-1
420 LET E1=SQR(1/N)"100-1
430 IF T(E1,H1)=0 THEN 920 920
440 REM
440 REM ADDADD INCREMENT
INCREMENT TO TO CURRENT
CURRENT BASAL
BASAL AREA
AREA
450 LET
450 LET G=G+T(E1,H1)
G=G+T(El,Hl)
460 REM
460 REM TEST
TEST IF IF THINNING
THINNING REQUIRED
REQUIRED ININ CURRENT
CURRENT YEAR
YEAR
IF A=A1(M)
470 IF A=Al(M) THENTHEN 670
670
480 REM CALCULATE MEAN BA DIAMETER,DIAMETER, && VOLUMES
VOLUMES
490 LET
490 LET DD =SQR(G/(N*0.00007854))
=SQR(G/(N*0.00007854))
LET V=N*(-0.0072+0.00002887*D!2+0.00002077*H*D+0.00003276*D!2*H)
500 LET V=N*(-0.0072.0 . 00002887*D!2.0.00002077*H*D.0.00003276*D!2*H)
LET V1=V*(0.97352-21.9737*EXP(-0.15407*D))
510 LET Vl=V*(0 . 97352-21 . 9737*EXP(-0 . 15407*D))
515 IF
515 IF V1
V1 ) 0 THEN 520
) 520
516 LET
516 LET V1
V1 = = 00
520 REM PRINT GROWING STOCK DETAILS
540,A,H,N,D,G,V,V1;
530 PRINTUSING 540,A,H,N,D,G,V,V1;
540 %%###
uon ##.#
no.n UUU##
##### Huun.' ###.#
####.# HI,.n ',#U.# I'HH.n
####.# ####.#
550 REM PRINT THINNING DETAILS IF A A THINNING WAS PERFORMED
560 IF
IF T2=0 THENTHEN 600
600
570 PRINT
570 PRINT TAB(64);
TAB(64);
PRINTUSING 590,N2,D1,G1,V2,V3;
580 PRINTUSING 590,N2,D1,G1,V2,V3;
590 %% #UUD
#### ##0.#
###.# #eu .n #nno.#
###.# ####.# #Rnl .n
####.#
600 REM
REM INCREASE
INCREASE AGE AGE BYBY 1 YEAR,
YEAR, && REPEAT
REPEAT DYNAMIC
DYNAMIC PHASE
PHASE
605 PRINT
605 PRINT
610 LET
LET AA == A+1
A+1
620 LET
LET T2=0
T2=0
IF A(= RR THEN
630 IF THEN 370
370
640 PRINT
PRINT
650 PRINT TAB(20);
TAB(20);"END"END OF SIMULATION"
660 STOP
 - 83 -

670
670 REM SECTION
RE~ SECTION TOTO SIMULATE LOW OR
SIMULATE LOW SYSTEMATIC THINNING
OR SYSTEMATIC THINNING
680
680 REM
REM DETERflINE
DETERMINE THINNING
THINNING RATIO FROM THINNING
RATIO FROM THINNING TYPE
TYPE
690
690 IF
IF T$(M)="L"
T$(M)="L" THEN
THEN 720
720
700
700 LET T3=1
T3= 1
710
710 GO TO 760
COTO 760
720
720 IF M)l
M)1 THEN
THEN 750
750
730 LET T3=0.7
740
740 GOTO
COTO 760
750
750 LET T3=0.9
T3=0.9
760
760 REM
REM CALCULATE
CALCULATE STOCKING
STOCKING REMOVED N2 && BA
REMOVED N2 BA REMOVED
REMOVED G1
Cl
770
770 LET N2=N-Nl (M)
N2=N-N1(M)
780
780 LET G2=N1(M)/N/(T3/G)
G2=N1(M)/N/(T3/G)
790
790 LET G 1=G-G2
G1=G-G2
800
800 REM ADJUST STOCKING && BA
ADJUST STOCKING BA OF
OF RESIDUAL
RESIDUAL STAND
STAND
810 LET G=G2
LET G=G2
820
820 LET N=N1(M)
N=N1(M)
830
830 REM COMPUTE MEAN
MEAN DIAMETER
DIAMETER AND
AND VOLUMES
VOLUMES OFOF THINNINGS
THINNINGS
840
8h0 LET Dl=SQR(Gl/(N2*0.00007854))
D1=S0R(G1/(N2*0.00007854))
850
850 V2=N2*(-0.0072+0.00002887*D1!2+0.00002077*H*Dl!2+0.00003276"D1!2"H)
LET V2=N2*(-0.00724-0.00002887*D1!2s.0.00002077*H*D1!24-0.00003276*D1!2*H)
850
860 LET V3=V2*(0.97352-21.9737*EXP(-0.15407*D1!2))
V3=V2*(0.97352-21.9737*EXP(-0.15407*Dl!2))
861
861 IF V3 ) 0 THEN
) THEN 870
870
862 LET V3
LET V3 == 0C
870
870 REM INCREMENT THINNING
REM INCREMENT THINNING NUMBER
NUMBER AND
AND RETURN
RETURN TO
TO MAIN
MAIN PART
PART OF
OF
880
880 REM
REN SIMULATION
890
890 LET M=M+1
M=M+l
900 LET T2=1
910
910 GOTO
COTO 480
920
920 REM SECTION
REM SECTION TOTO ABANDON
ABANDON PROGRAM
PROGRAM WHEN
WHEN SIMULATIONS
SIMULATIONS GOES
GOES
930 REM OUTSIDE LIMITS
LIMITS OF AVAILABLE GROWTH DATA
AVAILABLE GROWTH DATA
940
940 PRINT TAB(20);"SIMULATION
PRINT TAB(20); "SIMULATION EXCEEDS
EXCEEDS RANGE
RANGE OF
OF GROWTH
GROII'TH FUNCTION"
Fm!CTION"
950
950 TAB( 20); "RUN ABANDONED"
PRINT TAB(20);"RUN ABANDONED"
960 END

The output produced

The output producedby
byone
onerun
runis
is shown in figure
shown in figure 5.13.
5.13. Table 5.2
lists
lists the
the definitions of
of each
each of
of the
the variables
variables used
used in
in the
the programme.
programme.
This simulation intended to be an
Aimulatioa programme is intended an example
example of ofthe
the flexi-
flexi-
bility
bilityofofthe
thetechnique
technique and is not intended
and is intended to
to suggest
suggest that
that the
the
functions used
specific functions used are in any sense the best or
in any ormost
most preferable
methode.
methods.
 Figure 5.13
Pigure

Cuter rizit
Canputer printout produced by stand
ro_p_ou growth
and growth
simulation model
model

SIMULATION
SIMULATION MODEL
MODEL FOR
FOR PINUS
PINUS PATULA
PATULA PLANTATIONS
PLANTATIONS
GIVE INITIAL
GIVE INITIAL STOCKING
STOCKING AND
AND SITE
SITE INDEX,
INDEX, PLEASE
PLEASE
1700
1700 23
23
HOW LONG IS THE ROTATION,
LONG IS ROTATION, PLEASE
16
16
HOW MANY THINNINGS,
THINNINGS, PLEASE
PLEASE
11
GIVE
GIVE AGE,STEMS/HA
AGE,STEMS/HA LEFT, AND TYPE(S/L)
LEFT, AND FOR THINNING
TYPE(S/L) FOR THINNING 1

8
8 700
700 S
S

....CX>
co

GROWING STOCK
GROWING STOCK THINNINGS I

AGE
AGE HDOM STEMS/HA DIAM(G) BA/HA VOL/HA VOL/HA(20CM)
BA/HA VOL/HA(20CM) STEMS/HA DIAM(G)
DIAM(G) BA/HA VOL/HA
VOL/HA VOLIHA (20CM)
VOL/HA(20CM)
5
5 6.1
6.1 1700
1700 7.0 66.5
.5 8.6 0.0
66 8.5 1700 10.
10.11 13.8
13.8 45.3 0.0
0.0
77 10.8
10.8 1700
1700 12.5
12.5 2'
21.1.1 96.0 0.0
0.0
8
8 12.9 700
700 14.2
14.2 111.1
1. 1 61.8 0.0
0.0 1000
1000 14 .2
14.2 15 .9
15.9 138.8
138.8 0.0
9
9 14.8
14.8 700 16.9
16.9 15.7
15.7 101 .6
101.6 0.0
0.0
10
10 16.5
16.5 700 18.6 19.0 137.7 0.0
1111 18.1
18.1 700 19.6 21.2 168 .4
168.4 0.0
0.0
12
12 19.5 700 20.5 23.2 198.7
198.7 10.0
13
13 20.7 700 21.4
21.4 25.3 230.1
230.1 38.5
14
14 21.9 700 22.1 26.8 257.8 63.1
15
15 22.9
22.9 700
700 22.7 28.4
28.4 285.9
285.9 89.4
16
16 23.9 700 23.5 30.3 317.9 122.6
122.6

END OF SIMULATION
 -85-
- 85-

Table 5.2

DEFINITION OFVARIABLES
DEFINITIONOF VARIABLESUSED
USEDININ STANDGROWTH
STAND GROll'J1I
SIMULATIONPROGRAKME
SIMULATION PROGRAMME

Variable Size Des cripti on of

Descrintion of use
us e

A Stand agev
Stand years
age, years

Al 10
10 List of
of ages
ages for
for thinnings
thinnings
BO
BO

Bl Coefficients for height growth function,

fUnction,
B2
representing b 0' in text
b , b , b in text
representing boy bll b29
2 b33
B3
B3
Cl
C2
C2
]
1
c ' cc2 in
l 2
growth functionv
Coefficients for height growth
representing
representing 019 in text
text
fUnction,

D Mean basal area

Mean basal area diameter of
of growing
growing stock
stock
Dl
DI Mean basal area
Mean basal area diameter
diameter of
of trees
trees removed
remO'/ed in thinning
thinning

El
E1 The stand density
The stand density class,
class9 going from1i for
going from for spacings
spacin",'" of
2-3 m
2-3 to 77 for spacings
m to of 88 m
epacings of or more
m or more

G The basal area/

The basal are/ha
he.of
ofthe
thegrowing
growing stock
st ock
Gl
G1 The
The basal
basal area/he.
are/ha ofof trees
trees renoved
removed in thinnings

G2 The basal area of growing stock immediately after

thinning
H The dominant height of the
height of the stand
stand
Hl
H1 dominant height classt
The dominant class, going for heights
from 11 for
guing from heights
3-5 Inv
3-5 to 11
m, to 11 for
for heights
heights over
over23
23mm
I A counter for thinning number during
during the l'eruling in
the T-eaaing in of
thinning details
M Initially9 the number
Initially, number of
of thinnings.
thinninga. During the dynamic
phase, represente
phase, thinning number
represents the next thinning number due
due

N The stockindhe.
The stocking/ha of
of the
the stand
stand
Nl
N1 10
10 The
The liet
list of residual
residual stockings to be
stockings to be left
left after
after each
each
thinning
1(2
N2 The
The number
number of trees
trees per ha removed in aa thinning
per he. thinning
R The
The rotation age for
for the stand,
stand, in years

S The the stand,

The site index of the stand, in
inmmdominant height at
dominant height at age
15

T 7911 The table

The table of diameter increnents correspondingto
increments corresponding to the
the
spacing class (1st
spacing (1st dimension)
dimension) and height class (2nd
(2nd dimen-
dimen-
sion). Values
Values as per table 5.1 in
table 5.1 in text.
text.
 - 86
- 86 --

Variable Size Description of use

T2 to 11 iif
Set to f the stand
stand has been
been thinned
thinned in
in the
the current
current
year of
year of simulated
simulated time, otherwise
otherwise set
set to
to O.
O. Controls
Controls
the format
the fo:nnat ofof printing.
printing.
T3
T3 Gives
Gives the
the thimling
thinning ratio
ratio Tl'
Tr as
as defined
defined in
in the
the text
text for
for
each type of
of thinning. Set to to 11 for systElnatic thinning,
for systematic thinning,
0.7
0.7 for 11st
st low thinning, 0.9 for other
other low
low thinnings.
T$ 10 A
A list each thinning. "5"
list of thinning types, for each "S"
represents
represents systElnaUc "L" thinning
systematic thinning and "L" thinning from
fran
below.
below.

\ V
V The total volume over
over bark
bark per
per ha
he of
of the
the growing
growing stock.
stock.
vi
V1 The volume o.b./he
The volume o.b./ha to aa top
top diameter
diameter limit
limit of
of 20 an, for
20 cm, for
tthe
he growing stock.
st ock.
V2 Total volume/ha
Total of thinnings.
volume/6 of thinnings.
V3
113 Volume/he em limit of
Volume/ha to 20 cm of thinnings.
thinnings.

5.4 'mINNIID
THINNING

The economic
eCCOlanic component
canponent of growth in unifonn
uniform stands managed for timber will be partly
removed in commerical thinnings. In addition, non-canmercial
canmerical thinnings. thinnings may
non-commercial thinnings may be
be carried
carried out
out
to reduce stand
stand density
density and
and give
give aa corresponding
corresponding greater
greater stand
stand mean
mean diameter
diameter in
in subsequent
subsequent
thinnings and the final
final crop.
crop.

modelling of
Obviously, the modelling of thinning
thinning is central
central to
to any exercise in
any exercise in yield
yield prediction.
A thinning operation
A thinning operation is
is very
very largely
largely characterized
characterized by
by the
the number
number of
of stems
stems per
per ha and the
he and the
basal area
area per
per ha removed. In single tree models,
he removed. models, it
it is necessary to describe the
the distri-
distri-
bution of
of removed
removed trees;
trees; but this is not necessary for stand models,
models, which are the main
subject of
of this
this section.
section.

5.4.1 Thinning Ratio

The Thinning

A
A useful way
way of
of characterizing
characterizing thinnings
thinnings is
is in
in -terna
terms of the thinning ratio:
ratio'

No.
Nó, of stems
stems left No. stEInS
left/Vb. stems before
before thinnin
thinning
Thinning ratio
Thinning ratio Basal area
area left/Basal
left asal area b e f ore thinning
t hnnl.ng
i·
a Basal area before

liith
With aa little algebra, the
the thinning
thinning ratio
ratio can
can be
be seen
seen as
as being
being equivalent
equivalent also
also to:
to:

thinnin )2
Mean BA diameter before thinning)2
(Mean
Thinning ratio =
(~Iean BA
(Mean BA diameter after thinning 2
after thinning)2

Typical values for the thinning

thinning ratio
ratio for
for different
different types
types of
of thinning
thinning are:
are:
t:ype
Thinning type Value of
Value of thinning...rags.
thinning ratio
Early low thinnings 0.6-0.8
later
Later low thinnings 0.8-1.0
Non-selective thinning 1.0
Crown thinning
thinning 1.1-1.3
 -87
- 87 -

The thinning ratio can be detemined enpirically using tenporary

determined empirically temporary plots on which
plots an
thinnings ca.rred out
thinningp are carred out by
by contractors
contractors or
or Which
which are
are marked
marked for
for thinning
thinning without actually
actually
felling the trees. The first
first technique gives a more realistic assessment,
assessment, but may not be
but may
appropriate for experimental
experiJnental types of
of thinning which
\lhich one simply wishes
wishes to evaluate on a
dynamic model.

Estimates of thinning ratios dbtained

obtained from
from pennanent
permanent sample plots
plots may
may not
not be relia-
relia-
ble, as PSPs are
are normally
nonnelly clearly
clearly marked
marked in
in the
the forest
forest and
and hence are
are unlikely
unlikely to
to receive
receive
typical treatment.
typical treatment.

5.4.2
5. 4. 2 Estimating
Est Thinning Yielda in
in St
Static
ati c Models
od els

In order to estimate the thinning yield for a particular static yield function,
function,
then the
the actual
actual thinning
thinning intensity,
intensity, defined
defined in
in terms
tems of
of stocking
stocking removed or basal area
renoved or area
removed,
removed, and the thinning ratio,
ratio, as defined above, must
munt be known.
known. ItIt is
is also necessary to
to
know whether
know whether the
the yield
yield function
function is
is based
based an
on measurements made immediately
immediately before
before thinning,
thinning,
immediately after thinning or,
or, as is most
moat normal,
nonnel, an uncontrolled mixture of measurements
meaaurements
before, after
after and
and between
between thinnings.

Assuming that H is based

that the yield function predicts mean basal area diameter and it based
on an uncontrolled mixture of data,
on datao then the diameter predicted
predioted at the time of
of thinning may
may
be assumed to be aa mean of
of before
before and
and after
after thinning
thinning diameters, viz:
diameters, viz:

Dp
DP E (Db + De.)/2
Da)/2 (1)

diameter predicted
where Dp is diameter predicted from
from the
the static
static yield
yield function
function and
and Db and Da
Db and are the
Da are the before
before
and after thinning
thinning diameters
diameters at
at that
that point
point in
in time,
time, which
which have
have to
to be
be determined.
detemined.

The
The thinning ratio
ratio also
also relates
relates the unknown diameters
the unknown Da and
diameters De and Db, giving two
Db giving two simul-
simul-
taneous equations:
equations:
/
Tr = Db 2/Da2 (2 )
(2)

These two
These two equations.
equations can
can be
be solved to give
give Da and Db:
De and Db:

Da 2Dp/(11m/i7)

Db = 2Dp -- De
Da (4)

Dt(5)
Knowing the before and after thinning mean
mean basal
basal area
area diameters,
diameters, then
then it
it is
is possible
possible
to work out the basal area renoved
removed knowing the stocking removed
removed or
or the
the stocking
stocking removed
removed
knowing area removed.
knowing the basal area removed.

In the case where thinning intensity is specified in terne

tems ofof -stocking,
atocking, then the
mean basal area diameter of the trees removed in thinninge
thinnings is given
given by:
by:

or
or
Dt(6)
Dt

Dt
= ~r~Nb_-NaNa}
DaifTr.Nb -
L vb f

nJ{Nb ~ ~~Tr}
Na.

Na
(5 )

(6)
 -- 88
8!i --

Note that
Note equations (5) and
that equations (6) are
ami (6) are independent of the aseumption (1) that
assumption (1) that predicted
predicted
diameters are
diameters are averages
averages of values immediately
of values before and
immediately before after thinning •. Thus either equation
and after thinning.' Thus either equation
(5) or
(5) or (6) can be
(6) can be used
used to
to determine
detennine mean
mean diameter
diameter of
of thinnings
thinnings if the functions are defined
if the functions are defined
in tenns
in terms of predictions of
of predictions after thinning
of after thinning diameters
diameters or
or before
before thinning
thinning diameters respectively.
diameters respectively.

All the
All the algebra
algebra leading
leading to
to the
the above
above fonnulae
formulae is
is based on the
based an simple relation:
the simple relation'
2
G =
G - N.k.Dg
N. k. Dg2

where G
where G is
is basal area, ~ is
basal area, is stocking,
stocking, kk is
is the
the constant
constant 0.00007854
0.00007854 for
for diameters
diameters in
in centi-
centi-
metres, basal
metres, basal area
area in
in mm /ha
/ha and
and stocking
stocking in numbers/ha, and
in numbers/ha, Dg is the mean basal area
and Dg is the mean basal area
diameter.
diameter. Once
Once the
the mean
mean diameter of thinnings
thinnings is
is known,
known, then
then total
total and
and merchantable volumes
merchantable volumes
can be readily oalculated
calculated from
fran a suitable
sui table volume equation
equation.

5.4.3 Fstimati¥
Estimating Thinning Yielda in
Thinning Yields in Dynamic Modele
D;yn..,ic Modele

models , both
As with static yield models, thinning intensity
both the thinning intenSity and the thinning ratio
must be
be known.
known. From these two statistics, the basal area removed for a a given stocking or
stocking removed
alternatively the stocking removed for
for aa given
given basal area can
can be
be readily
readily determined
detennined and
both parameters
both parameters of
of the
the growing
growing stock
stock adjusted
adjusted for
for the
the thinning,
thinning, with
with thinning
thinning removals
removale being
being
calculated directly. Examples have already
Eamples have already been
been discussed
discussed in
in sections
sections 5.3.3 and 5.3.4.
and 5.3.4..

An essential
An essential feature ofof thinning
thinning in dynamic models ie
is that the subsequent growth is
is
influenced by the intensity
intensity of
of thinning,
thinning, as
as stand density
density will
wil1 be
be modified following
fol1owing treat-
ment. In aa static
static model
model this does not happen and, hence, the danger of obtaining incorrect
and, hence,
results with static models
modela by applying thinning
by applying thinning treatments
treatmerlts that do
do not
not correspond
correspond to the
fitted functions.
functions.

5.5 MORTALITY

Mortality can often

often be
be regarded
regarded as
as negligible
negligible in in many
many types
types intensively
intensively managed-
managed-
unifonn forest,
uniform forest, once
once aa particular
particular crop
crop has
has become
become established.
established. In other
other cases, however,
there is
there is aa marked
marked reduction
reduction of
of stem
stem numbers
numbers over
over the
the passage
passage of
of time
time which
which must
must in
in some
some way
way
be accounted
be accounted for
for by
by the
the growth
growth and
and yield
yield model.
model. There are several
several types of of mortality
mortality which
which
must be
be considered.
considered.

5.5.1 EStablishment
Establishment Mortality
Mortality

Establishment mortality
mortality defines
defines the
the percentage
percentage ofof viable
viable seedlings
seedlings which
which fail
fail to
to
survive the
survive the firgt
first year.
year. In the case of plantations,
plantations, it
it is
is Obviously
Obviously quite
quite easy to define
easy to define
in the field, but inin the
the case
case of
of stands
stande established
established by
by artificial
artificial oror natural
natural seeding,
seeding, it
it is
is
probably better
probably better to
to consider
consider the
the absolute
absolute number
number of
of seedlings
seedlings thatthat become established,
established , rather
to consider
than to consider aa ratio
ratio defining
defining percentage
percentage eurvival
survival or
or percentage
p.e rcentage stocking.
stocking.

can also
Survival can also bebe defined
defined in
in terms
tenns of
of percentage
percentage of
of the
the area
area that
that is
is fully
fUl1y stocked,
stocked,
discussed in
as discussed in section
section 6.
6.

factors that most strongly

The factors strongly influence survival and must be considered in
in any
model constructed
constructed to
to predict it
it are:
are'

- The method and intensity

method and intensity of
of site
site preparation.
preparation.
weather at
The weather at the
the time
time of 811t&bHsba ...t and
of establishment and for
for the
the months
montha following.
following.
 -
- 89 --
89

of the
The aspect of the site.
sit e.
degree of
The degree of exposure
exposure ofof the
the site.
site.
of the top 10
The nature of 10 am
em of
of the soil, in
in particular, and of
of the soil generally.
generally.

For plantations, the following must

muzt also be considered:

- The age of
of the
the seedlings.
seedlings.
- Procedures for handling the seeldings from nursery to the forest.
forest.
The season of
of the planting
planting in relation to dormancy.

seeding by
For seeding by artificial
ar-tificial or
or natural
natural methods,
methods , one
one must
Olust consider:
consider:

PesticiaPlcoatings
Pesticidal coatings or
or treatments
treatments to
to reduce
reduce seed
seed predation.
predation.
Seed pr~treatment
pro-treatment to stimulate or improve germination.
gennination.

Obviously, determination
Obviously, detennl.nati on of
of all
all these
these parameters
parRlllaters and
and their
their inclusion
inclusion in
in aa useful
useful
quantitative model is virtually
moel is virtually impossible.
impoesible. It in
is better construct simple
better to construct Simple and robust
can easily
models that can easily be related to practices followed
followed inin aa particular
particular area
area or
or point
poini of
of
time.
time.

The model will usually

usually be in
i n the
the form
fonn of
of aa multiple
multiple regression
regression between
beiween survival
survival
(relative or absolute) and t",o
two or three of the above parameters, coded inin appronriate
appropI'"-'.at e ways -yo..
5.5.2Derl.:1z7.1)2pendent
5.5.2 Density-Dependent Mortality
Mc.)rtality;

Density-dependent
Density-dependent mortality
mortality may
may be
be aa direct
direct result
result of
of suppression
suppression,, but
but Inore
more UJ.!ually
usually
is
is indirect,
indirect, in that
that the
the less
less vigorous
vigorous trees,
trees, with
with crows
crowns lower
lower iinn the
the canopy,
canopy, become
become sus-
sus-
ceptible to disease or
or animal damage
demage to
to aa much
much greater
greater degree
degree than
than more
more vigorous
vigorous trees.
trees .

This type of mortality

mortality can usually
usually be
be anitted
omitted from
from models
models ofof stands
stands planted
planted at
at wide
wide
spacings and
andgrown
grownon short rotations or subject to adequate thinning. However,
on short However, many growth
stands or
and yield predictions relate to unthinned stands or to stands inin Which
which thinning has been
delayed and
and hence
hence some
seme effort
effort must
must be
be made
made to
to include
include this
this type
type ofof mortality.
mortality.

A Reineke line,
A useful model is the Reinéke line, in
i n 1Ihich
which stocking isis plotted
platted against dominant
domInant
height, using logarithmic scales on both axes. This gives a
height, USing logarithmic scales on bcr',h axes. This gives a diagram of the type shown in
5.15. The Reineke line defines
figure 5.15. defines the maximum stocking
stocking that
that can be sustained at any
can be any
given dominant height.
height.

If stands
stands are normally
normally well thinned, it
well thinned, it may
may bebe difficult
difficult to to obtain
obtain the
the necessary
necessary
data to construct
construct this
this line. advantages in
line. There are advantages in establishing in in aa given plantation a
of about
series of about 10
10 plots
plots of
of forest
forest established
established atat 11 xx 11 or
or 22 xx 22 mm an
on widely different sites
widely different sites
provide this
to provide this data.
data. This obviously does not not apply in casescases where
Where there
there are
are extensive
extensive
unthinned stands.
unthinned stands.

In static yield models, density-dependent mortality is

models, density-dependent is implicit
implicit in
in the
the mean
mean diameter/
diameter/
functions and need not be
dominant height functions be explicitly
explicitly defined.

In dynamic
dynamic growth models,
models, the reduction
reluption in stocking caused
caused by
by mortality
mortality will
will be
be
affected by
effected by aa simulated
simulated low
low thinning,
thinning, with
with aa thinning
thinning ratio
ratio aramnd
around 0069 whenever the
0.6, whenever the
stocking ft.eight relationship
stocking/height relationship moves
moves to
to aa point
point to
tothe
theright
rightofofthe
theRein-eke
Reineke line.
line.
 -90-
90

Figure 5.15

Relationship betwesn stocking

Relationshi between stocking arid
and dominant
dominant height
height aver
over time
in
in an unthinned.
unthinned heavily
heavil stocked unifonn forest
uniform fprest

Stocking/ha.
stocking/ha,
(log scale
(log Reineke line
lino
initial
initial. onset of
ofden.sity.-dependent
density-dependent
density mortality

The arrow
The arrowindicates
indicates the
direction of
of progression
progression
over time
time

Dominant height
Dominant height
(log scale)
Bcale)

Note that
that although the Reineke line will be very well defined for a single stand,
stand,
its position and slope
its position slope may
may be
be dependent
dependent on
on site.
site. The
The lowest
lowest part
part of
of the
the line
line may
also tend to bend downwards, giving aa slight curve.
downwards, giving curve.

5.5.3
5.5.3 Disease
Disease and Pest Mortality

5.5.29 some aspects of

As mentioned in section 5.5.2, of disease and peat
pest related mortality
can be implicitly included inin aa simple
simple density-dependent model. However,
However, there
there are
are many
many
where the
cases where the disease
disease or
or pest
pest incidence
incidence is
is epidemic
epidemiC in
in nature
nature and
and tends
tends to
to occur
occur as
as out-
out-
breaks following
breaks following particular
particular patterns
patterns of
of weather
weather and
and moving
moving outwards
outwards from
from epicentros
epicentres ofof
infection.
infection. modelling such
Techniques for modelling such problems are
are somewhat
somewhat beyond
beyond the
the scope
scope of
of this
manual.
manual. Such models are often
often stochastic, inin that only
only the
the probability
probability of
of an
an outbreak
outbraek can
can
be predicted.
be

probability of
The probability of an
an outbrealc
outbraek may
may be a function of
of weather pattern, condition of of
forest growing
the forest growing stock
stock oror of
of distance
distance from
fran another
another outbreak
outbreak area.
area. From
From aa managerial
managerial point
point
of view,
view, the probability of of an outbreak
outbraek can
can be
be used
used to
to assess
assess the
the erpected
expected value
value of
of the
the crop
crop
some future
at some future point in
in time
time and
and hence
hence the
the opportunity
opportunity cost
cost of
of pre-emptive
pre-emptive felling
felling or
or of
of
taking or
taking or failing
failing to
to take
take control
control measures.
measures.
 - 91
91 -

5.5.4
5.5.4 Mlndthrow and
Nindthrow Fire Dama-'e
and Fire Damage

As with
As with pest
pest and
and disease
disease problemsv both windthrow
problens, both windthrow andand fire
fire damage
damage effects
effects have
have
density-dependent and density-independent
density-dependent and density,-independent effectsveffects, with
with the
the latter
latter tending
tending to
to be
be catastrophic
catastrophic
in nature,
in nature, i.e.
i.e. destroyingthe
destroying the whole
"hole stand.
stand. Again, the catastrophic
catastrophic component can only
canponent can only be
be pre-
pre-
dicted as a probability of occurrence, dependentcm
dependent CIt climatic
climatic and
and site
site factors,as
factors, as well
well as
as the
the
dicted asa probability of occurrences,
condition of
condition of' the
the growing
growing stock.
stock. With fire, additional
With fire, additional factorsv
factors, such as the
such as time since
the time since the
the
last controlled burning and the use
last controlled burning and the use of low of low pruningv
pruning, may be important
important variables
variables in
in determining
determining
probability of
the probability of catastrophic
catastrophic damage.
damage.

The successful predicti on of

successful prediction of the
the probability
prcbabili ty of
of aa catastrophic ev.."t is
catastrophic event is extremely
extremely
difficult where
difficult where such
such events
events are
are rare.
rare a Where
Whe?e firev
fire, wind damage oror certain peets
pests or diseases
are normal, such models maybe
such models may be constructed; butbut it is it
is still
still likely
likely to require a careful
process of
of data
date. gathering
gathering and
and evaluation
evaluation over
over about
about 20
20 years
years before
before anything
anything useful
useful may
may
It
emerge. It should also be noted that the parameters for such models must
for such must be continually
revisedv as they
revised, as they are likely to bebe very
very sensitive
sensitive to
to climatic
climatic fluctuations.
fluctuations.

5.6 STAND VOWME PREDICTION'

STAND VOLUME PREDICTION

Inthe
In the foregoing
foregoing parts59of
parts of section various methods5,of predicting
section varioua dominant
methods of predicting danina."t height,
heightv
basal
basal area,area, stocking
stocking and and mean basal area area diameter
diameter have have been
been discussed.
discussed. The final
final stage in
aa yield prediction system systen for a a single stand is is to use these variable.
variables to
tO predict
predict to'tal
total and
and
merchantable volume.
merchantable volume.

Part II of
of this manual has
has dealt
dealt exhaustively
exhaustively with
with the
the techniques 0::: measuring
techniqu.ea of measuring and
and
modelling the
modelling the volume
volume of
of individual trees. This section otilv
individual trees. C!'Ily concerns iteelf with
concerns iicelf withaaresum6
resurn~
of
of methods models of
methods particularly appropriate to models of stand
stand volume fran
from the
the parameters
parameters normally
calculated in a yield
yield model.

5.6.1 Stand Volume Equations

SancIVolquatjons BasedBased on Dominant
on Dominant HehtHeight
tuqc1and Basal Area
33asal Area

Tctal
Total stand volume, either
either to
to the
the tip
tip or
or to
to some
some small
small diameter
diameter limit
limit such
such as 10 cm,
e.s 10 ern.
can
can be
be accurately predic'ted by an
predicted by an equation
equation using
using basal
basal area
area and
and dominant
dominant height.
height. Typical
equat ions are:
equations

(1) V
V - b0
~ bO +-> bl.G.H
b1.G.H (linear)

(2 ) via
V/G =
~ b0 + b1.H
bO b1.H (linear, weighted by
(linear by G)

(3 ) log
log VV = b0 blolog GG + b2.1og HH
bO + b1.10g
~ (logarithmic)
(logarithmic)

2
(4) V/G
V/G ~ b0 +
bO bl.H +
+ b1.H + b2 .H
b20H2 (quadratic,
(quadraticv weighted
weigtted by
by G)

A wide variety of other is possible. A£

ether models is has been discussed
As has discussed in
in Part
Part I.
Iv sane
some
form
form of weighting is normally desirable for fitting voluma equations, as
volume equations, as the
the residual
residual error
tends
tends to be approximately proportional to the vollllle.
volume. Jiquations
Equations (2), (3) and (4)
(2) (3) (4) all achieve
this,
this. Model (2)
(2) is
is very simple to
to fit graphically.
graphically.

The quantity V/G is widely known as form

fo:rm height and has the dimension
dimension metres.
metres.

The degree of
of fit obtained when
when stand
stand tetal
total volume
volume is
is regressed
regressed with
with basal
basal area
area and
and
dominant
dominant height with models such as the above is usually very high9
heigtt with high, often with correlation
coefficients 0.99.
coefficients exceeding 0.99.
 -- 92
92 --

5.6.2 Using Tree Volume Equations

Usin e ations to Predict Stand
Stand Volume
Volume

It
It is
is aa fairly commonplace practice to use a tree volume
volume equation to predict
predict stand
volume by
by entering
entering the
the equation
equation with
with mean basal area
area diameter and Lorey's
Lorey's mean height.
height. The,
The
latter is the mean of a systematic sample of tree heights weighted by tree basal
banal area.
area.
Alternatively,
Alternatively, aritbnetic
arithmetic mean height or dominant height are used.
used.

This
This method gives aa biased result
result in most cases because the equation coefficients
have not been influenced by the changing
changing diameter distribution and form of trees with stand
parameters.

In many
many cases the bias,
bias, which is normally towards underestimation of stand volume,
volume,
is
is small enough to be regarded as negligible. The method
method will
will tend
tend towards
towards serious
serious undel'-
under-
estimation of volume however if the equation is predicting volume to a cut-off diameter and
diameter is
the mean diameter is close
close to
to this
this limit.
limit.

5.6.3 EBtirnation of Volume to a Top

Eatimation Tgp Diameter Limit

It is
is often the case in uniform forests that
that volume yields are required to be esti-
mated for
for two
two or
or three
three top
top diameter
diameter limits.
limits. This
This may be
be done as follows:

(1) stand volume

Fit a stand volume equation
equation as
as described
described above(s.
abOlTe (s. 5.6.1.),
5.6.1 . ), either
either overbark
overbark or
or
as required.
underbark, as required.

(2) For each

For each sample
sample plot, calculate
calculate the
the ratio
ratio of
of volume
volume to
to the
the selected
selected top
top diameter
diameter
limit to total
total volume.
volume.

(3))
(3 A
A graph of these ratios against stand mean diameter will produce
produce a diagram of
of
type shown
the type shown below.
below•
Iv
•E =- VVm/1T
m ror

10
1.0 ------------------
"
, "

, .
,"
"
,"

oo ToP
Tail diameter
diameter

(4) This shape can be fitted by

by the
the function:
function:

R
R =
c 11 _- a.exp(b.Dg)
a.exp(b.Dg)

which can be transformed

transformed into:
into:

log(l -
log(1 - R)
R) =
c a* + b.Dg

and fitted by linear regression.

by linear regression. Not that
Not that aa is exp(a*).
 -
- 93 --
93

With several ratios, an attempt can be made to harmonize the coeffi-

sevsral merchantable ratios,
cients so that they are
are themselves
themselves functions
functions of
of the
the top
top diameter
diameter limit.
limit. Alternatively, one
one
could attempt to construct aa multivariable extension
extension ofof the above model incorporating
incorporating mer-
mer-
chantable diameter.
chantalle diameter.

model, it
When fitting the modele it is important that data
data points with
with zero ratios are
exclu ded. When the function
excluded. function is actually used, f aa negative ratio is predicted,
used, iif predicted, the mer-
chantable volume should
should be
be taken
taken as
as zero.
zero,

5.6.4 Volumes of Thinnings

Volumes ThinningE

Various methods of
of calculating
calculating thinning
thinning volumes cancan be adopted.
adopted. The stand volume
equation may be
be entered using the basal area of thinnings.
thinnings. Alternativelye
Alternatively, aa tree volume
table may be entered
entered with
with thinning
thinning mean diameter
diameter and
and estimated
estimated mean
mean height
height (perhaps
(perhaps from
from aa
height/diameter regression).
regression). The mostmost unbiased
unbiased method isis to construct aa stand volume
equation using only thinnings, i.
i. e.e.a a regression of thinned
regression of thinned volume
volume onan thinned
thinned basal
basal area
area
and stand dominant height.
height. This regression can
This regression can be
be tested
tested to
to see
see if
if it
it differs
differs Significantly
significantly
from
from the general stand volume equation
equation ands,
and, if
ifnot,
note the
the latter
latter may be used.
maybe

thinning volumes are

Because thinning are often
often not
not measured
measured. it may
may not be possible
pOSSible to constract
construct
such a model. It is suggested
suggested that in
in such
such cases,
oases, thinned
thinned volume
volume is
is calculated
calculated as
as the
the dif-
dif-
ference
ference between stand volume immediately
immediately before and
and after
after thinning.
thinning. This
This techniques
techniques may
may be
be
applied to both total and merchantable volumes.

5.7
5.7 ADVANCED
ADVANCEDTECHNIQUEE
TECHNIQPIS OF GIlOWTI! AND
OF GROWTH ANDYIELD
YIELD PREDIC'l'ION
PREDICTION

There are two types of

of model Which
which can
can be
be applied
applied to
to uniform
uniform stands
stands which
which have
ll3ve not
not
been referred to directly in the foregoing
foregOing sectiOns
sections,, in spite of the
the fact
fact tll11t
that they
they are
are in
in
uSe in a number
use number of
of forestry
forestry organizations
organizations. These are size class models and tree position
position
models.

5.7.1 Size Class Models

Models

In a size class model

model of
of aa uniform
unifo"," stand,
stand, the
the growing
growingstock
stockatatany
anypoint
pointinin time
time is
is
described by a frequency distribution
distribution of of tree
tree sizes.
sizes. The increment on each size class is is
calculated separately,
separately, usually
usually as
as aa function
function of
of site,
sitee age
age and
and stand
stand density
density and
and the
the relatie!',
relaticn
between the size
size class
class diameter
diameter and
and the
the mean
mean or
or dominant
dominant diameter.
diameter.

mortality must be
Thinnings and mortality be described
described in
in terms
terms ofof frequency
frequency distributions
distributions alsov
also,
with the growing stock distribution
distribution being
being modified
modified for
fo:, each
each thinning
thinning or mortality event.
0:' mortality event.

The advantage of this type of model

model for unifonn
uniform stands
stands is
is that
that it
it gives
gives more
more detailed
detailed
information about
about the size assortment
assortment of yield, f aa stem taper
yield, especially iif taper function
function is
is also
also
used for volume calculation. The disadvantage is that the
the analysis
analysis ofof the
the growth
growth data
data is
is
more complex than for whole stand models
models and requires consideration of additional
additional parameters
parameters
for diameter distributions; whilst
whilst the use of the model necessitates
necessitates access
access to
to an
an electronic
electronic
canputer.
computer.

Models of
of this type
type are
are not
nat necessarily
necessarily more
more accurate
accurate in
in nredicting
predicting whole stand
parameters such
such as
as basal
basal area
area or
or mean
mean diameter;
diameter; but they
they do
do provide more detailed informa-
inform .....
tion about the stand.
stand.
 94 -
-- 94-

5.7.2 Tree Position Models

Tree position models

models are those in which the the actual
actual spatial
spatial relationship
relationship between
between all
all
in aa simulated
the trees in simulated plot
plot are
are represented
represented by
by the
the model.
model. Inter-tree
Intel'-tree competition
competition is
is
dependent on the relative sizes and positions
dependent an positions of neighbouring trees. This information
information is
is
used to provide
provide aa competitive
competitive index
index for
for each
each tree Which
which is used to reduce the actual growth
growth
of the tree,
tree, relative to that
that which itit would have iiff it
it were growing free of any competition.
free of competition.
dependent an
The latter is dependent on the
the age
age and
and site.
site.

Tree position models

models require aa formidable number of calculations
calculations and
and stretch the
the
even quite large computers. As
resources of even quite large computers. As a technique for for modelling the
the growth
growth of
of uni-
uni-
form stands,
form stands, they
they are
are unnecessarily
unnecessarily complex,
complex, since
since they
they do
do not
not provide
provide significantly
significantly more
more
useful information about
about stand
stand growth
growth than aa size
size class
class model?
model, Whilst
whilst requiring
requiring probably
probably
two orders
orders of
of magnitude
magnitude more calculations.
calculations. The principle
principle advantages
advantages of
of tree
tree position
position models
models
are in relation to physiological reeearch and to growth
physiological research growth and yield prediction in mixed stands.
stands.

For readers interested in pursuing the literature an on these more advanced types of
of
model, the bibliography
bibliography published
published by
by the
the Commonwealth
Commonwealth Agricultural
Agricultural Bureau
Bureau entitled
entitled "Compu
"Compu-
terized Methods inin Forest Planning
Planning and
and Forecasting" is
is recannemied.
recommended. Details are in
Appendix D.
Appendix D.
 - 95
95-

6.
6. ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS OF
OF GROW'lH
GROWTH AND YIELD DATA
AM YIELD DATA FOR
FUR MIXED FOREST
FURE3T

Mixed forest,
Mixed forest, in
in the
the context
context of
of this
this manual, implies any forest
forest in wch
which the
the indi-
vidual stands
vidual stands that
that compose
COO1pose the
the basic
basic mensurational
mensuraticnal unit
unit contain
contain aa mixture
mixture of age classes.
of age classes.
Typically, mixed
TYPically mixed forest
forest will
will contain
contain also
also aa variety
variety ofof apecies,
species, Which
wch may be be ecologically
quite similar
similar or
or composed
cOO1posed of
of several
several ecological
ecological groups,
groups, with
with each group tending
each group tending toto be
be
dominant in aa particular
particular stratum of the canopy or an on particular
particular microsi tes or
microsites or in
in different
different
phases following
successional phases following gap formation or
gap formation or harvesting
harvesting operations.
operations.

The distinction between mixed

mixed and
and uniform foreste
forests is
is not
not absolute.
absolute. There are cases
which aa mixed
in which mixed stand
stand consists
coneists essentially
essentially of
of anly
only two
two age
age classes
classes - very small
small understorey
understorey
dOO1inant overstorey
regeneration and a dominant overstorey - and where harvesting is is essentially aa clear
clear felling
felling
operation. In these cases,
cases, the techniques
techniques of
of unifolm
unifoim stand
stand yield
yield prediction
prediction may
may be
be largely
largely
applicable. Similarly, stands
stands of
of uniform age,
age, but
but of mixed
mixed species,
species, may
may need
need to
to be
be analysed
analysed
appropriate for
using methods appropriate for mixed stands,
stands, in order
order to allow for different
different proportims
proportions of
species mixtures within
within aa single
single model.
model.

Mixed forests generally

Mixed forests generally involve
involve much more severe
s""ere mensurational and sampling problems
forests •..The
than uniform forests. The value
value per unit area of
of a mixed forest
forest will normally bebe lower than
forest at
that for a uniform forest at maturity
maturity ande
and, hence, once
once cannot easily justify anan equivalent
sampling intensity.
sampling intensity. At the same time,
time, the
the dispersion
dispersion of
of valuable
valuable epeciee
species and
and the
the variability
variability
of the forest, eampling intensity required to
forest, implies that the aampling obtain the
to obtain the serne
same predictive
predictive
power as for a uniform
unifonn stand
stand model must be much greater.
greater.

The mensurationsl
mensurational problems imposed by poor accees,
access, denee
dense understorey,
understorey, buttreeses
buttresses
impossibility of
and the near impossibility of tree
tree total height measurement in many cases,
cases, means
means that
that
measurement costs are much
much higher
higher for
for a given level of precision. This tends
precision. This tends to
to :f'u.rther
further
reduce the amount of
of sampling
sampling that
that can
can be undertaken within a fixed cost budget.
budget.

Consequently, most attempts at yield prediction in mixed forest

forest have
have been
been based
based upon
upon
relatively small
relatively small quantities
quantities of
of data;
data; the resultant models notnot unnaturally haTe
have much
much lower
precision than would
wauld be
be considered
considered adequate in uniform forest
foreet management.
management. There are eane
some
exceptions to this, as
as for
for example
example the yield prediction work in the Philippines
Philippinee reported
repetr!;ed by
!i,
Revilla 1/, wch results from
which cites results fran Dipterocarp forest
foreet involving over 240 permanent sample
plots.

Because of the variety

of the variety of
of apecies
speciee composition,
composition, floristic
florlstic structure,
etructure, ecological
situations and silvicultural practices that are possible
poseible in mixed forest,
forest, there are an even
even
greater diversity ofof modelling
modelling strategies
strategies available than for
for uniform stands.
stands. Many
Many of
of the
the
are essentially
published methods are essentially untested
untested except
except on
on the
the basis
basis of
of very
very small
Bmall numbers of plots.
of plots.
The techniques selected
selected for
for discussion
discussion in this section areare perhaps the most robust methods
and fall
fall int
into groups,
0 three groups:

fUnctions applicable
Yield functions applicable to
to simpler
Simpler types
types of
of mixed
mixed forest.
forest.
Trans mat rix models.
i ti on matrix
Transition models.
Distance-independent tree models
Distanceindependent tree models based
based on
on difference
difference equations.
equations.

!i
1/ Revilla, A.R. 1979
979 Yield prediction
1 prediction in
in cut-over Dipterocarp stands
cutover Dipterocarp stands in
in the
the Philippines.
Philippines.
Paper to SEminar on ManagEment
Seminar on of Dipterocarp Forests, Metro Manila.
Management of pp.
Manila. 20 pp.
 96 --
-- 96

It
It is
is probable that in the long term,
tenn, a fourth
fourth group
group of
of models, the
the tree
tree position
position
models, the most
models, will be the most effective
effective basio
basis for
for yield
yield prediction
prediction in
in mixed
mixed stands.
stands. However,
However,
such models require
require more
more powerful
powerful computers
computers than
than are
are normally
normally available
available today
today and
and considerable
considerable
investment
investment into research into appropriate
appropriate sampling techniques before they become a viable
viable
oropoei tion.
nroposition.

In this
this chapter, give any
chapter, we do not attempt to give any specific
specific instructions
instructions concerning
cCllcerning the
the
-onstruction
onstruction of growth models and yield forecasting
forecasting for
for mixed forests
forests but rather
rather some
some examples
examples
of possible
of possible ways of dealing
waye of dealing with
with these
these problems.
problems. Elrtensive
Ektensive work is
is however going on in the
field of modelling for
field of for mixed forests
forests and
and it
it is
is hoped
hoped that
that viable
viable methods
methode will
will shortly
shortly be
be
rleveloped.
developed.

'.
", ' SITE CLASSIFICATION
SITE

Because mixed forests

foreste normally
normally comprise
comprise many
many species,
species, the
the concept
concept of
of site
site index
index must
must
oe related either
ne either to
to aa species
species within
within an
an individual
individual tree
tree model
model or
or to
to aa species
species association
association
in
I n a
a yield model. There are many specific techniques for determining
determining eite
site index that have
have
een
een proposed. ~'hey
They are all origins. Site indicators are
all equivalent however in their origins. are either2
either.

Mensurational parameters
Mensurational parameters in
in various
various combinations.
oombinations. (E.g.
(E.g. dominant
dominant height
height and age
in
in the conventional uniform stand site
site index
index curve).
curve).

Environmental
Frivironmental factors,
factors, such
such as
as altitude,
altitude, Aoil
soil type, rainfall, etc.;
ype, rainfall, etc.; or
or indirect
indirect
environmental indicators such
such as indicator
indicator species
species or
or goegraphic
goegraphic groupings.
groupings.

The first class

class of
of site
site indicator
indicator repreaents
represents inin fact
fact the
the observed
observed residual
residual from
from aa
;larticular model, in
'articular in which
which site
site is
is not
not included.
incluhed.. Thun
Thus if one
one devises a model, suchsuch as
ss for
for
',xamp le, a transition
example, transition matrix
matrix model,
model, for
for aa mb>d
mizmi stand, applies it
stand, and applies i t to
to aa number
number of
of plots,
plots,
Dne will find
one find a.
a different
different residual error
error foz each plot.
fOI each plot. That
That error can b. be coded on a scale
such ae 1 t 2, 3,
as 1, 4, 55 etc.,
3, 4, etc., with aa median
median v£:tue
vejue representing a zero error mid one then has
and one
mensurational site
a mensurational site class
class ay-ten
sytsm applicable to to those
those plots.
plots.

'1'0 use such a site class system in ieactice,

To I mctice, the errore
errors (i.e
(i.e. site indices)
indices) must
must be.
be
-tetennined
ietermined at one one point
point in
in time
time and
and than
then usil
us"i asas aa compensating
compensating input
input to
to the
the model
model for
for aa
prediction at a-h aa second
second point
point in
in time.
time. '!'his
This isis precisely what is done with a conventional
conventional
set index curves
set of site index curves for
for aa plantation.
plantation. From aa known height-age
height-age input,
input, site
site class
class is
is
detennined, which
determined, which is
is then
then fed
fed into
into the
the modE.
mod<_ at a second
second point in time in order to obtain aa
accurate prediction
much more accurate prediction ofof aubsequent
subsequent height than would
would be possible from the mean
height-age curve.
height-age curve.

Bet of
Once a set of site
site class
class values hae
hal, been assigned by determining residuals
residuals from
from aa
site-independent model, then the residualsiean
Rite-independent residuals ;oan be correlated with owironmental
environmental factors,
factors,
detennine which
to determine which are
are most
most effective
effective in
in aeplaining
a'.plaining the
the residual
residual variation
variation of
of the
the model.
model.
Indicator species are
are included
included by
bY' uning a.Jzer~one variable
USing ajzero-one variable for
for each
each species:
speoiest zero for
from the
absence from the plot
plot and
and cine
one for present ' on the plot.
present.on plot. other qualita:U,ve factors,
Other qualitative factors, such as
type, can be coded
soil type, ooded in same~.
in the sane way. ~'Appendix
~pendix A A discusses
discusses the use of ze~one
the use zero-one variables
in
in multiple regression.
111- -1-

- 97
- 97 -

of mensurational variables as
The use of as site
site indicators
indicators is
is less
lese easy
e• .sy with a mixed
mixed
stand than with uniform
unifonn stands and can only
only effectively
effectively be done with a a static yield medel.
model.
environmental factors
However, environmental factors can
can be
be used
used as
as site
site indicators
indicators with
with any
any type of of model;
medel; with
mixed forests, environmental
environmental site
site indicators will thus be
indicators will be more
more important
important than with unifonn
uniform
stands. In mixed foresta,
forests, environmental
environmental parameters are a necessary part of an effective
effective
with uniform
model, whereas with uniform stands
stands using
using height
height as
a,s aa basis
basis for
for site
site determination,
detennination, environ-
environ-
mental parameters
mental parameters are
are as
an optional
optional extra.
extra.

It
It should be appreciated fromfran the above discussion that the convenitonal tenns site
terms site
index, site class,
index, site etc0 are to some
class, etc. sane degree misnaners.
miBnaners. What one
one is really dealing with areare
self-caliorating
self-calibrating models, using an
medels, using an error
error estimate atat one point
point in time
time to
to reduce
reduce the
the predic-
predic-
tion error
error for
for aa later
later estimate.
estimate. There is nothing inherently one-dimensional
on&-dimensional about the
effect
effect of the environment on on a" forest
forest growth
growth model.
medel. In addition, the error
sane part of the
addition, some
that self-calibration
that self-calibration can effectively compensate for may be unrelated to the environment
environment
and may be due to historical factors (past(past stand treatment),
treat.ment), stand
stand density,
denSity, if
i f this is
is not
adequately incorporated in the medelo and genetic effects
modeltend effects (provenance
(provenance or
or epecies
species variation).

can be
These points can be summarised
summarised symbolically
symbolically es
as follows:
follows:

Tim
Timee T11 Growth/yield model.
Growth/yield medel.
Solve
Solve:•

Y1
=
• f(X
f(X19 I)
1,I) ~
that Y
for II such that ~Y*
Y -Y*
1 11 1

Fit regression
and E,
between II, and E
J J
I, • G(BoBi)
g(B,E,)

/ J

Time Use II
Use =
q g(B,E )
T2 g(BE2)
2
1
Compute:
impute,
Y •= f(X°
f(X ,I)
I)
Y22 2
2

to determine predicted
yield

5.32:bols
Symbols
B Coefficients in the regression between site
site index
index and
and environmental
environmental
parameters.
E Set of environmental parameters on
Set of on a series
series of
of plots,
plots, used
used to
to fit
fit regression.
regression.
j
E2 Ehvironmental
Environmental parameters on
on plot at
at time
time T2
T2
E2
rO
f() medel used
Any mathematical model used as
as the
the growth
growth model.
medel.
 -98-
-98-

g0
gO Any mathematical
mathematical function
function (linear or nonlinear)
nonlinear) used
used as
as the
the site
site index-
index-
environment regression.
r~ession.

I ERtimated for aa plot.

Estimated site index value for plot.
I Set of
of site index
index values an
on the
the same
same plots
plots as
as E.
E were
were determined.
determined.
Ijj j
X)
x1)
,)
1)
Independent variables used in the growth
growth or
or yield
yield model
model at
at times
times 1, and
and 2.
2.

X )
2
X2)
Y,
Y )) estimated from
Yield estimated from the model at
at times
times' 2.
1 and 2.
1\
)
Y )
2
Y2)
Y~
Y* Actual yield on
on plot on
on which
tdlich X1
X, were
were determined.
determined.
1

6.2
6.2 STATIC YIELD FUNCTIONS FOR MIXED
MIXEM FOREST

6.2.'
6.2.1 General PrinCiples
Principles

Static yield functions

functions have been
been discussed section 5
discussed in section 5 with reference to uniform
uniform
forest. 'l'he
The principal
principal feature of aa static function
function is
is that
that time is
is included inin the
the model
model
as a total elapsed
elapsed time
time from
from some
some reference point. In aa uniform
reference point. uniform forest, the reference point
forest, the reference point
is usually the date of planting or or establishment forest. In aa
establislrnent and time is the age of the forest.
mixed forest
mixed forest model,
model, the
the time
time base
base may
may be
be the
the last
last harvesting
harvesting qperation
operation or
or the
the last
last forest
inventory or it may
or it may be
be some
some other
other point.
pOint.

The model must take

take the
the general
gSReral form:
form:

Y
f(x1,x2?0000Xn,t)

where YY is
is the
the measure
measure of
of yield
yield of
of interest.
interest. This may be timber volume
volume of merchantable
species, basal area,
area, fuelwood
fuelwood tonnage/ha, or non-timber
tonnage/ha or non-timber yield
yield such
such as
as fruit,
fruit, seed
seed or
or bark
bark
producti on.
production.

x, are any
The variables x. any variables which
which fulfil two criteria:
fulfil two criteria:
~

(,) in predicting
They are useful in predicting Y.
Y. That is, they add Significantly
significantly in aa statis-
statis-
tical sense to the goodness of of the funtion f()
of fit of fO to the yield.
yield.

(2) They can be determined without requiring remeasurement

rsmeasurement ofof the forest
forest at time t.
They may be inventory statistics at the base time tt0 , or they may be regional
regional
site indices derived
derived from
from soil,
soil, topographic clim~tic data. They
topographicororclimgtic They may
may be
be
denoting the
qualitative variables denoting the particular
particular type
type of
of harvesting
harvesting treatment
treatment the
the
forest has received.
received.

The
The time elapsed from
from the time base is t. present if
This must be present if the
the function
function is
is
to be as a planning
he useful as planning tool.

of the function will vary

The form of vary tremendously
tremendously depending
depending upon
upon the
the yield
yield being
being pre-
pre-
dicted, and, to some
dicted, the data involved and, some extent,
extent, the
the sophistication
sophistication of
of the
the analytical
analytical tools
tools
available.
 -
- 99
99--

6.2.2
6.2.2 Procedures
Data Analysis Procedures

may be from temporary

The data may temporary or
or permanent plots or
or from experiments.
experiments. The simplest
of
type of data analysis that one is likely
one is likely to undertake will be multiple linear regression,
linear regression,
with graphical
coupled with graphical analysis of
of data
data and of
of residuals. An electronic
electronic computer is
is there-
there-
essential, although
fore essential, although it
it could
could be
be quite
quite aa small one.
one.

The data from

from the plots must
must be summarized prior
prior to determining the yield equation.
summary will
The summary will derive
derive the
the following
following types
types of
of information
information for
for each
eachplot!,
plot, an
on each
each occasion
occasion
of measurement.

(1) Plot
Plot identity; for experiments
experiments this will
will include block number, treatment
number and
number and replicate
replicate number.
number.

(2) Yieldsl may be only

Yields; there may only one
one type of
of yield to consider
consider (e.g.
(e.g. total
total merchan-
merchan-
table volume) but more usually
usually yield will be expressed
expressed by
by species
species groups
groups and
and
in size/quality classes,
classes, so there may be eight or more types of
of yield.

(3) predictor variables.

Possible predictor variables. These include:

- s:rea/hA by
Basal area/ha by species
species groups
groups at time
time to.
t •
o
- Stocking %by
St ocking % by species
sp eci es groups
groups at
at time
time to.
t •
o
- Logging intensity
int ensi ty at
at time
time to.
t •
o
- Silvicultural class.
Silvicultura].

- type code.
Forest type code.
indicators (soil
Environmental indicators (soil type,
type, altitude,
altitude, rainfall,
rainfall, etc.).
etc.).

Once the
the plot
plot summaries
summaries have
have been
been derived,
derived, they
they s:re
are maintained
maintained in
in computer
computer acc es-
acces-
form for
sible form for the
the various subsequent
subsequent analyses.
analyses.

For analysis purposes, various

For various procedures
procedures such
such as
as principal
principal components
components analysis,
analysis,
regression, combinatorial regression can be
stepwise regression, be used to give the
the automatic selection
selection
of the predictor variables which
which''best'
best' predict
predict the
the yields.
yields. However,
However,! selection of
a priori selection of
predictor variables
predictor vs:riables in a relatively simple equation is generally preferable,
preferable, combined with
cs:reful graphical analysis of residuals and preferably some canmonsense
a careful commonsense relationship
relationship
between the
between the form
form of
of the
the function
function and
and the
the reality
reality of
of the
the biological
biological situation
situation predicted.
predicted.

6.2.3 Methods of Selecting

Selecting a Yield Equation

Section 5 has considered the various forms of equation that can be used to model
asymptotic growth processes. In Appendix A,
growth processes. A, figure
figure A.2.1.
A.2.1. shows
shows aa variety
variety of
of basic
basic functions
functions
can represent
which can represent other
other shapes
shapes besides
besides the asymptotic. In developing aa curve or function
the asymptotic. function
forest, it is best first
to model yield development in natural forest, first to graph the data,
data, plotting
against time
yield against time from
from the
the time
time base
base (Whether
(whether aa felling
felling or
or inventory).
inventory). The data should be be
classified by basal area
s:rea of
of the
the stands
stands at
at the
the base
base time;
time; separate graphe
graphs may
may be
be drawn for
or forests of
different sites or of different
different species
species composition.
composition.
 - 100
100 --

On the basis of
of such
such graphs,
graphs, aa suitable
suitable equation
equation can
can be
be selected
selected from
fran the
the various
various
forms
forms described elsewhere
elsewhere in
in this
this manual.
manusl. The data may be fitted
maybe fitted directly,
directly, using
using multiple
multiple
or nested
regression or nested regression;
regression; oror aa hand-drawn
hand-drawn line may be sketched through
through the data
data and
and
subsequently approximated
subsequently approximated by
by an
an equation
equation if
if required.
required.

In many instances where

where anly
only light
light selection
selection felling
felling is
is carried
carried out
out and
and the
the forest
forest
is a complex
is canplex mixture ofof many
many species and ecological
ecological types,
types, there may be no direct
direct relation-
ship discernible
discernible over time between
Oller time between yield,
yield, basal
basalarea
areaand
andsi-te
site class.
class. In such cases,
cases, predic-
tion of
of growth with
with aa simple
simple yield
yield model
model is
is not
not an
an effective
effective strategy.
strategy.

6.2.4 Problems with

with Static
Static Yield
Yield Models
Models in
in Mixed
Mixed Forest
Forest

static yield
Because static yield models are relatively
relatively straightforward
straightforward to
to construct
construct and use,
use, it
seem that they
might seem they offer
offer something
sc:mething of
of aa panacea
panacea for
for the
the problems
problems of
of yield
yield prediction in
mixed forests.
mixed forests. Unfortunately, thisthis is
is far
far from
fran the
the case.
case. The problems are
are essentially
essentially of
of
same kind as those discussed
the same discussed in section 5.2.5 regarding
in section regarding yield models for
for uniform
uniform forests,
forests,
but are rather
rather more
more severe
severe in
in degree.
degree.

of problem:
There are two basic kinds of

(1) A
A particular model of yield has implicit in it
it a historical sequence of
of events
occurring in the data set used to construct
corresponding to those occurring construct the model.
model.
The model cannot be applied reliably to data which has experienced
experienced a different
history.
history.

(2) There is aa problem of

of compatibility.
compatibility. Suppose for example ane one predicts
predicts three
types of volume; Vm
types VM for
for merchantable species; Vp for partially merchantable
merchantable species;
species;
species; and Vu for unused species.
epeciee. The total
total of these three should logically
represent
represent the total volume of the forest.
forest. However, if one compares
i f ane cc:mpares (Vm+Vp+Vu)
(Vm+Vp+Vu)
with total
total volume, data or
volume, either from actual data or from
fran aa fourth
fourth function
function fitted
fitted
directly to total volume,
volume, one
one will
will find
find aa considerable
considerable bias.
bias.

Neither of
of these problems is insurmountable in in principle.
principle. With adequate quantities
of
of data fran
from permanent
permanent plots and long term
term experiments,
experiments, historical
historical factors
factors representing
representing
different sequences
sequences of
of treatment
treatment can
can be
be incorporated
incorporated as
as additional
additional qualitative
qualitative variables.
variables.
Compatibility problems may be overcome
overcane byby fitting constrained regressions
regressions which
which are
are forced
forced
to satisfy particular requirements.
satisfy particular requirements.

yield models
Static yield models above
above all
all suffer
suffer fram
from the
the basic
basic limitation
limitation that
that they
they cannot
cannot
utilize data from
fran varied historical sources (e.g.
(e.g. different types of experiments,
experiments, permanent
permanent
sample plots and short term tree increment plots); nor can can they be adapted
adapted toto predict
predict yield
yield
for
for historical
historical regimes (i.e. sequences
regimes (i.e. sequences of treatment) other thanthan those
those implicit
implicit inin the
the data
data
used to construct them.
than.

6.2.5
6.2.5 Conclusions regarding
regarding Sta-tic
Static Yield
Yield Models
Models in Mixed Forest

Static yield models are

are relatively
relativel v simple
simple to
to construct,
construct, given
given adequate
adequate data.
data.

In many
many types
types of mixed forest,
forest , cLear
c" ear relationships between time,
time, treatment
treatment
intensity and si-te
site are not obBel"'V1'\.~le.
are not cibservie. In such cases,
cases, static models cannot
cannot be
used.
 - 101
101 -

Care must
must be that it
be taken with aa static model to recognize that it is
is tied to predefined
predefined
sequences implicit
historical treatment sequences implicit in
in the data
data used
used to construct
construct it.

lfuen predicting several

When predicting several types
types of
of yield,
yield, either
either constrained
constrained regressions
regressions should be
be
fitted or it must be
it mus't be accepted that
that the different
different predictions
predictions cannot
cannot be
be regarded
regarded
an unbiased
as additive to an IlIibiased total.
total.

6.3
6.3 TRAlllITION MATRIX
TRANSITION MATR17 MODELS
MODFLS

'l'ransition
Transition matrix models provide a method for making short short term predictions
predictions of forest
growing stock
growing st ock an
on the
the basis of
of large
large quantities
quantities of
of poor
poor quality
quality data
data from
from recurrent
recurrent measure-
ments. They can be developed from,from, for example,
example, continuous forest
forest inventory data based on
permanent plots or or temporary
temporary plots
plots near
near the
the same
same locations,
locations, inin which
.mich trees
trees have
have been
been measured
measured
only by diameter and
by diameter and species
species class.
class. The method can
CEll'! be used with data that contains signifi-
cant numbers of erroneous
erroneous measurements. Short
Short tem
term predictions,
predictions, in this
this context,
context, implies
implies
periods up to forty
up "co forty or
or fifty
fifty years OIle cutting
years or one cutting qycle.
cYcle.

method is objective,
The method objective. but
but not
not necessarily
necessarily very
very accurate.
accurate. Its principal advantage
is that the data base can be
be analysed
analysed automatically
automatically and
and may
may be strictly
strictly conventional
conventional inven-
inven-
tory data. Its princpal disadvantage is that it is not usually possible to construct
ade«uately refined transition
adequately transition matrices
matrices unless
unless large
large quantities
quantities of
of data
data are ~lable.
are auailable.

6.3.1 Definition of
Definition ofa aTransition
Transition Matrix Wod.el
1-Tatrix Kodel

matrix model requires

A transition matrix requires that
that. aa system
system be
be represented
represented by
by aa row
row of
of variables
variables
.mtch may be called
which may called aa state
state vector.
vector... One can imagine this as,as, for
for example:
example,

Xm ~
= (:xrn1,
(xm1, Dn2, ••••• :xmn)
xm2,.....xmn)

where each
where each xmi
"",i represents
represents the
the number
number of
of trees
trees in
in the
the ii th
th diameter
diameter class.
class. The first
first sub-
script (m)
(m) denotes the time period. The x'sx' s do not need
need to
to represent
represent size
size classes.
classes. They
could, example, be total biomass in
could, for example, in different
different trophic
trophic levels
levels of
of an
an ecosystem;
ecosyst ... ; or
or
development stages in an animal population. But in in growth
growth models for mixed
mixed forests,
forests, the
state vector elements
elements will normally
nomally bebe size
size classes.
classes.

The transition matrix itself, denoted

matrix itself, denoted by T, consists
by Tv consists of
of an
an nn xx nn table
table of
of elements,
elements,
this,
like this:

T = t11 t12 t13 .• • • • • t1n

t21 t22 • • • t2n
• .• 0 O0 Ou o o •e0000
• • • • • • •
.
O n

• • • • • • •
0 0 0 0 0 O 0 0
• •0 • •0
0 O 0
•0 •
tn1
tn1 tn2 • ........tnn
tn2 • • • • • • tnn
fuch
Each element tij the proportion
tij represents the proportion of element xmi
of element xmi that
that becomes
hecanes xm+11j
"",+l,j over
over
interval mm to
the interval to m+1. of xm+10
m+1. The total value of will be the sum of
xm+1,j will of all
al1 the tij times the
xmi. is,
That is:

xm+1j (1)
 -- 102
102 --

By repeating
repeating equation
equation (1)
(1) for each
each value of
of jj from
fl'Olll 1 to n9
n, one
one calculates an entire
entire
new set of
new of values
values for
for XM+1
Xm+1 from
from Xm0
Xm.

example may clarify

The following example clarify matters.
matters.

below assumes a state vector (X)

The table below (X) of
of diameter classes9
classes, as indicated
indicated::

Diam et er class at
Diameter at end of period
(20
4.20 20-40 4~60
40-60 6~80
60-80 80+ Total
Total

Diameter <
<20
20 0.6 0.39
0.39 0. 01
0.01 0o 0 1.
1.00 I

at start 2~40
20-40 0 0.68 0.30 0.02 0 1.0
of 4~60
40-60 0 0
0 0.75 0.21 0.04 1.0
period 6~80
60-80 00 0
0 0
0 0.
0.9 9 0.1
0.1 1.0
100
80+ 00 0
0 0
C 00 1.0 1.0
100 1

The transition matrix probabilities are given within the table°

table. Note that the zero
zero
of the
values of the lower
lower diagonal
diagonal are
are indicative
indicative of
of the
the fact
fact that
that trees
trees do
do not
not move
mwe into
into smaller
smaller
size classes. The addition of the transition probabilities to 1.01.0 along
along the rows
rows is neces-
neces-
sary if all the states of
of the
the system
system are
are truly
truly defined
defined by
by the
the state
state vector.
vector.

Now assume that the diameter class

class distribution at
at the start
start of period is:
of the period is:

diamet er
diameter <20
<20 2~40
20-40 4~60
40-60 6~80
6o-8o 80+
1037
frequency 1037 219 88 22
22 7 trees/ha
treesilla

Construct aa table as
as shown
shown below,
below9 with
with tha
the class
class total
total in
in the
the right
right hand
hand column
column and
and
other figures obtained
the other obtained by multiplying the total
total by
by the corresponding transition prob~
corresponding transition proba-
bility. Then:

Diameter class
Diameter class at
at end
end of
of period
period
(20
<20 2~40
20-40 4~60
40-60 ~80
60-80 80+ Total
-----
Diameter <20 623
623 404 10 1037
1037
at start 2~40
20-40 149
149 66 4 219
of 4~60
40-60 66 19
19 3
3 88
88
period 6~80
60-80 20 2
2 22
80+ 77 77
Total 623
623 553 142 43 12
12

columns vertically
add the columns vertically to
to get
get the
the new
new frequency
frequency distribution
distribution for
for the
the stand.
stand.

This example ignores ingrowth9

ingrowth, mortality
mortality and
and harvesting.
harvesting. considered in
These are considerad in the
the
following sections°
sections.

6.3.2 Methods of Constructin

methods of Constructing Transition Matrices
Matrices

The methods for constructing transition matrices may be differentiated

differentiated according
according to
to
pennanent plot remeasurements
whether single tree, permanent remeasurements are available or whether ane
one is dealing
only with diameter
diameter class
class measurements.
 -- 103 --

603.2,1Single
6.3. 2.1angiLimuak
tree data

Second measurement

First I
IABCD.
I A B C D • •e • • M
M H Total

measurement A
A
B
C
D

•
•
•
M
H

The framework of
of the transition
transition matrix
matrix is
is shown
shown above.
above. The letters
letters A,B,C,D,
A,B,C,D, •••
denote successive diameter
diameter classes.
classes. M mortality and HH harvested
M denotes mortality harvested stems.
stems. II denotes
ingrowth.

The transition matrix is constructed

constructed as follows:
follows:

(1) Define the initial class and final class,

class, over
over 1 time
Ume period, ofof a a. tree.
tree. Tally
that tree inin the
the appropriate
appropriate row/column
row/column intersection
intersection and
and in
in the
the total column
column an
on
the right. The latter
latter is
is based
based an
on the
the initial
initial class
class value.
value. Ingrowth trees are
defined as those which appear
appear in
in a class
class at the second
second measurement,
msasurement, but were not
present
present inin any
any class
class at
at the
the first
firstmeasurement.
measurement. Mortality trees are
Mmiality trees are those
those which
which
are dead at the second
second measurement;
measurement; and harvested trees those whicht.hlch have been
rQ1\oved.
removed.

(2) Once all the trees in the entire

entire data
data set
set have been tallied, divide the tran-
sition tallies by right hand
by the total in the right hand column to give
give aa propurlion,
proportion,
rounded to two decimal places.

(3) Check that

that the transitions along each row
along each I'<>wadd to 1.0.
add to 1.0. If
If there
there is
is aa small
small
(:1: 0.01
discrepancy (± 0.01 or
or 0.02),
0.02), itit will be aa rounding
rounding error;
error; adjust some
sane figures
figures
at random
randan until they total 1.0. 1. O. If there is
If is a
a large
large discrepancy,
discrepancy, there
there has
has
been an ari tbnetic error
arithmetic error in
in that row.
row.

of the totals columns

If one of colUl)ms is
is zero,
zero, that
that class
class must
must be
be amalgamated
amalgamated with
with an
an adjacent
adjacent
size class, as there are
are no
no data
data defining
defining transitions
transitions relating
relating to
to it.
it.

6.3.2.2 Size class

class data

The diagram below

below illustrates aa transition
transition matrix
matrix as
as it
it must
must be
be constructed
constructed if
if only
only
size class data is available. It must bebe assumed
assumed that
that I

-- All
Al]. ingrowth
ingrowth occurs
occurs into
into the size class°
the lowest size class.
 - 104 -

Outgrowth fran one

Outgrowth from One class
class can
can anly
only occur
occur into
int 0 the
tbe next
next higher
high.,.. class.
class.

The number of
of stems
sterns harvested in each
each class is known from an independent
indppendent source
or dE>iuced
deduced from the treatment prescription.

The shaded blocks

blocks in the table are not usedl
used; they are zeros within the main
are zeros main tran-
tran-
si tion matri:x.
sition matrix.

I HAA
H
"'~~(~
,

I ?
,
~ v Po, ~
~
,

'"
(~ ~p.
r,
~ ~ ~,//4
/ .'"
~ %'"
4
4

H ~ ~ ~ 4 4 , fA0 1
B
3 ~
I/'/" ~

Diameter classes
Diameter classes in the stand
in the stand at
at the
the first
first measurement
measuremmt are
are entered
entered in
in column
column A.
A.
Diameter classes at the second
secend mePsurement
measurement go in raw
row B. Harvested stems are entered in
column H. The diagonals Po and Pr are calculated from the following
following formulae:
fonnulae:

Po ~
m B - A
B A + Po* + H
H (2 )

Pr am A - Po (3 )

In equation
In equation (2),
(2), AA is
is the
the row total and BB the column
row total colur.m total
total for
for a particular Po:
Po; Po*
Po*
of Po
is the value of Po in the next
in the next row
row down.
down. Po* is zero by definition
def"inition for the largest size
class. H the harvested
H is the harvested stems
stems for
for that
that row.
row. Po is calculated recursively9
recursively, stlU"ting
starting at
the bottom right
right corner
corner with
.lith Po*
Po* ma 0,
0, and
and then
then working
working up to the
up to the left.
left.

of Po
After the values of Po and Pr have
and Pr have been
been calculated
calculated in stems/ha, they
in stems/ha, they are
are converted
converted
to proportions by
by dividing
dividing by
by the
the corresponding
correeponding row
row total
total A.
A.

The statistics Po and Pr represent

and Pr represent real
real processes
processes as
as follows:
follows:

(1) In the ingrowth raw9

row, 19 Pr is
I, Pin is the
the proportion
proportion of
of seedlings
seedlingp which
which does
does not
not enter
the lowest
the lowest chame-ter
diameter class.
class. Po is the proportion which does and is accounted as
ingrolorth.
ingrowth.

(2) In the other rows, representing

representing successive
successive size
size classes, Pr is
classes, Pr the proportion
is the
of
of sterns
stems in that rsnain thsre
that class which remain during any
there during one time period.
any one
 -- 105
105-

(3)
(3) Po is
is the proportion of stems
steme growing out
out of ane
one class
class and into the
the next higher
next higher
class
class during any time period.
period.

The
The figure
figure shows
shows the
the value
value of
of A
A corresponding to
to the
the ingrowth
ingrowth row as a?
as a ?. Any
Any arbi-
arbi-
trarily
trarily large figure may be used, as
figure may be used as this
this row rspresents
representa the total number
number of
of seedlings
seedlings
forming the potential
potential ingrowth
ingromh pool.
pool. However, if regeneration
However, if regeneration surveys
surveys are
are conducted,
conducted, then
then
this
this figure may be estimated
estimated absolutely oror modified in proportion to aa percentage stocking.
stocking.

Note
Note also that
that the transition H/H
H/H is
is shown
shown as
as 1.0
1.0 because
because 100%
100% of
of the
the stems
stens harvested
harvested
in period A (the earlier period) will remain harvested at period B~
A (the BL

Mortality can be
Nortality can be added to
to the matrix
matrix in
in aa way
way exactly
exactly similar to harvesting.
harvesting. Like
Like
harvestin~, it
harvesting, it must be
be measured,
moosured, which
which means
means that
that the
the number
number of
of dead trees in each
each size
size class
class
must be assessed
assessed at period
period B. It is is also
also added
added to
to equation
equation (2)
(2) in
in the
the same ~ as
same may H.
as R.

6.3.3
6.3.3 t~dnsition models
Refinements to transition

Two basic refinements must be added to a transition matrix model for mixed forest
forest
beforp,
before it ~orkable tool:
it becomes aa workable tool:

(a) Species must be

be grouped
grouped and
and separa-te
separate matrices ConstIUcted for
matrices constructed for each
each group.
group. The
The
number of groups should not be too large,
largs, otherwise one may have too little
data for many transitions.

(b) Data should be

he grouped into basal area classes for different
different forests,
forests, to allow
matrix to
a different transition matrix to be
be used
used for
for different
different stand
stand densities.

6.3.4
6.3.4 DieadVlUltages of Transition
Disadvantages of 'Prs...,sition Models
Yodels

Transition matrix models have seve4al

several disadvantages.
disadvantages.

fllld tedious
It is difficult and tedious to to represent
represent dynamic
dynamic interactions.
interactions. ForFor example,
example, the
the
interaction between stand density
density and
and growth
growth rate.
rate. It can
can only
only be done byby having
separate transition
a separate t.ransition matrtx
mat:t<!Lx for
for each
each level
level ofof the
the controlling
controlling variable.
variable. This
This
may be tolerable with only one
may ane significant
significant interaction,
interaction, but
but with
with two or more,
tumor more, the
the
number of
number of matrices
matrices required
required is is the
the product
product of
of the
the number
number of
of levels
levels of
of each
each inter-
inter-
action.

The precision of
of a transition model isis limited
limited by
by the
the need
need to
to work
work with
with broadly
broadly
defined classes;
defined classes; otherwise too many
many undefined
undefined transitions occur or the matrices
OCC1lI" or matrices
large for
become too largn for easy
easy computation.
computation.

Transition models are inefficient in

in terms ofof the
the number
number of
of parameters
parameters required
required
define a growth
to define growth process.
process. A A 9
9 x 99 matrix
matrix (81
(81 parameters)
parameters) might
might only
only correspond
correspond
single tree
to a single tree parameter
parameter growth
growth equation.
equation.

- Because of
of their
their inefficiency
inefficiency and
and lack
lack of
of dynamic interaction,
interaction, transition matrix
matrix
ofhr little
models offer little scope forest growth processes.
Bcope for improved understanding of forest processes.
 -
- 106
106 --

6.4 DlSTMICE-INDEPENDENl'
IMTANCE-INDEPMIDENTTREE
TREE)I0DEU3
MODELSMSED ONON
HASID DIFFEREN'CE
DIFFERENCEmD'ATIONS
atuvrian

6.4.1 Definition

A tree model is
A is one
one in
in which
which each
each tree inin a stand
stand is
is individually
individually represented by a
set ofof variables, describing,
describing, for
for example,
example, tree
tree species,
species, tree
tree diameter,
diameter, height
height and
and crown
crown
condition.
condition. In a distance-dependent model, the tree position in the stand is also represented,
typically as
typically as x-y
x-y coordinates.
coordinates. In a distance-independent model, model, tree position is not not repre-
sented. Dist,."ce-independen"~ models are generally
se.'lted. Distance-independent generally much econanica1 in terms of
much more economical of computer
canputer
resources than tree
resources than tree position
position models;
models; but give aa less
less realistic and detailed
detailed representation
representation
of inter--tI'ee canpetitive processes.
inter-tree competitive processes. In this manual, only only the
the distance-independent
distance-independent model
model is
is
e~erience has
considered, as experience has suggested
suggested that
that for gross projections in in yield,
yield, there is no
epecific advantage
specific adVlUltage in
in going
going for
for the
the more
more complex
canplllX and
and computationally
canputationally demanding
d<!l1anding tree position
",odo1.
model.

6.4.2 Al1anetric and

.4,k11.ometric D,ynamic
_and RynanlicVariables
Variables

said, each tree in the stand is represented

As has been said represented by
by aa set
set of
of variables.
variables. InIn
csse, aa tree
the simplest case, tree will
will be
be represented
represented by
by only
only one
one variable,
variable, its
its diameter.
diameter. Usually,
will also
species will also be
be identified
identified and
and perhaps
perhaps height
height or
or crown
crown class.
class. Other
other tree variables,
such as crown
such crown diameter,
diameter, volume
volume or
or biomass,
bianass, may
may be
be derived
derived by
by allometric
allanetric relationships
relationships with
with
diameter and
tree diameter and height.
height.

Dynamic variables are those Which

weh are predicted from
fran the state of the tree atat aa
previous time period. Allanetrie variables are
Allanetric variables are those
those Which
weh represent
represent eta-tic
static relationships
relationships
differen"~ dimensions
between different dimensions of
of the
the tree
tree at
at the
the same
same point
point in
in time.
time.

6.4.3 Representa.tion"
Representation'ofof Canpetition
Con etition

such as diameter, will be predicted from

The individual tree dynamic variables, such fran an
equation incorporating
incorporating tree diameter
diameter at
at the
the last
last time period
period and
and also
also some
some measure of
of stand
stand
density. Stand density may be represented in a number of of ways, as an absolute meaSUI'e
measure such
as number ofof trees over
over a certain size limit
limit or the basal area
area of
of trees
trees in
in the
the stand
stand or
or as
as
aa relative measure such
such as basal area
area divided
divided by
by the
the maximum
ma.:rimum basal area
area possible onon that
site; or or it
it could
could be
be measured
measured in sane
some novel
novel way by considering,
considering, for example;
example, total
total leaf
biOOIass on aa given
biomass on area.
given area.

HO>lsvar dE!1lBity is
However stand density is measured, it
it will retain
retain the
the property
property that
that it
it is
is in
in some
some
sense "the SUl!mIation of
the commation of the individual
individual tree
tree variables in
in the stand. TIma
the stand. Thus basal area is the
sum of the individual
individ.u al tree sectional areas.
sectional areas.

Stand density obviously varies from

fran place to place in a stand.
stand. If the model repre-
sents a large
large plot,
plot, of
of say
say 11 or 10 ha,
ha, then the
the overall
averall stand density willwill not
not necessarily
reflect very accurately
accurately important
important variations
variations such
such as
as the
the occurrence
occurrence of gaps. This difficulty
of geps~ difficn1ty
can be avoided by
by dividing the
the simulated plot
plot into
into quadrats,
quadrats, of of say 10 xx 10
say 10 10 m, and calcu-
m and calcu-
lating the stand density as it affects anyanyone
one quadrat as the average density
density ofof that quadrat
and its eight neighbouring
neighbouri"g quadrats.
quadrats. For edge quadrats,
quadrats, the neighbours can include the
quadrats on the opposite
opposite side
side of
of the pia
the plot in order to avoid
avoid edge
edge effects.
effects.
 107-
- 107

6.4.4
6.4.4 Data Requirements and Approaches to Anal:ysis
Analysis

Data must be available from

fran pennanent
permanent or temporary sample or experimental plots in
order to define all the
the dynamic
dynamic and
and allometric
allanetric relationships
relatiCllships in
in aa model.
model. Any variables
included in the model must
must have
have been
been actually
actually measured
measured on
on sample
sample trees.
trees. IIff competition is
to
to be
be defined
defined in
in tenns
terms of
of quadrat
quadrat stand
stand denSities,
densities, as
as discussed
discussed above
above (seotion
(section6.4.3),
6.4.3), then
then
the
the sample plots or experiments must
must also have been measured so that
that trees could be
trees cwld be placed
in quadrats,
in quadrats, and
and aa quadrat
quadrat by
by quadrat
quadrat competition
competition index
index calculated.
calculated.

With mixed species

species forests,
forests, it may
may well be that rare species will not be represented
represented
by many
by many points.
points. In these cases
cases it
it is
is better to group the rarer species together and provide
provide
them with
with a common
common set
set of
of growth
growth and
and allometric
allometric functions.
functions.

Unlike a transition matrix model,

model, the
the process
process of
of fitting
fitting the
the various
variaus equations
equations in
in the
the
model to the field
field data
data requires
requires considerable
ca,siderable skill.
skill. The various problems are discussed
elsewhere
elsewhere in
in this
this manual,
manual, notably in section 5
in sectiCll 5 and Appendix A,
A, but
but the
the research worker
worker has
has
to consider:
the problem of •• 1eoUng aa Punction
selecting t'\moUon whioh prod"" . . the
which produces the appropriate
appropriate shape
fitting the data using aa suitable and adequate statistical and/or
and/Or graphical
technique
technique,, together with
with an examination
examination of residuals
residuals for
for bias
bias
what will happen if applying the model, an extrapolation will be demanded
i f in applying
from
from aa particular function
function and
and if the rresult
esult it
it gives
gives under
under such
such ciroumstanoes
circumstances
is
is reasonable, if
if not necessarily
neoessarily accurate.
acourate.
6.4.5
6. 4.5 Basic Model Structure

overall model
The averall model structure
structure is
is very
very simile.:
similar to
to that
that for dynamic stand
for dynamic stand models dis-
models, dis-
cussed
cussed in section 5.3.4,
in section 5. 3.4, and is illustrated
illustrated inin the
the diagram
dia,;mm below.
below. There
There is
is first or' all an
first of all an
initialization phase, where the state
state of
of the
the stand
stand at the start of the simulation is given.
at the start of the simulation is given
This could
This could be
be derived
derived from
from actual
actual inventory data or it could be generated randomly or from
of functions.
a set of functions.

Initialize tree variation

r ________ Compute
Compute competition
t
competition indices
indices for each
for each

L
quadrat! .

Compute growth for a given period of time,

e.g.
e.g. 1 year, tree by
r-----------------quadrat by tree
tree
Increment time
period by 11
period by 1
Remove harvested trees, compute
compute yield

t¡-
dead trees
Remove dead

Oenerat
1
Generatee new
.
new ingrowth
ingrowth trees
trees

~ ______________ Print
1
summary of
Print summary of plot
plot statistics
statistics
for this period
 -- 108
108 -
-

Then
Then the model
mcdel enters
enters aa cyclic or iterative
iterative phase.
phases where
Where each cycle
cyole represents
represents ane one
of the
unit of the basic
basic growth
growth periods typically 11 or 55 years. In
period, typically each iteration, a series
In each iterations a series of of
calculations are
are repeated
repeated following
following the
the main
main stages
stages indicated.
indicated. Generallys
Generally, the
the order
order in
in
which these stages
stages are
are carried
carried out not important;
out is not important; so that one could, for example,
so that one coulds for examples removeranove
dead or harvested trees before, after,
before' rather than afters calculating growth on
an the residual stand.
the residual stand.

6.4.6 Ingrowth.
Ingrowth., Mortality
Mortalit and Harvesting
Harvestiqg

Fran
From the point of view of
of tree model conetructions
Calstruction, ingrowths
ingrowth, mortality and harvesting
mortality and harvesting
common the
have in common the following:
following:

- they
they invo/ve
involve the
the creation
creation or
or romar.al
ranoval of tre .... from
trees fran the
the list
list of
of treM in the
traen in the model
model
-- they are inherently
inharErltly random
rand.. processes
prooees88 and cannot
oannot easily
eesily be treated as simple
functional relationships .

adequate descriptive
descriptive data
data is
is often
often lacking
lacking an
on these
these parameters,
parameters.

Ingrowth and
and mortality
mortality are often both
both partially
partially density depenaent;
dependent; so that the
number of
of ingrowth
ingrowth trees oror the
the number
number of
of trees
trees aying
dying may
may both
both be
be functions
functions of
of stand
stand density.
density.
number has
Once this number has been determined'
detennined, the
the actual
actual selection
selection of
of individuals
individuals may
may involve
involve aa
variety of ad hoc rules.
variety of rules. With ingrowth,
ingrowths one typical ly creates
typically creates trees
trees of randan
random eizes
sizes and
species with limits
limits determined
determined perhaps
perhaps by
by aa probability
probabilitydistribution
distributionbased
basedonondata, or per-
&A% ar pel'-
haps on
on an arbitrary
arbitrary maximum
maximum size
size that
that appears
appears reasonable.
reasonable. With mortality,
mortality, the likelihood
of
of any individual tree dying may be a function of of its size wad
and species.
species.

or probabilistic
Stochastic or probabilistic processes
processes ofof this kind
kind can
can be modelled
modelled very
vary easily
easily in
in aa
canputer by using
computer simulation by using aa uniform
uniform random
randan number
number generator
generator that
that produces
produces randomly
randanly distri-
distri-
buted numbers
buted numbers between
between zero
zero and
and one.
one. Such functions are often standard library functions in
FURTRAN programming and are
FORTRAN programming are part
part of
of the
the standard
standa:rd language
language in
in BASIC.
BASIC.

Suppoee function indicates

Suppose for example that a function indicates that
that aa particular
particular tree
tree in
in the
the model
model
has aa 0.7 probability ofof dying
dying in
in the
the current
current year.
year. AA random
l'IIlldan number
number between
between 00 and
and 11 is
generated; if it it is.!!!!! 0.7s then the tree is
is less than 0.7, is presumed
presumed to to have
have died
died and
and aa mortality
mortality
routine is entered which records the the details
details ofof the
the tree
tree forfor the
the plot
plot summary
summary and
and removes
removes
it fran the table of
it from of trees alive inin the
the model.
model. If the random
randan number
number is
is greater
greater than
than 0.79
0.7.
tree survives
then the tree survives and
and grows
grows until
until the
the next
next period.
period.

Harvesting processes are similar to mortality in that

Harvesting that they involve the
the rmloval
removal of
of
trees, but usually
usually in
in accordance
accordance with
with definite
definite rules
rules relating
relating to
to the
the species
species and
and size.
size.

6, 4 7 Regrág_____arcli
Conclusions Regarding Tree Models

Individual
Individual tree
tree models
models are highly flerlble,
flexibles but
but require
reauire considerable
considerable skill
skill in both
in both
canputer programming and
computer programming and in
in data
data analysis
analysis an
on the
the part
part of
of the
the research
research worker.
work?r. They
They also
also
require the use ofof aa large
large computer.
computer. There is no single
single stereotyped
stereotyped method
method of
of constructing
constructing
such models
models.. The interested reader
reader should
should study
study references
references such
such as
as those
those given
given in
in the
the CAB
CAll
(1977) Bibliography
Bibliography listed
listed in Appendix
Appendix B.

models are
Individual tree models are not
not aa panacea.
panacea. Like all other
other forecasting
forecasting methods they
they
require an extensive
erlensive data base of remeasurements an on carefully maintained and
and assessed
pennanent sample and experimental
permanent sample experimental plots. Also,
Also, like other
other methods discussed
discussed earlier,
earlier, their
their
sophistication is no
sophistication no guarantee
guarantee of
of their
their accuracy.
accuracy.
 -- 109
109 --

7. VALIDATION OF GPOWTH
VALIDATION GJ10WTH AND YIELD MODELS

7.1
7.1 THE
TETE ROLE
ROLE OF
OF VALIDATION
VALIDATION

Validation is,
Validation is, literally,
literally, the
the process
process of
of determining
detennining whether
whether or
or not a model truly
truly
reality. However, the
represents reality. the following
following points
points must
must be
be borne
borne in
in mind:
mind:

Model predictions
predictions approach
approach reality
reality as
as aa set
set of
of successive
successive approximations
approxir.1ations as
as more
more
and more effort
effort is
is put
put into
into data
data collection
collection and
and model
model construction.
construction.

At some
sane point, the effort involved in obtaining
obtaining more data or producing a more
statistically
statistically sound model becanes
becomes more expensive
""Pensive than the marginal improvement
improvEment
in model predictions warrant.
warrant.

Forest models do not have a unifonn of error

uniform degree of error over
over their whole of
Whole range of
predictive behaviour, but
predictive but will
will be
be more
more ar
or less
less accurate
accurate over
over different
different ranges
ranges of
of
variabl~~.
predictor variables.
predictor

The process of validation may

may be as time consuming exp""sive Pa
consuming and expensive as that of
of model
construction. Special
Special experiments may need to be constructed
conetructed to test
test the model;
model; data pr<>-
pro-
cessing systems may need to be set up to allow
allow models to
to be
be validated by comparison
canparison with
with
large numbers of
of plots;
plots; considerable statistical analysis
analysis may
may be
be required
required to
to estima-te
estimate the
the
covariances of
of residual
resimlal errors.
errors.

This input of effort

effort into the validation
validation process is
is in
in no
no sense wasted. Science
Bense wasted. Science
fran philosophy
differs from philosophy and.
and religion
religion in
in being
being subject always to the criterion
crl.terion of
of empirical
Empirical
validation of theories
validation of theories and
and models.
models. A A model
model which is no~
which is validated is
no validated is simply
simply speculation and
guesswork.

Furthennore, the
Furthermore, the nature
nature of
of model
model constructicn
construction implies
implies that
that it
it must
mUet interact
interact with
with
validation as aa cyclic
cyclic process.
procesa.

Data collection
A

Model Validation
construction

Validation will show weaknesses

weaknes7es in model
model behavi""r
behaviour >obich
which will
will lead
lead to
ta improvAd
improved model
model
structure or to the necessity
necessity of
of collecting
collecting more
more field
field data. Experiments on
data. EXperiments oil models, even
even
those 'which
H hich are quite invalid
invalid may
may lead
lead to
to alternative
alternative concepts
concepts of
of experimental
experimental design
deflign and
and
data capture.
capture.

7.2 VALIDATION DATA

In order to validate aa model, its

its behavioUr
behavioUr must
must be
be compared
compared with
with observations
obsel"'rations frcm
from
whose history
real situations whose history and
and treatment
treatment are
are precisely
precisely known.
known. This
This data.
data can
can be
be called
called
validation data and may be obtained from ""Pariments, pennanent
from experiments, permanent sample
sample plots
plots or
or temporary
temporary
 --110
110 -

sample plots.
sample plots. Two distinct situations
situations uslinlly
usually exist
exist with
with reepect
respect to validation data:
validation data:

- The data used to

tO validate the
the model
model is
is the same
same as
as that
that used
used to
to construct
construct the
the
functians forming
various functions forming part
part of
of the
the model.
model. We can
can call
call this ~ validation.
this self validation.

The
The data used
used to validate
validate the model
model has
has not
not been
been used
used to
to estimate any
any of
of the
the
This situation may be called InimmisL
function parameters in the model. This independent
vaHdati on.
validation.

There is nothing
nothing extraordinary
extraordinary about
about the
the concept
concept of
of self
self validation.
validation. It is the
procedure for
normal procedure for regression
regression analysis,
analysis, for
for example,
example, where
where all
all statistical
statistical estimators
estimators are
are
on the errors
based on errors bet"een
between model
model predictions and the observed
predictionsandthe observed values
values used
used to
to fit
fit the
the model.
model .

Self validation can

can however,
however, be
be dangerously
dangerously misleading.
misleading. Regression
Regression analysis
analysis provides
provides
a good
good example:
example: iif
f the assumptions of the statistical model used (uniform
(uniform error variance,
variance,
normally distributed uncorrelated
normally distributed uncorrelated errors,
errors, predictor
predictor variables
variables known without error)
known without error) are
are incor-
incoI'-
rect then
rect then the
the statistical
statistical estimators
estimators and
and parameter
parameter values
values obtained
obtainedwill
will al-so
also be incorrect.

Self validation is particularly

particularly dangerous
dangerous with
with small
small numbers
munbers of
of observations
observations and
and
with very complex models. With simple models (perhaps only one or two f'unctionB)
models (perhaps functions) and with
large amounts of
of comparison
comparison data
data it
it can
can be quite
quite acceptable.
acceptable.

Independent validation is a much

much more satisfactory
satisfactory procedure
procedure from
fran every
every point ofof
view. It gives an absolute reflection of
It of how
how effective
effective a model is is as aa predictive
predictive tool,
tool.
The main difficulty with independent validation
validation isis that
that aa considerable
considerable body
body ofof data
data may
may
need to be ignored When
when constructing
constructing the
the model. Probably the best procedure, and one one widely
widely
adopted
adatad bybythe
the systems
systems modelling
modellingcommunity,
canmunity, is
is that
that of
of halving
halving the
the data
data set
set by
by aa random
random oror
systematic process and using
using half
half the
the data
data for
for model
model construction
construction and
and half
half for
for validation.
validation.

there is
Unfortunately, there is aa certain
certain grey
grey area
area between
between self
self validation
validation and
and indspendent
independent
validation. It is
It is possible to construct a model using one
using one type of infonnation from aa set
of information from set of
of
plot
plot or experimental data and validate itit using another,
another, independent
independent statistic
statistic from
from the
the same
same
plots. Such partially independent validation may may be
be regarded
regarded as
as less
lees satisfactory
satisfactory than
than
fully independent
independent validation,
validation, but
but more indicative of aa modd's
model's true
true validity
validity than
than self
self
validation.

7.33
7. RMIDUAL
RESIDUAL ERROR
EmlORS

Validation of
of models is
is usually
usually based
based upon
upon an
Sll analysis
analysis of
of residual
residual errors.
errors. These
These
are defined as:

Residual error •
..-- Observed value - predicted value

This is exactly analogous to

to the
the residual
residual error
error used
used in
in regression
regression analysis. It is
analysiS. It is
suggested that the reader refer to the notes in Appendix A.2.6; identical
Appendix A.2.6; identical techniques
techniques can be
can be
applied to error
error analysis
Sllalysis from models.
models.

f the residual error

IIf error is
is to
to give
give aa true
true indication
indication of
of aa model's
model's performance,
performance, it
it must
must
be assumed
assumed that the
the model can
can be
be set
set up
up in
in such
such aa way
way that
that the
the independent
independent variables giving
rise to the observed value are identical to those
those for the predicted value. If this
value. If this is
is not
not
the case,
case, then the
the error
error of
of the
the model
model will
will tend
tend to
to be
be exaggerated.
exaggerated.
 --111
111 -

For example, aa dynamic stand model

For example, model requires
requires inf'ormation
information about
about the
the planting
planting density
and timing and intensity
timing and intensity of
of thinnings
thinnings if
if it
it is
is to
to make
make an
an accurate
accurate prediction.
prediction. Such a
Such a
""quires long
model requires long term
tenn permanent
pennanent sample
sample plots oror thinning
thinning experiment
experiment data for accurate
validation.

A growth and yield model will

mill generally predict
predict several
several statistics,
statistics, for example meanmean
diameter, dominant
diameter, dcminant height, total volume
vO'lume and merchantable volume.
volume. Residual
Residual errors
errors generally
generally
increase (relative
(relative to the statistic predicted) fran from height to diameter,
diameter, to total volume to
merchantab le volume. Consequently,
merchantable Consequently, it it is
is usually
usually sufficient
sufficient to
to carry
carry out
out validation
validation studies
studies
on
on total
total vol ume or
volume or merchantable
merchantable volume;
volume; unless
unless there
there is
is aa special
special need
need to
to lcrtow
know the
the precision
precision
of
of diameter and height estimates , these need not
height estimates, not be the subject of separate validation
studies.

Residual errors can be summarized in several ways:

Residual ways:

- Graphically,
Graphically, as plots of of residual
residual errors
errors against
against predicted values or
or predictor
predictor
vvariables.
a riab l es . The comments
camnents in
in Appendix A.2.6 apply
Appendix A.2.6 apply in
in this
this case.
case.
2
- As aa ccoefficient
As oefficient of detennination,
determination, analogous to R
R2 in regression studies.
studies . This
This
iis
s calculated as:
as :
sura_2LETIams
Sum of squares of
of residual errors.
resilual errors
1 - , .

Sum of
of squares
squares of
of dbserved
observed values

- r esidual standard
As a residual deviation, calculated
standard deviation, as:
calculated as:

Sum of ssquares res i dual errors

ares of residual errors
No. of v
No, a lidation samples -
validation - No,
No. of
of predictor
pr edictor variables

- As a pel'Centage r esidual standard

percentage residual standard deviation
deviation (equivalent
(equivalent to
to aa coefficient
coeffi cient of
of
variati~) calculated
variation) as :
calculated as:

Residual standard deviation

l~ ean
Mean predicted value

In quoting or using these statistics,

statistics , the
the reader
reader should
should appreciate
appreciate that
that they
they are
are
approximations
approximations which cannot
cannot necessarily be
be related
related toto specific
specific confidence
confidence intervals
intervals or
or llevels
evels
of significance.

7.4
7.4 GRAPHICAL COMPARISONS
GRAPHICAL ca.!PARISON3

of residual
Analysis of residual errors
errors is
is aa somewhat
somewhat abstract
abstract technique.
technique. AnAn alternative
alternat ive approach
app.-oach
to model validation
validation is
is that
that in
in which
>ihich aa gisaph
graph is
is plotted
plotted of
of the
the statistic
statistic of
of interest
interest against
against
scme predictor
some variable for
predictor variable for both
both real
real stands
stands and
and the
the yield
yield model.
model. For example,
example, ane
one could
could
the development of
plot the of volume
volume against
against time
time for
for actual
actual stands
stands and
and for a model
model..

This type of approach gives a more concrete appreciation of the strengtha

strengths and weak-
nesses of a model,
model, than residual analysis.
analysis. Hbwever, cannot effectively be
Hbwever, it cannot be used to summarize
usedto
behaviour of
the behaviour of aa model involving
involving many
many predictor
predictor variables: nor can it easily
easily be used to
represent results with large amounts of
of validation data.
data.
 - 112
112 -

It
It is suggested that
that both
both types
types of
of validation
validation are
are usually
usually necessary.
necessary. Residual
analysis can be used with large sets of data and to summarize results
results into aa small
small number
number
of statistics, over the
statistics9 over the whole
whole range
range of
of predictor
predictor variable
variable values.
values. Graphical comparisons
comparisons are
effective for presenting the key aspects of model
model behaviour
behaviour for
for publication
publication or canrnunication.
communication.

7.5
7.5 DEFINING THE LIMITS OF MODEL UTILITY

The residual errors

errors from
from aa model
model will generally tend
tend to
to increase
increase as
as one
ane moves
moves toWBl'ds
towards
extreme values of
more extreme of predictor
predictor variables. This
This is
is likely to be especially
especially true
true if
if one's
one's
validation data
validation data covers
covers aa broader
broader range
range of
of sites,
Sites, ages
ages and
and growing
growing conditions
conditions than
than the data
used to
t o construct
construct the
the model.
model.

However, there will be limits

limits to the validation data,
data, as there will have been to the
in
data used in model construction. It
construction. It is important, as
is important, as part
part of
of the
the validation
validation process,
process, that
that
one
one examines
examines how the model
model behaves
behaves outside these
these limits
limits and
and estimates,
estimates, for
for each
each type
type of
of pr~
pre-
dictor variables
variables,, a range of
of values outside which the model
model predictions
predictions become obviously
Obviously
inaccurate and
and unusable.
unusableo

This is important
important because many applications
applications of growth and yield models
models may
may be
be in
in
absurd values
situations where absurd values are
are not
not immediately
immediately apparent.
apparent. For
For example,
example , as
as part
part of
of an
an
economic
economic forest
forest sector model
model or as
as aa component
component in aa programme
programme for
for calculating
calculating cutting plana .
plans.

The limiting
limiting range
range of
of values within which
which aa model may be reasonably precise (to
(to
quoted specifications)
quoted specifications) should
should therefore
therefore be explicitly
explicitly defined during the
defined during the validation
validation process.
process .
 - 113
- 113 -

8. THE APPLICATION OF THE

THE MODEL
MODEL TO
TO THE
THE Ill!XPIllEO
REQUIRYD EN> USE
Em USE

88.1
.1 II Nl'RODUCTION
NTRODUCTION

!Bsentially, growth and

Essentially, the growth and yield
yield model
model may
may be
be applied
applied in
in one
one of
of three
three ways:
wy":

( i) As
As aa simple table or
or graph
graph or
or set of
of tables
tables or
or graphs.
gl'Sphs. CM be used bby
These can y
forest
forest planners directly or can be fed in tabular form
be fed form to
to aa computer
computer for
for updating
updating
aa set of inventory
inventory data.
data.

(ii) As
As aa programme for aa computer or calculator which can can produce
produce aa table
table or
or graph
graph
of growth and yield for aa particular set of treatments.
set of treatments. This
This is
is appropriat e
appropriate
when
when the model has sufficient inherent
sufficient inherent flexibility so that it is not possible
so that it is not possible
define all
to define all possible
possible predictions in one
predictions in one set
set of
of tables.
tables.

(iii) As
As aa computer programme
programme which
which forms
forms aa sub.,model
sub-<nodel within
within aa larger computer pr~
larger computer pro-
gramme for forest
forest planning and MUch
which will usually incorporate"
incorporate a data
data bbase
as e of
of
inventory information
i nformation and various technical con
various economic or technical Btraint~ on
constraints on harves-
ting and treatment operations.
operations.

Alternatives i dealt with in 5.3.4.

i and ii have been sufficiently dealt 5. 3.4. Remains
Remains tto
o comment
on alternative iii where the model is used in connection with inventory
i nventory data in forest
forest
planning.

A necessary prerequisite in this case is that the variables included in the model
A model
as parameters (predictor
(predictor variables) also are included in the inventory data.
data.

8. 2
8.2 EVEII-AGED
ETTN-AGED STANDS

In the case
cas e when
when the
the forest
forest consists
consists of even-aged
even-aged stands
stands the
the follOwing
following three
three functions
b e included
might be included in
in the
the model:
model L

Ho = ff (Sp,s, A)
(Sp, S, A)

Ig = (Sp, s,
ff (Sp, S, A,
A, G) or Ig ~
= f (Sp,
f (Sp, Ho,
Ho, N)
N)

Hf ~
= ff (Sp,
(Sp, Ho, N)
Ho, N) or Hf = (Sp, Ho,
f (Sp,
f Ho, ~
/i G)
G)

where Sp denotes species, SS site

Where site quality
quality class,
class, Ho
Ho dominant
dominant height,
height, AA age,
age, NN number
number of
of trees
per hectare,
per hectare, GG basal
basal area
area per
per hectare,
hectare, IgIg basal
basal area
area increment
increment per h~ctars and
per hectare and year
year and Hf
and Hf
form height,
form height, defined
defined by
by the
the function
function VV = G.Hf
G.Hf where V is volume per
Where V per hectare.
hectare. In this
this case,
the variables Sp, A, Ho, lJ N snd G have to be known for
and C; for the
the inventory
inventory data
data while
while site
site class,
class,
S
S,, may be
b e calculated
calculated by
by means
mesns ofof the
the first
first function.
function.

We may
may assume that
that thp.
the model is calculated by by mesns
means of of observations
observations on growth and
yield plots.
yield plots. We may further assume that the inventory ' data,
inventory-data, to MUch 'the
Which will be
t he model will
is derived from observations
applied, is observations on
on sample
sample plots.
plots. If the plot sbe
plot size is the Bame in both
same both
cases the model may directly be applicable to the inventory
inventory data.
data. If,If, however, there is a
in size in
difference in in that
tfuit the
the inventory
inventory plots
p l ots for
for example
example areare smaller
smaller than
then the
the growth
growth and
and
may give
yield plots, the model may give biased
biased results.
results. There are two reasons reasons for
for this. One is
this. One is
class will be
that the site class be somewhat
somewhat underestimated
und<U'eetimated on on small
st1lall plots
plots (0.01-0.02
(0.01-0.02 hectares)
hectares)
 114 --
-- 114

compared to larger
larger plots
plots (0.05-0.1
(0.05-0.1 hectares).
hectares). This
Tbis bias is
is, however,
however, usually only aa few
usually only few
The other
percent. The other reason
reason for
for bias
bias is
is that
that the
the effect
effect of
of competition
competition from
from trees
trees outside
outside the
the
plot
plot will increase with decreasing plotplot size.
size. This
This in turn means
means that
that aa growth function
function
variables like NN or 0 is correct
containing competition or density variables corI'ect only
only for
for plots of
of the
the
it was
size for which it was calculated. The size of of this
this bias
bias depends
depends on
on the
the difference
difference inin size
size
between the growth
growth plots and the inventory
inventory plots, the type of growth function
function in the model
motel
and
and finally on the variation within the inventoried stands. Nothing can
Nothing can therefore
therefore be said
be said
in general about the
the size
size of
of this
this error.
error.

Provided that the growth plots and the inventory plots are of more
more or less
less equal
size,
size, the
the application of the model
model to the
the inventory data
data should
should be
be done
done byby forecasting
forecasting the
the
development for
for every
every single
single inrentory
inventory plot.
plot. At the end of the
the forecasting period,
peried, the
plots may be sorted
Borted into strata according to species
species, Bite
site class
class and
and agp.
age a.'ld
and the
the oums
sums and
and
means for
for each
each stratum
stratum calculated.
calculated.

If,
If, however,
however, there isis aa great
great difference in plot
plot size in that
that the
the growth plot.s
plots are
much bigger than the
the inventory
inventory plots it it might be
l,e advisable
advisable firstly
firstly to sort the inventory
inventor"J
data according
according to
to species,
species, si-te
site class
class and
and age
age and
and then
then to
to apply the
the model
motel to t.hese Rtrata
these strata
of to
instead of to each
each separate
separate inventory
inventol"J plot.
plot.

8.3 STA?IDS
MIXED STANDS

In
In the
the case of aa foreet
forest consisting of
of mixed
mixed (uneven aged)
aged) st""ds
stands the
the following
functions
functions might be included in the forecasting model:

Iv
Ir = f (S, F9
f (S, F, G(1),
0(1), 0(2),
0(2), ••• O{n),
G(n), N(1), N(2), •••
N(2) ll{nl, L(1), 1,(2)
N(n) L(2), •••
L(n) )
1,(n))

V =
y (S , F,
ff (Sy F9 0(1), 0(2), 00.
G(1), G(2)9 ••• 0(n)9
O{n), N(1)9
N(1), 11(2), •••
N(2), N(n»
N(n))

where Tv
Iv is growth
growth in
in merchantable
merchantable volume
volume per
per hectare
hectare and year, S is site class defined by
and year,
environmental
environmental indicators (soil
(soil type, rainfall, etc.),
type, altitude, rainfall, etc.), F is forest type, 0(1), 0(2),
••• G(n)
O(n) is basal area
area after
after logging
logging by
by species
species group
group per
per hectare,
hectare, N(1),
N(1), N(2)
N(2) ...
••• N(n)
II(n) is
is
the number
number of
of trees
trees after
after logging
logging per
per species
species group
group and
and hectarev
hectare, L(1),
L(1), L(2)
L(2) ...
••• L(n)
L(n) is
is
logging intensity
logging intenSity per
per species
species group
group and
and finally
finally VV is
is merchantable
merchantable volume
volume after
after logging
logging per
per
hectare.

enable forecasting
To enable forecaeting the
the same
sarne variables
variables (predictor
(predictor variables)
variables) have
have to
to be
be recorded
recorded
inventory as
in the inventory as those
thoBe included in the
included in the model.
model. The discussion an on plot size
size in
in relation
relation
to forecasting
forecasting foreven-aged
for even-a,ged stands
stands applies
applies inin principle
principle also
also to
to mixed
mixed. stands.
stands. It must be
admitted, however, that very little so far has bean been done in the field
field of growth models
models for
for
tropical mixed
mixed foreste
forests and
and that
that this
this field
field still
still is
is in
in aa stage
stage of research. It is thus not
of research.
possible to
possible to give
give any
any precise
precise instructions
instructions an on how
how to
to make forecasts
forecasts concerning the development
development
of tropical, mixed
mixed forests
forests after
after logging.
logging. For tenperate,
temperate, mi:7::ed forests, models
mixed forests, mod.els have been
by which
developed by which reliable
reliable forecasts
forecasts may
may be
be done
done (see e.g. Monserud 1980). It
(see e.g. It might be
worthwh:tle trying
worthwhile trying these
these models also
also for
for tropical
tropical mixed
mixed forests,
forests , but this has so far not been
done.

Monserud, A,
A, Ek, A, 19801
Ek, A, 1980, Canparison growth models for
Comparison of two stand growth for northern
northern hardwoods
hardwoode --
H, (editor)
Wright H9 (editor) 1980. Planning, performance and evaluation of growth and yield
studies. Meeting of
studies. of IUFRO
IUFRO 54.01.
54.01. Commonwealth Forestry
Forestry Institute, Oxford, Great
Oreat
Britain,
Britain, pp.8.
pp.8.
 -- 115
115 --

Appendix A

STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL

STATISTICAL AND MAmEMATICAL TECHNIQUES
TECHNIQum POR
FOR YIELD
YIELD STUDIES
STUDm3

Etat
Page
lo
1. EQUATIONS AND GRAPHS
1.11
1. TheStraight
The Straight Line
Line 117
117
1.2
1.2 Transformations for Cln'Ve
Curve Fitting 118
118
1.3 Example of
of Approximation of a Curve Using Transformation to 119
119
a Straight Line
Line
1g4
1. PolynomiaJ,s for
Polynomials for Curve Approximation 121
121
1.5 Graphs Involving
Involving Three Variables 125
125
1.6
1.6 Fitting an
Example: Fitting an equation
equation to
to aa system
system of
of curves
ourves by
by 126
126
harmonization.

2.
2. CURVE FITTING
FITTING BY
BY LINEAR
LINEAR LEAST SQUARES ANALYSIS
LAST SQUARES 129
129
2.1
2.1 Simple Linear Regression 129
2.2
2.2 Regress
Regression Two Predictor
i on with Two Prediotor Variables 132
132
2.3 Data Transformations and Curve Fitting
Data Fitting 133
2.4 Multiple Regression Analysis 140
140
2.5 Calculations for Estimating the Parameters
fBrameters of a Multiple 141
141
Regression Model
2.
2.66 Residual Analysis 150
150
2. 7
2.7 Weighted Regression 152
152
2. 8
2.8 Comparison of
Comparison of Regression
Regrossion Lines
Lines 153
153
2.9 Regression Using
Nested Regression Using Conditional
Conditional Variables
Variables 160
160

3.
3. SOLUl'ION
SOLUTION OF EQUATIO~
EQUATIONS 163
163
3.1 Solution of the Quadratic
Quadratio Equation
Equation 163
3.
3.22 Graphical
Graláhioal Solution
Solution of Equations
Equations 163
163
3.3
3.3 Numerical Solution of Equations 165

4. FITTING
FITTING NON-LINEAR MODELS
MODIug 166
166
 - 117
- 117 --

1•
1. EQUATIONS AND
EQUATIONS GRAPHS
AD GRAPHS

This section
seotion concerns
conoerns methods
methods of
of ez.plessing
expressing graphical
graphical relationships
relationships as
as equations.
equations.

1.1
1.1 The Straight
StraiOat Line

simplest type
The simplest type of
of grail'
gTaph is the
the straight
straight line:
line:

b ·= Il Y / .6 x

o +----------------"x

This can be represented

represented as
as an
an equation
equation by:
by:

y=e a
y a + b.x
+ b.x

is the value of
a is of y at the point Where
where the
the line
line crosses
crosses the
the yy axis
axis (i.e.
(i.e. at x.0),
,.,0). b is the
line, and can be conveniently
slope of the line, worked out from a
conveniently worknd a graph as follows:
follows:

(i)
(i) Take any
Takn interval Lix
any convenient interval A x (say
(say for
for example,
example, 10
10 imite
units of
of x), and draw
x), and draw aa
line AB
AB of that
that length parallel to
to the xx axis (see
(see diagram above).

(ii) Measure the

the length Ll.y of
length Ay of the
the line
line parallel to the
parallel to the yy axis from
from BB to
to the
the graph
graph
line. If BC
BC is
is measured
measured upwards,
upwards, Ll.y is positive.
Ay is positive. If C isis below
below BB then
then Ll.y
Ay
is
is negative.

(iii) The slope b is given by ay/4x.

by fly/ AX. Note that Ay and Cix
that,6y Ax are measured in the
axes, and
units of the y and x axes, !!2! in
and not in actual
actual distance
distanoe on
on the
the paper
paper in
in
eta.
centimetres etc.

An alternative algebraic method of

of calon]Rting
oalculating the
the aa and
and bb coefficients
ooe fficients for
for aa
line is
straight line is as
as follows:
fo llows:

(i)
(i) Take
Takn any two oonvenient points on the line,
convenient points line, designated
designated by
by (x1
(xl' Yj)) and
(x , Y2)'as
(x2, y2),as shown on the diagram
diagram below.
2
 - 118 _
-118-

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Y2
y2 -----1-------------
I
I
I
I

X2
x1

(ii) Caloulate the

Calm/IPA() the slope as:
slope bb as:

b
(72-7.1)/( xrx1

(iii)
(iii) Caloulate the interoept
Calculate the as:
intaroept as:

a y

1.2 'I'ransfonmtions for Curve

°transformations Pittillg
Curve Fitti

JIe.ny relationehipe between variables in forest

Many relationships forest yield prediotion are in the form of
o=ves
curves when represented graPhioally.
When represented grarhioally. The model,or partioular equation that
modeloor particular that represents
represents the
the
ourve, must be known if an ~
OUSVE4 exact representation of
of the ourve
curve is to be worked out.
out In
practioe, the correot
practice, oorreot model
model is not usually only an
and only
known and
usually known an approximation is possible.

Perhape
Perhaps the most
most easily fitted and used approximating
approrlmat1Dg equations
equations are
are those
those whioh
whioh
involve transformations of the x or y
imrolve Y units, but leave
leave the
the general equation in
general equation linear form.
in linear form.
transformations are:
Common transforystions are:

log10
10g'0 x logarithm to the
logarithm the base
base 10
10
x
loge In
log or in
e-
"
it
It
"
11
"tt e (2.71828....)
e (2.71828 .... )
1/X
1/x reoiprocal
reoiprooal

JX square root
square
~
x2 square

The transformations
traneforuations can be applied
Dan be applied te
w both the X
x and y variables to give
give various
va.r10tlS
combinations andresultant curves.
ourves.
 --119-
119 -

Datathat
Data that is
is obviously
obviously not linear in
not linear in form
form oan
can be
be plotted
plotted using various transfo~
using various transforma-
tiona
tions until aa linear shape is obtained.
obtained. The work isis reduoed
reduced if one
one has
has some
some idea in
in advanoe
advance
of the transformations likely to be be successful.
sucoessful. In the
the main part of
main part of this
this manual
manual examples
examples
for partioular types
for particular types of
of data
data are
are suggested.
suggested.

1.3
1.3 ExameleofofApproximation
Example Approximationofof
a aCurve
Curve.Akg_ltauformation ta.ajam121121422
Using Transformation to a Straight Line

Figure A.1.1(a) curve representing aa relationship

A01.1(a) shows aa ourve between tree volume (v)
relationshipbetween (V)
and diameter (D).
(D). We
We assume
"",sume that
that the
the curve
ourve has
has been
bee" drawn
drawn by
by hand
hand and it is
and it is desired
desired to
to
express it as
express it as an
en equation.
equation.

Points at convenient intervals

intervals on
on the
the x-axis
>:-axis are
are tabulated
tabulated from
from the
the graph:
graph.

Points
Points from Original
FUnction
Function way. coass.ncuutt..M.....arcl
_ansformations
Transformations
D V D2
D2 log
log DD log V
V
10
10 0.05 100
100 1.000
10000 -1.301
20
20 0.20 400 1.301 -0.699
30
30 0.45 900 1.477 -0.347
-0.347
40
40 0.85 1 600
1 600 1. 602
1.602 -0.071
50 1.50 22500
500 1.699 0.176
55 '.90
1.90 3 025
025 1.740 0.279

transformation tried
The first transformation tried ie shown in
is shown in figure
figure A.1.1(b),
A.1.1 (b), where D2 is
is plotted
plotted
V. The points from
against V. from the original
original curve
ourve almost
almost follow
follow a straight
straight linee
line, but there
there is
is
still a slight curvature
8. slight ourvature apparent.
apparent.

Another transformation is
Another transformation is shown
shownininfigure
figureA.1.1
A.1.1(c(0 ).
). Here
Here we
we have taken logarithms
have taksn
base 10
to base 10 of
of both
both axes. transformedvalues
axes. The transformed valuesare
arelishd
listed for
for the
the 6 selected
seleoted points in
in
the table
the table above.
above. ItIt can
oan be
be seen
seen that
that this
thistraneformation
transformation gives
gives anan almost
almost perfect
perfeot fit,
except
axoept for for the smalleet
amallest point whioh
whioh isis slightly
slightly above the linee
above the Fromthe
line. From the figure we
we can
oan
oaloulata!
calculate the slope
slope and interoept for this line. Taking
intercept for this line. Taking the two points (1.301,-0.699) and
points (1.301,-0.699)
((1.740, 0 .~79 ) shown
1 .740 , 0.279) shown bybythe
the double
doubleoiroles
oiroles on
on the
the figure
figure and
and as
as DD at
at20
20and
and 55
55 cm
om in
in the
table
table above,
above, we we have:
have.

b
b =
D (0.279 -- (-0.699))/(10740
(0.279 (-0.699»/(1.740 -- 10301)
1.301)
e 0.978/0.439
0.978/0.439
~
u 2.228
2.228

-0.699 -2.228
a =D -0.699 -2.228 xx 1.301
1.301
'c -3.597

So our
So our equation approximating
approxima-ting the curve
ourve in
in figure
figureA,1 01(a)
A.1.1 is:
(a) is:

logioV = -30597 + 2.228 log10p

 -- 120-
120 -

Figure A.1.1
Figure A. 1 .1

(a) 2 V

10 20 30
30 40
4.0 50 60

(b) 2 V

• ____~____~____~D2
~
1000 2000 300~

0,5 log V
(c)
(c) log V

0,0 log D
1,1
-0,5 -.

-1.0
-1,0

-1,5

Transformation ofof a hand...u-awn ourve to give a straight line

hand-drawn curve line approximation.
approrlmatioll.
(a) Original free-hand
free-he.nd curve
ourve with selected calculation of transformed.
seleoted points for oaloulation transformed values.
(b) x-axis transformed by seleoted points. (0)
by taking square of selected (o) xx and
and y axes
axes trauformed
tranaformed
logarithms to
by taking logarithms
by to base
base 10
10 of
of the selected
seleoted points.
points.
 -- 121 --

1.4
1.4 Pol:ynomials 1brfbr
E9),,non_lia,18 Curve Approximation
Curve Approximation

Equations involving only two ooeffioients

coeffioients are oonvenient
convenient for
for the
the approximation
approximation of
of
funotions they can
functions because they can be
be drawn
drawn as
as straight
straight lines
lines with
with suitable
suitable transformations.
transformations. Ho_
How-
ever, some shapes of
of curve
ourve cannot
cannot be
be treated
treated in
in this way. In this
this way. this oase
case the teohaique
teohnique of
fitting a quadratic or cubic
oubio polynomial
polynomial to
to the
the function may yield
funotion may yield good
good results.
results.

A polynomisl is
A polynomial is an
an equation
equation of
of the
the form:
form:
2
y ~ b + b x + b x 2 + b x 3 + •••• +bxn
n
O + blx
b0 1 2 + b3x3
b2x 3 bnx

where nn is
is the 2!:!!!!: and
the order the bi
and the b i are
are ooefficients.
ooeffioients. The higher
The higher the
the order
order the
the greater
greater the
the
flexibility of the funotion.
funotion. On the other hand
hand,y high
high order
order polynomials
polynomials are
are diffioult
difficult to
fit
fit by manual techniques.

For quadratio (2nd order)

quadratic (2nd order) and oubic
cubic (3rd order)
order) polynomials,
polynomials, manual
manual caloulation
calculation ofof
the ooeffioients
ooefficients is possible in about 30 minutes
minutes with the help of aa 4-funotion (+, -,
4-function (+9 x, t)
-9 X9 4.-)
caloulator.
calculator. A form
form is
is provided
provided to
to assist
assist the
the user
user (form
(form .1..1) which shows in this
AA) which this case the
the
fitting of a cubic equation
equation to
to the
the line
line in
in figure
figure A.1.2.
A.l.2. Fbur
Four points are taken from
from the
the
fitted and entered in table (1) of the form. The
function to be fitted and entered in table (1) of the form. The points
points need not
not be in
in any
order, but it
it is
is desirable
desirable that:
that:

(i) One point each should represent

represent the
the two
two extremes
extremes of
of the funotion. (In this
the function.(In this
case, Xl and X .)
case, X1 and X3.)
3
(ii) X not be an extreme point !!
x4 should ~ if the quadratic
quadratic equation coeffioients
coefficients are
are
4
to caloulated.
to be calculated.

(iii) The other points should be

be more
more or
or less
less evenly
evenly spaced.
spaced.

(iv) When ally

lIhen only the quadratio to be caloulated,
quadratic equation is to three points
calculated,three points are
sufficient.

A.l explains
Form A.1 explains the
the neoessary
neoessary caloulations.
oaloulations.

Quadratic
QuaBratic and oubio ourves provide a useful means of approximating hand-drawn ourves
cubic curves curves
by an equation.
equation. When
lIhen using
using them
them the
the following
following details
details should
should be
be noted:
noted:

(i) Always check

wAlayE cheok the
the calculations
calculations and the suitability
and the suitability of
of these
these curves
curves by
by drawing
drawing
funotion on top of
the function of the original curve.
ourve. It is
is usually
usually preferable
preferable to
to start
start
by fitting the quadratio equation. Then, if this is
quadratic equation. is not sufficiently
suffioiently accurate,
accurate,
oubic equation
compute the cubic equation coefficients.
ooeffioients.

(ii) !!m!:
Never use aa polynomial equation
equation to extrapolate
extrapolate beyond
be;yond the two extreme
extreme points
used in fitting
fitting it. ext~polation is neoessary,
it. If extrapolation necessary, extend the hand-drawn
first and then fit
curve first fit a new
new equation
equation with a new extreme point.
 -- 122 -
122-

Figure
Figure A01.2
A.1. 2

Hand-drawn curve appronllBtion

Hand-<irawn curve approximation by
by aa cubic polynomial.
polynomial. see form
(see A.1for
fcrm A.1 for oalcula.tions)
calculations)

yY
25
y3 ___________________________- -
20 yk _____________________ _

J2________ _____ _
15

10 _~ ______ _

5
,
, I

:X1 ,X2 IX!. :X3

X
5 10 15 20 ~ 25
 -- 123 --

FOrm A.1
Form A.1 Coef fioients for an
Coefficientt_112E tinguedraticor
an approximating
app quadratic orcubic
oubiocurve
ourve

alt2-li_xe:
Objective: celoula.te the
To calculate the coeffioients
coeffioients bi
bi in
in either
either of
of the
the equations:
equations:

y.' ·x + b3'~
b + b .X + bb2.X2
bo
0 1
+ b1X 2 3
2
b .X3 (cubic,
(oubio curve)
or
Or
IC= b +
y. bo b .X .. b
o + b1.X
1 b2.X2
2
.x? (quadratic curve)
curve)

Items marked
Items marked<>.0are
arenot
not required
required for
for the quadratic
quadratic curve calculations.
curve oalculations.

(1)
(i) Tabulate33 or
Tabulate or 44 data
data points
points for the function
funotion and
and compute
oompute squares
Bquares and cubes.
and cubes.

Ii 1 2 33 44
<>
<>
Yj 9.2 16.0
16.0 21.0
21.0 19.4
<>
<>
XI 5 10 20
20 15
15

X~
<>
25 100 400
400 225
11111111111111
<> <> <> <>
X? I
125 1000 8000
8000 3375

(2) From table (1) calculate

table (1) calculate differences
differenoes as
.... sbown:
sholm:

+,- Xi X~+, -X~ X3 _X3

I 't, - ~
)( Xi 1

<>
<>
i+'
i+1 i
1 6.8 5 75 875
<>
22 55 10 300
300 7000
<> <> <> <>
3 -1.6
-1.6 -5 -175 -4625
--4625

(3) From table (2)

From table (2) construct
construot the
the terms
terms shown
shown in the table
tablebelow
below according
aocording to the
the
following definitions:
following definitioBS'

I U·I Vi W. u. (Y1+'-Yi)/(X + -X )
I u
ii G
i4,1 i i 1 ii
1+1
<>
1 1.36 15 175 v.
vii •
fx2 ...x2Nitx.
(X~+,-~)/(Xi+1-Xi)
i.0-1 ill 1+1 ii
_a N

<>
2 0.5 30 700
Wi ''- (X3i+1-X3i)/(Xi+1-Xi)
wi (\+1-\)/(Xi + 1-Xi )
<> <> <>
3 0.32 35 925

/ ...
 -124-
- 124 -

Form A.1
Fbrm (oontinued ••• )
A.1 (continued...)

(4)
(4) (3) calculate
From table (3) oaloulat8 the
the terms
terms in the following table
in the table from
from these
these defini-
defini- ·
tiODDI
tions:

Ii Vi+1-Vj
Vi+--V P
p-t qj Pi· (ui+1-ui)/(vi+1-vi)
(ui+1 -u )/(vi+1 -v )
<>
1
1 15 ..0.05133
-13.05733 35
<> <> (w )/(v
qi - (w1+1-;,)/(v1+1-i)-v )
<>
2 55 -0.036
.c1.0.036 45
i+1 i i+1

(5)
(5) Caloulate the
Calculate the eoeffioients
coeffioients according
according to
to the
the following forroulae:
fomulae.

Coefficient
Coeffioient m.
Cubio ean,
Cubic azaz
Qaadra,tio ecm.
quadratic

None
None
b3 (p2-131)/(q2-011)

- 0.002133
0.002133

b P -b30q1
p1 •Q P
2
b2 1 3 1 P11

- -0.1)20
-0.1320
-
b uu1 u -b ,v
1
b1 1-b2 ·vt -b3ow1
-b2v
-b ·"1
3 1 2 1
u1-b2..v1

• 2.9677'
2.961
-
b
bo0 Y1-b1·X1-b2·~-b3·~
.X3
Y1 -b1 .X1 -b2 .X2-b3
1 1
Y1-b1'X1-b2'~
Y -b
1 1 2 1 1

x -2.5995

* * * . . .. * * *
 --125-
'''5 -
,1.5
.5 Graphs Invo Iv! ng Three Variables
Gra s Involvin

All the graphs considered

considered in the above paragraphs relate aa y variable with
with an x
variable. l(any
variable. Many relationships involve aa third variable .mioh
Which we
we may
may call
oall aa zz variable.
variable.
The graph may
may appear
appear something
something like
like this:
this:

+-______________________ x

Here, each
Here, eaoh level
level of
of z0 (z
(0'1' z2,
"2' distinct relationship be~
z3. eto.) forms a distinot ....en x
between
i
y.
and y. oases are common
Such cases withsito
common with site iodex
index ourves
ourvss Where
.mere height (y) depende
height (y) depends on
on age (x)
(x)
for
for different
different levels
levels of site
site index
index (z),
(z) oror volume
volume or
or basal
basal area
area. curves
ourves depending
depending on
on height
height
(x) and stand density
(x) density (z).
(z) .

Such syntemn
systems of
of ourves having
having been
been drawn
drawn by data may
through data
by hand through may need
need to
to be
be
expressed as equations for caloulation or tabulation
tabulation purposes,
purposes, for
for 11238
use in
in aa computer
computer
programme,
programme, or simply
simply for
for convenience
convenienoe of communicationand
of communication andanalysis.
analysis.

The system of curves

ourves can
oan be expressed either:
either:

(i) series of
as a series of separate
separate equationm
equations with
with aa different
different relationship
relationship between
between xx
and yy for
for eaoh
each level
level of
of z; or
"; .2!:

(ii) equation in
as a single equation in which
.mioh z" enters
enters as
as aa distinot
distinot variable.
variable.

first method
The first method can
oan lead
lead to
to the
the seoond
seoond by
by the
the prooess
prooess called
called harmonization.
harmonization. Sets
Seta
of equationn
equations of the first
first type have two
two disadvantages
disadvantagessI

(i) There is no method of determining aa value of y given

given aa •z value
value intermediate
intermediate
between the levels
between levels chosen.
ohosen.

(ii) A number of
A large number of coefficients
coeffioients are
are required
required to
to describe
desoribe the
the curve
ourve system.
system.

Equations of the second type are therefore to be preferred;

preferred; they are
are IOOre
more conoise
concise
oan be used to calculate
and can oaloulate y for
for any
any given valuse
values of x and z (within the
the range
range of
of the
the
ourve
curve system).

example below
The example bolow shows
shows how
how aa system
system of
of harmonized
ha.rIOOnized curves
ourves can
oan be
bo constructed.
constructed. The
general prinoiple graphing the ooeffioient
principio involves graPhing coefficient values
values against
against the
the •z variable
variable levels
levels
for each coefficient,
and for ooeffioient, deriving a new expression
expression to predict
prediot the ooeffioient
coefficient value given
aa particular
partioular z.
z.
 - 126
126 -

1.6
. 6 Example:
Exam le: Fitting
Fitting en
an equation to aámstem
equationto systemofofcurves
ourvesby
byharmonization
harmonization

Figure A.1.3 shows aa system of height (H)

(H) over diameter (D)
(D) ourves
curves for
for individual
trees in four different age classes
olasses (A).
(A). The ourves
curves were
were originally drawn
drawn by
by hand
hand through
through
data.
data.

The
The first
first etage fit a separate
stage is to fit separate equation
equation to
to each line.
each line. It
It is
is deoided
decided to use a
quadratiC
qlmaratic function as the approximating equation.
equation.

Figure A.1.3
A.1. 3

Hand-drawn ourves of
Handdrawn curves ofheight
height on
ondiameter
diameter for
for different age classes,
different age classes, to
to be
be
approximated
as. .ximated by harmonized quadratio
b harmonized equations
uadratio e uations (see exBlDple
see exam le in text).
in text .

30
30 H

A
25
25 ~--,20

----15
20
20

10
15

10
10

o o
4 8 12
12 16 20
20
 --127-
127 -

oalculations, which
The calculations, whioh are not shown, involve
involve selecting
seleoting 3 points from each line and
caloulating the coefficients
calculating ooeffioients according
according to the method of form A.1.
A.1. The selected points
points are
each curve
shown on each curve in
in the
the figure
figure by
by e' .a The tabl"
table below gives
gives the ooeffioient
coefficient values
values for
for
olass:
each age class:

Coefficients
Age
Age b b b
Class
------- O
b0 b11 22
55 2.2 1.0625 -0.0219
10 .6
6,6 1.0500 -0.0250
15 9.8
9.8 1.1375 -0.0281
20 12.5 1.2750 -0.0313

order to
In order to reduce
reduce the
the system
system of
offour quadratio equations to a single system, the
four quadratics
ooefficients bi must
coefficients bi must be
be made
made to
to depend
depend on
on age.
age. The form of this dependenoe
dependence can best be
seen by graphing the coefficients
ooeffioients against age class
olass (figure
(figure A.1.4).
A0104)0

From that
From that figure
figure it
it can
oan be
be seen
seen that
that the
the relation
relation between
between1)0
bO end
and age follows a..
bl versus
gentle curve, whilst bi versus age
age is
is aa steeper,
steeper , more
more asymmetric
asymmetric curve
curve; b2 versus age
exactly linear.
appears almost exactly linear. TheT'ne equations were calculated
caloulated (again
(again using form A.1) for
curves as
these three curves as follows:
follows:

2
b =- -0.0187
-0.0187 4.1.153
+1.153 AA -3.100 A
-3.100 A2 -(1)
O

b , =~1.225
b 1.225-0.0508
-0.0508 A +0.00400 A2
A -',-0.00400 ,f,.2 -6.67 xx 1U,-55 A3
10-

b2 = -0.0188 -0.000627 A ( 3)

equation for
The general equation for the
the linea
lines in
in figure Aala4 is
figure A.1.4 is the crivdratio
quadratic equation, as
earlier, with
selected earlier, with the
the form:
form:

H.b0 4-1)D4b2 D2
1
-(4)

ooeffioient valves
The coefficient values in equation (4) can
oan now be derived
darived for
for any
any age between
between the
the
limits 55end using equations
and 20 using equations (1)
( 1) to
to (3).
(3).

This is a fairly
fairly complex example of harmonization intended to to illustrate
illustrate the
the full
full
scope of
soope of the prinoiples involved.
the principles imTolved. In practice
praotioe some
some simplifioation
simplifiostion isis often
often acceptable.
acoeptable.
For
Por example,
example, in the above osse
case aa quite
quite olose
close approxima.tion
approximation to the original
to the originalhand-drawn
hsnd-drawn
funotion oan
function can be obtained if average values of b, end b2 are used end only be depends
if average values of b/ and b2 are used and only bo depeni13
as a linear function:
upon age as funotion:

bb =~ a + A
4- a , A
O
0 a0O 1

substituting for blac)

the overall equation, substituting O will be:
be:

H
H s aao + alA
a,A + biD
b , D + b2D2
b D2
O 2
 - 135
128 -

Coefficient values
Coefficient values plotted against 01a28 A
againnt age olass A for
for the
the
quadratic equationnfitted
quadratio equations fitted to
to the
the lines of figure A.1.1
offlgure A.1.3
(a)
( a)
bO
b0
14
~.
12
10
,/
,,
, . ~
, ~
~

88
,,
...
/

, ,
457.-

6
6
,,
, /
4 ,,
,,
2 A
5
5 10 15
15 20

( b)
(b)
~
,,•
bl
1.250 ,
,
I
I
I
I
1.200 I
,I
I
1.150 I

I
I •
Olt
I

I
1.100 ,I
, .-
, ~
,- ,
1.050 N A
55 - ,---- 10
10 15, 20

((c)
c) -0.020 b
b22
-0.022 ,,
,,
,,
-0.024
et,

-0.026
-0.028

-0.030

-0.032+-------~------~----~
-0.032 A
A
,,
,
.
55 10 15
15 20
 - 129
- 129 --

This
This model is not
not aa perfeot
perfeot fit (as is
fit (as is the
the one
one worked
worked out
out above)
above) but
but the
the error
error over
over
hand~awn function
the range of the hand-drawn is within .:!;
funotion is + m tof predioted height whioh may
m of predicted height which may well be
be
acoeptable original data was well scattered and consequently the
acceptable if the original the hand~wn
hand-drawn lines
lines
subject to some
some uncertainty.
uncertainty.

As with polynomials, harmonized functione

functions should nev_21,...1_3ee.Lar....e_p_asztracaationA
never be used for extrapolation'
extra.polation is
If extrapolation is necessary, draw the extended curve set by bend
hand toto cover
cover the
the range
range ofof
intended use and recalculate all the coefficients of the approximating function.
function.

2.
2. CURVE FITTING BY
BY LINEAR
LINEAR LEAST
LEAST SQUARES
SQUAHEl'! ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS

22.1
.1 Simple
Siplç Linear Regression
ession

Linear
Linear regression analysis
analysis is
is dealt
dealt with
with in
in many
many text
text books
books in
in great
great detail and with
detail and with
numerous e=mples (c.f.
numerous examples (c.f. Snedecor,
Snedecor, Draper Smith and
Draper &&Smith and Seber
Seber in
in the
the bibliograPhy).
bibliography) . ItIt is
is
proposed here only
only to give the barest outline of the fundamental
fundamental ideas
ideas,f basio
basic caloulations
calculations
and most essential statistical
statistical parameters.
parameters.

Linear least squares narmlysis

analysis isis a.a slightly
slightly more
more precise
precise name
name for
for linear
linear regression
regression
analysis.
analysis. It It refers to a technique
teohnique for
for fitting
fitting predictive
predictive equations
equations toto raw
raw data
data (i.e.
(i. e.
unamoothed
unsmoothed observations) based on the prinoiple of minimizing the squares
squares of the deviations
the deviations
from aa straight line
line through
through the
the points.
points. When the assumptions, which whiCh are
are listed
listed below,
below, are
are
fully satisfied the parameters (coefficients)
(ooefficients) for the fitted equation will will be those
those which
which
are
are most
most likely to be correct in a statistical
statistioal sense.
sense, I-/hen assumptions are !!21
When the assumptions not satis-
fied, then
fied, then the
the method will still give parameter estimates,
estimates , but they will no longer be the
will no
nest ones obtainable;
best obtainable; better parameter estimates could oould be obtained by deriving from first
prinoiples correot
principles correct "ma.zimum likelihood equations" for
"maximumlikelihoodequations" for the
the partice1pe
pa.-ticular class
class ofof problem
problem
involved. This latter
latter subject
subject is
is outeide
outside the the scope
soope of
of thie
this appendix.
appendix.

The definition of
of the simplest type
type of
of regression
regression problem
problem can
oan be shown with the help
help
of figure A.2.1. It involves a relationship
relationship between
between two variables, xx and
two variables, and y.
y. The
The x variable
variable
is
is assumed
assumed to be the one that is to be used to predict
prediot the y variable. statistioal
variable. The statistical
model is:
model is:

y a + b.x + e - (1)
-CO
deviations of each
where the ei are the random deviations aaoh point from
from aa line.
line . In figure
In figure A.2.1
A.2. 1 the
the
part
solid line represents the part

y a + bex

usually called the regression

usually regression equation,
equation. aa and b are the coefficients
ooeffioients of this
this equation whose
estimation from the data is the primary
primary purpose
purpose of
of the analysis. 'lb.e ei are
The ei are called
called'residuals,
'residuals'
and represent the
the vertical
vertical distances between the points
distanoes between points and the line.
and the
 -130 -

Form A.2
Form A,2 Calculation of
of statistics
statistics for
for simple
simple linear
linear regression
regression using
using Statform
Stat form 11
11
from Dawkins, 1968 (reproduced
Dawkins? 1968 (reproduced uith permission). The data
with pgrmission). is that
data. is shown
that shown
AllirAy:e
infi.-rore A21
• • •
A.2.1.

LINEAR REGRESSION and CORRELATION

REGRESSION and CORRELATION
C--
LiHe
Line
iI Nature of
N'tlIfC of the
the observations:
observations: H'1I::-r'"·.£.J:;':,-
Hsi fe-t--,-t L ....e
.
·~ ~~~.-
.541.1, -~~~~.'"
ct:4mil:or olweinctr-on-s
i pct: I:it~I-taimai Tr&E 1 ..
con t.".
O~
12 Dependent or 4.ft-hand
D,,:pl:ndclH left-hand variable,
variable, y:
33 {+fl..< y/-.t., t\t.
independent
IndqlL'lld cllt or right-hand
righe-hand variable,
variable. x:
44
~~, 00<.
1,--xxlej-42,r, c".
;s

6 Sums
SUlllS of
ofsquares
s'l u;'Jrcsand
:mdprOduCES.
products. In ... '3 . ....... pairs of observations
pairs

- E
Eyyx xEx ( 99 2_
Ex == 6,bl'l'l2.. =
(Ex)' =: f.3 5
C3 04- y x
6 0S. 1 e,
"
(Ey)' (Ex)2 <;O,+-
77 (Ey)2
Iv'
Iy'! =
(,0'>/
71 1..L ...5?
....... 71 Eyx . . :JI:?"L
1113.4 rX22 _= .
. . 53~J~'+4-
- -
H = 'g .... Ex I
II
It g8-
99 672..4-
(Ey)2/n--= 672-1-F
(~'y)'/n EyEx/n =
,-_-- 6bUg
VFV (Ex)2/11= = 70~b
(Ex)'/n 70 5 L
/01?
2..2-
2- 2- n11
io
10 SSy -=-- 'i9~
i'i'q- -
SPyx =- '1'£1
/51 SSx -=
SSx 10-1'1
("
tI (0 2-1I
2--
II
i i Linear
Lincar JJ.-Coefficient; Sl'yx/SSx =
Cocfiiciellt; SPyx/S5x - 0- gt 2- .4' t. .
l::),git2-.J --,
~ bb 2..L 2.,
11
12 regression
rl'grcss lon I, Constant; y-bx
y--bil.
COllStant; =
.--= .... .2
6 ..,431/11
...., . ~1 .1If - a
2..'1
2:i 3S
3s
13 Regression
Rt..'grcssioll 5S SS
- = bx SPyx = ...............5\l>!l
bx Sl'yx 3 9 ..9'1G
6 . :',\-
+ 32..
3 7._
q
14 Total SS is
is the
th e SSy. Total d.f.
d.f. =-
= ni == 11-1 •• H ••• K
8' .. .................
2.10
2_ to 2S
2..~
I;
13 Residual
Rt.'sidual SS and d.f.
5S and d,f. obtained by subtraction.
obrai ned by subtraction.
4-2-
14- 2- Lt:>
r, 6
6 ANOVAR Variance Table
17 Source
Sourcc SS d.L
d.f. MS ratio F 4-Lt Lrr::-
IH
18 Regression .gl 8,jI~
g38. Y 1I .. B?"],,,"
ES 7 .o 7-'
31'1 :z.,,-:- >
9---:>.Is
1 5 5- 0. .
L?'?.:'? 7 :U. . I4- @ '=0,
fze. II
19
19

10
20
Residual
Total 9-
qq'l- 8
21 of determination,
Coefficient of dc[crmillJ.tion, r2,
r2,
12
22 Regression SS/Total
Regressioll SS/T otal SSSS -= lr}~
g 3 1 I9<f.'+~
i cri Li- --- .~,tltlf
0 / 44= = r2r'
23 Coefficient of
CocRicicllt of lin
linear correlation, r,
car correlation,
14
24 rr -= IT-.
ff= ~.:. '1.11. .,!7
6:7-, .... with sign as for bb

2S
25 Residual
Residual standard deviation --
standarddeviation = -= .. /t.:.]
4- -1 .L
I . - SD.
VResid. MS SO. rcsid.
mid. -=--

26 Coefficient of
of residual variation '}~-=-=toox
residual variation% SI)resid./F
IOOX ./y = 1,'11%=
SI) resid.------- i.i...i.X = CV%
CV% Ey
Iy Ex
Ix
27 Standard error for
Standard error for random
random samples
samples == SD SOresid./ Vii =--=/,>7
mid.1%/77 ¿$7 7 - SE. resid. 2..+'-
SE. mid. '2-Q.
2-+ k) 2--S--
18
28 Student's
Student's t t(or
for11-2
nz d.f.
d.f. and
and Pos
P.OS is ~.,...~.b
is .......2. 16... y x
2?.
27.1i 2jl
29 Sampling error %
error°,;) - Iootx
= !ootXSE.
SE. resid.h7
resid)y -= qJ,C?o~
(" (P 434 = E,
= E~ ~,
2- g
30 Standard error of
Stalldard ofthe
thecoefficient
coefficient bb isis -IRcsid. MS/SSx
N/Resid. MS/SSx = 0 1::>.,.('+
.f 4- -3 ..3...$...... =
- SEb
SE()
3!
31 Its t-r<ltio
Its t-ratio isis b/SEb,
b/SEb,oror,""variance
N/varianceratio,
ratio, -= / S. 4.
. .6. ,.1..5. 4 ...... - t-ratio
t-racio

32 Confidence limits
limits for estimation of y from observations
for estimation of x;ififnimobservations
observations °Ex; observations are arc taken
taken of
of x,
x, having
having
33 aa mean
mean of
ofx'.
x', chere
there are
are IIInipossible
possibleestimates
estimates
ofof
y .y.Confidence
Confidencelimits
limitsforfortheir meany'y(=
theirmean (=Eylni)
Ey!m) arc:

l4
34 ±tx SD.
y' ±tX SO. residX
resid x j.!, ++ .!.I 4(x'x.)
V-1 -t{x' -X/
2
35
35 ni
/II n SSx

Stntj(lrm
Statform 11 COllmlOlllllt'olth Forestry
11 Commonwealth Forestry Instilllte.
Institute, Oxford
Oxford 1968
 --131
131 --

azure
Figure A.2.I
A.2.1 A simple linear
A simple linear regression
regression model
modelfitted
fitted to
to data
data

y
50

40

, /
/
/
•
/
/
/ /
30 /
/

/
/0/

,. /
/
.
•
.
/
/
/
/ /
/
/
/ /
/

20 /
/
/
/
/

" •
/
,. ,.
/
/

• ,. "
/
/

,. , /

• ,. ,,
10 /

, ,. /
,,
/
o x
10 20 30 40
40 50
50

Regression line
Regression line yy = a + b.x

interval at
Confidence interval at 95%
95% level

o Point formed by mean x and yy values

values in data
data
 - 132
132-

assumptions made
The assumptions made in
in simple
simple linear
linear regression
regression are
are that:
that:

(i) model is
The model is truly
truly linear,
linear, as
as represented
represented by
by equation
equation (1)
(1) above,
above, and
and not
not
curved in
curved in any
any sense.
sense.

(ii) are normally

The residuals are normally distributed
distributed with
with aa constant
constant variance
variance over
over the
the
of x values
range of values under
under consideration.
oonsideration.

(iii) are indepenaent

The residuals are independent of
of each
each other;
other; they are not correlsted
oorrelated or
in any
grouped in any way.
way.

(iv) The values of the sample points

points on
on the
the xx axis
axis can
can be
be determined
determined exactly.
exaotly.

The caloulation
calculation of the various
various statistios
statistics required for
for linear
linear regression
regression analysis
analysis are
are
shown in form A.2,
A.29 whioh
which reproduces Statform 11
11 from Da.wkins
Dawkins (see bibliography forfor details)
details)
working of
with the working of the
the data
data shown
shown in
in figure
figure A.201.
A.2.1. The most important statistics
statistios are the
coefficients (lines 1111 and 12), the variance ratio (lille 18),
ratio (line 18), the
the coefficient
coefficient of
of determina,-
determina-
tion r2 22), the residual standard deviation (line 25)
r2 (line 22), and the
25) and the confidence
confidence limits
limits for
for
predictions (lines
(lines 32-35).
32-35).

the residual standard deviation are useful for

The r2 values and the for the comparison of
regressions. the r2
regressions. The higher the r2 the
the more
more precise
precise the
the relation.
relation. When r2 isis one
one, the residuals
zero and
are zero and the
the data
data fall
fall exactly
exactly on
on the
the line.
line. Similarly, the closer
closer the residual standard
standard
to zero,
deviation approaches to zero, the
the more precisely
precisely the regression predicts the y values. The
values. The
oonfidence intervals of
confidence the regression line show the limits wi
of the thin which the true mean of aa
within
selected number of yy values should
should lie.
lie.

It will be noted that the regression line

line will always pass through the point
point formed
formed
by the mean
mean of
of the
the xx and
and yy values.
values. The confidenoe bands are also
also curved in form and become
form and become
rapidly wider as one moves outside the range of the data contributing
oontributing to the regression.
regression.

The x variable in a regression analysis is is aalled

called the independent
independent or predictor
variable; it provides the on which
basis on ..n.ich the
the predictions
prediotions will
will be made. The y variable
be made.
is called the dependent
is dependent or
or response variable;
response variable; it it is
is assumed to be controlled
oontro lled in some
degree by
by the level of the prediotor variables.
predictor

2.2
2.2 Regression with Two Predictor Variables

Regression with two predictor

prediotor variables assumes the model

Y =
b0 b1X b2Z

X and
where the X and ZZ are
are known
known predictor
prediotor variables
variables and
and YY is
is the
the dependent
dependent variable; the bi
coeffioients to
are the coefficients to be assIDDptions and general principles
be determined. The assumptions prinoiples are the sane
same
as for
for simple linear
linear regression.
regression. The ooeffioients
coefficients and statistics for this model can oan be
calculated by hand although the method is rather moremere involved than for
for simple linear
linear
regression. It is a useful model for fitting a variety
regression. variety ofof curves,
curves, as will become
beoome apparent
2.3.
in section 2.3.
 -- 133
133 --

shows how
Form A.3 shows how the
the calculations
caloulations proceed.
proceed. The example uses
The example uses the
the data
data from
from figure
figure
A,2.1 and form A.2 for the height-diameter relationship of 9 sample
A.2.1 and form A.2 for the height-diameter relationship of sample trees,
trees, but
but this
this time
time with
with
the addition of an extra
extra variable
variable (diameter)2,
(diameter)2, so
so that
that the
the equation
equation being
being fitted
fitted becomes:
becomes:

H =
b0 + blD + b2D2

After working
working through
through the
the form
form the
the coefficient
coefficient values
values calculated
oalculated are:
are:

bb0== 8.31177
O
bb1 = 0.371583
1 =
bb2== 0.00953469
2

all to 66 significant
significant digits.
digits. It is important when carrying out the
When oarrying the calculations
calculations toto work
work
to 6 or more
more signifioant
significant digits
digits and not
not to
to round.
round small numbers
numbers (such
(such as
as gl'
g1, g2'
g2, g3
g3 in
in the
the
example) to a few decimal places;
emample) to plaoes; otherwise considerable
considerable loss
loss of
of accuracy
acouracy may
may result.
result.

The lower variance ratio and t-values for the ooeffioients

ooeffioients obtained withwith this
this
regression as compared with
mdth the earlier linear one (figure A. 2.1, form A.2)
A.201, A.2) refleots
refleots the
the
fact that the additio;'
fact extra variable increases
addition of the extra inoreases the uncertainty
unoertainty of thethe parameter
estimates with
estimates with respeot
respeot to
to the
the population
population from
£'rom which
which this
this sample
sample of
of points
points was drawn. In
was drawn. In
this case neither of the t-values is significant for the two variable coefficients coefficients b1
b1 and
and
bb2,
2 ; this
°this indicates
indicates that
that the
the model
model would
would be just
juet as
as effioient
efficient for
for prediotion
priction
ed purposes
purposes if
one
one or
or other
other variable
variable were
were ommitted.
omitted.

2.3 Data Transformations and Curve Fitting

ourvilinear functions
Various types of curvilinear funotions may
may be fitted using
be fitted using linear regression tech-
by making
niques by making appropriate transformations
transformations of
of the
the dependent and predictor
predictor variables.
variables. It
It
making transformations
is desirable when making transformations of
of data
data to proceed
prooeed through the following
following stages:
stages:

(i) untransformed data on normal graph

Plot the untraneformed examine it
graph paper and examine it to Bee
see whether
any curvature in the trend line
line is
is apparent.
apparent.

(ii) If aa curvature is apparent, select an appropriate transformation for the

and/or predictor
dependent and/or prediotor variables and
and calculate
calculate transformed
transformed values
values for
for
each
eaoh data point.

transformed values
Plot the transformed values onon normal
normal graph paper and
graph paper and examine
examine the
the points
points to
whether the
see whether the trend
trend is
is now
now linear.
linear. If it is, fit a regression using the
transformed data values.

!!he selection of
The of a suitable
suitable transformation
transformation can be aided
oa.n be aided by
by the
the diagrams
diagrams in
in figure
figure
illustrate some commonly
A.2.1, which illustrate oommonly used
used curve
ourve shapes.
shapes. Ftnctions
Functions (a)
(a) to (d)
(d) can
oa.n be
by simple regression. Functions (e)
fitted by (8) and
and (f)
(f) require two predictor
require two prediotor variables;
variables;
consequently
consequently the traneformed
transformed values
values cannot
oannot be
be examined
examined graPhically
graphically as
as in
in (iii)
(iii) above.
above.
 1

-- 134 --

Form A.3
Fbrm Coefficients and
Coefficients and statistios
statistics ofofa aregression
regressionmith
withtwo
two
predictor variables
variables (part 1)

Description of problem: "/~tJJr-,p.·(),,,,~e.-

of problem: ClII.~f(;;QA e,..~\;'
1-1-u?ki, - amid- ee- cd.carakfra,v,
~ A A.2.1
'2- I (,..4.-,,;..r... "' - 1- ~
•
(1)
(1) Regression
Regression data ( 4) Corrected
Corrected products
.._

Y
Y X
X ZZ IyC. =
Ey = LY xyc._(LY)c./
-(BY) /n n = 'i~
ci`1oj-.OOO
+.000
IXY IXY-IX.XY/n =
zxy == zXY-EC.I.Y/n. = "/51. 000
1/
¡I g
g '-If.
42 It..
Izy = IZY-IZ,IY/n
Ezy
000

>2. 33 H21 . (,. 6--,

ZZY-EZ.EY./n = 5'2.
H
2.2. 11
11 LJ~
24 9
Ix2 2
Ex2 == XX _( IX) 2/n = ,(78
EX2-(EX)2/n (o7B·ooO .000
'"
i6
22-
2 /.
1.1
2-1

2-1
C+'l-I
44.1
8<+1
841
Exz == EXZ-EX.
l:Xz
Iz2
IXZ-IX. EZ/n.
Ez2 -= l:Z2_UZ)2jn
IZ2-"122-61 -=
511i . oo
IZ/n == ;l1/b.o
32.3 3S0/
32.1S.>o/.,S'b
o0
SS. C.,
1.1
29 H
3 5 11.... S
t 2_2-5

32..
3:1- so?...q.
10 l..'/- ( 5) Determinant
(5) Determinant & &Gauss
Gaussmultipliers
multipliers
3'1-
3 Li f---T7T---7l:xz) c. =
D
D == zx
IXc..ol:zc._(
IZ -- Exzi 15'1."1.
= /.5. 9,020.?'f
4,743',02.0.
Jj, z5
z.~
bH
(.2.-S
2- b g1= l:Z2/D
gl= Zz2/D = oo.. o0;/,0 2.4-4.4-1
zo 2.4. --/
urS
If-S Lois-<;
1.01.
= -0.
-0.000360 rt1
g2= -l:xz/D
Ij.}....
/4-2- g2= -Exz/D = 0 003(,07'\1
g3= Zx D
Iqt era g3= l:X2/D ~ 10-"
'l-lI-
Li-4 to)
'fO II. 0-0 = 6'.138~
= 13a2 ::/t)-')
((6)
6) Regression coefficients
coefficients
bi=
~= g1.Exy-t-g20Zzy
gl,l:xy+g2' l:zy == o·.nl
0.3.7t5S3
S83 !

b 2= g20
b2= Exy+g30zzy == C.
g2,l:xy+g3,l:zy o. cao
co 95~53q-Cci
34-''1
bo= T-b1Z-b2.Z
b O'" 'l-bl ,I-b 2 ·Z' ==gIf.
3 ,,,,1
311 77 77

( 7) Regression sum of s'Luares

sum of s uares
-772
l:~2
zy = '" b10Exy+b2.Ezy
b l , Ixy+ b , Izy == 8,52_,
852..14-
4...
2
(8)
(8 ) Residual
Residual sum
SUDl of
of squares
squares ---
Id~",
Ea= Eyr.y~-IY~ = /4-1. toft,
=
- -
(9
(9)) Residual degrees of
of freedom
freedom
( 2)
2) Totaas
Tota1.s and
and -products
products df_ n-3 == lc,
Idf= 10

Y ' 111'6
Iy2 7 -ng Ey IY ~4-" (9 EXY 783,
IXY 19~., I'4Y 274-",
zzY 2.741
n '1 IX :z..~2-
zx IZ
zZ '11:3 +
?13

(3) ~!eans
IX2 '11 1'1> 4- IXZ
i:kz ~~~.,&~
Y = XY/n =
X = IX/n '"
27.
LS
:a LELI__g2fi
l::,I2 /" i'89.j 3,<
t ,

B
Z' '" IZ/n '" 90 3.i
 - 135-
135

Form A.3 ((...Part

••• Part 2)
2)

(10)
10) Correlations between variables
r
ryx r.x:yI {( r.x7 • ry7) = O·"H87
yx = Exy/l(ix2.zy2) = (9.1(87
ryz =
r
Yz
I-.
= r.yz/{(
ZyzAlk rz2. r.y2) ==
Zz2 .Ey2 0.92-24
O.'p .. 2\f-
r rt 2 Ez2%
= r.xz/{(r.x
Zxz/y k Ix2.r.z
2)
= 0.9-16g
xz =
rxz o. 'llb&

1(11) Multiple correlation coefficient

Yultiple correlation and RR~
coefficient RR and
R2 == r9''Iry= <!).sns
(9. 3575
IR2
R - rR2
,R - 0.12-60
O.<p.. /:,O

( 12) Analysis of variance

sum
sum of mean variance
variance
SQua.res
squares d. f.
d. f. square
square ratio
Re,q:ression r.S'22 8!)2 . 1~ 4-2.~.ll 13.o~
18. 0
Regression 852.34. 22
Residual IÇ122 (4.1Gb df b
r.d /1j.1.!.b en :n.(.,1
2-4.(01 s2
= s2
=
2 n-l g
Total rzy2
y 991}..Cro 11
"I'Ilf. .0"0 n-1 S

(13) Residual st
st .dard
dard deviation

s =
. {s2
2 = (4 3 6
= 4·86

(14) Standard error and t-value

t-value of coefficients
.
Coefficient bl b2

Standard error sb
¡Standard
5b s.igi= O·"'1IS
s.{fh= 0,0tS oig3= 0.0
s.{g3= (,2-
0.0121:1(12-

Itt== b/ab
blsb -31
o .{?,'"
0 O,,~b
0 .--1%-6

(15) Confidence intervals

intervals for
for predictions
predictions
of mm estimates
For a series of estimates of
of YY·at
at aa given
given level
level of
of XX and
and Z,
Z,
the
the standard error
errcr of the mean prediction
prediction is
is given
given by:
by:

y = S.V.(1/111 +1/n + g1.x2 + 2.g2.x.z + g3.z2)

X) and
where x = (X - Y) zz = (Z -- 7).
Z). For a large sample,
swnple, l/m
11m
will be zero;
zero; for a single
single point
point it
it will
will be
be unity.
unity.
 - 136
136 --

Pigure A.2.1
Figure A.2.1 Curve shapes resulting
resulUng from
fro.. different functions
funotions
be fitted by
that can be_fitted b;y linear
linear regression.
regression.
(c
(c = lOa
10a or ea
e& depending onon whether logarithns
logarithms
to base 10 or base ee are
are used.)
used.)

((a)
a) log yy = a +
log + b
b log
log x
x (b) yy =
= a
a +
+ b
b log
log x
x
y Y
Y

,,
»=1
/ a-
,/
o
b<l
b<0
e

b<O
x x
1

(e)
( c) log yy =
log = a +
+ b/x
b/x d)
( d.) log yy == aa ++ b.x
log b.x
y y
b>O
e
e
_ _ b<O

__________________ b>O
e
b<O
x x
 - 137
137 --

azure
Figure A.2.1
A.2.1 continued.••••e))
(oontinued

e) 3T= a+ bx+ b2x2

(f) log yy =; aa ++
log bilog
~log xx ++ b2x
b x
2
y

b1<0' b2>0

x
 -- 138
138 --

The effeot
The effeot of
of data
data transformations
transformations upon
upon the
the basic
basio assumptions
assumptions of
of linear
linear regression
regression
involves three
involves three important
important points:
points:

(i) Regressions in
in which
whioh the
the same
same dependent
dependent variable
variable has been subject
has been subject toto different
different
transformations cannot
transformations cannot be
be compared
compared directly
direotly for
for goodness
goodness of
of fit
fit using
using the
the
correlation coefficient
correlation coefficient RR (or
(or R2).
R2).

(ii) 'ilie
The distribution of the residuals
residuals will be influenced
influenoed by any
any transformation
transformation of
of
the dependent
the dependent variable.
variable.

(iii) The regression may

may be
be biased by
by a transformation
transformation of
of the
the dependent
dependent variable.
variable.

For comparison
comparison of
of regressions
regressions for
for goodness
goodness of
offit
fit when
whensevera],vtransformations
severalytransformations of
of
the
the dependent variable are
dependent variable are involved,
involved, the
the Furnival
Furnival Index
Index must
must be
be used-7.
used • This
This is
is calculated
calculated
as:
as:

FI== s.
FI n
s. (( n f
f ' (y)
( Y)-1)
-1) 1/n
1/n

or more simply:
or more simply:

FI . s. antilog (( Elog f'(y)-1)/n)

Here ss is
Here is the
the residual
residual standard
standard deviation
deviation from
from the
the fitted
fitted regression;
regression; n is
is the number
number
of
of data points; and f'(y)-1
data points; f'(y)-1 is
is the
the reciprocal
reoiprooal of
of the
the derivative
derivative ofof the
the transformation
transformation
applied to the
applied to the yyvariable with respect
variable with respect to
to y.
y.

Since the non-mathematical

non,mathematical reader will not be familiar with derivatives,
derivatives, appropriate
appropriate
forms for the
forms for the commonest
oommonest transformations
transformations are
are given
given below:
below:

-11
Transformation f'(yr
None 11
logioy
log1OY 2.3026 y
log y y
Y
e
logey
y/w
Y/w w
1/y -I-
"1.2

:I-
yk 1/(qk-1
11(kYk-4))

In the above y
y is
is the original data
data variable, ww is
is any weight to be used
used in fitting
the y to normalise residuals (see
(see later
later section
seotion on weighted regression for
for more details),
k is
is any constant that is used to transform y by
by raising
raising it
it to
to aa constant
constant power.
power. E.g. ifif
.;
y2 were the
the dependent
dependent variable,
variable, kkwouad be 2.
would be 2. Note that when no
When no transformation is applied
is
the Furnival Index is identical with the residual standard
standard deviation.

11
1/ See Furnival, G.14.
See Furnival, GoM., 1961 canparing equations used in constructing volume
1961 An index for comparing volume
tables.
tables. Forest Science 7(4)337-341.
7(4)337-341.
 139 -
- 139

Given aa set
set of
of regressions
regressions for which FUrnival
for Which Furnival Indices
Indices have been computed,
have been computed, all
involving the same basio
basic dependent
dependent va.ria.ble,
variable, the
the equation
equation which
Which fits
fits best
best will
will be
be that
that with
with
the smallest index.
index.

The effect of transformations upon the residua.ls'

residuals' distribution
distribution and
and upon
upon the
the bias
bias of
of
the regression
regression will considered in
will be considered in detail
deta.il in
inthe
the section
section upon
upon residual
residua.l analysis
a.na.lysis and
weighting. FbrFor simple usage of the tra.nsforma.tion
transformation principle in association
association with
with ma.nua.l
manual
caloula.tion, correotion factor for bias resulting from aa logarithmic
calculation, the correction logarithmic transformation
transformation of of
the dependent variable
va.riable should
should be
be mentioned.
mentioned.

correction factor
This correction faotor for bias, due to MeyerY,
Meyer], assumes
assumes that
that the
the model
model being
beingcalcu,.
calcu-
lated has the form:
lated has form:

log Y = f(x)
loga + ei
f(x) + e.
a ~

where the errors ei

wheretheerrors. el are normally
normally distributed and
a.nd homogeneous with
with aa standard
standard deviation
deviation s,
s,
which is the residual
residua.l standard deviation calculated
calcula.ted in the regression analysis.
analysis. The model
to be
that is to actua.lly applied
be actually applied is
is however:
however:
(r(x)
(f(x)))
y=
y = a
a

whepe a is
where is either
either 10 or ee depending
10 or depending on
on whether
whether common
common or
or natural
natural logarithms
logarithms are to be used.
If the assumptions about error distribution are correct, thenthan aa systematic error will occur
which can
which ca.n be
be compensated
compensated for
for by using aa correction
by using correction factor
factor CC so
so that
that the above formula
formula.
becomes:
(f(x))
y = C.a (f(x))
y= C.a

The correction
correction factors
factors for
for common
common and
a.nd natural
natural logs
logs are:
are:

(i) Common (base

Common (base 10) logs:
10) logs:
C ~= 10.1.1513
C 10.1.1513 s2
s2

(ii) Natural (base

Natural (base e)
e) logs:
logs:
s2 2
C = e
C = /
es2/2

where ss is
where is the
the residual
residua.l standard
standard deviation
deviation obtained
obtained from
from the
the original
original regression
regression with
with log
log
y.
validity of
The validity of the
the correction
correction factor
factor is
is dependent upon
upon assumptions about error
error
distribution which
distribution which need
need not
not be
be correct.
correct. Hence,
Henoe, it
it is not
not possible
possible to state in any
any fixed
fixed
or dogmatic fashion
fashion that this
this correction
correotion Should
should or
or should
should not
not be
be used
used in
in aa pprticular
particula.r case;
oase;
preferably the distribution of
preferably of the residuals
residu:;.ls should
should be
be examined
examined graphically
graphically as
as described
described in
in
analysis before
the section on residual analysis before arriving
arriving at any
a.ny decision.
deoision.

In practice, when the

the degree of
of fit
fit obtained
obtained is
is high
high (i.e.
(i.e. R2
R2 over about 0.9) then
va.rious arguments about alternative
the various alternative fitting
fitting methods,
methods, error
error distributions,
distributions, etc.,
etc., are
are
essentially academio; the fitted function may be safely
essentially academic; safely manipulated
manipula.ted and transformed as
it
it it
it were aa deterministic algebraio funotion.
algebraic function.

JV
Y Meysr, H.A., 1944. A
See Meyer, A oorreotion systematio error
correction for systematic error occurring
ooourring in
in the application
logarithmio volume
of the logarithmic volume equation.
equation. Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania. State
State University
University Fbrest
Forest Research
Researoh Paper
Paper 7.
 140
- 140 -

2.4
2.4 Multiple Regression Analysis

linear regression and regression with two

Simple linear two prediotor
predictor variables
variables represent
represent models,
models,
of the
respectively, of the type:
type:

Y a a + b.X
Y = -(1)
Y a a + b1 .X + b2.Z -(2)

a, by
where a, b, b1
b 1 and b2 are
and b2 are the
the coefficients
coeffioients to be estimated
estimated and X, Z and Y Y are variables.
variables.
Both of
of these are
are examples
examples of
of the
the general
general multivariate
multivariate linear
linear regression
regression model
model which
which has
has
the form:
the form:

Y. b0 + b1.X1 + b2.X2 + b3.X3 + + b .X

m m
-(3)

the bi
where the bi are the coefficients
coeffioients to be
be estimated
estimated by
by regression and the Xi are different
different
predictor variables. This can be written in
in short form as:
form as:

m
Y == bb ++ ¡t b..X.
O
0
b .• X.
1 1
-(4)

The various predictor variables

variables can
Oan be
be of
of the
the following
following different
different sorts:
sorts:

(i) may be
Each Xi may be aa separate
separate independent
independent variable.
variable. For
Fbr example,
example, inin a particular
particular
applioation X1
application X1 may
may be
be height
height and X2 diameter.
and X2 diameter. The independent variables may may
less correlated
be more or less correlated among
among themselves,
themselves, provided
provided the
the correlation
correlation is
is not
not
perfect
perfect (i.e. RR == 1). In the latter case
oase one of
of the variables involved
involved must
must
be ommitted.
omitted.

(ii) Some variables may

may be
be combinations
combinations and/or
and/or transformations
transformations ofof other
other variables.
variables.
Fbr amample,
For example, X3
X3 might
might be
be log(X2)
log(X2) and X4 might
and X4 might be X1.~. However, additive
be X1.X2. additive
(e.g. X3
combinations (e.g. X1 ++ X2
X3 = X1 X2 or
or X/ ~) are
X, - X2) are not
not permitted;
permitted; they result
in perfect correlation among
among variiples.
vari \~les.

(iii) Some variables may

may be
be conditional
conditional variables
variables having
having values
values of
of only
only zero
zero or
or one.
one.
Fbr example, in a particular
For partioular regression, X/
X1 might be zero for data from one
souroe and one for
seed source for data from
from a different source. This is is discussed
further
further in the section
section on
on comparison
comparison of
of regressions
regressions and covarianoe analysis.
and covariance analysis.

In most
most applications in forest
forest yield prediction
prediotion only aa few basio independent variables
basic independent variables
are involved, only 22 or 3,
involved, often only 3, but with perhaps 2 or 3 other variables constructed as
in order to provide
transformations in provide particular
partioular curve
ourve shapes.
shapes. Fbr example, the site index
model:
H = bb0 +
log H· b1/Á +
+ b,lA .S +
+ bb2.5 + b .S/A
O 2 b3.SA
3
involves three basic variables: height (II),
(H), age
age (A) and site
(A) and index (S).
index (S). Theee are trans-
These
oombined to give
formed and combined give the
the regression
regression model:
model:

b ++ b1.X1
Y = b0
Y= b ·X ++ b2.X2
b .X ++ b .X
O 1 1 2 2 3 3
b3.X3
where YY is
where is log(H),
log(H), X1
X is
is 1/A, X2 is S and
X is ~ is
and X3 is S/A.
S/A.
1 2
 - 141
141 -

2.5 Calculations for Estimating

liBtimating the Parameters
Parameters of
of aa Multiple
Multiple Regression
Regression Model
Model

of regression with one and two predictor variables,

As in the previous cases of variables, in
in mul
mul
is prim~rily
multiple regression one is concerned to
primvily concerned to calculate
calculate the
the coefficient
coefficient values,
values, the
coefficient of
of determination
detemination (R )t the
(R ), the residual
residual standard
standard deviation,
deviation, the
the variance
variance ratio
ratio of
of
the residuals to the regression
regression mean square,
square, the standard errors of the
errors of the coefficients and
the statistics necessary for constructing confidence intervals for predicted values.
values.

'fuese are usually

These parameters are usually estimated
estimated using
using aa computer
oomputer programme.
programme. Manual calcula-
oalcula,-
very tedious
tions are very tedious and it is
and it is very
very easy
easy for
for errors
errors to
to slip
slip in.
in. However, the manual
calculation procedures are given here both for the benefit of those who who wish
wish to
to use them
them
they stand
as they stand and
and as
as an
an algorithm
algorithm that
that will provide
provide the
the basis
basis for
for a computer programme if
it is necessary
necessary toto write
write one
one from
from scratch.
soratch.

It is best to consider
consider the
the calculations
calculations as
as following
following aa number
number of
of stages:
stages:

Stage 11
Stage Define the model to be fitted
fitted and tabulate the
and tabulate the transformed
transformed variable
variable values.
values.

'fue model is:

The general model is :
m
Yj~= b
Y. + Eb. .X
bO+fbi'\j + e.
+ e.
0 i3 J
3

where Yj
Yj are the dependent variable
variable observations
obeervations (j(j =~ 11 to n); Xij
to n); Xij are
are the
the predictor variable
observations with
with mm variables
variables per
per observation (i =~ 1 to m) and nn observations.
observation (i The bi
obeervations. 'fue b i are
the coefficients to be estimated, the ej are the residuals between the observed Y8 Ys and the
Ys which will be
Ya be estimated
estimated from
from the
the linear
linear model.
model.

In the calculation
calculation example
example we
we wish
wish to fit the
to fit the model:
model:

Y =~
Y b + b ,X + b ,X + b ' X
b0
0 1 1
b1.X1 b2X2
2 2 b3.x3
3 3

given the
given the data:
data:

Y Xl X X3
X1 2
X2 x3

11 4 9 4
3 33 9 9
77 33 6 6
9 55 8 3
14 4 7 11
18 6 4 55
19 55 3 77
21
21 77 11 99
24 6 33 4
26
26 77 2 55

where is 10
Where n is 10 (number
(number of
of observations)
observations) and
and mm is
is 3 (nutber
(nUlllber of predictor
prediotor variables).
 - 142-
14 2

Stage 22 Fbrm
Form the totals
totals and cross-products of the
crossproducts of the data
data defined
defined algebraically
algebraically as:
as:

(i) Totals
Totals

n
T = EX.
T. [X.. for ii = 1 to m
m
1
1 13
j l.J

T = [Y
Y = EYij
Ty

(ii) Cross-products
Crossproducts
n
PX = [\joXkj
EX .X for
for ii and k= 11 to
and k= to mm
ik .13 kj
J
n
H.oX
= EY .X . . for ii== 1 to m
for m
PY.
1
l. j jJ ij
l.J

Fbr
For the example we have
have the
the following
following totals
totals and products:
and products:

k y 1
1 22 .2
3
Tk 142 50 52 53

P\k k 1 2 33
PXik i
11 270 227 267
22 350 256
33 339

k 11 2 33

811 522 752

PYk

The total sum of

of squares
squares of
of the
the Ys
Ys must
must also
also be
be calculated:
calculated:

r.l
EY2 == 22 714

aye
Stage 33 Correct the sums of
of products
products for
for the
the means.
meanso PX , PY.
From the values PX. FY. and
and
l. k
ik l.
y2 formed:
Y2 the following corrected values are formed:

(gikr.
QX PXik - TioT,jn
= PX Ti.Tk/n
ik ik

QY = PY. T .T/
.T /n
1 = PYi - TioT/n

rl
EY2
El2 T;Al.
= ty2 _ Tin
 143
- 143-

The calculated values for

for the
the example
example are:
are:

QX i~k~ ______~11________~22________~3_
3
ik
1 20 33
-33 2
2 79.6 19.6
3
3 58.1

k 11 2 3

QYk
101
101 216.4
-216.4 0.6
-0.6

2
r.y
ZY2 =
= 697.6

Stage 4 Solve for the coefficient

stage coefficient values and at
values and at the same
same time
time invert
invert the
the cross-
cross-
matrix using
product matrix using Jordan
Jordan elimination.
elimination.

QX arranged in
and QY are arranged in aa table
table (which
(which we
we will
will call
call C)
C) in the following
in the following way:
way:

11 2
2 3 •0 • •
3 k •0 .•
4> 0 m 1
2
2 2
2

• QXX
Q
•
• 1k
ik QY
QY
i
•
i
• •
• •o
• •o
m m

QX l' QX
At the same time, the values QX91, QX , etc.
etc. are filled
filled in as having the
31 32'
32
For t~e
31 32
QX12' QXn' eto.
same values as QX12, etc. Fbr example we
te example
139
we have
have therefore:
therefore:

C .. j 11 2
2 33 4
Cij
~J i
11 20 33
-33 2
2 101
101

22 33
-33 79.6
79.6 19.6
-19.6 216.4
-216.4
33 2
2 19.6
-19.6 58.1 0.6
-0.6

Having drawn up the table or matrix CC we are

are now
now ready
ready to proceed with the steps of
the Jordan elimination
elimination process.
process.
 --144
144 --

Jordan elimination
Jordan eliminat ion

k'th column
k'th oolumn

oC... c c
l.J C.cikik ij
cij

ckj c
o c row
k'th row
ckj kk kj
ckj

0..
c .. c
ik
cik
c ..
l.J
ij l.J
cij

Perform mm reductions
reduotione of
of the
the table.
table. On the klthk'th reduction replace each
each element
element cij
Cij
of the
of the table
table by
by aa new
new value
value cii*
cit according
according to
to the
the following
following sequence:
sequence:

let c * = 1/0 (0 is called the 'pivot.)

kk kk kk

(ii) let each element of the k'th column,

column, excluding
excluding the
the pivot,
pivot, be
be replaced
replaced by:
by:

C. -*" _c. .0 *
ik kk

(iii) let
let all
all the elements c0... , ~
the elements excluding the
but excluding the k'th
k'th row
row or
or the
the k'th
k'th column,
column, be
be
ij ---
replaced by:
replaced by: l.J

c *' == c
c..*..c + cC *.o
*.0
ij ij
ij ik kj

(iv) let
let the elements
elements of the k'th row, excluding
excluding the
the pivot,
pivot, be
be replaced
replaced by:
by:

* = c .0 *
kj kj kk

After the last reduction then the elements c to c mm comprise

oomprise the
the 'inverse
'inverse matrix'
matrix'
ll
c11 mm
of the
the regression
regression problem.
problem. These elements,
elemento, as we shall see,
see, are important
important in calculating
the variances and covariances of the coefficients
ooeffioients and henoe oonfidenoe limits
hence the confidence limits of the
estimates. The elements
regression estimates. elements in
in the
the m+l'th column are
m+rth column are the
the regression
regression coefficients
coefficients
b to bm. For the numerical example
emamole the
the three
three reduotione
reductions are
are shown
shown below:
below:
l to bm.
b1

REDUCTION 1

0.05000000 -1.65000000
-1.65000000 0.10000000 5.05000000
5.05000000

1.65000000
1.65000000 25.15000000
25.15000000 -16.30000000
-16.30000000 -~9.75000000
-49.75000000

-0. 10000000
-0.10000000 -16.30000000
-16.30000000 57.90000000 -10.70000000
-10.70000000
 -- 145
145 -
-

REDUCTION 22

0.15825049
0.15825049 0.06560636 -0 . 9693836J
-0.96938369 1.78608349

0.06560636
0.06560636 0.03976143
0.03976143 -0.64811133
-0.64811133 -1.97813121
-1.97813121

0.96938369
0.96938369 0.64811133
0.64811133 47 . 33578528
47.33578528 -42.94353876
-42.94353876

REDUCTION 33

0.17810238
0.17810238 0.07887895
0.07887895 0.02047881
0.02047887 0.90664807

0.07887895
0.07887895 0.04863523
0.04863523 0.01369178
0.01369178 -2.56610485

0.02047887
0.02047887 0.01369178
0.01369178 0.02112566
0.02112566 -0.90721086
-0.90721086

Although Jordan elimination sounds

Jordan elimination sounds fairly
fairly complex
complex when
when explained
explained in in full,
full, and is
and is
certainly very tedious to carry out manually, it can be programmed
progrlU!llled very easily for
for aa com-
com-
puter. Below is
is a a section of oode in BASIC which inverts and solves the regression
regression problem
matrix C.
in the matrix C. The variable
variable letters
letters used
used oorrespond
correspond exactly
ex'$ctly to
to the
the explanation
explanation above.
above.

Code in BASIC for

for Jordan
Jordan Eliminations
Eliminations

100 FOR IC=

K= 11 TOM
TO M
110 LET C(K,K) == 1/C(K,K)
110 LET C(KK) l/C(K,K)
120
120 FOR
FOR II== 11 to
to MM
130 IF I I ~ K
= K THEN 190
190
140 LET
140 C(I,K) == -C(I,K)*C(K,K)
LET C(I,K) -C(I,K)*C(K,K)
150 FOR J J = 1 TO M+l
TO Mil
J=K THEN
160 IF J=K 180
THEN 180
170 LET
LET C(I,J).c(I,J)+ C(I,K)*C(K,J)
C(I,J)=C(I,J)+C(I,K)*C(K,J)
180 NEXT JJ
190 NEXT II
200 FOR
200 FOR J=J = 11 to M+l
to Mil
IF J= K
210 IF J=IC THEN 230
220 LET C(K,J)
C(C,J) == C(K,J)*C(K,K)
C(K,J)*C(KK)
NEXT J
230 NEXT
240 NEXT
NEXT K K

The
The coefficients
coefficients bb to b have now been calculated
oaloulated and are stored in
in 0 m+l to
to
1
the n~ericaf
o1,1114,1
c
m,m+
1.. Thus, for
for the have;
nurlericaT example we have: '

bb1 == 0.9066
1
b =-2.566
=-2.566
2
b2
0.9072
b =-0.9072
3
b3

rounding
rounding to 4 significant figures.
significant figures. intercept 1)0
The intercept b isis calculated from:
calculated from:
O
m
b130
O = =(Ty
(T- -Ibib.T)/n
Y ii.Ti)/n
 - 146 -

For the numerical

For the nlDllerical exaxnple
example wewe have:
have:
(142 -- (50
bb0 == (142
O
(50 x 0.9066 + 52
0.9066 + 52 xx (-2.566) 53 xx (-0.9072))/10
(-2.566) + 53 (-0.9072)00
== 27.82
27.82 (to
(to 44 sig. figures)
sig. figures)

The elements 0 1 to
The elements to c of the final
final table
table after the
the last
last Jordan
Jordan reduction
reduction we
we will
will
. c11
1 IJIIlI
Mm
to as
refer to as the
the inverse
1nverse matrix
matr4X c. c.

Stage
Stage 5 Caloulate
Caloulate total, regression and residual SIDIl
sum of
of squares and hence
squares and hence coefficient
coefficient
of
of determination (R2), variance
determination (R2)9 variance ratio (F) and
ratio (F) and residual
residual standard
standard deviation.
deviation.

The total
The total sum
sum of
of squares
squares (TSS)
(TSS) is gy2,
ri, calculated at stage
as calculated stage 3.
3.

The regression sum

The regression sum of
of squares (RSS) is
squares (RSS) is given
given by:
m
rn

RSS == !b.
lb .•.QY.
QY.
1D. 1
3.

The residual sum

The residual sum of
of squares
squares (DSS)
(DSS) is
is obtained
obtained as
as the
the difference
difference between
between these
these two:
two:
DSS == TSS
TSS -- RSS
RSS

The
The degrees of freedom
degrees of freedom for
for the
the total
total sum
sum of
of squares is n-1.
squares is n-1. For the
For regression it
the regression it
is m. it is
For the residuals it n~1.
is n-m-1.

The mean square

square of
of the
the regression (mIS) is:
regression (RMS) is:

mIS = RSS/m
RNS RSS/m

square of
The mean square of the
the residuals
residuals (DMS)
(DMS) is:
is:

DMS reS/(n-m-1)
DNB == DSS/(n-m-1)

variance ratio
The variance ratio is:
is:

F = mIS/moE
RTC/DMS with n-m-1
n-m,1 and m degrees
m of freedom.
degrees of freedom.

This F
This F value can be
value can be used
used to
to test the statistical
test the statistical significance
signifioance of
of the
the regression.
regression.

For the numerical

Fbr numerioal example
example we
we have
have therefore:
therefore:

TSS == 697.6
TSS Ey2 in stage
(see'i.i
(see 3)
stage 3)
RSS
RSS = 0.9066
0.9066 xx 101
101 ++ (-2.566)
(-2.566) xx (-216.4)
(-216.4) .4 (-0.9072) xx (-0.6)
+ (-0.9072)
. 647.4
= 647.4
res
DSS = 697.6
697.6 -647.4 DNS = 50.2/(10-3-/)
=
= 50.2
50.2 E= 8.367
8.367
RMS = 647.4/3 F
F == 215.8/8.367

= 215.8
215.8 == 25.79
25.79 with 6 and 33 d.f.
d.f.
 - 147
147 -

from tables
The F values from tables with
with these
these d.f. and for
for P=0.1% is 23.70. Hence we may say
P-oO.1% is
that there
there is
is less
less than
than 11 chance
chanoe in
in 11 000
000 of
of the
the relation between the dependent and predictor
prediotor
being due
variables being due purely
purely to
to chance
chanoe factors
factors outside
outside the
the regression
regression model.
model.

coefficient of
The coefficient of determination
determination R2
R2 is
is given
given by:
by:

R2 = RSS/TSS

The multiple correlation

oorrelation coefficient
coefficient RR ==A/R
.,fR2.
r2

example we
For the example we have:
have:

2
R2 =
R 647.4/697.6
647.4/691. 6
= 0.9280
= 0.9280
R = 0.9633
R = 0.9633

The residual standard

standard deviation
deviation ss is
is the
the square
square root
root of
of the
the residual
residual mean
mean square:
square:

s
s = .,fmlS
which for
which for the
the example
example is:
is:

s = 2.893
= 2.893

Stage 6 errors and t-statistics

Calculate standard errors for the
tstatistics for the regression
regression coefficients.
coeffioients.

The standard errors of the coefficients b1

b to bm
b are
aro given by:
by:
1 m
s(b.)
s(b) = s • ..,fc ..
1 11

The t-values of the \ aregiven

Thetvaluesoftheb.are given by:
by:

t(b.)
t(bi) = b./S(b.)
bi/s(bi)
1 1 1

These
These t-valUBs oan be
tvalues can be tested
tested for
for significance
significance with
with n-m-1 d.f.
nm-1 d.f. For the numerical
example we
we have:
have:

Standard
Coefficient t Signifioance
Significance
Error

b 0.9066
0.9066 1.221
1.221 0.742
1
b1
b
2
b2
2.566
-2.566 0.6380 40022
-4.022 **
-M-31-

b
3
b3
0.9072
-0.9072 0.4205 2.157
-2.157

"
** indicates
not
indicates signifioanoe
signifioance at
signifioant.
not significant. This
This
at the
does
does not
1%level
the 1%
!!2! mean
level (t-3.71
that
that ~
(t=3.71with
both can
with66d.f.).
be
d.f.). Coeffioients
removed
removed from
from
Coefficients b1
the
the
b1 and
regression.
and b3
regression. One
b3 are
One
are
or
or
the
the other (preferably the
other (preferably the least
least significant,
significant, here b1) could
here b1) could bebe removed
removed and
and the
the results
results recal-
recal-
culated by the procedure explained later.
culated by the procedure explained later. The
The tvalues
t-valUBB of
of the
the remaining
remaining coefficients
coefficients would
would
be
be found
found to
to have
have inoreased
increased and both would
and both orobably be
would probably be significant
significant in in the
the new
new regression.
regression.
 -- 148
148 --

Stage 77 Standard errors of

of predictions
predictions from
from the
the model
model are
are derived
derived from
from the
the formula:
formula:
mm
s=
S
y
= ss,/-(1/k
fi.l/k ++ l/n
1/n + E
. .
x)
r E'i c .. x.x.)
1J 1 J
1i J
j

,
where xi
where - (X;. -- Xi), Xi is a given value of predictor variable i,
xi= i, X is
is the
the mean value
value for
for
the regression model data and kk is the number of repeated estimates
estimates of Y to
to bebe made.
made. Sy
S. is
the standard error of the mean estimate of Y. single prediction,
Y. For a single prediction, kk == 1;
1; for the
population standard
population standard error,
error, l/k O.
1/k=c 0.

For the example, suppose we wish to calculate

caloulate the standard error for
for aa single estimate
estimate
of Y at Xl C 8, X2 = 4 and
of Y at X1= 8, and X3 = 6.
X3 C 6.
X2=

~:
the xi:
First calculate the

x =
= 8 -- 5.0
11
5.0 .= 3
xX2
2 ==4-
4 - 5.2,=
5.2 = -1.2
-1.2
x .=66 -- 5.3
5.3 = 0.7C
3 3
Then caloulate stmt
calculate the sum ~ I: c ...x.x.
yc. x.x.
1J
ij 1 J

3(3
3(3 x 0.1781
0.1781 ++ (-1.2)
(-1.2) xx 0.07888
0.07888 + + 0.7
0.7 xx 0.02048)
0.02048)
+ (-1.2) xx (( 33 x 0.07888
(-1.2) 0.07888 ++ (4.2)
(-1.2) xx 0.04864
0.04864 + + 0.7
0.7 xx0.01369)
0.01369)
+ 0.7(3 xx 0.02048
0.7(3 0.02048 ++ (-1.2) xx 0.01369
0.01369 + + 0.7
0.7 xx 0.02113)
0.02113)

=
= 1.178
1.178
ThenS S-= 2.893-/
Then (1 ++ 1/10
2.893-/(1 1/10+ 1.178)
y
= 4.366
standard error
Thus, the standard error for
for aa single
single estimate
estimate of
of YY from
from this
this model at X1
Xl = 8, C

X
X22
=
= 4
4, X3
X3 == 6 is + 4.366.
is Z 4.366.

formula will
This formula will also
also give
give the
the standard
standard error
error of
of the
the intercept
interoept 1)0,
b ' if required,
O
using l/k
using 1/k=
= 0 and
and xi
Xi == Xi'

completes the
This completes the main
main calculations
calculations for
for multiple
multiple regression.
regression. Two other types of
calculation are commonly
commonly performed.
performed. These are the computation of the correlation matrix
between variables and the shortcut calculation for removal of variables from a regression.
regression.

The correlation matrix This is aa table showing

showing the
the correlation
oorrelation between any pair
of variables. It is constructed
constructed by
by arranging
arranging aa matrix
matrix VV as
as follows:
follows:
 -- 149
149--

1
1 2 33 4 •......m+
4 • • • • • +11
m

2
1
1 yY QY
QY

2
33

• QY
QY Qlt
QX

•
•
•
•
m+ 1

and then noting

noting that
that the
the correlation
oorrelation between
between variable
variable ii and variable jj is:
and variable is:

r = Vi/ 11.V jj
)

This can be done at any

any time after stage
stage 33 in the regression
regression calculation.
calculation.

11 to VVmm,, it
Since the matrix V
V is symmetrical about the diagonal V
V11
mm it isis not
not necessary
to calculate the lower half, as, for
for example,
example, r23 ~= r , and so on.
so on.
32
r32,

Removing a variable from the_regression

variable_from the regression When a variable is is found
found to
to be
be non-signifi-
nonsignifi-
cant it may be desirable to recalculate the regression statistics
statistios with that variable omitted.

To do
'lb do this the values of the inverse matrix c and thvJ coefficients are
th" coefficients are adjusted
adjusted
according to the
according the following
following formula
fonnula where
where uu denotes
denotes the
the subscript
subscript of
of the
the unwanted
unwanted variable:
variable:

b*
b*=
i
= b iib -c
i.bu/c
iuu
.b,lo
uu

C. .*
c, * =... Cc .. - CC . •oC u/C
0.,10
1J
lj 1J 1U J uu
UU

For the numerioal Xl.

numerical example suppose we wish to omit the effect of variable X1. The
inverse matrix
original inverse matrix and coefficients
coefficients were
were (to
(to 6 significant
signifioant figures):
figures):

1
1 2 33 b

11 0.178102 0.0788790 0.0204789 0.906648

2 0.0788790 0.0486352 0.0136918 -2.56610
33 0.0204789 0.0136918 0.0211257 -0.907211

Eliminating variable
Eliminating variable 11 we
we have:
have:

-2.56610 - 0.0788790
bb** == -2.56610 0.0788790 xx 0.906648
0.906648 / 0.178102
0.178102
2 .~ -2.96764
2
-2.96764
b3* -0.907211 - 0.0204789
b3*== -0.907211 0.0204789 x
x 0.906648
0.906648 / 0.178102
0.178102
= -1.01146
= -1.01146
 -150
- 150 _
-

inverse matrix
The revised inverse matrix is:
is:

22 33
22 0.0131001
0.0137007 0.00462197
0.00462197
33 0.00462197
0.00462197 0.0181110
000187710

The various statistios from stage 55 on can then be recalculated

various other statistics recalculated for
for the
the new
new
regression. A etc. variable may be successively
A second, third, etc. sucoessively eliminated
eliminated in this
this way.
way.

This completes the

the summary
summary of
of multiple
multiple regression
regression calculations.
calculations. This
Thie work
work is usually
performed by
performed by computer
computer but
but can
can be
be done
done by hand for
by hand for small
small problems.
problems. Great
Great oare
care should be taken
lose significant
not to lose signifioant digits
digits by
by rounding
rounding to
to a fixed
fixed number
number of
of decimal places during the
matrix inversion
matrix inversion process.
prooess.

2. 6
2.6 Residual Analysis

Residual analysis is aa tool that

that should be associated with the intelligent
intelligent use
use of
multiple regression.
multiple regression. Its purpose
purpose is
is threefold:
threefold:

(i) Tb determine whether

To whether the
the residuals from
from the
the regression
regression conform
oonform to the
of the mciel,
assumptions of model, i.e.
i.e. are uncorrelated,
uncorrelated, normally
normally distributed
of uniform
and of lmiform variance.
variance.

(ii) Tb assess 'lack

Po 'lack of
of fit'
fit' in
in the model from
from systematic
systematic trends in
in the residuals.
residuals.

Tb examine visually
Po visually the
the shape
shape of relationships
relationships between
between residuals and possible
prediotor variables not yet
predictor yet introduced
introduced into
into the
the regression
regression model.
model.

(like most other aspects of

Residual analysis (like of regression
regression calculations!)
calculationsl) is
is very
very
by hand. It should however be part of every good computer programme
tedious to perform by
for multiple regression analysis.

between the
The residual e is defined as the difference between the actual value of
of the dependent
variable Y va~ue predicted
Y and the value predicted from
from the
the regression
regression model Y. That
model Y. That is:
is:

e
e
i
= Y,
Yi...
Y.~
Y.

the ei
When the ei are
are plotted
plotted against
against the
the Yi
Yi then
then several
several possible
possible kinds
kinds of
of graphs
graphs may
may be
be
obtained:

( i)
e.

•...
• ••
.. .. •.. . . •. .
o -------------------
• .•.• •
•
 - 151
151 -

This is the ideal situation with the variation in the e i uniform

Ihisistheidealsituationwiththevariationinthee.uniform with
with respectto
respect to Y.
Y.
The model appears to
to have
have no
no undesirable
undesirable characteristics.
oharacteristics.
( ii)

...
. ... .... . . . .

.' .' .. .. :
. ' . '
"
. " ". . .. . '
a. Z. -- - --
' .

oo ---- ~~'.:.- . . .
· . '. . ~---- ~'.'~'.:. . .'.,

· '.' :'.":':-
. . .· . .
. ...
. ... '
..
. . "

This indicates systematic behaviour of the e. e. with respect to Y

Y and shows lack of
fit.
fit. In other words,
words, there is aa better model than the current one,
one, using the same basio
basic
prediotor
predictor variables but with different or additional transformations that fitted
that could be fitted
and would remove the
the systematic
systematic trend in the
trand in the ei.
ei'

( iii)
(

. :

"-
~~:.;:~ ~ ."'"7•.-:-.: __
. .

o --- -
0 k.
-< .... .;.;•..:..• ...

. . ,
'0 • .• -.:. •
...

.
y

the variances of
Here the of the
the ei
ei are
are not
not uniform
uniform with
with respect
respect to Y. In this case, better
to Y.
can be
estimates of the coeffioients can be obtained
obtained either
either by
by using
using aa transformation
transformation of
of the
the YY
the use
variable or through the use of
of weighted
weighted regression
regression (see
(see next
next section
section 2.7).
2.7).

When the ei
ei are plotted
plotted against
against XX variables
variables not
not yet
yet included
inoluded in
in the
the model
model then
then one
one
may have either
may either a random
random scatter
scatter or
or some
some systematic
systematic pattern
pattern similar
similar to
to (ii)
(U) above.
above. In the
latter case the X X variable could be included
included in
in the
the regression.
regreesion. The shape of the general
pattern may
trend in the pattern may not be linear, but following one
be linear, but following one of
of the
the trends
trends shown
shown in
in figure
figure
A. 2 .1. In this
A.2.1. this case the appropriate transformation
transformation ofof the
the XX variable
variable can
can be
be used.
used.

example, suppose
For example, suppose we have
have the
the model:
model:

Y
b0 + b1X1 + b2X2

the residuals
where the residuals plotted against an additional variable X3 give the following
following pattern:
pattern:
X3
 152
- 152 -

e.

.....
;::~ :~.~:.~.~
' d:
:'. . .
.: "."'-:" .
.." .

oo
__ __._ ·_·~.l:. ;; .' ____________ _
:..t ..
17=MS M.,

..;:,,,:
~ .
' .". "
",

X3
The
The dotted
dotted line
line (- - appears
( ) -) appears
to to follow
follow a slightcurve
a slight curvewhich
whichcould
could be
be allmded
allowed for
for
~ and
by adding X3 X~ to
and X2 to the
3
the regression
regression (c.f.
(c.f. figure
figure A.201(e))
A.2.1(e)) to
to give
give the
the model:
model:

bO +
Y= b0 b 1 X1 +
+ b1X1 b l2 +
+ b2X2 bl +
+ b3X3 b4~
3 + b4

this second
After fitting this second model the trend of the residuals from the new model against
against
similar to
X3 would appear similar to the
the first
first residual pattern
pattern shown
shown in
in (i)
(i) above.
above.

2.7 Weighted Regression

Weighted regression is
is used when the residuals do not have uniform variance with
respect to the YY values. This situation commonly
oommonly arises when complex transformations
transformations of
of
Y variable are used
the Y to obtain
used to obtain particular
particular curve
curve shapes.
shapes. In yield prediction it is also
commonly found
found with volume data where the variance tends
tends to be proportional
proportional to
to the
the volume.
volume.

Associated with each

each observation is a particular
particular weight wi.
Wi' The value of this can
be determined empirically
empirically or
or it
it may
may be derived from
from some
some theoretical
theoretical reasoning.
reasoning. For
Fbr the
the
fit the weights wi
best fit Wi should
should be
be proportional
proportional to
to 1/si
1/s? where si
s. is
is the residual standard
l. l.
deviation at
deviation at Yi.
Yi •

Empirical weights can

can be
be calculated as follows:
follows:

(1) Fit the unweighted regression model using

using the procedures
prooedures described in the
preceding section.
preceding seotion.

(2) Calculate the

the squared
squared residuals:
residuals:

(Y )
2
i
(Y - \ )
ee2 = (y
i
2
2

(3)

(i)2,
Then either:

or
either:

mean values
Tabulate mean values of "l.' (=
of w. ( = 1/e.) for classes of
l.

2
2
2
of Y.;
Y ;
i

(n)
(ii) Fit a regression relating e to Y (possibly a
Fitaregressionrelatinge.to
i
a simple regression:
Yii
2
ee2 = a + b.Y
will be
will be adequate
adequate for
for most
most cases).
cases). regression to predict
Use this regression predict aa
, 2
weight w.l. (=1/11l.?)for
weightw.(.1/gi) foreach
each Y..
y .•
l.
 - 153 -

of theoretical
In the case of theoretical weights
weights then
then one
one uses
uses whatever
whatever formulation is involved
tocalculatethew.for
to calculate the wi for each Y.•
each Y
i
For weighted linear regression with one predictor variable,
variable, the
the caloulations
calculations are
are as
as
follows:

(1)
(1) Compute weighted
weighted totals,
totals, sises
sums of
of squares
squares and
and products:
products:

A= lw.
A= Iw.
J.
~
B == Zw,oX.
~w . • x.
1
~ 1
~
C= 1.w .• x.2
~ ~

22
n= I,.,.1.•
~
y.
D = Ew..y.
1~
E =
E = ~w .• y.
Zw..y.
1~ 1
~
F=iw .• x .• y.
F= iw..x..y.
1
~ 1~ 1~

(2) Calculate weighted

Calculate weighted means
means and
and corrected
corrected products
products and
and squnres:
squares:

x = B/A yy== D/A

n/A
2
SS = C
SSxx = C - B2/A
B /A SP = BONA
. F - B.n/A
xy

(3) All other

other calculations
calculations then
then proceed
prooeed as
as from
from line
line 11 of form
11 of form A.2
A.2 (Statforn
(Statform 11
11
of Dawkins, 1968).
1968).

For multiple weighted regression the game

same general principles apply.
apply. Most advanced
for weighting.
regression programmes have a facility for

strong !a priori theoretical

Weighted regression should not be used unless there is utrong theoretical
justification for
for its_use,
its use; or alternatively, aa clear indioated
indicated trend
trend in the
the squared
squared residuals
residuals
when plotted
when plotted against
against YY that
that may
may provide
provide the
the basis
basis for
for empirical
empirical weighting.
weighting.

For well defined functions

FOr functions with high R2
R2, weighting
weighting is
is unlikely
unlikely to result in much
practical improvement in the degree of fit.
oractical fit. It is aa technique
teohnique that may
may be
be regarded
regarded as
as aa
refinement to analysis to be used once
onoe preliminary
preliminary analyses of a set of data have been
completed.

2.8 Comparison of Regression

ession Lines

It is frequently necessary to try and decide wiether or not two or more regression
lines
lines are
are so
so similar
similar that
that they can effectively be replaced by aa single line.
line. This
This case may
arise, for example, when it is desired to pool
pool data
data from
from different species
speCies with similar
growth habits or from different forests,
forests, regions,
regions , site
site types or provenances.
provenances.

The regressions to be compared may

may be simple regressions
regressions with a single
single predictor
multivariate regressions. Two basic
variable or multivariate basio techniques
teohniques exist
exist for
for the
the comparison:
comparison:

(i) Covariance analysis.

Covariap2Itánálm12. This is perhaps more suited to manual computation
although it
and simple regression, although it can
can equally
equally well
well be
be extended
extended to
to the
the
multivariate case.
multivariate case.
(ii) Significance tests on
Si- ificance tests on conditional
conditional variables.
variables. This isis quite suitable for
complex models and interactions, but
but leads
leads to Large
large multivariate
multivariate problems.
problems.
useful method
It is a useful method of
of alapting
adapting standard
standard computer
computer multiple
multiple regression
regression
packages
packages to regression comparison
comparison problems.
problems.
 -154-
- 154 -

anal:ysis is
Covarianoe analysis is a large
large subject.
subjeot. Here,
Hereo only the techniques
techniques neoessary for for 00
oom-
....
paring the slopes and
and intercepts
intercepts between
between simple
simple regressions
regressions are
are considered.
considered. The aalculations
calculations
are explained in relation to an example representing hypothetical
hypothetical datadata for for the
the volum...-Jleight
volumeheight
geographically distinct
line from two geographically distinct plantations
plantations (called
(called II and II). using
and II)1 using 10
10 plots
plots on
on each.
each.
The data is illustrated
illustrated in
in figure
figure A.2.2
A.2.2 and
and set
set out
out in
in table
table A.2.1.
A.2.1. The problem is is to
determine whether it
it is
is reasonable
reasonable to
to combine
combine the
the data
data to
to fit
fit aa common
oOlllll1On regression
regression line based
line based
20 plots.
on all 20 plots. The model to be fitted
fitted is
is the
the logarithmic
logarithmio volume
volume line line with
with the
the form:
form:

V == aa + b.
log V b. log H
H )

linear form
This is the linear form of the model with the parameters aa and b being estimated
estimated by
by
Dimple
simple regression. By taking antilogs to both sides
sides the
the equation
equation becomes:
becomes:
b
V == A.H (2)
-(2)

where A
where A == 10
a
10a• InIn this line can
this form points from the fitted line can be
be calculated
calculated for
for plotting
plotting on
on
graph paper.
normal graph paper.

Figure A.2.2
Figure A.2.2 Hypothetical volume-height data used
volumeheight data used for
for comparison
comparison
of regression lines
lines example.
(an
section 2.9.

3/ha)
(m3/ha)
Volume (m
250
( ;n
+ Plantation I
•o Plantation II
Plantation II
200
+

150
. r

. /
/

.
/
/
100 /
/.
,./
/

/'
, • ;I-
,
50 , /' ,.y
,,

o
5 10 15 20 25 30
Stand
stand height (m.)
(m.)

- - - - individual
individual regression
regression lines;
lines; --------- combined regression
 --155-
155 -

Table
Table A.2.1. Original transformed data
Original and transformed data from
from two
two
plantations
plantations used in the regression
in the regression
oomparison example.
comparison example.

10=.
Plot No.
No. V~lume
Volume Height log. V
V log.
log. H
H
m3/ha
m/ha. m. yy x

Plantation II
11 30.0 12.9 1.4771 1.1106
22 23.3 11.6 1.3674 1.0645
1.0645
33 212.6 24.9
24.9 2.3276 1.3962
4 15.1 10.8 1.1790 1.0334
5 50.4 15.8 1.7024 1.1987
1.1987
66 189.4 25.8 2.2774 1.4116
77 68.7 18.2
18.2 1.8370 1.2601
8 221.2 25.4 2.3448
2.3448 1.4048
9 123.9 22.1 2.0931 1.3444
10 60.8 16.7 1.7839 1.2227
1.2227

Plantation II
Plantation II
11
11 70.6 15.4 1.8488 1.1 875
1.1875
12 131.3 18.5
18.5 2.1183 1.2672
13 201.7 24.6 2.3047 1.3909
1.3909
14 156.6 22.9 2.1948 1.3598
1.3598
15 136.2 20.8 2.1342 1.3181
1.3181
16 87.0 16.7 1.9395 1.2227
17 95.0 16.5 1.9777 1.2175
1.2175
18 108.4
108.4 17.7 2.0350 1.2480
1.2480
19 93.6 18.0
18.0 1.9713 1.2553
1.2553
20 57.7 15.3 1.7612 1.1847
 156 --
-- 156

The sums,
The sums, suns
sums of
of squAres
squares and products of
and products of the
the data
data (table
(table A.2.1)
A.2.1) are
are calculated
calculated both
both
for the separate sets of
of data
data and
and for
for the
the two
two sets
sets combined
combined as
as follows:
follows:

Statistio
Statistic Source of Data

II II Combined (C)
Combined (C)
IY 18.38954 20.28547 38.67501
2
!Y
SY 35.37950
35.37950 41.39075 76.77025
IX
Ix 12.44696 12.65166 25.09862
sx2
Ix2 15.67703 16.05102 31.72805
:EXY
YxY 23.43337 25.76286 49.18623
n 10 10 20

2 2
SSy ~ yy2-(yy)2/n
SSy= IY -(iY) /n 1.56198 0.24072 1.98243
SSx == I:X
2 /
Ex 2-(£x)
.2//nn
--Ex) 2/ 0.18435 0.04457 0.23101
SPxy= Ixy-rx.:Ey/n
SPxy= sxyl-rx.yy/n 0.53398 0.09837 0.65176

coefficients:
coefficients:

b == SPxy/SSx
SPxy/SSx 2.89657 2.20716 2.82135
aa == (!y-b.:Ex)/n
(y-b.lx)/n -1.76640 -0.76388 -1.60685
regression sums
sums of
of squares:
squares:
RSS == b.SPxy 1.54671 0.21712 1.83884

basio calculations
From these basic oalculations the
the analysis
analysis of
of variance
variance can
can be
be performed.
performed. The
following additional quantities are
are calcInated:
calculated:

(i) Sums of squares between

between bb coefficients:
coefficients:
SSb = !SESS _ (ISPxy)2/ISSx
RSS - (!Spxy)2 /ISSx
For the example this
this is:
is:

SSb = (1.54671
(1.54671 ++ 0.21712)
0.21712) -- (0.53398
(0.53398 + 0.09837)2/
0.09837)2/
(0.18435
(0.18435 + 0.04457)
0.04457)
= 0.01708
0.01708

(ii)
ii) The sums of squares
squares between
between aa coefficient:
coefficient:

~SSY - !RSS
SSa = 1SSy zESS

=
= (1.56198
(1.56198 + 0.24072)
0.24072) - (1.54671
(1.54671 ++ 0.21712)
= 0.03887
.,_

(iii)
(iii) The residual sum
sum of
of squares:
squares:
res == SSyc
DSS SSYc - (SSa ++ SSb
- (SSa SSb ++ RSSc)
RSS )
C
where the G0 subscript
subscript -denotes
denotes quantities
quantities from- the -combined
froMthe combined -regression
regressioh
statistics on
statistics on the
the table
table above.
above.
 - 157 -

For deviation sum

Fbr the example, the deviation sum of
of squares
squares is:
is:
(0.03887 +
DSS = 1.98243 - (0.03887 + 0.01708
0.01708 + 1.83884)
1.83884)
= 0.08764
0.08764

(iv)
(iv) The degrees of freedom for
for the
the above
above quantities
quantities are
are as
as follows
follows where
where nT
n and
and
nIl are
are the
the number
number of points
points in
in the
the separate
separate regressions,
regressions, rr is
is the
the numter
numter of
of
nII
regressions being compared
compared and nnC is
is the total number of
of points:
points:

statistic i!.!:.
d.f.

SSyc
SSyc n - 1
nC 1

res
DSS nr+nn- 2r
2r
ni nII
SSb ))
rr - 11
SSa ))
RSS 1
1
C

of variance
The analysis of varia.nc e table
table for
for the
the comparison 0 f regressions
comparison of regressions may
may be
be set
set out
out as
as
follows:
Sum of Mean Variance
Variance
Source of
of Variation Squares .!hL.
d.f. Square Ratio

Combined regression
RSS 1.83884 1
1 1.83884 335.7xxx
335.7***
c
slopes
Between slopes SSb 0.01708
0.0'708 1
1 0.01708 3.1
3.1
intercepts
Between intercepts
SSa 0.03887
0.03887 11 0.03887 7.1*
7.1*
Residuals DSS 0.08764 16
16 0.005478
Total SSyc
SSyc 1.98243 19
19

asteriskB denote the significance

The asterisks signifioance level
level of
of the different variance ratios,
determined by looking up
by looking F values in
up F in statistical
statistical tables with 11 and 16 d.f. at the
tables with 5% (*),
the 5% (*),
0.1% (***) probability levels. In the above the regression is
1% (**) and 0.1% (***) probability levels. is very highly
(i.e. not due to chance).
significant (i.e. ohanoe). The differenoe
difference between slopes
slopes in the two
two separate
separate
regressions is not significant,
signifioant, i.e.
i.e. is
is most
most likely
likely due
due to
to chance
ohance sampling
sampling effects
effects in
in the
two sets of
of data. On the other hand, the intercepts
intercepts do differ significantly
significantly at the 5%
level, suggesting that the regressions are are in
in fact
fact distinot although they
they have
have the
the same
same
slope. Consequently, we may may conclude
oonclude for
for the
the example
example that
that the
the data
data from
from the
the two
two planta-
plant ....
cannot be
tions cannot be pooled
pooled to
to give
give aa combined
combined regression
regression for
for prediction purpo~es without
prediotion purposes without aa
loss of
consequent loss of accuracy.
acouraoy.

This
This oomparison
comparison method can
oan be extended
extended to
to any
any number of
of simple
simple regressions by
by noting
noting
caloulations, Wherever
that in the above calculations, wherever separate
separate quantities
quantities for
for the
the two
two regressions
regressions are
are
together, then any
added together,then of quantities
any number of quantities may
may be
be added.
added. Dawkins (see
(see bibliography)
bibliography)
~ ~
presents aa calculation 2E2 for comparing
forma for cOmparing up to 4 regressions.
up to
 - 158-
158

The use of conditional variables

variables for
for comparison
comparison of
of regression
regression lines.
lines. Conditional
Conditional
can only
variables are those which can only take values of zero or one, depending on whether
whether aa parti-
parti-
oular observation is to enter
cular observation enter into
into some
some part
pert of
of aa regression
regression model
model or
or not.
not. They canoan be used
oomparison of regression
for the comparison regression lines
lines and for fitting
and for fitting sets
sets of
of nested
nested data
data (see
(see section
seotion 2.10).
2.10).

Consider the
the case desoribed
described in the
the eXample
example above,
above, comparing
oomparing volume
volume height
height lines
lines for
for
two from plantations
two simple regressions from plantations II and II. For
and II. eaoh plantation
Fbr each plantation we
we have
have aa model:
model:

V == aa + b.log
log V b.log H
H

We can form a single model for both sets of data if we introduce an extra
extra variable
variable ZZ
is zero
which is zero for
for data from
from forest
forest II and one for data from forest
forest II.
II. This oombined
combined model
is:
is:
log V == a
log V (1 +
(1 + a .Z) +
+ b
b1(1(1 +
+ bb2.Z)log
.Z)log H
a11 a20Z)
2 1 2
For observations with ZZ = 00 (forest
(forest I)
I) then
then this
this amounts
amoWltS to:
to:

log
log VV== a + bl
b log
log H
H
al1 1
But when
But when ZZ== 11 (forest II) the coefficients are:

log
log V (a ++ a2)
V== (al
1
a ) ++ (b1
2
(b ++ b2)log
1
b )log H
2
H -(5)
To fit equation (3) by
by line4;r
linear regression
regression the
the brackets are
are removed
removed giving:
giving:

log V =
al
+ a1a2Z + b1 log H + b1b2Z.log H -(6)
which is equivalent
which equivalent to
to the
the regression
regression equation:
equation:
Y =
c0 + c1X1 + c2X2 + c3X3

Using a multiple
multiple regression
regression programme
programme to
to fit
fit the
the coefficients,
coefficients, the
the values
values obtained
obtained
were:
were:
1
e0 1.76640
-1.76640 12.3
-12.3
1.00179
1.00179 3.1
el
2.89657 25.2
02
c3 0.68884
-0.68884 2.7
-2.7

The tt values coeffioients with 16 d.f. indioate a similar but not identical
values for the ooefficients
oovarianoe analysis.
result to the covariance analysis. The ol01 coefficient, corresponding to the term Z inin
indioates a
equation (6), indicates a highly
highly significant additional term for
for the intercept
intercept for the
second set
set of
of data.
data. The 0303 coeffioient,
coefficient, corresponding to Z.log H, is also
HI is also significant
significant at
at
5% level, indicating that the slope of the two
the 5% two sets of data differs.
differs. In the covariance
covarianoe
slopes did .!!.2!
analysis it will be remembered, the slopes significantly although the inter-
not differ significantly
cepts did. This
This difference in the results of the two methods is is due to the differenoe
difference in
the statistical
the statistical models
models and,
and. the
the hypotheses being tested.
being tested. The covariance analysis asks the
question:
"Do either or both of the regressions differ significantly
signifioantly from
from a pooled
pooled regression?"
regression'?"
Cum,

- 159 -

this technique
whereas, this teohnique asks:
askB:

"Does
"Does the seoond
second regression interoept
intercept (01) slope (03)
(01) or slope (c3) differ from
from that of
of the
the
first
first regression 1'1
regression?'

It
It will be appreoiated the second
appreciated that the second type
type of
of test
test will
will be
be more
more sensitive
sensitive to
to
differences than the first,
first, but on the other hand, it is not
otherhand, not so
so directly
directly relevant
relevant if one
one
to know
wishes to know whether one
one can
can safely
safely pool
pool regressions.

The coefficient values for

for the two separate
the two separate lines
lines can
can be
be worked
worked out
out from
from the
the above
above
coefficients and will be found to be identical to the coefficients
coefficients for
for the
the separate
separate lines
lines
fitted in the
fittEd the oovariance
covariance analysis. They are:
are:

Forest I:
I:
Intercept
Intercept Co0 1.76640
-1.76640
Slope c 2.89657
022
Forest II
II

Intercept °0+c 1
00+01
0.76461
-0.76461
Slope c +o 2.20773
0203
2 3
In fact,
fact, the
the figures
figures appear to
to differ in the third decimal
decimal place
place from
from those
those calculated
calculated
is an effect
earlier, but this is effect of
of rounding
rounding error,
error, as in
in the computer programme all calcula.-
calcula-
tions, log. transformations were carried
tions9 including the log, carried out to 15 significant figures,
figures, whereas
whereas
manual calculation
with the manual calculation used
used in
in the
the covariance
covariance analysis,
analysis, only
only 55 to 8 significant figures
were used.
used.

The use of conditional variables can become

beoome quite oomplei
oomplex and is
is also quite flexible.
flexible.
For example, given
given any
any dependent variable
variable YY and
and any
any predictor
predictor variable
variable XX with aa conditional
variable Z9
Z, we can have a model
model with a common
common slope
slope and
and only
only aa different intercept
interoept for
for the
two sets of
0 f data:

Y + c1Z + o X
c0 2
1'lith three
With three sets
sets of
of data,
data, two
two conditional
conditional variables
variables are
are needed.
needed. They are:
They are:

Z1 data from
0 for data from set 1, 11 for sets 2 and 3.
set 19
Z1

Z2
0 " " " "" 1 and 29
2, 1 for
for set
set 3.
3.

And the model to test

test for
for different
different slopes
slopes and
and intercepts
interoepts is:
is:

Y= co + ciZi + c2Z2 + 03X + c4Z1X +o5Z2X

Further information
FUrther information on
on the
the ways
ways conditional
conditional variables
variables may
may be
be used
used is
is given
given in
in the
the
section.
next section.
 _160 __
_160

2.9 Nested Regression Using Conditional Variables

Nest231112grassign_UsinEC9nditionäl

Conditional variables whose value may

nay be either
either zero or one have already been
been aalluded
lluded
to for comparing regressions
to in the previous section. Apart from their use for regressions they oan
can be
be used
used
to fit
fit regression models to
to nested
nested data.
data.

when the measurements are grouped into

Nested data arises When into sampling units
units oror plots
plots
where the within-plot regression may
withinplot regression nay be different from
be different from the
the between-plot regress i on . The
betweenplot regression.
commonest situation in forest
forest yield studies is
is with permanent
permanent sample
sample plot
plot measurements
measurements
one has data
where one data grouped
grouped by
by plots.
plots. A problem will illustrate
A typical problem illustrate the
the point:
point:

Example Figure A.2.3

A.2.3 shows
shows hypothetical
hypothetical height-age
heidhtage data from
from 5 permanent
plots each
sample plots each of which has been remeasured 3 or 4 times. The
is to estimate the
objective is the mean
mean slope
slope of
of the
the height-age relation-
heightage relation-
ship, using
using aa qiialiratic
quadratic model
model of
of the form:
form:
2
H= b + b A + bl
O
H=b0 1
+b1A+ b2A

where b and b are assumed to be be the sane

Rame for
for all
all plots
plots but
but b0
b
1 2
b2b1 O
0
nay differ (expressing a site effect).
may differ (expressing a site effect).

If aa regression analysis is
is made
made of
of the
the data
data in
in figure
figure A.2.3
A.2.3 using
using equation
equation (1)
(1) as
as
the model and treating each observation as separate and independent,
independent, then the
the coefficient
coefficient
obtained are:
values obtained are:

bb0 7.807
7.807
O
b 0.6939
1
b1

b 0.008652
-0.008652
b2 2
, 2.
with a coefficient
coeffioient of determina~on (R2
of determination (R )) of
of 0.53
0.53 and an F value of 4.94. significance
The significance
level of the regression
regression is
is 0.2%.
0.2%.

It can be seen from figure A.2.3 that this regression,drawn as aa broken line,
line,
obviously underestimates the mean slope of the plots.
plots.

To fit the nested model then 4 artificial variables are introduced

To fit introduced Which
which can be
the following
to P 5' These have the
called pP22 to following values:
values:
P5.

P from plot
for data from
1 for plot 2,
2, for all other data
zero for
P2 2
il II 30
P 1
1
" "
11
" " 3, " "
11

"
11
"
11
"
P3 3
II It
P - 1 "" " " " 4, " " " " "
P41
4
P
5
5
- 11 "
"
" " " 5, "
11
" " " "
 - 161
- 161 --

Figure A.2.3
Figure A.2.3 Hypothetical height-age data
data to
to exemplify
exemplify
effect of fitting nested regression
effect regression

Height (m.)
Stand Height (m.)

25
25 1

20
20

5
15
15

10
10

• •
11111--40 Observa tions on
Observations on 1 PSP
dat a regression
Ungrouped data regression
5 for the
Nested regression for the
site
mean site

oO 5 10 15 20 25
25
Age

The model
model fitted
fitted is:
is:
2
H=a11 +aP
H=a +aP +aP
+aP +aP +aP
+aP +aP +bA+bA
+bA+ bA2 -(2)
22 33 44
33 44 55
55 1 22 1

where the a~ and

wheretheaiand b ii arethe
b .are theregression
regressioncoefficients.
coefficients. This is the quadratiC
This is quadratic model as in
equation
equation (1 ), but
(1), but with
with aa different
different interoept
intercept for every plot.
plot. The intercept values equivalent
intercept values equivalent
to
to b
b0 in equation
equation (1)
(1) are:
are:
O
E!2.!
Plot Intercept
Intercept
1
1 aa11
22 al
a1 + aa2
-2
3 al
a1 + a3
+ a3
4 a1
al + a4
a4
5 al
a1 +
+ a5
a5
 -- 162 --

When fitted to
to the
the data
data from
from figure
figure A.2.3
A.2.3 the
the coefficient
coefficient values
values obtained
obtained were:
were:

a 7.432
al1
a2
a2 -0.3915
15
-70:11339'2

a3
a3 -1.755
-1.755

a4
a4 -3.427
a5
a5 -6.833
b1
1:11 0.9192
b2
b2 -0.01157

with aa coefficient of determination of 0.98 andand an F value

value of 70.88 with 6 6 and 99 degrees ofof
freedom. This is significant at less
freedom. less than
than 0.0001%.
0.0001%. The
The slope
slope of
of this
this line,
line, given
given by
by 11
b1 and
and
b2' is drawn on figure
b2, is figure A.2.3
A.2.3 for
for the mean intercept
intercept values
values of
of the
the plate
plots as
as aa heavy
heavy solid
solid
line. ItIt can be seen that
that this
this gives
gives a much
much better
better repre6entation
representation of
of the
the mean
mean slope
slope of
of the
the
plots than the regression fitted
fitted to
to ungrouped
ungrouped data.
data.

This technique can be extended to give different

different intercepts
intercepts and
and different
different slopes
slopes for
for
each plot
plot or a common intercept
intercept and
and different
different slopes.
slopes. latter case
The latter case is
is most
most likely
likely to
to be
be
useful with models that result in
in asymptotic
asymptotic graphs
graphs such
such as
as the
the Schumacher
Schumacher equation
equation (see
(see
main text). For a single XX and YY variable and
and with
with 33 plots,
plots, for
for example,
example, we
we have:
have:

slope. different intercepts:

Common slope, intercepts:

Y = al + a2P2 + a3P3 + biX

Different slope
Different slope and
and intercepts:
intercepts:

Y =a +aP
22
1
+aP
33
+bX+bPX+bPX
22 33 1

Different slo
slope,
e common interce
intercept:
t:

Y
=a1 +bX+b2PX+b3P3X
1 2

In the above the ai and bi are intercept and

and slope coefficients
coefficients toto be
be fi ,ted by
fivted
regression; the XX and YY are normal
regression; normal variables
variables and
and the
the Pi
P j are
are variables
variables Which
which are
are 11 for
for
zero for
plot jj and zero for other
other plots.
plots.

These ideas can be extended to multivariate models, although the number of coeffi-
cients becomes fairly
fairly large.
large. Nested regressions of of this
this type
type can
can be
be calculated
caloulated by
by hand,
hand,
the number of variables may
as although the may be
be large,
large, the
the 0-1
0-1 nature
nature of
of most
most of the variables
means that many short-cuts are possible in the calculations.
calculations. If thisthis is
is done,
done, then the
Jordan elimination
elimination techniaue
technique for
for inverting
inverting the
the corrected
corrected cross-product
cross-product matrix, given in in
seotion 2.5, is not the fastest
section 2.5, fastest or easiest method;
method; Seber (1977
(1977 -- see
see bibliography)
bibliography) gives
gives
more efficient
details of more effioient methods
methods for
for those
those acquainted
acquainted with
with matrix
matrix algebra.
algebra. However, for for
computer programmes the relative inefficiency
ineffioienoy of conventional
oonventional caloulation techniques is is
unimportant since the processing times involved
involved are in any case very short.
short.
 -- 163
163 --

3. SOLUTION OF EQUATIONS
SOLUTION OF EQUATIONS

3.1
3.1 Solution of
Solution of the
the Quadratic
Quadratic Equation

The quadratio
quadratic equation isis widely used as as aa regression
regression model
model for
for data
data exhibiting
exhibiting aa
slight curvature
curvature in
in the
the X-Y
X-Y trend. fitted an equation
trend. Having fitted equation toto predict
predict Y,
Y, it
it may
may some-
times be necessary
necessary to
to solve
solve for
for XX given
given aa known
known value
value for
for Y.
Y. To
To do
do this,one uses the
thispone uses the
formula for
standard formula for the
the roots
roots of
of aa quadratic
quadratic equation.
equation. IfIf the
the regression
regression model
model is:
is:

Y = b0 + blX + b2X2

rewrite it
then rewrite as:
it as:
2
bX ++ cc = 0
aX + bX
aX2

where = b2,
where aa= b , bb== bb
2 1
and c = bO-Y ' and
= b0-Y, and obtain
obtain XX from:
from:

X== -b
X -b V b2
± Vb2 <lac
- 4ac
2a

whether aa +
There are normally 2 solutions, depending on \mether + or aa -- sign
sign is
is taken
taken before
before
square root
the square root sign.
sign. ItIt will usually be obvious
obvious that
that only one
one of
of the
the two
two solutions
solutions calcu-
calcu,
lated in a particular
particular case
case isis possible.
possible. For example,
example, one might derive diameters of of+20
+20
and -15 solutions to
-15 as solutions to aa problem;
problem; only
only the
the positive
positive diameter
diameter has
has any
any meaning.
meaning.
2
When b2
b is
is less than 4ac,
less than 4ac, the
the quantity
quantity under
under the
the square
square root
root sign
sign is
is negative
negative and
and
solution to the equation.
there is no real solution equation. For most foreetry
forestry applications
applications this
this is
is likely
imply an error in
to imply in the coefficient
coefficient values or or aa YY value that isis too large or too small.
small.
Suppose, for example, that
that one has a height-age function
function that reaches a maximum at 42 42 mm
height.
height. If one tries to solve i
itt to see at what age the.
the stand will reach 50 m,
m, then this
this
arise;
condition will arise; there ie
is no solution.

3.2 Solution of
Graphical Solution of Equations
Equations

There are quite aa number

number of
of complex
complex models
models that
that cannot
cannot readily
readily be
be manipulated
manipulated by
by
algebra and which must
must be
be solved
solved either
either by
by aa graphical
graphioal or
or aa numerical
numerical method.
method. The
The graphical
graphical
solution is
method of solution is self-evident
self-evident and can best
and can best be
be illustrated
illustrated by
by an
an example.
example. It
It consists
simply of plotting
simply plotting the
the value
value of
of YY for
for an
an equation
equation ofof the
the type:
type:

f(X)
Y = f(X)

for selected values

for values of
of X;
X; J01n1ng
joining the points by a smooth ourve
curve and then estimating the
of XX for
value of for the
the desired
desired YY at
at which
which aa solution
solution is
is required.
req~red.

Suppes e, for
Suppose, for example,
exampla, that
that one
one has
has fitted
fitted the
the equation:
equation:

log MAl
MAI == -0.8892 A + 2.097
-0.8892 -- 0.03055 A log AA
2.097 log

mean annual
relating mean annual volume
volume increment
increment to
to age
age for
for aa plantation
plantation and it is
and it is necessary
necessary to
to solve
solve
it to determine the age
age when
when MAl
MAI first reaches 15
first reaches 15 m 3/ha/yr. For a graphical solution use
mYha/yr.
 - 164
164 -

equation to
the equation to calcula-te
caloulate MAl
MAI for
for aa series
series of
of ages
ages which
which it
it is
is hoped
hoped will
will bracket
bracket the
the
desired answer.
answer. Below are tabulated
tabulated aa series
series of
of MA's
MAls calculated
calculated for
for ages
ages 10 to 30:
10 to

Lge
~ ~
MAI

10 7.99
15
15 13.15
20 16.91
25 18.99
30 19.58

These are then plotted,

plotted, as shown by the +s
+s in the
the graph
graph below, and connected
below, and connected by
by aa
smooth curve.
curve. It
It is to read off the x valus
is then possible to value corresponding
oorresponding to
to the
the known
known yy
value
valus which in this case is, for an MAI m3/ha/yr, an age of
MAl of 25 m3/ha/yr, of 17.2 years.

(m 3/ha/yr)
MI (m3/ha/yr)
MAl
20

15

10
10

5 Age (yrs)
Age (yrs)
10
10 15 20 25 30

of graphical
The main disadvantages of graphical solution
solution methods
metl-.ods are:
are:

(i) The acouraoy

accuracy is restricted to perhaps
perhaps:!;
± t% of the range of
of the
the xx scale.
scale.

(ii) The method is slow and essentially

essentially manual.
manual. It cannot be used within a
oomputer oaloulator.
computer programme or be programmed into a calculator.
 165

3.3 Numerical Solution

Solution of
of Equations
Equations

There are aa number of numerical

numerical solution methods
methods for
for equations,
equations, but
but one
one of
of the
the
simplest
simplest and
and most
most reliable
reliable is
is the
the so-called 'Biseotion Method'.
socalled 'Bisection Method'. This proceeds through
the following stages:
stages:

(i)
(i) Define the function
funotion to be solved
solved as:

y ~= f(x)
Y f(x)

is a
where y is a known
known value, but x is the unknown
tmknown to be determined
determined by the method.
is a range of values within which x must be known
There is known to lie, from Xa
to lie, xa to
to xb'
xb,
suoh
such that:

(1) f(xa) is
f(xa) 1s less
less than f(~);
than f(xb);
(2) f(Xa) - yY has the
f(xa) the opposite
opposite si
sign f(Xb) - y.
gn to f(xb) y.

(ii) Calculate aa trial

Calculate trial valuexl
value Xi
- from:

X. = t(x
x.=¡--(x + xx ))
1
a. aa b

(iii) Yi for
Calculate the value yi for xi:
Xi:

y. = f(x.)

(iv)
(ir) If:
If: y. is greater than y, let
Yi ~ =
let xb ~ x.;
xi;
let xa =
yi is less than y, let
Yi xi;
= xi;
exactly equal to
yi is exactly
Yi to y,
y, then
then the
the solution
solution is
i6 xi;
XiI
this case is
is unlikely
unlikely to
to occur
occur in practice.
in practice.

(v) back and repeat

Go back steps (ii)
repeat steps (ii) to (iv)
(iv) n times, where n is determined by
accuracy to which one wishes to approximate the correct
the accuracy oorrect solut.
i on. Given
solution.
initial values Xa and xb then the accuracy
values of xa aocuracy of
of the
the solution
solution will
will be:
be:

accuracy = 2n(xax,b)

After
After the
the nn iterations
iterations have been completed,
oompleted, then
then xi
Xi is
is the
the desired solution to the
aocuraoy stipulated above. In practice, since the iterations are carried out at high speed
accuracy
by computer or programmable
by programmable calculator,
caloulator, it
it is
is usually
ususlly sufficient
liufficient to
to use
use a fixed value of
of n,
say 15 or 20 for a range of different problems.
problems. We have
have for
for example:
example:

No.
No. of Iterations Accuracy as %
% of Range

5 3%
8 0.3%
10 0.1%
0.1%
15 0.003%
20 0.0001%
30 10- 7%
10-7%
 166 -
-- 166-

forestry problems 15 iterations are sufficient

Fbr most forestry suffioient to give aa realistic
realistic degree
degree
of aocuracy.
accuracy.

example of
As an example of the
the bisection
bisection method,
method, suppose
suppose that
that we
we have,
have, as
as in
in the
the previous
previous
section, an
section, an equation
equation relating
relating age (A) and
age (A) and mean
mean annual
annual increment
inorement (MAI)
(MAl) of
of the
the form:
form:

log MAI -0.8892 - 0.03055

MAl == -0.8892 0.03055 A
A++ 2.097
2.097 log A
A

which we wish to solve

solve to determine the age at which
whidh MA!
MAI reaches m3/ha/yr. Taking xa as
reaches 15 m3/ha/yr.
1 year, xb as 30 years and y as 15 years, then applying stages (ii)
(ii) to (iv)
(iv) enumerated
enumerated above,
above,
solution goes
the solution goes as
as follows:
follows:

i x x.
X.
a
xa ~ 1
Yi
Yi

11 1.000 30.000 15.500

15.500 13.595
2 15.500 30.000 22.750 18.254
33 15.500 22.750 19.125 16.370
4 15.500 19.125 17.312 15.091
55 15.500 17.312 16.406 14.370
6 16.406 17.312 16.859 14.737
77 16.859 17.312
17 .312 17.085 14.916
8 17.085 17.312 17.199 15.004
9 17.085
17 .085 17.199 17.142
17 .142 14.960
10 17.142
17 .142 17.199 17.170
17 .170 14.982
11 17.170 17.199
17 .199 17.185 14.993
12 17.185
17 .185 17.199 17.192 14.999
13 17.192 17.199 17.195 15.001
14 17.192 17.195
17 .195 17.193
17 .193 15.000
15 17.192
17 .192 17.193
17 .193 17.193 14.999

The main disadvantages of the bisection

biseotion method is that
that compe.red
compared to
to some numerioal
numerical
solution methods
methods (notably Newton's
Newton's method),
method), the oonvergenoe
convergence with
with each
each iteration
iteration is
is quite
quite
slow; the method also fails when there are two (or
slow; (or any other even number)
number) solutions
solutions within
within
the initial range
range given, and of
given, and of course,
course, one
one . t be
Ast be able
able to
to stipulate
stipulate aa range
range for
for the
the solu-
solu
tion. For
Fbr most forestry
forestry work
work these
these disadvantages
disadvantages seldom
seldom become
become important.
important. If they do
appear to be critical,
oritioal, then the worker should refer to some textbook on numerical
numerical methods,
methods,
sunh Stark (1970) for more detailed
such as, for example, Stark detailed guidance.
guidanoe.

4.
4. FI'l'l'ING NONLINEAR
FITTING NONLINEAR MODELS
MODElS

A nonlinear model is any model which

A whioh cannot be transformed into a form whose
Whose
parameters can be estimated direotly by linear least
directly by least squares analysis, as desoribed
described in
seotion 2.
section

Fbr example, the

FOr the equation:
equation:
b
y ~= a.X
Y

can be transformed by taking logarithms of both sides to give the linear model:
model:

log
log YY= log A +
c log X
4. b log X
 - 167 -

so that
that log
log AA and
and bb can be directly
can be directly estimated
estinRted by
by linear
linear regression.
regression. the other
On the other hand:
hand:
c
Y = aa ++ b.Xc
Y= b.X

where a, bband c are

and c are coefficients
coefficients to be determined, cannot be
determined, car~ot be directly
directly transformed
transformed into
into such
aa linear form
form and
and hence
hence it
it is
is said
said to
to be
be aa nonlinear
nonlinear model
model or
or equation.
equation.

In this
this manual it
it is
is only possible
possible to
to deal
deal with
with fitting
fitting methods
methods for
for aa limited
limited range
range
of nonlinear functions in common use in growth and yield studies characterised by
by the
the
following features:
features:

There is only one predictor

predictor (X)
(X) and one
one dependent (Y) variable;
dependent (Y) variable;

(ii) There are three

There are three parameters
parameters to
to be
be estimated
estimated (which
(which we
we will
will call
call a,
a, bb and
and k)
k)
fitting process;
by the fitting process;

(iii) Provided that

that parameter
parameter k
k is
is assumed to be aa known value,
value, aa and
and bb can
can be
be
estirnated,using transformetions,by simple
estimatedlusing appropriate transformations,by simple linear
linear regression.
regression.

The types of equations

equations which fall
fall within these restrictions
restrictions include
include the
the following
following
widely used forms:
widely used forms:
k
Y = aa + b.X
Y= b.Xk

k
Y = a.
Y= exp(b.X )
a.exp(b.Xk)

Y a( 1 _ exp(-k.X))
Y = a(1 exp(k.X))b b

There are a number of other models besides these that fitted, but
tr~t also can be fitted, but these
are less commonly
commonly used
used in
in forestry
forestry work
work and hence are
and hence are not
not listed
listed here.
here.

The main problem

problem is
is the
the estimation
estimation of
of the
the parameter
parameter k.
k. Fbr aa known
Fbr known value
value of
of kk we
we
can derive linear
linear forms
forma for
for the
the three
three equations
equations as
as follows:
follows:

Y b.(J2<)
Y== aa + b.(Xk)
where Xk is the predictor
predictor variable.
variable.

log YY== loge b.(Xk )

log a ++ b.(Xk)
e
loge e
where again the
the predictor
predictor variable
variable is
is Xk
Xk and
and the
the dependent variable is
is log Y.
e
logeY.

log YY == log b.10g (1 - exp(-k.X))

log aa ++ b.loge(1 exp(k.X))
e
loge e e
where the
the predictor
predictor variable
variable is log (1 - exp(k.X))
is loge(1 exp(-k.X)) and the dependent
and the dependent
e
variable is logeY.
log Y.
e
linearized forms
These three linearized forms can
can all
all be
be fitted
fitted using
using simple
simple linear
linear regression
regression except
except
for
for the kk parameter. The value of k which gives the best fit
fit can
can be estimated
estimated graphically.

The essential principal

principal of
of the
the graphical
graphical approach
approach is
is to
to calculate
calculate the
the residual
residual sum
sum
squares
of sqvAres for the linear forms, using the conventional methods described in section
linear forms, using the conventional methods described section 2.1,
2.1,
for aa series
for series of
of trial
trial values
values of
of k.
k. These residual sums
sums of
of squares
squares are plotted
plotted graphically
graphically
 - 16
- 168-
8 -

trial values
against the trial values of
of kk and
and aa smooth
smooth curve
ourve is
is drawn
drawn through
through the
the points.
points. The value
value of
whioh a minimum
k at which minimtun sum
stun of
of squares
squares is
is observed
observed to
to occur
ooour provides
provides the
the best
best estimate
estimate of
of k;
k;
reca10ulated using this value of k to
the regression is recalculated to give the
the oorresponding
corresponding best
best estimates
parameters.
of the a and b parameters.

Fbr example, suppose we have the data relating plot

For example9 plot age and height
age and height shown
shown on
on figure
figure
to which
A.4.1 to whioh we
we wish
wish to
to fit
fit the
the model
model (3):
(3):
b
Y = a(1
a(l - exp(-k.X»
exp(-k.X))b

where plot
where plot height is YY and
height is age is
and age is X.
X. We use the linear
linear form:
form:

Y = log
log Y + b.log(1
log aa + b.10g(1 exp(-k. X»
exp(-k.X))

and estimate log aa as the intercept

interoept and b as thethe slope in aa simple linear regression
regression of
of
log Y 10g(1-exp(-k.X» . In this regression we are mainly conoerned
Y on log(1-exp(-k.X)). concerned at
at this
this stage
stage with
with
the residuals or deviations, sum
sum ofof squares,
squares, symboli3ed
symboli3ed as as DSS.
DSS. This can
oan be obtained as
shown on Fbrm A.2 in seotion 2.1.
shown on Form A.2 in section 2.1. With the
the data from
from figure A.4.1
A.4.1 and using the trial
trial
of kk shown
values of shown below
below we
we obtain
obtain the
the deviation
deviation sums of squares:
BumS of squares:

.!s Deviation Sums of Squares

00.05
. 05 0.2802
00.15
. 15 0 . 0302
0.0302
0.25 0.0732
0.35
0.35 0.2657
0.45 0.4885
0.4885

fit (minimum
The best fit (minimtun DSS) appears to
DSS) appears to be
be near
near aa kk value
value of
of 0.15.
0.15. Taking some
some addi-
addi-
tional trial values we have:

1s ~
DSS

0.11 00.0916
. 0916
0.13 0.0543
0.0543
0.17
0.17 0.0187
0.19 0.0187
0.21 0.0287
0.23 0.0474

graphically (figure
Plotting these values graphically (figure A.4.2)
A.4.2) we can see that the minimum
minimtun appears
to
to be olose to kk== 0.18.
close to 0.18. When the
the coefficient
coefficient values
values are
are calculated
oa10ulated for
for this
this value of
of k,
k,
we find:
find:
logea - 3.290 ( . ' .. aa== 26.83)
( .6 26.83) bb == 5.199
5.199

and henoe resultant equation

hence our resultant equation is:
is :
1
H == 26.83(1_exp(-O.18.A»5.
H 99
26.83(1-exp(-0.18.A))5°199

whioh figure A.4.1

which is plotted on figure broken line.
A.4.1 as a broken line.
 - 169-
169

Figure A04.1
.Ellre A.4.1 Hypothetical height-age
Hypothetical data for
heightage data for aa plot,
plot,
model (broken
together with a model (broken line)
line) fitted
fitted
by the
by the nonlinear
nonlinear regression
regression method
method
desoribed in the
described in text
the teat

Height (me)
(m.)

30

25

;
;
20
,/ "
I
/
/
I

15 I
I
I
I
I
I

10 I.
I Original data
••----..o Original data

Fitted
Fittedmodel
model

o 5 10 15 20 25
Age
Age (years)
 --170-
170-

Figure A.4.2 Graphical determination of kk parameter

parameter
value which minimizes
minimizes residual
residual sums
sums of
of
squares in a nonlinear regression
sauares

Residual sum
Residual
squares
of sauares
0.10

0.08

0.06

Interpol ated kk value

Interpolated value
at the
at the minim=
minimum residual
residual
sum oftsquares
sum of, squares
0.04

0.02

o.oo+--------r------~------~~--~--~------,
0.00
0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17
0.17 0.19 0.21

kk parameter value
 --171
171 -
-

approaoh can
This approach can be
be easily
easily extended
erlended in two ways, although a
a detailed disoussion
discussion
lies outside the scope
scope of
of this
this manual.
manual.

(1) in which only £!!!!

Any model in one of the parameters to be fitted is nonlinear
fitted is nonlinear
fitted in
can be fitted in an
an analogous
analog<lus manner
manner to
to that
that described
described above.
above. For example,
could have:
we could have:

Y. b0+b1X1k +bX +bXkk

2 2 3 2 1

and fit the bi using

using multiple
multiple linear
linear regression
regression with
with aa series
series of
of trial
trial
values of
of k;
k; plot
plot the resultant residual sums ofof squares
squares for
for each
each trial;
trial;
estimate the resultant kk at
at the
the minimum;
minimum; and then fit
and then fit the
the bi
bi using
using that
that
value of
of k.
k.

(ii) The search for

for the value of k whioh
which minimizes the residual
residual sum
sum of
of squares
squares
can be automated so that all the parameters including
inclu1ing the
the nonlinear
nonlinear para.-
para-
meter can be
be calculated
calculated by
by aa computer
oomputer programme.
programme. This isis quite easy to
do
do with a
a single nonlinear parameter with the resultant
resultant programmes
programmes being
being
compact enough
enough even
even for
for some
some programmable
programmable calculators.
calculators. Suitable minimiza.-
minimiza-
tion methods are suggested in Sadler (1975).

The above methods are designed for

for the
the worker who does not have access toto aa large or
medium sized computer. Given good computing
oomputing facilities,
facilities, the best and most flexible
flexible approach
fitting is
to nonlinear curve fitting is by
by one of
of the
the modifications
modifications of the
the so-called Gauss-Newton
procedure,
procedure, as
as disoussed
discussed in such standard textbookB
textbooks asas Draper & Smith (1966). These methods
are quite difficult to understand,
understand, although the ultimate
ultimate result, namely aa set of fitted
fitted
coefficients,
coefficients, may be easy
easy enough
enough to
to use.
use. Consequently, most
Consequsntly, most workers
workers will
will need
need access
access to
to
aa computer programme that can be
be adapted to
to their machine.
machine. There are aa number of such
programmes available, including
inclu1ing for example, SNIFTA
SNIFl'A (Small
(Small Nonlinear Fitting Alg<lrithm)
Algorithm)
which isis written in
in ANSI 66
66 FORTRAN
FORTRAN and
and is
is available
available from:
from:

Biometrics Section
Silvioul ture
Unit of Tropical Silvidulture
Forestry Institute
Commonwealth Fbrestry Institute
South Parks
ParkB Road,
Road, Oxford
Oxford OX1
0X1 3RB
3RB
United Kingdom.
Kingdom.

,"
 - 173
-173-

Appendix B
43.12penclixB

TAllLES OF
TABLES OFCOMMON
COMMON TRANSFORMATIONS
TRANSFORJ.IATIONS USED
USED FOR

Iill:lIilllSION DESCRIBED n,
MODElS DESCRIBED
REGRESSION MODRTS THE: TEXT
IN THE TEXT
 --175-
175 -

Table 11 Natural
Natural logarithms (base e)
logarithms (base e) for
for values
values 1 to
to
1 100
100

X
X In
ln X
X X
X In X
ln X X
X In X
ln X
----------- ---------- -----------
1
1 00.00000
. 00000 36
36 3.58351
3.58351 71
71 4.26267
4.26267
2
2 0.69314 37
37 3.61091
3.61091 72 4.27666
4.27666
33 1. 09861
1.09861 38
38 3.63758 73
73 4.29045
4.29045
4
4 1. 38629
1.38629 39
39 3.66356
3.66356 74
74 4.30406
5 1.60943 40
40 3.68887
3.68887 75
75 4.31748
4.31748
66 1.79175 41
41 3.71357
3.71357 76
76 4.33073
4.33073
77 1.94591
1.94591 42
42 3. 73766
3.73766 77
77 4.34380
88 22.07944
. 07944 43 3.76120
3.76120 78
78 44.35670
. 35670
99 2.19722
2.19722 44
44 3.784 18
3.78418 79
79 4.369 44
4.36944

10
10 2.30258 45 3. 80666
3.80666 80
80 4. 38202
4.38202
11
11 2.39789 46
46 3. 82864
3.82864 81
81 4.39444
12
12 22.48490
. 48490 47 3. 85014
3.85014 82
82 4.40671
4.40671
13
13 2.56494 48
48 3.87120
3.87120 83
83 4.41884
4.41884
14
14 2.63905 49 3.89182 84
84 4.43081
4.43081

15
15 2.70805 50
50 3.91202 85
85 4.44265
4.44265
16
16 2.77258 51
51 3.93182
3.93182 86
86 4.45434
17
17 2.83321 52
52 3.95124 87 4.46590
4.46590
18
18 2.89037 53 3.97029
3.97029 88
88 44.47733
. 47733
19 2.94443 54
54 3. 98898
3.98898 89
89 4. 48863
4.48863

20 2.99573
2.99573 55 4 . 00733
4.00733 90
90 4.49980
21
21 3.04452 56
56 4. 02535
4.02535 91
91 4. 51085
4.51085
22
22 3.09104 57 4.04305
4.04305 92 4.52178
4.52178
23
23 3.13549 58
58 4.06044 93
93 4.53259
4.53259
24
24 3.17805 59
59 4.07753
4.07753 94 4.54329

25
25 3.21887 60
60 4. 09434
4.09434 95
95 4.55387
4.55387
26 3 . 25809
3.25809 61
61 4 . 11087
4.11087 96 4.56434
4.56434
27
27 3.29583 62
62 4.12713 97
97 4.57471
4.57471
28 33.33220
. 33220 63 4.14313
4.14313 98 4.58496
4.58496
29 3. 36729
3.36729 64
64 4.15888 99
99 4 . 59511
4.59511

30
30 3.40119 65
65 4.17438
4.17438 100
100 4 . 60517
4.60517
31
31 3.43398
3.43398 66
66 4.18965 101
101 4.61512
4.61512
32
32 3.46573 67
67 4.20469 102
102 4.62497
33
33 3.49650 68
68 4. 21950
4.21950 103
103 4. 63472
4.63472
34
34 3.52636 69
69 4.23410 104
104 4 . 64439
4.64439

35 3.55534
3.55534 70
70 4.24849 105
105 4. 65396
4.65396
 -- 176
176 _-
Table 22 Exponentialfunction
Exponential function exp(X)
exp(X)for
for values
values 00 to 55

X
X .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09
0.11
0. 1.10
1. 10 1. 11
1.11 1.12
1. 12 1.13 1.15
1. 15 1. 16
1.16 1. 17
1.17 1. 18
1.18 1.19 1.20
0.2 1.22
1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.27 1.28 1.29 1. 30
1.30 1.32
1.32 1.33
0.3 1.34
1. 34 1.36
1. 36 1.37
1. 37 1.39 1. 40
1.40 1'.41
1.41 1.43
1. 43 1. 44
1.44 1.46 1.47
0.4 1.49
1.49 1.50 1.52 1.53 1.55 1.56
1.56 1.58 1.59
1.59 1. 61
1.61 1.63
0.5 1.64 1.66 1.68
1. 68 1.69 1.71 1.73 1.75 1.76 1.78 1.80
0.6 1.82
1.82 1.84 1.85 1.87 1.89 1.91
1. 91 1.93 1.95 1.97 1.99
0.7 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07
2. 07 2.09 2.11
2. 11 2.13 2.15 2.18 2.20
00.8
.8 2.22 2.24 2.27 2.29 2.31 22.33
. 33 2.36 2.38 2.41 2.43
2.14

0.9 2.45 2.48 2.50 2.53 2.55 2.58 2.61 2.63 2.66 2.69
1.0 2.71 . 2.74 2.77 2.80 2.82 2.85 2.88 2.91 2.94 2.97
1.1
1.1 3.00 3.03
3.03 3.06 3.09 3.12
3.12 3.15 3.18 3.22 3.25 3.28
1.2 3.32 3.35 3.38 3.42 3.45 3.49 3.52 3.56 3.59 3.63
1.3 3.66 3.70 3.74 3.78
3. 78 3.81 3.85 3.89 3.93 3.97 4.01
1.4 4.05 4.09 4.13 4.17 44.22
.22 4.26 4.30
4 .30 4.34 4.39 4.43
1.5 4.48 4.52 4.57 4.61 4.66 4.71 4.75 4.80 4.85 4.90
1.6 4.95 5.00 5.05 5.10 5.15 5.20 55.25
.25 5.31 5.36 5.41
1.7 5.47 5.52 5.58 5.64 5.69 5.75 5.81 55.87
. 87 5.92 55.98
.98
1.8
1.8 6.04 6.6.11
11 6.17 6.23 6.29 6.35 6.42 6.48 6.55 6.61
1.9
1.9 6.68 6.75 6.82 6.88 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.17 7.24 7.31
2.0 7.38 7.46 7.53 7.61 77.69
.69 7.76 7.84 7.92 8.00 8.08
8.08
2.1 8.16 8.24 8.33 8.41 8.49 8.58 8.67 8.75 8.84 8.93
2.2 9.02 9.11 9.20 9.29 9.39 9.48 9.58 9.67
9 . 67 9.77 9.87
2.3 9.97 10.07 10.17 10.27 10.38 10.48 10.59 10.69 10.80
10.80 10.91
10.91
2.4 11.02
11 .02 11.13
11 . 13 11.24
11 .24 11.35 11.47 11.58
11 .58 11.70
11 .70 11 .82
11.82 11.94
11. 94 12.06
2.55
2. 12.18 12.30 12.42 12.55 12.67 12.80 12.93 13.06 13.19 13.32
2.6 13.46 13.59 13.73 13.87 14.01 14.15 14.29 14.43
14.43 14.58 14 . 73
14.73
2.7 14.87 15.02 15.18 15.33 15.48 15.64
15.64 15.79 15.95 16. 11
16.11 16.28
16.28
2.8 16.44 16.60 16.77 18.94
16 . 94 17.11
17 .11 17.28 17.46 17.63
17.63 17.81
17 .81 17.99
17 .99
2.9 18.17 18.35
18.35 18.54 18.72 18.91 19.10
19. 10 19.29 19.49 19.68
19.68 19.88
3.0 20.08 20.28 20.49 20.69 20.90 21.11
21 • 11 21.32 21.54
21.54 21.75 21.97
21.97
3.11
3. 22.19 22.42 22.64 22.87 23.10 23.33 23.57 23.80 24.04 24.28
3.2 24.53
24 . 53 24.77 25.02 25.27 25.53 25.79 26.04 26.31
26 . 31 26.57 26.84
26.84
3.3 27.11
27. 27.38
11 27 . 38 27.66 27.93 28.21 28.50 28.78
28.78 29.07 29.37 29.66
3.4 29.96 30.26 30.56 31.18
30.87 31 . 18 31.50 31.81
31 .81 32.13
32.13 32.45
32.45 32.78
3.5 33.11
33. 11 33.44 33.78 34.12 34.46 34.81 35.16 35.51 35.87 36.23
3.6 36.59 36.96 37.33 37.71 38.09 38.47 38.86
38.86 39.25 39.64 40.04
3.7 40.44
40 . 44 40.85 41.26 41.67 42.09 42.52
42.52. 42.94 43.38 43.81 44.25
3.8 44.70 45.15 45.60 46.06 46.52 46.99 in .46
47.46 47.94
47.94 48.42 48.91
3.9 49.40 49.89 50.40 51.41
50.90 51. 4.1 51.93 52.45 52.98 53.51 54.05
4.0 54.59 55.14 55.70 56.26 56.82 .57.39 57.39 57.97 58.55 59.14 59-73
58.55 59.14
4.1 60.34
60 •.34 60.94 61.55 62.17 62.80 63.43 83.43 64.07 64.71 65.36 66.02
4.2 66.68 67.35 68.03 68.71 69.40 70.10 70.80 71.52 71.5? 72.24 72.96
4.3 73.69 74.44 75.18 75.94 76.70 77.47 77 .47 78.25 79.04 79.83 80.64
4.4 81.45 82.26 83.09 83.93 84.77 85.62 86.48 87.35
84.77 85.62 87.35 88.23 89.12
4.5 90.01 90.92 91.83 92.75 93.69 94.63 95.58 96.54 97.51 98.49
4.6 99.48 100.48
99.48 100.48 101.49
101 .49 102.51
102.51 103.54
103.54 104.58
104 . 58 105.63
105.63 106.69
106.69 107.77
107.77 108.85
108.85
4.7 109.94 111.05
109.94 11 1. 05 112.16
112.16 113.29
113.29 114.43
114.43 115.58
115 . 58 116.74
116.74 117.91
117.91 119.10
119.10 120.30
120.30
4.8 121.51 122.73
121.51 122.73 123.96
123.96 125.21
125.21 126.46
126.46 127.74
1?7.74 129.02
129.02 130.32
130.32 131.63
131.63 132.95
132.95
4.9 134.28 135.63
134.28 135.63 137.00
137 .00 138.37
138.37 139.77
139.77 141.17
141.17 142.59
142.59 144.02
144.02 145.47
145.47 146.93
146.93
 -- 177
177 --
Table
Table 33 Powers of reciprocals
Powers of reciprocals for vaìue
values 2 tO to 50
50

Value of
Value of Power
Power
X
X 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
.57434
22 .87055 .75785 .65975 .50000 .43527 .37892 .32987 .28717 .25000
3 .80274 .64439 .51728 .41524 .33333 .26758 .21479 .17242 .13841
• 13841 .11111
44 .75785 .57434 .43527 .32987 .25000 .18946 .14358 ..10881
10881 .08246 .06250
55 .72477 .52530
.52530 .38073 .27594 .20000 .14495 .10506 .07614 .05518 .04000
66 ..69882
69882 .48835 .34127 .23849 16666
..16666 .11647 .08139 .05687 .03974 .02777
7 .67761 .45915 .31112 .21082 •.14285
14285 .09680 .06559 .04444 .03011 .02040
8 .65975 .43527 .28717 .18946 .12500 .08246 .05440 .03589 .02368 .01562
9 .64439 .41524 .26758 .17242 .11111 .07159 .04613 .02973 .01915 .01234
10 .63095 .398-10
.39810 .25118 ..15848
15848 .10000 .06309 .03981 .02511 .01584 .01000
11
11 .61904 .38321 .23722 .14685 .09090 .05627 .03483 .02156 .01335 .00826
12 .60836 .37010 .22516 .13697 .08333 .0506<>
.05069 .03084 .01876 .01141 .00694
13 .59870 .35844 .21460
. 21460 .12848 .07692 .04605 .02757 .01650 .00988
. 00988 .00591
.005Q1
14 .58989 ..34797
34797 .20526 .12108 .07142 .04213 .02485 .01466 .00864 .00510
15 .58181 .33850 .19694
.196911 .11458
. 11458 .06666 .03878 .02256
. 02256 .01312 .00763 .00444
16 .57434 .32987 .18946
· 18946 .10881 .06250 .03589 ..02061
02061 .01184 .00680 .00390
17 .56742 .32197 .18269 .10366 .05882 .03337 .01893 .01074 .00609 .00346
18 .56097 .31469 .17653 .09903 .05555 .03116 .01748 .00980 .00550 .00308
19 .55494
.55494 .30796 .17090 .09484 .05263 .02920 .01620 .00899 .00499 .00277
20 .54928
.54928 .30170 .16572 .09102 .05000 .02746 .01508 .00828 . 00455
.00455 .00250
21 .54394 .29587 ·.16094
16094 .08754 .04761 .02590 .01408 .00766 .00416 .00226
22 ..53890
53890 .29042 ·.15651
15651 .08434 .04545 .02449 .01320 .00711 .00383 .00206
23 .53413 .28530 ·.15239
15239 .08139 .04347 :02322
'-02322 .01240 .00662 .00353 .00189
24 .52961 .28048 .14855 .07867 .04166 .02206 .01168 .00618 .00327 . 00173
.00173
25 .52530 .27594 ·.14495
14495 .07614 .04000 .02101 .01103 .00579 .00304 .00160
26 .52120 .27165
. 27165 .14158 .07379 .03846 .02004 .01044 .00544 .00283 .00147
27 .51728 .26758 .13841 ..07159
07159 .03703 .01915 .00991 .00512 .00265 .00137
28 .51353 .26371 .13542 .06954 .03571 .01834 .00941 .00483 .00248 ..00127
00127
29 .50994 .26004 .13260 .06762 .03448 .01758 .00896 .00457 .00233 .00118
. 00118

30
30 .50649 .25653 ·.12993
12993 .06581 .03333 .01688 . 00855
.00855 .00433 .00219 .00111
31
31 .50318 .25319 .12740 .06410
. 06410 .03225 .01623 .00816 .00410
. 00410 .00206
. 00206 .00104
32
32 .50000 .25000 .12500 .06250 .03125 .01562 . 00781
.00781 .00390 .00195 .00097
33 .49693 .24694 .12271 .06098 .03030 .01505
.01509 .00748 .00371 .00184 .00091
34
34 .49397 .24401 .12053 .05954 .02941 .01452 .00717 .00354 ..00175
00175 .00086
35
35 49111
.49111 .24119 ·.11845
11845 .05817 .02857 .01401
.01403 .00689 .00338 .00166 .00081
36
36 .48835 .23849 .11647 .05687 .02777 .01356 .00662
.00552 .00323 .00157 .00077
37
37 .48569 .23589 ·.11457
11457 .05564
.05554 .02702 .01312
.0131~ .00637
.00537 .00309 .00150 .00073
38 .48310 .23339 .11275 .05447 .02631
.02531 .01271 - .00614
.00514 .00295
.00296 ..00143
00143 ..00069
00059
39 .48050
.48060 .23097 ·.11100
11100 .05335 .02564 .01212
.0123~ .00592 .00284 .00136 .00055
.00065
40 .47817 .22865 .10933 .05228 .02500
.025Qll _ .01199
.0119~ .00571 .00273
.00273 .00130 .00062
.00052
41 .22640
.47582 ·.22640 .10772 .05125 .02439 .01160
.01150 .00552 .00262
.00252 .00125 .00059
42 .47353 .22423 ·.10618
10618 .05028 .02380 .01121 .00533 .00252 .00119
.00119 .00056
43 .47130 .22213 .10469
.10459 .04934 .02325 .01096 .00516 .00243 .00114
.00114 .00054
44 .46914 .22009 .10325 .04844 .02272 .01066
.01056 .00500 .00234 .00110 .000q1
.000~1
45 .46704 .21812 .10187 .04758 .02222 .01037 .00484
. 00484 .00226 .00105
.00105 .00049
.0004Q
46 .46499 .21622 .10054 .04675
.04575 .02173 .01010 .00470 .00218 .00101 .00047
47 .46299 .21436 .09925 .04595 .02127 .00935 .00456
.00455 .00211 .00097 .00045
48 .46105 .21257 .09800 .04518 .02083 ..00960
00960 .00442 .00204 .00094 .00043
49 .45915 .21082 .09680 .04444 .02040
;02040 .00937 .00430 .00197 .00090 .00041

50 .45730 .20912 .09563 .04373 .02000 .00914 .00418 .00191 .00087 .00040
 - 178-
178 --

Table 44
Table Spacing and
Spacint and relative ssacint%%from
relativespacing fromheight and stocking
het and stocking

Spacing 2.0
Spacing 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
3.5 4.0
4.0 4.5
4.5 5.0 6.0 7.0
7.0 B.
8.0O m.
m.
N/ha .
N/ha. 2500
2500 1600 1111
1111 B16
816 625 494
494 400
400 278
278 204
204 256
Height
Height Relative spacing
-------------------------- Relative spacing %%-------------------
55 40
40 50
50 60
60 70
70 80
80 89 100
100 119
119 140
140 160
160
6
6 33
33 41
41 50
50 58
58 66
66 7~
74 83
83 99
99 116
116 133
77 28
28 35
35 42
42 50
50 57 64
64 71
71 85 100
100 114
114
88 25 31
31 37
37 43
43 50
50 56
56 62
62 74 87 100
100
99 22
22 27
27 33
33 38
38 44
44 49 55
55 66
66 77 88
88

10
10 20 25 30 35
35 40
40 44
44 50 59
59 70 80
80
11
11 18
18 22
22 27 31
31 36
36 40
40 45
45 54
54 63
63 72
12
12 16
16 20
20 25
25 29
29 33 37
37 41
41 49
49 58
58 66
66
13
13 15
15 19
19 23 26 30
30 34
34 38
38 46
46 53
53 61
61
14
14 14
14 17
17 21
21 25
25 28
28 32
32 35
35 42
42 50
50 57
57

15
15 13
13 16
16 20
20 23
23 26 29
29 33
33 39
39 46
46 53
53
16
16 12
12 15
15 18
18 21
21 25
25 28
28 31
31 37
37 43
43 50
50
17
17 11
11 14
14 17
17 20
20 23
23 26
26 29
29 35
35 41
41 47
47
18
18 11
11 13
13 16
16 19
19 22
22 24
24 27
27 33
33 38
38 44
44
19
19 10
10 13
13 15
15 18
18 21
21 23
23 26
26 31
31 36
36 42
42

20
20 10
10 12
12 15 17
17 20
20 22
22 25
25 29
29 35
35 40
40
21
21 99 11
11 14
14 16
16 19
19 21
21 23
23 28
28 33
33 38
38
22
22 99 11
11 13
13 15
15 18
18 20
20 22
22 27
27 31
31 36
36
23 88 10
10 13
13 15
15 17
17 19
19 21
21 26
26 30
30 34
34
24
24 88 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16 18
13 20
20 24
24 29
29 33
33

25
25 88 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16 17
17 20
20 23
23 28
28 32
32
26 77 99 11
11 13
13 15
15 17
17 19
19 23
23 26
26 30
30
27 7
7 99 11
11 12
12 14
14 16
16 18
18 22
22 25
25 29
29
28
28 77 8 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16 17
17 21
21 25
25 28
28
29 66 88 10
10 12
12 13
13 15
15 17
17 20 24
24 27

30 66 88 10
10 11
11 13
13 14
14 16
16 19
19 23 26
26
31
31 66 88 99 11
11 12
12 14
14 16
16 19
19 22 25
32
32 66 7
7 99 10
10 12
12 14
14 15
15 18
18 21
21 25
25
33
33 6
6 77 9
9 10
10 12
12 13 15
15 18
18 21
21 24
24
34
34 55 77 88 10
10 11
11 13
13 14
14 17 20
20 23
23

35
35 55 77 8
8 10
10 11
11 12
12 14
14 17
17 20
20 22
22
36 55 6
6 88 99 11
11 12
1 13
13 16
16 19 22
22
37
37 55 66 8
8 99 10
10 12
12 13
13 16
16 18
18 21
21
38
38 55 6
6 77 9
9 10
10 11
11 13
13 15
15 18
18 21
21
39
39 55 66 7
7 88 10
10 11
11 12
12 15
15 17 20
20

40
40 55 6
6 7
7 8
8 10
10 11
11 12
12 14
14 17
17 20
20
41
41 4
4 66 77 8
8 99 10
10 12
12 14
14 17 19
42 4
4 5
5 7
7 88 9
9 10
10 11
11 14
14 16
16 19
19
43 44 55 6
6 8
8 99 10
10 11
11 13
13 16
16 18
18
44 4
4 55 66 77 9
9 1C
10 11
11 13
13 15
15 18
18

45
245 44 5
5 6
6 7
7 88 99 11
11 13 15
15 17
 -- 17
1799 --

APJ)!lndix C
LmallE_2

BLANK COPIES
BLANK COP:rn:; OF
OF CALODIATION
CALCUlATION AND
AND

nATA REX:ORDING FORMS

DATA RECORDING FORMEDESCRI1!E:D
DESCRIBEDIN THE MAIN
IN PI-JE TEXT
MAIN TEXT
 - 181-

Form 3.1 Sample Plot Assessment Form - Plantations

••• ot•••
Sheet ...of...
Forest
Forest District Compartment Plot number Species

LI I I I CD Office
use
Plot
area I
Slope
R.
CD
Assessment
date OJ
month
month year
II
IT]
no. of
no. of
Tree no. Diameter bhob Height - - - - Codes -
- - - Codes -
cards

Notes .......................................................... .

..... ...................................... .....................

• • • • • • • • • 10 • • • • • 0 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Assessed by •••••••••••••••••••••••••• Date •••• / •.•• / ••••

USE BACK OF FCIDI FOR HEIGHT CALCULATIONS
 -
- 1~-
182' -

Form 4.1 one and

mm n slope
COmmon andcommon
common interagression
intercept regression models
Part 1 data summarization. Use ' as
Plot data part 1 sheets
as many part sheets
as for all
as necessary for all plots.
plots.
transformations used:
Data transformations used: xX =
=
yY = --------------------------
fPiot
lot
Raw data
fray; Transformed data
data
X
X y
Y X2
X2 yy
XY

Tot als n
Totals
=IC=
Plot
Plot
Raw data
Raw data Transformed datu
data
xq.
-4- y
Y X2 yy
]

Totals
Totals n
_
(Plot
Plot
Raw data
Raw data Eransformed data
/rransformed
X
X y
Y X2 XY
XY

Totals
Totals n
 -- 181
18} --

Form
Forui 4 .1
4.1 s lone and common intercelIxeLreaL.312n_m2d.L1L
Common slope intercept regression models
Part 22 Totals between plots and coefficient
coefficient calculation
calculation

rXrXY
EXEXY (rx ) 2
(ELY'
rXY-gg rx2_(rx)2
2
rY
.

rx2 n EY
Plot IXY-TY x -() EX22
EX2
n n rx

Totals
rtals W W l2.I ~ ~ ~
_

(1 )/(2) =
Common slope b = (1)/(2) =
--------------------
Common intercept a = ((6)-(3))/((5)-(4))
«6)-(3))/«5)-(4)) =- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __

=
- -- - - - - -
 Form
Form 4.2
4.2 Transformations to age
Transformations to age and height data from PSF's
PSP's to
to fit
fit k
k
Schuma cher equation by common
parameter in Schumacher common slope
slope estimator
estimator

1 Ii Jj AIJ· aa b [
C x..
X IJ H··
H
IJ
J
d
d ee f 9
g h
h y.
IJ
J

~~ \ .~,\
~ ~
o~ Age Sum Diff
arff Va
2/2
.
In cc Height
,{.,
Sum
Sum Diff
..
~
e% ~
dA ~
Vg
..
In hh
.,
.
... -.,
.- . :0 •• ~ ....... .

-",.
"~~' ~ .,.~.'.

..
~

00

I I I ~a::l~" ':-,;~
-At:
-r :!-r '. 'J e'
... erf
-·l·· · ·- ·~ t
.... ::.:.;:;;,r: c' - • •••"""'-., . . . .' · "'0
-.- .
r' '-:r
:"":,:...: .. - . ... ~
'-'~f
. ..... ... ~ ..... 'l~ ~"_ V ~ ~' ,,~: I '

1....toemarasovmaceasw=-rrensaler-mdeman.

IJIIII
Transfer
Transfer
4. 1
to form 4.1
 -- 185 --

Form A.1
A.l Coefficients
Coefficients for
for an approximating quadratic or
cubic curve

Objective To calculate
calculr.te the coefficients b
bi in either
e·i ther of
of the
the
equations:

Y = bo +.X + b2.X2 + b3.X3 (cubic curve)

or
Y = b
o
+ b 1 .Y + b 2.X-2 (qua dra.tic curve)
(quadratic curve)
-

Items marked <>

<> are not required for
for the
the quadratic
qU8.dratic curve
curve
calculations.

(1) Tabula te 33 or 4 data points for

Tabulate for the
the function
function and
and compute
compute
and cubes.
squares and cubes.

I 1 2 3 4
<>
Y;
Yi
...
<>
X
XiI
<>
X?
<> <>
X3 <>
I
<>

(2) Froe table

From t a ble (1)
(1) calculate
calcula te differences
differen c es as
a s shown:
s h own :

I 'li+1 -'li \+1- Xi X2 _X2i .... Xi3+1 _X3i

\II +1 'i+1i-41 1 1

<>
<>
1
1
<>
22
3
<> ...
<> ,.
<> .
<>

From table
table (2)
(2) construct
construct the
the terms shown in
terms shown in the
the table
tabl e
below, according
according to
to
the following defini-
the defini-
I u·I v·
v. w·
wi
I
tions:
tions:
I
<> u i = (Yd.4-1Yi)/(xi+1xi)
(Yi+l-Yi) /( Xi+l-Xi )
1
1

<>
(X~+l-X~)
1+1 i"/(Xi+l-Xi)
x 2. +1
2
2 V . = (X2
Vi=
1_
y-
-1+1 `11
3
<> <> <>
Wi=
W .= (x31+1
x3)/(x
i
x.)
( X~+l-X~)/(Xi+l-Xi)
1+1 i
 -- 186
186 --

Form A.1
A.l (continued....)
(continued ••. • )

(4)
(4) table (3) calculate the terms in
From table in the
the following
following table,
table,
definitions:
from these definitions:

I
1
Vi+1-Vj PL
P. q.I
q. pi= (ui+i-ui)/(vi+i-vi)
v1.+1-vi 1
i

.0.
<>
11 ql.. = (VI. l-W. )/(v. l-v.)
qi= 1.+ 1. 1.+ 1.
<> .c.
<> <>
.0.
2
(5)
(5) Calcul a te the coefficients according to
Calculate to the
the following
following
formulae:
Coefficient Cubic eqn.
Cubic eqn. Quadratic eqn.
Quadratic e gn.

b3 (p2-P1)/(c12-q1) None
=

b2 p1-b3. q1 pl

= =

ul -b2.vi
b1 u1 -b2ev1 -b3owl

= =

bo Y1 -b1 .X1 -b2* 1X2-b3-

3
1 1112 1
Y -b .X -b .X2

= =

" " " " " " " "

 --187-
187 -

Form A.3 Coefficients and statistics of a regression with

_T2_redjc-ples(Etart
two predictor variables (part1)
1)

Descri~tion of problem:
Description of problem: __________________________-----------

(1) Regression data products

4) Corrected rroducts
((4)
Y v
A Z rye. = I.Ye._( H) e./n =
fy7-:-EY72;51-/n
ryqf
Exy = rXY-I.X.I.Y/n ==
= .EXY-XX.EY/n
Ezy = EZY-EZ.ZY/n
rzy I.ZY-rZo rY/n ==
Xx.2 = rx
rx2 2_(LX)2/n -
EX2-(Y,X)2/n =
zxz = EXZ-YX.EZ/n
rx~ = I.Xz-rx.rz/n = =
rz 2•. pz)2Ln
rz22 == Ez2-(IZ 9 n ==
I -
5) Determinant &
((5) Gauss multipliers
8: Gauss multi-_iers
xx 2 .rz"-(rxz)"
2.
D == Yx-.Ez--(Ixz)2
D =
=

° = rz2/D
gl=
.0"1 Ez2/D =
=
-
.0- = -1.xz.jD
o9 -yxz/D
g2= =
=
g3= rx 2/D
g3= Ex2/D =
=

6) Regression coefficients
((6) coefficients
b = g10Exy-t-g9.1.zy
bi=
l gl .ryqf+g 2· rzy =-
bb2=
2= g2
g2·rxy+g3orzy.-Zy
)
.Exydrbcx3 -
==
b0= Y-b l oX-b 2 oZ
bO= Y-b1°7-b20Z =
______

(7)
1--(77) sum of
Regression sum of squares
squares
-2
rye. = blo ryqf+ b 2 .lZY ==
= b1..ncy+b20Izy

(8)
Ed-= Ey
1.d"= 777-
lY"-ry~
-Ly ==
sum of
(8 ) Residual sum of squares
Sf!.uares
I
( 9) Residual degrees
La....Residual freedom
degrees of freedom
( 2) Totals and products df=
idf= n-3
n-3 =-
1.y2 1.Y rXY r/,Y
zZY

n rx 1.Z
ZZ

(3) Means
1.X 2 rxz
EXZ
y =
I.Y/n =
A = i.:X/n =
,. rZ/n =
1.<12
B
" =
 - 188
- 188 --

Form A.3 ••• Pe.rt 2)

((...Fart 2)

(10
(10)) Corr el a tions between
Correlations between variables
r. xy/{( r.x 2 • ry 2) =
rryx == Exy//(Ex2.zy2)
ryz = r.yz/{(
yz =
r.z 2 .r.y2) =
Eyz//(Ez2.Ey2) =
f
r xz == r.xz/{(r.x
zxz//kEx .zz 2
2 2
2,
. r.z ) ==
)

(11) Multiple
Mul tiple correlation
correlation coefficient
coefficient RR and R~
and R-
r? = r.Y/zy
R2 = r.Y/ry ==
,R
R =/R2
= { R2 =

(1 2 ) Anal ys is of
Analysis variance
of variance
sum of mean variance
sQua.res
so.upres d.f.
d.f. square rratio
at io
Regression r.y-2
Ty-2 2
Residua.l
Residual Id 7
r.d « df
df S-
= s"
=7.

Tot al
Total r.y"
Zy2 n-l
n-1

(13) Residual s tandard deviation

Residual standard

(14) Standard error and

and t-value
t-value of coefficients
of coefficients

Coe ff icient
Coefficient bb1l bb22

Standard error sb
sb sq-gi=
s·{gl= s·{g3=
~
t =
= b/sb
b/s b

(15) Confidence intervals for

for predictions
predictions
For a series of m
m estimates
estimates of
of Y at
Y at aa given
given level
level of
of XX and
and Z,
Z,
the
the standard error of the
the mean prediction is
prediction is given
given by:
by:

= s. \r(l/m +1/n + g1.x2 + 2.g20x.z + g3.z2 ) ,

where
where x = (X
(X - 7) and zz = (Z -- 7).
- X) Z). Fer a large sample,
For a sample, l/m
lim
will
will be
be zero; single point it
zero; for a single it will
will be
be unity.
 - 189
189 -

Appendix DD

ANNOTATED
ANNOTATTID BIBLIOGRAPHY
BIBLIOGRAPHY

bibliography is !!2!
This bibliograPhy not a comprehensive bibliography of forest
forest mensuration
mensuration litera.-
litera-
ture.
ture. It simply suggests a
simply suggests a set
set of reference
referenoe books to acoompany this manual, which
whioh may
may be
used to research or extend the teohniques suggested.
suggested.

Technical articles referred to in the

the text as footnotes
text are given as footnotes and
and are not
represented here.
 -- 191
191 -
-

E •• The
Assmann, E., The Principles
Prinoiples of Forest Yield Study.
of Forest Stuiy. pp 506
Pergamon Press. pp 506
1970
.!
A very treaty on
very comprehensive treaty on the theory
theory of forest
forest growth,
growth, involving discussion
discussion
of numerous
numerous examples. Mostof
examples. Most of the ooneepts
oonoepts are generalized
generalized from
from North
North European,
EUropean
even-agedstands.
even--ag<ld stands,and
andare
arenot
notneoessarily
necessarilyvalid
valid in
in the
the tropios.
tropics. Onlystatio
Only static yield
models are
and allometrio models are discussed.
disoussed.

Avery, T.E., Forest Measurements.

Measurements. NoGra. ......Hl.ll. pp
MoGraw-Hill. 290.
pp 290.
1967
Emphasises practical
practical aspects
aspeo·te of
of field
field work
oork and JlZ'1ma.ry allalysis
and primary analysis of data, as
of data, as opposed
opposed
·to model
to model construotion,
oonstruotion. Oriented to North American practices and terminology,
practices and terminology, so
so
not entirely
not entirely suited for the tropics,
tropios. but still still aa useful
uaeful textbook.
textbook.

Burley J. and
Burley J. and Wood P.J. (Editors),
Wood, P.J. (DUtors), A Manual
Manual on
on Speoies
Species and
and Provenanoe Research
Provenence Reee ....oh with
1976 Partioular Referenoe to
Particular Referenoe to the
the Tropics.
Tropics. Tropioal Forestry
Tropical Forestry Paper
Pa.per 10,
10, Commonwealth
Commonwealth
Forestry Institute.
Forestry Institute. Oxford.
A uasful
A useful companion volume
oompanion volume ·to tothe
thepresent
presentwork,
work,"overing
coveringpractica.l
practical a.apeots
anpeots of
of
for the exploratory
research requirements for expJ.oratory phases
phases of the introduction
introd uctioll of eYotic
exotic
plantation species.
plantation species. Praotioal orientation and
Prao~ioal in orientation simply written.
and eimply written. Separate
special appendix
appendix (by
(by J.F.
J.F. Hughes
Hughes enriand R.A.
R.A0 Plumtre)
Plumtre) oovers
covers wood quality stndies.
wood quality studies.

Cab, Computerized Methods in

in Forest Planning
Planning and Foreoasting.
end Forecasting. Annotated Bibliography F14.
F140
1977 Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau,
Commonwealth Agrioultural Bureau,MC.
UK.

published world
Covers published world literature
literature 1973-1976.
1973-1976. Gives a full abetl'a.ot
abstract on each
direotly relevell"t to the field of yield prediction
reference. Most entries are directly-re/event prediotion
and control.

L.T., JUI
Carron, L.T., Fo,.... st Mensuration.
An Outline of Forest University Press.
Australian National University Press.
1968 pp
pp 224.

oriented to
Better oriented to yield
yield and volume table construotion
and volume construction in widely spaced plantations
Amerioan or
than American or European
European texts.
texts. Brief and
e.;od clear summary of methods, but does not
niscuss problems
discuss problems of model fitting
fitting or
or construotion.
construction.

Daniel,
Daniel,C.C.and Wood.
and Wood, F.S., Fitting Equations to
F0S02 Fitting to Data.
Data. loIileyo-Interso;.enoe.
Wileyeintersoienoe. 342.
pp 342.
1971
1971
Covers praotical
Covers practical use of multiple regression for model
use fitting, inoleding
model fitting, iltoluding residual
analysis, nested regression models, stepwise regression
regression and non-linaar fitting.
non-linear fitting.
examples and
Includes examples dooumentation for
and documentation for aa computer
oomputer package,
package, but no source
but no sourcelisting.
listing.
Day, A.C.,
A.G., FUR'fRAN University Press. pp
Techniques. Cambridge University
FORTRAN Techniques. pp 96.
96.
1972
A good
A good supplement to
to any
any introduotory
introductory FORTRAN
FURTRAN course.
oourse. Covers methods of drawing
pointers, stacks,
graphs, sorting, pointers, stacks, open
open subroutines, recursion and other teohniques.
techniques.
 - 192
- 192 -
-

Draper, N. and Smith, Hog Wile;?,-Intersoienoe. pp 407.

H., Applied Regression Analysis. Wiley-Interscienoe. 407.
1966
Now almost a classical
olassical textbook on
on multiple
multiple and non-linear
non-linear regression.
regression. Covers
theory of simple regression, matrix
matrix algebra
algebra for
for multiple regression,
regression, residual
residual
analysis. stepwise regression,
analysis, stecwise regression. use of
of regression to analyse
analyse controlled
controlled experi-
experi-
ments. and introductory
ments, introductory non-linear
non-linear regression.
regression. Elementary
Elementary matrix
matrix algebra
algebra is
is
required. with differential
required, together with differential calculus.
calculus.

FAO.
FAO, Manual of Forest Inventory
Inventory with Special
Special Reference
Reference to
to Mixed Tropical
Tropical Fbrests,
Forests. Food
1973 and Agriculture Organization,
Organization. Rome.
Rome. pp
pp 200.
200.

An eesential
essential reference for
for yield
yield study
study work.
work. Much discussion
disoussion of design of
of forest
forest
sampling and appropriate formulae.
fonnulae. Practical guide lines for executing a forest
guidelines for"st
inventory and data
data recording.
reoording.

Fries, J. (Editor), ~Iodels for

(Editor). Growth Models for Tree and Stand Simulation,
and Stand Simulation. Researoh No. 30.
Note No.
Research Note
1974 of Fbrest
Department of Forest Yield
YiDld Research,
Researoh. Royal
Royal College
College of
of Forestry,
Forestry, Stockholm,
Stookholm . Sweden,
Sweden.
pp 379. (Available
pp (Available from J.
J. Fries. Scienoes. S-750
Fries, University of Agricultural Sciences, 5-750 07
07
Uppsala. Sweden)
Uppsala,

IUFRO. Working Party

Collection of papers from IlIFRO 54.01-.4
54.01-4 msetings.
meetings. Many useful
Many
ideas.

Fries, J., lIrukhart. H.

J •• Brukhart, H. and Max, To,
and Max, T•• (Editors),
(Editors). Growth Modela
Models for
for Long
Long Term
Tenn Fbrecasting
Foreoasting of
of
1978 Yields. -F\/S-1-78.
Timber Yields. -FWS-1-78, Sohool
School of Forestry and
and Wildlife
Wildlife Resouroes.
Resouroes, Virginia
Virginia
Polyteohnic
Polytechnic Institute and State University.
University, Blacksburg.
Blacksburg, VA 24061. USA.
VA 24061, pp 249.
reA. pp

Co lleotion of papers from TUFRO,

Colleotion Subject Group 54.01 meeting.
IUFRO. Subjeot meeting. ideal!!.
Many useful idear.

Green. P.E. and Carroll,

Green, Carroll. J.D.2 Mathematioal Tools
J .D.. Mathematical Tools for
for Applied
Applied Multivariate
Multivariate Analysis.
Analysis .
1976 Aoedemio Press.
Academic Press. pp pp 376.

A good self-teaching
A self-teaching text for
for matrix
matrix algebra
algebra as it relates to multiple regression
regression,,
prinoipal component analysis,
principal analysis. factor
factor analysis and ordination analysis.
analysis.

Husch.
Husch, B•• Miller.
B., Miller, C.I. and Beers.
C.I. and Beers,T.W
T.W.•• Fbrest
Forest Mensuration.
Mensuration.
1972
A 'olassical' forest
A tclassicale forest mensuration
mensuration text,
-("xt. emPhasising
emphasising measurement
measurement rather
rather than
than models,
modela.
with only
and with only very
very limited
limited treatment
treatment of
ofgroarth
gronh prediction.
prediotion. Oriented to North
Amerioan oonditions. so some practices
American conditions, practioes are inappropriate for tropical
tropioal use,
use. while
While
specifioally
specifioally tropical problems are not oonsidered.
considered. A
A useful textbook of basic
mens.uration.
mensuration.

Land.
Land, A. Powell. S.,
A. and Powell, S.. FORTRAN Codes
FORTRAN Codes for
for Mathematical
Mathematioal Programming.
Programming. Wiley. pp
PP 249.
1973
oomplete programmes
Gives complete programmes and full dooumentation
and full dooumentation for
for linear,
linear. integer
integerand. quadratio
and quadratic
programming using FORTRAN.
FORTRAN, with a brief
brief explanation ofof underlying
underlying theory.
theory.
 -- 193
193 ·'-

Parde, J., Dendrometrie.

Farde, J., Dendrometrie.
1961
A
A classioal forest mensuration,
classical text of forest mensura.tion, but with rather
but with rather more emPhasis on
more emphNlis on yield
yield
table construction than Husoh et al. 0.1. Very good on instrumenta/
instrumental measurements.
measurements,
espeoially Relsskop, and
especially Relaskop, and on
on the
the development
development of of simple
simple models
models for
for the
the inter-
inter-
relationship of stand
stlillld variables. Probably
Probably the
·the best
best current
ourrent text
text book
book on
on forest
forest
mensuration. Not oriented to tropical
tropioal problems.
problems. In In French,
French.

Pie l ou, E.C.,

Pielou, E.G., Mathema.tica.l
Mathematical Ecology. li'iley--Intersciencfl. 385.
Wiley-interscience, pp 385.
1977
An excellent
An excellent referenoe
reference book for mathematical
mathematioal modelling
modelling of population dyea.mios,
dynamics,
association analysis. Of more
population dispersion and association interest to
more interest the eoologist/
ecologist/
silvioulturist
silviculturist than to the forest manager. The association analysis section is
important for studies
stuiies in tropical
tropioal rainforests.
rainforents.

Poole, R.W., An Introduction

An Introduction to
to Quantitative
Quantitative Edology.
Ecology. MoGra_Hill.
McGraw-Hill, 532.
pp 532.
pp
1974
197A
Covers a wide range
range of
of teohniquss
teohniquas in
in eoologY with an emphasis
eoology with on model
emphasis on model building.
building.
Less theoretioal,
theoretical, and with more examples
era.mplos and more
more basio and introductory
basic and introductory informa-
informa-
tion than Pielou
Pie lou (Bee
(see above). Assumes a little
li'tUe caloulus
oaloulus and matriz
matrix algebra.
algebra.

Prod=, M., ForestBiometrics.

Prodan M. FOrest Biometrics. Pergamon Press. PP
Pergamon Press. pp 447.
1968
Very ueeful treatment
Very useful treatment of
of the
the statistical
statistioal background
baokground to
to forest
forest growth
growth studies.
studies.
moderate mathematical
Requires moderate mathematioal competence.
oompetence. GoodGood treatment of fitting non-linear
gr'G'Wth funotions,
geserwth butthe
functions,but therook is not
book is not direotly
directly oriented
oriented to
to practical application.
practical application.
Mainly influenced
Mainly influenoed by
by European forestry practioes.

D.,
Royce-Sadler, D.9 Numerioal Methods for
for Non-linear
Non-linear Regression.
Regression. University of Queensland
University
1975 Press.
Press. pppp 89.
89.

A summary
A sUJll!llal'Y of
of the
the main
main practical
practioal methods
methods for
for fitting
fitting the coefficients
coeffioients of non-
models. Assumes soma
linear models. some calculus
caloulUE and
and matrix
ma.trix algebra.
algebra. Very olear and briaf
brief
exposition of of the
the essential
essential algorithns.
algorithms.

Seber, G.A,F.,
Seber, G.A.F. Linear Regression Analysis. li'iley-Interscienoe.
Wiley-interscience. pp 465.
465.
1977
l~ore theoretical,
More theoretioa.l, more
more comprehensive
oomprehensive and more up
and more up to
to date than
than Draper
nr-d.per & Smith.
underlltanding of
Good understanding of matrix
matrix algebra
algebra required,
required, but
but aa vary
very useful
useful reference
refe:renoe
book for
book for the
the statistician.
statistician.

Shannon, R.E..
R.E., Systems Simulation: Art and
Simulation: The Axt Prentioe-Hall. pp 387.
Soienoe. Prentice4fall.
and Science. 387.
1975
A useful reference
A referenoe book
book for
for workers interested
interested in
in the
tho oonstruction
oonstruotion of
of simelation
simulation
Covers random number generation,
models. Covtrs generation. model fitting,
fitting, systems
systems analysis,
e.n.a.lysis.
on modele,
experiments on models, deoisione-making
deoisio,.....eldng using
using models
models and gives
gives several oase
case
stuiies.
studies.
 - 1911
19,4 -

G.W. and Cochran, W.G.,

Snedecor, 0.W. N.G., Statistioal ~p.thodB.
Statistical Methods. UP.
Iowa State UP,
1967
Exoa11ent book for
Ekoallent referenoe book Rt~tistical methods.
for statistical methods. Does not not require
require anan e~cessively
eTcessively
high mathematiQa1 ability
high level of mathematical ability (calculus
(oaloulus and m"trix algebra
and matrix algebra not
not needed).
needed).
Subjeots covered include
inolude linear and non-linear
linear and non-linear regression,
regression, multiple
multiple regression,
regression,
e~p"rim9ntal end sampling
expArimental and and analysis.
'<Iampling design and B.l>alysifJ. All
AI). teohniqv.
e a are
teohnives are well
wen illustrated
illustrated
with worked examples and there are
and there ere numerous
numerous test
test questions
questions on
on each
each seotion.
seotion.

Stark, P.A.,
P. A., Introduc-tion
Introduction to
to Numerioal Methods.
Numerical Methods, ~lacmills:l.
Macmillan. pp
FP 334.
334.
1970
Basio textbook
Basic textbook on numerical
numerical methods
methods for
for computers.
oomputers. Inoluies
Includes solution of equations,
simultaneous equations, numerioa1 integration and differentiation, and
numerical integration interpol,.,..
and interpola-
tion with polynomials.
polynomials. Most
Most methods are illustrated "lith FORTRAN programmes.
with short 10RTRAN programmes.
Also gives introduction
introduction to
to matrix
matrix algebra.
algebra. Revires
RequirM mathematical
mathematioal abili*y
ability to
to about
about
university entrance standard.
stlUldard. Explains matrix algebra, but assumes knowledge of
calouloo.
calculus.

Universal ancyclopaedia
Encyolo]:aedia of
of Mathematics.
Jf,athematics. Pan
Pan Books.
Books. pp 715.
pp 115.

An inexpensive (panerback)
(Jlf\perbaok) and extremely
ext"emely useful referenoe
reference book for
for formulae
formulae in
in
algebra,
algebra, trigonometry,
trlgonometry, geometry,
geometry, calculus.
calculus, etc.,
etc., mathematioal
mathematical tables
tables and
and
terminology.
termino logy.

Wagner, H.M., Prinoiples

Prinoiples of Management Science.
Soienoe. Prentice-Ha.ll.
Prentice-Hall. pppp 612.
612.
1975
1975
excellent textbook
An excellont textbook of quantitative decision-making
decision-ma.king methods for
for managers,
managers,
including linear
linear and types, inventory control,
and mathematical programming of all types,
simulation and queueing models. Does
queueing models. Does not
not assume
assume muoh
much mathematioal
mathematioal ability
ability (no
(no
oalculus
calculus or matrix algebra).

(Editor), Planning, Performanoe

H. (Editor),
Wright, H. of Growth and
Performance and Evaluation of Yield St,ul.ies.
and Yield Studies,
1980 Canmon"ealth
Commonwealth Forestry Institnte,
Institute, Oxford,
Oxford, Great
Great Britan
Brit"" (in
(in print).
print).

Collection
Collection of
of papers
papers fran
from IUFRO, Subject Group
=Rot Subject 54.01 meeting.
Group 54.01 meeting. Many useful
useful ideas.
idas.