Planeamiento Financiero

Valuación de Google, Inc.

Datos históricos

Estados financieros históricos 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016

Income Statement
Revenue 140,118,894 133,207,232 128,057,131 149,857,733 155,858,138
COGS 100,898,562 89,951,713 91,261,414 99,122,347 106,824,297
Gross Profit 39,220,332 43,255,519 36,795,717 50,735,386 49,033,841

Operating Expenses $Mil

SG&A 6,734,526 5,943,002 6,066,178 8,457,557 7,782,398
R&D 22,064,643 22,115,206 23,384,541 31,186,034 31,686,087
Other -684,571 -909,979 -866,920 -1,274,305 -3,007,435
Operating Income 11,105,734 16,107,290 8,211,918 12,366,100 12,572,791

Net Int Inc & Other -808,150 -4,385,433 -3,273,279 -3,244,604 -3,038,394
Earnings Before Taxes 10,297,584 11,721,857 4,938,639 9,121,496 9,534,397
Income Taxes 3,089,045 3,269,044 438,411 3,070,431 4,085,199
Net Income 7,208,539 8,452,813 4,500,228 6,051,065 5,449,198

Balance Sheet
Assets $Mil 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016

Cash and Equiv 2,010,153 1,518,872 699,372 971,092 815,532

Short-Term Investments
Accts Rec 26,147,690 25,461,092 25,921,206 28,712,425 34,090,113
Inventory 42,249,679 46,600,748 53,928,669 61,263,776 59,610,547
Other Current Assets 1,275,252 1,034,905 515,261 390,263 120,316
Total Current Assets 71,682,774 74,615,617 81,064,508 91,337,556 94,636,508
Net PP&E 94,418,521 92,129,052 122,384,225 130,076,340 124,932,961
Intangibles 196,967 450,964 1,741,983 1,485,491 1,449,963

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Other Long-Term Assets - - -
Total Assets 166,298,262 167,195,633 205,190,716 222,899,387 221,019,432

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Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity $Mil
Accts Payable 13,522,429 13,633,033 26,144,617 29,452,927 23,287,612
Short-Term Debt - - - - -
Taxes Payable - - - - -
Accrued Liabilities -

Other Short-Term Liabilities

Total Current Liabilities 13,522,429 13,633,033 26,144,617 29,452,927 23,287,612
Long-Term Debt 15,134,284 14,613,119 18,954,971 20,873,033 22,961,750

Other Long-Term Liabilities 34,380,918 27,236,037 24,619,573 24,690,348 22,867,126

Total Liabilities 63,037,631 55,482,189 69,719,161 75,016,308 69,116,488
Total Equity 103,260,631 111,713,444 135,471,555 147,883,079 151,902,944

Total Liabilities & Equity 166,298,262 167,195,633 205,190,716 222,899,387 221,019,432

Tasa de crecimiento de ventas

año ventas log ventas
2,012 140,118,894 8.15 m 0.0084
2,013 133,207,232 8.12 h -8.83
2,014 128,057,131 8.11
2,015 149,857,733 8.18
2,016 155,858,138 8.19 g= 2% TASA DE CRECIMIENTO
2,017 141,554,034 8.15

Ganancia Operativa / Ventas = 8% tasa de crecimiento para los próximos 6 a

Tasa impositiva marginal = 25% tasa de crecimiento a perpetu

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Planeamiento Financiero

Datos históricos Proyecciones

Estado de Resultados
2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022
Ventas 141,554,034 144,328,154 147,156,639 150,040,556 152,980,991 155,979,052
(-) Gastos Operativos 132,469,314 135,065,394 137,712,352 140,411,184 143,162,906
(=) Ganancia Operativa 11,858,840 12,091,245 12,328,204 12,569,807 12,816,145
x (1-t) = NOPAT 8,894,130 9,068,434 9,246,153 9,427,356 9,612,109

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Balance
Activos Totales 216,690,468 220,937,081 225,266,918 229,681,609 234,182,818
(-) Activos no operativos - - - - -
(-) Pasivo no financiero 21,905,032.43 22,334,319 22,772,018 23,218,295 23,673,317
(=) Capital 194,785,435 198,602,763 202,494,901 206,463,315 210,509,501

Costo de Capital

Costo del Equity, por CAPM Costo promedio ponderado, WACC

Equity
Deuda rf 4.29% Proporción
rm 8.70% Equity 78%
beta 1.15 Deuda 22%
la beta cuando es memor 1, es menor su riesgo de sector y si es mayor va ser muy elevado 100%
ks 9.36% WACC

Economic Value Added (EVA) 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017

NOPAT 8,894,130 9,068,434 9,246,153 9,427,356 9,612,109
Capital 194,785,435 198,602,763 202,494,901 206,463,315 210,509,501
ROIC 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
WACC 14.91% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9%
Capital * (ROIC - WACC) = EVA -20,154,931 -20,549,920 -20,952,649 -21,363,270 -21,781,939

# año 1 2 3 4 5
Factor de descuento 0.87 0.76 0.66 0.57 0.50
EVA * Factor de descuento = VP EVA -17,539,241 -15,562,130 -13,807,890 -12,251,396 -10,870,358
Valor económico agregado -149,691,052
(+) Capital 194,785,435
rendimiento del Capital superior al costo del Capital
(=) Valor de la empresa 45,094,384 EVA Negativo

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

NOPAT 8,894,130 9,068,434 9,246,153 9,427,356 9,612,109

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(-) Inversión Neta 3,817,327 3,892,138 3,968,414 4,046,186 4,125,481
(=) Free Cash Flow 5,076,803 5,176,296 5,277,739 5,381,170 5,486,628

Factor de descuento 0.87 0.76 0.66 0.57 0.50

FCF * Factor de descuento = VP FCF 4,417,939 3,919,927 3,478,054 3,085,990 2,738,122
Valor de la empresa 45,094,384
(-) Capital 194,785,435 Flujos negativos
alta inversión en relación a las Ganancias Operativas
(=) Valor Presente Neto -149,691,052

Estimación del valor de la acción

81,577,569
Empresa Equity
45,094,384 Equity # de acciones
-36,483,185 valor estimado 1 acción

Descomposición en value drivers (históricos)

 COGS SG & A R & D Other  V

ROIC  1     * * (1  t )
 V V V V  Capital
2,014 2,015 2,016
COGS / Ventas 71.3% 66.1% 68.5%
márgenes
SG&A / Ventas 4.7% 5.6% 5.0%
R&D / Ventas 18.3% 20.8% 20.3%
Other / Ventas -0.7% -0.9% -1.9%

Activos Totales 205,190,716 222,899,387 221,019,432

(-) Activos no operativos - - -
(-) Pasivo no financiero 26,144,617 29,452,927 23,287,612
rotaciones (=) Capital 179,046,099 193,446,460 197,731,820

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rotaciones
Ventas / Capital 71.5% 77.5% 78.8%
(1-t) 91% 66% 57%

rentabilidad ROIC 4.2% 4.2% 3.6%

Comprobación ROIC 4.2% 4.2% 3.6%

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2,017 % s/Vtas

141,554,034
99,217,755
42,336,279

7,858,578
29,504,708
-4,393,450
9,366,443 8%

-1,962,285
7,404,158
2,850,613
4,553,545

2,017 % s/Vtas

2,096,057

35,194,017
56,276,204
52,144
93,618,422 60%
195,239,879
2,683,654

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291,541,955 150%

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22,761,522 15%
-
-
-

22,761,522
43,756,790

15,059,257
81,577,569
210,144,386

291,721,955

RECIMIENTO

o para los próximos 6 años 2%

crecimiento a perpetuidad 1%

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Google Inc. (GOOG)

Perpet
159,035,867
145,968,556
13,067,311
9,800,483

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238,772,239 150%
- 0%
24,137,258 15%
214,634,982

ACC

Costo
9.36% 53,971,078 6,989,657 estado de resultados
34.81% 15,059,257 15,059,257 estado de situacion financiera
69,030,335
14.91% kd 46.41%

Perpet
9,800,483
214,634,982 216,781,332
4.6%
14.9%
-22,208,813

perpet
3.59
-79,660,037

9,800,483

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Google Inc. (GOOG)
2,146,350
7,654,134

3.59
27,454,351

53,971,078 acciones comunes

-36,483,185,277,728 21,602,650 acciones de inversion
75,573,728 75,573,728 saldo al 31 de diciembre
$ -482,749.58

2,017
70.1%
5.6%
20.8%
-3.1%

291,541,955
-
22,761,522
268,780,433

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52.7%
61%

2.1%
2.1%

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