probno exce p Tr PP 13%

0.999 0.001 1000 15.6 17.628

0.998 0.002 500 14.3 16.159
0.996 0.004 250 10.2 11.526
0.9 0.1 10 9.8 11.074

Precipitaciones (mm) Intensidades (mm/hr) 18

15 30 60 15 30 60 16
1000 4.04718829 5.493358471 7.21315434 16.1887532 10.9867169 7.21315434
14
500 3.75213472 5.092874253 6.68729125 15.0085389 10.1857485 6.68729125
12
250 3.45708115 4.692390035 6.16142815 13.8283246 9.38478007 6.16142815
10 2.08689479 2.832598922 3.7823122 8.34757917 5.66519784 3.7823122 10
8
log(I) log(Tr) log/t) 6
1.2092134 3 1.176091259 4
1.04086794 3 1.477121255
2
0.85812522 3 1.77815125
1.14076957 2.39794001 1.176091259 0
10 2
0.9724241 2.39794001 1.477121255
0.78968139 2.39794001 1.77815125
Resumen

a0 1.55639624 Estadísticas de la regresión

a1 0.11368275 Coeficiente d 0.99973495
a2 -0.5831448 Coeficiente 0.99946997
R^2 ajustado 0.99911662
K 36.0077709 Error típico 0.00479908
m 0.11368275 Observacione 6
n 0.58314484
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Id 11.3717438 mm/hr Grados de libertad
Qd m3/s Regresión 2
Residuos 3
Total 5
Tr 475 años
Coeficientes
D(min) D(hr) I(mm/hr) PP(mm) VPP Intercepción 1.55639624
5 0.08333333 28.3850314 2.365419286 2.36541929 Variable X 1 0.11368275
10 0.16666667 18.947211 3.157868497 0.79244921 Variable X 2 -0.5831448
15 0.25 14.9574852 3.739371304 0.58150281
20 0.33333333 12.6473985 4.215799502 0.4764282
25 0.41666667 11.1042346 4.626764421 0.41096492
30 0.5 9.98422809 4.992114046 0.36534963 Análisis de los residuales
 Observación
Pronóstico para Y
D(min) VPP I(mm/hr) Q(m3/s) 1 1.21161294
5 0.41096492 11.1042346 64.82652165 2 1.03606885
10 0.58150281 14.9574852 87.3217987 3 0.86052477
15 2.36541929 28.3850314 165.7118135 4 1.14316911
20 0.79244921 18.947211 110.6138177 5 0.96762502
25 0.4764282 12.6473985 73.83551247 6 0.79208093
30 0.36534963 9.98422809 58.2879236
 IDF

Metodo de Bell

Chart Title
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
0.13028975 0.06514487 2828.55057 1.2202E-05
6.9094E-05 2.3031E-05
0.13035884

Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
0.02123755 73.285097 5.5993E-06 1.48880886 1.62398361 1.48880886 1.62398361
0.00650838 17.467141 0.00040898 0.09297019 0.13439531 0.09297019 0.13439531
0.0079711 -73.157366 5.6287E-06 -0.6085124 -0.5577772 -0.6085124 -0.5577772
 Chart Title
180
160
Residuos 140
-0.0023995 120
0.00479908
100
-0.0023995
80
-0.0023995
0.00479908 60

-0.0023995 40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
 Metodo Bell

Registros PP Tr P OMM Preciptaciones (mm)

PP
Años (mm) años probabilidad Dist. Normal (normal) Gumbel PP(gumbel) 13% 10
2010 48 5 0.2 0.8 0.8416212336 51.25 0.719457416 51.04 57.68 6.3785
2011 50.1 10 0.1 0.9 1.2815515655 51.5 1.304563213 52.52 59.35 7.4288
2012 52.3 100 0.01 0.99 2.326347874 51.73 3.136680644 57.15 64.58 10.918
2013 46.5 500 0.002 0.998 2.8781617391 51.75 4.394688714 60.33 68.17 13.357

Xprom 49.225
s 2.5264
Metodo Bell

Preciptaciones (mm) Intensidad (mm/hr)

30 60 10 30 60
10.585 13.8983 38.2707 21.1692 13.8983 Y X1 X2
12.328 16.4607 44.5726 24.655 16.4607 Log(I) Log(T) Log(t)
18.117 23.7893 65.5069 36.2347 23.7893 1.5828666381 0.6989700043 1
22.164 29.1032 80.1393 44.3285 29.1032 1.3257044592 0.6989700043 1.4771212547
1.1429617483 0.6989700043 1.7781512504
1.6490676702 1 1
I 64.4917 1.3919054913 1 1.4771212547
C 0.86 1.2164477833 1 1.7781512504
A 2.54 1.8162867732 2 1
1.5591245942 2 1.4771212547
Q 39.1635 m3/s 1.3763818834 2 1.7781512504
1.903845538 2.6989700043 1
1.6466833591 2.6989700043 1.4771212547
1.4639406482 2.6989700043 1.7781512504

a0 2.0464779587
a1 0.1595760044
a2 -0.5607979287

K 111.29559067
m 0.1595760044
n 0.5607979287
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 0.998364849
Coeficiente d 0.996732373
R^2 ajustado 0.996006233
Error típico 0.014552366
Observaciones 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 0.58137416 0.29068708 1372.645966 6.51698E-12
Residuos 9 0.001905942 0.000211771
Total 11 0.583280102

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 2.046477959 0.020848876 98.15771233 5.99642E-15 1.999314525 2.093641393 1.999314525
Variable X 1 0.159576004 0.005272192 30.26748545 2.29464E-10 0.147649477 0.171502532 0.147649477
Variable X 2 -0.56079793 0.01311231 -42.7688117 1.04233E-11 -0.59046004 -0.53113582 -0.59046004
Análisis de los residuales

ObservaciónPronóstico para Y Residuos

1 1.597218871 -0.01435223
2 1.329650259 -0.0039458
3 1.160833261 -0.01787151
4 1.645256034 0.003811636
5 1.377687423 0.014218068
6 1.208870425 0.007577358
7 1.804832039 0.011454734
8 1.537263427 0.021861167
9 1.368446429 0.007935454
10 1.916370879 -0.01252534
11 1.648802268 -0.00211891
12 1.47998527 -0.01604462
Superior 95.0%
2.093641393
0.171502532
-0.53113582
 Metodo Bell

Registros PP Tr P OMM
PP
Años (mm) años probabilidad Dist. Normal (normal) Gumbel PP(gumbel) 13%
2011 10.75 300 0.003333333 0.9967 2.7130518885 15.92 3.995878654 23.24 26.26
2012 16.06 200 0.005 0.995 2.5758293035 15.92 3.679086794 22.47 25.39
2013 14.31 100 0.01 0.99 2.326347874 15.9 3.136680644 21.15 23.90
2014 11.05 50 0.02 0.98 2.0537489106 15.88 2.592288097 19.82 22.40
2015 15.26 25 0.04 0.96 1.7506860713 15.83 2.043845939 18.48 20.88

Xprom 13.485 Y X1 X2 I 17.930425921

s 2.4424 Log(I) Log(T) Log(t) C 0.6
1.480544964 2.4771 1 A 0.3
1.223382785 2.4771 1.4771212547 Q 0.8972385131 m3/s
1.040640074 2.4771 1.7781512504
1.458803581 2.301 1
1.201641402 2.301 1.4771212547 a0 1.68071121
1.018898691 2.301 1.7781512504 a1 0.1595144248
1.418913244 2 1 a2 -0.5786098147
1.161751065 2 1.4771212547
0.979008354 2 1.7781512504 K 47.941454946
1.374984927 1.699 1 m 0.1595144248
1.117822748 1.699 1.4771212547 n 0.5786098147
0.935080037 1.699 1.7781512504
1.32610809 1.3979 1
1.068945911 1.3979 1.4771212547
0.819074254 1.3979 1.7781512504
 n
Metodo Bell L
S
Preciptaciones (mm) Intensidad (mm/hr) A

10 30 60 10 30 60 tc
5.0396 8.3628 10.981 30.2374 16.7256 10.981 tr
4.7935 7.9545 10.4448 28.761 15.9089 10.4448
4.3728 7.2564 9.52814 26.2369 14.5128 9.52814
3.9522 6.5583 8.61152 23.7129 13.1166 8.61152
3.5315 5.8602 6.59287 21.1889 11.7205 6.59287

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficie 0.9957
Coeficie 0.9915
R^2 aju 0.99
Error típ 0.0203
Observa 15

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de Suma
libertad
de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresió 2 0.574097571 0.287048785 696.3740319 3.88595E-13
Residuo 12 0.004946459 0.000412205
Total 14 0.579044029

CoeficientesError típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercep 1.6807 0.035549656 47.27784765 5.24266E-15 1.603255164
Variable 0.1595 0.013373599 11.92756127 5.17329E-08 0.130375855
Variable-0.5786 0.016362407 -35.3621457 1.67042E-13 -0.61426044
 Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico paraResiduos
Y
1 1.4972 -0.016693
2 1.2212 0.002211859
3 1.047 -0.00635194
4 1.4691 -0.01034529
5 1.1931 0.008559571
6 1.0189 -4.22991E-06
7 1.4211 -0.002217
8 1.1451 0.016687861
9 0.9709 0.00812406
10 1.3731 0.001873308
11 1.097 0.02077817
12 0.9229 0.012214369
13 1.3251 0.001015098
14 1.049 0.01991996
15 0.8748 -0.05577279
 50
5592
0.294
0.3

24.623114736
234

or crítico de F

Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

1.758167256 1.603255164 1.758167256
0.188652995 0.130375855 0.188652995
-0.54295919 -0.61426044 -0.54295919