Professional Documents
Culture Documents
20 March 2013
Agenda
2
Section 1
Overview
3
EU refining as an essential piece of the “oil value chain”
Source: JBC
4
New crude productions need EU refineries as a reliable output
• Crude oil production is expected to grow remarkably in the coming years (Iraq, Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan,
etc.), and these crude oils have a natural elective market: Europe and the Mediterranean Sea
• NOCs in those regions are well aware of the above trends, and they are looking with interest at the
European downstream sector, in order to secure reliable outputs for their growing production
Kazakhstan
Russia
Source: Argus
7
Market Volatility as challenge but also a source of opportunities
• The roles of crude oil producers, traders and refiners are evolving: the large swings in prices, volatility and demand trends
require a proactive presence on the markets, balancing physical activities with trading opportunities
• Refiners can leverage on their natural “long” exposure to product crack spreads, creating additional value by trading around
hedging positions
• It becomes necessary to have a comprehensive perspective on margin evolution and its fundamentals
Source: Platts
8
Size and Complexity as key competitive advantages
• Further consolidation in the EU refining sector is expected, and this will increase the differential between simple refining
configuration and highly complex and efficient players. Thanks to its ideal configuration, size, complexity and flexibility,
Saras demonstrated that its refinery can regularly over-perform the market, even in the most difficult scenarios
• As a matter of fact, Saras refinery is unique: taking into consideration that building new refineries is impossible in Europe,
Saras geographic location and its characteristics make it a very interesting partner for large crude oil producers (be it
Russian, FSU, Middle Eastern, African, etc.)
3rd Highest Nelson Complexity Index (9.2) among large EU refiners (i.e. distillation capacity > 200kbd)
9
Section 2
10
Overview of Saras Businesses
1 2 3 4 5
Supply & Trading,
Refining Power Generation Wind Energy Other Activities
Marketing
• One of the largest • The largest liquid • ~150 crude • Wind farm with • Presence in
high complexity fuel gasification cargoes supplied capacity of 96 MW industrial
refineries in the plant in the world every year from in Ulassai engineering
Mediterranean (IGCC) wide range of crude (Sardinia) services for the
Sea • 575 MW of sources oil sector
• Pipeline for
• 300k barrels per installed power - • Marketing activities additional 200 MW – Environmental
day of refining conversion of in Italy and Spain wind parks monitoring and
capacity (about heavy refining • 11% wholesale protection,
residues into clean – Full authorisation
15% of Italy’s market share in industrial
gas for wind park of
refining capacity) Italy, 8% wholesale efficiency (Sartec,
97.5 MW in
• Electricity market share in 151 employees)
• 250 kb/d FCC production of Spain Romania (permit
equivalent capacity approximately upgrade to • Gas exploration
• 114 retail stations 120MW in activities
• More than 80% of 4.3 - 4.4 TWh in Spain
production is of progress) – Two site permits
• Attractive • Balanced and
medium and light regulated tariff for exploration
differentiated
distillates until 2021 in Sardinia
portfolio on sales,
not only a FOB (Eleonora
player and Igia)
11
Operating Model
Inventory
12
Commercially Driven Approach to Exploit Asset Potential
13
Adapting to Changing Environment Across the Value Chain
-
• Three different
• FOB cargo market
conversion cycles
• DEL cargo market
Today • Crude slate flexibility • Commercially driven
Complexity level
• Saras integrated
runs
downstream system
• Inventory management
+ + +
14
Main Product Outflow Routes from Saras Refinery
Inland Sardinia
Market via
Truck:
~1.1 MM ton IV
1.4 MM ton
Power -0.9 MM ton
to grid IIb
IIIa IIIb
Italian system FOB sales Trading to
Cargo to Saras FOB &
1.5 MM ton 6.4 MM ton optimise
Wholesale / Delivered
Spanish system (1) Retail System Cargo DEL sales portfolio
0.7 MM ton ~2.2 MM ton Market 3.0 MM ton 0.4 MM ton
~9.4 MM ton
Visco
Sigemi
Decal
Ravenna
Total sales
Arcola
1.6 MM ton
Livorno
Local
Supply Civitav.
Barcelona
0.9
Palma Torre
Cartagena
16
2015 Supply & Demand in Italy
E
B Tuscany B E Adriatic Coast
0,5 0 -0.6
0.4 -1
0,0 Mt -2.4
Mt -0,5 -0.9 C -2
-1,0 -3
Gasoil Gasoline F Gasoil Gasoline
C Lazio F Campania
0 0
-1.1 --0.5
-3.6 Mt -1 -1.8
Mt -2
Oil Refinery -2
-4
Gasoil Gasoline Third party Oil Depots Gasoil Gasoline
From Own & Third-party Depots, Saras can ideally exploit domestic imbalances
17
2015 Supply & Demand Europe
Middle East (Turkey in particular), North Africa and C&EE have a Source: Wood Mackenzie
kb/d
kb/d
Saras central position in MED is ideal to supply North Africa & Middle East
18
Section 3
19
Saras Group Business Plan 2013 – 2017
1. “Pro-forma” means that turnarounds’ effects have been annualised on a linear basis in the business plan horizon, both in terms of maintenance costs and reduced production
20
Business Plan Scenario – Brent Price
79.5
72.6
65.4
61.5
50
0
2006
2006 2007
2007 2008
2008 2009
2009 2010
2010 2011
2011 2012
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1. Real 2012 21
Business Plan Scenario – Refinery (I / III)
22
Business Plan Scenario – Refinery (II / III)
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
23
Business Plan Scenario – Refinery (III / III)
Average 2007-
• Maintenance and HSE Capex 200.0 94.7 2012 capex for
179.3 HSE and to
amounts to €80 MM(1) per annum 167.7 maintain capacity Completion of MHC2
from 2013 to 2017 (on average) revamping
equal to €95 MM
150.0 32.0 51.1
1. Real 2013 24
Business Plan Scenario – IGCC (I / II)
50
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CIP6 Nominal CIP6 Real(1)
1. Real 2012 25
Business Plan Scenario – IGCC (II / II)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1. Real 2013 26
Business Plan Scenario – Marketing, Wind and Gas Exploration
Marketing:
• Italy: EBITDA improvements due to Project Focus initiatives (e.g. entry to bunkering market)
• Spain: Saras will continue to implement cost reduction initiatives, as well as the rationalisation of its client portfolio and of the
working capital. Moreover, during 2013 the Group will complete the restructuring programme started towards the end of 2012,
with the objective to achieve structural improvements to EBITDA of approx. €10 MM per year
Wind:
• Limited capital expenditure on the wind business during the business plan horizon. Various monetisation alternatives are
currently under review, in particular with regards to new projects in the pipeline.
Gas Exploration:
• the Group presented in mid March 2013 the Environmental Assessment Procedure (V.I.A.), which stems from the permitting
procedure required to start drilling activities in an area located in Sardinia (“Eleonora” project). According to geological
estimates, it is expected to achieve an annual production of 70 up to 170 million cubic meters of natural gas, for a production
period of more than 20 years.
27
Overview of New Initiatives Included in the Business Plan
2
19 Crude Trading 3 5 5
4 Bunker 1 3 3
5 Wholesale 1 1 2
6 Direct Inflows
Efficiency
4 7 7
Energy
7 EE Incentives 2 5 5
8 EE Investments 4 10 10
9 Alkylation 4 7 7
Product Yield
10 Gasoline Density 3 3 3
11 ZSM5 FCC 2 5 5
12 Gasoline HDS 1 2 2
13 Outlet Flow-metres 2 2 2
14 Slurry Filter - - 4
30 57 62
28
“Pro-forma” Consolidated Economics
• Group EBITDA
increases by approx.
Comparable EBITDA(1)
~€185 MM from 2013 to € MM
2015, of which ~€175 750 591 614
502 583
MM from refining 600 399
segment (IGCC EBITDA 450
reported is assumed flat) 300
150
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
• Group EBITDA remains
flat from 2015 to 2017
(+€34 MM on a nominal
basis) driven by
constant EMC refining
margins
Capex
• Working Capital will be
rather volatile, as usual, € MM
due also to possible 160 101
126 97 99 103
changes in commodity 120
prices 80
40
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
30
Saras Launched the Operational Excellence Program 3 Years Ago
31
Three Main Areas of Impact of Current Initiatives
32
Initiative Examples: Reduction of Flare Losses and Fixed Costs
250
4 32 30
0,3
200
Run Rate Flare
Losses: 0.09% of 237 229 236
212 219 221
0,2 150 186
Total Processing
0,37
0,34
100
0,1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0,19
Base growth (inflation from 2006 figures)
0,10 0,10 0,09
0,07 Savings (Focus)
0,0 Fixed Costs (Annual Report)
Baseline 2010 1H 2010 2H 2011 1H 2011 2H 2012 1H 2012 2H
>2010
Economic Impact: ~€13MM Saving per year Impact of cost saving initiatives offsets 6
(~40kton Fuel Gas Recovery) years of inflation
33
Initiative Examples: Reduction of Oil Inventories
-132kt
kton
(-€100 MM)
1.500 1.382
71 1.250
1.200 76
520
454
900
600 312
327
300
479 393
0
Avg 2011 Avg 2012
Crude Oils Intermediates Finished Products Others
34
New Focus Initiatives Planned in 2012 Currently Being Implemented
Have approx. €60-€80 MM/y EBITDA Impact Target by 2015
1
DFT
Volatility trading strategy on crack forward curves
(Dynamic
• Trading of short paper positions exploiting refinery long position as 5-8
Forward
natural hedge
Trading)
2
Crude trading to exploit crude differential volatility
Crude
• Increased presence on crude market and visibility on forward netback 5-9
Trading
• Fully exploit production flexibility of the refinery
3
Utilise storage capacity – became available through inventory
optimisation initiative – to take advantage of contango (and
(Reverse)
backwardation) play 2-4
Cash & Carry
• Value extraction from forward price curves
• Leveraging on availability of logistics / tanks in refinery / depots
~12 – 21
Additional Resources and Capabilities are Required to Support the Current Organisation
in Order to Achieve Full Potential Benefits
1. EBITDA improvement by 2015
36
Commercial Business Development: ~€5 – €6 MM/y Incremental EBITDA
to be Achieved Through Bunker and Wholesale Growth
Benefits(1)
(€ MM/y)
4
Entry to the bunker segment with the purchase, blending and
servicing of bunker oil from Saras logistic sites
Bunker 3-4
• Partnership on Arcola and production and delivery integration with
Sarroch
~5 – 6
Benefits(1)
(€ MM/y)
6
Maximisation of Direct Inflows Between Units to Reduce Fuel
Direct Inflows Consumption 7-9
• Review of operational processes and debottlenecking
Optimisation of EE Incentives
EE Incentives ~5
• Review of current practices, identification of new opportunities
8
Completion of initiative started in 2012 and launch of further small
EE investments in 2013
10 - 12
Investments • Reducing refinery energy consumption and restoring steam optimal
balance
~22 – 26
Benefits(1)
(€ MM/y)
9
Optimisation of alkylation unit
Alkylation ~7
• to exploit high alkylate – butane differential
10 Gasoline
Reduction of gasoline density
Density 3-4
• through optimisation of use of C4 blending
(C4 blending)
13 Outlet
Change in outlet flow-meters calibration policy 2-3
Flow-Metres
~23 – 29
40
Energy Saving FCC Initiatives – Overview
Risks Analysis • Economics dependant on differential between fuel and electricity costs
10
EBITDA
Capex
-30 €65 MM
-15
-20 Capex
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
€ MM 28
Discounted
Payback =
12 12 12 13
Free Cash
6.5 years
Flow
-8
-14
-20
42
Other Investment Options: Visbreaking and Steam Reformer
An improvement in current differential between heavy and light crudes could make
investments that increase refinery flexibility to process heavy crudes an attractive
opportunity
43
Assessment of Long Term Value Creation with IGCC
1-2 trains devoted to Usage of LS crude oil to 1-2 trains can co-process
Hydrogen production and produce Low Sulphur Fuel different types of
power supply to Sarroch Oil… feedstock...
site...
… exploiting narrow “LSFO- ... such as biomass and
... allowing a step Crude oil” differentials waste (together with TAR)
improvement of energy
efficiency of the site with a In this option, 1 IGCC train
limited investment should be shut down, without
any relevant investment
44
IGCC plant allows Saras to take advantage of Mid-Term scenario for HSFO
• The value of TAR is a function of its viscosity, the price of GO, and the price of HSFO
Ratio HSFO/GO [%]
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20 07 2008 2009 2010 20 11 2012
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Section 6
Disclaimer
46
Disclaimer
47