11/17/2018

Order and Disorder in the South

China Sea: Recap and Forward

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Session 8
10th South China Sea International Conference
sponsored by Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Foundation
for East Sea Studies and the Vietnam Lawyers’ Association
Da Nang, Viet Nam, November 7-9, 2018

Outline

1. Order in the South China Sea

2. Disorder in the South China Sea
3. Transformation – Looking back
4. Anarchical society – looking forward
5. What is to be done?

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1. Order in the South China Sea

• ASEAN-centric order
– ASEAN Charter
– ASEAN Community
• Political-Security, Economic, Socio-Cultural
– DOC and COC ASEAN members and China
• ASEAN Ministerial Meetings
• ASEAN Summit
• ASEAN Regional Forum
• East Asia Summit – leaders’ retreat

2. Disorder in the South China Sea

• Unilateral imposition of annual fishing bans
• Nine-dash line and historic rights
• Pressures on oil exploration activities
– Cable cutting
– Hai Yang Shi You 981
– Repsol 1 and Repsol 2
• Militarization
• Arbitral Tribunal Award in limbo

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3. Transformation – Looking back

• From unipolarity
– U.S. hub and spokes alliance system
• To multipolarity
– China, Japan, India
– Rise of middle powers
• South Korea, Australia, Indonesia
• Shifting military balance of power

China
• Economic rise
• Expanding military reach - A2AD
– Naval base on Hainan island
– SSN and SSBN – the nuclear dimension
• Political engagement with ASEAN
– Free trade agreement
– Strategic partnership
• Dominance over Southeast Asia

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United States – Obama Administration

• Rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific

• Engagement with ASEAN-centric institutions
– ASEAN Secretariat - Ambassador accredited
– ASEAN-U.S. leaders meetings
– ASEAN Regional Forum
– ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus
– Lower Mekong Initiative
– Trans Pacific Partnership
– East Asia Summit

4. Looking Forward: Anarchical Society

Theoretical Framework
• “when a group of states, conscious of certain
common interests and common values, form a
society… [and] conceive themselves to be bound
by a common set of rules in their relations with
one another, and share in the working of
common institutions.”
– Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order
in World Politics (1977)
• Global political system – weak world government,
no monopoly on use of force

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World Order and

the Global Political System
Balance of
Power

International
Great Powers
Law

War Diplomacy

5. What is to be done?
ASEAN’s Vision
• Southeast Asia and its surroundings remain a peaceful,
stable and secure region;
• Uphold the UN Charter, ASEAN Charter, TAC, ZOPFAN,
Declaration of the East Asia Summit of the Principles for
Mutually Beneficial Relations; which shall serve as the basic
norms governing friendly relations and cooperation among
states;
• exercise self-restraint and refrain from activities that might
raise tension in the region; and
• enhance our unity, solidarity and centrality and call on
other states to respect ASEAN’s norms and principles
– ASEAN Joint Statement on Peace, Security and Stability in the
Region 2016

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Conclusion
• China’s rejection of UNCLOS compulsory
dispute settlement mechanism has
undermined the role of international law in
shaping global order
• Realpolitik, balance of power, major powers
will play greater role in regional order
• Strategic rivalry is threat to ASEAN’s centrality
and regional autonomy

Order and Disorder in the South

China Sea: Recap and Forward

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Session 8
10th South China Sea International Conference
sponsored by Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Foundation
for East Sea Studies and the Vietnam Lawyers’ Association
Da Nang, Viet Nam, November 7-9, 2018

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