You are on page 1of 28

SecuoS

Availability and Reliability


Abu Dhabi, 2-3 November 2014

web site: www.securityofsupply.com


email: hans@secuos.com
telephone: +971 1890 651

www.securityofsupply.com
Agenda

• Basic concepts
- Reliability
- Availability
• Exercises

www.securityofsupply.com
Reliability

Reliability is the probability that an equipment item is


working.

Say that the reliability of a pump is 90%.


If I walk in on it every morning, then I expect it to be
working 9 out of 10 times.

www.securityofsupply.com
MTTF and MTTR estimation

N MTTF = Mean Time To Failure


Xi
MTTF= ∑ MTTR = Mean Time To Repair
1 N
N MTBF = Mean Time Between Failures
Yi
MTTR= ∑
1 N
MTBF = MTTF + MTTR

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 1

The log for pump P2501A shows that


- in one year 10 unplanned repairs were done,
- taking 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 12, 16, 24, 24 and 72 hours.

Compute its MTTF and MTTR.

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 1 - Solution

The log for pump P2501A shows that in one year 10


unplanned repairs were needed, taking 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 12,
16, 24, 24 and 72 hours.

In that year the average repair time of pump P2501A was:


MTTR = (1+2+ …. + 72) /10 = 17 hours.
Its average run time was:
MTTF = (8766 – 170) / 10 = 860 hours.

www.securityofsupply.com
Items in series - Example
Consider three items with reliability 92%, 99% and 90%,
in series:

Then, the reliability R of the series is:

R = 92% * 99% * 90% = 82%.

Key: it is assumed that failures are mutually independent.

www.securityofsupply.com
Serial systems

...

The reliability of the series is:

R = R1 * R2 * ... * Rn

www.securityofsupply.com
Parallel systems - Example

Consider two pumps arranged in


parallel, each with 100% capacity.
Assume that the reliability of one pump
is 90%.

What is the reliability of the parallel


system?

www.securityofsupply.com
Parallel systems - in detail

pump1 pump2 probability


up up 0.90 * 0.90 = 0.81
up down 0.90 * 0.10 = 0.09
down up 0.10 * 0.90 = 0.09
down down 0.10 * 0.10 = 0.01

If pump1 or pump2 works, the system works. Hence,


the reliability of the system
R = 1 – 0.01 = 0.99.

Adding redundant capacity increases reliability!

www.securityofsupply.com
Parallel systems
Consider n parallel units, each with the same capacity:

The reliability of the system is given by:


R = 1 - [(1-R1) x (1-R2) x ... x (1-Rn)]

www.securityofsupply.com
Complex systems

One piece of equipment has only 2 states: it works or it


doesn’t. But a plant may operate at many intermediate
capacity levels.

So how do we
handle the
reliability and of
a complex
system?

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 2, Available Capacity
Compressor K1101 is known to have on average
12 failures per year, repair takes 81 hours.
Compare three 33.3 % compressors that are
installed in parallel, with one single compressor of
100 % capacity.
MANUAL METHODOLOGY
1 - calculate the unit reliability
2 - draw the diagram
3 - tabulate possible states

QUESTIONS
a. What is the Available Capacity?
b. What time fraction at full capacity?
13

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 2, Available Capacity

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 2, Available Capacity

Comparison
In both cases, the Effective Capacity = 90%, but the
Available Capacity is very different. With 3 x 33%:

the time at zero capacity is reduced substantially
from 10% to 0.1% and

the time at full capacity is reduced from 90% to
72.9%, that is from 329 to 266 days/year.

www.securityofsupply.com
Effective Capacity

The Effective Capacity (EC) is the expected available


capacity. That is, the average capacity that is available
over time.

It's a summary number and equates 1 day @ 50%


capacity to 0.5 day @ 100% capacity.

EC = Σi (capacity level)i * (fraction of time @ level)i

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

The Contracts Manager wishes to know if a Sales Agreement


can be negotiated based on an Effective Capacity of 98%
•Is the proposed 3 x 33.3% system acceptable?
•If not what else can you recommend?

17

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 3, Example

Suppose the compressors have 2 x 60% capacity

Capacity Fraction of time EC contribution


100 % 0.81 81.0%
60 % 0.18 10.8%
0 % 0.01 0.0%

Effective Capacity = 100 * 0.81 + 60 * 0.18 = 91.8%


= Sum i:: capacity.i * fraction.i.
18

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

The Contracts Manager wishes to know if a Sales


Agreement can be negotiated based on an Effective
Capacity (EC) of 98%.

Is the proposed 3 x 33.3% system acceptable?


Effective Capacity = 90%, hence not.

What else can you recommend? Increase redundancy:



2 x 100%,

3 x 50%,

4 x 33.3%

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

Option 1: 2 x 100% compressors


EC = 1 – (1 - 0.90) * (1 - 0.90) = 99%

Option 2: 3 x 50% compressors


EC = 0.729 + 3 * 0.081 + 3 * 0.009 * 0.5 = 98.6%

Option 3: 4 x 33.3% compressors


EC = 98.1%

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 3, Effective Capacity

Comments:
The Effective Capacity of alternatives 1x100%, 2x50%,
3x33%, 4x25% is the same.

However:
• Restart times may differ for different levels of reduced
production (compare restart time from 75% production to
restart from 0%).
• Your contract may put a higher penalty on a drop to 0%,
than on a drop to 50%.

www.securityofsupply.com
Availability

So far, it was all about Reliability.

Availability takes into account all Reliability factors


and in addition it includes the planned downtime. All
planned downtime has a fixed calendar basis but the
downtime duration might have uncertainty.

Outside periods of planned maintenance, Availability


and Reliability are the same thing.

www.securityofsupply.com
Availability - Definition (ISO 14224)

“Ability of an item to perform a required function


under given conditions over a given time interval,
assuming that the required external resources are
provided.”

This needs to consider system configuration,


capacity and planned and unplanned down time.

23

www.securityofsupply.com
Availability – Definition details
TOTAL TIME

OPERATING NOT OPERATING

[OP]
OPERABLE NOT OPERABLE

[S/B]
AVAILABLE UNAVAILABLE

BREAKDOWN MAINT.

[B/D]
PREVENTIVE MAINT.

S/B is Hot Standby [PM]

OP + S/B
Availability =
OP + S/B + PM + B/D

Reliability = MTTF Reliability = OP + S/B


MTTF + MTTR OP + S/B + B/D
OP
Utilisation =
Total Time
www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 4
New pump started at 00.00 hrs. on 1st November

runs for 72 hrs, then breaks down

re-instatement takes 36 hrs

pump restarted and runs satisfactorily

a. What is the availability of the pump?


b. What is its availability in November?

Same pump, except:


Pump shut down for 72 hrs commencing 20 November
for operational reasons (tanks full).

c. What is the availability of the pump in November?

www.securityofsupply.com
Exercise 4

a.) Insufficient information, the Availability must


relate to a known period.
b) Availability = (30 – 1.5) / 30 = 0.95.
c) It is 0.95, standby time is included in availability.

www.securityofsupply.com
Reliability, Availability & Utilisation

Reliability: describes steady state operation

Availability: is only defined for a given time interval

Utilisation: depends on supply, demand and storage

27

www.securityofsupply.com
Availability and Reliability
Availability and Reliability are fractions of capacities, they
are not linear with time
– do Not take time-weighted averages when the
maximum capacities change
– instead, with
• time periods t0 and t1
• maximum capacities c0 and c1
• availabilities a0 and a1
the availability a on the full interval t0 + t1 is:

t0 * a0 * c0 + t1 * a1 * c1
a= ---------------------------------
t0 * c0 + t1 * c1
www.securityofsupply.com