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BONJOUR’S A PRIORI
JUSTIFICATION OF
INDUCTION
ANTHONY BRUECKNER
1. Preliminaries
1 Publishers Ltd.
© 2001 University of Southern California and Blackwell
2 PACIFIC PHILOSOPHICAL QUARTERLY
(JI) Inductive inference is justified, in the sense that the truth of an inductive premise
renders the appropriate conclusion likely to be true.
BonJour agrees with Hume that PI is not knowable a priori. Thus, one
cannot add, with a priori justification, PI as a premise to some particular
inductive argument, thereby turning it into a deduction. BonJour also
agrees with Hume that no inductive justification of induction will work.
So how can BonJour claim to avoid Hume’s skeptical dilemma?
BonJour is not entirely clear on this question. Let us first note that one
can fairly grasp the demonstrative reasoning horn of the dilemma without
claiming a prioricity for PI and thereby attempting to turn induction into
deduction. The main idea here is that the problem of induction, as we are
now conceiving it, is metajustificatory in character. Thus one might well
(I-1) It is highly likely that there exists some explanation (other than chance) for the truth
of a standard inductive premise.
Such a premise has the canonical form given above and meets the follow-
ing requirement on its evidential basis: “. . . the observed proportion of
As and Bs, rather than varying irregularly over the range of possible
values, converges over time to the fraction m/n and thereafter remains at
least approximately constant as significant numbers of new observations
come in”. [207] According to BonJour, “once general prejudices about a
priori knowledge have been defused, the a priori status of I-1 seems
sufficiently obvious to require little discussion”. [208] Even granting that
BonJour’s book has served to defend a robust notion of genuine a priori
knowledge, the alleged a prioricity of I-1, as we shall see later, will re-
quire some further discussion.
Now suppose that we have some particular standard inductive premise
(1) m/n things that are both a’s and c’s are b’s.
(2) q/n things that are both a’s and non-c’s are b’s.
(3) r/n a’s are b’s.
3. Problems
(*) A[Pr(There is some correct explanation for the truth of a standard inductive premise) ].
BonJour’s chief claim in the second stage of his defense can be repres-
ented as
(**) A[Pr(If e is the correct explanation for the truth of a standard inductive premise, then
e is a straight inductive explanation) ].
(***) A[Pr(There is some correct, straight inductive explanation for the truth of a stand-
ard inductive premise) ].
(JI) Inductive inference is justified, in the sense that the truth of an inductive premise
renders the appropriate conclusion likely to be true.
But now it appears that we have something like a recipe for turning
individual inductive inferences into deductions, contrary to BonJour’s
intention as described above. For any such inference, there will be an a
priori argument involving *, **, and *** for the thesis that it is likely that
the inductive inference’s conclusion is true. This is not quite the same
thing as turning induction into deduction, however, since the BonJour-
style a priori argument does not yield the unvarnished thesis that the
given inference’s conclusion is true simpliciter.
A related point concerns the question whether BonJour is committed
to the possibility of a priori knowledge of
and
Prob(C & P) = O.
The premise makes the conclusion highly likely, it might be said, even if
the conclusion turns out to be false. The trouble here is that it is plausible
to suppose that the premise makes the conclusion highly likely only if we
build in the idealizing assumption that the coin is fair, so that heads and
tails are equiprobable outcomes. But then it is not clear that the coin
tossing inference is analogous to real world inductive inferences, in which
no parallel idealizing assumptions, inducing a space of probabilities, can
figure.
Let us return to I-1. As noted earlier, BonJour thinks that I-1 is
unproblematic, so long as one is open to the possibility of substantive a
priori knowledge. But surely some further discussion is desirable. Why
suppose that we can know a priori that it is likely that there is some
correct explanation for every true inductive premise? The only apparent
basis for such a claim would be some probabilistically qualified principle
of sufficient reason, according to which we know a priori that
For each contingent truth t, it is highly likely that there is some correct explanation for t.
(#) m/n a’s are b’s during the period of time in which the observations supporting P
occurred.
This explanation clearly falls far short of the desired inductive conclusion
C, since it allows that substantially less than m/n a’s are b’s during the
time after the observations are made.
BonJour responds as follows:
The central point is that the objective regularity that is invoked by the straight inductive
explanation must be conceived as something significantly stronger than a mere Humean
constant conjunction, and in particular as involving by its very nature a substantial propen-
sity to persist into the future. This propensity need not, I think, be so strong as to rule out
any possibility that “the course of nature might change”, but it must be sufficient to make
such a change seriously unlikely. [214]
The justification for conceiving the regularity in this way is that anything less than this will
not really explain why the inductive evidence occurred in the first place: the assertion of a
Humean constant conjunction amounts to just a restatement and generalization of the
Thus, not surprisingly, a solution to the problem of induction depends on the tenability of
a non-Humean, metaphysically robust conception of objective regularity (or objective
necessary connection). Of course, the proper explication of such a conception is notoriously
problematic, but the difficulties involved do not seem to me to be insurmountable. Here I
can only insist that such a conception is intuitively quite plausible and also seems to provide
the only alternative to skepticism. [214–5]
4. Conclusion
(JI) Inductive inference is justified, in the sense that the truth of an inductive premise
renders the appropriate conclusion likely to be true
(C) The only source of justification for a belief is its coherence with the other members of
the pertinent belief system.
University of California
Santa Barbara
NOTES
1
See chapter 7 of his In Defense of Pure Reason: A Rationalist Account of A Priori
Justification (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998). All page references in the text
are to this book.
2 This is not found in BonJour.
3
On BonJour’s usage of “explanation”, then, e can constitute an explanation for P even
if e is false. I will follow this usage. When it is appropriate, I will speak of a correct explana-
tion, in order to stress that the explanatory proposition in question is true.
4 See chapter 7 of Richard Fumerton’s Metaepistemology and Skepticism (Lanham, Mary-
land: Rowman and Littleton Publishers, Inc., 1995) for an excellent discussion of some
related issues concerning the allegedly a priori status of probabilistic principles linking
propositions about sense-experience with propositions about the external world.
5 See P. F. Strawson’s Introduction to Logical Theory (London: Methuen, 1952).
7 See my critical study of BonJour’s book in Nous (September, 2000) for further discussion
of this point.