Reliability : A step towards

Business Excellence
Using Minitab 16
Reliability : A step towards
Business Excellence

By Rajeev Chadha, P.Eng.

Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt
Mosaic Potash ULC Canada

In association with Minitab 16

 Module Overview

•Definition of Reliability
•Impact to the business
•Data distribution characteristics
•Exercises
•Break
•Compressor Case Study

A♦ - Minitab is a powerful tool for

reliability/survival analysis!
How Do You Define Reliability?

The probability that an item (or system) will

perform its intended function for a given
period of time under a given set of conditions

Or
Achieving expected performance
Where can you use Reliability
Analysis
For consideration
–Pumps and Process Equipments
–Entire Manufacturing processes
–Customer invoicing & Services
–Month end Accounts closing
– Laptop computers
–Deep well blow out preventer
A♦ - Reliability is not just for
maintenance
Reliability – Why Do We Care ?
How Does Reliability Works?

Bottom line dollars

Most of the North American Blue chip Companies

non capital spending for turnaround, R&M, CL, and
internal labor are:-
• FY11 - $349 MM for Energy Sector
• FY11 – $189MM for Mining Sector

Would it be beneficial to save these $$ for your

company and for your career?
Reliability – Why Do we Care?
 Reliability
If You can Predict it You Can Prevent
The Estimated MRO Inventory cost of an Average US
Co. is 15-20% of the Worth just because our systems
are not Reliable and Predictable.
Reliability Management :-
An Organizational Approach

Creating a
Community of
Problem
Solvers
 Reliability – Two approaches
Probabilistic
•Measure reliability of sub systems through failure
Analysis
• Evaluate interactions between sub systems
• Predict reliability of the entire system without full
understanding of the details of what is causing the
variation – it’s too complex

Deterministic
•Religious vigilance and attention to detail – constant
and meticulous search for errors and defects through
inspections and testing – strict and thorough
implementation of corrective actions
Reliability –Bath Tub Curve
 Reliability – Time Scale
For Reliability, Time does not have to be
measured in only time! It can also be
measured in:-

• Mileage
• Man Hours
• Cycles
Start-ups
Thermal Stress
Mechanical Stress
 Reliability Hazard Rate

The one formula to describe it all

λ > 0 (scale or characteristic life)
K > 0 (shape)

H (x,k,λ) = (k/ λ) (x/ λ)k-1

A♦ -Minitab calculates it for you!

 Hazard Function graph
Defines how failure rater vary over life
failure rate vs days
 Exercise To Calculate Reliability for
Better Asset Utilization

• Let us take the example of Replacement of

Hi-tension (Voltage) swing wires in Mines and
Dredges:-

Objective- “To increase the Swing Wires life to

improve the Asset utilization”
 Reliability Parameters

•Reduce Employee Exposure to Hazards

arising from changing Hi-tension wires, Asset
failures and unsafe conditions.

•Increase Productivity of Assets by decreasing

downtime in Repair of Wires.

•Reduce Operating and Maintenance Expense

arising from frequent wire failures.
Asset Utilization (Cable Life)
Exercise
Asset Utilization (Cable Life)
Exercise
Asset Utilization (Cable Life)
Exercise
Asset Utilization (Cable Life)
Exercise
Asset Utilization (Cable Life)
Exercise
Asset Utilization (Cable Life)
Exercise
 Reliability
If You can Predict it You Can Prevent it !

Other Uses :-

Predict Future Injury Rate

Predict Future Warranty Costs and Customer
Returns (Cost of Returned goods)
 Measure, Predict & Optimize Utilization of
Your Assets
Man Hours worked Between Recordable
Injuries
 Demonstrate Improvements & Draw
conclusions about your past performance.
Additional Uses of Reliability analysis
A Case Study On
Reliability
Analysis
Compressor warranty claims:
Case Study (2009-10)

Suppose You work as a

Service/Reliability Manager for an
appliance manufacturer and want to
know the number of refrigerator
compressor warranty claims you
expect to see over the next five
months.
Why Predictive Modeling?

With Weibull Modeling you can Predict

Future Compressor failures so that:-

• You can plan & Schedule after sales

services ahead of time.
• Arrange stock of Replacement Parts
(Compressors).
• Inform Manufacturing to improve process
to reduce compressor failures and control
warranty costs.
 Predict Future Compressor
failures
Use Weibull distribution to model time-
to-failure

The Past warranty claim data shows

that Out of 12,000 units in the field, 69
compressors failed in year 2009-10

A♦ -Remember Minitab is there

to Help you!
Steps in Minitab to Predict
Future Compressor failures

STEP 1.

Arrange Data in a required format on

Minitab worksheet e.g. COMPRESSOR.MTW
Compressor Warranty Claims Data
from past 12 months (2009-10)
Steps in Minitab to Predict
Future Compressor failures

STEP 2.

Open worksheet and Choose Stat >

Reliability/Survival > Warranty Analysis
> Pre-Process Warranty Data.
Input Pre-Process Warranty Data
Steps in Minitab to Predict
Future Compressor failures

STEPS 3 AND 4:-

In Shipment (sale) column, enter Ship.

In Return (failure) columns, enter

Month1-Month12. Click OK.
Minitab Calculates

Start Time, End Time &

Frequencies of Warranty claims
Steps in Minitab to Predict
Future Compressor failures
Step 5
In Start time, enter 'Start time'. In
End time, enter 'End time'. In Frequency
(optional), enter Frequencies.

Step 6
Click Prediction. In Production
quantity for each time period, enter
1000. Click OK in each dialog box.
Open Warranty Predictions in
Minitab
Steps in Minitab to Predict
Future Compressor failures

Step 7-
Click Prediction. In Production
quantity for each time period, enter 1000.
Click OK in each dialog box.

OR

Stat > Reliability/Survival > Warranty

Analysis > Warranty Prediction > Graphs
Minitab Output and Results

Distribution: Weibull with shape = 1.31962, scale = 328.914

Estimation method:Least squares (failure time (X) on rank (Y))
Summary of Current Warranty Claims:-

Total number of Compressor units shipped - 12000

Observed number of failures - 69
Expected number of failures - 71.2094
95% Poisson CI - (55.6367, 89.7905)

Number of units at risk for future time periods 11931

 Minitab Output and Results

Production Schedule of Compressors :-

Future time period (MONTHS) 1 2 3 4 5

Production quantity (UNITS) 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Table of Predicted Number of Failures:-

Future Potential Predicted

Time Number of Number of 95% Poisson CI
Period Failures Failures Lower Upper
1 12931 13.9815 7.6403 23.466
2 13931 29.3874 19.7387 42.106
3 14931 46.2486 33.8905 61.642
4 15931 64.5942 49.8093 82.393
5 16931 84.4519 67.4053 104.498
Predicted No. of Compressor
Failures

Max Failure =104

Min Failure = 67

Max Failure in
1st month= 23
Interpreting results about the
warranty claims

Out of 12,000 compressor units Sold in

2009-10, approximately 71 units are
expected to fail in next five months in 2011.

OR

From the failures plot, you can conclude with

95% confidence that between approximately
67 and 104 units are expected to fail in the
next five months.
 So Now Your Life is Easy !
You can…

• Plan and Schedule Max. 13 replacement

Compressors in 1st Month, Max. 30 in 2nd .

• CALCULATE the projected warranty costs.

• Carry (min. 20 –max. 30) Replacement

Compressors in stock.

• Advice Manufacturing to improve their process

where 11,931 Out of 12,000 units are at risk.
Thank You For your Interest in
Reliability

Questions on Reliability Analysis?

Questions on Minitab Software?

*Apply for 30-Days Free Minitab trial

online at www.minitab.com
The World Trusts MINITAB

• Minitab is the leading provider of

software for statistics education, Lean
Six Sigma, and quality improvement
projects. For nearly 40 years we have
been helping world-class organizations
analyze problems, transform their
business, and train their students.
Additional Resources For
Reliability Analysis
 ASQ-Saskatchewan

www.asqsask.org
Acknowledgements

I greatly appreciate my MOSAIC Corporate

Six Sigma Team and ASQ-Saskatchewan
team for helping me prepare this workshop
presentation for ASQ-Canadian Quality
Summit and Mining Gala 2012.
Last but not the least I would like to thank
Mr. Jeff Adams of Minitab for supporting
this project for training and educating our
global quality community.
With Regards
Rajeev