PRESS RELEASE – Iowa City Safety Committee, Oct.

18, 2010
PRIMARY AUTHOR – Blake Whitten, contact phone number: (928) 254-3698
DATA SOURCES
• Denise Brotherton, Sergeant, Iowa City Police Department
• Patsy Porter, Records Clerk, UI Dept. of Public Safety

Statistical Analysis of Alcohol-Related Arrests in Iowa City

(June 1–Sept. 30, 2009) Compared to (June 1–Sept. 30, 2010)

Executive Summary
In the past two weeks the 21-Makes-Sense campaign has released, through cam-
paign literature and various spokespersons, statistics which purport to show a
decrease in alcohol-related crime in the four months June–September, 2010, com-
pared to the same period in 2009.
A careful check of these claims shows some of them to be substantiated, and
others to be misleading and false.
A major source of potential bias in the statistics cited by 21-Makes-Sense is that
they are based on incomplete data – calls for service by IC police. In fact, more
than a third of alcohol-related arrests in Iowa City in June–September, 2010 were
made by UI police.
Any fair comparison of overall alcohol statistics in Iowa City must combine data
from both sources (IC and UI), especially since UI has devoted between 5 and 8
extra officers to patrol downtown Iowa City beginning June 1, 2010 — the exact
date that the 21 ordinance took effect.
The overall picture is that alcohol-related arrests are down for city police from
2009 to 2010, they are up for university police, and total arrests by both IC and
UI police combined are up by 2.1% (1398 arrests in 2009 and 1427 arrests in
2010), even if open-container arrests are omitted from the comparison. (There
were 58 such arrests in 2009 and 347 arrests in 2010, but this dramatic increase
is attributable primarily to increased police activity during football tailgating
events.)
It is true, as 21-Makes-Sense claims, that PAULA’s are down, as are OWI’s. Yet
arrests for assault and disorderly conduct are up (contrary to claims made by
Matt Hayek and Tom Rocklin, respectively.) Arrests for disorderly house are
up an astonishing 118% (from 71 to 155), providing ample evidence of increased
problems with house parties in neighborhoods.
Overall, the data support the hypothesis that the 21 ordinance has not reduced
alcohol-related crime (in fact, it has increased by 2.1%), but the ordinance has
possibly succeeded in redistributing the crime from downtown to other parts of
the city.
An analysis of specific statistical claims begins on the next page.

1
 Analysis of Specific Statistical Claims

• Total Alcohol-Related Arrests (excludes arrests for open container)

IC Police
2009 2010
June 165 135
July 213 142
August 289 284
Sept. 373 329

Total 1040 890 =⇒ 14.4% decrease

UI Police
2009 2010
Total 358 537 =⇒ 50% increase

IC and UI Combined
2009 2010
Total 1398 1427 =⇒ 2.1% increase

• Source: 21-Makes-Sense Campaign Brochure (copy attached)

Claim: “83% drop in simple assaults”
Analysis: Data for arrests for simple assault show claim to be False.

IC Police
2009 2010
June 5 4
July 5 8
August 4 7
Sept. 8 4

Total 22 23 =⇒ 4.5% increase

UI Police
2009 2010
Total 0 4 =⇒ percentage increase is undefined

IC and UI Combined
2009 2010
Total 22 27 =⇒ 22.7% increase

2
• Source: Mayor Matt Hayek, Oct. 14 opinion, Iowa City Press-Citizen
Claim: “Assaults are down 54%”
Analysis:

– True only if restricted to calls for service (not actual arrests) and UI
police data are ignored.
– False if arrest data include both police departments combined.

IC Police – Weekend calls (Assaults)

2009 2010
June 14 10
July 10 5
August 14 3
Sept. 19 8

Total 57 26 =⇒ 54.4% decrease

IC Police – Arrests for Assault

2009 2010
June 13 12
July 14 14
August 17 22
Sept. 23 17

Total 67 65 =⇒ 3.0% decrease

UI Police – Arrests for Assault

2009 2010
Total 7 10 =⇒ 42.9% increase

IC and UI Combined – Arrests for Assault

2009 2010
Total 74 75 =⇒ 1.4% increase

3
• Source: Tom Rocklin (UI VP for Student Services), Oct. 11 debate
Claim: “Disorderly conduct arrests down 17%”
Analysis:

– True only if data are restricted to IC police

– False if data include both police departments combined

IC Police
2009 2010
June 23 11
July 17 23
August 24 14
Sept. 35 34

Total 99 82 =⇒ 17.2% decrease

UI Police
2009 2010
Total 8 29 =⇒ 263.0% increase

IC and UI Combined
2009 2010
Total 107 111 =⇒ 3.7% increase

• Arrests for Disorderly House (provides evidence of increased house parties)

IC Police (UI police do not tabulate these arrests)

2009 2010
June 5 12
July 7 5
August 31 56
Sept. 28 82

Total 71 155 =⇒ 118.3% increase