SCL User Guide

Prepared by
Sri Srikanthan
Francis Chiew
Andrew Frost
www.toolkit.net.au/scl
USER GUIDE
Document History
Date Author Revision Description of Change
June 2004 Sri Srikanthan 1.0 Creation and Draft of User Guide
June 2004 Francis Chiew 1.0.3b First version of User Guide
February 2005 Sri Srikanthan 1.0.4b Amended version of User Guide
May 2005 Sri Srikanthan 2.0b Amended version of User Guide
Feb 2006 Sri Srikanthan 2.1b Amended version of User Guide
Added reference to paper by Thyer, M., Kuczera,
27 Feb 2007 Nick Murray 2.1b
G. and Wang
Copyright Notice
© CRC for Catchment Hydrology, Australia 2000-2006
Legal Information
To the extend permitted by law, the CRC for Catchment Hydrology (including its employees and
consultants) accepts no responsibility and excludes all liability whatsoever in respect of any person’s use or
reliance on this publication or any part of it
Acknowledgements
SCL is a product from the stochastic climate data generation projects in the CRC for Catchment
Hydrology’s (CRCCH) Climate Variability Program. The projects involve the development and testing of
stochastic data generation models, by CRCCH staff in collaboration with other researchers. The people
involved in the projects are listed below.
CRCCH Researchers
Francis Chiew1, Andrew Frost2, Tom McMahon1, Lionel Siriwardina1, Sri Srikanthan2, Senlin Zhou1
Other Researchers
George Kuczera3, Ashish Sharma4, Mark Thyer3
Software Development
Jean-Michel Perraud5, Joel Rahman5
Project Reviewers
Tom Chapman4, Rory Nathan6, Geoff Pegram7, George Kuczera3
The Product Manager of SCL is Sri Srikanthan.
1
University of Melbourne
2
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
3
University of Newcastle
4
University of New South Wales
5
CSIRO Land and Water
6
Sinclair Knight Merz
7
University of Natal, South Africa
This page intentionally left blank
Contents
Stochastic Climate Library (SCL)
CONTENTS
1 Introduction...........................................................1
1.1 The user guide ...................................................................................................................2
1.2 Stochastic Climate Library (SCL)...........................................................................................2
1.2.1 Overview ......................................................................................................2
1.2.2 Features........................................................................................................2
1.2.3 Audience ......................................................................................................3
1.2.4 Limitations and cautionary notes .....................................................................3
1.3 Data requirements..............................................................................................................3
1.3.1 Input data .....................................................................................................3
1.3.2 Generated data.............................................................................................4
1.4 References and training ......................................................................................................4
2 Installation ............................................................5
2.1 Technical specifications.......................................................................................................5
2.2 Licence agreement .............................................................................................................5
2.3 Folders..............................................................................................................................6
2.4 Installation.........................................................................................................................6
2.4.1 Framework installation ...................................................................................6
2.4.2 Stand-alone PC .............................................................................................6
2.5 Uninstalling SCL.................................................................................................................6
3 Using SCL .............................................................7

3.1 Getting started ...................................................................................................................7
3.1.1 Steps in running SCL ......................................................................................8
3.2 Running the annual rainfall model .......................................................................................8
3.3 Running the monthly rainfall model ....................................................................................15
3.4 Running the daily rainfall model.........................................................................................17
3.5 Running the sub-daily rainfall model ..................................................................................19
3.6 Running the annual climate model .....................................................................................22
3.7 Running the monthly climate model....................................................................................24
3.8 Running the daily climate model ........................................................................................26
3.9 Running the multi-site daily rainfall model...........................................................................29
4 Description of models in SCL ...............................32

4.1 Annual rainfall model .......................................................................................................32
4.2 Monthly rainfall model ..................................................................................................... 33

4.3 Daily rainfall model ......................................................................................................... 33
4.4 Sub-daily rainfall model ................................................................................................... 36
4.5 Annual climate model ...................................................................................................... 37
4.6 Monthly climate model ..................................................................................................... 38
4.7 Daily climate model ......................................................................................................... 38
4.8 Multi-site daily rainfall model ............................................................................................ 40
5 Assessment of generated data .............................42

5.1 Statistics displayed by SCL ................................................................................................ 42
5.2 Assessment of stochastically generated data ....................................................................... 42
6 References...........................................................46
6.1 Reviews and general reports ............................................................................................. 46
6.2 Annual rainfall model....................................................................................................... 46
6.3 Monthly rainfall model ..................................................................................................... 47
6.4 Daily rainfall model ......................................................................................................... 47
6.5 Sub-daily rainfall model ................................................................................................... 47
6.6 Climate model ................................................................................................................ 47
6.7 Multi-site daily rainfall model ............................................................................................ 47
Contents
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 3-1: Start up window for SCL ...................................................................................................7
Figure 3-2: Input data screen............................................................................................................10
Figure 3-3: Open dialogue box for inputting data...............................................................................11
Figure 3-4: Graphical display of time series data ................................................................................11
Figure 3-5: Estimation of model parameter screen ..............................................................................11
Figure 3-6: Dialogue box for inputting required number of replicates and replicate lengths.....................12
Figure 3-7: Graphical display of stochastically generated data.............................................................12
Figure 3-8: Graphical display of the distribution of stochastically generated data...................................13
Figure 3-9: Statistics displayed as tabulated values (Grid) ...................................................................13
Figure 3-10: Statistics displayed as whisker plots (Percentiles)..............................................................14
Figure 3-11: Summary assessment of quality of stochastically generated data.......................................14
Figure 3-12: Exporting data screen ...................................................................................................14
Figure 4-13: Location of the rainfall stations in Table 4.1 ....................................................................35
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 4-1: Number of states used for different rainfall stations (Srikanthan and McMahon, 1985) ...........34
Table 4-2: State boundaries for rainfall amounts in the TPM model ......................................................35
Table 5-3: Annual statistics...............................................................................................................43
Table 5-4: Monthly statistics .............................................................................................................43
Table 5-5: Daily statistics (for daily rainfall model) ..............................................................................44
Table 5-6: Daily statistics (for daily climate model) ..............................................................................44
Table 5-7: Number of statistics assessed ............................................................................................45
This page intentionally left blank
Introduction
1 Introduction
SCL (Stochastic Climate Library) is a library of stochastic models for generating climate data.
This version of SCL (Version 2.1b) has stochastic models for generating:
Single site rainfall at:
• Sub-daily,
• Daily,
• Monthly, and
• Annual timescales.
Single site climate (Rainfall, Evaporation, Maximum temperature) at:
• Daily,
• Monthly, and
• Annual timescales.
Multi-site rainfall at:
• Daily timescales.
Other stochastic models may be added to future versions of SCL, after model development
and testing.
What is stochastic climate data?

In short, stochastic climate data are random numbers that are modified so that they have the
same characteristics (in terms of mean, variance, skew, long-term persistency, etc…) as the
historical data from which they are based. Each stochastic replicate (sequence) is different
and has different characteristics compared to the historical data, but the average of each
characteristic from all the stochastic replicates is the same as the historical data.
What is the use of stochastic climate data?

Using historical climate data as inputs into hydrological models provides results that are
based on only one realisation of the past climate. Stochastic climate data provide alternative
realisations that are equally likely to occur, and can therefore be used as inputs into
hydrological and ecological models to quantify uncertainty in environmental systems
associated with climate variability.
1
1.1 The user guide

The User Guide describes how you interact with Stochastic Climate Library (SCL). It describes
how you can use SCL to generate stochastic climate data and make an assessment of the
quality of the stochastically generated data.
1.2 Stochastic Climate Library (SCL)
1.2.1 Overview
SCL is a library of stochastic models for generating climate data.
This version of SCL (Version 2.1b) has eight models for generating rainfall and climate data
at a site at annual, monthly, daily and sub-daily time steps.
• Annual rainfall – first order autoregressive model with parameter uncertainty
• Monthly rainfall – modified method of fragments (with annual data generated using
the above annual rainfall model)
• Daily rainfall – transition probability matrix (with Boughton’s correction)
• Sub-daily rainfall – DRIP model
• Annual climate – first order autoregressive multivariate model
• Monthly climate – modified method of fragments
• Daily climate – first order autoregressive multivariate model conditioned on rainfall
state and nested in monthly and annual models.
• Multi-site daily rainfall – multi-site two-part model nested in monthly and annual
models
The “rainfall” models generate rainfall data only. The “climate” models generate rainfall
and other climate variables. The “rainfall” models should be used when only stochastic
rainfall data are required. The “climate” models require concurrent rainfall and climate as
input data, which are usually of considerably shorter length than the rainfall data itself.
The models in SCL, and the model development and testing, are described in detail in the
references in Chapter 6.
1.2.2 Features
SCL is easy to use and is based on relatively robust stochastic climate data generation
models. The models in SCL have been tested using data from many sites across Australia
(see references in Chapter 6).
Features of SCL include:
• Allows easy use of stochastic data generation models
• Runs quickly
• Supports various time series input data formats
• Displays input time series and stochastically generated data graphically
• Allows easy retrieval of the stochastically generated climate data
• Displays the mean and percentiles of various statistics of the generated data and the
corresponding values in the historical data (as tabulated values and whisker plots) –
values can also be written to a file
2
Introduction
• Observed and generated data empirical distributions can be compared at various

aggregation timescales. For the daily models, annual daily maxima plots are
produced. For rainfall this allows Depth-Frequency-Duration curves to be evaluated.
1.2.3 Audience
SCL is designed for hydrologists, environmental scientists, modellers, consultants and
researchers to facilitate the generation of stochastic climate data.
1.2.4 Limitations and cautionary notes

As a general rule, the input data should have at least 30 years of historical climate time
series.
A basic understanding of stochastic climate data is required to properly use stochastic data
with hydrological and ecological models to quantify uncertainty in environmental systems
associated with climate variability. The user should consider the following questions when
designing a stochastic and hydrological modelling study:
• Is there a need for stochastic simulations?
• Is the hydrological model used for the particular application appropriate/reliable?
• Are the historical data reliable (note that stochastic data do not improve poor records,
but improve the design made with whatever reliable historical records that are
available)?
• Which is the appropriate stochastic model for the particular application (time step,
single or multi-variable, single or multi-site, etc…)?
• Is the stochastic and hydrological modelling methodology appropriate?
• Do the statistics in the stochastically generated climate data match those of the
historical data?
Although stochastic hydrology is a matured science, new stochastic models are continually
being developed, usually with marginal improvements on previous models. The models in
SCL are selected because of available expertise, their robustness, and extensive and
successful model testing using data from across Australia.
1.3 Data requirements
1.3.1 Input data

SCL requires a continuous time series as input data.
The type of data and time step of data that is required depend on the stochastic data that is
required. For example: to generate annual rainfall, a continuous annual rainfall time series
is required as input data; to generate daily climate (daily rainfall, PET and temperature), a
continuous daily rainfall, PET and temperature time series is required as input data.
All the models except the sub-daily rainfall model in SCL require that there is no missing data
in the time series.
Various time series data formats are supported by SCL.
As a general rule, the input data should have at least 30 years of historical climate time
series.
3
1.3.2 Generated data

SCL generates the stochastic climate data, as specified by the user (number of replicates and
length of replicate).
SCL also computes various statistics and displays them on the screen.
Both the generated data and the statistics of the stochastically generated data (and
comparison with the statistics of the historical data) can be exported as text files.
1.4 References and training

SCL is a product developed by the CRC for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH).
As a part of the product delivery, the CRCCH runs training workshops. Details of workshops
are posted on the Toolkit website (www.toolkit.net.au) in the news and events sections.
References for the development and testing of the models in SCL are listed in Chapter 6.
4
Installation
2 Installation
2.1 Technical specifications
Type of Machine Intel based PC with CD-ROM drive
Processor Minimum: 133 MHz Pentium class processor
Recommended: 400 MHz or faster
Memory Minimum: 128 MB of RAM
Recommended: 512 MB
Disk Space Minimum: 200 MB
Recommended: > 500MB (depending on amount of
stochastically generated data to be stored)
Operating System Windows 2000 + Service Pack 4
Windows XP + Service Pack 1
Windows NT4 + Service Pack 6a
Other Supporting Software .NET Framework 1.1 redistributable or later is required (see
Section 2.4.1) to run SCL.
The person installing the software must have local administrator access on the computer.
Ideally, you should also have the relevant permissions to install and uninstall software.
Note: If you are using a networked computer, then inform your system administrator before
applying any service packs or updates, as there may be other applications on your computer
that could be affected by these updates.
2.2 Licence agreement

A licence agreement is part of the installation procedure. You must acknowledge that you
have read, understood and agree to be bound by the SCL software licence agreement to be
able to proceed with the installation. The licence agreement can be viewed when using SCL
by selecting Help > About and selecting the Licence Agreement button.
5
2.3 Folders
SCL can be downloaded from the toolkit website www.toolkit.net.au.
The installation of SCL (see Section 2.4.2) will create a directory that contains:
• The SCL software (default path c:\Program Files\Toolkit\SCL)
• Sample data files (default path c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data)
2.4 Installation
2.4.1 Framework installation

The .NET Framework is a component of the Microsoft Windows® operating system used to
build and run Windows-based applications. The SCL is built using the .NET Framework and
consequently requires that the .NET Framework redistributable framework be installed prior
to running. The .NET Framework Redistributable will install the .NET Framework onto your
machine and is downloadable from
www.msdn.microsoft.com/netframework/downloads/redist.aspx.
You can check to see if you already have the .NET Framework installed by clicking Start on
your Windows desktop, selecting Settings > Control Panel, and then double clicking the
Add/Remove Programs icon. When that window appears, scroll through the list of
applications. If you see Microsoft .NET Framework 1.1 listed, the latest version is already
installed and you do not need to install it again.
2.4.2 Stand-alone PC
Unzipping the file downloaded from the Toolkit website (SCL_2.1b.zip) would produce three
files. To install SCL, double-click Setup.Exe, which will initiate an install wizard, which leads
you through the install procedure. The SCL software and sample data will be installed to a
default directory (c:\Program Files\Toolkit\SCL) or to a directory that you specify.
When SCL is successfully installed, an SCL short-cut icon will appear on the Desktop. You
can run the SCL software by double clicking this icon.
2.5 Uninstalling SCL

To uninstall SCL, click Start on your Windows desktop, select Settings > Control Panel, and
then double click the Add/Remove Programs icon. When that window appears, scroll
through the list of applications to locate SCL. Select SCL and click the Remove button.
6
Using SCL
3 Using SCL
3.1 Getting started
To run SCL, double click the SCL icon on the desktop. Alternatively, click Start on your
Windows desktop and select Programs > Toolkit > Stochastic Climate Library > SCL (if you
have installed SCL to the default directory).
The SCL introduction splash screen will appear for approximately 5 seconds.
The SCL opening window screen will then appear with six module buttons (Figure 3-1).
The user can select a module (type of stochastic climate data generation model) by clicking
on it.
Figure 3-1: Start up window for SCL
7
3.1.1 Steps in running SCL

The interaction with SCL is described here as an eight-step procedure.
Steps 1 to 4 involve running the stochastic model and are essential sequential steps.
Steps 5 to 7 allow the user to view graphical time series and statistics of the stochastically
generated and historical data.
Step 8 allows the user to export the stochastically generated data and/or the statistics of the
generated and historical data.
The steps are described in detail for the annual rainfall model, with screen captures of SCL
shown for all steps. The user is strongly advised to run the annual rainfall model first to gain
a good appreciation of SCL.
The steps are also described in sufficient detail for the other models, but screen captures are
not shown. The screen and user interaction with the other models are very similar to those of
the annual rainfall model.
Note As a general rule, at least 30 years of historical time series should be

used as input data.
The user should read Chapter 5 to understand how the quality of the
stochastically generated data can be assessed.
The user should run the annual rainfall model first to gain a good
appreciation of SCL.
3.2 Running the annual rainfall model
Step 1 (Running the model)

To run the annual rainfall model, select the Annual model under Single Site Rainfall and click
the Launch button.
The annual rainfall model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left hand
side (LHS) frame already selected (see Figure 3-2).
Step 2 (Inputting the data)

To load the input data, click the Open button.
Select the annual rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on the
appropriate data file, and then clicking the Open button (see Figure 3-3).
[Example input data file can be found in c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\AnnualRainfall]
The rainfall data will be loaded and a time series plot will be displayed in the right hand side
(RHS) frame (see Figure 3-4). Input data details (file loaded status, time step, start date, end
date, number of years of historical record) will appear in the panel above the time series plot.
Step 3 (Estimating the model parameters)

Click the Model Parameters menu item in the LHS frame.
Click the Estimate button (see Figure 3-5). The word “Completed” will appear above the
progress bar when the model has completed estimating the parameter values.
8
Using SCL
Step 4 (Generating stochastic data)

Select Create Replicates menu item in the LHS frame.
Enter the required Number of Replicates and Replicate Length, and then click the Generate
button (see Figure 3-6). The word “Completed” will appear above the progress bar when
the model has completed generating the stochastic data.
[NOTE: For comparison of the statistics of the generated and historical data to be valid, the
replicate length and the historical input data length must be the same. It is also
recommended that at least 100 replicates should be generated to properly capture the
sampling variability]
Step 5 (Viewing graphical display of stochastically generated data)

Expand the Analyse Results menu item in the LHS frame by clicking the + sign against it.
Select the View Replicates menu item.
The replicate numbers will be displayed in the RHS frame. Select a replicate and this will be
displayed as a time series.
Select the View Distributions menu item.
The variable name and possible aggregation levels will be displayed in the two upper LHS
panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual). A list of the
possible Distribution plots will appear in the lower panel.
Here a ‘distribution’ is taken to mean an empirical plot of the cumulative distribution of the
historical data series (at the aggregation level chosen) and the simulated median, 2.5 and
97.5 percentiles using Weibull plotting position.
‘Annual Maxima’ distribution plots are available for Aggregation levels at or below the
monthly timescale. This plots the ranked annual maxima series extracted from the overall
record (for a given aggregation level). This can be used to produce plots equivalent to
Intensity-Frequency-Duration curves for rainfall.
Select Rainfall, Annual and Annual Distribution in the left hand panels of the plot area. The
distribution of historical and generated annual values will appear in the plot area.
Step 6 (Viewing and assessing statistics)

Expand the Analyse Results menu item in the LHS frame by clicking the + sign against it (if
you have not already done so).
Select the Statistics menu item to view the statistics.
panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual). A list of the
possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
To view a particular statistic, select one (mean, standard deviation etc) from the lower
Statistic panel.
The statistics can be viewed as tabulated values (Grid), as whisker plots (Percentiles) or as a
scatter plot comparing the statistic in the historical data and in the stochastically generated
data (Scatter plot) by clicking the appropriate View option (scatter plot option is available
only for Monthly Statistics and Daily Statistics).
In the Grid view, statistics are listed in text format (widen the screen to see everything).
The display shows the value of the statistic in the historical data, and the mean and
percentiles (2.5, 25, 50, 75, 97.5) of the statistic in the stochastically generated data. The
display also shows a pre-specified tolerance (see Chapter 5) and indicates whether the
difference between the mean of the statistic in the stochastically generated data and the
historical data is within the tolerance (the OK box (last item in each row) is ticked if the
difference is within the tolerance).
9
In the Percentiles view (see Figure 3-10), the value of the statistic in the historical data, and
the mean and percentiles of the statistic in the stochastically generated data, are displayed as
a whisker plot.
In the Scatter plot view (not available for the annual model) the mean of the statistic in the
stochastically generated data (for each month) is plotted against the statistic in the historical
data.
Step 7 (Viewing generated data summary)

Select the Summary menu item (see Figure 3-11).
The RHS frame lists the total number of statistics computed by SCL and the number of
statistics where the difference between the mean of the statistic in the stochastically generated
data and the historical data is within the specified tolerance (see Chapter 5 for details on
assessing the quality of stochastically generated data).
Step 8 (Writing results to a file)

Select the Export menu item in the LHS frame (see Figure 3-12).
To write the stochastically generated data to a file, click the Save Replicates button (you may
also enter a title, which will be written to the output file).
In the Save As dialogue box that appears on the screen, enter the file name and select an
appropriate location for the file. Then click the Save button.
To write the statistics and summary model assessment to a file, click the Save Statistics button
(you may also enter a title, which will be written to the output file).
Figure 3-2: Input data screen.
10
Using SCL
Figure 3-3: Open dialogue box for inputting data
Figure 3-4: Graphical display of time series data
Figure 3-5: Estimation of model parameter screen
11
Figure 3-6: Dialogue

box for inputting required
number of replicates and replicate lengths
Figure 3-7: Graphical display of stochastically generated data
12
Using SCL
Figure 3-8: Graphical display of the distribution of stochastically generated data
Figure 3-9: Statistics displayed as tabulated values (Grid)
13
Figure 3-10: Statistics displayed as whisker plots (Percentiles)
Figure 3-11: Summary assessment of quality of stochastically generated data
Figure 3-12: Exporting data screen
14
Using SCL
3.3 Running the monthly rainfall model
Note Users should first run the annual rainfall model (see Section 3.3) to
gain an appreciation of SCL
The description in this section assumes that the user has run the annual
rainfall model and has read Section 3.3.

To run the monthly rainfall model, select the Monthly model under Single Site Rainfall and
click the Launch button.
The monthly rainfall model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left hand
side (LHS) frame already selected.

Select the monthly rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on the
appropriate data file, and then clicking the Open button.
[Example input data file can be found in c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\MonthlyRainfall]
(RHS) frame.

Click the Estimate button. The word “Completed” will appear above the progress bar when
the model has completed estimating the parameter values.

Enter the required Number of Replicates and Replicate Length, and then click the Generate.
The word “Completed” will appear above the progress bar when the model has completed
generating the stochastic data.

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual or Monthly –
multiple timescales can be selected by holding Ctrl). A list of the possible Distribution plots
will appear in the lower panel.
15
97.5 percentiles using Weibull plotting position.
Select Rainfall and Monthly in the left hand panels, a number of monthly distributions appear
in the bottom panel. Select any monthly distribution to view.

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual or Monthly). A list
of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Statistic panel.
In the Percentiles view, the value of the statistic in the historical data, and the mean and
percentiles of the statistic in the stochastically generated data, are displayed as a whisker
plot.
In the Scatter plot view, the mean of the statistic in the stochastically generated data (for each
month) is plotted against the statistic in the historical data.

Select the Summary menu item.

Select the Export menu item in the LHS frame.
16
Using SCL
3.4 Running the daily rainfall model

To run the daily rainfall model, click the Daily model under Single Site Rainfall and click the
Launch button.
The daily rainfall model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left hand

Select the daily rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on the appropriate
data file, and then clicking the Open button).
[Example input data file can be found in c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\DailyRainfall]
(RHS) frame.

Click the Rainfall classes button. The default values of six rainfall classes (states) for each
month can be used for most parts of Australia (east coast, south-east coast and south-west
coast). For arid areas, and areas with very low winter rainfall, Section 4.3 provides guidance
on the choice of number of rainfall classes (states). The user can change the number of
rainfall classes directly in the Rainfall Classes dialogue box, and then clicking the OK button.
the model has completed estimating the parameter values. The parameters for the daily
rainfall model (transition probability matrix model) will also be displayed.

17
button. The word “Completed” will appear above the progress bar when the model has
completed generating the stochastic data.

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual, Monthly or Daily –
97.5 percentiles using the Weibull plotting position.
Daily distributions can be viewed for individual months. Select Rainfall, Annual and Annual
Distribution in the left hand panels of the plot area. The distribution of historical and
generated annual values will appear in the plot area.
Select Rainfall and Daily in the left hand panels, a number of daily distributions appear in the
bottom panel. Select any daily distribution to view.

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual, Monthly or Daily).
A list of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Statistic panel.
18
Using SCL
plot.


3.5 Running the sub-daily rainfall model
gain an appreciation of SCL.
rainfall model and has read Section 3.3
The sub-daily rainfall model DRIP differs from other models within SCL
in that parameters are not estimated within SCL (in this version). DRIP
requires an input Bureau of Meteorology 6-minute pluviograph file and
a corresponding DRIP parameter file. These parameter files are
available for a number of sites through the Toolkit website (under
additional downloads with SCL)

To run the daily rainfall model, click the Sub-Daily model under Single Site Rainfall and click
the Launch button.
The sub-daily rainfall model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left
hand side (LHS) frame already selected.
19

Select the sub-daily rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on the
appropriate data file, and then clicking the Open button).
Example input data file can be found in:
c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\ SubdailyRainfall

(RHS) frame.

Click the Estimate button. A message window will appear to say that the parameters are
read from a parameter file. Click OK button once you have read the message.


panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (72hr, 48hr, 24hr, 12hr,
6hr, 1hr, 0.5hr, 0.1hr – multiple timescales can be selected by holding Ctrl). A list of the
Select Rainfall and 24hr in the left hand panels, a number of daily distributions appear in the
bottom panel. Select any daily distribution to view.
If the historical data has missing data, then the comparison will be biased.

If the historical data has missing data, then the comparison will be biased.
20
Using SCL

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Daily, Six-hourly or
Hourly). A list of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Statistic panel.
plot.


21
3.6 Running the annual climate model
In the current SCL setup, the model generates three climate variables: Rainfall, Evaporation
and Mean max temperature. Continuous and concurrent time series data for the three
climate variables, each in a separate file, are required to run the model.

To run the annual climate model, click the Annual model under Single Site Climate and click
the Launch button.
The annual climate model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left hand

The annual climate data for each of the climate time series must be loaded separately.
For example, to load Rainfall, select Rainfall at the top of the RHS frame, and click the Open
button. Then select the annual rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on
the appropriate data file, and then clicking the Open button. The data will be loaded and a
time series plot will be displayed in the right hand side (RHS) frame.
Repeat the above steps to load Evaporation and Mean max temperature.
[Example input data files can be found in c: \Program
Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\AnnualClimate]
the model has completed estimating the parameter values. The parameters for the annual
climate model (first order autoregressive multivariate model) will also be displayed.

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall, Evaporation or Maximum temperature) and an
22
Using SCL
Aggregation timescale (Annual). A list of the possible Distribution plots will appear in the
lower panel.

Aggregation timescale (Annual). A list of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Statistic panel. For cross correlation statistics, select two items from the Variable panel using
Ctrl + click.
plot.


23
3.7 Running the monthly climate model

To run the monthly climate model, click the Monthly model under Single Site Climate and
click the Launch button.
The monthly climate model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left hand

The monthly climate data for each of the climate time series must be loaded separately.
button. Then select the monthly rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking
on the appropriate data file, and then clicking the Open button. The data will be loaded
and a time series plot will be displayed in the right hand side (RHS) frame.
Repeat the steps to load Evaporation and Mean max temperature.
[Example input data files can be found in c: \Program
Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\MonthlyClimate]

the model has completed estimating the parameter values. The model parameters will also
be displayed (for the first order autoregressive multivariate annual climate model).

24
Using SCL

Aggregation timescale (Annual or Monthly – multiple timescales can be selected by holding
Ctrl). A list of the possible Distribution plots will appear in the lower panel.

panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual or Monthly). A list
of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Ctrl + click.
plot.
25


3.8 Running the daily climate model

To run the daily climate model, click the Daily model under Single Site Climate and click the
Launch button.
The daily climate model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left hand

The daily climate data for each of the climate time series must be loaded separately.
26
Using SCL
button. Then select the daily rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on
the appropriate data file, and then clicking the Open button. The data will be loaded and a
time series plot will be displayed in the right hand side (RHS) frame.
Repeat the steps to load Evaporation and Mean max temperature.
[Example input data files can be found in c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\DailyClimate]

the model has completed estimating the parameter values.


panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual, Monthly or Daily –
Daily distributions can be viewed for individual months. Select Rainfall and Daily in the left
hand panels, a number of daily distributions appear in the bottom panel. Select any daily
distribution to view.

27
panels. Select a Variable (Rainfall) and an Aggregation timescale (Annual, Monthly or Daily).
A list of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Ctrl + click.
plot.


28
Using SCL
3.9 Running the multi-site daily rainfall model

To run the daily rainfall model, click the Daily model under Multi Site Rainfall and click the
Launch button.
The multi-site daily rainfall model screen will appear with the Input Data menu item in the left
hand side (LHS) frame already selected.

The input date is loaded one at a time. To load the input data, click the Add button.
Select the daily rainfall data file using the Open dialogue box, by clicking on the appropriate
data file, and then clicking the Open button).
[Example input data file can be found in c: \Program Files\Toolkit\SCL\Data\DailyRainfall]
A window will appear for a name for the time series with the file name as the default name.
Type in the time series name (if you wish) and click OK button. The rainfall data will be
loaded and a time series plot will be displayed in the right hand side (RHS) frame.
Repeat the above steps until the data for all the sites have been loaded.

the model has completed estimating the parameter values. The parameters for the daily
rainfall model (transition probability matrix model) will also be displayed.


panels. Select a Variable (choose from input rainfall sites) and an Aggregation timescale
29
(Annual, Monthly or Daily – multiple timescales can be selected by holding Ctrl). A list of the
Select Site 1, Annual and Annual Distribution in the left hand panels of the plot area. The
Select Site 1 and Monthly in the left hand panels, a number of monthly distributions appear
Select Site 1and Daily in the left hand panels, a number of daily distributions appear in the
bottom panel. Select any daily distribution to view. Daily distributions can be viewed for
individual months.

panels. Select a Variable (choose from list of input sites) and an Aggregation timescale
(Annual, Monthly or Daily). A list of the possible Statistics will appear in the lower panel.
Ctrl + click.
plot.

30
Using SCL

31
4 Description of models
in SCL
This chapter provides a brief description of the stochastic climate data generation models in
SCL.
The model development and testing are described in detail in the references in Chapter 6.
4.1 Annual rainfall model

A lag one autoregressive [AR(1)] model with parameter uncertainty is used to generate
annual rainfall data. The AR(1) model conceptualises annual rainfall as being dependent on
the previous time step only, with an added random Gaussian component. The time
dependency of the AR(1) model can be written as:
zt = µ + 1 ( zt 1 µ) + t (4.1)
where zt is the transformed (see Eq 4.2) rainfall at time step t, µ is the mean, 1 is the
autoregressive parameter and t is a Gaussian random variable with zero mean and variance
2
.
The data is normalised (such that the Gaussian assumption of the AR(1) model is satisfied)
using the Box-Cox transformation:
xt 1
0
zt = (4.2)
log xt =0
where is the transformation parameter which transforms the skewed observed data to
approximately Gaussian. With the transformation parameter included, the vector of
unknown AR(1) model parameters is given by:
T
= (µ, , 1 , ) (4.3)
Rather than estimate a single parameter set through optimisation, a Bayesian approach is
adopted. This approach recognises that there is uncertainty associated with parameter
estimates, and infers a ‘posterior’ distribution of parameters (after input of model data). A
‘prior’ distribution must be specified (the distribution before input of data), and in this case a
uniform distribution is assumed for all parameters.
32
Description of models in SCL
Generalisation in the Bayesian framework requires parameter samples from the posterior
distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCM) methods provide a mean to sample from
the posterior distribution. The Metropolis algorithm (a particular type of MCMC algorithm) is
used to simulate the posterior distribution of the model parameters. To improve the
acceptance rate of the Metropolis algorithm, the parameter space is transformed to remove
the dependencies of µ and on .
µx 1
µ=
(4.4)
= µx 1
x 1 1
2
where µx and x represent a first order approximation to the expected value and the standard
deviation of the untransformed rainfall data.
Once samples from the posterior distribution have been generated, these samples can be
used in the synthetic generation of time series replicates. The parameter samples T are
chosen at random from the posterior distribution to generate each individual replicate.
4.2 Monthly rainfall model

Monthly rainfall data is generated by disaggregating generated annual data using the
modified method of fragments. The annual rainfall data is generated by the AR(1) model
with parameter uncertainty.
The modified method of fragments chooses a monthly temporal disaggregation (fragments of
the annual rainfall) based on those observed in the historical record. This disaggregation
pattern is chosen based on a measure of closeness of each generated years rainfall to that of
the observed data.
In the modified method of fragments, the observed monthly rainfalls are standardised year by
year so that the sum of the monthly rainfall in any year equals one. This is carried out by
dividing the monthly rainfall in a year by the corresponding annual rainfall. By doing so,
from a record of n years, one will have n sets of fragments of monthly rainfalls. The
appropriate monthly fragments for a given year, k, is selected by considering the closeness of
the generated annual rainfall data and the monthly rainfall for the last month of the previous
year of the already disaggregated data to the corresponding historical values. This is
achieved by selecting the monthly fragments of a year, i, in the generated monthly series that
produces a minimum value for i, which is defined below:
2 2
x ' k xi y' k yi
i = + 1 1
(4.5)
sx sy
where x k is the generated annual rainfall for year k, xi is the historical annual rainfall for year
I, sxis the standard deviation of the annual rainfall, y k-1 is the disaggregated monthly rainfall
for the last month of year k-1, yi-1 is the historical monthly rainfall for the last month of year i-
1, and sy is the standard deviation of the monthly rainfall for the last month of a year.
The generated annual rainfalls are disaggregated by multiplying the generated rainfall by
each of the 12 fragments to give 12 generated monthly rainfalls.
4.3 Daily rainfall model

Daily rainfall data is generated by transition probability matrix method with Boughton’s
correction.
33
In the Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) model, the seasonality in occurrence and
magnitude of daily rainfall are taken into account by considering each month separately.
The daily rainfalls are divided into a number of states, up to a maximum of seven. State 1 is
dry (no rainfall) and the other states are wet. The recommended number of states for each
month can be determined for a specific location from Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1.
The state boundaries for rainfall amounts are given in Table 4.2. If the number of states is
less than seven, the upper limit of the last state is infinite.
The shifted Gamma distribution is used to model rainfall amounts for the last state, while a
linear distribution is used for the intermediate states. The latter is chosen because daily
rainfall usually exhibits a J shape distribution.
Table 4-1: Number of states used for different rainfall

stations (Srikanthan and McMahon, 1985)
Station Latitude Longitude J F M A M J J A S O N D

° S ° E
Melbourne 37 49 144 58 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Lerderderg 37 30 144 22 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Monto 24 51 151 01 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Cowra 33 49 148 42 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Adelaide 34 56 138 35 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Perth 31 57 115 51 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Sydney 33 52 151 12 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Brisbane 27 28 21 06 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Mackay 21 06 149 06 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Kalgoorlie 30 47 121 27 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Alice Springs 23 49 133 53 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Onslow 21 40 115 07 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3
Bamboo Springs 22 03 119 38 6 6 6 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 5
Broome 17 57 122 15 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Darwin 12 27 130 48 7 7 7 7 3 2 2 2 3 7 7 7
34
Figure 4-13: Location of the rainfall stations in Table 4.1
Table 4-2: State boundaries for rainfall amounts in the TPM model
State number Upper state boundary limit (mm)

1 0.0
2 0.9
3 2.9
4 6.9
5 14.9
6 30.9
7
The transition probabilities are estimated from
f ij (k )
pij (k ) = C
i, j = 1, 2, …, C; k = 1, 2, …, 12 (4.6)
f ij (k )
j =1
where fij(k) is the historical frequency of transition from state i to state j within month k, and C
is the maximum number of states.
The Gamma distribution parameters are obtained by the method of moments.
The daily rainfall data are generated by following the steps set out below, assuming that the
initial state is dry (that is, state one).
Step 1: Generate a uniformly distributed random number between 0 and 1. Using the
appropriate TPM for the month, determine the state of the next day.
Step 2: If the state is wet, go to step 3. Otherwise, set the rainfall depth to zero and go to
step 1.
35
Step 3: Calculate the rainfall depth by using the linear distribution for the intermediate
states and shifted Gamma distribution for the largest state.
Step 4: Repeat steps 1 to 3 until the required length of daily rainfall data is generated.
The generated daily rainfall is adjusted (by multiplying the generated rainfalls by an
adjustment factor) so that the model reproduces the mean and standard deviation of the
historical annual rainfall data. The adjustment factor is obtained as a ratio of the standard
deviation of the observed and generated annual rainfall. Thus:
stdev o
F= (4.7)
stdev g
The generated daily rainfall is multiplied by the ratio:
{H + (Ti G ) F }
Ratio = (4.8)
Ti
Where H is the historical mean annual rainfall, G generated mean annual rainfall and Ti the
annual rainfall for year i.
4.4 Sub-daily rainfall model

DRIP conceptualises rainfall as a series of storm and interstorm events (Henecker 2001). In
terms of the observed rainfall record, a storm is defined as any period of positive rainfall
which is separated by a minimum dry period of 2 hours. There are three random event
variables: the interstorm duration (

t a ), the storm duration ( t d ) and the average storm
t
intensity (i), with the storm depth (d) defined as the product of i and d . Thus the storm is
considered a series of rectangular intensity pulses (DRIP). The second stage of the model
determines the temporal distribution of rainfall within each event using a disaggregation
scheme.
DRIP breaks the pluviograph data into a series of events and the method of maximum
likelihood can be used to obtain model parameters for simulation. This method relies on
formulation of the model likelihood. Interstorm and storm durations are considered
independent within DRIP, and a mixture of the Generalised Pareto (GP) distribution and the
PX ( X x| M, M )
Power Law is used for the cumulative distribution function (see
Lambert and Kuczera, 1998 for details):
1 x
ln 1 PX ( X x| M, M ) = ln 1 1 3 x 4
1 2
1 < 0, 2 , 3 , 4 > 0 (4.9)

The parameter ranges shown above are required to ensure that the cumulative distribution
function is monotonically increasing and hence provides a valid probability distribution.
Maximum likelihood is again used for the storm intensities parameter estimation. The storm
intensities are modelled as being conditionally dependent on storm duration – as detailed
below. The GP distribution was used for the distribution function of storm intensities:
1 x
ln 1 PX ( X x | td , M , M ) = ln 1 1 (4.10)
1 2
36
td
where 1 < 0, 2 > 0.x and are the storm intensity and duration respectively. A
µ = fn ( ln ( td ) ) = fn ( ln ( td ) )
broken line function ( and ) is used to model the
µ
dependence on duration to the mean ( ) and the standard deviation ( ) of this GP
distribution.
Once DRIP simulates a storm duration and intensity, the event is broken down to reproduce
the short-timescale temporal characteristics of the data using a conditional random walk on
a dimensionless mass curve. This mass curve, with the non-dimensionalised storm duration
# = t td t 0 < t < td ), and
on the x-axis (where is the time since the start of the event
$ = d (t ) / d (td ) d (t )
where is the cumulative rainfall up until time t . This curve is
considered a stochastic process also, hence a random walk is used to generate it. The storm
is broken into intervals, and an associated depth jump is determined for each interval
(according to a lognormal jumping distribution). Although quite important in IFD curves, and
intrastorm temporal variability, disaggregation will not be discussed in detail. The focus of
this study is on the greater aggregation scales, of the order of storm event durations. Further
details of this disaggregation can be found within Heneker et al. (2001).
4.5 Annual climate model

A lag-one multivariate model is used to generate annual climate data:
Xt = AXt-1 + B t (4.11)
where Xt is a (3x1) matrix of standardised climate data for year t, A and B are (3x3)
coefficient matrices to preserve the correlations, and t is a random component with zero
mean and unit variance.
The matrices A and B are determined from the following:
A = M1 M 0 1 (4.12)
BBT = M 0 M1 M 0 1 M1T (4.13)
where M0 and M1 are the lag zero and lag one cross correlation matrices respectively. The
elements of M0 and M1 corresponding to variables i and j are given by:
1 n
m0ij = Xi X j (4.14)
n t =1
n 1
1
m1ij = Xi X j 1 (4.15)
n 1 t =1
The matrix A can be obtained from Eq (4.10). The matrix BBT is symmetric and should be
positive semi-definite for solving for B. The matrix B can be obtained by the Cholesky
decomposition where the matrix B is assumed to be lower triangular. The elements bij of B
are obtained from the recursive relationships:
bij = 0, j > i (4.16)
b11 = c11 (4.17)
where cij is the element of matrix B = BBT. The remaining elements in the first column of B
are given by:
b1j = c1j / b11 (4.18)
th
For j > 1, the j diagonal element is obtained from
37
j 1
b jj = c jj b 2jk , j = 2, 3 (4.19)
k =1
The solution is complete when j = 3. Otherwise, the other elements of column j of B are
computed from:
j 1
cij bik b jk
k =1
bij = j=2 (4.20)
b jj
Once matrices A and B are determined, standardised normally distributed values are
generated using Eq (4.9). The skewness is then input to the generated values by the Wilson-
Hilferty transformation, rescaled by the standard deviation and the mean added to obtain the
generated annual climate data.
4.6 Monthly climate model

Monthly climate data is generated by disaggregating generated annual data using the
modified method of fragment. The annual climate data is generated using the model
descried in Section 4.4.
The observed monthly climate data are standardised year by year so that the sum of the
monthly climate data in any year equals to unity. This is carried out by dividing the monthly
climate data in a year by the corresponding annual climate data. In the case of maximum
temperature, the mean annual maximum temperature is first multiplied by 12. By doing so,
from a record of n years, one will have n sets of fragments of monthly climate data. The
generated annual climate data are disaggregated by selecting a fragment whose annual
climate data are closer to the generated annual climate data by using the following indices:
2
3 xkj xi j
i = (4.21)
j =1 s xj
2
3 y kj y ij 1
%i = 1
(4.22)
j =1 s yj
where xkj is the generated annual climate data for variable j and year k, s yj is the standard
deviation of the observed annual climate data for variable j, 1 is the disaggregated y kj
j
monthly climate data for variable j for the last month of year k-1, and s y is the standard
deviation of the observed monthly climate data for variable j for the last month of the year.
A set of fragments are selected for which the sum ( i + %i) is minimum and multiplying the
generated annual climate data by each set of the 12 fragments to give generated monthly
climate data.
4.7 Daily climate model

Daily climate data is generated using a first order autoregressive multivariate model
conditioned on rainfall state and nested in monthly and annual models.
38
The model developed is a nested model in which the daily model is nested in a monthly
model, which in turn is nested in an annual model. This is an aggregation model in contrast
to the disaggregation model used to generate monthly climate data.
According to the rainfall states of the present day, the daily evaporation and maximum
temperature are divided into two groups. A multivariate model is used for each group, with
the seasonality taken into account by considering each month separately. Since the model
generated large maximum temperatures, these are limited empirically to be slightly larger
than the observed maximum and slightly smaller than the observed minimum values.
~
Once the daily climate data (Y ji ) is generated for a month, the monthly climate data ( X ij ) is
obtained by summing the daily climate data. The generated monthly climate data is
modified using the Thomas-Fiering monthly model:
~
X ij µ ( X ij ) X ij µ ( X ij 1 ) 2 1/ 2 X ij µ ' ( X ij )
=& + (1 &
i 1 i
j, j 1 j, j 1 ) (4.23)
( X ij ) ( X ij 1 ) ' ( X ij )
where µ ( X ij ) is the historical mean monthly value for climate variable i and month j,
µ ' ( X ij ) is the theoretical mean monthly value for climate variable i and month j, ( X ij ) is
the historical standard deviation of monthly climate data for climate variable i and month j,
' ( X ij ) is the theoretical standard deviation of monthly climate data for climate variable i
and month j, & ij , j 1 is the historical correlation coefficient of monthly climate data for climate
variable i between months j and j-1, and X ij is the modified monthly climate data for climate
variable i and month j.
The theoretical values of the mean and standard deviation are given by:
µ ' ( X ij ) = Nd ( j )µ d (Y ji ) + Nw ( j )µw (Y ji ) (4.24)
' 2 ( X ij ) ) 2
d {
(Y ji ) N d ( j ) + 2 & (Y ji )[ N d ( j ) 1] + 2 & 2 (Y ji )[ N d ( j ) 2] + 2 & 3 (Y ji )[ N d ( j ) 3] + }
2
w j
i
{
(Y ) N w ( j ) + 2 & (Y )[ N w ( j ) 1] + 2 & (Y )[ N w ( j ) 2] + 2 & (Y )[ N w ( j )
i
j
2 i
j
3
j
i
3]}+
2 & (Y ji ) d (Y ji ) w (Y ji )
(4.25)
where Nd(j) is the number of dry days in month j, Nw(j) is the number of dry days in month j,
µ d (Y ji ) is the mean of daily climate data for climate variable i and month j for dry
days, µw (Y ji ) is the mean of daily climate data for climate variable i and month j for wet
days, d (Y ji ) is the standard deviation of daily climate data for climate variable i and month
j for dry days, w (Y ji ) is the standard deviation of daily climate data for climate variable i
and month j for wet days, and & (Y ji ) is the lag one autocorrelation coefficient of daily climate
data for climate variable i and month j.
~
The generated daily climate data is multiplied by the ratio X ij / X ij . Once the data for the
twelve months of a year have been generated, the monthly climate data can be aggregated
~
to obtain the annual value (Z ki ) . The aggregated annual value is modified by using a lag
one autoregressive model.
~
Z ki µ (Z i ) Z ki µ (Z i ) Zki µ ' (Z i )
= & (Z i ) 1
+ [1 & 2 (Z i )]1 / 2 (4.26)
(Z i ) (Z i ) ' (Z i )
where µ (Z i ) is the historical mean annual value for climate variable i, µ ' (Z i ) is the
theoretical mean annual value for climate variable i and month j, (Z i ) is the historical
standard deviation of annual climate data for climate variable i,
39
' (Z i ) is the theoretical standard deviation of annual climate data for climate variable i
j, & (Z i ) is the historical lag one autocorrelation coefficient of annual climate data for climate
variable i, and Zki is the modified annual climate data for climate variable i and year k.
The theoretical values of the mean and standard deviation are given by:
12
µ (Z i ) = µ ( X ij ) (4.27)
j =1
12 12 12
2
(Z i ) ) 2
( X ij ) + 2 ( X ij ) ( X ij 1 ) & ij , j 1 +2 ( X ij ) ( X ij 2 ) & ij , j 1& ij 1, j 2 +
j =1 j =2 j =3
12
2 ( X ij ) ( X ij 3 ) & ij , j 1& ij 1, j 2 & ij 2, j 3
j =4
(4.29)
~
The generated monthly climate data is multiplied by the ratio Zki / Zki . This will preserve the
annual characteristics. Rather than adjusting twice, the adjustment can be carried out in one
~ ~
step by multiplying the generated climate data for each month (j) by the ratio X ij Z ki / X ij Zki .
The daily rainfall is generated using a two-part model. The occurrence of the rainfall is
modelled by a first order Markov chain. On rain days, the amount of rainfall is generated by
using a gamma distribution. The generated daily rainfall is adjusted to match the monthly
rainfall. The monthly rainfall data are aggregated to obtain the annual rainfall and this is
modified using Eqns. (4.21) to (4.23).
4.8 Multi-site daily rainfall model

A multi-site two-part model is used to generate daily rainfall at a number of sites. The model
has two parts: rainfall occurrence part and the rainfall amounts part.
A first-order two-state Markov chain is used to determine the occurrence of rainfall. For each
pWk | D
site k, the Markov chain has the two transition probabilities: , the conditional probability
k
p
of a wet day given that the previous day was dry; , the conditional probability of a wet
W |W
day given that the previous day was wet. The unconditional probability of a wet day for the
site k, can be derived as
k
p
*k = W |D
(4.30)
1+ p k
W |D pWk |W
Given a network of N locations, there are N(N - 1)/2 pair wise correlations that should be
maintained in the generated rainfall occurrences. This is achieved by using correlated
uniform random numbers (ut) in simulating the occurrence process. The uniform variates ut(k)
can be derived from standard Gaussian variates wt(k) through the transformation
ut(k) = +[wt(k)] (4.31)
where +[.] indicates the standard normal cumulative distribution function. Let the correlation
between the Gaussian variates, wt, for the station pair k and l be
,(k,l) = Corr[wt(k), wt(l)] (4.32)
Together with the transition probabilities for stations k and l, a particular ,(k,l) will yield a
corresponding correlation between the synthetic binary series (Xt) for the two sites.
-(k,l) = Corr[Xt(k), Xt(l)] (4.33)
40
Let
- o (k , l ) denote the observed value of -(k,l), which will have been estimated from the
X o (k ) X o (l )
observed binary series t and t at stations k and l. Hence the problem reduces to
finding the N(N –1) correlations of ,(k,l) which together with the corresponding pairs of
transition probabilities reproduces

- o (k , l ) = -(k,l) for each pair of stations. Direct
computation of ,(k,l) from

- o (k , l )
is not possible. In practice, one can invert the
relationship between ,(k,l) and -(k,l) using a nonlinear root finding algorithm or obtain
,(k,l) by simulation. In this report, the correlation between the corresponding normal
variates is obtained by an iterative method using simulation and the method of bisection.
Realisations of the vector wt may be generated from the multivariate normal distribution
having mean vector 0 and variance-covariance matrix ., whose elements are the
correlations ,(k,l).
The multivariate normal variates are generated from
wt = B t (4.34)
where B is a coefficient matrix and t independent normal vector. The coefficient matrix is
obtained from
BBT = . (4.35)
The elements of B can be obtained by singular value decomposition. The seasonality in daily
rainfall occurrence is taken into account by considering each month separately.
The rainfall amounts on wet days are generated by using a Gamma distribution whose
probability density function for site k is given by
k
( xk / % k ) exp( x k / % k )
1
f (x ) =
k
(4.36)
% k /( k )
where k is the shape parameter and %k the scale parameter. The mean and variance of the
Gamma distribution are given by
µ(xk) = %;
k k 2
(xk) = %
k k2
(4.37)
The spatial correlation in the daily rainfall amounts is preserved by using a vector of
correlated uniform variates vt. As in the rainfall occurrence model, it is convenient to obtain
the elements of this vector from a corresponding realisation of correlated standard normal
variates zt(k) as vt(k) = +[zt(k)]. This vector zt is drawn from a multivariate normal distribution
with mean 0 and variance-covariance matrix Z, whose elements are
0(k,l) = Corr[zt(k), zt(l)] (4.37)
As was the case of ., direct computation of Z is not feasible since the zt are not observed.
The correlations in Eq (9) can be estimated using a similar procedure to the one used in the
rainfall occurrence model. However, the response surface for the rainfall amount is flat and it
may not be possible to obtain the correlation necessary between the normal variates (Wilks
1998). Under these circumstances, the correlation between the normal variates is obtained
by multiplying the correlation between the rainfall amounts by 1.05. This adjustment seems
to work well for the present study. The correlated multivariate normal variates are obtained
from independent normal variates as above.
The generated daily rainfall amounts when aggregated into monthly and annual totals will
not in general preserve the monthly and annual characteristics. Hence, the daily amount
model is nested in a monthly and annual model as in the daily climate model. This will only
improve the monthly and daily characteristics of the generated rainfall and will have no effect
on the spatial correlation for the monthly and annual rainfall.
41
5 Assessment of
generated data
This chapter describes the statistics of the stochastically generated data displayed by SCL and
discusses how they can be compared with the statistics in the historical time series data to
assess the quality of the stochastically generated data.
5.1 Statistics displayed by SCL

SCL displays the mean and percentiles of various statistics of the generated data and the
corresponding values in the historical data (as tabulated values and whisker plots). The
statistics can also be exported to a text file. The annual, monthly and daily statistics displayed
by SCL are given in Tables 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 respectively.
5.2 Assessment of stochastically generated data

The stochastic climate data must have the same characteristics (in terms of mean, variance,
skew, long-term persistency, etc…) as the historical data from which they are based. Each
stochastic replicate (sequence) is different and has different characteristics compared to the
historical data, but the average of each characteristic from all the stochastic replicates should
be the same as the historical data.
SCL compares the mean (average) of various statistics in the stochastic replicates with the
statistic in the historical time series data, and assesses whether the statistics in the historical
data are reproduced satisfactorily in the stochastically generated data. If the difference
between the statistic in the stochastically generated data and the statistic in the historical data
is within the tolerance specified in Tables 5.1 to 5.3, the model in SCL is considered to have
reproduced that statistic satisfactorily. The number of statistics assessed in the various
models is given in Table 5.4.
The user is strongly encouraged to make their own assessment of the quality of the
stochastically generated data by comparing the statistics displayed by SCL for the
stochastically generated data and the historical data. This is because different statistics are
important for different applications (e.g., high flow for floods, low flow and long-term
persistency for droughts, etc…).
SCL can be used to generate any number of replicates of any length. However, to properly
assess the quality of the stochastically generated data, the following rules should be followed:
42
Assessment of generated data
• the replicate length must be the same as the length of historical data
• there must be a large number of replicates (at least 100)
• the historical input data must be sufficiently long (at least 30 years).
Table 5-3: Annual statistics
Statistic Tolerance
Mean (%) 5
Standard deviation 5
Coefficient of skewness 0.5
Lag one autocorrelation coefficient 0.15
Maximum (%) 10
Minimum (%) 10
Range (%) 10
2-year low rainfall sums (%) 10
For the daily rainfall model, the following statistic is also evaluated
Statistic Tolerance
Mean annual number of wet days (%) 5
For the climate models, the range and low rainfall sums are not evaluated, but the cross
correlations between climate variables are evaluated.
Statistic Tolerance
Cross correlation between climate variables 0.2
Table 5-4: Monthly statistics
Statistic Tolerance
Mean (%) 7.5
Standard deviation 7.5
Maximum (%) 10
Minimum (%) 10
Proportion of months with no rainfall (%) 5
For the climate models, the proportion of months with no rainfall is not evaluated, but the
cross correlations between climate variables are evaluated.
43
Statistic Tolerance
Cross correlation between climate variables 0.2
Table 5-5: Daily statistics (for daily rainfall model)
Statistic Tolerance
Mean number of wet days (day) 1
Maximum daily rainfall (%) 10
Mean daily rainfall (of wet days) (%) 7.5
Standard deviation (of wet days) (%) 7.5
Coefficient of skewness (of wet days) 0.75
Mean daily rainfall on solitary wet days (mm) 0.75
Mean daily rainfall on wet days bounded by wet day on one side (mm) 0.75
Mean daily rainfall on wet days bounded by wet day on both sides
0.75
(mm)
Correlation between rainfall depth and wet spell duration 0.2
Mean dry spell length (day) 1
Standard deviation of dry spell length (day) 1
Skewness of dry spell length 0.75
Mean wet spell length (day) 0.5
Standard deviation of wet spell length (day) 0.5
Skewness of wet spell length 0.75
Longest dry spell length (day) 5
Longest wet spell length (day) 1
Table 5-6: Daily statistics (for daily climate model)
Daily rainfall
Statistic Tolerance
Mean daily rainfall (of wet days) (%) 7.5
Standard deviation (of wet days) (%) 7.5
Coefficient of skewness (of wet days) 0.75
Mean number of wet days (%) 5
Maximum (%) 10
Daily climate
Statistic Tolerance
Mean (%) 7.5
Standard deviation (%) 7.5
44
Assessment of generated data
Statistic Tolerance
Maximum (%) 10
Minimum (%) 10
Cross correlation 0.2
Table 5-7: Number of statistics assessed
Model Number of Number of monthly Number of

annual statistics statistics assessed daily statistics
assessed assessed
Annual rainfall 12
Monthly rainfall 12 84
(7 x 12)
Daily rainfall 13 84 204

(7 x 12) (17 x 12)
Annual climate* 21
(6 x 3 + 3)
Monthly climate* 21 252

(6 x 3 + 3) (6 x 3 x 12 + 3 x 12)
Daily climate* 21 252 216

(6 x 3 + 3) (6 x 3 x 12 + 3 x 12) (5 x 12 + 6 x 2 x 12 + 12)
* Based on the generation of rainfall and two other climate variables
45
6 References
The following references are CRCCH technical reports and working documents. They
provide a review of stochastic climate data generation methods, description of stochastic
climate models (including models that are not in SCL) and description of model development
and testing carried out by CRCCH in collaboration with other researchers.
The key references are highlighted in bold.
Most of the references can be downloaded as pdf files from the CRCCH website
(www.catchment.crc.org).
6.1 Reviews and general reports

Srikanthan, R. and McMahon, T.A. (1985) Stochastic Generation of Rainfall and
Evaporation Data. Australian Water Resources Council, Department of Resources
and Energy, Canberra, Technical Report 84.
Srikanthan, R. and McMahon, T.A. (2000) Stochastic Generation of Climate Data: A
Review. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Technical Report
00/16.
Srikanthan, R. and Chiew, F.H.S. (2003) Stochastic Models for Generating Annual, Monthly
and Daily Rainfall and Climate Data. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment
Hydrology, Technical Report 03/16.
6.2 Annual rainfall model

Srikanthan, R., Kuczera, G.A., Thyer, M.A. and McMahon, T.A. (2001) Modelling Victorian
Annual Rainfall Data. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology,
Working Document 01/1.
Srikanthan, R., McMahon, T.A., Pegram, G.G.C., Kuczera, G. and Thyer, M.A. (2002)
Generation of Annual Rainfall Data for Australian Stations. Cooperative Research
Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Working Document 02/3.
Srikanthan, R., Thyer, M.A., Kuczera, G.A. and McMahon, T.A. (2002) Application of
Hidden State Markov Model to Australian Annual Rainfall Data. Cooperative
Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Working Document 02/4.
Srikanthan, R., Kuczera, G.A., Thyer, M.A. and McMahon, T.A. (2002) Stochastic
Generation of Annual Rainfall Data. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment
Hydrology, Technical Report 02/6.
46
References
Thyer, M., Kuczera, G. and Wang, Q.J., 2002. Quantifying parameter uncertainty in
stochastic models using the Box-Cox transformation. Journal of Hydrology,
265(1-4): 246-257.
6.3 Monthly rainfall model

Srikanthan, R., McMahon, T.A. and Sharma, A. (2002) Stochastic Generation of Monthly
Rainfall Data. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Technical
Report 02/8.
6.4 Daily rainfall model

Siriwardena, L. and Srikanthan, R. (2002) Generation of Spatially Averaged Daily Rainfalls
for the Yarra Region. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology,
Working Document 02/1.
Zhou, S.L., Srikanthan, R. and McMahon, T.A. (2002) Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall.
Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Working Document
02/5.
Siriwardena, L., Srikanthan, R. and McMahon, T.A. (2002) Evaluation of Two Daily Rainfall
Data Generation Models. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology,
Technical Report 02/14.
6.5 Sub-daily rainfall model

Heneker, T. M., M. F. Lambert, and G. Kuczera, 2001. A point rainfall model for risk-based
design. Journal of Hydrology 247(1-2):54-71.
Lambert, M., and G. Kuczera, 1998. Seasonal Generalized Exponential Probability Models
with Application to Interstorm and Storm Durations. Water Resources Research
34(1):143-148.
Frost, A., Srikanthan, R. and Cowertwait, P. (2004) Stochastic Generation of Point Rainfall
Data ai Subdaily Timescales: A Comparison of DRIP and NSRP. Cooperative
Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Technical Report 04/09.
6.6 Climate model

Srikanthan, R. and Zhou, S.L. (2003) Stochastic Generation of Climate Data. Cooperative
Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Working Document 03/12.
6.7 Multi-site daily rainfall model

Srikanthan, R. Stochastic generation of daily rainfall data at a number of sites. Cooperative
Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Technical Report 05/0?.
47

SCL User Guide

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

SCL User Guide

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Prepared by

The Product Manager of SCL is Sri Srikanthan.

Stochastic Climate Library (SCL)

3 Using SCL .............................................................7

4 Description of models in SCL ...............................32

4.2 Monthly rainfall model ..................................................................................................... 33

5 Assessment of generated data .............................42

What is stochastic climate data?

What is the use of stochastic climate data?

1.1 The user guide

1.2 Stochastic Climate Library (SCL)

• Observed and generated data empirical distributions can be compared at various

1.2.4 Limitations and cautionary notes

1.3 Data requirements

1.3.1 Input data

1.3.2 Generated data

1.4 References and training

2.2 Licence agreement

2.4.1 Framework installation

2.5 Uninstalling SCL

Figure 3-1: Start up window for SCL

3.1.1 Steps in running SCL

Note As a general rule, at least 30 years of historical time series should be

3.2 Running the annual rainfall model

Step 1 (Running the model)

Step 2 (Inputting the data)

Step 3 (Estimating the model parameters)

Step 4 (Generating stochastic data)

Step 5 (Viewing graphical display of stochastically generated data)

Step 6 (Viewing and assessing statistics)

Step 7 (Viewing generated data summary)

Step 8 (Writing results to a file)

Figure 3-2: Input data screen.

Figure 3-3: Open dialogue box for inputting data

Figure 3-4: Graphical display of time series data

Figure 3-5: Estimation of model parameter screen

Figure 3-6: Dialogue

Figure 3-7: Graphical display of stochastically generated data

Figure 3-8: Graphical display of the distribution of stochastically generated data

Figure 3-9: Statistics displayed as tabulated values (Grid)

Figure 3-10: Statistics displayed as whisker plots (Percentiles)

Figure 3-11: Summary assessment of quality of stochastically generated data

Figure 3-12: Exporting data screen

3.3 Running the monthly rainfall model

Step 1 (Running the model)

Step 2 (Inputting the data)

Step 3 (Estimating the model parameters)

Step 4 (Generating stochastic data)

Step 5 (Viewing graphical display of stochastically generated data)

Step 6 (Viewing and assessing statistics)

Step 7 (Viewing generated data summary)

Step 8 (Writing results to a file)

3.4 Running the daily rainfall model

Step 1 (Running the model)

Step 2 (Inputting the data)

Step 3 (Estimating the model parameters)

Step 4 (Generating stochastic data)

Step 5 (Viewing graphical display of stochastically generated data)

Step 6 (Viewing and assessing statistics)

Step 7 (Viewing generated data summary)

Step 8 (Writing results to a file)

3.5 Running the sub-daily rainfall model

Step 1 (Running the model)

Step 2 (Inputting the data)