Professional Documents
Culture Documents
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Ver. 5-15-18
Outline
Slide
Federal Lands Have Many Values 4
Context: The U.S. Economy 16
Context: The West’s Economy 23
A Theory of Rural Development 36
The Role of Federal Lands in Rural 46
Development
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Two types of public
lands:
FEDERAL
48% of the West
Managed for multiple uses &
values
STATE
6.4%
Managed to turn a profit,
mostly with commercial uses
Federal Lands Have
Many Values
Commodity Production
Personal
Personal Income from
Income from Employment
Employment in
in Resource
ResourceExtraction, Non-Metro
Extraction, West 2015West, 2016
Non-Metro
Mining, oil,
gas, timber
5%
https://headwaterseconomics.org
We define non-metro as rural. Metro counties contain a core population of 50,000 or more people or are “outlying” counties and tied economically to the core areas by labor force commuting.
Data from: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. Agriculture in 2016 represented 3% of total personal income in the non-metro, or rural West.
Wildlife and Biodiversity
https://headwaterseconomics.org
https://headwaterseconomics.org
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Engage Youth and Diversity
https://headwaterseconomics.org
2% of GDP
In the West:
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Outdoor recreation figures from: https://outdoorindustry.org/advocacy/. Visitation to public lands from: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/dotAsset/5e3d4978-4cb7-4784-bf36-b086cf332fc9.pdf. Federal and expenditures from (page 22) of:
http://www.coloradotpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/USFS-Econ-Impacts-Rec.pdf. GDP figure from: https://www.bea.gov/outdoor-recreation/.
Ecosystem Services
Water purification,
erosion & flood control,
carbon storage, climate
regulation, pollination,
medicine, etc.
National Forests
provide 33% of our
water in the West
https://headwaterseconomics.org
National Forest figures from: https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/national-forests-grasslands/water-facts. West figures from: https://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45417. Image from: http://www.clipartpanda.com/clipart_images/watersheds-are-complex-22834047.
National Forests provide water for 66 million people in 3,400 communities worth $7.2 billion annually
Quality of Life
Public lands as a
setting, making a
community a pleasant
place to live
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Business Recruitment
The outdoors as
a way to attract
business
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Recruitment of Talent
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Recruitment of Talent
Colorado Springs, Colorado
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Context:
The U.S. Economy
95% of New Jobs in U.S. in SERVICES
Healt care
Health h care
&& social
social assistance
assistance (20.4%)
(20.4%) 6,056,400
6,056,400
Accommodat ion
Accommodation & food
& food services
services (10.9%)
(10.9%) 3,226,000
3,226,000
Real
Real estate
estate & rental
& rental & leasing
& leasing (10.7%)
(10.7%) 3,178,800
3,178,800
Prof essional
Professional && technical
technical services
services (10.0%
(10.0% ) ) 2,971,100
2,971,100
Administ rative
Administrative && waste
waste services
services (8.2%)
(8.2%) 2,419,400
2,419,400
Otherservices,
Other services, except
except public
public admin.
admin. (6. 6%)
(6.6%) 1,960,600
1,960,600
Finance
Finance & insurance
& insurance (6. 2%)
(6.2%) 1,845,100
1,845,100
Educational services (5.6%
) )
Educational services (5.6% 1,650,700
1,650,700 Services
Transportation
Transportation & warehousing
& warehousing (3.8%)
(3.8%) 1,125,300
1,125,300
Arts,entertainment,
Arts, entertainment&, recreation
& recreat ion (3.8%)
(3.8%) 1,123,900
1,123,900 Non-Services
Government
Government && government
government enterprises
enterprises (3.3%)
(3.3%) 991,000
991,000
Retail
Retail Trade
Trade (3.0%)
(3.0%) 891,200
891,200
Mining
Mining (2.4%)
(2.4%) 696,200
696,200
Managementofofcompanies
Management companies & enterprises
& enterprises (2.2%)
(2.2%) 642,500
642,500
Wholesale
Wholesale trade
trade (1.9%)
(1.9%) 552,200
552,200
Forest ry,fishing,
Forestry, fishing,
&& related
related activities
activities (.5%)
(.5%) 160,500
160,500
Construction
Construction (.4% (.4%
) ) 132,200
132,200
Utilit ies
Utilities -27,300
-27,300
Farm
Farm employment
employment -418,000
-418,000
Information
Information -671,200
-671,200
Manufacturing
Manufacturing -3,830,400
-3,830,400
New jobs 2000-2016
-6,000,000
-6,000,000 -4,000,000
-4,000,000 -2,000,000 0
-2,000,000 0 2,000,000
2, 000,000 4, 000,000
4,000,000 6, 000,000
6,000,000 8, 000,000
8,000,000 https://headwaterseconomics.org
U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, Washington, D.C. Table SA25N.
Jobs & Value of Production Track Closely
All industries in U.S.
Total Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
$20,000 160,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
Jobs 120,000
$10,000 80,000
$8,000
60,000
$6,000
40,000
$4,000
20,000
$2,000
$0 0
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
https://headwaterseconomics.org
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N and Regional Economic Accounts https://www.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm.
Health Care And Social Assistance Value Added (Billions
of 2014 $s)
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
19
48
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
2014
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
Jobs
19
92
Health Care
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
Value
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Health Care And Social Assistance Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Value
Added (Billions of 2014 $s)
$200
$400
$600
$800
$0
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
19
48
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
Jobs
19
88
19
90
19
Employment, 1948-2014
92
19
94
Professional &
19
96
19
98
Technical Services
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Value
20
10
20
12
20
Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Industry Value Added vs.
14
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Manufacturing is the Exception
Manufacturing Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014
$2,500
Manufacturing 25,000
Productivity
Value higher than
88% of job
loss due to
automation
$1,000
Jobs 10,000
$500 5,000
$0 0
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Figure is for U.S. https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/changing-role-manufacturing/ Automation figure from: Hicks MJ and Devaraj S. 2015.
The Myth and the Reality of Manufacturing in America. Muncie, IN: Center of Business and Economic Research, Ball State University. http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf.
Other Sectors Are Outperforming Manufacturing
Professional, Scien
Professional, Scien fic, & Technical
fic, & Technical Services Services
Health HealthManufacturing
& Social Assistance & Social Assistance Manufacturing
$33.17
$33.17
$22.43
$20.04 19.8
18.7
$22.43
$20.04 12.3 19.8
18.7
4.1%
3.1% 3.2%
12.3
Jobs
Western States
Non-Western
States
https://headwaterseconomics.org
U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, Washington, D.C. Table SA25N.
90% of New Jobs in West in SERVICES
Health care
Health & social
care
Health & social
care & Health
assistance care
assistance
social & social
(22.0%)
(22.0%)
assistance assistance (22.0%)
(22.0%) 1,689,711
1,689,7111,689,711 1,689,711
RealReal
estate &estate
estate
Real rental
& rental
& &Real
& rental
leasing &estate
(10.3%)
leasing & rental
(10.3%)
leasing (10.3%)& leasing (10.3%) 788,790
788,790 788,790 788,790
Accommodation
Accommodation& food
Accommodation Accommodation
services
& food (10.2%)
services
& food &
(10.2%)
services food services (10.2%)
(10.2%) 786,689
786,689 786,689 786,689
Administrative & waste
Administrative & waste
Administrative Administrative
&services (6.8%)
services
waste & (6.8%)
(6.8%)
services waste services (6.8%) 519,518
519,518519,518 519,518
Other services,
Other except
services,
Other Other
public
except
services, services,
admin.
public
except admin.
public except(6.4%)
(6.4%)
(6.4%)
admin. public admin. (6.4%) 493,550
493,550493,550 493,550
Educational services
Educational services
Educational Educational
(5.2%) (5.2%) services (5.2%)
(5.2%)
services 401,286
401,286401,286 401,286
Retail Trade
Retail (5.1%)
Trade
Retail Retail Trade (5.1%)
(5.1%)(5.1%)
Trade 391,378
391,378391,378 391,378 Services
Government Government
& government
Government & government
Government & (4.8%)
enterprises government
enterprises
& government enterprises (4.8%)
(4.8%)(4.8%)
enterprises 370,565
370,565370,565 370,565
Finance & insurance
Finance
Finance (4.6%)
& insurance (4.6%)
Finance
& insurance & insurance (4.6%)
(4.6%) 356,965
356,965356,965 356,965 Non-Services
Transportation & warehousing
Transportation
Transportation (4.1%)
& warehousing (4.1%)(4.1%)
&Transportation
warehousing & warehousing (4.1%) 314,538
314,538314,538 314,538
Arts,Arts,
entertainment,
Arts, & recreation
entertainment, &Arts,
entertainment, (4.0%)
recreation (4.0%)(4.0%)
&entertainment,
recreation & recreation (4.0%) 308,576
308,576308,576 308,576
Wholesale trade
Wholesale
Wholesale (2.6%)
trade (2.6%)
trade Wholesale
(2.6%) trade (2.6%) 195,846
195,846195,846 195,846
Mining (1.6%)
Mining (1.6%)(1.6%) Mining (1.6%)
Mining 126,138
126,138126,138 126,138
Forestry, fishing,
Forestry,
Forestry, &fishing,
fishing,related&activities
& related
Forestry,
related (1.0%)
activities
fishing,(1.0%)
& related
activities (1.0%) activities (1.0%) 75,558
75,558 75,558 75,558
Management
Managementof companies
Management of companies & enterprises
& enterprises
of Management
companies & of (.6%)
(.6%) (.6%)
enterprises
companies & enterprises (.6%) 43,435
43,435 43,435 43,435
Utilities (.1%)
Utilities (.1%) (.1%)
Utilities Utilities (.1%) 8,695
8,695 8,695 8,695
Construction
Construction
Construction -22,355
-22,355-22,355
Construction -22,355
Farm employment
Farm employment
Farm employment -43,079
-43,079-43,079
Farm employment -43,079
Information
Information
Information -64,079
-64,079-64,079
Information New-64,079
jobs 2000-2016
Manufacturing
Manufacturing -591,364
Manufacturing-591,364
-591,364
Manufacturing -591,364 https://headwaterseconomics.org
-1,000,000
-1,000,000
U.S. Department -500,000
-500,000
-1,000,000
of Commerce. 0of 0Economic
-500,000
-1,000,000
2016. Bureau 500,000
0500,000
-500,000
Analysis, 1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
Regional 1,500,000
1,500,000
01,000,000
Economic 2,000,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
500,000
Information System, 2,000,000
1,000,000 1,500,000
Washington, D.C. Table2,000,000
SA25N.
West Personal Income by Source 2016
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Data from: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N
Rural West Personal Income by Source 2016
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Data from: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N . We define non-metro as rural. Metro counties contain a core population of 50,000 or more people or are “outlying”
counties and tied economically to the core areas by labor force commuting.
Personal Income in the West
1,800,000
Doctors, engineers, lawyers,
Services accountants, waiters, barbers,
1,600,000
high-tech workers, etc.
1,400,000
1,000,000
800,000
https://headwaterseconomics.org
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Much of the Growth is From Non-Labor Sources
1,800,000
Driven by:
Millions of 2015 $s
1,000,000
• Baby Boomers
800,000
• Stock market
• Amenity migration
600,000
400,000
Drives other sectors:
construction, health care,
200,000 retail, etc.
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services
There Are Three Types of Non-Labor Income
Investment-related
Dividends, Interest, Rent
20%
of personal income in the West
Age-related
Social Security, Medicare
8%
Hardship-related
Medicaid, income maintenance,
unemployment compensation
5.7%
https://headwaterseconomics.org
https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/non-labor/
Non-Labor Income Will Keep Growing
In 3 years ¼ will be
over 55 years
Baby Boomers
control 80% of the
country’s financial
assets
https://headwaterseconomics.org
75 million are Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964. By 2020, 25% of all workers will be at least 55 years old and every month, more than a quarter-million Americans turn 65. Yet, only 17% of Baby
Boomers are currently retired. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-baby-boomers-retirement-means-for-the-u-s-economy/.
How Many Western Counties Dependent on ...?
Timber
% of counties with >10% of
labor income from lumber and
wood products:
1%
https://headwaterseconomics.org
How Many Western Counties Dependent on ...?
Mining
% of counties with >10% of
labor income from:
Services
% of counties with >50% of
labor income from service
industries:
41%
https://headwaterseconomics.org
How Many Western Counties Dependent on ...?
Non-Labor Income
% of counties with >50% of total
personal income from non-labor
sources:
25%
https://headwaterseconomics.org
A Theory of Rural
Development
Access to Populations Centers is Critical
https://headwaterseconomics.org
4 out of 5 statistic from USTravel.org https://www.ustravel.org/answersheet. Tech worker stat from: Kasarda, J.D., 2000a. Logistics and the rise of aerotropolis. Real Estate Issues 27 (4),
43–49. and Kasarda, J.D., 2000b. Aerotropolis: airport-driven urban development. Cities in the 21st Century. Urban Land Institute, Washington, D.C., pp. 32–41.
Over Time ……
Diverse economy:
Agriculture, resource
industries, tourism, plus …
high-tech
footloose businesses
Agriculture Tourism Transportation
& resource investment income,
infrastructure
extraction retirement, semi-retirement
construction, health care,
retail, etc.
AMENITY MIGRATION
Access to population centers via airports diversifies the
economy beyond resource industries and tourism
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Three Types of Counties in the West
METRO Higher wages
Less volatility
More high-wage services
Fastest-growing
Younger, More educated
Diverse perspectives
and ideas lead to
innovation
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Access to Population Centers is Critical
“For over a century pundits
have been predicting that new
forms of communication would
make urban life irrelevant.
Human capital is
critical
Communities
compete to attract
talent
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Conclusions About the Economy
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Federal Public Lands Are An Economic Asset
https://headwaterseconomics.org
The Role of Federal
Lands in Rural
Development
Only 3% Live in Rural, Isolated Counties
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Non-Metro Counties w/ Federal Lands Grow Faster
County share of federal land in rural western counties:
Bottom 25th percentile Top 25th percentile
Growth 1970-2015
Most
Few
federal
federal
lands
lands
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Does not imply cause & effect
Rural is defined as non-metro. All income figures adjusted for inflation. https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
What About Protected Federal Lands?
National Parks
Wilderness
National Monuments
National Rec. Areas
Wild & Scenic Rivers
National Wildlife Refuges
https://headwaterseconomics.org
What is the Role of Protected Federal Lands?
Multiple Use
61%
* Protected includes: National Parks and Preserves (NPS), Wilderness (NPS, FWS, FS, BLM), National Conservation Areas (BLM), National Monuments
(NPS, FS, BLM), National Recreation Areas (NPS, FS, BLM), National Wild and Scenic Rivers (NPS, FS, BLM), Waterfowl Production Areas (FWS), Wildlife Management Areas (FWS), Research Natural Areas (FS, BLM), Areas of Critical Environmental
Concern (BLM), and National Wildlife Refuges (FWS).
* Somewhat protected includes: Wilderness Study Areas (NPS, FWS, FS, BLM), Inventoried Roadless Areas (FS). https://headwaterseconomics.org
* Multiple use includes Public Domain Lands (BLM), O&C Lands (BLM), National Forests and Grasslands (FS).
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Gap Analysis Program. 2016. Protected Areas Database of the United States (PADUS) version 1.4
Non-Metro Counties w/ Protected Federal Lands
Grew Faster
County share of federal land in rural western counties:
Growth 1970-2015 Bottom 25th percentile Top 25th percentile
Most
Least
protected
protected
federal
federal
lands
lands
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Does not imply cause & effect
Rural is defined as non-metro. All income figures adjusted for inflation. https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Faster Growth with Protected Federal Lands
Non-Metro County
Average Total Personal Income Growth 1970-2015 share of PROTECTED
federal land:
$1,200,000
$1,005,575 Top 25th percentile
$1,000,000
$800,000
$200,000
$209,502
$0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Counties with share of protected federal lands in the top 25th percentile
Counties with share of protected federal lands in the bottom 25th percentile
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Protected Lands Related to Higher Per Capita Income
For each 100,000 acres of Wilderness, National Park, National Monument in a non-
metro county the Per Capita Income increases $4,360
$6,000
Mean Increase in Per Capita Income
Does not imply cause & effect, but proves no decline in economy https://headwaterseconomics.org
https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/
National Parks Create Jobs
In the WEST
In 2016,
104 million visitors spent
$6.7 billion
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Photo: Shutterstock. In the U.S. 307 million visitors spent $16.9 billion, creating 293,300 jobs & $11.1 billion in labor income
https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm and https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/
Conclusions About Federal Lands
The economy of West is diverse and growing
❖ Commodity production
https://headwaterseconomics.org
Ray Rasker, Ph.D.
406 570-7044
ray@headwaterseconomics.org
https://headwaterseconomics.org
https://headwaterseconomics.org
public lands slide show
https:// headwaterseconomics.org