Professional Documents
Culture Documents
JÜRI KLEESMAA
PRESS
TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration
Department of Public Economy
Declaration:
/Jüri Kleesmaa/
Keskkonnaregulatsioonide
majanduslikud meetmed
elektri tootmisel Eestis
JÜRI KLEESMAA
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................7
ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................ 14
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................... 15
1. EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS ON ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION IN ESTONIA UNTIL 2020 ..................................................... 16
1.1. Setting of theses, literature and methods ................................................ 17
1.1.1. Implementation of the best scenario described in the Development
Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector until 2018 will cause a sharp
reduction of CO2 emissions ........................................................................ 17
1.1.2. The cost-competitiveness of oil shale, wood, peat and natural gas
will face a change in 2015 due to increases in environmental charges, ash
handling fees and the CO2 emission allowance price ................................. 19
1.1.3. FITs are effective for introducing renewable energy, but the costs
may not be justified .................................................................................... 20
1.1.4. The use of primary energy method has great advantages in SO2
capturing costs in pulverised oil shale-fired boilers ................................... 21
1.1.5. Additional costs of the CO2 emission allowances influence the
variable costs and might thereby affect the competitiveness of enterprises
participating in the trade with emission allowances ................................... 23
2. RESULTS ..................................................................................................... 24
2.1. Realisation of the best future scenario suggested by the Development
Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector until 2018 will cause a sharp change
in the amount of CO2 emission ..................................................................... 24
2.2. The cost-competitiveness of oil shale, wood, peat and natural gas will
face a significant change in 2015 due to environmental charges, ash handling
fees and prices of CO2 emission allowances ................................................. 26
2.3. FIT is justified for its effectiveness of introducing renewable energy, but
it has an unreasonably high cost in terms of the impact on the consumer
price and its over-compensation to owners of power plants ......................... 27
2.4. The use of primary energy method has great advantages in SO2
capturing costs in pulverised oil shale-fired boilers ...................................... 29
2.5. Additional cost of CO2 allowances influences the variable costs and
competitiveness of enterprises participating in EU-ETS .............................. 32
CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................ 34
SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... 38
REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 48
APPENDIX 1. ”Impact of the CO2 trade on electricity producers depending on
the use of different energy sources in Estonia”. ................................................. 53
APPENDIX 2. “The impact of pollution charges, ash handling and carbon
dioxide on the cost competitiveness of the fuel sources used for energy
production in Estonia”. ....................................................................................... 73
APPENDIX 3. “Subsidising renewable electricity in Estonia”. ......................... 81
5
APPENDIX 4. “Primary method for reduction of SO2 emission and its impact
on CO2 in pulverized oil shale-fired boilers at Narva Power Plant”. ................. 95
APPENDIX 5. “Implications for competitiveness of Estonian energy-intensive
industry after establishment of the CO2 emissions pricing from year 2013
onwards”........................................................................................................... 113
ELULOOKIRJELDUS ..................................................................................... 139
CURRICULUM VITAE .................................................................................. 145
KOKKUVÕTE ................................................................................................. 151
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................... 157
6
INTRODUCTION
90% of Estonian electricity is produced from the local fuel oil shale. The use of
oil shale for electricity production puts pressure on the environment. The
European Union (EU), with its environmental regulations, has set a complicated
task for Estonia – the substitution of oil shale-based electricity with other energy
sources, which require the necessary skills for making technically and
economically reasonable decisions.
Current electricity production in Estonia does not meet the environmental
requirements established by the EU legislation, and Estonia is presently
introducing different regulations that should ensure the respective compliance,
thus electricity production is expected to undergo great changes in the near
future.
The goal of this Doctoral Thesis is to study the effects of the forthcoming
environmental regulations on Estonian electricity production, specifically during
the 2020 timeframe. The Doctoral Thesis embraces four measures: EU-ETS −
the European Union Emission Trading System, FITs − Feed-in-Tariffs, costs
originating from environmental charges (including ash handling and emission-
related costs) and the impact of industrial emission limit values on electricity
production.
So far, the effects of environmental regulations on the electricity production
in Estonia have been studied very little on an academic level1. A part from
academic research the government of Estonia has commission studies about
impacts from environmental regulations on electricity market. Previous
researches does not cover such topics as Feed-in-Tariffs, competitions between
fuel producing firms, SO2 control cost with primary method and at the same time
CO2 generation, electricity production forecast vision up to 2020, which
therefore will be analysed in this thesis. This Doctoral Thesis, based on five
different research works, contributes to the field of activity under observation.
Every research work presented in this Doctoral Thesis focuses on a certain case
study; where the effects of regulations on the electricity production in Estonia
form a connecting theme between these research works.
The European Union (EU), to the membership of which Estonia also belongs
since 1 May 2004, has set the development of common energy and
environmental policy as its main task in the field of energy use for the coming
decades. The envisaged common energy and environmental policy is to be
grounded on clear-cut aspirations and a time schedule towards transition to a
low-carbon sector, i.e. green energy, and energy saving.
A need for a more reasonable use of energy is also conditioned by increased
environmental impacts arising from the use of fossil energy sources compared to
1
The research completed at the Estonian Institute of Economics in 2004 assessed the
effect of environmental regulations on the development of Estonian electricity sector
until 2015, and by taking these regulations into account, projected an electricity
production price.
7
bioenergy2. Combustion of fossil fuels adds stored carbon to the natural carbon
cycle in the biosphere; but the combustion of biofuels does not, since biofuels
form a part of the biosphere’s carbon cycle.
In order to reach the goals listed above, the European Commission (EC)
issued communication COM(2007) 1 (Brussels 2007) on an energy policy for
Europe for the purpose of enhancing sustainability, security of energy supply at
competitive prices in the European Union and for the combating of climate
change3. The plan of the European Parliament to reduce greenhouse gas4
emissions and increase the share of renewable energy5 in energy consumption
became known as the “20-20-20 targets”6. On the basis of these targets, EU’s
leaders committed to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20%
below 1990 levels; 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable
sources7; and a 20% reduction in primary energy8 use from higher energy
efficiency9 – all by the year 2020.
In 2009 the European Commission passed important legal acts to implement
the planned targets. These regulations revised and expanded the Emissions
Trading System (EU-ETS)10 of the European Communities and concentrate on
the efforts of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet
the Commission’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 202011
and promote the use of energy from renewable sources by the year 202012.
2
Bioenergy includes the biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from
agriculture (including vegetal and animal substances), forestry and related industries, as
well as the biodegradable fraction of industrial and municipal waste (Directive
2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council).
3
Based on contemporary knowledge, CO2 is regarded one of the main factors
causing climate change and creating greenhouse effects, as a result of which the average
temperature of the earth is rising.
4
Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), fluorinated greenhouse
gases (HFC, SF6, PFC).
5
Renewable energy embraces water, wind, solar energy, waves, tides, geothermal
heat, landfill gas, gas discharged in the process of waste water treatment and bioenergy.
6
The European Union Climate and Energy Package.
7
The following topic was not discussed in this Doctoral Thesis.
8
Primary Energy derived from a natural source and used by not converting it into
another kind of energy. Estonian primary energy sources are oil shale, peat, firewood,
wood waste and biogas. Imported primary energy sources are coal, natural gas, liquefied
gas, light oil and heavy fuel oil, diesel fuel, motor vehicle petrol and aviation kerosene
are included.
9
Ratio of final energy consumption to primary energy.
10
Directive 2009/29/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April
2009.
11
Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of
23 April 2009.
12
Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April
2009.
8
The Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on industrial
emissions13 also plays an essential role. According to the Directive the integrated
air pollution prevention and control is implemented. As a part of this, the
Directive limits the amounts of air emissions allowed to be discharged by large
combustion plants (over 50 MW) into the surrounding environment.
In compliance with environmental regulations of the EU, Estonia has created
a judicial area in its republic for promoting the use of green energy sector and
for energy conservation. National legislative acts recently passed in this field are
targeted at regulating the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading procedure14
and on meeting the limit and target values of ambient air pollution levels, other
maximum permitted contents of pollutants and dates set for achieving them15.
The regulation on greenhouse gas emission allowance trading establishes
procedures and requirements for application and granting of emission
allowances and guidelines for allocation of emission allowances for free. In
addition, the referred regulation lays down a procedure for the surveillance and
certification of greenhouse gas emissions and for the return of emission
allowances.
Emissions of SO2, NOx and solid particles are regulated by the legislation on
environmental charges. The objective of applying pollution charges16 is to
prevent or reduce possible damage caused by the release of pollutants or waste
into the environment.
In addition to legislative acts, the Estonian Government has adopted several
important development plans, such as the Development Plan of the Estonian
Electricity Sector until 201817 and the Estonian Renewable Energy Development
Plan until 202018. The Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector for
2008–2018 has been approved by the Government of the Republic lays out the
Government’s strategy in one of the most important fields of energy policy –
power generation.
13
Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of
24 November 2010.
14
The Minister of the Environment Regulation No. 44 of 08.07.2011
„Kasvuhoonegaaside heitkoguste ühikutega kauplemise kord” (procedure for greenhouse
gas (GHG) emission allowance trading) took effect on 15.07.2011.
15
The Minister of the Environment Regulation No. 43 „Välisõhu saastatuse taseme
piir- ja sihtväärtused, saasteaine sisalduse muud piirnormid ning nende saavutamise
tähtajad” (the limit and target values of ambient air pollution level, other maximum
permitted contents of pollutants and dates for achieving these targets) of 08.07.2011 took
effect on 15 July 2011.
16
Environmental Charges Act, State Gazette I, 14.03.2011. Statistical Office of the
European Communities i.e. Eurostat uses the concept ‘environmental tax’ that includes
all environment-related taxes, fees, excise duties and state fees. In this research the term
‘pollution charge’ is used instead of ‘pollution tax’.
17
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, passed by the Government of
the Republic of Estonia Order No. 74 of 26.02.2009.
18
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, approved by the Government
of the Republic Order No. 452 of 26.11.2010.
9
The Electricity Market Act plays a vital role in the organisation of Estonian
electricity production.19 This act regulates the generation, transmission, sale,
export, import and transit of electricity and the economic and technical
management of the power system. The act prescribes the principles for the
operation of the electricity market based on the need to ensure an effective
supply of electricity at reasonable prices and meeting environmental
requirements and along with the needs of consumers, and on the balanced use of,
environmentally clean and long-term sustainable energy sources. The Electricity
Market Act also sets out a procedure for electricity producers from renewable
energy sources on acquisition of feed-in-tariffs (FIT) and the tariff amounts.
Estonian electricity production is mainly based on oil shale. 92.5% (Statistics
Estonia, 2011) of the total electric power output of Estonia is generated from the
local fuel – oil shale. By structure, oil shale exerts a significant impact on the
environment – the emission factor20 of CO2 in electricity generation is
1,156 kg/MWhe, which is up to two times higher than the emission factor of
natural gas 573 kg/MWhe (Kleesmaa 2010 and Kleesmaa et al. 2011). In
addition, oil shale fuel has a very high ash content which is 47%21 of fuel weight
(for example, the ash content of wood as a biofuel is ca. 1%). In order to comply
with environmental requirements, the high ash content requires specific ash
handling techniques for ash depositing.
The Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector until 2018
determines the installation and use of capacities and technologies planned for the
energy sector. According to the best future scenario set out in the Development
Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector, the capacity of co-generation plants22
should be increased to 300 MWe by 2014; 2x300 MWe oil shale fluidised bed
combustion units23 should be erected by the end of 2015; by 2012,
desulphurisation and denitrification systems must be installed in four of the
existing old 200 MWe oil shale units; by 2013, the capacity of on-shore wind
turbines must be increased to 400 MWe. Investment decisions grounded on the
best scenario of the Development Plan have in some cases already been carried
out and further activities are under way.
In the first research paper the aggregate table setting out the capacities
planned in the best electricity production scenario of the Development Plan of
Estonian Electricity Sector has been supplemented with the indicators of the
previous periods’ actual operation hours and CO2 emissions found by the official
19
Electricity Market Act, 11.02.2003 State Gazette I 2003, 25, 153.
20
Emmission of unit mass (kg) per primary energy unit (MWh − megawatt-hour).
21
Ash is a fireproof residue from combustion. It is formed of the mineral particles of
fuel in the process of burning.
22
Generation of electric energy on the basis of heat and power cogeneration mode.
23
A fluidised bed unit consists of two fluidised bed boilers, a turbine and an electric
generator.
10
CO2 calculation method24. The referred supplementary calculations enable
assessing the new situation developed by the year 2020 in quantitative terms. On
the basis of the forecasts Estonian electricity production will change
fundamentally, i.e. the share of oil shale-based electricity generation will
decrease to ca. 40%, whereas the share of renewable energy will increase to ca.
31%.
Realisation of the best future scenario depends largely on the effect of the
CO2 trade, which, via the price and quantity of emission allowances, regulates
and motivates the diversification of the electricity production portfolio through
cost-effectiveness, which in turn would facilitate technological development.
The Minister of the Environment delegated out, through Regulation No. 44, the
application process for free allowances and on the procedure for certification of
emissions to an independent accredited verifier during 2011–2012 and 2013–
2020, which so far had been carried out by a solely competent authority – the
Ministry of the Environment, is an indication of the Government’s efforts to
understand the possibilities for regulating the EU greenhouse gas emissions
trading. It is relevant to mention that, in March–August 2011, the author of this
Doctoral Thesis has himself participated in the free CO2 emission allowance
certification process of several enterprises, carried out in accordance with the
requirements established by EU Regulation 2009/29/EC. Practical experience
acquired in the course of certification confirms once again the hypothesis that a
well-functioning regulation motivates enterprises’ activities. Carrying out of the
certification process gives enterprises a chance to analyse their day-to-day
business in detail. On the basis of relevant results, enterprises can make
decisions for optimisation of their business (and enhancement of
competitiveness) in new conditions as well as to find the best ways to protect the
surrounding environment (Porter 1995, Thompson 2004, Neary 2006).
The following articles have been published in the course of research:
Kleesmaa, Jüri. Impact of CO2 trade on electricity producers depending on
the use of different energy sources in Estonia. In: Estonian Economic Policy
Debate XVIII: XVIII Economics Policy Conference, Värska, 1.–3.07.2010.
Berlin*Tallinn: Berliner Wissenchafts-Verlag, Mattimar, 121−139, 2010.
Latõšov, E., Kleesmaa, J., Siirde, A. The impact of pollution charges, ash
handling and carbon dioxide to cost competitiveness of fuel sources for energy
production in Estonia. Scientific proceedings of Riga Technical University.
Environmental and Climate Technologies, 4(13), 58–63, 2010.
Kleesmaa, J., Pädam, S., Ehrlich, Ü. Subsidising renewable electricity in
Estonia. In: Energy and Sustainability III: Energy and sustainability 2011,
Alicante, Spain, 2011. (Editorial Board) Mammoli, A. A., Brebbia, C. A.,
Villacampa Esteve, Y. WIT Press, 2011, (Ecology and the Environment; 143),
229–241.
24
The Minister of the Environment regulation no 94 “Välisõhku eralduva
süsinikdioksiidi heitkoguse määramismeetod” (method for determination of carbon
dioxide emission discharged into ambient air) of 16.07.2004.
11
Kleesmaa, J., Latõšov, E., Karolin, R. Primary method for reduction of SO2
and its impact for CO2 in pulverized oil shale fired boilers at Narva Power Plant.
Oil Shale 2011, vol 28-2, p 321–336.
Kleesmaa, J., Viiding, M., Latõšov, E. Implication for competitiveness of
Estonian energy-intensive industry after establishment of CO2 pricing from year
2013 onwards. Baltic Journal of Economics, autumn 2011. [Forthcoming]
The main research tasks of the Doctoral Thesis are as follows.
1. Assuming that the best scenario of the Development Plan of the Estonian
Electricity Sector will be implemented, give a quantitative assessment of the
impact on CO2 emissions by taking into account actual operation hours, and
compare the result with the objective set out in the European Union Emission
Trading System (EU-ETS).
2. Assess the impact of additional costs arising from environmental charges,
ash handling fees and the price of CO2 quota on the cost-competitiveness of oil
shale, wood, peat and natural gas in the Estonian fuel market in 2015.
3. On the basis of the economic activities of two power plants (heat and
power cogeneration plants), assess the effect of Feed-in-Tariffs (FIT), and
explain whether the current tariff is justified from the perspectives of
effectiveness, economic efficiency and how it influences consumer prices.
4. Analyse the possibilities of using the primary method BLW
(Brennschiefer–Luft–Wasser) for the purpose of achieving the permitted SO2
emission level established in the EU environmental regulations. Although the
primary method potentially achieves the desired reduction of SO2 emissions,
other emissions (due to fuel consumption increase) might increase. The main
contribution of the author’s research is the development of an algorithm that
calculates the per ton cost of the SO2 air emissions in different modes of the
primary method, taking into consideration investment costs, the increased costs
of other emissions and increased fuel consumption costs.
5. Analyse on the basis of the CO2 emission allowance prices (15, 25 and 50
euros per ton, respectively) the impact on the competitiveness of 21 companies
that participate in the EU Emission Trading System, provided that all carbon
dioxide emission allowances were bought at auction contrary to the free
allowances distributed during 2008–2012.
The object of the Doctoral Thesis research is Estonian electricity
production and the effect of legislative acts on the formation of its structure until
2020. In addition, other energy-intensive enterprises not related to electricity
production are observed in a new environment created due to the application of
legislative acts.
In the methods parts of the Doctoral Thesis, the knowledge acquired in the
course of various research works has been used. Being continuously involved in
the field of energy, which is presently so closely connected with economic
issues, enables to directly perceive sensitive points and also the impacts of
change and the indifference that enterprises come across in their usual activities.
12
Each research paper is based on calculation models developed by the authors
for the specific purpose of the paper. The mentioned models enable the analysis
of basic data by changing different input values.
The cost-competitiveness of fuels producers has been assessed depending on
the implications of environmental charges and CO2 trade. Taking economic
indicators and the financial result on enterprise level, into consideration the
impact of FIT is assessed from the enterprise’s as well as social-economic
perspectives.
Basic data used in the Doctoral Thesis include the European Union
directives, national development plans, annual reports of enterprises, legal acts
of Estonia, results of pulverised oil shale combustion tests, results of various
research works, articles published in scientific journals and other sources of
literature.
The contribution of this Doctoral Thesis in theoretical and practical terms
lies in the following.
1. The cost-competitiveness of fuels is handled from the perspective of
supplementary costs arising from various regulations that are added to fixed fuel
prices. Supplementary cost involves costs related to ash handling.
2. According to the author’s knowledge, no assessments have so far been
carried out with respect to FITs granted to cogeneration plants on enterprise
level – at least no relevant public information is available. The implications of
FITs have been studied on the basis of power plants’ annual reports by analysing
financial-economic indicators.
3. Modelling of the tests carried out in the pulverised oil shale-fired boilers
with the aim of introducing the primary method is unique at the global level,
since no such oil shale-related models have been previously compiled. Another
aspect is the use of the test results for calculating emission reduction costs.
Overview of the approval of research results
1. Results of the research about the impacts of CO2 trade on electricity
producers in Estonia were presented by the author at the Scientific− Conference
on Economic Policy at Värska in 2010.
2. Conclusions drawn from the results of the research paper on the impact of
pollution charges, ash handling and the prices of CO2 emission allowances on
the costs of different fuels were presented by correspondent author Eduard
Latõšov at the Riga Technical University conference in 2010.
3. The results of the research paper on the implications of FITs on Estonian
electricity production and the case study of cogeneration plants were presented
by the author at the scientific conference “Energy and Sustainability 2011” in
Alicante, Spain, April 2011, on the recommendation of the team of authors
involved.
4. The research paper about implications of the tradable CO2 emission
allowances on Estonian energy−intensive enterprises was presented by one of
the authors of the paper – Marko Viiding (Doctoral candidate at the University
of Tartu) – at the Scientific Conference on Economic Policy in Värska
conference in 2011.
13
Abbreviations
AVC – Average Variable Cost
B – fuel consumption
BLW – Brennschiefer-Luft-Wasser (fuel-air-water)
B-LW – optimal capacity – air-water
bLW – minimum capacity – air-water
C – carbon content
Ca(OH)2 − slaked lime
CaCO3 − limestone
Ca/S – calcium and sulphur ratio
CEO − Chief Executive Officer
CHP − Cogeneration Heat and Power
CO2 – carbon dioxide
COM − Commission of the European Communities
CaO − calcium oxide
Cvar – variable costs magnitude
Cconst – investment cost
EC – European Commission
EU − European Union
EU-ETS − the European Union Emission Trading System
EUR – euro
FIT – Feed in Tariff
G – quantity
GHG − Green House Gas
GWh, MWh, kWh – energy content
H2O – water chemical conglomerate
IRR − Internal Rate of Return
Kc – part of oxidize carbon
K2O − potassium oxide
LIFAC – flue gas cleaning method
LRMC − Long Run Marginal Cost
LW – Luf-Wasser (air-water)
Mc – carbon emission value
MgO − magnesium oxide
MW – capacity
NAP − National Allocation Plan
Nm3 – normal cubic meter
NOx – nitrogen oxide
OK – equity share
O2 – oxygen
PM – solid particuls
PCO2 − cost of CO2 emission
Q – fuel calorific value
14
ROx − fuel fine crushing
S − sulphur
SO2 – sulphur dioxide
SRMC − Short Run Marginal Cost
VC − Variable Cost
VK – loan capital share
VKG – Viru Keemia Grupp
WACC – Weighted Average Cost of Capital
k – equity cost
mg – milligram
q – specific emission
β − emissions relative reduction
η − absorption factor
η − energy unit efficiency
Acknowledgements
I would cordially like to thank all people and organisations that have contributed
to the carrying out of my research work.
I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to my supervisors, Professor
Üllas Ehrlich and Professor Maksim Saat, whose thorough and competent help
supported me especially at strenuous moments. I am grateful to Professor Kaie
Kerem, Head of Department of Economics, and to Professor Karsten Staehr,
leaders of doctoral studies, and all participants in doctoral studies for having
created an academic atmosphere on study days and for in-depth presentations
and discussions rich in subject matter. My special thanks go to Master of
Economics Sirje Pädam.
I am thankful to all personnel of ÅF-Estivo AS and in particular to CEO Mr
Jüri-Andrus Alasi who supported my research work in every way. I would like
to express words of gratitude to my good and competent colleagues PhD Eduard
Latõšov and Senior Consultant Robert Karolin with whom we wrote and
published several scientific articles in various publications.
I would like to thank my family – my wife Tiina Kleesmaa and my son Alo
Kleesmaa. I appreciate their profound understanding and support that helped me
to reach the goal set.
15
1. EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS ON
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN ESTONIA UNTIL
2020
Business executives (including electricity producers) traditionally think that
environmental regulations such as permitted maximum levels of air emissions,
pollution charges and greenhouse gas trading allowances, affect the
competitiveness of companies, restrict business activity and are inhibiting and
non-productive from the perspective of business operations. The permitted
maximum levels imposed on air emissions impacts the use of technologies.
Pollution charges and emission trading allowances make the parties involved
consider air emissions and these measures also have an effect on by-products
that were earlier untouched by regulation.
On the basis of different case studies, this thesis analyses the implications of
EU directives, greenhouse gas trading, maximum permitted levels of air
emissions as well as the environmental charges arising from Estonian legislation
and the feed-in-tariff (FIT) specified in the Electricity Market Act. In addition,
the overall aim of the thesis is to analyse the impacts that environmental
regulations have on electricity production. This is done from the perspective of
Estonian electricity producers’ business activities, as well as from the point of
view of the impact of regulations on a wider societal perspective.
The first research paper “Impact of CO2 trade on electricity producers
depending on the use of different energy sources in Estonia” analyses the
structural impact of the Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector
until 2018 in light of EU greenhouse gas allowance trade. The best future
scenario proposed in the mentioned Development Plan serves as background
information for the study that focuses on finding the implicators of electricity
production technologies pursuant to the emission trading directive and its
consequences to the fuel market. The Development Plan of the Estonian
Electricity Sector is given a quantitative assessment as a result of the research.
The second research paper analyses the usage of different fuels in electricity
production by taking into account the requirements of the CO2 emission trading
directive as well as the impact of the environmental costs of fuels from other
legislation. Thereby the impact of environmental charges until 2015 in the case
of fixed prices of different fuels, CO2 allowance trading, and supplementary
costs related to ash handling have been taken into account as relevant
determinants.
In the third research paper dealing with the impact of FITs on renewable
electricity production, two 25 MWel cogeneration plants that started operation in
2009 serve as case studies. In the case studies assessment of the cogeneration
plants’ investment decisions and profitability are based on their annual reports
(Annual Reports 2010). In order to assess profitability without FITs, the rules of
the Estonian Competition Authority were applied and the revenue per MWh
(megawatt-hour) without FIT was calculated. Then, the results were compared
with the marginal cost and the cost price of electricity. Since a gradual transition
16
from oil shale-based electricity to electricity based on renewable resources has a
positive effect on the environment we calculated the external costs depending on
whether electricity is being produced from oil shale, wood chips or peat.
In order to meet the SO2 specific emission limit value (400 mg/Nm3) set as a
target for 2016 by the European Union, in the fourth research paper is analysed
that it is advisable to apply flue gas circulation, finer crushing of oil shale dust
and water injection first to one of the pulverized oil shale-fired boilers for the
purpose of studying the impacts of these factors on the SO2 emission.
The last research paper studies the competitiveness of the 47 enterprises that
participate in the EU-ETS, i.e. EU’s CO2 emissions trading system after 2013
assuming that all CO2 allowances have to be bought at auction. The research
paper includes both electricity producers and other energy intensive companies
that switched into the given trade system. The research paper centred on the
impact that an increasing variable costs has on the competitiveness of the studied
energy intense companies (including electricity producers) depending on their
CO2 emission intensity. The research also observed how the energy intense
companies manage to shift additional costs to the fixed sales price; as well as the
measures taken to reduce the CO2 emission in their production.
An objective arising from the best scenario proposed by the government in the
Estonian Electricity Sector Development Plan until 2018 involves diversification
of electricity production to be achieved due to the introduction of different
technologies. The government assessed the scenarios from three aspects –
economy, security and environment. The aim the of research paper was to assess
the best possible scenario of the electricity sector from the perspective of CO2,
(i.e. how much the quantity of CO2 will decrease) in the case that the best future
scenario of the Development Plan is implemented and in which way it is in line
with the target set for greenhouse gas emission trading.
17
The first introductory trading period under Directive 2003/87/EC establishing
a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community
lasted from 2005 to 2007 when the main CO2 emission allowance trading took
place only between the EU Member States. The second period started on
01.01.2008 and lasts until 31.12.2012. The third emission allowance trading
period will cover the period 2013–2020 and is tied to the EU Climate and
Energy Package (20%+20%+20) which was adopted in 2008. The aim of the
package is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% below the 1990
level by the year 2020. At the same time, by 2020 the number of emission
allowances will be reduced by 21% compared to the cap of 2005, with an annual
reduction of 1.74%. A target was also set for the energy sector – all emission
allowances shall be bought on the market.
For the trading period which started in 2008, the European Commission (EC)
directives took extremely radical cut-down decisions with respect to the total
sum of allowances to be allocated to Member States (the so-called national
Allocation Plan – NAP) in order to stabilise the situation prevalent during the
previous trading period. The purpose of the CO2 market is to allow demand and
supply set the price and value of one ton of CO2.
For the 2008–2012 trading period, Estonia made an allocation proposal of
24.4 million tons of CO2 quotas for free per year (122 million t / 5 y.) to the EC.
The EC reduced the proposed quota amount to 12.7 million tons (63.5 million t /
5 y.), i.e. ca. by 52%. In Estonia, 47 installations, including 39 in the energy
production sector, 6 in the mineral industry and 2 in the paper and pulp industry,
participate in allowances trading. Greenhouse gas permits are issued by the
Minister of the Environment under Regulation No. 257 which provides for the
permitted quantity of emissions discharged by stationary sources of pollution for
the period from 1 January 2008 until 31 December 2012. Every year 11,678,257
tons are distributed to installations and the annual reserve comprises 1,038,801
tons meant for new installations entering the trading system.
Estonia filed an action to the European Court of Justice against the European
Commission claiming that the European Commission made serious errors and
exceeded its authority in making the relevant decision. The European Court
agreed to Estonia’s opinions and noted that the Commission had no right to
replace Estonia’s data by its own ones during the assessment of the National
Allocation Plan. In addition, the Commission’s data had not taken Estonian
energy policy sufficiently into account and were not based on accurate GDP
growth forecasts. Besides, the European Court confirmed that the principle of
good administration had been violated25.
The court judgement entailed new decisions to be taken on Estonian emission
quotas by the EC. In 2009, the EC provided justifications for its decision
previously taken on the quantity of emission quotas and refused to amend it.
Negotiations between the EC and Estonia continue at present. In July 2011,
25
Eurpean Commission Decision of 11.12.2009 concerning the national allocation
plan for the allocation of greenhouse gas emission allowances notified by Estonia in
accordance with Directive 2003/87/EC of the European, Parliament and of the Council.
18
Estonia made a new proposal to the EC asking for the rate of 13.3 million tons of
emission allowances26.
Assuming that the CO2 allowances basic value for Estonia will be 12.7
million tons. The EU energy policy measure foresees reduction of greenhouse
gas emission allowances by 1.74% per year compared to the reference year
2005. Proceeding from these values at the referred minimal CO2 reduction rate,
the respective CO2 amount is estimated to be no more than 11.2 million tons in
2020. To compare goals of EU-ETS to our best scenarios CO2 quantity of this
scenario will be calculated and benchmarked to EU-ETS minimum CO2
reduction requirements.
The Minister of the Environment Regulations No. 94 of 16.07.2004 and No.
99 of 02.08.2004 serve as the bases for calculations of the CO2 emission released
into the ambient air during combustion of different fuels (in the 1st, 2nd and 5th
articles). The mentioned regulations provide for a method of determining the
amount of CO2 released into the ambient air. The author has compiled an Excel
program-based calculation model for determining the discharged CO2 amount in
the case of the best future scenario of electricity production. The input of the
calculation program is comprised of CO2 emission factors, capacity of the power
plant, operational efficiency and duration of operation period, whereas, the
relevant calculations were made by using the determination method established
by the referred Regulation of the Minister of the Environment. Electricity
production in 2020 and the CO2 emission released in the course of electricity
production are the results gained due to the calculation process.
1.1.2. The cost-competitiveness of oil shale, wood, peat and natural gas will
face a change in 2015 due to increases in environmental charges, ash
handling fees and the CO2 emission allowance price
In Estonia, environmental charges have been applied since 1991. In the course of
20 years, these charges have been revised and amended and the respective rates
have been increased step by step. The rates of the environmental charges that
took effect in 1991 were low, because the economic level and the solvency of
the population were also low. In terms of environmental protection, their impact
was symbolic, in order to ‘drawing attention’ nature. As a result of the gradual
increase in the charge rates over a long period of time with a larger ‘leap’ made
in 2006, the charge rates have by now grown to the level that to some extent
already encourages environmental protection activities. (Kraav 2008).
Pollution charges serve as an economic instrument functioning by ‘the
polluter pays’ principle. The goal is to let an undertaking choose whether to
invest in the reduction of pollution and pay less pollution charge in the future or
to continue its production process and polluting and pay compensation to the
state for the environmental pollution caused.
26
http://majandus.delfi.ee/news/uudised/eesti-vahendab-uues-kavas-soovitavat-co2-
kvooti-miljoni-tonni-vorra.d?id=50691217 (in Estonian). Retrived 22.09.2011.
19
The aim of the research paper is to assess the impact of monetary measures
on the cost competitiveness of oil shale, peat, wood and natural gas. Cost
competitiveness of a fuel has been determined on the basis of the change in fuel-
related environmental costs for the period 2010–2015. While the pre-charge
prices of various fuels were fixed, the costs were added of ash handling fees,
environmental charges and the price of CO2 emission allowances per one
megawatt-hour of energy content of respective fuel.
Quantities of emissions released into the environment in the course of fuel
combustion and ash formation have been calculated according to the
Environmental Charges Act of 15 June 2010.
1.1.3. FITs are effective for introducing renewable energy, but the costs may
not be justified
FITs entail a guaranteed price for those undertakings that produce electricity
from renewable sources whereas the network operator is obliged to purchase
their production (del Rio & Gual 2007). There are two possibilities for covering
the costs of FITs: this is done on account of consumer’s electricity bill or
through the public sector budget. An important reason, why the electricity
produced form renewable sources is subsidised is that the production costs are
bigger than in case of electricity from other sources (del Rio & Gual 2007).
Relying on German and Danish experience, Sijm (Sijm 2002) has assessed
the sustainability of FITs and he concludes that FITs are effective for
encouraging production of electricity from renewable sources, but costly,
inefficient and distorts the market.
Spain has achieved notable results in the development of electricity
production from renewable sources. Del Rio and Gual (2007) find evidence
similar to Sijm in their assessment. The Spanish system has proved effective in
stimulating wind energy, but has not showed the same success in the case of
other energy sources. Consumer prices rose during the time period 1999–2003
from 0.14 euro cents to 0.26 euro cents per kWh. However, the costs of FITs are
large in comparison with the avoided external costs.
The goal of the research paper about subsidizing renewable electricity in
Estonia is to assess the application of FITs to heat and power cogeneration plants
and, to explore whether the current tariff is effective, justified from the
perspective of efficiency and what effect it has on the consumer price. Another
goal of the research paper is to determine the value of avoiding external costs.
So far, we have no information about previous assessments of the application of
FITs to cogeneration plants. Thus, the relevant article can be regarded as the first
one in this field.
The 2008 and 2009 annual reports submitted by two power plants serve as a
basis for assessing the efficiency of FIT. The financial indicators of these
enterprises are used as benchmarks and as inputs to the analysis. Since
information of the annual reports do not directly reveal the power plant
20
dependence on FIT, the following formula was compiled by the authors. The
formula reflects the dependence of operating profit on the size of FIT:
where
is operating profit from electricity sales expressed in euros, −
operating profit without FIT in euros, − produced electric energy in
megawatt-hours and, FITi denotes the size of support given in case of different
fuels in euros per megawatt-hour; i=1,2 (1=wood and 2=peat).
The operation of power plants without FITs was analysed by using the
regulator method established by the Estonian Competition Authority – a price
formula of WACC i.e. the Weighted Average Capital Cost:
where
ke – cost of equity capital (%), kd – cost of borrowed capital or external
liabilities (%), OK – proportion of equity capital determined by the regulator
(%), and VK – proportion of borrowed capital determined by the regulator (%).
According to the support rates provided for in the Electricity Market Act, the
size of FIT if electricity is generated from a renewable energy source (including
wood in a cogeneration regime) and from peat in an efficient cogeneration
regime27 is 54 euros per megawatt-hour in the case of wood fuel and 32 euros per
megawatt-hour in the case of peat.
1.1.4. The use of primary energy method has great advantages in SO2
capturing costs in pulverised oil shale-fired boilers
Reduction of the SO2 emissions released in the pulverised oil shale combustion
process is one of the most important and complicated environmental issues faced
by Narva Power Plants. The EU accession agreement sets out an obligation to
restrict the SO2 emissions to 25,000 tons per year from 2012 onwards source.
The directive on industrial emissions establishes an obligation to substantially
reduce the discharge of specific emissions SO2, NOx and fly ash starting from
2016. These requirements will significantly limit electricity production capacity
in Estonia. In order to ensure compliance with the EU requirements, several flue
gas cleaning methods (dry, semi-dry, wet, plasma and photochemical methods)
targeted at reducing the SO2 emissions have been studied and tested (Ots 2006).
However, the experience gained from the referred tests shows that the listed
methods do not fully take the specific mineral properties of oil shale into
27
„Elektrienergia tootmine elektri- ja soojusenergia koostootmise režiimil, lähtuvalt
soojusenergia nõudlusest ja tagades energiasäästu vastavalt tõhusa koostootmise nõuetele“
(production of electric energy in the heat and power cogeneration mode depending on the demand
for heat energy and by ensuring the saving of energy in compliance with the requirements set for
efficient cogeneration); State Gazette I 2007, 23, 120 – in force since 01.05.2007.
21
account. Furthermore, the possibility of their application and assurance of their
efficiency is questionable. To increase the SO2 capture in pulverised oil shale-
fired boilers by primary methods comprises a large reserve in the reduction of
SO2 emission. Its own nature offers a solution to this problem as oil shale has
been supplied with a neutralizing mineral ballast that contains up to ten times
more SO2-binding components (CaO, MgO, K2O, etc.) than stoichiometrically
needed. Nevertheless, by the currently applied pulverised oil shale combustion
methods, the capture of SO2 varies to a large extent in a pulverised oil shale-fired
boiler by 70–80%. The specific emission of SO2 in leaving flue gases is 1,800–
2,700 mg/Nm3 (Aunela 1995). This indicates that the specific emission of SO2 in
flue gases changes to a large extent during the boiler operation period, because
the regime and technological parameters change, too. This suggests that
application of primary methods for capturing SO2 in pulverised oil shale-fired
boilers involves large reserves and this potential is not fully made use of as of
yet. The main difficulty in taking into use of the mentioned reserves while
capturing SO2 is that there is lack of experience in the combustion of a fuel of
similar structure and in the capture of SO2 by primary methods.
The application of primary methods in pulverised oil shale combustion
reduces the emissions of NOx and SO2. The decrease in SO2 emissions is proved
by the results of earlier tests carried out on the Eesti Power Plant boiler walls by
the Power Plant staff source. The tests were based on water injection tests after a
finer crushing of oil shale dust and heating of steam in the superheater. The
mentioned tests had earlier been carried out in a boiler of the Balti Power Plant
and resulted in an enlarged fly ash chemisorption surface.
Water injection after the superheater activates fly ash (i.e. it enlarges the fly
ash chemisorption surface). The water injection technology is a simplified high-
temperature technology developed on the basis of the LIFAC gas cleaning
method. For a long time, the LIFAC gas cleaning method has been successfully
and widely applied to coal-firing power plants for the reduction of SO2 emissions
(Hämälä 1986 and Ryyppö 2000).
Circulation of flue gases lowers the combustion flame temperature, which in
turn reduces a high-temperature agglomeration process. Finer-fraction crushing
of oil shale reduces mechanical separation and enlarges the fly ash
chemisorption surface. Both primary technologies have for a long time been
successfully and widely applied to coal-firing power plants for the reduction of
NOx emission (Kotler 1987, Leikert 1986, Jaborski 1995, Weber 1986,
Macphail 1999 and Sidorkin 1991).
The advantage of primary technologies lies in considerably smaller
investments and operational costs compared to those of gas cleaning equipment
such as SO2 scrubbers and catalytic NOx reactors (Nolan 1995, overview of the
methods 1993, Beljaikin 2000, Šmigol 2006 and Šmigol 2007).
The cost calculations of the fourth research paper are based on the
technological and economic-analytical algorithm of the primary method BLW
(Brennschiefer–Luft–Wasser) technology, which was compiled by the team of
authors (Appendix B).
22
1.1.5. Additional costs of the CO2 emission allowances influence the variable
costs and might thereby affect the competitiveness of enterprises
participating in the trade with emission allowances
23
collected from annual reports, if available, or from public sources and in some
cases via personal contacts between the corresponding author and the companies
concerned.
Changes in variable costs that depend on the CO2 emission allowance price
can be expressed through the formula compiled by the authors:
2 , ,
∆ , , , 100, %
, , ,
where
, , − is variable cost in euros, − cost of CO2 emission in euros,
2 − the emission factor in ton per megawatt-hours, , , − corresponds to
the amount of fuel used in tons, − calorific value in megawatt-hours per ton.
Every value of variable costs of observed enterprises ( , , ) is unique: i
stands for an individual enterprise (i 1 … 22 ; n marks the accounting year of
variable cost (n 1,2 , so that n=1 stands for the accounting year 2008, and
n=2 for the accounting year 2009; e represents the price of CO2 emission where
e=1 means 0 euros per ton, e=2 stands for 15, e=3 stands for 25 and e=4
represents 50 euros per ton; j represents the type of fuel used j 1 … 5 , where
j=1 stands for oil shale, j=2 is generator gas, j=3 is shale oil, j=4 is natural gas
and j=5 represents peat.
2. RESULTS
2.1. Realisation of the best future scenario suggested by the
Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector until 2018 will
cause a sharp change in the amount of CO2 emission
A power plant’s output depends on the climate conditions and the market
situation in a certain year. The electricity market regulation must ensure
diversity of the production structure in Estonia, at the same time there is a need
to ensure sufficient production capacity. Without strict environmental
regulations capacity is sufficient. Unless it is possible to buy electricity at a
cheaper price elsewhere, regulations require investment in new capacity.
However, a justified question also arises in the case where we buy cheaper
electricity – for example from Russia – whether the conformity certificate is
proper and valid. In the free market, where cheaper electricity is imported from
third countries, and these countries are not subject to carbon-free electricity
production requirements, home market electricity producers find themselves in a
situation of unequal competition.
Pursuant to the forecast made for 2020 (in the Development Plan, presented
until 2018) the situation is estimated to change drastically (Figure 1): the share
of oil shale-based electricity will decrease to about 40%, and the share of
renewable energy will increase to nearly 31% compare to 2010.
24
Narva Power
Wind Parks Plants woodchips Narva Power Plant
12% 4% oil shale
40%
Peak load reserve
plants
7%
Wind Parks
rebalancing plants Co-generation
22% plants renewable
fuel
15%
28
Author’s calculation.
25
will amount to 110 million euros (in case of the quota price 50 euros, the
respective sum will already be 275 million euros).
An excessive tempo of CO2 reduction implies huge investments over a short
time period, pressure on the electricity price, additional burden to consumers,
and a question whether the chosen best scenario is the most balanced one.
2.2. The cost-competitiveness of oil shale, wood, peat and natural gas
will face a significant change in 2015 due to environmental charges,
ash handling fees and prices of CO2 emission allowances
The EU directive on greenhouse gas trading, assessed from the point of view of
the best future scenario described in the Development Plan of the Estonian
Electricity Sector sets new requirements for the use of fuels – fuels that cause
more pollution to the environment (oil shale, peat) will be pushed out of the
fuels market and environmentally friendlier fuels (renewable energy sources
such as biofuels, wind and solar energy and natural gas) will replace them.
Increasing environmental taxes and charges will give energy producers price
signals to move toward the intended change. The increase brought about by ash
handling fees will amount to approximately 30% in 2015 compared to the ash-
handling fees to the reference year 2010 (no ash is formed in the use of natural
gas).
Calculation results reveal that the expected increase in environmental costs
will remarkably change the cost-competitiveness between fuels.
Oil shale has the highest rate of pollution charge per one MWhfuel of energy
content of the fuel – about 1.75 euros per megawatt-hour. High emission factors
– in particular in the case of sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide and solid particles –
are estimated to raise the pollution charge rate by twofold i.e. to approximately
3.75 euros per megawatt-hour by 2015. Oil shale-related environmental costs
were 10.6 euro in 2010, which was the highest of the fuels types. Similarly, in
2015 the absolute increase in costs per one megawatt-hour of energy content of
the oil shale is estimated to be the largest: depending on the CO2 quota pricing
plan, it will be 13.1–18.5 Euros per megawatt-hour (87–122% increase related to
2010 costs). This trend may threaten the competitiveness of oil shale-based
energy production in comparison with the energy producers who use other fossil
fuels or renewable fuels.
At present, peat is considered a good alternative to wood chips. The price of
wood chips is 12.8 euros per megawatt-hour. The price of peat is lower: 11.7
euros and these balance environmental charges (including ash handling costs and
pollution charges) which in the case of peat are higher than in the case of wood
chips.
The fuel-related costs of using peat may increase by 1.5–2 times per one
megawatt-hour of energy content by 2015: starting from 13.3 and increasing up
to 21.2–26.8 euros per megawatt-hour. According to the research results, the
increase in the fuel-related costs of wood chips is expected to be very small. But
26
a growing demand for wood chips may lead to a rapid price increase in the
market of wood fuels.
As for natural gas, its pollution charge rate per one megawatt-hour of energy
content is low. In 2010, it was 0.42, and in 2015 it is expected to be 0.43. No ash
is discharged in the case of natural gas, thus no such costs should be considered.
The fuel price per megawatt hour of natural gas is high and therefore the fuel-
related costs of these companies that are use natural gas are large as well. Since
the emission factor of carbon dioxide is small and other environmental costs are
also relatively small, it is possible to reduce the fuel-related growth rate in costs;
whereas in the case of other fossil fuels, the emission factor and other
environmental impacts are larger.
In the case of wood chips, the environmental costs were and will be the
lowest in 2010 and 2015 respectively, compared to other observed fuels,
amounting to 0.054–0.11 euros per megawatt-hour as there is no carbon dioxide
emission to be taken into account. The lowest ash handling costs in comparison
with other solid fuels: 0.19–0.27 euros per megawatt-hour – keep environmental
costs and other fuel-related total costs low. In 2010, these costs were 13 euros
per megawatt-hour and by 2015 they are expected to be 13.2 euros per
megawatt-hour. The above-listed factors will considerably improve the
competitiveness of the wood chips producing industry and enable to expand
wood chips-based energy production.
The analysis shows that, without the application of environmental
regulations, the priority list of fuels by price is as follows: oil shale, wood, peat
and natural gas. Adding of environmental charges and the CO2 emission
allowance price to the fuel price changes the priority list as follows: wood, peat,
oil shale and natural gas. Due to regulations, the use of renewable fuels will be
more preferred than the use of fossil fuels.
The research paper, which focuses on the FIT paid for producing renewable
electricity, shows that Estonia’s FIT system has effectively contributed to the
construction of cogeneration capacity. In 2007, the share of electricity produced
from renewable sources comprised 1.75% of the total electric energy
consumption. But in 2010, it already comprised 9.7% (instead of the planned
5.1%). The future goal, based on the Development Plan of the Estonian
Electricity Sector until 2018, is to achieve a 15% share by 2015. Administration
costs have been small and the saved external costs have exceeded the size of
support: in the case of oil shale the costs arising from externalities amount to
69.2 euros per megawatt-hour, in the case of wood fuel and peat: 9.7 and 25.8
euros per megawatt-hour, respectively.
27
However, the cost of Estonian FITs have increased at a fast pace from 0.1
euro cents per kilowatt-hour to 0.8 euro cents per kilowatt-hour from 2007 to
2010, and consumers have collectively covered these costs through their
electricity bill. At the same time, large cogeneration plants are the ones who earn
profit. Costs related to the introduction of FIT increased from 6 million euros in
2007 to 55 million euros in 2011.29. In 2010, the support-related cost accounted
for about 10% of the consumer’s payments for electricity and, the Estonian
Competition Authority, who is the regulator of electricity price in the closed
market, raised the issue of reducing the tariff. In 2011 the FIT remained
unchanged, although the network operator Elering OÜ reduced its compensation
to producers to 0.61 euro cents per kilowatt-hour30 on account of the sum
collected in the previous period.
Besides the distributional issues, there are also other reasons for assessing the
FIT. A case study was carried out on two cogeneration plants and by comparing
their average variable cost of electricity production to the cost price show that
the current support system is not efficient (Appendix A). The research results
also indicate that resources are being used for supporting production that is also
profitable without FITs (IRR 19%)31. Both this and the fact that the aims set for
2010 have been exceeded confirm that the current system of FITs is not cost-
effective.
Although the current FITs are attractive from an administration point of view,
it can be stated on the basis of large differences in cost prices depending on the
size of the plant that FITs need to be distinguished by taking into account the
size of the plant. Figure 2 (Latõšov et al. 2011) shows that the cost price of
cogeneration plants with the capacity of less than 10 MWhel is considerably
higher than that of large plants, and – the smaller the plant, the faster the
increase is in cost price. Subtracting FIT from the cost price makes the picture
even more interesting: the FIT covers the production cost price of plants with the
capacity of 25 MWhel, and if we leave the FIT out, the cost price of the plant
becomes similar to the cost price of a support-receiving 4 MWhel plant. These
findings further confirm the results of this research and refer to the fact that large
plants are over-compensated by the current system of FITs, but to small plants
the FIT is not necessarily sufficient.
29
Author’s calculation.
30
http://elering.ee/taastuvenergiatasu/ (in Estonian). Retrieved date 22.09.2011.
31
Author’s calculation.
28
EUR/MWh
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
MWe
0 l
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
The greatest drawback of subsidies, taxes and other price formation measures
is that the extent of their impact is not clear. In Estonia, as in many other
countries, FITs are used for achieving quantitative goals. It is not easy to select a
monetary support matching the goal; therefore the regulation by FIT needs
continuous revision. Such process of revisions will inevitably be accompanied
by uncertainty for companies considering investment. Consequently, as in the
case of FIT-based regulation, a compromise needs to be reached between the
issues arising from revision and inefficient resource use.
2.4. The use of primary energy method has great advantages in SO2
capturing costs in pulverised oil shale-fired boilers
Based on the literature and tests carried out earlier, an algorithm was compiled
(Appendix B) that helped to model. The basic data changing in the algorithm
are: a) Cb – price of oil shale, euros per ton; b) CCO2 – price of CO2 emission,
euros per ton; c) CNOx – investment in the circulation of flue gases, million
euros; d) CROx – investment in a finer crushing of oil shale dust, million euros; e)
CW – investment in water injection, million euros; f) t – the number of operation
hours of the energy unit per year, hours; g) z – the investments pay-back period,
years; h) Cbting – price of standard fuel, euros per ton. The basic data of energy
unit are: a) Nmax – max. capacity of energy unit, megawatts; b) Nmin – min.
capacity of energy unit, megawatts; c) Nopt – optimal capacity of energy unit,
megawatts; d) emax – self-consumption of energy unit at max. load, megawatts;
e) emin – self-consumption of energy unit at min. load, megawatts; f) eopt – self-
consumption of energy unit at optimal load, megawatts.
The algorithm enables to change the operation- and investments-related basic
data and evaluate the effect of these changes on the cost of one ton of SO2
emission reduction in case of different price changes of CO2. Earlier, the
investments considered necessary for introducing primary technologies to the
29
two bodies of one pulverised oil shale-fired boiler at Eesti Power Plant were
assessed as follows:
a) 8 million euros to be invested in a finer crushing of oil shale dust; b) 8
million euros to be invested in the circulation of flue gases; c) 2 million euros to
be invested in water injection. The investment sums proposed above are
recommendations and may vary depending on the situation. The investments
pay-back period, taking into account physical wearing of energy units, is
estimated to be ten years.
The modelling result is presented in Appendix C Table 2 and on Figure 5.
The modelling result shows that the BLW-ROx and bL-ROx modes enable to
achieve the SO2 limit values (400 mg/Nm3) set by the EU in the directive on
industrial emissions.
To meet the SO2 specific emission value established by the European Union
for the year 2016: the flue gas circulation, finer crushing of oil shale dust and
water injection technologies should be applied to one oil shale-firing boiler for
the purpose of studying their impacts on the SO2 emission.
As the summary article presents a broader treatment of the subject, a number
of tests on various modes of the primary method were carried out in order to
verify the results gained in the course of modelling. The water injection
technology was mainly used in the mentioned tests. The test results are presented
in figures 3,4, and in Appendix C, tables 3,4,5.
Figure 3. Changes in the SO2 and CO2 emissions and in the specific fuel consumption
depending on the amount of electric energy produced (Author’s calculation)
In the figure above, different modes are presented on the horizontal axis, the
letters L and W represent air and water respectively and the B and b signify
boiler optimal and minimal load. The numbers mark water injection pressure of
the system. The resulting SO2 and CO2 emissions and specific fuel consumption
on the amount of produced electric energy are presented on the vertical axis, in
30
percentages of emission reduction. The CO2 emission is directly connected to
fuel consumption (i.e. is in proportional dependence).
According to test results, the best SO2 capture results, 47.9% and 42.3%,
were achieved by the bLW6 and BLW6 modes, matching the results projected
during the modelling process. At the same time, the CO2 emission increases.
Basic economics teaches us that there is an opportunity cost, i.e. there is a trade-
off between reduction in SO2 and the input of fuel. For a simple BLW-mode
solution that does not require investments, sorbents, additional treatment,
transportation and storage of emissions, involves an increase in the costs of oil
shale and emissions of CO2.
Figure 4. The cost value in euros for the reduction of one ton of SO2
(Author’s calculation)
The cost in euros for the reduction of 1 ton of SO2 is displayed in Figure 4.
Horizontal lines in the figure describe the cost of using slaked lime Ca(OH)2 and
limestone (CaCO3) in euros for the reduction of 1 ton of SO2 (based on the
literature). Compared to the maximum permitted levels presented by horizontal
lines, only the bLW6-mode exceeds the costs made for the reduction of 1 ton of
SO2 by using sorbents. By applying other modes, the reduction is achieved for
equal or smaller costs.
Figure 4 shows that mode B has the smallest cost, at the same time Figure 3
indicates that the capture factor is about 3 times smaller in mode B than compare
to mode bLW6.
The SO2 specific emission limit value set by the EU is 400 mg/Nm3. The SO2
emission of pulverised oil shale-fired boilers is on average 2,300 mg/Nm3. By
the bLW method, we can achieve an approximately 50% capture of SO2, i.e.
about 1,150 mg/Nm3, which still does not ensure the level required by the
respective EU directive. Proceeding from the result presented in modelling, we
also considered the ROx mode in addition to the bLW mode. The ROx mode
31
requires crushing of oil shale before combustion to make more efficient use of
the lime contained in oil shale.
The capture of SO2 in the boiler is still under development and requires
additional research, construction solutions and tests. So far tests and cost
calculations have showed significant development potential.
The future of the oil shale power industry will depend on how successful we
are in fulfilling the environmentally-related requirements set by the EU. If we
are able to implement them cheaper than is the case of coal-fired power plants
(Öpik 1987), we will ensure the sustainability of the oil shale power industry in
Estonia. However, copying technologies used in coal-firing power plants will
require 1.5 times larger investments32.
32
Eesti Energia AS has decided to invest in the desulphurisation equipment after the
unit boilers at Eesti Power Plant (Narva Elektrijaamad) i.e. to introduce the secondary
method – dealing with consequences and the total value of investments in four units
reaches nearly 100 million euros (Raidla Lejins&Norcous 2010, Eesti Energia 2010).
32
120
Change in variable cost, % 100
80
60
40
20
Figure 6. Impact of different CO2 prices on the average increase in variable costs (%)
in 2008−2009. (Author’s calculation)
The analysis observes the average increase in costs in 2008 and 2009 by
assuming that the included enterprises had to buy their allowances instead of
receiving them for free. It is important to observe the 2008 and 2009 costs
separately against the background of the global economic crisis that started in
2008. A majority of the studied Estonian enterprises managed to end the
financial year 2008 with positive results, but in 2009 their economic indicators
substantially decreased. These firms also had smaller variable costs in 2009,
whereas their fixed costs remained the same or in some cases even increased.
Annual changes in variable costs do not only depend on the change in CO2
emissions. Since the production of enterprises is directly related to variable cost
due to a bigger consumption of raw material, then production should have a
direct effect also on the amount of CO2 emission. In many cases, the CO2
emission amounts remained on the 2008 level in 2009. In several cases, the
modelled changes in variable costs were bigger in 2009; in particular at
enterprises that use oil shale as the primary fuel and which suffered a sharp
increase in variable costs.
Some differences can be explained by the fact that the independent third
party does not currently audit annual CO2 emissions, meaning that the data
submitted by enterprises have to be presumed as true. Estonia has a specific
33
situation in the European Union context, because all other Member States
require auditing of CO2 emission from their enterprises33.
CONCLUSIONS
1. The Estonian government, in the light of the EU energy policy until 2020 and
on the basis of the legal acts passed, has taken action with a view to diversifying
electricity production in Estonia by broadening the use of renewable energy in
33
The Ministry of the Environment has submitted the Ambient Air Protection Act
Amendment Act to the Riigikogu. If the Amendment Act is approved, an independent
third party will start auditing carbon dioxide emissions also in Estonia.
34
order to reduce environmental pollution caused by the combustion of our basic
fuel − oil shale. The Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector,
prepared for the above-mentioned purpose, provides for a change in capacities
that will bring about a decrease in oil shale-based electricity to a 40% level and
an increase in the use of renewable energy to a 31% level compare to 2010. The
best future scenario requires CO2 reductions at a rate of 5.2% per year, while the
EU-ETS foresees a minimum annual rate of decline of 1.74%. The projected
relative annual change in the CO2 emission level is 5% faster compared to the set
norms specified by EU-ETS which is requiring a huge amount of investments
and could have a significant impact on the electricity price, burdening the
consumer’s budget. These circumstances raise the question whether the chosen
best scenario is the most balanced one.
The goals presented in the Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity
Sector need to be reviewed and amended, if necessary. There is a significant
margin between the objectives of the EU-ETS and the best future scenario of the
Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector until 2018.
2. The ranking of environmental costs of fuels will change in 2015 – oil
shale which positioned as the least costly in 2010 will fall to third position due to
an increase in environmental charges, costs related to ash handling and the CO2
trade allowances price; whereas wood fuel and peat will occupy the first two
positions. Wood fuel positioning as the first in the ranking of fuels’
competitiveness in 2015 is attractive for burning in large, up to 300 MWel,
combustion installations, which according to estimations will put pressure on the
availability of wood in the market thereby leading to price increases. The
availability of wood for electricity production purposes requires further analysis.
A decline in the use of oil shale enables to value this mineral resource more
as a raw material, i.e. for producing shale oil and other light-fraction fuels that
are competitive in the global market of liquid fuels.
Peat will be holding the second place in the ranking of fuels, but the use of
peat as a fuel for electricity production is problematic because of its high CO2
emission level (emission factor in electricity production amounts to
1,233 kg/MWh, Kleesmaa 2010) and large ash content (up to 5%, Latõšov
2010).
The last place in the ranking is occupied by natural gas because of the high
fuel price determined by the oil market. But taking into account its cleanness (no
ash is formed in combustion) of use and low level of CO2 emission (specific
emission in electricity production is 574 kg/MWh, Kleesmaa 2010), it is a fuel
that can be considered to cover the electricity production peak loads and ensure
reserve capacities in Estonia.
3. The FIT paid to renewable energy producers is used, in order to meet the
20% target fixed in the EU directive on renewable energy, has fulfilled its
purpose in interim stages – the 5.1% goal of 2010 was outperformed by
achieving a 9.7% result.
In Estonia, granting of FIT does not involve large administration costs,
because supports are similar in the cases of all energy sources.
35
The analysis shows that the way FITs have been implemented may lead to
unproportional profits and cause the share of borrowed capital to increase. At the
same time, in 2007–2010 the cost has increased from 0.1 to 0.8 euro cents per
one kilowatt-hour for consumers. For example, Estonia’s starting position is the
same as that of Spain a decade ago, but in Estonia the price rise has been
considerably faster. In 2011 the cost borne by consumers was adjusted down to
0.61 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, but this was done on account of the already
prepaid sum.
As the FIT to renewable electricity is uniform Estonian supports are neutral
in terms of technology, but there exist other reasons which make supports
questionable from the efficiency perspective. The research reveals that
cogeneration plants with the capacity of 25 MWel would earn profit even without
any support. Moreover, market prices considerably exceed the marginal costs of
electricity generated from biomass in cogeneration plants with the capacity of
25 MWel. The principles followed by Estonian FIT do not facilitate development
of small cogeneration plants. One reason for that is the remarkably larger
production cost per unit in small plants.
In conclusion, revision of the FITs is important for Estonia also considering
the prospective market liberalisation (in 2013 electricity market will be fully
opened and all consumers will buy electricity in the free market).
4. The EU directive on industrial emissions sets stricter limits for SO2
emission into the air − 400 mg/Nm3. On average 2,300 mg/Nm3 of SO2
(sometimes over 3,000 mg/Nm3) is released in the combustion of oil shale.
There are two methods for fulfilling the requirement: the primary method, as in
the case when natural limestone contained in oil shale is already made of use of
while oil shale is being prepared for combustion and also in the combustion
process; and the secondary method is when dealing with consequences – SO2
discharged in the course of oil shale combustion is captured after the boiler.
Considering the unique properties of oil shale, neither of these methods has been
studied on a wide-scale global level. Some short tests have been carried out with
respect to the primary method. At the same time, the secondary method is
entirely grounded on a test facility-based study or on a coal-based test.
To meet the environmental requirement the primary method was applied and
modelled based on the data derived from earlier tests and relevant literature. The
result shows that the primary method – crushing of oil shale before combustion,
water injection into the combustion zone of the boiler and the regulation of
combustion air as well as the selection of load – guarantee the limit value set by
the EU. Empirical results confirm the theoretical discourse: about a 50% capture
of SO2 was achieved by a change in combustion air and load, and water
injection. If the tests are supplemented by a finer crushing of oil shale, we can
presume achievement of the permitted limit value.
The sizes of investments are of great importance, too. The cost of secondary
method as a commercial solution amounts to approximately 100 million euros
per four energy units, making 25 million euros per one energy unit. But, the
investments for implementation of primary method’s regimes on commercial
36
level (tested solutions, available equipment) remain within the limits of 100,000
euros per energy unit. This sum of investment does not cover short period
simulated primary method regimes, such as ROx regime.
In order to fulfil the SO2 specific emission limit value (400 mg/Nm3)
established by the European Union by 2016, and develop a commercial solution
for the BLW technology, the use of finer-crushed oil shale dust should be first
applied to and tested on one boiler in addition to the regulation of load,
regulation of oxygen and water injection. As a result, the combustion flame
temperature becomes lower and finer crushing of oil shale enlarges the fly ash
chemisorption surface, thus the capture of SO2 on a required level is achieved.
Other air emissions (in addition to CO2 and SO2) included in the EU directive
on industrial emissions such as NOx and solid particles have not been observed
in this research. Possibilities for meeting their respective limit values need
further research.
5. In the framework of the EU energy policy, greenhouse gas emissions were
to be reduced to 20% by 2020. The greenhouse gas trading system EU-ETS was
created on the basis of a relevant legal act. A majority of enterprises
participating in the system are energy producers who produce electricity or heat
or are involved in cogeneration of both.
The CO2 emission allowances are issued to enterprises free of charge until
the end of 2012. From 2013 onwards the quantity of allowed emissions will start
decreasing, which puts pressure on the per ton price of CO2 emissions. This, in
turn, will have an impact on companies’ total energy costs and influence their
overall level of competitiveness in open markets.
Calculations on the impact on variable costs of these companies are based on
the price of CO2 per ton being 15, 25 or 50 euros. It emerges that the cost base is
most vulnerable in companies that use only oil shale as their primary fuel.
Companies that use other fuels, including mixed fuels, are less likely to be
impacted.
Alternative investment and sourcing options need to be highlighted for
softening the increase in operation costs when the CO2 emission starts to impact
them. Above all, companies’ management teams need to make relevant
decisions. The state needs to analyse whether corrective actions are required to
protect its companies, yet still allowing for fair competition. Due to size
limitations these two topics have not been covered in the current research, but it
is extremely important to deal with them in future research.
The data presented in this research enables the comparing and measuring of a
cost increase arising from the introduction of CO2 emission trading at various
market rates. The research offers analysis material for management teams of
individual companies as well as policy makers.
6. The EU energy policy approved under the European Union Energy and
Climate Package for 2013–2020 set a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by
20% (only CO2 studied in this paper); a 20% increase in the share of renewable
energy; and a 20% reduction in the primary energy consumption. In conformity
37
with the legal provisions of the EU, Estonia adopted several legal acts on a
national level with a view to achieving the goals set.
Based on the results of five research papers, it can be concluded that, due to
the effect of the adopted environmental regulations, great changes are expected
in Estonian electricity generation. As a result, the two goals set – reduction of
CO2 emission and a 20% increase in the use of renewable energy – will most
probably be achieved by 2020, but potentially the cost will be high.
SUMMARY
The European Union has, in the framework of the energy and environmental
policy, adopted various regulations for making the energy sector “greener”. In
2009, the European Commission as an executive body of the EU adopted
essential regulations for achieving the set goals. The goals were designed to
improve and expand the scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading
within the Community (EU-ETS) in order to motivate the Member States to
make bigger efforts towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With a view to
fulfilling the Community’s requirement of reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
the use of energy produced from renewable sources is being promoted and the
share of primary energy in final consumption is being increased. In the
production of electric energy, great importance is attached to the Directive of the
European Parliament and of the Council on industrial emissions pursuant to
which the integrated prevention and control of air pollution are being
implemented.
In compliance with the environmental regulations adopted by the EU, Estonia
has created a judicial area in the republic with an intention to promote the green
energy sector and energy conservation. Notwithstanding the legal acts of the EU,
the Estonian government has adopted several important development plans, such
as the Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector until 2018 and the
Estonian Renewable Energy Development Plan until 2020. The Estonian
Electricity Market Act also has its role in the organisation of electricity
production in Estonia. In addition, the Electricity Market Act establishes a
procedure for applying for supports and the size of feed-in tariffs (FIT) that the
producers generating electricity from renewable sources can receive.
In the light of EU and Estonian legal acts, Estonian electricity production is
expected to undergo great changes – replacement of oil shale as a fuel of large
environmental pressure with environmentally friendlier energy sources, such as
biomass or gas for the production of basic electricity.
Research results on the effects of various EU regulations on Estonian
electricity production are presented in Table 1.
38
Table 1. Effect of the EU and Estonian regulations on Estonian electricity production
Environ- Industrial
EU-ETS mental FITs emission
charges limit values
Peat − − + n.a.*
Wood + + + n.a.*
*− not applicable
The table above indicates that regulations put the biggest pressure on the
electricity produced from the local fuel oil shale as, due to its chemical-physical
properties, oil shale has a large impact on the environment.
The CO2 quota trade launched by the EU has a large effect on the
diversification of Estonian electricity production portfolio. Such CO2-free
energy sources as wood and wind have a more preferable position.
The most favourable renewable fuel is wood, and the most favourable fossil
fuel is natural gas. Peat with its large CO2 emissions and ash content, slow
natural process in the nature makes utilization complicated, but electricity
production based on peat fuel receives FIT, is local fuel and has sufficient
reserves.
Legal acts on renewable energy have a positive effect on the use of
renewable fuels. Regulation remains positive to technology development
(development of more environmental friendly solutions for existing technologies
and new renewable fuels based technologies).
The directive on industrial emissions creates a complicated situation for the
pulverised oil shale combustion technology-based electricity production. If, by
2016, energy units are not supplied with necessary pollution abatement
equipment, which ensures fulfilment of the requirements arising from the
directive, the relevant units have to be shut down. Such a situation motivates the
management teams of energy enterprises, specialists and researchers to take
action for finding solutions (introduction of primary technology), in order to
guarantee the operation of existing power plants after 2016.
A continuous increase in environmental charges has a favourable impact on
the environment friendliness of Estonian electricity production. At the beginning
of the 1990ies the aim of environmental charges was to draw attention to the
topic, but twenty years later the size of charges influence management teams of
enterprises towards carrying out more in-depth analysis of their production
process in terms of environmental protection (e.g. which fuel to prefer), towards
introducing new technology (reduction of the SO2 emission) and dealing with
the production-related expenses (ensuring of competitiveness).
39
Appendix A. A note on the marginal cost
In the assessment of subsidies to renewable electricity, Kleesmaa and his
coauthors derive the per MWh average revenue from electricity sales. This is
done excluding the feed-in tariff (FIT) for the two combined heat and power
(CHP) plants that are under study (Kleesmaa et al. 2011, p. 235). The
calculations show that excluding FITs, the plant CHP1 earned 40€/MWh and
that the second plant CHP2 earned 36 €/ MWh from electricity sales. In order to
make conclusions about economic efficiency, these revenues, i.e. prices were
compared to marginal costs. In the paper, marginal costs are approximated by
the average variable cost of a plant with same capacity. Depending on the
method of allocating costs between heat and electricity production, the resulting
average variable costs were found to be 4.7 and 6.7€/MWh, respectively.
In Kleesmaa et al. (2011) the comparison of prices with the approximation of
marginal costs shows that there is a significant deviation between prices and
marginal costs, hence production is not efficient from an economic point of
view. The comparison concerns the short run. Weyman-Jones points out that
there is a controversy in energy economics about whether the optimal price
should equal the short run or the long run marginal cost (see Weyman-Jones,
2009 p. 29). The reason why short run marginal cost may not be appropriate is
that when demand fluctuates or is uncertain, short run marginal cost pricing
becomes volatile and cannot guide investment decisions. Therefore, many real
world applications have adopted a rule that prices should equal long run
marginal costs.
The purpose of this note is to calculate the long run marginal cost and to
compare the result to the price in order to judge whether the conclusion about
inefficiency will remain in the long run setting.
Following Weyman-Jones (ibid), the short run marginal cost (SRMC) is
constant and equal to the per unit operating cost up to the level of capacity
installed, then it becomes infinite
:
∞:
In equation above r denotes the per period cost to produce one unit of output,
i.e. the running cost of one unit, which equals the average variable cost derived
by Kleesmaa and his co-authors (2011). The constant c is the cost per period to
hire the plant or alternatively the cost per period to repay with interest the loan
used to buy the plant. In this note we apply the so called Merchant Investor
approach to derive c (ibid, p. 31).
One way to apply the Merchant Investor approach is to calculate the cost of
installing one unit of capacity, i.e. finding the annuity factor of a plant and
dividing by capacity. For this purpose we apply the data gathered by Latõšov et
40
al. (2011, p.145). The investment of a 25 MWel cogeneration plant, with an
average annual production of 125,000MWh electricity is 75M€ and its life time
is 25 years. Applying the same interest rate as Latõšov, which is 4.5 per cent, we
find that the annuity of this plant is about 1.68M€. Dividing the annuity with the
average annual production and assuming that electricity related costs make up 50
per cent of production costs we arrive at 6.73€/MWh (1,682,927/(125,000×0.5)=
6.732). Since this estimate of c has been derived according to similar
assumptions as the higher level of the SRMC, our estimate of LRMC is
13.43€/MWh, which is 6.7+6.73.
As noted above, the prices that were derived for the two case study
cogeneration plants were 40 and 36€/MWh, respectively. In comparison to the
long run marginal cost (LRMC) that was found to be 13.43€/MWh, our
conclusion is that our finding concerning inefficiency is relevant also in the long
run setting.
43
SO2 emission reduction, euros per one ton of SO2; 16) βSO2 – relative decrease in
SO2 emission, percentage; 17) C∑ – the costs value of one ton of SO2 emission
reduction, euros per megawatt-hour.
Režiim CSO2 ηSO2 ηE bB qSO2 qCO2 ΔbB ΔqSO2 ΔqCO2 Cb CCO2 Cvar Cconst CΣ βSO2
mg/nm3 % % g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 %
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 0 2200 75,6 30,1 409 10,49 1287 0,0 0,0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0
2 L 1600 82,2 29,4 418 7,81 1318 9,7 2,7 31 127 229 356 0 356 25,5
3 LW 1000 88,9 28,3 435 5,07 1369 26,0 5,4 82 168 302 470 0 470 51,6
4 B 1400 84,4 29,5 417 6,81 1313 8,3 3,7 26 79 142 221 0 221 35,0
5 BL 1100 87,8 28,4 433 5,56 1364 24,5 4,9 77 174 313 486 0 486 47,0
6 BLW 800 91,1 27,3 451 4,21 1419 41,9 6,3 132 233 420 654 0 654 59,8
7 b 1100 87,8 27,2 452 5,80 1424 43,6 4,7 137 325 586 911 0 911 44,6
8 bL 700 92,2 24,8 496 4,05 1562 87,3 6,4 275 475 855 1329 0 1329 61,3
9 bW 600 93,3 25,1 490 3,43 1544 81,4 7,1 256 404 727 1130 0 1130 67,2
Režiim CSO2 ηSO2 ηE bB qSO2 qCO2 ΔbB ΔqSO2 ΔqCO2 Cb CCO2 Cvar Cconst CΣ βSO2
mg/nm3 % % g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 %
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10 LW/ROX 500 94,4 27,1 454 2,65 1430 45,2 7,8 142 202 363 565 103 668 74,7
11 BLW/ROX 400 95,6 26 473 2,21 1490 64,4 8,3 203 272 490 763 126 889 78,9
12 bLW/ROX 50 99,4 23,5 523 0,31 1649 114,8 10,2 362 394 710 1104 182 1286 97,0
13 NOx 1000 88,9 29,8 413 4,82 1300 4,1 5,7 13 25 46 71 142 213 54,0
14 B/NOx 800 91,1 28,7 429 4,00 1350 19,9 6,5 63 108 194 301 161 462 61,8
15 b/NOx 600 93,3 26,5 464 3,25 1462 55,5 7,2 175 268 483 751 256 1007 68,9
16 ROx/NOx 500 94,4 28,5 432 2,52 1359 22,9 8,0 72 101 181 282 202 484 75,9
17 B/ROx/NOx 400 95,6 27,4 449 2,09 1414 40,3 8,4 127 168 302 470 249 720 79,9
18 b/ROx/NOx 50 99,4 24,8 496 0,29 1562 87,3 10,2 275 300 539 839 363 1202 97,1
19 ROx/Nox/W 400 95,6 28,6 430 2,01 1355 21,4 8,5 68 88 159 248 214 461 80,8
20 B/ROx/Nox/W 320 96,4 26,7 461 1,72 1451 52,0 8,8 164 208 374 582 269 850 83,5
21 b/ROx/Nox/W 40 99,6 24,2 508 0,24 1601 99,6 10,3 314 340 612 952 406 1359 97,6
44
Table 3. Investment values gained on the basis of mathematical algorithm. (Author’s calculation)
Cb 10 €/t t 6000 h Bting 35 €/t
CC02 10 €/t z 10 a
oN
NOxc M€ 180 MW eot 0,08
bN
LWc 0,1 M€ 100 MW ebt 0,1
BN
Wc M€ 150 MW eBt 0,09
Regime CSO2 ηSO2 ηE bB qSO2 qCO2 ΔbB ΔqSO2 ΔqCO2 Cb CCO2 Cvar Cconst CΣ βSO2 CΣ Invest-
ment
3
mg/nm % % g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 % €/MWh M€
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 16
1 0 2626 70,8 30,1 409 12,52 1287 0,0 0,0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0 0 0,0
10 L 2338 74,0 29,6 416 11,33 1309 6,9 1,2 22 204 184 387 8 396 9,5 0,5 0,1
11 LW2 2132 76,3 29,3 420 10,44 1322 11,2 2,1 35 188 169 357 5 362 16,6 0,8 0,1
12 LW4 1943 78,4 28,8 427 9,68 1345 18,4 2,8 58 227 205 432 4 436 22,7 1,2 0,1
13 LW8 1780 80,2 28,2 436 9,06 1374 27,5 3,5 87 278 251 529 3 532 27,7 1,8 0,1
14 B 2135 76,3 29,7 414 10,32 1305 5,5 2,2 17 87 79 166 6 172 17,6 0,4 0,1
15 BL 1812 79,9 28,5 432 9,12 1359 22,9 3,4 72 236 213 449 4 453 27,2 1,5 0,1
16 BLW2 1763 80,4 28 439 9,04 1384 30,6 3,5 97 308 277 585 3 588 27,9 2,0 0,1
17 BLW6 1376 84,7 27,3 451 7,23 1419 41,9 5,3 132 277 250 527 2 530 42,3 2,8 0,1
18 bLW6 1133 87,4 24,9 494 6,53 1556 85,3 6,0 269 499 449 947 3 951 47,9 5,7 0,1
Table 4. Investment values gained on the basis of mathematical algorithm. (Author’s calculation)
Cb 10 €/t t 6000 h Bting 35 €/t
CC02 20 €/t z 10 a
oN
NOxc M€ 180 MW eot 0,08
bN
LWc 0,1 M€ 100 MW ebt 0,1
BN
Wc M€ 150 MW eBt 0,09
Invest-
Regime CSO2 ηSO2 ηE bB qSO2 qCO2 ΔbB ΔqSO2 ΔqCO2 Cb CCO2 Cvar Cconst CΣ βSO2 CΣ ment
mg/nm3 % % g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 % €/MWh M€
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 16
1 0 2626 70,8 30,1 409 12,52 1287 0,0 0,0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0 0 0,0
10 L 2338 74,0 29,6 416 11,33 1309 6,9 1,2 22 204 367 571 8 579 9,5 0,7 0,1
11 LW2 2132 76,3 29,3 420 10,44 1322 11,2 2,1 35 188 338 526 5 531 16,6 1,1 0,1
12 LW4 1943 78,4 28,8 427 9,68 1345 18,4 2,8 58 227 409 637 4 640 22,7 1,8 0,1
13 LW8 1780 80,2 28,2 436 9,06 1374 27,5 3,5 87 278 501 779 3 782 27,7 2,7 0,1
14 B 2135 76,3 29,7 414 10,32 1305 5,5 2,2 17 87 157 245 6 250 17,6 0,6 0,1
15 BL 1812 79,9 28,5 432 9,12 1359 22,9 3,4 72 236 426 662 4 666 27,2 2,3 0,1
16 BLW2 1763 80,4 28 439 9,04 1384 30,6 3,5 97 308 554 862 3 865 27,9 3,0 0,1
17 BLW6 1376 84,7 27,3 451 7,23 1419 41,9 5,3 132 277 499 777 2 779 42,3 4,1 0,1
18 bLW6 1133 87,4 24,9 494 6,53 1556 85,3 6,0 269 499 898 1396 3 1399 47,9 8,4 0,1
46
Table 5. Investment values gained on the basis of mathematical algorithm. (Author’s calculation)
Cb 10 €/t t 6000 h Bting 35 €/t
CC02 30 €/t z 10 a
oN
NOxc M€ 180 MW eot 0,08
bN
LWc 0,1 M€ 100 MW ebt 0,1
BN
Wc M€ 150 MW eBt 0,09
Invest-
Regime CSO2 ηSO2 ηE bB qSO2 qCO2 ΔbB ΔqSO2 ΔqCO2 Cb CCO2 Cvar Cconst CΣ βSO2 CΣ ment
mg/nm3 % % g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 €/tSO2 % €/MWh M€
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 16
1 0 2626 70,8 30,1 409 12,52 1287 0,0 0,0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,0 0 0,0
10 L 2338 74,0 29,6 416 11,33 1309 6,9 1,2 22 204 551 755 8 763 9,5 0,9 0,1
11 LW2 2132 76,3 29,3 420 10,44 1322 11,2 2,1 35 188 507 695 5 700 16,6 1,5 0,1
12 LW4 1943 78,4 28,8 427 9,68 1345 18,4 2,8 58 227 614 842 4 845 22,7 2,4 0,1
13 LW8 1780 80,2 28,2 436 9,06 1374 27,5 3,5 87 278 752 1030 3 1033 27,7 3,6 0,1
14 B 2135 76,3 29,7 414 10,32 1305 5,5 2,2 17 87 236 323 6 329 17,6 0,7 0,1
15 BL 1812 79,9 28,5 432 9,12 1359 22,9 3,4 72 236 638 875 4 878 27,2 3,0 0,1
16 BLW2 1763 80,4 28 439 9,04 1384 30,6 3,5 97 308 831 1139 3 1142 27,9 4,0 0,1
17 BLW6 1376 84,7 27,3 451 7,23 1419 41,9 5,3 132 277 749 1027 2 1029 42,3 5,4 0,1
18 bLW6 1133 87,4 24,9 494 6,53 1556 85,3 6,0 269 499 1346 1845 3 1848 47,9 11,1 0,1
47
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50
Thesis is based on the following papers:
Author’s contribution
51
Appendix 1. ”Impact of the CO2 trade on electricity producers depending on the
use of different energy sources in Estonia”.
53
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Appendix 6.
ELULOOKIRJELDUS
1. Isikuandmed
Ees- ja perekonnanimi Jüri Kleesmaa
Sünniaeg ja –koht 28.06.1952 Väike-Maarja, Lääne-Virumaa, Eesti
Kodakondsus Eesti
2. Kontaktandmed
Aadress Kastani 16B-2, Tallinn, Eesti
Telefon +371 5066357
E-posti aadress juri.kleesmaa@ttu.ee
3. Hariduskäik
Keel Tase
Eesti Emakeel
Inglise Hea
Vene Hea
Soome Hea
5. Täiendusõpe
139
6. Teenistuskäik
7. Teadustegevus
Artiklid:
140
Borovikov, V., Kleesmaa, J., Tiikma, T. 2005. Analysis of experimental
results of sonic cleaning system in oil shale boiler. Oil Shale, 22(4), 475–485.
Kleesmaa, J., Kruus, H., Tiikma, T., Vaht, A. 1999. Iru Elektrijaama
aurukatla nr. 2 konvektiivsete küttepindade akustilise puhastuse efektiivsus.
Keskkonnatehnika nr 6, lk 26–29.
8. Kaitstud lõputööd
9. Teadustöö põhisuunad
Konsultatsioonid:
141
2010, AS Viisnurk, Pärnu
AS-i Viisnurk koostootmisjaama ehitamise eeluuring
142
2008, Eesti Energia Põhivõrk, Tallinn
Eesti Energia Põhivõrgu gaasiturbiinelektrijaama ehitamise eeluuring
143
Appendix 7.
CURRICULUM VITAE
1. Personal data
Name Jüri Kleesmaa
Date and place of birth 28.06.1952, Väike-Maarja, Lääne-Viru County,
Estonia
2. Contact information
Address Kastani 16B-2, Tallinn, Estonia
Phone +372 5066357
E-mail juri.kleesmaa@ttu.ee
3. Education
Language Level
Estonian Mother tongue
English Good
Russian Good
Finnish Good
5. Special Courses
145
6. Professional Employment
7. Scientific work
Published articles:
146
Kleesmaa, J., Viiding, M., Latõšov, E. Implication for competitiveness of
Estonian energy-intensive industry after establishment of CO2 pricing from year
2013 onwards. Baltic Journal of Economics, autumn 2011. [Forthcoming]
Borovikov, V., Kleesmaa, J., Tiikma, T. 2005. Analysis of experimental
results of sonic cleaning system in oil shale boiler. Oil Shale, 22(4), 475–485.
Kleesmaa, J., Kruus, H., Tiikma, T., Vaht, A. 1999. Effectiveness of
acoustic cleaning system of heat surfaces of steam boiler at Iru Power Plant.
Environmental Technique, no 6, p 26–29.
8. Defended thesis
Consulting Assignments:
147
2010, Competition Department of Estonia, Tallinn
Expert estimation about boiler houses costs, technical solutions and operating
costs
148
2008, IRU PP, Maardu, Estonia
WtE EPC Tender Documentation preparation
149
KOKKUVÕTE
Euroopa Liit, mille koosseisu 1. maist 2004 kuulub ka Eesti, on seadnud energia
kasutamise alal oma peamiseks eesmärgiks kujundada lähimatel aastakümnetel
ühtne energia- ja keskkonnapoliitika, mis põhineb selgetel püüdlustel ja ajakaval
üleminekuks süsinikuvaesele nn rohelisele energiamajandusele ja energia
säästmisele. Energia otstarbekohasema kasutamise tingivad ka fossiilsete
energiaallikate kasutamisega kaasnevad suuremad keskkonnamõjud võrreldes
bioenergiaga.
Euroopa Komisjon eeltoodud ülesannete lahendamiseks esitas Euroopa
energiapoliitika dokumendi COM(2007) 1 (Brüssel 2007) eesmärgiga
suurendada Euroopa Liidu energiavarustuse kindlust, julgeolekut,
konkurentsivõimet ja võidelda kliimamuutuste vastu. Kavandatud eesmärkide
saavutamiseks võttis Euroopa Komisjon 2009. a vastu olulised regulatsioonid,
millega täiustati ja laiendati ühenduse kasvuhoonegaaside saastekvootidega
kauplemise süsteemi, edendatakse taastuvatest energiaallikatest toodetud energia
kasutamist ja primaarenergia tarbimist aastani 2020.
Vastavalt Euroopa Liidu vastu võetud keskkonnaregulatsioonidele on Eesti
loonud vabariikliku õigusruumi rohelise energiamajanduse edendamiseks ja
energia säästlikumaks kasutamiseks.
Eesti elektritootmine baseerub põhiliselt põlevkivienergial, st umbes 90%
Eestis kokku toodetud elektrienergiast moodustab kohalikust kütusest
põlevkivist toodetud elektrienergia. Kuigi põlevkivi kasutamine
elektritootmiseks Eesti kontekstis on kohaliku kütuse ja energiajulgeoleku
seisukohast vajalik, siis keskkonnakaitsest lähtuvalt on see kõrgete
emissioonitegurite tekitamisega keskkonda koormav.
Euroopa Liit seab oma keskkonnaalaste regulatsioonidega Eesti ette küllaltki
keerulised ülesanded põlevkivielektri asendamiseks teiste energiaallikatega, mis
vajavad oskusi nii tehniliselt kui ka majanduslikult otstarbekaid otsuseid vastu
võtta.
Kuna Eesti elektritootmine täna ei kindlusta Euroopa Liidu seadusandlusega
määratud keskkonnanõudeid ja Eesti viib sisse parasjagu erinevaid
reguleerimisviise, mis peaksid neid täitma, siis lähiajal on elektritootmises
oodata suuri muutusi.
Käesoleva viit artiklit ühendava artikli eesmärk on uurida majanduslikke ja
keskkonnareguleerimise mõjusid Eesti elektritootmisele perspektiivis aastani
2020. Artikkel hõlmab nelja meedet: süsinikdioksiidi heitkoguse ühikutega
kauplemist, soodustariife, keskkonnatasudega (sh tuhakäitlus ja emissioonidest
tingitud kulu) kaasnevat kulu ning tööstusheidete piirnormide mõju elektri
151
tootmisele. Iga esitatud uurimus on keskendunud konkreetsele juhtumile, kuid
siduvaks teemaks uurimuste vahel on regulatsioonide mõju elektritootmisele
Eestis.
Kokkuvõtva artiklitel baseeruva töö uurimisobjektiks on Eesti
elektritootmine ja seadusandlike aktide mõju selle struktuuri kujundamisele
aastani 2020. Lisaks uuritakse ka muid, elektritootmisega mitteseotud
energiamahukaid ettevõtteid seadusandlike aktidega loodud uues
tegutsemiskeskkonnas.
Elektritootmise parima stsenaariumi valik avaldub suuresti CO2 kaubanduse
mõju tulemusena, mis reguleerib lubatud heitkoguste kvootide hulgaga
elektritootmise portfelli mitmekesistamist kuluefektiivselt, võimaldades
omakorda ergutada tehnilist arengut.
Kütuste tootmisharu konkurentsivõimet mõjutab keskkonnatasude üha
suurenev määr. Elektritootmisele kinnitatud soodustariif on taastuvenergia
kasutuselevõtu tõhususe perspektiivist lähtudes põhjendatud, kuid see mõjutab
põhjendamatult palju tarbijahinda ja on ülekompenseeritud jaama võimsust
arvestades.
Euroopa Liiduga liitumislepingus on fikseeritud kohustus piirata 2012.
aastast alates SO2 heitmeid 25 000 tonnini aastas. Töötusheitmete direktiiv
kohustab oluliselt vähendama 2016. aastast alates atmosfääri eriheitmete SO2,
NOx ja lendtuha emissioone. See piirab elektritootmist Eestis.
Elektritootjate traditsiooniline arusaam keskkonnaregulatsioonidest nagu
atmosfääriheitmete piirnormid, saastetasud ja kasvuhoonegaaside kaubanduse
lubatud heitühikute kvoodid on, et need mõjutavad firmade konkurentsivõimet,
piiravad elektritootmist ja on elektritootmise seisukohalt pärssivad ning
mitteproduktiivsed. Atmosfääriheitmete piirnormid seavad rangeid nõudeid
tehnoloogia kasutamisele, saastetasud ja kaubanduskvoodid sunnivad
atmosfääriheitmetega tegelema ning avaldavad mõju tootmisprotsessi
kõrvalsaadustele, mis eelnevalt olid regulatsioonide mõjust vabad.
Konkurentsivõime reguleerimisel keskkonnaregulatsioonidega on
majandusteadlaste käsitlusel põhimõtteliselt kaks suunda: esimene väidab, et
keskkonnareguleerimine on konkurentsivõimele kahjulik (Oates, Palmer &
Portney, Simpson 1993) ning teine suund kinnitab, et keskkonnareguleerimine
parandab konkurentsivõimet juhul, kui see on mõistlikult rakendatud (Porter &
van der Linde, 1995). Empiirilised tulemused ei poolda ühte ega teist (Lanoie
2008). Antud uurimuse tulemused viitavad võrdlemisi väikestele muutustele
energiatootmises.
Elektrijaama toodang sõltub aasta turusituatsioonist ja seepärast on keeruline
aasta elektritoodangu mahtu prognoosida. Elektrituru regulatsioon peab tagama
Eesti tootmise struktuuri mitmekesisuse. Meil jätkub endal tootmisvõimsust ilma
rangete keskkonnaregulatsioonideta, kui mujalt pole võimalik elektrit odavamalt
osta. Siiski tekib ka odavama elektri sisseostmise korral – näiteks Venemaalt –
õigustatud küsimus, kas vastavussertifikaat on nõuetekohane. Vabaturul, kus
kolmandatest riikidest imporditakse odavamat elektrit ja neile ei rakendu
152
Euroopa Liidu süsinikupuhta elektritootmise nõuded, on elektritootjad
ebavõrdses konkurentsis.
2020. aastaks tehtud prognooside kohaselt, täiendavalt arengukavas toodud
aastani 2018, peaks olukord põhimõtteliselt muutuma: põlevkivil rajaneva
elektritootmise osatähtusus väheneb umbes 40%-ni, taastuvenergia osatähtsus
aga suureneb ligikaudu 31%-ni.
Euroopa Liidu kasvuhoonegaaside kaubanduse direktiivist lähtuvalt seab
elektrimajanduse arengukava parim stsenaarium uued tingimused kütuste
kasutamisele − keskkonda saastavamad kütused nagu põlevkivi ja turvas
tõrjutakse kütuseturult ja asendatakse keskkonnasõbralikumate kütustega nagu
taastuvad energiaallikad ja looduslik gaas. Analüüs näitab, et ilma
keskkonnaregulatsioonideta on soodustatud kütuste kasutuse järjestus hinna järgi
järgmine − põlevkivi, puit, turvas, looduslik gaas. Kui hinnale lisanduvad
keskkonnatasud ja CO2 kvoodihind, siis kasutusjärjestus muutub − puit, turvas,
põlevkivi ja looduslik gaas. Regulatsiooni tulemusena langeb eelistus taastuvate
kütuste kasutuselevõtule võrreldes fossiilsete kütustega.
Kulude suurenedes sõltub majandussektori konkurentsivõime CO2 eraldumise
intensiivsusest, võimalusest kanda lisanduvad kulud üle müügihinnale ning
tootmistsüklis süsinikuheitmete vähendamiseks rakendatud meetmetest. Eestis
toodetakse enamik elektrienergiat kohalikust põlevkivist, mida on külluses.
Praegu investeeritakse energiaplokkide põlevkivi tolmpõletuskatelde
moderniseerimisse ja püütakse selle poole, et täita pärast 2016. aastat kehtima
hakkavaid rangemaid keskkonnanõudeid. Energiaplokkidele ehitatakse uusi
keevkihtkatlaid, kus rakendatakse parimat turul saadaolevat tehnoloogiat. Seda
arvestades võib järeldada, et CO2 heitmete hinnast tulenev muutuvkulude üldine
muutus Eesti energiasektoris võib jääda suhteliselt tagasihoidlikuks: 5%
lähedale.
Kuigi Hussen (2004) väitis, et heitmekaubandus peaks soodustama uudse
tehnoloogia kasutuselevõttu, ei ole Euroopa Liidu heitmekaubandussüsteemi
katsetamise ajal ega esimestel kauplemisperioodidel suuremaid tehnoloogilisi
uuendusi tehtud. Üheks selgituseks võib olla asjaolu, et esialgu jagati kvoote
ülemäära palju. See surus kvoodi hinna alla ega virgutanud investeerima uude
tehnoloogiasse. Muude põhjustena võib nimetada tuleviku jaotuspõhimõtete
suhtes valitsevat määramatust, liiga lühikesi kauplemisperioode ning süsiniku
lekkeohtu.
Taastuvelektri tootmiseks makstavate toetuste süsteem on Eestis tõhusalt
toetanud koostootmisvõimsuste rajamist − kui 2007. a oli taastuvatest
energiallikatest toodetud elektri osakaal 1,75% kogu elektrienergia tarbimisest,
siis 2010. aastal moodustas see juba 9,7% kavandatud 5,1%-i asemel.
Halduskulud on olnud väikesed ning säästetud välismõjudest tingitud kulud on
ületanud toetuse suuruse: välismõjust tingitud kulu põlevkivi kasutamisel on
69,2 eurot megavatt-tunni kohta, puitkütusel ja turbal vastavalt 9,7 ja 25,8.
Siiski on Eesti toetused suurenenud kiires tempos 0,1 eurosendilt kilovatt-
tunni kohta 0,8 eurosendile kilovatt-tunni kohta aastatel 2007 kuni 2010 ning
tarbijad on need kulud kollektiivselt kinni maksnud, samal ajal kui tulu saavad
153
suured koostootmisjaamad. 2007 ja 2011 on toetuste juurutamisega seotud kulu
kasvanud 6 miljonilt eurolt 55 miljoni euroni. Need kulud katab tarbija elektri
hinna kaudu. Toetusega kaasnev kulu moodustas 2010. a umbes 10% tarbija
eelarvest.
Peale jaotusega seotud probleemide on muidki põhjusi toetuse kasutamise
kohta. Kahe koostootmisjaama kohta tehtud uurimus koostootmisjaamade
elektritootmise keskmise kulu ja omahinnaga on näidanud, et praegune toetuste
süsteem ei ole tõhus. 2010. aastaks seatud eesmärgid on ületatud ja tõhususe
seisukohast ei saa seda pidada kuluefektiivseks. Uurimustulemustest selgub veel,
et ressursse kasutatakse sellise tootmise toetamiseks, mis on ka toetuseta tulus
(IRR 19%) (Kleesmaa jt 2011).
Kuigi praegused toetused on halduse seisukohast atraktiivsed, saab jaama
suurusest sõltuva omahinna suurte erinevuste alusel väita, et toetusi on vaja
eristada jaama suurust arvestades. Alla 10 MWhel (Latõšov 2011) võimsusega
koostootmisjaamade omahind on tunduvalt kõrgem kui suurtel jaamadel ning et
mida väiksem on jaam, seda kiirem on omahinna tõus. Toetuse lahutamisel
omahinnast muutub pilt veelgi huvitavamaks: toetus katab 25 MWhel
võimsusega jaamade elektri tootmise omahinna ning kui toetus välja jätta,
sarnaneb jaama omahind toetust saava 4 MWhel võimsusega jaama omahinnaga.
Need tähelepanekud kinnitavad uurimistöö tulemusi ja viitavad sellele, et
praegu kehtivat toetust saades on suured jaamad ülekompenseeritud, toetus
väikestele jaamadele ei pruugi aga olla piisav.
Subsiidiumide ja maksude ning muude hinnakujundusmeetmete suurim
puudus on see, et nende mõju ulatus ei ole selge. Eestis nagu paljudes teisteski
Euroopa Liidu riikides kasutatakse toetusi kvantitatiivsete eesmärkide
saavutamiseks. Eesmärgiga sobivat toetust ei ole kerge valida ja seepärast on
vaja toetuste regulatsioon uuesti läbi vaadata. Läbivaatamine toob paratamatult
kaasa investeerimisprobleemid. Seega on toetuspõhise reguleerimise puhul vaja
leida kompromiss läbivaatamisest tulenevate probleemide ja kulukate toetuste
jätkuva maksmise vahel.
Euroopa Liidu energiapoliitika kinnitatud energia- ja kliimapaketiga
aastateks 2013–2020 määrati eesmärgiks 20%-ne kasvuhoonegaaside (töös
käsitletud ainult CO2) vähenemine, taastuvenergia osatähtsuse suurenemine 20%
võrra ja primaarenergia tarbimise vähenemine 20% ulatuses.
Vastuvõetud keskkonnaregulatsioonide mõju tulemusena viie
uurimistulemuse alusel saab järeldada, et Eesti elektritootmises on oodata suuri
muutusi, mille tulemusena kaks püstitatud eesmärki – CO2 vähendamine ja
taastuvenergia kasutamise suurendamine 20% ulatuses – on saavutatavad aastaks
2020.
Regulatsioonid avaldavad enim survet kohalikust kütusest põlevkivist
toodetud elektrile, kuna põlevkivi keemilis-füüsikaliste omaduste tõttu on see
kütus ümbritsevat keskkonda koormav.
Euroopa Liidu poolt käivitatud CO2 kvoodikaubandusel on suur mõju Eesti
elektritootmise portfelli mitmekesistamisel. Eelistatumad on CO2-vabad
energiaallikad nagu puit ja tuul.
154
Taastuvkütustest soosituimaks osutub puit ja fossiilsetest gaaskütus.
Turbakütuse laialdasemat kasutamist elektritootmisel piiravad tema kõrge CO2
emissioonimäär, suur tuhasisaldus ja pikaajaline looduslik taastumine. Teisalt on
turvas kohalik kütus, elektritootjale turbast ektritootmise tõhusal režiimil
makstakse toetust 32 eurot megavatt-tunni eest ja aktiivne varu tööstuslikuks
kaevandamiseks on 775 miljonit tonni.
Toetuste juurutamisele avaldavad positiivset mõju taastuvenergia õigusaktid.
Tehnoloogia arendamise seisukohalt jääb regulatsioon neutraalseks, sest uut
tehnoloogiat ei arendata, vaid kasutusele võetakse juba olemasolev.
Tööstusheitmete direktiiv seab keerulisse olukorda põlevkivi tolmpõletuse
tehnoloogiaga toodetava elektri. Juhul kui aastaks 2016 ei ole energiaplokid
varustatud vajalike puhastusseadmetega, mis tagavad direktiivist tulenevate
nõuete täitmise, siis tuleb plokid sulgeda. Taoline olukord aktiveerib
energiaettevõtete juhtide, spetsialistide ja teadlaste tegevust lahenduste
leidmisel, et tagada energiaplokkide töö ka peale 2016. aastat.
Keskkonnatasude pidev suurendamine mõjub Eesti elektritootmisele
soodsalt. Kui 1990-ndate alguses oli keskkonnatasude mõju nn tähelepanu
juhtiv, siis tänapäeval mõjutab nende suurus ettevõtete juhte keskkonnakaitse
seisukohast lähtuvalt tootmisprotsessi rohkem analüüsima kütuste eelistuse järgi,
juurutama uut tehnikat emissiooni vähendamiseks ja tegelema toodangu
kulukohtadega konkurentsvõime tagamisel.
Põlevkivienergeetika tulevik sõltub sellest, kuidas suudame täita euronõudeid
ökoloogias. Kui suudame seda teha odavamalt kui kivisöejaamad (Öpik 1987),
tagame põlevkivienergeetika jätkusuutlikkuse Eestis. Kui aga asume
kivisöejaamade ökoloogilisi tehnoloogiaid kopeerima, nõuab see poolteist korda
suuremaid investeeringuid ja lisab 30% riski.
155
ABSTRACT
The goal of this article is to serve as a connecting link between five articles in
order to put into perspective and to study economic and environmental effects of
electricity production in Estonia until the year 2020. The article embraces four
measures: trading in the carbon dioxide emission quotas, Feed-in-Tariffs, costs
originating from environmental charges (including ash handling and emission-
related costs) and the impact of industrial emission limit values on electricity
production. Every presented research work focuses on a certain case study;
whereas the effects of regulations on the electricity production in Estonia form a
connecting theme between these research works.
The object of the research work based on the above referred to articles is
Estonian electricity production and the effect of legislative acts on the shaping of
its structure until the year 2020. In addition, other energy-intensive enterprises
not related to electricity production are observed in a new activity environment
created due to the application of legislative acts.
The main research tasks are, on the assumption that the best scenario of the
Development Plan of the Estonian Electricity Sector will be implemented, to
give a quantitative assessment of the CO2 emission by taking into account actual
operation hours, and to compare the result with the objective set out in the EU
Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading System; to assess the impact of additional
costs arising from environmental charges, ash handling and the price of CO2
quota on the competitiveness of the industries of such fuels as oil shale, wood,
peat and natural gas in the fuels market in 2015; to assess, on the basis of the
economic activities of two power plants, the application of Feed-in-Tariffs, and
to explain whether the current tariff is justified from the perspectives of
efficiency and economic productivity, and how it influences consumer prices; to
analyse the possibilities of using the primary method BLW for the purpose of
achieving the permitted SO2 emission level established in the European Union
environmental regulations for oil shale combustion.
Based on the results of five research works, it can be concluded that, due to
the effect of the adopted regulations, great changes are expected to take place in
Estonian electricity generation. Regulations have the greatest pressure on the
electricity produced from the local fuel oil shale. The CO2 quota trade launched
by the European Union has a large impact on the diversification of the electricity
production portfolio. Such CO2-free energy sources as wood and wind have a
more preferable position. Wood appears to be the most favourable fuel among
renewable fuels, and gas fuel the most favoured fuel among fossil fuels. Peat
with its large CO2 emissions and ash content, slow natural process in the nature
makes utilization complicated, but electricity production based on peat fuel
receives FIT, is local fuel and has sufficient reserves. Legislative acts on
renewable energy influence the introduction of supports in a positive way. The
regulation remains neutral from the perspective of technological development,
since no new technology is being developed; instead the existing technology is
being made use of. The directive on industrial emissions puts the pulverised oil
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shale combustion technology-based electricity production into a complicated
situation. If, by 2016, energy units are not supplied with necessary cleaning
equipment, which ensures fulfilment of the requirements arising from the
directive, the relevant units will have to be shut down. Such a situation motivates
the management teams of energy enterprises, specialists and researchers to take
action for finding solutions, in order to guarantee the operation of energy units
after 2016. A continuous increase in environmental charges has a favourable
impact on Estonian electricity production. At the beginning of the 1990ies the
aim of environmental charges was to draw attention to the topic, but at present
the size of charges influences management teams of enterprises towards carrying
out more in-depth analysis, from the perspective of environmental protection, of
their production process by preference of fuels, towards introducing new
technology with the aim of reducing emission, and towards dealing with
production-related expenses in order to ensure competitiveness.
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DISSERTATIONS DEFENDED AT
TALLINN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY ON
ECONOMICS
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